Norway on track to reach 100% EV sales in the next 2 years

[begreen]

According to reports Ive seen recently it takes 60-70k miles just for the emissions created making the battery packs to save over the emissions of a average car. Longer if compared to a compact car.
That’s not even factoring in the social cost of slavery and child workers in the mines.
But good for Norway. A tiny, rich country that can be driven easily with a limited range ev. Also Im sure they are subsidizing charging and stations with their wealth.
Also they have excellent trains for distance transportation.
Batteries are inefficient, costly, dirty, expensive. Need a better solution.

Funny, I just read a report that did a deep-dive analysis of this. The results refute this statement completely. The report is a proprietary, paid-for report, but I will dig it up and relay some of the findings. There are all sorts of reports, some sponsored by the oil industry, to smear EVs. That doesn't make them gospel.

I have to ask, does anyone have any electronics? Were you worried about who was working in the gold mines for all the contacts in said computers and cell phones or the villages destroyed by the toxic waste ponds? Yes, our western lifestyle is selfish and harmful. We could all do with less. At least the spotlight is on car mfgs. now and positive changes are happening in battery and materials tech that lowers their footprint.

The infernal combustion engine is inefficient, dirty, noisy, and not cheap. We may have gotten used to it, but that doesn't make it better.

 

[begreen]

It's not the detailed paper I was looking for, but here is a quick summary.
For the Tesla 3 as compared to the Toyota Corolla, the break-even point is
Power scenario 1: 100% hydroelectric
Break-even point: 8,400 miles

Power scenario 2: U.S. average energy mix (23% coal-fired, plus other fossil fuels and renewables)
Break-even point: 13,500 miles

Unlikely power scenario 3: 100% coal-fired
Break-even point: 78,700 miles

For a mid-sized SUV comparison, Tesla y vs Honda CRV
Power scenario 1: 100% hydroelectric
Break-even point: 9,200 miles

Power scenario 2: U.S. average energy mix (23% coal-fired, plus other fossil fuels and renewables)
Break-even point: 14,800 miles

Rare power scenario 3: 100% coal-fired
Break-even point: 89,000 miles

Lifetime carbon emissions of electric vehicles vs gasoline cars

Reuters analyzed data generated by an Argonne National Laboratory model to determine at what point a typical electric vehicle (EV) becomes cleaner than an equivalent gasoline car in terms of its lifetime carbon footprint.

www.reuters.com

For more information:

Electric Vehicle Myths | US EPA

Facts and myths about electric vehicles.

www.epa.gov

 

[Where2]

Im kinda curious how I will end up charging my EV if I get one. I have a two car wide driveway but a garage that isnt big enough to fit two cars, unless you go with small cars and dont own a ton of stuff/shelves. So Id likely park it in the driveway and have to run a cable to it and then bring it back up afterwards when done. So Im kinda curious if Im going to put the charger outside and what that would look like, or inside and run the cable under the garage door. Eventually the pressure from the garage door slamming on it will cause problems to the wire.

A municipality near me has already done the outdoor testing for you. These were mounted outdoors years ago:

They've lived through daily use by the municipality employees, and public use. (Free Public use is limited to 7am-4pm). I liked the "cord wrap" design of the Clipper Creek units so much, I have bought several just like this one. (One for my sister, one for my house, one for my second house).

Here's the other brand the same municipality installed:

Both brands have been mounted to a lighted marine power pedestal like you would find in a marina. I find the power pedestal a little overkill, but the municipality also uses these pedestals sprinkled throughout the park as customer hookups for their vendors at their weekly "green market" and bazar.

If you're thinking "Oooh, that's unsightly, I couldn't mount that to the front of my house!". From the average car passing on the street, these are about as unsightly as a garden hose reel with a hose hanging on it, especially if you face the side with LED's parallel with the street, so that cars passing by see a black hose sized cord draped around a cord hanger. The Clipper Creek HCS-40 came in gray or black housings, and landscaping can be used to hide lots of things.

The sad irony is that in Europe, most EVs come with a cord that detaches from both ends, allowing the EV owner to "bring their own cord" when they visit public Level2 charging stations, or charge at home. A home EVSE would be much easier to disguise on a house if the US used the detachable cord system.

