Corona Virus

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My wife is supposed to fly to SLC Sunday.

We had Channel 7 news on this morning as we had breakfast (hot cocoa for Nan; Carnation Breakfast Essentials shake for me).

Nan asked, "should I stay or should I go?"

Right at that time, a booming "DON'T GO ANYWHERE" announcer voice was on the TV before they cut to commercial.
[Hearth.com] Corona Virus


A UConn professor, someone I went to school with (high school, college, and grad school, oddly enough), and I have plans to have lunch with our elderly graduate advisor in Needham, MA Saturday. He's 92. Going to ask them if we should postpone. Large retirement facility full of elderly folks probably doesn't want three strangers showing up for lunch.
 
Just saw this on a car web site I frequent. :)
 

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begreen said:
"If I go there will be trouble, an' if I stay it will be double"
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Going to need a lot more test kits.
Could be awhile before much of the public is satisfied everyone is not going to die. Until then stirring up more panic will just make things 10x worse. Panic at the top would be the most irresponsible thing right now,and we are seeing some of that at the state level. IMHO. Mixed feeling on our govt response , travel restrictions from china, good move, but what about Italy whats the holdup there.
 
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I don't think the vaccine will come in time unless CV-19 reoccurs annually There are multiple trials for a previously developed antiviral for Ebola https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-remdesivir-treat-covid-19-begins that has some promise. Its been proven not be harmful to humans previously but the question is does it impact CV-19. It does work on SARS in test tube. Antivirals along with instant test kits which are already developed in Korea means a major decrease in mortality as if someone tests positive or even exposed the doctor can give them a script for the antiviral. My deceased parents were in assisted living/skilled nursing care and they handed out Tamiflu like candy whenever the staff even suspected there was case of the flu in the building. This new drug if it tests out supposedly requires 5 days of IV administered doses so not as convenient as Tamiflu but its still a potential game changer. Folks with shares in Gilead Pharmaceuticals are definitely hoping the trials work out ;)

The usual issue with antivirals is they just delay the onset of more severe symptoms while the body cranks up an immune response. If the patient has an under or over active immune system they may not help.
 
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peakbagger said:
Antivirals along with instant test kits which are already developed in Korea means a major decrease in mortality as if someone tests positive or even exposed the doctor can give them a script for the antiviral. .
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Some test kits coming from Singapore. This whole thing just started in December so thats a factor in test kits and vaccines.
 
peakbagger said:
I don't think the vaccine will come in time unless CV-19 reoccurs annually There are multiple trials for a previously developed antiviral for Ebola https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-remdesivir-treat-covid-19-begins that has some promise. Its been proven not be harmful to humans previously but the question is does it impact CV-19. It does work on SARS in test tube. Antivirals along with instant test kits which are already developed in Korea means a major decrease in mortality as if someone tests positive or even exposed the doctor can give them a script for the antiviral. My deceased parents were in assisted living/skilled nursing care and they handed out Tamiflu like candy whenever the staff even suspected there was case of the flu in the building. This new drug if it tests out supposedly requires 5 days of IV administered doses so not as convenient as Tamiflu but its still a potential game changer. Folks with shares in Gilead Pharmaceuticals are definitely hoping the trials work out ;)

The usual issue with antivirals is they just delay the onset of more severe symptoms while the body cranks up an immune response. If the patient has an under or over active immune system they may not help.
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Definitely not fast. Scientists are wrestling with the moral dilemma of rushing a drug to market and unintended consequences.

I've read that there are 3 different paths working on the vaccine. These are more based on research on SARS and MERS. Two of the paths are based on delivering the protein that the virus creates (those knobs that stud it) in a vaccine form so that the body can develop antibodies. The third path is by developing antibodies to the virus in animals (or in vitrio) and then using those antibodies for the vaccine. This third path would likely only provide temporary immunity of 1-3 months, but that is better than nothing and could buy time.

The ebola medicine, Remdesivir, is a different approach, it is not a vaccine, but a last line of defense in treatment when the docs are losing the battle. It has succeeded in several cases in China and I think in the US, but am not sure if our docs are being allowed to use it off label.

The FDA is there to protect us, but in cases like this it can be too slow and cumbersome to relax regs on testing. This probably cost the Seattle region several weeks in early detection and containment. There has been an ongoing flu study since last fall conducted by the UW. They had thousands of swab tests for the flu. One doc thought it would be good to check for Covid-19 as well, but was told that was not allowed due to privacy regs set by the govt.. By late Feb. the doc saw what was happening in China and went ahead with the testing taking full responsibility. She found a case, in a teenager with no travel to an affected area, which meant it was in the wild and community spread. Her results freaked out officials, shut down the kid's school and got her a scolding, but if she had been listened to and started early we could have averted spread. Now they expect there are hundreds if not thousands of cases in the wild locally. Basic math says that within a week or two we will be in the many tens of thousands if not higher.
 
