Uncle Joe and the EPA have been busy....
The Biden administration has passed new car emission rules for the next 8 years, that some are hailing as a slowdown, and others are saying are the toughest crackdown on emissions ever!
LATimes:
https://www.latimes.com/environment...ration-speeds-transition-to-electric-vehicles
EPA Administrator Michael S. Regan said at a news conference that the rule marks the “strongest vehicle pollution technology standard ever finalized in United States history.”
“These technology standards for model years 2027 through 2032 will avoid more than 7 billion tons of carbon pollution,” Regan said. “That’s four times the total carbon pollution from [all] transportation in the year 2021. Cleaner vehicles and lower emissions mean so much to the people across this country.”
CNBC:
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/19/bid...-ev-mileage-rule-in-a-win-for-automakers.html
EPA forecast last year the rules would result in automakers building 60% EVs by 2030; the final rules may allow automakers to build 50% EVs or less in 2030.
Which is it? Its BOTH.
The new rules have a slower adoption schedule than proposed by the EPA last year. The rule is not a ban on ICE vehicles, just, as in current law, an increasingly stringent reduction in CO2 emissions per mile in new vehicles. That now explicitly is assumed to be technically impossible to reach without some very high EV penetration. As now, makers can fail to reach the target, and pay fines OR buy carbon credits from other makers that have beat the target.
Tesla has gotten $9B in credit payments from legacy auto in the last 4 years, comparable to their profit on global sales.
Also there are much more stringent emission standards for non-CO2 pollutants like PM2.5 and NOx. As well there should be.
So, it s standard Washington compromise. Give the legacy makers a little more breathing room to launch their next generation of EVs (after their current gen flopped badly) in 2-3 years from now. While still effectively requiring 50% EV adoption in 2032 (versus the 50% by 2030 target that most expected previously).
Personally, I think we will easily hit 50% before 2030 due to market forces, mostly massive cost reductions in battery costs. A 60 kWh basic pack now costs $3000 in 2024, the same as an ICE engine! The only open question is if legacy makers will be able to capture much of that market share before 2030.
So, Biden removed govt pressure from an existing v difficult market pressure for EV adoption. While also making large scale electrification the law of the land. But only doing the latter after Joe leaves office (after 2028), and thus subject to repeal by the next admin.