EV developments

[EbS-P]

What happened in 2023 with media messaging about EV sales is (my opinion) a classic example of the inability of media or most people to understand the nuances of mathematical or scientific terminology, or to even tease out the bigger story of failures behind some of the manufacturer's missteps, and the classic capitalization of these inabilities by those we seek to create propaganda or misinformation to suit their economic or social agendas.

The simple reality is that sales growth slowed, but is still at something like (from memory) 30% year over year, down from 50% year over year. And EV sales in the US will/have hit 1 million units for the first time (annualized basis) and are something like 8% of all new vehicle sales. This doesn't sound like a failure to me, and nobody is forecasting growth to go to zero. EVs have gotten to be 8% of the market a lot quicker than solar PV got to be 8% of electricity supply, and a 30% rate of growth means that in 5 years market share will be 30% of all new vehicles in the US. That would seem (to me) to be the tipping point to rapid adoption.

For instance (just from memory, and not direct quotes) some classic media stories and/or misinformation circulating now:

• "EVs are piling up at dealerships" - hmmm, maybe some makes and models but not all makes and models.
• "Tesla has to cut prices as demand plummets" - hmmm, demand growth slowed, and they strategically modestly lowered prices to make things harder on those trying to intrude into their market share, which seems to be working and seems pretty smart (note: I am not a Tesla fanboy, just making a business observation).
• "GM is cutting production and delaying new models" - mostly because it sounds like they can't solve production problems with batteries and made a dumb bet on leading with big, expensive truck-like vehicles targeted at a market segment that doesn't particularly care for EVs, while not having more practical, less expensive vehicles that the broader market might actually buy.
• "Honda is backing out of GM partnership" - maybe because GM can't figure out how to build batteries at scale and at good enough cost?
• "Toyota is looking smart now by betting mostly on hybrids, which is what consumers seem to want" - nice try! Hybrids are cheaper than BEVs and not a bad solution for somebody who wants something more efficient and/or more cost-effective to run and can't afford a BEV. Toyota is way behind and panicking, and trying to spin that hybrids are the way to go. This will not end well for them. Japanese companies often seem happy to be left behind as the world changes when the changes don't suit what they do well. Remember how dominant Sony was in portable media back in the 1980s? They couldn't adapt or change, and just kept making what they knew how to make while others reinvented the paradigm. Prediction - In 20 years, Toyota, Nissan and Honda will have a niche business selling plug-in hybrids and supplying gas engines to a bunch of niche industries, but will otherwise be shells of their former selves having given most of their market share to Chinese BEV suppliers.
• "Ford is losing billions on EVs with no end in sight and is pivoting back to hybrids" - maybe because they didn't have a good plan on how to produce EVs profitably at scale and relied on a bunch of (now) outdated off-the-shelf technology and jury-rigged designs to jump start their efforts. Ford Mustang - kind of OK when it launched, but wasn't going to be competitive five years out, so no surprise that its sales are falling.

Transitions are never easy, and they tend to have a lot of bumps in the road. But it is hard to argue with 30% yearly growth as being anything but impressive. If the demand is there for affordable BEVs (and I believe it is), then whatever supplier gets there early will be in a better position to capitalize on the growth. Half of the car companies consumers know well today will probably not be around in 20 years.

Well said. I don’t get the media jumping on the “sales are plummeting” band wagon. The real issue I think is they have all signed on to NACS but they won’t be out for 18-24 months. And consumers will wait that out. Oh that and they can’t compete with Tesla.

 

[EbS-P]

I don't understand why they don't put a photovoltaic panel on top of these vehicles

I need 10 KWh a day minimum. A square meter or two isn’t worth the complexity or cost for the small output. Besides it appears consumers all was glass roofs

 

[DBoon]

I don't understand why they don't put a photovoltaic panel on top of these vehicles

Because it adds a lot of cost and doesn't generate that much electricity - it would be a vanity statement.

 

[EbS-P]

Because it adds a lot of cost and doesn't generate that much electricity - it would be a vanity statement.

Remember to save 100$ Tesla is removing all stocks. No rain sensor, no ultrasonic sensors. It’s a race to how little you have to put into a car and still be able to sell it.

