EV developments

[woodgeek]

While your observations may be correct (I don't know and don't have the expertise of what any company should be doing...), I wonder what qualifies them as an incumbent company *now* rather than any of the last, say 80 years (when they were at least 30-40 years old already, and when innovations surely happened).

You keep bashing anybody but fully EV companies for their commercial decisions - but if you know so much better than these people, I wonder why they have not hired you to lead them.

Sure CEOs and companies make mistakes, and they may very well have in the way you point out (again, I can't say). But the mistakes you point out seem to all be located in "legacy companies" - and to me, having seen many strong advocates for a certain issue suffer from this - this strongly points that an introspection of confirmation bias might be useful.

Fair enough. I am not in the business, I just listen to what the different companies are saying, and look at what they are doing/shipping, and notice patterns.

I have never had any interest in buying a Tesla, not held any of the stock, and called them out on a lot of BS over the years (like giving their IP away... a huge PR stunt when their IP was worthless). But they said they would release a few models, and scale production, and that they would sell them and make a profit doing so. And except for some delays with production scaling (of order 6 mos), they did all of those things. While automobile market analysts and media folks were saying that they couldn't do all those things.

That said, Tesla's FSD has been an overpriced and overpromised fiasco. No excuse for that, its just snake oil. And their MSRP is always higher than predicted.

Rivian ships quite a few trucks that I see around, that are expensive. As a startup, I suppose they must be making some profit, or have convinced investors they will soon. But there is chatter about them running out of cash before scaling the R2. We will see.

BYD I know a lot less about... but they seem to sell a competitive product against Tesla in China, with an unknown amount of financing help from the CCP. And ofc they are a kinda legacy... bc they sell ICE cars too.

In contrast, all these other car companies (by definition legacies) have claimed for years that they too would start making EVs at scale, at affordable prices and would make a profit. And all the analysts agreed, and hailed this or that upcoming product as a 'Tesla killer', and predicted that the grownups with car building experience would breeze past Tesla and outcompete them in short order.

And VW has made BEVs at scale, that are serviceable and popular. And they don't talk about profit so much. Smaller makes like BWM also make quite a few EVs (as a percentage), and they sell at a nice price point. So, they seem to be doing OK, while their profits doing so are unknown.

And GM and Ford have made huge promises in BEV land for the last several years, and apparently lost their shirt on the ones they sold (Ford) at a modest scale or just shipped a puny amount of vehicles (GM).

What happened? I dunno. Maybe they didn't figure out production costs or plan ahead properly for the falling price of batteries? Just guessing?

I was a big fan of legacy EVs, having bought 3 of them with my own money and loving them. But folks told me that they were compliance cars and the companies weren't actually into making EVs at scale.... and I scoffed. In the last couple years of Ford's and GM's disappointing output... I am now a believer that they are all about PR and telling investors what they want to hear, more than shipping BEVs.

I honestly think/hope that Ford and GM will figure it out (maybe with a govt bailout or two), when batteries get cheap enough, and they start to just build boxes and slap other folks batteries in them.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

I suppose one of the things that is possible with EVs is the rethinking of what makes a car or truck. I think that’s what Tesla tried to do with their truckish thing.

Unfortunately, form follows function and truck makers have figured out what a truck needs to be slowly over time, with incremental improvements.

Tesla did a decent job, but what they made will not work for everyone.

I am curious what they could come up with for specific niches, say urban commute. The average car is a compromise of many different things. Could they design a low cost vehicle made for commuting that never goes over 45mph? Since it’s on pavement, the suspension might not need full travel. You wouldn’t need a huge battery if you stay at slow speeds and don’t drive far. More could be spent on the interior.

It’d be fun to see what they could come up with.

 

[hearthon]

Tesla said a while ago they want to come out with a 25k car with lower range. If that ever happens that'll change the world. Alot of people I feel want a ev but they cost a lot at the moment and also the infrastructure isn't quite there yet.

