# Ironic conundrum



## begreen (Jul 14, 2019)

When you can't get enough solar output due to pollution from coal-fired plants and vehicles. 
https://www.cnet.com/news/chinas-pollution-is-so-bad-its-blocking-the-sunlight-from-solar-panels


----------



## EatenByLimestone (Jul 14, 2019)

I wonder how much of that hits Japan, or even us.


----------



## MTY (Jul 14, 2019)

A lot of their pollution is quite heavy.  You can watch it fall to the ground.  They actually sweep it up.  It is an unbelievable mess.  Imagine going to a town and not being able to see the ground for the dense covering of plastic shopping bags.  At least it is colorful. 

Industry is regionalized, so as you travel you encounter different types of damage to the population due to the particular pollution associated with the local industry.


----------



## peakbagger (Jul 15, 2019)

There is some atmospheric carryover of pollution from china across the pacific by not a lot. Much of the pollution tends to settle in the region where its produced. Back in the ninety sixties folks who wanted to get back to nature moved the pacific northwest as they perceived that the east coast was the at the tailpipe of the US. I wonder if there will be shift in feeling that the NW is sitting in the tail pipe of China?

I worked in a mill town for 17 years in northern NH and for the first 5 years until 1991 our large pulp and paper mill was pretty "dirty". We met and exceeded federal air emissions regulations but the regulations were pretty minimal and many facilities like ours were grandfathered. The pulping process for wood was and still is sulfur based. We also used chlorine for bleaching the wood fibers white and venting the washing equipment to the air. We installed a scrubber on the washing systems around 1990 that removed the vast majority of the chlorine and eventually switched to a different more expensive of method of bleaching   In order to recover the waste heat from the chemical recovery process, pulping liquids were sprayed into the exhaust stream  of the recovery boiler in a device called a direct contact evaporator which effectively carried the sulfur compounds into the air. The mill had a 300 foot stack as it was in a river valley but on warm days, it was easy to taste the sulfur in the air and in warm weather there was a permanent layer of smog in the valley. It was well known by contractors in the area that air conditioning coils had to be coated with an epoxy compound as otherwise the coils would rot out prematurely and it was rare to see brass or bronze fixtures used as they would turn green and rot away due to local sulfur and chlorine in the air. The mill also used #6 fuel oil which was high sulfur on the lime kiln that was an essential part of the process and it  also had a 300 foot stack to disperse the emissions. After more than decade of court battles in the 1980s, the EPA passed new nationwide standards and the mill put in a new chemical recovery unit in 1991 and it was the cleanest of it type installed in US. The kiln remained but switched to low sulfur fuel. The difference was night and day, the next summer days were a lot clearer and the sulfur taste in the air went away.

The bad news was the entire US industry (and to some extent Canada) spent a lot of money complying with these standards, money that wasn't invested in the processes to reduce costs and increase productivity. The new equipment cost more to run. International firms figured that out and new pulp mills opened in places like South America and Indonesia. These plants had no air or water regulations to comply with and within 5 years these facilities could make and deliver their product to our warehouse for less than we could make it. The mill struggled and about 10 years later through a succession of "terminal owners" (entrepreneurs trying to make that one last buck out of dying mill) they mill closed for good putting about 1200 employees out of job. This was repeated all over the US and Canada. The industry crashed as fast as the steel industry but being located in rural areas the media did not pick up on it like the steel industry.

China has been playing the game of building their 3rd world economy by doing the smokestack stuff that the rest of the world doesn't want in their backyard for 20 years. The technology is there to clean things up but it costs time and money to build and operate and in country with no enforced emission standards the standard business practice is build it at least cost and let someone else worry about the pollution. Somewhat like the US discovered in the sixties and seventies, the Chinese are realizing the cost of this approach but the government is still committed to growth at all costs. At some point they will start enforcing regulations and the smokestacks will move to some other third world spot that is willing to trash their environment for the sake of growth. China is already doing this in Africa and has plans to do it in Afghanistan once the US moves out. 

