# Corona Virus



## MTY

Who is worried?  I mentioned today that I was not, but at the first hint of ugly I was heading to Costco for a truck load of grub and going into hiding.  The spousal unit said that we might have to hide out for 30-40 days.  I said I was good to go for a year.  However, I just cannot grasp things getting as bad as they were with the Spanish Flu.  
We as a lot are probably more independent, stubborn, and self reliant than the greater portion of the population, but does that cause us to downplay the significance of this bug?


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## begreen

The death rate is about the same as the Spanish Flu so there is reason for concern. It's very contagious, but at least it is nothing like Ebola which was 50%! Thank goodness we reacted quickly then. The main concern is that politics will get in the way of quickly protecting Americans. This already appears to be happening. We need the CDC firing on all cylinders right now.


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## peakbagger

I would question the Spanish Flu statistic. Its source appears to be the Chinese government which needs to be taken with a big grain of salt. Ideally now that the cat is out of the bag, I expect the Chinese state is ill equipped to test for the number of people who caught it and had minimal symptoms, while counting fatalities is pretty easy. There is reportedly a  major respiratory component to the CV-19 virus. Chinese cities are notorious for very poor long term air quality and that means a lot of the population has compromised respiratory systems to begin with. The Chinese military owns the cigarette companies and use it as source of revenue. Cigarette smoking has exploded in the last few decades which also leads to compromised lungs to begin with.  Someone with COPD and other long term lung issues are probably the ones that really need to worry. Sadly I have a few friends that are chain smokers and already are on the cusp of COPD that I worry about. One of the them is big listener to conservative talk radio so he is lapping up folks like Rush spinning "alternative truth"

Some of the data trickling out is large number of the fatalities are elderly with other significant medical issues. I am not particularly worried about myself as I don't have any pulmonary issues, but expect its going to hit some elderly portions of the population. The biggest issue I see is the paranoia of  folks.  The current administration has been steadily cutting public heath funding so the CDC and had a war on science in general so a lot of the resources that were there have retired or left government service.  The media loves it as it get eyeballs on the screen and that also leads to paranoia.


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## MTY

It may be the cure for the monetary woes of Social Security.  And I agree that it is difficult to extrapolate  the effects on the Chinese population to the rest of the world.  Pollution literally can be seen to fall from the sky in China.  Not having seen it first hand, most of our citizens could not begin to grasp the differences between our health care system and China's.  
For a health statistic think of this.  China consumes very little ice cream.  This is due to the poor quality of oral care.  I just plain hurts too much for them to eat ice cream.  We now know that anyone with dental health issues pretty much has a compromised immune system.


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## Seasoned Oak

How crazy will it get? Some poor filipino guy got beat up in  a supermarket in Italy after being mistaken for a Chinese national. Some twisted sense of retribution over italys Corona virus outbreak.   And this is just the start. Now the news is warning 70% of the US population is likely to get it at some point,not sure where the other 30% would be hiding.  Not sure whats worse ,powering through the virus or spraying public areas with all kinds of chemicals as they seem to be doing in china.


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## Seasoned Oak

This yrs regular flu is particularly severe. My teenage daughter, and several associates all quite young and healthy, had 4-6 days of severe symptoms.  What scares me is my daughter had this yrs flu shot a few months ago.  Seems to be selective though , no one else in my family has contracted it ,or no symptoms if we did.


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## Eightball1313

quarantine the country now, not later. shut down the borders, ban traveling in and out of the continental united states, ban travel in between state lines. affected states should ban travel between counties and townships. all of this until an effective vaccine is found. stay home! the markets are getting hit hard already and im sure will continue to do so, so implementing these protocols sound like a good idea to me


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## tadmaz

I think we just watch to see how things go.  Not freaking out yet.  What is weird is the 2 week incubation time.  Some folks speculate that this is man-made


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## begreen

Seasoned Oak said:


> How crazy will it get? Some poor filipino guy got beat up in  a supermarket in Italy after being mistaken for a Chinese national. Some twisted sense of retribution over italys Corona virus outbreak.   And this is just the start. Now the news is warning 70% of the US population is likely to get it at some point,not sure where the other 30% would be hiding.  Not sure whats worse ,powering through the virus or spraying public areas with all kinds of chemicals as they seem to be doing in china.


I would say the scariest part is how woefully unprepared the US is for a pandemic. The administration shut down the US pandemic response chain of command a year ago. Today's hearing on this topic with the DHS head was mind-boggling. The fellow was totally unprepared. He gave very wrong answers to some questions and had no clue for others. In the meantime based on today's numbers, it appears the mortality rate is rising. I get 3.33% if I did the numbers right. (2700 deaths, 81,000 reported infections as of this morning)



tadmaz said:


> I think we just watch to see how things go.  Not freaking out yet.  What is weird is the 2 week incubation time.  Some folks speculate that this is man-made


There has been a boatload of dumb speculation and innuendo about this disease. Expect there will be a lot more to come.


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## Eightball1313

begreen said:


> I would say the scariest part is how woefully unprepared the US is for a pandemic. The administration shut down the US pandemic response chain of command a year ago. Today's hearing on this topic with the DHS head was mind-boggling. The fellow was totally unprepared. He gave very wrong answers to some questions and had no clue for others. In the meantime based on today's numbers, it appears the mortality rate is rising. I get 3.33% if I did the numbers right. (2700 deaths, 81,000 reported infections as of this morning)
> 
> 
> There has been a boatload of dumb speculation and innuendo about this disease. Expect there will be a lot more to come.


that, and the fact that there are so many people who just think its no big deal because its too far away from them now now, like you can stay the f home for a few months dont need to be going on any vacations to other countries like chilll and lets figure this stuff out. i swear without a mass travel ban this thing will keep spreading like wild fire


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## begreen

Hopefully not. So far the US and Canada are doing better that many other areas. Good time to head to S. America, none there.


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## Eightball1313

begreen said:


> Hopefully not. So far the US and Canada are doing better that many other areas. Good time to head to S. America, none there.


someone in brazil has it, was on the news today, came back from visiting italy where there was a break out and now he has it in brazil.


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## blades

Will Smith - movie    " Legend" - the parallels in the beginning of movie.  Current flu shots only 45% effective.  I ended up in the other 55%.  haven't had any flu bugs since the mid 70's. likely over due- past tense


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## Jan Pijpelink

Never had a flu shot. Haven't had the flu in 45 years. I don't see the purpose injecting yourself with last year's flu virus while not knowing which strain will come this year. My wife's BIL gets a flu shot every year and gets the flu every year.


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## Seasoned Oak

Jan Pijpelink said:


> Never had a flu shot. Haven't had the flu in 45 years. I don't see the purpose injecting yourself with last year's flu virus while not knowing which strain will come this year. My wife's BIL gets a flu shot every year and gets the flu every year.


I had the opposite experience, got the flu every yr until i started getting the shot and havnt had it yet in 15+ yrs since getting the yearly shot. Everyone is different though.


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## Seasoned Oak

Eightball1313 said:


> quarantine the country now, not later. shut down the borders, ban traveling in and out of the continental united states, ban travel in


Not easy to do ,but yea waiting until its already here is not an effective strategy.


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## peakbagger

The current adminstration is probably far more concerned with impact on the election than the number of bodies that pile up. Generally a crisis is good for the current administration but we will all see.


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## MTY

The big question for me, and I do not expect an honest answer, is how long can this bug survive without a host.  Say a person puts everything on auto pilot and hides out, but receives mail, how long can the virus remain active if someone has coughed on the mail.  Travel bans may not be very effective if commerce continues.


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## begreen

peakbagger said:


> The current adminstration is probably far more concerned with impact on the election than the number of bodies that pile up. Generally a crisis is good for the current administration but we will all see.


Based on the hearings I have watched today, they are woefully underprepared. The entire pandemic response chain of command was shut down 2 yrs ago. HHS and CDC people didn't even know about the 2016 govt. guidelines for pandemic response. The head of DHS today was scary in his lack of knowledge. At times he just made up (completely wrong) stuff. Add to this the stupidity coming out on the airwaves and from the recent medal of honor recipient and on social media. We could be in for a world of hurt if this turns pandemic in the US and it  becomes a political football. Some things need to stay completely outside of politics.


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## Jan Pijpelink

begreen said:


> Based on the hearings I have watched today, they are woefully underprepared. The entire pandemic response chain of command was shut down 2 yrs ago. HHS and CDC people didn't even know about the 2016 govt. guidelines for pandemic response. The head of DHS today was scary in his lack of knowledge. At times he just made up (completely wrong) stuff. Add to this the stupidity coming out on the airwaves and from the recent medal of honor recipient and on social media. We could be in for a world of hurt if this turns pandemic in the US and it becomes a political football. Some things need to stay completely outside of politics.


Wait for it......and BTW the Earth is flat.


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## peakbagger

At the least they didnt call the virus Captain Trips. *


(* Stephen King's The Stand.)


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## Seasoned Oak

begreen said:


> Some things need to stay completely outside of politics.


Completely agree ,now if they can avoid calling everyone involved a racist for travel restrictions that would be a good start.


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## Seasoned Oak

peakbagger said:


> The current adminstration is probably far more concerned with impact on the election than the number of bodies that pile up. Generally a crisis is good for the current administration but we will all see.


Your bias is showing. Doing exactly what your blaming others for.  If you want the full story , watch some news outlets that give the full story.  Must be frustrating to get only one bias side 24/7.


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## Eightball1313

After watching the speech last night sure sounds like they have no effin clue what to do, wish they would just be up front instead of just saying "yeah so we might have a vaccine in the next two years and theres def gunna be more case BUT WE HAVE IT UNDER CONTROL because we have the smartest people in the country working on it.." what happens when those people get it and die?! Idk sure doesnt sounds good to me...


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## Seasoned Oak

With such a wide range of opinions on the subject as usual the truth lies somewhere  in the middle.   Even with all the critcism they got for the initial travel ban i didnt think it went far enough. Still dont think it goes far enough .  Classic no win situation.


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## Eightball1313

Seasoned Oak said:


> With such a wide range of opinions on the subject as usual the truth lies somewhere  in the middle.   Even with all the critcism they got for the initial travel ban i didnt think it went far enough. Still dont think it goes far enough .  Classic no win situation.


I 100% agree with you man, Confirmed case of unknown origin in california as of yesterday so now i feel like its a question of how long does the virus survive without a host, as somehow above has previously mentioned...


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## Seasoned Oak

Eightball1313 said:


> I 100% agree with you man, Confirmed case of unknown origin in california as of yesterday so now i feel like its a question of how long does the virus survive without a host, as somehow above has previously mentioned...


Or the person came in contact with a traveler as also mention in the story. Most likely scenario. Possibly the traveler dont even know they have it. Another reason why the current international travel restrictions dont go far enough.


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## paulnlee

Like the other Jersey guy said, we don't worry here. We're so polluted the virus doesn't stand a chance here. Seriously most of you are still suffering from TDS. He gave an exceptional speech(not Screech like Palosi) last nite. Calm, facts, wtf do you want.


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## begreen

Seasoned Oak said:


> Your bias is showing. Doing exactly what your blaming others for.  If you want the full story , watch some news outlets that give the full story.  Must be frustrating to get only one bias side 24/7.


This one appears to be self-fulfilling. It is the tweets and the conspiracy theory nuts that keep tying it to the election cycle and are blaming the opposite party. This gets us nowhere fast.


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## begreen

paulnlee said:


> Like the other Jersey guy said, we don't worry here. We're so polluted the virus doesn't stand a chance here. Seriously most of you are still suffering from TDS. He gave an exceptional speech(not Screech like Palosi) last nite. Calm, facts, wtf do you want.


I watched the Senate hearings and was not at all reassured. Some of the acting heads were clueless, seriously. None had read the govt published guidelines for dealing with a pandemic. Others kept referring to another agency for responsibility, with no one in charge. This was not confidence inspiring.

Let this play out and hope that with warmer weather the infection rate slows. Right now the chain of command for pandemic response and all those people whose job it was to do this have been let go. Most of the cabinet heads are unvetted, acting heads. Rebuilding this simply doesn't happen overnight. Congress is at least 2 weeks away from approving funds. Even if a vaccine is developed, it would not be available in large quantities for 12 to 18 months.  And the responses already are getting politicized, from the top on down.


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## bholler

Seasoned Oak said:


> Your bias is showing. Doing exactly what your blaming others for.  If you want the full story , watch some news outlets that give the full story.  Must be frustrating to get only one bias side 24/7.


I absolutely agree that the truth is generally in the middle.   But the facts here are that the chain of command for cases like this was dismantled and not adequately replaced.   That has been absolutely clear by the response.


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## Grizzerbear

I think the media is more scared than anything yank yank. I know my numbers aren't correct probably because I'm not keeping up with it....but how many confirmed cases in the u.s. is it.....15. If it has to get political I would say so far let's not point fingers yet because in a country of 331 mill that don't seem too bad yet. I do know for a fact that a factory sub contracted by the government here quit producing army tents and similar products of normal production and started making quarantine tents over a week and a half ago. This political banter is exactly why our country has been in auto pilot for around 20 years.


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## Seasoned Oak

bholler said:


> I absolutely agree that the truth is generally in the middle.   But the facts here are that the chain of command for cases like this was dismantled and not adequately replaced.   That has been absolutely clear by the response.


Problem is everyone has a different set of "facts" they refer to depending on their politics. Im sure the pandemic task force can be ramped back up quickly.  Being that we borrow 20c of every dollar we  spend in govt these days im not surprised some agencies get mothballed.  EIther way those at the top wil get blamed for every death no matter what the response.  Whats surprising to me isnt that 30000 to 60000 people die every yr of the regular flu ,its that so many dont get the flu shot. id like to see the number of deaths subcategoried this way. From last year "Last year, 80 percent of pediatric deaths occurred in children who were unvaccinated", according to the CDC.


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## bholler

Seasoned Oak said:


> Problem is everyone has a different set of "facts" they refer to depending on their politics. Im sure the pandemic task force can be ramped back up quickly.  Being that we borrow 20c of every dollar we  spend in govt these days im not surprised some agencies get mothballed.  EIther way those at the top wil get blamed for every death no matter what the response.  Whats surprising to me isnt that 30000 to 60000 people die every yr of the regular flu ,its that so many dont get the flu shot. id like to see the number of deaths subcategoried this way. From last year "Last year, 80 percent of pediatric deaths occurred in children who were unvaccinated", according to the CDC.


I agree it can be ramped up quickly if there is the right framework and people there to do it.  The problem is it hasn't been and it doesn't seem like the people are there to deal with it.  I mean we don't even have adequate testing in place yet


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## Seasoned Oak

Been hearing some bad reports on the CDC. Wasting money ,bad management.  Starting to sound like its run like the UN.


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## blades

Current flu shots only 45% effective.


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## Seasoned Oak

blades said:


> Current flu shots only 45% effective.


CDC reports 61% last yr.  Also reports any protection is better than nothing.  Has worked great for me so far . Havnt had flu for 2 decades.


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## tadmaz

I was just asked at work to come up with a plan to have IT infrastructure to support hundreds of administrative employees working from home...


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## SidecarFlip

I'm not concerned much.  I limit my exposure to other people, have had my penumonia vacinnations so I'm immune to that.  The big thing is avoiding crowds of ill mannered people who sneeze and cough without covering their noses and mouths.  Nothing better for you than to walk through a cloud of atomized body fluids to catch something you don't want.

People are their own worst enemies.


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## begreen

Seasoned Oak said:


> Been hearing some bad reports on the CDC. Wasting money ,bad management.


Source? The CDC has been under the gun for the past few years. It used to be the most widely respected authority on disease control around the globe. 


tadmaz said:


> I was just asked at work to come up with a plan to have IT infrastructure to support hundreds of administrative employees working from home...


If this doesn't abate I think we will be seeing a lot more of this. Conferencing software is selling like hotcakes.


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## Montanalocal




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## SidecarFlip

I'm not concerned at all.  One, I live in a very remote area with very little population, Two, I've had my penumonia vaccinations, Three, I avoid crowds and Four, I don't watch the news on TV.  In fact, I don't watch TV at all and I don't drink Corona beer.  I don't consume alcohol at all.

You all want to get sick, don't come visit my place, you an't welcome here.


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## paulnlee

Know what's really gonna be funny--I heard last nite that Israel is possibly weeks away from a vaccine, been working on vaccines for quite awhile. Will the BDS supporters continue to boycott?


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## Ashful

Politics and public health are unfortunate bedfellows.


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## woodnomore

Coming up in March I have to fly to Detroit, Atlanta, and New Orleans. I am a professional I go about my business. I do not let the media hysteria stop me or worry me.


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## SidecarFlip

woodnomore said:


> Coming up in March I have to fly to Detroit, Atlanta, and New Orleans. I am a professional I go about my business. I do not let the media hysteria stop me or worry me.




I'm professionally retired myself....  Think I'll start making tinfoil hats on the side.  Might be a good business to get into.  I'll offer plain and quilted.


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## Seasoned Oak

Working in a hospital may get a lot harder ,having to spend 8 hours or more in a double plastic suit.  I once talked my wife out of a nursing career back when the biggest worry was a needle stick.


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## SidecarFlip

My opinion is simply, the media (typical) is blowing this way out of proportion.  The Wuhan Flu is nothing more than the Asian Flu that goes around every year.  All one has to do is use common sense and avoid crowds and practice normal hyigene.  

People in this country are gullible and take as gospel everything the media says when in fact the media spews fake news.  Like I said, I need to go into business making tinfiol hats.  I could sell a boatload to gullible sheeple.


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## Seasoned Oak

SidecarFlip said:


> My opinion is simply, the media (typical) is blowing this way out of proportion.  The Wuhan Flu is nothing more than the Asian Flu that goes around every year.


If the regular yearly flu kills .05%  of the people who get it and the Corona flu kills 3%   wouldnt that make corona 60 times more deadly? That seems to be what the panic is about. That would mean roughly 7 million dead assuming 70% of the US has to deal with it at some point as they now predict.


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## SidecarFlip

Maybe but maybe not.  Death estimates are based on China and we all know those stats are probably wacko anyway.  According to the WHO daily stats concerning this country and other countries impacted, the death rate is extremely low.  More people get killed in automobile accidents than any virus kills.


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## begreen

SidecarFlip said:


> The Wuhan Flu is nothing more than the Asian Flu that goes around every year.


That is a factual misstatement. The Covid-19 virus is related to SARS and MERS. That is how it was able to be detected so quickly.








						Coronaviruses
					

Coronaviruses are a priority for NIAID. Three forms have emerged over the past two decades. These cause the serious and widespread diseases SARS, MERS, and COVID-19.




					www.niaid.nih.gov
				




FWIW, the first US person infected with Covid-19 just died, in WA state.  There are one, possibly 2 cases in the state that are community spread, with not travel involved.


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## SidecarFlip

So, tell me how many die from the common influenza every year?  I lot more I bet.  I'm still not overly concerned.  I'm concerned but not to the point where 'the sky is falling'  Most of the 'panic' is media induced from what I see.

No panic here.  Life goes on until it ends, just like it does for everyone, you and me included.

Having said that, I just take the normal precautions I do every flu season.


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## bholler

SidecarFlip said:


> So, tell me how many die from the common influenza every year?  I lot more I bet.  I'm still not overly concerned.  I'm concerned but not to the point where 'the sky is falling'  Most of the 'panic' is media induced from what I see.
> 
> No panic here.  Life goes on until it ends, just like it does for everyone, you and me included.
> 
> Having said that, I just take the normal precautions I do every flu season.


I agree no need to panic.  But we also can't ignore it or it could turn into a pandemic.


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## SpaceBus

Also there is no pneumonia vaccine. Pneumonia is a term to describe the condition of having lungs full of fluid from many different causes. Bacteria, dust, spores, and viruses can all cause pneumonia.


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## begreen

Crap, our county just became ground zero in the US. State of emergency declared as an entire nursing facility may be infected and there are several community vectors out and about, many not knowing that they are infected. Two nursing homes affected that have been visited by family, friends, fire dept crews, and nursing students. 

 It's not so much the hale and hearty that are worried, but those with compromised immunities, elderly and already infirmed. My son works at a cancer care center. This is very threatening to those staying there while getting treatment.


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## begreen

There is an unusual silver lining when everyone stays at home. In China there has been a massive decrease in air pollution. Hmmm.








						Coronavirus: Nasa images show China pollution clear amid slowdown
					

Nasa says major decreases in nitrogen dioxide levels are "at least partly" linked to the outbreak.



					www.bbc.com


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## peakbagger

SpaceBus said:


> Also there is no pneumonia vaccine. Pneumonia is a term to describe the condition of having lungs full of fluid from many different causes. Bacteria, dust, spores, and viruses can all cause pneumonia.



Just to keep things straight (realizing I am layman and not doctor ) I agree pneumonia is an infection of the lungs from multiple sources including viruses, bacteria and fungi with similar symptoms and results.  There is a Pneumococcal vaccine for Streptococcus pneumoniae bacteria for children and older adults https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/pneumo/index.html, What happens frequently is that a person will have compromised lungs from a variety of sources, old age, smoking, genetics and environmental exposure and the bacteria version will sneak in and make things far worse as its always present in the environment.  Getting the adult shot boosts the immune system to reduce the likelihood of getting the most prevalent bacteriological version.  I think most folks have known others or experienced it themselves that they start out with a common cold (which is a virus), try to ignore it  and then while they are fighting that off and their lungs are compromised is that they get  bacterial pneumonia on top of the cold.  The vaccine is intended to break that link and provide the elderly population herd immunity.


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## SpaceBus

peakbagger said:


> Just to keep things straight (realizing I am layman and not doctor ) I agree pneumonia is an infection of the lungs from multiple sources including viruses, bacteria and fungi with similar symptoms and results.  There is a Pneumococcal vaccine for Streptococcus pneumoniae bacteria for children and older adults https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/pneumo/index.html, What happens frequently is that a person will have compromised lungs from a variety of sources, old age, smoking, genetics and environmental exposure and the bacteria version will sneak in and make things far worse as its always present in the environment.  Getting the adult shot boosts the immune system to reduce the likelihood of getting the most prevalent bacteriological version.  I think most folks have known others or experienced it themselves that they start out with a common cold (which is a virus), try to ignore it  and then while they are fighting that off and their lungs are compromised is that they get  bacterial pneumonia on top of the cold.  The vaccine is intended to break that link and provide the elderly population herd immunity.


Indeed, I had seen where a poster said they had a pneumonia vaccine. For the sake of others I wanted to clarify so folks don't get overly bold and die.


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## begreen

Today's update based on testing here:
"In Washington State, researchers compared two cases in the hopes of gaining such insight. One case, which last month became the first in the United States, appeared in a patient from whom health officials took a sample on Jan. 19. Another case that surfaced in the region last week probably descended from it, based on an analysis of the virus’s genetic sequence.

The findings suggest that the virus has been spreading in the community for close to six weeks, according to one of the scientists who compared the sequences, Trevor Bedford, an associate professor at the University of Washington.

If that is true, it could mean that 150 to 1,500 people “have either been infected and recovered or currently are infected now,” said Mike Famulare, a researcher at the Institute for Disease Modeling in Bellevue, Wash., who performed the analysis. Those cases, if they exist, have thus far been undetected."
www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/world/coronavirus-news.html


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## hockeypuck

The scariest part of this virus is they do not know how long it can live outside a host and some people seem to carry the virus after they have been "cured" add to that the 3 or 4 week incubation period.  I have a hard time thinking that this thing was not genetically altered, but I will take my tinfoil hat off and leave it here.


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## thewoodlands

begreen said:


> Today's update based on testing here:
> "In Washington State, researchers compared two cases in the hopes of gaining such insight. One case, which last month became the first in the United States, appeared in a patient from whom health officials took a sample on Jan. 19. Another case that surfaced in the region last week probably descended from it, based on an analysis of the virus’s genetic sequence.
> 
> The findings suggest that the virus has been spreading in the community for close to six weeks, according to one of the scientists who compared the sequences, Trevor Bedford, an associate professor at the University of Washington.
> 
> If that is true, it could mean that 150 to 1,500 people “have either been infected and recovered or currently are infected now,” said Mike Famulare, a researcher at the Institute for Disease Modeling in Bellevue, Wash., who performed the analysis. Those cases, if they exist, have thus far been undetected."
> www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/world/coronavirus-news.html


We have two state colleges and two private colleges not far from us, one of the private schools are calling kids back from Italy. We have kids from this town going to SLU, I wonder if any are in Italy or Spain.

https://www.wwnytv.com/2020/03/01/coronavirus-spreads-slu-calls-students-home-italy/


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## begreen

hockeypuck said:


> The scariest part of this virus is they do not know how long it can live outside a host and some people seem to carry the virus after they have been "cured" add to that the 3 or 4 week incubation period.  I have a hard time thinking that this thing was not genetically altered, but I will take my tinfoil hat off and leave it here.


Viruses have been around since the beginning of life. They can and do evolve when given a new host. This can happen in someone eating a wild animal like the pangolin. We are learning more every day. There are definitely diseases that spread more quickly and are much more deadly. This article provides some good information on what we know so far. 








						How Bad Will the Coronavirus Outbreak Get? Here Are 6 Key Factors (Published 2020)
					

Here’s what early research says about how the pathogen behaves and the factors that will determine how far it will spread.



					www.nytimes.com


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## Highbeam

I’m not worried about getting the virus. I’m worried about peoples’ panic and hysteria.


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## begreen

I don't worry too much, but I get your concerns I think. A friend was at Trader Joes today and found certain shelves bare. Looks like beans and rice are disappearing quickly. Another friend said hand sanitizers have disappeared. I asked them how are the chocolates and booze aisles doing and they said no problem. Now that worries me. Where are their priorities?!


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## begreen

If one is interested in how this virus is adapting, here is an interesting visual tracking of the epidemiology. 





						auspice
					






					nextstrain.org


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## Sawset

There were 95 deaths just today in the US from motor vehicle crashes. Need to get on that. 35,000 every year. Will need to shut businesses and schools to get people off the roadways.  Just adding another statistic for perspective. A preventable virus  is serious though, I shouldn't make lite of it. But I won't be staying home, or running to get supplies, just yet.


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## SpaceBus

Sawset said:


> There were 95 deaths just today in the US from motor vehicle crashes. Need to get on that. 35,000 every year. Will need to shut businesses and schools to get people off the roadways.  Just adding another statistic for perspective. A preventable virus  is serious though, I shouldn't make lite of it. But I won't be staying home, or running to get supplies, just yet.


I mean, most traffic deaths are preventable too, so not too far off.


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## Highbeam

I look at this as a big fire drill. Shouldn’t we all have enough supplies for 14 days at home, shouldn’t we all be reminded not to ingest other peoples’ snot, shouldn’t we all be prepared to work from home? I know not to talk about guns and ammo so I’ll just say, shouldn’t we all prepare to help those people who didn’t prepare? Overdue correction in the stock market, overdue restoration of funding to cdc.

As long as my loved ones don’t die, there’s a lot to like about a preparedness drill.


----------



## SpaceBus

Highbeam said:


> I look at this as a big fire drill. Shouldn’t we all have enough supplies for 14 days at home, shouldn’t we all be reminded not to ingest other peoples’ snot, shouldn’t we all be prepared to work from home? I know not to talk about guns and ammo so I’ll just say, shouldn’t we all prepare to help those people who didn’t prepare? Overdue correction in the stock market, overdue restoration of funding to cdc.
> 
> As long as my loved ones don’t die, there’s a lot to like about a preparedness drill.


Agreed on most points. I wish we had more dried beans and grains, but we have only been here for a year.


----------



## Ashful

Highbeam said:


> I look at this as a big fire drill. Shouldn’t we all have enough supplies for 14 days at home, shouldn’t we all be reminded not to ingest other peoples’ snot, shouldn’t we all be prepared to work from home? I know not to talk about guns and ammo so I’ll just say, shouldn’t we all prepare to help those people who didn’t prepare? Overdue correction in the stock market, overdue restoration of funding to cdc.
> 
> As long as my loved ones don’t die, there’s a lot to like about a preparedness drill.


I like the sentiment, but I’m not sure what 14 days at home would buy you, in this case.  Heck, if you read the stories begreen linked above, you’ll note the statement about this disease having gone undetected in the US for six weeks.  Once it hits your neighborhood, which appears to be inevitable at this point, it could be hanging around in the population a lot longer than 14 days.

I’m just glad we are close to the end of cold and flu season, as some statements have been made which tie the spread of this disease to the cold and flu season.  Hopefully we will reach warm weather before this thing gets too far, and some quick and effective work can be done on a vaccines and other preventative measures, before next October.


----------



## begreen

Ashful said:


> I’m just glad we are close to the end of cold and flu season, as some statements have been made which tie the spread of this disease to the cold and flu season. Hopefully we will reach warm weather before this thing gets too far, and some quick and effective work can be done on a vaccines and other preventative measures, before next October.


Yes, that is the best hope. Typically viruses can survive longer on cold surfaces than on warm ones. How this will evolve from warm weather here and on is unknown. It certainly will start showing up more in the southern hemisphere as they cool down in fall in Africa, Australia and South America. So far the closest to 'ready for testing' vaccine appears to be in Israel which some are saying is 90 days out before trials.  Others are further behind with a 12-18 month delay before mass manufacturing. This of course presumes success with the trials.


----------



## Highbeam

Ashful said:


> I’m not sure what 14 days at home would buy you,



This goes back to an important point. I'm not worried about the virus. I just assume that I will get it or have gotten it.

What the 14 days gets you is survival/comfort when you can't leave your home or there are no supplies available to replenish the typical household that has very little food on hand. Very few people (mormons?) are completely independent of the supply chain but 14 days is the recommended preparedness period by the disaster preparedness folks. It takes 14 days before actual military style help can be mobilized. Earthquakes, wildfire, power outage, hurricane, nuclear, contagion, etc.

Academics about virus spread and statistics are just noise but are certainly entertaining. Be prepared for the chaos and disruptions of the supply chain that we all depend on. I can't be the only one that has watched the zombie movies! Real life zombies aren't the infected ones but the unprepared that want your stuff.


----------



## Ashful

You may be mixing up the Mormons and Amish, I think.  But yeah, I get your thinking, there.


----------



## semipro

Mormons, or LDS, as they prefer, are well know for their prepping.  IIRC it's either a religious tenet or church policy.



Highbeam said:


> Be prepared for the chaos and disruptions of the supply chain that we all depend on.


The web of resources that gets us the stuff we need is both complex and fragile.  I realized that after Katrina hit NOLA. 
Most of us wood burners here are already a step ahead just having heat.
You're right also in that survival may well mean either preparing or taking from those that do.


----------



## begreen

In an earthquake zone it is good to be prepared, especially if one is rural. Larger population zones and infrastructure will be the priority for a while. While most cases will be mild or moderate, folks over 65 are more vulnerable. That includes us and many friends and neighbors. Some are definitely immune-compromised. Keep in touch with them and be ready to offer assistance if needed for shopping or to get to a doctor.


----------



## peakbagger

The LDS church definitely is adherent to one year of supplies on hand in the household. I have known a few families over the years and that is their goal. The church also has large warehouses of inventory in Utah to service the greater community. if a family loses their house, the church supposedly will lend them products out of the warehouse to cover the family until it gets back on their feet. They also have a very large investment fund that until recently was quite secret as it its holdings in case cash is needed.  Tithing is mandatory in the LDS church so there is pretty good cash flow into the church. For folks like myself who backpack, much of the bulk dehydrated food comes out of Utah along with some of the MRE type products. My guess is the production facilities  were built to service church needs but fill in with orders to anyone who is willing to buy the product and remote members. Its far less expensive to buy in bulk cans.  In addition to the staples many outfit sell bulk premade meals. They are usually scoop and dump into pot of boiling water, high salt and simple carbs.  I break down the cans with a vacuum sealer and oxygen absorbers. If kept dry the vacuum sealed stuff keeps for a long time. Note not all dehydrated products are great substitutes, dehydrated eggs being one of them. Nido which is full cream milk powder is pretty good for cooking but definitely not easy to confuse with fresh milk.  

I understand keeping supplies around for a "shelter in place" situation in general is a good thing to do but not sure of the linkage of bottled water to the virus. I as a rule have the 14 day supplies in the house and have for years.  I keep an inventory of bulk dehydrated foods from the years I was making frequent backpacks of the Appalachian Trail, that was over 10 years ago but I continue to do so. Buying fresh veggies for much of the year for one person is wasteful as most fresh products have limited shelf life. There is minimal loss of nutrition with properly dehydrated foods compared to fresh so I rotate the stock by using them to cook routinely. Note that I tend not to buy dried (versus dehydrated) veggies or beans as I have found that they take a lot time and fuel to cook with. Generally dehydrated veggies are precooked prior to dehydrating. Not much of an issue cooking over a woodstove but a big one when backpacking.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Death toll jumps to 6 already from just one a few days ago. Not a good sign. Likely hundreds if not thousands infected here already. So much for the benefits of daily international travel.


----------



## Highbeam

Seasoned Oak said:


> Death toll jumps to 6 already from just one a few days ago. Not a good sign. Likely hundreds if not thousands infected here already. So much for the benefits of daily international travel.



Ugh, all in the two counties north of mine.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

begreen said:


> I don't worry too much, but I get your concerns I think. A friend was at Trader Joes today and found certain shelves bare. Looks like beans and rice are disappearing quickly.


Last trip i got  extra pasta and jarred and canned sauce. Things that keep indefinitely without refrigeration. Probably good for a month or 2 on most things with 3 refrigerators and  2 deep freezers . Several months worth of beer.  Panic buying can hit quickly. Once the death toll ticks up you will see more of it.


----------



## semipro

Seasoned Oak said:


> Panic buying can hit quickly. Once the death toll ticks up you will see, more of it.


We went on our normal weekend shopping trip on Saturday and saw many empty shelves.  We needed bleach for our normal laundry use and had a hard time finding any.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Highbeam said:


> Ugh, all in the two counties north of mine.


Cant help but think some of these may have been very close to expiring regardless of the virus when your talking nursing home patients. Same with the seasonal flu. That would skew the numbers a bit.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

We just should stop drinking Corona beer. That will solve everything.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Jan Pijpelink said:


> We just should stop drinking Corona beer. That will solve everything.


Never started. Never had a mexican beer that was worth a second.


----------



## Ashful

Seasoned Oak said:


> Never started. Never had a mexican beer that was worth a second.


IF I am south of the 28th parallel, and IF it is over 90F, and IF a cute pool-side waitress asks... I might drink a Corona.  But anywhere near Philly, it ain’t happening.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

Seasoned Oak said:


> Never started. Never had a mexican beer that was worth a second.


The only beer I drink when in Mexico is Bohemia Negra, pretty good.


----------



## Sawset

I thought they recomended something with at least 65% alcohol.


----------



## begreen

Ministry of Health has some good advice.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

begreen said:


> Ministry of Health has some good advice.
> View attachment 257883


And that's all you need to know.


----------



## CaptSpiff

Ashful said:


> .....I’m just glad we are close to the end of cold and flu season, as some statements have been made which tie the spread of this disease to the cold and flu season.  Hopefully we will reach warm weather before this thing gets too far, and some quick and effective work can be done on a vaccines and other preventative measures, before next October.



I've always wondered what practical effects cause the FLU to disappear in the Spring and Summer. Is it that a virus really does not like the warmer air (like I heard on TV)? 
That doesn't seem right. Since it likes the warm moist insides of our lungs and bodies. The Spring/Summer air is much warmer and moister than in Winter, where we're constantly fighting to keep up humidity levels. 
Is it just the "fresh air" of opening our windows and diluting the exposure to other peoples exhalations? That may be because lots of people complain of post air-flight flu when returning from trips. But I also attend lots of summer parties which invariably head indoors at dusk, and besides the hangovers, few complain about catching flu from those confined events.
I don't think people practice better hygiene during the spring/summer period?
I'm really stumped. Anyone got any reputable source to point to ?


----------



## Ashful

CaptSpiff said:


> I've always wondered what practical effects cause the FLU to disappear in the Spring and Summer. Is it that a virus really does not like the warmer air (like I heard on TV)?
> That doesn't seem right. Since it likes the warm moist insides of our lungs and bodies. The Spring/Summer air is much warmer and moister than in Winter, where we're constantly fighting to keep up humidity levels.
> Is it just the "fresh air" of opening our windows and diluting the exposure to other peoples exhalations? That may be because lots of people complain of post air-flight flu when returning from trips. But I also attend lots of summer parties which invariably head indoors at dusk, and besides the hangovers, few complain about catching flu from those confined events.
> I don't think people practice better hygiene during the spring/summer period?
> I'm really stumped. Anyone got any reputable source to point to ?


I'll admit I don't know squat about this, but my wife spends more time reading about both traditional and alternative medicine than I do reading this forum about wood burning and stoves.  Her summary statements are:

1.  Vitamin D.  There is a proven link between vitamin D levels and immunity to the common cold and flu.  You get a heck of a lot more vitamin D from sun exposure while mowing the lawn and sitting by the pool in summer, than driving to and from work in the dark in the winter.
2.  Humidity, as you noted.  The dry (we run in the teens %) relative humidity in your home causes a huge increase in susceptibility to cold and flu, thru inflamed nasal and other respiratory passages.
3.  Cold weather.  Your ga'ma was right, exposure to cold weather does knock the immunity down, as you stand out in the cold pumping gas into your car or running to and from the store without bundling up.

I do have to admit that she is always the last one in the house to get a cold or the flu, usually caring for the rest of us.  I'm just a third kid in the house, in that regard.


----------



## MTY

I explained tonight that a large portion of my emergency food supply was still walking around.  The response was a startled look.  My thought though is that by the time I am eating the local fauna, the city slickers will be eating long pig.  I could probably eat a turkey a day for weeks and never make a dent in the population.  
I will most likely pick a few of the more tasty fruit trees in the old orchards and net them this weekend.  Its funny that one tree will have delicious apples, and the next one over will have apples that are bitter.  
And water squirts out of the ground at about 1300 gallons per day.


----------



## woodnomore

I can always eat venison, clover fed venison.


----------



## MTY

I'm glad you did not say you were already eating long pig.  Venison good, long pig not so much.


----------



## Highbeam

Long pig, had to look it up.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

It is pretty amazing that writer Dean Koontz wrote a book in 1981 titled They Eyes of Darkness in which he wrote that in the city of Wuhan, China a virus would escape from a lab in 2020 and start a pandemic. Was he a visionary  or was there a lunatic who read his book and did what was written?


----------



## semipro

For those thinking you're going to live off the land, you may want to reconsider.
Many in my area that don't have their own land have told me they're headed for the woods with rifles in hand if conventional supply chains collapse. 
I figure whatever we have growing on our land and in the nearby national forests will quickly be taken by those "prepared" to take what they want.
You think it's hard to keep deer out of gardens, try keeping armed and starving humans out.

More on topic: then you have jackwagons like this guy who traveled and socialized despite his known exposure to Covid-19.








						N.H. coronavirus patient breaks isolation, potentially exposing others
					

Most states have laws against breaking an isolation order.




					www.nbcnews.com


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Let the hoarding begin:




__





						Zerohedge
					

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




					www.zerohedge.com
				




Not sure why this is going on in New York . NY not greatly affected by the virus yet but i guess many see NY as a place where no one will get screened on the way in.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

The numbers may be skewd but as reported the death toll in South Korea is only .5% ,  but in Iran its 10 times that at 5%


----------



## Highbeam

semipro said:


> For those thinking you're going to live off the land, you may want to reconsider.
> Many in my area that don't have their own land have told me they're headed for the woods with rifles in hand if conventional supply chains collapse.
> I figure whatever we have growing on our land and in the nearby national forests will quickly be taken by those "prepared" to take what they want.
> You think it's hard to keep deer out of gardens, try keeping armed and starving humans out.
> 
> More on topic: then you have jackwagons like this guy who traveled and socialized despite his known exposure to Covid-19.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> N.H. coronavirus patient breaks isolation, potentially exposing others
> 
> 
> Most states have laws against breaking an isolation order.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nbcnews.com



Those are real life zombies. Desperate and fighting for their lives. Some are smart enough to wait for you to go to sleep.


----------



## SpaceBus

Seasoned Oak said:


> The numbers may be skewd but as reported the death toll in South Korea is only .5% ,  but in Iran its 10 times that at 5%


Think about the differences in the health care systems between the nations. China is another good example of this.


----------



## MTY

It is good to own an excavator.  It is not a matter of living off the land.  It is a matter of living in my own house and yard.


----------



## peakbagger

I think its basic math. % fatality rate = Number of people carrying the virus/ number of deaths due to virus. Now factor in that the test is not instant and in the US is in limited circulation (my local news reported that the state of NH had 100 testing kits as of this morning). So how does one calculate the percentage if there is not accurate testing being carried out for the specific virus? The Seattle case appears to show that the virus was circulating for days in the regional population therefore there is a lot of people carrying it with no symptoms, thus the numerator (the number on top of the dividing line) is probably understated making the result higher.  Deaths on the other hand are somewhat easier to count. China initially wanted to understate the impact of the virus so the numerator was stated lower than it appears to actually be.


----------



## SpaceBus

MTY said:


> It is good to own an excavator.  It is not a matter of living off the land.  It is a matter of living in my own house and yard.


Until we run out of diesel. I feel the same way about my tractor, so hopefully I can synthesize diesel from something if the supply chain fails.


----------



## Highbeam

peakbagger said:


> Deaths on the other hand are somewhat easier to count.



But they aren't testing deaths to see if those are caused by the virus either. One of the most recent deaths was actually an old body that someone thought to test for corona. You're seeing lack of info on both sides of the mortality equation.


----------



## CaptSpiff

peakbagger said:


> I think its basic math. % fatality rate = Number of people carrying the virus/ number of deaths due to virus.



Back in my school days, my Professor would hand back my quiz and say "Mr Spiff, you may be confused".


----------



## Seasoned Oak

SpaceBus said:


> Think about the differences in the health care systems between the nations. China is another good example of this.


Thats what if figured if the stats are correct.  But  could be  a lot of underreporting of active cases.


----------



## begreen

Seasoned Oak said:


> Thats what if figured if the stats are correct.  But  could be  a lot of underreporting of active cases.


This may be the case in India, which could be a very large incubator. Hopefully their warm climate will help keep the numbers down, but the poverty and close quarters in urban areas could cause quite a spike.


----------



## SpaceBus

begreen said:


> This may be the case in India, which could be a very large incubator. Hopefully their warm climate will help keep the numbers down, but the poverty and close quarters in urban areas could cause quite a spike.


Indian air quality is not far behind China either. From my observations of this catastrophe air quality is a huge factor.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

The lady and I just finished prepping our 950 square foot underground nuclear bunker in our back yard. Heat is running, water supply set up. We have for 6 years supplies to survive. Also 12 cases of various ammo in case the zombies enter the village. We plan to move in on Saturday.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Jan Pijpelink said:


> The lady and I just finished prepping our 950 square foot underground nuclear bunker in our back yard. Heat is running, water supply set up. We have for 6 years supplies to survive. Also 12 cases of various ammo in case the zombies enter the village. We plan to move in on Saturday.


You will have to come out for your corona shot in a few months unless your doctor makes "Bunker calls".


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

Seasoned Oak said:


> You will have to come out for your corona shot in a few months unless your doctor makes "Bunker calls".


We don't have a doctor.


----------



## MTY

I think that for the greater part of us, the food supply is not to survive the end of times, but rather to be able to do the decent thing which is stay home if we get sick rather that wandering about giving the bug to another couple of dozen people.


----------



## begreen

MTY said:


> I think that for the greater part of us, the food supply is not to survive the end of times, but rather to be able to do the decent thing which is stay home if we get sick rather that wandering about giving the bug to another couple of dozen people.


Food heck. You should have seen the carts filled with water and toilet paper at Costco. All canned tomatoes and beans are gone. You would think this is a major snowstorm and everyone is out to make sauce. Crazy.


----------



## Ashful

begreen said:


> Food heck. You should have seen the carts filled with water and toilet paper at Costco.


I've been wondering about this.  Why would you need water?  Is there some assumption your well or your tap water will suddenly become unusable, if you or someone else in your town has corona virus?

... and Amazon.com can deliver all the TP I'll ever need, right to my doorstep, apocalypse or not!


----------



## begreen

Ashful said:


> I've been wondering about this.  Why would you need water?  Is there some assumption your well or your tap water will suddenly become unusable, if you or someone else in your town has corona virus?
> 
> ... and Amazon.com can deliver all the TP I'll ever need, right to my doorstep, apocalypse or not!


I can tell you from speaking to the Costco workers and our local grocery store, they are really stressed out, working long hours against what seems to be an insatiable demand right now. People hoarding is not helping anything. If Amazon workers in our area get sick or quarantined, things may slow down.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Dont count on the general public to be rational about all this.  I thought Asians mistaken for Chinese nationals getting beat up in Italys supermarkets  was pretty far out there, but im afraid this kind of thing brings out the worst in people. No milk at the local grocery store tonight ,just how long can you store milk?


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

My mother survived the 1944 hunger winter in WWII. She is laughing her socks off if I tell her what's going on here.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Ashful said:


> ... and Amazon.com can deliver all the TP I'll ever need, right to my doorstep, apocalypse or not!


Seems like the best way to shop going forward, no human to human contact.  Break the transmission chain.


----------



## MTY

I chased the wild turkeys off three time this morning, went to Costco, and ran the turkeys off 4 more time before dark.  I bought saltine crackers, chicken noodle soup and some dried berries for my morning oatmeal.  They were out of canned veggies, tp, and bleach.  They had more tomato products than I thought possible.  All the places that should have had the sold out products were filled with tomato stuff.  
I'm thinking I should have passed on the chicken noodle soup and made turkey soup.  
As I was wandering about, I could hear people complaining about the lack of certain items.  One guy with a large package of paper towels announced to all present he was going to have to wipe his butt with paper towels.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

So what happens if you get both the seasonal flu and the corona virus at the same time , guess i dont want to find out?


----------



## Ashful

Seasoned Oak said:


> So what happens if you get both the seasonal flu and the corona virus at the same time , guess i dont want to find out?


Spontaneous combustion.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

Ashful said:


> Spontaneous combustion.


Problem solved.


----------



## WoodBurnerInWI

Seasoned Oak said:


> So what happens if you get both the seasonal flu and the corona virus at the same time , guess i dont want to find out?



You get a free Vermont Castings wood stove !!  Then you'll wish you did spontaneously combust!


----------



## Sawset

My grandfather was an orphan. Both parents within months, influenza,  one in October, other in April, 1912, Norway. Great grandmother was an orphan, similar circumstances, 1890s, Austria. Thinking we're a little better off now than then - that wasn't that long ago. Will visit aunt in a few months - she has stories to tell.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Coronavirus quarantine Brit 'is stockpiling free booze in his room'
					

A PATIENT locked down on quarantine at a UK hospital is hoarding free booze to dish out to other Wuhan evacuees. The group of 83 Brits have been kept at a Merseyside hospital for 14 days and were j…




					www.thesun.co.uk
				



Now this guy has the right idea.


----------



## woodnomore

Just watching the local morning news on TV, they just did a story on how to properly wash your hands. Does the media believe that we are dependent on them to learn how to live life?


----------



## peakbagger

woodnomore said:


> Just watching the local morning news on TV, they just did a story on how to properly wash your hands. Does the media believe that we are dependent on them to learn how to live life?


Yes, having spent several years  frequnet flying through airports and using the rest rooms, yes I do believe the media has to remind folks how to wash their hands properly.


----------



## woodnomore

If you need to have the media tell you how to wash your hands you were not raised right, unfortunately that is a problem in society now.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

woodnomore said:


> If you need to have the media tell you how to wash your hands you were not raised right, unfortunately that is a problem in society now.


There has been a problem for a long time,a good % of those using public rest rooms, leave without ever touching the sink,water or soap. Woman tell me they see the same thing in womens rest rooms. Shudder to think some of these people work in food prep.


----------



## semipro

peakbagger said:


> yes I do believe the media has to remind folks how to wash their hands properly.


- and that they need to wash them at all.  Far too many times I've seen people leave a stall or urinal and walk directly out the door.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

semipro said:


> - and that they need to wash them at all.  Far too many times I've seen people leave a stall or urinal and walk directly out the door.


Exactly, All the time. The local Burger King has a sign in their restroom reminding EMPLOYEES to wash up.


----------



## woodnomore

Seasoned Oak said:


> There has been a problem for a long time,a good % of those using public rest rooms, leave without ever touching the sink,water or soap. Woman tell me they see the same thing in womens rest rooms. Shudder to think some of these people work in food prep.



Tell you what if I go to the restroom in an airport bathroom, if I do not urinate on my hands (mastered urinating at a young age) I know for a fact my willie is cleaner than any surface in that restroom. I do wash my hands though, but just saying.


----------



## woodnomore

semipro said:


> - and that they need to wash them at all.  Far too many times I've seen people leave a stall or urinal and walk directly out the door.



I quit fretting about what strangers do that has no effect on me a long time ago.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

woodnomore said:


> I quit fretting about what strangers do that has no effect on me a long time ago.


Until you grab the shopping cart they just left behind or the door handle.


----------



## woodnomore

Seasoned Oak said:


> Until you grab the shopping cart they just left behind or the door handle.



If you don't wipe the cart handle at a minimum you are asking for it, been wiping cart handles long before this panic.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

woodnomore said:


> If you don't wipe the cart handle at a minimum you are asking for it, been wiping cart handles long before this panic.


But not the door handles on the way in or out of the store. And in and out of rest rooms if there a door with a handle. I prefer the rest room with NO door.  In winter i wear  gloves, if that helps at all not sure. ALways use a CC as well ,you dont know where those dollars have been.


----------



## semipro

Seasoned Oak said:


> But not the door handles on the way in or out of the store. And in and out of rest rooms if there a door with a handle. I prefer the rest room with NO door.  In winter i wear  gloves, if that helps at all not sure. ALways use a CC as well ,you dont know where those dollars have been.


...door handles, gas pump button pads and nozzles, credit cards and card reader pads pens and buttons, steering wheels, etc.
And then most of us touch our face about 15 times per hour.  Preventing cross-contamination is pretty hopeless.

Edit: Frank Herbert of Dune fame also wrote "The White Plague" where U.S. dollar bills were used as a way to spread a contagion.


----------



## MTY

Years ago, I took my daughter and her friends to a McD's.  It was the first one in town, and the girls were excited to go.  I watched an employee wipe the urinal  and counter in the men's room, walk out into the restaurant and begin wiping tables with the same cloth.  
If you nose works, you should be aware that a good number of people do not have a clue about washing.


----------



## begreen

semipro said:


> ...door handles, gas pump button pads and nozzles, credit cards and card reader pads pens and buttons, steering wheels, etc.
> And then most of us touch our face about 15 times per hour.  Preventing cross-contamination is pretty hopeless.
> 
> Edit: Frank Herbert of Dune fame also wrote "The White Plague" where U.S. dollar bills were used as a way to spread a contagion.


A recent testing of several McDonalds touchpads found fecal bacteria on every one of them. Even if one wears gloves, you end up touching them when taking them off. That's why you should wash your hands as soon as you enter the house.

Money is a common vector for spreading disease. To protect its employees, the Louvre just stopped taking cash for admittance.


----------



## begreen

One big issue we are seeing here in our area is the hoarding of supplies. It's pretty crazy and stressing out stores, pharmacies, etc.. People are buying toilet paper and bottled water like it's armageddon.  Masks and Purell disappear off the shelves within an hour. This thoughtless, ignorance makes is much harder for others.



A second big issue is the govt. recommendation to not assemble in large groups over 10 people. This is affecting businesses, sports, movies, all sorts of meetings. Many businesses are trying telecommuting for the first time. It will be interesting to see if after this is over, whether this practice hangs around. I telecommuted 3 days a week before retiring. It was a godsend to not have to spend 3hrs a day commuting.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

I started at my current employer over 12 years ago. Been working from home since day 1. Many of us do.


----------



## begreen

Jan Pijpelink said:


> I started at my current employer over 12 years ago. Been working from home since day 1. Many of us do.


I thought you worked out of a plane?  It seems like it some times.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

begreen said:


> I thought you worked out of a plane?  It seems like it some times.


Planes are my second home.


----------



## woodnomore

Seasoned Oak said:


> But not the door handles on the way in or out of the store. And in and out of rest rooms if there a door with a handle. I prefer the rest room with NO door.  In winter i wear  gloves, if that helps at all not sure. ALways use a CC as well ,you dont know where those dollars have been.



It has to be an emergency for me to use a public restroom.


----------



## Ashful

I use a lot of cash, and have a compromised respiratory system.  
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	




  It’s been nice knowing you guys.


----------



## SpaceBus

Ashful said:


> I use a lot of cash, and have a compromised respiratory system.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It’s been nice knowing you guys.


I frequently touch my face and have a compromised immune system...


----------



## tadmaz




----------



## peakbagger

The schools and healthcare use a UV powder that only shows up under blacklight. Its very fine and sticks to a lot of surfaces. They use it to illustrate how easy it is to cross contaminate  surfaces. I had to "learn" how to put on rubber exam gloves for some training  once and it took most of us three or four tries to putting them on an off without contaminating myself.

Contamination protection only works if everyone is doing it.  Look at all the hepatitis scares tied to food service workers. I may never see them but they may have contact with the food I am buying.


----------



## semipro

peakbagger said:


> Contamination protection only works if everyone is doing it.


Exactly -- a lot like vaccinations.


----------



## semipro

Ashful said:


> I use a lot of cash, and have a compromised respiratory system.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It’s been nice knowing you guys.


Yes, but do you touch yourself? 

Sorry, couldn't help it.  Don't really want to know.


----------



## Ashful

semipro said:


> Yes, but do you touch yourself?
> 
> Sorry, couldn't help it.  Don't really want to know.


Is that a 30 year old reference to the Divinyls?


----------



## Ashful

Just learned from PBS news that there are two confirmed cases in PA.  Governor just declared state of emergency today, although very few even took notice, and mainstream media hasn't said much about it.


----------



## begreen

Ashful said:


> Just learned from PBS news that there are two confirmed cases in PA.  Governor just declared state of emergency today, although very few even took notice, and mainstream media hasn't said much about it.


I am very grateful that our governor declared a state of emergency early on. If the cases are community spread then there are likely many others in the wild. The CDC has been seriously compromised so the states are having to pick up the slack.


----------



## fbelec

this is unbelievable. with all that is said on what to do and what not to do it baffles me that this happened. so i'm wiring a boiler with a plumber friend he says he had a welcome home party for his niece. she was in Italy for some schooling. they tell her to gather her things because she is being sent home because of the virus that is growing. in Italy she boards the plane and goes home. now when home she finds out that her room mate is in the ER because she spiked a fever and feels like crap. here is the kicker. she boards the plane in Italy they never check anyone out. she departs from the plane at Logan Airport no one was checked for anything. if they keep doing stuff like this how do they expect to keep it minimal


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

I have a few flights lined up. Surprised? The week after next to Houston. Next month Joanne and I will go to Amsterdam. Mother is celebrating her 90th. I wonder how much it will have decreased and if not what kind of precautions we will face at the various airports.

I have advised some of my team members to reconsider their attendance at a scientific meeting (ASTM) in June in DC.


----------



## peakbagger

More diagnosed cases are a good thing, it mean they are finally getting enough test kits out there. This virus seems to be a cousin to norovirus, real easy to spread and hard to kill so its going to get out into the population. South Korea has reportedly been aggressively producing, distributing and using test kits, therefore they are  testing more of the population and not surprisingly finding more people with the virus. It does not necessarily  mean that they have it worse than other countries, its just that they know they have it while other countries may not. In this case they have a pretty good idea of the total infected population and also testing the fatalities to confirm that it was CV-19 related. I believe their fatality rate is now somewhat less than 0.5 %. The number of confirmed cases will most likely skyrocket in the US as the testing kits get distributed. There is also some reported pretty good progress on instant test kits which will probably find even more cases. It comes down to its better to "know the devil you know, than the devil you dont". 

One of the sad things in the US is that the US public health system and state public health systems have been drained of funds in recent years. When there is a public health emergency in place its too late to ramp it up. Just like a fire department, the money and time has to be spent before the fire breaks out.  The US already has a serious shortage of health care professionals so the concept of "hire more doctors when you need them does not work except for the rich.


----------



## Ashful

Our largest local school district closed their public schools on Friday.  No word yet on plans for next week, or the rest of the year. 

My company just passed a new travel policy, all international business travel must be approved by the CEO, and all personal international travel must be disclosed to HR.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

I see a european airline "flybe" going  bankrupt already ,,more to follow im sure. Air travel will be down to a trickle soon in some places. General public plans  to  treat virus with bottled water and TP.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

fbelec said:


> here is the kicker. she boards the plane in Italy they never check anyone out. she departs from the plane at Logan Airport no one was checked for anything. if they keep doing stuff like this how do they expect to keep it minimal


Pretty obvious at this point were all going to be exposed to this virus, hopefully we will make it through after it runs its course. Closing schools would help ,most of the contageous illnesses we get here are what our kids bring home from school.


----------



## Highbeam

Seasoned Oak said:


> Pretty obvious at this point were all going to be exposed to this virus, hopefully we will make it through after it runs its course. Closing schools would help ,most of the contageous illnesses we get here are what our kids bring home from school.



I am almost convinced that there is no point in even trying or worrying about whether or not we will be exposed. Get over the extra need to clean and prevent. That’s just busy work to distract. We are just performing normal habits for preventing all normal bugs.

If you’re in that group of compromised people then yes, you should be extra careful. The rest of us live like normal except.. the shortages.

I couldn’t buy my regularly scheduled amount of tp to replace my consumed stock yesterday. I never felt the need to hoard it and that caused me an actual problem. This was an odd feeling, made me question all of my apocalypse preparations.

Don’t worry about the virus, worry about the shortages/panic.


----------



## Ashful

Highbeam said:


> I am almost convinced that there is no point in even trying or worrying about whether or not we will be exposed. Get over the extra need to clean and prevent. That’s just busy work to distract. We are just performing normal habits for preventing all normal bugs.
> 
> If you’re in that group of compromised people then yes, you should be extra careful. The rest of us live like normal except.. the shortages.


The time of year makes me disagree with you, Highbeam.  If the  spread of this bug can be limited just a few weeks with some extra precautions, we will be into warm weather, when it’s spread will be naturally limited.  Hopefully, there will be new vaccines and other some measures in place by next fall.

So many people talk about each of these new bugs being an issue only for the elderly or compromised.  But I hope to become one of those elderly and compromised one day.  Heck, I have family who are already in that group.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

Almost 62 with Cardiomyopathy. Not afraid at all.


----------



## MTY

Ish kabibble.


----------



## SidecarFlip

Jan Pijpelink said:


> The lady and I just finished prepping our 950 square foot underground nuclear bunker in our back yard. Heat is running, water supply set up. We have for 6 years supplies to survive. Also 12 cases of various ammo in case the zombies enter the village. We plan to move in on Saturday.


I thought firearms were banned in Jersey?


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

SidecarFlip said:


> I thought firearms were banned in Jersey?


Nope.


----------



## SidecarFlip

Irregardless, I'm not concerned about the Kungflu.  If I get it and I cack out, oh well.  At 70, I've raised plenty of hell and have 0 regrets.  I suspect the chances are pretty slim anyway.  Don't live near any population centers, live on a dirt road in the middle of nowhere with no neighbors, have a root cellar full of canned goods, 2 freezers full of beef, venison and Elk and a well so no city water.  500 gallons of diesel in the farm tank, tractors are topped off as well and 5 full ammo cans of various calibers and the firearms to send them with too.

I'm in pretty good shape.  Not worried.  Worry causes high blood pressure anyway.


----------



## SidecarFlip

I'd say old XI gave the gift that just keeps on giving, what a guy huh?


----------



## Ashful

Jan Pijpelink said:


> Nope.


I’m a sports shooter, and used to both hunt and carry, decades ago.  I also grew up on the PA/NJ boarder.   Even back then, we all knew not to even think about carrying in NJ, they have some of the strictest gun laws in the nation.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

Ashful said:


> I’m a sports shooter, and used to both hunt and carry, decades ago.  I also grew up on the PA/NJ boarder.   Even back then, we all knew not to even think about carrying in NJ, they have some of the strictest gun laws in the nation.


They have. But you can still get a license.


----------



## paulnlee

Jan Pijpelink said:


> They have. But you can still get a license.



Who you paying off?


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

paulnlee said:


> Who you paying off?





			https://www.njsp.org/info/pdf/firearms/sts-033.pdf


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

In NJ you need a permit for a pellet gun as well.


----------



## begreen

A stat in the WHO report that intrigues me is that the mortality rate of 3.4% which confirms what I had been seeing. Broken down,  it said that the average rate was about double for men than for women, something like 4.6 vs 2.8% IIRC. That really got me wondering what was up. My hypothesis was that this is because the men were mostly smokers and the women were not. Had to look it up, but sure enough, about 50% of Chinese men smoke and less than 3% Chinese women smoke. If this is true then once we look back it would be good to investigate if this is a trend across populations. I am wondering if the elevated mortality rate in Italy might confirm my hypothesis if most were smokers. 








						China: share of smoking adults by gender 2000-2020 | Statista
					

The statistic shows the share of adult population who smoke in China in selected years from 2000 to 2020, broken down by gender.




					www.statista.com


----------



## paulnlee

Jan Pijpelink said:


> https://www.njsp.org/info/pdf/firearms/sts-033.pdf


You said license, Ash mentioned "carry". No way here. I have all I need now


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

begreen said:


> A stat in the WHO report that intrigues me is that the mortality rate of 3.4% which confirms what I had been seeing. Broken down,  it said that the average rate was about double for men than for women, something like 4.6 vs 2.8% IIRC. That really got me wondering what was up. My hypothesis was that this is because the men were mostly smokers and the women were not. Had to look it up, but sure enough, about 50% of Chinese men smoke and less than 3% Chinese women smoke. If this is true then once we look back it would be good to investigate if this is a trend across populations. I am wondering if the elevated mortality rate in Italy might confirm my hypothesis if most were smokers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China: share of smoking adults by gender 2000-2020 | Statista
> 
> 
> The statistic shows the share of adult population who smoke in China in selected years from 2000 to 2020, broken down by gender.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.statista.com


I think your theory is accurate. In China, Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand, most men smoke. In Indonesia it is a lot higher than 50%.


----------



## SpaceBus

begreen said:


> A stat in the WHO report that intrigues me is that the mortality rate of 3.4% which confirms what I had been seeing. Broken down,  it said that the average rate was about double for men than for women, something like 4.6 vs 2.8% IIRC. That really got me wondering what was up. My hypothesis was that this is because the men were mostly smokers and the women were not. Had to look it up, but sure enough, about 50% of Chinese men smoke and less than 3% Chinese women smoke. If this is true then once we look back it would be good to investigate if this is a trend across populations. I am wondering if the elevated mortality rate in Italy might confirm my hypothesis if most were smokers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China: share of smoking adults by gender 2000-2020 | Statista
> 
> 
> The statistic shows the share of adult population who smoke in China in selected years from 2000 to 2020, broken down by gender.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.statista.com


When I lived in Italy in 03/04 everyone smoked. I last visited in 2007 and still people smoking.


----------



## begreen

SpaceBus said:


> When I lived in Italy in 03/04 everyone smoked. I last visited in 2007 and still people smoking.


We were there in 2009. They had just instituted laws banning smoking in restaurants, bars, etc. Needless to say it was a drastic change for them and some were having a hard time adjusting.


----------



## PaulOinMA

My wife and I met when we both worked for a German company.  We thought a lot of them smoked until my wife went to work for a Swiss company.


----------



## begreen

PaulOinMA said:


> My wife and I met when we both worked for a German company.  We thought a lot of them smoked until my wife went to work for a Swiss company.


It's hard for me to imagine a coffee shop or cafe in Amsterdam smoke-free.


----------



## ABMax24

I think panic and hysteria is starting to gain a foothold, the local Costco is sold out of paper towel and toilet paper and running low on bottled water. Pharmacies are placing restrictions on how much over the counter drugs people can buy to prevent hoarding.


----------



## begreen

ABMax24 said:


> I think panic and hysteria is starting to gain a foothold, the local Costco is sold out of paper towel and toilet paper and running low on bottled water. Pharmacies are placing restrictions on how much over the counter drugs people can buy to prevent hoarding.


And this has just begun.


----------



## ABMax24

begreen said:


> And this has just begun.



And then there's the issue of the supply chain implication due to area lockdowns. Our suppliers at work have already told us to prepare for shortages of pipe and fittings from China and forgings from Italy.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

begreen said:


> It's hard for me to imagine a coffee shop or cafe in Amsterdam smoke-free.


All cafes and (non weed) coffee shops in NL are smoke free.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

begreen said:


> And this has just begun.


Was in our local supermarket this afternoon. No empty shelves, not a single sign of hoarding supplies. Then I quickly went back home to go in our underground nuclear bunker. Better be safe.


----------



## Ashful

The woman sitting behind me in church this morning just told me her brother is infected. He lives in FL.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

Ashful said:


> The woman sitting behind me in church this morning just told me her brother is infected. He lives in FL.


One of the reasons I do not go to church. All you hear are horror stories.


----------



## SpaceBus

begreen said:


> We were there in 2009. They had just instituted laws banning smoking in restaurants, bars, etc. Needless to say it was a drastic change for them and some were having a hard time adjusting.


There were still cigarette vending machines in Germany last time I was there in 2013.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

SpaceBus said:


> There were still cigarette vending machines in Germany last time I was there in 2013.


Some hotels still have them.


----------



## begreen

Jan Pijpelink said:


> Was in our local supermarket this afternoon. No empty shelves, not a single sign of hoarding supplies. Then I quickly went back home to go in our underground nuclear bunker. Better be safe.


Hooray, a pocket of sanity. I have a friend that lives in a suburb of Phoenix AZ. He says the madness has hit there.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

begreen said:


> Hooray, a pocket of sanity. I have a friend that lives in a suburb of Phoenix AZ. He says the madness has hit there.


All that was new was that there is hand sanitizer at the entrance. Everything else is business as usual. *Nobody* was buying lots of Lysol, toilet paper, cleaning sprays or anything like that.


----------



## begreen

Ashful said:


> The woman sitting behind me in church this morning just told me her brother is infected. He lives in FL.


Amazing. What are the odds of that with only a dozen cases in FL?


----------



## Seasoned Oak

It may be possible the 3% death rate is way off due to not many people being tested. And only tested when they have symptoms.  Could be way more people out there who actually are walking around spreading this who dont have any symptoms at all. That would put the death rate much closer to a regular flu.  Just throwing that out there. They also reported almost half of those who tested positive have already recovered. Like 49 k out of 100k


----------



## ABMax24

Seasoned Oak said:


> It may be possible the 3% death rate is way off due to not many people being tested. And only tested when they have symptoms.  Could be way more people out there who actually are walking around spreading this who dont have any symptoms at all. That would put the death rate much closer to a regular flu.  Just throwing that out there. They also reported almost half of those who tested positive have already recovered. Like 49 k out of 100k



I'm also thinking of this the other way, there are a lot of people currently infected that don't have a determined outcome yet as they are still fighting the virus. According to this the death rate is 6% for those with determined outcomes.









						Coronavirus Update (Live): 107,957,657 Cases and 2,367,471 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Seasoned Oak

According to some reports 85% of those who get this have no or mild symptoms. If they only test those with certain serious symptoms they could be missing a huge block of people not yet tested but positive nonetheless. If thats the case these numbers are way off.  Also when dealing with nursing home patients death rates are high without any external help.


----------



## ABMax24

Seasoned Oak said:


> According to some reports 85% of those who get this have no or mild symptoms. If they only test those with certain serious symptoms they could be missing a huge block of people not yet tested but positive nonetheless. If thats the case these numbers are way off.  Also when dealing with nursing home patients death rates are high without any external help.



Agreed that definitely could also be the case. The problem is the most data should be coming out of China, but I'm not confident the Chinese are releasing the full story, assuming they even know what the full extent of the outbreak is.


----------



## webfish

Interesting read. More on the speed af the spread and if system can handle it. 

https://www.baconsrebellion.com/wp/running-the-numbers-on-coronavirus-in-america/

another  site picked up her tweets.https://dailyhodl.com/2020/03/08/ho...-math-as-16-million-are-quarantined-in-italy/


*The essential math.* In the 24th (!) tweet in her chain Dr. Specht writes, “I’m an engineer. This is what my mind does all day: I run back-of the-envelope calculations to try to estimate order-of-magnitude impacts.” I frequently find myself doing the same thing. Let’s look at Dr. Specht’s math.

On March 6 there were approximately 250 confirmed cases of  COVID-19 in the US.
America’s lack of test kits means that there are far more cases than have been detected to date. Specht uses an 8X multiplier to get 2,000 actual cases as of March 6.
Using epidemiological methods and models, Specht sees the number of cases doubling every six days. Confirmed cases may appear to rise even faster as more test kits are rolled out.
This exponential progression calculates one million U.S. cases by the end of April, two million by May 5, four million by May 11, etc.
The virus will continue to expand exponentially until it has infected more than 1% of the “susceptible population” at which time it may slow. Specht never defines “susceptible population,” but I assume all Americans are susceptible.  That generates 3.3 million infections before the spread even slows.
Using Italy as a guide, 10% of those infected will require hospitalization. That leaves us with a need for 330,000 hospital beds before the presumed pandemic even slows.
America has about one million hospital beds; 65% are typically in use at any given time. That means 350,000 open beds although the “regular flu” this time of year might push utilization above 65%.
Even if every open hospital bed in the U.S. is suitable for the isolation of patients with infectious diseases, the hospitals will be full by May 8th.
As the hospitals fill, the demand for doctors and nurses will also increase. This brings up the question of protective masks for health care workers.
There are 18 million healthcare workers in the U.S.. The U.S. has a “stockpile” of 12 million N-95 masks and 30 million surgical masks.
Once the virus starts to spread in earnest, every working health care worker will need a mask. Using the conservative assumption of one third of health care workers treating patients each day and the more conservative assumption of using one mask per day the supply of masks will run out in two days. (_Note: I cannot follow Dr. Specht’s math here: 42M masks / 6m health care workers on a given day = seven days of supply, not two.)_
Almost all masks used in the U.S. are manufactured overseas, mostly in China. Even the raw materials for masks come from outside the U.S., mostly from China.


----------



## Ashful

begreen said:


> Amazing. What are the odds of that with only a dozen cases in FL?


I could calculate the odds tonight if you like.  But it’s probably sufficient to say that, while the odds of _me _sitting near someone with a sibling having been diagnosed with corona are quite low, with so many people not this forum the odds of someone on this forum sitting next to someone with a close relative who has corona virus are probably not that remarkable.  She’s retirement age, so that also skews the odds, as it seems damn near half of our local retirement age citizens head for Florida every winter.

I really fear for some of my older relatives, the odds for anyone over age 70 are really not very good, but I’m also thankful to see the numbers for younger folks are much lower.


----------



## semipro

begreen said:


> A stat in the WHO report that intrigues me is that the mortality rate of 3.4% which confirms what I had been seeing. Broken down,  it said that the average rate was about double for men than for women, something like 4.6 vs 2.8% IIRC. That really got me wondering what was up. My hypothesis was that this is because the men were mostly smokers and the women were not. Had to look it up, but sure enough, about 50% of Chinese men smoke and less than 3% Chinese women smoke. If this is true then once we look back it would be good to investigate if this is a trend across populations. I am wondering if the elevated mortality rate in Italy might confirm my hypothesis if most were smokers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China: share of smoking adults by gender 2000-2020 | Statista
> 
> 
> The statistic shows the share of adult population who smoke in China in selected years from 2000 to 2020, broken down by gender.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.statista.com


According to the CDC about 13% of adult Americans smoke.  If the smoking hypothesis holds then we should see a lower death rate in the U.S. as compared to China - maybe 0.88% based on the numbers above. 
Of course, outbreaks within an at-risk population (e.g. senior care facility) rather than the general population can really skew the numbers.


----------



## Grizzerbear

St. Louis coronavirus: Family breaks quarantine attending Villa father-daughter dance, prompting school closures
					

The family of the St. Louis County woman who tested positive for COVID-19 broke quarantine and attended a father-daughter school dance Saturday evening at Villa Duchesne, County Executive Sam Page




					www.kmov.com
				




This is why they will have trouble stopping the spread.


----------



## mcdougy

Good luck to all, living with a critical care nurse scares the hell out of me.....I've asked her what she thinks about living at the hospital for the next 4-5 months.   Here the health system is prepared fairly well. The problem is ventilators or the lack of them. Protocol is saying to put patients on a vent as soon as possible. They are passing a law here that allows doctors to determine who gets one and who will have to give there's up. First come first serve is not practical for the 50yr old who needs a vent when the 85yr old is using it. This city has about 150 vents. Scary stuff.


----------



## PaulOinMA

Chemistry symposium lecture and dinner at UConn I was going to attend on Wednesday just cancelled.  Was looking forward to it.  

https://rtmajor.chemistry.uconn.edu/

_Dear Paul, 
 In light of the growing unease of many when it comes to traveling and gathering in larger groups, and the increasing unreliable air travel connections, we decided to cancel this week’s R.T. Major Lecture series events._

My wife is supposed to fly to SLC on Sunday.


----------



## begreen

semipro said:


> According to the CDC about 13% of adult Americans smoke.  If the smoking hypothesis holds then we should see a lower death rate in the U.S. as compared to China - maybe 0.88% based on the numbers above.
> Of course, outbreaks within an at-risk population (e.g. senior care facility) rather than the general population can really skew the numbers.


It's just a hypothesis. There could easily be another factor or factors. Maybe the men there drink more, snort rhino horn or pick their noses more.


----------



## begreen

mcdougy said:


> The problem is ventilators or the lack of them. Protocol is saying to put patients on a vent as soon as possible. They are passing a law here that allows doctors to determine who gets one and who will have to give there's up.


This is what has been the issue in all areas around the world. We are not prepared for this. The second issue is a major lack of testing kits. Locally the Gates Foundation is ready to throw some money at this to improve the situation here. 

Trivializing the situation is exactly the wrong procedure. We are still learning about this virus. It has surprised us in several ways. For instance, it is showing up in warm areas and spreading there. And in Italy with a very good health care system, the mortality rate is so far higher (4.96% as of today). One in twenty is not reassuring.


----------



## paulnlee

PaulOinMA said:


> Chemistry symposium lecture and dinner at UConn I was going to attend on Wednesday just cancelled.  Was looking forward to it.
> 
> https://rtmajor.chemistry.uconn.edu/
> 
> _Dear Paul,
> In light of the growing unease of many when it comes to traveling and gathering in larger groups, and the increasing unreliable air travel connections, we decided to cancel this week’s R.T. Major Lecture series events._
> 
> My wife is supposed to fly to SLC on Sunday.


Bet they don't cancel tonights UCONN women's BB championship game( I hope)


----------



## Highbeam

begreen said:


> It has surprised us in several ways. For instance, it is showing up in warm areas and spreading there.



Does this perhaps shoot holes in the theory that warm weather will stop it as has been suggested?


----------



## begreen

Highbeam said:


> Does this perhaps shoot holes in the theory that warm weather will stop it as has been suggested?


Possibly. There are a lot of unknowns at this stage. It's related to MERS which started in Saudi Arabia.  Not a cool place.


----------



## PaulOinMA

paulnlee said:


> … Bet they don't cancel tonights UCONN women's BB championship game( I hope) ...



I've been to Mohegan Sun for some basketball games.  Very nice size arena to watch a game.


----------



## Ashful

In conversation around the office, most still think it’s just hype, the usual media panic we’ve experience so many times before.  They cite mad cow, bird flu, SARS, MERS, and all the other similar panics, that turned out to be zero for us.  If they haven’t been reading up on this one, I could actually forgive them for that, but I think they’re wrong.

Folks keep saying it’s no worse than the flu, but the simple math doesn’t support that notion:

Age 50-64:  Flu mortality = 5676/9,238,038 = 0.06%
Age 50-59:  COVID-19 mortality = 1.3% = 22x worse than flu
Age 60-69:  COVID-19 mortality = 3.6% = 60x worse than flu

As you get older, both flu and COVID-19 rates go way up, with the highest COVID-19 I’ve seen at 14.8% estimated and 21.9% confirmed for age 80+.  The confirmed rates are always higher, because the rates typically quoted include an estimate for the number of undiagnosed cases in the denominator of that equation, whereas the confirmed stats (when even given) are based only on actual confirmed cases.


----------



## begreen

It's too early to set the denominator, but without any doubt this is much more serious than the common flu.


----------



## mcdougy

We have heard nothing of warm weather stalling this flu. They are preparing for May to be when things really get going here.  Maybe a good idea for those who take prescription medication to have a bit of supply on hand is what the health system here is recommending. The basic info is there's no need to stock up on much stuff to cause the hoarding chaos. We had our first death in Canada today. They are still saying don't panic because it's just a matter of time before this virus infects the masses.


----------



## begreen

This is a direct, sobering blog post by a friend's daughter. It was sent out to her family members and they asked that she post it. She has spent many years treating epidemics. These are her recommendations. 




__





						Coronavirus: an email to my family — Juliana Grant, MD MPH
					

A number of my friends and family asked me what I think is going to happen with coronavirus (COVID-19) and what we should be doing to prepare. Here are a few thoughts about what’s likely to happen and what you can do about it.




					www.julianagrant.com


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

begreen said:


> This is a direct, sobering blog post by a friend's daughter. It was sent out to her family members and they asked that she post it. She has spent many years treating epidemics. These are her recommendations.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus: an email to my family — Juliana Grant, MD MPH
> 
> 
> A number of my friends and family asked me what I think is going to happen with coronavirus (COVID-19) and what we should be doing to prepare. Here are a few thoughts about what’s likely to happen and what you can do about it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.julianagrant.com


Thanks for sharing.


----------



## thewoodlands

There won't be fans at this Division 1 hockey playoff game at RPI, a college north of here isn't stopping fans from going to those playoff games...yet.








						RPI hockey quarterfinals to be played without spectators
					

Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) and ECAC Hockey announced Sunday that the upcoming...




					www.timesunion.com


----------



## MTY

This does not seem to be taken very seriously locally and that is most likely a huge mistake.  While there is a fair amount of hoarding taking place, the general public does not appear to have bought into the idea that a good portion of the population may not be around in a year or so. 
The idea that any inhabited region is safe seems patently false given the amount of travel that takes place on a daily basis.  The Grant email makes as much sense as anything I have seen so far.  
Should this last two years, the world as we know it will be devastated, and even if some of us old geezers live through it, we most likely will not relish the new normal.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Always thought humanities greatest danger came from asteroids or super volcanos but in reality it comes from something so small we cant even see it without a microscope. I just read about this possibility a few months before all this started. The article was dead on whats happening right now. Sobering!


----------



## mcdougy

Coronavirus could infect 35 to 70 per cent of Canadians, experts say
					

If there is a pandemic, makeshift hospitals and quarantine centres could be needed to shore up a health system that has virtually no give, experts say




					lfpress.com
				






			https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-canada-death-1.5491907
		


First article in the local newspaper and the second is from our national newspaper. Plain English as to what the predicted path may be.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

mcdougy said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-canada-death-1.5491907


That is one of the best articles and explanations iv read so far.  Just the facts.


----------



## Eightball1313

Seasoned Oak said:


> That is one of the best articles and explanations iv read so far.  Just the facts.


Seriously i agree, i wish from the start they would have named it some scary name like Bubonic Flu or something lol instead of soft language Covid 19, and then told the truth and said its going to kill a lot of people and make people realize that its not a joke and then maybe people would stop going on cruise ships and vacations in the middle of a near pandemic.


----------



## MTY

As I was taping today, I remembered a couple of other great things out of China.  Sheetrock imported from China made many new homes uninhabitable.  This must have been about 20 years ago.  
I was working there in 2007 & 8 and came home just before the world found out they were putting melamine in baby formula.  
I met some great people while there.  However, the country as a whole has not done the world many favors lately.  
Now they have served up a great big heaping pile of economic instability and disease.


----------



## Ashful

MTY said:


> As I was taping today, I remembered a couple of other great things out of China.  Sheetrock imported from China made many new homes uninhabitable.  This must have been about 20 years ago.
> I was working there in 2007 & 8 and came home just before the world found out they were putting melamine in baby formula.
> I met some great people while there.  However, the country as a whole has not done the world many favors lately.
> Now they have served up a great big heaping pile of economic instability and disease.


I suppose that with 15% of the world's population, they're likely to be blamed for at least 15% of our problems.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

MTY said:


> I met some great people while there.  However, the country as a whole has not done the world many favors lately.
> Now they have served up a great big heaping pile of economic instability and disease.


The chinese people iv had contact with dont trust their govt either. For me i avoid anything coming from there if possible particularly food items. If they have standards no one seems to be  concerned with them. Now that they have been testing imported chinese goods on a large scale a shocking 12% have been found to be some type of contraband. Counterfeit money,all kinds of illegal drugs including fentanyl, tons of fake merchandise. Ect Ect.I like the people but dont trust the Govt as far as i can throw them. But you cant expect much from a communist country. Now we cant get needed medical supplies cuz we foolishly let them take over that market too for so long and now have been cut off.


----------



## begreen

How much do you trust a govt. that is more concerned about keeping the numbers low than widespread and fast testing response and accurate numbers?


----------



## Seasoned Oak

begreen said:


> How much do you trust a govt. that is more concerned about keeping the numbers low than widespread and fast testing response and accurate numbers?


More than one that would shoot you for reporting on it.


----------



## AlbergSteve

begreen said:


> How much do you trust a govt. that is more concerned about keeping the numbers low than widespread and fast testing response and accurate numbers?


I see what you did there...


----------



## begreen

Seasoned Oak said:


> More than one that would shoot you for reporting on it.


"If I go there will be trouble, an' if I stay it will be double"


----------



## PaulOinMA

My wife is supposed to fly to SLC Sunday.

We had Channel 7 news on this morning as we had breakfast (hot cocoa for Nan; Carnation Breakfast Essentials shake for me).

Nan asked, "should I stay or should I go?"

Right at that time, a booming "DON'T GO ANYWHERE" announcer voice was on the TV before they cut to commercial.  
	

	
	
		
		

		
			





A UConn professor, someone I went to school with (high school, college, and grad school, oddly enough), and I have plans to have lunch with our elderly graduate advisor in Needham, MA  Saturday.  He's 92.  Going to ask them if we should postpone.  Large retirement facility full of elderly folks probably doesn't want three strangers showing up for lunch.


----------



## PaulOinMA

Just saw this on a car web site I frequent.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

begreen said:


> "If I go there will be trouble, an' if I stay it will be double"


Going to need a lot more test kits.
Could be awhile before much of the public is satisfied everyone is not going to die.  Until then stirring up more panic will just make things 10x worse.  Panic at the top would be the most irresponsible thing right now,and we are seeing some of that at the state level. IMHO. Mixed feeling on our govt response , travel restrictions from china, good move, but what about Italy whats the holdup there.


----------



## peakbagger

I don't think the vaccine will come in time unless CV-19 reoccurs annually There are multiple trials for a previously developed antiviral for Ebola  https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-remdesivir-treat-covid-19-begins that has some promise. Its been proven not be harmful to humans previously but the question is does it impact CV-19.  It does work on SARS  in test tube. Antivirals along with instant test kits which are already developed in Korea means a major decrease in mortality as if someone tests positive  or even exposed the doctor can give them a script for the antiviral. My deceased parents were in assisted living/skilled nursing care and they handed out Tamiflu like candy whenever the staff even suspected there was case of the flu in the building. This new drug if it tests out supposedly requires 5 days of IV administered doses so not as convenient as Tamiflu but its still a potential game changer.  Folks with shares in Gilead Pharmaceuticals are definitely hoping the trials work out  

The usual issue with antivirals is they just delay the onset of more severe symptoms while the body cranks up an immune response. If the patient has an under or over active immune system they may not help.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

peakbagger said:


> Antivirals along with instant test kits which are already developed in Korea means a major decrease in mortality as if someone tests positive  or even exposed the doctor can give them a script for the antiviral. .


Some test kits coming from Singapore. This whole thing just started in December so thats a factor in test kits and vaccines.


----------



## begreen

peakbagger said:


> I don't think the vaccine will come in time unless CV-19 reoccurs annually There are multiple trials for a previously developed antiviral for Ebola  https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-remdesivir-treat-covid-19-begins that has some promise. Its been proven not be harmful to humans previously but the question is does it impact CV-19.  It does work on SARS  in test tube. Antivirals along with instant test kits which are already developed in Korea means a major decrease in mortality as if someone tests positive  or even exposed the doctor can give them a script for the antiviral. My deceased parents were in assisted living/skilled nursing care and they handed out Tamiflu like candy whenever the staff even suspected there was case of the flu in the building. This new drug if it tests out supposedly requires 5 days of IV administered doses so not as convenient as Tamiflu but its still a potential game changer.  Folks with shares in Gilead Pharmaceuticals are definitely hoping the trials work out
> 
> The usual issue with antivirals is they just delay the onset of more severe symptoms while the body cranks up an immune response. If the patient has an under or over active immune system they may not help.


Definitely not fast.  Scientists are wrestling with the moral dilemma of rushing a drug to market and unintended consequences.

I've read that there are 3 different paths working on the vaccine. These are more based on research on SARS and MERS. Two of the paths are based on delivering the protein that the virus creates (those knobs that stud it) in a vaccine form so that the body can develop antibodies. The third path is by developing antibodies to the virus in animals (or in vitrio) and then using those antibodies for the vaccine. This third path would likely only provide temporary immunity  of 1-3 months, but that is better than nothing and could buy time.

