Where are you seeing the 30 burns 50% longer than the 20? Only looks to be a couple hours more.
I don't know on what the "average heating time" is based.
The burn time on low is 30 hrs for the 30.2 models and 20 hrs for the 20(.x?) models. And in those hours the heating output is essentially constant. I'd say the last 3 hrs or so of these times the output dropped off a bit for me. ("feeling", no data that I collected).
(Of course burning at a higher output (hotter) decreases those times. (I recently did my end-of season burn as hot as I could without overheating the chimney. It was 15" fir (rather than 17 or 18"), i.e. low BTU, and I got a solid 8 hrs out of it running as hot as I could. )
The similar output on low (11,340 BTU/hr vs 11,9something BTU/hr) means that the energy contained in the fuel load is dispensed into the room with similar speed. Having a 150% larger firebox (3 cu ft vs 2 cu ft) means one has a 150% burn time. So 20 hrs to 30 hrs.
I can attest to the fact that the 30 models do indeed burn 30 hrs. In fact, I've run it 36-37 hrs before the cat dropped out of the active temperature when the fuel was gone.
The thing about not getting the stove hot enough is *not* applicable in the sense you are talking about.
The stove is *designed* to be able to run "dirty" in the firebox. No flame, just smoldering. The catalyst then combusts those half-burned gases, keeping the chimney from dirtying up too much.
As long as you keep the catalyst in the active temperature regime (giving it enough fuel, i.e. smoke to combust), you'll be fine. This has nothing to do with the size of the stove.
It has everything to do with the draft in your chimney; too short a chimney does not create enough suction, so not enough air flow, so not enough smoke-flow to the catalyist, and then it can't keep itself warm enough to combust those gases, leading to dirty chimneys.
Your lowest point you can run therefore depends on the chimney (and the tightness of the home). It is that point that gives you the lowest possible output for your home. And for a chimney system within BK specs, that'll result in 20 or 30 hr burns depending on the model.
Hence our earlier insistence on chimney questions.