Norway on track to reach 100% EV sales in the next 2 years

[bholler]

So how many gas stations are there compared to recharging stations? How long does a EV battery pack last compared to a power train? I’m not against electric, I just think we have a long way to go to make it work.

Just read an article that in the UK EV charging stations just surpassed the cost of gas.

Clearly right now there are many more gas stations but there are lots of charging stations going in quickly.

Many of the fleet teslas used as taxies etc are well over 200k miles with no issues.

What do you mean by the cost of ev charging surpassing cost of gas? How are the units being compared?

 

[begreen]

The batteries need to get better. I’ve heard of people not even making it half way from Duluth to Minneapolis in the winter months. Another guy bought a used one, drove it for a month and it wouldn’t hold a charge, had to fork out $13k for new battery pack. I think we have a ways to go.

The latter case is an exception and I don't think it is common, except on a higher mileage or older EV. Otherwise the warranty would cover this.

In general, the current crop of battery packs in EVs and PHEVs are doing relatively well. Manufacturers tend to rate them conservatively.

 

[SpaceBus]

So how many gas stations are there compared to recharging stations? How long does a EV battery pack last compared to a power train? I’m not against electric, I just think we have a long way to go to make it work.

Just read an article that in the UK EV charging stations just surpassed the cost of gas.

The first gas stations were super expensive, we are comparing tech in its infancy to fully developed and mature tech. If you run out of gas in the middle of a desert or far from a gas station, you are waiting the same as an EV. Sure, you can top off the fuel tank fairly quickly by bringing fuel, but it's not that much longer to get enough EV range to make it to a fast charger. Furthermore, can you gas up at home? You can literally put an EV charger anywhere there's a grid connection, but you can't say the same about fuel tanks. How is storing thousands of gallons of extremely volatile and toxic substances next to schools, hospitals, neighborhoods, etc. better than charging stations? What about all the human health costs associated with fossil fuels and their associated fumes and combustion products?

Again, what is your suggestion?

It's not a hobby for me I need 3/4 ton minimum to haul what I need to haul. I could absolutely use electric though if one becomes available in basic work truck trim

Europe has the equivalent size and capacity trucks, just usually only commercial vehicles. Somehow people in Asia, Europe, and Africa manage to tow campers, ATVs, etc. with vehicles with far less capability than 1/2 ton and larger pickups. Seems that just the Western hemisphere can't get by without them. Usually only farmers or contractors own any kind of pickup truck outside of the US/Canada.

 

[bholler]

The first gas stations were super expensive, we are comparing tech in its infancy to fully developed and mature tech. If you run out of gas in the middle of a desert or far from a gas station, you are waiting the same as an EV. Sure, you can top off the fuel tank fairly quickly by bringing fuel, but it's not that much longer to get enough EV range to make it to a fast charger. Furthermore, can you gas up at home? You can literally put an EV charger anywhere there's a grid connection, but you can't say the same about fuel tanks. How is storing thousands of gallons of extremely volatile and toxic substances next to schools, hospitals, neighborhoods, etc. better than charging stations? What about all the human health costs associated with fossil fuels and their associated fumes and combustion products?

Again, what is your suggestion?


Europe has the equivalent size and capacity trucks, just usually only commercial vehicles. Somehow people in Asia, Europe, and Africa manage to tow campers, ATVs, etc. with vehicles with far less capability than 1/2 ton and larger pickups. Seems that just the Western hemisphere can't get by without them. Usually only farmers or contractors own any kind of pickup truck outside of the US/Canada.

Oh I know what you are referring to. And agree I was just saying there are plenty of us who really do need heavier trucks to make a living

 

[woodgeek]

I"m late to this thread....

EV adoption in new vehicles is predicted to pass 50% around 2028. I would say this is ±2 years, depending on supply/cost issues. The adoption tail on these things (per @Ashful ) is long, but doesn't really matter re emissions. Pulling forward the 50% point is where the benefit is for the climate.

It was 6% in the US last year. And the global figure last year was 10%. The US is behind the curve. Japan is bringing up the rear. China is in the lead, EU is ahead of the curve.

