Solar and power wall 3 quote.

[bogieb]

Are you sure you can use TOU if you net meter? You might be able to, you just want to make darn sure - I know you didn't account for it in your numbers, but keeping it in the back of your mind may cause disappointment in the future if TOU isn't available for you.

My utility doesn't allow it (and it takes a different meter I think).

 

[peakbagger]

There are two broad types of smart meters. Some utilities went cheap and the "smart" meter is not that smart. The meter has a small radio transmitter and several metering channels internally, the meter broadcasts those values and an Id number specific to each home with a very low power transmitter. The utility then drives around the neighborhood with a receiver that picks up the signal and records the monthly readings. The channels of data are programable and if they want to do TOU it can be programmed in. The utility saves a lot of money not paying a union employee to drive around reading data from each house, the consumer really does not get much benefit.

More sophisticated smart meters, broadcast real time household electric usage data. The utility effectively can look at every customer.s power usage. They also can see if a customer's power is off. Using sophisticated software with customer data and other data on the transmission and distribution system, the utility can predict where the line could be down to a fairly small area. Depending on how modern the local grid is, they can remotely switch circuits on and off to restore power to many folks in a very short period of time.

The "smarter" meters that are sending out real time usage nearly continuously using a couple of methods usually wireless. There are receivers on the power poles in the neighborhood that receive that data from all the nearby homes and then retransmits it to the utility. This is quite expensive to implement especially in rural areas.

With real time data, TOU and lots of other rate plans, like tiered rates are pretty simple to implement basically via a computer at the utility. Real time pricing can also be done but unless a ratepayer pays attention they can get nailed with enormous power bills like folks in Texas have seen when power prices skyrocket.

With respect to home batteries that can be controlled by the utility, the communication now goes two way, the utility can remotely view the batteries capacity and possibly voltage and frequency of the grid at each enrolled home and decide if the utility wants to deploy the battery to prop up the grid while the troubleshoot the cause. If there is big disturbance on a grid like a major power plant or transmission line trips, its very expensive to replace that power quickly, a "peaker plant" designed for fast start ups may take 15 minutes to get on line at partial power. During that time, if the utility can tell the home batteries to take over the house load and even send power back ot the grid during those 15 minutes, there are potentially huge savings. In more than few cases, the contract signed with the supplier is that once a peaker is told to start they are guaranteed a premium price for far longer period than they are actually needed. In most cases they dont run the plant any longer they just get a check.

Collection of real time data is controversial, if someone has access to real time data and lots of other publicly available data, software can make very good guesses on what is going on in a private house every minute of the day and those guesses can be sold. Occupancy of the house is pretty easy, just think what someone, legal or illegal might be willing to pay to know the schedule of when a house is occupied or non-occupied.

 

[EbS-P]

Signed install contract and paid down payment. Tree removal will be reasonable as my tree guy that work alone (and only really half days) will work work with me. I’ll help with ropes if/when he needs it. I’ll clean up limbs and buck for firewood. He’ll come by for 2-3 climbing sessions leaving me to clean up after each one. Savings will be huge vs a tree company that bring a a while crew in. Might even get some nice slabs out of the trunk. At $100 a piece they would probably pay for the tree work.

To be honest I didn’t do enough research. Didn’t run enough numbers or shop a round or spend enough time understanding the riders, credits and billing. But I think I spent more time than the average solar customer. It’s expensive but has a reasonable breakeven time frame. The whole house backup is what makes this project valuable to us. I never could have justified the cost without it and the fact that it’s tax credit eligible is a bonus.

Based on current electric rates with no increase and expects solar production, the breakeven point is 11 years including tree work but excluding any energy wise bill credits. Best case it’s a bit over 8 years.

 

[peakbagger]

I know there is always the argument that the money could be kept in the bank and invested versus solar and probably a valid one for someone planning to move, as solar typically does not add a lot of value to house. On the other hand if someone is in their "final" home and plans to stay there, there is lot to be said for locking in the power bill for the long term.

