# Lumber Prices



## vinny11950 (Apr 14, 2021)

I didn't realize lumber prices had gone thru the roof until I looked at some plywood sheathing yesterday at the local HD.  A sheet that had been $34 several months ago is now $56.  Wow.

I think I will put off my project for now, until prices come back down.

This article below from Bloomberg says supply production shrunk while pandemic demand for home renovations has surged.

Lumber Frenzy Drives Up Home Prices as Suppliers Can’t Keep Up - Bloomberg


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## blades (Apr 14, 2021)

yep a 2 dollar 2x4 is now anywhere from 8-11 dollars each.  Pressure treated is almost unobtainable.


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## Sawset (Apr 14, 2021)

2x4x8's were $2.80-3.20, now $6.50
Time to get that portable sawmill that's been on the wish list.
There is a bunch of scrap lumber out back that was just about to go on the burn pile - starting to rethink that.


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## SpaceBus (Apr 14, 2021)

I'm glad I was able to secure my sawmill last summer before the market exploded.


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## ABMax24 (Apr 14, 2021)

Some of the supply shortages are caused by the softwood tariffs on Canadian Lumber, which currently stand at 9%, down from 27% in the early 2000's, which were imposed on Canadian mills to make US mills more competitive and keep US lumber prices higher. As a result many mills in Canada were shut down, and 10's of thousands lost their jobs.

Now the chickens have come home to roost, and the supply can't support the demand because the mills and workers to absorb this surge in demand no longer exist.

The only way to solve this pricing issue is reduce demand or increase supply. I believe we are heading into one of the biggest economic booms the world has every seen and doubt demand will do anything but grow, and it will take years to get more supply online. I don't see lumber pricing dropping significantly anytime soon.


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## peakbagger (Apr 14, 2021)

Sawset said:


> 2x4x8's were $2.80-3.20, now $6.50
> Time to get that portable sawmill that's been on the wish list.
> There is a bunch of scrap lumber out back that was just about to go on the burn pile - starting to rethink that.


I have seen posts on Forestry Forum that the portable sawmill firms are six months out on delivery. Used ones are selling for a premium.


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## Sawset (Apr 14, 2021)

peakbagger said:


> I have seen posts on Forestry Forum that the portable sawmill firms are six months out on delivery. Used ones are selling for a premium.


Of course they are ha ha - we are so screwed.


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## SpaceBus (Apr 14, 2021)

peakbagger said:


> I have seen posts on Forestry Forum that the portable sawmill firms are six months out on delivery. Used ones are selling for a premium.


When I paid for my Logosol I had to wait six weeks since it was still on the ship from Sweden, that was before things really spiraled out of control. It's been a while since I've been on forestry forum, I forgot my password this morning when I tried to log in! I wouldn't be surprised of that six month wait just keeps getting longer.


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## peakbagger (Apr 14, 2021)

It all comes down to supply and demand. The supply was constrained due to Covid, mills shut down thinking the demand would go down  and the demand is now higher than expected. There is inertia in the system, trees need to be cut, employees hired,  machines starting up again. Anyone making plywood and 2x4s has a major carrot hanging out there to crank out lots of product to catch the high prices, add in a big hurricane season and that can screw things up. Right now supply is fixed so there is more demand than supply, at some point, the prices goes high enough that people not willing to pay the high prices drop out of the market. Give it a year or so and the supply will balance out with demand and eventually exceed it and then prices drop. There is large lumber mill near me and they were selling wood at discount early on in Covid as no one was buying and truckers were not available. My brother got a great deal on lumber last fall as the local firm picked it up at the sawmills yard and directly delivered it to his place.

Years ago there was a bad hurricane season and plywood prices were sky high, a friend worked with a sawmill and it was less cost to use 3/4" #2 grade T&G boards for sheathing rather than plywood.  1/2" plywood tends to telegraph 24" roof joists while boards do not telegraph.  My friend switched from 16" OC to 24" on the roof trusses when he went to boards. Its more labor but we were working for beer. Contractors dont have that option.


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## NickW (Apr 14, 2021)

Preaching to the choir... Excavation on our cabin starts next Tuesday. Original lumber quotes in early winter are now about 50% higher. Floor system from 3k to 5k, trusses from 9k to 14k. There's some changes included in the requotes so it's not all price increases, but the changes weren't very significant. Last I heard prices weren't projected to start dropping until 4th quarter.


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## tlc1976 (Apr 15, 2021)

I noticed this last year too. Won’t be re-siding my house anytime soon but it’s not something I really have to do.

I heard last year it was due to all these businesses building outdoor seating and dividers and things. I imagine people having so much more time on their hands, or businesses having some downtime with Covid so good time to remodel.

I remember about 15 years ago maybe there was a price surge and I heard it was due to sending all our wood to Iraq. Who knows. I just know that the days of the $1 econo-stud will probably never return.

Might be a good time to do some select cutting on my wooded acreage. It might be worth more than usual right now. People been telling me for years I should do that.


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## NickW (Apr 15, 2021)

Remember OSB at $10-15 a sheet? In December it was $25 and now is $33 at the big box stores. Probably close to $40 at the local lumberyard who was $28 in December.


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## ABMax24 (Apr 15, 2021)

NickW said:


> Remember OSB at $10-15 a sheet? In December it was $25 and now is $33 at the big box stores. Probably close to $40 at the local lumberyard who was $28 in December.



I remember when OSB was $5 a sheet, as a kid dad bought a lift to do a bunch of renovations on the house and was irked the price had went up to $5.25.


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## FramerJ (Apr 15, 2021)

I frame 2000-4000 sf houses in Kansas City. The demand is mindblowing.  I have no idea where all the people are coming from to buy houses.  Or afford them. The builder I work for stopped taking new build contracts.  Is going to specs (no contract) now because he doesnt want to get locked in on a price with lumber costs increasing weekly plus dealing with shortages.  Our lumber company is a national company and they are running out of material-- siding, smart trim, LVLs, 2x6s, you name it.  Its starting to hold up jobs. Theft is also becoming a huge problem.  Another framing crew put 50 sheets of OSB up on the ceiling joists to deter any would be thieves only to come back the next day and it was gone.  Thats crazy stuff.


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## tlc1976 (Apr 15, 2021)

FramerJ said:


> I frame 2000-4000 sf houses in Kansas City. The demand is mindblowing.  I have no idea where all the people are coming from to buy houses.  Or afford them. The builder I work for stopped taking new build contracts.  Is going to specs (no contract) now because he doesnt want to get locked in on a price with lumber costs increasing weekly plus dealing with shortages.  Our lumber company is a national company and they are running out of material-- siding, smart trim, LVLs, 2x6s, you name it.  Its starting to hold up jobs. Theft is also becoming a huge problem.  Another framing crew put 50 sheets of OSB up on the ceiling joists to deter any would be thieves only to come back the next day and it was gone.  Thats crazy stuff.



Because of it being accepted to work at home now, all you need is an internet connection. People can now work for high paying urban jobs and live in a low priced area. Double win, plus often a safer area to raise the kids.


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## Prof (Apr 15, 2021)

I wanted to put in several raised garden beds. To the credit of the local guy who saws rough-cut hemlock, he hasn't raised his prices much if any. He, however, doesn't have any wood in stock and has a major backlog in orders. Fortunately for me, he had a guy stiff him on an order and my garden beds came together nicely. This got me to thinking that maybe I should consider turning some of my hemlocks into boards, so I ordered this: 

Amazon product 

I watched a few videos or guys using this product. Seems worth the price. I often feel like I waste $30-40 on a meal at a chain restaurant, so I figured what the heck--don't tell the wife and kids, but we aren't going out to eat this week!


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## brenndatomu (Apr 15, 2021)

ABMax24 said:


> I remember when OSB was $5 a sheet


I remember when it was under $4...they could hardly give it away...back then nobody wanted "a bunch of wood chips glued together to make a board"  
3/4" CDX plywood was $10 IIRC...its $55 now!


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## ABMax24 (Apr 16, 2021)

brenndatomu said:


> I remember when it was under $4...they could hardly give it away...back then nobody wanted "a bunch of wood chips glued together to make a board"
> 3/4" CDX plywood was $10 IIRC...its $55 now!



