Corona Virus

[begreen]

Many states are closing down restaurants and bars temporarily now. Calif. is telling 65+ yr olds to stay in isolation.

California governor calls for closure of all bars and wineries, home isolation of everyone 65 and older

California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Sunday called for all bars, wineries, nightclubs and brewpubs to close in the nation’s most populous state and urged seniors and people with chronic health con…

ktla.com

Edit: Looks like WA and OR have joined them

 

[MTY]

At work I have to take driver's licenses on a regular basis. Over 65 may be a good generalization, but I am literally stupefied by the horrible condition many individuals under that age are in. On a regular basis I see people in their 40's who could easily pass for 65+. I have people stand and look me right in the eye while complaining about the horrors of old age, when I have 20 years on them. I think that while it might be politically incorrect, it would be more accurate to say, "If you are in lousy shape, stay home!"
The big question may well be, "Were those excessive goodies worth hacking your lungs out?"

 

[Seasoned Oak]

This is playing it fast and loose with the numbers. The reported numbers of infection are only those that have been tested. The actual infected rate could easily be a magnitude or more higher.

13000 test done so far and 90% are negative. How is it that so many showing symptoms tests are coming back negative. 7 States open up drive thru testing. Im getting over a very mild case of the regular flu(i think) right now which is good as i wouldnt want deal with both at once.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

At work I have to take driver's licenses on a regular basis. Over 65 may be a good generalization, but I am literally stupefied by the horrible condition many individuals under that age are in. On a regular basis I see people in their 40's who could easily pass for 65+. I have people stand and look me right in the eye while complaining about the horrors of old age, when I have 20 years on them. I think that while it might be politically incorrect, it would be more accurate to say, "If you are in lousy shape, stay home!"
The big question may well be, "Were those excessive goodies worth hacking your lungs out?"

I was thinking the EXACT same thing today. Were going to be in trouble when half of america is obese , with obesity related issues like diabetes even at a young age.

 

[Medic21]

13000 test done so far and 90% are negative. How is it that so many showing symptoms tests are coming back negative.

Because it’s not the corona virus. It’s a pt that has an illness, negative for flu, blood cultures usually pulled but no results and screened to be tested. Could be a common cold and with a positive screening they get tested.

I’ve said many times here and elsewhere. Until they start testing everyone, with or without symptoms, there will be no concrete number as to how many have this. On top of they blood tests for everyone to see if the antibodies to the virus are present. This will never happen so numbers will be skewed.

 

[Medic21]

This is playing it fast and loose with the numbers. The reported numbers of infection are only those that have been tested. The actual infected rate could easily be a magnitude or more higher. The number infected was clamped down in Wuhan by draconian measures to halt community spread. In Italy, they have a similar issue (as does the US) with limited testing.
(broken link removed to https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200316_08/)

I sincerely hope that in retrospect the damages done by this virus are less than anticipated. But remember that the Spanish Flu morphed over the summer and came back in fall with horrible vengeance. Yes, the metrics are widely in error due to an abysmal lack of testing due to the administration's slavish insistence on only FDA/CDC approved testing. The actual numbers of this disease in the wild are magnitudes higher than delayed and partial testing indicate. This is relative to the same failures indicated in China and Italy.

Which is going to make the death rate very low overall. Under 50 and healthy it really looks like there is nothing to worry about.

 

[MTY]

I wonder how healthy the general population of Italy is. Without knowing something about the condition of the population, there are too many confounds to allow one to extrapolate the death rate data from one country to the world at large.

 

[Medic21]

I wonder how healthy the general population of Italy is. Without knowing something about the condition of the population, there are too many confounds to allow one to extrapolate the death rate data from one country to the world at large.

Average age of the dead is 80.2 years old.

 

[SpaceBus]

I wonder how healthy the general population of Italy is. Without knowing something about the condition of the population, there are too many confounds to allow one to extrapolate the death rate data from one country to the world at large.

A lot of Italians smoke and the air quality is atrocious, especially in Milan and Rome. They are some of the dirtiest cities in Europe.

 

[begreen]

I wonder how healthy the general population of Italy is. Without knowing something about the condition of the population, there are too many confounds to allow one to extrapolate the death rate data from one country to the world at large.

Generally quite healthy, especially in the affluent Lombardy region where the outbreak is concentrated. They have excellent, modern healthcare facilities. One result of their good healthcare is a high number of seniors.

 

[Ashful]

..,cold symptoms, like I do tonight, and I transported a positive pt two days ago. As long as I don’t get a fever I don’t have to worry about a self quarantine either. I won’t be tested regardless. So if I have it I’ll end up in the number that was never added.

... and you’ll be passing it on to many others, some of whom can die from your decision to not get tested or self-quarantine, despite your public admission of direct contact and subsequent symptoms.

The legal aftermath of this thing, the potential wrongful death and loss of income cases against those who knowingly (or even unknowingly) broke self-quarantine and passed it to another who didn’t fare as well, will be interesting to watch. I predict a whole new genre of late night injury lawyer commercials. The criminal side of this is unlikely to see many cases, but the civil side is ripe for picking.

 

[Ashful]

A case of re-infection? Assuming a secondary strain?

(broken link removed to https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200315_13/)

 

[mcdougy]

I noticed in some of the news footage that the drive thru testing swabs appeared to be not done correctly? They were running the swab inside the nostril and placing the swab in the tube. The swab needs to take a sample from 4-5" inside the nose, not the 1-2" I saw in media footage? I assume by the end of the week that all of North America will be shut down for a given period. The average person will not be allowed to work. Wether it's 2 or 4 weeks is yet to be determined.