The ebola medicine, Remdesivir,  is a different approach, it is not a vaccine, but a last line of defense in treatment when the docs are losing the battle. It has succeeded in several cases in China and I think in the US, but am not sure if our docs are being allowed to use it off label.

The FDA is there to protect us, but in cases like this it can be too slow and cumbersome to relax regs on testing. This probably cost the Seattle region several weeks in early detection and containment.  There has been an ongoing flu study since last fall conducted by the UW. They had thousands of swab tests for the flu. One doc thought it would be good to check for Covid-19 as well, but was told that was not allowed due to privacy regs set by the govt.. By late Feb. the doc saw what was happening in China and went ahead with the testing taking full responsibility. She found a case, in a teenager with no travel to an affected area, which meant it was in the wild and community spread. Her results freaked out officials, shut down the kid's school and got her a scolding, but if she had been listened to and started early we could have averted spread. Now they expect there are hundreds if not thousands of cases in the wild locally. Basic math says that within a week or two we will be in the many tens of thousands if not higher.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

begreen said:


> She found a case, in a teenager with no travel to an affected area, which meant it was in the wild and community spread. Her results freaked out officials, shut down the kid's school and got her a scolding, but if she had been listened to and started early we could have averted spread. Now they expect there are hundreds if not thousands of cases in the wild locally. Basic math says that within a week or two we will be in the many tens of thousands if not higher.


Looks like everyone has to be tested, is there that many test kits available? Probably not.


----------



## maple1

First presumptive case in Atlantic Canada announced a couple hours ago. Only an hour away from me. Things just got a heck of a lot closer to home.


----------



## Highbeam

Or just assume we all are infected.


----------



## begreen

Seasoned Oak said:


> Looks like everyone has to be tested, is there that many test kits available? Probably not.


Not unless the FDA and CDC speed up letting commercial labs join the testing effort. They want to be cautious which is understandable, but time is of the essence here.


----------



## begreen

Highbeam said:


> Or just assume we all are infected.


That would almost be as bad as not knowing. Testing is critical for tracking the spread and acting appropriately instead of randomly.  With an aggressive response, this disease can be shut down. Chinese cases are just a trickle now compared to a month ago.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

begreen said:


> . Chinese cases are just a trickle now compared to a month ago.


If you can believe anything coming out of china. Did they ever let CDC in?


----------



## begreen

Seasoned Oak said:


> If you can believe anything coming out of china. Did they ever let CDC in?


WHO has been there and released an extensive report about a week ago.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

begreen said:


> WHO has been there and released an extensive report about a week ago.


Well thats some encouraging news.  You would think the more people who have it, the harder it would be to contain it.


----------



## begreen

Seasoned Oak said:


> Well thats some encouraging news.  You would think the more people who have it, the harder it would be to contain it.


Difference being extreme intervention. Something that is unlikely to happen here. For those that like to do the math, here are some evolving scenarios. 








						What does the coronavirus mean for the U.S. health care system? Some simple math offers alarming answers
					

At a 10% hospitalization rate, all hospital beds in the U.S. will be filled by about May 10. As #Covid19 cases saturate nearly every state and county, health care workers would burn through the national stockpile of N95 masks in two days.




					www.statnews.com


----------



## Seasoned Oak

begreen said:


> Difference being extreme intervention. Something that is unlikely to happen here. For those that like to do the math, here are some evolving scenarios.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What does the coronavirus mean for the U.S. health care system? Some simple math offers alarming answers
> 
> 
> At a 10% hospitalization rate, all hospital beds in the U.S. will be filled by about May 10. As #Covid19 cases saturate nearly every state and county, health care workers would burn through the national stockpile of N95 masks in two days.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.statnews.com


"Unwarranted panic does no one any good, but neither does ill-informed complacency. "
Taken from the article, this is what is going to be very hard to get right. There is no middle ground with this as everyones idea of each of these is different . Panic is already here and has the potential to make this whole situation become much worse than it already is. The most encouraging takeaway was that most cases can be managed at home.


----------



## begreen

Seasoned Oak said:


> The most encouraging takeaway was that most cases can be managed at home.


Yes, and 80% will be ok afterward. It's us geezers this bugger is after. 

 Got news about an hour ago that this has started here in our small town. The first case just reported and confirmed. He was commuting in with coworkers in a vanpool. That whole department, and all the vanpool members are now in quarantine.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Wow travel from Europe just got shut down for 30 days ,didnt see that coming so soon. Should have shut down flights out of italy  weeks ago. Also im sure this will be worse in 30 days not better.


----------



## mcdougy

I think the main plan is simple, if your feeling sick , don't go anywhere, self isolate. If you start feeling worse, call an ambulance or get to the hospital. If your over 60 or have health issues, don't fool around for very long if you feel you worse. Get to the hospital quick.

This virus is coming strong to North America.
Don't panic, they know how to handle it. China is proving that.
They just suspended all games in the NBA as a player just tested positive.


----------



## williamtell

Anyone who has paid any attention to how this administration has joyfully gutted public health shouldn't be surprised.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

williamtell said:


> Anyone who has paid any attention to how this administration has joyfully gutted public health shouldn't be surprised.


Be aware there is help for those suffering from TDS . Consult your local heath provider.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Tom hanks and wife now tested positive in Australia.  I wasnt aware it was raging thru there.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

begreen said:


> Yes, and 80% will be ok afterward. It's us geezers this bugger is after.
> Got news about an hour ago that this has started here in our small town.


Time to hunker down BG. Im set up to get most on my supplies and a good portion of my groceries by mail from Sams club at no shipping cost. Its a 60 mile drive one way anyway so ill save a lot of gas and time and wont have to risk exposure .


----------



## ABMax24

I'm hoping this data is skewed but Italy is showing a 44% death rate for closed cases thus far.









						Italy COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Italy Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## begreen

ABMax24 said:


> I'm hoping this data is skewed but Italy is showing a 44% death rate for closed cases thus far.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Italy COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
> 
> 
> Italy Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.worldometers.info


The data is skewed and will continue to be until the storm passes. That's because the denominator is changing constantly. with most numbers coming from the front line. It is not yet including the many that are staying at home, sick and toughing it out.

Here is the most important part.  If people do not go out unnecessarily to events, bars, restaurants, movies and large public gatherings then the contact ratio drops and hospital systems can "just barely" keep up with incoming cases. If people ignore warning and go out regardless, then the virus infections will continue to double at least once every 6 days. That leads to complete medical system overload, even in the best equipped communities. In Italy they are having to make the hard choices to refuse beds to those least likely to survive. There are only so many beds and ventilators in the system.


----------



## ABMax24

begreen said:


> The data is skewed and will continue to be until the storm passes. That's because the denominator is changing constantly. with most numbers coming from the front line. It is not yet including the many that are staying at home, sick and toughing it out.
> 
> Here is the most important part.  If people do not go out unnecessarily to events, bars, restaurants, movies and large public gatherings then the contact ratio drops and hospital systems can "just barely" keep up with incoming cases. If people ignore warning and go out regardless, then the virus infections will continue to double at least once every 6 days. That leads to complete medical system overload, even in the best equipped communities. In Italy they are having to make the hard choices to refuse beds to those least likely to survive. There are only so many beds and ventilators in the system.



I agree, but even if the hospitals are seeing the worst of the worst, 44% isn't a comforting number.


----------



## MTY

I never expected this thread to take off like it did.  
As an old guy, I find I am considerably more worried about the ones I care about than myself.  I know that I have to take care of myself, but the overwhelming reason for doing so is to avoid turning into the covid version of Typhoid Mary.  
From a psychological level, how would one deal with being the first in the family to catch the virus, surviving it, and then watching others in the family perish?  I know I think too much, but it seems becoming ill may be the least of one's worries.  
I am not looking forward to the next few months.


----------



## begreen

Another reason to hunker down.








						Tests indicate coronavirus can survive in the air
					

Federally funded tests conducted by scientists from several major institutions indicated that the novel form of coronavirus behind a worldwide outbreak can survive in the air for several hours.A st…




					thehill.com


----------



## williamtell

Seasoned Oak said:


> Be aware there is help for those suffering from TDS . Consult your local heath provider.



You just illustrated the entire problem with the current state of affairs. 

Educated people have continuously spoke out at the flippant disregard for the institutions, regulations, and norms that been attacked under attack and dismantled he last three years. People who have loyally served both parties for decades were eliminated and if they were replaced, it was by lobbyist who had absolutely no credibility in that field.

The only rebuttal has been childish name calling, incoherent 4th grade attacks, and pretending that there isn't a problem.


----------



## maple1

I am thinking that there is no way that these early stats can be anywhere close to accurate. In order to be anything close to accurate, you would first need to know how many people have the virus. And as far as I know, there is nowhere near enough testing being done anywhere to determine that. I suspect there are very large numbers of people out there who have the virus & don't even know it.


----------



## vinny11950

Here is economist Nouriel Roubini talking about what this may do to the economy.  In short, there is a lot of debt out there and insolvencies will go up.


----------



## PaulOinMA

I receive a daily Yale News e-mail.  Just straightforward advice without political hype ...









						Public Health Prof. Albert Ko on protecting yourself against coronavirus
					

Ko, an epidemiologist and expert in infectious diseases, discusses the do’s and don’ts of stopping COVID-19 from spreading.




					news.yale.edu


----------



## Seasoned Oak

williamtell said:


> You just illustrated the entire problem with the current state of affairs.


There is always a problem , been that way for many years.  And many administrations. We all respect each others opinion here. Once the political bashing starts no matter which direction its going the discussion goes downhill from there ,EVERY TIME.  Which is why the moderators strongly discourage injecting politics and or your particular religion into the discussion. A very wise decision. Was once something called the "ash can" here for that but even that was retired as a lost cause.


----------



## vinny11950

Seasoned Oak said:


> There is always a problem , been that way for many years.  And many administrations. We all respect each others opinion here. Once the political bashing starts no matter which direction its going the discussion goes downhill from there ,EVERY TIME.  Which is why the moderators strongly discourage injecting politics and or your particular religion into the discussion. A very wise decision. Was once something called the "ash can" here for that but even that was retired as a lost cause.



Williamtell was just pointing out the obvious.  The administration on Tuesday was in Congress testifying and justifying budget cuts to the CDC.  They also disbanded the pandemic team at NSC.  Add to that their efforts to crush Obamacare (uninsured rate is rising again) and we begin to see that this administration is not prepared for this because they don't have a public health policy.  That is Governing 101.  Look at what South Korea has done.  We are underperforming at this.  If we can't say the truth what's the point of these discussions?


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Looks like china is blaming the US for the Corona Virus. I guess they dont like the made in china label.


			https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/conspiracy-theorists-blame-the-us-for-coronavirus-china-is-happy-to-encourage-them/2020/03/05/50875458-5dc8-11ea-ac50-18701e14e06d_story.html


----------



## Seasoned Oak

vinny11950 said:


> .  We are underperforming at this.


 Just last night i listened to the MSM complain the Europe travel ban was too much. What  about travelers stuck at airports ect ect. So even the liberal media are not all on the same page.  Cant have it both ways.


----------



## SeanBB

Seasoned Oak said:


> Just last night i listened to the MSM complain the Europe travel ban was too much. What  about travelers stuck at airports ect ect. So even the liberal media are not all on the same page.  Cant have it both ways.



The ban is only for Schengen Area countries. Which seems a bit odd because the virus is still in the infected person whether they show a passport or not.


----------



## vinny11950

Seasoned Oak said:


> Just last night i listened to the MSM complain the Europe travel ban was too much. What  about travelers stuck at airports ect ect. So even the liberal media are not all on the same page.  Cant have it both ways.



I am sorry, I can't make sense of this, Randy.


----------



## PaulOinMA

Was going to listen to the RU- Michigan game at noon on WCTC 1450 AM web site.  Nope.  Bid 10, SEC, and AAC cancel tournaments.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

The blame game will go into hyper drive no doubt. The panic quite possibly will be worse than the virus. Were probably already there. I fully expect to get this at some point.  Truck drivers going to every small town in america delivering food supplies,meat,produce. Store employees waiting on every shopping family in town. Were all connected in so many ways.


----------



## SeanBB

The World Health Organisation has confirmed that dogs cannot contract Covid-19.
Dogs previously kept in quarantine may now be released.
Just to be clear on this - WHO let the dogs out


----------



## paulnlee

PaulOinMA said:


> Was going to listen to the RU- Michigan game at noon on WCTC 1450 AM web site.  Nope.  Bid 10, SEC, and AAC cancel tournaments.


Don't know if you're an RU fan but they would have lost anyway. Haven't had a decent team since Tom Young.


----------



## tadmaz

In the Milwaukee area, my local costco in the middle of the day has lines to the back of the store, and a wait to get in.  A few days ago costco was fine and just had some limits on paper products.  Paper products are now gone.


----------



## begreen

Based on previous pandemics, it appears that almost all of the population will get hit. If not with the first wave then with a second one. According to this expert, there will be a second wave hitting China as they resume work and travel. (There were 3 waves with the Spanish Flu.) This is a no BS interview with him a couple of days ago. He has worked with several administrations and has no political agenda other than placing public health foremost. 

_"Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota. Look for his book "Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Deadly Germs""

_


----------



## PaulOinMA

No sports to watch on TV.  Going to make a real dent in all the things we have recorded at Comcast to watch.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

begreen said:


> This is a no BS interview with him a couple of days ago. He has worked with several administrations and has no political agenda other than placing public health foremost.


Nothing he said was reassuring ,especially the part about horrible cases in their 40 s in italy, its going to get bad. Also Obesity is a big risk factor so america is in trouble.


----------



## SpaceBus

Seasoned Oak said:


> Nothing he said was reassuring ,especially the part about horrible cases in their 40 s in italy, its going to get bad. Also Obesity is a big risk factor so america is in trouble.


I think obesity is a factor because of inactivity/being sedentary. I think active people will be ok.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

SpaceBus said:


> I think obesity is a factor because of inactivity/being sedentary. I think active people will be ok.


More likely because their organs are already stressed and compromised.  Plus many have breathing difficulty already. Death rate is as high as 7% for those with diabetes ,and most obese are diabetic.


begreen said:


> Based on previous pandemics, it appears that almost all of the population will get hit. If not with the first wave then with a second one.
> This is a no BS interview with him a couple of days ago.
> __



This guy (Michael Osterholm) was on Fox news a few minutes ago spelling out what we can expect. Yes he is a pretty straight shooter. All Schools closed in Kentucky Ohio and Maryland . Situation changing by the hour.


----------



## mcdougy

They are cancelling about everything here. Just ended all kids hockey in this province. Here we go.... Let's hope this ends much sooner than anticipated.


----------



## Medic21

maple1 said:


> I am thinking that there is no way that these early stats can be anywhere close to accurate. In order to be anything close to accurate, you would first need to know how many people have the virus. And as far as I know, there is nowhere near enough testing being done anywhere to determine that. I suspect there are very large numbers of people out there who have the virus & don't even know it.



Some of the number I have seen through the States Department of Health they are estimating up to 35,000 in county have already been exposed. There is no way possible without testing every person for antibodies to know.

I said from the beginning that this has been here since before China acknowledged it.  Our world is far too interconnected with flight and other forms of open travel that it took 6 weeks for it to move.  People need to relax and just take precautions.  It will infect, from experts, up to 80% of Americans before it’s done.  Majority will only have minimal symptoms.


----------



## MTY

And now the West Coast states are experiencing a run on arms and ammo according to a number of sporting goods distributors I work with.  What are they doing?  Guarding the TP?  

Still quiet in this part of Idaho.


----------



## SpaceBus

Medic21 said:


> Some of the number I have seen through the States Department of Health they are estimating up to 35,000 in county have already been exposed. There is no way possible without testing every person for antibodies to know.
> 
> I said from the beginning that this has been here since before China acknowledged it.  Our world is far too interconnected with flight and other forms of open travel that it took 6 weeks for it to move.  People need to relax and just take precautions.  It will infect, from experts, up to 80% of Americans before it’s done.  Majority will only have minimal symptoms.



I think you are right and most folks have it here already. A lady at work was out for three weeks due to a horrible cough and high fever, and she confirmed it was viral and not bacterial.


----------



## SpaceBus

MTY said:


> And now the West Coast states are experiencing a run on arms and ammo according to a number of sporting goods distributors I work with.  What are they doing?  Guarding the TP?
> 
> Still quiet in this part of Idaho.


Here on the other side things are also quiet, but I expect that to change in the next few days.


----------



## semipro

MTY said:


> What are they doing? Guarding the TP?


Wouldn't you?


----------



## Sawset

I have an neighbor who has a stockpile of necessary items.  Tp, generator with whole house hookup, bottled water, sanitizer, windshield washer fluid, a hand pump outside.  All gone unused from 20yrs ago, y2k.  I joked that the tp is probably like sand paper now 80 grit having been stored downstairs in the damp.  The shallow well pump gives iron swamp water, no use.  The generator is faithfully started every few months to keep it fresh - just in case.  No stockpile of fuel for it though, whole house sized, needs a lot of gas to keep it going.  Can't go out for a walk, too many coyotes around.  Aliens will be pulling in any moment to beam up the lucky victim, yet will get the boot back out once they find out the real story.  Current dilemma means urgent restocking. I used to joke about people back when in the 18-1900s going loony and having crazy ideas,  Orson Welles style.  They're amongst us still.


----------



## Grizzerbear

First case has been diagnosed in Springfield, Mo. A twenty something female that had traveled to Austria. Hospitals and clinics are not allowing children under 12 to come in unless they are sick and school basketball games are cancelled. I imagine it's a matter of time before schools shut down.


----------



## johneh

Ontario Canada Schools are on March break 1 week 
The Ontario Gov has now shut schools for the following 2 weeks 
after March break. A lot of people here travel South for March break 
most I know have canceled their trips and are going to stay home. This
 whole thing is going to cost the travel industry billions of  dollars 
I went for my annual heart check-up this week at registration the first question asked 
"Have you traveled out of the country in the last 12 months " I heard the lady beside me say yes 
and that's when the questions started flying.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Wegmans Collegeville PA,


----------



## Seasoned Oak

The panic doesnt seem to have reached my small town just yet. Just came back from my local Provision store a block away and i was the only one in the store. All shelves full. I got my usual spring stock of 40 Lbs chicken drumstix for the grill and a whole NY strip to freeze no problem. At least a 6 month supply.


----------



## CaptSpiff

Seasoned Oak said:


> Wegmans (photo of cheap bananas)



Oh heck, 49 cents a pound, I'm getting some of those too !   79 cents a pound here


----------



## Seasoned Oak

CaptSpiff said:


> Oh heck, 49 cents a pound, I'm getting some of those too !   79 cents a pound here


Cant imagine what they are doing with all the bananas,they rot pretty fast.


----------



## Ashful

Seasoned Oak said:


> Wegmans Collegeville


I shop there several times per year.  I live at essentially “ground zero” for Coronavirus in the mid-Atlantic right now.  Early this week, all other PA schools canceled their sports and other events with our district.  Yesterday, the governor closed schools and non-critical businesses in my county, only.  All public events are canceled.

Last night, there was not a single open parking space at any grocery store in our area.  It was a total mad rush on the stores.  That Wegmans photo reflects the state of every one of our local stores, today.

Those of you who think you’re going to be immune to this chaos need to watch the full length of the Rogan video that begreen posted above.  This same chaos is coming your way, it‘s only a matter of time.

The primary focus of government right now is to control the rate of infection, so as to minimize any spike that will overload our hospitals.  We will likely all get this, and most of us will do just fine through it, but it would be very easy for us to end up in a situation like Italy today, if they don’t carefully control the rate of spread.

Right now, they’re having to send some of the sickest people home to die in Italy, or deny them hospital entry altogether, in order to free beds up for those more likely to survive.  That’s what happens when a bug like this generates new cases more quickly than our healthcare system can process.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

We normally keep a good bit of provisions and frozen food at home all the time.  Could probably go a few months easily before the shelves and freezer at home start looking bare.  Many do not,have no deep freeze, mostly eat fast food and take out.  Including some of my grown kids. The hoarding will get here soon enough. Those of us who are news junkies get the message faster.


----------



## Grizzerbear

Seasoned Oak said:


> Cant imagine what they are doing with all the bananas,they rot pretty fast.


That's when you make banana bread


----------



## peakbagger

Much as this thread seems to like the doom and gloom route, there are some positive signs out there. Remdesivir has been approved for compassionate use in the US. There are some claims that it was effective in early trials but nothing official until April. Roche has gotten approval for a far faster test that was not designed by the US government so its probably going to get into circuation quickly.  The states and even corporations are stepping in to slow down community transmission.  Sure there are still plenty of folks that already have been exposed who are going to get it and some reducing percentage are going to get it hard and may not survive it plus plenty of cracks in the system for further transmission but every indication is its not the end of the world as we know it.


----------



## Highbeam

Have you noticed even posters in this thread changing their tune? Going from less to more worried?


----------



## Seasoned Oak

I hear the sound of this thread going off the rails. Hard to resist though, its such a target rich enviroment for both sides .Only the beer thread seems to be immune to politics after so many posts. Good thing.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

Seasoned Oak said:


> I hear the sound of this thread going off the rails. Only the beer thread seems to be immune to politics after so many posts. Good thing.


No politics, just some humor. I can delete it if you want me to.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Jan Pijpelink said:


> No politics, just some humor. I can delete it if you want me to.


Not on my account. Politics has replaced late night TV for comedy. It used to be boring.


----------



## SpaceBus

Grizzerbear said:


> That's when you make banana bread


Can't go into the apocalypse without delicious treats. I stocked up on my baking supplies and meats today.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

This is getting REAL!


----------



## SpaceBus

On the bright side nobody here has panicked yet, but community events have been cancelled. The university shut down, schools are closed, but everyone is in good spirits. The local non-municipal library is staying open, but they all think Mainers are invincible to illness, which maybe they are, I don't know. I think folks that stay active will keep fluid from accumulating in their lungs, like with any respiratory infection.


----------



## begreen

semipro said:


> Wouldn't you?


Time to consider the alternatives. This chart will help guide you.


----------



## semipro

begreen said:


> Time to consider the alternatives. This chart will help guide you.
> 
> View attachment 258189


Sadly, the historical mainstay, the Sears catalog, is no longer an option I guess.
Those that once used catalog paper are known to work it between their hands to soften it a bit.

I'd hate to be born in March!
August is not much better but I've seen my dogs do it enough to know how.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

SpaceBus said:


> On the bright side nobody here has panicked yet,


Give em time......


----------



## begreen

I am baffled and dismayed by the measures taken nationally so far. Where are they getting their advice from? Shutting down flights is too little too late. The wolves are already in the sheep pen. The testing kits for rapid response that just got contracted will take 6-12 weeks to come on line. That is too late. Meanwhile, WHO testing kits are available for purchase now. This is how S. Korea has stayed ahead of the curve. There has been no mention of mobilizing the national guard and military for areas with greater than 10,000 estimated community spread cases. They are equipped to set up mobile hospital units. This is going to be necessary shortly in key areas because of our delayed repsonse and lack of testing kits. Failure to get this going now will put us in a situation like Italy is dealing within certain areas by end of April at the latest. It's simple a matter of math.

One thing that is confusing people is the mortality rate. The stats are varying wildly. This is a really good study about why these rates vary so much and how to take govt. stats with a large dose of salt.








						Coronavirus is coming for you. Act now
					

With the threat of coronavirus looming overhead, it's important to stay informed. Here's what you must know and do avoid it.




					www.newslaundry.com


----------



## begreen

semipro said:


> Sadly, the historical mainstay, the Sears catalog, is no longer an option I guess.
> Those that once used catalog paper are known to work it between their hands to soften it a bit.
> 
> I'd hate to be born in March!
> August is not much better but I've seen my dogs do it enough to know how.


I recommend subscribing to the Sunday NY Times. Or get a bidet. 
August doesn't sound like a lot of fun either.  Out here in August the grass has all gone brown and dormant.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

We have two bidets in the house. No subscription on the NYT, that might be too political.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

begreen said:


> I am baffled and dismayed by the measures taken nationally so far.


Taken from news reports.
"There are several factors contributing to the apparent shortage of coronavirus test kits in the U.S. One such factor is that many private labs still aren’t allowed to conduct their own coronavirus tests, partially because of a lengthy government approval process, NBC says. Prior to Feb. 29, the CDC was the only place approved by the FDA to make and process tests.
Mark Birenbaum, administrator of the National Independent Laboratory Association, told the news network, “Our labs want to do the testing — the testing is needed. But we’ve been waiting to get the OK to either create the tests or buy them from test kit manufacturers. It will still take time.”
Seems like they need to eliminate some red tape and bureaucracy  pronto.


----------



## begreen

Seasoned Oak said:


> Cant imagine what they are doing with all the bananas,they rot pretty fast.


Proof positive that America has gone bananas.


----------



## semipro

begreen said:


> I recommend subscribing to the Sunday NY Times. Or get a bidet.


This event has actually led us to consider getting a new toilet seat with a bidet function like the Toto Washlet.


----------



## begreen

Seasoned Oak said:


> Taken from news reports.
> "There are several factors contributing to the apparent shortage of coronavirus test kits in the U.S. One such factor is that many private labs still aren’t allowed to conduct their own coronavirus tests, partially because of a lengthy government approval process, NBC says. Prior to Feb. 29, the CDC was the only place approved by the FDA to make and process tests.
> Mark Birenbaum, administrator of the National Independent Laboratory Association, told the news network, “Our labs want to do the testing — the testing is needed. But we’ve been waiting to get the OK to either create the tests or buy them from test kit manufacturers. It will still take time.”
> Seems like they need to eliminate some red tape and bureaucracy  pronto.


Finally, we are contracting outside labs. Still this is going to take some precious time to ramp up. Meanwhile, community spread continues the doubling.








						U.S. Coronavirus Testing Gets A Potential Breakthrough
					

U.S. public health experts say they're "flying blind" because they need much more testing to know how widespread the outbreak is. But a just-approved test could be a game-changer.




					www.npr.org
				




Mina says it's striking just how unprepared the U.S. has turned out to be to face an outbreak like this. He thinks much will be learned from it. But with so much at stake, he says, "I just wish that we had really begun to take this problem seriously as a country two months ago versus really focusing on it just within the last couple of weeks."

Just two weeks ago the nation's largest cable tv "news" outlet and the head of the country were calling it a hoax.


----------



## webfish

Heard the head of testing labs  from Mayo clininc today. FDA red tape has been lowered so they finally got theirs done.  He also said there was big delay because China never lets their samples out of the country . So Mayo couldnt help in figuring it out.  Mayo does over 25 million tests a year and many, many come from outside the US but no China.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

[QUOTE="]
Just two weeks ago the nation's largest cable tv "news" outlet and the head of the country were calling it a hoax.
[/QUOTE]
There some good old fashioned CNN spin. They called the way the liberals were spinning it a hoax not the virus. Joe biden said that too and got 4 Pinocchios for it


----------



## Ashful

Most professional people I cross in my line of work here still claim to believe it’s just media hype, and compare it to past false alarms of swine flu, and the like.  Meanwhile, despite denial of any concern, someone is secretly clearing our store shelves.

  I had to stop at Walmart for a prescription and paper towels,  cause we just happened to be out of paper towels, not because we’re preparing for the apocalypse. This was the paper towel aisle:





The soap aisle was worse, damn near tipped the shelving units over!


----------



## bholler

Seasoned Oak said:


> Just two weeks ago the nation's largest cable tv "news" outlet and the head of the country were calling it a hoax.
> There some good old fashioned CNN spin. They called the way the liberals were spinning it a hoax not the virus. Joe biden said that too and got 4 Pinocchios for it


Yes they were calling the concern a hoax and saying it was no more serious than the flu.  This was parroted by someone else as well who should have instead been preparing.  Now that news source has changed their tune.


----------



## begreen

Seasoned Oak said:


> Seems like they need to eliminate some red tape and bureaucracy pronto.


Agreed. Inslee helped push to get the UW labs testing which has helped. But the country needs to ramp up asap. Today they finally brought on an outside lab, Roche, which will help once they get ramped up,  but this should have happened at least a month ago.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

_Michael Osterholm_ is on the news every night and hes really ringing the alarm bells. Someone like Osterholm should be running the response team. Or at least a part of it.


----------



## AlbergSteve

semipro said:


> I'd hate to be born in March!


Spent six months in Africa, that's what most of the continent uses.


----------



## CaptSpiff

begreen said:


> ...But the country needs to ramp up asap. Today they finally brought on an outside lab, Roche, which will help once they get ramped up,  but this should have happened at least a month ago.



I recall the the bureaucracy responding (I use that term loosely) during the Swine Flu "pandemic". No real change this time.

The CDC and FDA's attitude toward outside (private and edu) testing labs reminds me of NASA's attitude to SpaceX. 
When SpaceX came to NASA and proposed to use their launch pads for takeoff and relanding future rocket boosters, NASA told SpaceX to "Getta away from here kid, you're liable to break something". The idea of using the remaining propellant to navigate the boosters back to their launch point was so Buck Rogers to the established bureaucratic rocket scientists that it was a non-starter. Luckily NASA didn't control the seas, so SpaceX adjusted and landed the boosters on a floating and rocking barge in the ocean. Take that NASA!

Too bad CDC and FDA's controls are much deeper entrenched. And thank you to the Washington State professor who went and tested the samples anyway after being told not to!


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Parking lot tests will have a 24 hour turnaround , companies currently working on a test that would give a result in 1 Hr.


----------



## semipro

CaptSpiff said:


> The CDC and FDA's attitude toward outside (private and edu) testing labs reminds me of NASA's attitude to SpaceX.
> When SpaceX came to NASA and proposed to use their launch pads for takeoff and relanding future rocket boosters, NASA told SpaceX to "Getta away from here kid, you're liable to break something".


They had the same attitude when one of their young engineers proposed multi-stage rockets as a means to reach the moon during the Apollo project.


----------



## begreen

AlbergSteve said:


> Spent six months in Africa, that's what most of the continent uses.


Saw it in India too, right outside my 7th story office window in the neighboring field.


----------



## Sodbuster

Whether it's Influenza or Covid-19, there is no cure, only supportive care to treat the symptoms, and let the body heal.  Obviously older people and those that have a compromised immune system are at greater risk.   The only difference that I can see is that Covid -19, is much more contagious, and can remain viable both in the air and on surfaces longer than Influenza.


----------



## MTY

Some of you may joke about the outhouse and the Sears catalog, but I have lived it.  And yes, scrunching it up a bit reduces the gloss and the smearing effect. 
While vacationing with Uncle Sam, I rented a mud hut with a thatched roof and an outhouse out front.  $5 per month covered rent and maid service.  The outhouse was not as nice as the one we had when I was a kid. 
The biggest problem with catalogs is they will ruin a septic system, same with paper towels.  Food is delivered here.


----------



## Sawset

begreen said:


> Saw it in India too, right outside my 7th story office window in the neighboring field.


My daughter was in India 7yrs ago. On a mission trip to help build - an outhouse. One concrete bunker add on for a family that needed it. Pit type, no seat, and only water to clean up.


----------



## begreen

Sodbuster said:


> Whether it's Influenza or Covid-19, there is no cure, only supportive care to treat the symptoms, and let the body heal.  Obviously older people and those that have a compromised immune system are at greater risk.   The only difference that I can see is that Covid -19, is much more contagious, and can remain viable both in the air and on surfaces longer than Influenza.


It's not that much more contagious, but it is 20-30x more deadly. And recent testing shows that it can remain in the lungs for 37 days or more after symptoms disappear. This means people are carriers for much longer than the 14 day quarantine period.


----------



## semipro

MTY said:


> Some of you may joke about the outhouse and the Sears catalog,


I wasn't joking, only relating. 
I count myself among the lucky who have used outhouses and toilet paper alternatives -- enough so to truly appreciate modern conveniences such as flush toilets and hot showers.  

I do find it amusing that so many seem to hoard (and apparently fight over) the TP first.  You can survive a long time without TP; not so without potable water.


----------



## johneh

Question  Why TP 
Or are they all full of sh^^


----------



## SpaceBus

The best way to go without TP is to squat, there is less cleanup, but still something remains. After living without a functional toilet for two years, you get creative. We made a simple composting toilet and started a compost pit and I prefer it to the regular toilet I'm sitting on now. When we remodel the bathroom it will probably get a bidet and a stool or something to facilitate squatting over the toilet. When I was in Afghanistan the local nationals used the toilet seat as a "perch" to squat over the toilets when on American compounds. I wish my wife would go for the Italian style public toilet that is little more than a flushable porcelain hole in the floor, but it's a bit too austere for her.


----------



## Ashful

semipro said:


> They had the same attitude when one of their young engineers proposed multi-stage rockets as a means to reach the moon during the Apollo project.


This is technically only partly true, but good recall!


----------



## Ashful

johneh said:


> Question  Why TP
> Or are they all full of sh^^


The entire world lived without TP for five to seven million years, before our ancestors here in Philadelphia popularized it a scant 100 years ago.  We’ll be fine, people can get creative.  The only thing that may suffer from it is the sewer system, depending on people’s product choices.

... and yes, I know there were several independent inventions of toilet paper from 1850 onward, and a few even going back to ancient times, but it took the manufacturing horsepower of the Philadelphia paper mills to eventually put it in every home, at an affordable price.


----------



## PaulOinMA

On FDA-bashing.  FDA is not a barrier to addressing the problem in situations like this.

For more information:

_FDA's Creative Application of the Law: Not Merely a Collection of Words_ by Fred H. Degnan.

and

_When Lightning Strikes.  A How-To Crisis manual With Classic Case Studies_.  Wayne L. Pines, Editor.

I know Wayne.

I was considering several jobs in 1990 when I was leaving Hoechst-Roussel Pharmaceuticals.  I went to Colgate-Palmolive, in part because it was an opportunity to work with Craig E. Hammes, J.D. who was at J&J at the time of the Tylenol cyanide poisonings in the 1980s.


----------



## semipro

Ashful said:


> This is technically only partly true, but good recall!


I'd like to know more about this if you have a reference or just additional info.
My recall is sketchy and probably based on some PBS TV show (maybe NOVA) some years ago.
If you'd rather not diverge here a PM would be great.


----------



## PaulOinMA

begreen said:


> … Saw it in India too, right outside my 7th story office window in the neighboring field …



A colleague at CL went to India in the  mid-1990s.  He was our statistician and went  to teach a course at the Indian regulatory agency.

Looked out at the large field adjacent to the hotel in the morning.  It was full of people squatting down.  He had no idea what they were doing, and had to ask.


----------



## Grizzerbear

SpaceBus said:


> Can't go into the apocalypse without delicious treats. I stocked up on my baking supplies and meats today.


My wife did as well. We had plenty of meats but we needed to stock up on canned goods and such. The stores here look much like everywhere else....hard to get hand soaps and tp....luckily my wife already had a stockpile.



begreen said:


> Time to consider the alternatives


 What the hell is a football scarf.....I'm screwed lol.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

SpaceBus said:


> . After living without a functional toilet for two years, you get creative.


The trend i see now is not TP  but Baby Wipes.  Some families use these exclusively. No TP at all. We buy em by the case partly because we have a 2 yr old several days a week and everyone in the house use them to some extent. NO problem getting those yet , justgot a case delivered yesterday.  We also get our TP by the 45 roll case at Sams . Sometimes 2 at  time,daughter has allergies and uses it like kleenex.


SpaceBus said:


> . We made a simple composting toilet and started a compost pit and I prefer it to the regular toilet I'm sitting on now.


I use one of those sawdust bucket loos where i have no running water or septic system . Takes some getting used to but its a great alternative ,once used for remote concert with hundreds of people successfully.


----------



## Medic21

begreen said:


> It's not that much more contagious, but it is 20-30x more deadly. And recent testing shows that it can remain in the lungs for 37 days or more after symptoms disappear. This means people are carriers for much longer than the 14 day quarantine period.



One report, I would hardly call anything out of China a study right now, shows the viruses rNa is still present.  This is 100% inconclusive to as whether a pt is still contagious with it present.


----------



## peakbagger

Thread Derail, RE Baby Wipes and other wet wipes, in case others do not know, are a major issue with septic systems and plumbing in general. Within a few years I expect every house is going to end up with a macerator system required on the sewer outlet.

Now back to the gloom and doom.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Medic21 said:


> One report, I would hardly call anything out of China a study right now, shows the viruses rNa is still present.  This is 100% inconclusive to as whether a pt is still contagious with it present.


Could err on the side of caution with the quarantine timeframe but hard to know how to take info from china ,who has recently stated publically they would like to see the us "Drown in a sea of Corona virus" . Does this sound  like a country that wants to help with the devastation they caused on a global scale. Sounds more like they relish in the idea of our suffering.  Makes you wonder ,was any of this planned?


----------



## blades

planned no but the rules on wild game being farmed for sale and the open wet markets is what has been driving the virus outbreaks.  I am not going to type a whole senario out so look it up.


----------



## SpaceBus

peakbagger said:


> Thread Derail, RE Baby Wipes and other wet wipes in case others do not know are a major issue with septic systems and plumbing in general. Within a few years I expect every house is going to end up with a macerator system required on the sewer outlet.
> 
> Now back to the gloom and doom.


On this off topic tangent, we don't flush baby wipes, we put them in the trash, which is probably wasteful. We could probably compost them now that I'm thinking about it. Toilet paper of any brand feels like sandpaper to me now after using wipes for several years. I'll never go back!


----------



## SpaceBus

Grizzerbear said:


> My wife did as well. We had plenty of meats but we needed to stock up on canned goods and such. The stores here look much like everywhere else....hard to get hand soaps and tp....luckily my wife already had a stockpile.
> 
> 
> What the hell is a football scarf.....I'm screwed lol.


I think we could eek out two months of food with what we have on hand now, but I'd rather be able to get my usual weekly produce.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

blades said:


> planned no but the rules on wild game being farmed for sale and the open wet markets is what has been driving the virus outbreaks.


Thats the perfect cover story. You can bet the generals who do war game scenarios are looking closely at this. Flights going out had to be shut down from outside ,they should have done that ,unless they wanted it to spread.


----------



## black smoke signals

This was my approach to T/P after seeing T/P on Craigslist someone posting willing to trade 18 rolls of T/P for a car. We have no T/P in our homes https://washlet.totousa.com/product/S550e-Modern


----------



## Seasoned Oak

SpaceBus said:


> On this off topic tangent,


All part of disaster preparedness.


----------



## PaulOinMA

SpaceBus said:


> … I think we could eek out two months of food with what we have on hand now, but I'd rather be able to get my usual weekly produce.



Same here. 

My issue is that I do a Carnation Breakfast Shake for breakfast most days.  My wife does hot cocoa.  Need milk.

Lunch just about every day is salad, yogurt, fruit, cheese.


----------



## SpaceBus

PaulOinMA said:


> Same here.
> 
> My issue is that I do a Carnation Breakfast Shake for breakfast most days.  My wife does hot cocoa.  Need milk.
> 
> Lunch just about every day is salad, yogurt, fruit, cheese.


We do a lot of yogurt and vegetables. I think my dogs eat more meat than we do now.


----------



## Sodbuster

begreen said:


> It's not that much more contagious, but it is 20-30x more deadly. And recent testing shows that it can remain in the lungs for 37 days or more after symptoms disappear. This means people are carriers for much longer than the 14 day quarantine period.



Begreen, as I said I have family in health care in fact my daughter works in a Pediatric ICU and will be working with children sick with this virus. They've already implemented very stringent protocols for double gloving and double gowning, and then another protocol for removing those items. Another problem they are running into is a shortage of ICU containment suites, and this is at one of the largest if not the largest hospital in Michigan. They are working around the clock to add more.  My wife in a Nurse Anesthetist, so will probably not be exposed at the same level as my daughter, but has had a surgery that left her with a diminished capacity to clear secretions. Her immune system is fine. I would be very interested in showing her the link or links where you got that information from.   Thanks in advance!


----------



## Sodbuster

peakbagger said:


> Thread Derail, RE Baby Wipes and other wet wipes in case others do not know are a major issue with septic systems and plumbing in general. Within a few years I expect every house is going to end up with a macerator system required on the sewer outlet.
> 
> Now back to the gloom and doom.



I just read in the news, where baby wipes caused a huge clog in Philadelphia's sewer system (don't quote me on the city), and was quite expensive and time consuming to fix. Flushable wipes are really bad for your septic system.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Sodbuster said:


> I just read in the news, where baby wipes caused a huge clog in Philadelphia's sewer system (don't quote me on the city), and was quite expensive and time consuming to fix.


Depends on the city. Out local Plants debris catchment system handle these along with all the other debris and landfills it. Some cities cant seem to so anything right including potable water that safe for the public.  Wipes are not going away so they had better learn how to deal with them. Its not rocket science.


----------



## PaulOinMA

Off topic: Remember the Fat Berg in the London sewer a few years ago.  Major yuk!


----------



## mcdougy

I'm thinking the focus on the numbers by the general public is a bad approach/focus. It's creating the panic. The hoarding of t.p. Is a strange behaviour by the general public in North America as well. All it is showing is that people are very uncertain as to what to do and what is going to happen.  These behaviors are ok as they are in fact correct and not really a burden on society. The real situation that has to be controlled is mass overload of the health system. The message that needs to be followed is that it's ok to be concerned, it's ok to be prepared, it's ok to try and point blame, it's ok to feel uncertain, it's ok to want toilet paper, but we all need to show some form of restraint to reduce chaos within the hospital. Our biggest realization of the public is that we have to take the fact that no one really knows what will happen or is happening, and that is a fact. The worst situation would be a movement of everyone wanting to be tested to see if they have it. Knowing will not change anything, besides possibly create the chaos. We need to accept that if/when you start to feel ill, the best management is to try and ride it out. The experience so far is leading to the fact you will be ok. Your judgement is required to assess when the situation is worsening to the point your life is on the line. There's no blood, but it's the same common sense situation of any injury, illness. Wether it's 10, 30, 80, %2 is no difference. Wether  your likely or unlikely to get it is the situation unfolding. No one knows, but  how will you react. The population must not resort to chaos. We have doctor's, equipment, service providers, toilet paper, bananas, that should be enough to get thru anything if we can stay as level headed as possible. Stay calm is my personal message to everyone. This is a coping experience of the masses. I'm in full understanding that it's not easy currently, nor looking better in the horizon, but accepting the fact that we must do our own personal part to stay calm is the key. We all know it, let's do it.
Sorry if I'm ranting, but I think we must start to focus on restoring calm if we have accepted that we have a problem. Triage skills required.


----------



## blades

you are correct in health care overload,  i have been in ER units just swamped by everyday problems ( me-life  threatening condition) most are there because it is provided free to certain levels of the populace as mandated by the organizations tax fee status ( always cost me a significant amount and in no way am i well heeled)


----------



## Grizzerbear

peakbagger said:


> Thread Derail, RE Baby Wipes and other wet wipes in case others do not know are a major issue with septic systems and plumbing in general. Within a few years I expect every house is going to end up with a macerator system required on the sewer outlet.
> 
> Now back to the gloom and doom.



Our sewer department has what's called a bar screen that catches the lions share of all trash that is flushed. It catches it and a auger drives it out to a compactor and spits it out into a waste can. Of course some fine debris makes it through but it catches a lot of it. The big problem is old clay and transite lines that crack easily and tree roots infiltrate and then these wipes, diapers, ramen noodle packages you name it.....get caught and compound the problem. I work for a water and street department in my town but we help the sewer department often and we see this a lot.


----------



## blades

Seasoned Oak said:


> Thats the perfect cover story. You can bet the generals who do war game scenarios are looking closely at this. Flights going out had to be shut down from outside ,they should have done that ,unless they wanted it to spread.


Possibly, but I do not subscribe to that outfield theory.  The history of the wet market is something you really should research, dates back to a famine stituation in China not all that long ago.   China is not the only place of wet markets-by their very nature they are a breeding ground for trouble,health wise- and then there is the marketing ploys as well compounding the underlying issues.


----------



## begreen

Sodbuster said:


> Begreen, as I said I have family in health care in fact my daughter works in a Pediatric ICU and will be working with children sick with this virus. They've already implemented very stringent protocols for double gloving and double gowning, and then another protocol for removing those items. Another problem they are running into is a shortage of ICU containment suites, and this is at one of the largest if not the largest hospital in Michigan. They are working around the clock to add more.  My wife in a Nurse Anesthetist, so will probably not be exposed at the same level as my daughter, but has had a surgery that left her with a diminished capacity to clear secretions. Her immune system is fine. I would be very interested in showing her the link or links where you got that information from.   Thanks in advance!


Please thank her and your family for the work they do. It is so important.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

blades said:


> Possibly, but I do not subscribe to that outfield theory.  The history of the wet market is something you really should research, dates back to a famine stituation in China not all that long ago.


That was not my first thought ,but their strange response is what makes me question motives. That coupled with now even denying it came from china at all ,plus now going as far as to be blaming the US military is really bizarre.


----------



## begreen

Seasoned Oak said:


> That was not my first thought ,but their strange response is what makes me question motives. That coupled with now even denying it came from china at all ,plus now going as far as to be blaming the US military is really bizarre.


One should not confuse a dis-information and conspiracy war with the real medical war that is happening. There is good science coming out from China to other countries in spite of the friction barrier that has been raised here. Just yesterday it was reported that a research team in China has been studying cases after recovery. They found that surprisingly the Covid-19 virus was still alive in the upper respiratory tracts of some people 37 days after recovery! This is important information. We have a lot to learn still. Hostile rhetoric and disinformation help no one.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

begreen said:


> . Hostile rhetoric and disinformation help no one.


Your right,this information and hostile rhetoric came from a chinese newspaper ,and yes i did read they are just now starting to cooperate after the horse has left the barn.








						Chinese official blames coronavirus outbreak on US military
					

A Chinese government spokesman has tried to blame the US army for the deadly coronavirus outbreak, which was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization this week. Chinese Foreign Ministry…




					nypost.com


----------



## begreen

Seasoned Oak said:


> Your right,this information and hostile rhetoric came from a chinese newspaper ,and yes i did read they are just now starting to cooperate after the horse has left the barn.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chinese official blames coronavirus outbreak on US military
> 
> 
> A Chinese government spokesman has tried to blame the US army for the deadly coronavirus outbreak, which was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization this week. Chinese Foreign Ministry…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nypost.com


Sounds like their equivalent of our politicos.  It's rhetoric. They have pride too and don't like to lose face.


----------



## paulnlee

Boy was Orwell right


----------



## Highbeam

Grizzerbear said:


> Our sewer department has what's called a bar screen that catches the lions share of all trash that is flushed. It catches it and a auger drives it out to a compactor and spits it out into a waste can. Of course some fine debris makes it through but it catches a lot of it. The big problem is old clay and transite lines that crack easily and tree roots infiltrate and then these wipes, diapers, ramen noodle packages you name it.....get caught and compound the problem. I work for a water and street department in my town but we help the sewer department often and we see this a lot.



My city has many lift stations that pump sewage towards the treatment plant. Sure, we have a screen at the plant that collects all kinds of interesting stuff but the problem with “flushable” wipes is that they wind around the shafts of the pumps at the lift stations and stop them. Constant maintenance.

Cutting up old clothes, sheets, or using other paper products is fine but just don’t flush them. Garbage can.


----------



## Sodbuster

I'll dip my toe into the water here, and just say that some of the most valuable information on the virus could be coming from China and Italy which was hit extremely hard. I do not believe any information coming out of China, as they have a poor record on almost every front, whether it's intellectual property rights, human rights, and complete government control of what news leaves China. Italy on the other hand has been very  helpful and I found this Dr. to be very frank and on the mark, as someone who it dealing with this daily.


----------



## Medic21

Sodbuster said:


> Begreen, as I said I have family in health care in fact my daughter works in a Pediatric ICU and will be working with children sick with this virus. They've already implemented very stringent protocols for double gloving and double gowning, and then another protocol for removing those items. Another problem they are running into is a shortage of ICU containment suites, and this is at one of the largest if not the largest hospital in Michigan. They are working around the clock to add more.  My wife in a Nurse Anesthetist, so will probably not be exposed at the same level as my daughter, but has had a surgery that left her with a diminished capacity to clear secretions. Her immune system is fine. I would be very interested in showing her the link or links where you got that information from.   Thanks in advance!


So why are they double gloving and double gowning which are both directly against CDC recommendations.  This is droplet protections.  The requirements for that are only a mask on the pt if they tolerate it then gown and gloves.  The provider may wear a mask but, until it is aerosolized through high flow oxygen or intubation there is no need for a hepa mask.

We have ceased field intubation of pt that we suspect.  You wife is very much at risk unless All ever uses is video To intubate.


----------



## peakbagger

Highbeam said:


> My city has many lift stations that pump sewage towards the treatment plant. Sure, we have a screen at the plant that collects all kinds of interesting stuff but the problem with “flushable” wipes is that they wind around the shafts of the pumps at the lift stations and stop them. Constant maintenance.
> 
> Cutting up old clothes, sheets, or using other paper products is fine but just don’t flush them. Garbage can.



Look up a Muffin Monster and Channel Monster they work quite well for rags, strings and other items that should not be in the sewers to be being with. I used use them for industrial purposes.


----------



## Sodbuster

Medic21 said:


> So why are they double gloving and double gowning which are both directly against CDC recommendations.  This is droplet protections.  The requirements for that are only a mask on the pt if they tolerate it then gown and gloves.  The provider may wear a mask but, until it is aerosolized through high flow oxygen or intubation there is no need for a hepa mask.
> 
> We have ceased field intubation of pt that we suspect.  You wife is very much at risk unless All ever uses is video To intubate.



They use that protocol during intubation and that's when they use a video largynoscope .


----------



## semipro

I can't help but believe that reports of sewer/septic problems from wipes stem from the use of the non-flushable biodegradable type which I think are synthetic, basically plastic. 
We've been using the biodegradable type at our house on septic for 20 years without issue. I've watched the septic tank be pumped twice and the tech never mentioned any issues with wipes.  It was clear from the content that whatever we were flushing was breaking down.

Maybe some that claim to be flushable aren't really biodegradable.


----------



## Grizzerbear

Highbeam said:


> My city has many lift stations that pump sewage towards the treatment plant. Sure, we have a screen at the plant that collects all kinds of interesting stuff but the problem with “flushable” wipes is that they wind around the shafts of the pumps at the lift stations and stop them. Constant maintenance.
> 
> Cutting up old clothes, sheets, or using other paper products is fine but just don’t flush them. Garbage can.



I hear ya. If the auger breaks down on ours it is a heck of a mess...and does happen. I wasnt implying to not worry about it and flush whatever your heart desires. I was just stating that most times blockages that I have seen start where there is a problem in the pipe already. Old infrastructure. Obviously flushing wipes that won't dissolve multiplies the problem.


----------



## Medic21

begreen said:


> The death rate is about the same as the Spanish Flu so there is reason for concern. It's very contagious, but at least it is nothing like Ebola which was 50%! Thank goodness we reacted quickly then. The main concern is that politics will get in the way of quickly protecting Americans. This already appears to be happening. We need the CDC firing on all cylinders right now.


Until everyone is being tested on a daily frequency we will never know the true death rate. Here the only people being tested, as with most areas, are those that need hospital admission and meet the CDCs requirement for testing.  If they test positive, no one they have been in contact is being tested at this time.  There would be a possibility of an additional 2-3 at a minimum if the tested person was the original carrier for the cluster of infections.  If not they were one they was infected by one of the 2-3 that was infected by the original carrier. 

See the problem with trying to have any numbers?  I confidently, based on my experience of providing medical care in different third world countries, expect that the infection number is exponentially higher and death rate considerably lower.


----------



## woodey

The 18 school districts in our County have decided to close schools immediately until at least April 20th.


----------



## maple1

semipro said:


> I can't help but believe that reports of sewer/septic problems from wipes stem from the use of the non-flushable biodegradable type which I think are synthetic, basically plastic.
> We've been using the biodegradable type at our house on septic for 20 years without issue. I've watched the septic tank be pumped twice and the tech never mentioned any issues with wipes.  It was clear from the content that whatever we were flushing was breaking down.
> 
> Maybe some that claim to be flushable aren't really biodegradable.



Nope.

We raised 3 kids in this house from when it was new in 1996. Moved in when our oldest turned 1. Used wipes with all three, and I made sure the only ones that came here from the store were the 'right' ones. Got our tank pumped 5 years ago, there was a layer of the damned things all over the bottom that all looked like the day they were flushed. The pumper guy told me they just don't degrade and he sees it all the time. So unless they have somehow gotten better at making them degrade since we stopped using them, they just don't.


----------



## begreen

Sodbuster said:


> I'll dip my toe into the water here, and just say that some of the most valuable information on the virus could be coming from China and Italy which was hit extremely hard. I do not believe any information coming out of China, as they have a poor record on almost every front, whether it's intellectual property rights, human rights, and complete government control of what news leaves China. Italy on the other hand has been very  helpful and I found this Dr. to be very frank and on the mark, as someone who it dealing with this daily.



More on Italy's front line








						'Not a wave, a tsunami.' Italy hospitals at virus limit
					

Every day is a scramble to find more intensive care beds than the critically ill who need them. There still aren't enough protective masks to go around.




					www.pbs.org


----------



## Sodbuster

woodey said:


> The 18 school districts in our County have decided to close schools immediately until at least April 20th.



Our Governor closed every school in the state (Michigan) for 3 weeks and banned any gathering of 250 or more, which means most churches will be closed tomorrow. I'm not sure she has the authority to ban gatherings over 250 persons, but given the circumstances it is probably a wise choice.


----------



## webfish

I saw these tweets. More sobering stuff.









						Ex-Obama official warns US health system faces 'tsunami' over coronavirus
					

Andy Slavitt, formerly Medicare and Medicaid administrator, tweets outline of threat after ‘Trump’s months-long denial’




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## begreen

Sodbuster said:


> Our Governor closed every school in the state (Michigan) for 3 weeks and banned any gathering of 250 or more, which means most churches will be closed tomorrow. I'm not sure she has the authority to ban gatherings over 250 persons, but given the circumstances it is probably a wise choice.


Our governor made the same decision. It's necessary to reduce overload on the hospital system. This is a recent episode on local radio station about the Seattle frontline on the importance of flattening the curve.








						Episode 1: Flattening the Curve
					

When the novel coronavirus made its way to American shores, it landed right here in the Pacific Northwest. Now, the Seattle area is the epicenter of America’s COVID-19 outbreak.




					www.knkx.org


----------



## MTY

SpaceBus said:


> The best way to go without TP is to squat, there is less cleanup, but still something remains. After living without a functional toilet for two years, you get creative. We made a simple composting toilet and started a compost pit and I prefer it to the regular toilet I'm sitting on now. When we remodel the bathroom it will probably get a bidet and a stool or something to facilitate squatting over the toilet. When I was in Afghanistan the local nationals used the toilet seat as a "perch" to squat over the toilets when on American compounds. I wish my wife would go for the Italian style public toilet that is little more than a flushable porcelain hole in the floor, but it's a bit too austere for her.
> [/QU
> I rented an apartment in China.  It had a tiled shower room.  The drain for the shower was also the toilet.  You did not want to drop the soap.  It would easily shoot down the hole.  After using the washing machine, you threw the drain hose on the floor and it went down the toilet hole.
> One village I was in had a mud hut community outhouse.  When you entered, a little old man would run around the back of the building and put what looked like a bread pan under the hole.  When you finished, he would run out and dump it on the crops.  You went nowhere without packing your own TP.
> TP in Korea in the early 70's resembled our crepe paper.  Any TP not under lock and key was pirated.  The natives would also use the seat as a perch, and we had a heck of a time keeping them from doing their laundry in the crapper.
> We are spoiled.  If you take a regular spade and cut the handle off about two feet long,  stuck in the ground beside you it makes a great TP holder.  If you are discrete, your neighbors may think you are planting flowers.


----------



## begreen

A cautionary tale of what happens when we don't flatten the curve.








						A coronavirus cautionary tale from Italy: Don’t do what we did - The Boston Globe
					

Many of us were too selfish to follow suggestions to change our behavior. Now we’re in lockdown and people are needlessly dying.




					www.bostonglobe.com


----------



## PaulOinMA

There was a woman on CNN last night with a UAB backdrop.

The question, paraphrasing: "The supermarket is out of alcohol sanitizers.  Can I use a plant-based product?"

She actually said something like "FDA really has nothing to do with products like these" in her reply.

Really?  FDA has responsibility for AB washes, surgical scrubs, etc.  I was working on it in the 1990s.  EPA has responsibility for hard-surface products.  We had those, too.


----------



## Ashful

Sawset said:


> My daughter was in India 7yrs ago. On a mission trip to help build - an outhouse. One concrete bunker add on for a family that needed it. Pit type, no seat, and only water to clean up.


This was a good movie, and gave some insight into that issue, and other poverty and toilet-related issues in India:








						Outsourced (film) - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				





semipro said:


> I'd like to know more about this if you have a reference or just additional info.
> My recall is sketchy and probably based on some PBS TV show (maybe NOVA) some years ago.
> If you'd rather not diverge here a PM would be great.


Got a project due for work this weekend, so I'll get back to you on this, after I've had a chance to review.  But I believe you were substituting multistage rocket theory, which was already well-proven and being used by the Russians (in both parallel and sequential forms) in the 1960's, with the concept of space rendezvous as a plan for getting to the moon.  This rendezvous concept was indeed challenged for some time, and there became three separate camps of thought, as to the best plan for a moon shot.

On the multistage rocket concept, Russians started with a really cool multistage plan in the 1950's, where all stages would initially fire in parallel (hence the name, "parallel multistage"), but stages would drop off as they progressed away from the earth.  This was very efficient, but also more complicated and prone to fail.  They eventually dropped back to the simpler sequential multistage with which we're all familiar, which we also used in the US.


peakbagger said:


> Thread Derail, RE Baby Wipes and other wet wipes, in case others do not know, are a major issue with septic systems and plumbing in general. Within a few years I expect every house is going to end up with a macerator system required on the sewer outlet.


Before reading this thread, I would have never even considered that anyone would flush those things down a toilet!  We went thru the baby wipes years (with babies... not the adults), starting in a house with public sewer and then moving to a house with septic, but in both cases we threw those things into a lidded trash can!  The lid was mostly about keeping the dog out of them.  


Seasoned Oak said:


> Depends on the city. Out local Plants debris catchment system handle these along with all the other debris and landfills it. Some cities cant seem to so anything right including potable water that safe for the public.  Wipes are not going away so they had better learn how to deal with them. Its not rocket science.


True, but keep in mind the mentions above of Philadelphia and London, two of the oldest sewer systems in the world, and each of which handle more sewage per day than any smaller borough does in three or four months!  Both likely have many aged or antique components spanning ~150 sq.mi. each, serving easily 10 million people per day (6-8 million residents + commuters), both systems being over 200 years old.  Most of the largest towns in your "eastern central PA" are literally only 1/100th the population of these two massive old cities, and most haven't had sewer systems more than 60 years!


PaulOinMA said:


> Off topic: Remember the Fat Berg in the London sewer a few years ago.  Major yuk!


Yep.  For anyone who missed it:  https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo...rg-london-s-130-ton-rock-solid-sewer-blockage


mcdougy said:


> ...we all need to show some form of restraint to reduce chaos within the hospital.


One of the key points of many of the interviews I've seen, including (if I recall) the Rogan interview begreen posted two pages back, is that this is the primary concern and motive behind event closings.  Simply put, most of us are going to get this thing, and most of us will do fine with it.  Many may have already had it, and not even realized it was anything other than a regular cold or flu.  But for those who suffer more acutely from it and require hospital care, they are trying to avoid the same scenario we've all seen in Italy over the past ten days, in which so many people were infected so quickly that the hospitals are unable to handle the load.  By closing schools and events, they are not under any assumption this will stop the spread, they are only trying to slow it to a rate at which our healthcare system is not loaded to the breaking point.

Trump of course has other motives, protecting the economy.  Simply put, his re-election hinges on this one the economy doing well going into November.  It almost appears that he hoped that by pretending corona was not an issue, it might go away.  I guess for those who have lived thru the last dozen forecast "pandemics" that turned out to be non-events, with regard to the economy on a 6-month time scale, it was a calculated risk.  Once the market tanked as a reaction to what was happening, it forced his hand toward a reaction.  The rally on Friday, which I believe is an all-time record, was soothing for anyone who lost big money on Thursday.  But I'm sure there's plenty of volatility in our near future, hang on to your hat.


Medic21 said:


> So why are they double gloving and double gowning which are both directly against CDC recommendations.  This is droplet protections.  The requirements for that are only a mask on the pt if they tolerate it then gown and gloves.  The provider may wear a mask but, until it is aerosolized through high flow oxygen or intubation there is no need for a hepa mask.


I heard the same from one doctor, who prior to the interview was being touted as an expert of some kind in this field.  But then I heard conflicting statements from two others, all within the same week.  So those of us not in the industry, and apparently many who ARE in the industry, are left wondering.  Was one doc apparently wrong, and the others right, or is this just an issue of timing and new observations?


semipro said:


> We've been using the biodegradable type at our house on septic for 20 years without issue. I've watched the septic tank be pumped twice and the tech never mentioned any issues with wipes.  It was clear from the content that whatever we were flushing was breaking down.


...or they floated downstream into your field or mound, where they'll ruin your day sometime in the future?  I dunno, just thinking out load.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Ashful said:


> Those of you who think you’re going to be immune to this chaos need to watch the full length of the Rogan video that begreen posted above.  This same chaos is coming your way, it‘s only a matter of time.


Well it didnt take long to get here , our local wall mart had a good run yesterday when people woke up to the schools all shutting down for 2 weeks.  I was wondering why there was no urgency up until then ,i guess most people dont keep up on the news as well as most of us on hearth.  Plus the TP fights on facebook(where many get their news) probably
  jogged a few people to join the run on wal-mart.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Ashful said:


> True, but keep in mind the mentions above of Philadelphia and London, two of the oldest sewer systems in the world, and each of which handle more sewage per day than any smaller borough does in three or four months!


We just had a brand new system installed a few yrs ago so big you can see it from space mandated by the Fed Govt.  I would think philly is subject to the same law unless they opted for the easier route which is just keep paying the fines.


----------



## RFarm

Went off the grid in 2013 due to wanting to retire early (43).  I just got sick of corporate America and rabid consumerism.  Built my own house using timber frame and straw bales, put in a 4.5kwh PV system and heat with wood.  Got 20 chickens and a year round garden.  Taught myself to can, dehydrate, and salt foods.  The last couple of years I started a business and kind of started slacking on my homesteading.  Now back to it in force.  I can see how these times feel strange to most Americans.  It feels different for me I guess, feels like the early days of going off grid and realizing I am effectively poor and have to sustain myself.  I hope everyone has what they need and is ready to take care of others.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Once we get to the point where those who have recovered are taking care of people (as they should be immune at that point)we should be over the hump.  Some stories of people being reinfected but cant see how thats possible unless the virus has mutated.


----------



## Medic21

Ashful said:


> .
> 
> I heard the same from one doctor, who prior to the interview was being touted as an expert of some kind in this field.  But then I heard conflicting statements from two others, all within the same week.  So those of us not in the industry, and apparently many who ARE in the industry, are left wondering.  Was one doc apparently wrong, and the others right, or is this just an issue of timing



I think initially it was a “We have no real idea what we are dealing with” issue. We went from N95 masks to regular masks to masking pt and using your judgement. Being droplet precautions for most instances is much easier than airborne Transmission. With the ventilator, BVM, high flow oxygen there is a chance that the virus could be aerosolized so then it’s tim to take respiratory precautions.
The only benefit of double gloving or double gowning ever would be moving from pt to pt faster.  I have occasionally double gloved on accident scenes to triage and prevent cross contamination between pts.  An extra pair of gloves won’t help anything for me.


----------



## begreen

Virus screening at airports has suddenly created massive people jams because no one thought to increase personnel to handle the massive load of people suddenly returning from Europe. This is a danger of pronouncements without planning or thought about what is required to implement. Talk about incubators and crowds of over 250 people. Sheesh.








						US moves nearer to shutdown amid coronavirus fears
					

CHICAGO (AP) — Officials across the country curtailed many elements of American life to fight the coronavirus outbreak on Sunday, with health officials recommending that groups of 50 or more don't get together and a government expert saying a 14-day national shutdown may be needed...




					apnews.com
				




Meanwhile, the World Health Organization put travel bans and hopes of warmer temps into perspective








						WHO: Don't expect travel bans, 'Mother Nature' to beat virus
					

GENEVA (AP) — Countries may gain time in the short-term as they limit travel to fight the new coronavirus pandemic, but the World Health Organization thinks overall that “it doesn't help to restrict movement," a top adviser to the U.N. health agency's chief said Thursday.  Dr. Bruce Aylward, who...




					apnews.com
				




_“Many people ask, ‘Will this go away with the winter season?’” he said, noting that the epidemiological approach calls for locating and tracking the virus, and getting infected people out of circulation..
“I would not be betting on Mother Nature here,” Aylward said. “I would be betting on case-finding. Isolation (of patients). Contact tracing. Testing. Testing. Testing.”_


----------



## SpaceBus

RFarm said:


> Went off the grid in 2013 due to wanting to retire early (43).  I just got sick of corporate America and rabid consumerism.  Built my own house using timber frame and straw bales, put in a 4.5kwh PV system and heat with wood.  Got 20 chickens and a year round garden.  Taught myself to can, dehydrate, and salt foods.  The last couple of years I started a business and kind of started slacking on my homesteading.  Now back to it in force.  I can see how these times feel strange to most Americans.  It feels different for me I guess, feels like the early days of going off grid and realizing I am effectively poor and have to sustain myself.  I hope everyone has what they need and is ready to take care of others.


We are working towards the same here, just hope the market survives so we can get all of our infrastructure built/purchased.


----------



## begreen

SpaceBus said:


> We are working towards the same here, just hope the market survives so we can get all of our infrastructure built/purchased.


It will. There will be lessons learned, and maybe not at current peaks, but there will be a market.


----------



## Woody Stover

RFarm said:


> put in a 4.5kwh PV system and heat with wood.  Got 20 chickens and a year round garden.  Taught myself to can, dehydrate, and salt foods.


Do you have a way to make toilet tissue? My wife went to the store yesterday, and there were empty sections in every aisle. No TP left, and we're down to two rolls. Luckily, they are substantial two-ply rolls.  We have some nice, big Sycamore leaves in the woods, but they are getting a bit crusty now, since they've been lying there since last fall.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

Woody Stover said:


> Do you have a way to make toilet tissue? My wife went to the store yesterday, and there were empty sections in every aisle. No TP left, and we're down to two rolls. Luckily, they are substantial two-ply rolls.  We have some nice, big Sycamore leaves in the woods, but they are getting a bit crusty now, since they've been lying there since last fall.


Amazon product


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Wife ordered some TP among other things online from Walmart and had to pick it up at the store yesterday. Got a lot stares on the way out from people wondering where she found it as the store shelves have been bare for 2 days. Shes lucky to have made it out of the store unscathed.


----------



## SpaceBus

We are definitely installing a bidet when we renovate our bathroom.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

On a positive note 98 to 99% of us will survive this. Just 10% of those tested so far in the US have tested positive, which means many who think and their doctors think they have the virus actually do not have it (yet).


----------



## Ashful

Seasoned Oak said:


> Wife ordered some TP among other things online from Walmart and had to pick it up at the store yesterday. Got a lot stares on the way out from people wondering where she found it as the store shelves have been bare for 2 days. Shes lucky to have made it out of the store unscathed.


I had another customer at Walmart offer me a bottle of hand sanitizer for $50 on Friday evening.  I'm not kidding, although I think he was.


----------



## Sawset

Ashful said:


> I had another customer at Walmart offer me a bottle of hand sanitizer for $50 on Friday evening.  I'm not kidding, although I think he was.


Did he flash you with it from under his coat, look a little sketchy, shifty eyes, what else did he have in there, 1roll 20dolla, ?


----------



## peakbagger

Sawset said:


> Did he flash you with it from under his coat, look a little sketchy, shifty eyes, what else did he have in there, 1roll 20dolla, ?



Unfortunately the worst of society is going to try to profit on this event. Hopefully the best will win out.


----------



## Ashful

peakbagger said:


> Unfortunately the worst of society is going to try to profit on this event. Hopefully the best will win out.


I think he was alluding to the same.  Again, he had a grin on his face when he said it, I'm pretty sure he was joking.  Although the store was indeed out of the stuff, and I told him he might get someone to pay that price, just not me.


----------



## Medic21

Seasoned Oak said:


> On a positive note 98 to 99% of us will survive this. Just 10% of those tested so far in the US have tested positive, which means many who think and their doctors think they have the virus actually do not have it (yet).


Actually they very well could have it.  The testing requirements include travel outside the country, in contact with someone who traveled outside the country, both with symptoms.  If you have been in contact with a known positive person and show symptoms.  Other than that you will not be tested.  

The real survival rate will be no other medical issues, diagnosed or not, under 70 your gonna be fine.  Over 70 there is about a 75% fatal rate with underlying medical problems.  That drops to .01% under 70 with no problems.   The real numbers won’t be known for years if ever.  Too many people only have common cold symptoms, like I do tonight, and I transported a positive pt two days ago.  As long as I don’t get a fever I don’t have to worry about a self quarantine either.   I won’t be tested regardless.  So if I have it I’ll end up in the number that was never added.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Medic21 said:


> Over 70 there is about a 75% fatal rate with underlying medical problems.  That drops to .01% under 70 with no problems.   The real numbers won’t be known for years if ever.


The chart i saw had the over 80 population at 15% .  And the over 70 at 8% .  Does the underlying issues increase that to 75%


----------



## Seasoned Oak




----------



## milothecat

I don't post much on this forum, I do lurk quite a bit. My thoughts are that all we hear about are death rates or number of cases in a day. Nobody has talked about total population infected. By my math the worst hit countries China and Italy , have a total of about .04% of their population infected. I think that all of the measures being taken are necessary to contain the virus and make numbers drop. And I also don't think that this is something that we should ignore and hope goes away.  However I think that the media and social media are raising the level of panic to unnecessary levels.  I also don't know where the US and Canadian authorities are coming up with a total infected population of 30%-70%. I suppose that if nothing was done it could hit these levels, but measures seem to be being taken. I hope that things don't get out of control in the next couple of weeks. I know that if 1500 people showed up at the two or three hospitals with ICU's in my area it would be a disaster. However I think that the actual chance of being infected and requiring hospitalization is rather low. I believe all of the numbers are way off because not enough tests are being done and there is an exponential more number of unidentified cases. Thats just my thoughts on this so you can take it for what it's worth.


----------



## ABMax24

Today the province of Alberta cancelled all K-12 and post secondary school. That's 3.5 months early. Classes will not resume until September, students will be given their final grades based on current marks and moved on to the next year. Teachers will teach what they can online, but end of year exams have been cancelled. The only exception is grade 12 students, who will still write their Diploma exams so they can apply to college and university for the fall. Post secondary students will be taught by online classes.


----------



## Medic21

Seasoned Oak said:


> The chart i saw had the over 80 population at 15% .  And the over 70 at 8% .  Does the underlying issues increase that to 75%


I was looking at the total a few days ago.  This number changes almost daily.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Ashful said:


> I had another customer at Walmart offer me a bottle of hand sanitizer for $50 on Friday evening.  I'm not kidding, although I think he was.


My wife has cases of the stuff and bottles of medical alcohol ever since i know her.  Always thought she was over cautious ,kind of a germophobe.  Im just the opposite.  She gets sick more than me though.


----------



## begreen

This is playing it fast and loose with the numbers. The reported numbers of infection are only those that have been tested. The actual infected rate could easily be a magnitude or more higher. The number infected was clamped down in Wuhan by draconian measures to halt community spread. In Italy, they have a similar issue  (as does the US) with limited testing.








						Italy's virus fatality rate higher than China's | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News
					

Italy's proportion of fatalities to confirmed cases of the new coronavirus infection is now higher than that of China.




					www3.nhk.or.jp
				




I sincerely hope that in retrospect the damages done by this virus are less than anticipated. But remember that the Spanish Flu morphed over the summer and came back in fall with horrible vengeance.  Yes, the metrics are widely in error due to an abysmal lack of testing due to the administration's slavish insistence on only FDA/CDC approved testing. The actual numbers of this disease in the wild are magnitudes higher than delayed and partial testing indicate. This is relative to the same failures indicated in China and Italy.


----------



## begreen

Many states are closing down restaurants and bars temporarily now. Calif. is telling 65+ yr olds to stay in isolation.








						California governor calls for closure of all bars and wineries, home isolation of everyone 65 and older
					

California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Sunday called for all bars, wineries, nightclubs and brewpubs to close in the nation’s most populous state and urged seniors and people with chronic health con…




					ktla.com
				




Edit: Looks like WA and OR have joined them


----------



## MTY

At work I have to take driver's licenses on a regular basis.  Over 65 may be a good generalization, but I am literally stupefied by the horrible condition many individuals under that age are in.  On a regular basis I see people in their 40's who could easily pass for 65+.  I have people stand and look me right in the eye while complaining about the horrors of old age, when I have 20 years on them.  I think that while it might be politically incorrect, it would be more accurate to say, "If you are in lousy shape, stay home!"  
The big question may well be, "Were those excessive goodies worth hacking your lungs out?"


----------



## Seasoned Oak

begreen said:


> This is playing it fast and loose with the numbers. The reported numbers of infection are only those that have been tested. The actual infected rate could easily be a magnitude or more higher.


13000 test done so far and 90% are negative. How is it that so many showing symptoms tests are coming back negative.  7 States open up drive thru testing. Im getting over a very mild case of the regular flu(i think) right now which is good as i wouldnt want deal with both at once.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

MTY said:


> At work I have to take driver's licenses on a regular basis.  Over 65 may be a good generalization, but I am literally stupefied by the horrible condition many individuals under that age are in.  On a regular basis I see people in their 40's who could easily pass for 65+.  I have people stand and look me right in the eye while complaining about the horrors of old age, when I have 20 years on them.  I think that while it might be politically incorrect, it would be more accurate to say, "If you are in lousy shape, stay home!"
> The big question may well be, "Were those excessive goodies worth hacking your lungs out?"


I was thinking the EXACT same thing today. Were going to be in trouble when half of america is obese , with obesity related issues like diabetes even at a young age.


----------



## Medic21

Seasoned Oak said:


> 13000 test done so far and 90% are negative. How is it that so many showing symptoms tests are coming back negative.


Because it’s not the corona virus.  It’s a pt that has an illness, negative for flu, blood cultures usually pulled but no results and screened to be tested.  Could be a common cold and with a positive screening they get tested.  

I’ve said many times here and elsewhere.  Until they start testing everyone, with or without symptoms, there will be no concrete number as to how many have this.   On top of they blood tests for everyone to see if the antibodies to the virus are present.  This will never happen so numbers will be skewed.


----------



## Medic21

begreen said:


> This is playing it fast and loose with the numbers. The reported numbers of infection are only those that have been tested. The actual infected rate could easily be a magnitude or more higher. The number infected was clamped down in Wuhan by draconian measures to halt community spread. In Italy, they have a similar issue  (as does the US) with limited testing.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Italy's virus fatality rate higher than China's | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News
> 
> 
> Italy's proportion of fatalities to confirmed cases of the new coronavirus infection is now higher than that of China.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www3.nhk.or.jp
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I sincerely hope that in retrospect the damages done by this virus are less than anticipated. But remember that the Spanish Flu morphed over the summer and came back in fall with horrible vengeance.  Yes, the metrics are widely in error due to an abysmal lack of testing due to the administration's slavish insistence on only FDA/CDC approved testing. The actual numbers of this disease in the wild are magnitudes higher than delayed and partial testing indicate. This is relative to the same failures indicated in China and Italy.


Which is going to make the death rate very low overall.  Under 50 and healthy it really looks like there is nothing to worry about.


----------



## MTY

I wonder how healthy the general population of Italy is.  Without knowing something about the condition of the population, there are too many confounds to allow one to extrapolate the death rate data from one country to the world at large.


----------



## Medic21

MTY said:


> I wonder how healthy the general population of Italy is.  Without knowing something about the condition of the population, there are too many confounds to allow one to extrapolate the death rate data from one country to the world at large.


Average age of the dead is 80.2 years old.


----------



## SpaceBus

MTY said:


> I wonder how healthy the general population of Italy is.  Without knowing something about the condition of the population, there are too many confounds to allow one to extrapolate the death rate data from one country to the world at large.


A lot of Italians smoke and the air quality is atrocious, especially in Milan and Rome. They are some of the dirtiest cities in Europe.


----------



## begreen

MTY said:


> I wonder how healthy the general population of Italy is.  Without knowing something about the condition of the population, there are too many confounds to allow one to extrapolate the death rate data from one country to the world at large.


Generally quite healthy, especially in the affluent Lombardy region where the outbreak is concentrated. They have excellent, modern healthcare facilities. One result of their good healthcare is a high number of seniors.


----------



## Ashful

Medic21 said:


> ..,cold symptoms, like I do tonight, and I transported a positive pt two days ago.  As long as I don’t get a fever I don’t have to worry about a self quarantine either.   I won’t be tested regardless.  So if I have it I’ll end up in the number that was never added.


... and you’ll be passing it on to many others, some of whom can die from your decision to not get tested or self-quarantine, despite your public admission of direct contact and subsequent symptoms.

The legal aftermath of this thing, the potential wrongful death and loss of income cases against those who knowingly (or even unknowingly) broke self-quarantine and passed it to another who didn’t fare as well, will be interesting to watch.  I predict a whole new genre of late night injury lawyer commercials.  The criminal side of this is unlikely to see many cases, but the civil side is ripe for picking.


----------



## Ashful

A case of re-infection?  Assuming a secondary strain?









						Japanese man tests positive for coronavirus again | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News
					

Officials in western Japan's Mie Prefecture say a man who was a passenger on a cruise ship that was hit by the coronavirus has again tested positive after recovering from infection.




					www3.nhk.or.jp


----------



## mcdougy

I noticed in some of the news footage that the drive thru testing swabs appeared to be not done correctly? They were running the swab inside the nostril and placing the swab in the tube. The swab needs to take a sample from 4-5" inside the nose, not the 1-2" I saw in media footage? I assume by the end of the week that all of North America will be shut down for a given period. The average person will not be allowed to work. Wether it's 2 or 4 weeks is yet to be determined.


----------



## woodey

Three of the four Public Libraries within a 7 mile radius of us have temp. closed as of this AM. Heading to the only left open ASAP before the hoarding begins.


----------



## woodey

Ashful said:


> A case of re-infection?  Assuming a secondary strain?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Japanese man tests positive for coronavirus again | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News
> 
> 
> Officials in western Japan's Mie Prefecture say a man who was a passenger on a cruise ship that was hit by the coronavirus has again tested positive after recovering from infection.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www3.nhk.or.jp


Maybe a case of the first test being incorrect?


----------



## Medic21

Ashful said:


> ... and you’ll be passing it on to many others, some of whom can die from your decision to not get tested or self-quarantine, despite your public admission of direct contact and subsequent symptoms.
> 
> The legal aftermath of this thing, the potential wrongful death and loss of income cases against those who knowingly (or even unknowingly) broke self-quarantine and passed it to another who didn’t fare as well, will be interesting to watch.  I predict a whole new genre of late night injury lawyer commercials.  The criminal side of this is unlikely to see many cases, but the civil side is ripe for picking.


I don’t meet criteria for a test and unless I have a fever I don’t meet criteria to quarantine based on the guidelines of the cdc.  Therefore I won’t be paid.  It was reported to the department of health and we follow the direction


----------



## Medic21

Ashful said:


> A case of re-infection?  Assuming a secondary strain?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Japanese man tests positive for coronavirus again | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News
> 
> 
> Officials in western Japan's Mie Prefecture say a man who was a passenger on a cruise ship that was hit by the coronavirus has again tested positive after recovering from infection.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www3.nhk.or.jp


Outside of a few publications the thought is it was a lingering infection not necessarily a reinfection.  While not the same the other known corona virus infections SARS and MERS Both have shown good immunity following infection.  It’s pretty safe to assume this will be the same. That will definitely be studied more in the coming weeks and months. But there’s been so few reports of a possible reinfection it leans more towards they were never over the illness to begin with.


----------



## Sodbuster

Medic21 said:


> I think initially it was a “We have no real idea what we are dealing with” issue. We went from N95 masks to regular masks to masking pt and using your judgement. Being droplet precautions for most instances is much easier than airborne Transmission. With the ventilator, BVM, high flow oxygen there is a chance that the virus could be aerosolized so then it’s tim to take respiratory precautions.
> The only benefit of double gloving or double gowning ever would be moving from pt to pt faster.  I have occasionally double gloved on accident scenes to triage and prevent cross contamination between pts.  An extra pair of gloves won’t help anything for me.



Double gloving my have limited uses in the field vs the OR. University of Michigan's team of specialists, and the AANA is advising double gloving when caring for those with Covid-19.


----------



## Medic21

Sodbuster said:


> Double gloving my have limited uses in the field vs the OR. University of Michigan's team of specialists, and the AANA is advising double gloving when caring for those with Covid-19.


The cdc recommends double gloving in the OR as standard practice.  There is A documented failure rate of up to 84% for surgeons.


----------



## Sodbuster

Seasoned Oak said:


> 13000 test done so far and 90% are negative. How is it that so many showing symptoms tests are coming back negative.  7 States open up drive thru testing. Im getting over a very mild case of the regular flu(i think) right now which is good as i wouldnt want deal with both at once.



Remember the regular flue presents with very similar symptoms, but will come back negative for Covid-19.


----------



## peakbagger

One of the very annoying aspects is that FDA has had serious delays in testing kit approvals. There is a large firm in Southern Maine called Idexx that makes test kits for companion and livestock animals. They can effectively "tune' their basic technology to match whatever "bug" appears quickly. In countries with less stringent regulations the technology is used for humans. They claim to have had CV-19 kits in the field for weeks and recently announced that their testing of dogs and cats  indicates few if any infections. https://www.pressherald.com/2020/03...-dogs-for-coronavirus-all-came-back-negative/ This is not new technology, its just Idexx has figured out that trying to get FDA certification for US use doesn't make economic sense so they stick with their target market. These are not invasive tests, there is typically a field test kit and then the sample is sent to local lab for further processing.  Sure maybe its not the gold standard but for screening mass populations,  is a gold standard test that is seriously limited in availability and turnaround more important than a far more available test and infrastructure  that is already deployed across the US?.

With respect to Italy, a typical American is not aware of the deep ties that Italy has with China of late. Italy may have a great health care system but its national government has been on the brink pretty well since WW2. It has had a series of economic crisis's similar  to Greece and that has extended to their corporations, they have to pay junk bond rates to attract capital. The Chinese have taken advantage of that to buy their way into Italian business as many other investors decide to send their capital elsewhere. It doesn't get lot of press in the US but there is lot of discussion in Italy that the Chinese companies are not content to own businesses but also move in Chinese nationals to run the businesses while sidestepping the Italian tax system. This has allowed them a significant backdoor into the EEC. Iran also has significant ties to China as China has stepped in during the extended period of sanctions against the country.


----------



## vinny11950

The demand shock on businesses, especially small businesses, is going to be brutal.  People are going to stop spending, businesses are going to be stressed, layoffs are going to happen, more consumer spending cut backs.  It will spiral out of control if the government doesn't start dropping money from the helicopter, but this time directly to employees who are out of work, or who have lost wages.  Right now there is no system to do this, but they better get one ready.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

vinny11950 said:


> but this time directly to employees who are out of work, or who have lost wages.  Right now there is no system to do this, but they better get one ready.


They could send all us old geezers a bigger SS check. Thats a system  always looking for a cash infusion. We keep the economy humming and dont hog up all the jobs.


----------



## paulnlee

Fed lowered the rate again-0- time to refinance?


----------



## vinny11950

Seasoned Oak said:


> They could send all us old geezers a bigger SS check. Thats a system  always looking for a cash infusion. We keep the economy humming and dont hog up all the jobs.



No, the target should be to replace and sustain lost wages for all workers, especially the most vulnerable.  On the employee side, this means retail, restaurant staffs,  employees for industries hit hard like airlines.  On the business side, give grants to businesses to pay bills and rents to stay open till people start shopping again.

I guess the federal govn't could pass a huge unemployment/sick leave act that would make up for lost wages, but then again those programs are run at the state level, so expect a lot of people to not get what they need.  Worse yet, some states may see that money as a way to fill their own revenue shortfalls.  

This is a mess all around.


----------



## Sodbuster

Medic21 said:


> The cdc recommends double gloving in the OR as standard practice.  There is A documented failure rate of up to 84% for surgeons.



Earlier you said that double gloving is not recommended by the CDC.

*"So why are they double gloving and double gowning which are both directly against CDC recommendations. "*

Now you are saying the CDC recommends double gloving in the OR, which is it?


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Just heard (from a dollar store employee)all dollar store trucks to our town stopped running. That makes no sense. The surest way to cause widespread panic is to let all the shelves go bare at the local supply houses. One on my tenants telling me they are hoarding bottled water so i offered to give them a brita pitcher for tap water ,our local water supply is quite pristine. (other then the chlorine which is removed by the pitcher)


----------



## Sodbuster

Seasoned Oak said:


> Just heard (from a dollar store employee)all dollar store trucks to our town stopped running. That makes no sense. The surest way to cause widespread panic is to let all the shelves go bare at the local supply houses. One on my tenants telling me they are hoarding bottled water so i offered to give them a brita pitcher for tap water ,our local water supply is quite pristine.



I truly do not understand peoples fear of running out of water due to this virus.


