The Big 3 aren't going anywhere, especially in the next 10 years, the US Government will never let that happen.
I certainly hope you are correct. I grew up in Fords, and then driving them myself. Right now, the only thing they make money on is pickups. I'm sure that market (ICE pickups) will still exist 10 and maybe 15 years from now, but Ford will have to fight the other legacy makers for that (eventually shrinking) market.
The Big 3 can get bailed out forever, but how big will they be 10 or 15 years from now, in terms of employment and revenue?
I'd say they know their market better than anyone, ICE vehicles sell like hotcakes. GM is finally delivering Colorado's and Canyon's that we're ordered in June, Toyota is 3+ months behind on ICE vehicles, and 6-9 months on Hybrids. Pickup production has finally caught up enough that a truck sits on the lot for a few weeks before being sold.
I can pretty much buy any EV I want off the lot right now though, Subaru, Volkwagen, Hyundai, Ford. They'd have to dig them out of the snowbank first though, because nobody test drives them and none of them sell. One of our 2 Ford dealers sent their EVs back, told Ford to shove em because they don't sell. The other dealers Lightning and Mach-E photos are from Summer still, because they've been sitting so long.
Yeah, no one is buying the Ford EVs here in PA either, the dealers were skeptical at first, (many refused to buy in to EVs last year) and are now bailing.
This is not an EV problem. This is a Ford problem. And GM is selling
fewer EVs than Ford at this point.
Who is buying EVs? Close to
half of new car buyers in the two largest markets. China and EU.
This thread has turned into a pro-EV eco chamber.
What is 'pro EV' or 'anti EV'? I'm sad to see Ford and GM failing, and worried about their employees. I really want(ed) them to succeed, but at this moment (Dec 23) it is clear they are flat on their backs.
I post both negative developments occurring in the EV transition as well as positive ones. The Ford/GM news is one example of a bad outcome. If you think I am posting that as a positive development, that is in your imagination.
The technical and manufacturing challenges required to surpass are insurmountable in the 10-15 year time frame. The battery manufacturing issue in itself is daunting, and as I've said on other threads before, the factories required to build said batteries will not be online in the next 10 years.
Counter to this is the fact that 15% of new light vehicles sold globally are EVs, and that capacity was built in the last couple years. Seems like we can build the new capacity needed over the next 10-15 years just at the current rate of building. Sure, much of that capacity is overseas (where the leading markets are, ofc). But much of it was built by a US company.
While the IRA bill hoped to spur the construction of a lot of battery manufacturing capacity in the US (by the legacy makers), and many factories were announced, we can look at the Ford/GM results as evidence that the first round of their battery factories made poor overpriced batteries that are not going to sell anything at a profit. Its about production cost... both Ford EV products would sell at scale if they were priced 25-50% lower.
Hopefully Ford and GM can learn from their recent mistakes, regroup, and make market competitive batteries and EVs in a year or two. If they need a bailout to get there, I'm all for it.
Never-mind upgrading the grid or generation capacity to support both a growing population and the additional load from EVs.
Even if we switch ALL new light vehicle sales to EVs tomorrow (which we are definitely not doing) the ramp in grid electricity demand would take 10-15 years to roll in. IF we needed to add 25% production in 15 years, that is less than 2% per year (worst case)... and the real adoption rate will be slower than that.
And 25% higher kWh production is much less than 25% higher demand, bc EVs are mostly charged at low demand periods, enhancing grid stability, and the profits of producers (through them running a better duty cycle).
Another thing not talked about (because we can't here) is the political aspect, forcibly switching the population to EV's is going to encounter fierce resistance, likely on a level similar to 2nd amendment issues today.
See the other thread for that. I 100% agree that any attempt to ban ICE vehicles before superior EV replacements exist in all classes (at least 10-15 years away) would be so unpopular that it will not happen. People on the right are getting cranked about some other state than theirs discussing bans more than a decade from now. I think the folks proposing the bans are pandering to their local greeny folks, with a proposal that costs them nothing (bc it is more than a decade in the future). And the same bans (proposals) are selling millions of rage clicks in other states.
electrek.co
