Expensive gas prices lead to more EV registrations

[begreen]

25% of new car registrations are for EVs in King County, WA. A few years ago it was just 3%. This is a remarkable shift. A year ago, only 13% of King County’s new cars were electric. Three years ago it was just 5%. One big incentive is gas prices. Our area has the highest gas prices in the nation at around $5/gal. Overall in the state EV registrations are up by 34% over last June which was another record-breaking month for EVs. The trend is clear, the state is rapidly moving toward electric vehicles, particularly in its most populated areas. A J.D. Power study this month identified the top five states for EV adoption — California, Washington, Hawaii, Oregon, and Nevada. They are also the five states with the highest gas prices. It’s no coincidence.

However, there is a dark side to this transition. The high price of EVs builds in an inherent elitism. Someone living from paycheck to paycheck is not going to buy a Tesla. This issue has to be addressed. EVs can't just be for the well-off.

 

[woodgeek]

That JD Power graphic is annoying, it is not clear what the numbers are... I guess they are an undefined 'EV Index'.

As for the elitism... there are plenty of (after incentive) BEVs now that are around the median price of a new 2023 ICE car, which is $47k.

Folks making less money are driving used cars, period. And the way to have used BEVs available for sale at a reasonable price.... sell lots of new BEVs and just wait a few years.

One issue I can see here is battery longevity, and I assume most EV batteries will last at least 12±2 years. But of course, a lot of genuinely lower earning people are driving ICE cars older than that... and those might not exist a decade from now.

Of course, I am an optimist on this point too, due to the adoption of LFP batteries, which live much longer, AND the fact that in a few years new BEVs will cost less than new comparable ICE vehicles, so that should depress all car costs well below current levels.

 

[begreen]

As for the elitism... there are plenty of (after incentive) BEVs now that are around the median price of a new 2023 ICE car, which is $47k.

The recent jump in new car prices has made it harder for modest-income people to buy a new car, never mind an EV. The price has to drop to around $25K or less to be considered affordable. It's unfortunate that so many new cars now sell in the luxury price range of $80-100K. This has dramatically skewed the median price. $47K is definitely in elite territory. It's more than we are likely to pay for a car on retiree income. Saying that they will have to buy used, is a bit harsh but likely true for many. It does have the sound of 'let them eat cake' though. Unfortunately, the used car market also spiked in price and inventory is low, at least in our area.

 

[EbS-P]

Electricity prices are average too. That good for adoption.

 

[woodgeek]

The recent jump in new car prices has made it harder for modest-income people to buy a new car, never mind an EV. The price has to drop to around $25K or less to be considered affordable. It's unfortunate that so many new cars now sell in the luxury price range of $80-100K. This has dramatically skewed the median price. Saying that they will have to buy used, is a bit harsh but likely true for many. It does have the sound of 'let them eat cake' though. Unfortunately, the used car market also spiked in price and inventory is low, at least in our area.

As for elitism, I suppose I'm guilty as charged. While new (ICE) car prices have jumped in the last few years, they were surprisingly high even 5 years ago.

I found this...

The Average New Car Price Is Unbelievably High

If you were to guess what the average new car price is nowadays, what would you guess? I guessed $25,000, since my Honda Fit is sweet for an economy car and only costs $19,600 new. Given I'm frugal, leaving a 20% upside pricing buffer seemed logical. Too bad I was way off! According to Kelley Blue

www.financialsamurai.com

Looks like the average new car price was $30k in 2012. And rose by 16% corrected for inflation (1.3/1.12) before the pandemic started.

It also looks like the inflation corrected 2012 price would be $39,600 in 2023 (+30%). Versus the actual number being $48k.

So I guess I'm quibbling on your $25k in 2023 dollars number. That is a little over HALF of the $39k figure I get scaling 2012 figures.

And at any rate, there are currently EV options close to the $39k figure. And I expect that future mature EVs (like 3-6 years from now) will sell at level 20-30% below comparable ICE cars. You might get your wish bc of EVs, not despite them!

As for why car prices historically rose faster than inflation... it could be:

--Obama's fault for requiring higher mileage standards.
--improvements to passive and active safety systems after crash testing standards improved significantly around 2012.
--Rich people's fault for demanding larger and more luxurious vehicles.
--The dominance of SUVs and the complete death of sedans and small hatches.
--Profit taking by the car makers bidding up their cars due to inflation and supply chains (where poor planning by the makers themselves created to problem), a form of collective price fixing.

or my favorite, all of the above.