One of the ironic twists is a new company has appeared as a savior of one closed Maine pulpmill in Old Town and one struggling one that was on the brink of closing down in Rumford. Its owned by a Chinese billionaire who plans to make low grade packaging paper in Maine and ship it to China, so I guess in some ways rural Maine is going be a smokestack for China. (the reality is its probably not going to work in the long run but will allow a few folks to make it to retirement and a few new folks to get a job and experience before the Chinese owners figure it out)


----------



## SpaceBus (Jul 15, 2019)

peakbagger said:


> There is some atmospheric carryover of pollution from china across the pacific by not a lot. Much of the pollution tends to settle in the region where its produced. Back in the ninety sixties folks who wanted to get back to nature moved the pacific northwest as they perceived that the east coast was the at the tailpipe of the US. I wonder if there will be shift in feeling that the NW is sitting in the tail pipe of China?
> 
> I worked in a mill town for 17 years in northern NH and for the first 5 years until 1991 our large pulp and paper mill was pretty "dirty". We met and exceeded federal air emissions regulations but the regulations were pretty minimal and many facilities like ours were grandfathered. The pulping process for wood was and still is sulfur based. We also used chlorine for bleaching the wood fibers white and venting the washing equipment to the air. We installed a scrubber on the washing systems around 1990 that removed the vast majority of the chlorine and eventually switched to a different more expensive of method of bleaching   In order to recover the waste heat from the chemical recovery process, pulping liquids were sprayed into the exhaust stream  of the recovery boiler in a device called a direct contact evaporator which effectively carried the sulfur compounds into the air. The mill had a 300 foot stack as it was in a river valley but on warm days, it was easy to taste the sulfur in the air and in warm weather there was a permanent layer of smog in the valley. It was well known by contractors in the area that air conditioning coils had to be coated with an epoxy compound as otherwise the coils would rot out prematurely and it was rare to see brass or bronze fixtures used as they would turn green and rot away due to local sulfur and chlorine in the air. The mill also used #6 fuel oil which was high sulfur on the lime kiln that was an essential part of the process and it  also had a 300 foot stack to disperse the emissions. After more than decade of court battles in the 1980s, the EPA passed new nationwide standards and the mill put in a new chemical recovery unit in 1991 and it was the cleanest of it type installed in US. The kiln remained but switched to low sulfur fuel. The difference was night and day, the next summer days were a lot clearer and the sulfur taste in the air went away.
> 
> ...




Apparently not even the stored solar biomass plants can stay open. There is one near me that used to be a mill. I think I've seen some of your posts on here about that plant. 

Thankfully Old Town isn't close to where I live, but I feel for folks that have to live close. It seems now that my wife and I have moved here there are pipelines, transmission lines, and many other high environmental impact projects trying to get started.


----------



## peakbagger (Jul 15, 2019)

As some of the former somewhat bitter mill workers have commented, you cant eat blue sky. There is a falsehood that a clean environment draws in tourists but with rare exceptions the tourist jobs that are created tend to be non benefit seasonal jobs. Except for the business owner , no one sends their kids to college on a tourist job. My area was "lucky" we got a state and federal prison built that have enough jobs to keep the local hospital open and part of the mill was converted to a subsidized biomass power plant which is around 40 full time jobs with secondary jobs for the wood suppliers. There is the much hyped Ride the Wilds ATV trail network that brings in tourist dollars but with the exception of two ATV dealers (one of whom went bankrupt and was reopened) there are lot of "future sites of hotel and convenience store" signs on lots but not that much permanent jobs. There is an influx of folks from outside that are buying cheap homes to use as weekend get away's so they dont need to haul their ATVs north.   

Old Town is a bedroom community for Bangor and the university, its been in flux for 20 years until the mill goes away officially as folks do not want to buy a place and fix it up only to have the mill restart. Bucksport another former mill town has been lucky as they are near Bar Harbor and getting in on the development boom along the Maine coast. The majority of the mill has been torn down for redevelopment and is currently slated for a new type of on shore salmon farm that hopefully has less impact the current ocean salmons farms. Millinocket and East Millinocket is pretty dismal with a lot of vacant buildings and the towns ending up with homes for taxes. Madison was vacant although a startup is going to try to make wood fiber based insulation there if someone give them enough money.  Westbrook is a superfund site in waiting, Sappi is keeping one or two machines running in hopes that they can delay the inevitable as the cost to clean it up would be hundreds of millions. Rumford dodged a bullet for now with Nine Dragons buying it but its going to be expensive to retrofit it to be competitive with southern kraft mills. About the only mill doing well is Sappi Skowhegan and thats because SAPPI is pumping the money into it.


