Taxing and tariffs

[Seasoned Oak]

It's how I came across the article, not the source of the article. Did you read it?And would you hold it against my information if I cited a New York Times article (or Fox News, if that's your thing) that I happened across on Facebook?

As i said before the tariffs are not the end game but just a tool. A tool to get a better trade deal. Of course there are individual people and businesses that lose temporarily. If it were easy ,it would have been fixed long ago. You and this artice are not treating the tariffs as a negotiating tool ,but as if they are a permanent fixture. I Dont base my opinion on any news source other than what has been happening, us getting pounded on trade for the last 30 years and the hollowing out of out Mfg base, while the politicians ignore it cuz the fix is painful temporarily. They rather let us get fleeced quietly and say nothing.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

I said exactly what I would do; continue liberalizing trade, because it has been beneficial.
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Not a solution, try again. Will do nothing to eliminate hundreds of billions in trade deficit with china. Same policy that has not worked for 30 Years.

 

[venator260]

As i said before the tariffs are not the end game but just a tool. A tool to get a better trade deal. Of course there are individual people and businesses that lose temporarily. If it were easy ,it would have been fixed long ago. You and this artice are not treating the tariffs as a negotiating tool ,but as if they are a permanent fixture. I Dont base my opinion on any news source other than watching us get pounded on trade for the last 30 years while the politicians ignore it cuz the fix is painful temporarily. They rather let us get fleeced quietly and say nothing.

And if China decides to leave the talks as they've threatened to do? Or they attend the talks, and don't budge?

 

[Seasoned Oak]

And if China decides to leave the talks as they've threatened to do? Or they attend the talks, and don't budge?

We can t back down when it comes to china.They have been robbing and stealing from us for too long. They have 5 or 600% more to lose then we do with a trade war, but what we do buy from china we can get elsewhere ,they are not the only game in town. Better to buy from countries that treat us as equals and are not charging us 25% on everything we sell them. For National Security purposes alone we should be limiting what we get from china.

 

[venator260]

Not a solution, try again.

We can t back down when it comes to china.They have been robbing and stealing from us for too long. They have 5 or 600% more to lose then we do with a trade war, but what we do buy from china we can get elsewhere ,they are not the only game in town. Better to buy from countries that treat us as equals and are not charging us 25% on everything we sell them. For National Security purposes alone we should be limiting what we get from china.

But looking at economic data, I'm having a hard time finding where they're robbing and stealing from us.

They make items cheaper than we can. We purchase those items at a cheaper price, allowing greater buying power. The items purchased from China are purchased from Chinese manufacturers because they are cheaper. If we take our business elsewhere, we will lose buying power, because we will pay more for those items. Meanwhile, manufacturing jobs will not be coming back, because they weren't "lost" to China, but rather to productivity gains in U.S. manufacturing.

National security makes just a small amount of sense if we were talking about advanced weapons systems for the U.S. military. I'm failing to see how it's a threat to national security to buy coffee mugs and car parts from China. I would think, however, that a trade war is a greater threat to national security than cheap goods from China.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

Your forgetting the 25% they tack on everything they buy from us. Apparently you also dont think the ,millions of jobs lost buying goods from china that we can make ourselves has no effect on our economy. I live in a town full of empty factories that used to make those goods until the Govt sold us out to cheap imports. I would certainly rather pay a few dollars more for american made goods than have whole industries relocated to other countries. Same as i would pay a quarter more for a head of lettuce if it didnt depend on a steady stream of illegals to harvest it ,but thats a whole nother story where we are being sold out.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

The items purchased from China are purchased from Chinese manufacturers because they are cheaper. If we take our business elsewhere, we will lose buying power, because we will pay more for .

I would buy that argument if china were not subsidizing their exports with Govt money and actively trying to decimate start ups in us companies,to achieve global domination in targeted markets. Like the recently did to the solar panel industry. Dumping solar panels for less than the cost of production. They have been doing this with steel too an and many other products. Your failing to see the big picture.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

Your arguing that its better for US citzens to have access to cheap foreign goods than for this country to maintain Key Mgf industries that benefit the whole country .That pay taxes into american treasury rather the treasurys of foreign countries. Very short term ,short sighted thinking IMO.

 

[venator260]

Your forgetting the 25% they tack on everything they buy from us. Apparently you also dont think the ,millions of jobs lost buying goods from china that we can make ourselves has no effect on our economy. I live in a town full of empty factories that used to make those goods until the Govt sold us out to cheap imports. I would certainly rather pay a few dollars more for american made goods than have whole industries relocated to other countries. Same as i would pay a quarter more for a head of lettuce if it didnt depend on a steady stream of illegals to harvest it ,but thats a whole nother story where we are being sold out.

