# Hurricane Harvey



## HisTreeNut (Aug 26, 2017)

Hey...
I know we have members in Texas.  Hoping and praying you all are doing well if you are are in the path or area of the hurricane.  
News stories looks as if it folks got hit pretty hard.


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## begreen (Aug 27, 2017)

It was a strong storm for the gulf coast and now the rains are really piling up. Saw one intersection in Houston that was under 17' of water! Hope folks are on high ground to wait this one out. Houston appears to be shut down. 
http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/08/the-flooding-in-houston-is-absolutely-devastating/


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## maple1 (Aug 28, 2017)

Wifes cousin is in Houston. Just moved there late Spring, and had their first child 2 weeks ago. Last report was they were on somewhat higher ground so still dry, but no power. That was a couple days ago now though - all family here is kind of waiting anxiously for more news.


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## Seasoned Oak (Aug 28, 2017)

50 inches of rain is just crazy. But any hurricane that is trapped between 2 high pressure fronts will just sit and churn up rain until it completely dissipates.  Not the usual weather pattern.


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## vinny11950 (Aug 30, 2017)

The flooding is just crazy.  I feel bad for the people there.  My sister's house flooded during Sandy and it took them like 8 months to fix it and move back in.  I remember going over after the flood and it was a mess.  Mosquitoes everywhere, swarming on you as soon as you get out of your car.  There were no supplies, everyone was fighting with the insurance companies, submitting paperwork, waiting for insurance money.  Then when she got the insurance money to rebuild, there was a shortage of qualified construction workers.

I saw one early estimate for Harvey of a recovery bill of around $160 billion.  I believe it.


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## begreen (Aug 30, 2017)

Houston is built on a bayou. Rampant unregulated growth has paved over and sealed natural drainage passages and prevented the land from absorbing moisture. This now extends to the prairie west of Houston. I was speaking with a geologist that used to live in that area and he just shook his head. He and other scientists and engineers have been warning about unregulated building practices leading up to a horrible flooding event like this for years. Their warnings fell on deaf ears in the 'don't regulate me' environment prevalent in Texas.


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## Seasoned Oak (Aug 30, 2017)

Future home rebuilding permits should mandate x many feet above sea level for the living space plus pass hurricane wind specs. The insurance companies would be wise to impliment restrictions as well.


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## Seasoned Oak (Aug 30, 2017)

Gas around here just jumped 20C a gallon ,were not even on the pipeline that was affected.


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## begreen (Aug 30, 2017)

This interactive presentation is from a year ago. It points out what would happen when Houston is hit by a perfect storm. 
https://projects.propublica.org/houston/
The Seattle/Tacoma area is just as unprepared for a major earthquake. It could happen in a hundred years or it could happen tomorrow. Civic leaders take note.


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## Seasoned Oak (Aug 30, 2017)

Couldnt get much worse for houston, most hurricanes keep moving ,this one just stayed put, like a conveyor belt pumping trillions of gallons of water into the houston area day after day.


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## begreen (Aug 30, 2017)

I suspect the extent of problems is just beginning to surface. Chemical leaks, plant emissions damage, even huge tank lids sinking have been noted.
http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a57267/houston-harvey-chemical-leak/


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## sportbikerider78 (Aug 31, 2017)

begreen said:


> Houston is built on a bayou. Rampant unregulated growth has paved over and sealed natural drainage passages and prevented the land from absorbing moisture. This now extends to the prairie west of Houston. I was speaking with a geologist that used to live in that area and he just shook his head. He and other scientists and engineers have been warning about unregulated building practices leading up to a horrible flooding event like this for years. Their warnings fell on deaf ears in the 'don't regulate me' environment prevalent in Texas.


Dude..its a total freak storm!  5 feet of water isn't getting absorbed into any soil anywhere...especially on a bayou.

I heard some pretty crazy stories about roads being unpassable even after the waters disappear.  The water destroying infrastructure.


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## begreen (Aug 31, 2017)

sportbikerider78 said:


> Dude..its a total freak storm!  5 feet of water isn't getting absorbed into any soil anywhere...especially on a bayou.


No doubt that it is a serious storm. Also no doubt that there will be more like it. There are plenty of ways to mitigate the impact so that the damage is less. These lessons have been learned elsewhere and have been brought up repeatedly to Houston area planners.  Problem is that prevention is expensive and can impact development. We have the same issue in the Pac NW. A large earthquake is due yet the cities are woefully underprepared.


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## Seasoned Oak (Aug 31, 2017)

Probably a lot  of these homes will never be rebuilt.  Pretty hard to plan for 50 inches of rain in the flatland.