----------



## SpaceBus (Jul 15, 2019)

peakbagger said:


> As some of the former somewhat bitter mill workers have commented, you cant eat blue sky. There is a falsehood that a clean environment draws in tourists but with rare exceptions the tourist jobs that are created tend to non benefit seasonal jobs. Except for the business owner , no one sends their kid to college on a tourist job. My area was "lucky" we got a state and federal prison built that have enough jobs to keep the local hospital open and part of the mill was converted to a subsidized biomass power plant which is around 40 full time jobs with secondary jobs for the wood suppliers. There is the much hyped Ride the Wilds ATV trail network that brings in tourist dollars but with the exception of two ATV dealers (one of whom went bankrupt and was reopened) there are lot of "future sites of hotel and convenience store" signs on lots but not that much permanent jobs. There is an influx of folks from outside that are buying cheap homes to use as weekend get away's so they dont need to haul their ATVs north.
> 
> Old Town is a bedroom community for Bangor and the university, its been in flux for 20 years until the mill goes away officially as folks do not want to buy a place and fix it up only to have the mill restart. Bucksport another former mill town has been lucky as they are near Bar Harbor and getting in on the development boom along the Maine coast. The majority of the mill has been torn down for redevelopment and is currently slated for a new type of on shore salmon farm that hopefully has less impact the current ocean salmons farms. Millinocket and East Millinocket is pretty dismal with a lot of vacant buildings and the towns ending up with homes for taxes. Madison was vacant although a startup is going to try to make wood fiber based insulation there if someone give them enough money.  Westbrook is a superfund site in waiting, Sappi is keeping one or two machines running in hopes that they can delay the inevitable as the cost to clean it up would be hundreds of millions. Rumford dodged a bullet for now with Nine Dragons buying it but its going to be expensive to retrofit it to be competitive with southern kraft mills. About the only mill doing well is Sappi Skowhegan and thats because SAPPI is pumping the money into it.



As always you are a wealth of knowledge


----------



## begreen (Jul 15, 2019)

peakbagger said:


> There is some atmospheric carryover of pollution from china across the pacific by not a lot. Much of the pollution tends to settle in the region where its produced. Back in the ninety sixties folks who wanted to get back to nature moved the pacific northwest as they perceived that the east coast was the at the tailpipe of the US. I wonder if there will be shift in feeling that the NW is sitting in the tail pipe of China?


Yes, we are starting to see the effects of pollution in China here. Smog components from China and India do migrate to the west coast. 
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo...-western-u-s-is-blamed-on-asias-air-pollution
Some particulates can travel a remarkable distance if they get into the upper atmosphere. for instance, Particles from sandstorms in the Gobi desert can be detected on the west coast. Similar effects have been noticed with sand dust carried from the Sahara for very long distances.


----------



## jebatty (Jul 17, 2019)

A couple of negative environmental impacts from a changing world, one a bit obvious and the other not so. Smoke from western Canadian and US forest fires have a noticeable reduction in solar panel output in northern MN. These smoke events last for days, hazy skies, and even the smell of smoke in the air. The second impact is loss of young forest and wildlife habitat resulting from mill closings and the loss of markets for timber. Timber harvesting well done is very sustainable and results in a diverse forest cover of different age and species mixes, which is very beneficial for wildlife of all sorts. The carbon storage in the root systems of old forests is immense, and the growth of new forest and new carbon storage also is immense. But if there are no mills, all of these benefits have not so obvious negative environmental as well as economic impacts.


----------



## Where2 (Jul 17, 2019)

begreen said:


> When you can't get enough solar output due to pollution from coal-fired plants and vehicles.
> https://www.cnet.com/news/chinas-pollution-is-so-bad-its-blocking-the-sunlight-from-solar-panels



On my first trip to mainland China back during the recession, I was there for 3 weeks. I never saw blue sky that entire trip. The daytime sky was always a hazy form of yellow, almost like an overcast day that never went away. You got used to wearing your dust mask that covered your mouth and nose. My second trip, was a few months later, for a similar duration. On that trip, we'd reached the rainy season, and the frequent rains seemed to cleanse the sky and show that there really was blue sky there. 

