Aurora tonight?

[begreen]

Hindsight and data give us better perspective on this last event. Although the strongest in 20 yrs, it was far from the strongest the earth has experienced. The event clocked in at -412 nT. "The most powerful recorded geomagnetic storms in history, the Carrington Event of 1859 and the New York Railroad Storm of 1921, both registered at around –900 nT, although the former was potentially as high as –1,750 nT." Some airlines did make corrections, avoiding polar routes to reduce exposure to crews and passengers.

The Strongest Solar Storm in 20 Years Was Mostly Harmless, but We May Not Be So Lucky Next Time

Years of careful planning helped safeguard against last weekend’s severe space weather, but we still don’t know how we’d cope with a monster event

www.scientificamerican.com

 

[stoveliker]

Yes, always good to put things in perspective in hindsight (and noting that forecast is a prediction, not a fact).

Regarding (air plane, not space) flight radiation exposure:

hps.org

Health Physics Society

hps.org

• According to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), radiation dose from solar flares can reach as high as 200 µSv h-1 for up to a few hours at commercial aircraft altitudes. This would give a radiation dose of up to 400–600 µSv h-1 during a two-to-three-hour solar flare. Although this is a higher radiation dose than is normally experienced, such solar flares are expected to occur only a few times during the 11-year solar cycle and the great majority of passengers simply won't be in the air when one occurs. Even for those passengers who are exposed to this level of radiation, the expected effects still are not significant—this level of radiation exposure is similar to receiving an x ray and is far less than what you get in a computerized tomography scan.

Of course this is some average number, and would likely have been higher for the above average intensity of the recent event(s).

 

[begreen]

In other words, we dodged the bullet this time. Forecasts helped systems managers prepare better on the ground and air.

 

[stoveliker]

Yes.

I read about the secrecy of how systems fared during this. Understandable (also given potential foreign attack on such systems in times of conflict), but given the fractionalized power system in this country, is there sufficient oversight into the resilience of these systems...?
Are there standards set by the government?

Electrical power is rather critical for society to keep functioning and while we can't protect against (solar) "bullets of any size", some standards in the capacity to withstand or recover from some say "1 in 100 year event", would be good.

Infrastructure is the achilles heel of this country, I think.
Too distributed and fractionalized to be a reliable nationwide system. Compartmentalization (localization) of risk is good as it does decrease systemic risk. Localization of responsibilities (and setting and implementation of standards) is not.

 

[peakbagger]

I have a good friend with a firm that does a lot of electrical substation work including putting in protection relays for imposed voltage, they weren't any busier in last two weeks than normal.

 

[begreen]

We are not over this active sunspot cycle. It peaks in 2025. The huge sunspot cluster AR 3664 just sent out the largest flare yet. Fortunately, this time it's pointed is away from earth's orbit.

Sun Erupts with Largest Flare of This Solar Cycle, but Auroras Unlikely to Follow

The same massive sunspot cluster that gave Earth multiple nights of stunning aurora displays has now produced the largest flare of the current solar cycle

www.scientificamerican.com

 

[stoveliker]

Yes, it's good that earth only occupies a small angular fraction of space when seen from the sun

 

[begreen]

Here is a pretty cool side effect of the recent solar storms. Next time, get out a compass while viewing.

The Solar Storm Was So Intense We Felt It Even at The Bottom of The Ocean

A solar storm that filled Earth's skies with shimmering curtains of light in May 2024 was so intense that its effects were felt, even at the bottom of the ocean.

www.sciencealert.com