EV are approaching one third of new car registrations in England

[begreen]

And what about the 100,000+ flights per day? They aren't an issue?

Good point. It's happening on the planes and boats level. Major airlines have been investing in alternative fuels and short hop electic planes are being tested for FAA certification now. The marine industry made a major change from high sulfur fuels a few years ago. Hybrid power systems are being employed in several modern craft like ferry fleets, etc.

That said, we the consumer are part of the problem as long as we insist on items with long ship distance. Buy local as much as possible.

 

[Newbie78]

The green room is full of fairies, rainbows, and unicorns.

 

[EbS-P]

The green room is full of fairies, rainbows, and unicorns.

don’t tell my kids they will want all their rooms painted green!

 

[woodgeek]

It doesn't work as well as you'd think. You can't simply tax fossil fuels (or carbon emissions) without providing alternative infrastructure for consumers to switch to.

Canada is a prime example, we've had an annually increasing carbon tax since 2017. The result is our goods cost more due to increased shipping costs, it costs more to drive places, and more to heat homes. Carbon leakage is a real thing and pushes industries to other nations. Yet our EV and PHEV adoption lags behind almost every other developed nation.

In about a years time our carbon tax will likely be repealed.

Totally agree. There is a break in the environmentalism movement between the 'degrowth' and 'growth' approaches to greentech.

If carbon taxes 'worked' I guess they'd be OK, but I haven't seen any evidence that they do outside of an econ professor's head.

There is also the real fact that they don't work politically at all, any more than Carter telling Americans to put on a cardigan in the 1970s.

I am in the 'growth' camp: greentech will scale when it is cheaper and better than fossil tech. I AM in favor however, in situations where such scaling is believed to be inevitable, of using govt incentives to move that along. So long as they are smart incentives.

 

[stoveliker]

So, update for The Netherlands:
In 2024 new car sales market share was
full EV was 34.7%,
hybrid was 41.9%,
gas 21.9%
with the rest 1.0% diesel and 0.6% lpg.

 

[woodgeek]

Update for the US:

U.S. share of electric and hybrid vehicle sales reached a record in the third quarter - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

BEVs hit 9% in 2024Q3.
HEVs hit 11%
PHEVs are only 2%

The BEV, HEV and total numbers are all record highs in 2024Q3, contra media coverage to the contrary.

BEVs are doing much higher % in the luxury segment, so they are not going anywhere as far as the makers are concerned.

December numbers are not compiled yet, but the sales numbers Jan through November have BEV+PHEV at 10.4% of new car sales, or 9% higher than the same period in 2023.

The latest US EV sales and charger growth – in numbers

The Joint Office today reported record-breaking numbers for US EV sales and public charger availability in November 2024. Let's break it down.

electrek.co

 

[stoveliker]

Nice.
The only gripe I have is

BEVs are doing much higher % in the luxury segment,

Market penetration would (also in the US) be much higher if more lower end models were available. And it would help get some of the older (more polluting?) gas cars off the road. (Though the cumulative CO2 emissions of heavy luxury models might be larger than that of the smaller cars, even if their other pollution may be less.)

Anyway, increases here are good.
But these numbers (75% BEV+hybrid (of both kinds.,.)) versus 22% (which is skewed to higher numbers because only Q3 while the 75% is full year!) shows how far behind the US is.
And I'm not even having numbers from China ...

 

[woodgeek]

Nice.
The only gripe I have is


Market penetration would (also in the US) be much higher if more lower end models were available. And it would help get some of the older (more polluting?) gas cars off the road. (Though the cumulative CO2 emissions of heavy luxury models might be larger than that of the smaller cars, even if their other pollution may be less.)

Anyway, increases here are good.
But these numbers (75% BEV+hybrid (of both kinds.,.)) versus 22% (which is skewed to higher numbers because only Q3 while the 75% is full year!) shows how far behind the US is.
And I'm not even having numbers from China ...

You are welcome to have your gripe. But new tech always leads in the luxury segment first.

I think the last decade in the US has shown that when the Feds give incentives to EVs, the prices flatten out, and when the incentives are removed, the prices drop. So the after incentive price has been going down pretty steadily.

It is def true that the makers have decided that the US buyer hates small cars, and so we have all these mini-SUV or CUV things, while in the EU and China there are a ton of compact EVs. LEAF, Bolt and model 3 are exceptions to this rule.. all were strong sellers.

I could argue that part of that is US fuel regulation structures (versus gas tax approach in EU/China) making bigger vehicles easier and more profitable in the US.

