# Tariff Wars



## wooduser (Dec 3, 2018)

Are the tariffs on steel having an affect on price,  with stoves shipped into the United States,  such as from Canada?

If they haven't,  are they likely to?  Any idea how that might affect product availability and competition between American and Canadian manufacturers?


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## bholler (Dec 3, 2018)

wooduser said:


> Are the tariffs on steel having an affect on price,  with stoves shipped into the United States,  such as from Canada?
> 
> If they haven't,  are they likely to?  Any idea how that might affect product availability and competition between American and Canadian manufacturers?


They are having an effect on all steel products even ones made here with amarican steel.  Like it or not it is a glodal market and global changes effect domestic prices as well.


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## wooduser (Dec 3, 2018)

bholler said:


> They are having an effect on all steel products even ones made here with amarican steel.  Like it or not it is a glodal market and global changes effect domestic prices as well.




How much?  And who is being advantaged or disadvantaged?


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## bholler (Dec 3, 2018)

wooduser said:


> How much?  And who is being advantaged or disadvantaged?


We have seen increases as much as 20%.  And the end user is being disadvantaged.


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## ratsrepus (Dec 3, 2018)

this could become very political,  So Im not going to comment. Id like to


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## bholler (Dec 3, 2018)

ratsrepus said:


> this could become very political,  So Im not going to comment. Id like to


I am sure that was the intention of the origonal poster.  It will be closed quickly if it gets out of hand.


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## PaulOinMA (Dec 3, 2018)

If anyone wants to read a really good book: "Making Steel: Sparrows Point and the Ride and Ruin of American Industrial Might."  Great read.  Not too late to ask Santa. 

https://www.amazon.com/dp/0252072332/?tag=hearthamazon-20


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## PaulOinMA (Dec 4, 2018)

I have a BBQ smoker.  A backyard one, not a trailer, and even that's 400+ pounds.  I imagine it's hard being in the business of making smokers these days, too.


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## osagebow (Dec 5, 2018)

Steel changes fast. The "Dorothy" furnace in Duquesne my father worked at won an industry award in December '83 and was slated to be closed 5 months later.  Chipped ham sammiches....


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## blades (Dec 5, 2018)

tariffs- ink wasn't even on the paper yet and steel prices jumped 10-15% - similar to petroleum products somebody sneezes in the mid east and fuel prices jump.   If they would do away with futures trading likely would not see this. Was a time when that didn't exist- things were not so volatile.


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## Seasoned Oak (Oct 2, 2019)

China removes tariffs on yet another 2 million metric tons of Soy Beans. HUGE win for  the American Farmer! Media silent!  So it appears the threat of tariffs can have positive results for the us. To all the tariff naysayers ,tariffs are not the end goal but the bargaining chip .


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## Seasoned Oak (Oct 2, 2019)

PaulOinMA said:


> I have a BBQ smoker.  A backyard one, not a trailer, and even that's 400+ pounds.  I imagine it's hard being in the business of making smokers these days, too.


I want one of those!


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## bholler (Oct 2, 2019)

Seasoned Oak said:


> China removes tariffs on yet another 2 million metric tons of Soy Beans. HUGE win for  the American Farmer! Media silent!  So it appears the threat of tariffs can have positive results for the us. To all the tariff naysayers ,tariffs are not the end goal but the bargaining chip .


I hope it works out in our favor and goes against historical trends.


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## PaulOinMA (Oct 2, 2019)

Seasoned Oak said:


> … I want one of those!



It's a Pitt's & Spitt's U2436.  Got it in 2009 off the classifieds at thesmokering.com, barely used, for 1/3 the price of new.  Looks like it was only used a few times.  Person was having a house built and was putting in a stone backyard BBQ.





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						Custom made Smokers from Houston, Texas by Pitts & Spitts
					

Pitts & Spitts smokers are the best in not only Texas, but in the world! Using only the highest quality materials, our smokers are built to last a lifetime.




					pittsandspitts.com
				




Check out  the classidfieds there.  I have other BBQ web sites bookmarked, too.  let me see if they also have classifieds.






