Some Disturbing Climate Trends

[tlc1976]

Meanwhile, down under, 38ºC (100ºF) in winter! 2023 will be one for the record books.

View attachment 314307

Triple-Digit Winter Heat Stuns South America - Videos from The Weather Channel

Triple-digit temperatures have struck parts of South America, which is in its winter season. The abnormally hot weather has caused environmental concerns, including crops ripening months too early. - Videos from The Weather Channel | weather.com

weather.com

I do agree things are getting hotter in most places. But to be fair, most of the area in this report is in the tropics. About the equivalent of Florida to the equator, without the tempering of being surrounded by water. It’s not the same as (most of) us in the snow belt getting a triple digit winter.

 

[begreen]

The average temps in winter at the reported more northern town of (closer to the equator) Coquimbo are in the 60s, not 100. That town is 2000 miles away from the equator. Further south in Patagonia is even farther from the equator.

 

[SpaceBus]

The climate issues won't even matter once all the fish have been dragged out of the sea.

 

[woodgeek]

Not to mention it's 100f in the southern hemisphere, during winter. I can't believe people aren't lined up ready to drag big energy corporate executives into the streets.

Sigh. The global temperature trend line here is a slow linear increase, over decades of time. Superimposed on this on the year time scale is the La Nina/El Nino cycle, and perturbations from volcanic eruptions. The standard deviation of local temps (high and lows) over day timescales is also going up, because the standing wave velocity of the jet stream (Rossby waves) is slowing down (from less temp difference between the equator and polar temps). This means that local temps are varying more slowly, so a heat waves lasts longer and gets hotter, and a cold snap lasts longer and gets colder. But Rossby waves are not changing the average temp.

That's it. Your long-term local temp is slowly trending up, with annual jogs up and down from the mean. Short term the standard deviation and correlation time of the temps are going up significantly, in both warmer and colder directions.

----------------------------

Let's review how the MEDIA covers the story of global warming, a remarkably SLOW physical process.... It might be even the SLOWEST thing they have ever tried to cover.

20 years ago (1.0°C above pre-industrial), it was a personality story: 'look at these kooky scientists and that wooden Al Gore guy going on about the end of the world. Har Har.'

10 years ago (1.1°C above pre-industrial), it was, if anything a political story. But it was still mostly crickets, because the media decided that 'normal people didn't care about the issue', see the 2012 Pres debates, where it was NEVER mentioned once. When they DID cover it, it was 'These hippie guys say we can fix the problem with renewable energy and electric cars, but all these other serious guys in suits say that will never work and/or bankrupt us anyway.' see we told you it was BORING!

Today (1.2°C above pre-industrial), how does media cover the SLOW physical process: 'OMG, things catch on fire and temperature records get broken! Water gets warm and coral bleaches!' So we get lots of stories about records being broken, men biting dogs, and lions laying down with lambs. If it burns it leads. Ofc this coverage is mixed in with: 'Have we mentioned that EV charging really SUCKS, and the grid is perilously close to failure?'

Laughable.

The media does not cover:

--the actual IMPROVEMENTS made, like US per capita emissions now being down to mid- 1970s levels, despite us being far wealthier with a better standard of living.
--the IRA which has jump-started that continued decline out to the 2030s.
--Do most folks even KNOW we have a zero carbon electricity goal in place for 2050, and that we are on track for that? What if you had a 'moonshot' national program, and nobody ever found out bc the media never covered it... bc BORING.
--the changes in personal consumption that actual enable the (future) trend. But everyone DOES know that plastic straws kill sea turtles.

The reality, is that the media covers certain stories in certain seasons. Global warming makes news in the slow summer season, like 'Area man fries egg on sidewalk'. Mostly, there is an La Nina/El Nino cycle at work here in coverage. Global warming is reported shrilly during El Nino summers. The first one I recall was the record breaking 1988 summer.

