Circus
Feeling the Heat
8 years ago my fridge cost $1000 minus a $300 tax credit. 7 1/2 years ago I bought it after the credits expired for $600.
$9 heating and electric bill combined
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8 years ago my fridge cost $1000 minus a $300 tax credit. 7 1/2 years ago I bought it after the credits expired for $600.
Woodgeek, agree with both. When my BIL got his contract I argued that the gov't would break it but it is with the utility, so I can't see that happening. The installers are making a lot of money and cannot be avoided. Both the contract and the home insurance requires a registered installer.
jebatty, we agree that the windows are the big loss and I have already upgraded mine less than 10 years ago to the best so that's not going to happen again for a long time. I could get more heat gain by painting my floors and walls black but that is not going to happen either. Passive solar is great when it's sunny and that's all I can count on. The masonry heater is to replace the wood stove and the advantage to me is that it is more of a continuous heat. As you stated, it's much slower to heat up but our stove is on from fall to spring so that's no change. If the sun comes out, we can open a few windows in the winter, no big deal. Since I am wanting installation on a flat roof, there are extra costs for racking. I am disappointing that the racking angle is permanent. I'd love to change the angle every spring and fall but not sure it can be done without rigging up something. It seems counter intuitive to me that they all suggest an angle of 30* but the racking is 15* but they will order 25* if I want it. Troubling.
I will not get into the financials again. We disagree and there's no use in discussing it. If you were right on the financials, there would be solar on every home that it would fit on. It bothers me that the bank rate for a solar loan is much higher than for a car. If someone defaults, a car can be sold in hours, over 1/2 the cost of solar is labor which is gone on day one. It may turn out that the deciding factor for/against might be the fact that I get the sales taxes back and the depreciation rate allowed has now risen to 50%, so very fast write-down at the start.
jebatty, we agree that the windows are the big loss and I have already upgraded mine less than 10 years ago to the best so that's not going to happen again for a long time. I could get more heat gain by painting my floors and walls black but that is not going to happen either. Passive solar is great when it's sunny and that's all I can count on. The masonry heater is to replace the wood stove and the advantage to me is that it is more of a continuous heat. As you stated, it's much slower to heat up but our stove is on from fall to spring so that's no change. If the sun comes out, we can open a few windows in the winter, no big deal. Since I am wanting installation on a flat roof, there are extra costs for racking. I am disappointing that the racking angle is permanent. I'd love to change the angle every spring and fall but not sure it can be done without rigging up something. It seems counter intuitive to me that they all suggest an angle of 30* but the racking is 15* but they will order 25* if I want it. Troubling.
I will not get into the financials again. We disagree and there's no use in discussing it. If you were right on the financials, there would be solar on every home that it would fit on. It bothers me that the bank rate for a solar loan is much higher than for a car. If someone defaults, a car can be sold in hours, over 1/2 the cost of solar is labor which is gone on day one. It may turn out that the deciding factor for/against might be the fact that I get the sales taxes back and the depreciation rate allowed has now risen to 50%, so very fast write-down at the start.
OK, rec'd a good (good, as in quality) quote this afternoon. One other one expected soon but the $$ and details will be very similar.
10KW system mounted on a flat roof and supported by racking at 15* angle. The racking and ballast add about $2K to the system but the advantage is that there are no holes drilled into the roof. 40 panels at 250 watts each with enphase microinverters, all installation, racking, all permits, all electrical, all hook-ups, software to view instant performance - complete turn-key system is US$31K. The only things to add are 13% taxes (refunded but see note), insurance which is under $200/yr and a $5/monthly charge from the utility for an accounting fee plus cost of borrowing $$. Yes, they sell systems that are a few thousand cheaper but the difference is the guarantee. For $2.5K less, I can get a cheaper system with an inverter warranty of only 12 years, no software and no warranty on labor. For the difference, the decision is easy for me.
The gov't program is guaranteed to pay me US$.35 KW for 20 yrs. The average income based on other 1 yr old identical systems & installations is US$3,700. per yr. (based on 2013 numbers) which means a payback, before cost of insurance and bank loan of 8.3 years. As soon as you add the cost of borrowing at the quoted rate of 6.5%, the payback jumps to 13 yrs. based on the numbers I get.
