# I wonder...



## SidecarFlip (May 7, 2021)

How the increase in steel prices (up about 250 percent from a year ago, mill price) will impact new stove sales this fall.  That and the apparent shortage of IC chips.  remember, all these units rely in IC's to function.

Milled lumber is positively over the top now.  I needed a couple 2x4's for a project and a visit to the local lumber yard was a real eye opener.  a stick 8 foot long of lumber (2x4, was 10 bucks) and it resembled an airplane propellor.  I left without any wood.

Auto builders are still building vehicles but most aren't complete, they are parked in long rows in various lots, waiting for the electronics that aren't available.

Heavy trucks (the ones that deliver fuel to your local gas station and groceries to your supermarket are dropping by the wayside because repair parts availability is getting tough.

The truck dealership I retired from cannot get repair parts to fix broken trucks, let alone get new ones.  The lead time for a new heavy truck is around a year right now.

Inflation is starting to rear it's ugly head and you, as the end user, being at the rock bottom of the food chain are about to feel the pinch in a thousand ways.

Even Menards who usually has a lumber section in their weekly flyer, it's not there anymore.

Shaping up to be a very bad year for consumers.


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## Lordtimothy200 (May 7, 2021)

I have several projects that need to be done around the property but after visiting Menards and seeing the prices...........not going to happen this year.    There is a lot of money floating around right now and that is going to cause some serious inflation.  

They just went and raised property valuations,  a 200k house 3 years ago is now a 275k valuation.  Once it is raised it never goes back down,  they laugh at you down at the courthouse if you protest it.


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## Dataman (May 7, 2021)

My Taxes went up $800 this year.    I now live in 7-8 Hundred K house Realtor Said.    She was on Drugs.   Pretty sure of it.  I think it's only 600k.    Paid 220k just 10 years ago.   Prices are Crazy for Buying and Renting.


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## ABMax24 (May 7, 2021)

Fuel prices are next on the agenda. Oil is flirting with $65/barrel and the only way it's going to go is up. Wait until the world returns to normal and the economy goes into overdrive to make up for a year of lost production, then combine that with the deliberate efforts of western governments to stifle new oil development. I've been betting on seeing $80-$100/barrel oil by the end of the year, I'm now contemplating if that's low, thinking that $100-$120/barrel oil might be more likely.


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## SidecarFlip (May 7, 2021)

The interesting thing about owning your house is, if you don't pay the taxes on it you get foreclosed on for delinquent taxes so you don't ever own it anyway.  You are just 'renting it'...

Speaking of renting, my renters have actually paid the rent unlike a lot of renters because the 'President' put a moratorium on rent where renters didn't have to pay rent even though the landlords were still on the hook for the mortgage payments and taxes.  That was a 100% crock and I see it's been declared illegal.,

I feel for landlords that had to pay the freight with their renters skating along.

I'm afraid we are in a world of hurt...

Just curious as to how it will relate to stoves and pellets.  I bet pellets go way up as well.  Glad I have a couple years worth in the barn right now.


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## Pete Zahria (May 7, 2021)

*Wait until you see some of the pellet prices...*
*Availability will be the next crap shoot.
*
*Dan*


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## SidecarFlip (May 8, 2021)

At least my corn isn't (I hope)....lol


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## clancey (May 8, 2021)

I think corn will go up because my birdie seed that has corn in it is really up at least at my store...Tell me about how you heat with corn old flip--lol--my humor no negative here...clancey


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## SidecarFlip (May 8, 2021)

We don't feed the birds (and squirrels) except in the winter anyway and out local feed supply store (Tractor Supply) ran out of birdseed in the early spring anyway.

I'm pretty much cost free on corn other than driving one of the farm tractors with a loader down the road to pick it up, it don't cost me anything except diesel and storage at my end, it's off grade non coated seed corn (corn that was supposed to be coated but didn't make the 95% germination threshold so it's not commercially marketable but it's certainly burnable for heat.

I get it on supersacks (2300 pounds each) or in Tyvek sacks, usually in supersacks on skids, which I return to the seed house when empty.

There must be a passel of money to be made in seed corn but I never ask, don't care.  I do know that non GMO seed corn last season was right around 300 bucks per 53 pounds which makes my corn burner the most expensive corn appliance around these parts.

Convenient to have a major producer of seed corn within a mile of me.

