Massachusetts passes sweeping climate law

[EbS-P]

You guys are so funny. Half the time you worry that someone is going to force a building code on you for something that won't pay off, and then you complain that the code required insulation level (that varies with regional climate) is too little.

The missing factor here is the cheapness of energy. Historically, energy was and IS very cheap. So the optimum level of insulation is surprisingly low. The amount of savings between an R-30 attic and an R-60 attic is quite small, since the heat cost goes like the reciprocal. In my climate, I doubt it would pay. Maybe I did the calc when I had R-30 blown in 10 years ago...

This cheapness of energy... its why we don't all live in passive houses. Or drive Aptera EVs.

And cheap wind, cheap offshore wind, and cheap solar PV are throwing a hard ceiling on energy costs. Folks that are pushing 'energy prices will skyrocket!' headlines... are trying to sell you something.

Yeah yeah, I know there is a gas crisis in the EU. Just a blip. In the long run... no problem.

I’m guessing in 10 years I will be paying more for electricity than I am now. No data just feeling that Dukes share holders want to see ever increasing profits.

 

[woodgeek]

I’m guessing in 10 years I will be paying more for electricity than I am now. No data just feeling that Dukes share holders want to see ever increasing profits.

Funny story. This new way of making cheap electrical power was invented. Its called solar PV. In a utility installation, the total SYSTEM cost (panels, inverters, mounts, everything) in 2021 has fallen to $0.90/Watt. After tax incentives... maybe $0.75/Watt. And it will run, more or less maintenance free for decades.

That Watt of PV will make close to 2 kWh per year of energy. In the first 10 years, that 75 cents of PV will make 15-20 kWh. Sure sounds like you could sell that power at a profit, for pennies per kWh. And indeed, that is what the PV builders bid it at.

Crazy! you say. If that were true, utilities would be installing PV as fast as they possibly can, and hardly installing anything else. Yup that is exactly what has been happening for a couple years now. The only other thing they build is onshore wind, which is even cheaper. LOL.

How much utility solar was built in 2021? 18,000 MW of capacity in the US. That is as much electrical energy as 3 or 4 big 1,000 MW nuke plants would make, added just in 2021, making power for pennies per kWh. Yeah, that is not a projection, it was last year.

And that is completely ignoring, BTW, the measly 4,000 MW installed on US rooftops in 2021.

Since the IRA, that utility solar number is projected to double by 2026, and triple by 2029. Imagine that, as much NEW energy production being added to the grid, continuously, as building a new 1,000 MW nuke every 4-6 weeks just in the US. For the whole back end of this decade.

I think there is gonna be plenty of energy and profits to be made at current (inflation corrected) prices in 2032.

Source: (broken link removed to https://www.seia.org/sites/default/files/2022-03/USSMI%20-%202021%20YIR%20ES.pdf)

 

[stoveliker]

The missing factor here is the cheapness of energy. Historically, energy was and IS very cheap. So the optimum level of insulation is surprisingly low. The amount of savings between an R-30 attic and an R-60 attic is quite small, since the heat cost goes like the reciprocal. In my climate, I doubt it would pay. Maybe I did the calc when I had R-30 blown in 10 years ago...

You are only thinking in economic terms; the optimum level, as set by dollar cost. I added insulation (from R19 to R47) and air sealed my attic. Did all myself. Cost $1000 in fiber glass and a few tens for silicone and spray foam cans. And 6 weekends.


The problem with cost determined like this is that not all cost has been included. I did it for my wallet and for the environment. Simple as that.

 

[ABMax24]

Funny story. This new way of making cheap electrical power was invented. Its called solar PV. In a utility installation, the total SYSTEM cost (panels, inverters, mounts, everything) in 2021 has fallen to $0.90/Watt. After tax incentives... maybe $0.75/Watt. And it will run, more or less maintenance free for decades.

That Watt of PV will make close to 2 kWh per year of energy. In the first 10 years, that 75 cents of PV will make 15-20 kWh. Sure sounds like you could sell that power at a profit, for pennies per kWh. And indeed, that is what the PV builders bid it at.

Crazy! you say. If that were true, utilities would be installing PV as fast as they possibly can, and hardly installing anything else. Yup that is exactly what has been happening for a couple years now. The only other thing they build is onshore wind, which is even cheaper. LOL.

How much utility solar was built in 2021? 18,000 MW of capacity in the US. That is as much electrical energy as 3 or 4 big 1,000 MW nuke plants would make, added just in 2021, making power for pennies per kWh. Yeah, that is not a projection, it was last year.

And that is completely ignoring, BTW, the measly 4,000 MW installed on US rooftops in 2021.