I look forward to hearing on how well the power backup works.

 

[EbS-P]

I know there is always the argument that the money could be kept in the bank and invested versus solar and probably a valid one for someone planning to move, as solar typically does not add a lot of value to house. On the other hand if someone is in their "final" home and plans to stay there, there is lot to be said for locking in the power bill for the long term.

I look forward to hearing on how well the power backup works.

After hurricane Florence in 2018 many whole house generators were installed. Home prices have gone up 2.5x in 14 years since we purchased in 2010. For the price point we are in now backup power is an amenity that some other comparable homes will have. Who know what will happen to power rates

Duke’s rate structure not that favorable for residential solar but with the grants it’s doable. If we could use the meter mounted backup switch that some utilities and jurisdictions have approved it would have saved a $3k panel upgrade. If we didn’t have a neurotic squirrel infestation it would have been cheaper. Roof may need reenforced.

Rate were increased 4% this year and about to go up another 14% over the next 18 months. Figure that in Breakeven time drop another 1.5 years

 

[stoveliker]

Congrats. I can't say whether or not the structure is good, but I very much like to have my solar and no bill other than the connection fee. It's a good thing. I've passed break even point already (installed October 2018, so it's all downhill from here).

Keep track of your usage; it's known that on average households increase kWh usage after solar panels are installed...

 

[EbS-P]

Congrats. I can't say whether or not the structure is good, but I very much like to have my solar and no bill other than the connection fee. It's a good thing. I've passed break even point already (installed October 2018, so it's all downhill from here).

Keep track of your usage; it's known that on average households increase kWh usage after solar panels are installed...

Thanks. I think our usage increases as the family get older. Probably to a point. I’m excited to see how it all works. Have a free charging Tesla adds the dilemma do I charge on solar at home or free at the SC. Being able to manage it all through a familiar Tesla interface will be nice. Still a long way to go. Installers are about 10-12 weeks out once they get design’s finished.

 

[woodgeek]

Congrats. In my case, I live at the bottom of the north side of a tree covered hill. And my all electric house and EV use 15 MWh per year. So even if I cut a bunch of trees and got solar, I would still have basically the same bill. If I was made of money (I'm not, ask the ex why) I'd get solar.

I still think I can do some insulation work to bag another 2 MW/h per year in savings, first.

 

[EbS-P]

Congrats. In my case, I live at the bottom of the north side of a tree covered hill. And my all electric house and EV use 15 MWh per year. So even if I cut a bunch of trees and got solar, I would still have basically the same bill. If I was made of money (I'm not, ask the ex why) I'd get solar.

I still think I can do some insulation work to bag another 2 MW/h per year in savings, first.

We’re at like 14Mw. Add another 3 or 4 if charging at home.

There are many homes where solar just won’t ever make sense. Are subsidizing the one ones than it does make sense for or are they getting the benefits of a less centralized grid for free?

 

[stoveliker]

Dang, big users.
I am in a N/S running narrow valley with huuge oaks on the ridges blocking early morning and late afternoon exposure.
2 adults, 2 teenagers. 1700+825 basement conditioned space. Not as hot as NC, but presumably similar to NJ.

I make 6.2 MWh per year and use 5.3 MWh per year. No electric car charging tho. (Hot water is the only thing using nonelectric fuel; wood heat of course, but only below 40-45 F, as it's minisplit otherwise.)

I have a 7.2 kW system on the roof. (20 panels split evenly between E and W facing sides of the ridge).

My point is this: does 1 (10 kWh?) battery store enough for you, EbS-P?