China is ramping down its incentives on EVs in 2023. It will be interesting to see if EVs there are Wile-E Coyote running off a cliff.

Largest global makers are BYD and Tesla... VW is a distant third, everyone else is noise. BYD is already selling well in Aus and EU. If the US legacy makers don't get in gear, BYD will shortly be a second Tesla crowding the global market. Both BYD and Tesla have way lower production costs (due to engineering and scale) than the legacy makers. So the legacy makers are keeping prices high, and supply low. They could still have a price war/wall keeping them from having the same market share in EVs as they currently have in ICE.

For long haul trucking the issue is total cost of ownership, TCO. Unlike individuals, the trucking companies want to make money. On routes where the Tesla semi works (bc of charging) it looks like it has stupid lower TCO over a period like 2 years (a great payback time). And the drivers love them... much easier and less exhausting the drive. So I think the demand will be there, and Tesla will build the MW chargers as needed, to keep up with their supply. How long will all that take... Tesla is a startup, so they are good with managing 40% CAGR. That doubles every 1.5-2 years, goes up by 30X in 7-10 years, 1000X in 15-20. Sounds about right to me. 12-15 years minimum... 2035-2038.

If the model S started selling in 2012, and the US reaches 50% EVs in 2028, that is 16 years.

I think EV batteries should last longer. The mandated 8 year 80000 mile warranty (to sell in the US) is great, but we don't know how well cars will do past year 12-15. Yet. I bet it will vary with make. In the meantime, folks who like to buy cars and drive them for 20 years will be mad. Do you buy a computer and try to use it for 10 years? In a few years, most EVs will be LFPs instead of the current chemistries... and those are both cobalt free and have impressive longevity.

 

[SpaceBus]

Oh I know what you are referring to. And agree I was just saying there are plenty of us who really do need heavier trucks to make a living

I myself own a 06 Ram 3500 LWB 4x4 dually diesel, but I use it for farm stuff and (someone will cringe) a hunting rig. I could probably make due with an EV version of my truck, since I rarely leave the county with it. My original point is that the demographic that "needs" a 1/2 ton truck or larger for their hobbies only exists in the US and Canada. Everyone else in the world makes due with much less, unless of course that truck is used to make money/work. In Australia the El Camino never lost popularity and were commonly used by farmers, GM kept on making cars with beds for that market. Last time I paid attention to cars, some ten years ago now, they were still making the so called "Utes".

 

[TWilk117]

How do you think that fossil fuels come out of the ground? They require mining and destructive techniques. At least minerals mined for batteries have a much lower lifetime carbon footprint compared to literally burning fossil fuels. Burning a single gallon of gasoline equates to just a touch less than 9,000 grams of carbon, which doesn't even include the carbon used to mine and refine crude oil into the gasoline. The "cradle-to-grave" emissions from a single gallon of gasoline comes out to around 11.14 kg. Simply staggering.

Every time I see this argument I always ask "Are you suggesting we simply do nothing?"

I’m not buying it.

 

[bholler]

I’m not buying it.

What part?

 

[EbS-P]

So how many gas stations are there compared to recharging stations? How long does a EV battery pack last compared to a power train? I’m not against electric, I just think we have a long way to go to make it work.

Just read an article that in the UK EV charging stations just surpassed the cost of gas.

I just was able to find out that supercharger near me costs 35 cents a KWh. Home charging is 14 cents. 2.5 miles per kWh.

Batteries could become a subscription item. Vinfast is offering that.

 

[Todd]

Clearly right now there are many more gas stations but there are lots of charging stations going in quickly.

Many of the fleet teslas used as taxies etc are well over 200k miles with no issues.

What do you mean by the cost of ev charging surpassing cost of gas? How are the units being compared?

It was an article I came across in the Telegraph. Something about the cost of charging just surpassed what it would cost to gas up in a gas vehicle. I’m sure they have much higher electricity costs over there as well as taxes. That will happen here as well, you have to pay for road maintenance somehow as they receive less and less gas tax. We’ll also need a huge long overdue investment into our electric grid. Solar panels and windmills won’t be able to pull the load. Maybe Nuclear?