The media is not doing a very good story describing a variable, 30,000 day long temperature process, with changing mean, standard deviation and correlation time.

 

[SpaceBus]

Sigh. The global temperature trend line here is a slow linear increase, over decades of time. Superimposed on this on the year time scale is the La Nina/El Nino cycle, and perturbations from volcanic eruptions. The standard deviation of local temps (high and lows) over day timescales is also going up, because the standing wave velocity of the jet stream (Rossby waves) is slowing down (from less temp difference between the equator and polar temps). This means that local temps are varying more slowly, so a heat waves lasts longer and gets hotter, and a cold snap lasts longer and gets colder. But Rossby waves are not changing the average temp.

That's it. Your long-term local temp is slowly trending up, with annual jogs up and down from the mean. Short term the standard deviation and correlation time of the temps are going up significantly, in both warmer and colder directions.

----------------------------

Let's review how the MEDIA covers the story of global warming, a remarkably SLOW physical process.... It might be even the SLOWEST thing they have ever tried to cover.

20 years ago (1.0°C above pre-industrial), it was a personality story: 'look at these kooky scientists and that wooden Al Gore guy going on about the end of the world. Har Har.'

10 years ago (1.1°C above pre-industrial), it was, if anything a political story. But it was still mostly crickets, because the media decided that 'normal people didn't care about the issue', see the 2012 Pres debates, where it was NEVER mentioned once. When they DID cover it, it was 'These hippie guys say we can fix the problem with renewable energy and electric cars, but all these other serious guys in suits say that will never work and/or bankrupt us anyway.' see we told you it was BORING!

Today (1.2°C above pre-industrial), how does media cover the SLOW physical process: 'OMG, things catch on fire and temperature records get broken! Water gets warm and coral bleaches!' So we get lots of stories about records being broken, men biting dogs, and lions laying down with lambs. If it burns it leads. Ofc this coverage is mixed in with: 'Have we mentioned that EV charging really SUCKS, and the grid is perilously close to failure?'

Laughable.

The media does not cover:

--the actual IMPROVEMENTS made, like US per capita emissions now being down to mid- 1970s levels, despite us being far wealthier with a better standard of living.
--the IRA which has jump-started that continued decline out to the 2030s.
--Do most folks even KNOW we have a zero carbon electricity goal in place for 2050, and that we are on track for that? What if you had a 'moonshot' national program, and nobody ever found out bc the media never covered it... bc BORING.
--the changes in personal consumption that actual enable the (future) trend. But everyone DOES know that plastic straws kill sea turtles.

The reality, is that the media covers certain stories in certain seasons. Global warming makes news in the slow summer season, like 'Area man fries egg on sidewalk'. Mostly, there is an La Nina/El Nino cycle at work here in coverage. Global warming is reported shrilly during El Nino summers. The first one I recall was the record breaking 1988 summer.

The media is not doing a very good story describing a variable, 30,000 day long temperature process, with changing mean, standard deviation and correlation time.

There's also a lot of data to suggest that much of the carbon holding ability of the oceans is being destroyed by overfishing worldwide. There are theories that ocean currents are slowing due to the vastly reduced biomass moving in the water. The current theory is that the movement of biomass is equal to the movement caused by wind and lunar tides.

The plastics in the ocean are almost half fishing gear, and all of the stories about straws and plastic bags are paid for by the fishing industry to cover up their part in absolutely obliterating the turtles, whales, dolphins, fish, sharks, etc. Which are mostly "by catch" that die in the massive nets. I think the data indicates that fishing vessels kill 1,000 times more animals in one day than all of the consumer plastic and discarded fishing gear do in a year.

If anything, all of the reporting on FF companies and energy production are just distracting from the actual issue, which is the wholesale destruction of our marine ecosystems.

Almost all of the news coverage is just fluff, even the environmental reporting. Fossil fuels are becoming ever more stranded assets and despite the FF companies clamoring for more leases and begging to drill, they aren't going to open new wells or new mines. There's no return on investment for them.

