Bolt No ICE

[begreen]

Looks like Hyundai is entering this market later this year
https://electrek.co/2018/03/28/hyundai-kona-electric-compact-suv-us-range/

 

[woodgeek]

Looks like Hyundai is entering this market later this year
https://electrek.co/2018/03/28/hyundai-kona-electric-compact-suv-us-range/

As is often case, they have announced all the specs except the price. That and the volume made will make all the difference.

 

[Ashful]

I wanted to like this, but couldn't quite push the button.

Well, it was meant to be half tongue-in-cheek, while leaving you guessing at which half that is.

It won’t be a decade, before anyone buying new cars has at least one EV in their stable. I’ll always have a big honking ICE, for some sunny day top-down fun, but even I’m eyeing those Tesla sedans for our next daily driver. For those of us who don’t need a lot of range on a regular basis, they’re really better in almost every way, except that pleasing auditory feedback.

 

[begreen]

As is often case, they have announced all the specs except the price. That and the volume made will make all the difference.

The design looks like it is more targeted for Korean sales. Interior looks like it would be appealing to North Koreans.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

I Obviously, the best alternative is to be careful not to run the Bolt to 0.

Dont it have a "limp" mode with a few extra miles?

 

[jebatty]

Spring has finally arrived in MN and with that mild temps, 40's-60F daytime, although night still dips to below 32F. Also with the rising temps comes the expanding range of the Bolt. Two days ago, on a full charge, travel was 223 miles with 45 miles still showing as available range, for total range greater than the 238 miles spec. I was scoping out camping sites for some bicycle camping planned for this summer. Total miles now 3700+.

The only change I've made is to turn on "Hilltop Reserve" when I don't need a full battery charge for the next day's travel. Hilltop Reserve does not give a full charge but leaves some battery capacity for immediate regenerative charging. Based on what I've read, the Li-ion battery is likely to last longer if pushing to maximum charge is limited. As far as discharge is involved, that moves around quite a bit based on the travel. Generally I charge every night, sometimes during the day, so that the next day has a well charged battery.

Also, and I don't know whether or not this makes a difference in battery capacity/useful life, I slow down charging to 240V/16A rather than 32A when the slower rate will provide a sufficient charge to cover the next day's expected use. It seems logical that a slower rate will put less stress on the battery.

 

[woodgeek]

Also, and I don't know whether or not this makes a difference in battery capacity/useful life, I slow down charging to 240V/16A rather than 32A when the slower rate will provide a sufficient charge to cover the next day's expected use. It seems logical that a slower rate will put less stress on the battery.

I like not charging to 100%, i.e. using hilltop reserve to preserve battery life.

I would NOT sweat the 32A-16A L2 difference.

Basically, during charging you are cramming lithium ions between the atomic layers of a graphite electrode, where they complex with some other ions (like Cobalt). This cramming causes the material to expand and contract slightly (lithium ions are the smallest possible, so you can cram the most). Ultimately, this expansion and contraction causes fatigue and cracking that deactivates that little hunk of graphite. Intuitively, most of this mechanical damage is at the two limits, when the Lithium ions are at a minimum (depleted) and a maximum (100% SOC).

The bolt battery is IIRC a 67 kWh battery (0-100% 'true' SOC) whose charge controller probably only lets you run from 3-93% true SOC and tells you that 3% is empty (0% SOC on dash), and 93% is full (100% SOC). If you are running 'hilltop' then you are reducing the max true SOC you use to 82-83%.

As for charging speed, the issues are gradients of ions (they can't move fast enough, esp at higher SOC) in the electrode causing stress, and thermal limits. I don't think either one is significant <0.25C (four hour charging time or longer) Or <15 kW. I wouldn't bother charging at 3.5 kW versus 7.

 

[spirilis]

My thought is, for cars with active thermal mgmt that can employ the A/C to chill the battery coolant, I don't concern myself with charge rate much. I don't pause much before DCFC either.

 

[woodgeek]

The more thoughtful answer is looking at the vehicle engineered DCFC 'taper'. The Bolt, like all EVs will reduce the rate at which it accepts power in a SOC-dependent way.

From 0-40% SOC, it will charge at up to about 65 kW (about 1.1C), then step down to 42 kW from 40-55%, then down from there...and drop to about L2 speeds (10 kW) for the last from 85-90% up to 100%. So it takes 7X longer to go 90-100% than it does to go from 10-20%!