 

[peakbagger]

There is hope in some states for those whose homes are not good for solar.Many states have enacted community solar rules. The devil is in the details but the general concept is instead of installing a lot of small household systems, one or two community systems are installed, and everyone signed up as part owners get a net metered access to the power being generated. In many cases some percentage of the "owners" need to meet income limits. In theory one big solar farm ideally located will cost less and be more efficient that individual home systems. In most cases the systems are optimized for summer generation and can have major snow shading issues in the winter due to snow sliding off and building a mound over the lower edge of the array, but the extra 3 season generation makes up for it. The federal 30% tax credit applies, and many states and utilities kick in more bucks.

The tradeoff is the systems may have batteries, but they are unable to back feed the owners' homes as they rely on the grid to move power around so if the grid is down the system is down once the batteries are maxed out. The utility doesn't like interconnecting these large farms as it requires more engineering on their end along with possible upgrades but once they are on line its a lot easier to communicate with one solar farm and do grid voltage and frequency support. I think you are going to see this approach expand. Alternatively if its all in one development on the same circuit, the development can be equipped with equipment to turn it into a microgrid that stays up while the grid is down.

BTW homes can be equipped with batteries without solar but the reality is a $600 generator is lot less upfront cost for a pretty rare occurrence.

 

[bogieb]

Signed install contract and paid down payment. Tree removal will be reasonable as my tree guy that work alone (and only really half days) will work work with me. I’ll help with ropes if/when he needs it. I’ll clean up limbs and buck for firewood. He’ll come by for 2-3 climbing sessions leaving me to clean up after each one. Savings will be huge vs a tree company that bring a a while crew in. Might even get some nice slabs out of the trunk. At $100 a piece they would probably pay for the tree work.

To be honest I didn’t do enough research. Didn’t run enough numbers or shop a round or spend enough time understanding the riders, credits and billing. But I think I spent more time than the average solar customer. It’s expensive but has a reasonable breakeven time frame. The whole house backup is what makes this project valuable to us. I never could have justified the cost without it and the fact that it’s tax credit eligible is a bonus.

Based on current electric rates with no increase and expects solar production, the breakeven point is 11 years including tree work but excluding any energy wise bill credits. Best case it’s a bit over 8 years.

Congratulations, I hope everything goes well and according to plan. That savings on tree work will be great too!

How much overage are you having built in?

I know a lot of people won't even consider solar if the ROI isn't within 5-6 years. They don't get that I can wait for x-teen years (depending on electric prices) for the payback. But, it all depends on goals, and I had several goals, not just saving money eventually. I have not paid a bill since Feb 2023 bill came out. Rises and falls in electric prices don't affect me at all.

 

[EbS-P]

Dang, big users.
I am in a N/S running narrow valley with huuge oaks on the ridges blocking early morning and late afternoon exposure.
2 adults, 2 teenagers. 1700+825 basement conditioned space. Not as hot as NC, but presumably similar to NJ.

I make 6.2 MWh per year and use 5.3 MWh per year. No electric car charging tho. (Hot water is the only thing using nonelectric fuel; wood heat of course, but only below 40-45 F, as it's minisplit otherwise.)

I have a 7.2 kW system on the roof. (20 panels split evenly between E and W facing sides of the ridge).

My point is this: does 1 (10 kWh?) battery store enough for you, EbS-P?

Well it’s emergency backup. So I figure it’s enough to run fridge and essentials for a day or three if we keep the ac off. I don’t see any financial incentive to go bigger. Adding a second power wall would add $6k out of pocket maybe more. I’m sure I could save 10% by being more frugal, but 5 kids use lots of hot water, have lots of dirty laundry (15 regular sized loads a week which I hang out whenever possible) eat lots, and make lots of dirty dishes.

I do need more attic insulation. That would cut some. Possibly another 5-10%. Car had charged 1Mw. So there’s another 10%. Water heating accounts for 10-20% of my usage.

No it’s not “enough” but it’s the cheapest option.

Congratulations, I hope everything goes well and according to plan. That savings on tree work will be great too!

How much overage are you having built in?