						The Smoke Ring
					

Joomla! - the dynamic portal engine and content management system




					www.thesmokering.com


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## PaulOinMA (Oct 2, 2019)

Here are the other BBQ sites I have bookmarked ...





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						The BBQ BRETHREN FORUMS. - Powered by vBulletin
					

The BBQ Brethren Forums. The Premiere BBQ Knowledge base on the Internet.



					www.bbq-brethren.com
				









						THEQJOINT.COM
					

Forsale Lander




					www.theqjoint.com


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## Seasoned Oak (Oct 3, 2019)

Even though Europe has been sanctioned by the WTO for Subsidizing airbus they still wont lower their tariffs defying the courts they agreed to comply with.  Most other countries play dirty when it comes to trade as there is so much to profit from by cheating. Been dumping on us for too long.


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## Sawset (Oct 3, 2019)

bholler said:


> They are having an effect on all steel products even ones made here with amarican steel.  Like it or not it is a glodal market and global changes effect domestic prices as well.



I'm not seeing it.
Prices seem to be a speculation blip, then business as usual.
What am I missing.

Steel import price index








						Import Price Index (End Use): Iron and Steel Mill Products - Semifinished
					

Graph and download economic data for Import Price Index (End Use): Iron and Steel Mill Products - Semifinished (IR141) from Dec 1980 to Sep 2022 about end use, iron, mills, steel, imports, production, price index, indexes, price, and USA.



					fred.stlouisfed.org
				




Steel price index charts search




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						Search Results | FRED | St. Louis Fed
					





					fred.stlouisfed.org
				




Individual price index charts by catagory








						Producer Price Index by Commodity: Metals and Metal Products: Iron and Steel
					

Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Commodity: Metals and Metal Products: Iron and Steel (WPU101) from Jan 1926 to Sep 2022 about iron, steel, metals, commodities, PPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.



					fred.stlouisfed.org
				











						Producer Price Index by Commodity: Metals and Metal Products: Steel Mill Products
					

Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Commodity: Metals and Metal Products: Steel Mill Products (WPU1017) from Jan 1939 to Sep 2022 about mills, steel, metals, commodities, PPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.



					fred.stlouisfed.org
				











						Producer Price Index by Commodity: Metals and Metal Products: Fabricated Steel Plate
					

Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Commodity: Metals and Metal Products: Fabricated Steel Plate (WPU10760102) from Dec 2001 to Sep 2022 about fabrication, steel, metals, commodities, PPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.



					fred.stlouisfed.org


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## PaulOinMA (Oct 3, 2019)

The place where I bought a skid plate from has halted production for now due to raw material costs.









						VW Skid Plates
					

Protect your fragile aluminum oil pan! Dieselgeek skid plates protect your VW oil pan, transmission, and other expensive parts. Get your car protected now!




					www.dieselgeek.com
				




_Due to the US tariffs on aluminum and steel, the price we must pay for those materials has moved far too high to allow us to produce new skid plates in the near future. We are hoping that the tariffs get lifted soon but if that doesn't happen it will be uneconomical to run more skid plates until new US aluminum and steel mills come online sometime in 2020. If you see your car listed to the left we still have skid plates in stock for those cars. _


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## begreen (Oct 3, 2019)

Lots of infrastructure projects are dealing with cost overruns due to the tariffs.








						Steel Tariffs and Hot Economy Take Toll on Infrastructure Projects
					

State and local governments could have to pay millions more to finance projects as the Trump administration’s steel tariffs, combined with a strong economy and a tight labor market, push up construction costs.




					www.wsj.com
				




And now more tariffs are going into effect. So far they have cost the American taxpayers about $80 billion.








						Tracking the Economic Impact of Tariffs
					

How are tariffs and trade tensions affecting the U.S. economy? Tax Foundation experts provide leading analysis on the economic impact of Trump's trade war.




					taxfoundation.org
				



.