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## begreen (Aug 31, 2017)

True, but there are better ways to plan for storm surge protection, more rapid drainage, to allocate prairie for absorption and to plan infrastructure so that it doesn't become a river conduit and to protect hazardous storage. Hurricanes are inevitable and frequent in this region and there have been recent close calls that were warnings. Perhaps with this event Houston will start listening to the Army Corp of Engineers. This is from over a year ago, but very relevant today.
https://www.texastribune.org/hell-and-high-water/

Like sportbiker said, this was a mega-event. There will be more. It's why the Dutch build for the 10,000yr storm, not a 500yr storm. There have been too many of them lately.


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## vinny11950 (Aug 31, 2017)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Probably a lot  of these homes will never be rebuilt.  Pretty hard to plan for 50 inches of rain in the flatland.



After Sandy, the rebuilt homes got lifted according to FEMA flood maps.  Not every house that was damaged got lifted but many did.  I think it had to do with the amount of damage and location.  It brought up the age old argument of subsidizing people to build in flood locations.  Why should people pay other people to live in dangerous areas?

We could play this game forever, singling out different regions around the country that are at high risk of one disaster or another.  San Francisco comes to mind for earthquake risk.  Even New Orleans was flooding again recently after heavy rains overwhelmed their flood system.  Looks like Houston is going to have to plan for this from now on.


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## begreen (Aug 31, 2017)

In the midst of all this disaster and tragedy there are some wonderful stories of people pulling together and helping each other. The rescue and firefighting efforts are heroic stories of the best in this country.


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## Seasoned Oak (Aug 31, 2017)

From what iv read a lot of homes in New Oleans were never rebuilt. Im sure it will get harder and more expensive to insure these coastal homes in  the future.  Probably not such a good idea to build homes below sea level next to the ocean in hurricane prone areas.


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## Doug MacIVER (Sep 1, 2017)

Once, shame on you. Twice shame on me! Three, four, five,--------- ,stop this is stupid! here is the history. https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/houston-flood-history-may2015-allison

Of note, 1979, 43 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS!

Not a wish here, pretty obvious it is going to happen again. long way to go this hurricane season which peaks Sept 10th.


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## HisTreeNut (Sep 1, 2017)

I would have to agree with begreen.  I think if you looked at most cities disaster plans, you will find them to be wholly unprepared for a major event of any kind.


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## vinny11950 (Sep 1, 2017)

This is pretty outrageous.  Arkema is refusing to provide a list of inventory and facilities map to a chemical plant in Houston area that could have more explosions.  I hope they change course quickly.

http://www.chron.com/news/houston-t...tracks-refuses-to-provide-public-12167110.php


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## begreen (Sep 1, 2017)

Doug MacIVER said:


> Once, shame on you. Twice shame on me! Three, four, five,--------- ,stop this is stupid! here is the history. https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/houston-flood-history-may2015-allison
> 
> Of note, 1979, 43 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS!
> 
> Not a wish here, pretty obvious it is going to happen again. long way to go this hurricane season which peaks Sept 10th.


This is the third "500 yr. storm" in this area in as many years. As the Gulf continues to warm up, there will be more.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/28/climate-change-hurricane-harvey-215547


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## Easy Livin’ 3000 (Sep 1, 2017)

begreen said:


> This is the third "500 yr. storm" in this area in as many years. As the Gulf continues to warm up, there will be more.
> http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/28/climate-change-hurricane-harvey-215547


We are making America great again!


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## begreen (Sep 1, 2017)

This is a global issue. Typhoons are getting stronger. At present there are major flooding events in many locations.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 1, 2017)

Doesnt matter where you are on the whole global warming thing , i dont see any scenario that stops the warming so were just going to have to prepare for it or suffer the consequences. I keep hearing rebuild rebuild ,but  better bebuild higher and stronger or its just a waste.


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## Doug MacIVER (Sep 1, 2017)

begreen said:


> This is a global issue. Typhoons are getting stronger. At present there are major flooding events in many locations.


I assume you mean tropical cyclones worldwide, not just west of the dateline. two interesting charts. first is ACE '70 to present, then this years activity





certainly no increase in strength shown here, extremely stable for. 37 years. from a tweet by Dr Ryan"
I've kept track of global accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) & PDI since 2005. Yet to see a significant climate change signal in global sense. "


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## Easy Livin’ 3000 (Sep 1, 2017)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Doesnt matter where you are on the whole global warming thing , i dont see any scenario that stops the warming so were just going to have to prepare for it or suffer the consequences. I keep hearing rebuild rebuild ,but  better bebuild higher and stronger or its just a waste.