----------



## Medic21

Sodbuster said:


> Earlier you said that double gloving is not recommended by the CDC.
> 
> *"So why are they double gloving and double gowning which are both directly against CDC recommendations. "*
> 
> Now you are saying the CDC recommends double gloving in the OR, which is it?











						Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
					

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.




					www.cdc.gov
				




The OR recommendations have been around for a long time.  Nothing to do with Coronavirus.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Sodbuster said:


> I truly do not understand peoples fear of running out of water due to this virus.


Or TP.








						Men who hoarded over 17,000 hand sanitizer bottles donate stockpile amid price-gouging probe
					

Two brothers who bought 17,000 bottles of sanitizer in Tennessee and Kentucky to sell online have donated their stockpile.



					www.usatoday.com


----------



## AlbergSteve

Medic21 said:


> It’s pretty safe to assume this will be the same.


It's not SAFE to assume anything. FFS, it's why we're in this situation to begin with.


----------



## Highbeam

Seasoned Oak said:


> Or TP.



I absolutely understand the fear of running out of TP. Go look at the shelves, they are empty, you can't buy it. That is real scarcity and the hoarders are now glad they hoarded.

Why the run on TP in the first place that caused the real scarcity for the rest of us? That's the question.

Water is totally different. Like many folks I don't use bottled water. It is not a staple.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Highbeam said:


> I absolutely understand the fear of running out of TP. Go look at the shelves, they are empty, you can't buy it. That is real scarcity


Perhaps in the future people will buy more than 1 roll at a time.  Im not a doomsdayer but usually have a 30 day supply or more of everything except beer . A 90 day supply of that seems more appropriate.  Ordering now.


----------



## Highbeam

Seasoned Oak said:


> Im not a doomsdayer but usually have a 30 day supply or more of everything except beer



Here's the failure in that. This "issue" has now lasted almost 30 days and is expected to keep going. You now need to go restock. Can't do it so you are hosed. Maybe you'll need to be hosed since you ran out of TP!


----------



## Seasoned Oak

BREAKING NEWS: White House considering cash payments to U.S. workers
					

White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said the White House 'might' get behind new proposals to give cash to American households during the coronavirus outbreak.




					www.dailymail.co.uk
				



Probably free TP   would be a better idea.


----------



## Medic21

AlbergSteve said:


> It's not SAFE to assume anything. FFS, it's why we're in this situation to begin with.


We have a long way to go to equal 80 million plus infected with over 12,000 deaths back in 2009.  

Calm down, be proactive with your life how you see fit, and go on.

I’m not buying into the fear side of it and I’m one that will be on the very front line of this. I’ve been getting my ass kicked already with 911 calls because of it. The general population is being stupid, the media is being stupid, the experts in the media are paid to sensationalize this, the government is overreaching and overreacting.

Italy’s population, before you mention it, is 18 years older and the average age of death is 80.2. This is expected and will continue. They have nowhere the ability of healthcare we have in the US with beds and hospitals.

Ive worked in healthcare for 25 years plus now, same with my NP wife.  We are not going to make huge changes because we understand what this is.  This isn’t close to the first Pandemic either on of us has worked through.  This is not the first Coronavirus to come out of the region.  We will get through this.


----------



## paulnlee

WOW! Cash for everyone except us poor sole props, no employees, on our own, no one wants to call, afraid because of bullshiiiiiet


----------



## Medic21

Here is one for all of you guys.  There is now a link between COVID-19 and an autoimmune response called a Cytokine Storm.  This is now believed to be brought on by Steroids and NSAIDS, Motrin and Aleve for non medical types. 

So in the last few days we have found we are actually killing pts by using the very treatments that have been standbys for decades. Fevers are controlled by alternating an antipyretic, Tylenol, and NSAID and pneumonia is treated with heavy doses of steroids.









						The coronavirus turns deadly when it leads to ‘cytokine storm’; diagnosis is key to patient’s survival
					

“The virus matters, but the host response matters at least as much, and probably more,” University of Iowa virologist Stanley Perlman says.




					www.oregonlive.com
				




If you get a fever stick with Tylenol and if your on a low dose steroid for allergies or asthma speak with your dr on possible different treatments.


----------



## paulnlee

Oh we're all better off with diversity especially in medicine.


----------



## Sawset

the active ingredients of most generic drugs come from China and India, including 84% of the world's supply of acetaminophen (Tylenol )









						Column: With most drug ingredients coming from China, FDA says shortages have begun
					

Experts warn that because the active ingredients of most generic drugs come from China and India, shortages are likely because of the coronavirus.




					www.latimes.com


----------



## Medic21

paulnlee said:


> WOW! Cash for everyone except us poor sole props, no employees, on our own, no one wants to call, afraid because of bullshiiiiiet


When I mentioned the government is overreaching I am directly referring to the small business owners like you that will be destroyed through this.  The only silver lining I have is as a Paramedic my job will never be closed.  In fact we are trying to build reciprocal agreements with neighboring agencies that very well could have me working 7 days a week at one point to keep the essential bare bones running.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

paulnlee said:


> WOW! Cash for everyone except us poor sole props, no employees, on our own, no one wants to call, afraid because of bullshiiiiiet


I rely mostly on day labor, which i have a hard time getting to show up even when they are flat broke. Once they have $1000 in their pocket ill be doing everything myself for awhile. Some, when offered work, ask for loans instead.  If the idea is for everyone to stay home, that will do it.


----------



## paulnlee

Haven't seen a day laborer yet that can fix a Sub Zero, if you're close enough to Flemington come get em, they're standing in front of Steves


----------



## Seasoned Oak

paulnlee said:


> Haven't seen a day laborer yet that can fix a Sub Zero, if you're close enough to Flemington come get em, they're standing in front of Steves


Most of mine are my tenants working off the rent or house pmts , people im trying to help, also my teenage kids. People i know.  Picking up people from street corners is not something i would consider even under normal circumstances.Most especially with rabid virus on the loose.


----------



## SidecarFlip

Sawset said:


> the active ingredients of most generic drugs come from China and India, including 84% of the world's supply of acetaminophen (Tylenol )
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Column: With most drug ingredients coming from China, FDA says shortages have begun
> 
> 
> Experts warn that because the active ingredients of most generic drugs come from China and India, shortages are likely because of the coronavirus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.latimes.com




We allowed that to happen and now we get to pay for that stupidity.  Hopefully, when this current cycle subsides, this country as a whole, rethinks those bad logistical decisions.


----------



## begreen

Medic21 said:


> Here is one for all of you guys.  There is now a link between COVID-19 and an autoimmune response called a Cytokine Storm.  This is now believed to be brought on by Steroids and NSAIDS, Motrin and Aleve for non medical types.
> 
> So in the last few days we have found we are actually killing pts by using the very treatments that have been standbys for decades. Fevers are controlled by alternating an antipyretic, Tylenol, and NSAID and pneumonia is treated with heavy doses of steroids.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The coronavirus turns deadly when it leads to ‘cytokine storm’; diagnosis is key to patient’s survival
> 
> 
> “The virus matters, but the host response matters at least as much, and probably more,” University of Iowa virologist Stanley Perlman says.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.oregonlive.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> If you get a fever stick with Tylenol and if your on a low dose steroid for allergies or asthma speak with your dr on possible different treatments.


French health minister scolded the British NHS minister for suggesting nsaids.








						Health experts criticise NHS advice to take ibuprofen for Covid-19
					

Comments come after French authorities say such drugs could aggravate condition




					www.theguardian.com
				




My son's GF is sick. Told them last night to avoid ibuprofen and stick with acetaminophen.  Hope she is ok, waiting for phone diagnosis from the hospital. This is getting close, quickly.


----------



## SidecarFlip

begreen said:


> French health minister scolded the British NHS minister for suggesting nsaids.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Health experts criticise NHS advice to take ibuprofen for Covid-19
> 
> 
> Comments come after French authorities say such drugs could aggravate condition
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> My son's GF is sick. Told them last night to avoid ibuprofen and stick with acetaminophen.  Hope she is ok, waiting for phone diagnosis from the hospital. This is getting close, quickly.



Way more pronounced in the east and west coasts than here in the Midwest states, in fact West Virginia has no confirmed cases yet.  I suspect that will all change quickly.

I'm not scared, just apprehensive.  Having gone through what I went through last year (cancer) and given a 30% chance to survive, I'm not afraid to face death again.  I've stared it right in the face once and cheated it but I don't know what my chances are of beating it again.

This is nothing to take lightly, unlike some people think.  This is a killer virus.  I realize the common flu kills thousands every year but there is no vaccine, only making a person comfortable and supplying meds that will 'alleviate' but but won't 'cure' it.

Keep us informed about your son's GF.  I don't like to see anyone have to deal with it.  I'd prefer this to be a bad dream and wake up from it.

I think we will see much mire serious restrictions placed on the population as well.  It seems like voluntary compliance with suggested disciplines is falling on deaf ears so the government will go from voluntary compliance to mandatory.  In fact it has already started here (Michigan) and Ohio.  I understand what the government is trying to accomplish.  Flattening the curve of infected people will allow health care facilities to deal with it.  If it gets out of hand, we will wind up like China with sick people in hallways or worse.  Not good any which way but I understand with the government is looking at perfectly.


----------



## Medic21

SidecarFlip said:


> Way more pronounced in the east and west coasts than here in the Midwest states, in fact West Virginia has no confirmed cases yet.  I suspect that will all change quickly.
> 
> I'm not scared, just apprehensive.  Having gone through what I went through last year (cancer) and given a 30% chance to survive, I'm not afraid to face death again.  I've stared it right in the face once and cheated it but I don't know what my chances are of beating it again.
> 
> This is nothing to take lightly, unlike some people think.  This is a killer virus.  I realize the common flu kills thousands every year but there is no vaccine, only making a person comfortable and supplying meds that will 'alleviate' but but won't 'cure' it.
> 
> Keep us informed about your son's GF.  I don't like to see anyone have to deal with it.  I'd prefer this to be a bad dream and wake up from it.
> 
> I think we will see much mire serious restrictions placed on the population as well.  It seems like voluntary compliance with suggested disciplines is falling on deaf ears so the government will go from voluntary compliance to mandatory.  In fact it has already started here (Michigan) and Ohio.  I understand what the government is trying to accomplish.  Flattening the curve of infected people will allow health care facilities to deal with it.  If it gets out of hand, we will wind up like China with sick people in hallways or worse.  Not good any which way but I understand with the government is looking at perfectly.


you are one correct in the desire to respect this.  You can only tell death to f*#k off so many times.  

The restrictions on establishments are already being ignored in my area of Indiana and police have already said they have no authority to do anything about it. I think most of us feel that way here.

In the end I’m a believer it’s your call to do what you feel you need to. Right now I am trying to decide the best way to protect my kids. I may have to get drastic and I already ran a jackass off my property today selling chit. I’m not worried but, I’m also not stupid.

Like you I’ve flipped death off many times and I’m running out of chances.


----------



## begreen

The best thing we can do is not contribute to the spread. Avoiding gatherings is not just to protect yourself, but everyone else. What happened yesterday at the airports is horrific. Most likely the close quartering of hundreds of people has inoculated many. 

Local grocery stores are asking that only one person do the shopping. Don't bring the family or mate.

GF is heading to the ER, they are not waiting for test results. Son now is masked and considered contagious. This stuff is getting real, fast.


----------



## johneh

The wife went to town for milk! Of the 4 stores in town, no one had any 
That is crazy, why hoard milk it's not like it has a long shelf life.
Call a friend who has Jersy cattle. he gave me 2 fresh cows for a side of beef 
looks like we are back to bartering again 
Been a while since I hand-milked cows kind of feels good and My Lord fresh cream for my coffee


----------



## mcdougy

May I ask what her symptoms are?


----------



## peakbagger

One of my coworkers just got back from Florida from spring break, his observation based on years past is no significant changes or pre-cautions.If it wasnt "in the wild" previously plenty of carriers that have spread out over the US.


----------



## Sodbuster

Medic21 said:


> The cdc recommends double gloving in the OR as standard practice.  There is A documented failure rate of up to 84% for surgeons.



Depends on the surgeon and the surgery being performed, Peds are almost always double gloved while eyeballs and such, are generally single gloved for greater dexterity. Scrub nurses generally follow what the surgeon does,  Anesthesia almost always single gloves, again depending on the case, and what infectious process the patient has. Scary times, though, my oldest daughter just just volunteered for the RICU they are setting up in anticipation of more Covid cases, not real thrilled about that.


----------



## SidecarFlip

I have all my tentative port flushes already scheduled through July, I have to go to infusion monthly to have my Power Port flushed.  I also have a refraction exam for tomorrow morning at the hospital (St, Joe's, Ann Arbor).  I lost my vision in both my eyes as a result of the heavy doses of Chemo I received last fall a year ago, I survived, lost some parts but being a survivor is a wonderful thing.  Problem with Chemo is it impacts everyone differently, depending on the formulation and the dosage.  Thanks to modern medicine (and great private healthcare), I now have almost perfect vision but I need to be refracted to see if I might need light corrective lenses, I don't think so but the doctors at St. Joe always want to make sure of everything.

I called to confirm a few hours ago and the scheduler asked me on the phone if I had been out of the country to which I replied no which is standard today but then asked me if I had been out of state (kind of caught me off guard) but I replied no and added that 'I don't have Covid 19 that I know of and she gave out a sigh....

I could have had the port removed.  I chose not to.  It's my badge of courage.  I have it as a reminder of what I went through.  Having said that, I sure as hell don't want a repeat performance from cancer or Covid 19 that I prefer to call the Wuhan Flu.

Begreen, you, your son and his girlfriend will be in my prayers tonight.  I say a silent prayer every night when I thank the Lord for another day.......

Through all this, my biomass stove keeps chugging along though tomorrow afternoon I need to mix up another load of corn and pellets to feed it.  It's always hungry....


----------



## begreen

mcdougy said:


> May I ask what her symptoms are?


High fever last night, respiratory distress. She is high risk with diabetes, hypertension and overweight.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

begreen said:


> GF is heading to the ER, they are not waiting for test results. Son now is masked and considered contagious. This stuff is getting real, fast.


This thing is moving fast. Dr Osterholm  said tonight he feels this will be with us for many months and few will be able to completely avoid it. Called it  "a Corona Winter" .   Keep us posted BG , were all pulling for you and your family to make through ok.


----------



## SidecarFlip

+1 on my end too.  Wife just told me the Mayor of San Francisco locked the city down.  Social distancing....  Only essential services.  No gatherings, no socializing, nothing.  Stay home.  Good place to be actually.  I'm practicing that myself as well as my wife.


----------



## CaptSpiff

Medic21 said:


> The restrictions on establishments are already being ignored in my area of Indiana and police have already said they have no authority to do anything about it.



Yeah, it's usually a civil rather than a criminal violation. Here the County Executive is sending out the Fire Marshall and the Code Enforcement Officers to order temp closings and give fines.


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## SidecarFlip

I'd like to see a voluntary lock on the stock markets.  No point in everyone loosing their butts over something out of their control...


----------



## MTY

An aged population, such as mentioned for Italy, is not necessarily a healthy population.  That their health care system kept them alive should not be equated with them having been kept healthy.  My dog was kept alive for probably three years longer than he should have been.  He was alive, but not healthy.  Every time I was ready to pull the plug, I was overridden.


----------



## begreen

Seasoned Oak said:


> This thing is moving fast. Dr Osterholm  said tonight he feels this will be with us for many months and few will be able to completely avoid it. Called it  "a Corona Winter" .   Keep us posted BG , were all pulling for you and your family to make through ok.


Thanks. They have her on a nebulizer. Still not sure if it's the virus. Takes a while for the test results to come back.


----------



## SpaceBus

My wife and I cant work anymore because someone she works with went to FL and got back Sunday night.


----------



## mcdougy

https://www.cbc.ca/news/coronavirus-italy-1.5498650 

Another set of reasons why Italy is being hit so hard.


----------



## Medic21

SidecarFlip said:


> +1 on my end too.  Wife just told me the Mayor of San Francisco locked the city down.  Social distancing....  Only essential services.  No gatherings, no socializing, nothing.  Stay home.  Good place to be actually.  I'm practicing that myself as well as my wife.


And the term “locked down” the news is using is playing into the panic hype.  They have no different restrictions than we do here.


----------



## SidecarFlip

MTY said:


> An aged population, such as mentioned for Italy, is not necessarily a healthy population.  That their health care system kept them alive should not be equated with them having been kept healthy.  My dog was kept alive for probably three years longer than he should have been.  He was alive, but not healthy.  Every time I was ready to pull the plug, I was overridden.


That is pretty crass on your part.  A canine is a bit different that a human in my view and I bet you don't have it yet.  I say yet because if and when you contract it and if you get really bad, you want a medical professional to decide if you live or expire?  I don't believe you do.

Lots of people in this country have pre existing conditions that make them at risk, both young and old.  Our health system as well as the hypocratic oath centers on the continuance of life, not ending it.


----------



## SidecarFlip

If people used their heads for something other than to space their ears apart, we would be much better off.  As it is, 'people' will have to be forced by external means because somewhere between those 2 ears, the message is lost.


----------



## Grizzerbear

SidecarFlip said:


> Way more pronounced in the east and west coasts than here in the Midwest states, in fact West Virginia has no confirmed cases yet. I suspect that will all change



Yea it has been slower to spread to here. School shutdowns are beginning to go into effect everywhere here now though. My daughter is out until at least the first of April starting after today. The governor declared a state of emergency to release funds to help combat it and even daycares are closing. It's going to be hard on folks around here that's for sure.


----------



## SidecarFlip

Grizzerbear said:


> Yea it has been slower to spread to here. School shutdowns are beginning to go into effect everywhere here now though. My daughter is out until at least the first of April starting after today. The governor declared a state of emergency to release funds to help combat it and even daycares are closing. It's going to be hard on folks around here that's for sure.




Financial hardship or personal hardship is better than permanent hardship...  death.  Nothing comes free, everything in life has a price, including life itself.


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## vinny11950

And this!  There is a reason Governors are freaking out.


----------



## Sodbuster

SidecarFlip said:


> That is pretty crass on your part.  A canine is a bit different that a human in my view and I bet you don't have it yet.  I say yet because if and when you contract it and if you get really bad, you want a medical professional to decide if you live or expire?  I don't believe you do.
> 
> Lots of people in this country have pre existing conditions that make them at risk, both young and old.  Our health system as well as the hypocratic oath centers on the continuance of life, not ending it.



A dog is not a human like you said, and it's up to us to know when it is time to have  it's life end. We had a German Shepherd that had bad hip dysplasia, and then developed Degenerative Myopathy , she was blind and couldn't control her bowels.  It was up to us, as her caregivers to make the decision to put her out of her misery. 

In humans, that is why it is so important to have an Advanced Directive on file, so your family knows your wishes, should you not be able to communicate.  That way your family is making the decisions and not the Dr's.


----------



## Grizzerbear

SidecarFlip said:


> Financial hardship or personal hardship is better than permanent hardship...  death.  Nothing comes free, everything in life has a price, including life itself.



O I agree. I actually don't understand why they have waited this long and to me two weeks of school closings is not going to be long enough.


----------



## bfitz3

Medic21 said:


> We have a long way to go to equal 80 million plus infected with over 12,000 deaths back in 2009.
> 
> Calm down, be proactive with your life how you see fit, and go on.
> 
> I’m not buying into the fear side of it and I’m one that will be on the very front line of this. I’ve been getting my ass kicked already with 911 calls because of it. The general population is being stupid, the media is being stupid, the experts in the media are paid to sensationalize this, the government is overreaching and overreacting.
> 
> Italy’s population, before you mention it, is 18 years older and the average age of death is 80.2. This is expected and will continue. They have nowhere the ability of healthcare we have in the US with beds and hospitals.
> 
> Ive worked in healthcare for 25 years plus now, same with my NP wife.  We are not going to make huge changes because we understand what this is.  This isn’t close to the first Pandemic either on of us has worked through.  This is not the first Coronavirus to come out of the region.  We will get through this.


Italy actually has 20% more beds, per capita.


----------



## SpaceBus

I'm going to spend my time in quarantine learning how to make traps and tools to eat local wildlife.


----------



## Medic21

bfitz3 said:


> Italy actually has 20% more beds, per capita.


2.8/1000 vs 3.2/1000 with 60 million vs 325 million in population is way fewer beds available.  Not to mention no country has the number of ICU beds we have or the ability to move as many patients around the country as easily as we do.  

It is a breeze with all the transport rescources we have to move pts from a highly impacted area to a less impacted area for thoseICU beds.  I take transfers daily that Italian Paramedics are not allowed to because we have advanced or healthcare and EMS systems way beyond most countries.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

mcdougy said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/coronavirus-italy-1.5498650
> Another set of reasons why Italy is being hit so hard.


Iv read  few stories of how China is quite entrenched in italy. And other countries dealing with a high level of debt like greece buying up business and assets at fire sale prices. For the most part only trusting chinese nationals to run these business ,so a lot of back and forth travelers exacerbating the spread of the virus.  Shows theres a price to be paid in more ways than one in these countries for financial mismanagement.


----------



## MTY

SF, As someone who most likely is not in good health, your response was more emotional than logical.  Anyone with the capacity to think should realize , and a trip through most care centers would demonstrate it, many are kept alive artificially.  Only someone who was only using their head for a hat rack would not be able to recognize that age does not equate to health, and that when someone is being artificially kept alive they are more prone to pass from a virus that would only make a healthy person ill for a few days.  
There was only a logical point made, not a comparison of canines to humans.  Sorry you lack the ability to grasp that.


----------



## SidecarFlip

Sodbuster said:


> A dog is not a human like you said, and it's up to us to know when it is time to have  it's life end. We had a German Shepherd that had bad hip dysplasia, and then developed Degenerative Myopathy , she was blind and couldn't control her bowels.  It was up to us, as her caregivers to make the decision to put her out of her misery.
> 
> In humans, that is why it is so important to have an Advanced Directive on file, so your family knows your wishes, should you not be able to communicate.  That way your family is making the decisions and not the Dr's.




Did that a long time ago,  Remember I had what was considered terminal cancer (30% survival chance) so all the 'paperwork' was done long ago.  I only go to St. Joe anyway,  It's become my second home, great hospital great staff, I don't go anywhere else.

Don't want to become a statistic anyway.  Was just there.  Just got home actually.


----------



## SidecarFlip

SpaceBus said:


> I'm going to spend my time in quarantine learning how to make traps and tools to eat local wildlife.




I always eat local wildlife.  I'm a whitetail hunter and I do my own processing as well.  Only time I don't is when I hunt out west.


----------



## PaulOinMA

Dare county, NC Outer Banks closed to visitors starting 2 PM today.  Closing the Wright Memorial Bridge (WMB)





__





						Dare County News  | Dare County, NC
					





					www.darenc.com
				




Our house is in Currituck county, and I have to use the WMB to get on the Outer Banks.  I can get on, if needed.  I'm a non-resident owner and Currituck county mails out a re-entry permit, which I have.


----------



## SidecarFlip

vinny11950 said:


> And this!  There is a reason Governors are freaking out.





Maybe, maybe not.  It appears that the concentrations of Wuhan Flu are in the coasts, your and the west coast right now.  Trump is doing as much as he can at this point.  Personally, I'm for imposed Martial Law and a complete no exceptions lock down but the American people aren't going to go for that.....  yet.

The best avenue is 1.  Be calm  2.  Practice social distancing  3.  Wash your hands regularly  4.  Be a hermit and most importantly  5.  Don't be a transmitter of Covid 19 because you feel you have to exercise your freedom of movement.  It's a very selfish and self centered attitude and the driving reason why it's spreading.  Ain't spreading by itself, it's spreading because of stupid and arrogant people.

I am glad I live in a remote, agricultrial area.  Few people and those that live around me aren't positive so I', not too worried about locals.  I worry about strangers and I practice social distancing with them.  At least 6 feet away and not in line with their mouths if they are talking.


----------



## Sodbuster

SidecarFlip said:


> Did that a long time ago,  Remember I had what was considered terminal cancer (30% survival chance) so all the 'paperwork' was done long ago.  I only go to St. Joe anyway,  It's become my second home, great hospital great staff, I don't go anywhere else.
> 
> Don't want to become a statistic anyway.  Was just there.  Just got home actually.



You're right in my neck of the woods, and I use St. Joe as well, even though my wife works for UofM. UofM is great if you have a rare, funky condition, but unless you want residents hacking away at you while they learn, I'll pick St. Joe, so does my wife. Hope your condition improves.


----------



## PaulOinMA

SidecarFlip said:


> … 4.  Be a hermit …



Not a problem.  I'm introverted.  Way introverted.  

I'm a Meyers-Briggs ISTJ.  I was curious if it changed over time since I first did the test 30 years ago.

Did the following: https://www.16personalities.com/

_Individual traits:

Introverted - 96%

_

I was watching CNN last night since there are no sports on aside from replay basketball.  Like I really wanted to watch Miss State hit a last second shot to beat UConn in the 2017 women's NCAA Final Four again last night. 

Don Lemon started his show chatting with Cuomo.  Said he's a recluse, so self-quarantining and sheltering in place is not a problem.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

A lot of talk about giving everyone $1000 a month till this passes. Thats more than my SS check for paying in for 50 yrs.  The printing press is on overdrive.


----------



## WinterinWI

PaulOinMA said:


> Don Lemon


----------



## Sodbuster

WinterinWI said:


> View attachment 258293



He must have been one of the three people that still watch that guy.


----------



## bfitz3

Medic21 said:


> 2.8/1000 vs 3.2/1000 with 60 million vs 325 million in population is way fewer beds available.  Not to mention no country has the number of ICU beds we have or the ability to move as many patients around the country as easily as we do.
> 
> It is a breeze with all the transport rescources we have to move pts from a highly impacted area to a less impacted area for thoseICU beds.  I take transfers daily that Italian Paramedics are not allowed to because we have advanced or healthcare and EMS systems way beyond most countries.



Hmmm... I’m willing to admit being wrong on that. I was citing a stat from a reputable source, but may have jumbled it. I Went hunting for the stat and couldn’t find it.  Perhaps it was available icu beds? Ventilator/equipment related? Such is the problem with the scale of the issue and the number of sources available. I apologize 

Regardless, we’re staring down some dire circumstances. Hopefully the current state of action will keep things manageable.


----------



## begreen

Just got word, our son's GF does not have corona, she has human-metapneumovirus ( hMPV). Not good, but a huge sigh of relief for now. They want to keep her on a nebulizer for 2 days, but there are no free beds. ER at one of our top hospitals is overwhelmed. And this is early on folks. Any talking head that says we have plenty of blah, blah, blah, is blowing it out of his or her ass.

Time we mobilized state National Guards and the Army Corp of Engineers to start setting up mobile hospitals and converting facilities into hospital units. This is going to be a critical need in a couple of weeks here as the virus continues to double every ~6 days. This is Great Britain's health system current beds assessment.


----------



## Highbeam

So get this, my wife is a school employee who is being mandated to provide daycare for first responders who have children that are unable to go to school due to schools being shut down. So now my wife spends all day with kids that go home to a first responder who is more likely to be exposed to the virus than one of the average population. The school district is a seperate "company" than the fire department. What's next? Roof the mayor's house?


----------



## Highbeam

New York is really on a tear. Passed WA for known cases, death toll rising. It's like a sporting event.


----------



## begreen

A good lesson on what happens as numbers double


----------



## SidecarFlip

Sodbuster said:


> You're right in my neck of the woods, and I use St. Joe as well, even though my wife works for UofM. UofM is great if you have a rare, funky condition, but unless you want residents hacking away at you while they learn, I'll pick St. Joe, so does my wife. Hope your condition improves.



Actually, after what I went through, I'm in good health.  I take nothing medication wise.  I'm 'high on life' now...

I surmised  you were.  Was there today actually, sort of my second home.  Great. compassionate and caring institution and I was blessed to get a personal referral to the IHA wing, they literally saved my life in no uncertain terms.  One of the few medically orientated place I'm completely at ease at.  I'm a 'very frequent flyer' there though not so much anymore but still pretty often.  They treat you like family, I cannot say enough good about them, the surgeons and the specialists there, all great people.  Heck, my wife and I have gotten to know some of the surgical staff personally.... We are there that much...

When I was there today (Huron Opthamology), for a refraction on my newly installed lenses (both eyes) was talking to the scheduler and she told me she was in the process of calling cataract patients with scheduled surgeries to inform them that they would not be performing any lens replacements for the immediate future, only cancer related surgery and emergency situations.  Still very laid back, no masks but social distancing was being practiced and plenty of hand sanatizer everywhere.  I have scheduled port flushes scheduled through August and a CT scan coming up.  I may depending on how thngs play out, cancel some of the flushes and postpone the CT.  I prefer not to burden them if the situation deteriorates.  I'm all good (minus some parts) right now.

Nice to be alive I might add and I want to stay that way.  If it wasn't for the St. Joe healthcare teams, I wouldn't be here posting this right now.  I'm eternally indebted to them as well as the Lord for allowing me to stay on this planet a while longer, besides I still have people I want to pizz off.

Great place to be healed, I cannot say enough good about them and the doctors and surgeons that made it possible for me to continue living and being productive....

....and of course the excellent private healthcare my wife and I have.  When you run up a tab well in the excess of a million bucks (and counting), it's good to have excellent healthcare.

Heck, we might actually be neighbors and not know it....


----------



## Medic21

begreen said:


> Just got word, our son's GF does not have corona, she has human-metapneumovirus ( hMPV). Not good, but a huge sigh of relief for now. They want to keep her on a nebulizer for 2 days, but there are no free beds. ER at one of our top hospitals is overwhelmed. And this is early on folks. Any talking head that says we have plenty of blah, blah, blah, is blowing it out of his or her ass.
> 
> Time we mobilized state National Guards and the Army Corp of Engineers to start setting up mobile hospitals and converting facilities into hospital units. This is going to be a critical need in a couple of weeks here as the virus continues to double every ~6 days. This is Great Britain's health system current beds assessment.
> 
> View attachment 258294


They have multiple FEMA hospitals around the United States.  Won’t matter though as the people that staff them staff the current hospitals now.  I know, I’m on one of the task forces.  Beds are not as short in supply as personnel to staff the hospital.  

This could be our country reaping what it has done to the medical field for decades. Medicare and Medicaid have driven down payments, 75% of the revenue facilities get, so low pay and working conditions have driven a lot of people from the field.

EMS is one of the fields that is about 25% understaffed nationwide. If you think the National Guard could replace me with a Medic to do my job your nuts. The 9 weeks of training they get compared to my 2 years of schooling. If a RN is in the NG they are in a hospital working also already. Same goes for drs.

They go days without having open beds regularly without this Virus.  This is an example of letting the government, Medicaid and Medicare, dictate healthcare for decades. Buckle up, gonna be a rough road.


----------



## paulnlee

Medic21 said:


> They have multiple FEMA hospitals around the United States.  Won’t matter though as the people that staff them staff the current hospitals now.  I know, I’m on one of the task forces.  Beds are not as short in supply as personnel to staff the hospital.
> 
> This could be our country reaping what it has done to the medical field for decades. Medicare and Medicaid have driven down payments, 75% of the revenue facilities get, so low pay and working conditions have driven a lot of people from the field.
> 
> EMS is one of the fields that is about 25% understaffed nationwide. If you think the National Guard could replace me with a Medic to do my job your nuts. The 9 weeks of training they get compared to my 2 years of schooling. If a RN is in the NG they are in a hospital working also already. Same goes for drs.
> 
> They go days without having open beds regularly without this Virus.  This is an example of letting the government, Medicaid and Medicare, dictate healthcare for decades. Buckle up, gonna be a rough road.


So you seem to think you have your finger on the pulse, what is your solution


----------



## Seasoned Oak

begreen said:


> Just got word, our son's GF does not have corona, she has human-metapneumovirus ( hMPV). Not good, but a huge sigh of relief for now. They want to keep her on a nebulizer for 2 days, but there are no free beds. ER at one of our top hospitals is overwhelmed. And this is early on folks. Any talking head that says we have plenty of blah, blah, blah, is blowing it out of his or her ass.


Any possibility of being moved outside the high traffic area to a hospital that doesnt have a large outbreak yet,should be plenty of those now in the early stages?


----------



## Highbeam

Seasoned Oak said:


> Any possibility of being moved outside the high traffic area to a hospital that doesnt have a large outbreak yet,should be plenty of those now in the early stages?



Just like when a storm causes a surge in river levels downstream, you want to be ahead of the surge or behind it. I would rather be ahead this time I think. WA just popped up to 50 dead, but NY is in the lead for total infected.


----------



## Medic21

paulnlee said:


> So you seem to think you have your finger on the pulse, what is your solution


We will have to ride it out. Those of us that work in the medical field know what’s coming if this is not controlled we will be in a world of hurt.  Some will quit and walk away from the profession when the going gets hard.  Some of us will not turn our backs.  In the end most will live, some will not despite our best efforts but, it really is just another day in our jobs.

There is no way to sugar coat it, out hospitals on a daily basis are at 80%+ capacity and ICUs are over 90% capacity. This means there is very little room for extra patients. Unless you can find a way to stop people from having heart attacks, strokes, getting sick, etc. there is nothing we can do but, ride it out. 

a lot of these critical pts will need one on one care and staffing is very low.  The ratio of nurse to pt in most hospitals are stretched thin.  ERs struggle to staff.  Maybe, just maybe, this will wake powers that be up to realize staffing needs to be fixed.  This isn’t a mass causality incident that we can call people in and work 18-20 hour shift for a week to get through.  This will be a grind.  A grind we are not prepared for.  

Not a pretty thought but, reality never is. This country is in a horrible place before this and I can’t even say that we will get through this if we work together.

simple reply, WE F#*ked.

How’s that?


----------



## SidecarFlip

Highbeam said:


> Just like when a storm causes a surge in river levels downstream, you want to be ahead of the surge or behind it. I would rather be ahead this time I think. WA just popped up to 50 dead, but NY is in the lead for total infected.




My humble opinion is...  That attorney that disregarded instructions to isolate and went to church anyway and infected all those innocent people should be tried for Murder 1.  No excuse except the 'all about me' mentality.

Begreen, glad she's not but things could change any day.  Glad I don't live on either coast right now.  I'm sure it's coming but at least we can somewhat prepare.

2020 is going to be a very bad year for many innocent folks.


----------



## Sodbuster

SidecarFlip said:


> Actually, after what I went through, I'm in good health.  I take nothing medication wise.  I'm 'high on life' now...
> 
> I surmised  you were.  Was there today actually, sort of my second home.  Great. compassionate and caring institution and I was blessed to get a personal referral to the IHA wing, they literally saved my life in no uncertain terms.  One of the few medically orientated place I'm completely at ease at.  I'm a 'very frequent flyer' there though not so much anymore but still pretty often.  They treat you like family, I cannot say enough good about them, the surgeons and the specialists there, all great people.  Heck, my wife and I have gotten to know some of the surgical staff personally.... We are there that much...
> 
> When I was there today (Huron Opthamology), for a refraction on my newly installed lenses (both eyes) was talking to the scheduler and she told me she was in the process of calling cataract patients with scheduled surgeries to inform them that they would not be performing any lens replacements for the immediate future, only cancer related surgery and emergency situations.  Still very laid back, no masks but social distancing was being practiced and plenty of hand sanatizer everywhere.  I have scheduled port flushes scheduled through August and a CT scan coming up.  I may depending on how thngs play out, cancel some of the flushes and postpone the CT.  I prefer not to burden them if the situation deteriorates.  I'm all good (minus some parts) right now.
> 
> Nice to be alive I might add and I want to stay that way.  If it wasn't for the St. Joe healthcare teams, I wouldn't be here posting this right now.  I'm eternally indebted to them as well as the Lord for allowing me to stay on this planet a while longer, besides I still have people I want to pizz off.
> 
> Great place to be healed, I cannot say enough good about them and the doctors and surgeons that made it possible for me to continue living and being productive....
> 
> ....and of course the excellent private healthcare my wife and I have.  When you run up a tab well in the excess of a million bucks (and counting), it's good to have excellent healthcare.
> 
> Heck, we might actually be neighbors and not know it....



Roughly Argentine and M-59


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Were on the right track if we can self isolate.  Stop the transmission. We are taking unprecedented steps  practically shutting down the whole country. If we can level out the curve long enough to get ahead of this eventually there will be a cure for it. Im a bit surprised on the rapid nationwide shutdown but its exactly whats needed. Its what China did and the results are promising.


----------



## SidecarFlip

Seasoned Oak said:


> A lot of talk about giving everyone $1000 a month till this passes. Thats more than my SS check for paying in for 50 yrs.  The printing press is on overdrive.




Not mine by a long shot but then I worked and paid all my quarters at a high paying (and taxed) job.  I'll still take an extra grand a month from the Fed.  I can use it for Toilet paper and wet wpies....


----------



## Seasoned Oak

SidecarFlip said:


> Not mine by a long shot but then I worked and paid all my quarters at a high paying (and taxed) job.  I'll still take an extra grand a month from the Fed.  I can use it for Toilet paper and wet wpies....


Lots of holes in my SS record. Some employers paid nothing in but still deducted it from my pay. Didnt find out until yrs later.  Im filling those in now and it goes up every year.


----------



## SidecarFlip

Seasoned Oak said:


> Lots of holes in my SS record. Some employers paid nothing in but still deducted it from my pay. Didnt find out until yrs later.  Im filling those in now and it goes up every year.




I'm a small business owner myself with a couple employees and I'd never deduct for SS and not pay it to SSA.  That is blatantly dis


Sodbuster said:


> Roughly Argentine and M-59



You are way north of me.  I'm south on 23 near Cabelas in Dundee.  Going to St. Joe's is a drive for us (40 miles) but worth every mile and then some.  We have a few heath care centers (hospitals) closer, but none as good as, actually not even close to the care level that St. Joe's provides.

My niece had breast cancer, she's 28 and went to UofM for her treatment and surgery and I agree, no comparison in care quality or personal treatment.  Interestingly, Uof M and St. Joe collaborate in cancer research,  Top floor of the tower is all labs, well 9th floor is.  10th is the physical plant.  Spent some time on the 8th floor and on the 2nd floor as well.  They take good care of you there.  One thing always impressed me, I was always told you can stay (in the hospital) as long as you want to stay, no one will tell you to leave. Of course I wanted to leave after a week, the food sucked...lol  Great place, terrible food....


----------



## Medic21

SidecarFlip said:


> I'm a small business owner myself with a couple employees and I'd never deduct for SS and not pay it to SSA.  That is blatantly dis
> 
> 
> You are way north of me.  I'm south on 23 near Cabelas in Dundee.  Going to St. Joe's is a drive for us (40 miles) but worth every mile and then some.  We have a few heath care centers (hospitals) closer, but none as good as, actually not even close to the care level that St. Joe's provides.
> 
> My niece had breast cancer, she's 28 and went to UofM for her treatment and surgery and I agree, no comparison in care quality or personal treatment.  Interestingly, Uof M and St. Joe collaborate in cancer research,  Top floor of the tower is all labs, well 9th floor is.  10th is the physical plant.  Spent some time on the 8th floor and on the 2nd floor as well.  They take good care of you there.  One thing always impressed me, I was always told you can stay (in the hospital) as long as you want to stay, no one will tell you to leave. Of course I wanted to leave after a week, the food sucked...lol  Great place, terrible food....


I had a pt we transferred to U of M every couple of months from out ER.  It is a nice place and a nice 5 hour break there and back.


----------



## begreen

This article is a bit weak on specifics and 2000 people is a small sampling, but it is another data point in understanding this virus. Not great news for me, I'm A-Neg.









						People with blood type A may be more vulnerable to coronavirus: study
					

Preliminary research in Wuhan and Shenzhen indicates patients with the blood group had a higher rate of infection and tended to get more severe symptoms.




					www.scmp.com


----------



## begreen

Frontline reporting from Italy.


----------



## thewoodlands

Just a small company helping out in the Syracuse N.Y. area. 








						CNY couple, using 3D printers, makes 100s of face shields for coronavirus clinic
					

Isaac Budmen and Stephanie Keefe are producing the shields in their home using 3D printers.




					www.syracuse.com


----------



## thewoodlands

This is for Erie County in the Buffalo area, they give some info on where those with confirmed cases of Covid -19 had been. 








						Where those with Covid-19 visited, traveled in recent weeks
					

Those who may have been in the same area as an infected person should “self-monitor” for symptoms for a 14-day period following the potential




					buffalonews.com


----------



## Seasoned Oak

3 cases in care at Danville Geisinger about 20 minutes from me.  A huge medical facility well equipped to handle a large volume of patients.  Report tonight: Study finds that 6 out of 7 case in china went unreported.
Quote "Six out of seven, or 86 percent of all COVID-19 cases were not reported in China before the implementation of travel restrictions, according to a study published in the journal Science and funded by the National Institute of Health." Unquote.

 Interesting ,if true would change the equation quite a bit.


----------



## Sawset

SpaceBus said:


> I'm going to spend my time in quarantine learning how to make traps and tools to eat local wildlife.


Have any pangolins in your area?


----------



## Medic21

Seasoned Oak said:


> 3 cases in care at Danville Geisinger about 20 minutes from me.  A huge medical facility well equipped to handle a large volume of patients.  Report tonight: Study finds that 6 out of 7 case in china went unreported.
> Quote "Six out of seven, or 86 percent of all COVID-19 cases were not reported in China before the implementation of travel restrictions, according to a study published in the journal Science and funded by the National Institute of Health." Unquote.
> 
> Interesting ,if true would change the equation quite a bit.


Not to downplay this but, I’ve been saying this from the beginning. And if 87% of cases were not reported this is going to drive the death rate way below the common flu. When all you hear about are the sickest patients and more than likely patients admitted to the hospital with comorbid factors.  It makes This sound much worse than what it is.


----------



## PaulOinMA

Price Chopper, a northeast supermarket, now closes closes overnight and opens at 7 AM.  Special shopping hour only for at-risk population of seniors 6 AM - 7 AM.  I'm over 60.


----------



## PaulOinMA

Here's an interesting link that was on a car web site I frequent.  We are a global community.









						Coronavirus Update (Live): 107,957,657 Cases and 2,367,471 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## semipro

PaulOinMA said:


> Here's an interesting link that was on a car web site I frequent.  We are a global community.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus Update (Live): 107,957,657 Cases and 2,367,471 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
> 
> 
> Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.worldometers.info


Nice, concise yet detailed summary of Covid 19 status worldwide.
Heat maps are great for illustrating time and space trends but they don't show details well.
The graphs are rather scary.  The curves certainly don't look to be flattening.
Thanks for sharing this.


----------



## begreen

This is circulating the wires now. Chinese scientists say they have found an effective treatment for Covid-19. If so, this will be huge.  In a nutshell they have found that:

In two separate studies, patients given the drug tested negative for the virus after a median of four days, vs. 11 days for those without it.
The trials also found x-ray photos showed improved lung condition in 91% of patients given the drug, vs. 62% for those without.
No obvious side effects were noted. Researchers formally recommended using Avigan to tackle the virus.









						Chinese official says Fujifilm’s Favipiravir could treat Covid-19
					

China’s Science and Technology Ministry official has said that Japan-based Fujifilm’s anti-flu drug Favipiravir was found to help Covid-19 patients recover.




					www.pharmaceutical-technology.com
				












						Japanese flu drug appears ‘effective’ in coronavirus treatment in Chinese clinical trials – TechCrunch
					

Based on results of clinical trials conducted with affected patients in both Wuhan and Shenzhen by Chinese medical authorities, Japanese-made flu drug favipiravir (also known as Avigan) has been shown to be effective in both reducing the duration of the COVID-19 virus in patients and to have improv…




					techcrunch.com


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Since they have the  most cases and testing restrictions are most likely lax they have the greatest opportunity to test all sorts of cures.  Sharing it with the world will go a long way towards healing some of the bad blood  that sure to come out of this whole thing.


----------



## begreen

Favipiravir - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## begreen

Seasoned Oak said:


> Since they have the  most cases and testing restrictions are most likely lax they have the greatest opportunity to test all sorts of cures.  Sharing it with the world will go a long way towards healing some of the bad blood  that sure to come out of this whole thing.


It is a Japanese drug, but the Chinese are freely sharing research. Whether we accept it and the FDA fast tracks approval is another question. The bad blood with the Chinese has two sides, unfortunately. We have not done well diplomatically in recent years. The drug works well enough that the Chinese govt. has decided to use it as a frontline treatment. That's fast action.

This is the American anti-viral that is also is testing helpful in some cases, but there are side-effects. 








						As the coronavirus spreads, a drug that once raised the world’s hopes is given a second shot
					

With breakneck speed, an experimental drug to treat #coronavirus is raising hopes. But first, "it needs to be proven."




					www.statnews.com


----------



## begreen

This article helps put a better perspective on Covid-19. It's a good read.








						Coronavirus: Ten reasons why you ought not to panic
					

Pandemic does not refer to the lethality of a virus but to its transmissibility and geographical extension.




					theconversation.com


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Looking at the positives is very helpful.
Keep busy,safely.  Im getting a lot of work done lately. Watching the news tends to be depressing.  You can worry yourself sick.  Also using extra time at home to  spend with family ,something thats always in short supply.  Good time to get out in nature with family away from people. Or go process some trees. I have 3 down that need cleaned up before the grass starts growing and i have to mow.


----------



## Ashful

Medic21 said:


> Not to downplay this but, I’ve been saying this from the beginning. And if 87% of cases were not reported this is going to drive the death rate way below the common flu. When all you hear about are the sickest patients and more than likely patients admitted to the hospital with comorbid factors.  It makes This sound much worse than what it is.


I hope you’re right, but our economy is wrecked as a result of this, either way.

Maybe it was all a left-wing conspiracy.


----------



## Medic21

Ashful said:


> I hope you’re right, but our economy is wrecked as a result of this, either way.
> 
> Maybe it was all a left-wing conspiracy.


Lmao, I’m gonna need a tin foil hat to protect me from the tin foil hat crowd soon.  

For a lot of you that think I’m not taking this serious I’d like to give some perspective. In the middle of all this crap and planning meetings, conference calls with state officials, etc I responded to an 18 month old that was shaken baby and will probably die. My world goes on and nothing will stop. Just more added to it.

I have spent a good portion of the last week preparing for this and planning contingencies.  I will probably be very scarce but if you have any serious questions send a message And I’ll answer what I can from a EMS and a homeland security standpoint.  I believe we are too vulnerable to terrorism to be posting things in the open about our responses.  Rest assured, on the State and Local level we are working our butts off for you.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Ashful said:


> I hope you’re right, but our economy is wrecked as a result of this, either way.
> 
> Maybe it was all a left-wing conspiracy.


Im sure the economy will come roaring back.  And i hope a lot of lessons are not quickly forgotten, like dont get your medicine and medical supplies from places that can cut you off at the drop of a hat.


----------



## PaulOinMA

begreen said:


> ... FDA fast tracks approval …



For those interested, here's FDA's Fast Track information.









						Fast Track Designation Requests
					

Fast Track Designation Requests




					www.fda.gov
				




There's also Breakthrough Therapy designation.









						Breakthrough Therapy Designation Requests
					

Breakthrough Therapy Designation Requests




					www.fda.gov


----------



## ABMax24

Well the Canadian government has finally got things in the works. All 6 major banks will allow those whose jobs are affecting by the virus to defer mortgage and loan payments up to 6 months, the government will buy up $50 billion in mortgages from the banks to make this happen. Unemployment insurance will now cover those traditionally not covered such as self-employed people.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

May be soon time to fill up those oil tanks. I have about 2000 gals of available storage thats almost empty. Gas in florida $1.90


----------



## johneh

The United States and Canada will suspend non-essential travel between the two countries due to the coronavirus pandemic, 
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/politics/us-canada-suspend-travel/index.html


----------



## begreen

SpaceBus said:


> I'm going to spend my time in quarantine learning how to make traps and tools to eat local wildlife.


Might set some bigger traps too. Just in case.


----------



## mrd1995

Seasoned Oak said:


> May be soon time to fill up those oil tanks. I have about 2000 gals of available storage thats almost empty. Gas in florida $1.90


North Western, PA still at $2.60ish with our first confirmed case in the county.


----------



## AlbergSteve

Ashful said:


> I hope you’re right, but our economy is wrecked as a result of this, either way.
> 
> Maybe it was all a left-wing conspiracy.


I'm sure it is. Hannity said everything's going to be alright and the president just a few days ago said corona was "under tremendous control".


----------



## PaulOinMA

My wife and her boss drove from SLC to Vegas today after the earthquake and they were able to get back in their hotels.  Nan was on the 15th floor of her hotel.  They have a 7:30 PM flight to LA and the redeye back to Boston.  Was supposed to be in SLC until the 20th.

She texted that she saw a "Coronavirus-free Lap Dances" sign in Vegas.


----------



## semipro

PaulOinMA said:


> She texted that she saw a "Coronavirus-free Lap Dances" sign in Vegas.


In my efforts to think about things other than Coronavirus I read this as "free Lap Dances".


----------



## PaulOinMA

I did, too, when I received her text.


----------



## Medic21

semipro said:


> In my efforts to think about things other than Coronavirus I read this as "free Lap Dances".


Quite possibly the infected one is giving free lap dances...

oh wait, you pay for those every day...


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Geisinger Danville does their own Corona testing ,did not say how many they have done ,just that none came back positive. They are currently treating 3 corona patients from out of the area.  News report tonight: quote" Wuhan and Hubei, respectively -- have not reported any new cases but recorded eight more deaths in the same area." Unquote


----------



## Seasoned Oak

mrd1995 said:


> North Western, PA still at $2.60ish with our first confirmed case in the county.


Tennesee gas $1.60 and going down. Crude $20 Barrel


----------



## SpaceBus

Seasoned Oak said:


> Tennesee gas $1.60 and going down. Crude $20 Barrel


$20 in 2020 was predicted by Opec, but nobody thought it would be this soon. I can live without petrol, but if the internet dies I'll be really sad.


----------



## Ashful

SpaceBus said:


> I can live without petrol, but if the internet dies I'll be really sad.


We’d better not let your old racing buddies hear that.


----------



## SpaceBus

Ashful said:


> We’d better not let your old racing buddies hear that.


I know, they wouldn't even recognize me anymore   
We burned like four tires on my 25th birthday. Used slicks of course!


----------



## vinny11950

Well if you wish to depress yourself, read this thread:


----------



## Sawset

​
Where can I go to get the Virus?
Just wondering?
I figure get it over with before planting season starts.
I have a lot of shop work to do yet. Everything is getting shut down and the hospitals are not busy yet.
The family is now home all the time.  Hunker down and get those antibodies built up.
Joking of course, but - hmm, they say 80% are going to get it at some point anyway.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Besides Food ,TP and Guns people are stocking up on critical supplies.








						Brewer's Outlet owner: 'Biggest day in beer sales history'
					

SUNBURY — Business has been booming at Brewer’s Outlet in Sunbury this week after the governor called for non-essential businesses to close their doors during the 2019 coronavirus outbreak.




					www.dailyitem.com
				




This place is about 20 minutes from me. I just got 5 cases there a month ago. Place was empty.


----------



## Woody Stover

AlbergSteve said:


> I'm sure it is. Hannity said everything's going to be alright and the president just a few days ago said corona was "under tremendous control".


That's reassuring; Those guys are two of the most "stable geniuses" we have.


----------



## Woody Stover

SpaceBus said:


> if the internet dies I'll be really sad.


Without Ryan Arnold on 93XRT, I'll go beserk in a couple of days and the death toll will be a lot higher.


----------



## peakbagger

The cynic in me is starting to rear its head. Looks like its within a couple of weeks of  a matter of writing the right check to the right doctor to get a quick test  $138 dollars a pop on line in a week or two and then a round of a treatment drug,hydroxychloroquine.  You and I will not be able to get it but I expect no doubt someone with a private doctor and premium insurance just needs to make the call to a colleague in Africa to get a treatment round sent over (screw the FDA compassionate drug routine). Sure it will still blow up in the US once the colege kids come back from spring break as carriers and will ripple through the rest of society and the poor parts of the world for months or years but as long as the important people know they dont really have to worry about it, they can start to make the plans on how to ultimately profit in private while expressing sympathy for the sick common folks.   No doubt both political parties are now running what strategies will work the best with respect to the November elections.


----------



## Sodbuster

Wife and I are staying put for two weeks, and then reassess. I'll spend my time cutting and splitting, and she can catch up on her reading.


----------



## Woody Stover

Sodbuster said:


> Wife and I are staying put for two weeks, and then reassess.


You might convert to a Democrat??


----------



## Sodbuster

Woody Stover said:


> You might convert to a Democrat??



LOL, not likely, although given the choices we've had lately on BOTH sides, I'm inclined to vote none of the above.


----------



## Woody Stover

With all this extra time, my stove glass finally got cleaned.  It's not getting cold enough to burn until Friday night; 70 right now.


----------



## Woody Stover

Woody Stover said:


> 93XRT


Now playing, Green Day "American Idiot."


----------



## black smoke signals

Anyone hear about any bank runs in your area? How is one to go to a grocery store (like Washington State) and get food and feel safe? This state is by far hardest hit state hopefully this will all pass before winter


----------



## AlbergSteve

peakbagger said:


> The cynic in me is starting to rear its head. Looks like its within a couple of weeks of  a matter of writing the right check to the right doctor to get a quick test  $138 dollars a pop on line in a week or two and then a round of a treatment drug,hydroxychloroquine.  You and I will not be able to get it but I expect no doubt someone with a private doctor and premium insurance just needs to make the call to a colleague in Africa to get a treatment round sent over (screw the FDA compassionate drug routine). Sure it will still blow up in the US once the colege kids come back from spring break as carriers and will ripple through the rest of society and the poor parts of the world for months or years but as long as the important people know they dont really have to worry about it, they can start to make the plans on how to ultimately profit in private while expressing sympathy for the sick common folks.   No doubt both political parties are now running what strategies will work the best with respect to the November elections.


That is the sad reality with your system, if you've got the cash, someone will give you the cure. But, even with lots of cash, your sociopathic government acting like Martin Shkreli can't buy *exclusivity*.


----------



## Woody Stover

black smoke signals said:


> Anyone hear about any bank runs in your area? How is one to go to a grocery store (like Washington State) and get food and feel safe? This state is by far hardest hit state hopefully this will all pass before winter


If you look a little crazy, like I do, you can carry cash and be pretty sure that no one will think about messing with you.


----------



## AlbergSteve

Woody Stover said:


> If you look a little crazy, like I do, you can carry cash and be pretty sure that no one will think about messing with you.


Lot of shops here aren't even taking cash, don't want to touch it- literally.


----------



## Ashful

PA just closed.  Yes, pretty much the whole state.  Governor is closing all "non-life-sustaining businesses" at 8pm tonight.

Time to move to ND or WV!


----------



## black smoke signals

Good idea let’s invent money laundering I will buy a new washer and put it in my front yard with a yard sign that says ____________


----------



## Sodbuster

AlbergSteve said:


> That is the sad reality with your system, if you've got the cash, someone will give you the cure. But, even with lots of cash, your sociopathic government acting like Martin Shkreli can't buy *exclusivity*.



Can you get premium treatment with your system with extra cash? My wife works in, and  is well connected in the medical field and cash and good insurance will not buy her premium treatment. Stop trying to start an us vs them class warfare type of mentality.  We are all in the same boat, all need food, and there is none. Many need healthcare, but the beds are filling up, this virus does not discriminate between rich and poor. I just saw on the news that a Dr. in Italy died because he refused to take an ICU bed away from a patient, even though he was next in line.


----------



## Sawset

black smoke signals said:


> How is one to go to a grocery store (like Washington State) and get food and feel safe?


There are carryout options at some supermarkets. Call ahead, they load, you go.


----------



## Sawset

Woody Stover said:


> my stove glass finally got cleaned.


Just got connected for remote login at work (work at home). If it comes to that. They're being proactive, but at the rate things are going, that's not saying much.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

Ashful said:


> PA just closed.  Yes, pretty much the whole state.  Governor is closing all "non-life-sustaining businesses" at 8pm tonight.
> 
> Time to move to ND or WV!


Luckily our company ( in Bellefonte) is life sustaining and we can remain open.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Some food prices spiking up , local markets getting brisk business.  Many local business,s shutting down.  State UC checks should be good for 6 months or more.  They usually extend that if needed.  This week there were more than 11,238 confirmed cases in the US, up from about 1,600 a week earlier.  Looks like testing is getting off the ground.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

AlbergSteve said:


> Lot of shops here aren't even taking cash, don't want to touch it- literally.


Keep the change is getting common.


----------



## PaulOinMA

Supermarkets are opening early for senior-only shopping.  My price Chopper opens 6 AM - 7 AM for seniors.  Setting the alarm for 5:45.

I usually do some grocery shopping  n Friday after 7:30 AM coffee at Panera with the old guys from my wife's former church.  Can't sit in Panera now, so I'll just get up early and go to Price Chopper. 



Sodbuster said:


> … LOL, not likely, although given the choices we've had lately on BOTH sides, I'm inclined to vote none of the above …



Yup!  I turned 18 in 1976.  2016 was the first year I didn't vote for a presidential candidate.  That was the best this country could do?  Neither deserved my vote.

I'm a Republican in MA, so my vote is pretty meaningless anyway.


----------



## Woody Stover

Sodbuster said:


> Stop trying to start an us vs them class warfare type of mentality.  We are all in the same boat, all need food...virus does not discriminate between rich and poor. I just saw on the news that a Dr. in Italy died because he refused to take an ICU bed away from a patient, even though he was next in line.


The way I see it, throughout history it's always been "them or us." People whose personalities motivate them to seek power and control will put a lot of effort into acquiring the tools to have those, the main tools being money or resources. Unlike the good doctor, who might have different motivations, I don't expect most of those personality types to be willing to offer up their lives to help a fellow being. Heck, a lot of the rich bass turds scarcely make any charitable donations compared to those of average means, even though they control most of the wealth.


Seasoned Oak said:


> Some food prices spiking up , local markets getting brisk business.  Many local business,s shutting down.


Once the po' folks run out of cash, there will be plenty of food for everybody else.


----------



## peakbagger

It pretty easy to clean surfaces and bills with a UVC lamp. Due to past concerns with TB, or viruses or bacteria being introduced or recirculated in public buildings, many HVAC systems already have UV banks in the ducts. The tubes do need to be changed on occasion as they do wear out. The down side with them are they have to be set up so they are shielded from sight as they can burn the corneas and cause something similar to weld flash.  Early on in the epidemic I saw enterprising folks were building cell phone sterlizers and charging a bundle for them despite being  just a reflective box with a couple of UVC LEDs.


----------



## Sodbuster

Woody Stover said:


> The way I see it, throughout history it's always been "them or us." People whose personalities motivate them to seek power and control will put a lot of effort into acquiring the tools to have those, the main tools being money or resources. Unlike the good doctor, who might have different motivations, I don't expect most of those personality types to be willing to offer up their lives to help a fellow being. Heck, a lot of the rich bass turds scarcely make any charitable donations compared to those of average means, even though they control most of the wealth.
> 
> Once the po' folks run out of cash, there will be plenty of food for everybody else.



Thanks Woody, the reason this raises my hackles is that my youngest daughter was exposed to a confirmed case of Covid-19 at work; today she spiked a temperature and had a cough and found it hard to breath. Our family Dr. sent her to get tested at a drive through testing station that had been set up at a local hospital. Even with our "good" insurance it will be 5 days before she finds out. My oldest daughter is a Pediatric Intensive Care Nurse and volunteered to help staff the RICU (Regional Infectious Containment Unit) which is where the Covid patients will be housed. My wife is also a nurse that works in close proximity to the airway during surgeries and is at risk for droplet and possible  aerosolized Covid.  Our stress levels are very high right now, which is why it does me good to just go out in the woods and cut wood, rather than sit around the house and worry.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

US running out of antibiotics and other life saving  drugs.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-human-drug-shortage-food-drug-administration/

Cuz its always a good idea to outsource critical life saving supplies if its a quarter cheaper somewhere else.


----------



## begreen

AlbergSteve said:


> That is the sad reality with your system, if you've got the cash, someone will give you the cure. But, even with lots of cash, your sociopathic government acting like Martin Shkreli can't buy *exclusivity*.


I'm afraid this will cause deaths. Locally our hospital staff at a major key hospital have been told to wear bandanas by the CDC due to a critical shortage. This is the hospital where my son's GF is fighting pneumonia. We can build and store thousands of unused tanks in the desert just to keep some pork flowing but we can't and haven't stocked the basics for a health emergency. Meanwhile, BYD, the world's largest electric car manufacturer, has converted a factory in China to make masks by the million. Europe is getting them but apparently American exceptionalism is keeping us from buying them stat. I am not a happy camper here.


----------



## begreen

Seasoned Oak said:


> US running out of antibiotics and other life saving  drugs.
> https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-human-drug-shortage-food-drug-administration/
> 
> Cuz its always a good idea to outsource critical life saving supplies if its a quarter cheaper somewhere else.


Supply chain disruptions are going to get worse. Don't get sick. We have become a nation of just in time supply chains with little fall-back plan for when there is a major disruption in the supply. I hope if there are any lessons learned they will be to strengthen community resilience by increasing more local supply.


----------



## CaptSpiff

Seasoned Oak said:


> US running out of antibiotics and other life saving  drugs.
> Cuz its always a good idea to outsource critical life saving supplies if its a quarter cheaper somewhere else.


Remember back in 2000 when the enlightened globalists pushed for China to be given "Most Favored Nation Status".
Pretty much the same crew who put together NAFTA in '92. Yup, the R's wrote it and the D's carried it thru. 
All cut from the same cloth.


----------



## Woody Stover

PaulOinMA said:


> Supermarkets are opening early for senior-only shopping.  My price Chopper opens 6 AM - 7 AM for seniors.  Setting the alarm for 5:45.
> n
> 
> I usually do some grocery shopping  n Friday after 7:30 AM coffee at Panera with the old guys from my wife's former church.  Can't sit i
> Panera now, so I'll just get up early and go to Price Chopper.
> 
> 
> 
> Yup!  I turned 18 in 1976.  2016 was the first year I didn't vote for a presidential candidate.  That was the best this country could do?  Neither deserved my vote.
> 
> I'm a Republican in MA, so my vote is pretty meaningless anyway.





CaptSpiff said:


> enlightened globalists pushed for China to be given "Most Favored Nation Status".
> Pretty much the same crew who put together NAFTA in '92. Yup, the R's wrote it and the D's carried it thru.
> All cut from the same cloth.


The corporations are globalists as well. They operate without much regard for national borders or the people of those nations; They are all about maximizing profits. Governments and politicians of the nations are just their puppets.


----------



## Sodbuster

CaptSpiff said:


> Remember back in 2000 when the enlightened globalists pushed for China to be given "Most Favored Nation Status".
> Pretty much the same crew who put together NAFTA in '92. Yup, the R's wrote it and the D's carried it thru.
> All cut from the same cloth.



This is not a new problem, but it is one that can be corrected. You are correct this started with NAFTA, and Ross Perot, as nutty as he sounded was right. If NAFTA was passed, we would hear a giant sucking sound as jobs and manufacturing left the US. If we are smart we will fix the problem, if not, we are doomed to repeat it. We should make all essential drugs and drug paraphernalia here in the US.


----------



## begreen

Sawset said:


> There are carryout options at some supermarkets. Call ahead, they load, you go.


Yes, that's what our local stores are offering.


----------



## begreen

Sodbuster said:


> This is not a new problem, but it is one that can be corrected. You are correct this started with NAFTA, and Ross Perot, as nutty as he sounded was right. If NAFTA was passed, we would hear a giant sucking sound as jobs and manufacturing left the US. If we are smart we will fix the problem, if not, we are doomed to repeat it. We should make all essential drugs and drug paraphernalia here in the US.


Tighter local supply chains are more resilient. There is power and value to local sourcing. Local supply chains are also effective steps toward decarbonization.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

New things unfolding daily. Some  promising new drug treatments. The anti malaria drug looks interesting.  Im betting they find a treatment soon ,not a cure like a corona vacination shot but a drug treatment.  THe whole world is working on it.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

begreen said:


> Tighter local supply chains are more resilient.


3d printers making some of those supplies right now.


----------



## AlbergSteve

Seasoned Oak said:


> 3d printers making some of those supplies right now.


Unless they're being *sued *not to. And closer to *home*...


----------



## AlbergSteve

Sodbuster said:


> Can you get premium treatment with your system with extra cash?


Nope, that's my point. Doesn't matter if you're a homeless person, a burger flipper, under employed, or a millionaire, I can leave my wallet at home.


----------



## semipro

My wife and I just had a conversation that led me to a new realization; as a household with two salaried incomes its incumbent on us to help those that work hourly or otherwise to make ends meet.  I encourage others here in the same situation to think similarly.  
In our case its a personal trainer/dog walker/whatever who does odd jobs to pay the bills. We decided tonight to engage her, and perhaps others to help us with things needing to be done at our home/property.  We're not rich by most measures but we can certainly afford to share with other hard-working Americans to get us all through this.  It serves the greater "good".


----------



## semipro

It's strange how the same things that threaten you may also bring you together.
My wife and I typically spend Thursday nights alone. 
Tonight, both my sons showed up, one with his girlfriend to share dinner. Our neighbors' young children (3 and 5) showed up followed by their mother.  Pretty soon we had 8 people (aka potential Petri dishes) in our kitchen socializing along with our 4 dogs and cat.  
So much for social distancing.  I guess if we're going to go we'll go happy.


----------



## fbelec

just here on the local news there was a hospital that asked the tv news people to put out on the news that if you have a 3d printer they want to talk to you about making masks


----------



## blacktail

black smoke signals said:


> Anyone hear about any bank runs in your area? How is one to go to a grocery store (like Washington State) and get food and feel safe? This state is by far hardest hit state hopefully this will all pass before winter


I went to a grocery store friday at 10:30pm and it was an eye opener. The parking lot was full with lots of bare shelves and long lines inside. Luckily I was only getting a few things and there was no line at self checkout.
I went to a different store last night, again at 10:30, and it was a lot better. Very few cars in the parking lot. While not at their normal level, the shelves were stocked ok. Things like rice and pasta were empty. The store did a good job of getting things out. For big sellers they stacked cases out on the sales floor or even had pallets of product out. My shopping list was pretty short (I needed diet coke!) but I picked up $90 worth of stuff for myself just because, and a few things to drop of at my folks' house.
No unusual behavior to report from my trips, but I heard there was a fight outside one grocery store the other morning when people were waiting for the doors to open. 
I carry protection all the time anyway, so no change in that department for me. 
Police departments have let it out that they're not responding to property crimes if they can help it. Combine that with a lot of businesses being closed, and things could get interesting.


----------



## Woody Stover

semipro said:


> both my sons showed up, one with his girlfriend to share dinner. Our neighbors' young children (3 and 5) showed up followed by their mother.  Pretty soon we had 8 people (aka potential Petri dishes) in our kitchen socializing along with our 4 dogs and cat.
> So much for social distancing.  I guess if we're going to go we'll go happy.


You are clearly only semi-pro in the plague-stopping department.


----------



## peakbagger

A friend of mine works for a company that owns large amounts of warehouse space. For various reasons some of it does not get leased out usually  because they are planning to rip it down and replace it at some point. They will lend this space to non profits on occasion. One of these large warehouses was used by medical non profit that handled outdated medical equipment and supplies to be sent to the third world and disasters.  I didnt see it at its full capacity but even partially empty if was impressive. Rows and rows of pallets of unopended cases of supplys and obsolete medical equipment. Medical equipment like respirators have an expiration date and get obsolete. If its not needed it still needs to be maintained, upgraded and eventually discarded. Someone has to pay for that. Same with medical supplies like masks. They can be brand new in a sealed box but out of date. If they get used in the US after the expiration date someone can get sued. For infection control almost anything in contact with a patient is disposable and the best way to make it is with plastics and they deteriorate. Usually face masks have resilient seals on the edges to seal between the face and the mask, they get old and deteriorate. They usually use stretching straps to snug them up, the straps deteriorate. The companies who make the products do not want to get sued so they are very conservative about how they set the expiration dates assuming the worst case.

So where does this stuff go? The really old stuff gets donated to very poor countries while  the better stuff goes to places like Mexico, South and Central America. Keep that in mind when you read the articles about moving to another country to retire due to cheap living and medical costs. The same thing applies for those  who live along the southern border who drive across the border to get cheap healthcare. Sure 99% of the time it works out but if it doesnt good luck suing someone.  Its pretty well expected that in third world countries the medicines available are frequently expired stock from first world counties or animal medicine.

I ran into someone once that worked for a lawyer that specialized in medical malpractice and one of their many jobs prepping for a trial was to to subpoena hospital records and review the expiration dates of everything that possibly touched the patient. Therefore most medical facilities practice just in time inventory to make sure their stock is always in date. Their suppliers are in the same situation, if they have a warehouse full of product if its doesn't get used, it gets donated or thrown away. Someone has to pay for that. In the case of the US the "someones" are mix of the government for medicare and private insurance. There is a lot of pressure to reduce costs so the best way to avoid the waste 99.999% of the time is keep the inventory low.

The military has the same issues, they are expected to maintain readiness supplies to support a future war but things get old and expire so they need to constantly rotate inventory. Its a major logistic issue.  The government does things like storing equipment in underground limestone mines to try to stretch out the life of supplies but that means its hard to get to the front. There has to be supplies forward deployed near the fronts whether its used or not so much of it get disposed off when it goes out of date. One of the big jobs when the military clears out of theatre is dispose of the forward deployed supplies. They try to give it away to the local governments but much of it gets bulldozed in pits and burned rather than allow it to get in the hands of the enemy When I lived down near the coast the Navy had some converted cargo ships that constantly and randomly circled around the Gulf of Maine full of rapid deployment supplies. It would dock every so often and the supplies would be rotated out. If there was an incident somewhere they would head out at full power with enough supplies and equipment to support a marine unit for some initial period of time when they landed.

So the current system has its limitations in times like these. Would the taxpayers support keeping large warehouses and manufacturing facilities for decades with the output going to the landfill 99.99% of the time?. I expect if they did, there would be politicians screaming about government waste. BTW this sort of planning was put in place during the cold war. The cost for strategic equipment would be subsidized by the government for private industry. There would be permanent marking on the equipment that it was partially funded by the goverment abd was subject to re purposing for national defense in case of emergency.  I remember old Dodge powerwagons released to communities for firefighting use with those stickers and also saw them on old machine tools.

The far more prudent approach is have plans in place to ramp up production and have supply chains in place when world events line up. This requires a strong government support and planning  in advance and as publicized this was not a priority for the current administration. No doubt the delayed response by the adminstration to this event will be analysed for long time.


----------



## SpaceBus

begreen said:


> Tighter local supply chains are more resilient. There is power and value to local sourcing. Local supply chains are also effective steps toward decarbonization.


I forsee goods becoming more expensive and more durable in the future. The expense coming from cleaner manufacturing and durable because the goods cost so much to start. I'm already planning on making all the things I want in the future. Even if things normalize after all this, it won't be the same. This quarantine will probably continue on for several months, so I have plenty of time to learn how to spin fiber, carve bows, and tan hides.


----------



## Grizzerbear

My biggest fear with this whole ordeal is our healthcare workers. My wife is a pregnant r/n at our local clinic. Obviously they are busy as hell and I pray that she makes it through unscathed for herself and the baby. Makes a man feel guilty for having kids in these kind of times. God bless all the folks out there putting theirselves at risk for the needs of others.


----------



## vinny11950

They told me if a socialist like Bernie got the nomination the stock market would crash and the grocery store shelves would be empty....


----------



## SpaceBus

vinny11950 said:


> They told me if a socialist like Bernie got the nomination the stock market would crash and the grocery store shelves would be empty....



I'm pretty sure we will be some form of socialist after this shakes out. My brother in law is essentially paying his employees to stay home while he continues working. I think eventually all non essential personnel will be paid to stay home until this passes or folks get tired of staying home.


----------



## MoDoug

We live near a large flood control lake managed by the Corp of Engineers, Mark Twain Lake. It's an 18,000 acre lake at normal pool, surrounded by 54,000 acres of public lands, no one owns lake side property here. The Corp shut down the offices, visitor center and camp grounds which is no surprise, but what caught everyone off guard is they also shut down all the Corp boat ramps on the lake, currently there are 2 state ramps still open, and there's talk of shutting them down. These ramps are never manned and you rarely see any officials there, occasionally you'll see rangers, highway patrol and conservation agents. It makes no obvious sense to people that want to get out on the lake and get away from people, it's great social distancing. They obviously have reasons that in spite of several inquiries have not been revealed. 

In the big scheme of things this is petty. We have a few friends that are in the medical field and they are the ones on the front line of this, I really feel bad for them, not only the long hard hours, but also living with the fear of getting it themselves and possibly spreading it.  But for people wanting to keep some normal semblance of life closing boat ramps and access to public lands seems unnecessary. This virus is affecting a lot more than anyone would have thought.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

blacktail said:


> Police departments have let it out that they're not responding to property crimes if they can help it. Combine that with a lot of businesses being closed, and things could get interesting.


Not a good idea to advertise that fact.  Like putting out the welcome mat for trouble.


----------



## SpaceBus

MoDoug said:


> We live near a large flood control lake managed by the Corp of Engineers, Mark Twain Lake. It's an 18,000 acre lake at normal pool, surrounded by 54,000 acres of public lands, no one owns lake side property here. The Corp shut down the offices, visitor center and camp grounds which is no surprise, but what caught everyone off guard is they also shut down all the Corp boat ramps on the lake, currently there are 2 state ramps still open, and there's talk of shutting them down. These ramps are never manned and you rarely see any officials there, occasionally you'll see rangers, highway patrol and conservation agents. It makes no obvious sense to people that want to get out on the lake and get away from people, it's great social distancing. They obviously have reasons that in spite of several inquiries have not been revealed.
> 
> In the big scheme of things this is petty. We have a few friends that are in the medical field and they are the ones on the front line of this, I really feel bad for them, not only the long hard hours, but also living with the fear of getting it themselves and possibly spreading it.  But for people wanting to keep some normal semblance of life closing boat ramps and access to public lands seems unnecessary. This virus is affecting a lot more than anyone would have thought.


They probably don't want to have to worry about drunk dudes falling into the lake and needing to be rescued.


----------



## peakbagger

NH allowed a couple of ski areas the option to stay open. Ski areas have large common spaces that are jam packed on ski days. The owners tend to under invest in things like restrooms. The staff tends to do what they can during the rush and swamp things out later. The slopes were allowed to open under special rules but they closed down the lodges and asked people to social distance. After two weekday days the governor shut them down as a large number of customers ignored the rules and were abusing the staff for following the rules. Now the staff is out of job and the a**holes who caused it are probably somewhere else acting as Typhoid Mary's.


----------



## MoDoug

SpaceBus said:


> They probably don't want to have to worry about drunk dudes falling into the lake and needing to be rescued.



With no official explanation, there's a lot speculating. Emergency response, as you mention SpaceBus, is certainly one possibility and another possible reason is to keep people that travel a couple hours to get here and have to make stops along the way for gas, bait, beer to keep from interacting with others. From what I've read (unverified by me), some other Corp lakes are keeping ramps open and even waiving ramp fees. Crazy times, hope the best of health for everyone.


----------



## Ashful

semipro said:


> My wife and I just had a conversation that led me to a new realization; as a household with two salaried incomes its incumbent on us to help those that work hourly or otherwise to make ends meet.  I encourage others here in the same situation to think similarly.


Yes, this.  As much as it may hurt while watching your portfolio plummet and uncertain of your own future, it’s important to continue supporting those that have more immediate needs, who may rely on you, to the degree they will accept it.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Ashful said:


> Yes, this.  As much as it may hurt while watching your portfolio plummet and uncertain of your own future, it’s important to continue supporting those that have more immediate needs, who may rely on you, to the degree they will accept it.


Yes very important. Within the last 2 days iv offered 3 of my tenants who just lost their jobs , jobs working with me at the same rate they were previously making for as long as they need it ,. I also assured them they could pay their house payments when and if able, no pressure. Some were quite frightened by the whole thing,and have small kids so i hope i was of some comfort in a very difficult time. Im sure not worrying about a roof over your head is helpful.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

A local whiskey maker stepping up as well.








						Coronavirus Latest: Revivalist Spirits In Chester County Stepping Up To Produce Hand Sanitizer Amid COVID-19 Crisis
					

Eyewitness News spoke with Revivalist Spirits in Chester County on why they decided to make the switch.




					philadelphia.cbslocal.com
				




Not only that, but they are giving the hand sanitizer away, NOT selling it.


----------



## kennyp2339

I just wanted to say thank you to everyone that has posted relevant info on this topic, please keep the comments coming, the more we share our experiences the better off we are as whole.
For myself, as a electric utility provider, I'm labelled essential, I have made some personal sacrifices over the past 2 weeks, isolation is my friend here, I basically go to work, go home and then back to work, I avoid human to human contact, we've implemented new work rules that hopefully mitigate as much human contact as possible while providing reliable electric, at this time we're all willing to step up and make personal sacrifices of comforts for the greater good.


----------



## CenterTree

SpaceBus said:


> .... or folks get tired of staying home.


When people get tired of staying home, they will venture out, then that is when we will quickly see Marshall Law implemented. (if not sooner).  

 I work in an "essential" job. It baffles me to see customers coming in all day long and buying just one tiny item then coming in again the next day for yet another SINGLE item.  

 It's like driving 4 hours in a sand storm to get to the fountain, only to take just a quick sip of water.  Silly people.


----------



## kennyp2339

CenterTree said:


> I work in an "essential" job. It baffles me to see customers coming in all day long and buying just one tiny item then coming in again the next day for yet another SINGLE item.


I have the same sentiments, to many people out and about during this time of needing isolation, I don't have a choice so I have to be out, you would be amazed at all the traffic out on the roads, so many people just driving around, going from here to there, I personally think we're screwed in the coming weeks, people just don't know what it means to isolate.


----------



## SpaceBus

kennyp2339 said:


> I just wanted to say thank you to everyone that has posted relevant info on this topic, please keep the comments coming, the more we share our experiences the better off we are as whole.
> For myself, as a electric utility provider, I'm labelled essential, I have made some personal sacrifices over the past 2 weeks, isolation is my friend here, I basically go to work, go home and then back to work, I avoid human to human contact, we've implemented new work rules that hopefully mitigate as much human contact as possible while providing reliable electric, at this time we're all willing to step up and make personal sacrifices of comforts for the greater good.


Thank you for doing your job. People like you are certainly essential and I hope they are paying you well, at this point nothing is too much.


----------



## paulnlee

That's weird. Here Flemington is deserted except for the day laborers at Steve's and the roads are free of traffic. Most stores are closed.


----------



## Sodbuster

kennyp2339 said:


> I have the same sentiments, to many people out and about during this time of needing isolation, I don't have a choice so I have to be out, you would be amazed at all the traffic out on the roads, so many people just driving around, going from here to there, I personally think we're screwed in the coming weeks, people just don't know what it means to isolate.



I see a lot of people out and about as well, and one of them would be me. I'm delivering food to family members that are sick, old or self quarantined. Also you be very surprised at the number of people it takes to keep a hospital running, if you have a large ones in your area. So are there people that are out, and shouldn't be, yes. But some are working at critical jobs just like you. In our area alone, we have St. Joes, University of Michigan, Providence Hospital, Henry Ford Hospital, Ascension Genesys Hospital   and others, not including Dr's offices.


----------



## Grizzerbear

I assume my job is essential. I work for the street and water services. Missouri citizens havent been made to stay home for two weeks like a lot of other areas but most cities are enacting bans of gatherings of 50 or more and some 10 or more. It's very unorganized really and I can't see how it will make an impact until more stringent measures are put in place. Here they have closed schools until the first of april....but many daycares are still open so it seems to defeat the purpose. Meanwhile the covid 19 cases nearly doubled here overnight and the first death was in Columbia I believe two days ago. It's kind of like go at your own risk mentality really.


----------



## CenterTree

paulnlee said:


> That's weird. Here Flemington is deserted except for the day laborers at Steve's and the roads are free of traffic. Most stores are closed.


To me it seems so simple (if not easy) to JUST STAY HOME. 

  I get it if you need to work.  If you need groceries.  If you need medical care.  If you need to take supplies to an elder person, etc.
               Other than those, STAY HOME !  

We cannot stop this virus, but WE CAN SLOW IT and give our health care workers a chance to help us and those in need.
 But we need to help ourselves first, by staying away from others for the time being.

Kids are off school and yet yesterday evening on the way home from work, 
 I saw about a DOZEN or more teenagers playing basketball.


----------



## CenterTree

Grizzerbear said:


> It's kind of like go at your own risk mentality really.


Yeah, and the worst part of that is it is NOT "_your own risk_". It is the risk of OTHERS in society.
I think people forget that they can be CARRIERS of this bug even if they don't care if they get it themselves.


----------



## SidecarFlip

SpaceBus said:


> I'm going to spend my time in quarantine learning how to make traps and tools to eat local wildlife.


My hunting buddy makes excellent tree rat stew.  If anyone wants the recipe, I'll be happy to post it up....


----------



## SidecarFlip

vinny11950 said:


> And this!  There is a reason Governors are freaking out.





Personally, I don't buy into prediction charts.  Their just that, predictions.  I buy into hard real time data and that isn't.  All that is,  is fear mongering  If you buy into the 'sky is falling scenario', you become part of the problem. not the solution.

Last time I looked, the sky is still up there...


----------



## CenterTree

SidecarFlip said:


> My hunting buddy makes excellent tree rat stew.  If anyone wants the recipe, I'll be happy to post it up....


 I gotta wonder if now is the best time to be talking about eating uncommon, wild animals.


----------



## CenterTree

SidecarFlip said:


> Personally, I don't buy into prediction charts.  Their just that, predictions.  I buy into hard real time data and that isn't.  All that is,  is fear mongering  If you buy into the 'sky is falling scenario', you become part of the problem. not the solution.
> 
> Last time I looked, the sky is still up there...


Yeah, as my pap used to say...
" If you spend all your time looking up to see if the sky is falling, some bird is gonna $hit in your eye".


----------



## festerw

CenterTree said:


> Yeah, and the worst part of that is it is NOT "_your own risk_". It is the risk of OTHERS in society.
> I think people forget that they can be CARRIERS of this bug even if they don't care if they get it themselves.



This is what we had a hard time explaining to our daughter when she asked why they cancelled school, why she couldn't have friends over/go to their houses.

It's easy to explain but a hard concept for 12 year old to grasp.


----------



## tadmaz

I just got furloughed for 2 weeks, a few weeks out from now.  I expect even companies that are deemed "essential" will do things like furloughing to get by.


----------



## Woody Stover

Ashful said:


> it may hurt while watching your portfolio plummet


Looks like that dead cat's not even gonna bounce, it'll just become a large, thin spot on the pavement.  


Seasoned Oak said:


> A local whiskey maker stepping up as well.


Uh oh, forgot to have my wife check how the bourbon stocks when she went to the store the other day. _That_ supply chain should hold up, though.. 


Grizzerbear said:


> It's kind of like go at your own risk mentality really.


Even those that aren't that worried about it because they are healthy might regret taking it so lightly; I'm hearing that it'll kick yo' ass for a couple of weeks.  And they haven't fully accounted for the devastating effects on the economy that will certainly affect them in the near future.


SidecarFlip said:


> Personally, I don't buy into prediction charts...I buy into hard real time data and that isn't.  All that is,  is fear mongering...
> Last time I looked, the sky is still up there...


If you look at these charts plotting its progression so far, it's pretty easy to see where it's all going. Good luck with your optimism, but I think you'll be disappointed shortly.."the sky" is where these curves are heading. 








						U.S. state coronavirus curves show many could be close behind New York
					

New York now leads the nation in confirmed COVID-19 cases, but the latest data shows the coronavirus curve for several other states follows a similar pattern.




					www.usatoday.com


----------



## johneh

My wife was told to go home so as not to come in contact with 
anyone who may be infected (Banker full salary ) because I had an operation 2 weeks ago 
so I am at risk. Number one son retail (Bell Canada) full salary and his commission 
average over 2 years per week. Number two son  HVAC( heating ventilation and air conditioning)
Stay home emergency call-outs only full pay. Around here employers are looking after there employees 
and their families


----------



## RFarm

Woody Stover said:


> Do you have a way to make toilet tissue? My wife went to the store yesterday, and there were empty sections in every aisle. No TP left, and we're down to two rolls. Luckily, they are substantial two-ply rolls.  We have some nice, big Sycamore leaves in the woods, but they are getting a bit crusty now, since they've been lying there since last fall.


Can’t make toilet paper but can make a redneck bidet out of a garden hose.  Better than nothing and quite invigorating!


----------



## begreen

SidecarFlip said:


> Personally, I don't buy into prediction charts.  Their just that, predictions.  I buy into hard real time data and that isn't.  All that is,  is fear mongering  If you buy into the 'sky is falling scenario', you become part of the problem. not the solution.
> 
> Last time I looked, the sky is still up there...


Take 5 minutes to read through this posting. It explains how this is based on hard data and not speculation.




__





						Corona Virus
					

SF, As someone who most likely is not in good health, your response was more emotional than logical.  Anyone with the capacity to think should realize , and a trip through most care centers would demonstrate it, many are kept alive artificially.  Only someone who was only using their head for a...




					www.hearth.com
				




And then there is the simple fact of how woefully unprepared we are. One doesn't need tea leaves to see how this is evolving.








