Don't Count on Pellet Prices Going Down

[tinkabranc]

We are still trying to decide if we should purchase a second pellet stove or
install a gas freestanding for the opposite end of the house where the current stove
does not quite reach. We have NG furnace in the house already.

As of now, pellets are cheaper for us than gas but if the prices continue to increase this
savings will be upside down.

 

[roninnb]

At todays oil prices....I could eat up 400 dollars a ton(even though I dont want to!!)...and STILL save 600-700 a season.....

Pellets at $400 a ton are $2 for 10 pounds.

10 pounds of pellets contains approx 80,000 net BTU, some say 75,000 when adjusted for moisture.

Heating oil at $3.50 a gallon contains about 138,000 BTU. That means oil is somewhat cheaper per BTU...

17.5 pounds of pellets would be $3.50 and would have approximately 140,000 net BTU. Efficiency aside, $400/ton and $3.50/gal would be about the cost per BTU.

 

[MainePellethead]

At todays oil prices....I could eat up 400 dollars a ton(even though I dont want to!!)...and STILL save 600-700 a season.....

Pellets at $400 a ton are $2 for 10 pounds.

10 pounds of pellets contains approx 80,000 net BTU, some say 75,000 when adjusted for moisture.

Heating oil at $3.50 a gallon contains about 138,000 BTU. That means oil is somewhat cheaper per BTU...

17.5 pounds of pellets would be $3.50 and would have approximately 140,000 net BTU. Efficiency aside, $400/ton and $3.50/gal would be about the cost per BTU.

I know what your saying....but when you get beyond the BTU...as for my house anyway....

I'm burning 2 tons a season..."if" it went to $400 ton....is that not 800 bucks?

I would normally burn 500 gallons(3.50 gal.) a season(sometimes more)....is that not $1750?

Is that not a $950 savings with Pellets? My light bill rose about 13 dollars to run the pellet stove for the month so knock off $100 for cost of electricity.

BTU or not...the math is simple....I keep my house toasty for much less than oil...and even at 400 a ton it would be much less at current oil prices.

 

[mullet]

Hey folks, I have been reading this forum for a little while and there is some great info here, thank you very much. I just moved to VA about 1.5 years ago from Florida due to the hurricane situation. I had no idea about propane heat or fireplaces and so on. So after buying a house 2,500 Sq ft 2 story. Everyone was telling me be great full that your new house has a propane furness, so I was ok great we are set. Well guess what with the thermostat set on 69F I was going through about 125 to 135 gallons of propane a month @ $2.99 per gallon as the introductory price for the first year as a new customer, that will go up to $3.39 per gallon after the year is up. So for about $400.00 a month in propane and a $125.00 for the electric heat pump ( upstairs unit to try and offset the propane furness downstairs ) that sums up about $500.00 to $525.00 a month in the winter. I went down to the local fireplace store after some research on the interweb got a Avalon Astoria and a ton of lignetics pellets which I still have 19 bags (starting feb 12) still in the garage that I am hoping will get me through march. I could not be happier, I love my stove and I think its better then sliced bread.

As far as prices going up. I have very little knowledge of the pellet market but the ole saying is "if there is a demand......". Fuel (propane) IMO is going to get nasty with prices.

my 2 cents

BTW mullet is a fish from the gulf of mexico where I lived. LOL

 

[PutnamJct]

I'm looking to buy a pellet stove but after reading this thread I'm starting to reconsider. What's the situation like in NY, Long Island area.

There are a few Islanders on the board who can hopefully give you a local picture.
Up in Westchester/Putnam there is substantially more supply then there has been in previous years. Last year some of the dealers up here were rationing by only selling 6-10 bags per week per customer. Now they have 100's of tons stacked and ready to go. There are also a lot more places carrying them then in previous years.

 

[roninnb]

I know what your saying....but when you get beyond the BTU...as for my house anyway....

I'm burning 2 tons a season..."if" it went to $400 ton....is that not 800 bucks?

I would normally burn 500 gallons(3.50 gal.) a season(sometimes more)....is that not $1750?