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## Sawset (Oct 3, 2019)

begreen said:


> Lots of infrastructure projects are dealing with cost overruns due to the tariffs.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That's one perspective from a news organization.
Or another:









						The Steel Tariff and Construction Cost: Putting It Into Context
					

On March 8, 2018, President Trump signed an order to place a 25% and 10% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, respectively, effective March 23, 2018. The new tariff granted a temporary exemption to certain countries including Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, South Korea, and the...




					archinect.com


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## begreen (Oct 3, 2019)

Good article, so was the conservative WSJ article. The architect article is mostly theoretical and ends up saying - stayed tuned. It touches on two things that large infrastructure projects may experience. In reality there are also delays and uncertainty due to escalating tariffs which have boosted costs considerably in addition to the tariff costs. The actual result is infrastructure costs are coming in much higher.




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						Steel Tariffs Impact U.S. Infrastructure Projects
					

Infrastructure projects across the U.S. are not facing approval challenges lately as lawmakers give bipartisan support to funding. However, some projects may have another hurdle to jump—cost increases because of President Donald Trump’s steel tariffs. News outlets reported earlier this week that...



					www.pumpsandsystems.com
				











						Backfire Economics: Steel Tariffs Take a Toll on Infrastructure Projects
					

More evidence that Trump's trade war and steel tariffs are backfiring, and putting the US economy at great risk.




					www.aei.org
				











						Trump's Tariffs Continue Harm on Construction
					

Whether you're protecting yourself from cost increases, delays, or default, the following advice can ensure your construction contract endures Trump's tariffs



					www.bestlawyers.com


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## begreen (Oct 3, 2019)

Big infrastructure projects are still going on with the costs passed along, often to the taxpayer. Unfortunately the additional costs are not so easily absorbed by small businesses. Many are hurting and will be hurt more by the Oct. and Dec. increases. That is not good. Small businesses are the backbone of our economy.








						Small Businesses’ Faith in Economy Hits Low on Tariff Uncertainty
					

Higher tariffs on Chinese imports are adding costs and uncertainty for small businesses and dimming their outlook for the U.S. economy, according to a survey of more than 670 firms.




					www.wsj.com


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## PaulOinMA (Oct 3, 2019)

The guy that is dieselgeek.com, above, is a small business.  No place for him to absorb a tariff of a raw material, so he had to suspend offering a product.  His skid plates were really good, too.  Liked it a lot.


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## PaulOinMA (Oct 3, 2019)

I just noticed … has your title always been "Mooderator," not Moderator?


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## Sawset (Oct 3, 2019)

Where I work, we use many 1000s of tons per year of sheet and plate steel, aluminum, stainless, galvanized, galvanneal, in many different grades thicknesses and finishes.  What I'm seeing is current prices paid for incoming raw stock have stayed steady or gone down slightly from a year ago, but not up.  Looking at the commodity charts above, I would have to agree with those.  As far as other prices for goods coming in from abroad, I don't have enough contact with to comment.


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## bholler (Oct 3, 2019)

Sawset said:


> Where I work, we use many 1000s of tons per year of sheet and plate steel, aluminum, stainless, galvanized, galvanneal, in many different grades thicknesses and finishes.  What I'm seeing is current prices paid for incoming raw stock have stayed steady or gone down slightly from a year ago, but not up.  Looking at the commodity charts above, I would have to agree with those.  As far as other prices for goods coming in from abroad, I don't have enough contact with to comment.


Ok but the prices spiked when the initial tariffs were introduced.  And they haven't gone down at least we haven't seen any reduction.  And we were just told to expect a price increase again the first of the year as usual.  All I know is my costs jumped considerably when the tariffs started and they certainly haven't gone down.


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## Seasoned Oak (Oct 3, 2019)

Its an old game these countries play subsidize your companies and devalue your currency to drive the competition  out of business, it worked with solar,steel even aircraft, then the market is yours alone. Always short term pain associated with correcting that,so most politicians just ignored it in the past. China knows weve never had the stomach for that,and all the whining from the public which is why they have been playing us for so long. Plus they could care less what the public thinks in a communist country.


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## begreen (Oct 3, 2019)

World economies are not strong right now. I am concerned that the new Oct. and Dec. tariffs may end up starting a global recession. Trade wars help no one in the long run. In Ireland, food and drink make up 2/3d of their exports. We are not immune if a major recession snowballs in Europe.


