I do think looking to the future wood heat will be less relied on. Tax incentives for energy efficiency improvements and heatpumps will reduce the amount of wood burned. Building codes hopefully will reduced heating loads considerably so that just a heatpump is needed and wood can just be supplemental.
But the reality is a majority of house housing stock is over 50 years old and in poor shape from an insulation and air sealing point of view. And many owners won’t see the ROI of efficiency upgrades as worth the up front cost.
New stoves are clean. And wood is renewable, but I don’t see burning wood as carbon neutral. Sure all the wood I burn would have rotted or been turned into mulch or compost but I bet I’m releasing the CO2 at a much faster rate than natural decay would have and creating more particulate pollution.
National Average electricity rates are predicted to remain nearly constant over the 20-30 years. ( Im pretty sure mine will go up 20-30% in the next 5 years. ) Think about that it’s not going to keep price with average inflation…. Electricity is going to get cheaper ( inflation adjusted)! Wood, saws, stoves those will all certainly keep up or outpace inflation. So cost effectiveness of wood will have some peak VS electricity. Some it really cold places heatpumps might not make cents
but on average I do think wood heat will cost more in the future.