 

[peakbagger]

It's not really worth the effort and cost to put a panel on a car, a panel the size of the roof of a SUV might at peak sun hour in an area near the equator with high sun angle might put out 200 watts. To move the car down road requires kWs. I think some firms do use integrated PV but mostly to ventilate the car to drop the initial air conditioning load.

With respect to Toyota, they looked at the short term market and their worldwide market and decided hybrids are better in the short run. They are betting on solid state batteries for their EVs. I have no doubt they will have competitive EVs in few years and avoid the big losses that most traditional car companies are taking now to rush out EVs. Ford is betting the company and anyone that thinks a Lightning as it exists today is competitive vehicle is real optimist. I see the current configuration trucks become "boat anchors" in the used car markets. At least Tesla waited to do a clean sheet EV truck design,

 

[EbS-P]

I really think what the US consumer wants ( trucks and large SUVs)isn’t compatible with current EV technology. Unless gas goes over 5$ a gallons and stays there there is little motivation on the consumer side. If you don’t sell what the consumer wants you will go out of business.

I do think the Cyber truck has the potential to disrupt the Truck sector but…. Decisions were made that can’t be undone now. At least Tesla is committed to doing it well and not rushing. The Ford lightning and MachE were rushed. Who know what stellantis decideds in for the American market and what technologies crossover from other markets to the US market.

 

[Solarguy3500]

I don't understand why they don't put a photovoltaic panel on top of these vehicles

A few have tried it but it seems the nuts and bolts of getting the power to the battery is tricky. Seems as though it might make more sense as tech/efficiency improves.

https://www.motortrend.com/news/2023-fisker-ocean-solar-roof-charging-details/

 

[KDubU]

I agree, EV’s are not going anywhere. They have a good foothold and will continue to take market share as tech improves, batteries specifically. I am still waiting for an EV that I like and for my current vehicles to age (2019 & 2023). I tend to keep my vehicles for a while so do not have an incentive to jump yet we are a prime candidate for an EV as we do not drive long distance and my wife mostly drives within a 30-40 mile area at most. I see replacing her vehicle first as it’s the 2019 and replacing with an EV although she says, “why are they all ugly” so a design of her liking will be a parameter (although she has not seen all EV models that are available today).

 

[KDubU]

I really think what the US consumer wants ( trucks and large SUVs)isn’t compatible with current EV technology. Unless gas goes over 5$ a gallons and stays there there is little motivation on the consumer side. If you don’t sell what the consumer wants you will go out of business.

I do think the Cyber truck has the potential to disrupt the Truck sector but…. Decisions were made that can’t be undone now. At least Tesla is committed to doing it well and not rushing. The Ford lightning and MachE were rushed. Who know what stellantis decideds in for the American market and what technologies crossover from other markets to the US market.

Agreed and I’ll offer up what so many don’t want to hear. Raise tax on fuel and direct those funds to help pay down the debt.

 

[woodgeek]

At the end of the day, a car roof solar panel is an expensive way to make kWh, bc it is often not in the sun. I am simply not interested in paying for such a panel when I can buy grid power for less. And glass roof? Maybe if its free, but probably not even then.

Ford and GM are having a hiccup. Both designed their 'first generation' of (long-range) BEVs, to great fanfare, and then discovered that they can't make money on them due to a combination of high production cost (their bad) and the performance being lacking compared to other makers (most notably Tesla). Ford was first out of the gate, and sold a few before they raised prices, their sales tanked and their dealers revolted. GM has been slow out of the gate, and appears to have decided to slow walk production even before release.

Both are now looking to their 'second generation' EVs, that will be out in a couple years (?) to get them back on track. It was announced that the Boltium will launch in MY 2025. Given GM's track record, that might mean 2027. :/

This 'generational lag' is not new to EVs. Every make and model needs to be updated to stay competitive in this market, Ford and GM are sucking at doing that. A year or two of delay in scaling production of a new EV model might make the difference between it being a good seller and a non-seller. And the makers have to adapt to dropping the price on each model as it ages in the market to keep it selling, the way we see with tech like phones or laptops.