If I was getting the same rate that the utility is charging me for power and if I have to borrow the money to buy the system, the payback is unworkable.
So, going back to my original post in this thread "If it wasn't for gov't subsidy, the panels would never pay for themselves.", I am correct for our location in Southern Ontario. The quote rec'd is just over $3./KW fully installed, which is well below the $4. said to be a fair price. I am not allowed to install them myself to qualify for the rebate plan.
I have not included the 13% taxes in any of this info. The taxes must be paid but eventually (many months/yrs later) they get returned to me as a rebate on your taxes that are payable in income from the panels. IOW, under the gov't plan, you are creating a solar power small business so that you get the taxes back but then, you must pay taxes on the income it generates AFTER all of the deductions and expenses are covered. Cost of borrowing money is an expense. The downside is that once you have paid it off, you are taxed at about 30% of the income generated by the panels. In addition to that, there is a lot of paperwork to remit quarterly returns to the gov't. For simplicity, I have not included the 30% taxes on the income into the calculation because it was already such a bad business investment if you look at it strictly as an investment. If you want to argue that I can't make money by investing in something else, I have removed that from the equation. The cost of money is real, it does not grow on trees.
I have not made a decision on whether we will proceed or not. I can get a loan for less than 6.5% if I remortgage or use a line of credit with the house as collateral. The interest rates are guaranteed to rise within a year or two. So, even if I can get a lower rate today, it will likely be at least 6.5% avg. over the lifespan of the loan. The 6.5% is a realistic number to work with. If I just got a loan for the equipment, the 6.5% will be fluctuating and will be much higher before the loan is paid off.
So, there are the numbers.
Can't say that I am overly surprised. I am not sure whether PV is something I want to invest in at this stage of my life. If I was 20 yrs. younger, the decision would be a lot easier.
10KW system mounted on a flat roof and supported by racking at 15* angle. The racking and ballast add about $2K to the system but the advantage is that there are no holes drilled into the roof. 40 panels at 250 watts each with enphase microinverters, all installation, racking, all permits, all electrical, all hook-ups, software to view instant performance - complete turn-key system is US$31K. The only things to add are 13% taxes (refunded but see note), insurance which is under $200/yr and a $5/monthly charge from the utility for an accounting fee plus cost of borrowing $$. Yes, they sell systems that are a few thousand cheaper but the difference is the guarantee. For $2.5K less, I can get a cheaper system with an inverter warranty of only 12 years, no software and no warranty on labor. For the difference, the decision is easy for me.
The gov't program is guaranteed to pay me US$.35 KW for 20 yrs. The average income based on other 1 yr old identical systems & installations is US$3,700. per yr. (based on 2013 numbers) which means a payback, before cost of insurance and bank loan of 8.3 years. As soon as you add the cost of borrowing at the quoted rate of 6.5%, the payback jumps to 13 yrs. based on the numbers I get.
If I was getting the same rate that the utility is charging me for power and if I have to borrow the money to buy the system, the payback is unworkable.
So, going back to my original post in this thread "If it wasn't for gov't subsidy, the panels would never pay for themselves.", I am correct for our location in Southern Ontario. The quote rec'd is just over $3./KW fully installed, which is well below the $4. said to be a fair price. I am not allowed to install them myself to qualify for the rebate plan.
I have not included the 13% taxes in any of this info. The taxes must be paid but eventually (many months/yrs later) they get returned to me as a rebate on your taxes that are payable in income from the panels. IOW, under the gov't plan, you are creating a solar power small business so that you get the taxes back but then, you must pay taxes on the income it generates AFTER all of the deductions and expenses are covered. Cost of borrowing money is an expense. The downside is that once you have paid it off, you are taxed at about 30% of the income generated by the panels. In addition to that, there is a lot of paperwork to remit quarterly returns to the gov't. For simplicity, I have not included the 30% taxes on the income into the calculation because it was already such a bad business investment if you look at it strictly as an investment. If you want to argue that I can't make money by investing in something else, I have removed that from the equation. The cost of money is real, it does not grow on trees.