 

[EbS-P]

The Tesla wall connector looks better.
J1772 Wall Connector
(broken link removed)

 

[Ashful]

Power scenario 2: U.S. average energy mix (23% coal-fired, plus other fossil fuels and renewables)
Break-even point: 13,500 miles

Good data. Someone should do the same on dollars!

Honestly, anyone arguing against BEV's from an environmental angle is an idiot, and anyone arguing against them on ethical concerns is not being honest with themselves. I love conserving carbon as much as the next guy , but Americans usually vote with their wallet first, and everything else second. It's an ugly truth, but it's the truth, nonetheless.

 

[old greybeard]

And now a report is out that shows its more expensive to charge a ev to go 100 miles than it is to pay for gas.

Upside Down: Study Reveals EVs Cost More to Drive Than Gas-Powered

Things just went upside down as electric vehicles cost more to drive 100 miles than gas-powered cars, a new study shows.

www.motorbiscuit.com

Would love to see a true short and long term breakdown of costs. My 2014 focus cost 14k new. Gets a honest 41mpg highway. Has not cost a cent other than tires and oil changes, and one battery. Change my own oil every 5k, for about $27.
Thats it in 85k. No other costs. And its rated low emissions. Will be good for over 200k easy.
And the cheapest ev is going to save money? No way.
We travel 900 miles in a day some times, 400 plus in a day often. Would buy a ev if still working, and could steal ac from work, and had another car to drive on trips. But it would cost too much. And I refuse to ignore the glaring pollution and deaths associated with cobalt mines.

 

[old greybeard]

Good data. Someone should do the same on dollars!

Honestly, anyone arguing against BEV's from an environmental angle is an idiot, and anyone arguing against them on ethical concerns is not being honest with themselves. I love conserving carbon as much as the next guy , but Americans usually vote with their wallet first, and everything else second. It's an ugly truth, but it's the truth, nonetheless.

Idiot? There’s the closed mind tolerant viewpoint from the fanatics.

 

[EbS-P]

Good data. Someone should do the same on dollars!

Honestly, anyone arguing against BEV's from an environmental angle is an idiot, and anyone arguing against them on ethical concerns is not being honest with themselves. I love conserving carbon as much as the next guy , but Americans usually vote with their wallet first, and everything else second. It's an ugly truth, but it's the truth, nonetheless.

The fact that teslas are selling so well I think is proof that there is a growing population that are willing to spend more up front for less carbon emissions and savings. Gas at $3.50 a gallon electricity at $0.14 kWh, I save 170$ every 1000 miles figuring 16 mpg. So let’s call it $2k a year. Scale it for you milage and electric cost. With the tax credit I don’t see how this doesn’t work out as a cost savings for vehicles like the Bolt, 3,Y, MachE.

 

[EbS-P]

And now a report is out that shows its more expensive to charge a ev to go 100 miles than it is to pay for gas.

Upside Down: Study Reveals EVs Cost More to Drive Than Gas-Powered

Things just went upside down as electric vehicles cost more to drive 100 miles than gas-powered cars, a new study shows.

www.motorbiscuit.com

Would love to see a true short and long term breakdown of costs. My 2014 focus cost 14k new. Gets a honest 41mpg highway. Has not cost a cent other than tires and oil changes, and one battery. Change my own oil every 5k, for about $27.
Thats it in 85k. No other costs. And its rated low emissions. Will be good for over 200k easy.
And the cheapest ev is going to save money? No way.
We travel 900 miles in a day some times, 400 plus in a day often. Would buy a ev if still working, and could steal ac from work, and had another car to drive on trips. But it would cost too much. And I refuse to ignore the glaring pollution and deaths associated with cobalt mines.

I looked at the cost of the charger alone and the costs used seem inflated

 

[bholler]

And now a report is out that shows its more expensive to charge a ev to go 100 miles than it is to pay for gas.

