Winter 2024

[Solarguy3500]

you do know it's worth a small fortune?

Yeah, in any kind of decent condition they are. This one is beyond rotted out. The holes in the floors are bigger than the parts of the floor that still have metal left. I do get a little woozy sometimes when plowing from the carbon monoxide coming from the exhaust right up through the floor and that's even with the missing driver's door and the back hatch open.

This might be a parts vehicle but even that is a question mark. Not much left of it to even use for parts. The 196 CID 4 cylinder runs good though.

 

[Solarguy3500]

Looks like we're supposed to start off with snow and then change to rain overnight. They are calling for 3"-5" of snow before it changes to rain and then 1"-2" of rain.

There is also a high wind warning here for tonight, as well as a flood watch.

 

[weee123]

It might be warming up for a few days here in Jersey, but next week looks like it’s going to get decently cold out for once.

 

[NHWS]

The NOAA prediction for this area seem to be changing two or three times per day. Currently is says snow or rain/snow mix every day through at least Friday, with a possibility of 6" of snow accumulation. (That's a lot for Western Washington.) Overnight temps down to the mid-teens.

Looking forward to it. Probably have to turn the stove up past 1/3 air.

 

[begreen]

Lots of wind and blizzard conditions in the mountains right now. We've lost power twice in the last 24 hrs., fortunately for not too long. The low is off the coast causing a strong pressure gradient. As it moves our temps are predicted to plummet. Right now, many models are disagreeing with the NWS (GFS) model used by NOAA. NOAA says rain/snow for Thurs. and the European models say clear. We'll see. Both expect snow by Friday. How much is hard to determine. NW weather is difficult to predict in this situation.

 

[Ashful]

Just warm and rain here, but absolutely massive amounts of it. 40 mph winds probably helped to uproot some trees in this soggy soil, but looking out my windows this morning, I'm not seeing anything down in my own yard.

School is canceled due to flooding.

 

[woodgeek]

Just warm and rain here, but absolutely massive amounts of it. 40 mph winds probably helped to uproot some trees in this soggy soil, but looking out my windows this morning, I'm not seeing anything down in my own yard.

School is canceled due to flooding.

The rich neighbors near me are all out of power this morning, and running their automatic gennys. My street seems to have retained power, in a reversal of the usual pattern.

Actually, the power co came through a few years ago and tagged trees for (free) removal, including one of mine. Most were White ashes in a poor state from the EAB.

Since then, no multi-day outages.

 

[Ashful]

All it takes is one branch!

One of my neighbors owns one of the largest land development companies in the area, so he's pretty tight with all of the various local utilities crews. We lose power, but it does seem our street is almost always fixed first, before everyone else. I have no more sway on that than any parasite dependent on the diet of their host, but I suspect they're taking care of the guy who brings them so much business.

 

[begreen]

OK, this is a classic clash of weather models. The NOAA model using the US GFS model ensemble shows us having an accumulation of 10" of snow by Sunday. The European models show the storms heading south and the big dump occurring in Portland not here. This translates to a dramatic difference in forecasts.
Here's NOAA's which also shows snow on Sunday.

Weather Underground has gone from saying it will be a little event, to saying it will be a non-event, just cold.

As noted earlier, winter weather forecasting in this area is tricky. We'll soon know which system got it right, the National Weather System or the more advanced European system.

PS: Lots of power outages in our area. Some folks will be 24-36 without power. We dodged the bullet this time. Our outage was just for a couple hours. There have been a few flickers since then, but the lights stayed on.

 

[Pinesmoke]

Glad you made it through pretty much unscathed. It's interesting I can remember as a kid the hand drawn maps in the newspapers seemed to be more accurate than the computer models the talking heads pass on now.

Wunderground is great. I'm hooked up to local weather stations up here on the mountain as opposed to the generic observations from further out. I also appreciate the fact they keep the radar reflectivity "normal". Weather Channel has it wound up so it looks like people are gonna die by the reds and purples on the map.

 

[begreen]

Wunderground is great. I'm hooked up to local weather stations up here on the mountain as opposed to the generic observations from further out. I also appreciate the fact they keep the radar reflectivity "normal". Weather Channel has it wound up so it looks like people are gonna die by the reds and purples on the map.

