2023 Severe Weather
- Thread starter thewoodlands
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Not much here either, but once the temps start dropping we'll start getting snow but hopefully not lake effect.
I see that Accu is talking about a Nor' Easter early next week with flooding rains, strong coastal winds and mountain snow mostly in New England.
It's a ways off but worth keeping track of.
It's a ways off but worth keeping track of.
good thing I finally cleaned my gutters!
If it hits, it’ll most likely be rain collecting in my basement, lol
If it hits, it’ll most likely be rain collecting in my basement, lol
Some of our gutters we cleaned (the wife holds the ladder) three times, once in the spring, summer and fall.
Today Accu has us getting a total of half an inch starting on Sunday night but that should change.
EbS-P
Minister of Fire
No clear solution yet. From my local NWS discussion
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Uncertainty is the key word for the weekend and start of next week. Southern stream becomes active later this week, leading to a complex low developing in the Gulf of Mexico. The 5h trough ends up cutoff over the northeastern GOMEX Sat night with the cutoff and the surface low moving across the Florida Peninsula Sun then turning northeast Sun night into Mon. Medium range guidance is all over the
place, with solutions ranging from the stacked low passing well west of the area (unlikely) to passing well off the Southeast coast.
Despite the range of solutions and high uncertainty there are
tendencies that can be used to focus on the most likely outcome. The amplified nature of the system would support slower solutions. The tenuous nature of the northern stream/southern stream connection points to the offshore solution as more likely. By nature a southern stream system would keep highs near to slightly above climo with
lows running well above climo.
In summary, the driest day appears to be Sat, although the coastal trough may bring some light rain Sat night as it moves onshore. Sun has the potential to be rather wet as does at least the first part of Mon. There is at least some chance rainfall lingers into Tue if the slowest and more offshore solutions verify.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Uncertainty is the key word for the weekend and start of next week. Southern stream becomes active later this week, leading to a complex low developing in the Gulf of Mexico. The 5h trough ends up cutoff over the northeastern GOMEX Sat night with the cutoff and the surface low moving across the Florida Peninsula Sun then turning northeast Sun night into Mon. Medium range guidance is all over the
place, with solutions ranging from the stacked low passing well west of the area (unlikely) to passing well off the Southeast coast.
Despite the range of solutions and high uncertainty there are
tendencies that can be used to focus on the most likely outcome. The amplified nature of the system would support slower solutions. The tenuous nature of the northern stream/southern stream connection points to the offshore solution as more likely. By nature a southern stream system would keep highs near to slightly above climo with
lows running well above climo.
In summary, the driest day appears to be Sat, although the coastal trough may bring some light rain Sat night as it moves onshore. Sun has the potential to be rather wet as does at least the first part of Mon. There is at least some chance rainfall lingers into Tue if the slowest and more offshore solutions verify.
EbS-P
Minister of Fire
Guidance is better. We’re are forecast to get 3 inches of rain. Lots of wind. 978 mb low. That tropical storm territory.
forecast.weather.gov
National Weather Service
Ashful
Minister of Fire
That's some good tree-uprooting weather, depending on current soil saturation conditions.Guidance is better. We’re are forecast to get 3 inches of rain. Lots of wind. 978 mb low. That tropical storm territory.
National Weather Service
EbS-P
Minister of Fire
Had 2 inches last Sunday but was dry before that. Rainfal totals are up to 3-4 inches. 41-51 mph gusts. The wide spread high wind events that get cute names tend to do a good job culling the weak trees for us. But this will probably bring some more down. Coastal flooding and beech erosion will happen.
I see Accu has us getting 2 inches of rain starting Sunday afternoon or night, how much are you in for?
EbS-P
Minister of Fire
EbS-P
Minister of Fire
It’s normalish for us. I just don’t want it all in two hours.
Accuweather says between 1.5 and 3”. I’m scheduled for a basement cleaning day so all is good. I’ll be down there much of the day, lol.
bogieb
Minister of Fire
Accuweather is not making any predictions for my area yet (or I'm not familiar enough with their site to find it). They are saying we are under a flood watch from late tonight into late Monday night. That would be because the ground is hard so the water will mainly just wash off. The river 4 blocks from me is still up from last week's rain, plus melting snow making its way down from the north country.
The local station is predicting 1-3" with some gusty winds up to 40 mph. My little section of the state is looking to be around 2". Draw a line from Concord to Keene and I am smack dab at the middle of that line.