Keep in mind that not just any biomass appliance is corn capable.  They must have the correct burn pot as well as a spacious ash drawer because corn produces 10 times the ash of pellets and there must be a convenient way to get the ash from the burn pot to the ash drawer and the stove and vent pipe cleaning is much more frequent than with pellets.  Consequently, there are only a select few stoves that are corn capable plus, the controls have to be corn friendly, because the burn rate on corn is different than on wood pellets.


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## SidecarFlip (May 8, 2021)

I know very little about the forestry business but, if the cost of lumber is any indication of what the cost of wood pellets will be in the fall, we all better be hanging on to our shorts...lol


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## clancey (May 8, 2021)

Thanks and you have a PHD in Corn...and that was interesting--thanks--I am going to do some reading on that--thanks...clancey


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## brenndatomu (May 8, 2021)

This won't affect anything...








						Cyberattack Forces a Shutdown of a Top U.S. Pipeline (Published 2021)
					

The operator, Colonial Pipeline, said it had halted systems for its 5,500 miles of pipeline after being hit by a ransomware attack.




					www.nytimes.com


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## Highbeam (May 8, 2021)

So all of this badness being predicted but really, what are you going to do about it? Postpone lumber projects, yes. Stock up on pellets while you can, sure. Anything else actionable besides bellyaching?

Generators need electronics, are critical infrastructure, and could be short in supply so perhaps have a backup?


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## clancey (May 8, 2021)

All this talk about shortage put action in my gut to where I got a wood stove for a emergency just in case thing go not so good. Now they have a chip shortage and cannot build new cars I read.. But the media is crazy as well and one cannot trust even that no more..Have a nice say everyone and just enjoy this beautiful Sat...rest especially those wood choppers--rest...clancey


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## SidecarFlip (May 9, 2021)

It is what it is.  As Americans we will all survive as it's just a 'bump on the road of life'.

I'm sure none of us will freeze to death next winter (at least if we can help it).


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## clancey (May 9, 2021)

If I do not learn how to light my wood stove I might,,,lol  clancey


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## SidecarFlip (May 9, 2021)

Just heard on the radio in the shop that the pipeline shutdown won't impact fuel deliveries in the NE (so long as it don't continue too long (whatever that means). Also heard that Lumberg stated that the average price of gasoline is now at $3.05 a gallon.


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## clancey (May 9, 2021)

The news is terrible and I just feel "something"is coming in my gut and  that might not mean anything because there have  been false alarms before. Those gas prices are really moving up and that affects a whole bunch of things especially trucking items around the nation. I spent a h---  of a lot of money just having this feeling and now since I have that extra something to keep warm in the winter I just feel better having now a piece of mind. So we will just adjust our lives and if we feel we must get ready for something do it and even if we did not have to do it that extra sense of security is well worth it especially if you have families. That's how I look at all of this anyway...clancey


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## bholler (May 9, 2021)

And $3.05 is far cheaper than most of the rest of the world.


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## Highbeam (May 9, 2021)

bholler said:


> And $3.05 is far cheaper than most of the rest of the world.



The actual price means nearly nothing. It’s the percent increase and how that effects the prices of everything else that I think matters more.

I track expenses and actual fuel cost for my “fleet” is a drop in the bucket.


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## ABMax24 (May 9, 2021)

bholler said:


> And $3.05 is far cheaper than most of the rest of the world.



No kidding. I'm in Fort Nelson BC right now, gasoline is $4.24 US/gallon here. I'm heading to Whitehorse Yukon tomorrow, I'll see what it is up there, I wouldn't be surprised if it's over $5.

This is just the beginning, the green revolution is afoot. Western governments aren't going to come to the rescue when oil prices spike, because high fossil fuel prices will hasten the transition to renewables.

I hope everyone took note of Covid pricing on gasoline, propane, diesel, and natural gas. We will never experience such cheap energy prices again.


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## MalcolmH (May 11, 2021)

Ya we pay $ 5/US GAL here in Onterrible, lumber is insane, timber is still low so pellet prices should be stable although consumers pay a direct carbon tax on pellets to heat our homes so we hit $8/40Lb bag, aswell as Carbon tax on any other fuel of any kind to heat our houses 7 months a year.  The Carbon tax on all the big businesses got added to everything we buy as consumers, so basically designed inflation, great for big businesses as there revenue and investors value just went up and they didn't have to lift a finger.  All so Canada can fight 0.041% C02 of the worlds total Carbon in the atmosphere which we contribute about 2% of by sin-taxing the citizens in the name of carbon.  Ya I'd say we're in trouble to put it nicely, and throw in rolling lockdowns, many are going to go without.  Our Countries Leader is insane.


