Will there be a huge pellet shortage this year?

[johnnywarm]

this past summer you needed to pre-pay and wait for a delivery(month's).stoves the same thing.now i can get pellets,pellet stoves & wood stoves.

 

[Steve NH]

Just thinking - Last summer - when pellets were 250 tn - but couldn't get them - what if you offered them the current price 300 tn - I'm sure they would have found some.

There is never a shortage for the person willing to spend what it takes to get them.

 

[hot-n-bothered]

I can't give any exact BTU#s or scientific formulas, but in the real world it very much depends on the layout of the house. I have my heater in the same room as the 1st floor thermostat. Which allows me to shut

off the outer wings of the house that are not being used. This saves wasted heat being pushed into all that ducting and rooms (even if I close the registers in the outer rooms much of the heat is wasted due to l

leakage and cold ducting). All I have to heat is the main great room in my open floor plan which includes the kitchen - dining - living rooms. So the pellet heater in my house allows me to focus my heat where It's

need the most without as much wasted heat. It does affect lifestyle somewhat but with my kids away at college during the cold months it saves me money @ $2.00 per gallon and the colder it gets the more money

I save. Sorry It I got side tracked.....To answer the original question..... I just invested in a larger stove and thousands of dollars in masonry work, so if you want to know if there is going to be a shortage of

pellets, I can almost guarantee it.... Its just my luck.

 

[jtakeman]

I haven't had any issue's getting pellets since 2001. Even then I found them just was a little harder.(no big box store had them) It depends where and who and how much you want to pay!

Here the big box stores are closing out all there hearth supplys till fall. So you will not find then there. I have 2 (off hand) strickly pellet houses that seem to have pellets all year. They just charge more when you need them the most. Come April and May there a little easier on the wallet. (I have a bird that is saying around $275.00/ton)

So far the only price I have locked in for myself is on switch grass. $250.00 a ton(I need to work on this fellow). I will get my pre-buy prices for pellets in april.

The only shortage is on sawdust due to building trades. There is nothing saying the pellet manufactors can't buy and refine there own wood to make there own sawdust!

Can you say recycled wood. I'll burn them if thats all I can get cheap!

We will have to wait and see!
jay

 

[johnnywarm]

Just thinking - Last summer - when pellets were 250 tn - but couldn't get them - what if you offered them the current price 300 tn - I'm sure they would have found some.

There is never a shortage for the person willing to spend what it takes to get them.

i would just burn oil.they deliver and stack it for me.

 

[kinsmanstoves]

I just heard that there will be no pellets next season. Better buy now.






Just kidding.


Eric

 

[johnnywarm]

I just heard that there will be no pellets next season. Better buy now.






Just kidding.


Eric

I want them all i'll pay any amount!

 

[NoMoreOPEC]

Prices are dropping like a rock.... Here is a quote for 6 tons of LG's at pelletsales.com April Delivery..... 239 Ton

Wood Pellets (Premium) Granules LG Wood Pellets (1.5 tons/skid) Delivery in April - 6 Ton (4 skids) $239.90


-G

 

[MCPO]

Well Smokey, I've been heating my house with pellets on and off for 9 years now and I can tell you w/o any doubt, it takes a hell of a lot more that 1 ton of pellets to heat my house to the same degree that 300 gallons of oil will!

Some folks really need to stop blowing smoke where the sun doesn't shine...

Let me second that statement. The exaggerations of pellet math know no boundaries.

 

[Kenny1]

Shaking my magic 8 ball I see that there will not be a shortage.

Unless I'm wrong.

Cheers

Kenny

Hey Kenny, will you shake that 8 ball and see how the lottery is looking for me?

Better not tell you now


Back on topic, region by region will see differences in the price of pellets, but there are so many factors I think that it is impossible to say for sure what will happen. If oil stays low, fewer people will buy pellets. However, there is less raw stock (housing slump) for the pellet plants. Whole tree procvessing is possible, but adds cost to the product. Etc etc

Kenny

 

[doghouse]

We have a pellet maker up here in northern maine but has shut down, he cant get the raw product anymore due to mills shutting down. What will this do to the pellet market? At 270 a ton right now fuel oil is probably cheaper for now. Do you think they will use new trees to make them?

Where did you hear that the Northern Maine mill was closed? I was there the other day picking up some pellets and they were running! Check your facts. Rumors..

I was told Northeast Pellets in Ashland Maine was slowing production, not closing.

 

[krooser]

I cashed in my 401K so I have enough $$$ to buy pellets on the early buy program.

Started out with $1,000,000 in my account...oh well!

 

[Xena]

Prices are dropping like a rock.... Here is a quote for 6 tons of LG's at pelletsales.com April Delivery..... 239 Ton

Wood Pellets (Premium) Granules LG Wood Pellets (1.5 tons/skid) Delivery in April - 6 Ton (4 skids) $239.90


-G

Just came from their site.
Put in 6 tons delivered - system came back with
$274.73 (per ton paid by check) for March 15-30th delivery, $279.73 for April delivery.



Regardless, I'm predicting no shortage due to high pellet prices.

