Probably right. I just can't see an additional 20k for a hybrid. Even the VIA conversion of the Volt drive didn't cost that much.
Whence Toyota?!?
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SpaceBus
Minister of Fire
In pickup trucks the diesel engine option is at least $5,000 more than the gas options, in many cases $11k more. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a huge premium for a hybrid Taco or Tundra.
I don't want to see anyone fail. I am sure the Japanese are going to develop BEVs at some point, perhaps a few years late and with a govt bailout, and PR being what it is, will claim to be leading the others with better tech, when they are bringing up the rear.
The essential point is that no one is saying we have to go all EVs in 2023, or 2025. The usual figure is 2035-ish. In my mind, the transition is going to be slow and organic and require changing a lot of minds and building out a lot of infrastructure. The generational change (younger people are more on board with EVs) is already on its way. This is NOT as easy as swapping out incandescent bulbs for LED ones.
But remember, production of light ICE vehicles peaked in 2017! https://www.hearth.com/talk/threads/the-rise-of-evs-some-data.193584/
This is not some foolish politician (insert your favorite) deciding EVs are good and laying out a foolish and impossible mandate. That is a cartoon of how public policy is decided. In reality, experts and academics, often in consultation with corporations and makers try to predict future market trends... and then design that public policy (like an incentive) around the projection.
So we shouldn't be surprised when there is consensus. The US makers, the pols in different countries and different states are all looking at the same 2035 projection and planning their product lines and factory rework to that. Which of course still involves building a decade's worth of new ICE vehicles while ramping down.
The EU and China makers are working with a slightly faster timeline... bc they are a few years ahead of us on adoption for a variety of reasons.
And against this backdrop, we have a rather monolithic set of makers in Japan, that are saying the other projections are just wrong. Without providing any real modeling or data other than the usual talking points and FUD. This happens with fat and happy incumbents sometimes... they just stick their fingers in their ears and say 'No' we don't HAVE to do that, and they throw their PR and lobbying money at the politicians to block and slow and delay the existing public policy path (which is science and math driven).
This is no different than fossil energy incumbents blocking anything Renewable in the fed and state govts. Delay Delay Dealy while they make a few more years of fat profits. And making a cloud of PR and FUD that those bought pols can point to as (fake) science to justify their bad policy directions.
This is no different than Tobacco companies doing fake science and blocking anti-smoking campaigns.
The Japanese makers LIKE the status quo (they are on top, after all), and think that delaying and fake policy arguments and FUD is just fine.
And the irony is that tobacco and fossil companies can't really switch to other substitute products.
Legacy car makers CAN switch to EVs... but there is a problem. The revenue and profits associated with the new vehicles will be much lower. The vehicles have far fewer moving parts. Maintenance will be lower. The dealers and repair people and spare parts makers will all get much smaller.
So even as the volume of vehicles grows, the total revenue of the car industry is going to shrink. Not everyone can survive at their current scale.
Looks like the Tundra has had a hybrid V6 version available since the 2022 model year. It was standard with the TRD Pro version and called the iForce Max which totes a small 1.5kWh battery. In their 2023 models, the hybrid has been extended down to the Limited and Platinum versions. The Tundra Limited with hybrid goes for about $6000 more than the next model down, SR5.
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SpaceBus
Minister of Fire
I'm not impressed with the projected fuel economy on that truck, but at $6,000 I would say the hybrid option is still worth it. It looks like the system yields about 25% better fuel economy than the V8. The F150 hybrid is more impressive rated at 24 combined. Meanwhile I'm chuckling at the 26.5 MPG average I'm maintaining in my 8,000+ lb 2006 LWB 4x4 diesel 3500. I can't understand why half ton and smaller trucks can't muster much better than a gas 3/4 or 1 ton truck. Even the Maverick Hybrid is being reported to return 30 MPG average in the real world. Perhaps drag is the issue. Edit: I misread the data for the Maverick, it does appreciably better at 55 MPH and less. Some owners are reporting 40 MPG average, which is pretty good. Maybe Ford will come out with a PHEV or BEV small pickup.
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Yes, I am still amazed at the 28mpg+ I am getting with my heavy Dodge Caravan. That's my truck/camper/bus for the time being. My F150 would only get 20mpg+ under ideal conditions. The moment the turbos kicked in it dropped.
