EV developments

[EbS-P]

I have no fear that govt has screwed this up royally and it’ll end up a disaster for both business and the environment. Why? Because politicians were involved at both the EPA and the White House.

Governments job is to regulate. I thought the opposition to the original pace was over blown. I’m fine with this compromise. The IRA coupled with decreasing battery and manufacturing costs will motivate an increasing adoption rate of EVs. a sub $25k before tax credit EV is already being sold. There will be good option at that price point or below in the next 4 years.

No more more hemis. That’s right Dodge will not be offering V8s. I don’t see an i6 with 24 pounds of boost lasting very long.
Change is afoot.

I pray that you are right. There are a lot of pieces that have to fall in line for this to work. If any small part does not make it, it falls apart.

Upper level policy wonks get there by being politicians.

I think we have proof that the big three plus Toyota and Honda are likely to make mistakes. They might loose a lot of money but that’s just an opportunity for another company to step in. Batteries will get cheap enough that the hybrids will seem silly with a sub 11kwh pack. So they will upgrade then drivers might realize it’s kinda wasteful to have an ICE up front that doesn’t get used but a few times a year.

Five years from now the market will be vastly different than it is today and it’s not that different than it was 5 years ago. I assume any automaker can scale EV production at at least 49% the rate Tesla has done in the past five years.

 

[peakbagger]

A friend of mine is picking up a Ford Lightning this week. He gets the EV rebate at the dealer (no longer need to wait until tax time), a $5,000 ford rebate and a $5,000 dealer rebate. I havent seen the sticker, but his contention is that the various rebates brings the cost to the equivalent to a gas Ford. He bought it for towing his tractor but his needs are very local so the loss of range for towing is not an issue. He normally is quite conservative, but he is electrical engineer and worked on an early EV during college 40 years ago and decided that this was good retirement vehicle. His theory is he will be 80 before the EV components warranty runs out. I had suggested he wait for the chevy truck EV but with the delay for them to hit the market he decided to buy the Ford.

He doesnt have solar yet, he has been talking about it for several years but expect this is going to push him over the edge to finally cut some trees and install an array once he sees his new power bills

There are no DC "superchargers" in the area due to need to upgrade the local grid. There was a grant applied for to install one but it didnt win. The closest ones are about 35 miles in two directions about 60 in another. There are a couple of public 240 volt stations at the local car dealers. He claims they are throwing in a deluxe home charger and that he is all set to have it export power to his house,but I think he was confused by the sales folks as I think it requires a separate black box and electrical upgrades to the house panel. I have my plug in Hybrid so it will be interesting to compare his experience with my good experiences to date. Worse case is I can bum a charge from him as he has 20 amp power outlet

 

[woodgeek]

There are no DC "superchargers" in the area due to need to upgrade the local grid. There was a grant applied for to install one but it didnt win. The closest ones are about 35 miles in two directions about 60 in another.

I would just add that in 9 years of BEV driving and roadtripping (at least 60k miles), I don't think I have ever used a DCFC within 60 miles of my home.

 

[EbS-P]

I would just add that in 9 years of BEV driving and roadtripping (at least 60k miles), I don't think I have ever used a DCFC within 60 miles of my home.

And a counter point when a fast charger is close it’s not that bothersome (especially if it’s free). All the red is supercharging for daily driving around town.

 

[begreen]

I would just add that in 9 years of BEV driving and roadtripping (at least 60k miles), I don't think I have ever used a DCFC within 60 miles of my home.

I tried a couple of times and once with one that was 250 miles from home. In the first two cases one was defective and the other was only for chademo plugs. In the remote hotel location a Tesla was hogging the space all night long. Glad we have a hybrid while this stuff is getting straightened out.

 

[ABMax24]

I have no fear that govt has screwed this up royally and it’ll end up a disaster for both business and the environment. Why? Because politicians were involved at both the EPA and the White House.

And in almost exactly 10 months the pendulum will swing the other way, and another group of politicians will get to have their chance to screw it up. Or more likely, toss the entire piece of legislation in the garbage.

 

[woodgeek]

And in almost exactly 10 months the pendulum will swing the other way, and another group of politicians will get to have their chance to screw it up. Or more likely, toss the entire piece of legislation in the garbage.

Possibly, but not easily. I've read a little about the politics.