						US virus testing faces new headwind: Lab supply shortages
					

WASHINGTON (AP) — First, some of the coronavirus tests didn't work. Then there weren't enough to go around...




					apnews.com


----------



## NickW

Rumor has it the national guard has been deployed to the Washington County fairgrounds in WI. We are in decent shape at my house foodwise and have 7 rolls of TP yet in the closet which is several weeks worth, but I hope to procure some more before it runs out so we don't have to resort to leaves and pinecones.

Milk is a staple here, but not "necessary". We can survive on water. Freezer is full, plenty of sugar and flour if I had to make bread, still in observation and isolation mode as much as possible. Hoping it doesn't become any more panic driven... I should probably get more gas for the generator...

Keep it level folks and be safe!


----------



## SidecarFlip

tadmaz said:


> I just got furloughed for 2 weeks, a few weeks out from now.  I expect even companies that are deemed "essential" will do things like furloughing to get by.


I farm, I'm on self imposed winter lay off.


----------



## SidecarFlip

CenterTree said:


> I gotta wonder if now is the best time to be talking about eating uncommon, wild animals.




I don't consider tree rats uncommon and we do cook them well....  Now snakes, bats and etc, nope.


----------



## NickW

I'd eat snake, or gator, or just about anything else... It all tastes like chicken, right? Just need the colonel's secret blend... I hope the processor calls saying my other 2 deer are ready for pickup soon!


----------



## johneh




----------



## SidecarFlip

NickW said:


> I'd eat snake, or gator, or just about anything else... It all tastes like chicken, right? Just need the colonel's secret blend... I hope the processor calls saying my other 2 deer are ready for pickup soon!


Mine are in the freezer along with a Nebraska Mule Deer, some New Mexico Elk and New England Black bear.  Grocery stores might be empty of meat but no shortage of meat here.  Frozen whole chickens too.  TP is another issue however and the leaves aren't out yet.  Soon as we have leaves the TP issue is gone.


----------



## SidecarFlip

johneh said:


>



I don't think they will make Platinum...


----------



## peakbagger

For those who are worried about extended supply chains for toilet paper, it really does not apply. I was in the tissue industry for part of my career and keep an eye on the industry out of general interest. Toilet paper and tissue in general has a fundamental problem that its fluffy and full of air.  Unlike most commodities the truck is filled up with volume long before its at its max weight. This raises the shipping cost and thus its very rarely imported as the shipping and handling makes imported product noncompetitive.  If a company is trying to ship the maximum amount of product in the shortest possible time, shipping toilet paper is not high on the list. With a ongoing shortage of trucks and drivers, there is lot more profit per load shipping heavier product.


----------



## festerw

peakbagger said:


> For those who are worried about extended supply chains for toilet paper, it really does not apply. I was in the tissue industry for part of my career and keep an eye on the industry out of general interest. Toilet paper and tissue in general has a fundamental problem that its fluffy and full of air.  Unlike most commodities the truck is filled up with volume long before its at its max weight. This raises the shipping cost and thus its very rarely imported as the shipping and handling makes imported product noncompetitive.  If a company is trying to ship the maximum amount of product in the shortest possible time, shipping toilet paper is not high on the list. With a ongoing shortage of trucks and drivers, there is lot more profit per load shipping heavier product.



Also should be noted even though stores may be low on supply local janitorial suppliers probably have plenty.  May not be your quadruple ply, knit, air fluffed, Jasmine scented shenanigans but it'll do.


----------



## NickW

We'd make do... just finally got the missus to go to 100grit 2 ply instead of 60grit 1 ply last time we bought it...


----------



## NickW

SidecarFlip said:


> Mine are in the freezer along with a Nebraska Mule Deer, some New Mexico Elk and New England Black bear.  Grocery stores might be empty of meat but no shortage of meat here.  Frozen whole chickens too.  TP is another issue however and the leaves aren't out yet.  Soon as we have leaves the TP issue is gone.



Jealous! Do you ever make venison Wellington with your backstraps?


----------



## SidecarFlip

NickW said:


> Jealous! Do you ever make venison Wellington with your backstraps?


No, got a recipe?


----------



## SidecarFlip

peakbagger said:


> For those who are worried about extended supply chains for toilet paper, it really does not apply. I was in the tissue industry for part of my career and keep an eye on the industry out of general interest. Toilet paper and tissue in general has a fundamental problem that its fluffy and full of air.  Unlike most commodities the truck is filled up with volume long before its at its max weight. This raises the shipping cost and thus its very rarely imported as the shipping and handling makes imported product noncompetitive.  If a company is trying to ship the maximum amount of product in the shortest possible time, shipping toilet paper is not high on the list. With a ongoing shortage of trucks and drivers, there is lot more profit per load shipping heavier product.




All well and good but it leaves me with a dirty butt....  Not good at all.  I do have corn cobs available however.....


----------



## SidecarFlip

I do have to say, my wife bought a full case of Scott Paper towels on the .net last week, enough for 2 months and interestingly, all the printing on the wrappers is in French.  I don'rtcare, just found that interesting.  They came from Florida btw.

If we could swing that with TP, all would be good, here at the farm.


----------



## NickW

SidecarFlip said:


> No, got a recipe?


Don't cut backstraps into steaks or chops, cut them into 1 1/2-2 pound chunks. Grill them both sides but you don't cook all the way through - sear & brown on the grill, put it on a plate and into the freezer for about 20 minutes to chill the outside, wrap in crescent rolls and bake. The original recipe called for filo dough, but I use the crescent rolls. Best venison ever! I make mushrooms & onions, hash browns and green beans to go with...


----------



## SidecarFlip

NickW said:


> Don't cut backstraps into steaks or chops, cut them into 1 1/2-2 pound chunks. Grill them both sides but you don't cook all the way through - sear & brown on the grill, put it on a plate and into the freezer for about 20 minutes to chill the outside, wrap in crescent rolls and bake. The original recipe called for filo dough, but I use the crescent rolls. Best venison ever! I make mushrooms & onions, hash browns and green beans to go with...


Just printed it, I'll give it a shot...  Thanks


----------



## Highbeam

Yep, I’m deemed essential too. I worry that everybody thinks they are essential but I wonder how true that is.


----------



## SidecarFlip

I'm essential as well, essential to my wife, my dog,  the cattle, her one nag and the 40 cats we have roaming around.

Went down the road to my buddy's seed operation and brought home 2 gravity wagons of corn I was gifted this year for next year.  I can auger in 2 wagons full and that tops my grain tank off but there is more in supersacks so I'll bring them down and put them in the barn.  Will be nice food for the mice and maybe they will leave my tractors alone.  I have 3 cats that live in there but they aren't interested in the mice because my wife feeds them too much...oh well.  Getting 14 tons total this time.

Home stuff is moderately boring but I'm working on farm equipment anyway.  Getting ready for spring.

Interestingly, with the relaxed DOT regs (due to the virus), any hauler hauling foodstuffs is now exempt from the HOS rules, don't even have to log at all, just run, like the old days.  Can run heavy too.  weigh stations closed, just run the coops and hammer down.

The guy (farmer and very good friend of 30 years) I get the corn from has his own fleet of trucks and trailers and seed corn and soybeans are heavy.  Normally, he loads 45,000 pounds in his trailers to be legal, now, he fills them up.  Told me that if they don't look like they are going to break in 2, it's all good with him.  seed corn and soybean seed is considered foodstuffs and is exempt under the relaxed regs.

I'll probably run hopper bottoms for him this fall if he's short on drivers.  We always fill them up anyway, only going from the field (combine opr picker, seed corn has to be picked with a special and expensive machine) to the dryers on his property so weight is never an issue.  You can get over 30 ton of corn in a 40 foot hopper (depending on RM) and 40 ton of beans.  Nice thing about beans is you don't dry them.  You take them off in the fall and they go directly in the grain tanks.  From the tanks, they go to the sorting building where they are cleaned, sorted by size and bagged on an automated bagging line, dated and stacked on pallets or put in supersacks for shipment.  Each supersack weighs 2.5 ton.  

Seed corn is different.  90% of the time it comes off 'wet'.  Wet is anything above 15%RM.  It has to be dried down to 15 or less before you can tank it, or it will mold.  Seed corn is taken down to 10--12%RM, sorted for size, cleaned and screened and some is innoculated and some isn't depending on end use.  Then it is bagged and palletized or put in supersacks as well.  I get the off grade stuff or the stuff that won't germinate.  Corn in storage has to be 'germ' tested monthly.  If it won't germinate above 95%, it's deemed unsaleable and it comes to me for my corn burner and his, he heats with corn like I do and there is always plenty to burn.  The residual goes for animal feed.

Is there money in the seed business?  I guess there is in as much as 1- 56 pound bag of hybrid GMO seed corn sells for around 300 bucks which sounds like a bunch but there is a lot of work and a lot of machinery expense involved.  When you own 3 combines, 2 pickers, 2 de-tasslers, 10 tractors, numerous trailers and 3 road tractors, it all costs a lot of jack.  He's not a millionaire by a long shot but he lives comfortably, but then, so do I.

I just run my hay every year and work for him on the side and call it good.

Way of life out here.  We are removed from the urban sprawl and we like that.  On a dirt road in the middle of nowhere (mud right now),  2 cars a day come by and I know who is in them.

The 'virus' out here isn't a big concern as we don't really have much contact with the outside world and all it's germs.  We can pick and choose who we deal with and who we are friends with.  best of all, out here, everything is on a handshake and a man's word is gospel.  If it was like there everywhere, we'd be a lot better off.  Sadly, it isn't, but it still is here.

Thought I'd give you a little insight as to what I (we) do out here.  It's lots more complex but no point in getting into details except to say, when you buy your food at the grocery, the grocery fairy didn't make it appear.  We did.  Finally, all the hay I run every year goes to feed cattle, not just mine (I don't use but maybe 1/10th of what I make),  the rest goes to one customer, a large feedlot operation that specializes in high quality steers for the food market.  If you live out east and buy quality beef at your grocery store, there is a very good chance the beef you bought was fed on the hay I run.  The operator that buys my hay sends his steers to slaughter in Philadelphia for East coast meat sales.  We do our best to make sure you have quality, tender farm raised beef.


----------



## Grizzerbear

SidecarFlip said:


> We do our best to make sure you have quality, tender farm raised beef.



Amen


----------



## AlbergSteve

begreen said:


> Take 5 minutes to read through this posting. It explains how this is based on hard data and not speculation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Corona Virus
> 
> 
> SF, As someone who most likely is not in good health, your response was more emotional than logical.  Anyone with the capacity to think should realize , and a trip through most care centers would demonstrate it, many are kept alive artificially.  Only someone who was only using their head for a...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hearth.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And then there is the simple fact of how woefully unprepared we are. One doesn't need tea leaves to see how this is evolving.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> US virus testing faces new headwind: Lab supply shortages
> 
> 
> WASHINGTON (AP) — First, some of the coronavirus tests didn't work. Then there weren't enough to go around...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> apnews.com


...and you were *told *how unprepared you were, five months ago.


----------



## ABMax24

Here is a good read on the subject:


----------



## ABMax24

Here is some info on the Genome tracing and progression of Covid-19.





__





						auspice
					






					nextstrain.org


----------



## BKVP

Freezer is full of halibut, elk, venison and turkeys.  Plenty of water on hand.  Praying for expeditious resolutions to save as many lives as possible.  Getting ready to plant the garden...need to be mindful of other's suffering and loss, but need some healthy distractions as well.

Now where did I leave that Midleton 32 Very Rare?


----------



## AlbergSteve

ABMax24 said:


> Here is a good read on the subject:



Saw this data from Imperial College when it was published, mind-boggling. Yet we still have people saying we're over reacting. Hell hath no fury like a virus underestimated.


----------



## MTY

I do not know what people are expecting, but ammo sales are beginning to mimic TP sales.  I had people from the coast in for ammo today.  A good number of the sales were for several hundred dollars worth.  People are starting to annoy me.  One idiot pointed a Glock 17 at my chest this morning.  I have just about had enough.


----------



## begreen

AlbergSteve said:


> ...and you were *told *how unprepared you were, five months ago.


And before that, 14 yrs ago.








						The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
					

Epidemiologist Larry Brilliant, who warned of pandemic in 2006, says we can beat the novel coronavirus—but first, we need lots more testing.




					www.wired.com


----------



## AlbergSteve

begreen said:


> And before that, 14 yrs ago.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
> 
> 
> Epidemiologist Larry Brilliant, who warned of pandemic in 2006, says we can beat the novel coronavirus—but first, we need lots more testing.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wired.com



*Everyone *should watch/read this.


----------



## AlbergSteve

Another good read *here*.

And maybe I'll dig up some of my old African *copper *bracelets.


----------



## peakbagger

peakbagger said:


> For those who are worried about extended supply chains for toilet paper, it really does not apply. I was in the tissue industry for part of my career and keep an eye on the industry out of general interest. Toilet paper and tissue in general has a fundamental problem that its fluffy and full of air.  Unlike most commodities the truck is filled up with volume long before its at its max weight. This raises the shipping cost and thus its very rarely imported as the shipping and handling makes imported product noncompetitive.  If a company is trying to ship the maximum amount of product in the shortest possible time, shipping toilet paper is not high on the list. With a ongoing shortage of trucks and drivers, there is lot more profit per load shipping heavier product.



By the way, the Koch family may be getting hammered due to their petrochemical empire but they also own the biggest private held toilet paper producer in the US, Georgia Pacific.


----------



## SpaceBus

I have family members that are convinced this virus was created in a lab to be a weapon. What do you do about this? Nobody can prove anything so I feel like this is just a mess. My wife is trying to explain global politics to family on the phone, it's not going well. I think the uncertainty and bad Intel about this virus is worse than what it's doing to our communities... The lack of understanding about microbiology among the masses is really frustrating.


----------



## ABMax24

SpaceBus said:


> I have family members that are convinced this virus was created in a lab to be a weapon. What do you do about this? Nobody can prove anything so I feel like this is just a mess. My wife is trying to explain global politics to family on the phone, it's not going well. I think the uncertainty and bad Intel about this virus is worse than what it's doing to our communities... The lack of understanding about microbiology among the masses is really frustrating.



Honestly I think that is a possibility. But the blame game can come later, right now we need to stop it first.


----------



## SpaceBus

ABMax24 said:


> Honestly I think that is a possibility. But the blame game can come later, right now we need to stop it first.


If this was created in a lab, it wasn't supposed to get out. This is not a tactically or strategically effective weapon since it destroys the user as well. We will also probably never know for sure if it was created. There are loads of websites out there claiming definitively that the virus is a weapon, but those websites are probably foreign propaganda hubs.


----------



## mcdougy

All you can do is ignore that train of thinking. People must remain focused ON the current situation, not WHO started it. Let's not take this thread there.....YET.


----------



## woodnomore

Nothing worse than a gloating prepper. While I am not a prepper I am supplied. I have my own well, I have wild game and farm raised meat in the freezer. I also have the ability to be self reliant.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

SidecarFlip said:


> .  Glad I don't live on either coast right now.  I'm sure it's coming but at least we can somewhat prepare.


Suddenly "flyover country" is looking good".


----------



## SpaceBus

woodnomore said:


> Nothing worse than a gloating prepper. While I am not a prepper I am supplied. I have my own well, I have wild game and farm raised meat in the freezer. I also have the ability to be self reliant.


Peppers aren't really prepared, they are just as scared as everyone else.


----------



## RFarm

If a rapid test for SARS-CoV-2 (the real name of this virus, the WHO renamed it COVID-19 to reduce fear and panic as the label SARS conjures up fear) would enable us to end these quarantines and shelter in place ordinances.  We would need to be tested weekly for about 3 months at one of thousands of drive up locations. Tests would be instantaneous.  If negative you get a wrist band stating your testing date and when your next one is due.  If positive you go to a recovery center where you get treatment and daily testing.  Once clear you return to your life.  This would be a slight inconvenience compared to this insanity we are dealing with now.


----------



## begreen

RFarm said:


> If a rapid test for SARS-CoV-2 (the real name of this virus, the WHO renamed it COVID-19 to reduce fear and panic as the label SARS conjures up fear) would enable us to end these quarantines and shelter in place ordinances.  We would need to be tested weekly for about 3 months at one of thousands of drive up locations. Tests would be instantaneous.  If negative you get a wrist band stating your testing date and when your next one is due.  If positive you go to a recovery center where you get treatment and daily testing.  Once clear you return to your life.  This would be a slight inconvenience compared to this insanity we are dealing with now.


Eventually, that is the goal, but we are several months from that point. In the near term the situation will get worse, due to shortages, lack of preparation and fast action.








						Imports of medical supplies plummet as demand in US soars
					

The critical shortage of medical supplies across the U.S., including testing swabs, protective masks, surgical gowns and hand sanitizer, can be tied to a sudden drop in imports, mostly from China, The Associated Press has found...




					apnews.com


----------



## begreen

ABMax24 said:


> Honestly I think that is a possibility. But the blame game can come later, right now we need to stop it first.


There is genetic proof that this came from the wild.








						COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic has a natural origin
					

An analysis of public genome sequence data from SARS-CoV-2 and related viruses found no evidence that the virus was made in a laboratory or otherwise engineered.



					www.sciencedaily.com


----------



## Medic21

RFarm said:


> If a rapid test for SARS-CoV-2 (the real name of this virus, the WHO renamed it COVID-19 to reduce fear and panic as the label SARS conjures up fear) would enable us to end these quarantines and shelter in place ordinances.  We would need to be tested weekly for about 3 months at one of thousands of drive up locations. Tests would be instantaneous.  If negative you get a wrist band stating your testing date and when your next one is due.  If positive you go to a recovery center where you get treatment and daily testing.  Once clear you return to your life.  This would be a slight inconvenience compared to this insanity we are dealing with now.


Locally, one health system is gearing up to test in their own lab with a rapid test they developed and have approval for.  Today they can do 500 a day by Tuesday they will have a 5000 a day capacity by spreading it out to their whole network.  Our competitive healthcare systems are hopefully going to work together and between the big three it should allow for over 10,000 tests, in house, a day in Indiana.  

I’m not to worried for the majority of people that get this.  So far all I have seen have been very mild but, by testing that much we can quarantine those infected.  If even only at home it will limit spread greatly.  If we can do that on a large scale nationwide we can stop this in a month.


----------



## kennyp2339

Living in NJ I have to hand it to governor Cuomo for some of the best news updates, I wish my governor or even the president could speak like how he speaks, I'm not a supporter of the NY governor, but I have to give credit when credit is due.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

kennyp2339 said:


> I'm not a supporter of the NY governor, but I have to give credit when credit is due.


 He does seem to be able to convey a sense of urgency without the panic. Quite a fine needle to thread.


----------



## ABMax24

begreen said:


> There is genetic proof that this came from the wild.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic has a natural origin
> 
> 
> An analysis of public genome sequence data from SARS-CoV-2 and related viruses found no evidence that the virus was made in a laboratory or otherwise engineered.
> 
> 
> 
> www.sciencedaily.com



Just because it is from natural origin doesn't mean it couldn't have come from a lab. We have labs here in Canada that have almost every virus known to man stored inside them for research. It does mean that it wasn't modified to inflict more damage on the general population.  Although I do agree that coming from nature is the most probable source. But I digress, where it came from isn't really relevant right now, stopping it is.


----------



## RFarm

begreen said:


> There is genetic proof that this came from the wild.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic has a natural origin
> 
> 
> An analysis of public genome sequence data from SARS-CoV-2 and related viruses found no evidence that the virus was made in a laboratory or otherwise engineered.
> 
> 
> 
> www.sciencedaily.com


Early on , Indian virologists identifies a protein from the AIDS virus contained in the  SARS-Cov-19 virus.  It also contains proteins from the SARS virus family.  It is quite apparent that this is a man made virus.  The mainstream media is owned by four people and that do not want you to know the truth.  The only questions we need answered are 1.) Who created this 2) Who is  responsible for its release 3) Was it released intentionally.  It is very concerning that the AIDS virus is part of this as it has no cure and can lie latent for decades.  Folks a vaccine or cure is not really a reality with today’s technology.  Prepare for big pharmaceutical companies to be our bedfellows for the foreseeable future.  More toxic drugs are going to be offered to us and possibly forced into us than ever before.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Medic21 said:


> Locally, one health system is gearing up to test in their own lab with a rapid test they developed and have approval for.  Today they can do 500 a day by Tuesday they will have a 5000 a day capacity by spreading it


 Geisinger can do their own testing in their own labs as well. They also have been sending some test out. A woman from my town is currently waiting 6 days for test results that were sent somewhere in california. That kind of delay is not going to work.
.


----------



## Sodbuster

My daughter is waiting 5 days after initially testing negative for Influenza. If that test is negative, they send it on for Covid testing, but it still takes 5 days. She should have her results on Tuesday.  We've been dropping off food on the front porch, and she retrieves it once she leaves. Anyone else wearing gloves and masks to the store, if you need to go?


----------



## Medic21

This is from my Cousin who is a Pediatric Infectious Disease Specialist.  


“Covid-19 is spreading quickly. I don’t mean this post to sound harsh or rude, but we as a country are at a crossroad. We HAVE to change how we live our daily lives now. PLEASE STAY HOME if at all possible. I understand we all need things from the grocery. If this is the case, try your best to find a way to go without taking your kids in to the store. We know that children frequently have mild or no symptoms with covid-19. This means that your child may be unknowingly spreading the virus to others at high risk. 

We know now that covid-19 is worse than influenza at this time. People have ZERO immunity to covid-19 because it is a new strain of coronavirus. There is no vaccine. There is no great treatment. Yes,  various drugs are being trialed, but we don’t know yet how effective these are. 

I am not advocating that we all live in a state of high anxiety about covid-19. I am asking that we all use our God given brains and common sense to do what we can to slow the virus. It will pass. We will get through this as China is now. BUT...how many lives will be lost along the way? Please be smart and think twice about your daily activities. “

I can say people are being sensible from a standpoint of 911 calls being down 60% in our area.  Let’s hope it stands and people continue to use common sense and remain home with minor illnesses.  That is the key right now.


----------



## Medic21

Sodbuster said:


> My daughter is waiting 5 days after initially testing negative for Influenza. If that test is negative, they send it on for Covid testing, but it still takes 5 days. She should have her results on Tuesday.  We've been dropping off food on the front porch, and she retrieves it once she leaves. Anyone else wearing gloves and masks to the store, if you need to go?


You wearing a mask really won’t do much unless it’s a sealed N95.  Gloves are ok but, this doesn’t cross the skin so hand washing is effective. If you don’t touch the routes of entry.  Gloves may even give you a false sense of security.  Outside of aerosol generating procedure, nebulizers, high flow oxygen masks, CPAP BiPAP, or ventilators the disease is not airborne other than droplets.  

I would suggest gowns and distancing or just if you have to go out change and wash clothes immediately.


----------



## begreen

RFarm said:


> Early on , Indian virologists identifies a protein from the AIDS virus contained in the  SARS-Cov-19 virus.  It also contains proteins from the SARS virus family.  It is quite apparent that this is a man made virus.  The mainstream media is owned by four people and that do not want you to know the truth.  The only questions we need answered are 1.) Who created this 2) Who is  responsible for its release 3) Was it released intentionally.  It is very concerning that the AIDS virus is part of this as it has no cure and can lie latent for decades.  Folks a vaccine or cure is not really a reality with today’s technology.  Prepare for big pharmaceutical companies to be our bedfellows for the foreseeable future.  More toxic drugs are going to be offered to us and possibly forced into us than ever before.


Claims like these should not be made without substantial supporting documentation. Otherwise, it is tinfoil hat territory.


----------



## begreen

Medic21 said:


> I would suggest gowns and distancing or just if you have to go out change and wash clothes immediately.


And take a shower. If you can't wash your clothes, hang them out in the sunshine. Or at least don't touch them for a day.


----------



## Medic21

begreen said:


> And take a shower. If you can't wash your clothes, hang them out in the sunshine. Or at least don't touch them for a day.


My standard for coming home from working EMS for the last two decades has been the following.  I NEVER wear a uniform out of station.  Those clothes go in a bag and go in the washer as soon as I walk in the door.  I usually workout on the way home so those clothes go in with it and I take a shower.  Only after that do I hug the kids or anything else.  Those habits are perfect for now, except I shower before and after the gym now.

This is not the first virus or even the ones I worry about most days.  There are a whole host of illnesses and creepy crawlers I come in contact with daily lol.


----------



## festerw

ABMax24 said:


> Just because it is from natural origin doesn't mean it couldn't have come from a lab. We have labs here in Canada that have almost every virus known to man stored inside them for research. It does mean that it wasn't modified to inflict more damage on the general population.  Although I do agree that coming from nature is the most probable source. But I digress, where it came from isn't really relevant right now, stopping it is.





RFarm said:


> Early on , Indian virologists identifies a protein from the AIDS virus contained in the  SARS-Cov-19 virus.  It also contains proteins from the SARS virus family.  It is quite apparent that this is a man made virus.  The mainstream media is owned by four people and that do not want you to know the truth.  The only questions we need answered are 1.) Who created this 2) Who is  responsible for its release 3) Was it released intentionally.  It is very concerning that the AIDS virus is part of this as it has no cure and can lie latent for decades.  Folks a vaccine or cure is not really a reality with today’s technology.  Prepare for big pharmaceutical companies to be our bedfellows for the foreseeable future.  More toxic drugs are going to be offered to us and possibly forced into us than ever before.





begreen said:


> Claims like these should not be made without substantial supporting documentation. Otherwise, it is tinfoil hat territory.



There is no evidence. The virus has mechanisms SIMILAR to HIV in the way it attacks and binds to human protein.








						Covid-19 far more likely than Sars to bond to human cells due to HIV-like mutation, scientists say
					

HONG KONG — The new coronavirus has a HIV-like mutation that means its ability to bind with human cells could be up to 1,000 times as strong as the Sars virus, according to new research by scientists in China and Europe.




					www.todayonline.com
				




The genome of the virus has been sequenced and there is no evidence that the virus was engineered or modified by humans.








						COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic has a natural origin
					

An analysis of public genome sequence data from SARS-CoV-2 and related viruses found no evidence that the virus was made in a laboratory or otherwise engineered.



					www.sciencedaily.com


----------



## ABMax24

RFarm said:


> Early on , Indian virologists identifies a protein from the AIDS virus contained in the  SARS-Cov-19 virus.  It also contains proteins from the SARS virus family.  It is quite apparent that this is a man made virus.  The mainstream media is owned by four people and that do not want you to know the truth.  The only questions we need answered are 1.) Who created this 2) Who is  responsible for its release 3) Was it released intentionally.  It is very concerning that the AIDS virus is part of this as it has no cure and can lie latent for decades.  Folks a vaccine or cure is not really a reality with today’s technology.  Prepare for big pharmaceutical companies to be our bedfellows for the foreseeable future.  More toxic drugs are going to be offered to us and possibly forced into us than ever before.



_Essentially, the scientists found that yes, there are some additions in the nCoV coronavirus originating in Wuhan that other coronaviruses don’t have, which are similar to pieces of sequence found in HIV. But, the kicker here is that these pieces of genetic code are also found in countless other viruses and there’s no reason to believe they specifically came from HIV, at all. 









						No, The Coronavirus Was Not Genetically Engineered To Put Pieces Of HIV In It
					

A recent scientific paper published on pre-print server bioRxiv made some very odd claims about HIV and coronavirus that were quickly debunked by other scientists.




					www.forbes.com
				



_


----------



## ABMax24

festerw said:


> There is no evidence. The virus has mechanisms SIMILAR to HIV in the way it attacks and binds to human protein.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid-19 far more likely than Sars to bond to human cells due to HIV-like mutation, scientists say
> 
> 
> HONG KONG — The new coronavirus has a HIV-like mutation that means its ability to bind with human cells could be up to 1,000 times as strong as the Sars virus, according to new research by scientists in China and Europe.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.todayonline.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The genome of the virus has been sequenced and there is no evidence that the virus was engineered or modified by humans.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic has a natural origin
> 
> 
> An analysis of public genome sequence data from SARS-CoV-2 and related viruses found no evidence that the virus was made in a laboratory or otherwise engineered.
> 
> 
> 
> www.sciencedaily.com



Not really sure why you quoted my post, I said I didn't believe it was man made.


----------



## festerw

ABMax24 said:


> Not really sure why you quoted my post, I said I didn't believe it was man made.



My fault misread what you wrote in the one sentence.


----------



## RFarm

Believe what you want to believe and trust whatever sources you feel you can trust.  With a couple thousand bucks, a CRISPR machine and a little genetic knowledge, anyone can create a deadly virus.  There are independent labs all over the world with this capability and there are quite a few level 4 super labs like the one in Wuhan.  Truth is we will never know the truth, we will just accept whatever explanation gains the most popularity and move on.  My only piece of advice is avoid getting this thing at all costs.


----------



## begreen

RFarm said:


> Believe what you want to believe and trust whatever sources you feel you can trust.  With a couple thousand bucks, a CRISPR machine and a little genetic knowledge, anyone can create a deadly virus.  There are independent labs all over the world with this capability and there are quite a few level 4 super labs like the one in Wuhan.  Truth is we will never know the truth, we will just accept whatever explanation gains the most popularity and move on.  My only piece of advice is avoid getting this thing at all costs.


Speculation helps no one, even the paper mentioned just speculated. Some publications will do almost anything to gain temporary attention and ad dollars. Caveat emptor.

PS: As the article states, the paper was immediately panned by experts around the world and retracted from biology journal server bioRxiv on Sunday. It was essentially, speculative disinformation and definitely not peer-reviewed.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

begreen said:


> Speculation helps no one.


Unless it turns out to be true. Something to be seriously looked into once this is over.


----------



## Sodbuster

If this does turn out to be something concocted in lab and then released, that would be considered an act of war. We know the Chinese consider themselves to be overpopulated and killed any second born child up until 2015 when a second child was allowed, maybe it was an experiment that they lost control over.


----------



## blades

if that's the case it is the 3rd  orso  in the last 40  or so years.  Is China at fault?   Read the history about wet markets ( not just the china ones) and China's repsones to there own famine a bunch of years back.  It will be enlightening and dispel the weaponizing theories.  Also might want to bone up on the history of SARS and MRSE while you are at it.  Do that and you will have a pretty good picture of  reality.  Ebola is another to read up on. got no bone to pick i just try to get  relevant information not media hype.


----------



## begreen

Sodbuster said:


> If this does turn out to be something concocted in lab and then released, that would be considered an act of war. We know the Chinese consider themselves to be overpopulated and killed any second born child up until 2015 when a second child was allowed, maybe it was an experiment that they lost control over.


This is just plain xenophobic and really unfounded. It is this kind of speculation that leads to unintended consequences.


----------



## begreen

Let's stick to the Covid virus and not international politics.


----------



## PaulOinMA

I used the term "xenophobic" on an OBX forum last night.  Jeez, did I get jumped on for defending China, when I did no such thing.

People were then telling me that Chinese Smithfield pig farms in NC show that the Chinese government are bioterrorists.  It was major league tinfoil hat time and really, really weird.


----------



## begreen

Sodbuster said:


> Sorry, I just hit reply, and thought I was in the Socialism area.


Understood. I had the same thing happen in that thread to me and had to delete it.


----------



## SidecarFlip

President gave a good address today and of course the market took another dump (which I candidly) am ignoring anyway) because my 401 went south and I'm in for the long haul, whatever that will be, anyway.

I'm more concerned about not contracting the virus right now than anything else and I'm personally doing everything I can to achieve that goal.

Despite that, I'll still farm this year no matter what, well unless I get the virus, then all bets are off.  Working on equipment right now, getting tractors and implements ready.


----------



## Sodbuster

SidecarFlip said:


> President gave a good address today and of course the market took another dump (which I candidly) am ignoring anyway) because my 401 went south and I'm in for the long haul, whatever that will be, anyway.
> 
> I'm more concerned about not contracting the virus right now than anything else and I'm personally doing everything I can to achieve that goal.
> 
> Despite that, I'll still farm this year no matter what, well unless I get the virus, then all bets are off.  Working on equipment right now, getting tractors and implements ready.



I haven't had the intestinal fortitude to look at mine.


----------



## peakbagger

Sadly the Chinese have an additional ongoing epidemic that was handled far worse than CV-19. Its called African swine flu. The mortality for hogs is darn close to 100% once it gets into a farm. Its wiped out half the countries hog population. One of the many downsides to cramming too many people or swine in a small area.

BTW Smithfield in NC had very bad swine farming habits long before the Chinese bought them. They had been buying off state politicians for years to the point where the EPA threatened to take over environmental regulation in the state as the state conveniently ignored the hog and poultry industry for years. 

Viruses are always mutating ,thats why the seasonal flu shots have to be changed yearly. No need to weaponize them, the luck of the cosmic draw is all that is needed, poor public sanitation just ups the odds for the cardsto line up on something scary.


----------



## SidecarFlip

Heck, this wiped out about 10 years of my 401 so fat.  But I'm still alive and so far, virus free and you know something?  That is way more important to me than funds I had that I don't now.  If I'm dead I cannot use it anyway.


----------



## Sodbuster

I just can't help but think theirs something different about this one. It hit Italy harder than China, where it originated. Why? Italy has a very modern health care system. I don't recall, and neither does my 84 year Father, such drastic measures being taken, in his lifetime. The death rate is still lower than Influenza, i guess we'll have to see where they settle out. Hopefully, we can eliminate it, by quarantining the hosts, namely us.


----------



## bfitz3

RFarm said:


> Early on , Indian virologists identifies a protein from the AIDS virus contained in the  SARS-Cov-19 virus.  It also contains proteins from the SARS virus family.  It is quite apparent that this is a man made virus.  The mainstream media is owned by four people and that do not want you to know the truth.  The only questions we need answered are 1.) Who created this 2) Who is  responsible for its release 3) Was it released intentionally.  It is very concerning that the AIDS virus is part of this as it has no cure and can lie latent for decades.  Folks a vaccine or cure is not really a reality with today’s technology.  Prepare for big pharmaceutical companies to be our bedfellows for the foreseeable future.  More toxic drugs are going to be offered to us and possibly forced into us than ever before.


Do you realize how much genetic material is common between a human and a banana?


----------



## SidecarFlip

bfitz3 said:


> Do you realize how much genetic material is common between a human and a banana?


Gee, I like monkey pickles....


----------



## SpaceBus

Sodbuster said:


> I just can't help but think theirs something different about this one. It hit Italy harder than China, where it originated. Why? Italy has a very modern health care system. I don't recall, and neither does my 84 year Father, such drastic measures being taken, in his lifetime. The death rate is still lower than Influenza, i guess we'll have to see where they settle out. Hopefully, we can eliminate it, by quarantining the hosts, namely us.


Because China held back critical data that could have helped Italian Authorities prevent so many from getting sick. The Chinese regime suppressed a lot of data and information coming out about Covid 19. They also waited weeks to tell anyone about it, long after people had already traveled out of China.


----------



## begreen

bfitz3 said:


> Do you realize how much genetic material is common between a human and a banana?


Creepy, right?


----------



## begreen

SpaceBus said:


> Because China held back critical data that could have helped Italian Authorities prevent so many from getting sick. The Chinese regime suppressed a lot of data and information coming out about Covid 19. They also waited weeks to tell anyone about it, long after people had already traveled out of China.


S. Korea, Taiwan,  Singapore all have stayed on top of this situation, some with large populations in dense areas. Japan has done a pretty good job too. One major difference has been the amount of testing done right away. Perhaps a fundamental difference was they took very quick action. It has been good enough that they have not had to enforce social distancing in most cases. The more important object lesson from Italy is that it can happen like this here too and perhaps for the maybe similar reasons. NY cases are going up quickly.

Here are some other possible reasons for why the outbreak hit Italy:








						As the number of coronavirus cases rises, why is Italy being hit so hard?
					

The country of Italy is on lockdown as the number of cases of COVID-19 soars.




					abcnews.go.com


----------



## SidecarFlip

Fact or fiction, you decide.  Today it's hard to differentiate between the two.  Too much, shall we call it 'propaganda' always circulating but..

I saw a while ago on PBS that the underlying  reason why Italy and Iran (yes,Iran) are having such a high incidence of Covid 19 is both countries allowed Chinese workers in to work on various public works projects and those Chinese workers brought the virus with them.  If true sad and if not, just propaganda but the bottom line is both countries are in deep do do.

I saw pictures if the Iranian burial sites.  Kilometer long trenches in the ground with a pile of lime behind them, waiting for the deceased to be laid to rest.  Not pretty.  Put them in, cover with lime to decompose them and put dirt on top.

I just bought an Italian hay rake.  Was delivered last week in a crate.  Sitting in the barn.  I'l letting it sit for a while just in case it didn't come virus free.


----------



## Medic21

bfitz3 said:


> Do you realize how much genetic material is common between a human and a banana?


I wonder if he realizes there are basically 2 sub groups of viruses based on proteins and how they attach and enter the cells?


----------



## SpaceBus

begreen said:


> S. Korea, Taiwan,  Singapore all have stayed on top of this situation, some with large populations in dense areas. Japan has done a pretty good job too. One major difference has been the amount of testing done right away. Perhaps a fundamental difference was they took very quick action. It has been good enough that they have not had to enforce social distancing in most cases. The more important object lesson from Italy is that it can happen like this here too and perhaps for the same reason. NY cases are going up quickly.


Asian countries are also accustomed to dealing with SARS.


----------



## mcdougy

[QUOTE="Medic21, post: 2430753, member: I usually workout on the way home so those clothes go in with it and I take a shower.  Only after that do I hug the kids or anything else.  Those habits are perfect for now, except I shower before and after the gym

Im very surprised your gym is still open or the fact your still heading there while there's an ongoing pandemic. I think you should really reconsider your normal routine....like everyone else, it's time to wake up and realize this isn't going away unless everyone does their part.


----------



## mcdougy

From my understanding part of the problem with testing in our province is...there's never been a test needed for covid19.  So the equipment required is barely existent. In this province, there is none. Initially we had to send all swabs out of province to Winnipeg Manitoba where the most sophisticated equipment is. This caused a 4-7day turnaround time for results. Once the government realized this was not practical they allowed the hospital here to do testing in house. 4 hour results....great.....except the in house equipment is producing false negatives. Positives are always correct, but negatives are not. So.....that creates the hospitals to do 2 swabs at a time for each speculated carrier. One gets tested locally and one gets sent back off to Winnipeg.
Talk about complications.......
FWIW my understanding is coming from my wife who is a ICU/CCTC nurse with 25 years exp. Which whom I've never seen so concerned about a health event.


----------



## begreen

SpaceBus said:


> Asian countries are also accustomed to dealing with SARS.


There was no SARS in S. Korea , but yes for Taiwan and Singapore, once burned, twice learned. FWIW, we had to deal with H1N1, ebola, SARS and Zika. The difference is that they know contagion is possible and have plans in place so they were quick to mobilize and test. They wasted no time establishing the kind of safe practices that will minimize the opportunity for spillover.  They were invested in risk protection and had good supplies to get testing quickly and extensively.  We too had invested but this was dismantled. And rather than immediately buying WHO tests to at least buy us time, we insisted in doing it our own way. The first try at that failed costing precious time.


----------



## Medic21

mcdougy said:


> [QUOTE="Medic21, post: 2430753, member: I usually workout on the way home so those clothes go in with it and I take a shower.  Only after that do I hug the kids or anything else.  Those habits are perfect for now, except I shower before and after the gym
> 
> Im very surprised your gym is still open or the fact your still heading there while there's an ongoing pandemic. I think you should really reconsider your normal routine....like everyone else, it's time to wake up and realize this isn't going away unless everyone does their part.


I’m gonna catch it as a Paramedic, I may as well keep myself in shape.  It is a very small private gym that is usually empty to 3 or 4 in it when I’m there. Just wipe down before and after using equipment.


----------



## RockCastile

Feel free to move this elsewhere but:
If I had a TRILLION dollars to invest in preventing the next catastrophic virus that transmits via the eyes and nose, what would my odds be of finding a collection of geniuses who could invent,
1. A nostril plug device that's 99.9% effective at killing viruses (UV light, some fancy rare earth metal with an electric current running through it, etc, get creative), is comfortable to wear, and causes no restriction to natural breathing. 
2. A mouthpiece with a space age gauzy mesh (nanofabric, graphene, again, get creative) that covers the lips, blocks all virus, and is comfortable to wear and does not inhibit talking. Gotta take it out to eat/drink tho.
Remember, I have a TRILLION dollars.


----------



## begreen

With a lot of false stories circulating about the coronavirus, here is some fact-checking. 









						NOT REAL NEWS: Another week of false coronavirus content
					

A roundup of some of the most popular but completely untrue stories and visuals of the week. None of these are legit, even though they were shared widely on social media...




					apnews.com


----------



## Medic21

mcdougy said:


> [QUOTE="Medic21, post: 2430753, member: I usually workout on the way home so those clothes go in with it and I take a shower.  Only after that do I hug the kids or anything else.  Those habits are perfect for now, except I shower before and after the gym
> 
> Im very surprised your gym is still open or the fact your still heading there while there's an ongoing pandemic. I think you should really reconsider your normal routine....like everyone else, it's time to wake up and realize this isn't going away unless everyone does their part.


Not mention that if I don’t bring it home the wife is an ER Nurse and Paramedic so she will give it to me.


----------



## Jason721

At first I thought all this was a bunch of media hype but....I have a daughter and her family living in Germany (military)  that we communicate with almost daily. 
At first they were order to stay on base..hand washing stations were placed everywhere... only a certain amount of people were allowed in the post office. They watched and made sure you washed your hands before entering. Lines on the floor of the PX keeping people at a 6' distance..then it quickly move to x amount of distance from their home.  Now their quarantined to their home. Only one person is allowed out to shop.. if found outside doing other than what your instructed to do you are slapped with a fine.  She says...dad you better take your precautionary steps now... its coming.. and when it does it puts the brakes on everything.
she said this to us 3-4 weeks ago.
I see it unfolding for the US now. So far this virus has slowed things waaaaay down.


----------



## mcdougy

Medic21 said:


> This is from my Cousin who is a Pediatric Infectious Disease Specialist.
> 
> 
> “Covid-19 is spreading quickly. I don’t mean this post to sound harsh or rude, but we as a country are at a crossroad. We HAVE to change how we live our daily lives now. PLEASE STAY HOME if at all possible. I understand we all need things from the grocery. If this is the case, try your best to find a way to go without taking your kids in to the store. We know that children frequently have mild or no symptoms with covid-19. This means that your child may be unknowingly spreading the virus to others at high risk.
> 
> We know now that covid-19 is worse than influenza at this time. People have ZERO immunity to covid-19 because it is a new strain of coronavirus. There is no vaccine. There is no great treatment. Yes,  various drugs are being trialed, but we don’t know yet how effective these are.
> 
> I am not advocating that we all live in a state of high anxiety about covid-19. I am asking that we all use our God given brains and common sense to do what we can to slow the virus. It will pass. We will get through this as China is now. BUT...how many lives will be lost along the way? Please be smart and think twice about your daily activities. “
> 
> I can say people are being sensible from a standpoint of 911 calls being down 60% in our area.  Let’s hope it stands and people continue to use common sense and remain home with minor illnesses.  That is the key right now.


This is the information ALL people need to remember. Your job is to do everything possible to stop transmission. As a paramedic your highly valuable, but will be of no value if you contract it. Your trained and equipped with means necessary to protect yourself and the VULNERABLE.  
Thanks for your service we need it.


----------



## AlbergSteve

Medic21 said:


> Not mention that if I don’t bring it home the wife is an ER Nurse and Paramedic so she will give it to me.


...and you go to the gym and give it to someone else. FFS!


----------



## begreen

Sobering milestone. Right now we are in a very intense period with deaths doubling every 3 days. When the number of days starts to rise that will be an indication of the pandemic slowing down. In S. Korea it is every 12 days. In China it is now every 35 days. The world is currently at 7 days. 













						Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)
					

Country-by-country data and research on the pandemic. Updated daily.




					ourworldindata.org


----------



## Medic21

AlbergSteve said:


> ...and you go to the gym and give it to someone else. FFS!


No, any symptoms from anyone and it’s 14 days at home.  

You also have to admit that if People are making that choicw to continue to risk themselves when they still have a choice, I don’t, it’s on them not me.


----------



## Medic21

AlbergSteve said:


> ...and you go to the gym and give it to someone else. FFS!


The more I think about it the questions you should be asking me how do we plan on not spreading it as paramedics going into peoples houses, in and out of hospitals, in the nursing homes, etc. Having that 2 to 14 day incubation and asymptomatic periods.  I share beds with the other two crews that work or station.  Especially now that the CDC has it knowledged the nationwide paramedic shortage and there’s no self Quarantine requirements anymore. As long as staffing allows my employer has one but, if we have two paramedics off that’s going to go out the window.  These are just the VAX if you want us around when you have a heart attack, stroke, accident, etc.  The other 15,000 runs a year we have in our service arnet gonna stop   We just get the privilege of adding to it.  So enjoy yourself Quarantine and social distancing. I’m actually worrying about the rest of the population.


----------



## woodnomore

SpaceBus said:


> Peppers aren't really prepared, they are just as scared as everyone else.



They can gloat while they eat MRE's


----------



## Ashful

... and then there’s this:









						Trending: Out-of-control teenagers coughing on grocery store produce
					

Idle teenagers are participating in a “disturbing trend” of coughing on grocery store produce and posting their pranks online as the nation fights the coronavirus, which is known to spread from human “droplets” spraying from mouths.




					www.washingtonexaminer.com


----------



## kennyp2339

Medic21 said:


> deleted


Easy there partner, as a volley firefighter, emt, power co. guy we are looked at by the general public for providing a sense of stability, more or less, whether your on duty or off duty, on the internet, at the store, ect.. we need to hold ourselves to a higher standard then the general public. When people get scared they go to grab the low hanging fruit first, attack with little provocation and generally are hyper sensitive, regardless of our personal feelings we still need to be the strength and courage in the room, our demeanor needs to show urgency and stability.


----------



## woodnomore

Ashful said:


> ... and then there’s this:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Trending: Out-of-control teenagers coughing on grocery store produce
> 
> 
> Idle teenagers are participating in a “disturbing trend” of coughing on grocery store produce and posting their pranks online as the nation fights the coronavirus, which is known to spread from human “droplets” spraying from mouths.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.washingtonexaminer.com



I am not a violent person but if I saw this happening there would be a violent physical reaction.


----------



## Ashful

Sodbuster said:


> We know the Chinese consider themselves to be overpopulated and killed any second born child up until 2015 when a second child was allowed


This is simply not true.  I personally know a few second-born Chinese, born in the 1980’s, in the middle of the program you are falsely referring.  China is a socialist country, and childcare is largely paid for by the government.  The program to which you are referring simply reduced childcare reimbursements for families having more than one child.  This coerced less wealthy families to limit themselves to having just one child, but those who could afford it still had more than one, even daughters.  


Medic21 said:


> No, any symptoms from anyone and it’s 14 days at home.


Aren’t people potentially contagious before showing symptoms?


----------



## vinny11950

This made my day


----------



## SpaceBus

begreen said:


> There was no SARS in S. Korea , but yes for Taiwan and Singapore, once burned, twice learned. FWIW, we had to deal with H1N1, ebola, SARS and Zika. The difference is that they know contagion is possible and have plans in place so they were quick to mobilize and test. They wasted no time establishing the kind of safe practices that will minimize the opportunity for spillover.  They were invested in risk protection and had good supplies to get testing quickly and extensively.  We too had invested but this was dismantled. And rather than immediately buying WHO tests to at least buy us time, we insisted in doing it our own way. The first try at that failed costing precious time.


No, most of SE Asia has a lot of experience with SARS. It's easy to forget because the US was invading Iraq at the time, but SARS spread to 29 territories across the globe 2002-2004. The South Koreans knew how to handle it because of the previous SARS outbreak.


----------



## SpaceBus

Ashful said:


> This is simply not true.  I personally know a few second-born Chinese, born in the 1980’s, in the middle of the program you are falsely referring.  China is a socialist country, and childcare is largely paid for by the government.  The program to which you are referring simply reduced childcare reimbursements for families having more than one child.  This coerced less wealthy families to limit themselves to having just one child, but those who could afford it still had more than one, even daughters.
> 
> Aren’t people potentially contagious before showing symptoms?


Actually the One Child Policy lead to the deaths of probably millions of developed fetuses and children. Thousands were abducted and sent to orphanages to be sold to wealthy folks worldwide. It was a big deal. You are grossly misinformed about this topic, as have I been until recently. Prime put out a good documentary about the issue. 

Rest assured that the Chinese government is far from socialist and they did not pay for any child care. They paid to give people abortions and sterilizations.


----------



## SpaceBus

woodnomore said:


> They can gloat while they eat MRE's


They will have a few more months, or even years, of terrible rations while I just grow my own food.


----------



## SpaceBus

woodnomore said:


> I am not a violent person but if I saw this happening there would be a violent physical reaction.


There are grown ass adults doing this too. There are several stories of adult Americans going out and doing things while knowing they are infected.


----------



## Medic21

Ashful said:


> This is simply not true.  I personally know a few second-born Chinese, born in the 1980’s, in the middle of the program you are falsely referring.  China is a socialist country, and childcare is largely paid for by the government.  The program to which you are referring simply reduced childcare reimbursements for families having more than one child.  This coerced less wealthy families to limit themselves to having just one child, but those who could afford it still had more than one, even daughters.
> 
> Aren’t people potentially contagious before showing symptoms?


Not potentially, they usually are.


----------



## Medic21

kennyp2339 said:


> Easy there partner, as a volley firefighter, emt, power co. guy we are looked at by the general public for providing a sense of stability, more or less, whether your on duty or off duty, on the internet, at the store, ect.. we need to hold ourselves to a higher standard then the general public. When people get scared they go to grab the low hanging fruit first, attack with little provocation and generally are hyper sensitive, regardless of our personal feelings we still need to be the strength and courage in the room, our demeanor needs to show urgency and stability.


It’s nice you feel that way.  I will not be lectured to by a civilian that has no clue.  Especially condescending type of conversation.  I’ve had over 25 years to earn that right.  

we are running are balls off on a normal day with everyone’s petty crap and now we add the ignorance of this whole situation to it.  My tolerance was gone a long time ago.  No one has to thank me.  They wouldn’t do it any other time So why start now.  But, I wouldn’t tolerate crap like that any other day.


----------



## Sodbuster

Ashful said:


> This is simply not true.  I personally know a few second-born Chinese, born in the 1980’s, in the middle of the program you are falsely referring.  China is a socialist country, and childcare is largely paid for by the government.  The program to which you are referring simply reduced childcare reimbursements for families having more than one child.  This coerced less wealthy families to limit themselves to having just one child, but those who could afford it still had more than one, even daughters.
> 
> Aren’t people potentially contagious before showing symptoms?



It definitely used to be the case especially if the second born was a girl. I stand corrected, however, after further reading it sounds like they have relaxed or eliminated those rules. The problem most Chinese have is affording that second child.


----------



## SidecarFlip

Time for a chill pill.We all have our tasks to complete.  me, I need to farm and stay clear of this Chinese induced killer virus and you all need to slow down a bit.  The sky isn't falling yet.  May be a bit overcast but last time I looked (early this morning), the sun came up, right on time.

Right now at this juncture, I'm concerned about my own well being and my immediate family's well being and how we can mitigate the impact of the virus and in reality, that is about all we are concerned with,  None of us can control the actions of other's it's up to them as individuals to take the road they choose but at the same time, take responsibility for the actions or inactions, whatever that may be.

Try to make today, the best day of your life, how I roll at least.


----------



## SidecarFlip

mcdougy said:


> [QUOTE="Medic21, post: 2430753, member: I usually workout on the way home so those clothes go in with it and I take a shower.  Only after that do I hug the kids or anything else.  Those habits are perfect for now, except I shower before and after the gym
> 
> Im very surprised your gym is still open or the fact your still heading there while there's an ongoing pandemic. I think you should really reconsider your normal routine....like everyone else, it's time to wake up and realize this isn't going away unless everyone does their part.




If you farmed like I do, you'd never need to 'workout' at all.  It always amazes me that people actually pay to 'workout' in some 'health club' when all the really need to do is get off their sedate butts and do some real physical work at home or farm like I do.

You want a 'workout' come toss bales of forage for me.  Those 55 pound bales will give you all the workout you require and it's free.  I'll supply the bottled water and you can burn off those calories to your heart's content.

Everytime I pass a 'health club' I chuckle to myself and think, how utterly stupid people are.  here they are, paying for something they can do for free.  Whatever blows your dress up I guess.  Don't blow mine up at all.


----------



## woodnomore

SidecarFlip said:


> If you farmed like I do, you'd never need to 'workout' at all.  It always amazes me that people actually pay to 'workout' in some 'health club' when all the really need to do is get off their sedate butts and do some real physical work at home or farm like I do.
> 
> You want a 'workout' come toss bales of forage for me.  Those 55 pound bales will give you all the workout you require and it's free.  I'll supply the bottled water and you can burn off those calories to your heart's content.
> 
> Everytime I pass a 'health club' I chuckle to myself and think, how utterly stupid people are.  here they are, paying for something they can do for free.  Whatever blows your dress up I guess.  Don't blow mine up at all.



Bet you I could beat you in a marathon, throwing bales of hay will not prep you for that.


----------



## Grizzerbear

woodnomore said:


> Bet you I could beat you in a marathon, throwing bales of hay will not prep you for that.



If you follow behind my Grand father while he is pulling the hay trailer loading bales you better be at a brisk walk with two bales at a time.....that's a pretty good cardio workout.


----------



## festerw

woodnomore said:


> Bet you I could beat you in a marathon, throwing bales of hay will not prep you for that.



Yup apples/oranges there.

Some people enjoy lifting weights, some enjoy cardio, some enjoy physical labor.

A lot of my job involves moving heavy things around. Still hit the gym 3-5 days week and ran 5 Half Marathons last year. 

None will hurt and it also may or may not help against a virus.


----------



## Sodbuster

woodnomore said:


> Bet you I could beat you in a marathon, throwing bales of hay will not prep you for that.



You've obviously never have thrown a bale, it definitely gets the heart pumping, especially when throwing them 8-9 rows high.  Plus running is hard on the joints, especially the knees.


----------



## woodnomore

Sodbuster said:


> You've obviously never have thrown a bale, it definitely gets the heart pumping, especially when throwing them 8-9 rows high.  Plus running is hard on the joints, especially the knees.



And you would be wrong, We have had horses here on the ranch for 25 plus years, and I run on machines to remove most of the shock of running on hard ground.


----------



## Medic21

SidecarFlip said:


> If you farmed like I do, you'd never need to 'workout' at all.  It always amazes me that people actually pay to 'workout' in some 'health club' when all the really need to do is get off their sedate butts and do some real physical work at home or farm like I do.
> 
> You want a 'workout' come toss bales of forage for me.  Those 55 pound bales will give you all the workout you require and it's free.  I'll supply the bottled water and you can burn off those calories to your heart's content.
> 
> Everytime I pass a 'health club' I chuckle to myself and think, how utterly stupid people are.  here they are, paying for something they can do for free.  Whatever blows your dress up I guess.  Don't blow mine up at all.


I still farm.  Come get an SCBA and turnout gear.  I’ll take you through the confidence course and then if you think that’s easy we can do the CPAT.  

firefighting and EMS is a combination of strength and endurance. Throwing all that gear on and dragging a hose line into 400-500 degree heat and working your ass off for 25 min is nothing like working on a farm.

It’s nothing about burning calories and everything about having the endurance to pull my brother out if he goes down.


----------



## Sodbuster

Our Governor in Michigan just closed all gyms, among other places to help mitigate the spread of the virus.


----------



## AlbergSteve

Medic21 said:


> The more I think about it the questions you should be asking me how do we plan on not spreading it as paramedics going into peoples houses, in and out of hospitals, in the nursing homes, etc. Having that 2 to 14 day incubation and asymptomatic periods.  I share beds with the other two crews that work or station.  Especially now that the CDC has it knowledged the nationwide paramedic shortage and there’s no self Quarantine requirements anymore. As long as staffing allows my employer has one but, if we have two paramedics off that’s going to go out the window.  These are just the VAX if you want us around when you have a heart attack, stroke, accident, etc.  The other 15,000 runs a year we have in our service arnet gonna stop   We just get the privilege of adding to it.  So enjoy yourself Quarantine and social distancing. I’m actually worrying about the rest of the population.
> 
> deleted


Reeeally gotta ease up on the Red Bull there Medic, and apply some critical thinking.


----------



## Medic21

Sodbuster said:


> Our Governor in Michigan just closed all gyms, among other places to help mitigate the spread of the virus.


It may happen here.  Most places around here that haS been a local decision.  90% of us at my gym right now are Emergency Responders from Fire, Police, and EMS And its the only one left open in town that I know of.  Not open to anyone to walk in, have to have a key. 

If they do I guess I’ll use the departments fitness center and get the tires and dummies back out.  I spend 3-4 hours a day between two trips on my days off and 3:30am-5:30am on my work days so it’s easier. I did get the backpacking gear out and cleaned up yesterday, first trip is April but that is also an option for PT.


----------



## Medic21

AlbergSteve said:


> Reeeally gotta ease up on the Red Bull there Medic, and apply some critical thinking.


Never touch the crap.  I’m beginning to know now how Police I’ve felt for years.  Everyone on the Internet and Social Media knows how to do our job and what we should do better now.  

It was better when we were just Ambulance Drivers to everyone.


----------



## Sodbuster

Those dummies are heavier than most would imagine, nothing like dead weight to give you a good workout.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

SpaceBus said:


> There are grown ass adults doing this too. There are several stories of adult Americans going out and doing things while knowing they are infected.


There will always be a certain number of A-holes in every crisis. Happened with HIV too.


----------



## Medic21

Sodbuster said:


> Those dummies are heavier than most would imagine, nothing like dead weight to give you a good workout.


160 lbs.  google “Denver Drill” and watch a video.  That’ll make you realize real quick why you need to be in the shape of a collegiate athlete to do the job.  Then think of some of the people you’ve seen standing around in turnout gear lol.  We have them too.


----------



## SidecarFlip

Medic21 said:


> I still farm.  Come get an SCBA and turnout gear.  I’ll take you through the confidence course and then if you think that’s easy we can do the CPAT.
> 
> firefighting and EMS is a combination of strength and endurance. Throwing all that gear on and dragging a hose line into 400-500 degree heat and working your ass off for 25 min is nothing like working on a farm.
> 
> It’s nothing about burning calories and everything about having the endurance to pull my brother out if he goes down.




Really not interested.  I prefer to stay away from possibly infected people.  Better you do that than me.  I have enough to deal with keeping my life on the straight and narrow as it is.

50-55 pounders will build your endurance or give you a heart attack, real quick.


----------



## begreen

Do you remember before the Corona virus you would cough to cover up a fart in public?  

Now you fart to cover up a cough. It helps maintain social distancing.


----------



## SidecarFlip

woodnomore said:


> And you would be wrong, We have had horses here on the ranch for 25 plus years, and I run on machines to remove most of the shock of running on hard ground.




Horses are like a boat, a hole you toss money into with very little return.  I'll take my steers any day.  One, I can eat them and two, I have them for profit.


----------



## woodnomore

SidecarFlip said:


> Horses are like a boat, a hole you toss money into with very little return.  I'll take my steers any day.  One, I can eat them and two, I have them for profit.



Yeah the horses were not my idea but my daughter sure loved competing, that is the kind of joy that is well worth the cost.


----------



## kennyp2339

Medic21 said:


> If they do I guess I’ll use the departments fitness center and get the tires and dummies back out


I hated doing the tire flips, and wrecked my legs for like a week dragging a tire tied to a rope backwards, talk about eye opening, thought I was in-shape before doing that. 
As far as cardio, I never liked running or jogging, I use to jog 1.5 miles on the treadmill as a warm up when I was going to the gym all the time


----------



## festerw

Sodbuster said:


> You've obviously never have thrown a bale, it definitely gets the heart pumping, especially when throwing them 8-9 rows high.  Plus running is hard on the joints, especially the knees.



Getting your heart pumping is only part of the equation, running for 2+hours is in no way an easy endeavor.

And it isn't hard on the knees that's been thoroughly debunked. Poor form is hard on the body but that applies to many things.

Back on topic:  PA has ordered a shut down of non life sustaining businesses as of Friday and will start enforcement 8am Monday and is encouraging folks to call the Health Department if they see anyone not complying.


----------



## SidecarFlip

festerw said:


> Getting your heart pumping is only part of the equation, running for 2+hours is in no way an easy endeavor.
> 
> And it isn't hard on the knees that's been thoroughly debunked. Poor form is hard on the body but that applies to many things.
> 
> Back on topic:  PA has ordered a shut down of non life sustaining businesses as of Friday and will start enforcement 8am Monday and is encouraging folks to call the Health Department if they see anyone not complying.


Ah yes, being a snitch is the great American past time....  If people just did what they were supposed to, none of this would be happening but then we all know how that plays.


----------



## Ashful

SpaceBus said:


> Actually the One Child Policy lead to the deaths of probably millions of developed fetuses and children. Thousands were abducted and sent to orphanages to be sold to wealthy folks worldwide. It was a big deal. You are grossly misinformed about this topic, as have I been until recently. Prime put out a good documentary about the issue.


No, I was responding only to the prior claim that the Chinese government was killing infants, I know very well that poor citizens were doing this, to avoid the costs of that second child.  I’m hardly misinformed on this, several of my best friends are Chinese, having moved here from China in the last fifteen years as adults, and I lived with four Chinese immigrants in the early 2000’s as a graduate student.  One of them is the second born in his family, and another has a wife who is the second born.

So, having heard the same rumors about the “one child” policies, naturally I’ve questioned them on this subject in the past.  The answer I posted above came directly from them, within weeks of them arriving in the USA from growing up and living their entire lives in China.  If you believe it is a misinformed answer, just know it came from several of the world’s most expensively-educated misinformed Chinese citizens.


----------



## Sodbuster

And it isn't hard on the knees that's been thoroughly debunked. Poor form is hard on the body but that applies to many things.

Well you're wrong

Running puts a strain on the ligaments and connective tissue  holding the knee together. Asphalt is the worst, gravel or sand is much more preferable.


----------



## mcdougy

........Smile, it's contagious......


----------



## festerw

Sodbuster said:


> And it isn't hard on the knees that's been thoroughly debunked. Poor form is hard on the body but that applies to many things.
> 
> Well you're wrong
> 
> Running puts a strain on the ligaments and connective tissue  holding the knee together. Asphalt is the worst, gravel or sand is much more preferable.



Then a lot of doctors are wrong too. There's been multiple studies so showing no difference between runners and non runners in joint problems. There's also been a few showing improved joint health post run for people already showing joint degeneration.


----------



## SidecarFlip

begreen said:


> Do you remember before the Corona virus you would cough to cover up a fart in public?
> 
> Now you fart to cover up a cough. It helps maintain social distancing.




Gal down the road posted on the local board..... 'If you can smell their fart, you are too close'...  not enough 'social distancing'.....


----------



## SpaceBus

Ashful said:


> No, I was responding only to the prior claim that the Chinese government was killing infants, I know very well that poor citizens were doing this, to avoid the costs of that second child.  I’m hardly misinformed on this, several of my best friends are Chinese, having moved here from China in the last fifteen years as adults, and I lived with four Chinese immigrants in the early 2000’s as a graduate student.  One of them is the second born in his family, and another has a wife who is the second born.
> 
> So, having heard the same rumors about the “one child” policies, naturally I’ve questioned them on this subject in the past.  The answer I posted above came directly from them, within weeks of them arriving in the USA from growing up and living their entire lives in China.  If you believe it is a misinformed answer, just know it came from several of the world’s most expensively-educated misinformed Chinese citizens.


No, "family planners" aborted many 8-9 month fetuses, parents left babies in markets, and so on. You could have more than one child, but only rural families and two children five years apart. The one child policy was draconian and horrible. You can absolutely be well educated and misinformed. The education system in China is heavy influenced by the regime. Most Chinese people thought the one child policy was good for their country and thought they were doing their civic duty by leaving babies in markets. Most Afghans say the Taliban are great and when pressed about human rights issues, which are well known, the Afghans will say its not true. Just because the Chinese folks you know didn't speak against the one child policy doesn't mean they were well informed or even being honest with you. If the One Child policy was so great and working so well, then why was it repealed? Are all those forcibly sterilized women happy?


----------



## begreen

festerw said:


> Then a lot of doctors are wrong too. There's been multiple studies so showing no difference between runners and non runners in joint problems. There's also been a few showing improved joint health post run for people already showing joint degeneration.


Guys, take the exercise program to a new thread.


----------



## begreen

SpaceBus said:


> No, "family planners" aborted many 8-9 month fetuses, parents left babies in markets, and so on. You could have more than one child, but only rural families and two children five years apart. The one child policy was draconian and horrible. You can absolutely be well educated and misinformed. The education system in China is heavy influenced by the regime. Most Chinese people thought the one child policy was good for their country and thought they were doing their civic duty by leaving babies in markets. Most Afghans say the Taliban are great and when pressed about human rights issues, which are well known, the Afghans will say its not true. Just because the Chinese folks you know didn't speak against the one child policy doesn't mean they were well informed or even being honest with you. If the One Child policy was so great and working so well, then why was it repealed? Are all those forcibly sterilized women happy?


Another thread please or this one gets shut down or some aggressive pruning is gonna happen.


----------



## Grizzerbear

I just seen on the news that liquor stores are a essential business that will remain open. I like a beer as much as the next feller but can someone explain that to me please.


----------



## paulnlee

Grizzerbear said:


> I just seen on the news that liquor stores are a essential business that will remain open. I like a beer as much as the next feller but can someone explain that to me please.



*QUIET*


----------



## SpaceBus

paulnlee said:


> *QUIET*


Indeed, I think a lot of alcohol will be required to get through this.


----------



## kennyp2339

Grizzerbear said:


> I just seen on the news that liquor stores are a essential business that will remain open. I like a beer as much as the next feller but can someone explain that to me please.


In NJ many liquor stores also serve food and such,  was kind of scratching my head also when I heard this, because there are also many liquor stores that sell just booze also. Now for some interesting info that I've been reading about in NJ, many micro distilleries are switching from making liquor to hand sanitizer, Im wondering if the state is keeping the liquor stores open because they can take deliveries of the sanitizer one production gets going since there is an automatic network in place


----------



## Sawset

Another question:
Stay inside orders - are they for high density urban areas, suburbs, rural, is it defined? I was just out cutting and working in the woods, nearest other person 1/4 to 1/2 mile. Anyone effected by that yet and how so? Got critters to tend to - must be a definition.


----------



## festerw

Grizzerbear said:


> I just seen on the news that liquor stores are a essential business that will remain open. I like a beer as much as the next feller but can someone explain that to me please.



Ha! PA the liquor stores are state owned so they are all shut down. Beer distributors and breweries are still allowed to operate on a carry out basis.
Maybe they figured if folks drink they'll sleep it off and stay home.


----------



## kennyp2339

Sawset said:


> Another question:
> Stay inside orders - are they for high density urban areas, suburbs, rural, is it defined? I was just out cutting and working in the woods, nearest other person 1/4 to 1/2 mile. Anyone effected by that yet and how so? Got critters to tend to - must be a definition.


All the major press releases from the NYC governor have stressed that being outside is good for the mind and soul, but you need to be away from anyone, think 10ft radius is the closest you want someone to you that is not in your inner household.


----------



## PaulOinMA

Sodbuster said:


> … Those dummies are heavier than most would imagine, nothing like dead weight to give you a good workout …



Our nephew: "Why are 300-pound people always three flights up?"


----------



## Grizzerbear

paulnlee said:


> *QUIET*


Lmao



kennyp2339 said:


> In NJ many liquor stores also serve food and such,  was kind of scratching my head also when I heard this, because there are also many liquor stores that sell just booze also. Now for some interesting info that I've been reading about in NJ, many micro distilleries are switching from making liquor to hand sanitizer, Im wondering if the state is keeping the liquor stores open because they can take deliveries of the sanitizer one production gets going since there is an automatic network in place


That's interesting. I never thought of that but hopefully so. I had to double take to make sure I was reading it correctly.


----------



## Sawset

festerw said:


> liquor stores are state owned so they are all shut down.


Starting to panic.


festerw said:


> Beer distributors and breweries are still allowed to operate on a carry out basis.


New Glarus is only 40min away. We're good.


----------



## SidecarFlip

SpaceBus said:


> Indeed, I think a lot of alcohol will be required to get through this.


You mean hand sanatizer?


----------



## SidecarFlip

The governor of Ohio just imposed a mandatory 2 week stay at home deal.  Don't know if it's enforceable but why not.


----------



## woodnomore

I have 8 cases of beer and 6 tins of skoal I am preped.


----------



## Sawset

kennyp2339 said:


> Im wondering if the state is keeping the liquor stores open because they can take deliveries of the sanitizer one production gets going since there is an automatic network in place


Lack of alcohol would not be the issue.
22:00, for the retail market.


----------



## Grizzerbear

Yep kennyp, you were correct. They just showed a piece with the details.


----------



## festerw

Sawset said:


> Starting to panic.
> 
> New Glarus is only 40min away. We're good.





Grizzerbear said:


> Yep kennyp, you were correct. They just showed a piece with the details.
> 
> View attachment 258473



This weird little jag of PA is currently home to about 10 breweries and 4 distilleries within a 45 minute drive of Erie without leaving the state.

All of the distilleries here have started producing hand sanitizer for the local use.









						Erie distillers retool to make sanitizer
					

Small businesses try to do some good and keep their employees and equipment busy.




					www.goerie.com


----------



## begreen

SpaceBus said:


> There are grown ass adults doing this too. There are several stories of adult Americans going out and doing things while knowing they are infected.


And then there is this. The lowest of lows. These scum don't deserve to be in the human race.








						Federal law enforcement document reveals white supremacists discussed using coronavirus as a bioweapon
					

White supremacists discussed plans to weaponize coronavirus via “saliva,” a “spray bottle” or “laced items,” according to a weekly intelligence brief distributed by a federal law enforcement division on Feb. 17.




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## MTY

bgreen, I was just thinking this thread had gone way off the tracks when you commented about it.  thank you.


----------



## SidecarFlip

woodnomore said:


> I have 8 cases of *beer *and 6 tins of skoal I am preped.



Corona maybe?


----------



## Medic21

SidecarFlip said:


> The governor of Ohio just imposed a mandatory 2 week stay at home deal.  Don't know if it's enforceable but why not.


I took the time to read it.  It is just new wording for the exact thing they have been saying.  Nothing new really closed and nothing with any teeth to stop the general population from being out.  

I’m ok with restricting people but, I feel it’s no more than a political ploy where a governor can say in the end he did everything he could.


----------



## Ashful

festerw said:


> Ha! PA the liquor stores are state owned so they are all shut down. Beer distributors and breweries are still allowed to operate on a carry out basis.
> Maybe they figured if folks drink they'll sleep it off and stay home.


The announcement that they were closing the stores last week had exactly opposite the desired effect, a 2-day jam-packed rush on the stores, which likely created more risk of exposure than just leaving them open ever could have.  People who went to be part of that "last call" reported it was elbow-to-elbow people, all day for two days.


SidecarFlip said:


> Corona maybe?








Sawset said:


> Another question:
> Stay inside orders - are they for high density urban areas, suburbs, rural, is it defined? I was just out cutting and working in the woods, nearest other person 1/4 to 1/2 mile. Anyone effected by that yet and how so? Got critters to tend to - must be a definition.


I haven't seen any "stay inside" orders, only "no socializing" orders.  I was outside all day, both yesterday and today, and I can't see how I'd get anything mowing or gardening.


----------



## fbelec

does anyone know where the list is for essential workers


----------



## begreen

festerw said:


> This weird little jag of PA is currently home to about 10 breweries and 4 distilleries within a 45 minute drive of Erie without leaving the state.
> 
> All of the distilleries here have started producing hand sanitizer for the local use.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Erie distillers retool to make sanitizer
> 
> 
> Small businesses try to do some good and keep their employees and equipment busy.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.goerie.com


It's great to see local manufacturers stepping up to the plate. This makes a big difference. 








						Mukilteo manufacturer switches from making couches to surgical masks to help hospitals
					

MUKILTEO, Wash. – When Jeff Kaas inherited his father’s furniture manufacturing business many moons ago, he never could’ve imagined going from making stylish couches and chairs to sewing together surgical masks amid the outbreak of a deadly virus. “It’s been crazy. ” As doctors, nurses and...




					komonews.com


----------



## begreen

SpaceBus said:


> Because China held back critical data that could have helped Italian Authorities prevent so many from getting sick. The Chinese regime suppressed a lot of data and information coming out about Covid 19. They also waited weeks to tell anyone about it, long after people had already traveled out of China.


Looks like we could have had that info, if only...








						Exclusive: U.S. axed CDC expert job in China months before virus outbreak
					

Several months before the coronavirus pandemic began, the Trump administration eliminated a key American public health position in Beijing intended to help detect disease outbreaks in China, Reuters has learned.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## kennyp2339

Ashful said:


> I haven't seen any "stay inside" orders, only "no socializing" orders. I was outside all day, both yesterday and today, and I can't see how I'd get anything mowing or gardening.


I few mayors in NJ had previously issues stay inside orders, mainly the city of Newark NJ, they broke up the city from the classic wards to sections by streets, the mayor then said if your in section one, stay inside unless its an emergency. This was quickly stopped by the NJ governor, the governor saying that local area's need to be on the same page as the rest of NJ, or havoc will occur, and people will just flood other open areas instead. 
We have a storm blowing in today so hopefully people stay isolated from the rain and not in lines together at food stores and other places. 


fbelec said:


> does anyone know where the list is for essential workers


Your employer will be able to provide that info, this is all different state to state, so  your local news agency may provide better info, but in general it seems that all police, fire, ems, utility, food stores, gas stations, laundry mats, liquor stores, convenience stores, retail that sells majority of supplies for children under 5, banks, us postal, pharmacies, hardware stores, carry out prepared food, city transportation are open. 
Be advised that all of these companies maybe open but they may have there own protocols / reduced staffing , limited services, best to check ahead before going  (especially in more rural locations) and as always things are subject to change, sometimes by the hour.


----------



## Grizzerbear

begreen said:


> Looks like we could have had that info, if only...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Exclusive: U.S. axed CDC expert job in China months before virus outbreak
> 
> 
> Several months before the coronavirus pandemic began, the Trump administration eliminated a key American public health position in Beijing intended to help detect disease outbreaks in China, Reuters has learned.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com



With relations with china the way they are whose to say what really happened over there. Maybe china told us to kick rocks so I wouldn't speculate over it to much.


----------



## Medic21

fbelec said:


> does anyone know where the list is for essential workers


You could probably call the state or local hotline for your area.. Some local areas have decided to put out their own list versus state directions. This is just adding to issues in my opinion. It all reminds meOf my time in the military. Too many chiefs not enough Indians making things way too difficult and confusing.


----------



## Ashful

Some forecasts released this weekend show we’re roughly 6 - 7 weeks from peak, meaning we’ll likely be dealing with these epidemic-level restrictions perhaps another 14 weeks, or well into June.  It’ll be interesting to see the run on the stores, esp. the liquor stores which closed a week ago in my state, the day the restrictions are lifted.

Of course, I don’t know the source, authority, or accuracy of those forecasts.  Lots of inaccurate and un-cited information coming out of our television news, these days.


----------



## SidecarFlip

Ashful said:


> The announcement that they were closing the stores last week had exactly opposite the desired effect, a 2-day jam-packed rush on the stores, which likely created more risk of exposure than just leaving them open ever could have.  People who went to be part of that "last call" reported it was elbow-to-elbow people, all day for two days.
> 
> View attachment 258499
> 
> 
> 
> I haven't seen any "stay inside" orders, only "no socializing" orders.  I was outside all day, both yesterday and today, and I can't see how I'd get anything mowing or gardening.


Don't believe you can contract it by being outside and working, I do the same with working on equipment.  I believe it has to be 'close contact' with another person. * I guess sex is out too, not that it matters much at my age....*


----------



## SidecarFlip

Sawset said:


> Lack of alcohol would not be the issue.
> 22:00, for the retail market.



I take a very dim view of e plants in general.  I like the term the guy uses 'ethanol plant.  That is incorrect.  It's an alcohol plant.  The alcohol is blended with gasoline at the refinery to produce e-fuel.  They don't do anything but distill corn liquor and the by product is the mash or DDG which makes a marginal cattle feed.

We had one here, it's defunct, fine with me.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Fresh air and sunshine is good for the soul and body and viruses hate it. Just avoid the crowds.
Time to get some work done. All this anxiety will not be completely gone until there is a vaccine and that may be quite some time.


----------



## SidecarFlip

Michigan governor just locked down the entire state starting tomorrow at midnight.  Only essential services can remain open.  In my humble opinion, it's going to get worse, much, much worse.  People for some strange reason are taking this very lightly.  Bottom line is, it will KILL you and the death isn't pleasant as you drown in your own fluids.

Too bad people cannot self regulate, really VERY bad.  Lots of people are going to expire, I don't want to be one.


----------



## mcdougy

Just happened here in Ontario
 Closing of all non essential business. Starts Wednesday.
We are in worse shape than they are letting the public know IMO. Countries are starting to hoard domestic supplies, stopping export of essential goods.


----------



## Highbeam

Everybody is essential it seems. The boss wants their profit so they are wanting to call the employees essential. We are seeing this with all construction.

How hard do you want to argue that your role is not essential?

So far, each state order I’ve seen has a list of industries deemed closed. A custom list surely influenced by lobbyists.


----------



## SidecarFlip

Highbeam said:


> Everybody is essential it seems. The boss wants their profit so they are wanting to call the employees essential. We are seeing this with all construction.
> 
> How hard do you want to argue that your role is not essential?
> 
> So far, each state order I’ve seen has a list of industries deemed closed. A custom list surely influenced by lobbyists.


Always politics ingrained in everything.  Amazing isn't it.  Like I said before, all about common sense.  Common sense is sadly lacking today.  Putting politics and the almighty buck before lives is a sad fact of government in general today.

In my view, we are on just the cusp of what is going to happen.


----------



## kennyp2339

SidecarFlip said:


> Always politics ingrained in everything.  Amazing isn't it.  Like I said before, all about common sense.  Common sense is sadly lacking today.  Putting politics and the almighty buck before lives is a sad fact of government in general today.
> 
> In my view, we are on just the cusp of what is going to happen.


Excellent point, working for the power co. I moved my office to my house today, switched vehicles, now my house is a mini satellite station, I can pretty much do everything for here, or go directly to the field for trouble / repairs. This is just to remain isolated, if I get sick then its easier to see who I came in contact with as far as power co workers.
Funny today, driving home I was yet again stuck in Saturday shopping type of traffic, still may cars at any business that is open, btw I glad to see my local florist is essential, sign is lite, flowers are essential..not


----------



## SidecarFlip

You are 'essential' until you get the virus.  Then you become a statistic and you wish the hell you didn't play the 'essential' game and just hope you don't become a statistic.  I know I could be 'essential', I farm but my well being is all that is essential to me.  I can make that choice without any government intervention on my part, I'm a big boy.


----------



## johneh

Ontario locked down except for essential services
As of midnight 
Now I know why I have lived on the farm for the last 45 years  
got 1200 acres I can walk and not see another soul.


----------



## SidecarFlip

Same here.  Good to live in a non populated area.  Farm life isn't all bad.  In fact it's pretty darn good in my opinion.


----------



## Ashful

Highbeam said:


> Everybody is essential it seems. The boss wants their profit so they are wanting to call the employees essential. We are seeing this with all construction.


I've seen some PA companies rather creatively reclassifying themselves as one of the "essential" exempt-from-closure business categories.  I do not believe the state yet has a method for defining and enforcing the various classifications they have created, for businesses that can stay open versus those that must close.


----------



## festerw

Interesting video on how social distancing works.




Your browser is not able to display this video.


----------



## NickW

In this day and age of P.C., isn't everybody essential so nobody gets a hurt feeling from being labeled non-essential...?  

Pardon a moment of lightheartedness...


----------



## Highbeam

NickW said:


> In this day and age of P.C., isn't everybody essential so nobody gets a hurt feeling from being labeled non-essential...?
> 
> Pardon a moment of lightheartedness...



Starting to feel that way.


----------



## Grizzerbear

NickW said:


> In this day and age of P.C., isn't everybody essential so nobody gets a hurt feeling from being labeled non-essential...?
> 
> Pardon a moment of lightheartedness...


 Yea pretty much


----------



## SidecarFlip

Everyone is essential until they get it.....  Remember, there is NO cure, there is NO vaccine and even those that recover have decreased lung capacity and permanent lung scarring.

My wife and I are all about being hermits.  No issue with us.  With us, it is ESSENTIAL we don't get it.

Bad thing is, you can beat it and get it again, no guarantee you won't.


----------



## peakbagger

20


SidecarFlip said:


> Everyone is essential until they get it.....  Remember, there is NO cure, there is NO vaccine and even those that recover have decreased lung capacity and permanent lung scarring.
> 
> Bad thing is, you can beat it and get it again, no guarantee you won't.



I would like to see the basis for your claims with respect to "even those that recover have decreased lung capacity and permanent lung scarring" and "Bad thing is, you can beat it and get it again, no guarantee you won't" 

One of the significant issues with the pandemics spread  is that many of those who catch it are asymptomatic which means they have no symptoms and are therefore very efficient carriers. The very rough numbers I have seen are 80% of those infected with it are in this group. These people are going to recover without even knowing they had it. Perhaps you meant to say even *the minority of the population with a severe case *that recover *may have* decreased lung capacity and permanent lung scarring. Still scary but somewhat more reflective of the current reality. With respect to the" you can beat it and get it again" I think the research consensus is still out on that. The infamous CDC test series only is looking for an active specific CV-19 viral infection, it does not test for evidence of the immune response from someone who has fully recovered therefore not a lot of supported research on if someone who has fully recovered can get it again. That test is apparently being developed but is not yet on the streets.

I agree that following the recommendations to not catch it are essential to try to prevent the spread of it so it does not get into the vulnerable populations and if you need to overstate the risks to the general populations for your own purposes fine but its best not to state it as a fact when its not. Plenty of hype out there no need to repeat it.


----------



## NickW

When my wife says I am "essentially a pain in the butt" that means I am essential, correct?

Sorry, couldn't resist... I know this is extremely serious, but if I don't laugh I'll cry. There is so much stupidity going on out there right now... TP is still being hoarded. Getting the redneck bidet plans together.


----------



## begreen

Governor just locked down the state. Essential services only for the next 2 weeks. We have plenty of TP so I didn't check that aisle. Was surprised at how many bare shelves there were in the cat food section.


----------



## AlbergSteve

begreen said:


> Governor just locked down the state. Essential services only for the next 2 weeks. We have plenty of TP so I didn't check that aisle. Was surprised at how many bare shelves there were in the cat food section.


Good luck @begreen.


----------



## Medic21

SidecarFlip said:


> Don't believe you can contract it by being outside and working, I do the same with working on equipment.  I believe it has to be 'close contact' with another person. * I guess sex is out too, not that it matters much at my age....*


You can contract if from touching an infevted surface then transmitting it to yourself.  It can live on surfaces for upwards of days so you don’t even need contact with a person to get it.  

we fog our ambulances once every 24 hours and if we transport a known case the truck is out of service for fogging. That is to kill the bug on the surface. Certain procedures, ventilator, CPAP, nebulizers will aerosolize the virus and make it airborne and our PPE is not very effective in protecting us.

Indiana is locked down.  My kids are going to stay with relatives so the wife and I don’t give it to them.  My son has Asthma so he is in a high risk category even though I may never show symptoms.  Gonna be a long couple weeks.


----------



## NickW

People need to fatten their cats up just in case...


----------



## Seasoned Oak

While the number of cases continues to go up it seems the death rate in the US has slowed. We are at 1.3%   .  If as many as 80% of the cases have no or mild symptoms and are not tested or included in the numbers  the death rate could be greatly exaggerated. Evidence of of some drug successes may be slowing the death rate.


----------



## AlbergSteve

And now he's thinking about lifting restrictions. I'm not sure he's living on the same planet as the rest of us.
I wish you luck.


			https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-covid-19-coronavirus-pandemic-border-1.5507334


----------



## begreen

AlbergSteve said:


> Good luck @begreen.


Thanks. Our doubling is getting into higher numbers of people now. But the doubling here has leveled off to every 10 days. That is good news. NY is at every 2 days! Hopefully this will slow that down, but there are several states that are just starting to ramp up like Georgia, Louisiana and New Jersey.


----------



## Medic21

Seasoned Oak said:


> While the number of cases continues to go up it seems the death rate in the US has slowed. We are at 1.3%   .  If as many as 80% of the cases have no or mild symptoms and are not tested or included in the numbers  the death rate could be greatly exaggerated. Evidence of of some drug successes may be slowing the death rate.


From what we are seeing I think death rate will turn out lower here than anywhere else in the world.  Just because we will end up testing more and have a larger number of cases.  What people need to realize is the death rate in people that are at a risk has not changed.  It’s still dealt with underlying problems.  

There are very promising studies with anti malarial meds but, nothing has been peer reviews to and all have been in small levels. We can hope that it will help those that get critically ill.

If your young and healthy we don’t have much to worry about.  Don’t be caught up in a illusion you can’t kill someone you love though.


----------



## begreen

We are seeing a spike in the young and healthy as hospital admissions. They may not die in as high of a percentage as compared to older people over 70, but they sure can get seriously ill.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Medic21 said:


> From what we are seeing I think death rate will turn out lower here than anywhere else in the world.


What do you think of the Anti malaria drug that seems to be promising medic?. One doctor claiming out of 350 patients no deaths ,no ventilators.