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## Jan Pijpelink (Oct 3, 2019)

begreen said:


> World economies are not strong right now. I am concerned that the new Oct. and Dec. tariffs may end up starting a global recession. Trade wars help no one in the long run. In Ireland, food and drink make up 2/3d of their exports. We are not immune if a major recession snowballs in Europe.


I recently read that Singapore is facing a major recession (like the one they had in 1997/1998 which was the cause of me losing my job there) because the most important trade partner, China, cannot pay for the goods made in Singapore, due to the high tariffs China has to pay for the US made products and high US import duties for China made products. This is a global mess and will get a lot worse before it gets better. I will be in Singapore next month and will ask my business partners there about the situation. I was in Korea 2 weeks ago and heard similar stories. Scary.


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## begreen (Oct 3, 2019)

It only takes one domino to fall and set off a larger chain of events. The US economy is not that strong right now either and this time it's corporate debt that is creating the bubble.


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## WinterinWI (Oct 3, 2019)

begreen said:


> It only takes one domino to fall and set off a larger chain of events. The US economy is not that strong right now either and this time it's corporate debt that is creating the bubble.



Wow, sounds like we are all doomed. I'm sure your solution to the China "issue" is much more enlightened. Can I ask what it is? 

The manufacturing regulations you regularly propose on US manufacturers would be much more damaging to the US economy than slapping a few tariffs on imports. 

I also take issue with doing so much business with a communist country that suppresses free speech and is big on censorship, but that is just me. I know others feel differently.


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## Seasoned Oak (Oct 3, 2019)

By most standards the US economy is booming. We are now the worlds top petroleum producer. Most other indicators inching up. Low inflation ,healthy job creation ,good GDP growth .But it depends which study you read ,there are as many different opinions on this as climate change.  https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...2019-strengths-jobs-low-inflation/2417937002/


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## Sawset (Oct 3, 2019)

A pricing scenario, one that was eluded to in one of the first links I sent - a what if, but I think relevant:
Stove weighs 500lb
80% of that is iron, remainder glass, bricks, fasteners, leaves 400lb
Steel price - $.40/lb = $160
Steel tarriff 25%
Steel price now - $.50/lb = $200
$3000 stove increased to $3040
Assuming all imported steels, from china, and all of it has tarriff applied:
How much talk of price increases is coming from:
1)  pent up desire to pass along costs that they haven't been able to be due to constraints beyond the sellers control, ie market conditions.
2) how much is due to epa mandate
3) how much is actual material pricing


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## semipro (Oct 3, 2019)

I'm just hoping the pain we feel in the U.S., whether real or perceived, results in some changes with respect to leveling the economic playing field and increased respect for intellectual property rights in China.  I believe the latter will ultimately result in more economic benefit to the U.S.  We're being robbed blind on that front.


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## Jan Pijpelink (Oct 3, 2019)

I was in Korea, Germany and The Netherlands 2 weeks ago. Scientific instrument manufacturers have seen a 30+% drop in export to the US due to the tariffs. People are far from happy.


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## Jan Pijpelink (Oct 3, 2019)

The company I work at (100% employee owned) has China among the emerging countries. We export a lot to China (scientific equipment), we are not happy either.


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## Seasoned Oak (Oct 4, 2019)

Its hard for these countries to accept equal terms ,zero tariffs both ways and a level playing field since they have been exploiting us for so long, but what ever it takes because Robots and AI are just around the corner and we will need to retain all the jobs we can to deal with that alone.


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## begreen (Oct 4, 2019)

Seasoned Oak said:


> By most standards the US economy is booming. We are now the worlds top petroleum producer. Most other indicators inching up. Low inflation ,healthy job creation ,good GDP growth .But it depends which study you read ,there are as many different opinions on this as climate change.  https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...2019-strengths-jobs-low-inflation/2417937002/


We've been top oil producer for a while now. Manufacturing is down, durable goods orders are down, transportation is down. These are frequent headwinds. And we have an inverted yield curve warning of recession. Consumer spending is doing most of the work right now and if that slumps there will be a downturn.