The entire thing is set up as a pollution control issue, through the EPA, with layers of protection.

First, the plan as set forth will be challenged in court immediately. It will need to be deemed 'reasonable' by judges which usually means that it will result in reduced cost for the country, including reduced health care costs, and (statistically) saved lives in excess of the usual actuarial cost of saving a human life. Because the plan will result in lower CO, PM2.5 and NOx, these savings actually look quite large.

NOx emissions alone in the US (about 40% from light vehicles) are currently believed to result in >150,000 premature deaths per year. So NOx from light vehicles leads to almost 2X as many premature deaths as crashes.

There is a LOT of established law around pollution emissions. This will make it hard to get it overturned. The exception might be the Supreme Court. The current court has been hostile to EPA authority, and gone against it several times in the last year. The big domino is the EPA's decision to regulate CO2 as a pollutant, which still stands, but which is considered perilous. That is why the plan is written to be highly favorable on CO, PM2.5 and NOx alone (ignoring CO2). And the EPA has been regulating those for 50 years with obvious public good.

So, IRONY, all the cheating manufacturer Dieselgates and bros rolling coal (PM2.5 and NOx) and deleting their emission controls in red states looking the other way... they are creating the justification for this Fed plan that will make it more defendable! Thanks!

Second, even if the new admin doesn't like the plan, the public servants at the EPA will still enforce the plan because it is the law. The easiest way to contravene that would be to defund the EPA or abolish it altogether. But that would require control of both chambers of congress as well. And probably a good margin in both houses.... the EPA is a LOT more popular than Obamacare was several years ago, and the R's were unable to overturn that. Many R pols in moderate districts would fear losing their jobs if they defunded the EPA. And contra the current journalist focus, many R politicians that seem extreme are simply posturing for social media, and are actually interested in the public good at voting time.

The counterexample of all this is Obama's 'Clean Power Plan' which would reduce CO2 from utiiities. It was stymied for years by court cases, and was never significantly implemented. Then there was the Paris accord, which Obama signed onto, with similar goals, overturned by his successor. And yet, despite those political failures, the utilities see the handwriting on the wall nonetheless, and the sector is decarbonizing.

Biden's people have clearly learned from the CPP debacle, and craft very 'defendable' legislation.

 

[peakbagger]

Since we are drifting, Maine is getting ready to crack down on the sale of used Diesel trucks that have had their emissions control equipment stripped. NH already requires that during the annual inspection that the OBD port is connect to a computer and verified that the emissions equipment is functioning. I think the only way around it is 25 year old exemption. Vermont passed a law to do the same but was watered down with far shorter exemption.

Used car folks figure out these rules pretty quick and haul them to auctions or just ship them direct out of state to avoid the various state laws. In the northern tier states where rust is the usually the death of vehicles its less of issue that southern vehicles.

 

[woodgeek]

I tried a couple of times and once with one that was 250 miles from home. In the first two cases one was defective and the other was only for chademo plugs. In the remote hotel location a Tesla was hogging the space all night long. Glad we have a hybrid while this stuff is getting straightened out.

I think you're talking about L2 destination charging... the Volt doesn't do CCS. ?

 

[EbS-P]

More thoughts on EV developments. Monroe Live is starting a tear down of the cyber truck. Nothing exciting yet. But it’s a TRUCK that does turcky things well (minus towing range) by most reviews. It hasn’t stranded any journalists or spontaneously combusted. we already know Tesla is planning two new vehicles. A small hatch/crosover SUV and what is expected to a van?(I have my doubts about that). Tech from that truck like steer by wire and 48v architecture will be used in the new products (and probably all redesigns after ‘25. You make it go PPP beep yeah, you wanna go hang out yeah.

The fact that they paused Giga Mexico is interesting and I think a direct result of the IRA and reality of the influence of the tax credits offered.

Tesla has gotten $9B in credit payments from legacy auto in the last 4 years, comparable to their profit on global sales.

^^^This^^^

And if mileage requirements are deemed unconstitutional what else will be? all safety standards and regulations? How about the credit payments???

Cost parity by 2027… without point of purchase tax credit. No more V8s…. Battery prices falling at the fastest rate we have ever experienced…. Politicians won’t be able to stop these changes ( yes they can have influence but this train has left the station)

In 5 years very few people will be willing to spend $8k+ for an ICE vehicle. Even if they don’t like the EPA.

