EV developments

[EbS-P]

So…. I don’t think we will see any Chinese EVs state side for 5 years. As long as the Tariffs are in place there sales won’t competitive even if they are allowed. Now I think you could see a major move by a Chinese entity to buy Stelantis. Retool some US manufacturing plant and sell something over here. But I think if they closed a deal today you are still looking at several year to get cars rolling of an assembly line and now one must think how competitive will they be without Chinese subsidies.

At any rate, all major automakers Ford GM Stelantis, Toyota, are at a major disadvantage on the global EV market. But one really good product can be disruptive

 

[sloeffle]

I'm assuming this article is legit since it wasn't written about Tesla.

Small, well-built Chinese EV called the Seagull poses a big threat to the US auto industry

The car, Seagull, launched last year by Chinese automaker BYD, sells for around $12,000 in China.

apnews.com

 

[woodgeek]

I'm assuming this article is legit since it wasn't written about Tesla.

Small, well-built Chinese EV called the Seagull poses a big threat to the US auto industry

The car, Seagull, launched last year by Chinese automaker BYD, sells for around $12,000 in China.

apnews.com

Yup.

"Ford CEO Jim Farley has seen Caresoft’s work on the Seagull and observed BYD’s rapid growth across the globe, especially in Europe, where he used to run Ford’s operations. He’s moving to change his company. A small “skunkworks” team is designing a new, small EV from the ground up to keep costs down and quality high, he told analysts earlier this year."

What Farley didn't say was how much $$$ Ford was putting into the effort. This is critical. Ford and GM think they are 'too big to fail' and will get bailed out when the time comes. Tesla thinks if it doesn't innovate like mad, it will be bankrupt in 2026.

You can see the difference in their mindset in what they are selling and profit/EV.

 

[begreen]

The reason BYD and Zeeker are threatening is that they are making nicer quality, more affordable, and more practically-sized vehicles, for the average commuter and suburban, 2-child family. This is not unlike what the Japanese did in the 1980s and then the Koreans in the 2000s. They have fully-featured products ready to sell while the big 3 dangle concepts which only the top-end versions are equivalently equipped and most of those models are not affordable to the median income family. Tesla has been able to insert itself into this space, but their cars have a lot of shortcomings that make them less practical or desirable. The US market is ripe for disruption and the Chinese know it. Their cars may be lower priced, but most are not cheaply made. They often have better quality components, finish, and features than available in the current US and European markets.

What will be their first entry-point? My guess is that it will be through the Geely/Zeekr/Volvo dealers. I also suspect that BYD will be selling Ford competitive EV trucks made in Mexico within 3 yrs. and they will get under the tariff radar.

 

[EbS-P]

The more time i spend with the model 3 the more I think the idea of a cheap Tesla based on the 3/Y platform makes sense. Could it be shrunk to Honda Fit or VW golf size and hit a price point 10k lower than the 3? Would Tesla just be trading model 3 sales for the the cheaper version? (Probably to some extent). What ever Tesla does or doesn’t do the 3/Y platform is the benchmark for EVs. It’s a high bar. Once the LFP batteries in the Model 3 make it tax credit eligible again it will start selling lots of units. Software locked ranged and power are a thing now for Tesla. A 185 HP model 3 with 200 miles of range could drop the entry price by a few thousand. I assume Tesla would make that money back at some point in the cars life.

 

[begreen]

This article has some notable quotes from steelworkers at the time of the Japanese car disruption:

The cost was cheaper, and their quality was better, too. We didn’t care about quality because we were the only game in town forever.
-ED COOK, FORMER PRESIDENT USW LOCAL 3069

The U.S. steelmakers and, as time wore on, the automakers, were being outperformed by Japan and their superior technology advancements. Our employers didn’t invest in new technology until recognizing the concept of foreign competition was here to stay.
-DOUG MAY, RETIRED STEELWORKER

Steelworkers Remember When Imports from Japan Caused a Crisis -- and Draw Parallels to Today - Alliance for American Manufacturing

As the U.S. and Japan look to make a deal on steel, we look back at an earlier time when dumped imports threatened American industry.

www.americanmanufacturing.org

 

[stoveliker]

I think "a few thousand" is still incremental progress as compared to the much larger difference in pricing for the Chinese cars in a similar model segment.

One question I have is the caveats given in the article that begreen posted above.
Yes, they are cheaper. But how much of that is due to labor practices (forced etc.) that I would not feel comfortable with?
How much is that because of environmental practices I would dislike?