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## Jan Pijpelink (Oct 5, 2019)

Define "top oil producer". I know we have a lot of oil from the shale drilling. As a petroleum chemist, I am not a fan of shale drilling.  

I was in India in August.  A company called Reliance (the 7th largest petrochemical company in the world) has a 2 million barrel per day refinery in Jamnagar. They are currently constructing another 2 million barrel per day refinery and both will be connected to a 4 million barrel plant. Consider the largest US refinery is Motiva with 625, 000 barrels per day.

Also good to know that the same Reliance owned 70% of the Marcella shale project in PA (Chevron owned 30%).  Reliance sold their stake late last year. Based on the daily insight information I get, Saudi Arabia is still #1.


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## SpaceBus (Oct 5, 2019)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Its hard for these countries to accept equal terms ,zero tariffs both ways and a level playing field since they have been exploiting us for so long, but what ever it takes because Robots and AI are just around the corner and we will need to retain all the jobs we can to deal with that alone.


I don't understand why you keep saying other nations are exploiting the US. Walmart and all the other junk stores in the US switched production to China. China has been exploited for their slave labor for decades, before that it was immigrant workers in the US from abroad, and before that it was native peoples of North America. Consumers here are exploited for their money, but hardly for resources. India, China, Taiwan, and many other Asian countries have suffered greatly from western greed. Phones, laptops, and most other consumer goods and electronics are made in Asia, that's exploitation. The Mekong River is blue from dye for Levi's jeans, that's exploitation


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## EatenByLimestone (Oct 5, 2019)

begreen said:


> We've been top oil producer for a while now. Manufacturing is down, durable goods orders are down, transportation is down. These are frequent headwinds. And we have an inverted yield curve warning of recession. Consumer spending is doing most of the work right now and if that slumps there will be a downturn.




Can somebody explain to me how an inverted yield curve warns of recession?  I hear the bubble heads on tv reporting it, but dont see how it warns of a recession.


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## Sawset (Oct 5, 2019)

Resession periods in gray.


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## EatenByLimestone (Oct 5, 2019)

So explain it.  How is an inverted yield curve bad?


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## EatenByLimestone (Oct 5, 2019)

The 2 arent related, but look cool put together.


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## Z33 (Oct 5, 2019)

An inverted yield curve does not cause a recession. It is an indicator of a potential recession.

When the yield curve inverts, short term bonds yield more than long term bonds certerus parabum.

This basically signifies investors are wary of further capital investments and there for buy bonds for the safety.

As demand for these Long term bonds increase their yield decreases below that of the short term bonds causing an inversion of the yield curve. 

Long story it's a sign of capital Investment flight. No capital Investment =declining returns.

This is a terrible over simplification with many missing nuances but this is hearthnot an economist forum.


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## Seasoned Oak (Oct 5, 2019)

SpaceBus said:


> I don't understand why you keep saying other nations are exploiting the US.


China has been charging us 25 % tariffs and up for decades. we have been charging them 3% . Until now no made a serious effort to get a better deal, it was easier to let them keep exploiting us. Japan and South Korea have been dumping millions of cars here for decades while doing everything possible to keep our products out by making them too expensive there.(tariffs, needless inspections ect)  Many other countries have tariffs as high as 100% . Ours mostly3% . So thats why.  Im not going back 300 yrs to the indians or 100 yrs to the chinese laborors to set trade policy today. Its sad that you have such poor view of your own country ,but you have a lot of company lately.  As far as walmart ,yes they are making big bucks taking advantage of our lopsided trade relationship with china.  If that improves walmart may have to source mechandise elsewhere or possibly right here.


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## EatenByLimestone (Oct 5, 2019)

Z33 said:


> This is a terrible over simplification with many missing nuances but this is hearthnot an economist forum.




True, but many spit out what the TV tells them without looking further into the data. 

My oversimplification goes like this:

Price goes up an down with demand on a bond.

Assuming an equal rate (payment) on them, you want the lowest price, which would give you the highest yield. 

The talking heads could make the information easier to understand by just stating that more people want bonds and that is driving the price up/yield down.  