Since the IRA, that utility solar number is projected to double by 2026, and triple by 2029. Imagine that, as much NEW energy production being added to the grid, continuously, as building a new 1,000 MW nuke every 4-6 weeks just in the US. For the whole back end of this decade.

I think there is gonna be plenty of energy and profits to be made at current (inflation corrected) prices in 2032.

Source: (broken link removed to https://www.seia.org/sites/default/files/2022-03/USSMI%20-%202021%20YIR%20ES.pdf)

To ground this thread in reality, the sun doesn't shine at night. And there isn't a cost effective method to store energy for nighttime use.

Electricity prices will increase in most places for at least the next 10 years, at which time they might level off or drop.

This doesn't even include the substantial upgrades required in most of north America required to support EVs and a low carbon future.

 

[peakbagger]

There is a cost effective way of storing energy at night. Has it been deployed? not yet, there has to be societal decision to change course and in the US that has not happened. Most areas have the equivalent of the CA duck curve (solar influenced) although it may look like some other animal. Texas has a different curve due to windfarms. If northeast deploys offshore wind, the curve will look different. Odds are the overnight storage will not be lithium and will look different region by region. There are several proven flow battery chemistries out there that do not require rare elements. They are lower power density but cheaper. If fossil generation is kept artificially cheap by not putting a value on carbon emissions, then storage is expensive, but in carbon pricing and suddenly renewables with storage are cheap and investors will be lined up to put in storage.

Storage is a chicken and egg situation which got sidelined in the US for a minimum of four years plus an election cycle and the time spent dealing with January 6th. The federal government in the US has essentially been frozen until the recent major legislation and even that had to be bought with some very unappealing backroom dealing. In the mean times states are having to take the initiative and some are. It will be learning curve just as dealing with climate change will be. Compared to climate change its far easier to control the shift to renewables.

 

[EbS-P]

There is a cost effective way of storing energy at night. Has it been deployed, not yet, there has to be societal decision to change course and in the US that has not happened. Most areas have the equivalent of the CA duck curve (solar influenced) although it may look like some other animal. Texas has a different curve due to windfarms. If northeast deploys offshore wind, the curve will look different. Odds are the overnight storage will not be lithium and will look different region by region. There are several proven flow battery chemistries out there that do not require rare elements. They are lower power density but cheaper. If fossil generation is kept artificially cheap by not putting a value on carbon emissions, then storage is expensive, but in carbon pricing and suddenly renewables with storage are cheap and investors will be lined up to put in storage.

Storage is a chicken and egg situation which got sidelined in the US for a minimum of four years plus an election cycle and the time spent dealing with January 6th. The federal government in the US has essentially been frozen until the recent major legislation and even that had to be bought with some very unappealing backroom dealing. In the mean times states are having to take the initiative and some are. It will be learning curve just as dealing with climate change will be. Compared to climate change its far easier to control the shift to renewables.

Tesla is making 42 mega packs a week in Nevada. That’s 120 Mwh of new storage a week. I imagine global production rates will continue to increase. Call that 6 GWh new storage minimum per year. They claim to have 5+ GWh already deployed.

Texas’s solar and wind generation curves are really impressive. One would assume they are running the wind at full capacity but I can’t confirm.

 

[Prof]

Threads like this make me want to drink more than I do--which would make my PCP less than happy. Either way, I suspect that I will be OK. I worry about him though, he is a skinny guy that the next pandemic may be more than he has the constitution for. At any rate, EVs are the way of the future, as much as the model T once was. The grid will catch up. In the mean time (probably the time I have left on the planet), hybrids will do just fine--likely better. I will have solar panels on my house, a heat-pump hot water heater, and a hybrid in my garage (maybe.... the old skid steer--a diesel, takes up most of the space). At any rate, we will abide with less of a footprint than my grandparents. My kids will do markedly better than I did--in more ways than this. We will be fine as what we know changes.

 

[ABMax24]

Tesla is making 42 mega packs a week in Nevada. That’s 120 Mwh of new storage a week. I imagine global production rates will continue to increase. Call that 6 GWh new storage minimum per year. They claim to have 5+ GWh already deployed.

Texas’s solar and wind generation curves are really impressive. One would assume they are running the wind at full capacity but I can’t confirm.

While that is an absolutely incredible amount of battery storage, it's still a drop in the bucket. The Province of Alberta is 4.3 million people, and averages 9500mw of electrical consumption, an entire years output of the Nevada Gigafactory would only be enough battery capacity to power us for about 40 minutes. It would take over a decade of building batteries to get us through the night if we were to rely on 100% PV power.

Again, nothing short of impressive, but orders of magnitude less capacity than the world needs.