I know a lot of people won't even consider solar if the ROI isn't within 5-6 years. They don't get that I can wait for x-teen years (depending on electric prices) for the payback. But, it all depends on goals, and I had several goals, not just saving money eventually. I have not paid a bill since Feb 2023 bill came out. Rises and falls in electric prices don't affect me at all.

Design has not been finalized, not sure on the overage. Adding battery storage doesn’t help shorten ROI. But now with our power company it’s the only way to get incentives. Honestly battery backup is probably the only way solar will installed given the advantages of power wall 3. Speculation is that it will support vehicle to grid at some point.

 

[stoveliker]

Funny thing is my installer was from Hawaii where he's been in business for 20 years. Market saturated, so looking to expand in the lower 48.
Pushed heavily for battery storage (2018). After a year he stopped his business on LI (properly transferred warranty to the biggest solar computer). Why?
Not enough people were interested in batteries

I could have told him that before he started given the net metering and fairly reliable grid here (until a tropical storm or worse hits).

 

[EbS-P]

Funny thing is my installer was from Hawaii where he's been in business for 20 years. Market saturated, so looking to expand in the lower 48.
Pushed heavily for battery storage (2018). After a year he stopped his business on LI (properly transferred warranty to the biggest solar computer). Why?
Not enough people were interested in batteries

I could have told him that before he started given the net metering and fairly reliable grid here (until a tropical storm or worse hits).

I think net metering that favors the consumer is over for many states for new installations. I will eventually get around to seeing how much switching to time of use billing would change my bill. But the net metering rider says I have to stay on regular net metering for 24 min and can only change twice in 10 years.

 

[sloeffle]

Many states have enacted community solar rules. The devil is in the details but the general concept is instead of installing a lot of small household systems, one or two community systems are installed, and everyone signed up as part owners get a net metered access to the power being generated.

I'm currently leasing five panels from our electric coops community solar project. When they kicked it off, there was very little interest ( rural area ) and you could lease up to five panels max and then they changed it to ten panels. I wish I would have gotten ten panels now because the price is locked in for a long period.

Congratulations on pulling the trigger on your solar project. Dumb question. what happens when it comes time for a new roof. Do you have to call the solar company ( if they are still around ) and have them come out and have them take everything off the roof and then have them put all of the panes back on ? Any idea what the cost is for that ?

 

[woodgeek]

I'm looking at community solar in my case, but have a few other expensive priorities at the moment, like a kid in college, beefing up retirement fund, deferred maintenance on the homestead, etc.

 

[EbS-P]

I'm currently leasing five panels from our electric coops community solar project. When they kicked it off, there was very little interest ( rural area ) and you could lease up to five panels max and then they changed it to ten panels. I wish I would have gotten ten panels now because the price is locked in for a long period.

Congratulations on pulling the trigger on your solar project. Dumb question. what happens when it comes time for a new roof. Do you have to call the solar company ( if they are still around ) and have them come out and have them take everything off the roof and then have them put all of the panes back on ? Any idea what the cost is for that ?

Roof is 4 years old. Yes the panels must come off. I would imagine that the roofing company sub contracts that out if I don’t want to deal with it. Any solar contractor could do it. My company is local and been established for 15+ years.

 

[stoveliker]

The part of the roof that is below the panels will likely last much longer because of being shielded from the sun (and hail etc).
For me that is a large part of the upper roof; only edges remaining.

 

[begreen]

I tried that site, and it told me I have 1000 hours of full sun per year on my roof. Which sounds about right for my arboretum of a yard.

I get an estimated 1180 hrs per Google's project. We've done much better than that by locating the two arrays off the roof. These are old tech by today's standard, but at least they are paid for. The first array was installed in 2011, the second in 2014. Together they generate about 5.5mWh/year.