----------



## Medic21

@bholler from the other thread I do believe it is over react acting on a whole.  But, at the end of the day the government reactions are there because too many are not respecting what can happen to a large portion of our citizens with underlying problems.  

As long as people are selfish someone will have to make a decision for them.  If people had listened and heeded cdc advise two weeks ago we wouldn’t have the spread we have now.  I know where the community spread cake from in my state and it would make you sick that the majority of cases came from one place over 8 days because people didn't listen about large gatherings.


----------



## begreen

Medic21 said:


> @bholler from the other thread I do believe it is over react acting on a whole.  But, at the end of the day the government reactions are there because too many are not respecting what can happen to a large portion of our citizens with underlying problems.
> 
> As long as people are selfish someone will have to make a decision for them.  If people had listened and heeded cdc advise two weeks ago we wouldn’t have the spread we have now.  I know where the community spread cake from in my state and it would make you sick that the majority of cases came from one place over 8 days because people didn't listen about large gatherings.


Same thing here. A group in a rural county had a meeting of 60 people around March 13th. 32 of them now are infected.


----------



## ABMax24

Seasoned Oak said:


> While the number of cases continues to go up it seems the death rate in the US has slowed. We are at 1.3%   .  If as many as 80% of the cases have no or mild symptoms and are not tested or included in the numbers  the death rate could be greatly exaggerated. Evidence of of some drug successes may be slowing the death rate.



I think it is showing that way right now because over half the US cases have been detected in the last 3 days. This will sound morbid, but many that have contracted it in the US haven't had enough time to die yet. Spain showed that trend, the death rate increased about 4 days after the case count increased. My guess is the US death rate will start to increase starting tomorrow.


----------



## Medic21

Seasoned Oak said:


> What do you think of the Anti malaria drug that seems to be promising medic?. One doctor claiming out of 350 patients no deaths ,no ventilators.


Like I said it’s not peer reviewed for accuracy.  Medical studies have to be with a grain of salt because they are usually conducted to prove a theory since it’s unethical to withhold a treatment for a placebo.   The only concrete study right now is 34 pts overseas. 

I believe it’s promising and further studies are underway All over the USA right now.  Cross your fingers.  The chit sucks to take as a preventative, trust me I took it for a year and a half, but if it works it will be a game changer.

edited because whiskey causes fat fingers on a phone.


----------



## Medic21

begreen said:


> Same thing here. A group in a rural county had a meeting of 60 people around March 13th. 32 of them now are infected.


A large number are being traced back to churches in Indiana.


----------



## begreen

Medic21 said:


> A large number are being traced back to churches in Indiana.


I've heard of old time religion, but this is getting biblical.


----------



## Medic21

begreen said:


> I've heard of old time religion, but this is getting biblical.


And all were told not to do it three weeks ago.


----------



## Medic21

ABMax24 said:


> I think it is showing that way right now because over half the US cases have been detected in the last 3 days. This will sound morbid, but many that have contracted it in the US haven't had enough time to die yet. Spain showed that trend, the death rate increased about 4 days after the case count increased. My guess is the US death rate will start to increase starting tomorrow.


You are very correct morbid or not.  There are multiple cases that died before tests came back and autopsy is revealing the cause of death.

There will be MANY more deaths before this is over.


----------



## Ashful

Medic21 said:


> Like I said it’s not peer reviewed for accuracy.  Medical studies have to be with a grain of salt...


Peer review is an enormous problem across all sciences in modern times, there simply isn't funding or money in repeating and publishing on the experiments of others, a critical step in peer review.  I have been dealing with the same issue in my area of study for two decades.  But it does appear that the attention and immediacy required by this situation is causing a reversal of that trend, there appears to be a lot of collaboration and organization around research into COVID-19.


----------



## Medic21

Ashful said:


> Peer review is an enormous problem across all sciences in modern times, there simply isn't funding or money in repeating and publishing on the experiments of others, a critical step in peer review.  I have been dealing with the same issue in my area of study for two decades.  But it does appear that the attention and immediacy required by this situation is causing a reversal of that trend, there appears to be a lot of collaboration and organization around research into COVID-19.


A lot of barriers are being broken right now.  All medical studies are hard to take in.  As I said if it involves a placebo vs treatment it is very unethical to withhold treatment so all studies in the medical field are skewed unless they are looking at historical data.  

I was involved in one with cpr years ago.  There were so many thrown out of the study, even with positive results, that should have been looked at it was ridiculous and proved to me the study was designed around expected results not blind results.


----------



## MTY

Upon occasion I have to shop.  I notice a good portion of the sales people are not young and do not appear to be overly healthy.  Are they risking becoming ill due to a sense of service, or are they seriously dependent on the income from a low paying job?    Perhaps they feel impervious to what life may throw at them.  No matter their reasons, we would be in a world of hurt without them.


----------



## bholler

Medic21 said:


> @bholler from the other thread I do believe it is over react acting on a whole.  But, at the end of the day the government reactions are there because too many are not respecting what can happen to a large portion of our citizens with underlying problems.
> 
> As long as people are selfish someone will have to make a decision for them.  If people had listened and heeded cdc advise two weeks ago we wouldn’t have the spread we have now.  I know where the community spread cake from in my state and it would make you sick that the majority of cases came from one place over 8 days because people didn't listen about large gatherings.


That I can agree with completely.  I must have misinterpreted your other statement.  My apologies


----------



## fbelec

massachusetts just put out as of tomorrow at noon everybody stays home but essential people.  i stopped by the police station to get clarity and he said i don't know best to go to the state web site. well the tv news did the clarity electricians and plumbers are essential. me being my own boss have no one to blame if out on the road. the govenor also said that there will be fines if the wrong business is still open.


----------



## begreen

Governor's list for essential personnel in WA state is pretty long. 


			https://coronavirus.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2020-03/EssentialCriticalInfrastructureWorkers.pdf


----------



## Medic21

I got a good laugh last night when I read our essential list for Indiana. “The following but, not limited too”.  

The Indiana government is also telling people if you don’t think you’re essential to argue with with your employer. So basically everyone’s essential if the employer thinks they are. Kind of a waste if you ask me.

Well maybe I should ask my employer if I am essential. As I’m driving to work for another 24 hour shift.


----------



## maple1

Sounding like NY is going to explode. From reports on the news here.

We are under State of Emergency here. Since early yesterday morning.


----------



## kennyp2339

maple1 said:


> Sounding like NY is going to explode.


unfortunately is looks inevitable, imo people just didn't take this threat seriously over the weekend, many, many photos showing folks out and about on the nice Saturday & Sunday we had, standing at parks together, playing games, waiting on lines close with each other. 
The other unfortunate thing is that from the reports and accounts I've came across, the symptoms are not as sudden, so while some maybe ill, others get ill then progress to even sicker as symptoms of pneumonia set in, this is what puts the strain on hospitals, the influx of people on there day 5 or 6 that sudden trend worse and need medical attention asap.


----------



## woodnomore

SidecarFlip said:


> Corona maybe?



Hell no, not even if it was the last beer in the cooler.


----------



## SidecarFlip

peakbagger said:


> 20
> 
> 
> I would like to see the basis for your claims with respect to "even those that recover have decreased lung capacity and permanent lung scarring" and "Bad thing is, you can beat it and get it again, no guarantee you won't"
> 
> One of the significant issues with the pandemics spread  is that many of those who catch it are asymptomatic which means they have no symptoms and are therefore very efficient carriers. The very rough numbers I have seen are 80% of those infected with it are in this group. These people are going to recover without even knowing they had it. Perhaps you meant to say even *the minority of the population with a severe case *that recover *may have* decreased lung capacity and permanent lung scarring. Still scary but somewhat more reflective of the current reality. With respect to the" you can beat it and get it again" I think the research consensus is still out on that. The infamous CDC test series only is looking for an active specific CV-19 viral infection, it does not test for evidence of the immune response from someone who has fully recovered therefore not a lot of supported research on if someone who has fully recovered can get it again. That test is apparently being developed but is not yet on the streets.
> 
> I agree that following the recommendations to not catch it are essential to try to prevent the spread of it so it does not get into the vulnerable populations and if you need to overstate the risks to the general populations for your own purposes fine but its best not to state it as a fact when its not. Plenty of hype out there no need to repeat it.


In as much as I've never had it and don't want it, only what I read, but by the same token, I personally don't know of anyone who has recovered from it so could be all smoke and mirrors.

Only in this case I don't want to find out *personally*.

If you contract it and survive, please let us know what it's like....

I'm sure the country isn't a perpetual lockdown, the market went to hell and thousands died in Italy because it isn't serious.  Maybe what I've read don't hold water, would be fine with me, just fine since I'm in the 'core' group of people who don't survive.

Would be nice, don't think so however.

I'll leave it at that and continue to treat it for what it is, a potential killer.


----------



## SidecarFlip

SidecarFlip said:


> In as much as I've never had it and don't want it, only what I read, but by the same token, I personally don't know of anyone who has recovered from it so could be all smoke and mirrors.
> 
> Only in this case I don't want to find out *personally*.
> 
> If you contract it and survive, please let us know what it's like....
> 
> I'm sure the country isn't a perpetual lockdown, the market went to hell and thousands died in Italy because it isn't serious.  Maybe what I've read don't hold water, would be fine with me, just fine since I'm in the 'core' group of people who don't survive.
> 
> Would be nice, don't think so however.
> 
> I'll leave it at that and continue to treat it for what it is, a potential killer.


Additionally, if you want a first hand (me) play by play account of what it's like to survive colo-rectal and liver cancer, I'd be more than will to share.  How would you feel about being told that you have at best a 30% chance to survive and deal with all the pain and anguish and the chemo and the surgery and being on life support and close to death but surviving it and walking away (literally) and being 100% cancer free..  we can tell you about that 'cause I've been there and did that and that is the primary driver of why I take this so seriously.  I am and always will be compromised so I sure as hell don't want it.  

For me to contract would be an almost certain death sentence.  No thank you.  been there did that, don't want to do it again.

I'm a miracle of modern medicine but I'm not about to spin the roulette wheel again.  I came away missing some parts, have a bunch of titanium inside me but I'm alive and productive and I plan on staying that way for the foreseeable future.  No colostomy bag either, no special diet, just the usual, pretty happy with the outcome but it took some serious suffering to get to where I am.

So yeah, I walked the road and I don't want it (virus) so I take very seriously, everything I read about it.  For me, contracting it amounts to a death sentence.


----------



## Ashful

Medic21 said:


> I was involved in one with cpr years ago.  There were so many thrown out of the study, even with positive results, that should have been looked at it was ridiculous and proved to me the study was designed around expected results not blind results.


It may appear that way, but I believe the reason most are removed from the study is that they’re found to have circumstances that invalidate their data, such as it was discovered they doubled up and used another treatment that might invalidate the study results.  Those people might feel or claim they are being removed for other reasons, but that’s not likely the case.

I have family in cancer research, unfortunately on both sides of the equation.  It may sound cruel or unethical, but many are barred or removed from studies of very promising cancer treatment protocols because they were previously on another treatment, or just couldn’t follow directions in their diet and daily lives.


----------



## mcdougy

This was the US briefing last night.....if you jump to the 1hr2minute mark, the press starts asking the good doctor questions. It shows some hope that they do have some sort of plan in place?  She seems fairly confident that there is some light at the end of the tunnel.
Do your best to stop the spread.


----------



## bholler

woodnomore said:


> Funny how the no politics is over looked if one agrees with the poster politics.


No we generally try to limit political discussion from both sides.  It isn't tolerated at all in the hearth forums.  But we let things go a bit more in some of the other forums


----------



## semipro

Celebrities and sports players being tested before first responders?  That's messed up!
*








						On a call with Trump officials, police chief pleads: 'Stop testing NBA players, start testing first responders'
					

At the end of an hour-long phone call with White House and Homeland Security officials, a police chief from outside San Francisco made a stark plea: “Stop testing NBA players, and start testing our first responders.” The appeal came during a call on Friday organized by the International...




					news.yahoo.com
				



*
A quote from  a commenter ( I love this). 
"People are finally opening their eyes and realizing that sports players and celebrities are not needed, however our health care workers, farmers, teachers, truckers, etc are the most valuable asset of our nation. "

Meanwhile, my elementary school teacher wife has to go into work to prepare printed educational materials that are being distributed to students by school buses.  She can't work only from home.  Many students still don't have access to online learning because of a lack of internet access or computers.


----------



## festerw

SidecarFlip said:


> In as much as I've never had it and don't want it, only what I read, but by the same token, I personally don't know of anyone who has recovered from it so could be all smoke and mirrors.
> 
> Only in this case I don't want to find out *personally*.
> 
> If you contract it and survive, please let us know what it's like....
> 
> I'm sure the country isn't a perpetual lockdown, the market went to hell and thousands died in Italy because it isn't serious.  Maybe what I've read don't hold water, would be fine with me, just fine since I'm in the 'core' group of people who don't survive.
> 
> Would be nice, don't think so however.
> 
> I'll leave it at that and continue to treat it for what it is, a potential killer.



Not personally but there are quite a few stories here.


----------



## SidecarFlip

Personally, I dislike politics in general because it tends to add polarization to any discussion but in this scenario, which by the way has never happened before (and hopefully, never again), the politics is intertwined with the end game.  I think Trump and the government in general is doing the best job they can.  After all, this entire scenario is never been broached before.

Personally speaking, I just hope we all come out the other side unscathed and whole again.  A very trying time for this country as a whole.


----------



## semipro

Scary graphic comparison: U.S. to Italy





Best viewed at the source:  https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/20/21179040/coronavirus-us-italy-not-overreacting


----------



## mrd1995

festerw said:


> View attachment 258531


I was thinking the same thing last evening.


----------



## Medic21

semipro said:


> Scary graphic comparison: U.S. to Italy
> 
> View attachment 258530
> 
> 
> Best viewed at the source:  https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/20/21179040/coronavirus-us-italy-not-overreacting


We have over 5X the population also.


----------



## begreen

woodnomore said:


> Funny how the no politics is over looked if one agrees with the poster politics.


Not funny. Too many here just ignore house rules. It's a pain in the ass to moderate, especially from a time zone 3 hrs later. Maybe time to close this thread.


----------



## ABMax24

India has now imposed a nationwide lock-down for the next 21 days.

_"Under the new measures, all non-essential businesses will be closed but hospitals and other medical facilities will continue to function as normal."_









						Coronavirus: India enters 'total lockdown' after spike in cases
					

Panic-buying grips major cities as the country brings in restrictions amid the coronavirus crisis.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## ben94122

Medic21 said:


> I’m gonna catch it as a Paramedic, I may as well keep myself in shape. It is a very small private gym that is usually empty to 3 or 4 in it when I’m there. Just wipe down before and after using equipment.





Medic21 said:


> Not mention that if I don’t bring it home the wife is an ER Nurse and Paramedic so she will give it to me.



The issue isn't you catching it, it is you spreading it to other people.


----------



## Medic21

ben94122 said:


> The issue isn't you catching it, it is you spreading it to other people.


Really?  Who woulda thought that.  Surely not a Paramedic or RN?

maybe all us emergency responders and healthcare workers should stay home and quarantine.  You know, 2 weeks with no 911 or hospitals.  That would sort out the problems real quick.  Survival of the fittest.


----------



## NickW

Medic21 said:


> Really?  Who woulda thought that.  Surely not a Paramedic or RN?
> 
> maybe all us emergency responders and healthcare workers should stay home and quarantine.  You know, 2 weeks with no 911 or hospitals.  That would sort out the problems real quick.  Survival of the fittest.


I don't think that's the point. You have previously stated you WILL get it as you are about as "essential" as it gets and will absolutely be on the front lines. You won't know when you get it and potentially will spread it around before you do know. I think the point trying to be made is work cardio at home or out running rather than potentially spreading it at the gym. Even if it's only other paramedics using the equipment, why have all of you taken out at the same time?


----------



## Ashful

begreen said:


> Not funny. Too many here just ignore house rules. It's a pain in the ass to moderate, especially from a time zone 3 hrs later. Maybe time to close this thread.


As one who has stepped on the line, if not over it a few times, I'll be the first to apologize begreen.  But we all appreciate what you're doing here.  This is a very useful thread, please keep doing your best to keep it moving forward.


----------



## woodnomore

Somebody at work thought it was a good idea to buy all the employees lunch on Thursday. Gather all the employees from 2 buildings all in one place concentrate them so if one person has all the employees will be exposed. brilliant.


----------



## Ashful

Not sure who else is watching the White House press conference right now, but I just caught the somewhat alarming remark that folks are fleeing NY to get away from the virus, but an estimated 0.1% of those people are unknowingly carrying the virus with them to new areas.  Yikes.


----------



## NickW

begreen said:


> Not funny. Too many here just ignore house rules. It's a pain in the ass to moderate, especially from a time zone 3 hrs later. Maybe time to close this thread.


Where are the house rules? I'm pretty new here and can't find anything. Are they just unwritten "no politics or religion"? Sorry if I'm dumb...


----------



## maple1

Ashful said:


> As one who has stepped on the line, if not over it a few times, I'll be the first to apologize begreen.  But we all appreciate what you're doing here.  This is a very useful thread, please keep doing your best to keep it moving forward.



Yes, this please.


----------



## begreen

NickW said:


> Where are the house rules? I'm pretty new here and can't find anything. Are they just unwritten "no politics or religion"? Sorry if I'm dumb...


Forum rules are at the top of this forum (not thread)




__





						What the Inglenook is for....and what it is not for!
					

Welcome to the Inglenook!  This forum room is for off-topic announcements and conversations! They may be slightly hearth related - or not! Examples might include:  "We had a new baby" "We are getting married" "We are getting a new house" "It's cold today in MN". "I enjoy sailing - anyone else?"...




					www.hearth.com
				



Hearth.com house rules





						Welcome! Have a seat by the fire and let's chat (and Forum Rules!)
					

Dear Friends,  Welcome to the Hearth.com forums. I hope you can learn and share with your fellow lovers of the hearth.  Although you can read most material as a "guest", there are advantages in registering using the link at the top of each page. Registering allows you to post your own topics as...




					www.hearth.com


----------



## semipro

Ashful said:


> As one who has stepped on the line, if not over it a few times, I'll be the first to apologize begreen.  But we all appreciate what you're doing here.  This is a very useful thread, please keep doing your best to keep it moving forward.


Same here. Sometimes that line is hard to discern.
Also, I much appreciate your
 efforts.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

NickW said:


> Where are the house rules? I'm pretty new here and can't find anything. Are they just unwritten "no politics or religion"? Sorry if I'm dumb...


If it could be kept civil it wouldnt be a problem ,but thats hard to do. A lot of passion on both sides tends to boil over. Dont quite understand the animosity though,why should anyone insist everyone else share their opinion. I like a good humorous political joke no matter which side its directed at ,but not the hate drivel.


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## Seasoned Oak

I just got off work ,what did i miss? Any cures?


----------



## CenterTree

RFarm said:


> Can’t make toilet paper but can make a redneck bidet out of a garden hose.  Better than nothing and quite invigorating!


  TMI


----------



## Medic21

Seasoned Oak said:


> I just got off work ,what did i miss? Any cures?


Stay home for two weeks and drink whiskey, it’s like hand sanitizer for your insides.


----------



## CenterTree

Seasoned Oak said:


> I just got off work ,what did i miss? Any cures?


----------



## CenterTree

peakbagger said:


> .... Toilet paper and tissue in general has a fundamental problem that its fluffy and full of air....


Sounds like a majority of politicians,


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Medic21 said:


> Stay home for two weeks and drink whiskey, it’s like hand sanitizer for your insides.


A friend has a craft beer joint ,im trying to drink up the stock so it dont go to waste while everything is shut down.


----------



## Medic21

CenterTree said:


> Sounds like a majority of politicians,


No that’s right before it’s flushed.


----------



## ben94122

Medic21 said:


> Really?  Who woulda thought that.  Surely not a Paramedic or RN?
> 
> maybe all us emergency responders and healthcare workers should stay home and quarantine.  You know, 2 weeks with no 911 or hospitals.  That would sort out the problems real quick.  Survival of the fittest.



You may want to reconsider using your experience and authority as a medic to advocate continuing to go to the gym despite the governor's shelter-in-place order.  I understand that you think you will most likely get exposed to the coronavirus at work, but consider whether you want to continue to advocate on a public forum for unnecessarily exposing the rest of the population to a possible presymptomatic infection.  I have to continue going to work as well, but I'm careful both at work and outside of work not to expose my high-risk self to anyone unnecessarily.


----------



## Grizzerbear

Ashful said:


> Not sure who else is watching the White House press conference right now, but I just caught the somewhat alarming remark that folks are fleeing NY to get away from the virus, but an estimated 0.1% of those people are unknowingly carrying the virus with them to new areas.  Yikes.


Yea I saw that too. The fact they likely unknowingly have the virus and are transporting it to another population was eye opening to say the least.


----------



## Medic21

ben94122 said:


> You may want to reconsider using your experience and authority as a medic to advocate continuing to go to the gym despite the governor's shelter-in-place order.  I understand that you think you will most likely get exposed to the coronavirus at work, but consider whether you want to continue to advocate on a public forum for unnecessarily exposing the rest of the population to a possible presymptomatic infection.  I have to continue going to work as well, but I'm careful both at work and outside of work not to expose my high-risk self to anyone unnecessarily.


Seeing how it closed at 4pm today under the first order we have had it doesn’t matter


----------



## peakbagger

There is a nice residential house in my neighborhood owned by a lady from NYC, she bought it after 9/11. She visits at most twice a year.Its her spare house in case things get weird in NYC. She appeared about a week and a half ago. Even  during normal visits she rarely if ever is outside.


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## Seasoned Oak

Ashful said:


> Not sure who else is watching the White House press conference right now, but I just caught the somewhat alarming remark that folks are fleeing NY to get away from the virus, but an estimated 0.1% of those people are unknowingly carrying the virus with them to new areas.  Yikes.


Got to get us one of those billboards on the  PA border  that says "turn yur sick ass around"


----------



## SidecarFlip

begreen said:


> Forum rules are at the top of this forum (not thread)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What the Inglenook is for....and what it is not for!
> 
> 
> Welcome to the Inglenook!  This forum room is for off-topic announcements and conversations! They may be slightly hearth related - or not! Examples might include:  "We had a new baby" "We are getting married" "We are getting a new house" "It's cold today in MN". "I enjoy sailing - anyone else?"...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hearth.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hearth.com house rules
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Welcome! Have a seat by the fire and let's chat (and Forum Rules!)
> 
> 
> Dear Friends,  Welcome to the Hearth.com forums. I hope you can learn and share with your fellow lovers of the hearth.  Although you can read most material as a "guest", there are advantages in registering using the link at the top of each page. Registering allows you to post your own topics as...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hearth.com


How is your son's girlfriend doing, you haven't said lately?  Ha she recovered and left the hospital?


----------



## Sawset

Ashful said:


> Not sure who else is watching the White House press conference right now, but I just caught the somewhat alarming remark that folks are fleeing NY to get away from the virus, but an estimated 0.1% of those people are unknowingly carrying the virus with them to new areas.  Yikes.


Seems the not in my backyard is voiced in a whole lot of places. Just listened to pleas from northwoods WI for people laid off to stay away from their lake homes, no room at the inn (rural hospitals, would be overwhelmed).


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## SidecarFlip

Seasoned Oak said:


> Got to get us one of those billboards on the  PA border  that says "turn yur sick ass around"


Wasn't that a fictional movie years ago 'Escape from New York'???  Guess it's not fiction now.  I heard (did not read) that north Jersey is in a tear as well.  Anywhere you have a great concentration of humanity in a confined space, things get out of hand quickly, especially during something like this event.  I'm kind of surprised the residents of NYC aren't going crazy.  Years ago I used to go there, I hauled huge forklifts for exposition riggers.  I still remember driving down Broadway through Times Square on the way to Javitz with a big forklift on a 50 ton Talbert detachable with the outriggers extended and playing dodgem with the cars at 3AM in the morning.  People there are crazy and terrible drivers too.

Nice thing about Javitz was we stayed all week in the complex.  You actually drive in and go underground with a tractor trailer and everything is there.  We ate there, slept there and never really went anywhere for the entire week.  Just getting in and out was a nightmare.


----------



## SidecarFlip

Sawset said:


> Seems the not in my backyard is voiced in a whole lot of places. Just listened to pleas from northwoods WI for people laid off to stay away from their lake homes, no room at the inn (rural hospitals, would be overwhelmed).


We have no cases here in this county yet.  Pretty sure that will change because people don't use their heads except to space their ears apart today.

It's the flu for sure, but it's not like any flu anyone has ever had before and of they get it (and survive) I bet they don't want a repeat performance.

My wife and I are being hermits.  Just because it isn't here yet don't mean it's not around.

Lots of confirmed cases north of us in Wayne, Macomb and Oakland counties but that area is like a small scale New York City, concentration of population.  Out here it's extremely rural and remote.  Just how I like it.


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## SidecarFlip

CenterTree said:


> View attachment 258555


Looks like a 'Bad hair day. to me......


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## Sawset

peakbagger said:


> There is a nice residential house in my neighborhood owned by a lady from NYC, she bought it after 9/11. She visits at most twice a year.Its her spare house in case things get weird in NYC. She appeared about a week and a half ago. Even  during normal visits she rarely if ever is outside.


Just saw the first migrating buzzard here flying overhead last week.  Kind of a coincidence. At least it wasn't circling. Yet.


----------



## AlbergSteve

ben94122 said:


> You may want to reconsider using your experience and authority as a medic to advocate continuing to go to the gym despite the governor's shelter-in-place order.  I understand that you think you will most likely get exposed to the coronavirus at work, but consider whether you want to continue to advocate on a public forum for unnecessarily exposing the rest of the population to a possible presymptomatic infection.  I have to continue going to work as well, but I'm careful both at work and outside of work not to expose my high-risk self to anyone unnecessarily.


Yeeah, good luck with that.


----------



## Grizzerbear

SidecarFlip said:


> Lots of confirmed cases north of us in Wayne, Macomb and Oakland counties but that area is like a small scale New York City, concentration of population. Out here it's extremely rural and remote. Just how I like it.


Sounds like Springfield, Ozark and Branson down here. Lots of cases their as well with 3 deaths in Springfield. I ive in the county north of Springfield with no confirmed cases yet and it's pretty remote  where I'm at but I'm sure we will see it here soon. Springfield just put out a stay at home order so hopefully that will help.


----------



## MoDoug

MTY said:


> Upon occasion I have to shop.  I notice a good portion of the sales people are not young and do not appear to be overly healthy.  Are they risking becoming ill due to a sense of service, or are they seriously dependent on the income from a low paying job?    Perhaps they feel impervious to what life may throw at them.  No matter their reasons, we would be in a world of hurt without them.



Illinois sent out a call for help, asking for retired nurses and doctors to rejoin the workforce to help combat COVID-19.  180 of them responded and will be fast tracked to get them back into service. A lot of nurses and doctors work longer than they need to out of a strong desire to serve people. They are the most susceptible group, you really have to admire them for doing this. 









						Pritzker: 180 applicants of retired nurses, doctors to rejoin workforce
					

Gov. Pritzker made the announcement on Tuesday during his daily press briefing in Chicago.




					wrex.com


----------



## johneh

My sister just turned 80 in Feb 
She is a nurse but only semi-retired
She is working a testing station 
Now there is a lady at risk


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## begreen

SidecarFlip said:


> How is your son's girlfriend doing, you haven't said lately?  Ha she recovered and left the hospital?


She is at home on oxygen as of late Sat. night. They are trying to lower the percentage needed slowly.


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## begreen

This trial for chloroquine didn't show great results. 








						Top COVID-19 aspirants chloroquine, AbbVie's Kaletra and a flu drug disappoint in clinical tests
					

Malaria drug chloroquine, AbbVie’s HIV combo therapy Kaletra and an influenza med called Arbidol are among top candidates that physicians are repurposing for the treatment of COVID-19. Despite backing from officials, though, the three have disappointed separately in two clinical trials in mild...




					www.fiercepharma.com


----------



## Seasoned Oak

begreen said:


> This trial for chloroquine didn't show great results.


Thats disappointing. They did say there are 60 plus drugs being studied right now , Hopefully something will work.


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## begreen

For those that are data-driven, this is sobering math.








						Hell is Coming: Here is the Mathematical Proof
					

Right now 2 million Americans are infected with the coronavirus. The total U.S.




					www.insidermonkey.com


----------



## SidecarFlip

Grizzerbear said:


> Sounds like Springfield, Ozark and Branson down here. Lots of cases their as well with 3 deaths in Springfield. I ive in the county north of Springfield with no confirmed cases yet and it's pretty remote  where I'm at but I'm sure we will see it here soon. Springfield just put out a stay at home order so hopefully that will help.



Only if people comply.  Highly doubtful.  People in general have the 'it's not me' attitude.  Some on here as well.  That attitude is what spreads the virus and impacts otherwise innocent people.  My philosophy is, the more remote you live (ie:  rural America) the better chance you have of surviving it.  That and acting responsibly.  None here either but then I live in a very rural area on a farm so no one around and we like it that way.  I can surround myself with nothing.  All good with me.  Don't you observe that where population is concentrated, the 'cases' increase?  Easy to ascertain why as well.


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## Medic21

begreen said:


> For those that are data-driven, this is sobering math.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hell is Coming: Here is the Mathematical Proof
> 
> 
> Right now 2 million Americans are infected with the coronavirus. The total U.S.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.insidermonkey.com


It’s very sobering but, it’s just a guess. While some of what he saying does make sense. He’s an economist not a healthcare professional.

Are state healthcare officials are warning us that our influx is going to be starting Friday and Saturday and will probably peek a week from today. That’s going to give us a 2 to 3 week grind before we get any relief.

we are also told the majority of this will be in urban areas. And those of us in the outlying counties in rural areas probably will not see a huge increase. Unfortunately having a huge jump in numbers of cases is what it’s gonna take for people to sit back and take it seriously.


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## SidecarFlip

begreen said:


> For those that are data-driven, this is sobering math.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hell is Coming: Here is the Mathematical Proof
> 
> 
> Right now 2 million Americans are infected with the coronavirus. The total U.S.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.insidermonkey.com


I'm data driven but I'm also a survivalist.  I disagree with Trump loosing the election because his opponent is senile and a blundering idiot (enough on politics) from me.  Lots of citizens will die from this and the best defense is again a good offense.  Hell is coming to those areas with concentrated population, in the cards and always has been, virus or no virus.  All it takes is some event of the magnitude of this one and population centers death rates spike up.  Not to be a smart azz but again, I'm very glad reside where I do.  being in a 'fly over' area has disadvantages but in this case, the advantages far outweigh the alternative.

I'm on an RV forum (we own an RV and have for years) and reading along on that forum (and not commenting because I'm aghast at the comments) about how those people are going RV'ing and planning cross country trips and I keep thinking to myself, you are really stupid folks, I mean really stupid.  Typical attitude though and that attitude can and will kill you presently.  My wife and I will use our RV, we will 'backyard camp. this year.  My backyard is about 43 acres of woods.  Works for me just fine.

Until the general populace wraps their minds around the gravity of the situation, many innocent and otherwise unimpacted by the virus people will die.

You cannot put it any other way.  There is no 'sugar coating' with this and no matter how much postulation there is, the death toll and the infection rate will increase so long as people exhibit that cavalier attitude of 'it's not me so hell with the Covid flu, I won't get it'.  Wrong, totally wrong.  helluva way to die too as you drown in your own bodily fluids and there is no cure, no immunization, no nothing but death.  I'll pass or at least I'll do what I need to do to survive.


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## SidecarFlip

Life for me goes on like nothing is happening.  I will farm this year just like every other year.  Nothing changes on that score.  Pretty boring for some people, going to bed at 9pm every night and getting up an 5am and getting the cattle fed and and getting equipment fired up to go plant or cultivate or whatever, day in and day out.  Nice boring regimen.

Best part about farming is, I have little to no contact with other humans, sure, I have to deal with the co-op and buy supplies and fuel but no close up contact or personal interaction, I'm basically alone, except for my wife, 95% of the time and being a loner, it's all good with me.

Life is good for us.  I want it to stay that way.


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## SidecarFlip

begreen said:


> She is at home on oxygen as of late Sat. night. They are trying to lower the percentage needed slowly.


Hopefully, she recovers.  I don't want to see her being in the hospital with all the infected Covid flu people around.  Best place to be right now if you aren't is AWAY from any hospital.


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## Medic21

SidecarFlip said:


> I'm data driven but I'm also a survivalist.  I disagree with Trump loosing the election because his opponent is senile and a blundering idiot (enough on politics) from me.  Lots of citizens will die from this and the best defense is again a good offense.  Hell is coming to those areas with concentrated population, in the cards and always has been, virus or no virus.  All it takes is some event of the magnitude of this one and population centers death rates spike up.  Not to be a smart azz but again, I'm very glad reside where I do.  being in a 'fly over' area has disadvantages but in this case, the advantages far outweigh the alternative.
> 
> I'm on an RV forum (we own an RV and have for years) and reading along on that forum (and not commenting because I'm aghast at the comments) about how those people are going RV'ing and planning cross country trips and I keep thinking to myself, you are really stupid folks, I mean really stupid.  Typical attitude though and that attitude can and will kill you presently.  My wife and I will use our RV, we will 'backyard camp. this year.  My backyard is about 43 acres of woods.  Works for me just fine.
> 
> Until the general populace wraps their minds around the gravity of the situation, many innocent and otherwise unimpacted by the virus people will die.
> 
> You cannot put it any other way.  There is no 'sugar coating' with this and no matter how much postulation there is, the death toll and the infection rate will increase so long as people exhibit that cavalier attitude of 'it's not me so hell with the Chinese flu, I won't get it'.  Wrong, totally wrong.  helluva way to die too as you drown in your own bodily fluids and there is no cure, no immunization, no nothing but death.  I'll pass or at least I'll do what I need to do to survive.


Honestly, If I didn’t have to work I’d have hooked the camper up and took off to self isolate in some national park.  I can’t think of a better way to stay away from it than that.  I am backpacking this weekend and will probably do so every 4 days off I have.  If there is no people around that’s the best isolation.


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## SidecarFlip

Medic21 said:


> Honestly, If I didn’t have to work I’d have hooked the camper up and took off to self isolate in some national park.  I can’t think of a better way to stay away from it than that.  I am backpacking this weekend and will probably do so every 4 days off I have.  If there is no people around that’s the best isolation.



Far as I know, all National Parks are closed, most private campgrounds are as well.  We aren't the 'camground' types anyway.  I look at campgrounds as concentrated population centers.  never stayed in one except when travelling to some distant point and then only to overnight.  We are 'stealth campers' for the most part.  Don't do screaming kids or lit up RV's all night or noisy generators either.  We go for the quiet and solitude but then, my wife and I are loners anyway.


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## Medic21

SidecarFlip said:


> Far as I know, all National Parks are closed, most private campgrounds are as well.  We aren't the 'camground' types anyway.  I look at campgrounds as concentrated population centers.  never stayed in one except when travelling to some distant point and then only to overnight.  We are 'stealth campers' for the most part.  Don't do screaming kids or lit up RV's all night or noisy generators either.  We go for the quiet and solitude but then, my wife and I are loners anyway.


Some are others not, each one has done their own thing on campgrounds.  All back country is open and Indiana’s state parks are open.  No offices open and online reservations and payment are required.  They are encouraging the public to use the state parks to get outside.   They are all open without fees right now.


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## MoDoug

Here in my part of Missouri, the Corp of Engineers and Missouri Department of Conservation (MDC) have two different approaches to getting out and enjoying nature. The Corp has completely shutdown using their facilities to Mark Twain Lake, they not only shutdown the boat ramps, but they also shutdown the hunter/fishermen parking lots. The parking lots are small and scattered around so people can hike into the public lands, they literally have metal gates closing them with signs saying due to the Covid-19 virus. I just don't get it. 

The Conservation Department on the other hand is waiving fishing and trout permits for almost 3 weeks to encourage people to get out and enjoy the outdoors. 









						MDC to temporarily waive fishing permits starting Friday
					

Starting March 27, people may fish in Missouri without a permit through April 15.




					mdc.mo.gov


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## johneh

The Bank where my wife works has just been closed for 2 weeks !!
The Managers brother is suspected that he has the virus 
which means all employees may have been in contact 
Luckily my wife was off at the time because I am one of the people 
who are in the high-risk zone ( age and health)


----------



## Grizzerbear

SidecarFlip said:


> Only if people comply.  Highly doubtful.  People in general have the 'it's not me' attitude.  Some on here as well.  That attitude is what spreads the virus and impacts otherwise innocent people.  My philosophy is, the more remote you live (ie:  rural America) the better chance you have of surviving it.  That and acting responsibly.  None here either but then I live in a very rural area on a farm so no one around and we like it that way.  I can surround myself with nothing.  All good with me.  Don't you observe that where population is concentrated, the 'cases' increase?  Easy to ascertain why as well.


Yea....the big cities here is where its worst....just like the rest of the country. What are folks feelings on martial law? Sadly that is what it would take to put a real dent in this thing I think.


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## Ashful

MoDoug said:


> The Corp has completely shutdown using their facilities to Mark Twain Lake, they not only shutdown the boat ramps, but they also shutdown the hunter/fishermen parking lots... I just don't get it.


Where you have boat ramps, you have people needing to use a bathroom before and after being out on the water.  It's likely the need for these ancillary facilities, or what some folks will do if they're unavailable, that has them closing the lake access.

Sucks, as I spend nearly every weekend using one boat ramp or another, to satisfy my own sailing addiction.


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## AlbergSteve

begreen said:


> For those that are data-driven, this is sobering math.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hell is Coming: Here is the Mathematical Proof
> 
> 
> Right now 2 million Americans are infected with the coronavirus. The total U.S.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.insidermonkey.com


People aren't getting the math.








						Is Poor Math Literacy Making It Harder For People To Understand COVID-19 Coronavirus?
					

Is some of the skepticism about COVID-19 Coronavirus because the math is too hard?




					www.forbes.com


----------



## Sawset

AlbergSteve said:


> People aren't getting the math.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Is Poor Math Literacy Making It Harder For People To Understand COVID-19 Coronavirus?
> 
> 
> Is some of the skepticism about COVID-19 Coronavirus because the math is too hard?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.forbes.com


"she put herself through “math boot camp” and shored up her math background. "

Early in college while taking several math and science courses - one night I woke up with the bedroom a disaster- only to realize I had been having a nightmare about loosing my variables, and had apparently spent time searching.  It can be traumatic for the newly initiated.  Imagine a high proportion of the public seeing log curves and growth rates, this chart or that, and eyes glazing over.


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## peakbagger

Various claims are made that nearly half the US citizens do not believe in evolution including the VP. No need to do the math when the alterntive is to let someone else do the thinking for them.


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## Seasoned Oak

begreen said:


> For those that are data-driven, this is sobering math.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hell is Coming: Here is the Mathematical Proof
> 
> 
> Right now 2 million Americans are infected with the coronavirus. The total U.S.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.insidermonkey.com


Doesnt seem to effectively factor in all the shutdowns already underway. True for the hot spots.  Lots of political spin thrown in with the  math.  Trump may well lose the election as they predict, but not to Joe Biden. IMO.


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## Medic21

AlbergSteve said:


> People aren't getting the math.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Is Poor Math Literacy Making It Harder For People To Understand COVID-19 Coronavirus?
> 
> 
> Is some of the skepticism about COVID-19 Coronavirus because the math is too hard?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.forbes.com


And the math said Hillary was going to be President in 2016....

too many variables...


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## begreen

The current numbers speak for themselves, regardless of wishful thinking. In New Orleans over half of the EMS staff is in quarantine.  NYC, about 10% of the police force is currently on sick leave. Both of these numbers are on the rise. These are cold, brutal facts. Other major cities will be in this situation soon. Don't make any Easter plans.

At this point it is unknown whether either candidate will make it to November. They are both over 70. Reports in the news today say that Prince Charles, heir to the throne, has been infected.


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## Seasoned Oak

Only way i can see opening any factories any time soon even in low infection states is testing every employee EVERY DAY. And with same day results . Dont think testing is that robust just yet. Widespread quick turnaround testing followed by isolation of infected is the key to any victory here.


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## Medic21

begreen said:


> The current numbers speak for themselves, regardless of wishful thinking. In New Orleans over half of the EMS staff is in quarantine.  NYC, about 10% of the police force is currently on sick leave. Both of these numbers are on the rise. These are cold, brutal facts. Other major cities will be in this situation soon. Don't make any Easter plans.
> 
> At this point it is unknown whether either candidate will make it to November. They are both over 70. Reports in the news today say that Prince Charles, heir to the throne, has been infected.


NOEMS is starting today running on the CDC guidelines of no fever anymore return to work with a mask for the 14 days.  

Our policy will be the same once we hit 25% off.


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## begreen

Medic21 said:


> NOEMS is starting today running on the CDC guidelines of no fever anymore return to work with a mask for the 14 days.
> 
> Our policy will be the same once we hit 25% off.


Hope you don't see that number. 

Though it's been said before, thank you so much for your service. I don't know what we would do without the heroic efforts of people on the front line. When this is finally over I would rather give health care workers a year's salary bonus, than bail out the cruise lines.


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## begreen

Here is another example of the value of early and extensive testing, which is still not happening here. Germany has the lowest mortality rate so far, in spite of spiraling numbers in neighboring countries. They are testing about 120,000 people a week in a country of 83 million. The US has done about 90,000 tests, total for a population of 327 million. 








						Why Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Far Lower Than In Other Countries
					

Italy's fatality rate hovers around 10%. France's is at around 5%. Yet Germany's fatality rate from COVID-19 is just 0.5%. As of March 25, there were 175 deaths and 34,055 cases.




					www.npr.org
				




Eventually, it's likely that Covid-19 cases in Germany will exceed testing capacity, but so far they have done well. Home testing kits are starting to come online so hopefully US testing will finally start ramping up.


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## Seasoned Oak

begreen said:


> The US has done about 90,000 tests, total for a population of 327 million.


Yur numbers must be way off . No way we have 62000 positive cases out of 90000 tests.That would be a 66% positive rate. Last i read the positive number was 10% of the tests taken . That would put the tested number closer to 600000. But we do need nationwide testing if we ever want to go back to work or out in public anytime soon.
"According to the American Enterprise Institute, which started a tracker of America’s testing capacity, the country could carry out 36,810 tests a day as of March 16. That total was expected to rise until it hit 100,000 or more per day as of March 27".
Still not enough yet IMO.
.


----------



## mrd1995

Still have people that are not concerned, I am starting to work from home tomorrow. Got a little flack from the guys in the shop, but the general consensus is people would rather make money instead of stay healthy. We do repair work and fab for 4 industries that were considered "life essential businesses" so we were allowed to keep the shop open. After finding out who our owner is related to today I believe a few phone calls and lunch dates were made and we were allowed to continue operations. A few of us are not happy.


----------



## semipro

Seasoned Oak said:


> Yur numbers must be way off . No way we have 62000 positive cases out of 90000 tests.That would be a 66% positive rate. Last i read the positive number was 10% of the tests taken . That would put the tested number closer to 600000. But we do need nationwide testing if we ever want to go back to work or out in public anytime soon.
> "According to the American Enterprise Institute, which started a tracker of America’s testing capacity, the country could carry out 36,810 tests a day as of March 16. That total was expected to rise until it hit 100,000 or more per day as of March 27".
> Still not enough yet IMO.
> .


Testing numbers here from the CDC. It looks like about 90k but with some yet to be reported so actual numbers will be higher. 








						Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
					

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.




					www.cdc.gov
				




I spent about 5 minutes trying to find testing numbers at AEI but couldn't - @Seasoned Oak, have a link?
They don't seem too credible when compared to the CDC anyway.


----------



## Grizzerbear

peakbagger said:


> Various claims are made that nearly half the US citizens do not believe in evolution including the VP. No need to do the math when the alterntive is to let someone else do the thinking for them.



I dont believe we came from monkeys. Guess I have no brain


----------



## Seasoned Oak

semipro said:


> I spent about 5 minutes trying to find testing numbers at AEI but couldn't -


It is hard to find ,thats why i used the projected cases from the positive outcome numbers. Highest positives were in some hot zones in NYC but those were only in the 20% area. Most positives were 10% or less of those tested. So if we have a now reported 65000 cases they must have tested at least 650000  to get to those numbers or at least close to that.   Home test kits are gearing up to go out in few days ,possibly on amazon.  And also have to remember only those with certain symptoms are even tested at all.  I hope they are testing ALL medical personnel,medic21 could  attest to that.


----------



## Medic21

Damn bastards closed the gym and I hate running.


----------



## mcdougy

The health care workers are at risk for 2 reasons....... 1. The obvious, exposure. Working with  and around the infected of covid-19.
2. Lack of training for infectious disease control. This is NO fault of the workers.  Healthcare staff contract infectious disease at work because they have made a mistake. The equipment is in place, an error is made using it.

I cannot believe the stories my wife has with her experience at work thus far. Staff have limted experience or training of dealing with a disease of this infectious Calibre.  They need to do mass training (in a extreme hurry) in order to protect the care workers. 80% of infection is caused with removal of the ppe. The assumption that " I'm a Frontline worker, I'm going to get it" is proof. This statement is driven by fear, that's driven from lack of training in this field. Again not blaming the workers who are in this situation. They should be demanding the training. The training is not super hard or intense, it's basically straight procedural. Sterile area is something they all have been trained for and can do it blindfolded in general. Infectious control is a much different concept that is not known by the mass of healthcare.  It's  not extremely hard, it's just not trained.  Covid-19 is a different beast than the world has seen in healthcare . There is a 20% infection rate amongst our Frontline help and this is a tragedy that CAN be stopped/significantly reduced with some training.


----------



## begreen

Seasoned Oak said:


> Yur numbers must be way off . No way we have 62000 positive cases out of 90000 tests.That would be a 66% positive rate. Last i read the positive number was 10% of the tests taken . That would put the tested number closer to 600000. But we do need nationwide testing if we ever want to go back to work or out in public anytime soon.
> "According to the American Enterprise Institute, which started a tracker of America’s testing capacity, the country could carry out 36,810 tests a day as of March 16. That total was expected to rise until it hit 100,000 or more per day as of March 27".
> Still not enough yet IMO.
> .


It's hard to get accurate numbers. That was slightly out of date info from the CDC website.



We were up to 103,945 tests done by March 19th by this measure.



Then this article says -
As of March 24, just over 350,000 people have been tested in the US—about 1 in 943.








						What the hell is going on with coronavirus testing in the US?
					

The country is woefully behind where it should be, and that’s going to make it much harder to track and curtail the coronavirus’s spread.




					www.technologyreview.com
				




But the source they used says the current number positive and negative combined is 472,820.
You can see that even they are having a hard time in some states with getting accurate numbers.








						About the Data
					

The COVID Tracking Project collects and publishes the most complete testing data available for US states and territories.




					covidtracking.com
				




What is disturbing is that one can't go to the CDC to get this information. Or maybe I am not looking in the right location.


----------



## Dix

Just joined those that are :furloughed" .


----------



## begreen

This is the most current data from the site. The fact that we had tested less than 26,000 by March 15th, a month and a half after declaring a national health emergency, is troubling.


----------



## mcdougy

People need to get their heads around the fact that there are no real numbers. The point is. ISOLATE.


----------



## Medic21

mcdougy said:


> People need to get their heads around the fact that there are no real numbers. The point is. ISOLATE.


The only real and accurate number is the deaths.


----------



## Highbeam

Medic21 said:


> The only real and accurate number is the deaths.



only those dead bodies that were actually tested for this particular virus.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

begreen said:


> It's hard to get accurate numbers. That was slightly out of date info from the CDC website.
> What is disturbing is that one can't go to the CDC to get this information. Or maybe I am not looking in the right location.


Just heard 432000 on the news but who knows with the news today. That would be inline with the 62000 cases and a 10 to 20% positive rate.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Got some insight from my son today who works at Tyson Warehouse has to how they are handling it in Pa. He said everyones temp is taken when they show up for work ,anyone who is over a certain temp is sent home and urged to get tested and can stay off as long as necessary. The plant is working full steam ahead ,about 3 out of 100 off so far.


----------



## AlbergSteve

The rest of the world would love to get along with you guys, but here's another example of a sociopathic government not playing nice in the sand box. WTF, and you wonder why China won't help you out? It's like dealing with children that can't get their own way.



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/g7-covid-19-coronavirus-wuhan-pompeo-trump-1.5510329


----------



## Seasoned Oak

AlbergSteve said:


> The rest of the world would love to get along with you guys, but here's another example of a sociopathic government not playing nice in the sand box. WTF, and you wonder why China won't help you out?
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/g7-covid-19-coronavirus-wuhan-pompeo-trump-1.5510329


Can we still call chinese food "chinese food " or is that racist too. China already help us to 1000 dead by denying it existed for a month or more.  Get ready for some serious backlash against china,the world will not so easily forgive as the US left wing media does once this is over. Italy for one.


----------



## Grizzerbear

Seasoned Oak said:


> Can we still call chinese food "chinese food " or is that racist too.


Easy now....your going to hurt someone's feelings.


----------



## begreen

Seasoned Oak said:


> Can we still call chinese food "chinese food " or is that racist too. China already help us to 1000 dead by denying it existed for a month or more.  Get ready for some serious backlash against china,the world will not so easily forgive as the US left wing media does once this is over. Italy for one.


We own part of this as we screwed ourselves by pulling out the CDC frontline epidemiologist last July that was stationed in China. Stop the xenophobic, political  crap or get out of the thread.


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Grizzerbear said:


> Easy now....your going to hurt someone's feelings.


As another poster said here earlier, its only allowed one way. Those are  the (unwritten) rules.


----------



## begreen

Seasoned Oak said:


> As another poster said here earlier, its only allowed one way. Those are  the (unwritten) rules.


That is no excuse. Report transgressions, don't whine in retrospect.


----------



## Ashful

As someone who does math for a living, I’ll just say that “hell is coming” article is based on some very highly leveraged numbers.  It is very unlikely his numbers will be anywhere near accurate, based on extrapolation of an exponential function where the base is assumed as an invalidated fraction of the current death count, but that doesn’t matter since his underlying point is in fact correct.  The number of cases today is likely more accurately counted as some fraction of the current death toll, which is very close to his predicted number as of today, and likely many times higher than the official estimates.


----------



## bholler

Seasoned Oak said:


> Can we still call chinese food "chinese food " or is that racist too. China already help us to 1000 dead by denying it existed for a month or more.  Get ready for some serious backlash against china,the world will not so easily forgive as the US left wing media does once this is over. Italy for one.


And how long did our leaders dismiss it as no more than the common flue?


----------



## MTY

Idaho went on lockdown today.  Somehow firearms businesses are essential.  I'd rather be furloughed than fubared.


----------



## peakbagger

I was talking to a friend who's child works in an Amazon warehouse, she would normally be involved with making sure the workers are healthy. She has had a very minor case of asthma over the years but she cannot go into work as they are are spraying so much disinfectants into the warehouse that she cant breathe.


----------



## Sawset

An interesting interactive cases map by county:




__





						WunderMap® | Interactive Weather Map and Radar | Weather Underground
					

Weather Underground’s WunderMap provides interactive weather and radar Maps for weather conditions for locations worldwide.



					www.wunderground.com
				




Change the lat/lon setting in the link to initialize in a different area.


----------



## Ashful

peakbagger said:


> I was talking to a friend who's child works in an Amazon warehouse, she would normally be involved with making sure the workers are healthy. She has had a very minor case of asthma over the years but she cannot go into work as they are are spraying so much disinfectants into the warehouse that she cant breathe.


That’s a shame for her, but with Amazon becoming the primary lifeline for so many right now to do their shopping while keeping  with stay at home orders, I’m glad to hear Amazon is at least making some efforts to disinfect their product wrappings and containers.


----------



## Sawset

From an ER RN central WI.


----------



## moresnow

Feeling compelled to join this conversation. My daughter is a nurse. She has been keeping mom and dad in the loop daily as we have kept her oldest here with us for a week or so. 
 Much like others in the health care industry are,  she is working working in a insane atmosphere without proper PPE.  As a mother of 3 and a wife she is terrified. The crazy part is that the restrictions put on testing possible Cov19 patients is beyond retarded. Almost impossible. The daughter got in a verbal battle yesterday with the local testing authority that resulted in her patient receiving the test. Trisha was threatened with disciplinary action or loss of her job for being insistent. She laughed in the ladies face and told her she was delusional. Fire me. Please.


----------



## SpaceBus

moresnow said:


> Feeling compelled to join this conversation. My daughter is a nurse. She has been keeping mom and dad in the loop daily as we have kept her oldest here with us for a week or so.
> Much like others in the health care industry are,  she is working working in a insane atmosphere without proper PPE.  As a mother of 3 and a wife she is terrified. The crazy part is that the restrictions put on testing possible Cov19 patients is beyond retarded. Almost impossible. The daughter got in a verbal battle yesterday with the local testing authority that resulted in her patient receiving the test. Trisha was threatened with disciplinary action or loss of her job for being insistent. She laughed in the ladies face and told her she was delusional. Fire me. Please.


My wife is a nurse that is thankfully staying home. We couldn't imagine being forced to work in those conditions without PPE. Just madness, threatening the lives of healthcare workers' families.


----------



## begreen

peakbagger said:


> I was talking to a friend who's child works in an Amazon warehouse, she would normally be involved with making sure the workers are healthy. She has had a very minor case of asthma over the years but she cannot go into work as they are are spraying so much disinfectants into the warehouse that she cant breathe.


Seven Amazon warehouse workers have already passed. They need to spray.


----------



## begreen

moresnow said:


> Feeling compelled to join this conversation. My daughter is a nurse. She has been keeping mom and dad in the loop daily as we have kept her oldest here with us for a week or so.
> Much like others in the health care industry are,  she is working working in a insane atmosphere without proper PPE.  As a mother of 3 and a wife she is terrified. The crazy part is that the restrictions put on testing possible Cov19 patients is beyond retarded. Almost impossible. The daughter got in a verbal battle yesterday with the local testing authority that resulted in her patient receiving the test. Trisha was threatened with disciplinary action or loss of her job for being insistent. She laughed in the ladies face and told her she was delusional. Fire me. Please.


The NY Times posted a video by a  young doctor last night of working conditions at a major Queens hospital. She was having to wear her N95 mask for multiple days and has the same issues with lack of testing. This has caused exposure when they are triaging patients that come in with symptoms for what appear to be non-Covid related illnesses, like stomach cramps. This is done with minimal protection. They later find out via Xrays that the patient is infected. She also reported that the majority of the people they are seeing are in the 30-40yr old range. The lines to the ER are very long. Like over 100 people. They are not getting enough PPE or ventilators, in spite of promises. This is the US she sobbed, it's more like a third world country.

This is unsustainable. People need to lockdown and isolate to slow this beast down or when they need a hospital they may be SOL.


----------



## Medic21

I think some people are being pushed into a false sense of security in the locals areas here.  They see the number of cases but, don’t realize what’s behind that number.  They are still only seeing number of those hospitalized and not seeing that the regional medical centers are close to being overwhelmed.  In Fort Wayne Indiana there are 10 cases in the county of 400,000+.  They have 36 Medical ICU beds in the county between 2 major trauma centers.  All beds are full with vented pts.  The other issue is the number of actual cases that were not tested.  

We are told to expect an explosion of cases in the next 6 days due to testing lag.


----------



## begreen

Germany has increased its ability to test for the new coronavirus to 500,000 a week.


----------



## kennyp2339

I have tons of empathy for medical workers, civil servants and people that preform critical jobs, jobs that need to go on with or without this virus. 
I think it is tough for the general population to realize that this virus battle is being treated like a war, unfortunately the front lines are being over ran, there's nothing that can be done since supplies are in very short order, and by default the front line was more less going to get over ran; its very frustrating for many to understand this, we are the best country in the world, yet we're being over ran by an enemy that can that you can not see, you can not hear, you can not smell, and unfortunately once you realize that the enemy is close, its to late. I have my own sentiments on preparedness, but I hate to say that even if we had a pandemic plan in place and saw this virus as a threat as early as September (which it did not exist btw) we would still be severely impacted by this. 
Police yourself is the best advice, break the habit of touching your face, get into the habit of washing your hands, stop talking quietly, be load so no one else has to get closer then 6ft, isolate your self from the people outside your immediate household as much as possible.


----------



## paulnlee

US ready for potential coronavirus outbreak, CDC assures lawmakers - Roll Call
					

Federal health officials told lawmakers Friday that they have the resources they need to address the spread of the virus originating from Wuhan, China, although senators acknowledged the potential need for supplemental funding down the road. The briefing for roughly two dozen senators came as...




					www.rollcall.com
				




for your listening pleasure


----------



## mcdougy

The shortage in ppe and equipment is real. All countries are being told the same thing......we've ordered it. I'm sure it will come, but the concern is when?  Testing is part of the solution, but lacking equipment and supplies isn't getting it done.  I'm starting to wonder if they are scrambling to be prepared for wave 2 and are going to limp thru this first wave taking high casualty. I'm an optimistic person and continue to have to prop my ICU nurse wife up, she is no softy by any means. She has seen horrific things for 25 years, a keener, has extensive infectious disease training and she is SCARED. Something that I have never seen before. Sars, H1N1, Merv's, and Ebola never made her flinch. Even walking into a room with 2 patients with suspected Ebola  in her space suit she signed up for. An amazing woman, the one type of nurse you hope you have in a time of need, not a cowboy, not doing it to be a hero, doing it because she truly wants to make a patients situation the best and safest, and she's scared? Something is wrong, very wrong. Again I state, Do your extreme best to  ISOLATE. This situation is REAL. The politics and CEOs will not get us thru this. Frontline workers will be making snap decisions to get us thru this, and they WILL get us thru this chaos. Our job is to ISOLATE.


----------



## woodnomore

Went to the hardware store today to get some part to complete the washing machine install. Got my parts figured I would check out the housewares and bingo scored a pack of Charmin extra strong mega rolls. Fridge and freezer fully stocked, beer fridge stocked, enough TP for 2 plus weeks, working wash machine. Life is good today.


----------



## kennyp2339

woodnomore said:


> Went to the hardware store today to get some part to complete the washing machine install. Got my parts figured I would check out the housewares and bingo scored a pack of Charmin extra strong mega rolls. Fridge and freezer fully stocked, beer fridge stocked, enough TP for 2 plus weeks, working wash machine. Life is good today.


1000 people would say the other, I don’t want to diminish your windfall nor make light of the situation, if I can give any advice right now, my advice is to stock up on essentials, this time Tuesday in the NE we’re going to be hurting and the media is going to be running wild, I would think that service disruptions in the area will occur due to many reports of all the same thing.


----------



## MTY

I am dealing with people who still think this is a make believe situation.  I went to Costco today for cat food.  They did not have any.  Costco is doing a good job locally.  They are sanitizing the carts, only letting so many in at once, they have set senior hours and at the checkout they enforce a 6 foot rule.  
However, back in the aisles the old farts were gathering in large groups to chat.  
At work, I have two employees in addition to myself.  Two of us have people at home with health issues.  If we take something home, they are goners.  The business is listed as essential during the lockdown, but my feeling is that my first responsibility is to the three of us.  The customers apparently have other ideas as they are in many ways acting like as long as they get their wants satisfied immediately the rest of the world can FO.  So, I shut the place down and the hue and cry is starting.  
There is good money to be made, but it would be hard to spend it from 6 feet under.  
I had to sign a paper at the bank yesterday.  The bank person made a remark that this was starting to get real, and that she was having trouble believing it.  I told her that every time I told her over the last several weeks that this would get ugly, she looked at me like I was crazy.  People need to wake up.


----------



## AlbergSteve

MTY said:


> I am dealing with people who still think this is a make believe situation.  I went to Costco today for cat food.  They did not have any.  Costco is doing a good job locally.  They are sanitizing the carts, only letting so many in at once, they have set senior hours and at the checkout they enforce a 6 foot rule.
> However, back in the aisles the old farts were gathering in large groups to chat.
> At work, I have two employees in addition to myself.  Two of us have people at home with health issues.  If we take something home, they are goners.  The business is listed as essential during the lockdown, but my feeling is that my first responsibility is to the three of us.  The customers apparently have other ideas as they are in many ways acting like as long as they get their wants satisfied immediately the rest of the world can FO.  So, I shut the place down and the hue and cry is starting.
> There is good money to be made, but it would be hard to spend it from 6 feet under.
> I had to sign a paper at the bank yesterday.  The bank person made a remark that this was starting to get real, and that she was having trouble believing it.  I told her that every time I told her over the last several weeks that this would get ugly, she looked at me like I was crazy.  People need to wake up.


Take a seat, buckle up, you're in for one hell of a ride.


----------



## mcdougy

I am deeply worried for the u.s.a.
I have family living there.  The severity is much greater than the people have been led to believe.


----------



## woodnomore

kennyp2339 said:


> 1000 people would say the other, I don’t want to diminish your windfall nor make light of the situation, if I can give any advice right now, my advice is to stock up on essentials, this time Tuesday in the NE we’re going to be hurting and the media is going to be running wild, I would think that service disruptions in the area will occur due to many reports of all the same thing.



I am blessed in that I do not live in a high density area, out in the country we are pretty self reliant. I have not bought meat from a grocery store in years. I go to the grocery store for fresh produce and there is no shortage of that, now if I wanted junk food like ramen or mac and cheese that is hard to come by in the grocery store.


----------



## Ashful

woodnomore said:


> I go to the grocery store for fresh produce and there is no shortage of that, now if I wanted junk food like ramen or mac and cheese that is hard to come by in the grocery store.


A lot of people are likely afraid to handle or eat the produce right now, I suspect.


----------



## ABMax24

Ashful said:


> A lot of people are likely afraid to handle or eat the produce right now, I suspect.



It also doesn't keep long enough to hoard it like all the other prepackaged food.


----------



## kennyp2339

woodnomore said:


> I am blessed in that I do not live in a high density area, out in the country we are pretty self reliant. I have not bought meat from a grocery store in years. I go to the grocery store for fresh produce and there is no shortage of that, now if I wanted junk food like ramen or mac and cheese that is hard to come by in the grocery store.


I'm envious of that, I live in what people from our area call a rural setting, but compared to the rest of the country we are not rural at all, our town is 68 sq miles, with a population of 22k, one local food store, a few post offices, and a hand full of gas stations, its bound to happen that even in our "rural setting" that someone will be crossing someone else, doesn't help that our town being approx. 60 miles from nyc has the majority of people work / commute to that area, we are what is called a bedroom community and many jobs that people do are service related so working from home prob only affects half the commuter workforce. 
Its important to realize were you live the demographics of the people, I feel safe here, but Im not running out to the food store every day like my neighbor, so my risk is much lower then there's.


----------



## woodnomore

Ashful said:


> A lot of people are likely afraid to handle or eat the produce right now, I suspect.



Wash your produce, I am not eating salads more like cauliflower broccoli etc veggies that we cook. I also quit buying the daily newspaper to not expose myself going into the store and from the paper itself. There are certainly advantages to living in an unincorporated township where nothing ever happens. We have 1 confirmed case in the county I live in. Plus as we go thru this you have to enjoy the little victories like scoring a pack of TP.


----------



## peakbagger

No proof anyone can catch CV-19 from produce or takeout food. Unless someone is voluntarily hanging out in hospital every indication is the vector is a direct transmission of mucous on airborne droplets from the lungs of the infected person to another unfortunate victim.


----------



## Grizzerbear

kennyp2339 said:


> I'm envious of that, I live in what people from our area call a rural setting, but compared to the rest of the country we are not rural at all, our town is 68 sq miles, with a population of 22k, one local food store, a few post offices, and a hand full of gas stations, its bound to happen that even in our "rural setting" that someone will be crossing someone else, doesn't help that our town being approx. 60 miles from nyc has the majority of people work / commute to that area, we are what is called a bedroom community and many jobs that people do are service related so working from home prob only affects half the commuter workforce.
> Its important to realize were you live the demographics of the people, I feel safe here, but Im not running out to the food store every day like my neighbor, so my risk is much lower then there's.


We are pretty remote here. 22 miles from the nearest town of about 3500 with out a neighbor within a 1/4 mile. But in a way that seems to give folks a false sense of security. I'm not implying you are though. The number of cases are creeping closer to our county nearly every day with three bordering counties with confirmed cases. I have come to the conclusion that it will eventually make it's way to every community. Hopefully it doesn't get as bad in rural areas but if it does....hopefully it will at least happen after our major cities around the country are starting to see some relief so our hospitals can have a little relief.


----------



## Grizzerbear

Missouri National Guard mobilized to assist state with COVID-19 pandemic
					

ST. LOUIS (AP) – Missouri braced itself for a surge of coronavirus patients as the number of deaths grew to nine, with the governor mobilizing the state’s National Guard and a top St. L…




					fox2now-com.cdn.ampproject.org
				




Missouri national guard has been mobilized.


----------



## NickW

That's kind of my take on it too - nearly everyone will get it. It's just if we all get it at the same time the healthcare system will collapse resulting in more fatalities. The whole "flatten the curve" will make it a longer pandemic, but hopefully allow better treatment of all that require treatment plus time to development treatments and maybe a vaccine. It has gotten into retirement homes in our area - NOT GOOD! I got a bit upset with my bro-in-law the other day when he started crabbing about the shutdowns and how the economy is going to suffer... another one who has too narrow of a view and just doesn't get it... Sorry, construction isn't essential. It should be shut down for a month. They'd make up 2 weeks working OT and finish 2 weeks behind schedule. Minor inconvenience to slow the spread...


----------



## CaptSpiff

kennyp2339 said:


> I'm envious of that, I live in what people from our area call a rural setting, but compared to the rest of the country we are not rural at all, our town is 68 sq miles, with a population of 22k, one local food store, a few post offices,  .....


Yup, "rural" is where the US Postal service hires private contractors who pop a sign on top of their right-hand-drive Subaru.  



kennyp2339 said:


> ... its bound to happen that even in our "rural setting" that someone will be crossing someone else, doesn't help that our town being approx. 60 miles from nyc has the majority of people work / commute to that area, we are what is called a bedroom community and many jobs that people do are service related so working from home prob only affects half the commuter workforce.


I have a friend in NYC (Manhattan) who lives in a pretty posh apartment building with a doorman. In chatting with the doorman she learned almost half the building is now empty, most having "gotten outta town". People of means have options. Probably second homes in your bedroom communities.


----------



## Grizzerbear

NickW said:


> It has gotten into retirement homes in our area -


 Same here. A buddy I work with....his wife's great GPA is in a local nursing home. He said they are having to stay to their rooms. No one in or out. He said folks are staying in contact by going to their room windows....still shut...while on the phone to visit.


----------



## Sodbuster

Henry Ford Health system has said it will ration access to ventilators based on the health of the patient, and their ability to survive the infection. Those deemed not able to recover will  be made "comfortable".


----------



## SpaceBus

My wife and I have been working on a rudimentary livestock fence and building a chicken coop. We've been wanting a few animals, chickens, a few alpaca, maybe some pea fowl, but it seems more pressing now.


woodnomore said:


> Wash your produce, I am not eating salads more like cauliflower broccoli etc veggies that we cook. I also quit buying the daily newspaper to not expose myself going into the store and from the paper itself. There are certainly advantages to living in an unincorporated township where nothing ever happens. We have 1 confirmed case in the county I live in. Plus as we go thru this you have to enjoy the little victories like scoring a pack of TP.


We live near a town of 2,000 and our "town" is even less. I suspect after this is all done our small town will become unorganized territory or a TP.


----------



## SpaceBus

CaptSpiff said:


> Yup, "rural" is where the US Postal service hires private contractors who pop a sign on top of their right-hand-drive Subaru.
> 
> 
> I have a friend in NYC (Manhattan) who lives in a pretty posh apartment building with a doorman. In chatting with the doorman she learned almost half the building is now empty, most having "gotten outta town". People of means have options. Probably second homes in your bedroom communities.


Yeah, they are here in Downeast Maine now! No wonder the count keeps going up, just kidding, I know it would have gone up anyway.


----------



## mcdougy

All these measures are necessary. The scary part is they are many weeks behind. The U.S. has taken the slow approach in comparison for reasons unknown.


----------



## mcdougy

Sodbuster said:


> Henry Ford Health system has said it will ration access to ventilators based on the health of the patient, and their ability to survive the infection. Those deemed not able to recover will  be made "comfortable".



Again not wanting to sound like a broken record or that the sky is falling but....... Conversations about DNR status with your loved ones are responsible right now. 3 levels basically.  It's reasonable to talk about if/ how long you are willing to be machine dependant. Given the situation we are all entering, this is a conversation that allows family to know your wishes and theirs.  Having to make a decision of taking someone off of machinery while not necessarily knowing their own words /wishes is horrible.


----------



## Sodbuster

mcdougy said:


> Again not wanting to sound like a broken record or that the sky is falling but....... Conversations about DNR status with your loved ones are responsible right now. 3 levels basically.  It's reasonable to talk about if/ how long you are willing to be machine dependant. Given the situation we are all entering, this is a conversation that allows family to know your wishes and theirs.  Having to make a decision of taking someone off of machinery while not necessarily knowing their own words /wishes is horrible.



I agree with having an advanced directive, it's a very smart thing to have. What's scary in this scenario from Henry Ford is a group of Dr's make the call, not you or your family. If you are deemed too unhealthy to survive, you will not get a ventilator, just medicine, I assume Morphine or something of that sort to make you comfortable.


----------



## Medic21

Sodbuster said:


> I agree with having an advanced directive, it's a very smart thing to have. What's scary in this scenario from Henry Ford is a group of Dr's make the call, not you or your family. If you are deemed too unhealthy to survive, you will not get a ventilator, just medicine, I assume Morphine or something of that sort to make you comfortable.


This is a last resort for triaging.  It’s not a decision or situation we take lightly in the medical field.  It also not you make and sleep well at night.  Trust me I’ve had to do it in the field.  

If we allow two to die by caring for a lost cause while someone else dies from lesser injuries we failed all.


----------



## paulnlee

Who was that nutty broad that mentioned "death panels"


----------



## Sodbuster

Medic21 said:


> This is a last resort for triaging.  It’s not a decision or situation we take lightly in the medical field.  It also not you make and sleep well at night.  Trust me I’ve had to do it in the field.
> 
> If we allow two to die by caring for a lost cause while someone else dies from lesser injuries we failed all.



Yes, that is what they are saying, that this is a last resort, but it may come to this. I think it may help people stay home and heed the quarantine order our governor put in place. Up until now, people have been largely ignoring it.


----------



## Sodbuster

paulnlee said:


> Who was that nutty broad that mentioned "death panels"



This is not the same as a death panel, it doesn't matter if you have top of the line insurance or medicaid, this is simple math, we only have so may ventilators to go around. One Dr. figured out a way to hook one ventilator to two patients at once.


----------



## peakbagger

Sodbuster said:


> Henry Ford Health system has said it will ration access to ventilators based on the health of the patient, and their ability to survive the infection. Those deemed not able to recover will  be made "comfortable".



Your reference is missing a lot of context.  Its a contingency plan for what is hoped never happens. One the key tenet of disaster planning is look at every possibility in advance, make a rational plan in advance and hope it never happens. The short form is "fail to plan, plan to fail".
If someone wants the background on this, this link is going to supply background. https://www.clickondetroit.com/news...solute-worst-case-scenario-policy-not-active/

Its real easy to get caught up in the hype, if you just want to attract attention to yourself then keep on getting sucked in, on the other hand its not that hard to do your homework and actually contribute useful information to this thread.


----------



## Grizzerbear

peakbagger said:


> Your reference is missing a lot of context.  Its a contingency plan for what is hoped never happens. One the key tenet of disaster planning is look at every possibility in advance, make a rational plan in advance and hope it never happens. The short form is "fail to plan, plan to fail".
> If someone wants the background on this, this link is going to supply background. https://www.clickondetroit.com/news...solute-worst-case-scenario-policy-not-active/
> 
> Its real easy to get caught up in the hype, if you just want to attract attention to yourself then keep on getting sucked in, on the other hand its not that hard to do your homework and actually contribute useful information to this thread.



Agreed.





__





						'Assure the American people': Deborah Birx condemns reports of do-not-resuscitate orders
					

There is no evidence that hospitals need to consider facilitywide do-not-resuscitate orders, according to the top doctor on the White House coronavirus task force.




					www-washingtonexaminer-com.cdn.ampproject.org


----------



## mcdougy

Yes, medicine and machinery can be a rabbit hole people enter unknowingly at times. I agree that there isn't a doctor on the planet that takes anything like this wilfully. Your hearing about a worst case scenario.  Unfortunately it could truly happen in these times. Again what do you think your loved ones decision would reasonably be? Often the answer is obvious....me....I'm full resucitation, machinery for a 4 week maximum. My 75 year old dad with late stage Parkinson's disease, catheter, wheelchair and living in a nursing home he is basic resucitation with machinery for a week. Very basic conversation but brutal at the bedside. In November we were unprepared when my father was hospitalized and asked about feeding tubes. My dad was concious but delusional so the doctors made us answer the questions......talk about a moral gut ripping horrible position to be in ...even when the answer was somewhat obvious. He thankfully recovered  and no feeding tube went in. Doing well (for him) at his nursing home today. 
But even recalling the situation makes me want to puke.


----------



## Sodbuster

peakbagger said:


> Your reference is missing a lot of context.  Its a contingency plan for what is hoped never happens. One the key tenet of disaster planning is look at every possibility in advance, make a rational plan in advance and hope it never happens. The short form is "fail to plan, plan to fail".
> If someone wants the background on this, this link is going to supply background. https://www.clickondetroit.com/news...solute-worst-case-scenario-policy-not-active/
> 
> Its real easy to get caught up in the hype, if you just want to attract attention to yourself then keep on getting sucked in, on the other hand its not that hard to do your homework and actually contribute useful information to this thread.



Why would I use something like this to draw attention to myself? What purpose would that serve? This was part of an internal document that was leaked. In retrospect, I should have just included the link. I'm not sure how things are where you live, but in the heavily populated greater Detroit area, they are spreading quickly.


----------



## Sodbuster

mcdougy said:


> Yes, medicine and machinery can be a rabbit hole people enter unknowingly at times. I agree that there isn't a doctor on the planet that takes anything like this wilfully. Your hearing about a worst case scenario.  Unfortunately it could truly happen in these times. Again what do you think your loved ones decision would reasonably be? Often the answer is obvious....me....I'm full resucitation, machinery for a 4 week maximum. My 75 year old dad with late stage Parkinson's disease, catheter, wheelchair and living in a nursing home he is basic resucitation with machinery for a week. Very basic conversation but brutal at the bedside. In November we were unprepared when my father was hospitalized and asked about feeding tubes. My dad was concious but delusional so the doctors made us answer the questions......talk about a moral gut ripping horrible position to be in ...even when the answer was somewhat obvious. He thankfully recovered  and no feeding tube went in. Doing well (for him) at his nursing home today.
> But even recalling the situation makes me want to puke.



I hope I'm never put in that situation.


----------



## CaptSpiff

Medic21 was responding to a comment on the "leaked contingency plans of the Henry Ford Health System":


Medic21 said:


> This is a last resort for triaging.  It’s not a decision or situation we take lightly in the medical field.  It also not you make and sleep well at night.  Trust me I’ve had to do it in the field. Medic21



You are not understating that one bit!
I was a Volunteer Fire Fighter and responded to more car wrecks than I can recall. Two that stay with me were very bad multi-car scenes where only one ambulance responded. The Chief had to make the decision on who got to ride back and who had to wait. I saw the pain on his face and was glad those decisions weren't on me.


----------



## Medic21

CaptSpiff said:


> Medic21 was responding to a comment on the "leaked contingency plans of the Henry Ford Health System":
> 
> 
> You are not understating that one bit!
> I was a Volunteer Fire Fighter and responded to more car wrecks than I can recall. Two that stay with me were very bad multi-car scenes where only one ambulance responded. The Chief had to make the decision on who got to ride back and who had to wait. I saw the pain on his face and was glad those decisions weren't on me.


are you saying I don’t understand it?

move made the decision in combat of who got treated and who didn’t based in available supplies and personnel. Letting two Marines die that could have lived based on have a second medi vac and not just me. But could have is not a luxury in combat when two will if treated.

I’ve also had to leave people lay in a median to treat ones that were “salvageable” vs those that were alive yet with “injuries incomparable with life”.

So yes, I understand it. Still have the privilege of reliving those from time to time.

The leaked plans are the ugly truth of this situation now gets out of hand.  It sucks and I hope it does not come to it.


----------



## kennyp2339

Medic21 said:


> are you saying I don’t understand it?
> 
> move made the decision in combat of who got treated and who didn’t based in available supplies and personnel. Letting two Marines die that could have lived based on have a second medi vac and not just me. But could have is not a luxury in combat when two will if treated.
> 
> I’ve also had to leave people lay in a median to treat ones that were “salvageable” vs those that were alive yet with “injuries incomparable with life”.
> 
> So yes, I understand it. Still have the privilege of reliving those from time to time.
> 
> The leaked plans are the ugly truth of this situation now gets out of hand.  It sucks and I hope it does not come to it.


You are spot on!! I was alluding to this yesterday without saying it, unfortunately places like NYC are going to be the sacrificial lambs as far as aide, like the full compliment of ventilators, but the lesson learned in NYC will be great for places like Denver, Houston, Dallas  ect...


----------



## Sodbuster

Medic21 said:


> are you saying I don’t understand it?
> 
> move made the decision in combat of who got treated and who didn’t based in available supplies and personnel. Letting two Marines die that could have lived based on have a second medi vac and not just me. But could have is not a luxury in combat when two will if treated.
> 
> I’ve also had to leave people lay in a median to treat ones that were “salvageable” vs those that were alive yet with “injuries incomparable with life”.
> 
> So yes, I understand it. Still have the privilege of reliving those from time to time.
> 
> The leaked plans are the ugly truth of this situation now gets out of hand.  It sucks and I hope it does not come to it.



I'm not sure who he was referring to either. I thought it was me??


----------



## CaptSpiff

Medic21 said:


> are you saying I don’t understand it?



I'm envisioning you channeling Joe Pesci in Goodfellas.



CaptSpiff said:


> You are not understating that one bit!



My statement (above) focused on the depth and truth of what you said, and then reinforced it with a similar experience of my own; except mine was once removed. Feel free to re-read the post. And keep doing what you're doing, you are the true Tip of the Spear.


----------



## CaptSpiff

CaptSpiff said:


> I have a friend in NYC (Manhattan) who lives in a pretty posh apartment building with a doorman. In chatting with the doorman she learned almost half the building is now empty, most having "gotten outta town". People of means have options.



I know it's rude to quote one's own post, but now it's getting serious out there:
Rhode Island's Governor directs State Police to pull over NY drivers?!?
In my best German accent: YOUR PAPERS PLEASE ?









						ACLU Questions If Rhode Island State Police Can Stop New York Drivers
					

Travelers coming from New York will be required to self-quarantine for 14 days upon arriving in Rhode Island, Gov. Gina Raimondo announced Thursday.




					boston.cbslocal.com


----------



## AlbergSteve

kennyp2339 said:


> You are spot on!! I was alluding to this yesterday without saying it, unfortunately places like NYC are going to be the sacrificial lambs as far as aide, like the full compliment of ventilators, but the lesson learned in NYC will be great for places like Denver, Houston, Dallas  ect...


Sorry Kenny, there will be _many _more sacrificial lambs.


----------



## begreen

mcdougy said:


> I am deeply worried for the u.s.a.
> I have family living there.  The severity is much greater than the people have been led to believe.


It's not just the severity. It is the unpreparedness that is concerning.  This is compounded by those lowlifes that seek to mine this horrible situation to their own benefit.



Sodbuster said:


> Henry Ford Health system has said it will ration access to ventilators based on the health of the patient, and their ability to survive the infection. Those deemed not able to recover will  be made "comfortable".


Death squads made real. Another reason to have a national health care system.


----------



## begreen

mcdougy said:


> All these measures are necessary. The scary part is they are many weeks behind. The U.S. has taken the slow approach in comparison for reasons unknown.


The reasons are known.  CDC budgets cut. CDC pandemic response team cut. Advance CDC epidemiologist in China, cut. Stock piles of masks, ventilators, cut. Just in time supply chains sound good when one wants to maximize efficiency and profit, but that model doesn't fit for health care. The lesson being learned is that we need to take healthcare as seriously as national defense (which has lots of stockpiles of things it will never use).


----------



## MTY

Reading comprehension folks.  Spiff said understating, not understanding.


----------



## Ashful

CaptSpiff said:


> I have a friend in NYC (Manhattan) who lives in a pretty posh apartment building with a doorman. In chatting with the doorman she learned almost half the building is now empty, most having "gotten outta town". People of means have options. Probably second homes in your bedroom communities.


This is likely one of the primary vectors for spreading the disease to new areas, over the last week.  When you look at the estimated infection rates for NYC, there’s no doubt some of those people fleeing NYC into the surrounding states of NJ, PA, and CT have carried the virus with them.


Sodbuster said:


> Henry Ford Health system has said it will ration access to ventilators based on the health of the patient, and their ability to survive the infection. Those deemed not able to recover will  be made "comfortable".


Hopefully it doesn’t come to this.  Begreen actually posted the proper response to this post a week ago, but here’s a more simplified graphic demonstrating the same point:





Note the area under the curve, or the total number of people infected, is the same.  Social distancing is aimed at limiting the rate of the spread to a threshold below which our hospitals can handle the critical cases, not the total count of people who get this thing.  However, due to seasonal factors and continued research on possible treatments, delaying the spread will likely also decrease the number of critical cases ending in death.


CaptSpiff said:


> Rhode Island's Governor directs State Police to pull over NY drivers?!?
> In my best German accent: YOUR PAPERS PLEASE ?


Good!  I wish PA were doing the same.  People are supposed to stay put, not carry this thing around the country with them.


AlbergSteve said:


> Sorry Kenny, there will be _many _more sacrificial lambs.


There are too many variables to say there “will” be anything.


MTY said:


> Reading comprehension folks.  Spiff said understating, not understanding.


Lol... was wondering if someone was going to catch that.  Still, the misunderstanding generated an interesting response.


----------



## mcdougy

> You’re absolutely blinded and insane if you think the government could take complete control and run healthcare.



I would think it can be done as many/most countries do it currently. It's under funded is the case in general. Here in our city (10th biggest in the country) it's not a matter of space, the hospital has lots of room, it's a matter of staff and equipment. I completely understand the magnitude of the problems of where the reasonable line is set, but this is approaching shameful that all countries don't have supplies ready and waiting for high volume situations. I'm hoping that won't ever happen again.


----------



## Sodbuster

Medic21 said:


> I’m waiting for the government to deploy the combat support hospital. That would be a quick way to add to our healthcare industry with the active duty military personnel and have the level two trauma center capabilities.  They can handle the majority of the day today for larger cities to allow them to focus their facilities on COVID-19



The Military is stationing the Hospital ship Mercy off the port of LA, and the Hospital ship Comfort off the coast of New York. Trump also said he was ordering the Army Corps of Engineers to build make shift ICU's.


----------



## begreen

We still have much to learn about the nature of this novel virus.








						Mystery In Wuhan: Recovered Coronavirus Patients Test Negative ... Then Positive
					

NPR interviewed four residents of Wuhan who contracted the virus, recovered — but then had a retest that turned positive. What does that mean for China's recovery from COVID-19?




					www.npr.org


----------



## CaptSpiff

Sawset said:


> We had a little clinic down town that tried but closed because the numbers weren't there. I wouldn't expect them or anyone else in the "industry" to build 1300 bed units in 8 days.
> If it's to a point of national security, then those involved to that end would be involved.



I'm thinking the NYC Jacob Javits convention center was re-purposed and outfitted in about that time, and even 2900 beds.
By the wonderful folks in the NY National Guard.


----------



## CaptSpiff

begreen said:


> We still have much to learn about the nature of this novel virus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mystery In Wuhan: Recovered Coronavirus Patients Test Negative ... Then Positive
> 
> 
> NPR interviewed four residents of Wuhan who contracted the virus, recovered — but then had a retest that turned positive. What does that mean for China's recovery from COVID-19?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.npr.org


This NPR article is an eye opener:
_In February, Wang Chen, a director at the state-run Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, estimated that the nucleic acid tests used in China were accurate at identifying positive cases of the coronavirus only 30%-50% of the time._

I keep hearing that the Govt of China is fudging the numbers. Reading the article make me think they have no real idea what their numbers are.

Hoping our promised "15 minute" tests have better accuracy!


----------



## Medic21

NickW said:


> True to a point... Blew my acl a year and a half ago; called and saw the family doc, sent me to the specialist, who sent me for an MRI and then replaced it. Yes, it needed approval; but in a completely government run operation I'd probably still be waiting for surgery because you can "live" with a blown acl... Maybe that's a little exaggerated, but I believe the private sector can do anything more efficiently than government. I think we have the right idea in this country, it's just poorly executed - too much special interests and pork...


I’ll give you the other side of it.  I pick up grandma after being on a ventilator for sepsis and taker back to the nursing home.  Then I pick her up 16 hours later and put her back in a ventilator and she goes back into the icu.  Difference is the hospital can’t bill because she was admitted again within 24 hours but, the only reason she was discharged was because her ICD code only allowed so many days of admission, not because the dr wanted her to be discharged.  

I see this every shift I work.


----------



## begreen

CaptSpiff said:


> This NPR article is an eye opener:
> _In February, Wang Chen, a director at the state-run Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, estimated that the nucleic acid tests used in China were accurate at identifying positive cases of the coronavirus only 30%-50% of the time._
> 
> I keep hearing that the Govt of China is fudging the numbers. Reading the article make me think they have no real idea what their numbers are.
> 
> Hoping our promised "15 minute" tests have better accuracy!


