What happened in 2023 with media messaging about EV sales is (my opinion) a classic example of the inability of media or most people to understand the nuances of mathematical or scientific terminology, or to even tease out the bigger story of failures behind some of the manufacturer's missteps, and the classic capitalization of these inabilities by those we seek to create propaganda or misinformation to suit their economic or social agendas.
The simple reality is that sales growth slowed, but is still at something like (from memory) 30% year over year, down from 50% year over year. And EV sales in the US will/have hit 1 million units for the first time (annualized basis) and are something like 8% of all new vehicle sales. This doesn't sound like a failure to me, and nobody is forecasting growth to go to zero. EVs have gotten to be 8% of the market a lot quicker than solar PV got to be 8% of electricity supply, and a 30% rate of growth means that in 5 years market share will be 30% of all new vehicles in the US. That would seem (to me) to be the tipping point to rapid adoption.
For instance (just from memory, and not direct quotes) some classic media stories and/or misinformation circulating now:
- "EVs are piling up at dealerships" - hmmm, maybe some makes and models but not all makes and models.
- "Tesla has to cut prices as demand plummets" - hmmm, demand growth slowed, and they strategically modestly lowered prices to make things harder on those trying to intrude into their market share, which seems to be working and seems pretty smart (note: I am not a Tesla fanboy, just making a business observation).
- "GM is cutting production and delaying new models" - mostly because it sounds like they can't solve production problems with batteries and made a dumb bet on leading with big, expensive truck-like vehicles targeted at a market segment that doesn't particularly care for EVs, while not having more practical, less expensive vehicles that the broader market might actually buy.
- "Honda is backing out of GM partnership" - maybe because GM can't figure out how to build batteries at scale and at good enough cost?
- "Toyota is looking smart now by betting mostly on hybrids, which is what consumers seem to want" - nice try! Hybrids are cheaper than BEVs and not a bad solution for somebody who wants something more efficient and/or more cost-effective to run and can't afford a BEV. Toyota is way behind and panicking, and trying to spin that hybrids are the way to go. This will not end well for them. Japanese companies often seem happy to be left behind as the world changes when the changes don't suit what they do well. Remember how dominant Sony was in portable media back in the 1980s? They couldn't adapt or change, and just kept making what they knew how to make while others reinvented the paradigm. Prediction - In 20 years, Toyota, Nissan and Honda will have a niche business selling plug-in hybrids and supplying gas engines to a bunch of niche industries, but will otherwise be shells of their former selves having given most of their market share to Chinese BEV suppliers.
- "Ford is losing billions on EVs with no end in sight and is pivoting back to hybrids" - maybe because they didn't have a good plan on how to produce EVs profitably at scale and relied on a bunch of (now) outdated off-the-shelf technology and jury-rigged designs to jump start their efforts. Ford Mustang - kind of OK when it launched, but wasn't going to be competitive five years out, so no surprise that its sales are falling.
Transitions are never easy, and they tend to have a lot of bumps in the road. But it is hard to argue with 30% yearly growth as being anything but impressive. If the demand is there for affordable BEVs (and I believe it is), then whatever supplier gets there early will be in a better position to capitalize on the growth. Half of the car companies consumers know well today will probably not be around in 20 years.
