EV developments

[begreen]

EV sales and production are slowing. The biggest sector, trucks and SUVs, are having a hard time finding value in the $75K+ options. If you are in rural America and actually need a truck to move your family and livestock or business, then the bottom line is important. A lot of the early market is more based on vanity and impressing the suburban neighbors. That is not going to sell mom in Nebraska that is trying to keep the family on budget. As the price comes down and packages are more practically centered on family needs, sales should pickup.

 

[woodgeek]

Don’t shoot the messenger

EVs have 79% more reliability problems than gas cars, says Consumer Reports

Teething problems abound with new electric powertrains.

arstechnica.com

Saw this.

IN my case, my 1994 Camry and 2005 Corolla were awful, and needed expensive work in the shop all the time.

And my 3 EVs and 1 PHEV have never had any problems other than flat tires and getting totaled.

I guess I'm lucky?

 

[sloeffle]

You must of had bad luck then. My luck with Toyotas and Hondas has always been positive.

Had a 2001 Corolla and sold it with 18xk miles on it and did nothing but standard maintenance on that car. 2016 Avalon has 101k on it and I’ve never had a drop of problems….yet. My folks had zero issues with their 200x Lexus ES.

I read a few articles today that said that CR EV and PHEV reliability numbers were brought down by a few vehicles. The Pacifica and Audi specifically in the PHEV segment.

Consumer Reports dings EVs, PHEVs on reliability, but that's not the whole story - Autoblog

Consumer Reports has updated its reliability ratings, and shows that certain EVs and PHEVs are dragging down overall reliability for those vehicle types.

www.autoblog.com

 

[EbS-P]

You can't compare gas or diesel engine horsepower ratings to full electric vehicle horsepower ratings. My Chevy Bolt weighs 3600 lbs and is rated at 200 hp, but that will blow the doors off any gas engine car of its size/type, and has ridiculous 0-60 mph capability for a car of its type (6 seconds, I think) and easily more than enough passing capability to pass cars on 2-lane roads with short passing lanes when starting from mph. Realistically, if they built a Bolt with a smaller motor and made it more affordable, that would probably be a great tradeoff for many people (though I like the balance they struck with the Bolt).

If you are concerned with the power, just test drive the car. More than likely you will be pretty surprised by what it is capable of.

I have been told by people with plug-in hybrids that this is not true of their vehicles - some of those cars have undersized electric motors that can't perform during high acceleration events, leading to the gas engine turning on and all the clunky performance you would expect as two systems optimize to work together during a short-term acceleration event.

But for a car that has weight of 5100# and will seat 7 (adding 750# to it now we are at 5850 for 215 hp. I don’t care how instant the torque is it’s not going to accelerate like other 7 seaters.

Don’t shoot the messenger

EVs have 79% more reliability problems than gas cars, says Consumer Reports

Teething problems abound with new electric powertrains.

arstechnica.com

it has no model by model rankings. Light on data. Tesla is middle of the pack and sells a majority of EVs. I’m not saying they are amazing but to compare all EVs to all ICEs and not list specific models lets the absolute crap Dodge/Chrysler hybrid system bring a whole category down. Any new design is going to take at least 3 years really start improving reliability, that is if the manufacturer even cares too. A thousand dollar phone the owner keeps 2.5 years or less.

EV sales and production are slowing. The biggest sector, trucks and SUVs, are having a hard time finding value in the $75K+ options. If you are in rural America and actually need a truck to move your family and livestock or business, then the bottom line is important. A lot of the early market is more based on vanity and impressing the suburban neighbors. That is not going to sell mom in Nebraska that is trying to keep the family on budget. As the price comes down and packages are more practically centered on family needs, sales should pickup.

Very few families need a Suburban or wagoneer. I bought used last purchase. Model Y and 3 will be attractive for many when purchasing a used car. I can’t say the same for any other BEV being sold right now because NACS will be the only real charging option in 3-5 years.

 

[EbS-P]

Can’t have a thread about EV developments and not mention the Cyber truck.