I am sure they are making mistakes and learning along the way. There is a lesson to be learned here, the need for truthfulness, timeliness and openess so that science can be done properly. That is an important lesson for all countries.


----------



## Woody Stover

Grizzerbear said:


> I dont believe we came from monkeys. Guess I have no brain





peakbagger said:


> Various claims are made that nearly half the US citizens do not believe in evolution including the VP.


 When he was our governor, he espoused the theory that the space dudes engineered us, which got him many votes from the progressive population here.  


Ashful said:


> A lot of people are likely afraid to handle or eat the produce right now, I suspect.





woodnomore said:


> Wash your produce, I am not eating salads more like cauliflower broccoli etc veggies that we cook


I remember years ago, before there was much organic food available, reading about washing produce in bleach water to remove pesticides. That would surely kill the virus. I don't recall the concentration of the solution.
For many years we've been using a vegetable steamer basket or double-boiler pot. I'd think that would kill the virus. But we don't steam 'em real long, we leave 'em crispy to retain nutrients so I don't know if that's long enough.


Medic21 said:


> Stay home for two weeks and drink whiskey, it’s like hand sanitizer for your insides.


Naturally, that was my first inclination, but then I remembered that it also weakens the immune system. We all have to make sacrifices in times like these. 
They say that for alcohol to be a good disinfectant, it needs to be a concentration of at least 2/3. I've got some but $60+ for a bottle of hand sanitizer seems a bit steep.


----------



## festerw

Woody Stover said:


> I remember years ago, before there was much organic food available, reading about washing produce in bleach water to remove pesticides. That would surely kill the virus. I don't recall the concentration of the solution.
> For many years we've been using a vegetable steamer basket or double-boiler pot. I'd think that would kill the virus. But we don't steam 'em real long, we leave 'em crispy to retain nutrients so I don't know if that's long enough.



2 things, 
1. Organic produce doesn't necessarily mean no pesticides. Unless you're growing it yourself (and even then) assume it needs washed anyway. 
2. Bleach while effective needs an extremely long contact time to be effective against some viruses. 10 minutes is the recommended and in that time the surface needs to stay wet to be effective.

Steam should be better but I don't know enough about that as a disinfectant to be sure.


----------



## kennyp2339

Woody Stover said:


> Naturally, that was my first inclination, but then I remembered that it also weakens the immune system. We all have to make sacrifices in times like these.


Possibly the most sensible thing you have said so far in 2020


----------



## Woody Stover

kennyp2339 said:


> Possibly the most sensible thing you have said so far in 2020


Me? Sensible??! There must be some mistake..


----------



## begreen

Long tangent on healthcare has been moved here:




__





						Healthcare
					

The reasons are known.  CDC budgets cut. CDC pandemic response team cut. Advance CDC epidemiologist in China, cut. Stock piles of masks, ventilators, cut. Just in time supply chains sound good when one wants to maximize efficiency and profit, but that model doesn't fit for health care. The...




					www.hearth.com
				




Let this thread stay on the topic of the SARS- CoV-2 virus.


----------



## MTY

Locally there have been announcements of deaths due to the virus.  3 people in a couple of days, all 80-90 years old.  I hope it has not found its way into a care center.


----------



## SpaceBus

__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.com


----------



## SpaceBus

MTY said:


> Locally there have been announcements of deaths due to the virus.  3 people in a couple of days, all 80-90 years old.  I hope it has not found its way into a care center.


The death toll is up to three here in Maine as well.


----------



## Grizzerbear

My aunt in laws father is in a coma I learned this weekend from the virus. Apparently him and his wife and a few other of his family members had been somewhere in Texas. Came back home.... felt ill...so they went to the hospital in Springfield and they confirmed his case and told his wife to go home and quarantine for 14 days. I heard yesterday she has been confirmed to have it now as well but so far she is doing just fine. He has  had heart/health problems before this that made his case worse. What I heard friday was that they dont believe he is going to make it. His  son, wife and a newborn went with them to Texas.....no word if they have it as well.


----------



## Ashful

Very sorry to hear that, Griz.  Unfortunately, there may be more of these tales posted in the next few weeks. 


One thing I don’t understand in all of the discussions of mortality rate is why people keep dividing the number of cases ending in death by the number of new (incomplete) cases. Mortality rate should be number of cases ending in death divided by number dead plus number recovered. If you were diagnosed yesterday, and your disease has not run it’s course, you are not part of the mortality rate stat, yet.

In the USA, it is 2500 dead out of 7000 completed cases, so a mortality rate of 36%. That may go up or down as more cases terminate in recovery or death, and change even more now that testing is more wide-spread, but this is the number today. How does 36% keep getting quoted as 1% - 3%?


----------



## WinterinWI

Ashful said:


> In the USA, it is 2500 dead out of 7000 completed cases, so a mortality rate of 36%. That may go up or down as more cases terminate in recovery or death, and change even more now that testing is more wide-spread, but this is the number today. How does 36% keep getting quoted as 1% - 3%?



Are you really trying to imply that the mortality rate for this virus is 36%? If so, you probably have a job waiting for you at one of the fabulous media outlets.

# of completed/recovered cases is unknown, as not everyone that gets it goes in for treatment. Anyone claiming they know what the mortality rate is guessing.

The mortality rate could be determined amongst those who seek treatment. Still not an applicable number to the population at large.

Total number of deaths due to the virus is easy to determine. The denominator (recovered + dead cases) is not.


----------



## peakbagger

I am glad this thread went back to Corona Virus with the Health Care discussion being given its own thread. 

Now back to CV-19. 

Sadly the mortality rates are cases that have been in the system for 2 to 3 weeks. These people were exposed before the fed and most of the most impacted states realized that CV-19 was in the population. Given the significant poor decisions by the administration, testing got delayed and still is lagging so the extent of the spread was and still is unknown. Even the new instant Abbott Labs test is not going to really get into heavy distribution until late April and even then its going to get rationed for a couple of months.  Until then its only the rich and the folks in the heaviest impacted urban areas that might see it. 

 This virus got its start on the East and West coasts and is going to burn its way into the central US establishing "beachheads" in central US urban areas. The current administration's base is generally regarded as poor and rural and that base has not even seen a major impact. Plenty of healthy "Typhoid Mary's" have already spread out into the general population in the last month and its just matter of time before they start up new  beachheads. Coincidentally this just happens to line up with the November election.  

Folks want certainty in their lives, the human brain is wired to make connections between random data to make correlations that do not exist and are no more than random chance. The current statistics may be better than nothing but not by much.  In the short term the best approach is slow possible transmission down by social distancing  and non essential work bans and possibly quarantines in the most impacted areas until testing is more widely deployed and treatments for those infected are proven. Eventually a vaccine will get made but its long after this pandemic is slowed down.


----------



## Medic21

peakbagger said:


> I am glad this thread went back to Corona Virus with the Health Care discussion being given its own thread.
> 
> Now back to CV-19.
> 
> Sadly the mortality rates are cases that have been in the system for 2 to 3 weeks. These people were exposed before the fed and most of the most impacted states realized that CV-19 was in the population. Given the significant poor decisions by the administration, testing got delayed and still is lagging so the extent of the spread was and still is unknown. Even the new instant Abbott Labs test is not going to really get into heavy distribution until late April and even then its going to get rationed for a couple of months.  Until then its only the rich and the folks in the heaviest impacted urban areas that might see it.
> 
> This virus got its start on the East and West coasts and is going to burn its way into the central US establishing "beachheads" in central US urban areas. The current administration's base is generally regarded as poor and rural and that base has not even seen a major impact. Plenty of healthy "Typhoid Mary's" have already spread out into the general population in the last month and its just matter of time before they start up new  beachheads. Coincidentally this just happens to line up with the November election.
> 
> Folks want certainty in their lives, the human brain is wired to make connections between random data to make correlations that do not exist and are no more than random chance. The current statistics may be better than nothing but not by much.  In the short term the best approach is slow possible transmission down by social distancing  and non essential work bans and possibly quarantines in the most impacted areas until testing is more widely deployed and treatments for those infected are proven. Eventually a vaccine will get made but its long after this pandemic is slowed down.


Well, since it uses one of tens of thousands of platforms already in Drs offices, ERs, etc and they will be shipping 50,000 a day by Thursday I think you are wrong.  In fact our shipment of them for the ambulances will be here tomorrow.


----------



## Ashful

WinterinWI said:


> Are you really trying to imply that the mortality rate for this virus is 36%? If so, you probably have a job waiting for you at one of the fabulous media outlets.


Simple math.  Try it sometime.   2500 dead out of 7000 completed cases = 36%.  My ten year old can do that math.  

 You can argue about the validity of those published numbers, but those are the only numbers we have today.


----------



## semipro

Ashful said:


> One thing I don’t understand in all of the discussions of mortality rate is why people keep dividing the number of cases ending in death by the number of new (incomplete) cases. Mortality rate should be number of cases ending in death divided by number dead plus number recovered. If you were diagnosed yesterday, and your disease has not run it’s course, you are not part of the mortality rate stat, yet.
> 
> In the USA, it is 2500 dead out of 7000 completed cases, so a mortality rate of 36%. That may go up or down as more cases terminate in recovery or death, and change even more now that testing is more wide-spread, but this is the number today. How does 36% keep getting quoted as 1% - 3%?
> 
> View attachment 258785


The metric you suggest does seem to make more sense to me but the devil is in the details, in this case, the definitions.  
What you're referring to seems to be most similar to the CDC's "Death to Case Ratio" defined here:




__





						Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 3 - Section 3
					






					www.cdc.gov


----------



## WinterinWI

Ashful said:


> Simple math.  Try it sometime.   2500 dead out of 7000 completed cases = 36%.  My ten year old can do that math.
> 
> You can argue about the validity of those published numbers, but those are the only numbers we have today.



Sigh. If you really want to believe this virus kills 1 in 3 then have at it.


----------



## Ashful

WinterinWI said:


> Sigh. If you really want to believe this virus kills 1 in 3 then have at it.


That’s not what I said.  I’m simply pointing out that the quoted numbers of 1% to 3% are not based on the number of deaths divided by the number of completed cases.  If you divide the number of recorded deaths by the number of known completed cases, which would be the truest definition of mortality rate, then the number is 36%.

We all know there are many reasons that number is flawed, most notably the lack of complete test data.  But from where on earth do they make the conclusion that the rate is 1% for the USA, versus 3.4% for China, based on these numbers?  Dividing the number of deaths into the number of known cases, when the majority of those cases have not yet reached conclusion, is a completely meaningless number.  That’s all I was saying.


----------



## Ashful

semipro said:


> The metric you suggest does seem to make more sense to me but the devil is in the details, in this case, the definitions.
> What you're referring to seems to be most similar to the CDC's "Death to Case Ratio" defined here:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 3 - Section 3
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cdc.gov


Kinda... but even that states “new cases in a time period”.

Right now, the published numbers state that 36% of the people who have been confirmed to have had Corona virus long enough to reach a final outcome (death or recovery) have terminated in death, and 64% of those recorded cases have terminated in recovery.  No need to argue over definitions in that pretty simple statement, all we can debate is the validity of the published data, or how many more undiagnosed or unconfirmed cases there may be.


----------



## SpaceBus

This is really serious, what this really means is that 1 in 3 people who develop symptoms will die. All of you who still continue to spread the rhetoric that the virus isn't deadly will probably die from it.


----------



## mcdougy

The true rate as ashful is stating will not be known for a long time. Simple as to why as well......to be confirmed recovered by definition, you need to test negative twice within a 24hr period. The lack/backlog of testing capacity currently is not allowing for the true number. 
Many, possibly 80% or more of people testing positive are told to go home and recover. I'm not sure about you, but if I started to feel recovered , I think the last place I would be heading is back "out" to be confirmed as recovered. 
Until this new test with fast results come into play, the true negative test result is somewhat eluding. 
Also I'm not sure how all countries are collecting their data, as in , confirmed positive numbers or are they adding presumed positive in the number? I'm thinking that's why your seeing politicians and doctors having different outlooks. 
The data is a mess.


----------



## Sodbuster

It took my daughter 14 days to get her results, she self quarantined while she was waiting, and will continue to do so since her company is not considered vital, and she can work from home via her computer.


----------



## mcdougy

I know for a fact here, there are many hospitalized that are sick with covid19, but since the test results aren't back, the govt is not including them. Presumed cases and confirmed cases is causing delayed numbers. Again here ,to the tune of 5 days or more delayed. Which is concerning as the numbers seem to double in that same time frame or as little as 3 days. 
10000 confirmed probably means 20000 actual. And when you here 20000 you very well couldd be sitting at 40000 actual.   Very different play on numbers.


----------



## begreen

Son's GF is recovering at home. Docs say she will be on oxygen for another two weeks. That is good news, but unfortunately she heard last night that her dad (in Arkansas) is in intensive care, testing positive. His bible study group ignored warnings. Now 5 of them are in the hospital. The disease is in the heartland.


----------



## begreen

In more positive news, the Mercedes F1 team modified a CPAP machine and delivered a work breathing assist device in 100hrs. We need this kind of turn around here. Now.








						Mercedes F1 team helps to develop breathing aid in pandemic
					

Formula One team Mercedes has helped to develop a breathing aid that could keep coronavirus patients out of intensive care and ease some pressure on Britain’s strained health service...




					apnews.com


----------



## SpaceBus

Several C19 patients are turning up in auto accidents and other emergencies which leads to more infections as well. Folks are dying and finding out days later the deceased actually had C19. This is clearly a terrible virus that is quantitatively killing thousands of people. In some places patients are being diagnosed with "viral bronchitis" instead of C19 to allow for more leeway on therapeutics.


----------



## NickW

Here in WI it is spreading away from the population centers. My county has the fairgrounds right across the highway from the largest hospital. I hope they turn that into the Covid home base...


----------



## CaptSpiff

Ashful said:


> In the USA, it is 2500 dead out of 7000 completed cases, so a mortality rate of 36%.


Statistics are just numbers until you place them into meaningful context.

For me, I want to know two stats:
1. The number of people who present for critical care with positive corvid-19, vs the number who died from C-19 complications, as a percentage.
2. The best guess or range of the total number infected, vs the number who died from C-19 complications, as a percentage.

The first should be pretty accurate (and maybe close to _Ashful's_), the second will be a range that gets tighter with every week (with more testing).

The diversity of complications, even within families is amazing. I now heard many stories like one spouse feeling near death, the other experiencing nothing, and the kid with mild flu-like symptoms. None of the 3 presented to critical care, so outside of most stats.
I'm starting to side with the early experts who predicted Cor-19 would be similar to the seasonal flu with the disadvantage of zero pre-vaccinated. 
Remember that USA regular seasonal flu complications leading to death range from 15,000 to 25,000 per year. It also mostly affects the old and in-firmed. The wide range is because the uncertainty of who to count (ex. cancer patient with 3-month to live gets flu and passes).


----------



## Sodbuster

In many of the news articles I'm reading, people with underlying conditions are at a much higher risk. If it's been mentioned already, I apologize, but I'm sure you country music fans have heard about the death of Joe Diffie.  It was in several articles I've read that he died from complications from Covid. If you look at recent pictures of Joe, he was a big fellow, and at a much higher risk for Type 2 diabetes, and high blood pressure. If he had these complications Covid simply made his death come sooner. I'm seeing more and more people dying from complications of Covid, like opportunistic Pneumonia, weakened immune systems etc. Maybe those with more medical knowledge can flesh this out a bit more. Young, healthy people with no co-morbidities, stand the best chance of beating this, but it's certainly no guarantee.


----------



## CaptSpiff

Does anyone have details to this new 5-15 minute C-19 test which is expected to be available this week?
Will it be available at the walk-in type clinics?


----------



## mcdougy

No specific time line to the new test, the only thing I have read is that Illinois governor has directed the company to not ship any out of the state until it is in all there required hands. I'm sure a rule allowed under the state of emergency rules....


----------



## begreen

Then there are countries like Brazil where the president refuses to accept the danger of this virus. He will not put any common-sense distancing rules in place and has called governors that are doing so, criminals. He has told churches to remain open and even has warned the national health minister to not speak out against him in public or he will be fired. Bolsonaro needs to have a chat with this virus. He will be responsible for thousands of deaths in his country. Looks like Belarus's leader may be taking the same tough-guy stance.


----------



## begreen

CaptSpiff said:


> Does anyone have details to this new 5-15 minute C-19 test which is expected to be available this week?
> Will it be available at the walk-in type clinics?


I am not sure, Abbott labs seems to have tight control over the testing through their network. But they are ramping up quickly and hopefully will be available soon. Locally, the UW which has a testing robot that they got permission to put into production testing has made a difference in controlling the spread. This and quick action by the governor and mayors has helped keep the spread rate much lower than what is happening on the east coast.








						Detect COVID-19 in as Little as 5 Minutes
					

Available on the portable ID NOW platform, Abbott's molecular COVID-19 test delivers results in minutes in a variety of healthcare settings.




					www.abbott.com
				











						A new FDA-authorized COVID-19 test doesn't need a lab and can produce results in just 5 minutes
					

There’s a new COVID-19 test from healthcare technology maker Abbott that looks to be the fastest yet in terms of producing results, and that can do so on the spot right at point-of-care, without requiring a round trip to a lab. This test for the novel coronavirus causing the current global...




					techcrunch.com
				




If we can maintain social distancing and get ramped up on ventilators this quickly, then hospital caseloads should be intense, but more manageable.


----------



## mcdougy

Illinois governor says he’s taking over testing after ‘millions of tests’ never arrived from White House
					

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker said that he's ready to simply take matters into his own hands after the federal government has failed to meet its promise of millions of test kits. "Right now, all of the experts point to 10,000 tests to the standard that we need to achieve," he said in prepared...




					www.rawstory.com


----------



## begreen

That is what is going to take.  Leadership at the top was in denial just a week ago, calling our governor a snake. There is hope. Seattle's curve is flattening and he has led by action, not finger-pointing and name-calling.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/us/seattle-washington-state-coronavirus-transmission-rate.html


----------



## CaptSpiff

begreen said:


> I am not sure, Abbott labs seems to have tight control over the testing through their network. But they are ramping up quickly and hopefully will be available soon.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A new FDA-authorized COVID-19 test doesn't need a lab and can produce results in just 5 minutes
> 
> 
> There’s a new COVID-19 test from healthcare technology maker Abbott that looks to be the fastest yet in terms of producing results, and that can do so on the spot right at point-of-care, without requiring a round trip to a lab. This test for the novel coronavirus causing the current global...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> techcrunch.com


Here's a snip from the Abbott Labs article you posted:

_The good news for availability of this test is that ID NOW, the hardware from Abbott that it runs on, already “holds the largest molecular point-of-care footprint in the U.S.,” and is “widely available” across doctor’s offices, urgent care clinics, emergency rooms and other medical facilities._

Sounds like great news.


----------



## mcdougy

'A game changer': FDA authorizes Abbott Labs' portable, 5-minute coronavirus test the size of a toaster
					

The FDA has authorized Abbott Labs' coronavirus test that the company says delivers results in five to 13 minutes.



					www.usatoday.com


----------



## SpaceBus

Sodbuster said:


> In many of the news articles I'm reading, people with underlying conditions are at a much higher risk. If it's been mentioned already, I apologize, but I'm sure you country music fans have heard about the death of Joe Diffie.  It was in several articles I've read that he died from complications from Covid. If you look at recent pictures of Joe, he was a big fellow, and at a much higher risk for Type 2 diabetes, and high blood pressure. If he had these complications Covid simply made his death come sooner. I'm seeing more and more people dying from complications of Covid, like opportunistic Pneumonia, weakened immune systems etc. Maybe those with more medical knowledge can flesh this out a bit more. Young, healthy people with no co-morbidities, stand the best chance of beating this, but it's certainly no guarantee.


Doctors in NYC are saying the virus doesn't care about age, ethnicity, education, or income.


----------



## WinterinWI

SpaceBus said:


> This is really serious, what this really means is that 1 in 3 people who develop symptoms will die.



Care to share your source for that statement?


----------



## kennyp2339

I don't want to start rumors here, but has anyone else heard that the virus affects people more that have type A blood? I read a couple small things about this when Italy was starting to go through hell, haven't heard much about it since, me having A+ blood has me ever so slightly concerned, but this also could be just a bunch of hogwash.


----------



## Medic21

CaptSpiff said:


> Does anyone have details to this new 5-15 minute C-19 test which is expected to be available this week?
> Will it be available at the walk-in type clinics?



it runs on the platform the flu tests run. It’s a tried and true test platform. 



mcdougy said:


> No specific time line to the new test, the only thing I have read is that Illinois governor has directed the company to not ship any out of the state until it is in all there required hands. I'm sure a rule allowed under the state of emergency rules....


Ours for the ambulance have shipped with a delivery of Thursday 



kennyp2339 said:


> kennyp2339 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I don't want to start rumors here, but has anyone else heard that the virus affects people more that have type A blood? I read a couple small things about this when Italy was starting to go through hell, haven't heard much about it since, me having A+ blood has me ever so slightly concerned, but this also could be just a bunch of hogwash.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I’ve seen something to that effect.  It could be possible based on different autoimmune responses we know are present in different blood types.
Click to expand...


----------



## kennyp2339

WinterinWI said:


> Care to share your source for that statement?


I believe he made that comment based on Ashful's earlier comment. While I don't think that its a 1:3 ratio of people that succumb to this disease, I saw a headline on the news stating per the good doctor, "up to 200k US virus deaths, if we do things almost perfectly." That's alarming.


----------



## Medic21

WinterinWI said:


> Care to share your source for that statement?


Just more speculation. If it killed that many how did China end up with only a few thousand deaths.

It’s more like 1:3 that show symptoms test positive.


----------



## Ashful

SpaceBus said:


> This is really serious, what this really means is that 1 in 3 people who develop symptoms will die.


not so fast there, Bus!  Yes, the mortality rate taken from the current numbers is indeed 1 in 3, but I believe that reflects our enormous failure in testing, as much as anything else.  I believe they were really only testing critical cases two weeks ago, which skews that population of completed cases in today’s data.  

In other words, I expect the mortality rate calculated in this way will come down a lot over the next two weeks, as the denominator in that equation fills in with more “average” (not just critical) confirmed cases.


----------



## Medic21

Ashful said:


> not so fast there, Bus!  Yes, the mortality rate taken from the current numbers is indeed 1 in 3, but I believe that reflects our enormous failure in testing, as much as anything else.  Likely the number of confirmed cases in that population of completed cases, which would be people who contracted more than two weeks ago, reflects more critical cases than the population who are freshly confirmed but not yet terminated today.
> 
> In other words, I expect the mortality rate calculated in this way will come down a lot over the next two weeks, as the denominator in that equation fills in with more “average” (not just critical) confirmed cases.


And to further complicate that number the only people being tested to be in the recovered group are those that are still admitted to the hospital and tested on discharge. We will never have a concrete number until every single person has a test and an antigen test through a blood draw once this is all done.  This is the reason the numbers for flu deaths in the US are listed as 25,000 to 62,000 for the season


----------



## NickW

SpaceBus said:


> Doctors in NYC are saying the virus doesn't care about age, ethnicity, education, or income.


No, anyone can GET it. SURVIVAL hinges greatly on age and health...


----------



## Ashful

Medic21 said:


> And to further complicate that number the only people being tested to be in the recovered group are those that are still admitted to the hospital and tested on discharge. We will never have a concrete number until every single person has a test and an antigen test through a blood draw once this is all done.  This is the reason the numbers for flu deaths in the US are listed as 25,000 to 62,000 for the season


Are you sure about this?  I assume the published recovered number was an estimate of confirmed cases minus deaths on a two week delay.


----------



## Medic21

Ashful said:


> Are you sure about this?  I assume the published recovered number was an estimate of confirmed cases minus deaths on a two week delay.


This is what the state department of health has said here.


----------



## mcdougy

My wife had read about the type A blood as well. The other thing she is hearing is not many people placed on a vent are recovering. The vents are delaying. A good friend of mines 64 year old brother has just passed from C19. He was relatively healthy , nothing overweight, slight diabetes (pill and diet control) He returned from Mexico holiday March 6th, put on a ventilator March 12th, passed today March 30. His wife and a nephew have it as well, showing little symptoms.
I also have a 68yr aunt who has a presumed case, recovering at home with brutal symptoms. The hospital asked her to go home and self isolate, and return if she came to the point she couldn't say 4 words consecutively. She has been 2 weeks at home and starting to feel better.


----------



## Medic21

mcdougy said:


> My wife had read about the type A blood as well. The other thing she is hearing is not many people placed on a vent are recovering. The vents are delaying. A good friend of mines 64 year old brother has just passed from C19. He was relatively healthy , nothing overweight, slight diabetes (pill and diet control) He returned from Mexico holiday March 6th, put on a ventilator March 12th, passed today March 30. His wife and a nephew have it as well, showing little symptoms.
> I also have a 68yr aunt who has a presumed case, recovering at home with brutal symptoms. The hospital asked her to go home and self isolate, and return if she came to the point she couldn't say 4 words consecutively. She has been 2 weeks at home and starting to feel better.


Sorry for your loss.

any viral pneumonia is brutal. The good thing is it’s not very common normally. I’ve had many many intubated transfers over the years with viral pneumonia and we have taken these PPE precautions for all of them. It’s very scary stuff.


----------



## begreen

SpaceBus said:


> Doctors in NYC are saying the virus doesn't care about age, ethnicity, education, or income.


In England, the Telegraph is reporting that one quarter of their doctors are infected.   



kennyp2339 said:


> I don't want to start rumors here, but has anyone else heard that the virus affects people more that have type A blood? I read a couple small things about this when Italy was starting to go through hell, haven't heard much about it since, me having A+ blood has me ever so slightly concerned, but this also could be just a bunch of hogwash.


Yes, that came out of post-infection research in China. I think I posted about this early on in this thread. And yes, my whole family is type A neg.


----------



## AlbergSteve

Just spoke to a friend of mine who's an RT at our local hospital. Said it was eerily quiet in emerg and ambulatory care. It serves about 85k people and there's no one there. MIL going in for emergency surgery this morning too.


----------



## Medic21

AlbergSteve said:


> Just spoke to a friend of mine who's an RT at our local hospital. Said it was eerily quiet in emerg and ambulatory care. It serves about 85k people and there's no one there. MIL going in for emergency surgery this morning too.


EMS runs are way down right now.  There are services in the US that are giving pay cuts and layoffs because run volume is so low revenue is not coming in.


----------



## begreen

AlbergSteve said:


> Just spoke to a friend of mine who's an RT at our local hospital. Said it was eerily quiet in emerg and ambulatory care. It serves about 85k people and there's no one there. MIL going in for emergency surgery this morning too.





Medic21 said:


> EMS runs are way down right now.  There are services in the US that are giving pay cuts and layoffs because run volume is so low revenue is not coming in.



Sounds like an Italian doctor's description of the calm before the storm. They too were wondering if they had overreacted. A week later they were completely overwhelmed. Get rest now while you can.


----------



## Medic21

begreen said:


> Sounds like an Italian doctor's description of the calm before the storm. They too were wondering if they had overreacted. A week later they were completely overwhelmed. Get rest now while you can.


That’s our thought right now.  But, our thoughts are also we will transport these pts from facility to facility more than see them on 911.


----------



## begreen

Helpful lesson from an old Mythbusters episode for this time.


----------



## begreen

This is a longish, but very informative family zoomchat with a NYC pulmonary doctor telling his family what to do regarding Covid-19. Good info! The second part is Q&A


----------



## begreen

Today's update from our community situation awareness team:

Public Health Seattle King County reports as of March 30th that there are 2,330 confirmed COVID-19 cases, this is an increase of 502 from Friday and represents 13.3% of the 17,465 county-wide tests reported. There have been a total of 149 reported deaths in King County, an increase of 24 from Friday and represents 6.4% of the positive tests.
Washington State Department of Health reports that as of 11:59 pm March 29th, 93% of tests statewide have been negative for the virus (total of 60,566 negatives), there are 4,896 positive tests statewide. There have been a statewide total 195 deaths, 4% of the positive cases.


----------



## Ashful

begreen said:


> Today's update from our community situation awareness team:
> 
> Public Health Seattle King County reports as of March 30th that there are 2,330 confirmed COVID-19 cases, this is an increase of 502 from Friday and represents 13.3% of the 17,465 county-wide tests reported. There have been a total of 149 reported deaths in King County, an increase of 24 from Friday and represents 6.4% of the positive tests.
> Washington State Department of Health reports that as of 11:59 pm March 29th, 93% of tests statewide have been negative for the virus (total of 60,566 negatives), there are 4,896 positive tests statewide. There have been a statewide total 195 deaths, 4% of the positive cases.


Sad news.  But again, publishing deaths as a fractional amount of people who may have tested positive as recently as this weekend really means nothing in relation to the fatality of this disease, when the median time from contraction to death is still listed as 14 days.  Why even bother giving a percentage of deaths to total cases?  It gives people the wrong impression, as if 94% to 96% of those tested had positive outcomes, which is not true.


----------



## Sawset

One of our manufacturing plants here was closed last night after "an employee had contact outside of work with an individual that tested positive for Covid 19.  A professional service was contracted to clean and disinfect the facility".  2nd shift sent home, 3rd shift cancelled, reopened this morning.
Hmm, and this is SE WI, kind of a minimal area so far.  But we only have 8 cases here - very few are testing, that's what the case is.


----------



## Sawset

A visual guide to the plagues of history:









						Visualizing the History of Pandemics
					

The history of pandemics, from the Antonine Plague to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) event, ranked by their impact on human life.




					www.visualcapitalist.com


----------



## begreen

Ashful said:


> Sad news.  But again, publishing deaths as a fractional amount of people who may have tested positive as recently as this weekend really means nothing in relation to the fatality of this disease, when the median time from contraction to death is still listed as 14 days.  Why even bother giving a percentage of deaths to total cases?  It gives people the wrong impression, as if 94% to 96% of those tested had positive outcomes, which is not true.


Not sure what will evolve here, but in Europe many deaths in nursing homes are not being evaluated or counted for Covid-19. 








						Nursing homes have too few body bags, many uncounted dead
					

PARIS (AP) — One by one, elderly residents of French nursing homes are going into forced isolation into their rooms...




					apnews.com


----------



## begreen

Sawset said:


> A visual guide to the plagues of history:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Visualizing the History of Pandemics
> 
> 
> The history of pandemics, from the Antonine Plague to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) event, ranked by their impact on human life.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.visualcapitalist.com


One distortion of this kind of illustration is that it does not represent the mortalities as a percent of the population. There's a big difference between a pandemic that wipes out 25% of humanity and 3% even though the body count is the same. The Justinian plague wiped out ~40-50 million out of a world population estimate of 200 million at that time. According to the graph the Spanish Flu wiped out 40-50 million at a time when the world population was 1.8 billion.

All data for Covid-19 is preliminary. It's a work in progress.

PS: One major thing missing is the incredibly large number of people that died in the new world as a result of exposure to Eurasian diseases. They caused the deaths of an estimated  30-45 million native people in North and South America or more. The actual number is unknown because the sizes of native populations were grossly underestimated in many cases.


----------



## NickW

begreen said:


> One distortion of this kind of illustration is that it does not represent the mortalities as a percent of the population. There's a big difference between a plague that wipes out 25% of humanity and 5% even though the body count is the same.


No doubt. That black death was probably a huge percentage of humanity. As terrible as this is and we still have a long way to go, we are still way under 1%... How long before we will know how effective the isolation is being? I've heard that this won't peak in WI until late April or even May... It seems like reported cases are slowing, but who knows how much testing is being done here. I assume most test kits are going to the hardest hit areas.


----------



## Ashful

begreen said:


> Not sure what will evolve here, but in Europe many deaths in nursing homes are not being evaluated or counted for Covid-19.


The good news is the number of critical cases to total cases is only 3900/167k = 2.3%, which will put a heck of a dent in the current 3400/9700 = 35% mortality rate of completed cases in the US. 


NickW said:


> No doubt. That black death was probably a huge percentage of humanity.


Our understanding of the bubonic plague is rapidly changing in recent years, due to many scientific and archeological advancements.  It appears the former estimates of 50% - 66% of the population were low.  In all places where data exists, the number is higher.  In fact, it can be said as a general rule that the better the quality of the data from a given town, the higher the number.  The most accurate local records mostly put the deaths above 70% of the population.


----------



## begreen

NickW said:


> No doubt. That black death was probably a huge percentage of humanity. As terrible as this is and we still have a long way to go, we are still way under 1%... How long before we will know how effective the isolation is being? I've heard that this won't peak in WI until late April or even May... It seems like reported cases are slowing, but who knows how much testing is being done here. I assume most test kits are going to the hardest hit areas.


With good social distancing the tested cases will slow down, but not the numbers. It helps reduce the spike and spreads the numbers over a longer period of time. So far there is no evidence to support the hope that this will decline with warmer weather. Unlike the Spanish flu which was an influenza virus, Covid-19 is a SARS type coronavirus and more like the common cold virus.


----------



## mcdougy

As NYC Nears 1,000 COVID-19 Deaths, How Does Pandemic Compare to Typical Flu Season?
					

Over the course of just 31 days, COVID-19 killed more than 1,500 people in the tri-state, the vast majority of which were in New York, and has proven thus far to be deadlier than the seasonal flu




					www.nbcnewyork.com


----------



## Sawset

Ashful said:


> Our understanding of the bubonic plague is rapidly changing in recent years, due to many scientific and archeological advancements.  It appears the former estimates of 50% - 66% of the population were low


People had a lot of fleas back then.


----------



## Ashful

Sawset said:


> People had a lot of fleas back then.


You can say that, again.

I went back to fix one of my sentences, but the forum no longer allows edits past two hours.  I should have said that new information shows the death toll was higher than former estimates in all places where it was hit and not controlled, rather than just saying everywhere.

A few places, most notably Madrid, did manage to keep it out completely.  There is another story, although I can’t remember which town, in which the sole family to bring it to town were bricked up in their house, and it ended right there.

There are some obvious uncomfortable or unpopular parallels that can made to today, in all of that.


----------



## Sawset

Ashful said:


> in all places where it was hit and not controlled


The closure, extensive cleaning, and reopen at one of our facilities was because someone was consciously careless, nonchalant, felt it didn't matter. Very seriously taken out of their hands.


----------



## AlbergSteve

Sawset said:


> The closure, extensive cleaning, and reopen at one of our facilities was because someone was consciously careless, nonchalant, felt it didn't matter. Very seriously taken out of their hands.


I potentially avoided a similar situation at work last week. Our yacht club has been shut down for a couple of weeks, deep cleaned and locked. The same was done to my office. Members still allowed to come and go from their boats, but nothing else. I can't tell you how many groups of people still get together and hang out on their boats every day drinking and BS'ing. They just don't get the seriousness of the risk that they present to  themselves and others -keep in mind the average age of the membership is over 70.  A couple of guys  from that irresponsible group sit on the executive and have access to my office. I discovered that they had been in my office for no particular reason so I asked my boss if I could change the locks. She approved and also got approval from the Commodore. Chit hit the fan - you'd think we had just taken toys from a five year old. These two guys ranted and raved about how you can't restrict their access, they even tried to get other members to back them up. These are the same guys a couple of weeks ago whined and complained when the Provincial government shut down bars and restaurants. They felt that because we were a private club that we didn't have to follow the rules. Fortunately I have 99.8% of the membership on my side. The point is, I'm still gobsmacked at the number of people that aren't take this seriously.


----------



## mcdougy




----------



## begreen

We dropped the ball on the front line.








						Topol: US Betrays Healthcare Workers in Coronavirus Disaster
					

Many US healthcare workers started this year already suffering from burnout, but the worst was yet to come.



					www.medscape.com


----------



## MTY

It is becoming obvious that not only did we drop the ball, but nothing coming out as news can be trusted, the government releases are no more reliable than the news, and people still party without a thought as to whose life they are endangering.  The only smart thing to do is hide.  
This reminds me of the Aids message that you were not only sleeping with an individual, but also with all the prior individuals the person you were with had been with as far as infection was concerned.  I have been spending most of my days isolated by a mile or two from others.  A friend called me two days ago.  Cabin fever was really getting to him, and I was tempted to invite him over, but then I remembered that I have no idea who he has interacted with in the last couple of weeks.  Hide.


----------



## AlbergSteve

MTY said:


> then I remembered that I have no idea who he has interacted with in the last couple of weeks. Hide.


*Exactly!*


----------



## AlbergSteve

begreen said:


> We dropped the ball on the front line.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Topol: US Betrays Healthcare Workers in Coronavirus Disaster
> 
> 
> Many US healthcare workers started this year already suffering from burnout, but the worst was yet to come.
> 
> 
> 
> www.medscape.com


And that ball is still pretty slippery...


----------



## Sawset

Flights out of NewYork
Flights out of WuHan
Not much of a quarantine on that front.
Heading off to a summer home makes the news, but 1/2million flying out/wk --


----------



## moresnow

What I dont understand is how we can have a dozen cruise ships off the Florida coast with infected passengers looking to disembark there. Who in there right mind has boarded a floating mortuary recently to begin with? Unbelievable.


----------



## peakbagger

moresnow said:


> What I dont understand is how we can have a dozen cruise ships off the Florida coast with infected passengers looking to disembark there. Who in there right mind has boarded a floating mortuary recently to begin with? Unbelievable.



Timing wise the big push to ramp up response to US government response to Corona Virus in all of the US wasn't until 2 to 3  weeks ago.  Some folks were already headed out or on board. For many people booked, standard trip insurance did not cover this so they would loose what they paid for the trip. It also has been reported that some of the cruise lines deliberately understated the risks of cruising during a possible pandemic and some were offering incentives for guests to continue  on with the trip. I also wonder if there is a red state blue state correlation as there are still many folks of red persuasion that feel this is all liberal overreaction ?

Cruising has never been of any interest to me or the people I hang out with. I would not mind if the entire cruise industry goes down but realize there is lot of related businesses that would go down with it. One good thing is most of the cruise lines are foreign firms so they dont get any of the bailout money.


----------



## moresnow

peakbagger said:


> Timing wise the big push to ramp up response to US government response to Corona Virus in all of the US wasn't until 2 to 3  weeks ago.  Some folks were already head out or on board. For many people booked, standard trip insurance did not cover this so they would loose what they paid for the trip. It also has been reported that some of the cruise lines deliberately understated the risks of cruising during a possible pandemic and some were offering incentives for guests to continue  on with the trip. I also wonder if there is a red state blue state correlation as there are still many folks of red persuasion that feel this is all liberal overreaction ?
> 
> Cruising has never been of any interest to me or the people I hang out with. I would not mind if the entire cruise industry goes down but realize there is lot of related businesses that would go down with it. One good thing is most of the cruise lines are foreign firms so they dont get any of the bailout money.




Guess I am a bit to conservative to have cared about travel fare and booking fee's or for that matter what somebody looking for my money tells me about my safety under there watch. Common sense does not pervade our society any longer apparently IMO.

 I also have zero interest in being on a cruise ship.  Nor am I very concerned about the financial failings of any particular cruise line. Talk about non-essential..... 

Sorry for the rant! Carry on


----------



## Sawset

peakbagger said:


> I would not mind if the entire cruise industry goes down but realize there is lot of related businesses that would go down with it.


Very small portion compared to population.
Every year here I get and use a vehicle season entrance pass for the state parks here, for hiking, skiing, biking, campgrounds.  It gets us in, and gets used many many times throughout the year. I look every so often in public parking lots around, and notice - generally,  no other vehicles have one.  Very small portion of the population also.


----------



## Medic21

Sawset said:


> Very small portion compared to population.
> Every year here I get and use a vehicle season entrance pass for the state parks here, for hiking, skiing, biking, campgrounds.  It gets us in, and gets used many many times throughout the year. I look every so often in public parking lots around, and notice - generally,  no other vehicles have one.  Very small portion of the population also.


Our state parks are still open, I’m glad for that, and they have about a 200% increase in use from what I was told.


----------



## Ashful

I agree, but I can also


Medic21 said:


> Our state parks are still open, I’m glad for that, and they have about a 200% increase in use from what I was told.


I can’t confirm that it’s 200%, but yes... our local state park has been quite crowded, despite having all buildings, bathrooms, and other public facilities closed.  The trails, lakes, and boat ramps are open, at least for the time-being.  Unfortunately, I hear reports that people are still congregating around the boat ramps and in the parking lots around boats readying for sail.  Also, without their usual level of enforcement in the “cars with boat trailers only” lot, too many pedestrians and bicyclists are ignoring the signs and using the marina parking lot, making it darn near impossible to park and rig a boat on a trailer in there, right now.

My mother told me last night that a family friend and neighbor from my childhood was in the ER, and had gone unresponsive.  He has symptoms similar to COVID-19, but for some reason his doc had not tested him.  He apparently caught whatever he has from his son, an old friend of mine, who returned sick from some travel in the few days immediately before anyone around here had heard of COVID-19.  An hour after that, I learned that 3 out of 4 in a family up the road with which we have frequent contact (their son is in my son’s circle of friends) have it, but are actually nearing recovery.  I expect we’ll be hearing a lot more of these stories in the next two weeks.

The news an hour ago said the White House is preparing for 100k - 200k deaths, which is one of the more optimistic forecasts I’ve seen, representing only 0.05% of the US population.  If prior estimates of 3% mortality are anywhere near accurate, that means they expect only 5M Americans to contract this disease, a mere 1.6% of our population.  That would be a much better outcome than has been forecast by others, and it’s still terrible, but I hope we are so lucky.


----------



## kennyp2339

I was texting with one of my friends I'm a volunteer firefighter with last night, his main job is a boiler tech for a NYC hospital, he said for the first time in his life he was very depressed in the am while getting ready for work, he said that you can't even imagine what's going on behind the doors of the hospital, its real bad, he's remained isolated from the general population, but occasionally has to go on the ward floors to adjust heat / cooling and change out air filters, he does wear full ppe but he's very nervous / concerned obviously of his wellbeing and possibly bringing something home (his elderly mom lives with him) 
He stated that every possible space in his hospital is crammed with a sick person, janitor closets have been cleaned out to fit beds, hallways a lined up with filled beds, people are constantly running around checking on patients, people are unfortunately dyeing, and there are many people in severe condition, both young and old.


----------



## AlbergSteve

AlbergSteve said:


> I potentially avoided a similar situation at work last week. Our yacht club has been shut down for a couple of weeks, deep cleaned and locked. The same was done to my office. Members still allowed to come and go from their boats, but nothing else. I can't tell you how many groups of people still get together and hang out on their boats every day drinking and BS'ing. They just don't get the seriousness of the risk that they present to  themselves and others -keep in mind the average age of the membership is over 70.  A couple of guys  from that irresponsible group sit on the executive and have access to my office. I discovered that they had been in my office for no particular reason so I asked my boss if I could change the locks. She approved and also got approval from the Commodore. Chit hit the fan - you'd think we had just taken toys from a five year old. These two guys ranted and raved about how you can't restrict their access, they even tried to get other members to back them up. These are the same guys a couple of weeks ago whined and complained when the Provincial government shut down bars and restaurants. They felt that because we were a private club that we didn't have to follow the rules. Fortunately I have 99.8% of the membership on my side. The point is, I'm still gobsmacked at the number of people that aren't take this seriously.


Sooo, those same two guys loaded up their boats today to go cruising for a couple of days, _together_, with their families. My gut tells me Darwin won't be kind to them.

All of the local marine parks are closed to access, and that includes mooring balls as well. Which doesn't make sense - nothing says social distancing like 300 ft of open water between you and the next guy.

Most of our local parks are open. We hike our local mountain park a couple of times a week and we might see one other person on the trail. I think I can see @begreen working from home in this pic. You can just see Mt Baker on the left.


----------



## begreen

I was looking back at ya Steve during yesterday's walk. I also saw this banner hanging at the end of a local driveway.


----------



## woodnomore

I hooked my ozone generator to a timing circuit. 20 minutes before I get home the generator comes on. I get home walk in the door linger in the mudroom take my coat off change my shoes and then go wash my hands.


----------



## Medic21

Prepping for the next 24 hours tomorrow


----------



## moresnow

Medic21 said:


> Prepping for the next 24 hours tomorrow
> 
> View attachment 258907
> View attachment 258908



A fine choice I must say


----------



## Medic21

moresnow said:


> A fine choice I must say


Not the favorite but $100 a bottle cheaper than Jefferson’s Cask Strength.  Saving that bottle for when it’s all over and time to party.


----------



## moresnow

Medic21 said:


> Not the favorite but $100 a bottle cheaper than Jefferson’s Cask Strength.  Saving that bottle for when it’s all over and time to party.


And when that day comes. You will deserve every drop!


----------



## Ashful

AlbergSteve said:


> All of the local marine parks are closed to access, and that includes mooring balls as well. Which doesn't make sense - nothing says social distancing like 300 ft of open water between you and the next guy.


Same here, our local lake said no mooring.  Bizarre.  How often can you spend a few hours so far from the rest of humanity without traveling to some far-off land, as when your bobbing on a mooring ball?


----------



## mcdougy

This has just got more personal for me. The nurse on my father's floor at his long term care facility has tested positive. He has been exposed. Currently he's in the hospital. Monday was when the nurse worked, Tuesday evening he entered the hospital. I will sit on pins and needles until the possible incubation period is over. He was tested Tuesday evening when he showed up , and that result was negative. If he contracted the virus Monday it may not be showing on a test yet. Incubation period varies, but 2-10 days is common. Wuhan IIRC was 5.3 days average incubation. The shortage of PPE is a direct result of this situation IMO.


----------



## johneh

My prayers go out to you and your Dad my the Lord do this good work


----------



## NickW

Agreed - prayers from WI...


----------



## Medic21

Phoenix Paramedic Solutions Begins New On Site Plasma COVID-19 Testing
					






					www.morningstar.com
				




Press release from the company I work for.  Starts today.


----------



## Ashful

A guy who used to report to me, and still works in my office, has tested positive.  I almost ran into him in the hallway ten days ago, and we frequently use the same equipment, but not in the last two weeks.  I’m clear, but several of my coworkers are now on the two-week watch.  The guy who tested positive has no symptoms, he only got tested because he has a sick family member.

Got another friend in the hospital ICU with it now.  Sounds like he’s not as bad as some others, but he is very frustrated and lonely.


----------



## PaulOinMA

SIL just texted my wife.  Their friend's mom just died on COVID-19.


----------



## begreen

Ashful said:


> The news an hour ago said the White House is preparing for 100k - 200k deaths, which is one of the more optimistic forecasts I’ve seen, representing only 0.05% of the US population.  If prior estimates of 3% mortality are anywhere near accurate, that means they expect only 5M Americans to contract this disease, a mere 1.6% of our population.  That would be a much better outcome than has been forecast by others, and it’s still terrible, but I hope we are so lucky.


It's estimated that only about 5% of the population will get infected before summer. One can't look at the total population numbers until this is over. If the mortality rate for the overall population stays low, great. But it is how many people die that have been infected that is the real mortality rate. If the mortalities stop at no higher than 200,000 people, that would be about 1.24% of the 5% of the population. Currently, the mortality rate for people of my age group getting this disease stands at around 10%, globally. I hope we do better locally.


----------



## SpaceBus

begreen said:


> It's estimated that only about 5% of the population will get infected before summer. One can't look at the total population numbers until this is over. If the mortality rate for the overall population stays low, great. But it is how many people die that have been infected that is the real mortality rate. That is going to be much higher number. Currently, the mortality rate for people of my age group getting this disease stands at around 10%, globally. I hope we do better locally.


This is a tragedy.


----------



## kennyp2339

SpaceBus said:


> This is a tragedy.


I agree with that, but always remember, with tragedies almost always comes innovation, lessons learned, and change.
We are in the way beginning of this virus, but already we as a country and like the rest of the world are learning from mistakes that have been made which may have contributed to the rapid intensity of the virus. 
Just my own personal beliefs here, but one of the greatest lessons learned so far is that we need our nations governments to speak with each other clearer, I know in recent weeks / months there's been finger pointing towards the Chinese, did the US operate efficiently? probably not, but did the Chinese operate efficiently in communication? probably not. 
I have learned that we in the US  cannot afford to outsource manufacturing anymore, from raw materials to actual factories that make general equipment, not necessarily medical equipment, but more then what we have now. 
We see so many everyday people coming out to help, literally giving up a 5 pack of masks from there garage or basement storage shelf to a county collection point, I know after this initial wave blows through the same every day person will be up for true change to make ourselves less dependent and better prepared for the future.


----------



## Grizzerbear

My aunt in laws father passed away this morning. I don't know if you remember my post earlier this week but he and his wife, daughter, son in law and their newborn went to Texas and he came  back sick.  He fell into a coma while on a ventilator and never could recover. His wife did test positive a couple days later....she is quarantining and so far so good. I didn't know him real well but obviously I feel terrible for his wife and the whole family. It's crazy. That's all I can really say.


----------



## weatherguy

Sorry to hear that Grizz, it's a nasty virus and beginning to touch a lot of people.


----------



## Medic21

SpaceBus said:


> This is a tragedy.


Actually this is a Strategy, keeping it this low may be a miracle.


----------



## peakbagger

Sympathies to the folks who gave us the news on their relatives or friends who passed. This is needed to make things "real"for some folks. Maybe it will offset some  of the vile commentary and grandstanding by conservative commentators that this is a scam or being manipulated by some made up evil entity.


----------



## kennyp2339

peakbagger said:


> Sympathies to the folks who gave us the news on their relatives or friends who passed. This is needed to make things "real"for some folks. Maybe it will offset some  of the vile commentary and grandstanding by conservative commentators that this is a scam or being manipulated by some made up evil entity.


I def agree, but there will always be that handful of people out there, hopefully there voice in the conversation will get muted and discarded by the masses, while not pointing out people directly I think of those that are flat earthers, antivaxxer's and the large churches that still are fighting to meet up for sermons.


----------



## kennyp2339

I just got my updated daily company email, we have another person at the shop that has tested positive for the virus, he started feeling symptoms on 3/26 and was sent home, the next day he made an appointment to get tested, the test just came back on Wednesday positive. 
This is part of the problem and why we need to wear face masks, the virus may have been infecting him up to 4-8 days before he showed symptoms, luckily he's one of the people that work our second shift and has very little contact with the physical office, even at the earliest part of the possible infection our company started taking precautions on isolating everyone, in his case he was directed to arrive from work, and get into his own company truck (that no one else uses) and take all orders or calls directly from his phone and computer.  
A close friend of mine that's a career firefighter in the city of Passaic unfortunately had a fellow co-worker that succumbed to the virus earlier this week, he was 32 yrs old, 2 years on the job, also was an emt, he left behind a wife and two young children.


----------



## SpaceBus

kennyp2339 said:


> I agree with that, but always remember, with tragedies almost always comes innovation, lessons learned, and change.
> We are in the way beginning of this virus, but already we as a country and like the rest of the world are learning from mistakes that have been made which may have contributed to the rapid intensity of the virus.
> Just my own personal beliefs here, but one of the greatest lessons learned so far is that we need our nations governments to speak with each other clearer, I know in recent weeks / months there's been finger pointing towards the Chinese, did the US operate efficiently? probably not, but did the Chinese operate efficiently in communication? probably not.
> I have learned that we in the US  cannot afford to outsource manufacturing anymore, from raw materials to actual factories that make general equipment, not necessarily medical equipment, but more then what we have now.
> We see so many everyday people coming out to help, literally giving up a 5 pack of masks from there garage or basement storage shelf to a county collection point, I know after this initial wave blows through the same every day person will be up for true change to make ourselves less dependent and better prepared for the future.


Indeed. My wife and I are hopeful for some meaningful regime changes globally, but I'm also not holding my breath. I think production, especially solar components, medical, and textile industries will return to power in the US. A big part of colonial success came from textiles.


----------



## Ashful

As of this morning:

6098 deaths
10,411 recoveries
Mortality = 6098 / (6098+10,411) = 37%

I still expect this number to trend down over time, but I’m surprised it’s not, already.  The things that will bring it down, in chronological order, should be:

1. Increasing number of non-critical cases being tested or presumed positive.
2.  Improved treatment protocols (eg hydrochloroquin, etc)
3.   Eventual vaccine (next year)


----------



## SpaceBus

Ashful said:


> As of this morning:
> 
> 6098 deaths
> 10,411 recoveries
> Mortality = 6098 / (6098+10,411) = 37%
> 
> I still expect this number to trend down over time, but I’m surprised it’s not, already.  The things that will bring it down, in chronological order, should be:
> 
> 1. Increasing number of non-critical cases being tested or presumed positive.
> 2.  Improved treatment protocols (eg hydrochloroquin, etc)
> 3.   Eventual vaccine (next year)



This is still pretty dire. My wife was watching something yesterday that really put a lot of blame on China for under/misrepreporting events.


----------



## Medic21

kennyp2339 said:


> I just got my updated daily company email, we have another person at the shop that has tested positive for the virus, he started feeling symptoms on 3/26 and was sent home, the next day he made an appointment to get tested, the test just came back on Wednesday positive.
> This is part of the problem and why we need to wear face masks, the virus may have been infecting him up to 4-8 days before he showed symptoms, luckily he's one of the people that work our second shift and has very little contact with the physical office, even at the earliest part of the possible infection our company started taking precautions on isolating everyone, in his case he was directed to arrive from work, and get into his own company truck (that no one else uses) and take all orders or calls directly from his phone and computer.
> A close friend of mine that's a career firefighter in the city of Passaic unfortunately had a fellow co-worker that succumbed to the virus earlier this week, he was 32 yrs old, 2 years on the job, also was an emt, he left behind a wife and two young children.


The only thing a mask will do is stop you from spreading it if you have it.  There is even a question on the effectiveness of N95 masks on pts that are ventilated.  

The one thing about the deaths they are not releasing is the actual cause of death. They are releasing the fact the person tested positive at the time of death but, not the cause. Was it an underlying undiagnosed medical problem? Was it a known medical problem? They should also compare the deaths to the number of flu deaths from the comparable timeframe. When you look at those numbers side by side, I’m concerned but, the flu is still responsible for more deaths a 3:1 ratio a day in the US than Coronavirus is.

Could you imagine if the news would post how many people died in the US each day like this from the flu.  There have been from 36000-56000 teach year for the last decade.


----------



## mcdougy

The statement " were all in this together" is an understatement to say the least.
All countries medical systems are failing to stand up to this virus. All are trying, brave people do their jobs, but resources AND directives from above are failing. Now the pressure of government hoarding is showing its ugly face. 
Trust in humanity morals will hopefully prevail......."we are ALL in this together"

My father's situation is still unfolding, currently he sounds healthy. My full story is outrageous on the handling of the situation. Not only on a personal level, on a country wide level for LTC residents. They are being left unprotected.


----------



## AlbergSteve

Some promise here, but it's still going to take time.



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/trial-drug-covid-19-ubc-1.5519348


----------



## kennyp2339

Medic21 said:


> When you look at those numbers side by side, I’m concerned but, the flu is still responsible for more deaths a 3:1 ratio a day in the US than Coronavirus is.


I am not trying to discredit your rational here, but comparing the flu to corona is looking like apples to oranges here, first is the data itself, with the flu we compile the data at the end of the year, its easier to do because many regions in different geographical areas have "seasons" we also have a vaccine which seems to be 80% effective, and our scientists can isolate the strain which they believe can become the most problematic.
Corona is different, if I were to ask you 5 months ago what you would think about this virus, you wouldn't be able to even identify it, In January is when we started to receive many reports coming from news agencies and social media from China.
Our current data on Corona is not even remotely complete yet so far since being affected by it for 1 month we are quickly realizing that this is way more aggressive then the flu, just by the numbers of people that have succumbed below the age of 60.
Here's some food for thought: https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/hea...ronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu
Then there's the news coming out of Washington DC eluding to the fact that the US can see upwards of 200k in deaths, this is in our fully developed country vs the flu which  in the US kills on average between 12k - 60k a year.
Just image what its like or going to be like in our poor 3rd world countries or our island nations that don't get the full support of the main land.
This link is a little more scarier in my opinion, watch the data get compiled into a simple bar graph, the bar graph shows the US daily average cause of death : https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/


----------



## paulnlee

kennyp2339 said:


> I just got my updated daily company email, we have another person at the shop that has tested positive for the virus, he started feeling symptoms on 3/26 and was sent home, the next day he made an appointment to get tested, the test just came back on Wednesday positive.
> This is part of the problem and why we need to wear face masks, the virus may have been infecting him up to 4-8 days before he showed symptoms, luckily he's one of the people that work our second shift and has very little contact with the physical office, even at the earliest part of the possible infection our company started taking precautions on isolating everyone, in his case he was directed to arrive from work, and get into his own company truck (that no one else uses) and take all orders or calls directly from his phone and computer.
> A close friend of mine that's a career firefighter in the city of Passaic unfortunately had a fellow co-worker that succumbed to the virus earlier this week, he was 32 yrs old, 2 years on the job, also was an emt, he left behind a wife and two young children.


https://americanmilitarynews.com/20...virus-officials-call-it-a-line-of-duty-death/   This him? Saw it on a news site I go to.


----------



## Sodbuster

My wife works in a unit that cares for COVID patients, and has seen them go from "relatively" normal and talking to dead within 12 hours. Some are pulled off the vent and put on "comfort care" because the vent is having no effect and others need it worse.


----------



## johneh

Ontario just shut down all construction sites 
So now Ontario is just about completely shut down 
Amazon prime no 2-day delivery they are saying 30 days 
Sure hope my meat bird order arrives as promised next Tuesday 
(not Amazon) (Chicken and turkey chicks)


----------



## Medic21

kennyp2339 said:


> I am not trying to discredit your rational here, but comparing the flu to corona is looking like apples to oranges here, first is the data itself, with the flu we compile the data at the end of the year, its easier to do because many regions in different geographical areas have "seasons" we also have a vaccine which seems to be 80% effective, and our scientists can isolate the strain which they believe can become the most problematic.
> Corona is different, if I were to ask you 5 months ago what you would think about this virus, you wouldn't be able to even identify it, In January is when we started to receive many reports coming from news agencies and social media from China.
> Our current data on Corona is not even remotely complete yet so far since being affected by it for 1 month we are quickly realizing that this is way more aggressive then the flu, just by the numbers of people that have succumbed below the age of 60.
> Here's some food for thought: https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/hea...ronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu
> Then there's the news coming out of Washington DC eluding to the fact that the US can see upwards of 200k in deaths, this is in our fully developed country vs the flu which  in the US kills on average between 12k - 60k a year.
> Just image what its like or going to be like in our poor 3rd world countries or our island nations that don't get the full support of the main land.
> This link is a little more scarier in my opinion, watch the data get compiled into a simple bar graph, the bar graph shows the US daily average cause of death : https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/


I get what you’re saying and I even said I’m not trying to downplay it. But the fact still stands that three times the number of people die from the flu virus every day right now as compared to COVID-19.  I get what you’re saying and I even said I’m not trying to downplay it. But the fact still stands that three times the number of people die from the flu virus every day right now as compared to COVID-19.

I was notified of patient I had tested positive and he died. I can tell you for a fact he died because of the massive head bleed he had from falling 12 feet and landing on concrete with his head. And now he’s in the numbers of those that died from COVID-19.  The only reason he was testing was he was on a ventilator and being put in an ICU bed when he was already brain dead and has zero chance of recovery.

Not tell me how accurate are those numbers I can guarantee you there are many more They have died in similar ways and were tested but they weren’t at the hospital because they were sick from this disease.


----------



## NickW

johneh said:


> Ontario just shut down all construction sites
> So now Ontario is just about completely shut down
> Amazon prime no 2-day delivery they are saying 30 days
> Sure hope my meat bird order arrives as promised next Tuesday
> (not Amazon) (Chicken and turkey chicks)


I've been saying for weeks already that we should do this too! Talk about a place for things to get spread around. Carpenters, electricians, HVAC, plumbers... all on the same commercial jobsite. One infected person could spread it to how many who would then take it home...


----------



## bholler

Medic21 said:


> I get what you’re saying and I even said I’m not trying to downplay it. But the fact still stands that three times the number of people die from the flu virus every day right now as compared to COVID-19.  I get what you’re saying and I even said I’m not trying to downplay it. But the fact still stands that three times the number of people die from the flu virus every day right now as compared to COVID-19.
> 
> I was notified of patient I had tested positive and he died. I can tell you for a fact he died because of the massive head bleed he had from falling 12 feet and landing on concrete with his head. And now he’s in the numbers of those that died from COVID-19.  The only reason he was testing was he was on a ventilator and being put in an ICU bed when he was already brain dead and has zero chance of recovery.
> 
> Not tell me how accurate are those numbers I can guarantee you there are many more They have died in similar ways and were tested but they weren’t at the hospital because they were sick from this disease.


We know the numbers aren't accurate.  But honestly I am pretty sure the number who have died from covid-19 and were not tested out number the cases like the one you cited.  

For someone who keeps saying you aren't trying to down play it you sure do spend allot of time telling us it isn't very serious.


----------



## paulnlee

bholler said:


> We know the numbers aren't accurate.  But honestly I am pretty sure the number who have died from covid-19 and were not tested out number the cases like the one you cited.
> 
> For someone who keeps saying you aren't trying to down play it you sure do spend allot of time telling us it isn't very serious.


He's supplied far more facts than you never gov guys


----------



## kennyp2339

Medic21 said:


> Not tell me how accurate are those numbers I can guarantee you there are many more They have died in similar ways and were tested but they weren’t at the hospital because they were sick from this disease.


I get what your saying, but the rapid spread along with one months of data even at 90% accuracy has me very concerned, especially for the long haul ride we're all on, but I do have to hand it to you for working the front lines as a paramedic, these days.. para-magic, all these data points are really just semantics in your case or any nurse, doctor, ems worker, first responder, ect... the point is, is that everyone should be isolating themselves as much as possible, keep accident rates low and pray they don't contract this and if they do, its a mild form so that they don't have to use resources like hospitals or emergency life saving equipment.


----------



## bholler

paulnlee said:


> He's supplied far more facts than you never gov guys


????  Never gov guys?

He has given us his interpretation of what he has experienced in his area of the country.   I am not at all saying he is lying or purposely trying to mislead anyone.   Just that he is obviously looking at it from one specific view point and that determines how he sees things.   I am pretty sure the hard truth is somewhere between his view and that fed to us by much of the media.


----------



## paulnlee

bholler said:


> ????  Never gov guys?
> 
> He has given us his interpretation of what he has experienced in his area of the country.   I am not at all saying he is lying or purposely trying to mislead anyone.   Just that he is obviously looking at it from one specific view point and that determines how he sees things.   I am pretty sure the hard truth is somewhere between his view and that fed to us by much of the media.


So lets see. On the one hand we have a guy who cleans chimneys and the other a guy that tends to emergency service every day. Who to believe. And we have OUR gov trying their best, who warned about it back in Jan and we have the media who still haven't recovered from 2016. Gee, who to believe.


----------



## bholler

paulnlee said:


> So lets see. On the one hand we have a guy who cleans chimneys and the other a guy that tends to emergency service every day. Who to believe. And we have OUR gov trying their best, who warned about it back in Jan and we have the media who still haven't recovered from 2016. Gee, who to believe.


You shouldn't believe any of them you should look at the actual facts and form your own opinion.  

And only a few govt officials warned about this early.  The statements made from the top untill recently were very dismissive.  And honestly much of the govt is still playing politics and childishly bickering between each other.   Although they actually have accomplished a fair amount in a short time.  Unfortunately they waited a long time to get started


----------



## Sodbuster

If hindsight were 20/20, this wouldn't be a worldwide pandemic. We're learning more everyday, and hopefully applying what we've learned. Playing the blame game doesn't heal anyone, nor do personal attacks.


----------



## begreen

SpaceBus said:


> This is still pretty dire. My wife was watching something yesterday that really put a lot of blame on China for under/misrepreporting events.


Lots of blame going around in some places. They should be careful where the finger is pointing as we did the same and in some cases it's still happening.


----------



## Medic21

bholler said:


> ????  Never gov guys?
> 
> He has given us his interpretation of what he has experienced in his area of the country.   I am not at all saying he is lying or purposely trying to mislead anyone.   Just that he is obviously looking at it from one specific view point and that determines how he sees things.   I am pretty sure the hard truth is somewhere between his view and that fed to us by much of the media.


Locally, I would tell you not to worry much at all.  But, we are very rural and only have 3 confirmed cases in the county I work and 1 in the county I live.  90 min away and I’d tell you to be worried very much if you lived in Indianapolis.  97% of the deaths in our state are over 60 years old also.  I’m 42 and I’m in decent shape, even though I smoke, so I’m not too worried.  

My OPINION is that if you live and stay rural your gonna be inconvenienced more than what’s necessary to stop the spread where you live compared to in the urban areas.  The majority of us that don’t live in the city prob still are living almost normal lives And will continue to do so.


----------



## bholler

Medic21 said:


> Locally, I would tell you not to worry much at all.  But, we are very rural and only have 3 confirmed cases in the county I work and 1 in the county I live.  90 min away and I’d tell you to be worried very much if you lived in Indianapolis.  97% of the deaths in our state are over 60 years old also.  I’m 42 and I’m in decent shape, even though I smoke, so I’m not too worried.
> 
> My OPINION is that if you live and stay rural your gonna be inconvenienced more than what’s necessary to stop the spread where you live compared to in the urban areas.  The majority of us that don’t live in the city prob still are living almost normal lives And will continue to do so.


The idea that rural areas are somehow immune to this disease is dangerous.  Yes because population density is lower the risk is lower.  But it can still spread fast.


----------



## Medic21

bholler said:


> The idea that rural areas are somehow immune to this disease is dangerous.  Yes because population density is lower the risk is lower.  But it can still spread fast.


I’m by no means saying that we are immune.  I’m saying we have a lot less risk as our normal lives don’t have that much interaction anyways.  If I wasn’t working EMS And was staying at home like a normal person would right now I actually wouldn’t care about this.


----------



## bholler

Medic21 said:


> I’m by no means saying that we are immune.  I’m saying we have a lot less risk as our normal lives don’t have that much interaction anyways.  If I wasn’t working EMS And was staying at home like a normal person would right now I actually wouldn’t care about this.


Fair enough.


----------



## AlbergSteve

johneh said:


> Ontario just shut down all construction sites
> So now Ontario is just about completely shut down
> Amazon prime no 2-day delivery they are saying 30 days
> Sure hope my meat bird order arrives as promised next Tuesday
> (not Amazon) (Chicken and turkey chicks)


Good luck, talked to supplier yesterday and they can't get any chicks. We've probably has 50 emails and phone calls for chicks.








						America Stress-Bought All the Baby Chickens (Published 2020)
					

In times of anxiety, we hoard the sources of eggs.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## SpaceBus

AlbergSteve said:


> Good luck, talked to supplier yesterday and they can't get any chicks. We've probably has 50 emails and phone calls for chicks.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> America Stress-Bought All the Baby Chickens (Published 2020)
> 
> 
> In times of anxiety, we hoard the sources of eggs.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com


I'm not expecting my order for a month or so.


----------



## johneh

I buy from a local guy and they will be packed Tuesday 
night and delivered every early wed morning 
And that's why I deal locally never failed me in the last 30 years 
Just him his wife and son. hatch 25000 chicks a year


----------



## SpaceBus

johneh said:


> I buy from a local guy and they will be packed Tuesday
> night and delivered every early wed morning
> And that's why I deal locally never failed me in the last 30 years
> Just him his wife and son. hatch 25000 chicks a year


I wish there were local hatcheries, but this is one of the downsides to living so remote. I just hope even 20 of the 25 survive to make it to the coop.


----------



## MTY

Today I had to go shopping.  The entire trip into town Tennyson's charge of the light brigade was running through my head.  Into the valley of death...
I joke around about a lot of things, but this is going to hurt a lot of people.  The worst is going to be for those not having a chance at decathexis .  Too soon, too fast, to permanent.  kennyp mentioned a 32 year old dying.  In approximately 6 months the shock will wear off enough for his family to realize the finality of the situation.  This will be the hardest part of grieving, but the pain will last for as long as they live.  I hate to even think about this stuff.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

I am most worried about my Mom. She turns 90 this month. She is not in great health. I am the only child she has left, out of 4. 
I am in the US , she is in The Netherlands. My spouse and I have tickets to fly to celebrate her birthday. We were supposed to fly on the 21st. American Airlines canceled the flight. Normally, it would take us 7,5 hours to fly from Philly to Amsterdam. I checked last night, all direct flights are canceled. It would take us now 27+ hours to get there. Multiple stops. As a US citizen I cannot get into The Netherlands right now. If she would get sick and worse, I won't be there in time to make arrangements. I call her a few times each week to keep her spirits up. I am not worried at all about the health of my wife and myself, but my Mom's situation is keeping me awake.


----------



## kennyp2339

My father works in the textile industry, the company he works for mainly makes fabric and prints for clothing, they are now re-tooling and making mask fabric, shipping the material out to other companies that are re-tooling to make masks.
This is so encouraging to me, it shows that USA is starting to rework itself and make itself better through prevention.


----------



## Sawset

My daughter is an ICU RN in a small hospital. Last week they were waiting and wondering. This week:
"Work has been fairly stressful. Multiple New procedures and policies everyday. Things change by the minute it seems. We've had a couple of vented patients so far. Applying and removing the PPE is nerve-racking, it needs to be done in a very particular order. 
It's hard knowing that we can't provide as much care as we normally would, and since they are limiting entries and time, we have to make sure we are efficient and do everything we need to do in the room. However, a newly vented patient is very busy, I could easily spend 3 hours in that room."


----------



## Ashful

ER staff can’t be paid enough for what they do.  God bless them.  Hopefully they’re able to weather this storm, and it doesn’t drive too many away from the business, in the short term.


----------



## black smoke signals

Medic21 or whoever Question educate me here. Back to the bats or other mammals that have lungs that breath why don’t they get sick droplets could enter into their lungs too?


----------



## Medic21

black smoke signals said:


> Medic21 or whoever Question educate me here. Back to the bats or other mammals that have lungs that breath why don’t they get sick droplets could enter into their lungs too?


That’s way above my pay grade.  1 in 4 humans are now believed to be asymptomatic.


----------



## begreen

This looks like a promising development. Hope it gets into trials soon. It's why investing in scientific research is so important.





__





						COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate Shows Promise in First Peer-Reviewed Research
					

University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine scientists announced a potential vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, the new coronavirus causing the COVID-19 pandemic. When tested in mice, the vaccine, delivered through a fingertip-sized patch, produces antibodies specific to SARS-CoV-2 at quantities...




					www.pittwire.pitt.edu


----------



## SpaceBus

Chinese virologist don't think the novel coronavirus was transmitted from the horseshoe bats but instead from civets, which are an intermediate carrier. This virus does not live in humans very well.


----------



## begreen

SpaceBus said:


> Chinese virologist don't think the novel coronavirus was transmitted from the horseshoe bats but instead from civets, which are an intermediate carrier. This virus does not live in humans very well.


Source? All of what I have read links it to bats.


----------



## SpaceBus

begreen said:


> Source? All of what I have read links it to bats.


Horseshoe bats are the reservoir, not the source of transmission, at least that's the theory.








						How China’s ‘Bat Woman’ Hunted Down Viruses from SARS to the New Coronavirus
					

Wuhan-based virologist Shi Zhengli has identified dozens of deadly SARS-like viruses in bat caves, and she warns there are more out there




					www.scientificamerican.com


----------



## begreen

Okay, I had read that article. It's mostly about the findings of previous epidemics. SARS-COV1 was traced to civet cats as the carrier.
The article states that the focus should focus on high-risk viral groups in certain mammals prone to coronavirus infections, such as bats, rodents, badgers, civets, pangolins, and nonhuman primates. This is consistent with prior virus outbreak sources, but I don't think it links SARS-COV2 to civet cats yet.

Does anyone have a subscription to New Scientist? I would like to know what this more recent article is pointing to.








						The hunt for patient zero: Where did the coronavirus outbreak start?
					

Growing evidence suggests the covid-19 outbreak may not have started at Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood Market in December after all. Finding its origins may help us stop it happening again




					www.newscientist.com


----------



## Sodbuster

Animal to human viruses are uncommon but not unheard of as we can see from this pandemic. The reason this and others like it are so deadly is that our body has no natural immunity to it, and isn't sure how to handle it, so it puts the immune system into overdrive, and ends up attacking itself.


----------



## Medic21

Sodbuster said:


> Animal to human viruses are uncommon but not unheard of as we can see from this pandemic. The reason this and others like it are so deadly is that our body has no natural immunity to it, and isn't sure how to handle it, so it puts the immune system into overdrive, and ends up attacking itself.


The worst cases are appearing to be from a condition called Cytokine Storm, an autoimmune reaction.  There are current tests to use an immunosuppressive drug to stop it.  There will be a lot learned for years after this is over about the immune response because we have never seen something like this.


----------



## begreen

They've been studying cytokine storms for a while now. Researchers think that cytokine storms were responsible for the high number of young people dying during the Spanish Flu. It's also believed to have happened as a result of SARS and Hanta virus and can happen as a side effect of some drugs. This is what has led to a class of drugs that are now hoped to address the issue. 








						Targeting the “Cytokine Storm” for Therapeutic Benefit | Clinical and Vaccine Immunology
					

Inflammation is the body's first line of defense against infection or injury, responding to challenges by activating innate and adaptive responses. Microbes have evolved a diverse range of strategies to avoid triggering inflammatory responses. ...



					cvi.asm.org


----------



## Medic21

begreen said:


> They've been studying cytokine storms for a while now. Researchers think that cytokine storms were responsible for the high number of young people dying during the Spanish Flu. It's also believed to have happened as a result of SARS and Hanta virus and can happen as a side effect of some drugs. This is what has led to a class of drugs that are now hoped to address the issue.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Targeting the “Cytokine Storm” for Therapeutic Benefit | Clinical and Vaccine Immunology
> 
> 
> Inflammation is the body's first line of defense against infection or injury, responding to challenges by activating innate and adaptive responses. Microbes have evolved a diverse range of strategies to avoid triggering inflammatory responses. ...
> 
> 
> 
> cvi.asm.org


The difference is the scale of this is unlike the SARS and MERs and we have a little more research ability than we did in 1913.


----------



## begreen

Yes, the scope of this has shone a spotlight on the need for an effective treatment. Heck, back in 1918 they didn't even have antibiotics which would have helped many. They were still blood-letting in some places.


----------



## Sodbuster

Medic21 said:


> I’m by no means saying that we are immune.  I’m saying we have a lot less risk as our normal lives don’t have that much interaction anyways.  If I wasn’t working EMS And was staying at home like a normal person would right now I actually wouldn’t care about this.



In our state of Michigan 2 counties, Wayne and Oakland are responsible for 82% of the deaths from COVID. I've watched it spread north to to northern lower Michigan and the Upper Peninsula. There is really very little up there other than vacation homes and hunting cabins, that is taking some liberties, but for the most part is true.


----------



## Woody Stover

begreen said:


> back in 1918 they didn't even have antibiotics which would have helped many. They were still blood-letting in some places.


There will be plenty of bloodletting before it's all said and done..


----------



## Sawset

begreen said:


> Okay, I had read that article. It's mostly about the findings of previous epidemics. SARS-COV1 was traced to civet cats as the carrier.
> The article states that the focus should focus on high-risk viral groups in certain mammals prone to coronavirus infections, such as bats, rodents, badgers, civets, pangolins, and nonhuman primates. This is consistent with prior virus outbreak sources, but I don't think it links SARS-COV2 to civet cats yet.
> 
> Does anyone have a subscription to New Scientist? I would like to know what this more recent article is pointing to.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The hunt for patient zero: Where did the coronavirus outbreak start?
> 
> 
> Growing evidence suggests the covid-19 outbreak may not have started at Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood Market in December after all. Finding its origins may help us stop it happening again
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newscientist.com


Also don't have access to the article, but the following offered some areas for further investigation, and possibly what doubt the above story was eluding to:

From March 17 Nature Medicine








						The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2 - Nature Medicine
					






					www.nature.com
				




"Given the similarity of SARS-CoV-2 to bat SARS-CoV-like coronaviruses2, it is likely that bats serve as reservoir hosts for its progenitor."

"some pangolin coronaviruses exhibit strong similarity to SARS-CoV-2"

Additional mutation could have  -
"occured during human-to-human transmission"


----------



## paulnlee

__





						Full Measure: April 5, 2020 - Cover Story: Frontlines of Coronavirus Battle
					

fullmeasure




					fullmeasure.news
				




I watch her every week. First segment on corona. On edit watch the last one too and what's coming next week.


----------



## begreen

paulnlee said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Full Measure: April 5, 2020 - Cover Story: Frontlines of Coronavirus Battle
> 
> 
> fullmeasure
> 
> 
> 
> 
> fullmeasure.news
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I watch her every week. First segment on corona. On edit watch the last one too and what's coming next week.


Good interview with Colonel Cox. I'm glad the Army lab is also working toward a solution.


----------



## begreen

The random nature of this disease is troubling.








						The mystery of why the coronavirus kills some young people | CNN
					

Covid-19 seems to most seriously affect older people, particularly those with pre-existing conditions such as heart disease, lung disease and diabetes. But it's becoming apparent there are many younger people who still get very sick and die.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## CaptSpiff

Sawset said:


> My daughter is an ICU RN in a small hospital. .....
> "....... It's hard knowing that we can't provide as much care as we normally would, and since they are limiting entries and time, we have to make sure we are efficient and do everything we need to do in the room. However, a newly vented patient is very busy, I could easily spend 3 hours in that room."


I wonder if this is why 3 recovered NYC patients interviewed on TV claimed they were place in a coma as part of their treatment, ie to reduce workload on the hospital staff ???


----------



## johneh

Or is it that you are put in a coma to be on a ventilator


----------



## Sawset

johneh said:


> Or is it that you are put in a coma to be on a ventilator


I believe there is anesthetic involved, because the initial response is as if they were choking.


----------



## Medic21

CaptSpiff said:


> I wonder if this is why 3 recovered NYC patients interviewed on TV claimed they were place in a coma as part of their treatment, ie to reduce workload on the hospital staff ???


The only way you can be intubated is to have your gag reflex taken away.  Can be done with sedatives but, safer to use Roccuronium and a anesthetic like Amidate or Ketamine and both are disassociatives.   After that you will be heavily sedated and probably be on a drip of a paralytic and sedative so you don’t fight the vent.  I use Vecuronium and a combination of Versed and Fentanyl regularly.  In order for the lungs and body to heal we need complete control of respiratory.  A good side effect is Versed also  has a amnesia property so you won’t remember anything.


----------



## black smoke signals

Interesting post!    

A 4-year-old Malayan tiger named Nadia tested positive for the novel coronavirus, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reports. Six other tigers and lions at New York's Bronx Zoo are also sick. All of the animals are expected to make a full recovery are believed to have been infected by a zoo employee.

The USDA says there are no known cases of the virus in U.S. pets or livestock. “It’s important to assure pet owners and animal owners that at this time there isn’t any evidence that they can spread the virus,” said Dr. Jane Rooney, a veterinarian and a USDA official. Read


----------



## peakbagger

Folks forget during the H1N1 scare, wild fowl were infected with it and there was concerns that as they migrated they would spread it to domestic fowl.


----------



## Ashful

begreen said:


> The random nature of this disease is troubling.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The mystery of why the coronavirus kills some young people | CNN
> 
> 
> Covid-19 seems to most seriously affect older people, particularly those with pre-existing conditions such as heart disease, lung disease and diabetes. But it's becoming apparent there are many younger people who still get very sick and die.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com


An old friend of mine passed away from this a few days ago.  He was 46 years old and healthy, as far as I knew.


----------



## NickW

Ashful said:


> An old friend of mine passed away from this a few days ago.  He was 46 years old and healthy, as far as I knew.


Condolences Ashful... That's my age.

I hope more people start taking this a lot more seriously. I know my family will continue to hunker down; but it's only a matter of time before my wife, who still has to go in to the office because she's in the "essential" construction industry (flooring for Pete's sake!), brings it home or we get it out shopping for essentials? If 3 out of 4 are non-symptomatic, which one of the 4 of us gets seriously sick or dies? Scary thought...


----------



## Sodbuster

Medic21 said:


> The only way you can be intubated is to have your gag reflex taken away.  Can be done with sedatives but, safer to use Roccuronium and a anesthetic like Amidate or Ketamine and both are disassociatives.   After that you will be heavily sedated and probably be on a drip of a paralytic and sedative so you don’t fight the vent.  I use Vecuronium and a combination of Versed and Fentanyl regularly.  In order for the lungs and body to heal we need complete control of respiratory. * A good side effect is Versed also  has a amnesia property so you won’t remember anything.*



My Dad always tells the nurses they are so pretty when he is on Versed, LOL. Good thing he can claim amnesia.


----------



## Ashful

So much for banning travelers from China to the USA several weeks ago to prevent the spread of the disease.  According to this article, at least 40,000 people have traveled from China to the US after travel restrictions were instituted due to Corona virus. 









						川普對中國的旅行限制起作用了嗎？
					

數據分析顯示，禁令就算有效，可能也為時已晚。武漢疫情暴發後，至少43萬人從中國飛抵美國，其中近4萬人是在旅行限制實施後抵達的；各機場的入境篩查也鬆緊不一。




					www.google.com


----------



## Sawset

Ashful said:


> So much for banning travelers from China to the USA.  According to this article, at least 40,000 people have traveled from China to the US after travel restrictions were instituted due to Corona virus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 川普對中國的旅行限制起作用了嗎？
> 
> 
> 數據分析顯示，禁令就算有效，可能也為時已晚。武漢疫情暴發後，至少43萬人從中國飛抵美國，其中近4萬人是在旅行限制實施後抵達的；各機場的入境篩查也鬆緊不一。
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.google.com


Plenty of flights available, at least now.


----------



## Sawset

COVID-19 vaccine candidate shows promise in first peer-reviewed research
					

A potential COVID-19 vaccine, delivered by microscopic needles, produces antibodies specific to the virus when tested in mice. This is the first peer-reviewed paper describing a COVID-19 vaccine candidate. The next step is a human clinical trial.



					www.eurekalert.org


----------



## begreen

I'm watching that one. Looks promising. Posted about it on the previous page.


----------



## begreen

There was an article today about why mortality rates can't be trusted right now. 








						Coronavirus death toll: Americans are almost certainly dying of COVID-19 but being left out of the official count
					

The fast-spreading novel coronavirus is almost certainly killing Americans who are not included in the nation's growing death toll, according to public health experts and government officials involved in the tally. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention counts...




					www.seattletimes.com


----------



## Ashful

Sawset said:


> COVID-19 vaccine candidate shows promise in first peer-reviewed research
> 
> 
> A potential COVID-19 vaccine, delivered by microscopic needles, produces antibodies specific to the virus when tested in mice. This is the first peer-reviewed paper describing a COVID-19 vaccine candidate. The next step is a human clinical trial.
> 
> 
> 
> www.eurekalert.org


My neighbor owns a company that provides equipment to a lot of pharmaceutical companies, and tells me that more than one of his customers have already started large-scale manufacture of vaccines for COVID-19, short-cutting the normally-serialized process of trials, then manufacture, then distribution.  They are working under the assumption that either their vaccine will acquire eventual approval after testing, or that the fed will cover their investment if trials fail.  I don't think he knows which vaccines are being manufactured by these customers of his, or at least he didn't mention it to me, but the point was that they are doing what can be done to shorten the time to manufacture and distribute the product, post-trial.
[/QUOTE]

Are you going to go as far as moderating someone for responding to one of your own blatantly-political posts?


----------



## SpaceBus

Medic21 said:


> Just as the families of 600,000 that die from cancer could probably care less about a few dying from a virus that never impacted them.
> 
> it all perspective.  The perspective now is we destroy our economy to save a few thousand people that are well within their right to stay quarantined if they choose to.  If you don’t feel safe then stay away from the public.  It’s a really simple concept.  If you feel at risk and they open the country and you go out because your a dumbass that has to have someone to tell you to wipe...   that’s on you


Do you know if that number includes cancer patients that are 70+? I imagine most folks who die of old age actually die from some kind of cancer.


----------



## bholler

Medic21 said:


> Just as the families of 600,000 that die from cancer could probably care less about a few dying from a virus that never impacted them.
> 
> it all perspective.  The perspective now is we destroy our economy to save a few thousand people that are well within their right to stay quarantined if they choose to.  If you don’t feel safe then stay away from the public.  It’s a really simple concept.  If you feel at risk and they open the country and you go out because your a dumbass that has to have someone to tell you to wipe...   that’s on you


A few thousand what exactly do you consider a few?   Is that under your strategy of ignoring the problem.  Or is it with the strategy of the majority of the world's scientific community?


----------



## Medic21

bholler said:


> A few thousand what exactly do you consider a few?   Is that under your strategy of ignoring the problem.  Or is it with the strategy of the majority of the world's scientific community?


I never said ignore.  I’ve repeatedly stated that those that are high risk stay quarantined.  I even said if you feel you need to you can.  That’s better than the government taking away rights


----------



## Medic21

SpaceBus said:


> Do you know if that number includes cancer patients that are 70+? I imagine most folks who die of old age actually die from some kind of cancer.


I’ve never seen an age in the statistics of a number of cancer deaths.  Never even looked for it.


----------



## mcdougy

__





						COVID-19 and Anxiety | Here to Help
					

Author: Canadian Mental Health Association, BC Division




					www.heretohelp.bc.ca
				




Make sure you read it all.....to get the best advice


----------



## Medic21

mcdougy said:


> Make sure you read it all.....to get the best advice


Is this directed at me?