1. Manufacturing, specifically, did not lose jobs to China, but to efficiency. I read an article earlier that mentioned steel. In 1980, it took 10 man hours to produce a ton of steel. It now takes two. We need only 1/5 of the labor force to make the same amount of steel that we did in 1980.

https://fee.org/articles/what-donald-trump-doesnt-understand-about-trade/

2. Those jobs aren't "lost", they're reallocated to more productive areas of the economy. Manufacturing the old school way is not economically viable, those jobs went somewhere else. It may not be in the same town, state, or even region of the country, hence the empty factories. If those jobs were lost, how could the United States be experiencing sub 4% unemployment?

I would buy that argument if china were not subsidizing their exports with Govt money and actively trying to decimate start ups in us companies,to achieve global domination in targeted markets. Like the recently did to the solar panel industry. Dumping solar panels for less than the cost of production. They have been doing this with steel too an and many other products. Your failing to see the big picture.

I'm not failing to see any big picture. All this means is that China is subsidizing the cost of everything made of steel in the United States. I fail to see how it is a bad thing. The big picture here is that jobs in the economy move around; because less people work in manufacturing, you argue that less people are working generally, failing to see that those workers simply changed fields. Again, sub 4% unemployment.

Your arguing that its better for US citzens to have access to cheap foreign goods than for this country to maintain Key Mgf industries that benefit the whole country .That pay taxes into american treasury rather the treasurys of foreign countries. Very short term ,short sighted thinking IMO.

Once again, people are still working, making money, and paying taxes. For this argument to be true, U.S. tax receipts would have had to drop, but they've risen almost every year since 1940. And that is exactly what I'm arguing. Significantly higher buying power for every single citizen of the United States is worth the loss of a manufacturing job that is gained in another sector of the economy, and may require retraining or inconveniencing several thousand workers.

https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/federal-receipt-and-outlay-summary

I'm just going to go ahead and cite some other data that I have been referencing, but not interpreted explicitly.

Throughout this supposed disastrous period, GDP has risen at a more or less steady rate (except the housing crisis of 2008).

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp

Real household incomes have been choppy. But if what you say were true (that we were bleeding jobs due to free trade) they should be falling. The United States is currently experiencing the highest real income in decades.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp

In the last few years of liberalizing trade policy, unemployment has been dropping at a more or less steady rate.

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

I tried to pick the biggest picture data that I could find. I'm curious to hear your interpretation of this.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

The unemployment rate while getting better is a misleading number as is the inflation rate and many other metrics the Govt puts out. I dont think anyone really believes its only 4%. Some demographics are 50%. Less than 1/3 of the population is even counted. We are swimming in debt, running an unsustainable ponzi scheme that will collapse at some point under its own weight.
It too bad that so many people (not just yourself)dont see the draining of hundred of billions of dollar out of the economy every year by bad trade deals as a problem that not important enough to endure some short term pain to fix. When the debt bomb come home to roost ,america wont be able to afford even cheap junk from china to prop it up. Im curious of your opinion of the 20 Trillion of debt heading for 30 trillion. Is that also nothing to be concerned about.? Plus no one has attempted to answer why all our major trading partners are fighting so hard to maintain their high tariffs. Of course they know its in their own countries best interest because they profit greatly from running surplus trade with the US.Or any other country

 

[venator260]

The unemployment rate while getting better is a misleading number as is the inflation rate and many other metrics the Govt puts out. I dont think anyone really believes its only 4%. Some demographics are 50%. Less than 1/3 of the population is even counted. We are swimming in debt, running an unsustainable ponzi scheme that will collapse at some point under its own weight.
It too bad that so many people (not just yourself)dont see the draining of hundred of billions of dollar out of the economy every year by bad trade deals as a problem that not important enough to endure some short term pain to fix. When the debt bomb come home to roost ,america wont be able to afford even cheap junk from china to prop it up. Im curious of your opinion of the 20 Trillion of debt heading for 30 trillion. Is that also nothing to be concerned about.? Plus no one has attempted to answer why all our major trading partners are fighting so hard to maintain their high tariffs. Of course they know its in their own countries best interest because they profit greatly from running surplus trade with the US.Or any other country

You're mixing several different issues here that aren't connected in the way that you claim.

The labor force participation rate, which is what you're talking about as the real unemployment rate, has been steady for 4 years. So the improvement of the unemployment rate, in that context, is an improvement.

The trade deficit and the budget deficit are not directly connected, that is, a higher trade deficit does not automatically make the debt worse. If it did, the tax revenues that I cited in one of my past posts would have dropped. They have not, they have risen instead. The debt is a problem; allowing the economy to run unencumbered by tariffs will increase tax revenues. This should help the debt of the U.S. government, but spending would have to be reigned in.

As for "money drained from the economy". That's the zero sum thinking that I was talking about earlier. Money is taken, goods are received, a mutually beneficial change occurs. If money spent was a drain of resources, we should all be very concerned about the trade deficit that we run with our grocery store, and our employer should be rather concerned about their trade deficit with us. But that's not how it works.

