Not buying pellets this spring.

[SXIPro]

All the places, from the BBS to the local dealers that have been screwing us the last few years by selling crap pellets for $260 a ton, middle of the road pellets for $289 a ton and 'premium' pellets for over $300.00 a ton can choke on all the surplus they get stuck with this year for all I care. Karma truly is a B1tch.

 

[mass_burner]

Based on what exactly. Almost every industry analyst and oil futures broker disagrees with your "analysis."

Nobody knows anything, there are no experts. What does months of analysis means before you spin a roulette wheel?

 

[Pete Zahria]

All the places, from the BBS to the local dealers that have been screwing us the last few years

I wish you wouldn't lump those two retailers together.

 

[TimfromMA]

At $1.40 per gallon for heating oil, I need pellets to drop below $240 per ton to be economical again.

 

[SXIPro]

I wish you wouldn't lump those two retailers together.

If it wasn't my own personal experience, or if it wasn't accurate (at least in my area), I would not have lumped them together.

 

[alternativeheat]

The pellet market is screwed up and it's open in such a way that dealers can get away with screwing the consumer too ( I don't care if it's big box, little box or local dealer, it can and does happen). That part of burning pellets is disheartening and it's all about buyer be ware. So most everyone here would agree that Green Supreme and New England Wood Pellets are the same pellet in different bags. The local dealers and stove shops sell NEWP, chain stores and BBS sell GS. Half a mile from my house is a hardware store of the Aubuchon chain, they sell GS for $6,49 a bag and it's been that way all of last year and this year right straight through the oil drop. I can drive to the dealer where I I bought my stove 7 miles away and pay $6.99 and get the original bags of NEWP with the same pellets inside. Big whoop, I throw out a different color bag ! I can drive 12 miles the other way and go to a different stove dealer and get NEWP there for $6.79. But I can drive 16 miles to Lowes and get the exact same pellet in GS bags for $3.99. Basically $3 a bag cheaper.

 

[Peterfield]

Nobody knows anything, there are no experts. What does months of analysis means before you spin a roulette wheel?

Well, that's certainly true on this forum regarding oil futures. There are folks that get paid a lot of money to know these things and I am acquainted with several. I was told in no uncertain terms oil prices were going to fall due to oversupply and that excess in inventories and the path that prices have taken exactly follow the model these folks are using to conduct their business. Here's a hint - today's prices do not yet include the expected influx of Iranian oil after the embargo was lifted. Add an ElNino winter to the mix and it was a bad season to try to cash in on the pellet craze from the previous two seasons. I prefer pellet heat over any other source but some vendors can kiss my arse if they think I'm paying +$300 for a ton of pellets in today's market, unless they can also cook me breakfast.

 

[Peterfield]

I wish you wouldn't lump those two retailers together.

Dan is right and he's said this before. There are pellet stores out there that have consistently sold high quality pellets and their prices have not "fluctuated" unreasonably over the past several years and these types of establishments should not be lumped in with Lowe's, Home Depot and other establishments who thought they could ride the wave of popularity with pellets all the way to the bank.

 

[Pete Zahria]

If it wasn't my own personal experience, or if it wasn't accurate (at least in my area), I would not have lumped them together.

Hopefully you have found a good local dealer to give your business....

Dan

 

[SXIPro]

Hopefully you have found a good local dealer to give your business....

Dan

I actually find all local dealers overpriced and/or they carry brands I will not buy. (NEWP as an example). I hate giving my money to HD or Lowes, but money talks, and if the local guys are gonna run 10-15% higher $$ for equal quality pellets, I will continue to vote with my wallet.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

No way pellets are worth $300 a ton ,if you compare the BTUs with coal ,pellets are worth about $120-$132 a ton. YOu need a ton and a halt of pelletts to equal a ton of coal.

 

[Tonyray]

Interesting points concerning pellets and Oil....But,
really don't think any math or science, charts or whatever is going to cause 90% of pellet burners to change..
people like what they like...
It's why some drive cheaper priced cars and others drive exspensive ones even though both will get u from Point A to point B and back, warm in the winter, cool in the summer and dry when it rains..
all about personal preferences... just my 2 cents..

 

[TimfromMA]

No way pellets are worth $300 a ton ,if you compare the BTUs with coal ,pellets are worth about $120-$132 a ton. YOu need a ton and a halt of pelletts to equal a ton of coal.

You live in coal country, of course you can get it cheap. Not so much in other parts of the country.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

You live in coal country, of course you can get it cheap. Not so much in other parts of the country.