----------



## MTY

The kid does pharmaceutical research.  The other day she told me that the SARS research is being dusted off and built on.  The research had been shelved when money could not be made off of it, and more profitable research was possible.  Now it will be a building block for the corona virus research which could be highly valuable.


----------



## Ashful

The last three episodes of the Itchy Boots channel on YouTube have been interesting.  I think someone on this forum originally turned me onto her, and she’s been on lockdown in Peru, trying to return to the Netherlands.  In any case, her embassy (Netherlands) is able to arrange a special flight to repatriate all of the Hollanders trapped in Peru, and as she travels across Peru to try to reach this flight you get to see how seriously another country is treating this pandemic.  During just two or three days, their situation escalates from voluntary isolation to curfews, to prohibited travel between towns, to even prohibiting travel with another person despite having special permitting from the government.

The travel restrictions are demonstrated most in episodes 73-74, I’ll link below.  But the story starts back in episode 69, and is a very interesting watch, if you have the time.


----------



## Woody Stover

As for mortality rates, they have now stalled long enough on ramping up testing that the peak death rates can pass unattributed to the virus, and politicians can't be held to account for the actual death toll that will result from their not taking the threat seriously, back when it could have made a bigger difference.


----------



## begreen

Ashful said:


> Are you going to go as far as moderating someone for responding to one of your own blatantly-political posts?


Comment removed. You are right, please accept my apology. Have friends in PR that lost several family members. Their deaths were never officially accounted for. Still sucks.


----------



## Woody Stover

Ashful said:


> Are you going to go as far as moderating someone for responding to one of your own blatantly-political posts?


----------



## begreen

mcdougy said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 and Anxiety | Here to Help
> 
> 
> Author: Canadian Mental Health Association, BC Division
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.heretohelp.bc.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Make sure you read it all.....to get the best advice


Thanks for posting. This is good advice for all.


----------



## thewoodlands

This is some info from our county website, the map isn't updated yet.
*As of 4/7/2020, there are 70 Confirmed Cases 
There are 8 Hospitalizations and 17 have been
released from Mandatory Isolation and are doing
well.*


----------



## Ashful

begreen said:


> Comment removed. You are right, please accept my apology. Have friends in PR that lost several family members. Their deaths were never officially accounted for. Still sucks.


Heh... it’s all good.  I think you know me well enough now to realize I was having fun with you, and not actually offended.


----------



## Ashful

thewoodlands said:


> This is some info from our county website, the map isn't updated yet.
> *As of 4/7/2020, there are 70 Confirmed Cases
> There are 8 Hospitalizations and 17 have been
> released from Mandatory Isolation and are doing
> well.*
> View attachment 259112


Consider yourself lucky.  Multiply those numbers by 60x, and you have my corner of the state, today.  Governor has now laid off thousands of very local state employees, as a result of this, which isn’t going to bode well for our local economic recovery.


----------



## Medic21

Ashful said:


> Consider yourself lucky.  Multiply those numbers by 60x, and you have my corner of the state, today.  Governor has now laid off thousands of very local state employees, as a result of this, which isn’t going to bode well for our local economic recovery.


Local economies may not recover in my lifetime right now.  Everyday we have a small business closed permanently.  In the end big business will be bailed out and local businesses will sink.


----------



## thewoodlands

Ashful said:


> Consider yourself lucky.  Multiply those numbers by 60x, and you have my corner of the state, today.  Governor has now laid off thousands of very local state employees, as a result of this, which isn’t going to bode well for our local economic recovery.


Most of our town workers have been off for going on three weeks and I'm seeing some state workers that are off here. The majority of our businesses have been close by state law for three weeks too so our local government budgets are shot.  Those same businesses will be closed until the end of the month, some will open back up and others won't.


I'm sure all the states will need money from the Washington.


----------



## bholler

Medic21 said:


> Local economies may not recover in my lifetime right now.  Everyday we have a small business closed permanently.  In the end big business will be bailed out and local businesses will sink.


There are many different sources of funds available and programs to help small businesses.


----------



## Ashful

thewoodlands said:


> Most of our town workers have been off for going on three weeks and I'm seeing some state workers that are off here. The majority of our businesses have been close by state law for three weeks too so our local government budgets are shot.  Those same businesses will be closed until the end of the month, some will open back up and others won't.
> 
> 
> I'm sure all the states will need money from the Washington.


Ideally, the state would be able to furlough these workers, so they could keep their rank, their pensions, and benefits.  Tightening your belt for a a few weeks or months is one thing, but permanently losing a job that may have been your life’s work is another.   I’m disappointed that the state doesn’t see the benefit in retaining these employees for the rebound, as if they don’t expect to need them again in a few weeks or months, or maybe I’m reading too much into it.


----------



## thewoodlands

Ashful said:


> Ideally, the state would be able to furlough these workers, so they could keep their rank, their pensions, and benefits.  Tightening your belt for a a few weeks or months is one thing, but permanently losing a job that may have been your life’s work is another.   I’m disappointed that the state doesn’t see the benefit in retaining these employees for the rebound, as if they don’t expect to need them again in a few weeks or months, or maybe I’m reading too much into it.


I say this with good intentions, hopefully you're reading too much into it. 

Stay Safe


----------



## begreen

An alternative POV in the method of treatment from the front line. Interesting.  He is focusing on the methodology of the respirator use rather than rote pressure. It is interesting to note that in Europe, where they have changed the way they are using the ventilator they are not losing patients. 








						Possible Developments in the Treatment of Acute COVID-19
					

This appears potentially quite important. Since it has to do with technical clinical details and treatment protocols I'll try to be both as precise and general as possible. Yesterday I noticed this…



					talkingpointsmemo.com


----------



## begreen

Ashful said:


> Heh... it’s all good.  I think you know me well enough now to realize I was having fun with you, and not actually offended.


The comment caused a report, some did not see it in jest.


----------



## begreen

bholler said:


> There are many different sources of funds available and programs to help small businesses.


Right now the system is overloaded. Many small businesses are trying to log on and crashing the system. It's pretty dysfunctional at a time when the owners are faced with a make or break decision going forward. They don't have the luxury of waiting weeks for this to get sorted out.


----------



## SpaceBus

begreen said:


> Right now the system is overloaded. Many small businesses are trying to log on and crashing the system. It's pretty dysfunctional at a time when the owners are faced with a make or break decision going forward. They don't have the luxury of waiting weeks for this to get sorted out.


My wife's employer is deemed necessary, but is a home nursing agency. She is unable to work right now, partly because of my immune system. Because she is deemed an essential employee, the FFCRA does not apply and she cannot get sick leave. They finally furloughed my wife, but she can't even get into the website to submit her unemployment claim. This is a real mess.


----------



## PaulOinMA

begreen said:


> … There was an article today about why mortality rates can't be trusted right now …



The April 6 Daily Update in the following (scroll down) mentions that NY reported numbers are probably low by an estimated 180 - 195 daily deaths.









						United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Medic21

begreen said:


> An alternative POV in the method of treatment from the front line. Interesting.  He is focusing on the methodology of the respirator use rather than rote pressure. It is interesting to note that in Europe, where they have changed the way they are using the ventilator they are not losing patients.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Possible Developments in the Treatment of Acute COVID-19
> 
> 
> This appears potentially quite important. Since it has to do with technical clinical details and treatment protocols I'll try to be both as precise and general as possible. Yesterday I noticed this…
> 
> 
> 
> talkingpointsmemo.com


I may not be an MD but, we have extensive training on the use of Intubation and Ventilators.  Over the last decade and a half we have become much more selective on when we take control of an airway.  The number one reason ithe human body has its own defense and compensatory mechanisms to protect itself.  When we take over the airway and use a ventilator we bypass that, sometimes to the detriment of pt outcomes.  

15 years ago if you coughed or sneezed wrong the drugs came out and boom, you had a tube. Then along cane CPAP and BiPAP, send me a message if you want to know the difference, and we began to have great outcomes, shorter ICU stays and quicker turn arounds to discharge. We became very selective as to who we intubated.

This comes along and we in EMS have not changed our though processes. But, it seams like the hospital ERs forgot everything and started dropping tubes left and right. I have questioned that from the beginning. Scott Wiengart is an ICU/ER physician in NYC and he questioned this from the beginning. We know that once that tube goes in there is a much greater risk of a poor outcome for all pts. That was proven years ago.

I agree 100% that too many pts are going on ventilators. If you need drugs to intubate a pt it may not be the best choice right now. As long as they have a gag reflex they can protect their airways and the use of high flow O2 systems may be the best use. CPAP and BiPAP can add PEEP an inspiratory pressures needed to help breathing. I’m very interested to see more in this.

We ARE NOT using RSI to intubate these pts in the field.


----------



## begreen

That is an interesting insight. I hope Dr. Kyle-Sidell is listened to. What is PEEP?
Coincidently I’m reading the Escapist right now and he is describing the perils of the death zone on Everett and what happens as one's body runs out of oxygen. Interestingly some have started taking Viagra because it opens up the aveoli and helps them adapt better to the very thin air.

Regardless of our differences in demographics, economics, etc.  I can't say thank you enough to the people on the front line. From EMTs to ICU docs to nurses and to the cleaners and janitors, you are all so important to this fragile thing called life.

EDIT:
This article discusses CPAP, BIPAP and PEEP with thoughts and concerns about CPAP use in a viral situation.








						What's the difference between coronavirus ventilators, CPAP and BiPAP machines?
					

Coronavirus has sparked a new conversation about the difference between ventilators, CPAP and BiPAP machines.




					www.foxbusiness.com


----------



## Medic21

begreen said:


> That is an interesting insight. I hope Dr. Kyle-Sidell is listened to. What is PEEP?
> Coincidently I’m reading the Escapist right now and he is describing the perils of the death zone on Everett and what happens as one's body runs out of oxygen. Interestingly some have started taking Viagra because it opens up the aveoli and helps them adapt better to the very thin air.
> 
> Regardless of our differences in demographics, economics, etc.  I can't say thank you enough to the people on the front line. From EMTs to ICU docs to nurses and to the cleaners and janitors, you are all so important to this fragile thing called life.
> 
> EDIT:
> This article discusses CPAP, BIPAP and PEEP with thoughts and concerns about CPAP use in a viral situation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What's the difference between coronavirus ventilators, CPAP and BiPAP machines?
> 
> 
> Coronavirus has sparked a new conversation about the difference between ventilators, CPAP and BiPAP machines.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.foxbusiness.com


PEEP is holding pressure in the lungs after exhalation.  It is used to keep the alveoli opened and makes use of the dead space in the lungs to allow for easier gas exchange.  It also keeps the lungs from filling up with fluid.  

CPAP can be used with a viral filter to keep from aerosolizing the virus.  That is a concern with BiPAP and vents also.  CPAP is constant PEEP though and makes work of breathing worse where BiPAP “assists” breathing kinda like a ventilator.  BiPAP is relatively new to EMS and outside of critical care units there are very few of us that have it for 911.  The Vents that do it were in the $30k range when we got ours.  Much cheaper now.


----------



## mcdougy

__





						Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) - Canada.ca
					

Learn who was eligible for the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB), if you need to repay, and about CERB debt reduction for students.




					www.canada.ca
				




Being self employed this is what I was able to sign up for today. It will help for sure. Employees are being subsided 75% of their regular pay via the government. Business has to have a 15% drop in revenues from last year to qualify for the employee subsidy.
My business is completely shut down given the situation.





__





						Archived - The Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy - Canada.ca
					

To help businesses keep and return workers to their payroll through the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, proposed the new Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy. This would provide a 75-per-cent wage subsidy to eligible employers for up to 12 weeks...




					www.canada.ca
				




This is the employee benefit









						Ottawa, banks near deal on coronavirus small business loans
					

Federal government wants five day window to verify borrowers’ details; banks push for same-day funding




					www.theglobeandmail.com
				




This has also been rolled out....if you pay back your loan before end of this year, up to 25% of principal is forgiven.


----------



## johneh

If you have been laid off in Canada 
in order not to overload the CRA web site 
your birthday indicates the day you can apply 
My youngest son was laid off the first week of march 
applied for EI or at least his boss did for him 
he received his first 2000 dollar direct deposit today 
That's pretty fast for the Canadian Gov.


----------



## thewoodlands

All the info below was taken off our county webpage.

As of 4/8/2020, there are 78 Confirmed Cases of COVID-19

There are 5 Hospitalizations and with sadness, the first COVID-19 death has been reported today as well. We mourn the loss of one of our own St. Lawrence County residents and offer our sincere condolences.

There have been 23 have been released from Mandatory Isolation and are recovering at home.


----------



## begreen

mcdougy said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) - Canada.ca
> 
> 
> Learn who was eligible for the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB), if you need to repay, and about CERB debt reduction for students.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.canada.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Being self employed this is what I was able to sign up for today. It will help for sure. Employees are being subsided 75% of their regular pay via the government. Business has to have a 15% drop in revenues from last year to qualify for the employee subsidy.
> My business is completely shut down given the situation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Archived - The Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy - Canada.ca
> 
> 
> To help businesses keep and return workers to their payroll through the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, proposed the new Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy. This would provide a 75-per-cent wage subsidy to eligible employers for up to 12 weeks...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.canada.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This is the employee benefit
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ottawa, banks near deal on coronavirus small business loans
> 
> 
> Federal government wants five day window to verify borrowers’ details; banks push for same-day funding
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theglobeandmail.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This has also been rolled out....if you pay back your loan before end of this year, up to 25% of principal is forgiven.


Hats off to Canada for caring for its workers.


----------



## begreen

Germany's early and comprehensive testing has helped it keep notably ahead of the virus compared to its neighbors.











						Pass the salt: The minute details that helped Germany build virus defences
					

One January lunchtime in a car parts company, a worker turned to a colleague and asked to borrow the salt.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Ashful

Yes, but in fairness, they had the advantage of foresight, as it ramped up two weeks earlier in Italy.  Without the benefit of having seen that, I doubt Germany could have done as well as they did.


----------



## begreen

Ashful said:


> Yes, but in fairness, they had the advantage of foresight, as it ramped up two weeks earlier in Italy.  WI thought the benefit of having seen that, I doubt Germany could have done as well as they did.


Read the article. First case was in January. They had the advantage of early detection and acting on it. Good medical forensics, record keeping, extensive testing and early action are what has kept their numbers low. As the report points out, it is the detailed follow up to cases #0 and #1 that led to quick action. Like S. Korea, they are testing 500,000 people a week.


----------



## Ashful

One thing I’m interested in, but haven’t seen any discussion of in the media, is any anticipated spike in new cases as various state forced closures and self-quarantine orders are lifted, and employers expect their employees to return to work.  If they lift those orders in two weeks, should we not expect a corresponding spike in new cases?


----------



## SpaceBus

Ashful said:


> One thing I’m interested in, but haven’t seen any discussion of in the media, is any anticipated spike in new cases as various state forced closures and self-quarantine orders are lifted, and employers expect their employees to return to work.  If they lift those orders in two weeks, should we not expect a corresponding spike in new cases?


If you chart the Maine cases you can clearly see that the stay at home measures have been effective.


----------



## begreen

What has repeatedly worked is quick action backed by a robust pandemic response. What doesn't work is denial. This is the stark difference between S. Korea, Germany, Taiwan, etc. and Italy, the US, Spain, etc.. The same thing is playing out in the states. The states that have kept the curve flat and have good testing will be able to get people back to work quicker. The states in denial are going to have a harder time at containment and returning people to the workplace.  The speed with which this will happen depends on how quickly we can ramp up testing. So far we are still woefully behind on this key objective.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/16/cdc-who-coronavirus-tests/
		


Locally, yesterday at one of our largest hospitals, a doc we know has a patient they refuse to test because she didn't fit the profile. He is convinced she has Covid-19, but without the full list of symptoms, they are still denying testing due to a continued shortage. Until we get enough testing that we can return people to the workplace with full knowledge of when they were testing negative, we will not be up to speed. To date we can not give accurate numbers of how many people have been tested or by when we will have the testing capacity to test the whole population. Now we are competing for medical supplies necessary to complete the tests like swabs, so speculating when is just a guess.


----------



## Medic21

Ashful said:


> One thing I’m interested in, but haven’t seen any discussion of in the media, is any anticipated spike in new cases as various state forced closures and self-quarantine orders are lifted, and employers expect their employees to return to work.  If they lift those orders in two weeks, should we not expect a corresponding spike in new cases?


This is exactly what will happen.  Since it takes upwards of 2 weeks to show symptoms the next time it spikes it will be outrageous.  Look at the second wave of the Spanish flu.


----------



## begreen

Medic21 said:


> This is exactly what will happen.  Since it takes upwards of 2 weeks to show symptoms the next time it spikes it will be outrageous.  Look at the second wave of the Spanish flu.


Yes, that hit with several spikes over almost 3 yrs. The second spike in the fall of 1918 was very deadly.


----------



## NickW

And unfortunately we won't be smart enough as a whole to continue isolating until the ability to test EVERYONE is available... Restrictions will get lifted, people will have big parties, one contagious person will infect 10 people who will infect 5 more each before they show symptoms and on and on...


----------



## begreen

The manual worker will be hit the hardest due to lack of testing. This BBC reporter's opener states the issues with Covid-19 and the working class in refreshingly straight-forward language. 








						Maitlis praised for 'extraordinary' opening to Newsnight
					

Coronavirus: the symptoms




					www.standard.co.uk


----------



## Ashful

begreen said:


> Yes, that hit with several spikes over almost 3 yrs. The second spike in the fall of 1918 was very deadly.


... as every Philadelphian knows:  https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/15/us/philadelphia-1918-spanish-flu-trnd/index.html

If I recall from history class, unless I'm cross-pollinating the stories in my head, the first wave to hit the US was in the ramp up to WW1, in 1914.


----------



## begreen

Ashful said:


> ... as every Philadelphian knows:  https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/15/us/philadelphia-1918-spanish-flu-trnd/index.html
> 
> If I recall from history class, unless I'm cross-pollinating the stories in my head, the first wave to hit the US was in the ramp up to WW1, in 1914.


1918-1919




__





						1918 Pandemic Influenza Historic Timeline  | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC
					

Everything you need to know about the flu illness, including symptoms, treatment and prevention.




					www.cdc.gov
				




In contrast to Philly, St. Louis's health commissioner shut down the town and they had notably less cases as a result.


----------



## Woody Stover

begreen said:


> An alternative POV in the method of treatment from the front line. Interesting.  He is focusing on the methodology of the respirator use rather than rote pressure. It is interesting to note that in Europe, where they have changed the way they are using the ventilator they are not losing patients.


Maybe it's time to ramp up cardio workouts, especially us old goats, to increase our ability to uptake oxygen..


----------



## begreen

Woody Stover said:


> Maybe it's time to ramp up cardio workouts, especially us old goats, to increase our ability to uptake oxygen..


I'd go up to the summit at Rainier for a month to acclimatize to lower oxygen levels, but the park is closed.


----------



## begreen

Here is a Hong Kong epidemiologist's perspective on getting people back to work.








						Opinion | Lockdown Can’t Last Forever. Here’s How to Lift It. (Published 2020)
					

We need to hit and release the brakes on physical distancing, again and again, until we safely get to immunity.




					www.nytimes.com
				




Meanwhile  








						Federal Support Ends For Coronavirus Testing Sites As Pandemic Peak Nears
					

As the coronavirus pandemic peak approaches, local officials say the federal government is ending support for COVID-19 community-based testing sites.




					www.npr.org
				




Looks like HHS got a lot of flack about this and just reversed the decision. This policy shifting is like riding down a country road with a drunken uncle at the wheel. 








						In Reversal, Federal Support For Coronavirus Testing Sites Continues
					

The Trump administration had planned to end federal support for 41 COVID-19 testing sites around the country. But after complaints from local officials, the government will continue funding.




					www.npr.org


----------



## Medic21

begreen said:


> Yes, that hit with several spikes over almost 3 yrs. The second spike in the fall of 1918 was very deadly.


This is why our current quarantine procedures need adjustment.  We need healthy people to gain an immunity to this to protect the at risk from that second deadly wave.


----------



## begreen

Anyone see this study? Looks like the Netherlands and US opted out of using the BCG vaccine, while most of Europe did use it.








						Coronavirus: More ‘striking’ evidence BCG vaccine might protect against Covid-19
					

Study shows countries with vaccination programmes have far fewer cases




					www.irishtimes.com
				












						How a 100-year-old vaccine for tuberculosis could help fight the novel coronavirus
					

As researchers scramble to find new drugs and vaccines for Covid-19, a vaccine that is more than a century old has piqued researchers' interests. The Bacillus Calmette-Guerin vaccine -- which was first developed to fight off tuberculosis -- is being studied in clinical trials around the world as...




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Sodbuster

Medic21 said:


> This is why our current quarantine procedures need adjustment.  We need healthy people to gain an immunity to this to protect the at risk from that second deadly wave.



There is no guarantee or evidence that people who have recovered or been exposed will gain immunity.


----------



## Medic21

Sodbuster said:


> There is no guarantee or evidence that people who have recovered or been exposed will gain immunity.


There is definitely research ongoing/more needed.  But, with previous Coronaviruses, SARS and MERS, there is proof that there is immunity after infection for a period.  There really is no reason to believe this one would be different from current research.  There have been few enough “reinfections” to believe they were probably relapses or not fully recovered.  

I do believe we will have a vaccine by end of summer.  There are multiple companies that are building off of SARS vaccine that became irrelevant before mass production.  Keep your fingers crossed that they will be approved and distributed in a timely manner.  That is the true “fix”.


----------



## SpaceBus

This isn't even a human virus, so if we all just stay isolated long enough we should be able to "starve" the virus.


----------



## Ashful

begreen said:


> 1918-1919


You are correct.  I had associated the massive breakout and attempted quarantine at Fort Bayard, which happened just as our first large class of troops there were preparing to ship off to WW2, with the beginning of the war in 1914.  Sometimes I forget how late we got into that war.  There was also a typhus resurgence outbreak in 1914, so I may have been combining those deep nuggets in my memory.  



Sodbuster said:


> There is no guarantee or evidence that people who have recovered or been exposed will gain immunity.


They’ve been requesting those with confirmed cases and recovery donate plasma, and there is a belief that these people do indeed have some immunity to the strain of Corona virus from which they have just recovered.   I think what’s being debated is how robust and enduring that immunity may be, as well as how many strains there may be in the general population across the world today.


----------



## Sodbuster

Medic21 said:


> There is definitely research ongoing/more needed.  But, with previous Coronaviruses, SARS and MERS, there is proof that there is immunity after infection for a period.  There really is no reason to believe this one would be different from current research.  There have been few enough “reinfections” to believe they were probably relapses or not fully recovered.
> 
> I do believe we will have a vaccine by end of summer.  There are multiple companies that are building off of SARS vaccine that became irrelevant before mass production.  Keep your fingers crossed that they will be approved and distributed in a timely manner.  That is the true “fix”.



I hope you are right, I was referencing these articles when replying.









						Do You Get Immunity After Recovering From A Case Of Coronavirus?
					

The hope is that a person who has recovered from COVID-19 would have some protection against reinfection in the future. Here's what researchers do — and don't — know.




					www.npr.org
				




I would be very cautious about getting a vaccine rushed to market for this reason, a condition referred to in the article as "disease enhancement" where the vaccinated person gets an even worse form of the disease, in this case SARS due to the vaccine. 









						Coronavirus vaccines: five key questions as trials begin
					

Some experts warn that accelerated testing will involve some risky trade-offs.




					www.nature.com


----------



## begreen

In spite of the news from Capitol Hill, testing is still not great in most areas including Seattle, and we have the UW Labs cranking out a lot of tests. Testing is critical to the tracking and containment of the virus, but we were caught with our pants down and supplies just aren't there. Add to this the fact that our testing methods are slow. This ends up with sparse coverage compared to what is necessary to get ahead of this beast, Testing must dramatically improve.








						Why Widespread Coronavirus Testing Isn’t Coming Anytime Soon
					

A critical shortage of swabs and other testing components is, in many cases, making it impossible for labs across the country to expand their capacity.




					www.newyorker.com


----------



## festerw

This is worth a watch. Covid19 deaths per country per week compared with other diseases and events.


----------



## SpaceBus

Wow, sobering video. I'm going to share that on a forum that doesn't believe it's a big deal.


----------



## johneh

If that does not put the fear of God into you nothing will


----------



## paulnlee

Sorry, Cary Huang??? Yup I'm a bigot.


----------



## bholler

paulnlee said:


> Sorry, Cary Huang??? Yup I'm a bigot.


And the person's name means what?


----------



## PaulOinMA

This made me laugh, tomorrow being Easter.  I was on the Worldometers web site and saw …

_April 10 (GMT)
33752 new cases and 2035 new deaths in the United States

NOTE: Puerto Rico retracted 1  death previously reported on April 9 [source]_


----------



## Sodbuster

paulnlee said:


> Sorry, Cary Huang??? Yup I'm a bigot.



What are you even referring to?


----------



## Sawset

The Strategic National Stockpile








						Why We’re Running Out of Masks
					

The United States’ secretive medical stockpile was prepped for a bombing, not a pandemic.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## Woody Stover

paulnlee said:


> I'm a bigot.


Lee is an Asian name. You need to go back where you came from.


----------



## tlc1976

PaulOinMA said:


> This made me laugh, tomorrow being Easter.  I was on the Worldometers web site and saw …
> 
> _April 10 (GMT)
> 33752 new cases and 2035 new deaths in the United States
> 
> NOTE: Puerto Rico retracted 1  death previously reported on April 9 [source]_



Good one. Can picture someone not quite dead, bolts upright in the morgue when they try to do an autopsy saying oh no you don’t.


----------



## Ashful

Woody Stover said:


> Lee is an Asian name. You need to go back where you came from.


lol... now, that was funny!


----------



## bholler

Ashful said:


> lol... now, that was funny!


I thought so as well


----------



## AlbergSteve

Woody Stover said:


> Lee is an Asian name. You need to go back where you came from.


Don't think he can, that cave has been closed for a long time.


----------



## MTY

Huang is a very common Chinese name.  Most Chinese students chose an English first name while in school to make interacting with Occidentals easier.


----------



## Woody Stover

AlbergSteve said:


> Don't think he can, that cave has been closed for a long time.


Ahh, so he's one of the stinkin' bats that's responsible for this mess?!!


----------



## begreen

This is a long read from a local genetic epidemiologist, Dr. Chris Carlson. The bottom line is they are working on many trials right now and maybe by August we will have some solutions for corraling this bug.

Dear friends,
Today is April 12.
The reaction from my local test audience to yesterday’s post suggests that I’m just not very good at communicating a hopeful message. My intent was to start from minimal assumptions of any new treatments and try to forecast the best path back to normal life. The suppression approach that I outlined assumed the use of existing testing technology (at a larger scale), the application of old school epidemiology (with some technological updates), and the success of existing approaches to developing a vaccine (which I think should be feasible for COVID).
Today, I’m going to add one new thing to this model: I’m going to assume that one of the ongoing clinical trials testing existing drugs for antiviral activity is partially successful. That is, let’s assume that a drug is identified that modestly slows the ability of the virus to replicate in an infected person’s lung tissue, halving the rate at which the virus can make more virus.
At this point pretty much everyone on the planet has been reminded of how exponential growth is a terrifying thing. But the spread of the disease from patient to patient is only one aspect of the disease that is exponential. Within an infected patient, the number of infected cells also grows exponentially, as each infected cell releases numerous new virions capable of infecting another cell. I’m not going to put a number on how many new virions are produced by each infected cell, because I have no idea what this number is. I’m also going to assume that it takes some time for the virus to take over the cellular machinery and start churning out copies of itself, but I’m not going to take a guess at this either, because I just don’t know. The important point is that when a person is first infected, only a handful of virions are present, and until the immune system catches onto the infection, the number of virions begins to grow exponentially into a viral army.
As an infected cell churns out virions, these can either go on to infect additional cells in the same host or be expelled from the infected host in snot, in order to go on and infect additional hosts. Eventually, when the immune system realizes that the body is under attack, the host can develop symptoms (fever, shortness of breath), but it is pretty darn likely that before symptoms, enough virions are already being shed into the host’s snot that they can infect additional people.
Now, the fact that a significant fraction of infections appears to be asymptomatic suggests that it is entirely possible for a fully functional immune system to fight off the infection. So what differentiates those who are asymptomatic from those with severe disease? Well, the first symptom (fever) generally indicates that your immune system has sensed an infection. Another common early symptom (loss of the sense of smell) might indicate that viral replication in the nasal passages has directly damaged the normal function of your olfactory system. Later symptoms (shortness of breath, the “broken glass” images in the lungs) indicate lung damage. The lung damage is probably a combination of two factors: (1) direct damage from viral replication and (2) collateral damage caused by your immune response to the virus. That is, during a major infection, your immune system will generally shoot first and ask questions later.
My apologies for going to such an over-used metaphor, but during a SARS-CoV-2 infection, your lungs are a battlefield where two armies are at war: an army of viral particles, and an army of white blood cells from your immune system. While the viral army is initially growing exponentially, your immune system has to bring in reinforcements. Because the viral army is growing by taking over your own cells, one of the functions of the immune system is to find the hijacked cells and kill them, so that the virus can’t make more virus. In order to achieve this, the immune response can be rather non-specific, wiping out uninfected bystanders on the battlefield. The combination of direct viral damage and collateral damage caused by your immune response to the virus causes tissue damage in a patient’s lungs. The more severe this damage, the worse the pneumonia, and the harder it is to breathe.
Now, why do some infected people have no symptoms at all, while others die of the disease? The age distribution of severe cases gives us a big clue here: the human immune system naturally senesces as we age. That is, as we get older, it gets harder to fight off infections, and latent infections that our immune system has controlled for decades can reactivate (like shingles). So it is reasonable to assume that the reason symptoms are generally so much milder in 20 year old patients than 80 year old patients is that the younger immune systems were generally able to stop viral replication earlier in the battle, thereby causing less damage to the battlefield (the lungs). That is, turning the tide of the battle earlier is likely to be key in reducing the severity of symptoms.
Let’s return to the rich variety of drug trials currently underway for the treatment of COVID-19. Many of these trials are obviously targeted at patients with the most severe symptoms because these are the patients who are dying. However, by the time that a patient is on a ventilator, the battle is mostly over, and the patient is dying of the lung damage that they already sustained.
So, what if a drug was identified with the ability to reduce the rate of viral replication by half? That is, what if we can find a drug that halves the rate at which the viral army grows? Such a drug would have fairly minimal value in late-stage patients, where the damage has already been (mostly) done, but could be hugely valuable if we could administer it to early-stage patients. The earlier, the better. That is, let’s assume that the viral army really is growing exponentially between infection and the day that symptoms develop, five days later.
If we could give the drug on the fourth day after infection, the viral army would be half as big when the immune response started.
If we could give the drug on the third day after infection, the viral army would be one quarter as big on day 5.
If we could give the drug on the second day after infection, the viral army would be one eighth as big.
If we could start the drug on the day after a patient is infected, the viral army would be one-sixteenth as big.
Hopefully, reducing the size of the viral army would allow the immune response to control the infection with less damage to the lungs.
Not only should early application of such an anti-viral help the patient, it should also reduce the amount of virus being shed into their snot while they are asymptomatic. That is, administering an anti-viral during early infection could actually make infected patients less infectious to others. This would be HUGE, because it would let us reduce the R for the virus pharmacologically, no social distancing required.
Let me say that again: early administration of a partially effective antiviral drug to infected people during their asymptomatic phase could not only help them avoid serious symptoms but might also reduce the possibility that they transmit the disease.
Now, the obvious extrapolation from this would be that if we find such an anti-viral, we should just give it to EVERYONE for two weeks. Unfortunately, there’s a dangerous assumption in this extrapolation: is the antiviral drug safe if given to uninfected people? Nearly all drugs have some side effects, and some of these can be severe. Not just in people who are medically at risk of severe side effects due to an underlying condition (known as “contraindications”), but also because drugs can interact with other drugs to cause serious adverse reactions, or even with foods. Read the warning labels on your medications, and you’ll find that some (including very common drugs like statins) should not be taken with grapefruit juice. So simply applying an anti-viral for COVID-19 to the entire population could be unacceptably risky, if it was known to have frequent contraindications or interacted with a commonly prescribed drug.
However, if we were able to combine the modestly effective antiviral I’ve hypothesized with a suppression strategy (test, trace, isolate, and then test some more), then we could give the anti-viral to the isolated contacts of a diagnosed case as early in the disease course as possible. That is, when an exposed contact went in for their test, they would receive a two week prescription for the antiviral med which would hopefully reduce the severity of disease in the infected contacts.
Another bonus is that medical staff working in a high-exposure environment might be able to take an effective antiviral prophylactically (as long as they had no known contraindications and are not taking any interacting drugs), giving them the very best possible chances of fighting off a SAR-CoV-2 infection in the early stages.
How likely is it that we will find a modestly effective anti-viral? There’s no way to truly forecast this, but a lot of trials for a number of different drugs are underway. Existing antivirals in (or beginning) trials include Favipiravir (4 studies, ref 1), lopinavir (23 trials, ref 4), remdesivir (10 trials, ref 5), tenofovir (1 study, ref 6) and Oseltamivir (Tamiflu, 7 studies, ref 7). All the drugs ending in “vir” are existing antivirals. I didn’t even try to summarize the dozens of other existing drugs that are in trials where they _could_ have an antiviral effect, like Hydroxychloroquine (68 trials, ref 2).
Early administration of hyperimmune plasma (ref 3) or convalescent plasma (15 trials, ref 8) might even serve the same purpose as modestly effective antiviral treatments.
Anyway, out of all the therapeutic interventions being tested, a modestly effective antiviral intervention, administered as early as possible, is my favorite scenario that might let us accelerate how quickly a suppression model could get us back to something that approximates “normal”. Possibly even before a vaccine is developed.
Please note that the most effective deployment of an antiviral drug REQUIRES rapid contact tracing of diagnosed cases. It’s not an either/or choice: without knowing who has been exposed, and rapidly getting them onto the antiviral medication, there won’t be nearly as much benefit in terms of reduced disease severity.
In terms of timing, the clinical trials for these potential antivirals need to run their course, so even if one of the trials pans out, I doubt that an antiviral drug could be broadly deployed against SARS-CoV-2 much before August.
Dr. Christopher Carlson


----------



## peakbagger

Keep in mind that during the gulf war the government deployed some specialized shots and medicines to deal with diseases local to the area. Some of them had significant side effects and claimed long term health impacts. Speeding up the process increases the risk.


----------



## begreen

peakbagger said:


> Keep in mind that during the gulf war the government deployed some specialized shots and medicines to deal with diseases local to the area. Some of them had significant side effects and claimed long term health impacts. Speeding up the process increases the risk.


Yes, Dr. Carlson warns about this:
_Now, the obvious extrapolation from this would be that if we find such an anti-viral, we should just give it to EVERYONE for two weeks. Unfortunately, there’s a dangerous assumption in this extrapolation: is the antiviral drug safe if given to uninfected people? Nearly all drugs have some side effects, and some of these can be severe. Not just in people who are medically at risk of severe side effects due to an underlying condition (known as “contraindications”), but also because drugs can interact with other drugs to cause serious adverse reactions, or even with foods. Read the warning labels on your medications, and you’ll find that some (including very common drugs like statins) should not be taken with grapefruit juice. So simply applying an anti-viral for COVID-19 to the entire population could be unacceptably risky, if it was known to have frequent contraindications or interacted with a commonly prescribed drug._


----------



## PaulOinMA

begreen said:


> ... The bottom line is they are working on many trials right now and maybe by August we will have some solutions for corraling this bug …



I receive a CenterWatch newsletter.  Nice summary today ...





__





						COVID-19 Update
					

COVID-19 Drug Research Roundup




					www.centerwatch.com


----------



## Medic21

peakbagger said:


> Keep in mind that during the gulf war the government deployed some specialized shots and medicines to deal with diseases local to the area. Some of them had significant side effects and claimed long term health impacts. Speeding up the process increases the risk.


Keep in mind most studies of this somewhat link Gulf War Syndrome to the fact multiple vaccines were given at one time.  It would have been relatively safe to give one or maybe two but, by giving them all at once it caused the way the body’s immune system responded to drastically change, or that’s the thought.


----------



## CaptSpiff

begreen said:


> [quoting the Doc] _....., but also because drugs can interact with other drugs to cause serious adverse reactions, or even with foods. Read the warning labels on your medications, and you’ll find that some (including very common drugs like statins) should not be taken with grapefruit juice. So simply applying an anti-viral for COVID-19 to the entire population could be unacceptably risky, if it was known to have frequent contraindications or interacted with a commonly prescribed drug._



And that's why vaccines are usually developed over an 18-36 month period. The 12-18 month promises are really a hope.
And the experts suggesting a vaccine by Sept should be forced to take part in every "test/trial" between now and then.
OH,... wait,.... where did they all go ?????


----------



## begreen

CaptSpiff said:


> And that's why vaccines are usually developed over an 18-36 month period. The 12-18 month promises are really a hope.
> And the experts suggesting a vaccine by Sept should be forced to take part in every "test/trial" between now and then.
> OH,... wait,.... where did they all go ?????


I think the shorter term hopes are for treatments, not vaccines. Yesterday there was an interesting interview with Dr. Robert Gallo about using the polio vaccine for boosting immunity. This will be going to trials soon. It's not a cure, but might buy some time while a vaccine is being developed. The hypothesis is that it kicks in the innate immune system. Some of this is based on a Russian study in the 1970s. 








						Can an Oral Polio Vaccine Help Stop the Coronavirus?
					

Dr. Robert Gallo, who helped identify HIV in the 1980's, is leading an initiative to use the oral polio vaccine for short-term coronavirus treatment. He believes it could provide a couple of months of immunity, buying time for anyone infected to develop the antibodies to fight it. It still...



					www.pbs.org


----------



## MTY

Idaho's daily increase of cases has dropped dramatically.  I do not believe the drop is anything but a change in the way the number is determined.  Now they are reporting confirmed cases and mentioning that there are also a number of probable cases.  
If someone decides to try a new anti viral drug on confirmed cases, I think they are going to run into a road block with HIPPA.  Even if a patient gives up names of contacts, what happens when a contact asks who reported the contact. I imagine if a case is listed as probable, it will be even more difficult to convince the patient to try the drug and allow the pursuit of possible contacts.


----------



## SpaceBus

MTY said:


> Idaho's daily increase of cases has dropped dramatically.  I do not believe the drop is anything but a change in the way the number is determined.  Now they are reporting confirmed cases and mentioning that there are also a number of probable cases.
> If someone decides to try a new anti viral drug on confirmed cases, I think they are going to run into a road block with HIPPA.  Even if a patient gives up names of contacts, what happens when a contact asks who reported the contact. I imagine if a case is listed as probable, it will be even more difficult to convince the patient to try the drug and allow the pursuit of possible contacts.


Most HIPPA rules are out right now. I've noticed the same dips and irregularities with Maine reporting. I'm convinced it's because there is minimal in state testing and some days the numbers look lower because it takes a few days to get results back from out of state. We only had 30 new cases a few days ago and then yesterday it jumped to 60. Even then line graphs have dips every few days.


----------



## Highbeam

Weekend reporting seems slow with apparent surges on Monday. Both new deaths and new case reporting have problems. New deaths can be rigged by assuming the people died from the virus and new cases are effected by number of tests administered. 

In both cases the amount of testing greatly effects the bottom line so it’s a bit “fake”. Like watching one of those digital horse races at a stadium during intermission.


----------



## MTY

In response to HIPPA rules being discarded, what the government takes it rarely gives back.  Furthermore, it often builds on the taking to justify further takings in the future. I have no idea what will be taken next based on the ability to take privacy based on the same justifications used to violate HIPPA.  
 However, here is one scenario I believe will happen.  Now this may irritate some here, but logically VA benefits are welfare.  If the government can disperse or restrict them based on income, having earned VA benefits is no longer a valid argument for receiving them based on the fact that not all who earned them are able to receive them.  I look for the government to means test SS and deny it to those it deems unworthy in the same manner it has done to veterans.  
The world has gone crazy over Covid-19.  Suddenly it is appropriate to go into a gas station, a bank, or a liquor store while wearing a mask.


----------



## SpaceBus

MTY said:


> In response to HIPPA rules being discarded, what the government takes it rarely gives back.  Furthermore, it often builds on the taking to justify further takings in the future. I have no idea what will be taken next based on the ability to take privacy based on the same justifications used to violate HIPPA.
> However, here is one scenario I believe will happen.  Now this may irritate some here, but logically VA benefits are welfare.  If the government can disperse or restrict them based on income, having earned VA benefits is no longer a valid argument for receiving them based on the fact that not all who earned them are able to receive them.  I look for the government to means test SS and deny it to those it deems unworthy in the same manner it has done to veterans.
> The world has gone crazy over Covid-19.  Suddenly it is appropriate to go into a gas station, a bank, or a liquor store while wearing a mask.


I agree, the loss of privacy seems draconian for me, but perhaps it's necessary, which makes it all the more terrifying. There is no easy answer for this, as there is no easy answer for any social issue. This is a real mess.


----------



## Medic21

People it’s HIPAA not HIPPA.  

Please enlighten me to what has changed.  I work in healthcare and nothing has changed that I know of.


----------



## SpaceBus

Medic21 said:


> People it’s HIPAA not HIPPA.
> 
> Please enlighten me to what has changed.  I work in healthcare and nothing has changed that I know of.





			https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/ocr-bulletin-3-28-20.pdf
		



"In order to ensure that healthcare providers can serve patients, including those who cannot or should not leave their homes during this emergency, OCR announced on March 17, 2020, that it will exercise its enforcement discretion and will not impose penalties for HIPAA violations against health care providers that in good faith provide telehealth using non-public facing audio or video communication products, such as FaceTime or Skype, during the COVID-19 nationwide public health emergency. This exercise of enforcement discretion applies regardless of whether the telehealth service is related to the diagnosis and treatment of health conditions related to COVID-19. OCR also issued guidance in the form of frequently asked questions in support of the good faith rendering of telehealth services. "


----------



## CaptSpiff

MTY said:


> In response to HIPPA rules being discarded, what the government takes it rarely gives back.  Furthermore, it often builds on the taking to justify further takings in the future. I have no idea what will be taken next based on the ability to take privacy based on the same justifications used to violate HIPPA.



Maybe private property rights, like taking property to set up medical care facilities (tents), or staging essential medical supplies for anticipated need (storage). Not too far from forcing medical support staff (they gotta sleep somewhere) into private housing to meet an ever growing public need.

Didn't a little revolution, way back before cell phones, start when some "well meaning" red coated peace-keepers were "moved" into private homes???


----------



## begreen

CaptSpiff said:


> Maybe private property rights, like taking property to set up medical care facilities (tents), or staging essential medical supplies for anticipated need (storage). Not too far from forcing medical support staff (they gotta sleep somewhere) into private housing to meet an ever growing public need.
> 
> Didn't a little revolution, way back before cell phones, start when some "well meaning" red coated peace-keepers were "moved" into private homes???


I hear the concerns but this is another topic. Please start a new thread and keep this thread focused on the medical side of the virus.


----------



## Medic21

SpaceBus said:


> https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/ocr-bulletin-3-28-20.pdf
> 
> 
> 
> 
> "In order to ensure that healthcare providers can serve patients, including those who cannot or should not leave their homes during this emergency, OCR announced on March 17, 2020, that it will exercise its enforcement discretion and will not impose penalties for HIPAA violations against health care providers that in good faith provide telehealth using non-public facing audio or video communication products, such as FaceTime or Skype, during the COVID-19 nationwide public health emergency. This exercise of enforcement discretion applies regardless of whether the telehealth service is related to the diagnosis and treatment of health conditions related to COVID-19. OCR also issued guidance in the form of frequently asked questions in support of the good faith rendering of telehealth services. "


All that is doing is allowing non secure communications.  If, and it’s a large if, a breech occurs doing this it will change it to an incidental type breach.  Kinda like overhearing an RN and MD  discuss a pt case or when I give a name and date of birth with a report over a radio in a critical pt.  It also has the “in good faith” guidance, it did not make it a free for all.  

HIPAA still applies fully and all of you PHI will be protected.  You have to understand HIPAA before you can comment on it.  If the billing person leaves you face sheet full of PHI laying around there will not be any less penalties than before.


----------



## Medic21




----------



## ABMax24

Looks like some of the skepticism was well deserved, China added another 1290 deaths to their count today. Brings the death rate there to 6%.









						China denies cover-up as Wuhan coronavirus deaths revised up 50%
					

Revision to total comes after weeks of scepticism over officially reported figures




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Seasoned Oak

Coronavirus antibody testing finds Bay Area infections may be 85 times higher than reported: researchers
					

The researchers claim their findings suggest that between 48,000 and 81,000 people in Santa Clara County had been infected with COVID-19 by April 1, while the total number of confirmed cases was less than 1,000.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## mcdougy

I think all countries will be caught skewing numbers in some sort of way. Not agreeing or proud, but governments lie non stop.


----------



## begreen

ABMax24 said:


> Looks like some of the skepticism was well deserved, China added another 1290 deaths to their count today. Brings the death rate there to 6%.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China denies cover-up as Wuhan coronavirus deaths revised up 50%
> 
> 
> Revision to total comes after weeks of scepticism over officially reported figures
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com


I suspect there will be revisions in mortality numbers coming from many countries as the reported caseload drops to manageable levels. There are so many that have died in nursing homes and stay at homes that never were tested, but almost certainly died of Covid-19. The lack of testing in the US makes this issue particularly acute.


----------



## Medic21

Seasoned Oak said:


> Coronavirus antibody testing finds Bay Area infections may be 85 times higher than reported: researchers
> 
> 
> The researchers claim their findings suggest that between 48,000 and 81,000 people in Santa Clara County had been infected with COVID-19 by April 1, while the total number of confirmed cases was less than 1,000.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.foxnews.com


Will be very interested in following this.  If it holds true to the 85x that makes the death rate .0008% right now.  Much lower than season flu or a lot of other things.  Will also decrease the hospitalization rate below flu.


----------



## begreen

With the paucity of testing data in the US accuracy may be futile. It's a very small testing sample and skewed by the mentioned need for Facebook and a car. We may have to rely on other countries for more comprehensive testing data to make these kinds of calls.


----------



## Medic21

begreen said:


> With the paucity of testing data in the US accuracy may be futile. It's a very small testing sample and skewed by the mentioned need for Facebook and a car. We may have to rely on other countries for more comprehensive testing data to make these kinds of calls.


All they were doing is testing for antibodies, there actual number appeared to be 50x and they are using math to determine the 85x.  My guess is based on a lower turnout than they wanted.  Either way it’s something to pay attention to.  I can find flaws in any study that is done right now on either side.  This is a first of its kind so it needs to be watched.


----------



## peakbagger

NH got hit along the border with Mass but many of the other counties are traceable  to specific contacts. The state got caught with a lack of testing but now that they have access to more testiing the state is going after the riskiest senior and disabled living facilities and even the homeless population.  The number of detected cases no doubt will go up but at least they are starting to make a dent in the testing backlog.  Since Mass has it worse, unless we close down the highways we are not going to be able open up much as the folks from Mass will head up here to get around the restrictions in Mass.


----------



## tlc1976

The numbers Michigan posted maybe a week ago showed  about a 95% death rate. As in deaths vs recovered which is both outcomes of finished cases. Right now it’s about a 80% death rate. But the thing is they have only gotta be testing those who are the worst off, so of course most of them aren’t going to make it. We have drive thru testing sites but only if you qualify. We will never know the true numbers until testing is available for everyone.


----------



## ABMax24

begreen said:


> I suspect there will be revisions in mortality numbers coming from many countries as the reported caseload drops to manageable levels. There are so many that have died in nursing homes and stay at homes that never were tested, but almost certainly died of Covid-19. The lack of testing in the US makes this issue particularly acute.



I agree mistakes will be made, but missing 1 in 3 Covid-19 deaths is pretty substantial.


----------



## Ashful

More and more indicators in the news that US and other world officials are either suspecting or at least debating whether this actually was released from the Wuhan infectious disease labs, after all.  But before you go all conspiratorial, the discussion is based on the likelihood of this being an accidental release due to insufficient safety practices, not any intentional act.

I believe this has been suspected by some, all along, and was behind the current administration’s desire to quickly label this as having come from China.  The financial repercussions for China, if this is proven (or at least widely believed) could be quite significant, given the history of past warnings and discussions over lack of proper safety in this lab.  









						Coronavirus: Is there any evidence for lab release theory?
					

BBC News examines allegations that the coronavirus was accidentally released from a lab.



					www.bbc.com
				




I came across this today, from a local paper in 1918.  History doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme, right?


----------



## begreen

Medic21 said:


> All they were doing is testing for antibodies, there actual number appeared to be 50x and they are using math to determine the 85x.  My guess is based on a lower turnout than they wanted.  Either way it’s something to pay attention to.  I can find flaws in any study that is done right now on either side.  This is a first of its kind so it needs to be watched.


Have you been following reports on the mortality rate of black people that have contracted the virus? It is way higher.








						Racial toll of virus grows even starker as more data emerges
					

As a clearer picture emerges of COVID-19’s decidedly deadly toll on black Americans, leaders are demanding a reckoning of the systemic policies they say have made many African Americans far more vulnerable to the virus, including inequity in access to health care and economic opportunity...




					apnews.com


----------



## begreen

Ashful said:


> I came across this today, from a local paper in 1918.  History doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme, right?
> 
> View attachment 259424


There is a neat project that has turned clippings from the period of the 1918 Spanish Flu into audio files. It was a very similar time when one listens in the context of human responses and concerns of that period. 








						'We Haven't Learned From History': 'Radio Influenza' Is A Warning From 1918
					

Computerized voices read newspaper stories from the 1918 flu pandemic in this haunting audio project. "I wanted it to sound like a broadcast from a dystopian future," says artist Jordan Baseman.




					www.npr.org


----------



## PaulOinMA

I'm a Ph.D. physical-organic chemist.  Decided to get my copy of "Basic & Clinical Pharmacology" to read the chapter Antiviral Agents.  It begins "viruses are obligate intracellular parasites ..."  O.k., this is going to be a long read.


----------



## begreen

After that prepared to get lost in understanding our immune systems which we are still learning a lot about. It's a deep dive.


----------



## SidecarFlip

begreen said:


> Have you been following reports on the mortality rate of black people that have contracted the virus? It is way higher.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Racial toll of virus grows even starker as more data emerges
> 
> 
> As a clearer picture emerges of COVID-19’s decidedly deadly toll on black Americans, leaders are demanding a reckoning of the systemic policies they say have made many African Americans far more vulnerable to the virus, including inequity in access to health care and economic opportunity...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> apnews.com




In as much as I'm 1/4 African American, I have closely been following it.  I believe it's because quite a few African Americans have underlying health issue and a large segment of them (like in the metro Detroit area) are poor to begin with and afraid of doctors in general.  Not afraid of medical treatment but afraid of the costs that it incurs.  Even though the administration has stated many times that care will be of no cost to the patient, there is still that underlying fear.

Been away for a while (over a month) not because I've been sick, but my laptop suffered a brain fart but it's been repaired and I'm back.

I sincerely hope everyone is well and still with us and being cautious with the virus.  My wife and I are basically hermits and if we do go out to say the grocery, we wear masks and use hand sanitizer.

The metro Detroit area was hit hard and we live south of there about 70 miles.  Not much in the way of Covid 19 around here, about 6 confirmed cases locally.  Even so, we, I especially am being very careful.  If I contracted it, it would be almost a certain death for me, being a survivor, my immune system is compromised.

Still roasting corn, thought that would be finished last week, but we had another cold snap with 5" of snow.  Winter just won't let go here.

Stay safe and be safe and stay alive.


----------



## Medic21

PaulOinMA said:


> I'm a Ph.D. physical-organic chemist.  Decided to get my copy of "Basic & Clinical Pharmacology" to read the chapter Antiviral Agents.  It begins "viruses are obligate intracellular parasites ..."  O.k., this is going to be a long read.


Too many can’t get past that a virus is not alive.


----------



## Medic21

SidecarFlip said:


> In as much as I'm 1/4 African American, I have closely been following it.  I believe it's because quite a few African Americans have underlying health issue and a large segment of them (like in the metro Detroit area) are poor to begin with and afraid of doctors in general.  Not afraid of medical treatment but afraid of the costs that it incurs.  Even though the administration has stated many times that care will be of no cost to the patient, there is still that underlying fear.
> 
> Been away for a while (over a month) not because I've been sick, but my laptop suffered a brain fart but it's been repaired and I'm back.
> 
> I sincerely hope everyone is well and still with us and being cautious with the virus.  My wife and I are basically hermits and if we do go out to say the grocery, we wear masks and use hand sanitizer.
> 
> The metro Detroit area was hit hard and we live south of there about 70 miles.  Not much in the way of Covid 19 around here, about 6 confirmed cases locally.  Even so, we, I especially am being very careful.  If I contracted it, it would be almost a certain death for me, being a survivor, my immune system is compromised.
> 
> Still roasting corn, thought that would be finished last week, but we had another cold snap with 5" of snow.  Winter just won't let go here.
> 
> Stay safe and be safe and stay alive.


That was my first thought also, it’s more a socioeconomic Issue than a race issue.  There is also a high rate in the Hispanic and “other” ethnicity categories in our state.  That lines up to the poverty lines pretty closely.


----------



## SpaceBus

Medic21 said:


> Too many can’t get past that a virus is not alive.


By the traditional definition viruses are labeled as "non living," but my opinion on the matter is not popular.


----------



## PaulOinMA

Well, I found out something I already knew.  I don't understand this stuff, and glad I majored in chemistry.


----------



## PaulOinMA

Medic21 said:


> … Too many can’t get past that a virus is not alive …



I was at a company when the mad cow scare of the 1990s hit.  Microbiology and my department (regulatory affairs) both reported to the same v.p.  (also pharm-tox, statistics, analytical, and the Technology Center computer department).

I remember him explaining prions to us.  

Edit … Rather, trying to explain prions to us.


----------



## PaulOinMA

Think I looked like Victor, the RCA dog for the prion discussion.


----------



## SidecarFlip

I have my PHD in farming...

I have an interesting racial mix, 1/4 American Indian, 1/4 African American, 1/4 Pennsylvania Dutch and 1/4 German.  I'm dark skinned, tan to a very deep brown, almost black in the summer am basically hairless but bald and have prominent cheek bones.  I'm all set, all bases covered.  There was never any racial inequality in my family, so I married a Jewish gal from New York.

In my opinion besides the fear of having to pay for medical expenses and being poor (like most of the citizens of Detroit are (as well as Chicago, cannot speak for NYC, the African Americans have a common underlying heath issue, cycle cell anemia.  Very common in African Americans.  Lupus too.


----------



## begreen

Medic21 said:


> Too many can’t get past that a virus is not alive.


Including some still calling it a germ.


----------



## PaulOinMA

SidecarFlip said:


> ... I have my PHD in farming...



I always worked hard and very long hours.  But nowhere near the hours or as hard as a farmer.


----------



## Medic21

PaulOinMA said:


> Well, I found out something I already knew.  I don't understand this stuff, and glad I majored in chemistry.



I get disinterested right about the rNa stage of the lecture lol.  

I’ll stick with acute care and dumping the pt at an ER.  They pay the guy with the MD to come up with treatments past me worrying whether or not you’ll live to the hospital lol.


----------



## SidecarFlip

Medic21 said:


> I get disinterested right about the rNa stage of the lecture lol.
> 
> I’ll stick with acute care and dumping the pt at an ER.  They pay the guy with the MD to come up with treatments past me worrying whether or not you’ll live to the hospital lol.



Great attitude.  Guess that is why you guys are referred to as a 'meat wagon'.....


----------



## Medic21

SidecarFlip said:


> Great attitude.  Guess that is why you guys are referred to as a 'meat wagon'.....


Lol, There are three types of EMS runs. One why are you bugging me. Two I can at least make you comfortable. Three if you want to live there’s nothing I can do for you but get you some where.  

That third type is a very low percentage of the runs we do. And most of those are heart attacks.  A couple times a year I actually get to use skills that can save someone’s life but the majority of the time we inflict our skills onto the patient to make us feel better about what we do. And that’s EMS summed up.


----------



## SidecarFlip

I like it.  Inflict your skills.... I take it you are saying your rescues become your Guinea pigs...... Comforting thought.  Think if I was in that situation, I'd drive myself.


----------



## Medic21

SidecarFlip said:


> I like it.  Inflict your skills.... I take it you are saying your rescues become your Guinea pigs...... Comforting thought.  Think if I was in that situation, I'd drive myself.


There is really a fine line that is not taught enough in Paramedic School.  In Nursing they are taught a lot more pathophys and have a better understanding of how the body works.  Some of us have learned that over the years, my wife would throw me out of the house if I didn’t put in the effort since she is both a RN and Paramedic, that sometimes Nothing or less is better for a patient outcome.

I have been around for a long time and understand different things because I wanted to learn and took advanced A&P class for my BS in psychology.   We carry drugs that when used properly are very beneficial to pt outcomes but, that same drug can be harmful even when used “correctly”. Lasix is a big one. I see a lot of Medics treat with meds like lasix without having labs in possibly septic or even dehydrated pts because they have chf with pulmonary edema. That’s a really bad idea.

Just like we are learning that intubating a COVID pt is actually detrimental to their out come vs high flow oxygen. Yet, Paramedics are taught to look at a few numbers that show oxygenation and CO2 output and control the airway based on that. The problem with that is not taking into account that our bodies know better how to compensate for problems than we do. That’s how these pts end up on multiple pressors to keep a blood pressure and it’s these drugs that will play a direct roll in kidneys shutting down and further complications days later. The very sick and critical pts are why we exist but, these are the very patients we struggle with because we are reactionary without a big picture to guide decisions.

that’s why I say inflict our skills.  That’s why I also think pushing advanced level anatomy and physiology classes is very important to the advancement of our fields.  I also push for the ability to do serum lactate testing to get a better picture on how sick our pts are.  Point of care labs are available and would be a huge improvement to pt care also.  It’s all about money though.


----------



## PaulOinMA

Nephew was EMS; now a fireman.  He commented once that 300-pound people always seem to be four flights up stairs.


----------



## Medic21

PaulOinMA said:


> Nephew was EMS; now a fireman.  He commented once that 300-pound people always seem to be four flights up stairs.


One of many  rules of three.

3am
300lbs
3 flights of stairs no elevator

That goes with the following

3 cardiac arrests in a shift
3 bad traumas in a row
3 long distance transfers in a riw
3 easy shifts followed by 3 shifts from hell

it’s science really...


----------



## SpaceBus

Medic21 said:


> One of many  rules of three.
> 
> 3am
> 300lbs
> 3 flights of stairs no elevator
> 
> That goes with the following
> 
> 3 cardiac arrests in a shift
> 3 bad traumas in a row
> 3 long distance transfers in a riw
> 3 easy shifts followed by 3 shifts from hell
> 
> it’s science really...


My wife is an LPN and swears in the rule of three


----------



## Ludlow

peakbagger said:


> The current administration has been steadily cutting public heath funding so the CDC and had a war on science in general





Funding for the CDC has increased under the current administration actually.


----------



## begreen

Ludlow said:


> Funding for the CDC has increased under the current administration actually.


It's a work in progress. After this session, the administration reversed course. How this actually ends up is TBD.








						Trump budget chief holds firm on CDC cuts amid virus outbreak
					

Russ Vought, the acting director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, on Tuesday doubled down on proposed cuts to health services and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), despite the coronavirus outbreak.




					thehill.com
				












						Did President Trump Cut the CDC Budget?
					

As the new coronavirus spread in February 2020, so did concerns about the United States' readiness to respond to the outbreak.




					www.snopes.com
				




*What's True*
The Trump administration's proposed 2021 budget includes cuts to the CDC's activities related to chronic disease.
*What's False*
Congress hasn't approved the budget, so CDC funding in 2021 remains unclear.


----------



## Ludlow

We are discussing budgets for current and past years under President Trump are we not? While it is true that Trump consistently starts a negotiation from a position of strength, the budgets for the CDC have ultimately increased as passed by congress and signed By President Trump. Funding for 2021 is not relevant in this discussion.


----------



## SpaceBus

Ludlow said:


> We are discussing budgets for current and past years under President Trump are we not? While it is true that Trump consistently starts a negotiation from a position of strength, the budgets for the CDC have ultimately increased as passed by congress and signed By President Trump. Funding for 2021 is not relevant in this discussion.
> View attachment 259508


Yeah, but what does it look like compared to Bush or Clinton?


----------



## Ludlow

SpaceBus said:


> Yeah, but what does it look like compared to Bush or Clinton?


2016 would have been Obama on that chart.


----------



## kennyp2339

Medic21 said:


> One of many  rules of three.
> 
> 3am
> 300lbs
> 3 flights of stairs no elevator
> 
> That goes with the following
> 
> 3 cardiac arrests in a shift
> 3 bad traumas in a row
> 3 long distance transfers in a riw
> 3 easy shifts followed by 3 shifts from hell
> 
> it’s science really...





SpaceBus said:


> My wife is an LPN and swears in the rule of three


I swear by the rule of three also, at the FD, when busy we'll get 3 "real calls" in a row followed by a break, 3 house fires in a row in a given 3 week period, so on and so on. And when its quiet for 3 straight days, be worried, cause the real calls are about to start up.


----------



## SpaceBus

Ludlow said:


> 2016 would have been Obama on that chart.


OK?


----------



## Ludlow

SpaceBus said:


> OK?



When I get a chance I will go back and research CDC funding from the 90's .


----------



## begreen

Ludlow said:


> When I get a chance I will go back and research CDC funding from the 90's .


Don't bother. Correction noted, though budgets are made by Congress, not presidents. This is not on the Covid-19 topic. Save future chatter for an economics or political forum.


----------



## Ludlow

begreen said:


> Don't bother. Correction noted, though budgets are made by Congress, not presidents. This is not on the Covid-19 topic. Save future chatter for an economics or political forum.



Censorship noted. Will do. Thanks


----------



## Ludlow

More on topic. .....Covid-19 may linger in the testicles of men (obviously). This is crazy!


----------



## Medic21

Ludlow said:


> More on topic. .....Covid-19 may linger in the testicles of men (obviously). This is crazy!


I know a lot of managers And politicians  that have nothing to worry about then...


----------



## Sawset

.


Ludlow said:


> More on topic. .....Covid-19 may linger in the testicles of men (obviously). This is crazy!


Along with others like Measles, Ebola and Zika.  
A veritable smorgasbord.


----------



## PaulOinMA

Nan is working from home behind me.  She's on hold with the bank.

I really hope there is a special place in hell for the people that pick out the on-hold music.

I just said that to Nan.

"That they have to listen to it all the time?"


----------



## johneh

My wife is on the front line of a bank 
They were on a 2-week self-quarantine
now back to work on the front line 
I worry for her every day . I am one of those that are 
in a vulnerable position. So thank god for telephone banking 
This keeps people out of the bank


----------



## bholler

Ludlow said:


> Censorship noted. Will do. Thanks


No censorship at all just keeping this thread on topic.


----------



## blades

bholler said:


> No censorship at all just keeping this thread on topic.


----------



## bholler

And that is absolutely on topic.  It a shame our focus got shifted to multiple pointless and unwinnable wars and this got put on the back burner.  Only to be almost completely cut from the budget eventually.  If we had followed through things could have played out differently.

Not sure why I was quoted in that post though


----------



## Ludlow

I rebut a statement of a mod with facts and then get "ya buts" about things from 25 years ago. I was sarcastic about researching that.  Wasn't going to.


----------



## Ludlow

bholler said:


> Only to be almost completely cut from the budget eventually.  If we had followed through things could have played out differently



That is false. I'm sure my reply is off topic.


----------



## bholler

Ludlow said:


> That is false. I'm sure my reply is off topic.


What is false?


----------



## WinterinWI

bholler said:


> No censorship at all just keeping this thread on topic.



Since when is the CDC off limits in this thread?



begreen said:


> We need the CDC firing on all cylinders right now.





begreen said:


> CDC people didn't even know about the 2016 govt. guidelines for pandemic response.





begreen said:


> The CDC has been under the gun for the past few years.





begreen said:


> The CDC has been seriously compromised so the states are having to pick up the slack.


----------



## Ashful

Meh... getting a little warm in here, guys?

We all have our political differences, and the current situation is certainly tied to them in many ways, but there's no reason we can't discuss one without bickering about the other.

Good find on the bush vid, @blades.


----------



## PaulOinMA

Ashful said:


> ...  but there's no reason we can't discuss one without bickering about the other ...@blades.



You should see us folks on the OBX forum, OBXconnection.  Lots of nasty comments for a while.  Some of us just gave up.

I pushed bact to the "virus was developed by the Chinese military and was released intentionally to kill a portion of their population."

I posted a link to the recent Nature article on the virus.

Now  I have been branded a China-lover by someone over there.


----------



## begreen

WinterinWI said:


> Since when is the CDC off limits in this thread?


CDC is not off-limits, no one said it was. But a page of discussion for a simple rebuttal was enough.


----------



## Ludlow

bholler said:


> What is false?





bholler said:


> What is false?



Was on my phone then, and didnt realize you were talking about the video? I missed that. I thought you were saying the CDC  went unfunded.  Bush sure called it.


----------



## bholler

Ludlow said:


> Was on my phone then, and didnt realize you were talking about the video? I missed that. I thought you were saying the CDC  went unfunded.  Bush sure called it.


Ok then.  Just a misunderstanding no big deal.


----------



## Ludlow

My apologies. No wonder my post made no sense to you. I guess it boils down to economics. The gov can buy and warehouse 20,000 ventilators and millions of PPE. If they arent used in x number of years they will be junk. How would they handle that? Throw everything away every couple of years? It is a huge undertaking and the more years that go by the less interest it garners. I bet something is done in the years ahead. For awhile anyway.


----------



## bholler

Ludlow said:


> My apologies. No wonder my post made no sense to you. I guess it boils down to economics. The gov can buy and warehouse 20,000 ventilators and millions of PPE. If they arent used in x number of years they will be junk. How would they handle that? Throw everything away every couple of years? It is a huge undertaking and the more years that go by the less interest it garners. I bet something is done in the years ahead. For awhile anyway.


Yes but the whole program was dropped.  I am sure there still would have been problems even if we had followed through.  But the response could have been much faster.


----------



## semipro

Rather than looking to assign blame, I think we need to be looking to the next potential pandemic and what can be done so that we don't have to shut down like this again.

A global pandemic quick response and assessment team.  I suppose that's the WHO though I don't know.
Domestic stockpiling of response supplies like PPE
Rebuild domestic production of critical supplies like test kits.   Provide government incentives if needed.
Laws to prevent short term hoarding.  We need to counter greed for the greater good somehow.
A federal response team that is responsible for instituting measures for controlling related disease spreads, including shutdowns.  It doesn't seem to me that this effort should be led by the WH.  This team should include CDC types but also economists, law enforcement, state leadership, etc.  This team should also assure readiness by instituting the measures above.
Expansion of these types of measures to other threats to increase our society's resilience.  It seems way too fragile to me.
I realize this is overly simplistic and likely naive so I'm hoping smarter, more informed people figure this out.

I'm also looking for silver linings but I'm having a tough time with that.
I am enjoying the particularly crisp clean air and skies that seem bluer though.


----------



## Ludlow

We need to move our supply chains back to the US for one. We learned a lesson there. With the global nature of things a highly infectious disease can spread world wide in a matter of days. Transparency from all nations and strong surveillance is a must. It is spooky that you could go to a supermarket and be picking out celery right beside someone who was in China the day before. We are more vulnerable than we realize.


----------



## MTY

Yes, everyone you pass by could be the Grim Reaper whether they have been to China or not.  The person you were next to buying celery may not have been to China, but might have been standing next to someone who had while he was getting the milk.


----------



## begreen

Ludlow said:


> We need to move our supply chains back to the US for one. We learned a lesson there. With the global nature of things a highly infectious disease can spread world wide in a matter of days. Transparency from all nations and strong surveillance is a must. It is spooky that you could go to a supermarket and be picking out celery right beside someone who was in China the day before. We are more vulnerable than we realize.


Covid 19 is spooky because it has so many asymptomatic carriers. The person next to you that is infected could be your neighbor who has never left the state. The next morphing pandemic virus may be a variant of MERS and have nothing to do with China. Sure hope not.


----------



## Medic21

Responding to a global pandemic in the risk management world is a high risk, low frequency situation.  Those are almost impossible to plan for. Yes we can assure PPE is available to an extent.  N95 masks and a lot of other respirators have a shelf life.  Everyone wants to blast the government for not having masks but, most of what they had was expired to begin with.  

There is no way to prepare for testing when you have no idea when It’s a novel virus as this case. Had it been a known virus we would have been ok. Trump already did what was most important by removing restrictions on private companies to make tests. We have actually done an amazing job since that happened in producing tests. We have serum lactate testing that’s been proven to be accurate for 10 years waiting to this day on FDA approval. It could be a game changer for transport decisions in the field by paramedics in sepsis,trauma, and a whole host of other medical problems. Red tape is holding it back.

Over all we have responded well to this as actual facts came out. I will forever say that shutting down everything without a period of giving people the correct information, not the media hysteria that they got, and allowing them to take correct steps first was dead wrong at every level of government. To this day there is still more misinformation and fear than actual facts. For every expert with an opinion there is an equally credentialed expert that has an opposite opinion and instead of presenting everything on the merits they warranted we went with and continue to go with one side.

The chance of another global pandemic on this scale in our lifetimes is almost zero based on history.

I truly believe from what I have seen this will be looked back on when all information is out as overreacting on a scale that has never been seen in history.  That will be worldwide.  All we have done is slow down what nature is going to accomplish in the end.  And to what cost overall?


----------



## begreen

Medic21 said:


> I truly believe from what I have seen this will be looked back on when all information is out as overreacting on a scale that has never been seen in history. That will be worldwide. All we have done is slow down what nature is going to accomplish in the end. And to what cost overall?


So just kiss grandma goodbye and get on with life.


----------



## Medic21

begreen said:


> So just kiss grandma goodbye and get on with life.


If you want to ignore what I said about giving people information on what they needed to do first, yes.  That’s the same bullshit fear tactics people want to throw around.  You cannot back up you statement with one bit of actual evidence to make it true.  That makes you part of the problem with how this was dealt with.


----------



## bholler

Medic21 said:


> Responding to a global pandemic in the risk management world is a high risk, low frequency situation.  Those are almost impossible to plan for. Yes we can assure PPE is available to an extent.  N95 masks and a lot of other respirators have a shelf life.  Everyone wants to blast the government for not having masks but, most of what they had was expired to begin with.
> 
> There is no way to prepare for testing when you have no idea when It’s a novel virus as this case. Had it been a known virus we would have been ok. Trump already did what was most important by removing restrictions on private companies to make tests. We have actually done an amazing job since that happened in producing tests. We have serum lactate testing that’s been proven to be accurate for 10 years waiting to this day on FDA approval. It could be a game changer for transport decisions in the field by paramedics in sepsis,trauma, and a whole host of other medical problems. Red tape is holding it back.
> 
> Over all we have responded well to this as actual facts came out. I will forever say that shutting down everything without a period of giving people the correct information, not the media hysteria that they got, and allowing them to take correct steps first was dead wrong at every level of government. To this day there is still more misinformation and fear than actual facts. For every expert with an opinion there is an equally credentialed expert that has an opposite opinion and instead of presenting everything on the merits they warranted we went with and continue to go with one side.
> 
> The chance of another global pandemic on this scale in our lifetimes is almost zero based on history.
> 
> I truly believe from what I have seen this will be looked back on when all information is out as overreacting on a scale that has never been seen in history.  That will be worldwide.  All we have done is slow down what nature is going to accomplish in the end.  And to what cost overall?


I agree there is absolutely no way we could be completely prepared for a pandemic.  Because clearly we would not know far enough in advance exactly what would be needed.  But putting scientists and medical professionals in the leadership instead of the VP and Jared kushner might have been a good idea.    Keeping the pandemic task force well funded and manned probably would have helped.  Not down playing it for so long would have been a good idea.


----------



## Medic21

bholler said:


> I agree there is absolutely no way we could be completely prepared for a pandemic.  Because clearly we would not know far enough in advance exactly what would be needed.  But putting scientists and medical professionals in the leadership instead of the VP and Jared kushner might have been a good idea.    Keeping the pandemic task force well funded and manned probably would have helped.  Not down playing it for so long would have been a good idea.


And as the situation unfolded they really did use the know facts, at the time of making the decision, they had.  You can’t look back and say this decision should have been made two months ago on any information that came to light after that date.  We are not fortune tellers and the decisions made could have ruined the country in the long run.  Frankly speaking, is destroying the economy over a few thousand lives worth it?  Decision that had to be made had to be made without emotions.  

Yes, the people put in place were a joke.  Politics were involved where it shouldnt have been.


----------



## bholler

Medic21 said:


> And as the situation unfolded they really did use the know facts, at the time of making the decision, they had.  You can’t look back and say this decision should have been made two months ago on any information that came to light after that date.  We are not fortune tellers and the decisions made could have ruined the country in the long run.  Frankly speaking, is destroying the economy over a few thousand lives worth it?  Decision that had to be made had to be made without emotions.
> 
> Yes, the people put in place were a joke.  Politics were involved where it shouldnt have been.


You didn't have to be a fortune teller to look at what was going on in other countries.


----------



## Medic21

bholler said:


> You didn't have to be a fortune teller to look at what was going on in other countries.


And we acted earlier based on what we knew than a lot of other countries.  We have faired better than most also.  We have a low death rate compared to a lot of them.  The stay at home orders are the responsibility of the state.  Indiana issued theirs with 120 statewide cases.  That’s pretty proactive.  New York waited way too long.  

The national emergency was declared with less than 400 cases in the country.  400 out of 300 million people.  That opened the door for money To the states to prepare.  I don’t know what you think could have been done sooner.


----------



## bholler

Medic21 said:


> And we acted earlier based on what we knew than a lot of other countries.  We have faired better than most also.  We have a low death rate compared to a lot of them.  The stay at home orders are the responsibility of the state.  Indiana issued theirs with 120 statewide cases.  That’s pretty proactive.  New York waited way too long.
> 
> The national emergency was declared with less than 400 cases in the country.  400 out of 300 million people.  That opened the door for money To the states to prepare.  I don’t know what you think could have been done sooner.


Less than 400 confirmed cases when there was very little testing available here.     And wait now you are saying our response is good?  In the other thread you were saying it is rediculous.


----------



## Medic21

bholler said:


> Less than 400 confirmed cases when there was very little testing available here.     And wait now you are saying our response is good?  In the other thread you were saying it is rediculous.


I’m saying our response wasn’t delayed as a lot have implied.  

No I do not think we have had the overall correct response to this. Don’t worry, I’m enough of a man that if I’m proven wrong in the end I’ll admit it.


----------



## Ashful

Ludlow said:


> The gov can buy and warehouse 20,000 ventilators and millions of PPE. If they arent used in x number of years they will be junk. How would they handle that?


Simple, FIFO.  The government buys respirators with a 3-year expiration, and resells them 6-12 months later, with 24-30 months left on the expiration date.  Keep a continuosly-rolling stock, just as simple as anyone who deals with any surge-demand product.


semipro said:


> Rather than looking to assign blame, I think we need to be looking to the next potential pandemic and what can be done so that we don't have to shut down like this again.


Amen, brother.  But I’d caution against your suggestion of reliance on any international organization, like the WHO, with interests that are not completely aligned with our own.  International cooperation is absolutely necessary, but we should be putting the bulk of our dollars into bolstering the US capabilities, in cooperation with any international effort.


Ludlow said:


> We need to move our supply chains back to the US for one. We learned a lesson there.


Here as well, I think we need both.  Cheap Chineese labor has allowed us all to live a lifestyle that we could never achieve otherwise, so it‘s hypocritical to malign it.  But I agree that some critical fraction of nearly all products must be manufactured in the USA.  Setting and determining how to coerce or enforce those thresholds should be a major focus of Congress to come.


begreen said:


> So just kiss grandma goodbye and get on with life.


Yeah, seriously.  But I only personally know two people who have passed from this virus so far.  They were 46 and 34, and both in apparently good health.


----------



## Ludlow

begreen said:


> So just kiss grandma goodbye and get on with life.




Obama said it.


----------



## Medic21

Ludlow said:


> Obama said it.



That’s a pretty big stretch there...


----------



## Ludlow

Medic21 said:


> That’s a pretty big stretch there...



Not really. Where government run healthcare exists, people were denied treatment for covid based on age. That's a pretty big exact same thing.


----------



## Medic21

Ludlow said:


> Not really. Where government run healthcare exists, people were denied treatment for covid based on age. That's a pretty big exact same thing.


I think what you meant to say was,“ patients were triaged based on condition and likely outcome”.  Because, that is what happened in places like Italy when they were overwhelmed.  In this kind of situation it’s a black and white numbers and odds decision.


----------



## bholler

Medic21 said:


> That’s a pretty big stretch there...


Yes a really big stretch.  He is talking about cutting down on waste through unnecessary procedures and drugs that won't help.  That is a good thing.


----------



## bholler

Ludlow said:


> Not really. Where government run healthcare exists, people were denied treatment for covid based on age. That's a pretty big exact same thing.


That had absolutely nothing to do with private vs public healthcare.  It had to do with to much patient load.  The same would have happened here in similar circumstances


----------



## Medic21

bholler said:


> Yes a really big stretch.  He is talking about cutting down on waste through unnecessary procedures and drugs that won't help.  That is a good thing.


There does come a time a doctor needs to sit down and talk about options with family. We had to do with my grandma a couple years ago. That’s a huge difference between that and claiming that somebody’s making a decision for them.


----------



## bholler

Medic21 said:


> There does come a time a doctor needs to sit down and talk about options with family. We had to do with my grandma a couple years ago. That’s a huge difference between that and claiming that somebody’s making a decision for them.


Agreed


----------



## Ludlow

I'm being censored again.


----------



## begreen

That video conveniently and venially snips out a segment without the full context or dialog. Here is the full context and conversation that points out that these are some of the toughest choices we all have to make. I know we were in this situation with our parents. It is not easy for doctors or patients. A lot followed that video snippet, including the conversation and decision that Sturm had to make based on her mother's condition.









						TRANSCRIPT: 'Questions for the President: Prescription for America'
					






					abcnews.go.com


----------



## bholler

begreen said:


> That video conveniently and venially snips out a segment without the full context or dialog. Here is the full context and conversation that points out that these are some of the toughest choices we all have to make. I know we were in this situation with our parents. It is not easy for doctors or patients. A lot followed that video snippet, including the conversation and decision that Sturm had to make based on her mother's condition.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> TRANSCRIPT: 'Questions for the President: Prescription for America'
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> abcnews.go.com


Even the little bit shown simply says we need to cut out care at end of life that is un needed.  Not saying just let old people die for no reason


----------



## johneh

I will way in. In the end, it comes down to Quality, not Quantity
My Father at 89 had a DNR. There were many things they could
 have done to extend his life but there would have been no quality 
just pain. So for the last week we as family and his doctor chose to
 just keep him comfortable and without pain. It was the least we 
could do for him. I was at his side when he died and I miss his wisdom dearly 
As I said before it is QUALITY, not QUANTITY that counts


----------



## Ludlow

bholler said:


> That had absolutely nothing to do with private vs public healthcare.  It had to do with to much patient load.  The same would have happened here in similar circumstances



So Trump has done a pretty good job on this compared to other countries? would you agree?



bholler said:


> I agree there is absolutely no way we could be completely prepared for a pandemic.  Because clearly we would not know far enough in advance exactly what would be needed.  But putting scientists and medical professionals in the leadership instead of the VP and Jared kushner might have been a good idea.



Im sorry. Remind me how many Presidents Fauci has served under again? Has Trump followed his advice? What does Fauci say about testing ? What was Fauci saying about this pandemic in February again? I credit you for thinking Trump is a God but he does rely on experts. Even the experts didnt see this coming. Trump stopped travel anyway. Why dont you give him credit for anything?



Medic21 said:


> I think what you meant to say was,“ patients were triaged based on condition and likely outcome”.  Because, that is what happened in places like Italy when they were overwhelmed.  In this kind of situation it’s a black and white numbers and odds decision.



In Italy, care was denied based solely on age, it was that bad.


----------



## bholler

Ludlow said:


> So Trump has done a pretty good job on this compared to other countries? would you agree?


Him personally no not really.  Our govt as a whole.  Yes better than some worse than others



Ludlow said:


> Im sorry. Remind me how many Presidents Fauci has served under again? Has Trump followed his advice? What does Fauci say about testing ? What was Fauci saying about this pandemic in February again? I credit you for thinking Trump is a God but he does rely on experts. Even the experts didnt see this coming. Trump stopped travel anyway. Why dont you give him credit for anything?


He really doesn't listen to Fauci very well at all no. 





Ludlow said:


> Italy, care was denied based solely on age, it was that bad.


Well not just age.  Their decision was based upon survivability determinations and the same thing would have happened here if we were faced with the same patient load for our recourses.  It has nothing to do with govt run healthcare.


----------



## Ludlow

The US has now tested more people than the entire world combined.


----------



## SpaceBus

Ludlow said:


> The US has now tested more people than the entire world combined.


Yes, it's also one of the largest nations by land mass and population. There are just more people living here than most other places in the world.


----------



## bholler

Ludlow said:


> The US has now tested more people than the entire world combined.


That may be true I didn't check.  But Italy has a higher percapita test ratio


----------



## Ludlow

SpaceBus said:


> Yes, it's also one of the largest nations by land mass and population. There are just more people living here than most other places in the world.



The WHO test would never pass FDA standards. It does not have a high accuracy rate.


----------



## Ludlow

bholler said:


> That may be true I didn't check.  But Italy has a higher percapita test ratio


Because they had more sick people to test. Thank the travel ban for sparing us that. 
Remember that Fauci himself said that mass testing of a population is worthless.


----------



## bholler

Ludlow said:


> The WHO test would never pass FDA standards. It does not have a high accuracy rate.


And what tests have passed fda testing?


----------



## bholler

Ludlow said:


> Because they had more sick people to test. Thank the travel ban for sparing us that.
> Remember that Fauci himself said that mass testing of a population is worthless.


The travel ban came after the virus was here already making it pretty pointless.  And there were enough loopholes it really didn't do much.


----------



## Ludlow

What do you think this kind of accounting does to death rates? The true number of deaths in the US could potentially be a fraction of what is claimed. Number of deaths translates into money. It also translates into mass hysteria and political propaganda. How can the CCP virus be a contributing factor if the person tested negative?


----------



## bholler

Ludlow said:


> What do you think this kind of accounting does to death rates? The true number of deaths in the US could potentially be a fraction of what is claimed. Number of deaths translates into money. It also translates into mass hysteria and political propaganda. How can the CCP virus be a contributing factor if the person tested negative?
> 
> View attachment 259558


First it doesn't say they tested negative.  Just that they didn't test positive.  Most of those were probably not tested.  In addition people with a severely compromised immune system can die from the virus without developing the antibodies our tests detect.


----------



## Ludlow

bholler said:


> First it doesn't say they tested negative.  Just that they didn't test positive.  Most of those were probably not tested.  In addition people with a severely compromised immune system can die from the virus without developing the antibodies our tests detect.



Wrong. We dont even have antibody testing employed. We test RNA.


----------



## bholler

Ludlow said:


> Wrong. We dont even have antibody testing employed. We test RNA.


Really???









						Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: Serological Tests
					

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: Serological Tests




					www.fda.gov
				




I guess the fda is wrong


----------



## Ludlow

And currently in PA they are testing sick individuals with positive result in only 1 out of 10.


----------



## bholler

Ludlow said:


> And currently in PA they are testing sick individuals with positive result in only 1 out of 10.


Ok and?


----------



## Ludlow

bholler said:


> Really???
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: Serological Tests
> 
> 
> Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: Serological Tests
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.fda.gov
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I guess the CDC is wrong



They are really only testing medical professionals and small general populations at this point.


----------



## Ludlow

bholler said:


> Ok and?


So how can they use the word "Probably"? More like odds are against.


----------



## Ludlow

You really dont know what you are talking about. Serological tests arent used for patient admission. Its RNA


----------



## bholler

Ludlow said:


> You really dont know what you are talking about. Serological tests arent used for patient admission. Its RNA


Yes many tests are RNA.  But they have only been tested by the manufacturer not the fda so honestly the accuracy is completely unknown.  And yes there are antibody tests being used as well.


----------



## bholler

Ludlow said:


> So how can they use the word "Probably"? More like odds are against.


Who used the word probably and where?


----------



## Ludlow

bholler said:


> Yes many tests are RNA.  But they have only been tested by the manufacturer not the fda so honestly the accuracy is completely unknown.  And yes there are antibody tests being used as well.


Antibody testing isnt used on patients for diagnosis. It simply isnt.  Please read your own attachment.


----------



## bholler

Ludlow said:


> Antibody testing isnt used on patients for diagnosis. It simply isnt.  Please read your own attachment.


It is but you are correct in that RNA testing is by far the most common.  I was wrong


----------



## begreen

Hope for hydroxychloroquine appears to be on the decline.








						Study finds no benefit, higher death rate in patients taking hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19 | CNN
					

Coronavirus patients taking hydroxychloroquine, a treatment touted by President Trump, were no less likely to need mechanical ventilation and had higher deaths rates compared to those who did not take the drug, according to a study of hundreds of patients at US Veterans Health Administration...




					www.cnn.com


----------



## mcdougy

Union says staff at 2nd Alberta meat plant scared of COVID-19, not showing up to work  | Globalnews.ca
					

The JBS plant in Brooks, Alta., had recorded 67 cases as of Monday. The union says it's only a matter of time until it shuts down.




					globalnews.ca
				




This is concerning, the Cargill plant supplies alot of beef to both markets in N.A.
The food panic may start shortly.









