The international energy agency (IEA) puts out annual reports on global energy usage. The 2021 was just dropped:
www.iea.org
Like its US cousin the 'EIA' it projects future usage/demand/prices using current laws and regulations as a baseline. This was infuriating as they spent a couple decades making CO2 emission projections that were not consistent with a recognizable climate in 2100, when we already knew that.
Post Paris, their baseline now consists of what would happen if countries kept their current Paris pledges. Surprise: Waaay better than the 'Business as usual' model in 2010, but still above +3°C versus mid 20th century. The old BAU model was closer to +5°C.
For example: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-emissions-by-scenario-2000-2050
This does not mean that Paris is a 'failure' IMO, bc 3.x°C and a process for further reduction IS better the 4.5-5°C. It WILL be a failure if NONE of the major emitters come anywhere close to their existing pledges, let alone improve on them over the next 5-10 years.
Oh, and there is a LOT of news about a fossil energy crisis, $100 oil, gasoline (UK) and natgas (China) shortages. The usual suspects are trying to spin/pin this on renewables, the other side is trying to say 'Nope.'.
Your thoughts?
![www.iea.org](/talk/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fiea.imgix.net%2Fbe0e4f36-3bec-479f-9dea-d2ecc158c917%2FWEO2021Coverimage.jpg%3Fauto%3Dcompress%252Cformat%26fit%3Dmin%26q%3D80%26rect%3D862%252C0%252C2122%252C2123&hash=806fb823b3a5f9e11f6b70360de1b3e0&return_error=1)
World Energy Outlook 2021 – Analysis - IEA
World Energy Outlook 2021 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.
![www.iea.org](/talk/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.iea.org%2Fassets%2Ffront%2Fimages%2Ffavicon-32x32.png&hash=33ca42157e33a7c1d51f7fd0536be561&return_error=1)
Like its US cousin the 'EIA' it projects future usage/demand/prices using current laws and regulations as a baseline. This was infuriating as they spent a couple decades making CO2 emission projections that were not consistent with a recognizable climate in 2100, when we already knew that.
Post Paris, their baseline now consists of what would happen if countries kept their current Paris pledges. Surprise: Waaay better than the 'Business as usual' model in 2010, but still above +3°C versus mid 20th century. The old BAU model was closer to +5°C.
For example: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-emissions-by-scenario-2000-2050
This does not mean that Paris is a 'failure' IMO, bc 3.x°C and a process for further reduction IS better the 4.5-5°C. It WILL be a failure if NONE of the major emitters come anywhere close to their existing pledges, let alone improve on them over the next 5-10 years.
Oh, and there is a LOT of news about a fossil energy crisis, $100 oil, gasoline (UK) and natgas (China) shortages. The usual suspects are trying to spin/pin this on renewables, the other side is trying to say 'Nope.'.
Your thoughts?