 

[woodgeek]

Tesla said a while ago they want to come out with a 25k car with lower range. If that ever happens that'll change the world. Alot of people I feel want a ev but they cost a lot at the moment and also the infrastructure isn't quite there yet.

The number of new EVs in the US jumped a factor of 3 in 2022-23. And most of those EVs will be available used for $20-25k when their three years old, or 2025-6, with a $4k govt rebate off that.

Its still early days.

 

[walhondingnashua]

Tesla said a while ago they want to come out with a 25k car with lower range. If that ever happens that'll change the world. Alot of people I feel want a ev but they cost a lot at the moment and also the infrastructure isn't quite there yet.

As I have said in other posts, I feel this is really where the EV boom will start. I like the idea of making fleet vehicles (like the Ford Lightning was originally intended for), but up front costs are hard for a small to average size company.
Make the next Cavalier or Focus electric, and you've got it going JMO

 

[EbS-P]

As I have said in other posts, I feel this is really where the EV boom will start. I like the idea of making fleet vehicles (like the Ford Lightning was originally intended for), but up front costs are hard for a small to average size company.
Make the next Cavalier or Focus electric, and you've got it going JMO

But many don’t want that size car. There is a reason they quit making them. But I agree a good 200 mile Tesla will sell really well at $25k. I do wonder once they get to that price point how many buyers will benefit from the non refundable tax credit.

 

[walhondingnashua]

But many don’t want that size car. There is a reason they quit making them. But I agree a good 200 mile Tesla will sell really well at $25k. I do wonder once they get to that price point how many buyers will benefit from the non refundable tax credit.

Good point. I will rephrase my statement then...
Make an electric commuter vehicle of some kind that works well for city/suburban people.
I do feel one of the reasons they stopped making smaller vehicles was due to the increase in MPGs for larger vehicles after 2008. The Dakota, Colorado (S10) and Ranger went to the way side because you could own a 4 door full size that fro 18-20 mpg. With current fuel costs and the cost to buy a vehicle being so high right now, its the perfect time to strike for an automaker.

 

[stoveliker]

Unfortunately fuel costs are too unstable on the timescale of car development.
I.e. it would need to stay high (this high, but likely even higher) for 5-10 years for the development of a new small set of cars to be finished, beyond the "baby disease" stage, and selling enough to become established before gas prices would fluctuate down again. Imho.

We've seen the US "favor" smaller cars before when gas prices were high, but as soon as they dropped down, that all went away.

(I bought a very small car to carry my single behind to my work 18 miles away every day in TN - as well as drop off 1 kid at school every day. a 41(.5) mpg Mazda 2 pure ICE. My philosophy was that I did not need to lug around all that steel around all that empty space for a larger car when if I needed a larger car I could swap for a day with my wife. - Noting that the larger car was a Toyota Corolla ;P I've moved many a door, 2x4x10 or 12 ft etc. with my Mazda 2 with the backseat and passenger seat flattened, though. It's always been fun to get my orange box store cart with large stuff on the parking lot, walk to my car, see folks stop and smile to watch how this is going to happen, and then to drive away as if nothing strange happened after loading all my stuff - with a grin on my face and a wave to the onlookers! )

 

[walhondingnashua]

Unfortunately fuel costs are too unstable on the timescale of car development.
I.e. it would need to stay high (this high, but likely even higher) for 5-10 years for the development of a new small set of cars to be finished, beyond the "baby disease" stage, and selling enough to become established before gas prices would fluctuate down again. Imho.

We've seen the US "favor" smaller cars before when gas prices were high, but as soon as they dropped down, that all went away.