I have not made a decision on whether we will proceed or not. I can get a loan for less than 6.5% if I remortgage or use a line of credit with the house as collateral. The interest rates are guaranteed to rise within a year or two. So, even if I can get a lower rate today, it will likely be at least 6.5% avg. over the lifespan of the loan. The 6.5% is a realistic number to work with. If I just got a loan for the equipment, the 6.5% will be fluctuating and will be much higher before the loan is paid off.
So, there are the numbers.
Can't say that I am overly surprised. I am not sure whether PV is something I want to invest in at this stage of my life. If I was 20 yrs. younger, the decision would be a lot easier.
Where2
Feeling the Heat
My father and I live in the same neighborhood in FL, and took the same course in solar energy in 2011. He too shares your sentiment about his present age versus payback, although he eagerly helped me with my PV install. If I own my house in this neighborhood as long as he has owned his (50+ years), I'll have invested in one new roof, five lawn mowers and my PV system will have paid itself off with interest. According to my Ted 1001, I used 12kWh today. According to Enphase, I generated 17.4kWh. After reading my electric meter tonight, my electric bill is presently hovering under $25 for my all electric house at 3 weeks into the billing cycle.
Huge difference in where you live. The identical installation as what I'm looking at generated .27 kw today and 2.3 kw so far in Feb. That's ridiculously zilch. AND, to top that awful result, today was a gloriously sunny day in S. Ont. My passive solar had our house in the high 70's while it was low 20's outside. That's the problem with sun, angles and latitude. We're on the same latitude as just north of Boston and just north of the CA/OR border.
Since it's a public site on Enphase, here's the link: https://enlighten.enphaseenergy.com/pv/public_systems/QhBp163210/grid/months
Since it's a public site on Enphase, here's the link: https://enlighten.enphaseenergy.com/pv/public_systems/QhBp163210/grid/months
Where2
Feeling the Heat
Thanks for the link, I counter your "zilch so far in February" with the 385kWh that system collected in January. My particular favorites are January 14, 21, and 28. Was there something particularly sunny about Tuesdays in Southern Ontario? Or did someone at the school pulling out a rake and clearing the panels on Monday evenings in January? Was January a particularly dry and snow free month? (I honestly don't know, but I would like to understand it better since my next system will be at 46°N latitude, and I will not be around to rake that system in the middle of winter).
Doug, with all of our exchanges, some comments which might help you make a wise decision.
1) Make sure you are getting the 250w Enphase inverters, not something less. And note that the 250w inverters have maximum continuous output of 240w, or 240 x 40 = 9,600 watts total system rather than 10,000 watts.
2)
When I look at $0.35kwh and annual income of $3,700, that equates to estimated annual production of 10,700 kwh. My system is rated at 6.89kw, but the microinverters nominally max at 6.5kw. My estimated production for my location is 9000 kwh/yr. Your system is nearly 50% larger than mine (9600 vs 6500) but estimated production is only about 20% higher. Check again your estimated annual production. Your local climate conditions may be less sunny on average than where I live, thus explaining the lower production.
3)
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My highest daily production so far was 34.6 kwh on Feb 11 with a sun zenith of a bit less than 30*. The system was at about 6,300 watts for almost 2 hours, and although the sky looked clear the satellite photo showed a haze over the entire region all day. February estimated monthly production is 22 kwh/day. So far in Feb I am at an average of a little above 25 kwh/day, which is making up some of the below average production in Nov - Jan.
1) Make sure you are getting the 250w Enphase inverters, not something less. And note that the 250w inverters have maximum continuous output of 240w, or 240 x 40 = 9,600 watts total system rather than 10,000 watts.
2)
When I look at $0.35kwh and annual income of $3,700, that equates to estimated annual production of 10,700 kwh. My system is rated at 6.89kw, but the microinverters nominally max at 6.5kw. My estimated production for my location is 9000 kwh/yr. Your system is nearly 50% larger than mine (9600 vs 6500) but estimated production is only about 20% higher. Check again your estimated annual production. Your local climate conditions may be less sunny on average than where I live, thus explaining the lower production.