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begreen said:
She found a case, in a teenager with no travel to an affected area, which meant it was in the wild and community spread. Her results freaked out officials, shut down the kid's school and got her a scolding, but if she had been listened to and started early we could have averted spread. Now they expect there are hundreds if not thousands of cases in the wild locally. Basic math says that within a week or two we will be in the many tens of thousands if not higher.
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Looks like everyone has to be tested, is there that many test kits available? Probably not.
 
Or just assume we all are infected.
 
Seasoned Oak said:
Looks like everyone has to be tested, is there that many test kits available? Probably not.
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Not unless the FDA and CDC speed up letting commercial labs join the testing effort. They want to be cautious which is understandable, but time is of the essence here.
 
Highbeam said:
Or just assume we all are infected.
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That would almost be as bad as not knowing. Testing is critical for tracking the spread and acting appropriately instead of randomly. With an aggressive response, this disease can be shut down. Chinese cases are just a trickle now compared to a month ago.
 
begreen said:
. Chinese cases are just a trickle now compared to a month ago.
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If you can believe anything coming out of china. Did they ever let CDC in?
 
Seasoned Oak said:
If you can believe anything coming out of china. Did they ever let CDC in?
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WHO has been there and released an extensive report about a week ago.
 
begreen said:
WHO has been there and released an extensive report about a week ago.
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Well thats some encouraging news. You would think the more people who have it, the harder it would be to contain it.
 
Seasoned Oak said:
Well thats some encouraging news. You would think the more people who have it, the harder it would be to contain it.
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Difference being extreme intervention. Something that is unlikely to happen here. For those that like to do the math, here are some evolving scenarios.
www.statnews.com

What does the coronavirus mean for the U.S. health care system? Some simple math offers alarming answers

At a 10% hospitalization rate, all hospital beds in the U.S. will be filled by about May 10. As #Covid19 cases saturate nearly every state and county, health care workers would burn through the national stockpile of N95 masks in two days.
www.statnews.com www.statnews.com
 
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begreen said:
Difference being extreme intervention. Something that is unlikely to happen here. For those that like to do the math, here are some evolving scenarios.
www.statnews.com

What does the coronavirus mean for the U.S. health care system? Some simple math offers alarming answers

At a 10% hospitalization rate, all hospital beds in the U.S. will be filled by about May 10. As #Covid19 cases saturate nearly every state and county, health care workers would burn through the national stockpile of N95 masks in two days.
www.statnews.com www.statnews.com
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"Unwarranted panic does no one any good, but neither does ill-informed complacency. "
Taken from the article, this is what is going to be very hard to get right. There is no middle ground with this as everyones idea of each of these is different . Panic is already here and has the potential to make this whole situation become much worse than it already is. The most encouraging takeaway was that most cases can be managed at home.
 
Seasoned Oak said:
The most encouraging takeaway was that most cases can be managed at home.
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Yes, and 80% will be ok afterward. It's us geezers this bugger is after.

Got news about an hour ago that this has started here in our small town. The first case just reported and confirmed. He was commuting in with coworkers in a vanpool. That whole department, and all the vanpool members are now in quarantine.
 
Wow travel from Europe just got shut down for 30 days ,didnt see that coming so soon. Should have shut down flights out of italy weeks ago. Also im sure this will be worse in 30 days not better.
 
I think the main plan is simple, if your feeling sick , don't go anywhere, self isolate. If you start feeling worse, call an ambulance or get to the hospital. If your over 60 or have health issues, don't fool around for very long if you feel you worse. Get to the hospital quick.

This virus is coming strong to North America.
Don't panic, they know how to handle it. China is proving that.
They just suspended all games in the NBA as a player just tested positive.
 
williamtell said:
Anyone who has paid any attention to how this administration has joyfully gutted public health shouldn't be surprised.
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Be aware there is help for those suffering from TDS . Consult your local heath provider. :p
 
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Tom hanks and wife now tested positive in Australia. I wasnt aware it was raging thru there.
 
begreen said:
Yes, and 80% will be ok afterward. It's us geezers this bugger is after.
Got news about an hour ago that this has started here in our small town.
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Time to hunker down BG. Im set up to get most on my supplies and a good portion of my groceries by mail from Sams club at no shipping cost. Its a 60 mile drive one way anyway so ill save a lot of gas and time and wont have to risk exposure .
 
I'm hoping this data is skewed but Italy is showing a 44% death rate for closed cases thus far.

www.worldometers.info

Italy COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Italy Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
 
ABMax24 said:
I'm hoping this data is skewed but Italy is showing a 44% death rate for closed cases thus far.

www.worldometers.info

Italy COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Italy Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
Click to expand...
The data is skewed and will continue to be until the storm passes. That's because the denominator is changing constantly. with most numbers coming from the front line. It is not yet including the many that are staying at home, sick and toughing it out.

Here is the most important part. If people do not go out unnecessarily to events, bars, restaurants, movies and large public gatherings then the contact ratio drops and hospital systems can "just barely" keep up with incoming cases. If people ignore warning and go out regardless, then the virus infections will continue to double at least once every 6 days. That leads to complete medical system overload, even in the best equipped communities. In Italy they are having to make the hard choices to refuse beds to those least likely to survive. There are only so many beds and ventilators in the system.
 
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