Hi Woodgeek, I want to believe that there are alternatives to nuclear power, and believe me, I am no big fan of nuclear. But when the math is crunched on electricity usage, wind and solar just aren't going to be able to fill the demand at their current rates of adoption or even massively accelerated rates of adoption. I hate nuclear but I hate not being realistic even more.
It is hard to imagine holding electricity demand constant for the next 20 years, but even if you could imagine that, the numbers don't work if you phase out all nuclear tomorrow. Best case - keeping nuclear electricity production where it is at and not growing it. Phasing it out completely is off the table, for all practical purposes, unless you want to replace it all with fossil fuel. Yep, it sucks we are where we are with nuclear, but it is what it is. There are no non-fossil fuel alternatives to replace it with, and renewables and demand reduction can't grow fast enough, unless you want to throw in the towel on an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide production by 2050 (if you do throw in the towel on that, then you can get rid of all nuclear in 10 years or less, likely, and just replace it with natural gas generation).
Regarding wind capacity, you can install all the wind turbines you want, but if the wind doesn't blow, there is no electricity, so there needs to be a backup of some kind - nobody wants to be told on that hot, humid, windless August day that there is no electricity for their AC. Backups cost money - you have to pay twice for generating capacity. That adds cost. A mix of solar and wind is good - when the sun shines, the wind might not be blowing and vice-a-versa. But wind outproduces solar by 10x or more right now - you would need to add a lot of solar. I don't see solar being 8% of our electricity generation in 20 years (I wish I could see that) - most people truly can't afford it, think they can't afford it, or would rather spend their money on something else. And if more wind power spread out over large areas is the right plan, you have to plan on building lots of HVDC transmissions lines at $1 billion/1000MW capacity/200 miles to move it around and tie the grid together for stabilization. We all pay for that in our bills as well, and most people already complain about their rates!
Conservation is the key. The "negawatt" (term coined years ago by Amory Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute) is the cheapest way to go, and it doesn't mean any of us have to freeze in the winter or suffer in the summer, or read by candlelight. My wife and I have our electricity consumption down to ~400 kWh per month and we do everything with electricity except heat our house, and we don't suffer. I am positive that you probably have a similar story to tell, but we are in the minority. Granted, we don't have hot summers where we live, we hang our clothes out to dry, and we shop wisely and have made smart "investments" in energy reducing appliances. Not everyone can afford to do what we've done, but most people do nothing out of ignorance, not choice. Until you solve the ignorance problem, you have to have the reliable generating capacity, and I don't see the ignorance problem being solved very quickly - that is a long process.
For what it's worth, my solar install is on-line in about 2 weeks - I'm doing my part, but I have no belief that enough other people will be able to or be willing to do the same.