Massachusetts passes sweeping climate law

[stoveliker]

Of course, utility solar is far cheaper than rooftop, so if there is not enough roof space, any open land in the exurbs will do as well. Offshore wind will be helpful for winter electrification needs, but I expect that will get developed off DE, NJ and LI before it comes to Mass at scale. But I'd be happy to be wrong about that.

Again, that depends on who you are asking. Grid (or utility scale) you are right. For the individual, not so much. In fact people pay on average MORE for "green" energy delivered thru a utility.

 

[Tithis]

Find me a renewable energy system that can heat my house cheaper than natural gas can, I will buy it right now.

Its going to depend on your local utility rates and solar incentives

For me here in Mass IF I could get gas it would be around $.92 per therm.
Tesla gives an estimate of $10,743 for a 7.2KW system after tax credits. The PVWatts calculator gives an estimated yearly output of 9,329kwh. From there you can do some simple calculations to get a rough cost per kwh over the systems life. From what I've read 20 years is a reasonable amount of time to keep a solar panel install. We have net metering so excess power I make in the summer gets me credits that I can use to cover my heating in winter.

9,329kwh * 20years = 186,580kwh
$10,743/186,580kwh = ~$.058/kwh.

I currently have a 4 ton Bosch central heat pump paired with a 97% efficient furnace (running off propane, but we'll say its gas)
1 therm is equal to 99976.1 BTUs and burned in my furnace that sends 96977 BTUs into my ductwork.

My heatpumps output and power requirements across multiple indoor and outdoor temperatures is documented. All of the following are assuming an internal air temp of 70f. The following is the BTUs per KWH the system can output at different outdoor temperatures.

@47f: 46,700btu / 3.63kwh = 12865 btu/kwh
@32f: 44,600btu / 4.59kwh = 9716 btu/kwh
@17f: 41,000btu / 5.02kwh = 8167 btu/kwh
@5f: 35,000btu / 4.93kwh = 7099 btu/kwh

Then the cost in electricity to match that 1 therm of gas.

@47f: 7.54kwh * $.058/kwh = $.43355
@32f: 9.98kwh * $.058/kwh= $.57385
@17f: 11.87kwh * $.058/kwh = $.682525
@5f: 13.66kwh * $.058/kwh = $.78545

Then keep in mind my central heatpump is not as efficient as some of the ductless minisplit systems out there. These costs could go down further if you were using some of the Hi2 ductless pumps from Mitsubishi (might get one for the finished room over my detached garage)

 

[Ashful]

Then keep in mind my central heatpump is not as efficient as some of the ductless minisplit systems out there. These costs could go down further if you were using some of the Hi2 ductless pumps from Mitsubishi (might get one for the finished room over my detached garage)

I have one in a finished room above my garage, used as a music studio, and it has been ideal in this application. I installed a wireless wall thermostat with auto-changeover function, so it automatically toggles from heating to cooling as needed, to keep sensitive musical instruments in an acceptable temperature range without my intervention. Rooms above garages can swing frequently from cold to hot, depending on solar, vehicle usage, etc.

My room is only 260 sq.ft. with one window, one door, and double doors into an adjacent attic space. I could get the sizing on my system, if you were looking for a reference point.

 

[Ashful]

I had NBC Nightly News on while working last night, and a story came up that made me remember this thread. Specifically:

National Grid customers in Massachusetts are getting one hell of a rate increase. Looks like its going from .30 kwh to .49 kwh?

Many Mass. Customers Will See a 64% Increase in Their Electric Bills This Winter

Another unprecedented 160% electricity rate increase for Unitil customers in New Hampshire.

Unitil customers can expect a significant rate increase in December, if the utility’s Friday request is granted.

Unitil is asking to increase electric rates to 26 cents per kilowatt-hour, which would take effect on Dec. 1 and last for eight months. That’s a 160 percent increase from the current rate of 10 cents. A typical household can expect its bill to increase 75 to 78 percent, or $85 to $100 depending on energy use.

https://www.nhbr.com/unitil-seeks-160-rate-increase/

Maine has already gone up significantly, I hope it doesn't happen again.

So, the story on the news was a family who had just purchased two new EV's to replace their ICE's. The guy had done a spreadsheet calculating cost of ownership, to justify the 35%'ish higher cost of the EV's they were considering versus the ICE's in the same class, based on fuel savings versus electric utility rates. But it looked to me like he was using pretty optimistic numbers for his electric utility pricing over the ~10 years they might own these vehicles. I am not sure that he planned for ANY rate increase, let alone one of the scale some of you are posting.

I wonder how many buyers, doing the same math based on today's pricing, are going to have their quick math blown out of the water when their electric rates jump up by 64% to 160%?

 

[peakbagger]

This option is looking a lot better these days I have actually upgraded to a 240 Volt EVSEsince then and upgraded the solar panel mounts, but this is a better picture.

