Time and heat will change the chemical nature of the combustible, especially if it's a cellulose based product. I've read that paper exposed to high heat over time will start to yellow at 157F. It will combust at as low as 258F.
One very important point they bring up in the paper listed below is that the ignition point depends a lot on the size of the specimen. Sawdust, wood chips, frayed drywall paper edges are much more vulnerable to issues. I know of a local fellow that lost part of his house because the ceiling support box was not scrupulously vacuumed out of wood shavings that fell from the roof hole cut. These shavings flash ignited at few years later. Fortunately they noticed the fire early and the fire dept. did a great job of putting the fire out. Still it was a mess and a very expensive repair to bring the house back into shape.
Read this peer reviewed doc for some sobering info on pyrolysis:
(broken link removed to http://www.doctorfire.com/low_temp_wood1.pdf)
"In terms of safe design and safe practices for the installation of heat-producing devices adjacent to wood surfaces, it should not be a new or surprising piece of information that 250ºC would represent an extremely hazardous condition and that 77ºC (170F), in fact, must not be exceeded if the heating is prolonged. Already in 1959 UL17 issued this recommendation: “As a limitation on the temperature to which wood may be heated for long periods of time from a standpoint of fire prevention, many authorities indicate that 90ºF above room temperature (approximately 80ºF) normally prevailing in habitable spaces is a safe maximum and one which incorporates a reasonable margin of safety.” Since 80 + 90 = 170ºF, the temperature cited in the 1959 UL recommendation is identical to the one derived in the present study. But there is an important difference in that, in our study, the 77ºC (170F) value has a zero safety factor, whereas the UL value of 77ºC, based on much earlier research, was intended to include some positive, but unspecified, safety factor. In any efforts to establish an “allowable” temperature, when considering data on temperatures at which ignition can occur, a safety factor must be included to ascertain that ignition will not occur, rather than will-just-barely occur."