Think what you want about the looks. But the underlying tech is going to be unapproachable by competitors for years. 48v system architecture, drive by wire, (steering only turns 170 degrees) structural rigidity, it’s all pretty impressive to me. Bidirectional charging too, ( sell your stock in Generav or what ever company they belong to). 800v high voltage and 350kw charging at V4 stations.

Yes it’s excessive on every front but it will be the high water mark that every high end electric truck will be measured against. Have you looked at what a platinum F250 sell for?? There are plenty of truck buys willing to spend a lot on a truck. This one……. Maybe not but if they are serious about an electric truck I don’t see how one could say yeah I want that Dodge Chevy or Ford over the cyber truck, looks aside.

If the production can scale up, Tesla has done Model Y and model 3 refresh massive scale ups with little fan fair or negative media attention so at this point they know the formula, and it’s even slightly profitable this will be another success for Tesla. If I were a truck guy I’d be putting my deposit down right now.

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[begreen]

There will be a lot of teething pains for the first owners. Color me cynical, but specs are one thing and real world reports by people that actually need a truck, may end up being poor. Suspected issues, tire wear, hard to maintain stainless (and even harder to repair), oven like heat in the summer, suspension issues, hard to get parts, etc. Everyone wanted a deLorean, until they didn't. Rivian is starting to find this out too.

 

[DBoon]

I am personally not a "truck guy", and I also don't think the Cybertruck is very visually appealing. Having said that, while most "truck guys" probably share my view of the Cybertruck, this is clearly not aimed at "truck guys". The idiocy of what GM and Ford have done by creating monster EV trucks that their target truck market could care less about is beyond my ability to comprehend. At least Tesla isn't aiming at that market, and by deliberately making it look so different they are basically telling the "truck guy" market that this vehicle is not for them.

Will they sell enough Cybertrucks to whatever their target market is? Is their target market big enough to make this profitable? I suspect that the answer is "no" to both questions, which I've put in writing but I won't be surprised to have to eat my words in a few months or years. The market is a strange place sometimes.

 

[incinerator]

Watching the Elon interview on Munro live i get the feeling the cybertruck was almost an experiment in some new tech--drive by wire steering, 48v system and using ethernet vs canbus. I still think its a very ugly vehicle. Like someone strapped an f117a stealth fighter on top of a truck, but maybe the tech from it will move into other models. Also it appears to be aluminum and stainless steel construction and have locking front and rear mechanical diffs--so shouldn't rot out like a dodge and should offroad like a jeep.

 

[EbS-P]

Watching the Elon interview on Munro live i get the feeling the cybertruck was almost an experiment in some new tech--drive by wire steering, 48v system and using ethernet vs canbus. I still think its a very ugly vehicle. Like someone strapped an f117a stealth fighter on top of a truck, but maybe the tech from it will move into other models. Also it appears to be aluminum and stainless steel construction and have locking front and rear mechanical diffs--so shouldn't rot out like a dodge and should offroad like a jeep.

Every model has been an experiment of some fashion. SS body will be likely be the major success or downfall of the CT.

 

[ericm979]

Every model has been an experiment of some fashion. SS body will be likely be the major success or downfall of the CT.

It totally worked for DeLorean! Oh wait.

 

[DBoon]

an experiment in some new tech--drive by wire steering, 48v system and using ethernet vs canbus.

None of these things are new or experiments - Tesla just loves to talk about the technical details about what they implement more than any other automaker, and their fanboys eat up their story.

Drive-by-wire steering has been around since at least the late 2000s with the advent of FlexRay bus protocols (now supplanted by various speeds of automotive ethernet). Automotive ethernet began as 100 Mb/s Broad-R-Reach at about that same time, and then has moved down to 10 Mb/s and up to 1000 Mb/s with 5-10 Gb/s in the works. 48V electrical systems are similarly old, having gained initial traction in mild-hybrid EVs.

Tesla also made a big to-do about using Silicon-carbide power IGBTs for their first drivetrain, claiming it allowed the really high efficiencies and better range (reality is it just made up for the lower efficiency of their AC induction motor, and they lied about their range anyways).

 

[EbS-P]

None of these things are new or experiments - Tesla just loves to talk about the technical details about what they implement more than any other automaker, and their fanboys eat up their story.