 

[begreen]

Pre-pandemic there were several new cars for under $20K. Now there are hardly any. If Tesla comes out with a decent $25K car it will be a game changer.

As for the reasons the median car price has risen the fact that the American market is in love with large SUVs and fancy pickup trucks for grocery store trips has something to do with the price increases. This is where the auto manufacturers make the greatest profits. They seem to have abandoned the practical sedan and family wagon for this reason. Now a 2018 Corolla is sometimes selling used for more than it cost new.

 

[woodgeek]

Pre-pandemic there were several new cars for under $20K. Now there are hardly any. If Tesla comes out with a decent $25K car it will be a game changer.

As for the reasons the median car price has risen the fact that the American market is in love with large SUVs and fancy pickup trucks for grocery store trips has something to do with the price increases. This is where the auto manufacturers make the greatest profits. They seem to have abandoned the practical sedan and family wagon for this reason. Now a 2018 Corolla is sometimes selling used for more than it cost new.

Ah, I got you... you are saying there was a low price 'tail' of models on offer. And the tail is gone. Agreed. I would blame... capitalism.

I bought a new Mazda5 for $20k in 2013, and the salesman was making a face like my wife and I smelled bad the whole time. And stepped out from our transaction 2X (leaving us waiting for an hour plus) to close deals with other couples who were buying $$$ SUVs.

We were there for FIVE hours, despite agreeing on a model and price before we arrived.

Good times.

 

[begreen]

Like with climate-changing temperatures, the prices have changed faster than many of our wallets have evolved the ability to cope with. Retirees on fixed incomes need to think long and hard about a new vehicle purchase in spite of being supportive of ending fossil fuel dependencies.

 

[Eman85]

Like with climate-changing temperatures, the prices have changed faster than many of our wallets have evolved the ability to cope with. Retirees on fixed incomes need to think long and hard about a new vehicle purchase in spite of being supportive of ending fossil fuel dependencies.

My part of not being supportive of fossil fuel dependency is to drive less. My newest vehicle is a 2008 SUV and my oldest is a 98 fullsize pickup. I'm going to keep them as long as I can and will most likely buy similar extra vehicle or 2 of the same size as spares. That should last me until I can't drive any more or I'm dead or both.
I think EV's are great, but I'm surely not going to buy new especially at the prices they are. Now if for some reason there was a common sense bare bones EV made that would be appealing at a lower price point. But I'm not driving a 2 door speck for more money than I can drive a 3/4 ton pickup.

 

[EbS-P]

I think we 3 years way from a $25k msrp. Am I marking this up or are the tax credits going to transition to point of sale?

Like with climate-changing temperatures, the prices have changed faster than many of our wallets have evolved the ability to cope with. Retirees on fixed incomes need to think long and hard about a new vehicle purchase in spite of being supportive of ending fossil fuel dependencies.

doesn’t half the population not pay any federal income tax? The tax credit does them zero good. Any one have annual miles driven broken down by taxes paid data?

My part of not being supportive of fossil fuel dependency is to drive less. My newest vehicle is a 2008 SUV and my oldest is a 98 fullsize pickup. I'm going to keep them as long as I can and will most likely buy similar extra vehicle or 2 of the same size as spares. That should last me until I can't drive any more or I'm dead or both.
I think EV's are great, but I'm surely not going to buy new especially at the prices they are. Now if for some reason there was a common sense bare bones EV made that would be appealing at a lower price point. But I'm not driving a 2 door speck for more money than I can drive a 3/4 ton pickup.

That is sound logic I can’t argue against. But the one thing I think will change in the future ( not sure when and it may be more of hope than a sure thing) is that fossil fuels will be considerably more expensive than they are today in the US. It might be a tax or it might be how OPEC survives after peak oil but our oil consumption habits are changing and that will have impacts on price.

We don’t drive more than we have to but with lots of kids work Drs appoints ect. I have charged 654 kWh this month. it’s been a crazy month and that’s missing 600 miles of ICE miles or about 25 gallons of gas.

I get EVs are a good fit for some. But anyone with kids and a job they drive to and drone more than 3 times a week. It just seems like a no brainer to have one EV that covers your weekly routine. That said without the generosity of my brother in law I’d be racking of all those miles on my Odessey which already has 130k on the odometer waiting for the may bank account and price of a 7 seat EV to get much closer together.