I think the politicians can influence which decade we hit 51% EV market share and what segments. So call it 2032+ or -5 years

 

[TheElementalCashew]

Since we are drifting, Maine is getting ready to crack down on the sale of used Diesel trucks that have had their emissions control equipment stripped. NH already requires that during the annual inspection that the OBD port is connect to a computer and verified that the emissions equipment is functioning. I think the only way around it is 25 year old exemption. Vermont passed a law to do the same but was watered down with far shorter exemption.

Used car folks figure out these rules pretty quick and haul them to auctions or just ship them direct out of state to avoid the various state laws. In the northern tier states where rust is the usually the death of vehicles its less of issue that southern vehicles.

Just a side note about NH, the OBD port verification means nothing. Any good tuner of a deleted truck makes all of those emissions systems read as ready and the majority of those vehicles will pass. That goes for performance cars with cat deletes, too.

In addition, the OBD test is only required for light-duty diesel vehicles 8500 GVWR or less, which rules out a lot of modern diesel trucks. For example, my 2500HD GVWR is 11350.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

I was just looking at 3/4 ton trucks today and noticed prices are starting to come down. Maybe I’ll upgrade from my squatting half ton around the end of the summer.

 

[begreen]

I think you're talking about L2 destination charging... the Volt doesn't do CCS. ?

Yes, correct on both accounts. It's J1772. The Tesla was blocking access to the level 2 charger at the hotel while not charging.

 

[ABMax24]

Possibly, but not easily. I've read a little about the politics.

The entire thing is set up as a pollution control issue, through the EPA, with layers of protection.

First, the plan as set forth will be challenged in court immediately. It will need to be deemed 'reasonable' by judges which usually means that it will result in reduced cost for the country, including reduced health care costs, and (statistically) saved lives in excess of the usual actuarial cost of saving a human life. Because the plan will result in lower CO, PM2.5 and NOx, these savings actually look quite large.

NOx emissions alone in the US (about 40% from light vehicles) are currently believed to result in >150,000 premature deaths per year. So NOx from light vehicles leads to almost 2X as many premature deaths as crashes.

There is a LOT of established law around pollution emissions. This will make it hard to get it overturned. The exception might be the Supreme Court. The current court has been hostile to EPA authority, and gone against it several times in the last year. The big domino is the EPA's decision to regulate CO2 as a pollutant, which still stands, but which is considered perilous. That is why the plan is written to be highly favorable on CO, PM2.5 and NOx alone (ignoring CO2). And the EPA has been regulating those for 50 years with obvious public good.

So, IRONY, all the cheating manufacturer Dieselgates and bros rolling coal (PM2.5 and NOx) and deleting their emission controls in red states looking the other way... they are creating the justification for this Fed plan that will make it more defendable! Thanks!

Second, even if the new admin doesn't like the plan, the public servants at the EPA will still enforce the plan because it is the law. The easiest way to contravene that would be to defund the EPA or abolish it altogether. But that would require control of both chambers of congress as well. And probably a good margin in both houses.... the EPA is a LOT more popular than Obamacare was several years ago, and the R's were unable to overturn that. Many R pols in moderate districts would fear losing their jobs if they defunded the EPA. And contra the current journalist focus, many R politicians that seem extreme are simply posturing for social media, and are actually interested in the public good at voting time.

The counterexample of all this is Obama's 'Clean Power Plan' which would reduce CO2 from utiiities. It was stymied for years by court cases, and was never significantly implemented. Then there was the Paris accord, which Obama signed onto, with similar goals, overturned by his successor. And yet, despite those political failures, the utilities see the handwriting on the wall nonetheless, and the sector is decarbonizing.

Biden's people have clearly learned from the CPP debacle, and craft very 'defendable' legislation.

Admittedly I don't fully understand the way US government operates in relation to the "repealibility" of these regulations. But as you've said there are other means, such as restricting the EPA budget, and gutting their enforcement department to achieve that end goal.

What gets conflicted here is that CO2 reduction and PM/NOx reduction are in conflict with one another. Adding emissions equipment (particularly to diesels) increases fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. Do we really gain anything taking a diesel tractor in Minnesota that used to consume 250 gallons of diesel per day, adding a bunch of emissions equipment and having that same tractor consume 300 gallons of diesel and 40 gallons of DEF (urea) to do the same work?

