Hum, I don't recall discussing this last year, but I am sure I was considering a voluntary replacement that far back. The not too expensive, $450, repair last December and the news a new compressor would not be an option got me more serious on the replacement subject.
I was thinking of these threads...
https://www.hearth.com/talk/threads/i-am-thinking-about-replacing-my-20-yo-waterfurnace.124456/
https://www.hearth.com/talk/threads...ier-at-compressor-out-time-to-replace.119434/
To wrap it up, the downsizing calc is doable IF you knew or otherwise estimated a balance point for the existing system, not otherwise. If you really think the aux comes on very rarely, then the existing unit IS oversized from an economic point of view (mainly meaning the loop cost more than it had to 20 years ago). With the 4-ton loop as a sunk cost, however, it seems the marginal cost of a new 4-ton is small. Downsizing will not be likely to increase your (small) elec bill more than 10-20%. And the smaller unit will like the bigger loop, re loop temps.
The next owner can/will improve the insulation and airsealing of the house, IF he/she cares about the heating bill, and the balance point will drop back down to eliminate aux. Not your job on a 5 year horizon. If you went 4 ton single speed, when the next guy airseals and insulates (hypothetically) the new unit gets even more oversized. E.g. based on BTU loads I should have gotten a >5-ton ASHP when I installed 6 years ago, and I ran a lot of aux while I improved my house envelope. Now my 4-ton is perfectly sized for heating.
That said, I agree that you DO want two-speed for comfort and dehumidification...and heating in stage 1 is prob nice and quiet....has good balance too, etc. I think comfort, summer and winter, should drive the final decision and don't worry about downsizing a bit.
Re the DSH....I am no expert, but I think it is a complex, expensive white elephant. I would listen to sloeffle that a 1-tank solution will not be happy....your effective HW 'capacity' will be much less than 1/2 the tank volume. You and the DW might 'get by', but the next family with kids will curse the lousy hot water when they want 5x as much DHW as you do. Going to 2 tanks is both expensive, takes up a lot of space and provides more points of failure. And then at the end of the day, its not efficient. DSH can't lift to high temps efficiently by itself, and using an element to 'finish' heating the water seems wasteful.
In the 1990s, 'free hot water' must've sounded great. Guess what...when I switched from oil DHW to my HPWH, my annual elec bill actually
fell.
Scrapping my boiler saved me a ton of AC, and I eliminated a dehumidifier....so even with 2 teens I still have 'free' hot water. HPWHs are the wave of the future, in a couple years all elec units bigger than 50 gal will be required by existing law to be HPWHs (like the light bulb ban). From an engineering POV, get a system designed (with a different refrigerant) to efficiently heat DHW, rather than get a complex kludge that tries to do it with a system optimized for other HVAC purposes...and then dump the whole thing on the next owner.