Projected Fuel Oil Prices

[BrotherBart]

I just checked and Colonial has restarted LIne 02 so hopefully the distillates are flowing again.

 

[Ashful]

Personally I think locking into a contract price is a 50/50 gamble.

If you're referring to pre-buying your oil at lower summer or early-season prices, then it is a bit of a gamble, but nowhere near 50/50. Just take a quick look at any data on seasonal historic pricing:



There are glaring outliers in 2014 - 2016, but almost every year in the last ten show seasonal average pricing well above where it started in October. It's unfortunate that the losses in 2015 were almost large enough to undo the last decade worth of gains, for those folks just blindly pre-buying each year. But those paying attention to the forecasts usually very well with a pre-buy.

 

[jatoxico]

Yes, according to that site HHO ppg is projected to top out about $0.25 higher than current prices this heating season and $0.35 higher by this time next year. Surprisingly (to me at least) the ongoing issues in the Middle East seem to have had little effect on prices compared to previous years. Guessing OPEC trying to put downward pressure on domestic production is responsible and maybe it lasts, but who knows?

In any case I'm willing to pay for auto delivery and a repair contract and I'm not concerned with paying 20 cents above the COD price since it doesn't amount to much. If the projections are accurate I'll be satisfied.

 

[Ashful]

Yeah, I do the same. Having a guy out there the following morning for a repair, when my boiler konks out at 3am Christmas eve, is well worth the extra few cents per gallon I might pay on contract. Ever try to get anyone to service ANYTHING in your home on a weekend or holiday, when you're not under contract?

 

[billb3]

The guy I bought my boiler from services it.

The guy I buy oil from delivers oil.

Easy peasy.