Totally agree, insurance companies and governments are in the best position to help move this along. Don't insure people who live in high risk areas and spread the cost among those of us that don't live on flood plains.


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## begreen (Sep 1, 2017)

Doug MacIVER said:


> I assume you mean tropical cyclones worldwide, not just west of the dateline. two interesting charts. first is ACE '70 to present, then this years activity
> 
> certainly no increase in strength shown here, extremely stable for. 37 years. from a tweet by Dr Ryan"
> I've kept track of global accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) & PDI since 2005. Yet to see a significant climate change signal in global sense. "


Yes, the models seem to show less cyclones, but more cat 4&5 storms. You probably have read this paper too.
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/309/5742/1844.full
Warmer waters have the potential to deliver more moisture which is not really in these charts.


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## Doug MacIVER (Sep 1, 2017)

begreen said:


> Yes, the models seem to show less cyclones, but more cat 4&5 storms. You probably have read this paper too.
> http://science.sciencemag.org/content/309/5742/1844.full
> Warmer waters have the potential to deliver more moisture which is not really in these charts.


I've read it now, thanks. well know facts. we all know what happens to hurricane on  your coast. raging  cabo howler and if it could get to San Diego a windy rain storm. I'll quote Maue again,"Sea-surface temperatures near Bahamas increase to over 29°C sufficient for intense hurricanes including Category 4 or 5.  Irma will tap ".
 the stats are derived in reality by sst. tropical cyclone rarely exist in sst temp 26*c, lower than that and it's Sandy, ex-trop.  cyclones are warm core storms drawing heat from water  through it eye and a lone non frontal entity, ex trops cold core frt. connected .
seasoak described perfectly with Harvey being blocked, training thunder storm on a stalled cold frt, 36" of snow instead of 6-8" when a high blocks our north easters ect. point here is you could have  this in January if the pattern allowed.


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## Doug MacIVER (Sep 1, 2017)

from Klotzbach, CO. ST."Irma now has max winds of 120 mph - the strongest September hurricane in the tropical Atlantic (<23.5°N, 60-20°W) since Julia (2010). " This weekend the science articles will push the connect" two major storms in last several weeks". It's been there and will again. bet not one of them will mention the activity of the 1930-1960 era. co2 some 70-100 pys lower. and oh, nobody is even talkin bout Jose, rt behind Irma.
just for fun, I hope not , shades of "38 18z gfs


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## begreen (Sep 2, 2017)




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## Doug MacIVER (Sep 2, 2017)

begreen said:


>




Whole bunch of folks commented on the arctic jet stream question last week.  yes mostly on my side of the agw question and their thoughts on that it causes everything going on in climate and weather.
 this is three years old but a lot of folks still adhere to its idea. this from a co-author ipcc srex 


then there is this little tidbit. 4 year old.


 just a few more thoughts, this   current situation seems  to forget our storm history. if you haven't read about the '35 Keys disaster it is great story on the quickly exploding storm. like Andrew one day to cat 5.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 2, 2017)

So now the gulf area and other coastal areas have a new benchmark to work from . Build to a certain windspeed and 50 inches of rain.  Im  sure the insurance companies will weigh in on this.


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## Doug MacIVER (Sep 2, 2017)

the latest model runs aren't any fun. keep in mind these are models. have read that it is several days to forecast. latest has the Delmarva in the bulls eye. if that comes to pass we have ultra major major disaster #2. link to multifaceted site  http://spaghettimodels.com/


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 3, 2017)

Heard on the houston coverage that 65% of the flooded homes in Houston will NOT be rebuilt . Im wondering what the criteria is for that assumption ,no insurance so no financial means  ,flood zone limitations , code changes ect or possibly all of the above.


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## vinny11950 (Sep 3, 2017)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Heard on the houston coverage that 65% of the flooded homes in Houston will NOT be rebuilt . Im wondering what the criteria is for that assumption ,no insurance so no financial means  ,flood zone limitations , code changes ect or possibly all of the above.



So far, Texas governor is not going to call for a special session of the state legislature.  They are next scheduled to meet in Jan. 2019.  Maybe now would be a good time to hold public hearings by the state legislature on how to spend relief money, what codes could  be changed, how to use the $10 billion rainy day fund Texas has stashed away (you know, for a rainy day - but wait, why use that money when the federal gov't will give us $150 billion for storm relief), or just have oversight on what is being done to assure no abuses are going on.  You know, what legislatures should do.