We live on a newer end of town and there are new houses being built about a block away, we were driving by some of the houses and couldn't figure out why the sheeting looked so weird, it was plywood instead of OSB. Outside of high end custom homes I can't ever remember seeing houses sheeted with plywood, everything here is done with OSB.


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## Seasoned Oak (Apr 16, 2021)

Zip sheathing   OSB        $81


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## brenndatomu (Apr 16, 2021)

ABMax24 said:


> everything here is done with OSB.


Yeah, now...this was back in the 80's...when OSB first came out


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## SpaceBus (Apr 16, 2021)

brenndatomu said:


> I remember when it was under $4...they could hardly give it away...back then nobody wanted "a bunch of wood chips glued together to make a board"
> 3/4" CDX plywood was $10 IIRC...its $55 now!


Wow. We used a lot of CDX on this house and I still have a sheet of 1/2".


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## peakbagger (Apr 16, 2021)

I will take cdx over OSB in a heartbeat. I have ripped down older OSB additions and the OSB was brittle.


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## clancey (Apr 16, 2021)

Heck I remember 2x4"s going for about 2 bucks now they are almost 7 dollars a piece...clancey


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## fbelec (Apr 17, 2021)

it may not be lumber but it is for projects or new houses. we are having trouble getting circuit breakers. doesn't matter the brand. i was told that the companies that make breakers can't get the plastic because of covid. they are way behind on their delivery's. i did a emergency panel change last week when i went into the supply house they were almost out of single pole 15 and 20 amp breakers. i was lucky i had some on the truck to add to the 6 allowed to every customer.
 i was at lowes today and noticed that they had two 40 foot flat beds making a delivery of pressure treated lumber.


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## Seasoned Oak (Apr 17, 2021)

fbelec said:


> it may not be lumber but it is for projects or new houses. we are having trouble getting circuit breakers. doesn't matter the brand. i was told that the companies that make breakers can't get the plastic because of covid. they are way behind on their delivery's.


Its all building materials and commodities. Recent price hikes have added an average of $24000 to the price of a new home.


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## SpaceBus (Apr 17, 2021)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Its all building materials and commodities. Recent price hikes have added an average of $24000 to the price of a new home.


That is brutal.


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## NickW (Apr 17, 2021)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Its all building materials and commodities. Recent price hikes have added an average of $24000 to the price of a new home.


I've seen that # thrown around a lot lately, but is it compared to pre-pandemic prices or to last March when the lumber prices crashed? 

When the "add 16k" was being thrown around and "a lumber package that used to cost 18k now costs 42k" last summer they were comparing to the "crashed" prices (which was a bit deceptive IMHO).

And yes, it took months last year to find a couple of GFCI breakers.


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## Seasoned Oak (Apr 17, 2021)

NickW said:


> I've seen that # thrown around a lot lately, but is it compared to pre-pandemic prices or to last March when the lumber prices crashed?


Im sure higher labor rates and fuel cost are also a factor , not just materials. I have to pay twice for labor now what i did just a few yrs ago but the prices i can charge have hardly gone up much at all in my particular business.


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## Sawset (Apr 17, 2021)

At menards,  shelves of pvc outlet boxs were half empty and had a sign - pvc shortage, no additional stock.  Didn't go through the lumber area - putting any projects requiring that off for now. It's hard enough managing a job site, must be a real treat at the moment trying to get anything done.


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## festerw (Apr 18, 2021)

We've got a fence around the tennis courts at work that blew down in a windstorm last month that is still down because the fencing company can't get the steel to repair it.

I had a hard time finding 2 lengths of 3/4 PVC conduit a couple weeks ago to finish an outdoor project.

I was also curious and looked up what I paid last year for some lumber vs current pricing. Some aren't crazy some went to the moon.

2021 is the first number, 2020 the second.

4x4x10 $21 vs 15

2x4x8 $10 vs $6

5/4x6x8 $7 vs 5.50

4x4x16 $35 vs 23

6x6x12 $70 vs 43

2x6x12 $16 vs 12

3 step stringer $15 vs 8


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## mcdougy (Apr 18, 2021)

FramerJ said:


> I frame 2000-4000 sf houses in Kansas City. The demand is mindblowing.  I have no idea where all the people are coming from to buy houses.  Or afford them. The builder I work for stopped taking new build contracts.  Is going to specs (no contract) now because he doesnt want to get locked in on a price with lumber costs increasing weekly plus dealing with shortages.  Our lumber company is a national company and they are running out of material-- siding, smart trim, LVLs, 2x6s, you name it.  Its starting to hold up jobs. Theft is also becoming a huge problem.  Another framing crew put 50 sheets of OSB up on the ceiling joists to deter any would be thieves only to come back the next day and it was gone.  Thats crazy stuff.


What's a 3000 sqft house cost Missouri that your building?


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## ispinwool (Apr 18, 2021)

Back when my Honey and I were first married, we got a great deal on 4'x8' OSB @ $4.95 each.  We bought 100
and slowly used them up on different projects over the years. Today they're between $30 and $40 dollars each!


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## FramerJ (Apr 18, 2021)

mcdougy said:


> What's a 3000 sqft house cost Missouri that your building?


Around $500,000 depending on neighborhood, school district, lot size, etc.


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## clancey (Apr 18, 2021)

I have to take a trip to the lumber store for major purchases this week and I dread it...Prices are sky high...clancey


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## brenndatomu (Apr 18, 2021)

I was surprised to see 2x10 x 16' treated SYP #2 prime is only $35...dunno what they were before, but that seems like a better value that 2x4's and plywood/OSB right now...that's less than $0.50/lb!


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## NickW (Apr 18, 2021)

FramerJ said:


> Around $500,000 depending on neighborhood, school district, lot size, etc.


The designer who did our cabin drawings told me that if you can't afford $200sqft (having a GC) they don't want to do the drawings. 

Acting as my own GC, I'm becoming even more disillusioned with the construction industry, which is another reason I'm no longer in it. I understand that I play second fiddle to "real" GC's for the subs because they'll get more work from them in the future; but the GC's WANT your costs to go up so they get the additional markup. There is zero motivation to shop for materials.


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## Nealm66 (Apr 18, 2021)

Just talking to a manager for depot, said lumber is up 130%


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## mcdougy (Apr 18, 2021)

Very strange times


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## brenndatomu (Apr 18, 2021)

ispinwool said:


> Back when my Honey and I were first married, we got a great deal on 4'x8' OSB @ $4.95 each.  We bought 100
> and slowly used them up on different projects over the years. Today they're between $30 and $40 dollars each!


Boy that turned out to be a good decision, eh?!


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## mcdougy (Apr 18, 2021)

2017 when we built I thanked the powers that I found osb for 12$ a sheet when most suppliers were wanting 21$ cad. It was a big savings on 360 sheets. IIRC  the cause of the jump that year was Okanagan fires and a couple other plants off line.


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## thecoalman (Apr 18, 2021)

I work at small hardware store that also does bikes and chainsaw dealership. Lots of things have gone up, as one example he bought some garden hoses that were almost the same price wholesale he was selling them for previously.  That's probably the most dramatic increase I've seen. 

Lot's of trouble getting some common items like staplers, shovels etc. . The power equipment is coming in dribs and drabs, bikes are very difficult to obtain. He has dealership for major bike manufacturer and one very high end bike in their line will not be available until 2023.... that's no BS. The biggest issue with the bikes is Shimano provides the majority of components. Between the increased demand and covid they simply can't meet the demand.

Things will settle but it will be a while. I had planned to do some major renovations on my house, I'm holding off for now.


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## FramerJ (Apr 18, 2021)

Throw in the fact that a lot of equipment, parts, supplies, materials, etc are in thousands of shipping containers sitting in our ports with no way to get to their destination due to the shortage of OTR truckers.


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## mar13 (Apr 18, 2021)

Life got in the way of my shed build last summer. Economics looks like it'll get in the way this summer, leading to another winter of tarping. I'll be one small example of people backing off because of increased costs.

Hopefully the supply will go up and demand settle down. The government has pumped almost 4 trillion dollars into the economy in 12 months. To put it in perspective, the NY Times wrote that 20 years in Afghanistan cost 1 trillion. I think lumber costs will go back down, but not near to the pre pandemic levels.