Bottom line, I think that EV adoption in the US is being successfully driven by EPA and California fleet mpg requirements (and credit trading). Thanks Obama. EV rebates per se don't do much (except perturb sale prices and maker profits) with maybe a little showing up in buyers hands.

The US is a petro-state. We are doing OK compared to other petrostates (except Norway). In non-petrostates cost of fuel is doing most of the driving of adoption. High electricity cost is holding it back.

 

[stoveliker]

The gripe was not with you, but with the situation.

I do not know how general your first sentence is; after all Tesla, Leaf, and Bolt were the first succesful BEVs - suggesting (though maybe Tesla is considered luxury?) that the smaller segment can in fact lead. Of course the economics are different for the mfgs.

Yes, thanks fleet reqs!

 

[EatenByLimestone]

Out of curiosity, does the average number of miles driven in each country figure into EV adoption? If the average Englishman drives the equivalent of 7000 miles every year and the average US citizen drives 14000, it seems the driving habits and appropriateness of the technology might differ. Is it really an apples to apples comparison?

 

[stoveliker]

Surely a valid point.

Though I believe that the majority of people also in the US live in sufficiently dense population centers to not make a big difference with Europe. (As in 50% on the coasts - but there are also significantly dense population centers more in the center of the country.)

Even if one cuts the number (75% BEV+hybrid!) in half, the US still lags behind that growth curve a lot.

 

[stoveliker]

first google hit is a U. Mich. number:

U.S. Cities Factsheet

Large, densely populated, and bustling with activity, cities are cultural and economic centers, providing employment, leisure, and educational opportunities. Energy and resources flow in and out to support population and infrastructure. However, there is increasing attention on the environmental...

css.umich.edu

83% live in urban areas in the US.

 

[woodgeek]

GM and Ford both reported strong sales in Q4, and strongly higher EV sales:

Ford and General Motors Report a Sales Surge, Especially for E.V.s

The two big automakers said 2024 sales were up by 4 percent thanks to big increases in the final quarter.

www.nytimes.com

Both makers' fraction of EVs sold is now up to about 6% of their total units in Q4.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

Even within families, usage differs an awful lot. My wife predominantly drives 10-20 miles a day to work and back, grocery store, etc. I do 40k miles a year. One would work fine for her. Not so much for me. I know enough to let her pick her own vehicle though!

 

[woodgeek]

Even within families, usage differs an awful lot. My wife predominantly drives 10-20 miles a day to work and back, grocery store, etc. I do 40k miles a year. One would work fine for her. Not so much for me. I know enough to let her pick her own vehicle though!

How many miles per day for you? Is that 40k/200 working days = 200 miles/day?

 

[EbS-P]

EV rebates per se don't do much (except perturb sale prices and maker profits) with maybe a little showing up in buyers hands.

I think the tax credits were the deciding factor for some. And probably not an insignificant number. Yes they will sell without them, but they made the EV cost competitive with the ICE.

I don’t see the adoption rate increasing In 2025. One question I have is if the tax credit is repealed this year and you received it at time of purchase would you then have to pay it back with your 2025 tax bill?

Even within families, usage differs an awful lot. My wife predominantly drives 10-20 miles a day to work and back, grocery store, etc. I do 40k miles a year. One would work fine for her. Not so much for me. I know enough to let her pick her own vehicle though!

How many hours a day is your truck parked at the same location and how far is the nearest DC fast charger to that location?

 

[weee123]

Im in the same boat as @EatenByLimestone when it comes to range with EVs. I will occasionally drive 200 a day (100 to and 100 back) to different jobsites. I’ve read that it is best to keep an EV battery in the 20-80% area like on my iphone to have greater battery longevity. That wouldn’t be possible for me with those trips especially in the winter.

I’m also in the conundrum that I drive a paid off F150 and when I do drive that far my contractor pays for my fuel. So my fuel costs per month are far lower than a monthly payment on an EV. I wouldn’t be able to trade my F150 in either because I need a truck for my own personal use. An F150 lightning isn’t practical for me cost wise or capability wise (especially hauling capacity).

 

[EatenByLimestone]

How many miles per day for you? Is that 40k/200 working days = 200 miles/day?

Per year. We shrunk our service area, so it’s trending downwards. I bet I’m probably 30-35k last year.