The argument has two legs: quality is the same or better (contrary to what many folks believe in the US), AND it's lower cost.
The former is hard to deny, I think though obviously longevity data have to bear that out, but the second one has to have reasons. One reason may be better structured design process/business/supply chain management, but another contributing factor may be cost imposed on people and environment. The latter I am quite concerned about.

(I do recognize that this may be the case for any and all products made there, but that does not absolve me from not asking the question in any particular case.)

 

[EbS-P]

I think "a few thousand" is still incremental progress as compared to the much larger difference in pricing for the Chinese cars in a similar model segment.

One question I have is the caveats given in the article that begreen posted above.
Yes, they are cheaper. But how much of that is due to labor practices (forced etc.) that I would not feel comfortable with?
How much is that because of environmental practices I would dislike?

The argument has two legs: quality is the same or better (contrary to what many folks believe in the US), AND it's lower cost.
The former is hard to deny, I think though obviously longevity data have to bear that out, but the second one has to have reasons. One reason may be better structured design process/business/supply chain management, but another contributing factor may be cost imposed on people and environment. The latter I am quite concerned about.

(I do recognize that this may be the case for any and all products made there, but that does not absolve me from not asking the question in any particular case.)

I agree. The UAE has another vote comes up this week or next at a Mercedes plant I think. The VW vote last month was historic. I would prefer to buy USA or EU made and would like it to be union built but they need some competitive products. No way the 27% (I think but don’t hold me to it) import tariff on Chinese made vehicles changes in the next 4 years.

And even over seas the Chinese EVs are not selling for 20k or less.

 

[woodgeek]

The more time i spend with the model 3 the more I think the idea of a cheap Tesla based on the 3/Y platform makes sense. Could it be shrunk to Honda Fit or VW golf size and hit a price point 10k lower than the 3? Would Tesla just be trading model 3 sales for the the cheaper version? (Probably to some extent). What ever Tesla does or doesn’t do the 3/Y platform is the benchmark for EVs. It’s a high bar. Once the LFP batteries in the Model 3 make it tax credit eligible again it will start selling lots of units. Software locked ranged and power are a thing now for Tesla. A 185 HP model 3 with 200 miles of range could drop the entry price by a few thousand. I assume Tesla would make that money back at some point in the cars life.

The 'base' model 3 IS the cheap EV for the US market. And its price will drop 10% per year for the next several years.

When Tesla makes a model 2, I expect it will be sold overseas first in markets that like smaller cars.

 

[stoveliker]

I agree. The UAE has another vote comes up this week or next at a Mercedes plant I think. The VW vote last month was historic. I would prefer to buy USA or EU made and would like it to be union built but they need some competitive products. No way the 27% (I think but don’t hold me to it) import tariff on Chinese made vehicles changes in the next 4 years.

And even over seas the Chinese EVs are not selling for 20k or less.

I quote from the AP piece above:
The car, launched last year by Chinese automaker BYD, sells for around $12,000 in China, but drives well and is put together with craftsmanship that rivals U.S.-made electric vehicles that cost three times as much. A shorter-range version costs under $10,000.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

The more time i spend with the model 3 the more I think the idea of a cheap Tesla based on the 3/Y platform makes sense. Could it be shrunk to Honda Fit or VW golf size and hit a price point 10k lower than the 3? Would Tesla just be trading model 3 sales for the the cheaper version? (Probably to some extent). What ever Tesla does or doesn’t do the 3/Y platform is the benchmark for EVs. It’s a high bar. Once the LFP batteries in the Model 3 make it tax credit eligible again it will start selling lots of units. Software locked ranged and power are a thing now for Tesla. A 185 HP model 3 with 200 miles of range could drop the entry price by a few thousand. I assume Tesla would make that money back at some point in the cars life.

Throw a smaller body or reshaped body on an old 3 platform and they have a proven drivetrain and suspension where all development costs are already recovered. It’d be all legacy costs… easy profit and logistics already figured out.

 

[peakbagger]

Well built and US compliant is two different things. My Fiesta had 7 air bags plus a lot of extra structure to survive a regulation that doesnt exist in China. The demand for strictly commuter cars is low in the US and even with a commuter car folks expect that they can go on long trip at 70 MPH. It makes a good headline IMO its a apples to oranges comparision. Tata makes some ultra low cost vehicles in India that also make good headlines but they have the same issue.

