The reports are not from fleet users, its from used vehicle auctions commenting on the low prices used EVs get.. Take a look at Ebay on used EV prices using the option for transactions that actually were completed versus what people are asking, you will see that the prices are quite low compared to the original cost of the cars. I have know of one EV user that bought one who was quite distressed when his job changed and needed to trade in his now used EV to the dealer he bought it from in less than two years and the trade in offered was about a 1/3 of what he paid for it. The local large Chevy dealer near me will only special order Volts as they have been stuck with too many on the lot, that end up getting cleared out at a loss.
I understand that you are 100% advocate of the technology and want to spread your zeal to others, my point is that EVs are still in the early adoption phase where they are being bought by those willing to put up with still significant limitations that would preclude their purchase by the general population.
Sure. The resale on EVs is terrible compared to ICE cars. The former is a rapidly evolving technology, where products are getting better and cheaper (relative to performance) at a rapid clip, the latter is a mature or post-mature technology, where the prices have been climbing steadily for years (along with complexity) creating a significant food-chain and demand for affordable used cars. That is why most folks LEASE their EVs, and don't buy them. Add to this the fact that the first 40k LEAFs sold in the US had cr@p batteries because corporate forced engineering into early release....and those cars are now nearly worthless.
I won't deny my zealousness...or the fact that existing (or near future) battery EVs do not fit the use model of many American car drivers.
I think strong hybrids like the Prius are struggling due to low gas prices (you need a LOT of miles, more than an average commute, to make up the upfront cost). Plug-in hybrids also have a high upfront cost because of their complex, ICE drivetrains, and the cost saving from electric miles make them only slightly more favorable than a Prius at current gas prices. I think both are and will continue to struggle on a 'cost/complexity' basis despite being useable for 100% of driver's use cases.
But battery EVs are another story entirely. The limited (~100 mile) 'no-wait' range make the car fine for nearly all commuters, but lousy for road-trips. Fortunately, there are a LOT of single commuter families and most of those commute <40 miles/day and already own 2+ cars. Think about how many families like that you know. Is it 3% of families, or 30%? For these families the lack of an ICE drivetrain reduces the upfront and maintenance costs of the car, significantly improving the economic analysis, even with cheap gas.
So, I claim that while 100% of drivers could us a plug-in hybrid or hybrid exclusively, most people don't want them based upon performance or cost. The apparent ceiling on Prius sales would seem to agree with this. But turning to battery EVs however, I claim that 30% of families have a perfect commuting use model (owning a second larger car for roadtrips), and that such cars' sales ceiling is thus 15% of unit sales, if costs continue to fall and practical range does not increase.
I think BEV sales (about 0.7% of US light vehicle sales in 2016) are held back by fear and unfamiliarity, as with all new technology. It's one thing to try something new when the investment is small (like a new kind of phone or appliance), but another thing entirely when its a big-ticket item that affects your ability to get to work. I am not surprised that most people (sensibly skeptical of advertising, or having been burned by new tech before) won't consider a BEV until they see their neighbors or family members have an extended successful user experience. But that is still compatible with every BEV sold selling three more after two years (my personal case), which is a 50% annual growth rate.
So 50% possible growth rate (realized in the US when gas was more expensive), combined with the 15% sale ceiling above means that BEVs could become a mainstream option in the US by 2020. In locations with higher gas taxes (EU) or better incentives (China) annual sales growth rates have been 50-100% over the last year.
My question would also be who covers clean-up and capping?
