How about this scenario:
A lot of a potential solar installation is paid for by 'others'. However, to maximize your 'gain' from these 'others', you need to increase your electric load. So, you add heat pumps and drive an electric car, again, subsidized by 'others'. I can't help but wonder if this shift in energy usage to electric will ultimately result in more generating capacity. Never-mind, whether the the ultimate results will be so fantastic that 'others' should pay for it. Government wasn't paying for the shift from water to coal in Jarven's day.
I hear you, but I think the devil is in the details.
Those 'others' are not just US taxpayers by a long shot. If the price of panels has fallen 80% in the last five years (with most of the US installs happening in the last 2-3 years), the Fed rebate has fallen proportionally per watt. Who paid for the 80% decrease...China and Germany. China propped up its panel manufacturers in a bid to control global production, but had to pay in serious resources to seize that market. Germany paid for much/most of its solar before the price collapse (with subsidies 5-10x more generous than those in the US today), paying China for its early panel output, and funding their producers' learning curve (which resulted in the 80% price decline).
The Feds in the US could have done something similar to land that PV manufacturing here instead of China, but they would have had to put up at least 10x the cash compared to what they have put in to date (roughly what China and Germany together put in). In other words, early adopters do pay, and the US is a late adopter.
As for using the elec, well, if the HP and EV displace oil, then that helps US balance of trade, national security, and reduces military costs (at least some of which exist to secure oil access, even today with the US making 50% of its own crude). What are the costs to the feds per barrel of imported oil? Coal plant emissions do result in health impacts in the US. Did the Fed's (cheap, recent) rebate on PV panels help the economy and Fed budget (lower Medicare costs, lower military expenditure, lower economic stimulus cost needed) net?
Many/most analysts, like the National Academy of Science and major investment banks like Citi and UBS say 'yes'. The current total costs of PV are paid back to society and then some. If you exclude health gains, its close. If you include them its a big win. And a lot of the health costs land on Medicare....b/c most of the coal emissions are hitting poor folks.
As for generation: yup, until more grid storage is fielded, a minute additional amount of reserve capacity will need to be kept around 24/7 to back up solar. After the nat gas gen building spree in the 90s, there is already plenty of appropriate over-capacity in many markets. Since PV runs full out on max demand periods, hot summer afternoons, it actually reduces annual peak demand....the main driver of new plant construction. This has been shown in many markets already. Solar reduces peak demand and demand growth of non-solar elec.
The problem with solar is that the those peak demand plants charge $$$ rates, and many utilities profit from that part of the annual cycle...and those utilities are getting hurt by solar.