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## bogieb (May 11, 2021)

SidecarFlip said:


> Just heard on the radio in the shop that the pipeline shutdown won't impact fuel deliveries in the NE (so long as it don't continue too long (whatever that means). Also heard that Lumberg stated that the average price of gasoline is now at $3.05 a gallon.



Local news said 3 days of shutdown before impact is felt. Boy am I glad I am no longer driving to work (100 mile round trip)!


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## clancey (May 11, 2021)

Full agreement and our countries are in deep trouble and I wonder if more is coming--of course it is...clancey


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## SidecarFlip (May 11, 2021)

Being retired, I don't drive much anyway but I do 'drive' my tractors a lot and they consume many, many gallons of diesel.  least it's no road tax (offroad red dyed diesel) but the price is heading north (like everything else is.  Pre bought 500 gallons late last winter at $1.95 a gallon.  I see it's at  $2.90 a gallon and climbing.  I agree, fuel prices are lower here that elsewhere in the world but considering what reserves we have, they should be.  Problem is, this current administration wants us to be paying what they do in Europe and that will have a detrimental ripple effect on you going to the market as everything will cost more, way more.  Of course the government is good with that because as the cost of living increases, so do the taxes on those products and those taxes support the central government.


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## coachk (May 11, 2021)

SidecarFlip-Isn't the diesel you use for your farm a business expense?


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## brenndatomu (May 11, 2021)

coachk said:


> business expense


Should be, but...
Expense: the opposite of profit.


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## clancey (May 11, 2021)

You got a point there..lol clancey


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## coachk (May 11, 2021)

but it's not.  If you are able to deduct your business expenses, how is it the opposite of profit?


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## clancey (May 11, 2021)

I think anytime you have a expense it takes away from the profit that you could have in your pocket now and be using that now when the prices might be lower than at the end of the year. Even declaring something with business at the end of the year do not you have to group that with a lot of other expenses and wait the whole year to get the money in your pocket.. I rather have mine "Now"...clancey


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## coachk (May 11, 2021)

clancey said:


> I think anytime you have a expense it takes away from the profit that you could have in your pocket now and be using that now when the prices might be lower than at the end of the year. Even declaring something with business at the end of the year do not you have to group that with a lot of other expenses and wait the whole year to get the money in your pocket.. I rather have mine "Now"...clancey


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## coachk (May 11, 2021)

clancey, I don't blame you


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## clancey (May 11, 2021)

Ha Ha Ha Now we will see what we have back next year---a long wait....enjoyed...clancey


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## SidecarFlip (May 11, 2021)

coachk said:


> SidecarFlip-Isn't the diesel you use for your farm a business expense?


Absolutely, but I still have to pay for it up front and while it's a business expense like everything else farm related, we don't get a 100% return at the end of the year.  All depends on what tax bracket we fall into, so yes, I may spend a grand on diesel but in reality I only get back a percentage of it.  Think last year we got back about 750 bucks in fuel usage.  Under Biden's proposed tax overhaul we will get even less back

I write off everything farm related, fuel, lubricants, filters, fertilizer, seed,  everything.

Keep in mind that with rising fuel costs, what I pay up front on fuel and fertilizer (because it's also market driven, I have to pay for up front.  Last year I was paying 10 bucks a bag for 46% granulated Urea.  This year it's 19 bucks a bag.


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## SidecarFlip (May 11, 2021)

clancey said:


> I think anytime you have a expense it takes away from the profit that you could have in your pocket now and be using that now when the prices might be lower than at the end of the year. Even declaring something with business at the end of the year do not you have to group that with a lot of other expenses and wait the whole year to get the money in your pocket.. *I rather have mine "Now*"...clancey



Don't work that way when in business.  You always wait until year's end.  Like a crapshoot in a way.


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## clancey (May 11, 2021)

Its all a crapshoot...ugh  clancey


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## coachk (May 11, 2021)

SidecarFlip-  I find with my personal consulting business that I'm holding my breath till my taxes are done -and I've been doing it for 20 years.  People don't realize the extra taxes thay you have to pay when self employed especially if it's under a certain threshhold


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## brenndatomu (May 11, 2021)

coachk said:


> but it's not.  If you are able to deduct your business expenses, how is it the opposite of profit?


If your crop sells for $100,000, and you had $100,000 expenses for the year...$0 profit. Fuel costs can be a major expense for many farming operations, so when fuel goes up even $1/gallon, that can easily be the difference in turning a profit, or not.