 

[Ashful]

That is so cool, peakbagger! Love the engineering.

But what's that rig doing to your TCO? How does this translate to the average commuter, who's not building their own solar charging trailer?

 

[begreen]

Solar went in at our house in 2011, a couple of years before we got the Volt. A second array went in around 2015.

 

[Ashful]

Solar went in at our house in 2011, a couple of years before we got the Volt. A second array went in around 2015.

I did a cost analysis for an uncle earlier this year, on a solar installation. I just couldn't make the numbers work, in terms of ROI. If I assumed he'd replace each of his (presently mostly nat.gas) appliances with the best electric alternatives (eg. HPWH, induction range, etc.) on their typical predicted lifetime schedules, I could only get a payback of 13 years if I ignored the reality of inflation. If I included even 2-3% inflation, the ROI was "never". I had PM'd the spreadsheet over to @woodgeek for a sanity check, and he pretty much agreed with the analysis.

BUT, I don't believe I had included a BEV in that analysis, and even if I did, I might not have predicted the gasoline price futures accurately. Likely not a factor in the analysis I was doing, since my uncle is retired and not racking up sufficient mileage to be a significant factor, but it'd be interesting to see if BEV's can finally make residential solar pay off for those with higher mileage.

I really doubt it will, if the BEV is away at the office during peak solar generation hours, unless we factor net metering or other local storage (additional cost).

 

[stoveliker]

So, your calculations are without net metering? (As in: none of my kWhs get lost, I get to use all of them for I believe 18 years - the meter just runs backwards.)

 

[begreen]

I did a cost analysis for an uncle earlier this year, on a solar installation. I just couldn't make the numbers work, in terms of ROI. If I assumed he'd replace each of his (presently mostly nat.gas) appliances with the best electric alternatives (eg. HPWH, induction range, etc.) on their typical predicted lifetime schedules, I could only get a payback of 13 years if I ignored the reality of inflation. If I included even 2-3% inflation, the ROI was "never". I had PM'd the spreadsheet over to @woodgeek for a sanity check, and he pretty much agreed with the analysis.

BUT, I don't believe I had included a BEV in that analysis, and even if I did, I might not have predicted the gasoline price futures accurately. Likely not a factor in the analysis I was doing, since my uncle is retired and not racking up sufficient mileage to be a significant factor, but it'd be interesting to see if BEV's can finally make residential solar pay off for those with higher mileage.

I really doubt it will, if the BEV is away at the office during peak solar generation hours, unless we factor net metering or other local storage (additional cost).

Yes, the ROI varies from state to state and util. co to utility depending on incentives. I seem to recall New Jersey having some really good incentives but haven't looked into this for several years.

Our system was expensive because it had to be made of WA state components to get the highest returns. We ended up getting a sales tax exemption and $0.54/kwH annual refund, plus net metering rate at $0.10/kWh due to being early adopters. This program ended in 2020. Now we get a flat $0.16/kWh on a second program for net metering, but the equipment has paid for itself. Economically, we bank up solar during the spring through fall, and spend it in the winter.

 

[EbS-P]

I did a cost analysis for an uncle earlier this year, on a solar installation. I just couldn't make the numbers work, in terms of ROI. If I assumed he'd replace each of his (presently mostly nat.gas) appliances with the best electric alternatives (eg. HPWH, induction range, etc.) on their typical predicted lifetime schedules, I could only get a payback of 13 years if I ignored the reality of inflation. If I included even 2-3% inflation, the ROI was "never". I had PM'd the spreadsheet over to @woodgeek for a sanity check, and he pretty much agreed with the analysis.

BUT, I don't believe I had included a BEV in that analysis, and even if I did, I might not have predicted the gasoline price futures accurately. Likely not a factor in the analysis I was doing, since my uncle is retired and not racking up sufficient mileage to be a significant factor, but it'd be interesting to see if BEV's can finally make residential solar pay off for those with higher mileage.

I really doubt it will, if the BEV is away at the office during peak solar generation hours, unless we factor net metering or other local storage (additional cost).

For BEV to be figured in the size for an average 2.5 car is probably as big as the roof

 

[peakbagger]

That is so cool, peakbagger! Love the engineering.

But what's that rig doing to your TCO? How does this translate to the average commuter, who's not building their own solar charging trailer?

I didnt build it, I let Bershire Hathaway and Progressive Insurance pay for most of the new cost. Reportedly they were billed 150K for each trailer. I missed the auctions during Covid but reportedly some sold for 5K, I paid 20K from someone who bought six. The parts are worth more than that. A 240 volts 60AMP nominal 120Amp peak microgrid is something only worth it if I had unreliable power, I do not. But I am looking at building a house that would need a temporary utility drop in an area with notoriously bad power. I would use the trailer to get it build then strip it back into its constituent parts. The forklift batteries are heavy so I cannot tow it behind me and charge it while I am driving.