 

[Eman85]

Talking about EV's around here is like being anti-gun, pro choice and for LGBTQ rights. Many areas might be embracing them but it's not in rural Merica. Fossil fuels might go up, might not, usually decline in demand causes price drops.
Trucks are too important in this country with no solution in sight for moving freight and not burning diesel. States are finally figuring out they need to start taxing EV's as they're losing road use tax with them.

 

[ABMax24]

Judging by dealer lots here EV demand in waning. The Subaru dealer is a block away from me, they've had the same 2 Solterra's on the lot for almost 6 months now. For Ford, I've seen a few Mach-E's on the streets when they first came out, but not many since. I've yet to see a Lightening on the street.

At one point we were considering trading the wife's truck for an SUV, possibly the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV. I even considered pre-ordering one, ever since they got one on the lot they've always had stock, while they do sell it's nowhere near the demand the Rav 4 Prime seen when it first came out.

Traditional hybrids are somewhat popular, particularly the Toyota models, but our electricity prices are ridiculous right now at 42.5 cents/kwh. There simply isn't a point of cost savings on most PHEV or EV's here when the additional purchase price is factored in. Add into that the power company adds a 50 cent/kwh transmission tariff to fast EV chargers, there's no quick chargers around and no intent to build any.

Cheap EV's could flip this, and consumers could overcome the shortfalls of EV's for significant cost savings. Unfortunately that would likely mean importing EV's, mostly from Asia from a manufacturer like BYD, and that really doesn't play well with most western economic policies right now.

 

[woodgeek]

Talking about EV's around here is like being anti-gun, pro choice and for LGBTQ rights. Many areas might be embracing them but it's not in rural Merica. Fossil fuels might go up, might not, usually decline in demand causes price drops.
Trucks are too important in this country with no solution in sight for moving freight and not burning diesel. States are finally figuring out they need to start taxing EV's as they're losing road use tax with them.

There are definitely large regional differences. When folks can buy great EVs for cheaper than ICE cars, they will be adopted.

Tesla Semi is on the roads in small numbers. Looks like operating costs per mile are well below that of Diesel powered semis, so adoption could be rapid. But Tesla is still building out the megawatt class fast charging network they will require.

As for gas tax... roads cost way more than states collect in gas taxes, bc pols have been capping and cutting the gas tax to score points for decades. I for one would be happy to have the same amount (say the tax I would pay on 300 gallons of gas per year, about $200) for my annual EV registration. Of course, most road wear and damage is done by heavy duty trucks, not little cars.

 

[EbS-P]

There are definitely large regional differences. When folks can buy great EVs for cheaper than ICE cars, they will be adopted.

Tesla Semi is on the roads in small numbers. Looks like operating costs per mile are well below that of Diesel powered semis, so adoption could be rapid. But Tesla is still building out the megawatt class fast charging network they will require.

As for gas tax... roads cost way more than states collect in gas taxes, bc pols have been capping and cutting the gas tax to score points for decades. I for one would be happy to have the same amount (say the tax I would pay on 300 gallons of gas per year, about $200) for my annual EV registration. Of course, most road wear and damage is done by heavy duty trucks, not little cars.

That semi charging infrastructure will need batteries. Think of that 10 trucks charging at once that’s 10Mw! What truck stop has that type of electrical service.

Anyway this was neat.

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[KDubU]

Talking about EV's around here is like being anti-gun, pro choice and for LGBTQ rights. Many areas might be embracing them but it's not in rural Merica. Fossil fuels might go up, might not, usually decline in demand causes price drops.
Trucks are too important in this country with no solution in sight for moving freight and not burning diesel. States are finally figuring out they need to start taxing EV's as they're losing road use tax with them.

I understand some reservations to EV’s and other concerns but I do dislike the whining about high gas prices. I wish people would educate themselves on exactly what and how prices are determined. Don’t disagree I would like to pay $0.25 a gallon but when I see most people driving vehicles that are far larger than they truly need or a sports car/sedan, well then there lies the problem. People need to be smarter. Want a vehicle that has mediocre MPG? Then go for it, but shut the hell up when fuel prices rise.

Me personally have two vehicles that are so-so on MPG and looking at EV’s but I don’t need a new vehicle, I won’t spend a fortune on a depreciable asset and will be entertain an EV when I need to purchase a new vehicle.