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## moresnow (May 11, 2021)

I wish everyone had to start/own a business for at least 5 years. A new business that you start with your own funds/borrowed funds and successfully maintain for the above mentioned 5 years minimum. 

 That little nugget of life experience would certainly change most folks opinions of business ownership and tax law tremendously.......


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## clancey (May 12, 2021)

Wonderful idea better than a education for business..real life experience...Yes..clancey


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## brenndatomu (May 12, 2021)

SidecarFlip said:


> we don't get a 100% return at the end of the year. All depends on what tax bracket we fall into,


Exactly...I always laugh when these "financial experts" say to not pay your mortgage off because you can deduct the interest...yeah, part of it! I tell people that believe, that I will make them a better offer...instead of giving you back 25% or so, like the IRS is doing when you deduct mortgage interest, instead you pay me a dollar and I'll give you 50% back!  No takers yet...


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## Dataman (May 12, 2021)

U can't deduct your Mortgage Interest unless you don't take the standard deduction.    Only once in my life I was able to do that.  You can’t *deduct* home *mortgage* *interest* unless the following conditions are met. You file Form 1040 or 1040-SR and itemize *deductions* on Schedule A (Form 1040).


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## brenndatomu (May 12, 2021)

Dataman said:


> U can't deduct your Mortgage Interest unless you don't take the standard deduction.    Only once in my life I was able to do that.


I know things have changed the last couple years, but prior to that I was always able to deduct it...not sure how it all pans out now...that's what I pay my tax guy for...


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## clancey (May 12, 2021)

Yea to deduct it you need to file a long form and that costs more money plus you need to have a certain amount of interest that you are paying in order to deduct it--rip off's--I say work on paying your homes off..clancey


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## FirepotPete (May 12, 2021)

Dataman said:


> U can't deduct your Mortgage Interest unless you don't take the standard deduction.    Only once in my life I was able to do that.  You can’t *deduct* home *mortgage* *interest* unless the following conditions are met. You file Form 1040 or 1040-SR and itemize *deductions* on Schedule A (Form 1040).


I was able to deduct my home mortgage for 20 years by itemizing. Once the kids turned 18 that all changed. Prior to that with them as deductions, medical, work deductions for tools, required safety clothing, ppe, travel, food, lodging, required licensing and continued education, it all added up.
One big mistake people do when deducting travel, food and lodging is itemizing it all. If you can prove you worked away from home at a certain place for under a year, most of the time you are better off taking the GSA per diem rates than to itemize them all.
Example: working in Rockford, Il. Allowed lodging was around $80.00 per day, $560 per week. I payed $350.00 per week for an extended stay room with full kitchen. I took the allowed per diem rate of $560. Then add in that the food allowance was around $75.00 per day, $525.00 per week. I had the full kitchen in my room. For $75.00, or one days allowance I could fill my fridge with decent food and was good for a week and took the allowed per diem instead of itemizing everything.
Every city/area is different and sometimes you are better off itemizing, but I found that around 90% of the time that wasn't the case. And the time it saves with not having to save every little receipt for everything you spend is worth the time saved.


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## Highbeam (May 12, 2021)

The more common, and better, argument for not paying off your mortgage is that you can do better with that money invested. Mortgage rates have been under 3% for years, all time average stock market returns are triple that. 

Another argument is that due to inflation, your mortgage payment gets cheaper every year.

Myself, I don’t like owing people anything and having been through a couple of recessions am happy to recognize that some things are more important than maximum earnings.


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## brenndatomu (May 12, 2021)

Highbeam said:


> Myself, I don’t like owing people anything and having been through a couple of recessions am happy to recognize that some things are more important than maximum earnings.


Yes!
Not owing anyone anything gives a special kind of sleep!


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## moresnow (May 12, 2021)

My antique train of thought is this. Any debt is BAD debt. Financial wizards/advisors be damned I say 

To each there own but thinking/believing that carrying some debt is healthy is simply a reflection of our current discombobulated state of the union. Our forefathers are gnashing there teeth from beyond.........


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## tlc1976 (May 12, 2021)

The sooner I can get rid of a mortgage payment, the better. Then what I was paying could go towards building savings fast. To pay off my mortgage in half the time requires less than double my payment. So in the end I’m ahead. Also if the house is paid off, I could benefit greatly from a reverse mortgage if I chose to do so. If I just paid the minimum, I’d still be making mortgage payments in my 70s. No thanks.