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## thecoalman (Apr 18, 2021)

FramerJ said:


> Throw in the fact that a lot of equipment, parts, supplies, materials, etc are in thousands of shipping containers sitting in our ports with no way to get to their destination due to the shortage of OTR truckers.




It's not just the shipping. A lot of demand has been created for these products. People havemore time to do those home projects they have been putting off or riding a bike. How many people that purchased wood for heat decided to go out and buy a chainsaw just for something to do?


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## tlc1976 (Apr 19, 2021)

At this point it’s probably going to be like the TP shortage. People know there’s a shortage so they buy it up when they see it. Either to hoard for future projects, or to offload on Craigslist for even more than they paid.


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## brenndatomu (Apr 19, 2021)

tlc1976 said:


> offload on Craigslist for even more than they paid


There's some of that going on for sure...I've noticed everybody and their brother posting their leftover cutoffs for as much or more than a full sheet sold for not very long ago!


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## SpaceBus (Apr 19, 2021)

I've been thinking very strongly about getting some sort of planer/moulder so I can make high value items from my rough lumber, but I don't even have a place to put a planer.


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## EbS-P (Apr 19, 2021)

Poplar Board (Common: 1 in. x 6 in. x R/L; Actual: 0.75 in. x 5.5 in. x R/L) 
At $4.25 per foot.   I’ve got a small fortune laying here.   









						Poplar Board (Common: 1 in. x 6 in. x R/L; Actual: 0.75 in. x 5.5 in. x R/L) 21065 - The Home Depot
					





					www.homedepot.com


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## EbS-P (Apr 19, 2021)

SpaceBus said:


> I've been thinking very strongly about getting some sort of planer/moulder so I can make high value items from my rough lumber, but I don't even have a place to put a planer.


In several occasions I have almost purchased the mounding head and knives for my shopsmith.   Just never found a need.  Custom picture frames Maybe.


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## SpaceBus (Apr 19, 2021)

I've been cranking out fence posts for an upcoming project and I figure I'm amassing a small fortune in 4x4's!


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## peakbagger (Apr 19, 2021)

SpaceBus said:


> I've been thinking very strongly about getting some sort of planer/moulder so I can make high value items from my rough lumber, but I don't even have a place to put a planer.


I have talked to several folks who started out with portable mills that ended up adding planing and moulding to make high added value product. There are two problems, I dont think wood is planed green so its time to call up Nyle Kiln and buy a kiln and then have equipment to load it and unload it. The second problem is you  need three phase power to run the equipment that is sized for reasonable thruput. One guy  I talked to just got a surplus 3 phase generator and ran it when he needed it. 

Funny on the poplar, I have bigtooth aspens on my lot and there is minimal demand for the wood locally. I just dropped 2 big ones and have 5 nice logs ranging from 24" diameter down to 16". I will haul them over to my friends bandsaw mill to get cut up into boards. Nice wood for interior but its rots quick when used outdoors unless its torrified.


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## SpaceBus (Apr 19, 2021)

peakbagger said:


> I have talked to several folks who started out with portable mills that ended up adding planing and moulding to make high added value product. There are two problems, I dont think wood is planed green so its time to call up Nyle Kiln and buy a kiln and then have equipment to load it and unload it. The second problem is you  need three phase power to run the equipment that is sized for reasonable thruput. One guy  I talked to just got a surplus 3 phase generator and ran it when he needed it.
> 
> Funny on the poplar, I have bigtooth aspens on my lot and there is minimal demand for the wood locally. I just dropped 2 big ones and have 5 nice logs ranging from 24" diameter down to 16". I will haul them over to my friends bandsaw mill to get cut up into boards. Nice wood for interior but its rots quick when used outdoors unless its torrified.



I'll probably stick to air drying, even if we do eventually pick up a moulder. I have my eye on the Logosol PH260, but I can't find any pricing and that means they are way out of my price range at the moment! They are a four headed single phase 220v moulder. Definitely not the throughput of the big name industrial units, but I also don't have a super high throughput mill. Our property is mostly unmanaged forest with no infrastructure. By the time we build a good sized workshop/shed the Logosol may be within my budget, but finished lumber/moulding prices will probably have fallen back down to "normal" levels. There are some decent 220v 2-5 hp single phase planers on the market that accept knives for cutting profiles into the wood, but the throughput is pretty minimal from what I understand.


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## blades (Apr 19, 2021)

Ya but it's custom work so worth double the big store price.  I do a lot of work for a molding supply co.  They are having suppler shortages as well . Metal , wood and  plastic, some of it is related to the finishes as well.


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## Nealm66 (Apr 19, 2021)

A friend of mine that does(did?) portable milling got his grading card which is a big deal for construction lumber. Not sure if he’s still doing it anymore, still does logging and tree work but I know he fussed about mill work


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## mar13 (Apr 21, 2021)

Lumber prices 2021 chart: Price of lumber up 200%, pre-COVID cost of wood may not return | Fortune
					

Do-it-yourselfers just can't catch a break: On Friday, the price per thousand board feet of lumber jumped to an all-time high of $1,104. It was $358 a year ago.



					fortune.com


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## SpaceBus (Apr 22, 2021)

I joked with a friend the other day that I might be able to barter a stack of lumber for an 18-20' pintle trailer.


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## NickW (Apr 22, 2021)

SpaceBus said:


> I joked with a friend the other day that I might be able to barter a stack of lumber for an 18-20' pintle trailer.


You might.... my truss quote from April 5th went up $1900 when I placed the order on Monday the 19th..  Prices are so volatile they are only being held 3 days I think.


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## SpaceBus (Apr 22, 2021)

NickW said:


> You might.... my truss quote from April 5th went up $1900 when I placed the order on Monday the 19th..  Prices are so volatile they are only being held 3 days I think.


That's pretty wild! I can only make rough lumber, for now, but that seems to be in great demand as well.


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## firefighterjake (Apr 22, 2021)

SpaceBus said:


> That's pretty wild! I can only make rough lumber, for now, but that seems to be in great demand as well.



It is . . . not sure what the price is now, but a couple weeks ago our ATV Club President called the local lumber yard to get pricing on rough cut hemlock planks to replace on the various bridges we use. 2 x 12 x 12 was $24


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## SpaceBus (Apr 22, 2021)

firefighterjake said:


> It is . . . not sure what the price is now, but a couple weeks ago our ATV Club President called the local lumber yard to get pricing on rough cut hemlock planks to replace on the various bridges we use. 2 x 12 x 12 was $24


If you know anyone with a 18-20' pintle trailer, I'd be willing to barter some lumber for it!


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## mellow (Apr 23, 2021)

Same with plumbing, had to move my outside spigot for a new deck and just finding cvpc in 3/4 and 1/2 was a pain, thank goodness I had bought some contractor bags of 90's and connectors, the shelves at Lowes are slim pickins.  Heck I got the only container of cpvc cement that they had, no primer so I had to use some I already had, thankfully it doesn't go bad like cement does.


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## tlc1976 (Apr 23, 2021)

mellow said:


> Same with plumbing, had to move my outside spigot for a new deck and just finding cvpc in 3/4 and 1/2 was a pain, thank goodness I had bought some contractor bags of 90's and connectors, the shelves at Lowes are slim pickins.  Heck I got the only container of cpvc cement that they had, no primer so I had to use some I already had, thankfully it doesn't go bad like cement does.


Wow just before the full time snow came in December, I got pvc conduit and ran both my internet cable to the pole barn, and my fiber cable into the house. Lowes had a ton of it and it didn’t cost any more than I paid years before. Glad I didn’t wait till spring.


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## vinny11950 (Apr 23, 2021)

The same goes for catalytic converters.  The precious metal in some of them is very valuable now, so much so they are being stolen.  

I was also planning on replacing the catalyst in my Jeep last year but didn't get around to it, but a new catalyst was around $270 back then.  Now it is closer to $500.  Missed that boat.  I guess I will just have to get more life out of the old one.