 

[bholler]

It was an article I came across in the Telegraph. Something about the cost of charging just surpassed what it would cost to gas up in a gas vehicle. I’m sure they have much higher electricity costs over there as well as taxes. That will happen here as well, you have to pay for road maintenance somehow as they receive less and less gas tax. We’ll also need a huge long overdue investment into our electric grid. Solar panels and windmills won’t be able to pull the load. Maybe Nuclear?

Without knowing how or what they are comparing it's hard to judge. It could very easily be manipulated be what vehicle the are filling with gas compared to the size of the battery being charged

 

[begreen]

It was an article I came across in the Telegraph. Something about the cost of charging just surpassed what it would cost to gas up in a gas vehicle. I’m sure they have much higher electricity costs over there as well as taxes. That will happen here as well, you have to pay for road maintenance somehow as they receive less and less gas tax. We’ll also need a huge long overdue investment into our electric grid. Solar panels and windmills won’t be able to pull the load. Maybe Nuclear?

The costs of operation of an EV vs an ICE vehicle, are not in the same ballpark. There are no oil changes, spark plugs, belts, timing changes, power steering hydraulics, transmission flushes, and repairs. The brakes may last the life of the car. Many states, including WA do add a hwy use tax for the EV, but the state offers incentives that balance that out for several years of ownership. Insurance is fairly normal. The resale value is good, and the vehicle is typically good on the original battery for 150k-200k miles. The cost of charging is significantly less than the cost of gasoline in WA state. If one only drives 10k miles a year, there's your 20 yr car. (PS: a 10 yr old computer is fine if it was a good one when purchased. That's what I am typing on right now.)

 

[GrumpyDad]

How do you think that fossil fuels come out of the ground? They require mining and destructive techniques. At least minerals mined for batteries have a much lower lifetime carbon footprint compared to literally burning fossil fuels. Burning a single gallon of gasoline equates to just a touch less than 9,000 grams of carbon, which doesn't even include the carbon used to mine and refine crude oil into the gasoline. The "cradle-to-grave" emissions from a single gallon of gasoline comes out to around 11.14 kg. Simply staggering.

Every time I see this argument I always ask "Are you suggesting we simply do nothing?"

Sure. Do nothing. Do something. Electric will create just as much carbon.
And do we really care? There's a lot of science out there that seems to be geared toward motives. I personally would like the cleanest air possible so at a minimum that would be my interest. Can I get that if everyone sacrifices the cut over to electric cars and the headaches involved there?
Eventually we have to get there right? There is only so much we can take from the earth. Electric requires coal to be generated. What then? Nuclear of course. But will we run out of resources there or get sick or having glowing families due to leaks, or not want to risk having such targets run out infrastructure.
I have no answers. I don't trust many people anymore. I would like to get an ev and virtue signal. .

 

[GrumpyDad]

The costs of operation of an EV vs an ICE vehicle, are not in the same ballpark. There are no oil changes, spark plugs, belts, timing changes, power steering hydraulics, transmission flushes, and repairs. The brakes may last the life of the car. Many states, including WA do add a hwy use tax for the EV, but the state offers incentives that balance that out for several years of ownership. Insurance is fairly normal. The resale value is good, and the vehicle is typically good on the original battery for 150k-200k miles. The cost of charging is significantly less than the cost of gasoline in WA state. If one only drives 10k miles a year, there's your 20 yr car. (PS: a 10 yr old computer is fine if it was a good one when purchased. That's what I am typing on right now.)

