I guess I'll need to carve out some time to look at this more closely, as I really don't know the published numbers. But I'd be surprised if you're right here, stoveliker. My minisplit outdoor units throw off enough heat to kill 100 sq.ft. of lawn every winter, heat being thrown outside that can never be matched by a resistive baseboard. This happens due to the requirement to run constant defrost cycles.
I also started seeing $100 - $200 spikes in my electric bill for every several-weeks period of very cold weather, after we installed the most recent mini splits. They're heating only 1200 sq.ft. to just 50F, my shop space that sits almost entirely unused during the week.
I have another one in a very tight 260 sq.ft. room above my attached garage, and that one doesn't pull nearly as much power. But that room is also getting free heat off the garage below, kept around 55F with propane heat and a small fleet of 6 liter HEMIs nearly all driven daily.
This may get a little off topic here, but I don't understand the lawn remark: if you're pushing out heat onto your lawn, you're cooling inside. I think something is wrong if your defrosting offsets the cooling of outside air when you're heating inside.
I have a lawn in front of the unit and it is just fine - though in summer it gets a little drier due to the constant warm air flow.
I have heated with my (Mitsubishi) minisplit down to 32 F. It puts out 36000 BTU at 47 F and 22200 BTU at 17 F, at an indoor T of 70 F, and has a COP of 2.67 at 17 F outside, i.e. 2.67 times as efficient as resistive heat (and a COP of 3.5 at 47 F). I heat more than 1200 sqft with that (with three heads inside). I do see about 8-10 kWh used per day to heat when I use it (from the change in my banked solar kWhs that I use in the winter). Of course depending on the weather, sun exposure, outside temps, wind, and what have you, so this is a very rough estimate.
And this is NOT a cold-temp specialized unit.
I thought that maybe your climate may be more humid (so the coil freezes up sooner, leading to defrosting), but given that I'm at the coast, I think that's not the case...
Is your defrosting working properly? (or on continuously?) See if you can figure that out.
(Your) Data are data - no discussion there. But could the cost be related to the fact that you heat more now than you did before in your shop? Do you actually have comparison data for resistive heating cost in the same space (and at the same Tstat setting)?
Anyway, there is a guy here that is a true expert on minisplits; I think it's brian26 - he's in CT.