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## peakbagger (Apr 24, 2021)

Whether folks know it or not, we are talking about something that we all kind of forgot about which is inflation mixed with supply an demand economics. In order to prevent worse damage to the economy from effectively shutting it down, the Federal Reserve and Congress printed money and sent it into the economy to keep businesses and individuals afloat. If they had not we would be in far worse shape than we are now. The problem with printing money is most of it gets spent and the supply chain was slowed down by covid and no one in the system really wanted to fill warehouses full of product. The federal reserve was not just printing money, they have been artificially keeping the interest rates low so that fuels a housing boom and a in general a business boom. Anyone buying a house today  is buying on credit backed by super low long term federal interest rates. They are locking in these rates for decades. With these incentives out there houses are in demand but existing home owners are hanging back from selling.  So every one wants a new house but the supply chain can not handle it.  Anyone with pellet stove sees this when it gets cold. The pellet producer and sellers do not want too many pellets on hand in case there is a warm winter, when it gets cold the supply is pretty well set for the season and the demandoes up. Since there is no new supply the prices go up. The cheap sellers sell out quick and the guys with inventory can charge a premium. At some point supply runs out although usually the price just goes so high folks are priced out. Now throw in inflation. If you know that pellets will cost 10% more next year you will probably buy them sooner but that means the prices will go up in the short term until the supply catches up with the demand.  

Politically keeping the printing presses and deficit high keeps the voters happy but the short term issues is inflation and at some point it turns into hyperinflation. 

I am old enough to remember the economy post Nixon. The new President Ford had a big program Whip Inflation Now (WIN). The economy was stalled as the interest rates were record high. Money market funds were just coming out and I remember my dad showing me statements where he was getting slightly over 20% on his money. Long term mortgags rates for homes were in the 15% range. Building construction stalled and home sales were the same. My parents were looking for a retirement home and they got a great deal on home that had been on the market for three years that the owner finally dumped by dropping the price 30%. My dad was a vet so he was able to get a great deal on assuming a 8% mortage for much of the house (rates were 16%) . It took us two years to sell our old home so we rented out the new home until we sold the old one to someone moving into the area who didnt have a choice but to buy one. It took a decade for the rates to finally come down.  The Federal Reserve right now is getting ready to "tap the brakes" by allowing the rates to rise up. Its a balancing act, if they let the rates go up to fast to too high a level  the economy will stall. 

My guess right now is the building supply chain is just plain emptying out so until it fills up again prices will continue to go up.


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## vinny11950 (Apr 24, 2021)

I agree with most of what you said, Peakbagger.

However, the wonky prices we see now are supply chain disruptions from the pandemic.  We don't realize how much of a global economy we have until some other part of the world that supplies something you need can't deliver.  And there a lot of places around the world still with partially shut down economies.

I should have said that the catalyst prices going up is a result of South African mines slowing down on mining of a metal (nickel) because of low demand from the pandemic.  That base metal gives off (byproduct) rhodium which is the metal for the catalyst.  But until demand picks up again they are not increasing mining for more nickel.  Also Russia stopped mining palladium on some of their mines (who knows why).

As for housing, if the trend of people leaving apartments for houses keeps growing, then oh boy, the demand for houses would be changed for the long term because there are not enough houses for that trend (lumber included).  I imagine the cities and apartment owners will adjust by lowering rents, increasing space for apartments in new construction, maybe converting some of the unused office space into living space.  A lot will change coming out of the pandemic.


----------



## gggvan (Apr 24, 2021)

we had our 1200^3 basement framed just before the prices jumped. the builder discarded 10-15 2x4's for being "crooked" (which i cut up and burned). he said the other day he'd give one of his kids to get those back.


----------



## begreen (Apr 25, 2021)




----------



## Nealm66 (Apr 25, 2021)

Lol


----------



## johneh (Apr 28, 2021)




----------



## NickW (Apr 28, 2021)

johneh said:


> View attachment 278242


Unfortunately I'm only a thousandaire...


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## tlc1976 (Apr 28, 2021)

johneh said:


> View attachment 278242


Now worth its weight in gold.


----------



## mar13 (Apr 29, 2021)

Homebuilders respond, say lumber producers are misleadingly underrating cost of lumber in a home | Woodworking Network
					

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) has responded to a recent article from the U.S. Lumber Coalition, which attacked the NAHB's stance on lumber prices and import duties.




					www.woodworkingnetwork.com


----------



## Sawset (Apr 29, 2021)

mar13 said:


> Homebuilders respond, say lumber producers are misleadingly underrating cost of lumber in a home | Woodworking Network
> 
> 
> The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) has responded to a recent article from the U.S. Lumber Coalition, which attacked the NAHB's stance on lumber prices and import duties.
> ...


If you swap "mills", "housing", and "producers", with abc, xyz, and klm, it covers just about every industry or commodity out there. It's all over but the shoutin.


----------



## begreen (May 1, 2021)

Some perspective on the why








						Lumber is Crazy Expensive, Adding $35k to the Cost of a New House; Here's Why - News & Guts Media
					

Wood – the humble commodity used in everything from toilet paper to construction – has never been more expensive. New homeowners are feeling the pain. The cost of lumber has nearly tripled since the beginning of last year, surging as high as $1,300 per 1,000 board feet, according to Bloomberg...




					www.newsandguts.com


----------



## vinny11950 (May 2, 2021)

And not just lumber.  Computer chip shortages have caused cutbacks in auto production for different manufacturers.  Rental cars are harder to find and more expensive.  Some industries zigged when they should have zagged, and others a having real supply disruptions due to the pandemic. Even as we recover in the US, other parts of the World are still working below normal capacity because of lock downs. It looks like the US demand recovery may be ahead of everyone else, but the supply is not there to meet it.


----------



## Montanalocal (May 2, 2021)

Is there a shortage?









						“There Is No Shortage?” Train Loads Of Lumber Stacked As Far As The Eye Can See
					

Via ZeroHedge One of the most important things we’ve learned over the past year is the vulnerability of global supply chains. Most notably, supply disruptions of lumber have catapulted prices…



					www.theburningplatform.com


----------



## EbS-P (May 2, 2021)

This take seems pretty reasonable.  All big apartment and business buildings are kind here that have gone up in the last two years that I have driven by have all been stick built.   First metal frame went up 2 months ago.








						Lumber is shockingly expensive. Thanks, Obama.
					

Skyrocketing prices are the new result of old policy choices



					theweek.com


----------



## SpaceBus (May 2, 2021)

I liked the article. The link in the article takes you to Market Insider's coverage of lumber trading. Unfortunately there is no data for 1/8/20-30/8/20, but within that 30 day period the price of lumber tripled. I guess that's when people started getting the federal unemployment benefits/backpay. Perhaps the PPP loans started kicking in?


----------



## SpaceBus (May 2, 2021)

Montanalocal said:


> Is there a shortage?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That lumber may be earmarked for commercial construction.


----------



## NickW (May 2, 2021)

It looks like a lot, but I bet it wouldn't last 1 state more than a month... The amount of lumber and sheet goods that go into one house is staggering.


----------



## Bad LP (May 2, 2021)

EbS-P said:


> This take seems pretty reasonable.  All big apartment and business buildings are kind here that have gone up in the last two years that I have driven by have all been stick built.   First metal frame went up 2 months ago.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I’m getting or let’s start over. I should be getting a new standing seam roof this month. Raw roll stock went up almost .60/ft. All pricing is crazy across the board. I got no choice unless I want to risk more potential damage to a 16 yo house.
Thanks IKO for such great 30 year POS shingles.


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## begreen (May 2, 2021)

NickW said:


> It looks like a lot, but I bet it wouldn't last 1 state more than a month... The amount of lumber and sheet goods that go into one house is staggering.


Yes. People need to think a lot harder before they tear down an old house. With some investments, it may have many years life left.


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## ABMax24 (May 2, 2021)

Montanalocal said:


> Is there a shortage?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That's funny, people are so disconnected with reality these days it's laughable, reading the YouTube comments is saddening, people can't explain basic supply and demand, so it must be a conspiracy. That's not a significant amount of lumber by any means, it would build what? A few neighborhoods of single family houses, peanuts compared to the amount of houses under construction in the US. 

We have 3 mills in town, each mill right now regularly has that much lumber/OSB sitting in their warehousing yards awaiting shipment to customers. Their inventory has decreased significantly in the last year, a few years back the one mill turned one end of the employee parking lot into extra storage area, they couldn't give the lumber away.