I doubt the batteries will last that long or be nearly as efficient. You may have a care free maintenance item that is essentially a doorstop in 15 years. Aren't alot of people that only drive 10k miles per year. Heck I know a guy that drive a thousand a week.
I own a Honda, so all of that maintenance talk is meaningless to me. Sure I've changed the brakes a couple of times and of course the tires. I do oil changes every 15k miles...takes 10 minutes.
I do feel lousy when I gas up. I think about this at times. The volume of a gal times 17. That's a lot! Yet a week later we are at it again. Multiple that by all the people in my town or state how big of a container would it take to house that fuel and what really happens after it's burned? We breath it in. It lands on things. Goes into the atmosphere. What is the effect. I don't trust many studies or scientists as they are all looking to make a name for themselves, and don't get me started about the Hollywood types or politicians that have an IQ of 82 and simply parrot what they hear. Sure some of it can be trusted but it is surprising what data is not being included at times, and we only figure it out many years down the road. Hey the Chinese figured it all out, the earths core is now spinning in the opposite direction. Since 2009. Who knows, if true, what impact that has on climate.

 

[Ashful]

How does the rest of the world enjoy their hobbies without half ton or larger trucks?

I've lived all over Europe, and have brought several German's and Frenchie's back here with me for work. The first thing every damn one of them has done is to go shopping for their first pickup truck, upon arrival.

So, to answer your question directly... what do they do? Envy us.

I understand your point, though. They're often not necessary, it's a luxury.

 

[bholler]

Sure. Do nothing. Do something. Electric will create just as much carbon.

How? Every step along the way running vehicles on electricity is more efficient. Even if the power is produced with coal. Which is getting les and less common.

 

[bholler]

I doubt the batteries will last that long or be nearly as efficient. You may have a care free maintenance item that is essentially a doorstop in 15 years. Aren't alot of people that only drive 10k miles per year. Heck I know a guy that drive a thousand a week.
I own a Honda, so all of that maintenance talk is meaningless to me. Sure I've changed the brakes a couple of times and of course the tires. I do oil changes every 15k miles...takes 10 minutes.
I do feel lousy when I gas up. I think about this at times. The volume of a gal times 17. That's a lot! Yet a week later we are at it again. Multiple that by all the people in my town or state how big of a container would it take to house that fuel and what really happens after it's burned? We breath it in. It lands on things. Goes into the atmosphere. What is the effect. I don't trust many studies or scientists as they are all looking to make a name for themselves, and don't get me started about the Hollywood types or politicians that have an IQ of 82 and simply parrot what they hear. Sure some of it can be trusted but it is surprising what data is not being included at times, and we only figure it out many years down the road. Hey the Chinese figured it all out, the earths core is now spinning in the opposite direction. Since 2009. Who knows, if true, what impact that has on climate.

If you don't trust the scientific studies that the world scientific community agrees on what do you trust?

And what are you talking about with the core spinning the other direction?

 

[SpaceBus]

Sure. Do nothing. Do something. Electric will create just as much carbon.
And do we really care? There's a lot of science out there that seems to be geared toward motives. I personally would like the cleanest air possible so at a minimum that would be my interest. Can I get that if everyone sacrifices the cut over to electric cars and the headaches involved there?
Eventually we have to get there right? There is only so much we can take from the earth. Electric requires coal to be generated. What then? Nuclear of course. But will we run out of resources there or get sick or having glowing families due to leaks, or not want to risk having such targets run out infrastructure.
I have no answers. I don't trust many people anymore. I would like to get an ev and virtue signal. .

So this is all just your opinion with no references, education, or anything? Have you performed life cycle analysis for ICE vs EV? I too want cleaner air, but I recognize that EVs are just a stepping stone.

 

[Ashful]

Aren't alot of people that only drive 10k miles per year. Heck I know a guy that drive a thousand a week.

You need to check your facts. In fact, the "per vehicle" average mileage is indeed trending toward 10k per year, or not far from it, even before COVID and work from home.

Unfortunately, I wasn't able to find any easily-qualified data showing the actual distribution in recent years, as I suspect the bell curve is weighted toward the bottom. In other words, I suspect the average shown above is above 50th percentile, with huge numbers hovering in the 9k's, and a few high-earners (the very small 20k+ crowd) pulling the average up.

 

[GrumpyDad]

I've lived all over Europe, and have brought several German's and Frenchie's back here with me for work. The first thing every damn one of them has done is to go shopping for their first pickup truck, upon arrival.

So, to answer your question directly... what do they do? Envy us.

