Firestarter - Thanks to the link to our website.
http://www.ujr.ca/EN/eastern_embers.htm
As a retailer selling Eastern Embers, I am still of the opinion that demand exceeds supply, although not as bad as last year. Even last year, at the height of the pellet shortage, consumers were still buying pellet stoves. In October and November 2008, a two month wait period for periods was not unlikely.
It should be noted that there is a massive increase in capacity on the market. We are seeing the introduction of new mills, and of pellets being trucked in from Maine. Shaw has also increased its production of Eastern Embers pellets. (although our costs as a retailer have increased considerably from where they were a few years ago to cover their increased cost of raw materials.)
We are also seeing more retailers that have shifted their stock orders to the summer months anticipating that customers who had to wait several months for pellets last year would be proactive and buy before the season started. While a few did, the vast majority of pellet users are seemingly only coming to the market now at the first of September. This means that a number of retailers actually have an inventory accumulated at the moment. Having this inventory on the ground means that we likely will not see the delays and wait times that we experienced in 2008.
Pricing has gone down slightly from the high point of last winter. We saw as high as $6.99 per bag in our area. This year $5.99 per bag seems to the market price for southern Nova Scotia. Pricing as you get closer to the center of the province may be a bit cheaper as Shaw has graduated pricing with dealers who are farther away having to cover more in shipping charges. I think demand will be sufficient enough for dealers to stick to their pricing and that we likely will not see a decline in overall market pricing. The few dealers that may discount cheaper will see their stock bought up rather quickly, and those that don't will still likely sell all at their market prices anyway.
My advice - if you have a pellet stove - buy your pellets now and not in October or November. At the very least, call and get your orders in the system so that the stores can set some aside for you. And don't be surprised if in December there are still pellet supply issues.
If anyone is in southern Nova Scotia (Annapolis, Digby, Yarmouth, Shelburne area), and interested in Eastern Embers wood pellets or has any questions, check our website and let me know. For the moment, we are still limiting our pellet sales to our immediate area and are still not shipping out of province.