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## Doug MacIVER (Sep 3, 2017)

vinny11950 said:


> So far, Texas governor is not going to call for a special session of the state legislature.  They are next scheduled to meet in Jan. 2019.  Maybe now would be a good time to hold public hearings by the state legislature on how to spend relief money, what codes could  be changed, how to use the $10 billion rainy day fund Texas has stashed away (you know, for a rainy day - but wait, why use that money when the federal gov't will give us $150 billion for storm relief), or just have oversight on what is being done to assure no abuses are going on.  You know, what legislatures should do.


the Tx legs only meet like 150 days over two years. don't know what their laws are are . agree seems like they should be active, maybe that it all falls on the gov's office


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## Doug MacIVER (Sep 3, 2017)

begreen said:


>



I know from previous posts that Bastardi is not held in much regard here, but I thought his tweats this am made some good points.. hope they will translate well in this form,
#1 3 waves, 1 produced Harvey but waited till late to really crank another, classic track, but no development ( 92L)  and now, Irma

#2  So, AGW had nothing to do with Harvey till last 3 days of path,nothing  do with 92L, then picked Irma to enhance.. You cant be serious

#3Its as if they believe there is a magic co2 fairy that will enhance one system leave others alone.. If it gets enhanced its AGW if not, no

key is point #three, every storm should be exploding. Harvey isn't stuck in trop trough for 5 days, disaster but not what it became.



 latest MODEL, AGAIN MODEL, looks alot like hugo but north,. visited area two weeks after , amazed! hugo was 1989!, could be the same, 2017?


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## WoodyIsGoody (Sep 3, 2017)

The amount of denial here that AGW is a major contributor to super storms is deeply disturbing.

Multi-decade climate fluctuations are used by these cretins to suggest what we are experiencing now is just coincidental!


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## Doug MacIVER (Sep 3, 2017)

WoodyIsGoody said:


> The amount of denial here that AGW is a major contributor to super storms is deeply disturbing.
> 
> Multi-decade climate fluctuations are used by these cretins to suggest what we are experiencing now is just coincidental!


no denial climate change, agw has questions here. today we have so many tools that we can name a storm in mid any ocean in the world others times did not have those tools, hence we now have more storm with more accurate rankings . I'll throw out one year 1886! does that explain agw? you may want to notice ) no fish storms in mid-atl? wonder why that is.


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## Doug MacIVER (Sep 4, 2017)

Multi-decade climate fluctuations are used by these cretins to suggest what we are experiencing now is just coincidental!

I guess your talkin this stuff?
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/09...nergy-and-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillations/


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## vinny11950 (Sep 5, 2017)

The forecast paths for Irma are looking brutal for Florida.  Hopefully this thing will veer off up the Atlantic.


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## Doug MacIVER (Sep 5, 2017)

vinny11950 said:


> The forecast paths for Irma are looking brutal for Florida.  Hopefully this thing will veer off up the Atlantic.


twin of '35, agree if only!http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/sfl-1935-hurricane-story.html
120 hr. position from NHC
https://www.bing.com/maps?osid=4bfe...4.450015~-81.63739&lvl=9&v=2&sV=2&form=S00027


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## sportbikerider78 (Sep 6, 2017)

WoodyIsGoody said:


> The amount of denial here that AGW is a major contributor to super storms is deeply disturbing.
> 
> Multi-decade climate fluctuations are used by these cretins to suggest what we are experiencing now is just coincidental!



So, you're saying with certainty that a 400-600 yr storm would absolutely never have happened if fossil fuels were never discovered?  Because, that's the topic here.  
Freak storms didn't happen before the burning of fossil fuels?  Interesting.  

If denying that logic makes me a cretin, sign me up.


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## vinny11950 (Sep 6, 2017)

I will say, Irma looks powerful.  185 mph sustained winds. Gusts of 225.  The small islands are getting hammered.


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## begreen (Sep 7, 2017)

Um, I thought the topic here was Harvey. I've been away but have now been reading about some great stories of generosity and then some about the not so good side of people. Wondering how the recovery is going and the containment of pollution from flooded toxic waste sites.  Word is that some landlords are still requiring Sept. rent payments for homes that are destroyed from people that are left with nothing.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 7, 2017)

begreen said:


> Word is that some landlords are still requiring Sept. rent payments for homes that are destroyed from people that are left with nothing.


Only the Govt can (legally) take your money while providing nothing in return. Landlords always get a bad rap. In my experience there are 100 bad tenants for every bad landlord.  Tenants need renters insurance on their personal belongings. They often think the landlord takes care of everything ,and have no insurance. Your personal mileage may vary.