I have some data from my local area in the Gulf of Maine (measured in Eastport) that shows a very clear rise in temperature over the last 120 years of data. Rather than make laws to stop overfishing and protect marine ecosystems, they put a limit on recreational fishing from the Deepwater ports along the Maine Coast. Disgusting.

 

[woodgeek]

There's also a lot of data to suggest that much of the carbon holding ability of the oceans is being destroyed by overfishing worldwide. There are theories that ocean currents are slowing due to the vastly reduced biomass moving in the water. The current theory is that the movement of biomass is equal to the movement caused by wind and lunar tides.

The plastics in the ocean are almost half fishing gear, and all of the stories about straws and plastic bags are paid for by the fishing industry to cover up their part in absolutely obliterating the turtles, whales, dolphins, fish, sharks, etc. Which are mostly "by catch" that die in the massive nets. I think the data indicates that fishing vessels kill 1,000 times more animals in one day than all of the consumer plastic and discarded fishing gear do in a year.

If anything, all of the reporting on FF companies and energy production are just distracting from the actual issue, which is the wholesale destruction of our marine ecosystems.

100% agree. And the news is not told. Docs like 'Seaspiracy' are demeaned as 'vegan propaganda', While shill groups get paid to slap 'dolphin safe' on cans, while doing zero in the actual way of inspection, other than cashing the checks. Disgusting.

Almost all of the news coverage is just fluff, even the environmental reporting. Fossil fuels are becoming ever more stranded assets and despite the FF companies clamoring for more leases and begging to drill, they aren't going to open new wells or new mines. There's no return on investment for them.

I have some data from my local area in the Gulf of Maine (measured in Eastport) that shows a very clear rise in temperature over the last 120 years of data. Rather than make laws to stop overfishing and protect marine ecosystems, they put a limit on recreational fishing from the Deepwater ports along the Maine Coast. Disgusting.

Oh, the oil companies that shut down new investment in the 2020 price drop are drilling like crazy now. As has been pointed out before, the natural decline rate of an oil well is much faster than any (hypothetical) decline rate in oil demand. So we will still be drilling (when the price is high, anyways).

 

[joop]

tell the turtles to stop sticking straws up there nostrils

 

[SpaceBus]

tell the turtles to stop sticking straws up there nostrils

That's like telling a coal miner to just stop breathing in the silica and coal dust 🤣

 

[semipro]

The data for September is in:

 

[begreen]

While there are some bright moments, as a whole, we are not doing a great job according to the just released report. For the most part, the analysis is based on data up to the present, though some variables have to be based on slightly older data until new measurements are made. Overall, it's not a pretty picture.
“Many climate-related records have been broken by enormous margins in 2023."

The 2023 state of the climate report: Entering uncharted territory

Life on planet Earth is under siege. We are now in an uncharted territory. For several decades, scientists have consistently warned of a future marked by e

academic.oup.com

 

[Todd]

I think a lot of this 2023 weather extremes can be explained by the Tonga Volcanic Eruption.

 

[semipro]

An excerpt from the report:

"We are venturing into uncharted climate territory. Global daily mean temperatures never exceeded 1.5-degree Celsius (°C) above preindustrial levels prior to 2000 and have only occasionally exceeded that number since then. However, 2023 has already seen 38 days with global average temperatures above 1.5°C by 12 September—more than any other year—and the total may continue to rise. Even more striking are the enormous margins by which 2023 conditions are exceeding past extremes"

It could just be an outlier year or it could be that we're finally seeing the effects of natural regulating systems that tend to "buffer" global temps being overwhelmed.

 

[EbS-P]

I think a lot of this 2023 weather extremes can be explained by the Tonga Volcanic Eruption.

Do you have a proposed mechanism?

 

[Ashful]

I think a lot of this 2023 weather extremes can be explained by the Tonga Volcanic Eruption.

