Out of Stock

[begreen]

It's related because the media is claiming that they can't move this freight due to lack of manpower. Or at least that's what our news said. Longshoreman, truckers, etc. The ports are full of product with ships full of more floating offshore. Then our store shelves are empty. So the missing link is between the port and the shelf somewhere. That link seems to be manpower.

Labor shortages on the docks are an issue. It's why they are going to 24/7 operation at the Port of Los Angeles. However, there are labor shortages in the merchant marine and other areas too. Remember, some of these guys were not able to get off of a boat for many months, if not a year, due to covid.

But the big issue is that with mega-corps now running the consumables $hitshow, everything is based on just-in-time deliveries. They can not start production on many items now unless the line is ready to roll. And that means every single part, down to the washers, needs to be stocked to feed the line before production can start. That was fine when there were no major shipping disrupters, but with everyone going for the cheapest way to produce, a global pandemic has kicked just-in-time production in the ass. It may take a year or two for things to settle down and that is assuming a newer stronger variant doesn't reset the clock again. Covid has found the Achilles heel of global economics and cut it.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

Labor shortages on the docks are an issue. It's why they are going to 24/7 operation at the Port of Los Angeles. However, there are labor shortages in the merchant marine and other areas too. Remember, some of these guys were not able to get off of a boat for many months, if not a year, due to covid.

But the big issue is that with mega-corps now running the consumables $hitshow, everything is based on just-in-time deliveries. They can not start production on many items now unless the line is ready to roll. And that means every single part, down to the washers, needs to be stocked to feed the line before production can start. That was fine when there were no major shipping disrupters, but with everyone going for the cheapest way to produce, a global pandemic has kicked just-in-time production in the ass. It may take a year or two for things to settle down and that is assuming a newer stronger variant doesn't reset the clock again. Covid has found the Achilles heel of global economics and cut it.

I used to do as much JIT as possible, but started to keep more stock last year. When things started shutting down I started ordering a season's worth as much as possible.

It got hard to predict what would be out of stock. We had to switch away from some suppliers completely.

 

[mar13]

I saw where gasoline was $7.59 a gallon in parts of California, I hope those trucks fill up before they get to that area! Could add 20% on to the freight charge real quick!

Paid $4.50/gal for regular at Costco a few days ago. I live in one of the most expensive parts of California with regards to gasoline. $7.50 a gallon is what I paid for a gallon of ethanol free gasoline last week (for small engines, not road use).

 

[Rusty18]

Paid $4.50/gal for regular at Costco a few days ago. I live in one of the most expensive parts of California with regards to gasoline. $7.50 a gallon is what I paid for a gallon of ethanol free gasoline last week (for small engines, not road use).

Thanks for clearing that up, stupid news reporters...
I was starting to think I was gonna have to ride the horse to work. I could pen him up in the managers office, maybe he’d drop a few loads of air fresheners in there .

JIT when right out the window, stuff that used to be 2 weeks is now 6 months...not guaranteed.

 

[ABMax24]

Part of it is also consumer driven shortages, the entire premise of this thread is to stock up on items while you can before they run out, ironically it's a self fulfilling prophecy, because if people weren't buying items months and years in advance there would be more product to go around to everyone.

 

[SpaceBus]

I saw where gasoline was $7.59 a gallon in parts of California, I hope those trucks fill up before they get to that area! Could add 20% on to the freight charge real quick!

That only applies to very remote areas. Much like fuel is more expensive in Alaska. Los Angeles still has normal priced fuel.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

Part of it is also consumer driven shortages, the entire premise of this thread is to stock up on items while you can before they run out, ironically it's a self fulfilling prophecy, because if people weren't buying items months and years in advance there would be more product to go around to everyone.

Not completely. Maybe with normal consumer goods, but who us stocking up on refrigerators?

Have you passed the half empty car lots? I doubt people are stocking up on those. Pesticides? Hardware cloth? Trim coil? Drill bits? It goes on and on.

I've been waiting for a new circuit board in my clothes washer for 6 months now. Luckily it works a little bit and my wife hasn't demanded a new washer yet. But she's close. It's only 2 years old and under warranty still. I don't know what I will do with 2 washing machines, I really don't want to buy a new one.

I can buy a toilet paper shortage being consumer driven. Not everything in short supply is something a soccer mom is going to pick up.

 

[ABMax24]

Not completely. Maybe with normal consumer goods, but who us stocking up on refrigerators?

Have you passed the half empty car lots? I doubt people are stocking up on those. Pesticides? Hardware cloth? Trim coil? Drill bits? It goes on and on.

I've been waiting for a new circuit board in my clothes washer for 6 months now. Luckily it works a little bit and my wife hasn't demanded a new washer yet. But she's close. It's only 2 years old and under warranty still. I don't know what I will do with 2 washing machines, I really don't want to buy a new one.

I can buy a toilet paper shortage being consumer driven. Not everything in short supply is something a soccer mom is going to pick up.

That's right, that's why I started that statement with "part of it".

Another factor is government handouts and low interest rates have put disposable income into the hands of many people at the same time and allowed them to purchase these goods. Yes supply chain shortages are the major factor, but not the only one. Snowmobiles are an example here, the local dealers have sold more machines than ever before, at a time when the factories can't maintain normal production. Vehicles are the same, the GMC dealer has one pickup and two SUV's left on the lot, everything else is sold and gone. People are paying sticker price and above for new pickups, but with the low interest rates are trading in their older units and their monthly payments are remaining about the same.

Housing is about the same, lower interest rates have allowed purchasers to spend more on a home and real estate prices have risen accordingly. Though the average mortgage payment has remained about the same, but the amount borrowed has increased significantly.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

We replaced a truck this year we weren't planning on for the business. We had a '17 Ram that was nearing 100k miles. It was bought 2 years ago with low 30s on the clock.. Body was fine, engine was fine, it was a good truck. We'd heard that stupid prices were being offered for used vehicles. We shrugged and went to see what they'd offer. We bought it for 24 after taxes, title, etc. They offered 21 for it. We picked up a brand new Chevy that hadn't even been delivered to the dealer yet for 44. There was no negotiation on price, lol. It was straight off the truck. Nobody else even test drove it. We get about 3mpg better with it and our pmt went up by 50. We took a longer term though. That truck drives 30k/year. I'm sure the increase in gas more than pays for the increase in pmt.

As an aside, I don't like the truck. I'm glad I dont have to drive it. Mechanically it seems fine. I hate the seats. I drive 40k/yr. That many miles in a seat I dont like would make me bitter.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

Last year was real big on snow equipment. Here,cross country skis were hard to find. There were stories from ski shops where people were bringing in 30yo skis with the old 3 pin bindings looking to upgrade boots and bindings. I got the kid hooked on the sport last year. Once she figured out she liked it, quick math said I needed to find her skis. Multiple shops visited and I found 1 set of skis in her size. Done.

This year, my skis need to be replaced. She wants to do backcountry and her skis are more that style than groomed trail. My 15 year old groomed surface skis wouldn't survive back country for long, nor my middle aged ankles. Looking closely at what's now being made has me excited. So much has changed! This year's skis are starting to come out. I'm hoping that I can get to the shops soon.