SpaceBus
Minister of Fire
Apparently in the real world F150 hybrid owners are reporting 20-21 MPG average, but not sure how much highway driving they are doing. My fuel economy drops off a cliff anywhere above 55 MPH, but your van is probably fine up to 60-65 MPH. My gearing and drag become a huge problem above 55 for me, but apparently that's the case for any truck. The hybrid trucks return the best fuel economy, not surprisingly, at 45 MPH and less and stop and go traffic.
That's very odd. I recall friends with f150s bragging about getting 22 combined and that was awhile ago. Meanwhile I was getting 15/16 in a little nissan truck I had. Geesh. Hybrid what?
Nissan makes tough vehicles, but they are not known for their gas mileage.
Our F150 did ok on fairly level freeway driving at 60 mph. I could maintain about 18 mpg with a 1200# load in back. I did once get 22 mpg on a steady 50-55mph drive, unloaded. Only once. Put the camper on and it was more like 12-16. That's what I like about the van, 28-30mpg without even trying, though most of that is at 65mph or less. At 70 mph it's likely to drop down to 26-28.
Our F150 did ok on fairly level freeway driving at 60 mph. I could maintain about 18 mpg with a 1200# load in back. I did once get 22 mpg on a steady 50-55mph drive, unloaded. Only once. Put the camper on and it was more like 12-16. That's what I like about the van, 28-30mpg without even trying, though most of that is at 65mph or less. At 70 mph it's likely to drop down to 26-28.
Well, this is an interesting turnaround. Toyota seems to finally be reading the tea leaves.
www.reuters.com
Exclusive: Toyota scrambles for EV reboot with eye on Tesla
Toyota is considering a reboot of its electric-car strategy to better compete in a booming market it has been slow to enter, and has halted some work on existing EV projects, four people with knowledge of the still-developing plans said.
SpaceBus
Minister of Fire
I've seen this from a few different sources, but it seems like Australia is going all in on EV and Hydrogen infrastructure.Well, this is an interesting turnaround. Toyota seems to be reading the tea leaves.
Exclusive: Toyota scrambles for EV reboot with eye on Tesla
Toyota is considering a reboot of its electric-car strategy to better compete in a booming market it has been slow to enter, and has halted some work on existing EV projects, four people with knowledge of the still-developing plans said.
https://www.electrive.com/2022/02/21/australia-co-funds-charging-and-h2-infrastructure/
Well, this is an interesting turnaround. Toyota seems to finally be reading the tea leaves.
Exclusive: Toyota scrambles for EV reboot with eye on Tesla
Toyota is considering a reboot of its electric-car strategy to better compete in a booming market it has been slow to enter, and has halted some work on existing EV projects, four people with knowledge of the still-developing plans said.
"Toyota's planning had assumed demand for EVs would not take off for several decades, the four people said. ... But sales of EVs are growing faster. Automakers globally now forecast plans for EVs to represent more than half of total vehicle production by 2030, part of a wave of industry-wide investment that now totals $1.2 trillion."
I like this. If the engineering is going to be of the same quality as they have on their ICE vehicles, I'd be interested.
(And I like the Aussi hydrogen push as well - technologically simpler than batteries, though infrastructure demands are higher. It could possibly make higher energy-need transport (18-wheelers and planes) more sustainable - IF hydrogen can be economically and sustainably made without cracking nat. gas....)
(And I like the Aussi hydrogen push as well - technologically simpler than batteries, though infrastructure demands are higher. It could possibly make higher energy-need transport (18-wheelers and planes) more sustainable - IF hydrogen can be economically and sustainably made without cracking nat. gas....)
SpaceBus
Minister of Fire
Aus is specifically investing in clean H2 generation, mostly from solar and wind generation. Then the H2 can be stored in a fuel cell and backfeed power when solar and wind are not producing.
SpaceBus
Minister of Fire
Hydrogen is probably good for transportation but for stationary storage there are lower cost options like flow batteries.