DC Solar the company that got busted for the huge fraud actually built a couple of similar trailers with Charge Point chargers on them and supposedly they made at least one with hydrogen fuel cell for backup.

 

[Ashful]

Neighbors here with electric heat are worried tonight. The local electric utility has started sending out notices about capacity issues, asking all users to reduce usage.

 

[begreen]

Neighbors here with electric heat are worried tonight. The local electric utility has started sending out notices about capacity issues, asking all users to reduce usage.

Reminds me of when China forced the electrification of some cities in northern China, then ran low on power in a bad cold wave.

 

[Rusty18]

Neighbors here with electric heat are worried tonight. The local electric utility has started sending out notices about capacity issues, asking all users to reduce usage.

We got the same notice...but everyone here is shocked we didn’t lose power during the two days anyways.

 

[tlc1976]

We got the same notice...but everyone here is shocked we didn’t lose power during the two days anyways.

Same here. Been following the electric company website and barely any power outages with the snow and 40-60 mph winds for the last 2 days.

Any other time we get this wind there are tens of thousands of outages all down the state.

 

[MMH]

As someone that has worked in the solar field for awhile early on, I can say that as homer said 'solar is a pipe dream'. You really need a big solar array to produce energy worth mentioning. It is still very costly, and it is costly to maintain. It is an option though, if the effort is put into it to make it more affordable, and to advance the tech more. MASS doesnt exactly get a ton of sun. Wind is another thought, but you REALLY need to consider how big of a farm you need to power a small town. It's alot.

Fossil fuels are the absolute most affordable and efficient means of energy today. There's no doubt.

Americans have an insatiable need for energy. There only ONE way to really solve that right now and in the immediate 20-30 years, and that's nuclear power.

This

 

[SpaceBus]

I think the utilities are scared of a future of cheap energy and are put out these notices to scare customers away from renewables.

 

[woodgeek]

Neighbors here with electric heat are worried tonight. The local electric utility has started sending out notices about capacity issues, asking all users to reduce usage.

I will do my part, sir, by keeping my stove hot. That should leave another 5-6 kW on the local grid.

 

[Rusty18]

I will do my part, sir, by keeping my stove hot. That should leave another 5-6 kW on the local grid.

My house was built all electric, first winter we lived here I put a 30k blue flame in the basement and a 500 gal lp tank in the yard. I will stay warm...of course the encore in the living room does all the work when I am home to feed it.

 

[Ashful]

I will do my part, sir, by keeping my stove hot. That should leave another 5-6 kW on the local grid.

haha! Same here, both stoves were cranking hard on white oak the last several days. Coal build up has been a bit of an issue, but we've learned to deal with that. Our main heat is oil, so little load on the grid. I turned off the outside lights, as the one big load I could easily control.

The minisplit in my little shop (2 floors x 600 sq.ft./ea.) was unable to keep up, the temperature had fallen to 49F when I checked around 1am, but it was only pulling about 2 kW average. I'm going to spend some time this winter trying to figure out why that system always struggles to maintain temperature on cold days.

 

[EbS-P]

I will do my part, sir, by keeping my stove hot. That should leave another 5-6 kW on the local grid.

Went out side at 11pm to unplug the car when I got our notice last night. Put off a couple loads of laundry and running the dishwasher. Unplugged Xmas lights and blowups.

Guess I could have stopped scheduled charging from the app too now I think about it. Stoves were cranking last 3 days. Only need 1.5 loads per day in the basement to keep it above 62. During the day. Heatpump hasn’t been on since the cold front came through. We really need to think about residential thermal storage or backup non electric heat or batteries or large grid battery storage.

 

[peakbagger]

This where my utility is dropping the ball, I had 55 KWh of available power in my batteries and had the switch ready to be flipped if the grid went down. If the utility came up with an incentive for me flip the switch and go microgrid during emergencies, I could have gone off grid for a couple of days using the battery and once the sun was out, I could switch a few parameters on my inverters and get my other solar arrays generating to the microgrid to charge up the batteries.

 

[EbS-P]

This where my utility is dropping the ball, I had 55 KWh of available power in my batteries and had the switch ready to be flipped if the grid went down. If the utility came up with an incentive for me flip the switch and go microgrid during emergencies, I could have gone off grid for a couple of days using the battery and once the sun was out, I could switch a few parameters on my inverters and get my other solar arrays generating to the microgrid to charge up the batteries.

They (the utilities) want to be in charge. And untill they start emergency rate time billing, which I don’t think any regulator would allow mandatory enrollment.

California has piloted the virtual power plan program for smart connected batteries. Which from the media reports is working well. I think that’s the future for residential installs.

 

[woodgeek]

....... We really need to think about residential thermal storage or backup non electric heat or batteries or large grid battery storage.

Or the East Coast just needs a fleet of good offshore wind farms.... Kennedy's be damned.