(I bought a very small car to carry my single behind to my work 18 miles away every day in TN - as well as drop off 1 kid at school every day. a 41(.5) mpg Mazda 2 pure ICE. My philosophy was that I did not need to lug around all that steel around all that empty space for a larger car when if I needed a larger car I could swap for a day with my wife. - Noting that the larger car was a Toyota Corolla ;P I've moved many a door, 2x4x10 or 12 ft etc. with my Mazda 2 with the backseat and passenger seat flattened, though. It's always been fun to get my orange box store cart with large stuff on the parking lot, walk to my car, see folks stop and smile to watch how this is going to happen, and then to drive away as if nothing strange happened after loading all my stuff - with a grin on my face and a wave to the onlookers! )

Ok then, lets put the 2 ideas together...
Make a Mazda 2, Honda Ridgeline, Subaru Outback, Toyota Rav 4 sized vehicle that is EV and reasonably priced...

 

[EbS-P]

Good point. I will rephrase my statement then...
Make an electric commuter vehicle of some kind that works well for city/suburban people.
I do feel one of the reasons they stopped making smaller vehicles was due to the increase in MPGs for larger vehicles after 2008. The Dakota, Colorado (S10) and Ranger went to the way side because you could own a 4 door full size that fro 18-20 mpg. With current fuel costs and the cost to buy a vehicle being so high right now, it’s the perfect time to strike for an automaker.

Ok then, lets put the 2 ideas together...
Make a Mazda 2, Honda Ridgeline, Subaru Outback, Toyota Rav 4 sized vehicle that is EV and reasonably priced...

Reasonable is judged by the wallet of the buyer. Honestly what would a stripped down 3 or Y cost. Take out all the cameras and driving computers. Manual seats. Smaller wheels. Cheaper smaller motor. Cut the battery size down to 200 miles range. Make a 2 seat cargo version…. It would be hard to pull $5k of costs out of the 3/Y but maybe not impossible.

Tesla is still trying to be a luxury brand. Waiting 4 weeks for a service appointment is anything but luxury service.

 

[begreen]

But many don’t want that size car. There is a reason they quit making them. But I agree a good 200 mile Tesla will sell really well at $25k. I do wonder once they get to that price point how many buyers will benefit from the non refundable tax credit.

I disagree. It's not so much popularity as what was pushed by heavy advertising and market control. The big 3 make a lot more money on their trucks and SUVs. During the early 2000s they even had major politicians pimping big cars as "safer".

 

[EatenByLimestone]

Given physics, I’d much rather be in a pickup than a Fiat if the 2 were to head on collide.

 

[begreen]

Given physics, I’d much rather be in a pickup than a Fiat if the 2 were to head on collide.

That is the selling point but it also illustrates the extremes. Many modern cars like our Volt are very safe vehicles in a collision. That said, I have owned a full-sized pickup and it was a pain in the butt to drive in the city, poor on gas, and ridiculous to take into town just for groceries. My wife refused to drive it.

Considering I grew up without seatbelts and loved riding in the back of a pickup, I'll take my chances in a smaller vehicle.

 

[stoveliker]

A big pick up truck brings a lot more energy into the accident that needs to be dissipated - not only in the other object (think tree...).
It's not the size, it's the strength of the car that matters for safety. And that part is implicitly covered in the safety test ratings

 

[EatenByLimestone]

That is the selling point but it also illustrates the extremes. Many modern cars like our Volt are very safe vehicles in a collision. That said, I have owned a full-sized pickup and it was a pain in the butt to drive in the city, poor on gas, and ridiculous to take into town just for groceries. My wife refused to drive it.

Considering I grew up without seatbelts and loved riding in the back of a pickup, I'll take my chances in a smaller vehicle.

I remember surfing in back of pickups and rolling around in the back of station wagons. A ton of fun, but looking back, well, lol…

 

[EatenByLimestone]

A big pick up truck brings a lot more energy into the accident that needs to be dissipated - not only in the other object (think tree...).
It's not the size, it's the strength of the car that matters for safety. And that part is implicitly covered in the safety test ratings

Yeah, trees and brick walls don’t move. Bumper height and mass do have their own qualities in an auto accident though.

Drive by the firehouse or police station and you’ll see what the first responders drive.