 

[EbS-P]

The 'base' model 3 IS the cheap EV for the US market. And its price will drop 10% per year for the next several years.

When Tesla makes a model 2, I expect it will be sold overseas first in markets that like smaller cars.

Buts it’s not a cheap EV. As built it’s closer to a luxury sedan than a Civic or Corolla.

Throw a smaller body or reshaped body on an old 3 platform and they have a proven drivetrain and suspension where all development costs are already recovered. It’d be all legacy costs… easy profit and logistics already figured out.

I was thinking along the same lines. Stamped roof single layer glass… would it sell???? I wonder what the manual labor costs are. Those are only going up.

 

[begreen]

Throw a smaller body or reshaped body on an old 3 platform and they have a proven drivetrain and suspension where all development costs are already recovered. It’d be all legacy costs… easy profit and logistics already figured out.

There is a segment of the population that is not going to embrace a car where driver functions are 99% on a big iPad. This may be good for cost cutting and prep for self-driving cars, but not for many drivers. Eventually I think the NHTSA and insurance companies may concur due to the inherent safety factor and costs. In 2022 there were 3,047 fatal motor vehicle traffic crashes that involved distraction. Regulation will come in Europe even sooner. Carmakers told to ditch distracting touchscreens

Distracted Driving | NHTSA

Learn about distracted driving and consequences and dangers of texting and driving. Also get info on distracted driving statistics.

www.nhtsa.gov

The difference in usability has even been quantified.

Buttons beat touchscreens in cars, and now there’s data to prove it

Swedish publication Vi Bilägare quantified the problem with new tests.

arstechnica.com

 

[EbS-P]

There is a segment of the population that is not going to embrace a car where driver functions are 99% on a big iPad. This may be good for cost cutting and prep for self-driving cars, but not for many drivers. Eventually I think the NHTSA and insurance companies may concur due to the inherent safety factor and costs. In 2022 there were 3,047 fatal motor vehicle traffic crashes that involved distraction. Regulation will come in Europe even sooner. Carmakers told to ditch distracting touchscreens

Distracted Driving | NHTSA

Learn about distracted driving and consequences and dangers of texting and driving. Also get info on distracted driving statistics.

www.nhtsa.gov

The difference in usability has even been quantified.

Buttons beat touchscreens in cars, and now there’s data to prove it

Swedish publication Vi Bilägare quantified the problem with new tests.

arstechnica.com

I completely agree buttons are safer in my experience. But I do t think we are getting rid of the touch screens. After having driven the most recent full self driving version around town it has the power to reduce distracted driving incidents. But while I didn’t have to be planing lane changes or monitoring speed I was people watching. So many drivers are using it their phones while driving. Buttons or touchscreens probably don’t have the near the impact of handheld devices. You don’t need turn stalks when the car puts on the signals for you. Voice commands need to be better communicated.

I sat down in a newish Sienna and ALL THE BUTTONS!! wow it was a mess and some were over next to the center display hard to reach. Thinking about safety. It could be very easy for the screens to be locked out while moving. That would force everything to be done via voice.

 

[stoveliker]

We have a touchscreen in the RAV4, for basically everything but lights and climate.
I don't like it. Even changing the radio takes more times to look at the thing than looking once to get to the knob (which, in all honesty if one owns the car for a year or more doesn't take any looking...).

Tactile memory allows at least he eyes to remain focused (the brain is another story...).

I do like voice control as long as there is confirmation with a required "yes" after that to avoid the car doing something that was not intended. And that's not only because computers here are still sometimes poor in understanding my accent.

 

[begreen]

I sat down in a newish Sienna and ALL THE BUTTONS!! wow it was a mess and some were over next to the center display hard to reach. Thinking about safety. It could be very easy for the screens to be locked out while moving. That would force everything to be done via voice.

Sounds like the first Volts. GM heard loud and clear that this was a lousy user interface and corrected it well in the second generation.

 

[stoveliker]

Ford trims EV battery orders as losses swell to over $100,000 per electric car in Q1

With losses piling up, Ford is cutting back on EV battery orders. According to sources, the move comes as Ford’s...

electrek.co

Interesting remark at the end: small EVs are more profitable than large ones.
That's different than was said earlier.

