# 2013/2014 COLD winter season?..



## Ram 1500 with an axe... (Jul 29, 2013)

What do you guys think? Every time I make a prediction like THE JETS are going to win, I am always wrong.... Am I wrong this time that its gonna be a cold one?


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## tomahawk (Jul 29, 2013)

Been one of the nicest spring/summers we have had in a long time, so I'm sure we are in for it this winter. 

Your prediction for the Jets however will not come true for quite some time.


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## DevilsBrew (Jul 29, 2013)

I am pulling out the fleece sheets tonight.

The Jets...*sigh*...I...um....oh boy.


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## Ram 1500 with an axe... (Jul 29, 2013)

Yeahhhhh thanks guys :-(


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## dafattkidd (Jul 30, 2013)

My guess for Long Island is average temps for winter.  3-5 snow storms.  Maybe one major dump of snow.  I know lame answer, but really I think we're going to have a mostly average winter.  I have absolutely no credentials to back this.


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## Trilifter7 (Jul 30, 2013)

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/ind...wdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179

Been following this website for a little while now. Looks like winter is coming!!


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## Todd (Jul 30, 2013)

I have a hard time believing any long range forecast, just hope Winter doesn't last as long as it did last year.


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## gmule (Jul 30, 2013)

I am no weather man. But I am noticing things like some of the birds have already left my area. the humming birds, Barn swallows, and blue birds seem to have left early. My GSD is already getting his winter coat. The nights are a little cooler dropping into the high 40's-low 50's.
Then I read that we are headed into a solar minimum http://news.nationalgeographic.co.u...bernation-solar-cycle-sunspots-space-science/

So maybe we will have a few cooler winters.


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## Holzstapel (Jul 30, 2013)

Never lived a winter season i didnt enjoy.  Bring it on in any shape or size. 

Although I prefer below average temps to freeze all the lakes and swamps, and plenty of snow on the trails for XC skiing.


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## BrotherBart (Jul 30, 2013)

I'l work on getting through hurricane season before I start worrying about winter.


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## Ashful (Jul 30, 2013)

You heat with wood... why are you worried about what kind of winter it will be?  

Bad weather does slow down the wood processing, tho.


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## WellSeasoned (Jul 30, 2013)

I hope so, and lots of snow to shut things down for a few months.


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## begreen (Jul 30, 2013)

Predicting long term weather is like trying to spot the next bubble in a boiling pot. In the end the JET stream always wins.


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## Highbeam (Jul 30, 2013)

It hasn't rained here in WA for nearly 30 days. Love it. We expect a dark, wet, and long winter and we always get it.


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## begreen (Jul 30, 2013)

We're at day 33 here and we still have the whole dry month of August to go. I'm starting to see the stress in some trees. Many are already turning color and the fire danger is getting very high.


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## thewoodlands (Jul 30, 2013)

Ram 1500 with an axe... said:


> What do you guys think? Every time I make a prediction like THE JETS are going to win, I am always wrong.... Am I wrong this time that its gonna be a cold one?


Below normal temps in the east, lots & lots of snow, looks like we'll be in for some real bad blizzards, start stocking up on the extra food!

Buy that extra special person in your life a good strong shovel.


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## begreen (Jul 30, 2013)

NOAA's Nov-Dec-Jan outlook is warmer than average for the east and Great Lakes region, continuing into Feb. 2014.





http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4


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## will711 (Jul 30, 2013)

zap said:


> start stocking up on the extra food!


Don't forget the Beer


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## thewoodlands (Jul 30, 2013)

begreen said:


> NOAA's Nov-Dec-Jan outlook is warmer than average for the east and Great Lakes region, continuing into Feb. 2014.
> 
> View attachment 107328
> 
> ...


 I really do think in our area ( foothills of the Dacks) were in for that old fashion winter. The first or second year we lived there my neighbor had seen me plowing the driveway, he called me to tell me that I better push the snow back much deeper into the woods, we had that old fashion winter that year.

I think this year we'll have more shots of that Artic air than we did last year, (New England area too) we have a chit load of Sugar Maple & Beech ready.

We need a good old fashion winter, it will help out the busineses that are selling or repairing sleds.


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## will711 (Jul 30, 2013)

I already started


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## begreen (Jul 30, 2013)

Any predictions more than a couple weeks out are a stretch. And NOAA has gotten it wrong before. Best of luck with the sled biz. Maybe broaden the service just in case. Canoe repair?


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## lukem (Jul 30, 2013)

will711 said:


> I already started
> View attachment 107339


 

I think you're going to want to get at least a face cord of that stacked up.


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## will711 (Jul 30, 2013)

lukem said:


> I think you're going to want to get at least a face cord of that stacked up.