Upside Down: Study Reveals EVs Cost More to Drive Than Gas-Powered

Things just went upside down as electric vehicles cost more to drive 100 miles than gas-powered cars, a new study shows.

www.motorbiscuit.com

Would love to see a true short and long term breakdown of costs. My 2014 focus cost 14k new. Gets a honest 41mpg highway. Has not cost a cent other than tires and oil changes, and one battery. Change my own oil every 5k, for about $27.
Thats it in 85k. No other costs. And its rated low emissions. Will be good for over 200k easy.
And the cheapest ev is going to save money? No way.
We travel 900 miles in a day some times, 400 plus in a day often. Would buy a ev if still working, and could steal ac from work, and had another car to drive on trips. But it would cost too much. And I refuse to ignore the glaring pollution and deaths associated with cobalt mines.

Did you read the study? They are figuring the price of electricity at about $2.50 a kw hour and ice mpgs at over 40.

Btw assuming a focus is going to last 200k without atleast a transmission replacement is a pretty big assumption. And your new price of 14k is low from what I saw. But yes the cheapest ice vehicles are cheaper that the cheapest EVs but that's mainly because there aren't any EVs that are as stripped down as the lowest end gas cars

 

[bholler]

And I refuse to ignore the glaring pollution and deaths associated with cobalt mines.

But will ignore the pollution and deaths associated with gasoline production and use?

 

[begreen]

A municipality near me has already done the outdoor testing for you. These were mounted outdoors years ago:

They've lived through daily use by the municipality employees, and public use. (Free Public use is limited to 7am-4pm). I liked the "cord wrap" design of the Clipper Creek units so much, I have bought several just like this one. (One for my sister, one for my house, one for my second house).

Here's the other brand the same municipality installed:


Both brands have been mounted to a lighted marine power pedestal like you would find in a marina. I find the power pedestal a little overkill, but the municipality also uses these pedestals sprinkled throughout the park as customer hookups for their vendors at their weekly "green market" and bazar.

If you're thinking "Oooh, that's unsightly, I couldn't mount that to the front of my house!". From the average car passing on the street, these are about as unsightly as a garden hose reel with a hose hanging on it, especially if you face the side with LED's parallel with the street, so that cars passing by see a black hose sized cord draped around a cord hanger. The Clipper Creek HCS-40 came in gray or black housings, and landscaping can be used to hide lots of things.

The sad irony is that in Europe, most EVs come with a cord that detaches from both ends, allowing the EV owner to "bring their own cord" when they visit public Level2 charging stations, or charge at home. A home EVSE would be much easier to disguise on a house if the US used the detachable cord system.

I put a Clipper Creek L2 unit in my garage in 2013. It's been very reliable. Note that the Chevy Volt and Bolt come with detached cord systems for on-location charging. This is all some people use at home. I thought Teslas had the same, but I don't own one.

 

[SpaceBus]

What really frustrates me is how many words are required to explain seemingly simple topics to people. When the word use increases, the audience will slowly become less and less interested. However, it's really easy to be loud and short in speech and block discourse indefinitely; for those uninterested in having discourse that disagrees with their own idyls.

 

[SpaceBus]

My wordcount rule for most social media is: my post must fit in the "turd" background for Facebook posts.

 

[begreen]

It's easy to spread disinformation because it takes just a few words to make a misstatement, but it may take a lot of words and time to disprove them. This is a common tactic these days in social media, some cable networks, and sadly now in our governing bodies. Even if proved wrong, the damage is done, by sowing seeds of doubt. This method of planting distrust is straight out of the KGB handbook for disrupting societies.

 

[DBoon]

My 2014 focus cost 14k new. Gets a honest 41mpg highway. Has not cost a cent other than tires and oil changes, and one battery. Change my own oil every 5k, for about $27.
Thats it in 85k. No other costs. And its rated low emissions. Will be good for over 200k easy.
And the cheapest ev is going to save money? No way.

Save you money on overall costs when you buy a car for $14k? Probably not. But the fuel costs compared to a car that gets 41 mpg are about 1/3, and there have been many published reports that a BEV costs about $800 to $1000 less per year in maintenance over the life of the car.

