All I think about is the cost to burn pellets compared to oil, and the extra work needed to take care of the pellet stove. Pellets need to stay much cheaper than oil to make it worth burning them, otherwise the pellet industry will implode from consumer backlash.
Pellets are very much going to become more like oil. World demand will have more to do with setting the price than what the different parts of the US will pay. Higher prices for crude because of world demand (expecially in China/India and Europe) will certainly have there effect on what you will pay for pellets. The biggest competition for fiber is the pulp industry (for paper) and I think it is safe to say that 2011 will probably see a slight up tick in pricing. World demand for paper is growing. Coal is used to generate electricity in most parts of the world (coal is also on the rise) (nuclear is gaining, just not in the US), and the utilities are starting to use more chips/pellets to off set some of the negative effects of burning coal. The US will also do this someday and that will have huge effects on the pellet markets here. Of course the higher that oil goes, the more expensive it is to get product to market and that will effect pricing.
Personally, I don't understand the big boxes pricing right now, but it won't last too much longer......they will be out of the pellet business till fall again very soon. Very few if any really stock any past spring, and most of the stores now are just cleaning up the remaining orders they still have on the books, then that's it till fall. With the slow down in the economy, there has been an excessive amount of pellets on the home heating side of the market these last two seasons, but I think you will see that start to decrease this year. You have seen some evidence of that already in some parts of NE....Barefoot being a good example.
Currently pellets are considerably cheaper than oil and they are selling very well....as they should....it's been frigin cold in the mid-west and east, since around Xmas and its safe to say, most of you are using more pellets at this point in winter than in years past and since it looks like it will stay cold for awhile longer, a lot of you need to replace stock ... Not everyone, but a lot of you will.
There might be some deals to be had this spring, but if the economy picks up any and the world demand keeps up the pace they are currently on, I would not be surprised to see pellets on average $10-20 higher come fall than where they are right now....if oil does go to $150 again, then they will certainly be higher than that. That would be an easy call. Going lower from here will be tough...the boxes will be sold out shortly (some already are) and the better brands have really been selling well all the way thru this winter....so if you see a deal, you may want to jump on it....but being a producer, some of you might take whatever I say with a grain of salt anyways......stay warm.....