This is a poorly understood 'fine print' issue that non-EV people often get surprised by when doing roadtrips. They max charge speed they tell you is usually only 0-50% SOC. So the ideal (fastest) road trip mode is to (1) start full at 100%, (2) drive nearly the full range to close to 10% SOC remaining (3) DCFC to only ~60% (4) drive only HALF the stated range of the vehicle (back to 10% SOC), repeat (3) and (4) stopping every HALF of stated range. For the LEAF this would be 30 miles, and a 15 minute stop (and there aren't that many compatible DCFCs). For the Bolt this means stopping for 30 mins every 100 miles, with current '50 kW' DCFCs (if available). New DCFCs are coming on line starting next week that are '150 kW' rated, so when those are built out (slated for mid-2019), it will be a 20 minute stop every 100 miles, more or less.

I think the Bolt taper is VERY conservative and limiting of charge speed (and is 'bad feature' of the Bolt)...my LEAF would charge at almost 2C up to 80%! That said, they would not have built a 7.2kW onboard charger if that was a concern.

 

[woodgeek]

edit: @woodgeek, that plug kit and inflator will be useless when you hit one of our typical PA potholes, and suffer the too-common bent rim or blown sidewall. I seem to see that, far more often than nail holes, in shouldered cars today.

This was prescient. Wife hit an 8' wide strip of missing pavement about a month ago. Car still drove (no TPMS pressure gauge on the winter wheels), then she noticed that one side was getting flat...fortunately, she was within a mile of our Chevy dealership service center.

She ubered home, I drove the summer wheels over there and they mounted them for me.

Damage: One steelie wheel was badly bent, leaks and the tire sidewall destroyed..total loss. The other front wheel is also bent, but the tire is holding pressure. Dealer suggested replacing the wheel and keeping the tire, probably about $250 all told.

 

[blades]

Hate those concave speed bumps during winter months we get magically appearing convex ones and they do not melt in the spring.

 

[Ashful]

The more thoughtful answer is looking at the vehicle engineered DCFC 'taper'. The Bolt, like all EVs will reduce the rate at which it accepts power in a SOC-dependent way.

From 0-40% SOC, it will charge at up to about 65 kW (about 1.1C), then step down to 42 kW from 40-55%, then down from there...and drop to about L2 speeds (10 kW) for the last from 85-90% up to 100%. So it takes 7X longer to go 90-100% than it does to go from 10-20%!

This is a poorly understood 'fine print' issue that non-EV people often get surprised by when doing roadtrips. They max charge speed they tell you is usually only 0-50% SOC. So the ideal (fastest) road trip mode is to (1) start full at 100%, (2) drive nearly the full range to close to 10% SOC remaining (3) DCFC to only ~60% (4) drive only HALF the stated range of the vehicle (back to 10% SOC), repeat (3) and (4) stopping every HALF of stated range. For the LEAF this would be 30 miles, and a 15 minute stop (and there aren't that many compatible DCFCs). For the Bolt this means stopping for 30 mins every 100 miles, with current '50 kW' DCFCs (if available). New DCFCs are coming on line starting next week that are '150 kW' rated, so when those are built out (slated for mid-2019), it will be a 20 minute stop every 100 miles, more or less.

I think the Bolt taper is VERY conservative and limiting of charge speed (and is 'bad feature' of the Bolt)...my LEAF would charge at almost 2C up to 80%! That said, they would not have built a 7.2kW onboard charger if that was a concern.

Misunderstood or not, it still makes the EV a poor choice for road trips. Stopping for 30 minutes every 100 miles is not a feasible mode for anyone trying to cover distance in the great expanse of our country, excepting maybe New England, where the distance between attractions may be less than elsewhere.

 

[begreen]

Misunderstood or not, it still makes the EV a poor choice for road trips. Stopping for 30 minutes every 100 miles is not a feasible mode for anyone trying to cover distance in the great expanse of our country, excepting maybe New England, where the distance between attractions may be less than elsewhere.

Why we have the Volt. All local driving is 100% electric, yet we can head out on a trip without anxiety. This is particularly important when heading to eastern WA and OR where charging stations are not common and distances are longer. And long mountain grades up to the passes really suck the juice up. The bonus is that the Volt is a really nice highway vehicle too. It's a big improvement from our '06 Prius.

That said, the Bolt has enough range for 90% of all our driving. We could go to Vancouver or Portland on a charge, so no issue if a two car family.