Countries hold on to their tariffs because they're not economists. Protectionism sounds great; it's a good way to get votes. The U.S. elected a president largely because of this platform (and the related concern about immigrants taking jobs). But it's not something supported by anyone who actually studies the economy. As I said before, but I'll mention again, it's nearly unanimous, in a field where little else is, that protectionism is a bad idea, and makes countries worse off. To move this to another field, protectionists are like climate change deniers in terms of the percentage of experts in the field that agree with them.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/artcarden/2018/05/04/1100-economists-no-trump-tariffs/#99b09ad40fba

I'm not sure what else I can say. There's simply no credible source that I can think of that would support protectionist measures, even temporarily as some sort of 4D chess match type strategy to make deals. At best, it damages relationships with allies, and at worst, we're left with wrongheaded measures that hurt economic growth as a legacy of a deal gone bad.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

Still no answer to why all our trading partners use high tariffs to benefit their countries economies and all but refuse to give them up. China, Canada, Mexico and Europe are not stupid. Nor are they all 3rd world countries that dont know better. 70000 factories lost in the last few decades and all of those factories were NOT lost to efficiency improvements. Plus every factorys output off shored is that much revenue the Govt no longer collects directly affecting the Debt and deficit. The US treasury collects ZERO taxes from chinese factories . Free trade is only beneficial to both sides, when both sides practice free trade. How many different ways does that need to be stated? Its not political. Steel and aluminum industries are roaring back with new investments ,is that not enough evidence that the steel play was the right move? Probably not for some.
There may be better ways to force other countries to practice fair trade with no tariffs but probably not faster than tariffs as evidenced by mexico.

 

[venator260]

Still no answer to why all our trading partners use high tariffs to benefit their countries economies and all but refuse to give them up. China, Canada, Mexico and Europe are not stupid. Nor are they all 3rd world countries that dont know better.

Those countries also run high levels of government debt. Is that good policy? Popularity does not dictate what is a good idea, only what gets votes.

70000 factories lost in the last few decades and all of those factories were NOT lost to efficiency improvements. Plus every factorys output off shored is that much revenue the Govt no longer collects directly affecting the Debt and deficit. The US treasury collects ZERO taxes from chinese factories . Free trade is only beneficial to both sides, when both sides practice free trade. How many different ways does that need to be stated? Its not political. Steel and aluminum industries are roaring back with new investments ,is that not enough evidence that the steel play was the right move? Probably not for some.
There may be better ways to force other countries to practice fair trade with no tariffs but probably not faster than tariffs as evidenced by mexico.

I've cited all sorts of evidence to prove why this is wrong. Steel and aluminum factories are experiencing a bump in employment at the expense of every other industry in the United States due to more expensive inputs. Should we save one steel mill at the expense of five factories that make finished goods from metal? That's exactly what's happening. The benefits to the steel industry are not worth the cost.

Again, I'll fall back on this, and then I don't know what else I can say. Almost every economist agrees that the current course is bad policy. I don't trust Jenny McCarthy to give me good advice about vaccines; and politicians (or reality TV starts turned politicians) are not good sources of sound economic policy.

 

[Doug MacIVER]

always go back to my industry, shoes. history here, has always been one to find low cost labor for a labor intensive product. New England factories either closed and moved south, or remained open to expand new factories in low labor cost areas. cheap footwear, synthetics and sneakers the first go offshore. then comes So.Korea and Taiwan. China grabs the next spot and is now losing it to areas south of them. other labor intensive industries all did the same. the most automated factories in apparel, furniture, ect could no longer compete with imported products of equal quality. those jobs will never be revived.

answer, hold what we can in those highly profitable products we still control. more automation to help keep that control and hope displaced workers can make enough $$$ ringing a cash register ! oh, I meant fixing the kiosk ?

0% tariff is a lofty goal and obviously can't happen unilaterally. interesting to watch the chess game though.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/mone...still-work-long-days-for-low-wages/ar-BBMYdnY

 

[Seasoned Oak]

We will have to agree to disagree on this one. Most if not all of the experts agree free trade is beneficial,but we are not getting free trade. They just disagree on how to correct it.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

. China grabs the next spot and is now losing it to areas south of them. other labor intensive industries all did the same. the most automated factories in apparel, furniture, ect could no longer compete with imported products of equal quality. those jobs will never be revived.

I completely understand that some labor intensive jobs are not coming back. And are better farmed out to low wage countries. But allowing other countries to impose artificial taxes on our products in the form of tariffs while at the same time we allow their products in without tariffs or with very low tariffs is an entirely different thing. At times for the sole purpose of shutting down factories and destroying the competiton(which is US) . Thats what needs fixing. And while there may be better ways to fix it rather than imposing our own tariffs on their imports ,there probably is not a faster way.