						Cargill closes High River beef plant | The Western Producer
					

The Cargill meat processing plant in High River, Alta., which slaughters 40 percent of the cattle in Canada, announced temporary closure effective April




					www.producer.com
				




Here's the story on Cargill


----------



## begreen

Sobering stats from New Jersey. 40% of coronavirus deaths are in long-term care facilities. That's over 1,900 deaths in just a month.


----------



## PaulOinMA

Medic21 said:


> …  people that blindly listen to him if he touted blood letting as a treatment the jackasses would come out in droves and scream that people need to listen to the leader and start bleeding people.






Device​leeches, medicinal​Definition​The device is a medicinal leech (hirudo medicinalis) belonging to the annelida worm classification.  The animal is a bloodsucking aquatic animal living in fresh water.  The device should be indicated as: "an adjunct to the graft tissue healing when problems of venous congestion may delay healing, or to overcome the problem of venous congestion by creating prolonged localized bleeding."​Review Panel​General & Plastic Surgery​Product Code​NRN​Premarket Review​                            Infection Control and Plastic Surgery Devices                      (DHT4B)
Infection Control and Plastic Surgery Devices (DHT4B)​Unclassified Reason​Pre-Amendment​Submission Type​510(k)​Device Class​Unclassified​Total Product Life Cycle (TPLC)​TPLC Product Code Report​GMP Exempt?​No​Summary Malfunction
Reporting​Ineligible​Implanted Device?​No​Life-Sustain/Support Device?​No​*Third Party Review*​Not Third Party Eligible​


----------



## SpaceBus

begreen said:


> Hope for hydroxychloroquine appears to be on the decline.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Study finds no benefit, higher death rate in patients taking hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19 | CNN
> 
> 
> Coronavirus patients taking hydroxychloroquine, a treatment touted by President Trump, were no less likely to need mechanical ventilation and had higher deaths rates compared to those who did not take the drug, according to a study of hundreds of patients at US Veterans Health Administration...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com


There was a thread on another forum I frequent about this treatment and how it actually works and all the evidence to the contrary was propaganda, as evidenced by the Dr. Zelenko article that was floating around a while back. I wanted to share this CNN article about the treatment since someone even referenced the Military investigating the uses of Chloroquines. Apparently the thread was deleted, which is no surprise given how heated the discussion was getting. I'm not sure what the reason, maybe just to hope something worked, but folks really wanted this to work. The side effects of these drugs are just horrible, so I'm glad this is not the answer.


----------



## Medic21

PaulOinMA said:


> Device​leeches, medicinal​Definition​The device is a medicinal leech (hirudo medicinalis) belonging to the annelida worm classification.  The animal is a bloodsucking aquatic animal living in fresh water.  The device should be indicated as: "an adjunct to the graft tissue healing when problems of venous congestion may delay healing, or to overcome the problem of venous congestion by creating prolonged localized bleeding."​Review Panel​General & Plastic Surgery​Product Code​NRN​Premarket Review​                            Infection Control and Plastic Surgery Devices                      (DHT4B)
> Infection Control and Plastic Surgery Devices (DHT4B)​Unclassified Reason​Pre-Amendment​Submission Type​510(k)​Device Class​Unclassified​Total Product Life Cycle (TPLC)​TPLC Product Code Report​GMP Exempt?​No​Summary Malfunction
> Reporting​Ineligible​Implanted Device?​No​Life-Sustain/Support Device?​No​*Third Party Review*​Not Third Party Eligible​




This ain’t the place for politics.  I support the president but, there are way too many people that come up formulated and evidence based plans, on both sides of the house, that he doesn’t need to weigh in on medical care.   Isn’t that the whole reason of a surgeon general???

back to regularly scheduled programming.  Anyone followed Remdesivir studies?  It’s looking promising right now.  Like any good medical study it takes time.


----------



## Medic21

Part of the problem coming up with a treatment plan outside of the typical supportive care of a virus is there is really a very small number of pts that would be sick enough to qualify for a large study without having a large number of systems working together.  If all you have is 20 pts in one facility you can’t get enough of a sampling to come to any conclusive results.  

Remdesivir is being trialed all across the country in more of a coordinated process.


----------



## blades

B Holler likely hit the quote instead of the reply-  on the Bush vid,  Thought it was interesting considering it was 15 years ago and nothing was on the horizon at the time.  Oh, and the CDC cuts and such that are being attributed to Trump are actually left overs from Obama era.  Convenient shortsightedness on the part of many.


----------



## mcdougy

Joe Bauer appears to be more and more possible. 10 years ahead of his time?  Politics appear to be making it hard for much needed focus. This crisis of a highly contagious virus appears to be nowhere close to being resolved, from either the medical or economic side. Why fight/defend/attack ?


----------



## Medic21

blades said:


> B Holler likely hit the quote instead of the reply-  on the Bush vid,  Thought it was interesting considering it was 15 years ago and nothing was on the horizon at the time.  Oh, and the CDC cuts and such that are being attributed to Trump are actually left overs from Obama era.  Convenient shortsightedness on the part of many.


Does it matter?

 Blaming this or that person for what happened in the past is like the fire department looking for the cause of the fire while the barn burns down instead of facing the the problem at hand and putting out the fire.


----------



## Ludlow

SpaceBus said:


> The side effects of these drugs are just horrible, so I'm glad this is not the answer.



Actually, people living or visiting Africa take this drug daily for years at a time. It is one of the safest drugs in comparison to others that people take routinely everyday. My FIL was on the verge of sudden cardiac death from being prescribed potassium. Read that again....POTASSIUM! They said his levels were so high he could drop dead any minute.
Anyone taking any multitude of common drugs is subject to sudden and severe side effects. I see commercials everyday for some prep pill for the  aids. The side effects may as well be that you suddenly explode into bloody bits it reads that bad if you listen to the commercial.

I am positive that Trump didnt come up with the Hydroxy idea on his own. It was being put forth by expert people trying to find hopeful therapies. Remember that the results are not all in yet.


----------



## Medic21

Ludlow said:


> Actually, people living or visiting Africa take this drug daily for years at a time. It is one of the safest drugs in comparison to others that people take routinely everyday. My FIL was on the verge of sudden cardiac death from being prescribed potassium. Read that again....POTASSIUM! They said his levels were so high he could drop dead any minute.
> Anyone taking any multitude of common drugs is subject to sudden and severe side effects. I see commercials everyday for some prep pill for the  aids. The side effects may as well be that you suddenly explode into bloody bits it reads that bad if you listen to the commercial.
> 
> I am positive that Trump didnt come up with the Hydroxy idea on his own. It was being put forth by expert people trying to find hopeful therapies. Remember that the results are not all in yet.


One 300mg tablet a week is Malaria Prophylaxis, and the treatment dose was 500-600 a day.  Big difference.  You can use 100mg-200mg a day with Doxy for the same results.  We had way less side effects with the doxy on deployment and most were switched to that within 2 months. Our pilots always used doxy, they would have been grounded for 48hrs after every dose due to the side effects.  

If anyone wants to look at what’s really being looked at do a search on COVID-19 and Cytokine Storm Syndrome. I had one of these pts Last night. It was unreal, even the ER doc said he’s never seen anything like it ever before. There is a lot of research being done to isolate which of the cytokines are responsible for the storm to develop therapies that will individually block them, right now high dose steroids are the best option. With these very sick pts, thank god there are very few, the pneumonia progresses from a fairly clear chest X-ray to an almost opaque chest x ray in a couple of hours. They are fairly confident this is from the autoimmune response from a cytokine storm. The pts burn through drugs at an unbelievably high rate, paralytics and Sedation drugs are effective for less than than half the normal duration.

The treatment, as far as coming up with supportive care, lays with immunologists and rheumatologists as this is their area of specialty. What I have learned from a couple long distance transfers, each over 2 hours, was they present like septic pts and they are very hard to manage. BPs all over the spectrum and normal treatments do not become to stabilize them. Last nights was by far one of the sickest patients I have seen in 25 years. My recommendation Now is to utilize Mobile Intensive Care units due to the availability an RN, RT and better medications than we utilize. It’s difficult to manage airway demands, meds, etc with one set of hands as fast as the pts condition changes.  I didn’t know which way was up when we got to the receiving hospital.   

While I will say my eyes are opened now to how sick these pts can actually get, don’t jump my ass because my feelings on getting back to normal have not changed lol.  Took 6 weeks for our hospital to see one of these patients.


----------



## Ludlow

Medic21 said:


> One 300mg tablet a week is Malaria Prophylaxis, and the treatment dose was 500-600 a day.  Big difference.  You can use 100mg-200mg a day with Doxy for the same results.  We had way less side effects with the doxy on deployment and most were switched to that within 2 months. Our pilots always used doxy, they would have been grounded for 48hrs after every dose due to the side effects.
> 
> If anyone wants to look at what’s really being looked at do a search on COVID-19 and Cytokine Storm Syndrome. I had one of these pts Last night. It was unreal, even the ER doc said he’s never seen anything like it ever before. There is a lot of research being done to isolate which of the cytokines are responsible for the storm to develop therapies that will individually block them, right now high dose steroids are the best option. With these very sick pts, thank god there are very few, the pneumonia progresses from a fairly clear chest X-ray to an almost opaque chest x ray in a couple of hours. They are fairly confident this is from the autoimmune response from a cytokine storm. The pts burn through drugs at an unbelievably high rate, paralytics and Sedation drugs are effective for less than than half the normal duration.
> 
> The treatment, as far as coming up with supportive care, lays with immunologists and rheumatologists as this is their area of specialty. What I have learned from a couple long distance transfers, each over 2 hours, was they present like septic pts and they are very hard to manage. BPs all over the spectrum and normal treatments do not become to stabilize them. Last nights was by far one of the sickest patients I have seen in 25 years. My recommendation Now is to utilize Mobile Intensive Care units due to the availability an RN, RT and better medications than we utilize. It’s difficult to manage airway demands, meds, etc with one set of hands as fast as the pts condition changes.  I didn’t know which way was up when we got to the receiving hospital.
> 
> While I will say my eyes are opened now to how sick these pts can actually get, don’t jump my ass because my feelings on getting back to normal have not changed lol.  Took 6 weeks for our hospital to see one of these patients.




Be clear. There is chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine.  A friend takes 500mg a day of Hydroxychloroquine  for Lupus. Every day. day in day out. Is nearly 70 years old. No side effects. as a matter of fact, taken at 500 mg a day the side effects are extremely rare. You are most likely talking about chloroquine, which isnt the formulation being investigated.


----------



## Ludlow

_" HCQ is recommended for most individuals with lupus, whether mild, moderate, or severe, as well as during pregnancy and while breastfeeding. Given the drug’s many and varied beneficial effects and its excellent long-standing safety profile, most rheumatologists believe that hydroxychloroquine should be taken by people with lupus throughout their lifetime. Annual examinations with a qualified retina specialist are strongly encouraged, however. "_

Sounds scary.


----------



## PaulOinMA

Here's the approved labeling (package insert) for Plaquenil (hydroxychloroquine sulfate tablets).  Dosage and Administration is that the end.  Physicians are not bound by the approved labeling in this country, however.



			https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/label/2019/009768Orig1s051lbl.pdf


----------



## Medic21

PaulOinMA said:


> Here's the approved labeling (package insert) for Plaquenil (hydroxychloroquine sulfate tablets).  Dosage and Administration is that the end.  Physicians are not bound by the approved labeling in this country, however.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/label/2019/009768Orig1s051lbl.pdf


Not bound but, they do leave it out there swinging on the chopping block if they are wrong.


----------



## begreen

Medic21 said:


> back to regularly scheduled programming.  Anyone followed Remdesivir studies?  It’s looking promising right now.  Like any good medical study it takes time.


I started following this in early February when I heard they were having some success with it in trials in China. After i read up on it I bought Gilead stock the next day.


----------



## begreen

Interesting and informative graphics of how the virus is progressing and declining around the world in locked-down areas.








						Coronavirus tracker: the latest figures as countries fight the Covid-19 resurgence | Free to read
					

The FT analyses the scale of outbreaks and tracks the vaccine rollouts around the world




					www.ft.com


----------



## PaulOinMA

I was just wondering when you were going to wander in here again and clean us up.  By now, you have to think of us as a group of second-graders that can't do as they are told.


----------



## Medic21

PaulOinMA said:


> I was just wondering when you were going to wander in here again and clean us up.  By now, you have to think of us as a group of second-graders that can't do as they are told.


Having a 9 year old son I will agree 100% with this statement.


----------



## begreen

Not exactly fun. It does take away from doing what I like here on Hearth.com - helping people stay safe while learning burning.


----------



## Ludlow

PaulOinMA said:


> I was just wondering when you were going to wander in here again and clean us up.  By now, you have to think of us as a group of second-graders that can't do as they are told.



The mods are people too. I hope!
They say their share. Its all good. Its what people do.


----------



## bholler

blades said:


> B Holler likely hit the quote instead of the reply-  on the Bush vid,  Thought it was interesting considering it was 15 years ago and nothing was on the horizon at the time.  Oh, and the CDC cuts and such that are being attributed to Trump are actually left overs from Obama era.  Convenient shortsightedness on the part of many.


Yes some of the cuts were made under Obama and some under Trump.  I never attributed it to anyone


----------



## Ludlow

Ludlow OUT.


----------



## Ashful

What a shame...


----------



## paulnlee

Here in my county we have three old folk homes. Last it was published, 36 deaths, 25 in  the old folks home


----------



## SpaceBus

Ludlow said:


> Actually, people living or visiting Africa take this drug daily for years at a time. It is one of the safest drugs in comparison to others that people take routinely everyday. My FIL was on the verge of sudden cardiac death from being prescribed potassium. Read that again....POTASSIUM! They said his levels were so high he could drop dead any minute.
> Anyone taking any multitude of common drugs is subject to sudden and severe side effects. I see commercials everyday for some prep pill for the  aids. The side effects may as well be that you suddenly explode into bloody bits it reads that bad if you listen to the commercial.
> 
> I am positive that Trump didnt come up with the Hydroxy idea on his own. It was being put forth by expert people trying to find hopeful therapies. Remember that the results are not all in yet.


Dude, it gives you horrible nightmares, chloroquines are not pleasant or to be taken lightly. It's perfectly safe to be tazed or maced, but it's not pleasant.


----------



## CaptSpiff

Ludlow said:


> I am positive that Trump didn't come up with the Hydroxy [sic] idea on his own. It was being put forth by expert people trying to find hopeful therapies. Remember that the results are not all in yet.


I seem to recall the first successful results by the French, followed by some public communication from a French official to a British official. Memory is faint.


----------



## begreen

CaptSpiff said:


> I seem to recall the first successful results by the French, followed by some public communication from a French official to a British official. Memory is faint.


Not a French official, a French doctor who may have been seeking notoriety.


----------



## begreen

Looking back, this disease may be responsible for more many more deaths than have been accounted for around the planet.








						The Pandemic’s Hidden Toll: Half a Million Deaths (Published 2020)
					

Far more people died in 2020 during the pandemic than have been officially reported, a review of mortality data in 35 countries shows.



					www.nytimes.com
				












						2 Californians died of coronavirus weeks before previously known 1st US death | CNN
					

New autopsy results show coronavirus killed two Californians in early and mid-February -- before the previously understood first US death from the virus. This may change the understanding of how early the virus was spreading in the country, health experts say.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## SpaceBus

begreen said:


> Looking back, this disease may be responsible for more many more deaths than have been accounted for around the planet.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Pandemic’s Hidden Toll: Half a Million Deaths (Published 2020)
> 
> 
> Far more people died in 2020 during the pandemic than have been officially reported, a review of mortality data in 35 countries shows.
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 2 Californians died of coronavirus weeks before previously known 1st US death | CNN
> 
> 
> New autopsy results show coronavirus killed two Californians in early and mid-February -- before the previously understood first US death from the virus. This may change the understanding of how early the virus was spreading in the country, health experts say.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com


I have always been assuming that the number of deaths related to Covid 19 to be much higher than the reported (known) numbers. My county is only reported to have two cases, but there must be dozens of folks who don't know they have it. Finally store owners and other services are doing no contact rules for their businesses.


----------



## begreen

Add another vector. Seems that like SARS that SARS Cov-2 can be caught by and transmitted by felines.








						2 pet cats in New York test positive for COVID-19
					

U.S. authorities say that while it appears some animals can get the virus from people, there’s no indication the animals are transmitting it to human beings.




					www.pbs.org


----------



## CaptSpiff

begreen said:


> Add another vector. Seems that like SARS that SARS Cov-2 can be caught by and transmitted by felines.


Dogs have been saying that for years!


----------



## Sawset

?


----------



## mcdougy

Can you relate?


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

mcdougy said:


> Can you relate?



Finally 1 funny post out of 1385. It's about time.


----------



## johneh

Is this for real


----------



## PaulOinMA

Yes.  I saw it yesterday afternoon.

She was discussed on a car web site I frequent.  Someone replied that her husband was mayor 1999 - 2011, and she'e been mayor since then.  They believe that they own Las Vegas at this point.









						Oscar Goodman - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				












						Carolyn Goodman - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




She really doesn't come across as the brightest bulb in the chandelier.


----------



## Medic21

SpaceBus said:


> I have always been assuming that the number of deaths related to Covid 19 to be much higher than the reported (known) numbers. My county is only reported to have two cases, but there must be dozens of folks who don't know they have it. Finally store owners and other services are doing no contact rules for their businesses.


And, this is the whole problem looking at any numbers.  Common sense should tell you that if only 1% or 2% of a population is tested and roughly 40% are known to be asymptomatic carriers, no reason to even be tested, the actual case numbers will be exponentially higher.  Also with the elderly dying that have no reason to be tested the death rates are probably nowhere accurate.  

County where I work has a meat packing plant.  138 positive cases since Tuesday and 2100 will be tested today and tomorrow.  We will have an explosion in case numbers first of the week.  The key to remember is the majority will never seek medical care.


----------



## SpaceBus

Medic21 said:


> And, this is the whole problem looking at any numbers.  Common sense should tell you that if only 1% or 2% of a population is tested and roughly 40% are known to be asymptomatic carriers, no reason to even be tested, the actual case numbers will be exponentially higher.  Also with the elderly dying that have no reason to be tested the death rates are probably nowhere accurate.
> 
> County where I work has a meat packing plant.  138 positive cases since Tuesday and 2100 will be tested today and tomorrow.  We will have an explosion in case numbers first of the week.  The key to remember is the majority will never seek medical care.


I get it that most people won't die from this, or even become critical. However, I don't want to be the person that gets this and does become critical or even a mild case resulting in lifelong lung damage. Don't let the politicians and media misrepresent the data to make this seem like no big deal. In just a few months Covid 19 has killed 45,000 Americans and counting. We are barely even into this pandemic and the virus might as well spread by eye contact. The stay at home order is working, but for how long? In my area we see folks driving to the homes of friends and relatives, which is exactly how this virus will spread. I just hope the farmers and employees of the stores that provide us with groceries don't get it and have to stop working. 

I think we will look back on this whole thing and find it all extremely foolish, but not because we overreacted.


----------



## Medic21

SpaceBus said:


> I get it that most people won't die from this, or even become critical. However, I don't want to be the person that gets this and does become critical or even a mild case resulting in lifelong lung damage. Don't let the politicians and media misrepresent the data to make this seem like no big deal. In just a few months Covid 19 has killed 45,000 Americans and counting. We are barely even into this pandemic and the virus might as well spread by eye contact. The stay at home order is working, but for how long? In my area we see folks driving to the homes of friends and relatives, which is exactly how this virus will spread. I just hope the farmers and employees of the stores that provide us with groceries don't get it and have to stop working.
> 
> I think we will look back on this whole thing and find it all extremely foolish, but not because we overreacted.


We have another disaster looming.  How long can states continue to pay out record unemployment without money from taxes with all the closed or very low retail sales?  It’s gonna our a huge hurt on the local governments that we will all pay dearly for.  And by paying dearly I mean money for emergency services and public works.


----------



## SpaceBus

Medic21 said:


> We have another disaster looming.  How long can states continue to pay out record unemployment without money from taxes with all the closed or very low retail sales?  It’s gonna our a huge hurt on the local governments that we will all pay dearly for.  And by paying dearly I mean money for emergency services and public works.


We will find a way. The economy will survive, but it will look different.


----------



## begreen

Sawset said:


> View attachment 259571
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ?
> View attachment 259572


Yes, they say there is no evidence that cats can transmit the virus, but I am suspicious. SARS 1 was transmitted by civet cats IIRC.


----------



## peakbagger

Civets are not cats, they are closer to a mongoose or a fox.


----------



## begreen

peakbagger said:


> Civets are not cats, they are closer to a mongoose or a fox.


Thanks for the correction. Though they are sometimes called civit cats, they are not. Actually it looks like their family, the viverrids,  is quite unique and includes genets and linsangs.








						viverrid | mammal family
					

viverrid,  (family Viverridae),  any of 35 species of small Old World mammals including civets, genets, and linsangs. Viverrids are among the most poorly known carnivores. They are rarely encountered, being small and secretive inhabitants of forests and dense vegetation. In addition, many...



					www.britannica.com


----------



## Medic21

SpaceBus said:


> I get it that most people won't die from this, or even become critical. However, I don't want to be the person that gets this and does become critical or even a mild case resulting in lifelong lung damage. Don't let the politicians and media misrepresent the data to make this seem like no big deal. In just a few months Covid 19 has killed 45,000 Americans and counting. We are barely even into this pandemic and the virus might as well spread by eye contact. The stay at home order is working, but for how long? In my area we see folks driving to the homes of friends and relatives, which is exactly how this virus will spread. I just hope the farmers and employees of the stores that provide us with groceries don't get it and have to stop working.
> 
> I think we will look back on this whole thing and find it all extremely foolish, but not because we overreacted.


Also, I have said it a million times by now. 

What happened to get us to the point where people need a government to tell them to stay safe? is our population getting so weak minded that they cannot make decisions on their own. If things open up and you don’t agree. Stay home. Don’t go out and then go visit those that are at risk Like parents or grandparents. For Christ’sale if people are that stupid it scares me.

This does need to be respected if your in or a loved one is in one of those categories that is at risk.


----------



## PaulOinMA

Dr. Leana Wen has been on CNN a lot.  She's on now.  She sounds exactly like someone I know, and I can't figure out who.


----------



## begreen

Medic21 said:


> Also, I have said it a million times by now.
> 
> What happened to get us to the point where people need a government to tell them to stay safe? is our population getting so weak minded that they cannot make decisions on their own. If things open up and you don’t agree. Stay home. Don’t go out and then go visit those that are at risk Like parents or grandparents. For Christ’sale if people are that stupid it scares me.
> 
> This does need to be respected if your in or a loved one is in one of those categories that is at risk.


Be very scared then.


----------



## Sawset

Medic21 said:


> is our population getting so weak minded that they cannot make decisions on their


There are a whole lot of decisions made in the name of national security. Has nothing to do with weakness. If this thing got into where either of us here work, it could very well be a monumental catastrophe. It's already effecting our food souces (meat packing, dairy, vegetable farms). Silently getting into the local retirement facility could be devastating. We're just crossing our fingers that we're not directly effected, and with all the knuckle heads running around also glad there is some oversite coming from a higher level.


----------



## begreen

Sawset said:


> There are a whole lot of decisions made in the name of national security. Has nothing to do with weakness. If this thing got into where either of us here work, it could very well be a monumental catastrophe. It's already effecting our food souces (meat packing, dairy, vegetable farms). Silently getting into the local retirement facility could be devastating. We're just crossing our fingers that we're not directly effected, and with all the knuckle heads running around also glad there is some oversite coming from a higher level.


Locally there are some very strict protocols for our elder care facility. They are particularly vulnerable. The virus getting into retirement facilities has already happened nearby. It first showed up in WA state at a retirement home and in NJ, it has been devastating.


----------



## Prof

bholler said:


> I agree there is absolutely no way we could be completely prepared for a pandemic.  Because clearly we would not know far enough in advance exactly what would be needed.  But putting scientists and medical professionals in the leadership instead of the VP and Jared kushner might have been a good idea.    Keeping the pandemic task force well funded and manned probably would have helped.  Not down playing it for so long would have been a good idea.


Why does this seem so damn logical to me?


----------



## mcdougy

LTC facilities have been a tragedy here, they have just now put in directives for them to follow. A complete neglect imo from govt. My belief is that it stems from the lack of ppe and the mix of private run govt funded system. The lack testing sure played into the mass spread. My dad's place is currently sitting at 3 dead, 7 more positive and 9 staff positive.  I've convinced myself that my father will be a-symptomatic as he is what's known as the toughest people in the medical world.....  a farmer. It allows me sleep at least. Refusing to test people without symptoms gave families no choice but to keep them in the "fire" Today they started testing all residents as per new protocol.....it's been a rough 5 weeks.


----------



## Medic21

begreen said:


> Locally there are some very strict protocols for our elder care facility. They are particularly vulnerable. The virus getting into retirement facilities has already happened nearby. It first showed up in WA state at a retirement home and in NJ, it has been devastating.


I’m really surprised right now that some of these facilities have not restricted staff from coming and going at this point.  That is how it will get in them.


----------



## Ashful

Medic21 said:


> What happened to get us to the point where people need a government to tell them to stay safe?


You seem to be implying there was some point in history when the public would have done better, in this regard?  Education and information accessibility generally does not improve as one moves backwards through history, nor does ignorance diminish.  I'd be willing to bet that, given the same opportunity for mobility, any past popultion would do far worse than today's population, under similar circumstances.


----------



## mcdougy

Medic21 said:


> I’m really surprised right now that some of these facilities have not restricted staff from coming and going at this point.  That is how it will get in them.
> 
> I don't think you should be surprised, it's a pure example of how private and govt together don't work.
> It allows finger pointing when things start going array. Hospitals that are completely govt funded here work much better.
> Staff and patient have a much better experience.
> The mixed system results in lower wages and minimum care. The argument then becomes we need more funding, raise prices, or cut costs.


----------



## maple1

mcdougy said:


> LTC facilities have been a tragedy here, they have just now put in directives for them to follow. A complete neglect imo from govt. My belief is that it stems from the lack of ppe and the mix of private run govt funded system. The lack testing sure played into the mass spread. My dad's place is currently sitting at 3 dead, 7 more positive and 9 staff positive.  I've convinced myself that my father will be a-symptomatic as he is what's known as the toughest people in the medical world.....  a farmer. It allows me sleep at least. Refusing to test people without symptoms gave families no choice but to keep them in the "fire" Today they started testing all residents as per new protocol.....it's been a rough 5 weeks.



That is also where it is hitting hardest now in NS. 

Changes to be coming, I am sure. Or at least sure hope so.


----------



## Sawset

Prof said:


> But putting scientists and medical professionals in the leadership instead of the VP and Jared kushner might have been a good idea.





Prof said:


> Why does this seem so damn logical to me?


Brilliant scientists from a brilliant lab also came up with drinking bleach, isopropyl, and uv light. Those silly scientists.
Most people say that it was a little birdy that told them.  With some, it's a little bat that told them.


----------



## SpaceBus

Medic21 said:


> Also, I have said it a million times by now.
> 
> What happened to get us to the point where people need a government to tell them to stay safe? is our population getting so weak minded that they cannot make decisions on their own. If things open up and you don’t agree. Stay home. Don’t go out and then go visit those that are at risk Like parents or grandparents. For Christ’sale if people are that stupid it scares me.
> 
> This does need to be respected if your in or a loved one is in one of those categories that is at risk.


The government needs to get involved because most people don't have the financial stability to jsut stay home. Obviously these corporations don't give a damn about your son or me, so why would anyone else?


----------



## Ashful

SpaceBus said:


> The government needs to get involved because most people don't have the financial stability to jsut stay home. Obviously these corporations don't give a damn about your son or me, so why would anyone else?


I agree 100% with your first sentence, although I’d not be so quick to bite the hand that feeds me, I happen to think my employer cares a great deal about my well-being. After all, they make far more off of my effort than I make from them, and I would hope nearly everyone is able to put themselves in such a position of providing actual value to their company.

But yes, most folks can’t just take an impromptu 2-month unpaid vacation, and that’s where our stimulus bills come in.  However, I am having trouble understanding the $2T bill of the largest stimulus bill, when even directly paying the entire salary of ~50M individuals with income affected by this virus would only tally $259B for a two-month period.  For this, we set aside $600B, which may be a good number, given anticipated long-term effects.  What I cannot understand is that, with this amount set aside for the individual, why are we paying corporations roughy $1,400 billion dollars on the pretense of keeping those individuals salaried?

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-anatomy-of-the-2-trillion-covid-19-stimulus-bill/


----------



## SpaceBus

Ashful said:


> I agree 100% with your first sentence, although I’d not be so quick to bite the hand that feeds me, I happen to think my employer cares a great deal about my well-being. After all, they make far more off of my effort than I make from them, and I would hope nearly everyone is able to put themselves in such a position of providing actual value to their company.
> 
> But yes, most folks can’t just take an impromptu 2-month unpaid vacation, and that’s where our stimulus bills come in.  However, I am having trouble understanding the $2T bill of the largest stimulus bill, when even directly paying the entire salary of ~50M individuals with income affected by this virus would only tally $259B for a two-month period.  For this, we set aside $600B, which may be a good number, given anticipated long-term effects.  What I cannot understand is that, with this amount set aside for the individual, why are we paying corporations roughy $1,400 billion dollars on the pretense of keeping those individuals salaried?
> 
> https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-anatomy-of-the-2-trillion-covid-19-stimulus-bill/


Yes, the stimulus bill is loaded with fat for the corporate oligarchs. The 1.4T is supposed to be for folks like my wife, but that's not how it's working out. This will instead pay the CEOs and BODs since folks aren't out spending that money. I was told growing up this money would trickle down to folks at the bottom, but they can't fool me with that line of garbage anymore. Most corporations/large businesses don't care about the peons at the bottom. I think the US Army cared more for my wellbeing than the previous nursing agency corporation that my wife worked for. She's working for a small nurse owned agency now, well furloughed, but they aren't getting any funding and can't do anything to help my wife. Thankfully we are good at planning and I have a medical pension (well I'd rather be healthy and working full time) so we are going to be ok, but most won't be.

You are right, not all companies disregard their employees (walking profit), but many do.


----------



## bholler

Sawset said:


> Brilliant scientists from a brilliant lab also came up with drinking bleach, isopropyl, and uv light. Those silly scientists.
> Most people say that it was a little birdy that told them.  With some, it's a little bat that told them.


What is this referencing?


----------



## Sawset

bholler said:


> What is this referencing?


It's political - sorry.   How do we  dissengage from the twisted nonsense, setups, then attacks on the press.  And here I am perpetuating it.  I wish we could get back to calm and deliberate, wouldn't that be refreshing.








						Doctors are lining up to attack Trump for suggesting that injecting disinfectant might help fight the coronavirus
					

President Donald Trump suggested looking into injecting disinfectants into the human body to treat the coronavirus. Doctors are horrified.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## bholler

Sawset said:


> It's political - sorry.   How do we  dissengage from the twisted nonsense, setups, then attacks on the press.  And here I am perpetuating it.  I wish we could get back to calm and deliberate, wouldn't that be refreshing.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Doctors are lining up to attack Trump for suggesting that injecting disinfectant might help fight the coronavirus
> 
> 
> President Donald Trump suggested looking into injecting disinfectants into the human body to treat the coronavirus. Doctors are horrified.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.businessinsider.com


Wow I hadn't seen that.  Just wow


----------



## Medic21

Sawset said:


> And here I am perpetuating it.  I wish we could get back to calm and deliberate



But, no one wants a debate here.  Have a different opinion and your jumped for acting like “god” or having a blatant disregard for others.  Don’t get me wrong, I don’t give a chit and I have thicker skin than that but, that statement made me laugh this morning.  

have a great day!!


----------



## Ashful

Medic21 said:


> But, no one wants a debate here.  Have a different opinion and your jumped for acting like “god” or having a blatant disregard for others.


I don’t think that’s a fair statement, there is plenty of good debate, here.  But a lot of your statements are made from an apparent stance that only you know best, despite ample evidence and solid citations to the contrary.  That is the likely genesis of the former god comment, if you’ll pardon the pun.

... and yes, I recognize the irony of me pointing this out.  We are all guilty of it sometimes, to varying degrees, but some do a better job of acknowledging and self-correcting when called out on it.


----------



## bholler

Medic21 said:


> But, no one wants a debate here.  Have a different opinion and your jumped for acting like “god” or having a blatant disregard for others.  Don’t get me wrong, I don’t give a chit and I have thicker skin than that but, that statement made me laugh this morning.
> 
> have a great day!!


The reaction to your posts atleast from me has allot to do with the way it is delivered.  When you present you opinion as fact and act like anyone who disagrees is an idiot it tends to bother people.  

That being said I agree with some of your opinions.  And absolutely respect the fact that you can look past the politics.


----------



## Medic21

bholler said:


> The reaction to your posts atleast from me has allot to do with the way it is delivered.  When you present you opinion as fact and act like anyone who disagrees is an idiot it tends to bother people.
> 
> That being said I agree with some of your opinions.  And absolutely respect the fact that you can look past the politics.


I’m sick of only one side of this whole situation being acknowledged. There are way too many stupid, not most y’all I can tell there is a lot of educated members with common sense, people that blindly follow.

I will forever stand by the following though process.



			Redirect Notice


----------



## begreen

The number of billionaires pushing everyone to work early proves one thing. They don't make their money. We do.


----------



## Sawset

Cheers.
They did have a way of reflecting on real life.

https://video-ort2-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v...=30c4653046732538bd00c5f0a1ff3aac&oe=5EA31632


----------



## SpaceBus

begreen said:


> The number of billionaires pushing everyone to work early proves one thing. They don't make their money. We do.


I hope everyone can realize this.


----------



## Ashful

Sawset said:


> Cheers.
> They did have a way of reflecting on real life.
> 
> https://video-ort2-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v...=30c4653046732538bd00c5f0a1ff3aac&oe=5EA31632


URL expired.


----------



## begreen

Try this


----------



## MTY

I am sitting here absolutely stunned by the idea a corporation would care more about a worker than the bottom line.  If a CBA showed x number of employees dying would boost profit, middle managers would be getting a new metric to be measured by.  Going back to work is not about allowing Jimmy and Jane to make a mortgage payment, it is about the company making a profit.


----------



## Ashful

begreen said:


> Try this



Weird, your link failed, too.  Found it on YouTube, tho... pretty funny.


----------



## SpaceBus

MTY said:


> I am sitting here absolutely stunned by the idea a corporation would care more about a worker than the bottom line.  If a CBA showed x number of employees dying would boost profit, middle managers would be getting a new metric to be measured by.  Going back to work is not about allowing Jimmy and Jane to make a mortgage payment, it is about the company making a profit.


It's not even just corporations. Even small and family owned businesses can be run by jerks. My wife works for a nursing agency founded by nurses, but the management/owners are the worst and don't give a damn about her. Back in NC I worked for a small family owned business after getting out of the Army and they always treated me like crap for not being from the town/family. Greed has no size limit.


----------



## begreen

Medic21 said:


> I’m really surprised right now that some of these facilities have not restricted staff from coming and going at this point.  That is how it will get in them.


That is the protocol at our local retirement home. So far no cases.


----------



## Medic21

SpaceBus said:


> It's not even just corporations. Even small and family owned businesses can be run by jerks. My wife works for a nursing agency founded by nurses, but the management/owners are the worst and don't give a damn about her. Back in NC I worked for a small family owned business after getting out of the Army and they always treated me like crap for not being from the town/family. Greed has no size limit.


I have yet to find anywhere I have worked that will treat any employee other than a number that’s replaceable at moments notice.  

I try to manage people like I did in the Army minus all the bullshit games and it’s served me well. Anywhere I have been a manager every person that leaves on their own wants to come back within a year. It’s amazing how people will work for you when you give the respect, loyalty, and lead them instead of manage them.

I’ve lost a job because I wouldn’t treat employees like chit and the owners thought I was being taken advantage of. To their surprise 50% of the employees I had under me came with me within the year. Some people will never learn. Your employees will make or break your company based on how you treat them.

Sweetwater Sound is local here.  The owner has grown a garage business into a multi million dollar business on the principle of treating people like family.  He will surpass a Billion in profit in the next couple years.  It pretty impressive what he’s accomplished.


----------



## Sawset

I have a friend in Iowa who is an actuary (ie: insurance, statistics, rates, etc). Iowa ranks #42 in testing, #16 in number of cases, no shelter in place mandate, and are about to relax what restrictions are in place currently, despite additional outbreaks at Tyson foods and a doubling in the last week for retirement homes. No evidence of hitting any kind of peak, or even coming close to  flattening of a curve. She mentions they are being set up for, and likely to have, one of the worst round twos in the country. Hmm, what did she say? Round two. She's a statistician. She sees what goes on through a different lense, and is talking about round two.


----------



## begreen

As suspected, Covid-19 is not just going for the lungs. This is is a formidable bug that needs to be taken seriously. 



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients


----------



## Medic21

begreen said:


> As suspected, Covid-19 is not just going for the lungs. This is is a formidable bug that needs to be taken seriously.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients


This is part of the cytokine storm that is happening in a very low percentage of pts.  It causes DIC, activates the clotting mechanisms on a large scale in the body.  Having seen one of these pts last week it is unbelievable as to how sick they get in such a short time.  Thank god this is a low frequency type of pt.  

We saw, caused, DIC in our trauma pts for years with rapid volume placement with shock.  It is one of the ugliest conditions with a poor outcome.


----------



## SpaceBus

Many PTs are dying from lung hemorrhaging. The virus breaks down the kind of elastic membrane on the outside of the blood vessels. Once the membrane is compromised the vessels burst causing internal bleeding. In addition to the bleeding apparently the natural blood clotting procedure is interrupted and folks just keep bleeding into their lungs. A vent won't save someone from that.


----------



## SpaceBus

Oh yeah, many folks also get life long lung damage even in "mild" cases.


			Redirect Notice


----------



## Medic21

SpaceBus said:


> Many PTs are dying from lung hemorrhaging. The virus breaks down the kind of elastic membrane on the outside of the blood vessels. Once the membrane is compromised the vessels burst causing internal bleeding. In addition to the bleeding apparently the natural blood clotting procedure is interrupted and folks just keep bleeding into their lungs. A vent won't save someone from that.


Again, this is not the virus that does this.  It’s all part of the auto immune response cytokine storm.  

This is a body killing itself in these few patients. VERY few patients will experience these issues but, the virus is only the trigger.  The Bodybdoes it to itself.


----------



## SpaceBus

Medic21 said:


> Again, this is not the virus that does this.  It’s all part of the auto immune response cytokine storm.
> 
> This is a body killing itself in these few patients. VERY few patients will experience these issues but, the virus is only the trigger.  The Bodybdoes it to itself.


No, the virus literally destroys the Epithelial cells on the outside of the blood vessels and particularly in the lungs, which are full of blood vessels. The vessels burst from the pressure created by the heart. Certainly the neutrophils bombarding the lung tissue doesn't help, but blood pooling in the lungs and causing clotting inside of the aveoli and other lung tissue would cause a decrease in respiration, which ventilation cannot help.


----------



## Medic21

SpaceBus said:


> No, the virus literally destroys the Epithelial cells on the outside of the blood vessels and particularly in the lungs, which are full of blood vessels. The vessels burst from the pressure created by the heart. Certainly the neutrophils bombarding the lung tissue doesn't help, but blood pooling in the lungs and causing clotting inside of the aveoli and other lung tissue would cause a decrease in respiration, which ventilation cannot help.





			https://www.longdom.org/open-access/disseminated-intravascular-coagulation-the-hemorrhagic-hurricane-and-the-cytokine-storm-2155-9880.1000e127.pdf
		




			Redirect Notice
		










						Deadly immune 'storm' caused by emergent flu infections
					

Scientists have mapped key elements of a severe immune overreaction -— a “cytokine storm” -— that can both sicken and kill patients who are infected with certain strains of flu virus. A cytokine storm is an overproduction of immune cells and their activating compounds (cytokines), which, in a...



					www.sciencedaily.com
				












						How Ebola Kills You: It's Not The Virus
					

Ebola has a nasty reputation for damaging the body, especially its blood vessels. But when you look at the nitty-gritty details of what happens after a person is infected, a surprising fact surfaces.




					www.npr.org
				




I can go in for thousands of articles, publications, and medical studies going back decades.  It’s the cytokine storm that does all the damage in the body not the virus itself. As with all auto immune disorders we really don’t have a way to stop it just support the body while it runs it’s course.  Anaphylaxis, Addisons Disease, Lupus, etc can be supported not “cured”.


----------



## Medic21

There is more we don’t know about Cytokines than what we do know.  But, the cytokine storm has been associated with poor outcomes in a lot of different viruses.  









						Cytokines, Inflammation and Pain
					

Cytokines are small secreted proteins released by cells have a specific effect on the interactions and communications between cells. Cytokine is a general name; other names include lymphokine (cytokines made by lymphocytes), monokine (cytokines made by ...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


----------



## Medic21

Very good information on current data.  At 18min they discuss the immune system and how we now have real data to drive decisions that need to be made.  I think the most relevant point is we need to transition from speculation, all me had in the beginning, to know data and facts.


----------



## begreen

Medic21 said:


> There is more we don’t know about Cytokines than what we do know.  But, the cytokine storm has been associated with poor outcomes in a lot of different viruses.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Cytokines, Inflammation and Pain
> 
> 
> Cytokines are small secreted proteins released by cells have a specific effect on the interactions and communications between cells. Cytokine is a general name; other names include lymphokine (cytokines made by lymphocytes), monokine (cytokines made by ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


Very true. This virus is a serious disease, attacking or faking out the immune system on multiple fronts. In some cases, it is destroying T cells. The why and how of this is still to be determined. Most nations are pooling resources to solve these puzzles asap under the direction of the WHO. Only the US has chosen to go it alone. A very untimely response IMO. One would think we would have learned by the botched CDC testing early on that time is of the essence here.


----------



## Medic21

begreen said:


> Very true. This virus is a serious disease, attacking or faking out the immune system on multiple fronts. In some cases, it is destroying T cells. The why and how of this is still to be determined. Most nations are pooling resources to solve these puzzles asap under the direction of the WHO. Only the US has chosen to go it alone. A very untimely response IMO. One would think we would have learned by the botched CDC testing early on that time is of the essence here.


We have given cytokines a ton of dedicated research for decades.  Personally I trust our research ability over the rest of the world when it comes to this.   It’s time to formulate accurate data and plans on our own.

 The data is out there and available in our country right now.  What started as a good response has not evolved into a practical response as we get that data.  Because we are relying on politicians to decide what’s best and not the right people.  

Top that with the information bias, people only listen to what they believe is correct, and we have the mess we are in right now.


----------



## SpaceBus

The cytokene storm absolutely exists, but is not the sole cause of lung hemorrhaging. I'm simply saying that the virus will attack any cell with an ACE2 receptor, and that means Epithelial cells which control blood pressure.


----------



## Medic21

SpaceBus said:


> The cytokene storm absolutely exists, but is not the sole cause of lung hemorrhaging. I'm simply saying that the virus will attack any cell with an ACE2 receptor, and that means Epithelial cells which control blood pressure.





			https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsr2005760
		


And, the most recent research is starting to contradict what the scientists initially thought.

That’s the information bias I posted about earlier. You believe, rightfully so, a scientist and then can’t see changes in the research as it progresses.

I subscribe to a bunch of different medical research sites and the information is being bombarded out right now. ALL initial publications 4-6 weeks ago were not peer reviewed publications. Now that peer review process is happening and information vomit is happening.

By the way, the FDA, has issued a safety warning on hydroxychlorquine in the last two days.  I think that was a highly touted treatment by a bunch of people here and everywhere else.  Information bias...


----------



## paulnlee

begreen said:


> Sobering stats from New Jersey. 40% of coronavirus deaths are in long-term care facilities. That's over 1,900 deaths in just a month.





begreen said:


> That is the protocol at our local retirement home. So far no cases.


But didn't it start in a nursing home in your state?








						Andrew Cuomo Under Fire for Directive Requiring Nursing Homes to Accept Coronavirus Patients
					

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo issued a directive requiring nursing homes to accept coronavirus patients despite the known risks to the elderly.




					www.breitbart.com
				




Read this about the media's hero Cuomo. A doc & ceo of a nursing home called Mark Levin on 3-26 about this. He didn't believe her at first, thought she was a kook until she convinced him of her creds. Why nothing about this for a month in the news? The Post finally ran an article a few days ago.


----------



## Medic21

paulnlee said:


> But didn't it start in a nursing home in your state?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Andrew Cuomo Under Fire for Directive Requiring Nursing Homes to Accept Coronavirus Patients
> 
> 
> New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo issued a directive requiring nursing homes to accept coronavirus patients despite the known risks to the elderly.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.breitbart.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Read this about the media's hero Cuomo. A doc & ceo of a nursing home called Mark Levin on 3-26 about this. He didn't believe her at first, thought she was a kook until she convinced him of her creds. Why nothing about this for a month in the news? The Post finally ran an article a few days ago.


Just based on the number of deadly flu outbreaks in a year in nursing homes common sense should have told every elected official something.  Introducing a virus that is more infectious than one that we vaccinate for will decimate nursing homes on a higher level.  

Locally we had a nurse that went to work for a week with a fever that tested positive after that week.  We know there is asymptomatic spread of the virus so that’s not in dispute.  No residents have gotten sick or tested positive after a week and all were tested.  This tells me that the PPE precautions must actually work.  By that nurse wearing a mask, gloves she changed between pts, and hand washing She did not infect anyone else.  She hopefully was fired but, it is also proof there is a way to be gone opening up.


----------



## begreen

paulnlee said:


> But didn't it start in a nursing home in your state?


Now it looks like it may have started in CA, but the first reported cases were at a nursing home, 35 miles away, in Kirkland, WA. Our local nursing home adopted strict protocols shortly afterward and has stuck with them.


----------



## begreen

Medic21 said:


> Personally I trust our research ability over the rest of the world when it comes to this. It’s time to formulate accurate data and plans on our own.


It's not that I don't trust our immunologists, I know a few of them personally, including one that worked at Immunex on the first T-cell pharmaceuticals. Even though we have good internal experts, that is not a reason to not network when solving a large and difficult problem. One never knows where a solution may arise out of a conversation or obscure research. Not networking and trying to go it alone in this situation is not a good idea. There is a propensity here to favor big Pharma here that is also detrimental. This has to be a race to a solution, not a big profit.


----------



## SpaceBus

Medic21 said:


> https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsr2005760
> 
> 
> 
> And, the most recent research is starting to contradict what the scientists initially thought.
> 
> That’s the information bias I posted about earlier. You believe, rightfully so, a scientist and then can’t see changes in the research as it progresses.
> 
> I subscribe to a bunch of different medical research sites and the information is being bombarded out right now. ALL initial publications 4-6 weeks ago were not peer reviewed publications. Now that peer review process is happening and information vomit is happening.
> 
> By the way, the FDA, has issued a safety warning on hydroxychlorquine in the last two days.  I think that was a highly touted treatment by a bunch of people here and everywhere else.  Information bias...


I've always said chloroquines are unsafe. What I'm talking about is a recent development. My wife being a nurse, specifically a pediatric respiratory nurse (vent specialist), is paying very close attention to this whole thing. I also basically live every day in a cytokene storm, nobody is sure why. Viruses destroy cells to reproduce. Epithelial cells have ace2 receptors and there are many in the lungs, where the virus seems to "prefer" residence. The ACE2 receptor hijacking is not a new thing either, and has little dispute to my knowledge.


----------



## Medic21

SpaceBus said:


> I've always said chloroquines are unsafe. What I'm talking about is a recent development. My wife being a nurse, specifically a pediatric respiratory nurse (vent specialist), is paying very close attention to this whole thing. I also basically live every day in a cytokene storm, nobody is sure why. Viruses destroy cells to reproduce. Epithelial cells have ace2 receptors and there are many in the lungs, where the virus seems to "prefer" residence. The ACE2 receptor hijacking is not a new thing either, and has little dispute to my knowledge.


There was an initial thought that went forth that is was a bigger deal than we have determined.  That was along with Motrin and steroids being bad.  The fact is steroids, in enormously high dosing is the treatment I’m seeing on the very sick pts.  They limit that inflammatory response. I have pushed more steroids IV in the last 6 weeks than my entire career.


----------



## SpaceBus

Medic21 said:


> There was an initial thought that went forth that is was a bigger deal than we have determined.  That was along with Motrin and steroids being bad.  The fact is steroids, in enormously high dosing is the treatment I’m seeing on the very sick pts.  They limit that inflammatory response. I have pushed more steroids IV in the last 6 weeks than my entire career.


Steroids are the only thing that can stop my immune system when it really tries to kill me. Last time I had a crisis my platelets dropped to 5 (150-300 normal) and my neutrophils were so low as to not register. IVIG therapy, prednisone, and dexamethasone are the only drugs that will suppress my immune system enough to live. Thankfully it's been less aggressive lately and I haven't had to take anything for a year. Summer 2018 I got into some poison ivy and the only thing that would stop it was prednisone, which I hate to take. Corticosteroids suck in general and should not be given lightly


----------



## Sodbuster

bholler said:


> Wow I hadn't seen that.  Just wow



Did you actually watch the entire news conference from beginning to end?


----------



## bholler

Sodbuster said:


> Did you actually watch the entire news conference from beginning to end?


Yes and it's isn't quite as horribly irresponsible as many are making it out to be.  But wow just the same.  Did you?


----------



## Sodbuster

bholler said:


> Yes and it's isn't quite as horribly irresponsible as many are making it out to be.  But wow just the same.  Did you?



Yes I did, and came to the same conclusion as you did. I think he's just trying to think outside the box, he should just let VP Pence have these briefings. I don't recall the last time we had a worldwide pandemic of this nature where there were so many experts working on it, and were no closer to a cure. I have a bad feeling this will be around for a while, and that our lives will not be the same for a long time. The last time we had something along these lines, it was HIV, and that is preventable using lifestyle changes, with the exception of mother/child transmission.


----------



## bholler

Sodbuster said:


> Yes I did, and came to the same conclusion as you did. I think he's just trying to think outside the box, he should just let VP Pence have these briefings. I don't recall the last time we had a worldwide pandemic of this nature where there were so many experts working on it, and were no closer to a cure. I have a bad feeling this will be around for a while, and that our lives will not be the same for a long time. The last time we had something along these lines, it was HIV, and that is preventable using lifestyle changes, with the exception of mother/child transmission.


If that conversation had happened in a closed meeting fine.  Sometimes off the wall ideas can lead to something.  But behind a mic addressing the country is not the time or place.


----------



## Sodbuster

bholler said:


> If that conversation had happened in a closed meeting fine.  Sometimes off the wall ideas can lead to something.  But behind a mic addressing the country is not the time or place.



Which is why I suggested he let VP Pence handle the day to day.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

Sodbuster said:


> Which is why I suggested he let VP Pence handle the day to day.


Not any politician should do the daily briefing. Medical experts should.


----------



## Sodbuster

Jan Pijpelink said:


> Not any politician should do the daily briefing. Medical experts should.



Great, which Dr? The Surgeon General, CDC, WHO nobody has the answer, who would you chose?


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

Sodbuster said:


> Great, which Dr? The Surgeon General, CDC, WHO nobody has the answer, who would you chose?


Virus experts. Trump nor Pence have no clue about all this. It is not about who has the answer, nobody has, but politicians who have no idea what they are talking about should remain quiet.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

Let me be bold here. Any public figure, in this case POTUS, suggesting live on TV, that people inject themselves with household cleaners such as bleach, demonstrate they have an IQ of a soap bar, which equals zero. I realize I will be shot because of this, but that is what it looked like last Thursday.


----------



## Sodbuster

With a name like Jan, we must both be Dutch, so hopefully we can come to some common ground. CDC, WHO, and countless Universities have virus experts and scientists on staff. But someone has to run point, and give a daily briefing. I voted for Trump and will probably do so again, but I agree he is not the best person to have out front. This is a job probably left to the Surgeon General, otherwise, why have him?


----------



## Sodbuster

Jan Pijpelink said:


> Let me be bold here. Any public figure, in this case POTUS, suggesting live on TV, that people inject themselves with household cleaners such as bleach, demonstrate they have an IQ of a soap bar, which equals zero. I realize I will be shot because of this, but that is what it looked like last Thursday.



Jan, if you watched the whole press conference that is not what he said. It's a little hard to watch, but watch the entire thing if you have the time.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

Sodbuster said:


> With a name like Jan, we must both be Dutch, so hopefully we can come to some common ground. CDC, WHO, and countless Universities have virus experts and scientists on staff. But someone has to run point, and give a daily briefing. I voted for Trump and will probably do so again, but I agree he is not the best person to have out front. This is a job probably left to the Surgeon General, otherwise, why have him?


Jan is a very common name in the Check republic, Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, Poland, Germany and lots of other European countries.


----------



## Sodbuster

Jan Pijpelink said:


> Jan is a very common name in the Check republic, Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, Poland, Germany and lots of other European cointries.



My mistake then, between your first and last name, you sounded Dutch to me.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

Sodbuster said:


> Jan, if you watched the whole press conference that is not what he said. It's a little hard to watch, but watch the entire thing if you have the time.


I did, several times, and that is what he suggested, including the UV and bright light thing. I also saw the reaction of Dr. Brix when he mentioned it. This is not political, this about being ignorant and plain stupidity.


----------



## Jan Pijpelink

Sodbuster said:


> My mistake then, between your first and last name, you sounded Dutch to me.


I was Dutch, American now.


----------



## Sodbuster

Jan Pijpelink said:


> I was Dutch, American now.



As am I, Dutch heritage, full American now, still proud of my ancestry though.


----------



## Sodbuster

Jan Pijpelink said:


> I did, several times, and that is what he suggested, including the UV and bright light thing. I also saw the reaction of Dr. Brix when he mentioned it. This is not political, this about being ignorant and plain stupidity.



If you watched the one with Dr. Brix, you watched the short version, YouTube has been highly censoring the longer version.


----------



## branchburner

Medic21 said:


> At 18min they discuss the immune system



I don't disagree with the points being made, but the notion that a "shelter in place" order suppresses the immune system seems a bit off. Nothing about that type of order prevents you from going out and getting dirty, or requires you to live in a bubble. Presumably, by the time you are an adult, building an immune system through decades of exposure to people, places and things will not suddenly vanish if you avoid normal levels of social contact for a few weeks. This assertion discredits their claims of "following the science" because it is a dubious and totally unnecessary claim.


----------



## AlbergSteve

Sodbuster said:


> Great, which Dr? The Surgeon General, CDC, WHO nobody has the answer, who would you chose?



In Canada, we have a Chief Public Health Officer taking the lead, the politicians are there in a support role, barely seen or heard. The provinces have Provincial Health Officers taking the lead, again with politicians in the background in support roles.
Your country is such a god damned mess you don't know who should do a medical briefing? WTF?
Just leave it up the the orange man to come up with solutions? Good luck with that. And when this is all over, I think you're going to be "Number 1" again. Yeah, not in a good way.

It's been depressing watching the train wreck south of 49 for the last  three and a half years. They say you get the government you deserve - well, there you go. There have been a few people  on here, seemingly smart, informed and thoughtful that I've respected and valued their opinion, then they say even with all the downsides of voting for the current "leader", they will again. I simply can't reconcile that dichotomy.
Thanks for all the stove info over the last two years. Thanks @begreen  for being level-headed.
With that, I'm done.


----------



## Medic21

branchburner said:


> I don't disagree with the points being made, but the notion that a "shelter in place" order suppresses the immune system seems a bit off. Nothing about that type of order prevents you from going out and getting dirty, or requires you to live in a bubble. Presumably, by the time you are an adult, building an immune system through decades of exposure to people, places and things will not suddenly vanish if you avoid normal levels of social contact for a few weeks. This assertion discredits their claims of "following the science" because it is a dubious and totally unnecessary claim.


I think they oversimplified what they were trying to say. I think it’s more of a situation where some of the immunity we gain is temporary. And it’s a repeat exposures over time to keep that immunity buildup. It’s the same thing That we dealt with disorders in a rack you deploy and get sick you come home you re-deploy a year later and get sick again. The immunity built up to certain viruses don’t last forever.


----------



## semipro

Medic21 said:


> I think they oversimplified what they were trying to say. I think it’s more of a situation where some of the immunity we gain is temporary. And it’s a repeat exposures over time to keep that immunity buildup. It’s the same thing That we dealt with disorders in a rack you deploy and get sick you come home you re-deploy a year later and get sick again. The immunity built up to certain viruses don’t last forever.


Which makes me think of Tetanus, where repeated periodic vaccinations protect us from this bacterium.


----------



## Medic21

semipro said:


> Which makes me think of Tetanus, where repeated periodic vaccinations protect us from this bacterium.


There are very few one time only vaccines.  Most need boosters every so many years.


----------



## Ashful

Medic21 said:


> I think they oversimplified what they were trying to say. I think it’s more of a situation where some of the immunity we gain is temporary. And it’s a repeat exposures over time to keep that immunity buildup.


Exactly.  Not only this, but the things to which you have built immunity haven’t suddenly stopped developing new mutations, out of some bizarre virological respect for the mighty Corona virus.   There are plenty of examples in human history of isolated populations not fairing well against disease, when recombined with the populations from which they have descended, after many years of isolation.  However, on such a short time scale, I think either factor is not worth even considering, in the face of the alternative.


----------



## Ashful

AlbergSteve said:


> They say you get the government you deserve - well, there you go. There have been a few people  on here, seemingly smart, informed and thoughtful that I've respected and valued their opinion, then they say even with all the downsides of voting for the current "leader", they will again. I simply can't reconcile that dichotomy.


Maybe you need to stay out of the American politics, Steve.  All I can say is that every four years we are given the choice to select the lesser of two evils, and enough people in the right districts decided the other choice was even worse.


----------



## semipro

AlbergSteve said:


> It's been depressing watching the train wreck south of 49 for the last three and a half years. They say you get the government you deserve - well, there you go. There have been a few people on here, seemingly smart, informed and thoughtful that I've respected and valued their opinion, then they say even with all the downsides of voting for the current "leader", they will again. I simply can't reconcile that dichotomy.
> Thanks for all the stove info over the last two years. Thanks @begreen for being level-headed.
> With that, I'm done.


I understand your sentiment but I have to say that I've seen views change as a result of the discussion that goes on here, sometimes drastically.  While we shouldn't tell people what to think (though many successfully do  ) we can provide them with evidence that maybe they haven't seen yet and hope that they're objective enough to alter their opinions.


----------



## kennyp2339

Im starting to feel a little restless with isolation / lockdown. The weather is starting to improve here, its been about 6 weeks of isolation and I want to go to my local state park and do some social distancing fishing. In NJ our governor decided to also close all state parks, which caused a domino effect of many county and town parks closing too. Unfortunately that means many river access points in my area were closed off because the land is either owned by the state, county or town.
I get why the park systems were closed in the beginning of the virus, we didn't have the info or supplies we needed to be safe, masks and disinfectants were stripped, but now with our existing guidelines in place and a return of basic safety products, I think its time to ease up on some of our restrictions, like opening our parks under the premise that you need to have distancing from each other, I think we are smart enough, although our president made a joke about ingesting household cleaner to kill the virus and well.. you see what's happening.


----------



## branchburner

Ashful said:


> There are plenty of examples in human history of isolated populations not faring well against disease, when recombined with the populations from which they have descended, after many years of isolation.  However, on such a short time scale, I think either factor is not worth even considering, in the face of the alternative.



Yes, I have read that centuries ago, urban populations tended to have better immunity to newer mutated viruses because they had more frequent exposure (than isolated rural communities) to related viruses over prior decades.

But in the short term, over weeks or months, isolation can be a benefit. The example of self-isolated  American Somoa (with zero deaths) during the Spanish Flu seems notable.


----------



## peakbagger

kennyp2339 said:


> Im starting to feel a little restless with isolation / lockdown. The weather is starting to improve here, its been about 6 weeks of isolation and I want to go to my local state park and do some social distancing fishing. In NJ our governor decided to also close all state parks, which caused a domino effect of many county and town parks closing too. Unfortunately that means many river access points in my area were closed off because the land is either owned by the state, county or town.
> I get why the park systems were closed in the beginning of the virus, we didn't have the info or supplies we needed to be safe, masks and disinfectants were stripped, but now with our existing guidelines in place and a return of basic safety products, I think its time to ease up on some of our restrictions, like opening our parks under the premise that you need to have distancing from each other, I think we are smart enough, although our president made a joke about ingesting household cleaner to kill the virus and well.. you see what's happening.



Here you go. zoom into the area who want to recreate somewhere, zoom in on the location find a nearby piece of conserved land and then click on the lot to see if its open to the public http://www.protectedlands.net/map/


----------



## Medic21

While I am all for figuring how to open up this is what happens when one plant does not listen to guidelines.  This is where I work and I called this 2 months ago knowing the demographics of the employees and the working conditions.  Last Friday we had 59 cases in the county and a large testing underway at a local plant.  Today we have 1025 cases after testing the entire plant and shutting it down on Friday.





While I think we can do it we have to be smart about it.   We have the highest per capita caseload in the state and close to probably anywhere.  272/10,000


----------



## kennyp2339

@peakbagger Thanks, cool map, but just as I suspected, the peoples republic of NJ land is closed.


----------



## moresnow

Sawset said:


> I have a friend in Iowa who is an actuary (ie: insurance, statistics, rates, etc). Iowa ranks #42 in testing, #16 in number of cases, no shelter in place mandate, and are about to relax what restrictions are in place currently, despite additional outbreaks at Tyson foods and a doubling in the last week for retirement homes. No evidence of hitting any kind of peak, or even coming close to  flattening of a curve. She mentions they are being set up for, and likely to have, one of the worst round twos in the country. Hmm, what did she say? Round two. She's a statistician. She sees what goes on through a different lense, and is talking about round two.


This Iowa woman you speak of......
Is off her rocker. Period.


----------



## Sawset

.





moresnow said:


> This Iowa woman you speak of......
> Is off her rocker. Period.


Probably. We'll see.
Good at math though, whole family is.


----------



## moresnow

Sawset said:


> .
> Probably. We'll see.
> Good at math though, whole family is.


I've been a supporter of herself and former administration forever. Circle talk and completely useless daily press conferences that seemingly answer zero questions have soured my view. Sadly. 

I made a living in mathematics. Her math is not working for me. I wish everyone good luck!


----------



## begreen

branchburner said:


> Yes, I have read that centuries ago, urban populations tended to have better immunity to newer mutated viruses because they had more frequent exposure (than isolated rural communities) to related viruses over prior decades.
> 
> But in the short term, over weeks or months, isolation can be a benefit. The example of self-isolated  American Somoa (with zero deaths) during the Spanish Flu seems notable.


New Zealand and Taiwan will be interesting to study over time. They have done an excellent job of controlling spread so far, including in urban areas.


----------



## Sawset

moresnow said:


> I've been a supporter of herself and former administration forever. Circle talk and completely useless daily press conferences that seemingly answer zero questions have soured my view. Sadly.
> 
> I made a living in mathematics. Her math is not working for me. I wish everyone good luck!



Ok, I get it.  No this is just a high school friend.  Known the family for years.  And she has a habit of crunching a lot of numbers. And had an opinion.  I thought it was interesting about this so called round two.  I get the feeling this whole thing will be around for some time, and there are plenty of experiments out now about how nations and states are handling it. And down the road, what will come of it all.  Who knows.  Maybe this is all booyah over reaction, and the deciders will be thrown to the wolves.  Hmm, or maybe not.  Maybe this winter will be another episode, and no one will have the nads or desire to do what we're doing now, and will pay dearly for it.  Or not.


----------



## paulnlee

Check out the devastation to our fishing business, this moron Murphy


kennyp2339 said:


> Im starting to feel a little restless with isolation / lockdown. The weather is starting to improve here, its been about 6 weeks of isolation and I want to go to my local state park and do some social distancing fishing. In NJ our governor decided to also close all state parks, which caused a domino effect of many county and town parks closing too. Unfortunately that means many river access points in my area were closed off because the land is either owned by the state, county or town.
> I get why the park systems were closed in the beginning of the virus, we didn't have the info or supplies we needed to be safe, masks and disinfectants were stripped, but now with our existing guidelines in place and a return of basic safety products, I think its time to ease up on some of our restrictions, like opening our parks under the premise that you need to have distancing from each other, I think we are smart enough, although our president made a joke about ingesting household cleaner to kill the virus and well.. you see what's happening.


Check out the ocean fishing , moron Murf the no surf is destroying.


----------



## begreen

@Medic21 I think you will appreciate this article on the positive outcome in Chicago where they are avoiding using ventilators unless absolutely necessary.








						UChicago doctors see ‘remarkable’ success using ventilator alternatives for COVID-19
					

UChicago doctors see ‘remarkable’ success using ventilator alternatives for COVID-19




					news.uchicago.edu


----------



## Medic21

begreen said:


> @Medic21 I think you will appreciate this article on the positive outcome in Chicago where they are avoiding using ventilators unless absolutely necessary.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> UChicago doctors see ‘remarkable’ success using ventilator alternatives for COVID-19
> 
> 
> UChicago doctors see ‘remarkable’ success using ventilator alternatives for COVID-19
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.uchicago.edu


I just unpacked a case of the devises for our ambulances this morning.  We may have to start transporting our pts direct to larger facilities.  Because of one plant we are getting killed right now.


----------



## Medic21

UPDATE: Public emergency declared as Cass surpasses 1,000 COVID-19 cases
					






					www.pharostribune.com
				




This is what happens when companies do not follow guidelines.


----------



## begreen

Medic21 said:


> UPDATE: Public emergency declared as Cass surpasses 1,000 COVID-19 cases
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.pharostribune.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This is what happens when companies do not follow guidelines.


Sad to hear this, it's happening here too, but not on that scale so far.








						Severe coronavirus outbreaks stagger some meat-packing plants in Washington
					

The toll on the meat processing industry has stunned some of industry's biggest players, and prompted an urgent push to redefine workplace protections needed to keep products flowing into grocery stores amid the global pandemic.




					www.seattletimes.com


----------



## Medic21

begreen said:


> Sad to hear this, it's happening here too, but not on that scale so far.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Severe coronavirus outbreaks stagger some meat-packing plants in Washington
> 
> 
> The toll on the meat processing industry has stunned some of industry's biggest players, and prompted an urgent push to redefine workplace protections needed to keep products flowing into grocery stores amid the global pandemic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.seattletimes.com


The number of people that were coming to work sick was outrageous.  They offered a $500 bonus for perfect attendance for the month of April so no one would call off for any reason.  That and they were advised to close for two weeks at the beginning of the month.  Had they staggered their plant closures over a month and a half they would have curbed this and been in a lot better position than having all their Midwest plants closed at once.  We have had by far the largest outbreak, I attribute that to telling workers that are financially struggling they will get an extra $500 for attendance, of any of their plants.  550 cases and growing.  Pretty sad that a county with a population of 38,000 has more more than double the cases of a county of over 300,000.  That to me is reckless behavior.


----------



## begreen

This virus is going to keep lawyers busy for years.


----------



## Medic21

begreen said:


> This virus is going to keep lawyers busy for years.



I’m very curious to see how that situation will pan out here.  Reckless decisions at the minimum.


----------



## Ashful

begreen said:


> This virus is going to keep lawyers busy for years.


I think I said that somewhere back in the first three pages of this thread.  But New York and Mass are already leading the way to dismiss or limit the liability of healthcare workers and facilities during this pandemic, either by executive order (Cuomo/NYC) or legislastion (MA Senate bill).


----------



## Medic21

Ashful said:


> I think I said that somewhere back in the first three pages of this thread.  But New York and Mass are already leading the way to dismiss or limit the liability of healthcare workers and facilities during this pandemic, either by executive order (Cuomo/NYC) or legislastion (MA Senate bill).


I don’t know how you can give immunity to companies that acted recklessly.


----------



## WinterinWI

Ashful said:


> I think I said that somewhere back in the first three pages of this thread.  But New York and Mass are already leading the way to dismiss or limit the liability of healthcare workers and facilities during this pandemic, either by executive order (Cuomo/NYC) or legislastion (MA Senate bill).



A number of other states already passed this, including Wisconsin. Wisconsin's version is horrible. Essentially gives immunity to healthcare providers during this period of time for negligence of any kind.









						Wisconsin Expands Immunity For Health Care Providers And Health Care Manufacturers, Distributors & Sellers Amidst COVID-19 | JD Supra
					

On April 15, 2020, Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers signed 2019 WISCONSIN ACT 185, Wisconsin’s COVID-19 relief bill, into law. This legislative...




					www.jdsupra.com


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## moresnow

Medic21 said:


> UPDATE: Public emergency declared as Cass surpasses 1,000 COVID-19 cases
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.pharostribune.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This is what happens when companies do not follow guidelines.


Same exact story here. Tysons will forever be held accountable. Research Tysons Black Hawk County, Iowa.  It was public knowledge that there was a outbreak for a couple weeks before they agreed to close. Massive infection rate increase now.  I've lost any trust I had in our state government. Unbelievable.


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## begreen

Ashful said:


> I think I said that somewhere back in the first three pages of this thread.  But New York and Mass are already leading the way to dismiss or limit the liability of healthcare workers and facilities during this pandemic, either by executive order (Cuomo/NYC) or legislastion (MA Senate bill).


I'm not thinking of caregivers and healthcare workers, I'm thinking of businesses that defied stay at home orders resulting in loss of life.


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## Medic21

WinterinWI said:


> A number of other states already passed this, including Wisconsin. Wisconsin's version is horrible. Essentially gives immunity to healthcare providers during this period of time for negligence of any kind.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Wisconsin Expands Immunity For Health Care Providers And Health Care Manufacturers, Distributors & Sellers Amidst COVID-19 | JD Supra
> 
> 
> On April 15, 2020, Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers signed 2019 WISCONSIN ACT 185, Wisconsin’s COVID-19 relief bill, into law. This legislative...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.jdsupra.com


This is not a free for all.  It’s just like ours.  There is good reason as to why we need this.  Not working cardiac arrests that we normally may have is only one reason.  

The elective procedure thing is huge.  And some procedures while not anywhere life threatening could cause disability if put off.  That’s a big thing to be protected from.  And finally...


That little statement does not give protection for a gross negligence suit.  The three components need to be may as normal.  Failure to act when a duty is there, harm caused, and a direct correlation between the action and harm.


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## Sodbuster

Medic21 said:


> This is not a free for all.  It’s just like ours.  There is good reason as to why we need this.  Not working cardiac arrests that we normally may have is only one reason.
> 
> The elective procedure thing is huge.  And some procedures while not anywhere life threatening could cause disability if put off.  That’s a big thing to be protected from.  And finally...
> View attachment 259742
> 
> That little statement does not give protection for a gross negligence suit.  The three components need to be may as normal.  Failure to act when a duty is there, harm caused, and a direct correlation between the action and harm.



Medic 21, what would you say is your biggest shortage in critical safety equipment?


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## Medic21

Sodbuster said:


> Medic 21, what would you say is your biggest shortage in critical safety equipment?


We just got a huge delivery today of PPE.  Partly because we are now on the states radar having the per capita case load quadrupled of any other county in the state.   We are at 227/10,000 residents.  Closest to us is 47/10000 residents.  

how long it lasts is to be seen.  I’ve had more covid pts today than the last 6 weeks combined but, no real high risk.  As the transfers on ventilators increase we will burn through a lot more.  I will reuse a N95 If the pt can tolerate a mask and its not saturated.  They are still single use to me with aerosolizing procedures like CPAP, BiPAP, neb treatments, or vented.  I was just discussing the ability to decon the rubberized tyvek suits and how to do it with my shift.  In all honesty respiratory and eye protection is what’s needed.  The rest is overkill.


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## Sodbuster

Medic21 said:


> We just got a huge delivery today of PPE.  Partly because we are now on the states radar having the per capita case load quadrupled of any other county in the state.   We are at 227/10,000 residents.  Closest to us is 47/10000 residents.
> 
> how long it lasts is to be seen.  I’ve had more covid pts today than the last 6 weeks combined but, no real high risk.  As the transfers on ventilators increase we will burn through a lot more.  I will reuse a N95 If the pt can tolerate a mask and its not saturated.  They are still single use to me with aerosolizing procedures like CPAP, BiPAP, neb treatments, or vented.  I was just discussing the ability to decon the rubberized tyvek suits and how to do it with my shift.  In all honesty respiratory and eye protection is what’s needed.  The rest is overkill.



Would face shields be considered eye protection?


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## WinterinWI

Medic21 said:


> This is not a free for all. It’s just like ours



It is though. Our hospitals here are largely empty. Any deaths from other causes due to lack of care/procedures due to the the WI state government's 'empty the hospital's' act have no recourse. People die every day from many things, and apparently the only concern at the present time is the 'rona. Hospitals are no doubt very happy with this type of law. They can collect their fed gov't $ for any reported COVID-19 death, and ignore other issues without consequence. Basically encouraging reporting of covid cases. This also feeds into the media agenda of stoking fear by over-reporting death counts (death with covid vs death from covid).

Ashful is right, the lawyers are going to have a field day with this one.


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## mcdougy

Our hospitals restarted elective surgeries last friday. .  Still no talk of business restarts yet. New social programs daily to help workers and companies to encourage less layoffs. Frontline workers (large group encompass) just received a govt 4$ premium plus 250$ a month if your working over 100hrs a month. It like most programs are in place until the end of June. (4months)


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## mcdougy




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## Medic21

Sodbuster said:


> Would face shields be considered eye protection?


They are, I wear glasses under them though.  If for some reason the shield would become obscured I still have something.


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## Medic21

mcdougy said:


> View attachment 259746


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## SpaceBus

WinterinWI said:


> It is though. Our hospitals here are largely empty. Any deaths from other causes due to lack of care/procedures due to the the WI state government's 'empty the hospital's' act have no recourse. People die every day from many things, and apparently the only concern at the present time is the 'rona. Hospitals are no doubt very happy with this type of law. They can collect their fed gov't $ for any reported COVID-19 death, and ignore other issues without consequence. Basically encouraging reporting of covid cases. This also feeds into the media agenda of stoking fear by over-reporting death counts (death with covid vs death from covid).
> 
> Ashful is right, the lawyers are going to have a field day with this one.


I don't think that's what is happening. In fact deaths from all other causes are way down right now while paramedics are removing corpses from folks houses. Those corpses are not able to be tested for coronavirus. Quite the contrary I believe the number of deaths to be vastly underreported, along with confirmed cases. Part of this is due to bad tests of course. Is it really possible to believe this country is going down in cases while other countries like Italy are still going up?

For those that think it's all an over reaction, by all means, please go on about your business, just wear a mask and stay away from all other people.


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## SpaceBus

The fed is definitely lying about unemployment. These attempts to give companies money to keep paying sick leave is just a way to make it look like more folks are working. Most states have unemployment cases waiting by the thousands. In fact Maine has not a single new person on unemployment. The only folks getting unemployment in Maine were the folks getting it before covid 19.


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## Medic21

SpaceBus said:


> The fed is definitely lying about unemployment. These attempts to give companies money to keep paying sick leave is just a way to make it look like more folks are working. Most states have unemployment cases waiting by the thousands. In fact Maine has not a single new person on unemployment. The only folks getting unemployment in Maine were the folks getting it before covid 19.


Just the number of claims in our state alone for unemployment at the extra rate to pay out is 450,000,000 a week.  It’s not sustainable for more than 3 weeks.  I’m interested to see who actually will receive money.


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## MTY

I do not like President Trump.  I think he is a boor, a lout and that anything he does for the military or veterans is based in guilt.  I think he may be a criminal.  I have thought this about him long before he was elected.  I am speaking of him as a man, not as the president, nor of his performance as a president.  That said, the 'orange anus" comment is way over the top as it is directed at him and his performance as POTUS.


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## SpaceBus

MTY said:


> I do not like President Trump.  I think he is a boor, a lout and that anything he does for the military or veterans is based in guilt.  I think he may be a criminal.  I have thought this about him long before he was elected.  I am speaking of him as a man, not as the president, nor of his performance as a president.  That said, the 'orange anus" comment is way over the top as it is directed at him and his performance as POTUS.


I found it to be hilarious, so to each their own. Since Coronavirus season started he has been looking less orange and more "normal"


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## SpaceBus

Medic21 said:


> Just the number of claims in our state alone for unemployment at the extra rate to pay out is 450,000,000 a week.  It’s not sustainable for more than 3 weeks.  I’m interested to see who actually will receive money.


It's not sustainable for everyone in the country to get coronavirus either. While a stagnant economy is horrible, I think the majority of people on this planet catching coronavirus is probably worse given the outcomes so far.


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## mcdougy

Would anyone be interested in renting a garden plot?  I'm wondering how many people are thinking this way? May be a source of income as I realize in suburbia it's not always an option. 100$ a season for a plot 5' x 20' ?


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## festerw

Medic21 said:


> Just the number of claims in our state alone for unemployment at the extra rate to pay out is 450,000,000 a week.  It’s not sustainable for more than 3 weeks.  I’m interested to see who actually will receive money.



My wife filed here in PA on March 23. Still no payment and a lot of folks are in the same boat.


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## mcdougy

festerw said:


> My wife filed here in PA on March 23. Still no payment and a lot of folks are in the same boat.


 That's ridiculous, 3 days here if you apply online, 10 days of done over the phone. How do they expect people to pay their bills?  What do they do if your a month late paying your taxes and such?


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## SpaceBus

mcdougy said:


> That's ridiculous, 3 days here if you apply online, 10 days of done over the phone. How do they expect people to pay their bills?  What do they do if your a month late paying your taxes and such?


This what I learned from being in the US military: the fed is quick to take and slow to give.


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## festerw

mcdougy said:


> That's ridiculous, 3 days here if you apply online, 10 days of done over the phone. How do they expect people to pay their bills?  What do they do if your a month late paying your taxes and such?



A lot of the problem here and other states is that the software running it hasn't been updated in decades and coupled with outdated hardware, it wasn't designed to handle the volume of claims that poured in. Throw in the extra $600/week from the Federal government that's being supplied through the states and it's a mess.


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## SpaceBus

festerw said:


> A lot of the problem here and other states is that the software running it hasn't been updated in decades and coupled with outdated hardware, it wasn't designed to handle the volume of claims that poured in. Throw in the extra $600/week from the Federal government that's being supplied through the states and it's a mess.


Prior to this mess Maine employed like six people to handle unemployment for the whole state.


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## MTY

SpaceBus said:


> I found it to be hilarious, so to each their own. Since Coronavirus season started he has been looking less orange and more "normal"


I too found it hilarious. That does not mean it belongs here.   What I said was that it was over the top.  It was blatantly political and the same type of boorish behavior Trump is famous for.  It was like the pot calling the kettle black.


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## Sawset

SpaceBus said:


> This what I learned from being in the US military: the fed is quick to take and slow to give.


Or with anything else government related: If I owe, they are hot on it, like now, threatening collections. And if they owe, well let's see, maybe in a month or two or hmm, hmm, or three, we're short staffed you know, can't get it out. But can certainly find time to deposit what I send in within the hour, even if I forgot to sign the check, oh don't worry about it.


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## Ashful

SpaceBus said:


> I don't think that's what is happening. In fact deaths from all other causes are way down right now while paramedics are removing corpses from folks houses. Those corpses are not able to be tested for coronavirus. Quite the contrary I believe the number of deaths to be vastly underreported...


Agreed.  I really like the angle taken by the article begreen posted just two or three days ago, comparing reported deaths to our yearly average for the same weeks or months of the year, as one indicator of the true toll of this thing.  But even that is “under-reporting”, as it’s not accounting for the fact that things like traffic fatalities are way down while everyone is under stay at home orders.


SpaceBus said:


> The fed is definitely lying about unemployment. These attempts to give companies money to keep paying sick leave is just a way to make it look like more folks are working.


I agree the result of compensating employers is an under-reporting in the number of people staying at home and not working today, but I think you’re incorrectly assuming the worst motivation, here.  I believe the fed is compensating employers so that they can keep those individuals on staff rather than laying them off, in anticipation that they will be an asset during any hopeful economic recovery.  Remember, the $2T stimulus bill that provides these funds to employers was approved unanimously, by every Republican AND Democrat in the Senate, so your feelings about one part or the other should not influence your opinion of this bill.


MTY said:


> I do not like President Trump.  I think he is a boor, a lout and that anything he does for the military or veterans is based in guilt.  I think he may be a criminal.  I have thought this about him long before he was elected.  I am speaking of him as a man, not as the president, nor of his performance as a president.  That said, the 'orange anus" comment is way over the top as it is directed at him and his performance as POTUS.


My sentiments, exactly.  There’s a lot to dislike on a personal level, his behavior is just embarrassing, but I have a pretty high opinion of his job performance.  I have benefitted very substantially from his election.


mcdougy said:


> That's ridiculous, 3 days here if you apply online, 10 days of done over the phone. How do they expect people to pay their bills?  What do they do if your a month late paying your taxes and such?


... and the amount they pay isn’t exactly going to cover your bills, at 50% of your annual salary and capped around $29k per year, and then taxed at a higher fractional rate because your tax bracket doesn’t necessarily change for the few weeks or months you’re on that low wage.  If you don’t have some savings or a side hustle, you could be in trouble real quick, spending a few months on unemployment in PA.  Better get your side hustle lined up.


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## SpaceBus

Ashful said:


> Agreed.  I really like the angle taken by the article begreen posted just two or three days ago, comparing reported deaths to our yearly average for the same weeks or months of the year, as one indicator of the true toll of this thing.  But even that is “under-reporting”, as it’s not accounting for the fact that things like traffic fatalities are way down while everyone is under stay at home orders.
> 
> I agree the result of compensating employers is an under-reporting in the number of people staying at home and not working today, but I think you’re incorrectly assuming the worst motivation, here.  I believe the fed is compensating employers so that they can keep those individuals on staff rather than laying them off, in anticipation that they will be an asset during any hopeful economic recovery.  Remember, the $2T stimulus bill that provides these funds to employers was approved unanimously, by every Republican AND Democrat in the Senate, so your feelings about one part or the other should not influence your opinion of this bill.
> 
> My sentiments, exactly.  There’s a lot to dislike on a personal level, his behavior is just embarrassing, but I have a pretty high opinion of his job performance.  I have benefitted very substantially from his election.
> 
> ... and the amount they pay isn’t exactly going to cover your bills, at 50% of your annual salary and capped around $29k per year, and then taxed at a higher fractional rate because your tax bracket doesn’t necessarily change for the few weeks or months you’re on that low wage.  If you don’t have some savings or a side hustle, you could be in trouble real quick, spending a few months on unemployment in PA.  Better get your side hustle lined up.


I think both sides are full of crooks and goth stand to gain from keeping people on the payroll regardless of reasons.


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## Medic21

SpaceBus said:


> It's not sustainable for everyone in the country to get coronavirus either. While a stagnant economy is horrible, I think the majority of people on this planet catching coronavirus is probably worse given the outcomes so far.


And thinking everyone would get Covid-19 if things remained open is a ludicrous thought void of any intelligent thought process.


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## PaulOinMA

festerw said:


> … A lot of the problem here and other states is that the software running it hasn't been updated in decades and coupled with outdated hardware …



There was a news story about the company that accepts 3 1/2-inch floppy discs and wipes them clean for the government.  Lots of very old government computers still using them. 

I still have a bunch and was thinking of mailing them to the company.


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## Ashful

PaulOinMA said:


> There was a news story about the company that accepts 3 1/2-inch floppy discs and wipes them clean for the government.  Lots of very old government computers still using them.


Lots of test equipment, too... much of it used by folks working on COVID-19, not just my industry.  When you spend a large fraction of a million dollars specifying, procuring, and configuring a piece of test equipment, you don’t necessarily discard it just because the storage media is a little outdated.  I still deal with 3.5” floppy discs several times per year, and likely will for another ten years.

We still use GPIB, too!


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## PaulOinMA

I did technical writing for submissions to FDA, HPB in Canada, etc.  Used to use lots of little discs to store submissions.

My first position, 1988 - 1990, was writing the chemistry, manufacturing, and controls (CMC) technical sections and environmental assessment reports (EARs).  Didn't even have a computer.  It was a Xerox word processor that used large floppy, really floppy, discs.  The Xerox put out nice heat for my office in the winter.


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## semipro

MTY said:


> I do not like President Trump. I think he is a boor, a lout and that anything he does for the military or veterans is based in guilt. I think he may be a criminal. I have thought this about him long before he was elected. I am speaking of him as a man, not as the president, nor of his performance as a president. That said, the 'orange anus" comment is way over the top as it is directed at him and his performance as POTUS.





Ashful said:


> My sentiments, exactly. There’s a lot to dislike on a personal level, his behavior is just embarrassing, but I have a pretty high opinion of his job performance. *I* have benefitted very substantially from his election.


Given my race, income bracket, profession, sexual orientation, etc.  I'm sure I"ve benefitted much from President 45's performance.  
That said, I'd trade those gains in a sec. to better ensure the future of my children and the economic and environmental sustainability of our civilization.


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## begreen

This thread has wandered too often into the political weeds. My bad, I should have shut it down days ago and missed the orange anus comment. I know it's hard not to get into politics when the deaths and cases from this disease as so high here, but that discussion is meant for another forum on a different site. Time to put a fork into this one.


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