# Old Farmers Almanac forecast 15-16



## Michael6268 (Aug 25, 2015)

New edition of Old Farmers  Almanac forecast looks like a warmer to near normal for a lot of the country.
A few pockets of cold and snowy.


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## BrotherBart (Aug 29, 2015)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...almanac-forecast-for-cold-winter-in-the-east/


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## Michael6268 (Aug 29, 2015)

Sounds like we can forget about those pockets of cold and snowy if the meteorologists are right.
On the otherhand, they bash the Almanac as a joke and no merit, but most of their forecast are wrong too!


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## Wildo (Aug 30, 2015)

The almanac is accurate four out of five winters, versus the weather man at 1or to 2 of 5 winters.  Yet they get pooped on by the main stream.   I'll take those odds.


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## kennyp2339 (Aug 31, 2015)

Looking forward to an easier winter


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## begreen (Aug 31, 2015)

I haven't looked at it but read that the FA predicts a colder winter with heavy snowfalls in the NW. This is directly opposite of NOAA's current long range forecast. With a super-strong el Nino this year I will side with the weather scientists.


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## Michael6268 (Aug 31, 2015)

FA has about 1/3 Washington and Oregon (pacific side) cold and snowy.  Moving eastward, warm and dry.


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## Michael6268 (Aug 31, 2015)

Heres a pic


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## begreen (Aug 31, 2015)

Hard to accept with our waters getting so warm this year. Based on past strong el Nino events that would be a wrong prediction. We shall see.


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## Adios Pantalones (Sep 2, 2015)

Wildo said:


> The almanac is accurate four out of five winters, versus the weather man at 1or to 2 of 5 winters.  Yet they get pooped on by the main stream.   I'll take those odds.


This is absolutely untrue. They claim 80% accuracy, but even when you allow for their very general predictions and allow confirmation bias, they are as good as flipping a coin.


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## English BoB (Sep 24, 2015)

Iam raising the snow fence to six feet from four this winter, I have higher expectations


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## Wildo (Sep 26, 2015)

Adios Pantalones said:


> This is absolutely untrue. They claim 80% accuracy, but even when you allow for their very general predictions and allow confirmation bias, they are as good as flipping a coin.



Hey I didn't get an alert that somebody replied to my post.  Anyway they have been 100% accurate where I live since '09 and 83% accurate since '03.  Maybe not where you live but spot on for us.  NWS not even close at ~35%(60% since '09) and 2 of the last 3 years.


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## rowerwet (Sep 27, 2015)

Last year they were more wrong than anything, at least for around here.


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## semipro (Sep 27, 2015)

Reading more it sounds like the Almanac is right up there with astrology as far any objective credibility - secret algorithms and such.
A good related read here from Penn State: http://news.psu.edu/story/141165/2007/09/24/research/probing-question-farmers-almanac-accurate


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## Wildo (Sep 27, 2015)

I am talking about the winter forecast not the daily/weekly.

Anything that goes against the mainstream will be shunned until proven otherwise.


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## BrotherBart (Sep 27, 2015)

What they say for here. My cat could tell you this.

"The coldest period will be in the middle part of January, with other cold periods in mid- and late December and early February with the snowiest periods in late December, mid- and late January, and early and mid-February."


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## jharkin (Sep 27, 2015)

Wildo said:


> Hey I didn't get an alert that somebody replied to my post.  Anyway they have been 100% accurate where I live since '09 and 83% accurate since '03.  Maybe not where you live but spot on for us.  NWS not even close at ~35%(60% since '09) and 2 of the last 3 years.



Its easy to get it right every year when the predictions are about as specific as

"Winter will be colder than summer was"


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## Adios Pantalones (Sep 28, 2015)

Wildo said:


> Hey I didn't get an alert that somebody replied to my post.  Anyway they have been 100% accurate where I live since '09 and 83% accurate since '03.  Maybe not where you live but spot on for us.  NWS not even close at ~35%(60% since '09) and 2 of the last 3 years.



Really- was it cold and dry last winter for you? http://www.almanac.com/content/2014–2015-winter-weather-forecast-map-us


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## sportbikerider78 (Sep 28, 2015)

The last 2 winters here have been very cold with record snowfalls.  The odds are, it will be easier this year....hopefully.  But i'm in the snow belt here.


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## kennyp2339 (Sep 28, 2015)

Well, my curiosity got the best of me and I spent $6.99 on one of those damn books only to find out that BrotherBarts cat could tell me the same thing.