Yeah, no system is perfect, I always look at multiple models when foul weather is afoot. Weather Underground has the best track record for the last 5 yrs or so since they broadened their ensemble. I have a friend up north that swore by by NOAA until time after time they blew the forecast for his area in the winter of 22. The US needs to upgrade its weather system, but entrenched bureaucrats at the top have invested in an increasingly antiquated system. More details here:

See for yourself why meteorologists prefer the European Model over the U.S. Model

Here's one way to verify which model is more accurate

www.mlive.com

This shows the difference for WA state in the two models for accumulated snow predictions through Sunday. I hope the US GFS model is wrong.

 

[woodgeek]

We had similarly unstable predictions (0" or 12" of snow) last week. In that case, the main factor was the polar vortex, which I guess is kinda wobbly at the moment, and difficult to predict. A blob of polar vortex air or its absence can make a big difference in snowfall.

 

[NHWS]

The NOAA model using the US GFS model ensemble shows us having an accumulation of 10" of snow by Sunday. The European models show the storms heading south and the big dump occurring in Portland not here.

Similar here a bit north of you, but NOAA is predicting temps down to the mid-teens Friday and Saturday overnight. Agree that NOAA's predictions don't have a particularly good track record. Unfortunately all of the European Model sites I've found so far either try to violate my cybersecurity perimeter or don't provide a quick summary for non-meteorologists.

PS: Lots of power outages in our area. Some folks will be 24-36 without power. We dodged the bullet this time. Our outage was just for a couple hours. There have been a few flickers since then, but the lights stayed on.

Power has been flickering here, but so far no outages for more than a few seconds.

 

[begreen]

Here's the most honest forecast out of NWS

 

[Pinesmoke]

Here's the most honest forecast out of NWS

View attachment 322478

You guys don't do milk sammichs out there? For snow here everyone buys out milk and bread.

 

[begreen]

You guys don't do milk sammichs out there? For snow here everyone buys out milk and bread.

Yes, and toilet paper.

 

[Ashful]

I have a friend up north that swore by by NOAA until time after time they blew the forecast for his area in the winter of 22. The US needs to upgrade its weather system, but entrenched bureaucrats at the top have invested in an increasingly antiquated system.

I listened to the NOAA weather radio forecast every single day, perhaps 1985 until I got an iPhone ca.2007, so a little over 30 years. During that time, the various people I was living with got their weather from local news, the Weather channel, etc., and many debates would ensue when predictions conflicted.

I can say without any hesitation that way back then, NOAA had the best and most consistent batting average of any weather service I was monitoring, or at least most of that 30 year window. But tech changes, and perhaps others have upgraded to better systems more quickly than NOAA. We're always basing our opinions of one service or another based on past performance, driving by the rear view mirror.

It will be real interesting to see how quickly predictions improve with the implementation of AI-based prediction software. It could be as big a game changer as when we went from looking out the window to implementing weather radar, or first added satellite data to local radar.

 

[GrumpyDad]

Here's the most honest forecast out of NWS

View attachment 322478

this is hilarious. And true. The Euro models for my area always show like 12-24" of snow, when everything else shows 3 - 6. Sadly, we will get 3, then it will rain.
And sometimes, nothing will happen and it will be sunny.
Gone are the days that they say, we will get 6 and instead we get 18".
The last time that happened was when I was in my first house, around 2007? We were supposed to get 6-8, then it was more likely to be 8 maybe 8-12. Yay, no school/work tomorrow probably. Or a delay and some fun/break from the norm, feels like a holiday.
At night, as we watching about 6" land we wondered how we were only going to get 12" when they expected it to snow like that all night.
By morning we had 27" of snow!

 

[GrumpyDad]

I listened to the NOAA weather radio forecast every single day, perhaps 1985 until I got an iPhone ca.2007, so a little over 30 years. During that time, the various people I was living with got their weather from local news, the Weather channel, etc., and many debates would ensue when predictions conflicted.