 

[woodgeek]

Misunderstood or not, it still makes the EV a poor choice for road trips. Stopping for 30 minutes every 100 miles is not a feasible mode for anyone trying to cover distance in the great expanse of our country, excepting maybe New England, where the distance between attractions may be less than elsewhere.

Two things help...the first 200 miles do not need a stop, and charging to full at your destination (e.g. a hotel). In the end, it sounds a lot worse than it is.

The 2019 Bolt is slated to have a 80 kWh battery, so 260-270 miles highway range, and will likely accept faster charging (like up to 120 or 150 kW). This would mean stopping every 120-150 miles for 15 minutes or so, or every 240 miles for an hour (like a meal). This is basically where Tesla's are at now (best case).

 

[jebatty]

Given current range options and limited charging infrastructure, both in location and in number of stations, an EV probably is not a good choice for most single vehicle families. But for a two vehicle family, one being a gasoline vehicle, an EV can be an excellent choice for most families. My wife drives our gas fueled vehicle, mainly because that is "her" car, a bit of luxury with an Avalon. Almost all of her driving is local, the exception being road trips and trips to Minneapolis-St. Paul to visit family, and on these we travel together along with our two dogs. I drive the Bolt EV, and all of this driving is also local, and often with my wife. The dogs have not yet traveled in the Bolt.

The other looming issue not only is location but also quantity of DCFC stations. Almost all in the area where I live are single vehicle stations. And if the station is in use, or other EVs waiting to charge, or the station is out of service, what then? Although I have not yet experienced charge stations delays, I can see this coming until infrastructure is more built out, but in the meantime, charging is not like driving up to a gas pump at a station with many pumps, fueling and leaving in 5 minutes. A wait at a gas station is neither common nor long. A long wait at a charging station likely is problematical in most cases.

After 3 months of owning the EV, my range anxiety now is near 0. I come and go when and as often as I like. When home mid-day, with a morning and/or late afternoon/evening travel need, I plug-in to take full advantage of the PV system by using pure solar energy -- this usually will not result in a full charge, and a full charge is not needed. If based on next day travel need for a full charge, I charge at night, either with limited full charge (hill top reserve on) or a 100% charge, as required. This driving and charging routine is near effortless.

The ideal for both my wife and I would be two EVs, with an available shared gas vehicle for the family trips and probably a rental vehicle with a trailer hitch for our small tear drop travel trailer trips and for the long road trips. Still figuring this out because right now we also have a 3rd vehicle, a 2007 Toyota Camry, which is gas and has a trailer hitch, that vehicle just to handle the travel trailer camping trips, maybe 2-5 per season. I don't like owning that 3rd vehicle, it is used very little, but I also don't want to give up camping.

Solutions to eliminate the third vehicle are appreciated.

 

[Ashful]

Given current range options and limited charging infrastructure, both in location and in number of stations, an EV probably is not a good choice for most single vehicle families. But for a two vehicle family, one being a gasoline vehicle, an EV can be an excellent choice for most families.

This is the direction I see us eventually going, but given that we typically find it least expensive to just buy our vehicles outright (cash sale, no leasing) and tend to keep them a decade at a time, I’m not sure I’m ready to jump in until we reach more of a plateau in the technology. It seems an EV purchased today is going to be dramatically out classed by one built three years from now, which really favors a leasing relationship.

Example: the Tesla X P100D is a sweet little family SUV, but how might those specs improve by the 2022 model year? That’s a mighty big pill to swallow, watching it’s trade-in value drop dramatically after a new generation of their technology is introduced.

I’m all fairness, I haven’t actually looked at the depreciation curve of Tesla, versus any ICE, I’m just going on instinct.

 

[spirilis]

The other looming issue not only is location but also quantity of DCFC stations. Almost all in the area where I live are single vehicle stations. And if the station is in use, or other EVs waiting to charge, or the station is out of service, what then? Although I have not yet experienced charge stations delays, I can see this coming until infrastructure is more built out, but in the meantime, charging is not like driving up to a gas pump at a station with many pumps, fueling and leaving in 5 minutes. A wait at a gas station is neither common nor long. A long wait at a charging station likely is problematical in most cases.

I am encouraged by one local initiative; in MD, the state is working to expand DCFC infrastructure (funding going through a firm in Baltimore w/ engineers experienced at installing these things, called EVI) throughout the state and the upcoming installations starting this year will be 4-pedestal installations with the "intent" behind the power grid-connection to support future 120-150kW upgrades (possibly with load-sharing hardware, like what ChargePoint announced a short while ago). I learned of this after talking to one of the guys at EVI over the phone.