I fully understand the need for emissions equipment in and around large population centers, but are there some rural areas where it does more harm than good?

One a side note, it absolutely boggles my mind, in the US, that emissions standards can be rolled out and enforced with an iron fist in the name of "public health", yet there is no such thing as universal health care?

 

[peakbagger]

Headline

The Toyota Prius Prime Makes Most EVs Obsolete​

Why buy a bZ4X when this exists?​

The Toyota Prius Prime Makes Most EVs Obsolete

The 2024 Toyota Prius Prime is a stylish and efficient hatchback that has up to 600 miles and starts at just $34,495.

www.motor1.com

 

[EbS-P]

Headline

The Toyota Prius Prime Makes Most EVs Obsolete​

Why buy a bZ4X when this exists?​

The Toyota Prius Prime Makes Most EVs Obsolete

The 2024 Toyota Prius Prime is a stylish and efficient hatchback that has up to 600 miles and starts at just $34,495.

www.motor1.com

“the Prius does not support DC fast charging. 13.6 kWh battery…. yields a combined output of 220 horsepower and 139 pound-feet of torque. That's nearly 100 hp more than the previous model. “


$34.5k starting MSRP It doesn’t say that it’s tax credit eligible….. looks like $4.5k leasing credit

 

[peakbagger]

It really does not need DC charging with such a small battery. I have had its big brother, the Rav 4 Prime for close to 3 years and have charged it remotely twice. The intent with plug in hybrid is to cover the 90% of the time the car is used for local trips and burn gas for longer trips. I have the smaller charger in my prime so a 240 volt charge takes 4 to 5 hours from "empty" the newest Prius Prime now has a 6600 watt charge so a full charge is 2 to 2.5 hours with 240 volt DC charger.

They are made in Japan (non US )so no direct EV credit but there is an EV credit if the car is leased.

 

[woodgeek]

Plug in hybrids have a place in the transition. The models used to craft the new regs assumed that they would have a slice of the market. And legacy makers can meet emission guidelines with them. And in 'rural' areas, whatever that means, or very cold areas, I think there are lots of use cases (single car households) where they make sense.

I bought a Volt in 2018 when I had a use case.

BEV enthusiasts are dismissive of PHEVs, and talk about how many of them are driven 99% on gas or some other stat. I know that that was a problem in Germany where many were given as company cars (as a form of greenwashing the benefit). The rub was that the company car came with a company card for buying gas, and no way to reimburse home charging! So what did people do...

Myself, I think I ran about 50% of my Volt miles on gas, mostly on longer roadtrips.

But in the post 2030 world, these things will seem pretty weird IMO.

Ofc, why can't I say that the Prius Prime made the normal (HEV) Prius obsolete? Why would you buy a Prius if you can buy a Prime?

 

[woodgeek]

Admittedly I don't fully understand the way US government operates in relation to the "repealibility" of these regulations. But as you've said there are other means, such as restricting the EPA budget, and gutting their enforcement department to achieve that end goal.

What gets conflicted here is that CO2 reduction and PM/NOx reduction are in conflict with one another. Adding emissions equipment (particularly to diesels) increases fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. Do we really gain anything taking a diesel tractor in Minnesota that used to consume 250 gallons of diesel per day, adding a bunch of emissions equipment and having that same tractor consume 300 gallons of diesel and 40 gallons of DEF (urea) to do the same work?

I fully understand the need for emissions equipment in and around large population centers, but are there some rural areas where it does more harm than good?

One a side note, it absolutely boggles my mind, in the US, that emissions standards can be rolled out and enforced with an iron fist in the name of "public health", yet there is no such thing as universal health care?

I don't think that tractors are subject to the new rules, but I could be wrong.

And the excess death models I am certain take into account maps of emissions crossed with population density. If Wyoming wants to turn a blind eye to defeat devices, and can show me a model that no one is (in practice) being harmed, I won't pitch a fit over it.

And, in the long term, pollution and CO2 controls are not in conflict... because ICE engines will become niche products, rather than something that every household is spending a pile of money on and relying on.

 

[EbS-P]

I don't think that tractors are subject to the new rules, but I could be wrong.