 

[EbS-P]

While that is an absolutely incredible amount of battery storage, it's still a drop in the bucket. The Province of Alberta is 4.3 million people, and averages 9500mw of electrical consumption, an entire years output of the Nevada Gigafactory would only be enough battery capacity to power us for about 40 minutes. It would take over a decade of building batteries to get us through the night if we were to rely on 100% PV power.

Again, nothing short of impressive, but orders of magnitude less capacity than the world needs.

I completely agree. What percent if total generating capacity will storage make up? I want to know how many hours a day we would be running in batteries. Presumably it’s less than 12. Probably they are most profitable during peak times. But is that 2 or 4 or 8 hours a day. I think as we transition to to more solar and wind there would be secondary peak times that would not be driven by demand but by supply.

 

[woodgeek]

To ground this thread in reality, the sun doesn't shine at night. And there isn't a cost effective method to store energy for nighttime use.

What is unrealistic? The report I linked suggested a US Solar PV fleet size of 700,000 MW in 2032, post the IRA passage. Without passage, the estimate was 460,000 MW.

The installed 2021 PV fleet in the US is 120,000 MW.

Assuming that the capacity factor is 17% (1/6) then the 2021 fleet provides the same energy as 20 1,000 MW nukes running flat out.

The projected 2032 fleet is 6x larger, the same as adding 100 new 1,000 MW nukes, in terms of energy delivered. For pennies per kW.

Storage? Why? As impressive as the numbers above are, in 2021, solar only provided about 3% of US grid energy. Growing by 6X over the next decade only gets solar to 18% of energy. A little googling shows that that is just where California is right now... about 20% of grid energy. Without much storage.

The projected decadal buildout just brings the rest of the US up to the 2021 CA level.

As we approach that level, there are a lot of options:
1. Throttling back gas and hydro production during the day.
2. trackers... to give a flatter power output throughout the day, and more power in the afternoon. Adds about 15-20% to the install cost, but yields more energy.
3. offering TOU rates to residential or industrial customers to increase demand during high solar production period. With the larger fleet of EVs in the 2030, this is more helpful than now.
4. Curtailment of some PV during some peak production.

And when all that runs out... then we do storage. We will need storage to go much further than that.

Source: (broken link removed to https://www.seia.org/sites/default/files/2022-03/USSMI%20-%202021%20YIR%20ES.pdf)

 

[stoveliker]

To ground this thread in reality, the sun doesn't shine at night.

To add a lighter note to this thread: huh? Yes it does 😂

 

[ABMax24]

I completely agree. What percent if total generating capacity will storage make up? I want to know how many hours a day we would be running in batteries. Presumably it’s less than 12. Probably they are most profitable during peak times. But is that 2 or 4 or 8 hours a day. I think as we transition to to more solar and wind there would be secondary peak times that would not be driven by demand but by supply.

There's going to be a need for both daily, and seasonal storage. Of course daily storage is what will be built first.

The time needs will vary greatly by region. In my case about 80% of our electricity is generated by natural gas or coal. To completely leave fossil fuels behind batteries would need to carry 80% of the load for at least 12 hours, and then pray it isn't cloudy the next morning.

Obviously load shifting will have to occur to decrease reliance on batteries, and electricity pricing in my province will reverse. Currently the highest wholesale pricing occurs during the day, when demand is highest. That will flip, and occur at night, when battery storage and other means handle the load.

What is unrealistic?

That solar PV installations will push electricity rates down in the short term, which is what your post was responding to.

 

[sloeffle]

And cheap wind, cheap offshore wind, and cheap solar PV are throwing a hard ceiling on energy costs. Folks that are pushing 'energy prices will skyrocket!' headlines... are trying to sell you something.

My electric bill says otherwise. They raised our rates a few years ago, and they said they are going to raise them again. My electric coop is not for profit too.

 

[EbS-P]

My electric bill says otherwise. They raised our rates a few years ago, and they said they are going to raise them again. My electric coop is not for profit too.

Short term they have to follow price of natural gas. Yes they have gone up and probably will again in the next 12 months. I do agree 20-30 year lifespan solar panels have low cost per watt and that will result in lower prices at some point. Currently we are at 13.X cents per kWh total bill. It will go up again 7% next year. But we are one Governors election away from a rate commission that will likely approve much steeper increases. I think we could easily see 20 cents a kWh before the renewable revolution drops prices we are paying.

 

[Ashful]

You are only thinking in economic terms; the optimum level, as set by dollar cost.

Like it or not, economics are the terms upon which such decisions are made. The only way to coerce better decisions in this country is to make them work on economic terms.