3)
I am 66, my payback occurs in year 20, and I likely will not live long enough to see the payback. But payback is not the primary reason for my decision. Rather the reasons include: a) IMO doing the right thing, b) fixing the cost of my future electricity and hedging against inflation, c) reducing monthly cash expenses to allow better future planning.
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My highest daily production so far was 34.6 kwh on Feb 11 with a sun zenith of a bit less than 30*. The system was at about 6,300 watts for almost 2 hours, and although the sky looked clear the satellite photo showed a haze over the entire region all day. February estimated monthly production is 22 kwh/day. So far in Feb I am at an average of a little above 25 kwh/day, which is making up some of the below average production in Nov - Jan.
I am going to make a call to see if the system in the link is indeed covered in snow. As I stated, it was very sunny yesterday and it's been very sunny for quite a few days in Feb., so their numbers seem consistently odd. To be fair, I want real numbers and climbing up to the roof to shovel snow off is not something that should need to be done. I would not expect this at a school, just like I though my BIL was nuts to risk his life & limb climbing their roof to do it. We have had quite a lot of snow. There's a good foot + on the ground and the same on our roof. That should only cover 10% or so of the panel, since it is lifted off the roof by the racking.
jebatty, you are higher latitude than me, so anyone in our area should be getting more production in the winter but you may indeed have much less cloud and snow. They have not given me an exact model number for the Enphase Microinverters, but they are one per panel, so it must be 250w. The output is shown as 10.0kW DC to 8.6 kW AC but the cheaper system shows 10.0kW DC to 10.0kW AC. I questioned that and was told that the micro as opposed to the string inverters were superior. Still not clear to me as 10kW is a lot more than 8.6kW.
jebatty, you are higher latitude than me, so anyone in our area should be getting more production in the winter but you may indeed have much less cloud and snow. They have not given me an exact model number for the Enphase Microinverters, but they are one per panel, so it must be 250w. The output is shown as 10.0kW DC to 8.6 kW AC but the cheaper system shows 10.0kW DC to 10.0kW AC. I questioned that and was told that the micro as opposed to the string inverters were superior. Still not clear to me as 10kW is a lot more than 8.6kW.
Got an answer back. The PV installation I posted the link for is indeed covered in snow. The office can see much more detailed info than what is on-line.
BTW, my last electric bill for Jan. is $411. I heat the main area with wood but can't reach the large office area which is electric heat. Out of the $411, only $185 is actual electrical use, the rest is debt retirement, delivery charge (BS), taxes, etc. Part of that is to pay off the all of the rebates that have been given out to solar and wind projects.
That's what I meant when I posted that I was not wanting to be a hypocrite by having my neighbors pay for my solar system.
I had a discussion with myself (lol) yesterday about whether it would be something to consider going off grid. Unlike jebatty, if I reduce my electrical use down to essential only, I will still have a bill of $1200. per year, just to be hooked up The result of my conversation with myself was that it was a crazy idea. Beyond reasonable conservation, extreme cutbacks are not saving enough $$ vs. lifestyle changes. To go off-grid is not economically feasible.
BTW, my last electric bill for Jan. is $411. I heat the main area with wood but can't reach the large office area which is electric heat. Out of the $411, only $185 is actual electrical use, the rest is debt retirement, delivery charge (BS), taxes, etc. Part of that is to pay off the all of the rebates that have been given out to solar and wind projects.
That's what I meant when I posted that I was not wanting to be a hypocrite by having my neighbors pay for my solar system.
I had a discussion with myself (lol) yesterday about whether it would be something to consider going off grid. Unlike jebatty, if I reduce my electrical use down to essential only, I will still have a bill of $1200. per year, just to be hooked up
The result of my conversation with myself was that it was a crazy idea. Beyond reasonable conservation, extreme cutbacks are not saving enough $$ vs. lifestyle changes. To go off-grid is not economically feasible.
I've seen DC to AC derating, but I don't understand that exactly with regard to my system. 26 x 265w = 6.89kw DC on the panels. The Aurora micro-inverters are rated at 250w continuous AC, or 6.5 kw continuous for the array, and 96+% efficiency. So I suppose 265WDC output x 96% = 254WAC. Your output "10.0kW DC to 8.6 kW AC" varies quite a bit from my system. I don't know enough to explain this.
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