 

[woodgeek]

I get an estimated 1180 hrs per Google's project. We've done much better than that by locating the two arrays off the roof. These are old tech by today's standard, but at least they are paid for. The first array was installed in 2011, the second in 2014. Together they generate about 5.5mWh/year.
View attachment 328067

My Google project estimate was 1000 hours. I checked, and the small 60W hobby panel I have only banks 18 kWh's per year into its LFP. Or about 300 hours! Its just under my roofline, but I doubt I get 600 hours on the roof.

More to the point, the house is the only clear part of my yard... the rest is all trees.

 

[stoveliker]

The estimate (not google; it's still not available where I live) from a satellite pic was 28 percent off (too high) as compared to the estimate from the fish eye camera that my installer did (8 pics, on all 4 corners of the 2 arrays).

Edit: the satellite pic production estimate was done by the same installer at first visit with the note that a proper (fish eye) had to be done before a proper quote would be provided - so not a crook promising more than it would be.

The fish eye pics were 4% lower than the actual performance over the integrated (see weather variation) first 5 years. (And panel degradation might have affected that already - though I don't see any yet after 6 yrs within the weather variations.)

My installer said that folks that use satellite pics, even fancy methods where shadowing of the array is calculated based on shadow length of trees etc., are lazy and don't provide reliable data.

His remark has panned out in my case.
Maybe not in everybody's case, but you won't know until. you install and have production going. And at that point it's too late.

The estimate is supposed to inform decisions, and therefore needs to be reliable.
Having provided a datapoint where overhead (satellite) pics were demonstrably not reliable (but not having datapoints regarding fish eye pics with solar tracks imposed for other situations than my own), I still suggest everyone to demand fish eye pics. They are simply data that *show* the fraction of daytime that the array is not shadowed, rather than estimating it.

These cameras have compass and level quantification (i.e. the exact orientation w.r.t. where the sun is, is known).

 

[begreen]

Agreed. Our arrays were installed pre-Google project. Estimates were calculated by the results from a camera-based system.

 

[bogieb]

Interestingly, when I looked at my Enphase monitor yesterday, this banner came up.

From the main initial article


From looking around and clicking on some links



Says on the website that the batteries come with a 15 year warranty

I thought I read on the site somewhere that my microinverters probably don't support the Enphase battery. Even if a special area doesn't need to be built, it would be a PITA to install now as my town would need to approve install (and inspect afterwards, I I would have to inform the government and maybe start my "power plant" application all over again for RECs, and then there is also the work with Eversource. My install company would take care of most of that - but I'm pretty sure I would have to do the government / REC thing myself (although maybe not)

Eh, it's nice to dream but I'll probably not try to go any further.

 

[EbS-P]

Design will be

Interestingly, when I looked at my Enphase monitor yesterday, this banner came up.

View attachment 328074

From the main initial article

View attachment 328075
From looking around and clicking on some links

View attachment 328076

Says on the website that the batteries come with a 15 year warranty

I thought I read on the site somewhere that my microinverters probably don't support the Enphase battery. Even if a special area doesn't need to be built, it would be a PITA to install now as my town would need to approve install (and inspect afterwards, I I would have to inform the government and maybe start my "power plant" application all over again for RECs, and then there is also the work with Eversource. My install company would take care of most of that - but I'm pretty sure I would have to do the government / REC thing myself (although maybe not)

Eh, it's nice to dream but I'll probably not try to go any further.

Duke is offering $5400 for a battery install and then onto that you can get $52 a month.

Here is the rider that you must use for 24 months. Basically there is a $0.67 per kw name plate grids access fee and a 28$ minimum bill that is not offset by credits. Net metering is done per TOU period. Excess power it credited at $0.034 per kWh.

Sooo… read on if you want. It’s more complicated that I have time to really understand right now. I don’t think it should be.

https://www.duke-energy.com/-/media/pdfs/for-your-home/rates/dep-nc/leaf-no-670-rider-rsc-ry1.pdf?rev=7d2d0b1801584f0c83ec5d9133743bbd