Drive-by-wire steering has been around since at least the late 2000s with the advent of FlexRay bus protocols (now supplanted by various speeds of automotive ethernet). Automotive ethernet began as 100 Mb/s Broad-R-Reach at about that same time, and then has moved down to 10 Mb/s and up to 1000 Mb/s with 5-10 Gb/s in the works. 48V electrical systems are similarly old, having gained initial traction in mild-hybrid EVs.

Tesla also made a big to-do about using Silicon-carbide power IGBTs for their first drivetrain, claiming it allowed the really high efficiencies and better range (reality is it just made up for the lower efficiency of their AC induction motor, and they lied about their range anyways).

Yes I agree, but all in a single vehicle with production goals in the low to mid 6 figures a year? I’m impressed with the whole package. This would not have been the same truck had it come out in 2019. The advances here will be used in other products to reduce costs.

 

[peakbagger]

If people are willing to pay to be the product testers for the new technology, more power to them. Hopefully they live near a service center and have a second vehicle for when the inevitable glitches arise. Good Enough is a popular method of development for software, make the new product "good enough" for the salesman to make the sales and then let the users do the final testing and then work hope the engineering group can hopefully work out the bugs using the extensive data collection installed in the vehicle. Ideally you keep the client in the dark about potential bugs until the occur and the product gets hauled in, then they can deploy the patches for all the other issues while figuring out how to fix the latest bug.

My Toyota Rav 4 Prime is far less technically complicated but has some similarities about a low volume vehicle being rushed into production and it has a long list of possible bugs, some with no solutions. They are still in big demand, so Toyota options them up to maximize revenue , implement running changes to fix the new production before it leaves the factory and occassionally put them in a "port hold" when they can and stonewall the current owners about fixing the issues. Still very good innovative designs but nowhere near what Tesla is releasing on the road with the new truck. The initial owners no doubt are fan boys and the trucks are going to be trophies to show how cool they are and no doubt Tesla will support the heck out of them if issues arise but at some point when the volume gets up, that support will get diluted and then the rest of the world will hear how reliable the new tech is.

 

[EbS-P]

Support, unless it’s an over the air software update, Tesla has a poor record of. Service centers are in general a bad experience. But it will sell. I don’t think the rivian is real competition and the lightning is now outdated. Tesla now understands how to scale production. There will always be wrinkles but the cyber tuck is here to stay and a force in the EV truck market.

 

[woodgeek]

If you like data, BloombergNEF has a new slide deck on the gloabl EV market...

https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/2023-COP28-ZEV-Factbook.pdf

EVs are now about 16% of all new cars sold, on a global basis. The US is lagging that average.

Bottom line in my read is that adoption rate is going linear in China and EU, not exponential. US sales still growing (contra the FUD out there now). Startups now sell 7% of global cars vs 93% for legacy makers. About 29 million BEV cars on the road globally.

EVs offset 112 million MT of CO2/year, and avoid the combustion of a measly 300k barrel/day.

About what I save eating vegan.

 

[incinerator]

Carwow (UK car channel on YT) testing a cybertruck and they were all kicking the body panels and appears to suffer no damage. They also ran a shopping cart (with a guy in it) into the side of it//no apparent damage. Also the front/rear castings of the cybertruck are aluminum and the only steel is the cab. This thing should last forever as long as you don't send it off a cliff. I also noticed on the cybertruck they were testing the avg was 506wh/mile over 3600 mile or about 2 miles/kwh--sounds about right.

 

[EbS-P]

Carwow (UK car channel on YT) testing a cybertruck and they were all kicking the body panels and appears to suffer no damage. They also ran a shopping cart (with a guy in it) into the side of it//no apparent damage. Also the front/rear castings of the cybertruck are aluminum and the only steel is the cab. This thing should last forever as long as you don't send it off a cliff. I also noticed on the cybertruck they were testing the avg was 506wh/mile over 3600 mile or about 2 miles/kwh--sounds about right.

It will last as long as the drive units and battery are finically a good decision to replace. It’s not like fifty years from now there will be Barn find teslas that will start right up.