 

[stoveliker]

Yeah, trees and brick walls don’t move. Bumper height and mass do have their own qualities in an auto accident though.

Drive by the firehouse or police station and you’ll see what the first responders drive.

Those people are not necessarily less affected by incorrect arguments from marketing...

Bumper height is a valid issue. The utility of mass depends on which car is stronger. If you bring a lot of mass but the opposing car is built stronger, it is going to be your car that will absorb a laeger fraction of the total energy in the collision - energy of which you brought more to the event with a heavier car, to your own detriment.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

That is all well and good until my larger vehicle makes the smaller one go from a forward speed of 39 miles an hour to going back wards as my truck is slowed down. I’m sure the other driver’s neck will be comforted that the vehicle is still in roughly the same original shape it started out in.

 

[stoveliker]

True. That's what seatbelts are for, only indeed that does not protect ones neck from whiplash.
Yet that's better than the cases for where the fire and police first aid folks have to come and help - as those have to do with the energy absorbed by a car which tends to impact ones lower extremities.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

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[begreen]

True. That's what seatbelts are for, only indeed that does not protect ones neck from whiplash.
Yet that's better than the cases for where the fire and police first aid folks have to come and help - as those have to do with the energy absorbed by a car which tends to impact ones lower extremities.

Case in point. Years ago I was rear-ended by an older Ford pickup truck while I was stopped in line waiting for a light to change. The driver was drunk. The police estimated that the impact speed was 25-30 mph. He never even braked. He hit the rear of our Camry wagon hard enough to lift it and shove the nose of the car under the Honda in front of me. The car's crumple zones worked. Although the tailgate was inopperably crushed, and the nose dented, I was able to drive away. I was very lucky to be in a modern car. The policeman was impressed on how the car protecte me. He said that most people in this situation used to be carried away on a stretcher.

The drunk backed up and ran from the scene, but not before his licence plate and vehicle were written down by several witnesses. He was later caught and prosecuted for hit and run with several prior DUI convictions.

 

[EbS-P]

Given physics, I’d much rather be in a pickup than a Fiat if the 2 were to head on collide.

Data says you should be driving a Sienna

Driver death rates by make and model

One way to compare the relative safety of vehicles is to look at driver death rates.

www.iihs.org

I thought I posted this earlier not sure where it went.

 

[begreen]

This new survey has to be making Detroit nervous.

AlixPartners 2024 International EV Consumer-Sentiment Survey

www.alixpartners.com

 

[woodgeek]

This new survey has to be making Detroit nervous.

AlixPartners 2024 International EV Consumer-Sentiment Survey

www.alixpartners.com

Makes sense. a LOT of anti-BEV press in the US (and a different flavor anti-EV news in the EU), has held interest in getting an EV flat. And projected sales growth for BEVs in 2024 might only increase 20% over 2023 in the US.

And the interest that is there is based on being offered vehicles that fit their use case (better in China and EU than the US, since the latter wants bigger vehicles and is more concerned about DCFC) and is super sensitive to price.

In the end, if you think prices of new BEVs will drop 10% per year for the next 7-10 years, then you should think the transition will be rapid and inevitable.

If for some reason you think EVs are and will remain more expensive than ICE cars forever, then you will think the transition will take a verrry long time, and/or only be driven by govt incentives and ultimately bans.

I feel like its the situation with HD TVs around 2010. Lots of folks had new HDTVs that were not that great, and cost $1000+, there wasn't that much HD content. Meanwhile, others were loving their old $$$ Sony Trinitrons and swearing that they had the best picture ever, and that they would keep watching them forever.

And then in 2020 I could buy a big 4k set for $300 at Walmart. Like everyone else.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

The big difference was, is we didn’t have 30 conversations a year on TV choices where people just couldn’t understand why people didn’t want to buy their favorite tv or why there were/weren’t 5 HDMI jacks for n the back of it when that other brand has them.

For the record, the only TV in my house is a ~30” Vizio we bought around 2005 for probably around $300.