 

[EbS-P]

Im in the same boat as @EatenByLimestone when it comes to range with EVs. I will occasionally drive 200 a day (100 to and 100 back) to different jobsites. I’ve read that it is best to keep an EV battery in the 20-80% area like on my iphone to have greater battery longevity. That wouldn’t be possible for me with those trips especially in the winter.

I’m also in the conundrum that I drive a paid off F150 and when I do drive that far my contractor pays for my fuel. So my fuel costs per month are far lower than a monthly payment on an EV. I wouldn’t be able to trade my F150 in either because I need a truck for my own personal use. An F150 lightning isn’t practical for me cost wise or capability wise (especially hauling capacity).

would you consider adding an EV to reduce mileage on the truck you can’t live without. Not every trip needs a truck. I think that’s where I’m at. I can’t replace all my ICE vehicles but an EV does fine for a majority of my annual miles.
And anyone making regular short trips less than 10 minutes needs to look at how these new direct injected motors are holding up when driven like that.

 

[woodgeek]

I think the tax credits were the deciding factor for some. And probably not an insignificant number. Yes they will sell without them, but they made the EV cost competitive with the ICE.

I don’t see the adoption rate increasing In 2025. One question I have is if the tax credit is repealed this year and you received it at time of purchase would you then have to pay it back with your 2025 tax bill?

How many hours a day is your truck parked at the same location and how far is the nearest DC fast charger to that location?

The last time credits were repealed the MSRP was dropped and incentives were increased by almost the same amount, and except for a little blip when it was in the news, sales didn't see much effect. When they were brought back, sales picked up for awhile, then flatlined (and MSRP/incentives has held more steady). IOW, rebates pull demand forward in the short term when they are added (for some fence-sitters), but in the long term don't do much, bc the makers just adjust their prices.

Of course, paying the makers more per unit does help with rollout and the transition.

If prices drop when the incentive is repealed, sales will do fine. If they don't they won't. We will see.

IMO credits claimed before April 2025 (on 2024 taxes) are safe. Esp if point of sale. The new admin says they want the repeal to cover 2025.... as in its already to late to take them. But I have not read of dealers balking at doing point of sale rebates in January.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

I think the tax credits were the deciding factor for some. And probably not an insignificant number. Yes they will sell without them, but they made the EV cost competitive with the ICE.

I don’t see the adoption rate increasing In 2025. One question I have is if the tax credit is repealed this year and you received it at time of purchase would you then have to pay it back with your 2025 tax bill?

How many hours a day is your truck parked at the same location and how far is the nearest DC fast charger to that location?

It depends what I’m doing that day, if I’m doing a pest control route, I’m driving to a new house every 20-30 minutes. If I’m helping some guys seal a house, I may be there 4 hours.

If I’m doing my garage door stuff my average stop is probably 45 minutes to an hour. Putting a door in can take hours though.

I’m not sure where the fast chargers are located.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

would you consider adding an EV to reduce mileage on the truck you can’t live without. Not every trip needs a truck. I think that’s where I’m at. I can’t replace all my ICE vehicles but an EV does fine for a majority of my annual miles.
And anyone making regular short trips less than 10 minutes needs to look at how these new direct injected motors are holding up when driven like that.

I have considered it. When looking at fleet maintenance costs I looked seriously at the down time my trucks have getting oil changes, tires, brakes, etc.

The pest route guys could get by without a truck. The wildlife guys can’t, each wildlife truck carries a 32 foot ladder, sometimes a sheet metal brake, saws, etc depending on what damage the animal made that needs to be fixed. Sometimes they are towing trailers to hold the tools.

Garage door side, my 1/2 ton is squatted. I can’t tow my 16 foot trailer anymore with the truck loaded. It’s all the springs I have to carry. The ladders and tools for garage doors don’t weigh that much.

 

[stoveliker]

The point of averages is that there will always be outliers that need a different solution from what is sufficient for the majority.
A mileage of 40k per year is not that common, given the average of 13k per year.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

100%! I put a sub panel in my garage, I could easily wire up a charger should my wife decide to go electric next time she upgrades her car.

 

[Duncan]

The Uk stats, while true, reflect our tax incentives. Middle and senior employees can often get their company to supply a leased car. We don’t own it, but we get to use it for 3 or 4 years. We pay tax on the car based on its value and efficiency. Right now we pay very little tax on company EVs (and a lot on ICE cars) So It’s companies that are leasing the EVs here, not private motorists buying them with their own cash.

In a few years there will be a glut of 3/4 year old EVs on the second hand market. I guess that will be the real tipping point.