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## mellow (May 3, 2021)

Builders right now are losing money left and right on contracted houses, they couldn't forecast lumber going up this high so buyers are getting a good deal if they bought a house a few months ago.

Many are building spec houses now since that seems the way to go with the variable costs.


----------



## webfish (May 6, 2021)

Podcast on strange economics of lumber prices. https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/the-jo...r-market/43b4d423-4754-4716-99b1-4cbb84a75366


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## Seasoned Oak (May 6, 2021)

Not just lumber . Last may a 40lb box of Ch wings Was $40 Now $144 . Probably from bars shutting down and now opening Cuz drumstix are about the same pr $23 a 40Lb Case.  Supply and Demand.


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## begreen (May 7, 2021)

Winter was rough on Southern chicks right when all the burger chains decided to amp up their chicken offerings.








						Is there a chicken shortage? How COVID, chicken sandwich war and chicken wing demand are impacting restaurants
					

Is there a national chicken wing shortage? The nation's chicken sandwich wars and cravings for comfort food during COVID have made poultry scarce.



					www.usatoday.com


----------



## clancey (May 8, 2021)

Poor Chickens--but I so love F. Chicken..clancey


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## WiscWoody (May 16, 2021)

I was just at Menards in Rice Lake WI and a standard 2x4 8’ stud is now $12.29 minus the 11% merchandise credit rebate they‘ve been running for a few months now. That’s insane... I thought when they his $8 the world had gone bonkers but there seems the Price hasn’t topped out yet for lumber. BTW I priced 7/16 4x8 OSB sheets too and they are now $55 each. I won’t even look at treated anymore. I just built one more wood rack two weeks ago with treated 2x4’s and it cost me $80 to make it And I was crying about them costing me $50 last summer to build lol.
Oh yea wire is high too, 14/2 romex is $150 for a 250’ roll and 12/2 is a whopping $225. Crazy!


----------



## brenndatomu (May 16, 2021)

WiscWoody said:


> I was just at Menards in Rice Lake WI and a standard 2x4 8’ stud is now $12.29



They must be running out...there's no way they are selling any real quantity at that price!
I'm thinking about making the garden a lil bigger this year...


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## WiscWoody (May 16, 2021)

Lol looks like the same joke here that’s been going around. When I was in California a few weeks ago I saw huge apartment complex’s being built with LOTS of lumber and I wandered how the could afford to build in this cost;y time but then when you see that a 365 square foot studio apartment rents for $2000 a month there maybe the developers figure they’ll still do good after all.


----------



## moresnow (May 17, 2021)

WiscWoody said:


> I was just at Menards in Rice Lake WI and a standard 2x4 8’ stud is now $12.29 minus the 11% merchandise credit rebate they‘ve been running for a few months now. That’s insane... I thought when they his $8 the world had gone bonkers but there seems the Price hasn’t topped out yet for lumber. BTW I priced 7/16 4x8 OSB sheets too and they are now $55 each. I won’t even look at treated anymore. I just built one more wood rack two weeks ago with treated 2x4’s and it cost me $80 to make it And I was crying about them costing me $50 last summer to build lol.
> Oh yea wire is high too, 14/2 romex is $150 for a 250’ roll and 12/2 is a whopping $225. Crazy!
> 
> View attachment 278807
> View attachment 278808



Material expense is insane. A local home builder here has 34 homes to build right now. Unbelievable. I can only imagine what it will be like to build for people with that disregard to money


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## ABMax24 (Jun 15, 2021)

Looks like some relief is coming:






						LBS
					

Get the latest Lumber price (LBS) as well as the latest futures prices and other commodity market news at Nasdaq.




					www.nasdaq.com


----------



## tlc1976 (Jun 16, 2021)

We are having problems getting steel at work. 6” tubing is on back order till November, so we are getting pipe and having to weld on stub ends of the tubing we have so hoses will fit. Having to use 12 ga steel since we can’t get 11 ga. Can’t get perforated plate so we are having to laser out our own. Been there 22 years and while steel price hikes are normal, I’ve never seen actual shortages till now.


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## MTY (Jun 16, 2021)

Even rebar is getting hard to find and expensive.


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## SpaceBus (Jun 16, 2021)

ABMax24 said:


> Looks like some relief is coming:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yesterday it fell below $1,000/mbf. I don't think it will ever go back down to $300/mbf, but we will see.


----------



## peakbagger (Jun 16, 2021)

Just in time worldwide supply chains work until they do not. its standard supply and demand economics. The little guys get hurt but the big guys rarely do as they have ways of passing on the short term cost increases.

All the big lumber companies were talking in public that they were not going to expand and it would take a couple of years to get new capacity on line. In the meantime many were planning to put new capacity on line. I have seen several major announcements of added capacity of late. At some point demand will slow down and the prices will drop until the highest cost producers drop out. Then the US firms will start screaming that they need new tariffs on Canada.

The public's collective memory/education really s**cks for basic economics. The media does not help, they want eyeballs and the way to get them is to turn everything into a crisis.


----------



## ABMax24 (Jun 16, 2021)

SpaceBus said:


> Yesterday it fell below $1,000/mbf. I don't think it will ever go back down to $300/mbf, but we will see.



No I don't see that either. Typically Western Canada has been the lowest cost producer for lumber, BC in particular has been increasing stumpage rates, and every time logging rights change hands to another company the government claws back a small portion of that land for conservation. Increased costs for logging, and reduced land area to log are not conducive to lower lumber prices, add to that increased fuel prices from higher oil prices and a carbon tax on the fuel and costs jump up again.


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## blades (Jun 16, 2021)

Greed and inflation are the 2 operative words.  With Greed being the primary driver at present.


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## begreen (Jun 16, 2021)

I think it is more a case of supply chain disruption and recovery.  There has been a surge in demand now but things are adjusting. The report today was the wholesale lumber prices are dropping.


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## peakbagger (Jun 17, 2021)

One of many marketing techniques used by online sellers is"surge" pricing. Its easy to program in an algorithm to raise the price when the demand goes up. Uber gets pounded on it frequently. Some call it automated gouging but its supply and demand. Same with wood, not enough supply to meet the demand. Those who want the limited supply the most pay more while the one with less need wait. When I go the farmers market and they have the first fresh strawberries of the season I know the seller with the earliest ones will charge more for the few baskets he has, I know if I wait a week or two more sellers will have them and the price will drop.


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## begreen (Jun 17, 2021)

Funny thing. I drive by a large mill in Darrington, WA a few times a year. When I drove by it a couple months ago, there were acres of milled wood there. To see it one would ask, what shortage? I'll be going by again tomorrow and will try to remember to take a picture.


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## Seasoned Oak (Jun 17, 2021)

Retail prices still going up.    .Today 2x4x8s were  $12.50 each  .   3 times the normal price.   12 footers were $19 @.    Had to pay as the job has to get done.


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## mellow (Jun 18, 2021)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Retail prices still going up.    .Today 2x4x8s were  $12.50 each  .   3 times the normal price.   12 footers were $19 @.    Had to pay as the job has to get done.



What gets me is if they still have the tag on the pallet the date is from early 2020 so they have stock piled quite a bit and just raising the price to make more.


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## festerw (Jun 18, 2021)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Retail prices still going up.    .Today 2x4x8s were  $12.50 each  .   3 times the normal price.   12 footers were $19 @.    Had to pay as the job has to get done.



Across the state we're seeing $8.50 for 8 footers and $16 for 12. Funny thing is the pressure treated 12s are a dollar cheaper.


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## EbS-P (Jun 18, 2021)

begreen said:


> I think it is more a case of supply chain disruption and recovery.  There has been a surge in demand now but things are adjusting. The report today was the wholesale lumber prices are dropping.


So you are saying I’m not gonna be able to send a kid to one semester of college with this stack I just cut today 
Futures markets only make the middle men money.  Suppliers and consumers are just left at their mercy.


----------



## mar13 (Jun 23, 2021)

Canadian lumber mills want new deal with U.S — and their money back
					

So far, the Biden administration hasn’t given into pleas to negotiate a new deal.




					www.politico.com


----------



## SpaceBus (Jun 23, 2021)

The price dropped below $900/mbf yesterday at the market close, which is encouraging.


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## mellow (Jun 23, 2021)

The question is how long does that take to trickle down, the prices shoot up quick, but much slower coming back down.