And the excess death models I am certain take into account maps of emissions crossed with population density. If Wyoming wants to turn a blind eye to defeat devices, and can show me a model that no one is (in practice) being harmed, I won't pitch a fit over it.

And, in the long term, pollution and CO2 controls are not in conflict... because ICE engines will become niche products, rather than something that every household is spending a pile of money on and relying on.

I think all use DEF. Some use DPF. I would like to know how many gallons are burned by tier 4 compliant equipment.

 

[peakbagger]

Plug in hybrids have a place in the transition. The models used to craft the new regs assumed that they would have a slice of the market. And legacy makers can meet emission guidelines with them. And in 'rural' areas, whatever that means, or very cold areas, I think there are lots of use cases (single car households) where they make sense.

I bought a Volt in 2018 when I had a use case.

BEV enthusiasts are dismissive of PHEVs, and talk about how many of them are driven 99% on gas or some other stat. I know that that was a problem in Germany where many were given as company cars (as a form of greenwashing the benefit). The rub was that the company car came with a company card for buying gas, and no way to reimburse home charging! So what did people do...

Myself, I think I ran about 50% of my Volt miles on gas, mostly on longer roadtrips.

But in the post 2030 world, these things will seem pretty weird IMO.

Ofc, why can't I say that the Prius Prime made the normal (HEV) Prius obsolete? Why would you buy a Prius if you can buy a Prime?

The US Government also bought a pile of Volts early on and when they went to auction some of the auctions were reading out the amount of time the cars had run on gas versus electric. In many cases the volts had rarely or never been charged. At the time few government lots had charging stations and there really was no incentive for government employees to charge them. Whoever grabbed these at auction got a good deal.

 

[DBoon]

BEV enthusiasts are dismissive of PHEVs, and talk about how many of them are driven 99% on gas or some other stat.

I am a BEV enthusiast and am not personally or overall dismissive of all PHEVs - I haven't seen many of that type of person on this website, so I am curious as to where you hear from all of those people. I personally do think that PHEVs have a role to play, especially with pickup trucks, and if they serve as reasonably-priced transition vehicles then they are a good thing.

I do think that a lot of (early) PHEVs were engineered rather poorly with terrible transitions from battery mode to gas engine mode, or horribly underpowered electric motors that required the gas engine to come on pretty much any time you hit the accelerator. These lousy designs gave pure BEV vehicles a bad name, and I've had to counteract many other's assumptions about a pure BEV after they've driven or owned a bad PHEV. The Toyota RAV4 PHEV sounds decent, I personally can't recall the specifics of other early, poorly performing models - it's all history now, likely.

I think with the latest generation of Prius that Toyota finally has it right for hybrids - 55+ MPG, doesn't look like a dorkmobile (and actually looks like I'd want to be seen in it), and doesn't accelerate like you have to stomp through a slurpee on the accelerator pedal to make it go anywhere. Why it took them 20+ years to get from generation 1 technology to that level of performance is beyond me. If they had that car 5 years ago when I bought my Bolt I might have put off owning a pure BEV for a another 10 year car buying/ownership cycle. I am guessing that it vehicle is also available as a PHEV and if that is the case, that would be a car worth considering for many people (provided the price was reasonable).

 

[begreen]

I am a BEV enthusiast and am not personally or overall dismissive of all PHEVs - I haven't seen many of that type of person on this website, so I am curious as to where you hear from all of those people. I personally do think that PHEVs have a role to play, especially with pickup trucks, and if they serve as reasonably-priced transition vehicles then they are a good thing.

I've been a PHEV owner for 10 yrs., first with the Volt Gen 1 and now the Gen 2. Love this car. We've taken it on 1200 mile trips in remote parts of the west without range anxiety, yet 90% of our local driving is on the battery. The 65 mile summer range covers almost all of our local needs. That said, we'll likely be going BEV within the next 2 yrs. The primary drive for change is not the car, but the lack of support by Chevrolet and GM.

 

[woodgeek]

I am a BEV enthusiast and am not personally or overall dismissive of all PHEVs - I haven't seen many of that type of person on this website, so I am curious as to where you hear from all of those people. I personally do think that PHEVs have a role to play, especially with pickup trucks, and if they serve as reasonably-priced transition vehicles then they are a good thing.