![[Hearth.com] 2023 Severe Weather](https://www.hearth.com/talk/attachments/1702803038634-webp.320873/ "[Hearth.com] 2023 Severe Weather")
Maybe I'll finally get rid of the last of the snow from a couple of weeks ago - even the 2" of rain last week didn't get rid of it all. Admittedly, there isn't much left and what is there is in shaded areas, but it gives an indication of how cold the ground has stayed despite a couple of days in the mid 40's and actually getting good sun the last 2 days.
The local station is predicting 1-3" with some gusty winds up to 40 mph. My little section of the state is looking to be around 2". Draw a line from Concord to Keene and I am smack dab at the middle of that line.
Maybe I'll finally get rid of the last of the snow from a couple of weeks ago - even the 2" of rain last week didn't get rid of it all. Admittedly, there isn't much left and what is there is in shaded areas, but it gives an indication of how cold the ground has stayed despite a couple of days in the mid 40's and actually getting good sun the last 2 days.
EbS-P
Minister of Fire
First rain band. Predicting rain for the next 20 hours. It’s been raining for the last hour and a half.
Map for KNCCOLLE5, UNC Wilmington WeatherSTEM, College Acres, NC, US
![[Hearth.com] 2023 Severe Weather](https://www.hearth.com/talk/attachments/1702814140932-webp.320874/ "[Hearth.com] 2023 Severe Weather")
View on the web https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=34.2,-77.9Download Weather Underground app - www.wunderground.com/download
Map for KNCCOLLE5, UNC Wilmington WeatherSTEM, College Acres, NC, US
Just a little breezy today, Accu has the rain starting here at 5 p.m. with a total of 0.69 of rain tonight and a total of just under 2 inches after it's all done.
The Brook should be running pretty high and fast after the rain stops.
The Brook should be running pretty high and fast after the rain stops.
EbS-P
Minister of Fire
Pour South Carolina. Radar accumulation in excess of 11 inches for some parts.
Not too bad here. Saw a car stalled out in a known low spot. I turned around. Not turning the Tesla into a boat.
Almost 3 inches here. Not quite over. Good forecast as it showed heaviest rain west of us. Which is what happened.
![[Hearth.com] 2023 Severe Weather](https://www.hearth.com/talk/data/attachments/320/320939-a722d30f6769478266e11980de65042b.jpg?hash=C6i19NEurZ "[Hearth.com] 2023 Severe Weather")
Not too bad here. Saw a car stalled out in a known low spot. I turned around. Not turning the Tesla into a boat.
Almost 3 inches here. Not quite over. Good forecast as it showed heaviest rain west of us. Which is what happened.
![[Hearth.com] 2023 Severe Weather](https://www.hearth.com/talk/data/attachments/320/320941-698218456558afe8840bb5fac646b283.jpg?hash=lNw0juN3cU "[Hearth.com] 2023 Severe Weather")
I just pulled the batteries out of my Unimog that happens to be a high water rescue vehicle today as I pull the insurance on it for the Winter and park it. It is good for 1.2 meters (about 4' of fording depth). The interior doors have little rubber flaps in them so when the water comes up above the floor boards it runs out the interior door panels and down through the bottom of the doors. The combustion air system is sealed with a snorkle up to the roof and everything potentially underwater is slightly pressurized so water doesnt get into any lubricated systems.
My area in northern NH is inland, the current forecast is several inches of rain, luckily there was not much of a snow pack but what there is of it will melt and rabidly drain across frozen ground to the local rivers, I expect more than few of them will be over flood crest tomorrow evening. The observatory on Mt Washington just south of my place (but 4800 feet higher than me) is expecting 100 MPH winds and if the storm lines up right they may go up to 140 MPH. Luckily, I am on the north side of the mountain with the storm coming up from the south so I will be sheltered a bit.
My area in northern NH is inland, the current forecast is several inches of rain, luckily there was not much of a snow pack but what there is of it will melt and rabidly drain across frozen ground to the local rivers, I expect more than few of them will be over flood crest tomorrow evening. The observatory on Mt Washington just south of my place (but 4800 feet higher than me) is expecting 100 MPH winds and if the storm lines up right they may go up to 140 MPH. Luckily, I am on the north side of the mountain with the storm coming up from the south so I will be sheltered a bit.
Well, basement is wet. The sup pup really started picking up it’s on/off cycle around 4 this morning. I peeked down stairs and it was dry. Just looked down again and there’s water down there.
It was bound to happen.
It was bound to happen.
Ashful
Minister of Fire
Schools are closed or on 2-hour delay here, this morning, which was a huge surprise given it's almost 60F outside. But then we checked the local weather map and noticed it's completely plastered in flood warnings and watches (mostly warnings). I guess we had more rain than we had realized!
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