I had an equivalent car (2015 Chevy Sonic) that regularly got me 45 mpg on the highway in the summer, 40 or so in the winter. I had 150k miles on it, and not much maintenance. My Bolt EV costs me 1/3 as much to "fuel" per mile, and that was when gas was $2.75/gallon. You could argue that the payback period was never (based on fuel savings alone), but the 2019 Bolt that I bought is a way better car than the Sonic - faster acceleration, quieter, better interior (despite what people say about it), better sound system, etc. etc. Nowadays, the Bolt is priced even less than when I bought it. The gap is there compared to the least expensive cars, but it is narrowing quickly.

 

[Ashful]

Idiot? There’s the closed mind tolerant viewpoint from the fanatics.

Fanatic? My daily drivers are one 6.4L Hemi sedan, a 5.7L Hemi pickup truck, and a 5.7L Hemi SUV. I'm not exactly what you'd call an environmentalist. When I buy an EV, it will be for reasons based entirely on performance and cost, not for carbon footprint reduction.

But I am an engineer and I can read, so I'm not going to pull at fake reasons to argue against EV's from an environmental perspective. There are much better arguments against them, primarily the one I named above (initial cost) and availability of certain vehicle types (eg. 7 seat SUV's or pick trucks), if you really feel a need to argue with progress.

 

[Ashful]

...many published reports that a BEV costs about $800 to $1000 less per year in maintenance over the life of the car.

I believe these numbers are disingenuous, likely comparing average 12.2 year old ICE maintenance costs to a much newer fleet of BEV's.

My sum total of ICE vehicle repairs has amortized to less than $10 per year (one $140 item in the last 18 years), and even that was a self-inflicted injury. Other than one specialty car that gets two oil changes per year, I change the oil and filter once per year for under $50 per vehicle. So I'm not sure how I'd be saving $800 - $1000 per year in maintenance.

But the average ICE on the road today is 12.2 years old, according to US DOT registration statistics. That means for every one of us that sells our vehicles at 10 - 12 years of age, there's another keeping them past 20 years of age. They're weighting the curve on these maintenance stat's, particularly when the average BEV to which they're comparing it is likely less than 3 years old.

 

[EbS-P]

I believe these numbers are disingenuous, likely comparing average 12.2 year old ICE maintenance costs to a much newer fleet of BEV's.

My sum total of ICE vehicle repairs has amortized to less than $10 per year (one $140 item in the last 18 years), and even that was a self-inflicted injury. Other than one specialty car that gets two oil changes per year, I change the oil and filter once per year for under $50 per vehicle. So I'm not sure how I'd be saving $800 - $1000 per year in maintenance.

But the average ICE on the road today is 12.2 years old, according to US DOT registration statistics. That means for every one of us that sells our vehicles at 10 - 12 years of age, there's another keeping them past 20 years of age. They're weighting the curve on these maintenance stat's, particularly when the average BEV to which they're comparing it is likely less than 3 years old.

Your experience is outstanding but probably an outlier and.

Most people don’t change their own oil. Most people don’t drive a Focus.

Most of the nation’s mileage is not driven in a 12.2 year old vehicle.

If you own your car outright and it’s been reliable and does need replaced, unless you are a high mileage drives living where gas is high you probably won’t save all that much.

I can make the arguments that the average member of the forum is not representative of the average citizen.

Run your own numbers is not hard. See if worth it. All this “my ICE is cheaper” talk just make me realize that the US, by not instituting some form of carbon tax, is facing an uphill battle to reduce emissions.

 

[Ashful]

All this “my ICE is cheaper” talk just make me realize that the US, by not instituting some form of carbon tax, is facing an uphill battle to reduce emissions.

Only in the short term, I think. BEV’s will get cheaper, as the ratio of R&D costs to units sold comes down. They’re mechanically much simpler, there’s no reason to think they cannot eventually be cost-comparative, as material supply chains mature.

 

[EbS-P]

Only in the short term, I think. BEV’s will get cheaper, as the ratio of R&D costs to units sold comes down. They’re mechanically much simpler, there’s no reason to think they cannot eventually be cost-comparative, as material supply chains mature.