I do think that a lot of (early) PHEVs were engineered rather poorly with terrible transitions from battery mode to gas engine mode, or horribly underpowered electric motors that required the gas engine to come on pretty much any time you hit the accelerator. These lousy designs gave pure BEV vehicles a bad name, and I've had to counteract many other's assumptions about a pure BEV after they've driven or owned a bad PHEV. The Toyota RAV4 PHEV sounds decent, I personally can't recall the specifics of other early, poorly performing models - it's all history now, likely.

I think with the latest generation of Prius that Toyota finally has it right for hybrids - 55+ MPG, doesn't look like a dorkmobile (and actually looks like I'd want to be seen in it), and doesn't accelerate like you have to stomp through a slurpee on the accelerator pedal to make it go anywhere. Why it took them 20+ years to get from generation 1 technology to that level of performance is beyond me. If they had that car 5 years ago when I bought my Bolt I might have put off owning a pure BEV for a another 10 year car buying/ownership cycle. I am guessing that it vehicle is also available as a PHEV and if that is the case, that would be a car worth considering for many people (provided the price was reasonable).

I read some EV fora where many are dismissive of PHEVs. Not so much around here.

Those early/bad EVs were most clearly NOT the Volt. I have a Gen 1 (designed in 2010) and it is sporty and awesome in electric mode, and drives exactly the same (power/acceleration) in hybrid mode. It just gets a little louder.

Toyota took the opposite tack with the Prius PHEV, and the Prius. They (also in the Nissan LEAF Gen 1) made the assumption that the driver needed to be trained to drive like a hypermiler. Lots of feedback for 'good driving' and making it hard to 'drive inefficiently'. If you were a hypermiler by temperment, this was fine. If you weren't ... you avoid buying those cars. The Prius was never a big success in the US, I think primarily because of this design error.

Tesla and GM obviously took the opposite tack, delivering PHEVs and BEV with high and consistent performance. And I think its clear they won.

The reason it took so long to get the current Prime is bc it took that long for Toyota to see their error and reverse. The reason the first RAV4 EV was great is bc it was built in collab with Tesla, so it wasn't handicapped.

 

[peakbagger]

Early Toyota hybrids were designed and built for the Japanese car buying public and regulations. Japanese vehicles are built predominantly with urban usage in mind and the economy standards are designed around urban fuel cycles. Lots of stop start crawling in traffic. Sure they made some left hand drive and shipped a few boats full of them over here to gauge demand but if was a PR ploy as much as market decision. The first Prius shipped to the US had a total production run of 33,000 vehicles and their competition was the Honda Insight, a far funkier design with a lot less utility. Both were urban cars woefully under designed for highway use.

The 2nd generation Prius came out in 2003 and it was designed for US use. Decidedly still funky but I rented a few over the years and they had their idiosyncrasies but they did pretty well on the highway and sipped fuel. They sold more than million of them and unlike the original version they looked "green". They were standard uniform for "green liberals". Toyota learned a lot and came up with the 3rd generation. The 3rd generation sold more than 1.6 Million and despite still having the green look, they were lot more mainstream.

And then there was the 4th generation, which went way off base, there is "green" and then there is ugly "green" and the 4th generation was ugly. Wrong car for the market at the time, the "green liberals held their nose and bought them but they definitely did not go mainstream. They did at least come up with a plug in Prime version but its battery range was low.

They seem to have hit the mainstream with the new Prius and the optional Prime version. It is far more of a mainstream car but in a far smaller market now that Ford GM and to some extent Stellantis have walked away from the car market and upscaled to SUVs and trucks. I except folks will be paying a premium for them for quite a while. The other thing is it allows Toyota to do is offset poor fuel mileage of their profitable trucks which probably reduces having to buy credits from Tesla like many firms are doing.

Toyota has for many years looked at supplying the world market and despite the pressure in Europe and the US, the rest of the world was not that interested in EVs. China now is but its market is dominated by domestic firms. International firms in general learn quickly that even though they think they need to be in the Chinese market that they are not going to make a dime anytime soon.

My guess is Toyota keeping its powder dry and waiting for better batteries with higher power density will be worth the wait. They already have announced that their first solid state batteries will go in hybrids and that they dont think EV economics will be such that a EV will get an all solid state battery pack although a blend of solid state and conventional may be a possibility.