 

[peakbagger]

A reminder that the road chemicals in use in icy climates will also rot out aluminum and also cause stress corrosion cracking of aluminum alloys. Tesla has already had issues already with shrinkage cracking issues in the megacastings.

 

[EbS-P]

A reminder that the road chemicals in use in icy climates will also rot out aluminum and also cause stress corrosion cracking of aluminum alloys. Tesla has already had issues already with shrinkage cracking issues in the megacastings.

Yeah I’ve seen some nasty looking images of teslas that they have refused to work in because the battery pack was corroded and deemed unsafe.

 

[walhondingnashua]

On a Rogan Podcast recently, Musk said that designing the truck was the easy part. Much of the manufacturing is brand new and actually building the truck is the real struggle.

 

[EbS-P]

On a Rogan Podcast recently, Musk said that designing the truck was the easy part. Much of the manufacturing is brand new and actually building the truck is the real struggle.

You can do things in CAD you could never actually be able to manufacture.

 

[begreen]

Yeah I’ve seen some nasty looking images of teslas that they have refused to work in because the battery pack was corroded and deemed unsafe.

Teslas have a lot of aluminum including body panels. Hopefully they're ok. I'd be pretty pissed if my $60,000 vehicle's frame or battery pack was rotting out in 3-5 yrs. That's been the stuff of class action lawsuits in the past.

 

[woodgeek]

Looks like France and Germany are redoing their EV incentives:

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Briefly, Germany is ending all EV subsidies, and France is limiting them to EU-built EVs.

This was just a matter of time after the US passed the IRA.

Tesla sells both China built and EU built EVs in Europe. So the drop of Highland model 3's in EU... maybe they will ship more here?

-----------------

In other news, Chevy is shipping their Blazer EV, intended as their small SUV offering. The one they killed the Bolt to not compete with. The one they said would be large volume and cost $40k. In 2022.

The sale price is close to $60k. And TWO reviewers had their Blazers croak within the first two days of testing, throwing piles of codes, and stranding the reviewer on their road trip. And in both cases, Chevy can't explain or fix the codes (like its not something simple like a 12V battery glitch). The Blazer does not have AA or CarPlay, and the infotainment system in these cars basically threw up garbage screens most of the time after being driven for a few hours.

These were production vehicles picked up off lots.

This is BAD. Worse than Toyota's EV wheels falling off. Worse than the VW ID.4's screens sucking.

The Blazer is more than a year late, at least $15k over budget, and the wheels don't turn, the batteries don't charge and the screens don't screen. Two times.

Bye Bye GM.

 

[EbS-P]

Looks like France and Germany are redoing their EV incentives:

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

Briefly, Germany is ending all EV subsidies, and France is limiting them to EU-built EVs.

This was just a matter of time after the US passed the IRA.

Tesla sells both China built and EU built EVs in Europe. So the drop of Highland model 3's in EU... maybe they will ship more here?

-----------------

In other news, Chevy is shipping their Blazer EV, intended as their small SUV offering. The one they killed the Bolt to not compete with. The one they said would be large volume and cost $40k. In 2022.

The sale price is close to $60k. And TWO reviewers had their Blazers croak within the first two days of testing, throwing piles of codes, and stranding the reviewer on their road trip. And in both cases, Chevy can't explain or fix the codes (like its not something simple like a 12V battery glitch). The Blazer does not have AA or CarPlay, and the infotainment system in these cars basically threw up garbage screens most of the time after being driven for a few hours.

These were production vehicles picked up off lots.

This is BAD. Worse than Toyota's EV wheels falling off. Worse than the VW ID.4's screens sucking.

The Blazer is more than a year late, at least $15k over budget, and the wheels don't turn, the batteries don't charge and the screens don't screen. Two times.

Bye Bye GM.

I get these are complex systems but to sell something that has issues you can’t explain really is bad. How many infotainment systems is GM coding for now? How can you compete with Tesla? If BYD decides to enter the American market what then. Vinfast is probably going to beat them to a decent volume product. Who’s in charge of the engineering?

 

[begreen]

Add to this the buying trend toward hybrids instead of EVs. Good for Toyota, but not GM which is reported as reconsidering hybrids.