What does coal cost up there? Here its about $200 delivered.

 

[PinetreePellets]

At $1.40 per gallon for heating oil, I need pellets to drop below $240 per ton to be economical again.

I'd recheck your math based on btu's. Cause if you are using simple economics you are way high on the pellet price per ton. Based on 8,700btu pellets it would be more around the $175-$180 per ton.

 

[bogieb]

What does coal cost up there? Here its about $200 delivered.

$325/ton cash you pick up. Or, I've seen it at (broken link removed to http://www.hardwarestore.com/search.aspx?query=coal)and Agway for over $8/bag or $500+/ton. Although, I see TSC has nut and rice coal on sale for $5/bag

 

[Seasoned Oak]

$325/ton cash you pick up. Or, I've seen it at (broken link removed to http://www.hardwarestore.com/search.aspx?query=coal)and Agway for over $8/bag or $500+/ton. Although, I see TSC has nut and rice coal on sale for $5/bag

Well that changes everything in the calculation.

 

[alternativeheat]

Well that changes everything in the calculation.

Like it says in my signature I burned coal for more than 35 years, there is a reason I changed and it wasn't because I didn't like coal ! However, I must say that I wasn't counting on the pellet pricing gouge and shortages we have been through. I hope the industry can stabilize a little bit going forward. It's too bad about coal but I think that industry is going to dry up here in New England in due time. i was surprised to see TSC pick up the line though, that's encouraging.

 

[Pete Zahria]

I actually find all local dealers overpriced and/or they carry brands I will not buy.

I think a lot of people may think that,
because they are using the previous years' BBS pricing for their comparison.
BBS stores used to sell at cost, or near cost. It was to get people in the store, and to keep cash flow.
This year, they are pricing their products as a legit profit item.
Of course they can sell stuff cheaper than a family owned hardware store, or feed store,
or a small pellet dealer. They do get a break on the price, but not huge.
We don't sell lawn mowers, refrigerators, shingles, plywood, vanities, yada, yada, yada...
Just pellets and coal.
In 2011 we sold Okies for $289 LG Granules for $269 Blaschak coal for $315.
In 2016 we sell La Crete for $285, LG granules for $279, Blaschak coal for $325.
When Green Supremes were selling for $269, and Green Team for $349 at BBS
we had Douglas Fir for $349.
I've said this before, I don't mean to beat a dead horse.. because it's how it is.
If there was a lot of money in pellets, you would see them everywhere...

This is why it strikes a little nerve when we are thought to be gouging.

 

[velvetfoot]

And I just ordered a load of logs!

 

[Seasoned Oak]

Lots of power companies switching to Nat.Gas over coal ,some have coal as a backup. Not sure how reduced demand from power companies wil affect price. I do think pellet prices will stabilize with more players in the market. Only so much waste wood to go around though.

 

[billb3]

If oil was back at crude:125/bbl and HHO at $3.75 many tethered to oil for heat would be screaming "gouging" too.


Home Depot is selling the balance of their inventory right now at $199 locally. None of the stores that had 100-200 ton a month or two ago have much left. Most I see 30 miles away is 52 ton. If $199 is their cost and $260 is 30% they didn't make a hell of a lot of money. I doubt 199 is their cost but I bet its pretty close after shipping and handling to the individual stores.

Last year was different and there were some opportunists. But that "opportunism" existed across all the heating fuels, not just pellets.

 

[billb3]

Lots of power companies switching to Nat.Gas over coal ,some have coal as a backup. Not sure how reduced demand from power companies wil affect price. I do think pellet prices will stabilize with more players in the market. Only so much waste wood to go around though.

I wouldn't be surprised to hear the price of scrap wood chips for making potting soil was pushing the price of potting soil up

 

[alternativeheat]

Lots of power companies switching to Nat.Gas over coal ,some have coal as a backup. Not sure how reduced demand from power companies wil affect price. I do think pellet prices will stabilize with more players in the market. Only so much waste wood to go around though.

They stopped producing pellets from just waste wood three years ago now, no way in todays building market could that keep up with demand. Today some clear cut woods go right to the mill for pellet production ( follow a logging truck in Maine sometime and see where it ends up). Now I will grant you it's not prime #1 pine generally but don't be fooled into thinking it's waste only, as in cut offs and saw dust from mills. Raw stock goes to the mills, it might be lower grade logs but logs non the less and by the truck load.

 

[Bioburner]

With the beetles making a major impact on growth of pine trees around the Rushmore area I see a plant being viable there to process the trees into something. Emerald ash borer is taking out the Ash trees in many areas.