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## billb3 (Sep 28, 2015)

Adios Pantalones said:


> Really- was it cold and dry last winter for you? http://www.almanac.com/content/2014–2015-winter-weather-forecast-map-us




LOL, NOAA's forecast for New England Winter 2014-2015 was for warmer than usual and almost insignificantly wetter than usual.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/winter-outlook-2014-2015


At least the Farmer's Almanac was half right.


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## Wildo (Sep 28, 2015)

Adios Pantalones said:


> Really- was it cold and dry last winter for you? http://www.almanac.com/content/2014–2015-winter-weather-forecast-map-us




Yup,  cold -26 and only about 115'' of snow.


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## kennyp2339 (Sep 28, 2015)

billb3 said:


> LOL, NOAA's forecast for New England Winter 2014-2015 was for warmer than usual and almost insignificantly wetter than usual.
> https://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/winter-outlook-2014-2015
> 
> 
> At least the Farmer's Almanac was half right.


Did you ask the cat? LOL, I'm going keep that one going for a while, but in sincerity I really did spend the 6.99 on the book and I will be comparing there forecasts to whats happening on the dates mentioned, especially if there's a big storm in region 1 & 2.


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## billb3 (Sep 28, 2015)

kennyp2339 said:


> Did you ask the cat? LOL, I'm going keep that one going for a while, but in sincerity I really did spend the 6.99 on the book and I will be comparing there forecasts to whats happening on the dates mentioned, especially if there's a big storm in region 1 & 2.


Yeah but some people's cats talk out of both ends of  their digestive systems.


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## Adios Pantalones (Sep 29, 2015)

billb3 said:


> LOL, NOAA's forecast for New England Winter 2014-2015 was for warmer than usual and almost insignificantly wetter than usual.
> https://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/winter-outlook-2014-2015
> 
> 
> At least the Farmer's Almanac was half right.


The problem is "confirmation bias". We remember the parts that they get right and say "see- they get it right". They have 2 factors they predict in a region- they will more often than not be close on one of them by flipping a coin.

I'm not saying that long term NOAA predictions are great either.


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## Adios Pantalones (Sep 29, 2015)

Wildo said:


> Yup,  cold -26 and only about 115'' of snow.


Not sure where you are, but the coast can average less than half that, and that is just above average in the north. Sounds like they missed


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## Wildo (Sep 29, 2015)

I just went on the noaa website and we are listed at 95~ inches.  Not sure  where they measure  but that seems skimpy.  Maybe I was mistakenly using my fishing ruler.


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## Adios Pantalones (Sep 29, 2015)

That sounds dead average then, if you are in the part that gets the deepest snow


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## Wildo (Sep 29, 2015)

Here is a chart from 2002 that has the 48 year avg. from 1941-89.  We are near the Int. border in the notch below the 140 that is below the 120.  According to the town report the recorded avg. was 159 during that time.  http://www.erh.noaa.gov/car/snow.htm
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliRECtM.pl?me4086
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliRECtM.pl?me4086

Here is a couple other sources.  Numbers vary depending on the source.


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## Adios Pantalones (Sep 29, 2015)

Well, without going through the weather for every year, if it really is that accurate for you then you're either in the sweet spot for their method, or they're crazy lucky for you! There were a few articles after they blew it for us last winter exposing how poor their track record is


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## Vikestand (Oct 13, 2015)

I predict we will have some cold snowy days. Some warmer than usual days. And I'll be tired of it by March 1st.


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## kennyp2339 (Oct 26, 2015)

Brother Bart - I just got a call from my paving company, there going to repave my main road and driveway Nov 4th, Farmer's Almanac says: Nov 1st & 2nd - Sunny & Cold, 3rd - 8th rainy periods & mild, 9th -12th rain & snow showers.  
Could you verify this with your cat? Location NW NJ


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## BrotherBart (Oct 26, 2015)

She said cloudy and in the high fifties and mid sixties that week but will turn cold and rainy on Saturday but partly cloudy/sunny with fifties and sixties for the next week.


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## kennyp2339 (Nov 13, 2015)

The score so far: Brother Barts Cat +1, Almanac 0, Almanac is predicting a white thanksgiving around here, care to make another forecast?


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## Michael6268 (Nov 13, 2015)

I know!  And a lot of the weathermen that were predicting a bad winter are back peddling big time!
Fine with me.
I may not even light the stove at this rate!


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## BrotherBart (Nov 13, 2015)

The best forecaster around these parts put out his for this Winter a couple of days ago. He sees it staying mild through December but a snow bombing coming mid-January through February.

He also predicted this warm November a couple of months ago.


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