 

[woodey]

Three of the four Public Libraries within a 7 mile radius of us have temp. closed as of this AM. Heading to the only left open ASAP before the hoarding begins.

 

[woodey]

A case of re-infection? Assuming a secondary strain?

(broken link removed to https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200315_13/)

Maybe a case of the first test being incorrect?

 

[Medic21]

... and you’ll be passing it on to many others, some of whom can die from your decision to not get tested or self-quarantine, despite your public admission of direct contact and subsequent symptoms.

The legal aftermath of this thing, the potential wrongful death and loss of income cases against those who knowingly (or even unknowingly) broke self-quarantine and passed it to another who didn’t fare as well, will be interesting to watch. I predict a whole new genre of late night injury lawyer commercials. The criminal side of this is unlikely to see many cases, but the civil side is ripe for picking.

I don’t meet criteria for a test and unless I have a fever I don’t meet criteria to quarantine based on the guidelines of the cdc. Therefore I won’t be paid. It was reported to the department of health and we follow the direction

 

[Medic21]

A case of re-infection? Assuming a secondary strain?

(broken link removed to https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200315_13/)

Outside of a few publications the thought is it was a lingering infection not necessarily a reinfection. While not the same the other known corona virus infections SARS and MERS Both have shown good immunity following infection. It’s pretty safe to assume this will be the same. That will definitely be studied more in the coming weeks and months. But there’s been so few reports of a possible reinfection it leans more towards they were never over the illness to begin with.

 

[Sodbuster]

I think initially it was a “We have no real idea what we are dealing with” issue. We went from N95 masks to regular masks to masking pt and using your judgement. Being droplet precautions for most instances is much easier than airborne Transmission. With the ventilator, BVM, high flow oxygen there is a chance that the virus could be aerosolized so then it’s tim to take respiratory precautions.
The only benefit of double gloving or double gowning ever would be moving from pt to pt faster. I have occasionally double gloved on accident scenes to triage and prevent cross contamination between pts. An extra pair of gloves won’t help anything for me.

Double gloving my have limited uses in the field vs the OR. University of Michigan's team of specialists, and the AANA is advising double gloving when caring for those with Covid-19.

 

[Medic21]

Double gloving my have limited uses in the field vs the OR. University of Michigan's team of specialists, and the AANA is advising double gloving when caring for those with Covid-19.

The cdc recommends double gloving in the OR as standard practice. There is A documented failure rate of up to 84% for surgeons.

 

[Sodbuster]

13000 test done so far and 90% are negative. How is it that so many showing symptoms tests are coming back negative. 7 States open up drive thru testing. Im getting over a very mild case of the regular flu(i think) right now which is good as i wouldnt want deal with both at once.

Remember the regular flue presents with very similar symptoms, but will come back negative for Covid-19.

 

[peakbagger]

One of the very annoying aspects is that FDA has had serious delays in testing kit approvals. There is a large firm in Southern Maine called Idexx that makes test kits for companion and livestock animals. They can effectively "tune' their basic technology to match whatever "bug" appears quickly. In countries with less stringent regulations the technology is used for humans. They claim to have had CV-19 kits in the field for weeks and recently announced that their testing of dogs and cats indicates few if any infections. https://www.pressherald.com/2020/03...-dogs-for-coronavirus-all-came-back-negative/ This is not new technology, its just Idexx has figured out that trying to get FDA certification for US use doesn't make economic sense so they stick with their target market. These are not invasive tests, there is typically a field test kit and then the sample is sent to local lab for further processing. Sure maybe its not the gold standard but for screening mass populations, is a gold standard test that is seriously limited in availability and turnaround more important than a far more available test and infrastructure that is already deployed across the US?.

With respect to Italy, a typical American is not aware of the deep ties that Italy has with China of late. Italy may have a great health care system but its national government has been on the brink pretty well since WW2. It has had a series of economic crisis's similar to Greece and that has extended to their corporations, they have to pay junk bond rates to attract capital. The Chinese have taken advantage of that to buy their way into Italian business as many other investors decide to send their capital elsewhere. It doesn't get lot of press in the US but there is lot of discussion in Italy that the Chinese companies are not content to own businesses but also move in Chinese nationals to run the businesses while sidestepping the Italian tax system. This has allowed them a significant backdoor into the EEC. Iran also has significant ties to China as China has stepped in during the extended period of sanctions against the country.

 

[vinny11950]

The demand shock on businesses, especially small businesses, is going to be brutal. People are going to stop spending, businesses are going to be stressed, layoffs are going to happen, more consumer spending cut backs. It will spiral out of control if the government doesn't start dropping money from the helicopter, but this time directly to employees who are out of work, or who have lost wages. Right now there is no system to do this, but they better get one ready.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

but this time directly to employees who are out of work, or who have lost wages. Right now there is no system to do this, but they better get one ready.

They could send all us old geezers a bigger SS check. Thats a system always looking for a cash infusion. We keep the economy humming and dont hog up all the jobs.

 

[paulnlee]

Fed lowered the rate again-0- time to refinance?

 

[vinny11950]

They could send all us old geezers a bigger SS check. Thats a system always looking for a cash infusion. We keep the economy humming and dont hog up all the jobs.

No, the target should be to replace and sustain lost wages for all workers, especially the most vulnerable. On the employee side, this means retail, restaurant staffs, employees for industries hit hard like airlines. On the business side, give grants to businesses to pay bills and rents to stay open till people start shopping again.

I guess the federal govn't could pass a huge unemployment/sick leave act that would make up for lost wages, but then again those programs are run at the state level, so expect a lot of people to not get what they need. Worse yet, some states may see that money as a way to fill their own revenue shortfalls.

This is a mess all around.