Oil: Doom, Doom, Doom.....Plenty.....Doom?

[Ehouse]

As far as rail transport goes, we're surprisingly close to an efficient system, IMHO. In high population areas with frequent stops, 3'd rail or catenary (overhead) delivery of juice is working fairly well. Great improvements can be made at the substation interface for quick charging of capacitor/battery banks, making for a seamless interface with current "over the road" plug in hybrid, AC, diesel/electric with regenerative braking motive systems, eliminating the costly catenary aspect entirely. As tech. improvements stretch out the required distance between charging stops, less and less on board fuel is used until old #9 is going 100 miles before needing a fix.

Surprisingly, nearly all of the above tech. is ancient, going back to the beginning of the 20'th century.

Here's what we need:

Improved electricity storage. Why can't we crack this nut?

Localized electricity production. It makes less and less sense to move juice from Canadian Hydro or windmills upstate to the NY metro area. We should be working on reactor and/or fuel cell tech that is safe enough to put in abandoned athletic stadiums which are myriad in the metro area. If it's safe enough to put in my back yard then it's safe enough to put in yours.

Re-mapping, re-vamping of rail corridors with the separation of freight and passenger/light rail in mind. I like the idea of running passenger rail concurrent with the major highway system.

Add more opportunities for bikes everywhere, especially in metro areas. I like BG's elevated tubes!

 

[Bigg_Redd]

Indeed, warmer climate in the past has been wetter. But the models are saying that fast warming is different from slow warming. Basically, the temperature of the ocean lags the temperature of the land, by a few centuries. During that period, evaporation over the ocean doesn't increase significantly, while condensation over the warm land decreases, less rain, and evaporation over the land increases, drying the soil. IOW, AGW inducing widespread drought IS axiomatic weather science.

Not widely known, that's why I gave you links.

The models also predicted warming over the last ten years. . .

How does a model that predicts warming predict that warming only for the 20% of the planet not covered by water pass the laugh test?

 

[Seasoned Oak]

Solar efficientcy is already dangerously close to making big power plants obsolete,any substantial gains there will really shake up the industry. Solar companies are already leasing solar electric generating equipment to the consumer for Zero investment on the consumers part paid for by the savings in electric bills. ID be selling my stock in PP&L if i had any.

 

[woodgeek]

The models also predicted warming over the last ten years. . .

How does a model that predicts warming predict that warming only for the 20% of the planet not covered by water pass the laugh test?

Global atmosphere temp fluctuations on decade time scales (noise) are comparable to the current AGW warming temperature (signal). Ocean warming away from the surface is still quite small.

We don't believe in AGW because of observed warming. We believe AGW because it is basic physics. The model warming predictions for the CO2 released to date are modest, and comparable to the modest warming signal observed.

Who's laughing?

 

[Delta-T]

GW aside, at the very least, we can agree that there is acid rain, dirty air, and no real "up side" to deforestation/open pit mining in regards to good stewardship of the planet. I still prefer the smell of the woods to the smell of diesel and asphalt. If we happen to save the planet and ourselves?...well, that's not such a bad thing...or is it?

 

[Frozen Canuck]

Some very interesting ideas & discussion in this thread.

WG has a point; plenty of tech that has been mothballed could be rolled out on relatively short notice to hopefully ease the worst of it.

One thing I cannot get around though is what will the 9 billion?? of us do about fresh water?

This is likely the first resource we consume/foul. I am aware of some small scale things like fog harvesting etc that would help in certain areas (topography) but I have no clue how we get fresh water to the 9 billion?

Very energy intensive to desalinate sea water on a municipal scale, never mind distribution. Some areas will have enough fresh water, plenty of variance though even within the borders of a nation.

At some point folks without fresh water will have to move, likely causing further issues in areas with enough water.

Or am I just missing the bigger picture & there is no real solution only band-aids until we deal with population issues?

 

[Doug MacIVER]

think we need smokey's input here, forest fire danger?(broken link removed to http://www.sunjournal.com/files/imagecache/story_large/2013/04/23/112712kibbymtAP.jpg)

 

[woodgeek]

Sorry about the necroposting....

but if you liked this thread, you might want to check out this (6 mo old) blog post I just came across....and its comments...

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/11/05/mmm-interviews-ere-on-peak-oil/

This blogger, MMM, is a fun read, a semi-retired former software engineer in his late 30s. Most of his thinking resonates with mine, but I am mostly amazed that his lengthy comment sections somehow don't degenerate into flame-wars. Maybe he has an Ash Can I don't know about.

 

[Jags]

Necroposting? Now that there is funny - I don't care who you are.

 

[woodgeek]

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=necropost

 

[woodgeek]

And now, the Oil Drum is closing down....

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/10059

RIP, and thanks for all the scary memories. (and linking me into Hearth.com back in 2007)

 

[Circus]

Global warming warms in spurts, not linearly. When thresholds are reached there's no going back. Example: The rotting of 10,000 years of permafrost emitting methane.

 

[BrotherBart]

And now, the Oil Drum is closing down....

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/10059

RIP, and thanks for all the scary memories. (and linking me into Hearth.com back in 2007)

Yep. Looks like The Oil Drum "peaked".

 

[Seasoned Oak]

At least now we have some alternatives if supply weakens. Although for heavy trucks CNG might be the only alternative to diesel.

 

[Doug MacIVER]

At least now we have some alternatives if supply weakens. Although for heavy trucks CNG might be the only alternative to diesel.

burn more food?