EVI's current installations are (mostly, except newer installations) 1-pedestal like you see most places. EVgo installations are usually just 1 SAE Combo and either 1 or 2 CHAdeMO, but they're expensive.

Example of one of their recent 4-pedestal installs: https://www.plugshare.com/location/134788

 

[woodgeek]

This is the direction I see us eventually going, but given that we typically find it least expensive to just buy our vehicles outright (cash sale, no leasing) and tend to keep them a decade at a time, I’m not sure I’m ready to jump in until we reach more of a plateau in the technology. It seems an EV purchased today is going to be dramatically out classed by one built three years from now, which really favors a leasing relationship.

Example: the Tesla X P100D is a sweet little family SUV, but how might those specs improve by the 2022 model year? That’s a mighty big pill to swallow, watching it’s trade-in value drop dramatically after a new generation of their technology is introduced.

I’m all fairness, I haven’t actually looked at the depreciation curve of Tesla, versus any ICE, I’m just going on instinct.

Fair enough. Having owned a 22 kWh 'pure' EV and and now a 60 kWh 'pure' EV, I would say it is night and day what 3.5 years gets you. That said...I don't expect my next EV will have another factor of 3X in battery capacity and range. It won't have a 180 kWh battery and a 600 mile HW range (I don't think ).

I think there is a mighty fine sweet spot in the 80-100 kWh range (for light duty vehicles)...lots of HP, good range, good DCFC charging speed, can accept 100% of braking energy for regen, battery life works out to be >200k miles (if engineered well).

So the only problem with the MX P100D is the price. You will get a very similar car in 2022 for less than half the price, or a more lux one for 2/3rds.

 

[woodgeek]

Behold Electrify America...

https://electrek.co/2018/05/03/electrify-america-map-charging-stations-network/

Phase 1 is to be completed by the end of 2019....



FYI, the 350 kW stations are for EVs with 800V batteries (that currently don't exist). Current EVs with 400V batteries (nominal) will charge at 150 KW (if they can accept it, the 2017-8 Bolt limits at 80 kW).

 

[begreen]

This is the direction I see us eventually going, but given that we typically find it least expensive to just buy our vehicles outright (cash sale, no leasing) and tend to keep them a decade at a time, I’m not sure I’m ready to jump in until we reach more of a plateau in the technology. It seems an EV purchased today is going to be dramatically out classed by one built three years from now, which really favors a leasing relationship.

We've always bought our cars outright, never leased. Someone here (woodgeek or peakbagger?) suggested leasing when I got the Volt. I didn't and was wrong. Compared to the Prius, the Volt's resale price has dropped fairly sharply. This has happened to the Leaf as well. If I buy another leading edge car I will either lease new or buy a lease return. Technology is changing too rapidly in the auto world. As vehicles go autonomous, it won't even make sense to own a car for many.

 

[begreen]

Behold Electrify America...

https://electrek.co/2018/05/03/electrify-america-map-charging-stations-network/

Phase 1 is to be completed by the end of 2019....

View attachment 226402

FYI, the 350 kW stations are for EVs with 800V batteries (that currently don't exist). Current EVs with 400V batteries (nominal) will charge at 150 KW (if they can accept it, the 2017-8 Bolt limits at 80 kW).

That's good progress. Just stay out of the Dakotas.

 

[jebatty]

Lots of great input. I too have followed buy used, 2-4 years old, and keep. In fact our 2007 Camry we just bought in Feb 2018 had 162,000 miles on the odometer. The Bolt is the first car we have bought new since 1986.

I agree that the Bolt likely will be [Ashful] "dramatically out classed by one built three years from now, which really favors a leasing relationship." But I decided to buy rather than lease because the Bolt does cover 100% of local driving and we will be able to keep it for a long time, plus at my soon to be 71 years of age, due to health or other reasons (the longevity tables say I should make it to 94 years) I might not have the opportunity to enjoy an EV the way I do now. It's fun to be a moderately early adopter and our goal to drive our fossil energy usage to near 0 has nearly been achieved. A leased Bolt probably would have met the same goals, but occasionally a possibly frivolous, non-economic decision better fills a sense of well being.

Incidentally, my wife told me last evening that she agrees we should sell the 2011 Avalon and keep the 2007 Toyota for camping and long distance travel. Still going to wait awhile before executing on this decision.