 

[EbS-P]

At the end of the day, a car roof solar panel is an expensive way to make kWh, bc it is often not in the sun. I am simply not interested in paying for such a panel when I can buy grid power for less. And glass roof? Maybe if its free, but probably not even then.

Ford and GM are having a hiccup. Both designed their 'first generation' of (long-range) BEVs, to great fanfare, and then discovered that they can't make money on them due to a combination of high production cost (their bad) and the performance being lacking compared to other makers (most notably Tesla). Ford was first out of the gate, and sold a few before they raised prices, their sales tanked and their dealers revolted. GM has been slow out of the gate, and appears to have decided to slow walk production even before release.

Both are now looking to their 'second generation' EVs, that will be out in a couple years (?) to get them back on track. It was announced that the Boltium will launch in MY 2025. Given GM's track record, that might mean 2027. :/

This 'generational lag' is not new to EVs. Every make and model needs to be updated to stay competitive in this market, Ford and GM are sucking at doing that. A year or two of delay in scaling production of a new EV model might make the difference between it being a good seller and a non-seller. And the makers have to adapt to dropping the price on each model as it ages in the market to keep it selling, the way we see with tech like phones or laptops.

And in the mean time Tesla will continue to dominate sales. Improvements and scale will continue to refine and reduce costs. I will point out May latest WTF EV moment. I need a 7 seater. Kia EV9 has 7 seats in the base configuration BUT it has less power than the Model 3 RWD. That’s right they think Americans will want a 7 seater SUV with 215 horsepower. Why????? I refuse to go backwards. I don’t need 599 horses but it’s gotta be more than my current 3.5L van.

 

[ABMax24]

The EV9 is 379hp is AWD configuration. I don't know anyone that would buy a RWD family vehicle.

The Chevy Tahoe/GMC Yukon has a 277hp diesel option, and they sell like hotcakes up here, because they get better fuel economy than all full size and almost all midsize SUV's, except the hybrids.

 

[EbS-P]

The EV9 is 379hp is AWD configuration. I don't know anyone that would buy a RWD family vehicle.

The Chevy Tahoe/GMC Yukon has a 277hp diesel option, and they sell like hotcakes up here, because they get better fuel economy than all full size and almost all midsize SUV's, except the hybrids.

I don’t need AWD. Depending how they split power it just eats tires for my 9k miles a year of city driving. So far I’ve replaced axels twice on my Honda at 128k miles. That’s 42k miles average. And after visiting a Kia dealer I’m quite certain there Will almost no base model RWDs delivered to North America.

I’d rather see the torque listed than horsepower. We’re comparing motors that spin max 3.7k to ones that can spin 18k. The torque curve matters.

 

[ABMax24]

The torque curve can simply be derived from the power curve.

From what I've seen, most motors start at peak torque and are flat until the motor or motor controller hit some kind of power limit, and then the power curve holds flat.

Like this:

 

[EbS-P]

The torque curve can simply be derived from the power curve.

From what I've seen, most motors start at peak torque and are flat until the motor or motor controller hit some kind of power limit, and then the power curve holds flat.

Like this:

View attachment 319973

So the 5252 rpm crossover doesn’t apply because?

 

[ABMax24]

So the 5252 rpm crossover doesn’t apply because?

Check the units, this is metric. 5252 applies to ft/lbs and hp.

 

[begreen]

At the end of the day, a car roof solar panel is an expensive way to make kWh, bc it is often not in the sun. I am simply not interested in paying for such a panel when I can buy grid power for less. And glass roof? Maybe if its free, but probably not even then.

I couldn't agree more. Many cars don't sit out in the sun all day and a solar panel is going to give diddly for a charge in the winter in many areas. I sure don't want the weight or oven baking heat of a glass roof either.

Ford and GM are having a hiccup. Both designed their 'first generation' of (long-range) BEVs, to great fanfare, and then discovered that they can't make money on them due to a combination of high production cost (their bad) and the performance being lacking compared to other makers (most notably Tesla).