Sorry this is not aimed at you. I just grow so tired of the whining on gas prices while the person whining is driving something that is lifted, has huge tires and weighs between 5000-7000lbs. It not rocket science.

 

[begreen]

There are definitely large regional differences. When folks can buy great EVs for cheaper than ICE cars, they will be adopted.

Tesla Semi is on the roads in small numbers. Looks like operating costs per mile are well below that of Diesel powered semis, so adoption could be rapid. But Tesla is still building out the megawatt class fast charging network they will require.

As for gas tax... roads cost way more than states collect in gas taxes, bc pols have been capping and cutting the gas tax to score points for decades. I for one would be happy to have the same amount (say the tax I would pay on 300 gallons of gas per year, about $200) for my annual EV registration. Of course, most road wear and damage is done by heavy duty trucks, not little cars.

Locally, I am surprised at how many Rivians have started to pop up. The Lightnings are a bit harder to spot but I have seen a few. Teslas & ID4s are common. I usually see a couple of Mustang EVs a week. And today I drove behind the weird little Archimoto for the first time.

Paccar (Kenworth, Peterbilt) is starting to deliver EV trucks as well as Volvo.

FWIW, our state has had a hybrid and EV road tax for several years now.

 

[KDubU]

Locally, I am surprised at how many Rivians have started to pop up. The Lightnings are a bit harder to spot but I have seen a few. Teslas & ID4s are common. I usually see a couple of Mustang EVs a week. And today I drove behind the weird little Archimoto for the first time.

Paccar (Kenworth, Peterbilt) is starting to deliver EV trucks as well as Volvo.

FWIW, our state has had a hybrid and EV road tax for several years now. It's $200 for EVs.

I like the Rivians but the price I am not willing to pay. Cute truck with pulling power. Have seen a couple of the SUV’s now too.

 

[begreen]

Correction:In WA state, owners of all-electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles with an all-electric range of at least 30 miles must pay an annual registration fee of $150 and a $75 transportation electrification fee in addition to standard vehicle fees. The transportation electrification fee contributes to state programs supporting the adoption of EVs and deployment of EV charging infrastructure. Hybrid electric vehicles and electric motorcycles are also subject to an additional annual fee of $75 and $30, respectively.

Yes, a Rivian is way out of my price range too. It is an impressive vehicle. One just won the Pikes Peak Hill Climb race and set a new record for a stock vehicle. He has something like .5% charge left at the end.

 

[begreen]

Another downer about the high price of the new EVs is that our state sales tax exemption is only for vehicles below $45,000. That narrows the field down a lot and you can't apply the trade-in value of the car to drop the sale price.

 

[Eman85]

I don't whine about gas prices, most that do don't understand supply and demand while they are sitting in line to get gas/diesel at the local station. Don't now how it is in some other areas but I've driven away many times without getting gas because of the lines and craziness at the pumps. I guess I'm one the guys people might be upset with when you see me driving my
big 3/4 ton truck by myself. On the other hand my truck has less than 3k mi. put on it in well over a year. The lesser amount of oil changes, brake wear and tire replacement more than makes up for my use of gasoline compared to "efficient" vehicles being driven 25k mi. per year.

 

[semipro]

Paccar (Kenworth, Peterbilt) is starting to deliver EV trucks as well as Volvo.

I've driven Volvo's VNRe electric Class 8 truck. It is impressive...quiet too!

 

[begreen]

I've driven Volvo's VNRe electric Class 8 truck. It is impressive...quiet too!

Drivers seem to love the lack of noise and gears to rack through.

 

[peakbagger]

I was visiting the Seattle area the last two weeks and the gas prices were shocking. 5.50 to 5.90 a gallon. I filled my hybrid today in NH for 3.50 a gallon. Food prices at grocery stores were also pricier my guess was 10% over what I can get locally.

I did use the Seattle light rail system that looks like its being extended north and south of the city. Hard to beat around $3.5 to go from the airport to the Husky Stadium. We used the Link to go into and out fo the city a couple of times. The bus system also seemed to be quite clean and functional. Far better than the T System in the Boston area although I think the coverage area is lower. The monorail to the space needle park was more of rip off.

 

[begreen]

Hope that was when the sun was still shining. Yup, and our neighbors to the north cross the border for cheap gas.

 

[ABMax24]

Vancouver pays just over 70 cents per liter in fuel tax or $1.96 USD per gallon.

Nice place to visit, but far too expensive to live there.