Lumber Prices
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EbS-P
Minister of Fire
This take seems pretty reasonable. All big apartment and business buildings are kind here that have gone up in the last two years that I have driven by have all been stick built. First metal frame went up 2 months ago.
(broken link removed to https://theweek.com/articles-amp/979731/lumber-shockingly-expensive-thanks-obama)
(broken link removed to https://theweek.com/articles-amp/979731/lumber-shockingly-expensive-thanks-obama)
SpaceBus
Minister of Fire
I liked the article. The link in the article takes you to Market Insider's coverage of lumber trading. Unfortunately there is no data for 1/8/20-30/8/20, but within that 30 day period the price of lumber tripled. I guess that's when people started getting the federal unemployment benefits/backpay. Perhaps the PPP loans started kicking in?
SpaceBus
Minister of Fire
Bad LP
Minister of Fire
I’m getting or let’s start over. I should be getting a new standing seam roof this month. Raw roll stock went up almost .60/ft. All pricing is crazy across the board. I got no choice unless I want to risk more potential damage to a 16 yo house.
Thanks IKO for such great 30 year POS shingles.
Yes. People need to think a lot harder before they tear down an old house. With some investments, it may have many years life left.
That's funny, people are so disconnected with reality these days it's laughable, reading the YouTube comments is saddening, people can't explain basic supply and demand, so it must be a conspiracy. That's not a significant amount of lumber by any means, it would build what? A few neighborhoods of single family houses, peanuts compared to the amount of houses under construction in the US.
We have 3 mills in town, each mill right now regularly has that much lumber/OSB sitting in their warehousing yards awaiting shipment to customers. Their inventory has decreased significantly in the last year, a few years back the one mill turned one end of the employee parking lot into extra storage area, they couldn't give the lumber away.
Builders right now are losing money left and right on contracted houses, they couldn't forecast lumber going up this high so buyers are getting a good deal if they bought a house a few months ago.
Many are building spec houses now since that seems the way to go with the variable costs.
Many are building spec houses now since that seems the way to go with the variable costs.
Podcast on strange economics of lumber prices. https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/the-jo...r-market/43b4d423-4754-4716-99b1-4cbb84a75366
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Not just lumber . Last may a 40lb box of Ch wings Was $40 Now $144 . Probably from bars shutting down and now opening Cuz drumstix are about the same pr $23 a 40Lb Case. Supply and Demand.
Winter was rough on Southern chicks right when all the burger chains decided to amp up their chicken offerings.
Is there a chicken shortage? How COVID, chicken sandwich war and chicken wing demand are impacting restaurants
Is there a national chicken wing shortage? The nation's chicken sandwich wars and cravings for comfort food during COVID have made poultry scarce.
www.usatoday.com
I was just at Menards in Rice Lake WI and a standard 2x4 8’ stud is now $12.29 minus the 11% merchandise credit rebate they‘ve been running for a few months now. That’s insane... I thought when they his $8 the world had gone bonkers but there seems the Price hasn’t topped out yet for lumber. BTW I priced 7/16 4x8 OSB sheets too and they are now $55 each. I won’t even look at treated anymore. I just built one more wood rack two weeks ago with treated 2x4’s and it cost me $80 to make it And I was crying about them costing me $50 last summer to build lol.
Oh yea wire is high too, 14/2 romex is $150 for a 250’ roll and 12/2 is a whopping $225. Crazy!
![[Hearth.com] Lumber Prices](https://www.hearth.com/talk/data/attachments/278/278834-b24531c971eef4cad16480ba12969946.jpg?hash=CU3dqHqsH4 "[Hearth.com] Lumber Prices")
![[Hearth.com] Lumber Prices](https://www.hearth.com/talk/data/attachments/278/278835-6ee80a47c0944642823bd051c9f5e3de.jpg?hash=Wp3N6NJFY1 "[Hearth.com] Lumber Prices")
Oh yea wire is high too, 14/2 romex is $150 for a 250’ roll and 12/2 is a whopping $225. Crazy!
brenndatomu
Minister of Fire
They must be running out...there's no way they are selling any real quantity at that price!
I'm thinking about making the garden a lil bigger this year...
![[Hearth.com] Lumber Prices](https://www.hearth.com/talk/data/attachments/278/278837-816acf6a67d64409c4a30dadbd5eade7.jpg?hash=p9A8Vtxl27 "[Hearth.com] Lumber Prices")
Lol looks like the same joke here that’s been going around. When I was in California a few weeks ago I saw huge apartment complex’s being built with LOTS of lumber and I wandered how the could afford to build in this cost;y time but then when you see that a 365 square foot studio apartment rents for $2000 a month there maybe the developers figure they’ll still do good after all.
![[Hearth.com] Lumber Prices](https://www.hearth.com/talk/data/attachments/278/278845-770e4568d6e120a0ec76668f6e1aa114.jpg?hash=b8laMw_ZnT "[Hearth.com] Lumber Prices")
Material expense is insane. A local home builder here has 34 homes to build right now. Unbelievable. I can only imagine what it will be like to build for people with that disregard to money
tlc1976
Minister of Fire
We are having problems getting steel at work. 6” tubing is on back order till November, so we are getting pipe and having to weld on stub ends of the tubing we have so hoses will fit. Having to use 12 ga steel since we can’t get 11 ga. Can’t get perforated plate so we are having to laser out our own. Been there 22 years and while steel price hikes are normal, I’ve never seen actual shortages till now.
SpaceBus
Minister of Fire
Yesterday it fell below $1,000/mbf. I don't think it will ever go back down to $300/mbf, but we will see.
Just in time worldwide supply chains work until they do not. its standard supply and demand economics. The little guys get hurt but the big guys rarely do as they have ways of passing on the short term cost increases.
All the big lumber companies were talking in public that they were not going to expand and it would take a couple of years to get new capacity on line. In the meantime many were planning to put new capacity on line. I have seen several major announcements of added capacity of late. At some point demand will slow down and the prices will drop until the highest cost producers drop out. Then the US firms will start screaming that they need new tariffs on Canada.
The public's collective memory/education really s**cks for basic economics. The media does not help, they want eyeballs and the way to get them is to turn everything into a crisis.
All the big lumber companies were talking in public that they were not going to expand and it would take a couple of years to get new capacity on line. In the meantime many were planning to put new capacity on line. I have seen several major announcements of added capacity of late. At some point demand will slow down and the prices will drop until the highest cost producers drop out. Then the US firms will start screaming that they need new tariffs on Canada.
The public's collective memory/education really s**cks for basic economics. The media does not help, they want eyeballs and the way to get them is to turn everything into a crisis.
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No I don't see that either. Typically Western Canada has been the lowest cost producer for lumber, BC in particular has been increasing stumpage rates, and every time logging rights change hands to another company the government claws back a small portion of that land for conservation. Increased costs for logging, and reduced land area to log are not conducive to lower lumber prices, add to that increased fuel prices from higher oil prices and a carbon tax on the fuel and costs jump up again.
I think it is more a case of supply chain disruption and recovery. There has been a surge in demand now but things are adjusting. The report today was the wholesale lumber prices are dropping.