That's a very good idea, Beer is like wood can never have enough


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## thewoodlands (Jul 30, 2013)

We all like pics.


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## firefighterjake (Jul 30, 2013)

I can always tell you what sort of winter we have had . . . in March.

As for a prediction . . . I predict it getting cooler, maybe some days with snow and come Spring time some days with warmth.

I figure it is what it is . . . no sense getting all wound up about it.


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## Backwoods Savage (Jul 30, 2013)

Big winter come. Neighbor build big woodpile.


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## begreen (Jul 30, 2013)

zap said:


> We all like pics.


 
We all love sources for data too. Please include or it may be a copyright violation.


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## PapaDave (Jul 30, 2013)

Jake, the new Hippy Dippy weatherman, with the Hippy Dippy weather.


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## Hills Hoard (Jul 30, 2013)

I've had the lamest winter down here.   I think melbourne is going to break the record for the hottest july we've had (on record)...

i had all this wood stacked ready for an icey cold one but no dice...


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## begreen (Jul 30, 2013)

Hills Hoard said:


> i had all this wood stacked ready for an icey cold one but no dice...


 
Brighten up, there's always the liquid variety mate!


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## Defiant (Jul 30, 2013)

Ram 1500 with an axe... said:


> What do you guys think? Every time I make a prediction like THE JETS are going to win, I am always wrong.... Am I wrong this time that its gonna be a cold one?


First of all you are cheering for the wrong NY team, hopefully they have a better season this year . As far as your wood, I'll take it if you don't need it


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## Hills Hoard (Jul 30, 2013)

begreen said:


> Brighten up, there's always the liquid variety mate!


 


Thats a given!!


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## Ram 1500 with an axe... (Jul 30, 2013)

will711 said:


> I already started
> View attachment 107339


Yes, nice score but you're gonna need to get some more...


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## BrotherBart (Jul 30, 2013)

Prediction: Normal winter this year and next because I have adequate wood supply. After that it is gonna be bad ones because I am way behind.

More accurate a predictor than any weatherman on the planet.


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## granpajohn (Jul 31, 2013)

Trilifter7 said:


> http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/ind...wdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179
> 
> Been following this website for a little while now. Looks like winter is coming!!


 
He says his outlook is based on a weak to moderate El Nino. I don't see that happening. (...he says, as if he's never blown a weather forecast )

ETA:  But I really like the way the site is put together. Very descriptive graphics and text both.


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## begreen (Jul 31, 2013)

Crap, now we're in trouble. He's predicting lower than normal snowfall for our area. Glad I have a good stash of wood this year.


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## Seanm (Jul 31, 2013)

You never can tell what kind of winter you will get. I remember a few years ago we were supposed to get the mother of all winters so we braced for it.... didn't happen. Some of the biggest and coldest storms are the ones around here that aren't predicted. If its mild it means more shoveling of snow and if its colder then it means more grumbles from the kids on school mornings from frozen nostril hairs!. I like to measure the lake ice to see how thick it is, now that's an accurate weather gage! I saw on another post here that the states had a bunch of records broken for cold weather, some were pretty cold. Crazy around here to... a couple of days ago we had weather up to 34c in the day and two days ago we had highs of 13c and lows of 6c! I told the wife I was thinking of lighting a fire.


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## Seasoned Oak (Jul 31, 2013)

This summer is kind of odd,i dont remember so many nights in the 50s in july.


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## begreen (Jul 31, 2013)

Welcome to our weather. At least it's good for sleeping and keeps the AC load down if the house is open at night and closed off in the daytime.


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## n3pro (Aug 1, 2013)

It's fun to speculate.  I was dead wrong last year, I thought for sure we were due for a long hard winter but obviously that didn't pan out.  I'm thankful for warmer then expected winters the last few years because it helped me to have the most wood on hand then ever before.  If it's cold, I'm ready, if not then I'll have even better stockpile for next year.  Really need a bigger yard at this point though.  

So far 2013 has been different year here weather wise then the last few so I'm thinking a different winter too.  We have been going from cold in February to blowtorch in March til October then November has been the transition month then cold but above normal winter.  This year I burned later then the last few, we didn't hit 100 and 90 plus degrees days were lot less.  Trend, sign or anomaly?   We will find out next spring but it does seem like a different year.  As I said, i've said that before.


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## hobbyheater (Aug 2, 2013)

It goes something like this.  George and Joe lived opposite each other on a old country road. Joe always seemed to know what next winter's  weather was going to be like.  Finally somebody asked Joe how he knew and he said "George is out in the summer cutting firewood so he must know".  George always knew when it was a bad winter because Joe was out in the blowing snow cutting his firewood!


