This and recent discussions have also altered my thinking a bit.
Previously, I have been excited by the emergence of lower carbon solutions to provide the energy services my family needs, and have happily been an early adopter of same. Often, it has been possible to argue that the lower carbon solution is zero or negative cost with respect to 'business as usual'. The exciting thing about the latter, is what it portends for mass adoption....many people will happily adopt such a climate friendly solution with a little, um, advocacy and education.
My point HERE is that these solutions do not always work out to be zero/negative cost, AND that my current thinking is that that may be a obsolete standard (for me) to apply to such solutions.
Some examples:
(1) Airsealing and insulation work on my 1960 house, originally with oil-heat at 1100 gallons/year. Reduced heating and cooling BTU requirements by ~50%. I got the first 30-35% myself DIY, at minimal material cost. But
in retrospect, this was really a time-sucking distraction for several years of my life, that I might have put some of that energy into my family and career. Probably better than going to a casino or playing video games, I guess, but not 'cost free'. I then had additional (harder) work done by pros, for a few $k, on a 0% loan (as a mid-career saver, I worry about time value of money). CO2 savings are 6 tons per year. Energy savings are $1500/year, higher when oil was higher. Lets call it negative $ cost per ton carbon, but a BIG cost in the PITA factor.
(2) Switching my HVAC supply from oil/window ACs to central ASHP. Project cost was a $4k more than just getting central AC (which I would have done anyway), but
in retrospect, heavy loads on current ASHPs in my climate probably require replacement every 7-12 years, incurring an additional operating and PITA cost. Running on local PA renewable power, I save another 7 tons CO2/yr, at an energy equivalent cost of $2.50/gallon oil. Factoring in hardware wear-out costs (hattip to
@Highbeam) can be $500-750 per year adjusts that operating cost to $3.50-$4.00 /gallon heating oil, above my market costs for all but a few purchases in the last 10 years. So in the end, my cost is probably close to $100/ton.
(3) I don't do solar on my super shady site, and I have shamefully trolled
@jebatty several times on PV returns. Simple payback on PV can be 7-10 years, I gather, for recent projects, which sounds like a 10-15% ROI, negative cost net investment. But, in my opinion, this is erroneous, since there is no principle return a 7 year simple payback (15% return) has zero ROI over the simple payback period, and returns 100% above investment after **two** simple payback periods, so would be like a 7.5% simple return after 15 years. For a 10 year simple payback, the simple return might be 5% ROI after 20 years. Because of the time value of money however, the 'rule of 72' would suggest that the 7 year return is like a 5% CAGR over 14 years, and the 10 year simple return is a 3.5% CAGR return over 20 years. It is easy to argue the same money index invested would have much higher returns. So while PV might save 5 tons /year, the cost is not really negative, but instead closer to zero or positive depending on one's investing ability/habits. In practice, changes to the net-metering environment seem likely on the 14-20 year horizon, which may degrade even this meager return...hard to predict. But if you end up a sevaral $thou in the hole in a NPV sense worst case, on 50-100 tons CO2 total savings, you are probably costing $50-100/ton saved.
(4) For the cheap Gen 1 EV case, I made a spreadsheet during the expensive gas era that figured I got a new car for $50/mo, relative to a beater it replaced, and would save about 4 tons CO2/yr. It looked like a negative cost. As it happened, gas got cheap, wiping out $50/month of my savings. And higher insurance was close to another $50-75/month.
In retrospect, however, I needed to replace the beater anyway, and could have leased a similarly functional Altima for a similar operating cost (since I would have put more miles on the Altima too). So, in the end, the cost difference is in the weeds, maybe $0 per ton, but with lots of uncertainty (mostly positive cost) about other cheaper car options I might have taken (like buying a cheap hybrid, rather than leasing a mid-range conventional). Could easily be $50-100/ton CO2.
So am I a pessimist now....nope. But I am thinking that I am done advocating that all these solutions are 'easy' and negative/zero cost. (I think that HPWHs and LED bulbs are still there...just do those
)!
Do I have regret, definitely NOT. Each of these technologies above has gone through remarkable changes in the last 10 years, mostly in terms of increasing availability and much lower costs. These ARE all early adopter technology (including the home airsealing stuff....most have not done that work to the current state of the art). And the changes we see have been wrought by our choice to be early adopters (and advocates to others). Mass adoption (in the future) will benefit and ultimately be enabled by what we have done in the last 10 years.
We as early adopters are remaking the energy systems in our country, just in time to do a lot of good. And that is not reflected in our cost per ton above.
But its not enough. At the end of the day, an 'all of the above' strategy gets about 50% CO2 reduction. Per the scary New York Magazine article (and my recent 4 ton CO2 business trip to asia) it all seems kinda inadequate and lame.
In summary...if you want to be zero carbon....go buy some effin' offsets. They are EASY and only cost $10/ton. Figure out what you emit as a family, and buy them. Done, you are now a 'zero-carbon family'. Got a little more money, offset your neighbors too.
(broken link removed to https://www.terrapass.com/product/individuals-families)
If its good enough for Al Gore...its good enough for you!
But that aside....why do I do it? Is it about saving pennies (or more often the case, not)? Is it about saving the world (it doesn't). Nope, its about being the change you want to see in the world. And that's all.