So, why is there all this demand?  What are the yields offered in other parts of the world?


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## Z33 (Oct 5, 2019)

EatenByLimestone said:


> True, but many spit out what the TV tells them without looking further into the data.
> 
> My oversimplification goes like this:
> 
> ...




Yields in Europe and most of the rest of the developed world are negative. That's a good portion of what's driving demand for American bonds. 

Would you rather have a US 30 year treasury yielding 2.1% or a 30 year Euro zone bond yielding -0.3

Even if the US bond doesn't beat inflation it beats paying a bank to keep your money.


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## SpaceBus (Oct 5, 2019)

Seasoned Oak said:


> China has been charging us 25 % tariffs and up for decades. we have been charging them 3% . Until now no made a serious effort to get a better deal, it was easier to let them keep exploiting us. Japan and South Korea have been dumping millions of cars here for decades while doing everything possible to keep our products out by making them too expensive there.(tariffs, needless inspections ect)  Many other countries have tariffs as high as 100% . Ours mostly3% . So thats why.  Im not going back 300 yrs to the indians or 100 yrs to the chinese laborors to set trade policy today. Its sad that you have such poor view of your own country ,but you have a lot of company lately.  As far as walmart ,yes they are making big bucks taking advantage of our lopsided trade relationship with china.  If that improves walmart may have to source mechandise elsewhere or possibly right here.



What happens when suddenly you can't pay slave wages to make consumer goods? If you think $1,000 for a cell phone is expensive, just wait until you have to pay someone more than $3/day to make them. You simultaneously want the economy to be like it was in the early 60's, wages to stay the same, but goods to also stay the same. It's just not going to happen. You are absolutely right, I dog on this country a lot, but It's my right. I'm absolutely lucky to be born here, and as a token of my appreciation I joined the army with no intention of getting out. I learned a lot more about my country than I thought I knew. Who cares if Chinese people have to pay a ton of money for American cars? It has nothing to do with giving American companies, which are really global companies, a bad deal. Americans benefits from low tariffs on incoming goods, especially when very little is actually made here. Perhaps the point of the tariffs is to ease Americans into paying what goods should actually cost rather than just increase the prices over night. 

I do try to buy American made goods and use US based services whenever my budget will allow. Most of what we eat is grown or raised locally, I shop at small businesses, and do my best to never give my money to large companies whenever possible. I don't hate America or anything, I just hate what our government does to third world countries. Intentionally or not our government causes a great deal of destabilization and mayhem with their constant meddling in global affairs. I'm not saying our government is the only one, just the worst offender. We all want to cry about other nations getting caught meddling in our elections, but several dictators across the world were installed directly by the CIA and other arms of the US government. Most of the time it's not even a secret. Also look at 9/11, regardless if they did it or not, our government gave the Taliban weapons and training, greatly increasing the reach and power of a tiny band of warlords and freedom fighters. THIS IS STILL A PROBLEM TODAY, 30+ YEARS LATER, THANKS CIA!


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## Seasoned Oak (Oct 5, 2019)

YEA i know its a mess, but its our mess, and its up to us to clean it up. Since this thread is about tariffs ill stick to that. Just because we  let it slide for so long it seems that some think we have no right to mess with it. If we do in fact get the trade thing right in most cases, i think it l will bode well for us going forward cuz otherwise we wont have much of an economy left just selling each other foreign made goods.  Im for no tariffs either way ,that would be a huge improvement and much closer to that level playing field!


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## Seasoned Oak (Oct 5, 2019)

Z33 said:


> Yields in Europe and most of the rest of the developed world are negative. That's a good portion of what's driving demand for American bonds.
> Would you rather have a US 30 year treasury yielding 2.1% or a 30 year Euro zone bond yielding -0.3
> Even if the US bond doesn't beat inflation it beats paying a bank to keep your money.


No money in just having money today,you have to do something concrete with it. I didnt think i was doing that well getting 8 to15%
on all my investments until the interest rates collapsed in 08. Still getting 8 to 15% since the 90s right through the resession until now so im quite satisfied in this market.


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