I'm no climate scientist, but nearly everything I've ever read on historic volcanic eruptions indicates mass-cooling events in their wake, not warming. For example:

"The Toba catastrophe theory holds that this event caused a severe global volcanic winter of six to ten years and contributed to a 1,000-year-long cooling episode, leading to a genetic bottleneck in humans.[2][3]"

Toba catastrophe theory - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[gthomas785]

Copied from Wikipedia

Large volcanic eruptions can inject large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, causing the formation of aerosol layers that reflect sunlight and can cause a cooling of the climate. In contrast, during the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption this sulfur was accompanied by large amounts of water vapour, which by acting as a greenhouse gas overrode the aerosol effect and caused a net warming of the climate system.[73] One study estimated a 7% increase in the probability that global warming will exceed 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) in at least one of the next five years,[74] although greenhouse gas emissions and climate policy to mitigate them remain the major determinant of this risk.[75]

 

[EbS-P]

An excerpt from the report:

"We are venturing into uncharted climate territory. Global daily mean temperatures never exceeded 1.5-degree Celsius (°C) above preindustrial levels prior to 2000 and have only occasionally exceeded that number since then. However, 2023 has already seen 38 days with global average temperatures above 1.5°C by 12 September—more than any other year—and the total may continue to rise. Even more striking are the enormous margins by which 2023 conditions are exceeding past extremes"

It could just be an outlier year or it could be that we're finally seeing the effects of natural regulating systems that tend to "buffer" global temps being overwhelmed.

Look at trend lines not data points.

Generally all this data is bad news. Carbon capture is going to be expensive and we know the US won’t spend / tax the amount needed to cover it.

From what I’ve read climate engineering by adding reflective particles to the upper atmosphere is generally seen as too extreme when /if will we know how extreme our actions need to be. Latest reports on the west Antarctic ice sheet suggest it’s too late to stop it.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is melting, and it's too late to stop it

Not only is this melting process "unavoidable," but its rate is also increasing.

www.space.com

 

[Todd]

Tonga Eruption Blasted Unprecedented Amount of Water Into Stratosphere - NASA

The huge amount of water vapor hurled into the atmosphere, as detected by NASA’s Microwave Limb Sounder, could end up temporarily warming Earth’s surface.

www.nasa.gov

 

[EbS-P]

Tonga Eruption Blasted Unprecedented Amount of Water Into Stratosphere - NASA

The huge amount of water vapor hurled into the atmosphere, as detected by NASA’s Microwave Limb Sounder, could end up temporarily warming Earth’s surface.

www.nasa.gov

Increasing the amount by water vapor by10%. Seams like a lot but what is the seasonal variation and year to year variation? At least it’s short lived. Should fall out as rain soon enough.

 

[Todd]

Increasing the amount by water vapor by10%. Seams like a lot but what is the seasonal variation and year to year variation? At least it’s short lived. Should fall out as rain soon enough.

I’ve read it could take as long as 3 years to dissipate. I wonder if this attributed to all that rain and snow last winter on the west coast or the record warming of the oceans? Now we have a strong El Niño with all this extra moisture in the atmosphere, may be a rough winter in certain areas?

 

[woodgeek]

Increasing the amount by water vapor by10%. Seams like a lot but what is the seasonal variation and year to year variation? At least it’s short lived. Should fall out as rain soon enough.

Unlike the troposphere which is turbulent, the stratosphere is quite stable and mixes slowly. Thus the longer time for the water to work its way out.

 

[begreen]

Scientific American just published a summary of the report.

Earth’s Latest ‘Vital Signs’ Show the Planet Is in Crisis

The overall picture of Earth’s health is grim, although there are bright spots: solar and wind power are on the rise, and deforestation has slowed

www.scientificamerican.com

 

[Ashful]

I think you guys are looking at the wrong indicators.

 

[begreen]

LOL I guess by now that justifies gardening naked.