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## SpaceBus (Jun 23, 2021)

mellow said:


> The question is how long does that take to trickle down, the prices shoot up quick, but much slower coming back down.


I don't think we will ever see $300/mbf again, but less than $900 is much better than $1400/mbf.


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## tlc1976 (Jun 23, 2021)

It will come down until the masses decide “hey lumber is affordable again” and supply goes out again, prices go back up. Will take a few iterations of this I think.


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## begreen (Jun 23, 2021)

Lumber continues to skid below $900 with the commodity in free-fall from May highs


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## peakbagger (Jun 23, 2021)

I thinks folks are assuming markets are rational, they are not. All the producers wo have committed to cranking up new mills are going to be rushing product into the market to catch the crest, it usually leads to a glut and then they need to sell it for what ever they can get to cover their new fixed costs.  Last thing I knew there was a shortage of truckers and that can lead to mill yards full of product.


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## begreen (Jun 23, 2021)

Drove by the Hampton mill in Darrington on Sunday. It looked pretty normal. The yards were half-full of finished product and had lots of logs waiting for milling.


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## vinny11950 (Oct 17, 2021)

I was at Lowes yesterday, buying a few bags of pellets, and I decided to check out the sheathing prices.

And the sheathing prices seem to be back to what they were before the price spike caused by covid.   $35 for a sheet of plywood 23/32, about the same price I remember way back in the normal days.


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## SpaceBus (Oct 17, 2021)

According to Market Insider the price per 1,000 bdft is still double pre pandemic and rising again.









						Lumber PRICE Today | Lumber Spot Price Chart | Live Price of Lumber per Ounce | Markets Insider
					

Lumber Price: Get all information on the Price of Lumber including News, Charts and Realtime Quotes.




					markets.businessinsider.com


----------



## Nealm66 (Oct 17, 2021)

7/16 osb is still a bit higher here . Not quite double


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## vinny11950 (Oct 17, 2021)

SpaceBus said:


> According to Market Insider the price per 1,000 bdft is still double pre pandemic and rising again.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I think lumber prices are probably going to start coming down now that winter is coming, and houses are so expensive - even if you buy one, how much money do you have left over to fix it up.  

And I am thinking sheathing may be a leading indicator in the lumber sector.  I was surprised to see prices for those sheets be the same as before the pandemic.  But this is just my crude rough estimate, I could be off by a few.


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## SpaceBus (Oct 17, 2021)

You are seeing the delay in retail pricing vs market price. Lumber was cheaper a few months ago, and that has just now made it to store shelves, it's going back up. That sheathing was bought at lower market price, now the market price is higher.


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## ABMax24 (Oct 17, 2021)

I think the current blip in lumber prices is to be a short one. Much of the demand is being fueled by new house builds, interest rates in both Canada and the US are beginning to rise which will slow housing starts. People will also start going back to work and will be spending less time at home doing renovation projects. I would expect to see lumber prices crash in the next 1-2 years.


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## SpaceBus (Oct 18, 2021)

I don't think lumber prices are ever going below $400/mbft


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## peakbagger (Oct 18, 2021)

I am not so sure, the economy is in an artificial bubble fueled by fed spending. Have a "black swan" event and the interest rates will skyrocket which would stall building.  Keep in mind the Social Security checks are going to go up due to inflation the largest amount in decades. The November I bond rate will most likely be over 6%.


----------



## Bad LP (Oct 18, 2021)

peakbagger said:


> I am not so sure, the economy is in an artificial bubble fueled by fed spending. Have a "black swan" event and the interest rates will skyrocket which would stall building.  Keep in mind the Social Security checks are going to go up due to inflation the largest amount in decades. The November I bond rate will most likely be over 6%.


Problem is the 6% SS raise will be diminished by at least a 15% COL increase so a net loss of 9% or more.


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## MTY (Oct 24, 2021)

I had been watching lumber prices around town.  2X6X10' were sitting at just under $9 each.  The price dropped to $6.95 at one place so I watched other places for a few days.  No movement was apparent. So, I called the $6.95 place Friday to order two units.  I was a day late.  The price was pushed back up to within a nickel of the rest of the yards.  I am waiting once again to see if there is a drop.


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## EbS-P (Oct 24, 2021)

I talked to a fence builder yesterday. He said they are back down to an increase of 70% from pre pandemic prices.  Peaked at about 220%.


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## SpaceBus (Oct 24, 2021)

EbS-P said:


> I talked to a fence builder yesterday. He said they are back down to an increase of 70% from pre pandemic prices.  Peaked at about 220%.


Yeah, it's not 220% of pre pandemic ,but it is still pretty high. This week it was trending at $700/mbft, still twice what it was in 2019.


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## mcdougy (Mar 20, 2022)

Currently here in this part of Canada....

2x4x8 = $9.85
4x8x7/16 OSB = $62.00
4x8x3/4 spruce = $104.00

Things have crept back up here and have been holding at these numbers for the last 3+ weeks.
Finishing a basement for a client and a load of material came in at $14g and it used to be a $5g load for many years.

It's not just lumber that's has taken a jump, insulation, drywall, consumables are all up substantially. Our affordable housing shortage will  continue for the foreseeable future.

A house we built and owned in a subdivision cost us $214g all in back in 2004, we sold in 2017 for 500g, just resold again last month for 1.1million.
It's hard to get your head around......


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## ABMax24 (Mar 20, 2022)

Unfortunately the old saying "a dollar saved is worth 20 cents" is ringing true again with the high rates of inflation.


----------



## SpaceBus (Mar 20, 2022)

I'm glad I bought my sawmill back before pandemic pricing came into play.


----------



## EbS-P (Mar 20, 2022)

SpaceBus said:


> I'm glad I bought my sawmill back before pandemic pricing came into play.


And subsequent inflation and the Russian invasion effect on prices. Nothing is going back to January 2020 prices for a long time I think. 









						Aluminium PRICE Today | Aluminium Spot Price Chart | Live Price of Aluminium per Ounce | Markets Insider
					

Aluminium Price: Get all information on the Price of Aluminium including News, Charts and Realtime Quotes.




					markets.businessinsider.com


----------



## ABMax24 (Mar 20, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> And subsequent inflation and the Russian invasion effect on prices. Nothing is going back to January 2020 prices for a long time I think.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I think we can say that prices will never return to 2020 pricing, at least not on a wide scale basis.

Money supplies of Western countries have increased by staggering amounts in the last 2 years, Canada's grew by 30% alone in 2020, and I haven't seen concrete data yet for 2021 but I would assume it's about the same.

With the pandemic global production of goods hasn't increased by anywhere near this amount, and in some cases has decreased.

So we have 60% more dollars chasing the same amount of goods, the laws of supply and demand state that prices should therefore go up about 60% to compensate.

Supply chain issues also play a part, and the media loves to dwell on these topics. I really do find it interesting though as to how few reporters are even looking at money supply as a cause.

In the 1980s Canada experienced the same issues, money supply increased, inflation increased, interest rates increased, the working class effectively got poorer. We are in the beginning stages of this cycle again, except I believe on a far more global, and a far larger scale.


----------



## mcdougy (Mar 20, 2022)

ABMax24 said:


> I think we can say that prices will never return to 2020 pricing, at least not on a wide scale basis.
> 
> Money supplies of Western countries have increased by staggering amounts in the last 2 years, Canada's grew by 30% alone in 2020, and I haven't seen concrete data yet for 2021 but I would assume it's about the same.
> 
> ...


I think it has alot more to do with the fact that businesses  and corporations have accessed that 60% of new money to significantly Increase their profit margins. Either buying back stock or paying down debts. The corporations have no need currently to drop the price, many of them  are swimming in money. 
The average person has no where close to 60% more money. I wouldn't say I have lost money during covid but I'm sure not seeing  a 60% increase in disposable income. 
 In the 80's people lined up and trampled each other for a cabbage patch doll and paid ridiculous dollars to own a doll. 
The fact that people act/spend ridiculously is what the root problem is and always will be.
I'm guilty often, and doubt I can eliminate some desires.


----------



## mcdougy (Mar 20, 2022)

What I guess I'm meaning is that I agree there has been a money printer running non stop for the last 2 years, BUT most of it has ended up in the hands of those that won't suffer moving forward.