Yes, good for trucking but for large-scale grid system backup, there are better alternatives. I am watching ESS and their iron flow battery. It has the right combination of low cost, durability, and just about unlimited cycles, and it uses abundant resources that are recyclable. We will need many terawatts of storage capacity to make the grid carbon neutral. This technology appears to be one of the best solutions.
EbS-P
Minister of Fire
Toyota bZ3 Compact Electric Sedan Bows In China With 372-Mile Range
The Toyota bZ3 will be produced in China and sold through the FAW Toyota dealer network in the world's largest car market.
I want to see production capacity and if/when it’s going to be in the Americas and how many
Some updates....
First:
There is a bit of a scandal brewing about Toyota's first (non-joint venture) BEV: the Toyota BZ4X (or Subaru Solterra)
(and this is not about the wheels falling off, which lead to a 100% recall/buyback for the 6 mos after launch)
While the car has a stated roughly 300 mile range, it is getting a bit over 200 miles in mild usage conditions. Toyota states that the battery has a 71 kWh capacity (consistent with a 300 mile range with good efficiency like my Bolt). Testers determined that the useable capacity (which Toyota refuses to specify, but easily measured) is only 62 kWh. This is consistent with the lower range (combined with disappointing eff). There is some speculation online that this unusually large buffer on capacity is to make good on the battery warranty. Obv the larger buffer between gross and useable, the easier it is to maintain capacity into the future.
While similar discrepancies have shown up in other BEVs (the LEAF a decade ago played similar games), this is unheard of in modern BEVs. BEVs get tested by magazines and new owners and youtubers.... no one sells a BEV wth less than stated range. Imagine buying the car and getting 2/3rds of the stated range in mild weather on day one ?!?
Second:
Toyota has made a public statement that costs on the BZ4X and follow-on vehicles using the same tech are too high for them to make a profit at a competitive price. So while they had previously announced that they would be fielding a bunch of BEV models in the next few years (based on this platform), they are now saying that the BZ4X will not be produced at scale, and that they are going back to the drawing board to develop an entirely different new BEV platform! When that will be ready, and when those cars will launch at scale is currently TBD.
Ouchie.
First:
There is a bit of a scandal brewing about Toyota's first (non-joint venture) BEV: the Toyota BZ4X (or Subaru Solterra)
(and this is not about the wheels falling off, which lead to a 100% recall/buyback for the 6 mos after launch)
While the car has a stated roughly 300 mile range, it is getting a bit over 200 miles in mild usage conditions. Toyota states that the battery has a 71 kWh capacity (consistent with a 300 mile range with good efficiency like my Bolt). Testers determined that the useable capacity (which Toyota refuses to specify, but easily measured) is only 62 kWh. This is consistent with the lower range (combined with disappointing eff). There is some speculation online that this unusually large buffer on capacity is to make good on the battery warranty. Obv the larger buffer between gross and useable, the easier it is to maintain capacity into the future.
While similar discrepancies have shown up in other BEVs (the LEAF a decade ago played similar games), this is unheard of in modern BEVs. BEVs get tested by magazines and new owners and youtubers.... no one sells a BEV wth less than stated range. Imagine buying the car and getting 2/3rds of the stated range in mild weather on day one ?!?
Second:
Toyota has made a public statement that costs on the BZ4X and follow-on vehicles using the same tech are too high for them to make a profit at a competitive price. So while they had previously announced that they would be fielding a bunch of BEV models in the next few years (based on this platform), they are now saying that the BZ4X will not be produced at scale, and that they are going back to the drawing board to develop an entirely different new BEV platform! When that will be ready, and when those cars will launch at scale is currently TBD.
Ouchie.
EbS-P
Minister of Fire
So they figured out Tesla’s profit margins and can’t compete….
I have always speculated that the Rav 4 Prime was sold at a loss for PR purposes. Production volume is low and once they got them in the pipeline, they started producing a much higher percentage of the higher end models to reduce the hit. Teslas sold for a loss and may still be doing so but Tesla was selling EV credits to other companies to offset the price. My guess is Ford is doing the same with the Lightning, using the Lightning to get traffic to Ford but selling gas engine trucks to most of the buyers.
EbS-P
Minister of Fire
Just throwing this out there.
Looks like a new 4 gen Prius is about to be announced. Expectations are that the Prime will return, maybe with a larger battery for greater EV range?