Tesla locked in multi year (decade??? No one really knows) aluminum prices and are probably paying half the current market price. Every car needs R and D and software now. Ground up R and D is more expensive but I don’t see how R and D costs are driving EV costs batteries aside. Batteries are the cost drivers. That’s where the cost is now. Tesla not having a dealer network is saving loads of money. That can’t be ignored. Big car dealerships are some of the biggest companies in many states.

My prediction is that Stellanis gets bought out by (or they just sell the Dodge brand to prop up the company) to some Chinese automaker to sell cars in the US under the Dodge brand.

 

[SpaceBus]

Tesla locked in multi year (decade??? No one really knows) aluminum prices and are probably paying half the current market price. Every car needs R and D and software now. Ground up R and D is more expensive but I don’t see how R and D costs are driving EV costs batteries aside. Batteries are the cost drivers. That’s where the cost is now. Tesla not having a dealer network is saving loads of money. That can’t be ignored. Big car dealerships are some of the biggest companies in many states.

My prediction is that Stellanis gets bought out by (or they just sell the Dodge brand to prop up the company) to some Chinese automaker to sell cars in the US under the Dodge brand.

Maybe Stellantis can do with the Chinese as Chrysler did with Mitsubishi up until the Cerberus merger. Although I think there was still some collaboration with Japanese brands even after the merger. Without Chrysler maybe Mitsubishi would not have gotten a foothold in the US.

 

[woodgeek]

Save you money on overall costs when you buy a car for $14k? Probably not. But the fuel costs compared to a car that gets 41 mpg are about 1/3, and there have been many published reports that a BEV costs about $800 to $1000 less per year in maintenance over the life of the car.

I had an equivalent car (2015 Chevy Sonic) that regularly got me 45 mpg on the highway in the summer, 40 or so in the winter. I had 150k miles on it, and not much maintenance. My Bolt EV costs me 1/3 as much to "fuel" per mile, and that was when gas was $2.75/gallon. You could argue that the payback period was never (based on fuel savings alone), but the 2019 Bolt that I bought is a way better car than the Sonic - faster acceleration, quieter, better interior (despite what people say about it), better sound system, etc. etc. Nowadays, the Bolt is priced even less than when I bought it. The gap is there compared to the least expensive cars, but it is narrowing quickly.

My 2022 Chevy Bolt, tricked out, is only about $24k MSRP new after rebate. The MSRP for a new Chevy Sonic is $16.7k. So you only need to make up $8k over 150k miles... or 5 cents a mile to break even.

Just saying.

And it is a way better car.

 

[Ashful]

My 2022 Chevy Bolt, tricked out, is only about $24k MSRP new after rebate. The MSRP for a new Chevy Sonic is $16.7k.

I'll answer EbS-P's post by quoting woodgeek's.

That's literally 44% more! That "only $8k" difference might as well be $50k to most people actually shopping $16k new vehicles. The fraction of our population buying $16k vehicles, who could easily afford $24k, must be vanishingly small.

FWIW, I found a similar differential higher end vehicles, but without the "way bettter". Tesla's largest "SUV", really a glorified 5-seater hatchback, compared to Escalade and Durango SRT. The Tesla was $109k, versus Durango and Escalade both $65k - $75k. But the Durango and Escalade could tow a tandem-axle trailer and seat 7 with room to spare in back and on roof rack for luggage and a kayak, whereas the Tesla could do none of these things.

 

[SpaceBus]

I'll answer EbS-P's post by quoting woodgeek's.

That's literally 44% more! That "only $8k" difference might as well be $50k to most people actually shopping $16k new vehicles. The fraction of our population buying $16k vehicles, who could easily afford $24k, must be vanishingly small.

FWIW, I found a similar differential higher end vehicles, but without the "way bettter". Tesla's largest "SUV", really a glorified 5-seater hatchback, compared to Escalade and Durango SRT. The Tesla was $109k, versus Durango and Escalade both $65k - $75k. But the Durango and Escalade could tow a tandem-axle trailer and seat 7 with room to spare in back and on roof rack for luggage and a kayak, whereas the Tesla could do none of these things.

What kind of weight do you tow with the SRT? It does have a pretty beefy tow rating. Apparently Europeans who want to tow stuff buy luxury brand SUVs as there aren't many beefy non-luxury brand options overseas.