Dow 40K - Wow

[bogieb]

Haven't even looked at mine yet. Whatever. I don't usually shuffle stocks. I do have a small amount still in a money market holding account so i might go see if there is anything I want to pick up.

I could kick myself as I renewed a couple of CDs last month and opted for the 6 month maturities as that had the highest interest rate. Was thinking about going 1 year on at least 1 of them, but forgot about it when I renewed. I'll bet come December the offerings will be down. Oh well, them's the breaks.

 

[bigealta]

Haven't even looked at mine yet. Whatever. I don't usually shuffle stocks. I do have a small amount still in a money market holding account so i might go see if there is anything I want to pick up.

I could kick myself as I renewed a couple of CDs last month and opted for the 6 month maturities as that had the highest interest rate. Was thinking about going 1 year on at least 1 of them, but forgot about it when I renewed. I'll bet come December the offerings will be down. Oh well, them's the breaks.

You should look into buying Fed t bills & notes. You can get them as short as 1 week at a fidelity or schwab or the like. no fee to buy. Interest will probably be a bit higher than your CDs. Gives much more flexibility and security.

 

[begreen]

The market appears frothy right now, many stocks are making fairly significant movements on small catalysts. I've slowly sold off all my stocks in the last couple months, dumping the last few Friday morning. I'll probably dabble in commodity futures or bitcoin in the next few months, but as a whole the risk/reward doesn't appeal to me for equities at the present time.

Exactly. Noah Smith wrote today:

1. Nobody really knows why stocks go up or down, even though everyone pretends to know.
2. By the time you write about a stock price movement, whatever happened is already fully priced in. So stocks are just as likely to bounce back as they are to keep moving in the same direction.
3. Stocks go up and down a lot, so you should zoom out to get perspective on how important a stock price movement really is.

The U.S. economy is not crashing

But even so, it's probably time for the Fed to start cutting rates.

substack.com

The CNN Fear and Greed index shows this churn.

 

[hearthon]

When the fed cuts rates shxt will probably blow up. Historical everytime they cut the market goes down quite a bit.

 

[ABMax24]

Exactly. Noah Smith wrote today:

1. Nobody really knows why stocks go up or down, even though everyone pretends to know.
2. By the time you write about a stock price movement, whatever happened is already fully priced in. So stocks are just as likely to bounce back as they are to keep moving in the same direction.
3. Stocks go up and down a lot, so you should zoom out to get perspective on how important a stock price movement really is.

The U.S. economy is not crashing

But even so, it's probably time for the Fed to start cutting rates.

substack.com

The CNN Fear and Greed index shows this churn.

View attachment 328805

On some level it's all speculation. I guess that's the game isn't it? Trying to find something of value before everyone else does.

I follow the VIX as much as anything, and it sure jumped this last week.

 

[ABMax24]

Historical everytime they cut the market goes down quite a bit.

Generally the opposite is true. Low interest rates have an inflationary effect on the stock market, high interest rates have a deflationary effect.