 

[Doug MacIVER]

I completely understand that some labor intensive jobs are not coming back. And are better farmed out to low wage countries. But allowing other countries to impose artificial taxes on our products in the form of tariffs while at the same time we allow their products in without tariffs or with very low tariffs is an entirely different thing. At times for the sole purpose of shutting down factories and destroying the competiton(which is US) . Thats what needs fixing. And while there may be better ways to fix it rather than imposing our own tariffs on their imports ,there probably is not a faster way.

factory and industrial predation China's # 1 priority. can knock off anything in a heartbeat and do so. Better way? honestly, I'm stuck! maybe the money changers have an answer, not much sense in having huge economy and huge currency advantage as well. that area above my pay level. maybe someone can help me?

 

[Seasoned Oak]

factory and industrial predation China's # 1 priority. can knock off anything in a heartbeat and do so. Better way? honestly, I'm stuck! maybe the money changers have an answer, not much sense in having huge economy and huge currency advantage as well. that area above my pay level. maybe someone can help me?

We can stop letting them dump on us. Which it appears is what s happening now.

 

[begreen]

Perhaps the goal probably is less to do with dumping or making a deal with China and more about forcing US international corporations to bring manufacturing back domestically.

 

[sportbikerider78]

Im still not hearing solutions ,only complaints about how its being handled. Bad trade deals have been draining the wealth of this country for 30 years and no one has done much of anything(until now) to fix it. Coincidentally we have been borrowing trillions to cover the budget over the same time period. All those millions of lost Mfg jobs not paying taxes into our Govt but instead those jobs boosting other countries GDP. Had they(jobs) remained here for the same time period would have painted a very different picture.

What you are hearing is discussion to the tariff points you brought up. I didn't hear you ask for solutions...my mistake if I missed it.
The solutions are the same they have always been. Stay competitive. Become more efficient. The result is making high quality products for minimal cost that are globally competitive. If you are looking for a way to save every industry through the evolution of consumer demand, technology improvements and economic changes, you're mistaken. There are always victims in every market. There need to be. It is natural.

There are a million reasons companies go overseas.
1) Read up on what the IMF and Import/Export Bank do. They use taxpayer money to back loans to US companies that want to move overseas. It is just wrong. The taxpayer accepts the risk.
2) A move is RARELY about labor costs and everything to do with avoiding regulations. Many goods that have the manufacturing lines fully automated, still get moved.
3) Many states are becoming toxic to business. They either move to more business friendly (usually union free) states or overseas.

I will say that getting out of NAFTA was a good move. That wasn't helping us.

 

[sportbikerider78]

Small potatoes compared to what china sells us. At a greatly lower tariff rate. When they get done stealing all our IPR they wont be buying much of anything from us. China is NOT our friend ,their 50 year plan is working flawlessly ,while our plan, cant seem to think beyond the current Adm.

Every company that moves manufacturing over there, knows its IP is in jeopardy. That is the gamble they are playing. They accept that risk. It is theirs to lose. Companies are powerless when the Chinese government enters and says "we want this or we close your plant". Nothing they can do.

I agree. They are not our friend. However, many Americans benefit from getting goods cheaper from them. The computer you are using right now has Chinese goods in it or even entirely Chinese made.

This is a decision people need to be free to make themselves, not through excessive tariffs that only steal from people to make the government richer.

 

[sportbikerider78]

Perhaps the goal probably is less to do with dumping and making a deal with China and more about forcing US international corporations to bring manufacturing back domestically.

Americans are already free to buy a product made in America.

They will just move all operations to another country that isn't trying to strong arm them. US companies don't have to stay US companies.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

I agree using taxpayer funds to help companies move overseas is just nuts. Economic suicide to some extent. There is some good news
Mexico and the EU are moving toward Zero tariffs. The new US deal with mexico will boost wages for both countries. The auto workers in both countries love it. Good for our domestic auto industry ,at least whats left of it. So id give it at least 6 months or more to see if canada and the EU comes around ,i think they will.

 

[sportbikerider78]

Still no answer to why all our trading partners use high tariffs to benefit their countries economies and all but refuse to give them up.

Simple. Governments are bad at economics, run by politicians for political ends and they do it to pander to union and special interest votes.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

I agree. They are not our friend. However, many Americans benefit from getting goods cheaper from them. The computer you are using right now has Chinese goods in it or even entirely Chinese made.

We dont benefit from toxic drywall ,contaminated food supplies including poisinous pet food as well. Seafood with high levels of pollutants. But his is one area where our own Govt can step in with more testing and send this junk back. Iv read only 10% or less ever gets tested and if it fails ,the ship simply finds another port until its not tested. Foreign countries test our exports extensively ,somtimes with the objective to simply add cost to it .