For an outside installation, you should really go with an insulation that is impervious to air infiltration from wind, and won't degrade if it gets wet UNLESS you can build a perfect weathertight box around it (not an easy thing to do).
Heat loss through the insulation can be easily calculated if you make some basic assumptions. First, just calculate heat loss through the insulation for each of the four seasons using average outdoor temperatures. These temperatures might be on your electric bill, or available on-line.
Then, you want to solve for BTUs of heat loss. Units of R-Value are [(square feet*degrees F*hours)/BTU]. Thus, if you know the number of square feet you are trying to insulate, the degree difference between the water in the tank and the outside air, and the number of hours (in this case, in a season), then you can solve for BTU of heat loss for a given R-Value.
If you have a cylindrical tank, you can calculate the surface area if you know the tank diameter and radius (radius = 1/2 the diameter) and length. Surface area is 2*3.14*radius*length +2*3.14*radius*radius. If you had a diameter of 3 feet (1.5 foot radius) and a length of 6 feet, then the surface area is 70.65 square feet.
If you assume that your tank temperature is always 180 degrees F, and the average winter outside air temperature is 20 degrees F, then the average temperature difference is 160 degrees F.
The number of hours in a season is 24 hours/day * 91.5 days/season = ~2200 hours in a season (rounded up)
Then, the BTU loss for the winter period through the insulation is (70.65 square feet * 160 degrees F * 2200 hours) / 50 [(square feet*degrees F*hours)/BTU] = 497376 BTUs, or the equivalent of about 3-1/2 gallons of oil burned at 100% efficiency. Not too bad for the winter season. It works out to about 226 BTUs per hour. Loss through the summer, spring, and fall season could be similarly calculated.
HOWEVER, with superinsulated systems like this, the heat loss by conduction through things like connected pipes, pressure relief valves, etc. is probably much higher. Therefore, you need to use every trick in the book to minimize heat loss through this fittings, especially if they are exposed to the outside air.
Once you know the BTU loss for a given value of insulation, it is pretty easy to calculate your payback period for a given insulation value compared to another insulation value. Or, how quickly the tank will cool off if it is not re-heated.
If the calculations seems a little intimidating to you, post again and I'll help you work through it.