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## Lake Girl (Sep 7, 2017)

Guess no one caught sight of this gem on federal emergency funds... http://globalnews.ca/news/3708482/donald-trump-emergency-aid-harvey/


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 8, 2017)

Should be privatizing the rebuilding to a  certain extent. Private companies and citizens will certainly not risk their own money on weak structures below historic flood levels,  knowing the future likelihood of stronger storms and flooding.  The Govt always waste money in everything they do.  Hard to name anything done by Govt that comes in under budget and ahead of schedule.


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## vinny11950 (Sep 8, 2017)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Should be privatizing the rebuilding to a  certain extent. Private companies and citizens will certainly not risk their own money on weak structures below historic flood levels,  knowing the future likelihood of stronger storms and flooding.  The Govt always waste money in everything they do.  Hard to name anything done by Govt that comes in under budget and ahead of schedule.



Agree with this partly.  If local governments refuse to zone and pass building codes that protect against a certain level of flooding and hurricane winds, then make the developers and builders keep some of their profits in escrow so that buyers can clawback some of the home payment for bad planning and construction.  If developers can build in danger zones and not engineer the homes to withstand the natural threats, then give the buyers a recourse to get some money back.  Builders and developers build as cheaply as possible and then walk away once the building is sold, leaving the owner to deal with the bad planning.  Why should I subsidize the profits of a developer that built cheap homes on flood zones knowing full well they will never have to deal with the flooding because they sold the homes long ago?  Or the buyers who bought the homes and didn't look at the flood maps?

If congress is going to pass this huge relief bill for Harvey (they should), at least require better building codes and better zone planning to limit the damage in the future.  

From an article by *Paul Craig Roberts*

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2017/04/25/looting-machine-called-capitalism/

_"I have come to the conclusion that capitalism is successful primarily because it can impose the majority of the costs associated with its economic activities on outside parties and on the environment. In other words, capitalists make profits because their costs are externalized and born by others. In the US, society and the environment have to pick up the tab produced by capitalist activity" _


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 8, 2017)

Some of the oversight will come from insurance companies who will no longer insure substandard homes knowing they will have to pick up the tab for storm damage. The govt picking up the tab is a whole different world. Always easy to spend someone elses money at no risk to your own. I assume the Govt would have a role in rebuilding storm proof infrastructure , not so much in private business and homes.


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## vinny11950 (Sep 8, 2017)

Also, the Texas congressional delegation is going to have to take a lot of "pork" in the relief bill to get other states to vote for it.  Especially states that are going thru their own natural disasters right now (like Montana and California).  And I think the Texas delegation will have to leave their principles at the door and cut deals for this aid.  Life comes at you fast, they say.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 8, 2017)

Eventually the cost of these storms is going to have to be baked into the cost of living in the states most affected by these storms. I cant see an endless train of borrowed federal money from Washington without some changes. To be honest its all borrowed or printed and new debt at this point.


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## begreen (Sep 8, 2017)

vinny11950 said:


> Also, the Texas congressional delegation is going to have to take a lot of "pork" in the relief bill to get other states to vote for it.  Especially states that are going thru their own natural disasters right now (like Montana and California).  And I think the Texas delegation will have to leave their principles at the door and cut deals for this aid.  Life comes at you fast, they say.


If it's like Katrina, the big "pork" winners will be the usual suspects - Halliburton, KBR, Blackwater, etc.. Some companies actually made millions with little or no direct involvement. All they did was handle the subcontractors. 
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/12875663/...ntractors-rake-it-they-clean-it/#.WbLVOdOGNE4


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## sportbikerider78 (Sep 8, 2017)

Rand Paul offered the Senate to defer foreign aid to hurricane victims.  Shot down.  
Thomas Massie did the same thing in the House, but rules prevented a vote.  

More important to give our money away (money we don't have and will pay interest on) to foreign powers than to help neighbors.  Your government at 'work'.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 8, 2017)

As with everything its about "oversight"   Which is why i believe, the more Govt involvement the more waste ,fraud and abuse. 
You can point to lack of oversight in every aspect of Govt. Military. Food Stamps, Disability claims, SS checks  going out to dead people  for 20 years to name a few.   And spending borrowed money ,you would think there would be some  effort to spend it wisely.  Unless this changes ,they are just wasting our time and money. IMHO.


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## vinny11950 (Sep 9, 2017)

Found this really amazing, interactive earth mapping tool

https://earth.nullschool.net/

You can change the settings to see different data.


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