----------



## ABMax24 (Mar 20, 2022)

mcdougy said:


> I think it has alot more to do with the fact that businesses  and corporations have accessed that 60% of new money to significantly Increase their profit margins. Either buying back stock or paying down debts. The corporations have no need currently to drop the price, many of them  are swimming in money.
> The average person has no where close to 60% more money. I wouldn't say I have lost money during covid but I'm sure not seeing  a 60% increase in disposable income.
> In the 80's people lined up and trampled each other for a cabbage patch doll and paid ridiculous dollars to own a doll.
> The fact that people act/spend ridiculously is what the root problem is and always will be.
> I'm guilty often, and doubt I can eliminate some desires.



I think the whole thing was paradoxical, the money given out was supposed to help the working class make it through Covid. Which in the short term seemed to be the case, in the long term though corporations and the wealthy few latched onto that money and pocketed it. Definitely a case of short term gain for long term pain.

What's interesting though is the last 5 years has actually rewarded those that bought large purchases using credit, those that saved money and held cash have lost. 

When we bought our house 5 years ago I didn't want to pay $500k for an acreage, so we bought in town, that acreage is now $700k. When I wanted to buy a new truck 4 years ago, I wanted to wait to pay the difference between my current truck and a new one in cash, that $80k truck is now $110k. When I wanted a new boat 3 years ago I also decided to wait, it was $90k then and is $145k today.

In all those cases I would have been better off to buy those items on a wim and pay interest, because the appreciation in value in the last 5 years is far higher than the interest would have been on the borrowed money.


----------



## mcdougy (Mar 20, 2022)

ABMax24 said:


> I think the whole thing was paradoxical, the money given out was supposed to help the working class make it through Covid. Which in the short term seemed to be the case, in the long term though corporations and the wealthy few latched onto that money and pocketed it. Definitely a case of short term gain for long term pain.
> 
> What's interesting though is the last 5 years has actually rewarded those that bought large purchases using credit, those that saved money and held cash have lost.
> 
> ...


For sure....again that's the problem, people have the asset that's usually attached to debt. Disposable income looks like its on a downward cycle, mix that with rising interest rate and the common person is in a tough spot possibly. Being asset rich and cash poor will be common for some as long as home values stay and they can afford to hang onto them. Pretty sure apartment style living will be a new norm for first time homeowners.


----------



## ABMax24 (Mar 20, 2022)

mcdougy said:


> For sure....again that's the problem, people have the asset that's usually attached to debt. Disposable income looks like its on a downward cycle, mix that with rising interest rate and the common person is in a tough spot possibly. Being asset rich and cash poor will be common for some as long as home values stay and they can afford to hang onto them. Pretty sure apartment style living will be a new norm for first time homeowners.



That's right, our housing market is currently built on a mountain of debt, even those buying investment properties have piled on, and now that prices have risen out of control a landlord that bought a home 5 years ago now has enough "equity" (due to appreciation) in the house to use as collateral against the next house, further driving up demand and prices.

10% of Canada's GDP now comes from the housing market. We are in one of the biggest property bubbles ever seen, only a matter of time until it bursts.


----------



## begreen (Mar 21, 2022)

ABMax24 said:


> That's right, our housing market is currently built on a mountain of debt, even those buying investment properties have piled on, and now that prices have risen out of control a landlord that bought a home 5 years ago now has enough "equity" (due to appreciation) in the house to use as collateral against the next house, further driving up demand and prices.
> 
> 10% of Canada's GDP now comes from the housing market. We are in one of the biggest property bubbles ever seen, only a matter of time until it bursts.


Seems like 2008 all over again.


----------



## ABMax24 (Mar 21, 2022)

begreen said:


> Seems like 2008 all over again.



Yeah, some experts think our housing market is stable and can weather some kind of disturbance and prevent a repeat of 2008.

I'm not convinced this is the case.


----------



## EbS-P (Mar 21, 2022)

begreen said:


> Seems like 2008 all over again.


similar end result but underlying economic drivers are very different.  My understanding was poor lending practices  drove up sales and resulted in the creation of much riskier financial products which when one bank failed led to a domino effect and the realization of actual risk that banks had taken. (Anyone want to sum it up better please chime in).  

2020 markets while speculation exists in the real estate market (it always has) the increased demand due to lack of housing investments going back to 2008 crash.  I think the demand is real and being compounded by inflation and a prolonged period of quantitative easing (cheap money), doubly compounded by all the recent Covid related stimulus.  

I think the question is what burst the bubble?


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## begreen (Mar 21, 2022)

ABMax24 said:


> Yeah, some experts think our housing market is stable and can weather some kind of disturbance and prevent a repeat of 2008.
> 
> I'm not convinced this is the case.


We have a lot of housing speculation in the area and it is not just American buyers. They have driven real estate costs astronomically. We're in a situation where returns on low-risk assets are close to nothing, and the cost of borrowing to speculate is next to nothing. As a result,  people who play with other people’s money have gone wild. Now market volatility is setting in. China is in the middle of a real-estate crisis and the effects of Russian sanctions are starting to have a ripple effect. Margin calls are coming due and the big players are having to liquidate assets which may crash their prices.

To quote Charles Gave:
 "Looking back at 2008, we often think it was a quick crisis. It actually unfolded over months, with long stretches during which the problems seemed solved. They weren’t. This updated version of 2008 may only be beginning."


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## peakbagger (Mar 21, 2022)

The big change on this go around is a lot of the foreclosed homes that were sold in large blocks for 10 cents on dollar during the last crisis were bought by large hedge funds with both US and foreign dollars. This took a lot of housing off the market and turned it into rentals. This has driven rental costs up as entry level homes are just not getting built. 

The last go around was fueled by liar loans and other excess's where mortage firms and banks had no skin in the game, they wrote the paper and then the paper was sold to investments firms and banks to be formed into large blocks of loans that were cut up into pieces and sold as high yield safe investments protected by Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) which were guarantees that were not backed up by reserves. There are some checks and balances in place but they just slow down a market crash as at some point the owners cannot make the payments and the intermediate parties reserves run out.


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## ABMax24 (Mar 21, 2022)

begreen said:


> We have a lot of housing speculation in the area and it is not just American buyers. They have driven real estate costs astronomically. We're in a situation where returns on low-risk assets are close to nothing, and the cost of borrowing to speculate is next to nothing. As a result,  people who play with other people’s money have gone wild. Now market volatility is setting in. China is in the middle of a real-estate crisis and the effects of Russian sanctions are starting to have a ripple effect. Margin calls are coming due and the big players are having to liquidate assets which may crash their prices.
> 
> To quote Charles Gave:
> "Looking back at 2008, we often think it was a quick crisis. It actually unfolded over months, with long stretches during which the problems seemed solved. They weren’t. This updated version of 2008 may only be beginning."



I can see where your area is seeing a lot of housing speculation. We are starting to see more here to, investors are selling off their million dollar homes in Toronto and Vancouver and looking for cheaper investment property to buy elsewhere, Edmonton is seeing a housing rush right now because of this. Many places have seen home prices rise 20% in the last year.

Agricultural land is also being bought up at an alarming rate by investors from China and Hong Kong. A farm will be sold out at auction and one foreign entity will come in and buy the entire lot.


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## EbS-P (Mar 21, 2022)

Kids a getting a Gaga ball pit.   Decision was made to use Landscape Timbers instead of dimensional lumber.  25$ an 8 foot side plus screws and eyebolts.  2x6 is 12$ each.


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## johneh (Mar 21, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> Kids a getting a Gaga ball pit. Decision was made to use Landscape Timbers instead of dimensional lumber. 25$ an 8 foot side plus screws and eyebolts. 2x6 is 12$ each.


Now I know I am old 
what the f--- is Gaga Ball?


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## begreen (Mar 21, 2022)

johneh said:


> Now I know I am old
> what the f--- is Gaga Ball?


Somehow I suspect it's not this








						How to Buy Tickets to Lady Gaga’s Chromatica Ball Tour
					

Lady Gaga’s Chromatica Ball Tour is expected to be one of the hottest events of the summer. The pop star will travel across the globe, starting in July, in support of her sixth studio album “Chromatica.” Gaga initially planned to go on tour immediately following the album’s 2020 release but...




					news.yahoo.com


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## EbS-P (Mar 21, 2022)

johneh said:


> Now I know I am old
> what the f--- is Gaga Ball?