I understand your point, though. They're often not necessary, it's a luxury.

Bullcrap it's our god given right to drive around in the biggest most wasteful monster we can while we sit idling in bumper to bumper traffic!!
We have a sizable suv and every weekend I'm playing Tetris trying to pack it. During the week though it has one occupant. Total waste of space BUT it's safer being in this SUV than it is being in a tiny car when against a truck. This it is a daily driver for wife and not just a weekend adventure vehicle.
If they force people to downsize their vehicles I would consider a smaller vehicle with a roof topper storage.

 

[EbS-P]

Bullcrap it's our god given right to drive around in the biggest most wasteful monster we can while we sit idling in bumper to bumper traffic!!
We have a sizable suv and every weekend I'm playing Tetris trying to pack it. During the week though it has one occupant. Total waste of space BUT it's safer being in this SUV than it is being in a tiny car when against a truck. This it is a daily driver for wife and not just a weekend adventure vehicle.
If they force people to downsize their vehicles I would consider a smaller vehicle with a roof topper storage.

I’d do a hitch box before roof top.

 

[clancey]

There is a whole agenda with these EV and a lot of it is very bad for the environment like strip mining and all the ingredients that makes the batteries as well as them being "fire hazards" especially when they are flooded and some times they are parked in the garage and they catch on fire---its just a stepping stone until better ways can evolve. Sure I can see the beautiful smooth ride and no tail pipe pollution and the instant reflexes with the vehicle---heck I love my electric grass cutter but really more work has to be done on these "so called green things"---Your just a group of people who love "cars and trucks"--I can understand that but with all the "other" things to consider right now I believe it needs to be worked on more. Also maybe start thinking about your personal privacy as well as the freedom to work on your own vehicle to keep it in shape (oil changing and tire changing) as well as the grid concerns. To me these are just the stepping stone until they can really get them and make them "trust worthy", as well as faster "recharge" and that recharge will not be cheap as well as the time element. Good for Norway but we in this country as a whole needs a whole bunch of work to make them safe as well as environmentally safe where electricity is concerned especially under the road ways to have electric trucks and things of that nature. This to me is the beginning of taking driving privileges away from the poor classes and put everyone in electric car pools to take them to work..I am old and won't be here but you just need to weight the real benefits verses the real hazards. Try putting out the fire when a electric vehicle catches on fire.. For me this is just a stepping point until they get really good at this with proper know how to make them safe for people and the environment. So now we can watch Norway with careful judgments being made...clancey
"

 

[Jan Pijpelink]

As a petroleum chemist, I am all in for protecting the environment. But I see some disadvantages of electrical vehicles.
Lithium for the batteries is in very limited supply. The largest reserve is in Afghanistan. Not easy to get your hands on.
The warranty for the batteries is limited to 150k miles. Batteries are very expensive. A guy in Finland was charged $22,000 for new batteries after his Tesla was no longer under warranty.
EV's catch fire frequently. This month already 3 in The Netherlands. Lithium batteries produce Oxygen, so these fires are impossible to put out.
Mining Lithium is very environmentally unfriendly. To produce the batteries, harsh chemicals are needed and they end up in our soil and water.

 

[TWilk117]

What part?

An electric vehicle for one, or the idea that they are better for the environment.
I see a future problem of disposing mass quantities of useless batteries that can’t hold a charge anymore.
I know you said no politics and I will try to abide, but the fact of the matter is that every couple of years fear mongering Al Gore goes to one of these summits and raises the number of Hiroshima nuclear bombs going off every single day by 100,000. I think he is full of sh!+ and I believe all this climate change and green new deal nonsense is a farce to usher in their great reset new world order agenda.
I know I have my tinfoil hat on.

 

[Jan Pijpelink]

There is not yet a fixed solution for disposing of old batteries that won't hurt the environment. It seems nobody wants to talk about that.

The University of Frankfurt researched the environmental effect of battery production and they concluded that the production of a set of 4 Tesla batteries is more harmful than driving 100k miles with a 1989 Mercedes 300 Diesel.