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## Highbeam (May 12, 2021)

tlc1976 said:


> The sooner I can get rid of a mortgage payment, the better. Then what I was paying could go towards building savings fast. To pay off my mortgage in half the time requires less than double my payment. So in the end I’m ahead. Also if the house is paid off, I could benefit greatly from a reverse mortgage if I chose to do so. If I just paid the minimum, I’d still be making mortgage payments in my 70s. No thanks.



Don’t do it that way. Save up a house payoff fund, invested earning money, until it’s large enough to pay the mortgage off in one shot. There are so many reasons that it’s better but again, having lived through recessions, you can make payments from the payoff fund and it’s actually earning you lots of money as it grows. 

After mortgage payoff your cash flow situation improves.


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## SidecarFlip (May 13, 2021)

Problem is and I believe I've said it before, is, you never REALLY own your home or ground.  If you don't pay the real estate taxes every year, the local taxing district will relieve you of it, sell it at public auction and if that auction don't realize enough return to cover the delinquent taxes, you are still on the hook for the balance, so you never own your place outright.  The Gummit always has it's fingers in your till.


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## clancey (May 13, 2021)

So many different ways of looking at it...I say "pay it off" and "pay your taxes" and if they are too high--move to a cheaper place.. Furthermore you are not forced to buy expensive insurance if you do not want to and you could save on that but its the peace of mind and the accomplishment especially if you never had a house to live and grew up living from rooms to apartments and never had a place to call your own----pay it off..I say...clancey


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## SidecarFlip (May 13, 2021)

Keep in mind that a requirement of a mortgage loan is carrying homeowners insurance for the value of the dwelling and naming the lien holder as the loss payee on the policy.

No insurance, no home and if you had it when you bought the home and dropped it. you become 100% liable for any loss to the lender.


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## Highbeam (May 14, 2021)

SidecarFlip said:


> Keep in mind that a requirement of a mortgage loan is carrying homeowners insurance for the value of the dwelling and naming the lien holder as the loss payee on the policy.
> 
> No insurance, no home and if you had it when you bought the home and dropped it. you become 100% liable for any loss to the lender.



The point he was making is that homeowners insurance is optional after you own the home. It would be foolish to not buy it though since it covers so much more than the house. Think liability.


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## SidecarFlip (May 14, 2021)

That is correct but very foolish.  Who wants to suffer the loss of a home with no reciurse.


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## Lordtimothy200 (May 14, 2021)

Even if you pay your taxes there is no guarantee you will keep your property.  Eminent domain.  It is what it is.  All about balance,  No laws, bad,  too many laws also bad.  There is always winners and losers.   In the end I like to think having a corn/pellet stove is a good way of being flexible for any future price shocks.


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## clancey (May 15, 2021)

I think your on the right track here LordTim200 and there are so very bad laws out there that the people have really no control over at all and one example is eminent domain and believe me this can change a persons life "overnight"...My difficulty now is this 5 G that they snuck in the new street light poles and I thought it was just street repair and water pipes in the street--wow --now instead of quiet I get a constant buzzing and there is nothing that I can do about this..This is the sound that I hear only a bit lower but its here--no more quiet for me and I am depressed about this so ones life can change overnight..








						Mysterious hum driving people crazy around the world
					






					www.nbcnews.com


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## tlc1976 (May 15, 2021)

clancey said:


> I think your on the right track here LordTim200 and there are so very bad laws out there that the people have really no control over at all and one example is eminent domain and believe me this can change a persons life "overnight"...My difficulty now is this 5 G that they snuck in the new street light poles and I thought it was just street repair and water pipes in the street--wow --now instead of quiet I get a constant buzzing and there is nothing that I can do about this..This is the sound that I hear only a bit lower but its here--no more quiet for me and I am depressed about this so ones life can change overnight..
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Wrong link? This one has nothing to do with 5G or internet in general, as it has been reported since the 70s.


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## clancey (May 15, 2021)

Wrong link or not that's what it sounds like 24 hours a day but with a lower hum and if you go on and look up 5 G and problems there are plenty of them and many people are complaining about all kinds of things.. For one thing since this thing has been in about a 1/2 house away but they dug out front of my house my throat in the morning is actually closed up with a extreme amount of dryness as well as my eye lids and it takes me awhile to rinse in water and open them as well as other things that I have noticed and it continues to sleep patterns and energy too...It does affect a lot of things but the noise is terrible and grating and vibrating so take it from the horses mouth here wrong link or not for that's what it sounds like and this is a terrible situation, now they are talking about 6 G--new world coming and i am doing the best that I can with this annoying hum...clancey


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