This power race is nuts and Tesla is largely responsible for this. Personally I think it's just an extension of Musk's juvenile ego. A car that can go 0-60 in less than 9 seconds is fine, especially if that translates into lower cost without a terrible range hit. The average commute vehicle or grocery wagon does not need to be a rocket.

 

[ABMax24]

This power race is nuts and Tesla is largely responsible for this. Personally I think it's just an extension of Musk's juvenile ego. A car that can go 0-60 in less than 9 seconds is fine, especially if that translates into lower cost without a terrible range hit. The average commute vehicle or grocery wagon does not need to be a rocket.

He had to build a car that appealed to the wealthy, he couldn't and still can't compete with ICE powered commuter cars. Speed appeals to many with money, it set his cars apart enough to get people in the drivers seat. Create sales and make the company profitable. From there he can work on finding design and manufacturing efficiencies and eventually achieve economies of scale.

 

[EbS-P]

The base model Camry has 200 horsepower and 3111 pounds. A 1993 Camry has 130. That’s a big change. Weight was about the same. It’s just not Tesla but they have taken it the farthest.

 

[NHWS]

Tesla is setting a new standard of manufacturing where you don’t wait for a new model year to roll out a refresh or wait for a major redesign to implement new technology. When it’s deemed ready it goes on the line and out the door.

Nothing new about that. Porsche/Audi/VW were doing rolling updates in the 1960s, and they were not the first.

 

[begreen]

Nothing new about that. Porsche/Audi/VW were doing rolling updates in the 1960s, and they were not the first.

The Tesla S hasn't had a major update for 10 yrs. I think other than a little facelift in 2016. It's definitely a dated design. In general Teslas are looking kind of like a generic car these days.

 

[EbS-P]

The Tesla S hasn't had a major update for 10 yrs. I think other than a little facelift in 2016. It's definitely a dated design. In general Teslas are looking kind of like a generic car these days.

About the only thing not changed is the body panels and the and seats. Everything else has gone through 3-4 generations. Batteries motors suspension computers and headlights have all changed. I still thins the model S looks good. From the back it could be a 9 year old RWD or brand new Plaid if they removed the stick on identifiers.

 

[DBoon]

That’s right they think Americans will want a 7 seater SUV with 215 horsepower. Why????? I refuse to go backwards. I don’t need 599 horses but it’s gotta be more than my current 3.5L van.

You can't compare gas or diesel engine horsepower ratings to full electric vehicle horsepower ratings. My Chevy Bolt weighs 3600 lbs and is rated at 200 hp, but that will blow the doors off any gas engine car of its size/type, and has ridiculous 0-60 mph capability for a car of its type (6 seconds, I think) and easily more than enough passing capability to pass cars on 2-lane roads with short passing lanes when starting from mph. Realistically, if they built a Bolt with a smaller motor and made it more affordable, that would probably be a great tradeoff for many people (though I like the balance they struck with the Bolt).

If you are concerned with the power, just test drive the car. More than likely you will be pretty surprised by what it is capable of.

I have been told by people with plug-in hybrids that this is not true of their vehicles - some of those cars have undersized electric motors that can't perform during high acceleration events, leading to the gas engine turning on and all the clunky performance you would expect as two systems optimize to work together during a short-term acceleration event.

 

[peakbagger]

My plug in Toyota seems to coordinate the two quite well. It is the second fastest 0 to 60 sold in the US. There is some learning curve. To get full power, the hybrid engine needs to be warmed up which may not happen in around town driving, in that case the "boost" from gas engine is not there for a few seconds and the weight of the vehicle is noticeable on acceleration, it still has good throttle response but runs out of steam while the engine is warming up. I think most folks with this model. (Rav 4 Prime), have figured out that its best to run in hybrid mode with the engine running except for braking and downhills for highway speeds. In that case when going for a pass, full gas and electric power is available to the point where it can feel like torque steer is present.

I used to own the quickest "car" 0 to 60 sold in the US, A GMC Syclone, in 1991 and it had a few less horsepower than the Prime has.

 

[sloeffle]

Don’t shoot the messenger

EVs have 79% more reliability problems than gas cars, says Consumer Reports

Teething problems abound with new electric powertrains.

arstechnica.com