 

[johnnywarm]

if things stay the same as the are now? there will be alot of cheap pellet stoves for sale.

 

[Wet1]

Oh then you haven't seen the lovely flue heat losses of some oil fired systems, or the heat losses from the placement of the heat transfer pipes along uninsulated exterior walls in hydronic systems, or the heat that never really makes it out of the basement if the system is steam and especially if the steam lines are not properly insulated, or from blocked hot air ducts and filters.

Need I go on?

I've done the heating thing with oil, natural gas, wood, coal, and now pellets, using hot air, hot water, and steam.

I can tell you for a fact that what is out there for housing stock runs the gamut with a very large percentage in the unbelievably under performing category.

All the 300 gallon vs 1 ton person needs is a couple of leaks in his hot water system and I'd say yes the math does in fact add up.

I guess I should edit this to add that those two leaks don't need to even be water leaks.

I can certainly understand a system vastly out of tune or improperly installed can be inefficient and have substantial losses, but this is not a normal or typical system. To suggest that an average central heating system runs at about 29% efficiency is just plain ignorant and silly. It's these kinds of posts that get people to pay thousands of dollars for a pellet stove (plus over priced fuel) only to find out after a year or two that the payback is nowhere near what they expected it to be. There's a reason so many pellet stoves are bought and sold each year... Watch to see how many used pellet stove will be on the market this spring for pennies on the dollar. "Magic pellet' posts and misinformation hurts everyone but the stove manufacturers.

Good day.

 

[Hansson]

Its the same over here.The mills are going down and they cant get the raw product anymore.The price is rising on pellet

 

[smoke show]

can't we all just get along?

 

[johnnywarm]

can't we along just get along?

Only if you have pellets

 

[smoke show]

i got pellets
cheap ones too
and i'm not sharing

 

[Catfishjack]

if there above $235.00 a ton I won't buy them..Kerosene at $2.55 works okay for me too. I like pellets but I burn alternative fuel to save money not spend more...

 

[watrskir]

Well this is very interesting because I have been wondering if I should be burning (or saving) my pellets or oil. I ordered my stove late last year and was told it could be in may be Dec.or Jan but could be Feb.. So I pre-bought 300 gals of oil for $4.39/gal not knowing what could happen over the winter. I will add that I bought 2.5 ton of pellets at 275/ton (before I even had a stove). I got the stove Jan.11 and have only put 1/4 ton through it but heats the house nice. The same day I got a oil delivery and its not going down fast because of the pellet stove. My finished basement zone is oil heated only--no benefit from the pellet stove that is upstairs.


I have 50 gals( at 4.39g) left of pre buy and 3/4 of a tank at that is not going quick...(good I guess)

I have 2 tons of pellets left at 275/ton.

I am thinking I should shut down the stove.....save the pellets....use up all the tank and get it filled at the current price2.50-2.75/g and then bank it...and start burning pellets again!/!?.

Am I out of control...analizing this too much??


I guess it wasnt the year to buy a pellet stove/2.5 tons of pellets @275 and 300 gals of [email protected] would have known

 

[Augmister]

I just missed out getting "early" pellets in May-June 2008. I started accumulation in mid-August and picked up 2.5 tons locally without much trouble. We bought the second stove around the 4th of July and it was delivered by mid September.
I am planning on buying 3 tons in the next two months and be done with it. $20-30 difference per ton isn't going to break my bank over the next few months.
We don't have oil as a back up, but electric baseboards. At $850-900 for pellet heat for the 2009-2010 season, I am waaayyyy ahead vs the electricity alternative.

 

[JustWood]

Mills that I contract haul for are going out of business or being mothballed. 5 years ago my company was hauling 30+ loads (lumber,chips,sawdust,wood, and mulch) a week out of the mills here locally. 2 years ago I started laying off my employees. Now even my office staff is gone and I'm doing all the work myself. I'm down to about 1-2 loads a week.
The remaining mills told me yesterday that they are off for at least a week and the future doesn't look good. Lumber brokers are telling me we are in store for a 2-3 year minimum recovery in the lumber business.No mills means no loggers in the woods.
If you find a deal on pellets soon , better snag it. IMO I don't see low pellet prices like there has been in years past.

 

[Kenny1]

Blah makes a good point - if the raw material is not available, the alternative for pellet manufacturing is whole tree processing. That requires a lot more energy input, and higher production costs.

To me, one of the unknowns is the price of oil. If it stays low, most people will not use their pellet stove, which will reduce the demand for pellets, (as well as reducing the cost of production). However, I'm no expert on the laws of supply and demand, nor can I see into the future.

Also, pellet supply seems to be a regional thing - sometimes the east coast has no pellets but there are plenty on the west cost, other times the opposite is true.

 

[muss]

You all keep discussing shortage & price of pellets & it will be a sure thing no matter what that pellet prices won't drop . You don't think dealers don't know about our site ? Their lickin' their chops reading about some of the near panic on this particular thread. They just love guys like Blah (Lee's Wood) . He's the biggest cynical poster on our site . Just read all his past posts & responses. Get a grip !! We really can't forecast jack on this year's prices . That's what gonna create "shortage" Muss