One issue I see being played out around here is farmers, instead of investing the profits from 7 buck corn, invested in new equipment and payment books. The input costs aren't dropping, especially for N. and seed. Farners with the 'latest and greatest' are going to be in for a rude awakening, the payment books don't drop with the corn price....
Secondly, with the roll in of Tier 4 final emissions mandates, farmers are very wary of tractors (or any mechanized equipment with a blue fuel cap and very well should be. If a piece of equipment goes down in the field, gone are the days of 'fixing' it with a wrench and hammer. It has to be hooked into a computer to just diagnose the issue. Probably why JD and all the other manufacturers are predicting at least a 25% downturn in equipment sales. Equipment prices are stupid in my view. I bought a new NH round bailer last fall (computerized in as much as manually controlled machines are antiques). 25 grand for a bailer that I paid 12 grand for, 10 years ago and 12 grand was a bit much, but I can't build one so it is, what it is.
I considered a new Tier 4 tractor for about a minute but I know what the Tier 4 mandates have done to on road engines and the issues involved. For a Cummins ISXC engine, just cleaning the urea injection unit costs over$1000.00 and cannot be done in the field. In the futiure, you'll see a marked movement away from conventional diesel fueled engines and gaining popularity toward NG engines because a 4 stroke 'diesel' running on NG eliminates 95% of the mandates emissions hardware, problem is, the infrastructure has to catch up th real world application and all the 'hoopla' that mauufacturers are spewing about Tier 4 engines being more fuel efficient, is just that, phooey. Tier 4 engines are less efficient and more (much more) complex, plus the engine life is much less. due to increased heat. You cannot get an extended warranty on a Tier 4 engine, manufacturers know they won't last.
So, while 3-4 buck corn is good for corn burners, it's bad for farmers....and especially bad for e-corn growers, but thats another subject entirely.
Far as pellet prices, it's a typical business model, that is, sell for what the market will bear. Typical consumer pricing is usually a couple hundred percent over cost to produce and that applies to everything, not just pellets. Pellet manufacture is very mechanical and fuel costly even though the 'raw materials' are basically worthless. Using my 'couple hundred percent' yardstick, pellet manufacturing cost is most likely around 50 cents a bag, factoring in everything except transportation. Everything else is profit and always remember that everytime a bag changes hands, the price of admission increases, everyone has to have a slice of the pie, whereas corn only changes hands one, maybe 2 times and corn isn't a manufactured product, it's grown. Sure, dryer gas costs and transportation costs are factored in, but Istill prefer corn over wood fibers but not everyone can roast corn.
When I bought this stove, my prime directive was purchasing a stove that was a flexible fuel unit so I could burn a number of fuels, depending on price and availability, something that I'm comfortable I did. Why lock yourself into a single fuel unit, variety is what makes a biofuel stove a good investment...
I believe you'll see a resurgence in corn burning, so long as the fuel stays at a reasonable price and watching the market like I do, I'd say thats a safe bet.
Obviously, corn isn't readily available in the north east, but, corn can be packaged just like wood pellets, palletized and sold. Some enterprising individual or company will capitalize on that (for areas that corn availability is poor), I'm confident of that as well. Might just be me........
If pellets increase in price, it will raise the break point of field corn as well. At present, IMO, corn below $4.00/bu/52% or better TW is very competitive with pro9cessed wood pellets, anywhere.