To add a lighter note to this thread: huh? Yes it does 😂

Spoken like a scientist, not an engineer.

Electricity prices will increase in most places for at least the next 10 years, at which time they might level off or drop.

I've been hearing this since I bought my first house in the 1990's. Thank God they were wrong, and continue to be wrong, and will probably always continue to be wrong. Energy from my electric utility have varied between flat and decreasing, year by year when factoring for inflation, since at least the mid-1990's. In fact, my bundled rate has gone down by $.01/kWh over the last five years.

 

[ABMax24]

I've been hearing this since I bought my first house in the 1990's. Thank God they were wrong, and continue to be wrong, and will probably always continue to be wrong. Energy from my electric utility have varied between flat and decreasing, year by year when factoring for inflation, since at least the mid-1990's. In fact, my bundled rate has gone down by $.01/kWh over the last five years.

"Past performance is not indicative of future results"

Our electricity prices have nearly doubled in the last 2 years, yours will also go up when rate hikes are approved due to the increasing cost of fuel for the powerplants.

 

[SpaceBus]

The climate crisis won't be solved because it's the right thing to do for humans and the planet, but because it will be the most profitable course of action.

 

[EbS-P]

"Past performance is not indicative of future results"

Our electricity prices have nearly doubled in the last 2 years, yours will also go up when rate hikes are approved due to the increasing cost of fuel for the powerplants.

I think as the energy markets become more global and we build more interconnections to the grid we are likely to see more uniform rates across the country. CA and New England may not see much increase but I really am just speculating

 

[stoveliker]

The only way to coerce better decisions in this country is to make them work on economic terms.

Not everyone is like that. People do make the right choices (better decisions) because it's the right thing to do.

I have to say that that statement is an indictment of the selfish attitude of the people in this country.

 

[SpaceBus]

I think as the energy markets become more global and we build more interconnections to the grid we are likely to see more uniform rates across the country. CA and New England may not see much increase but I really am just speculating

I wish I paid Duke energy rates!

 

[EbS-P]

I wish I paid Duke energy rates!

We are at the national average or just above. I would like to see the per customer weighted average California and New England would drive that up.

 

[Ashful]

Not everyone is like that. People do make the right choices (better decisions) because it's the right thing to do.

You’re right, not everyone is like that. But those who are in positions to actually control policy generally are. Very few CEO’s are in their position as a result of making unprofitable decisions. .

 

[sloeffle]

Short term they have to follow price of natural gas. Yes they have gone up and probably will again in the next 12 months. I do agree 20-30 year lifespan solar panels have low cost per watt and that will result in lower prices at some point. Currently we are at 13.X cents per kWh total bill. It will go up again 7% next year. But we are one Governors election away from a rate commission that will likely approve much steeper increases. I think we could easily see 20 cents a kWh before the renewable revolution drops prices we are paying.

I’m in Ohio, so most of our electricity is generated from coal. The per ton price of thermal coal is the highest it’s been in the last 5 years.

Coal - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News

Coal decreased 0.50 USD/MT or 0.34% since the beginning of 2024, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Coal - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on October of 2024.

tradingeconomics.com

Our electric coop has put over a billion dollars worth of scrubbers in their coal plant over the last number of years. I don’t see them abandoning their investment in that plant anytime soon.

I’m all for renewable energy, but I think we should look at what’s going on in Europe and what happened in Texas a number of years ago before we close all of our traditional power plants.

 

[stoveliker]

What is happening in Europe has nothing to do with "closing all traditional power plants".

 

[EbS-P]

I’m in Ohio, so most of our electricity is generated from coal. The per ton price of thermal coal is the highest it’s been in the last 5 years.

Coal - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News

Coal decreased 0.50 USD/MT or 0.34% since the beginning of 2024, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Coal - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on October of 2024.

tradingeconomics.com

Our electric coop has put over a billion dollars worth of scrubbers in their coal plant over the last number of years. I don’t see them abandoning their investment in that plant anytime soon.

I’m all for renewable energy, but I think we should look at what’s going on in Europe and what happened in Texas a number of years ago before we close all of our traditional power plants.

They are blips. And probably should inform policy. Not anything we need rush to action over. With the huge exception that the the design temps that generating stations in Texas were built to were completely inadequate and they knew it. But 10 years ago I don’t think anyone would have guessed Russians would invade a sovereign nation. As for Texas, that really is just a Texas thing. No other energy market in the US operates like that. It will get record cold again. More probable is record heat. Systems will fail and backups need to be thoughtfully engineered. Coal is will go the way if the horse. Some places it will hang on longer. They all see the writing on the wall. Ohioans emissions that four over new England were a catalyst to a lot the earlier regulations.