 

[Ashful]

So the only problem with the MX P100D is the price. You will get a very similar car in 2022 for less than half the price, or a more lux one for 2/3rds.

Exactly. Here’s to hoping Tesla isn’t the only one hitting similar performance numbers, in the near future.

I suspect a large fraction of that price is driven by their costly R&D in the autonomous vehicle tech, in which I not only lack any interest, I absolutely abhor the idea of spending my car dollars to support such an effort.

Today, some of us gripe that our favorite cars are not available with a manual transmission, anymore. Fifteen years from now, will we be lamenting similarly about the steering wheel?

 

[woodgeek]

Re Tesla, I hate to make a tired analogy, but it really is like Apple, with 2018 corresponding to the early 90s.

Apple really DID innovate the OS and GUI, starting in the early 80s, the first commercial product with key modern features. That vision and innovation brought in a bunch of early adopters who were willing to pay a ~30% premium for a completely unique product. And who remained loyal for a long time. And who were willing to overlook quite a few flaws.

And maxed out Apple's market share in the single digits percentage.

And almost went bankrupt in the late 90s, and was highly shorted after Win95 and lower-priced competition capped their market share.

I got lectured by some very smart people in 1991 that real computers didn't need mice, never would, macs were toys, and would be doorstops in three years.

The macs from 1993 did connect to the internet (and were pioneering in their ease of internet use)...but they didn't come with web browsers or wifi.

------------------------------------------------------

There is nothing magical about Tesla's tech or IP....the Roadster was all off the shelf technology like the Apple II, just combined in a new way, and handbuilt in a garage.

I too am no fan of autonomous vehicles, AVs, probably just showing my age. They will come, and they will be revolutionary, but it might take a while, and need tech like lidar NOT being built into current Tesla's.

Remember that Apple was the first to sell computers with wifi. I set up my first wireless router in 2003, so my wife could surf from the couch after giving birth to our second child. My tech savvy colleages thought that was the stupidest thing they ever heard of in 2003! I took and set up a wireless router with me when we rented a beach house for two weeks in 2005...and my bro was basically telling his friends about his crazy brother and ROFL for years afterwards.

The way we use computers was changed forever first by the advent of wifi (not tethered to a desk in the 'computer room') so we could have ubiquitous internet in out lives at home....and this was the precursor to ubiquitous internet away from home too (smartphones).

-------------------------------------------------------

So if its 1993 now, the 2017 Bolt is Windows 3.1 (not as good as a Mac II), the 2019 Bolt MIGHT be Windows 95. And the web doesn't really exist yet, so sales volume is hurt by lack of easy to use critical infrastructure.

That vehicle infrastructure...ubiquitous and easy fast charging, is going to get built out over the next ten years, and then the speed/convenience will improve, like how we had initial mass adoption of dial up, and then all switched to broadband.

Ten years from now, when that infrastructure is in place, we will have lots of EVs and AVs and get cheap transportation as a service TaaS, which will change how we all use cars, like how wifi changed how we use computers. Old folks will still use the old model (buying and driving ICE and EV cars), like how my parents had a giant steel-cased desktop wired to a modem in 2005.

Twenty years from now, once we are all aok with ubiquitous TaaS, a new product will emerge that is superior to AVs, like smartphones taking off in 2013. Maybe that will be Autonomous Aerial Vehicles, or AAVs, implemented solely as TaaS.

Let's wait and see.

 

[jebatty]

It was sometime in the 1980's when I took a trip to Hawaii, brought along my disk drive laptop and a very slow (300 baud?) dial-up modem, and communicated with my office in Minneapolis, which would send me letters and documents for my approval, I would edit as needed, and then send them back with final approval. Then the 1200 and next the 2400 baud, and when the 9600 arrived ... well faster and faster.

It nearly always takes very creative minds and extremely risk acceptance investors, accompanied by early adopters, to move technology forward. It seems to still take about 20 years for an entirely new technology to move from the lab to the mass market. New technology always needs a wide ranging and time consuming support structure to make this move. Our world today faces huge threats and opportunities, any one of which can alter the trajectory of the future in ways yet to be seen.

In the meantime, I don't see the Bolt and other EVs as an entirely new technology, but rather as a material modification of an existing technology: vehicle with driver or driver assist driving with four wheels on roads. In the meantime the Bolt for me is both pretty good and good enough to meet needs which are fairly certain into the near future.