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## Ashful (Aug 2, 2013)

n3pro said:


> So far 2013 has been different year here weather wise then the last few so I'm thinking a different winter too. We have been going from cold in February to blowtorch in March til October then November has been the transition month then cold but above normal winter.


 

I'm pretty darn close to your "unknown capital", and I remember the last two years differently:

1.  Fall 2011:  Wettest on record.  Incessant rain, flooded lawns, hurricane Irene and a tropical storm a week later that dumped even more rain than the hurricane.
2.  Winter 2012:  Started off pretty cold, but ended very early.  February and March were so warm, it became known as the winter that never was.  I had flowers coming up in February, and had to get my weed control down on Mar.8, as they were already coming up in the first week of March!
3.  Summer 2012:  Hotter than usual.  I think we broke some records for the number of days over 90.
4.  Fall 2012:  Hurricane Sandy, which didn't break any records for rain, but brought down trees and wiring in great fashion.  Most of my neighbors were without power for 7 - 10 days.
5.  Winter 2013:  COOOLD!, with a 10 day stretch around 10F.  The heavy cold ended very early, similar to 2012, but the shoulder season lasted forever.
6.  Spring 2013:  Much cooler than average.  Stretched longer than average.


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## Seasoned Oak (Aug 2, 2013)

I go by how many tons of fuel i burn. Last winter 2012-2013 it was 5.5 ton. The year before was an all time record breaker at 3 Ton.
Average year lately is about 5 ton. 5-10 years ago average was about 6+ ton. Must be getting warmer.


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## n3pro (Aug 2, 2013)

Joful said:


> I'm pretty darn close to your "unknown capital", and I remember the last two years differently:


 
What I remember and what really happened can often be two different things.  I make no claims of having a great memory.  FWIW I'll in the Bensalem side of Philly the 8th - 10th.  Going to visit some friends.  

Don't take much distance to see a change in weather.  As I mentioned in another post, really odd this year.  There have been flash flood warnings a few times as close as Carlisle, Marysville, Colonial Park, New Cumberland, etc but not here.  I have been rather dry.  The storms keep missing me or forming just east of the river.  Our grass is brown and looks rough, yet a few miles away it's green we have been mowing once a week.  

You guys sure have been getting clobbered with the rain this year.  Weather fascinates me.


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## Seasoned Oak (Aug 2, 2013)

My prediction for winter: Cold ,continued cold,getting warmer in the spring.


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## DevilsBrew (Aug 4, 2013)

I hate fighting the crowds at the beach in summer.

(Lows in the high 40s tonight)


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## Flatbedford (Aug 9, 2013)

I don't buy any of the long term forecasts either. In the Spring of 2010 I bought a garden tractor a snow plow and a snow thrower. I was sure that it would never snow. 2010-11 was the snowiest winter in my area since 1993! My brother in law bought a similar tractor in 2011 and winter 11-12 was the winter that wasn't. I'm sure it will be colder in January than it is now and there may even be some snow. It will all melt by May.


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## granpajohn (Aug 9, 2013)

Flatbedford said:


> I don't buy any of the long term forecasts either. In the Spring of 2010 I bought a garden tractor a snow plow and a snow thrower. I was sure that it would never snow. 2010-11 was the snowiest winter in my area since 1993! My brother in law bought a similar tractor in 2011 and winter 11-12 was the winter that wasn't. I'm sure it will be colder in January than it is now and there may even be some snow. It will all melt by May.


That may be one of the most unscientific methods of forecasting I've heard...
....however...
...and sadly....
It's probably about as accurate as anything else out there. (So just keep working it.)


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## granpajohn (Aug 9, 2013)

Well OK; if you feel that a cold arctic summer will lead to an early winter in US/Canada, there is this hard data:
...2013 is coldest, shortest arctic summer since such things were first recorded in 1958. (per Danish Meteorological Institute)
(Temp is shown in Kelvins. 273k = 32f = 0c)





credit DMI


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## NortheastAl (Aug 9, 2013)

PapaDave said:


> Jake, the new Hippy Dippy weatherman, with the Hippy Dippy weather.


Tonight, dark. Continued dark overnight, followed by partial light in the morning. Ah, I remember it well...


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## Seasoned Oak (Aug 10, 2013)

The cooler than normal  temps just keep coming. Many Nights in the 50s .I love this kind of weather ,but my kids like warmer summers for swimming.  Just 1 week long warm spell in the 90s back in June so far.   
*WedAug 14​*



74°​52°​Partly Cloudy​CHANCE OF RAIN:
0%

WIND:
NNW at 7 mph​


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