Is that not a $950 savings with Pellets? My light bill rose about 13 dollars to run the pellet stove for the month so knock off $100 for cost of electricity.

BTU or not...the math is simple....I keep my house toasty for much less than oil...and even at 400 a ton it would be much less at current oil prices.

Same applies to my house. If I had to heat this place with electricity or oil, I'd have a leak in my wallet all winter.

 

[RedRanger]

I'm looking to buy a pellet stove but after reading this thread I'm starting to reconsider. What's the situation like in NY, Long Island area.

Yes, now I am reconsidering-and I just finished posting about the comparisions between pellets and propane.

Eric makes some good points-eg. on the northern part of this island the last sawmill is shutting down, and that is leaving the pulp mill kinda in limbo. You can be sure that pulp mill will be scrambling for chips,so we already know that there is no way-in-hell we will ever see a pellet manufacturing site anywhere near there. And that pulp mill probably still wont survive by bidding higher and higher for chips. A Very Viscious Circle Indeed!!

@as a side note,a recent poll just released said that 68% of Canadians were willing to use the "cutoff of oil to the US if the new government insists on re-opening nafta. Even though we are the best of friends,I agree-the logic is simple enough (you take away,we take away), And this country is only second to Saudia Arabia in proven oil reserves through out the world. Just goes to show that it is better to work together,rather than isolation.

 

[MainePellethead]

I'm looking to buy a pellet stove but after reading this thread I'm starting to reconsider. What's the situation like in NY, Long Island area.

Yes, now I am reconsidering-and I just finished posting about the comparisions between pellets and propane.

Eric makes some good points-eg. on the northern part of this island the last sawmill is shutting down, and that is leaving the pulp mill kinda in limbo. You can be sure that pulp mill will be scrambling for chips,so we already know that there is no way-in-hell we will ever see a pellet manufacturing site anywhere near there. And that pulp mill probably still wont survive by bidding higher and higher for chips. A Very Viscious Circle Indeed!!

@as a side note,a recent poll just released said that 68% of Canadians were willing to use the "cutoff of oil to the US if the new government insists on re-opening nafta. Even though we are the best of friends,I agree-the logic is simple enough (you take away,we take away), And this country is only second to Saudia Arabia in proven oil reserves through out the world. Just goes to show that it is better to work together,rather than isolation.

Do you really think that the Irvins will stop sending their oil to America? ha! America has no problem with Canada....its Mexico thats the bigger issue.....is Canada sending us their people to avoid paying for them in their homeland so they send them to America for US to foot the bill. Theres many that come to this great land and are very very hard workers and Canadians are one of that group of people.
The fact is....we have PLENTY of oil potential here in the States...theres enough oil under Colorodo to power New England for 250 solid years....and thats just one potential. The problem is....others are drilling....we are not(at least for now, Exxon is pushing this issue). So....we let Canada, Saudi, etc., etc do the drilling while certain groups wont let us drill here because their worried about the three eyed two leg, 3 toe nail spotted mole than they are about an elderly person possibly freezing to death. We are paying dearly for not drilling more....I firmly believe that....in the long term...the energy issue is going to come back and bite the oil producing countries in the hiney. Think about it....just with heating alone.....if 50 million people takes themselves off the heating oil supply...that will have a ripple effect. It already is. If America slips toward recession it effects ALL, not just America. Thats why China and others dont want the U.S. slowing down. But we are...and that includes oil....SUV sales are down.....consumption is down for the first time in years(5%)....energy independence unfortunately involves oil as well as alternative fuels and until America ups the anty and starts more drilling we will always be dependent. I think its time for a good old fashioned trade war....take one week and not buy one single imported product....there...now take that. teat for tat....but bottom line....the world NEEDS America...

 

[kbilling]

For what it's worth, I came across this article on the Canadian pulp wood supply outlook for 2008 after reading some of this thread and looking for some info on the local supply. Thought you guys might like wrestling with it. :cheese:

 

[kinsmanstoves]

Got to remember that from the first pull to start the chain saw to the pellets getting to your local store fuel oil played a large role every part. Yes saw dust went up but so did diesel and electric.

I would stock up early if you can. Use that TAX check for something other than a vacation.