 

[woodgeek]

There is a segment of the population that is not going to embrace a car where driver functions are 99% on a big iPad. This may be good for cost cutting and prep for self-driving cars, but not for many drivers. Eventually I think the NHTSA and insurance companies may concur due to the inherent safety factor and costs. In 2022 there were 3,047 fatal motor vehicle traffic crashes that involved distraction. Regulation will come in Europe even sooner. Carmakers told to ditch distracting touchscreens

Distracted Driving | NHTSA

Learn about distracted driving and consequences and dangers of texting and driving. Also get info on distracted driving statistics.

www.nhtsa.gov

The difference in usability has even been quantified.

Buttons beat touchscreens in cars, and now there’s data to prove it

Swedish publication Vi Bilägare quantified the problem with new tests.

arstechnica.com

Apple Introduces Revolutionary New Laptop With No Keyboard

The MacBook Wheel lets consumers accomplish everyday tasks like typing with just a few dozen spins and clicks of a wheel.

www.theonion.com

Honestly, the tech industry is fixated on user interface, and all convinced that some new crazy interface is going to make them the next Edison or something. And if people don't like it, they're wrong, and the next generation will LOVE it. Intuitively!

And they get stuff wrong, famously the ipod 'wheel' interface.

The Nest thermostat company was founded by the same guy that came up with the iPod 'wheel' interface. He was revered as a god in the tech industry for that. And Nest put more engineering into the 'wheel' design of the stat than, um, making a thermostat that actually worked and didn't freeze people's houses.

I got one on first release, and the promos for it were all like the onion video above... unironically. I frequented the user fora for it which were full of users having bunches of problems with the device and UI (and user support). The company spent YEARS ignoring the problems (and blasting out OTA updates that bricked the stats on Saturday nights in January), and then deleted the whole forum a few months before IPO, where the company was sold to Google for a couple billion dollars.

By then, I had already moved to ecobee and made the NEST v0.1beta a paperweight.

 

[EbS-P]

And up other tariffs…. Now 100%

Biden announces new tariffs on Chinese EVs, semiconductors, solar cells and more

The Biden administration is dramatically increasing tariffs on items including Chinese EVs to solar cells, batteries, steel and more.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[EbS-P]

Apple Introduces Revolutionary New Laptop With No Keyboard

The MacBook Wheel lets consumers accomplish everyday tasks like typing with just a few dozen spins and clicks of a wheel.

www.theonion.com

Honestly, the tech industry is fixated on user interface, and all convinced that some new crazy interface is going to make them the next Edison or something. And if people don't like it, they're wrong, and the next generation will LOVE it. Intuitively!

And they get stuff wrong, famously the ipod 'wheel' interface.

The Nest thermostat company was founded by the same guy that came up with the iPod 'wheel' interface. He was revered as a god in the tech industry for that. And Nest put more engineering into the 'wheel' design of the stat than, um, making a thermostat that actually worked and didn't freeze people's houses.

I got one on first release, and the promos for it were all like the onion video above... unironically. I frequented the user fora for it which were full of users having bunches of problems with the device and UI (and user support). The company spent YEARS ignoring the problems (and blasting out OTA updates that bricked the stats on Saturday nights in January), and then deleted the whole forum a few months before IPO, where the company was sold to Google for a couple billion dollars.

By then, I had already moved to ecobee and made the NEST v0.1beta a paperweight.

I loved the touch wheel on my iPod!

 

[peakbagger]

Looks like a Tesla may be having further price reductions

Tesla's Storing Unsold Inventory In An Abandoned Mall Parking Lot

The electric automaker is renting parking lots to store thousands of vehicles

jalopnik.com

 

[EbS-P]

Looks like a Tesla may be having further price reductions

Tesla's Storing Unsold Inventory In An Abandoned Mall Parking Lot

The electric automaker is renting parking lots to store thousands of vehicles

jalopnik.com

They are now storing lots of vehicles to be delivered off site. I over heard a buyer last week that was trying to pick up his new car. They had one delivery appointment the next day then it was 2-3 more days until they had another delivery appointment. I guess they are trying to deliver clean cars now. Story goes they have been using that mall lot for quite some time. If it’s model Ys they are moving, if it’s all model 3s yeah those are sitting waiting for a buyer.

Q1 numbers were bad but mostly because the model 3 no longer qualifies for the tax credit. I anticipate that Q2 will be similar. The model Y RWD is a good value right now.

 

[sloeffle]

You can see the difference in their mindset in what they are selling and profit/EV.

American auto companies like capitalism until someone else is better than they are at doing it.

 

[ABMax24]

American auto companies like capitalism until someone else is better than they are at doing it.

If only China operated on free market principles.