						Gaga - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				




I like to think of them as kid corrals. 

They will sell you brackets.  500$









						GaGa Ball Pits Brackets | Coach Cliff | GaGa Ball Pits
					

Coach Cliff's GaGa Ball Pits Brackets are the best pits brackets that you can get for GaGa Ball. Call us today at 847-573-2377




					www.gagaballpits.com
				




Could buy it made out of plastic. 1500$. 









						GaGa Ball Pits - Playground Equipment USA
					

Easy to install — you don’t need any expertise or special tools to put them in. Each kit comes complete with stanchions and borders to create the pit. Playground Plastic borders are a great way to create your GaGa Ball Pits. Our border timbers have no splinters (unlike wood) or preservative...




					www.playgroundequipmentusa.com


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## blades (Mar 21, 2022)

back in the day ( eons ago) it was called dodge ball. similar rules . played inthe gym , two  teams


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## EbS-P (Mar 21, 2022)

Yep dodge ball in a  small confined space where Head and body shots don’t count and you can’t actually pick up the ball. Generation alpha (I had to look that up) is going to be a much gentler kinder generation I’m sure


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## johneh (Mar 21, 2022)

Thanks, guys 
New I wasn't too old to learn something


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## mcdougy (Mar 21, 2022)




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## stoveliker (Mar 21, 2022)

peakbagger said:


> This took a lot of housing off the market and turned it into rentals. This has driven rental costs up


I'm not sure how that makes sense. Getting owned homes of the home-sale market and turned into rentals generally drives rental prices down as it increases the supply of rental homes.

The fact that rental homes became more expensive is *despite* the above, not because of the above.


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## tlc1976 (Mar 21, 2022)

Wow I hadn’t checked all winter. Last fall I got a pile of 2x4x8 for some shelves for 3 something each at the big orange store.

I just bought insulation for my attic yesterday, spent $450. Figured I’d get it before the snow goes away and building season starts. Don’t know how much it was previously. My area calls for R49 in attics. All I got is R19 in the rafters and some of it is torn and one piece is falling down. So I’m patching up the rafter stuff since it’s already there and 95% ok. And putting R13 in the knee walls and R38 on the floors. Neither of those has anything there right now so it should be a definite improvement.


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## mcdougy (Mar 21, 2022)

If you can not find a house to buy, you rent. If real estate prices rise so does the rental prices.....At least that's what's happening here.

We have been seeing astronomical prices with multiple offers over asking price.....
example..... a run down 22 acre (floodplain land) house and horsebarn went on the market for 2.3 million. In 4 days on the market it had 14 offers. It sold for 3 million.
Also here  a subdivision home was commonly  getting bully offers,  or if it went the full 5 days  (yes that's how crazy it is here, only 5 days on market to submit your offer) a house would often get 30+ offers and averaging 110k over asking price. (Average sale price in my area has hit 715k for q detached house)
If the said house was bought by an investor, the rent would be on a 3 bed 3 bath home in the 3k range a month. 
Its mind numbing.
 As I stated earlier, we sold a house in 2017 and in 2022 it sold for twice  as much....500k in 2017 - 1.1mil in 2022.and no work had been done to the home since our 2017 sale.
I'm timid to get our current property evaluated because it would probably make we want to move to a foreign country and retire at 46.
 I don't want to do that, but I'm guessing our investment  has close to quadrupled  in the last 4 years.


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## stoveliker (Mar 21, 2022)

mcdougy said:


> If real estate prices rise so does the rental prices.....At least that's what's happening here.


That works like that if supply in both sectors remains the same.  The fact that supply moves from one to the other sector convolutes this.


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## ABMax24 (Mar 21, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> I'm not sure how that makes sense. Getting owned homes of the home-sale market and turned into rentals generally drives rental prices down as it increases the supply of rental homes.
> 
> The fact that rental homes became more expensive is *despite* the above, not because of the above.





stoveliker said:


> That works like that if supply in both sectors remains the same.  The fact that supply moves from one to the other sector convolutes this.




Not really, in my area rent is proportional to the mortgage paid on the rental property by the landowner. Competition in the ownership market drives up prices, landlords are unwilling to rent a property below the monthly payment they pay on the mortgage, which in turn drives up rental rates. People don't buy homes to rent out of the goodness of their heart, they buy and rent a house to make a profit.

Larger centers are different, but in smaller areas like mine people only rent because they are short term residents or because they simply can't get a mortgage. Its a system that is flawed, a person can pay $2,000/month in rent for years, but can't get approved for a mortgage at $1500/month.


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## stoveliker (Mar 21, 2022)

ABMax24 said:


> Not really, in my area rent is proportional to the mortgage paid on the rental property by the landowner. Competition in the ownership market drives up prices, landlords are unwilling to rent a property below the monthly payment they pay on the mortgage, which in turn drives up rental rates. People don't buy homes to rent out of the goodness of their heart, they buy and rent a house to make a profit.


That (increases in rent) is thus only the case for properties that move from one segment of the market to the other - because the mortgage payments of existing rental properties do not change with whatever the market is doing unless they are sold to another landlord. And those that go from one landlord to another landlord will be a small fraction of the total rental inventory?

Unless landlords are ruthlessly increasing rents because their neighbors are doing so when they have to cover the higher (new) mortgage.

I agree about the system being flawed - see my last sentence above. And home prices are outrageous (mine went up by 50% in 5 years - hypothetically as I'm not selling).


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## ABMax24 (Mar 21, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> That (increases in rent) is thus only the case for properties that move from one segment of the market to the other - because the mortgage payments of existing rental properties do not change with whatever the market is doing unless they are sold to another landlord. And those that go from one landlord to another landlord will be a small fraction of the total rental inventory?
> 
> Unless landlords are ruthlessly increasing rents because their neighbors are doing so when they have to cover the higher (new) mortgage.
> 
> I agree about the system being flawed - see my last sentence above. And home prices are outrageous (mine went up by 50% in 5 years - hypothetically as I'm not selling).



Landlords charge the going rate for rent, whether or not that is defined as ruthless is a matter of opinion, but if you were a landlord and you were charging $1500 for rent for your previous tenants and they move out, but now the going rate is $2000 what would you do? Most of us (myself included) would charge $2000.

Of course this all relies on a market where there are more tenants than available rentals, I'm sure rent is cheap in a place like Detroit, but who wants to live there?


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## stoveliker (Mar 21, 2022)

lol, Detroit. (The same can be said about Long Island - though it's b/c it's too &(#) expensive here...)

But is the flux in the rental market (in either property or renters moving) so large that that actually makes such *average* price increases possible?


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## mcdougy (Mar 21, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> lol, Detroit. (The same can be said about Long Island - though it's b/c it's too &(#) expensive here...)
> 
> But is the flux in the rental market (in either property or renters moving) so large that that actually makes such *average* price increases possible?


Yes, that's what's happening here. The province has a 600k shortfall on housing. They expect Ontario to build at an unprecedented pace for the next 10 years to catch up to the shortfall. Again I don't understand how this will be achieved considering a new single detached home has a ticket price north of 1 million. The 45'x75' lot is selling for more than 250k then add in building costs, then profit and voila 1 million dollars for a code minimum home with property tax of 10k+ a year......


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## firefighterjake (Mar 22, 2022)

johneh said:


> Now I know I am old
> what the f--- is Gaga Ball?





For the record I had no idea what Gaga Ball was either . . .


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## mcdougy (Mar 22, 2022)

London's Housing and Rental Prices Continue to Soar in Early 2022
					

Housing and Rental Prices rose dramatically in January 2022 in popular London, Ontario




					www.rentalsfornewcomers.com
				




This article sums up what is going on, fairly well, in the housing market in this area.


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## stoveliker (Mar 22, 2022)

firefighterjake said:


> For the record I had no idea what Gaga Ball was either . . .




Me neither. I appreciate that this forum taught me a new thing. Again.


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## mcdougy (Mar 22, 2022)

Builders can't keep up with London-area's population boom: census
					






					lfpress.com
				




Here's a article today giving a take on what's going on in housing in the area.


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