Again, I am happy you have finalized your design and are ready to pull the trigger. As so often happens, where a person ends up is rather different from where they start out. I do that myself.
It seems that you started out being very satisfied with your previous 4 ton unit, comfortable, affordable, green. Does not need aux regularly, etc. That lasted for 20 years (and of course the loop is still aok).
Your first question to the board earlier in the year was whether if you downsized to 3 tons, would you use a lot of aux, b/c you wouldn't want that. You didn't have a lot of hard data to go on, but is sounded like yes, you would. Maybe a couple hundred bucks worth per year, not the end of the world, but there it was. You have a report full of numbers in front of you, that we can't see, and keep quoting numbers from it that do not appear to be mutually consistent. Most of the numbers you have quoted make it sound like your balance point on the 3 ton is going to be somewhere in the 20s, rather than somewhere in the single digits or low teens, like the old unit. Based on the BTU numbers you quoted, that is just the sort of difference in balance point one would expect from downsizing that much, and that we estimated earlier in the year.
But its cool, we still just think the smaller unit is going to cost a couple hundred dollars a year in extra aux. The only thing that has changed is how much you care about that much aux, now not very much. I think that is reasonable....maybe you were worried it would be really expensive, and when the pro projections come in a couple hundred dollars, it matters not.
Now you tell us that you are more worried about summer dehumidification, operating noise and avoiding start/stops (despite the previous 4 ton somehow being ok for 20 years), so you are going for the 3 or 3.5 ton. Ok. Done.
The second question was whether you should get another DSH. You said that you were never really satisfied with the one you got before, AND that you two needed very little hot water. We pointed out that for the same money you could get a v nice HPWH that will be more efficient, simpler and more compact (than two tanks) and work better than a 1 tank DSH system. Or for less money you could get a cheaper HPWH (that will likely last the 5 years you are in the house). Or for even less money, you could just run with the existing elec tank and no DSH, and the upcharge on your annual bill might be $100-150/year.
You heard all that, and then decided that you are getting a new DSH. I assume that some unknown reason came up that made the DSH more attractive. Ok, Got it. Done.
I DO like to argue, but
we aren't arguing. You asked if a smaller geo would call more aux, and how much it would cost. The answer is yes, and the amount is prob a couple hundred bucks a year. You asked if there were better options than the DSH, that might be cheaper, more efficient, or both. Again the answer is yes, you could save $1k on install and get a more eff DHW system, or save $2k and have a system that costs $150 a year more.
You asked a couple questions to the board, got some answers, and then you and your pro installer discussed all the details and decided to get the smaller geo and DSH. Sounds like your installer did a good job of walking you through the decision process (something we can't do), allayed some initial concerns you had (as expressed here), gave you some various operating cost and install cost estimates that were acceptable to you, and you picked what you wanted.