I can say without any hesitation that way back then, NOAA had the best and most consistent batting average of any weather service I was monitoring, or at least most of that 30 year window. But tech changes, and perhaps others have upgraded to better systems more quickly than NOAA. We're always basing our opinions of one service or another based on past performance, driving by the rear view mirror.

It will be real interesting to see how quickly predictions improve with the implementation of AI-based prediction software. It could be as big a game changer as when we went from looking out the window to implementing weather radar, or first added satellite data to local radar.

AI depends on the data it is fed. If those researching and training AI dont agree with AI responses, then they will all agree that the AI needs better data (that aligns with their beliefs).
The goal here would be to allow training to happen in a manner that can take even the boldest wildest craziest claims, dig into them, and determine with as much data it can find if that is true or not but NEVER discard those ideas as either in perpetuity. For example, there is no global warming, or there is global warming, or birds arent real they are drones, or weather has been manufactured and controlled by the government since the 60's. While not completely apropos to a daily weather forecast, there are components that fall into how models are built and analyzed. While I can't provide examples for weather models, as I dont know weather models and how they come up with them, surely you see the point here. Im very hopeful that AI becomes smart enough and is allowed to reach outside the tiny confines of the human brain which can suffer from so many things like echo chambering, clawing for research dollars and coming to conclusions that a big industry or government entity would sway a research towards etc.
For example what if AI said that global warming or climate change was not real, that we were actually on the cusp of another ice age. No one would buy that, and they would dig to remove that 'mistake' from consideration and have AI retrained to come to a different conclusion.

 

[begreen]

According to the head UW meteorologist, the problem is not NOAA, it's NWS.

It's looking like the European models have called it correctly as Weather Underground predicted a week ago. Serious cold is going to settle in here for a few days. My friends up north will be seeing 0º night temps with -12º wind chill. And we're on the warm side of the mountains. Eastern WA will be seeing -15º before the strong winds there amplify the wind chill. The is a major polar system that will be dropping down into the heartland. -20ºF is the predicted high temp for Great Falls, MT. It will be heading east in a few days. I suspect things are going to get busy here at Hearth.com as folks fire up the wood stoves and furnaces to fight the cold.

 

[NHWS]

FWIW, the NOAA prediction for my area has changed considerably since yesterday. It had been claiming up to 8 or 9 inches of snow falling from today through Saturday. It now predicts up to 1" today, a slight chance of snow on Saturday, and partly/mostly clear other days through Monday. Overnight temps have not changed much; the prediction is still 15 dF +/-.

 

[Ashful]

I continue to be fooled by the iPhone Weather app forecast. Today the call was for zero-percent chance of rain, 56F and windy. Instead, it rained twice before noon, and our temperature peaked somewhere around 43F, with 20 - 40 mph winds all day.

One of today's projects was to take down all of the Christmas lights, as the upcoming weather (if we believe that forecast) is mighty cold, and said lights may be frozen to the bushes if they didn't come down today. The place always feels a little more dark and depressing on that first evening after they've come down.

 

[begreen]

The iPhone weather app is a standing joke here.
We bottomed out at 17º, but it only went up to 20º yesterday. I imagine Highbeam was in the single digits. Lot of pipe freezes happening in the area. I know this may not seem cold to a lot of folks in the midwest, but for us it was bordering on record territory, especially to be sustained for several days. Weather Underground called it right and we were prepared. Still, we're going to lose some nice plants from this cold spell.

And then there is Montana.

 

[NHWS]

It was 10 dF here Friday early morning, and didn't go above 16 dF yesterday daytime. Currently 19 dF.

NOAA got the temps close to right, but we didn't get the snow that they predicted. Today is mostly clear and sunny.

Running the stove at 100% air for the first time, with 8 hour reloads.

 

[begreen]

NOAA got the temps close to right, but we didn't get the snow that they predicted. Today is mostly clear and sunny.

Yes, once they were in the 3 day range. The European model called it over a week ago. NWS needs to upgrade their systems. No snow here either and warming up to a balmy 26º.

I'm glad I'm not a plumber. There's going to be a whole lot of leaks showing up once the temps get above freezing.