Both trips made me truly appreciate living on the peninsula of Florida (downwind of the Gulf of Mexico), and helped my wife and I purchase 50+ acres of managed forest in northern Maine, not too far from some of the mills discussed above. As far as sustainable long term jobs go, I could easily do my tech job from my house in Maine using the fiber internet connection we have there, rather than sitting in my office in FL. There are tech jobs that can be done sitting almost anywhere, with a decent internet connection... The next wave of entrepreneur will harness teams of people scattered across the globe working in collaboration toward project goals.


----------



## SpaceBus (Jul 18, 2019)

Where2 said:


> On my first trip to mainland China back during the recession, I was there for 3 weeks. I never saw blue sky that entire trip. The daytime sky was always a hazy form of yellow, almost like an overcast day that never went away. You got used to wearing your dust mask that covered your mouth and nose. My second trip, was a few months later, for a similar duration. On that trip, we'd reached the rainy season, and the frequent rains seemed to cleanse the sky and show that there really was blue sky there.
> 
> Both trips made me truly appreciate living on the peninsula of Florida (downwind of the Gulf of Mexico), and helped my wife and I purchase 50+ acres of managed forest in northern Maine, not too far from some of the mills discussed above. As far as sustainable long term jobs go, I could easily do my tech job from my house in Maine using the fiber internet connection we have there, rather than sitting in my office in FL. There are tech jobs that can be done sitting almost anywhere, with a decent internet connection... The next wave of entrepreneur will harness teams of people scattered across the globe working in collaboration toward project goals.



I'm hoping art will see a similar wave.


----------



## peakbagger (Jul 18, 2019)

There are already folks earning a living who are effectively tech gypsies with no home address most doing gig work and working where they please. Many form loose groups that rent homes in vacation destinations (with good broadband) as one of the down sides of working remotely is hanging out with people. Sure some folks are fine working virtually but there is definitely some social isolation.

For the last 10 years and hopefully until I decide to stop working, I work from my home in Northern NH with a view of the Northern Presidentials out the window while the vast majority of my projects are in Massachusetts. Sure I make day trips and occasional overnights but most of my work is on the phone or on online. I am sure I could not survive working in "cube farm" again.


----------



## begreen (Jul 22, 2019)

SpaceBus said:


> I'm hoping art will see a similar wave.


It has already for several years. Major marketing, animation and film projects are often globally distributed amongst artists using desktop computer tools. This company in New Zealand, for example, is almost all virtual. They do large scale marketing, ad campaigns and graphics development almost entirely with remote artists.
https://cirkus.nz/


----------



## blades (Jul 22, 2019)

Exactly what my middle sons company does although for him ( it guy ) he is on site daily.


----------



## peakbagger (Jul 22, 2019)

The scary part with a lot of this remote work is its gig work. No insurance, benefits or a lot of legal protections. Its fine when someone is young healthy and footloose but not so good for someone who is established or has a unexpected medical problem appear. You hear about the glamorous jobs with someone sitting on a beach but for everyone of them there a lot more folks making less than minimum wage working for Uber.


----------



## SpaceBus (Jul 22, 2019)

peakbagger said:


> The scary part with a lot of this remote work is its gig work. No insurance, benefits or a lot of legal protections. Its fine when someone is young healthy and footloose but not so good for someone who is established or has a unexpected medical problem appear. You hear about the glamorous jobs with someone sitting on a beach but for everyone of them there a lot more folks making less than minimum wage working for Uber.



Amazon is another example.


----------



## begreen (Jul 22, 2019)

peakbagger said:


> The scary part with a lot of this remote work is its gig work. No insurance, benefits or a lot of legal protections. Its fine when someone is young healthy and footloose but not so good for someone who is established or has a unexpected medical problem appear.


Good point. It's important to be prepared. Often this work can be feast or famine. I did remote graphics work for a while raising a family including a son that had epilepsy. Fortunately,  WA state had good, affordable insurance plans available that helped ease that anxiety and we did pretty well. Keeping up with mortgage payments was scarier but we managed ok.


----------



## EatenByLimestone (Jul 23, 2019)

Was at HD yesterday.   I needed pens that would still write in rain.  Due to the color of the substrate, pencil wouldn't work.   Only lane open was the self checkout.  I handed my pens to the attendant to check out.  She says, let me show you how to use these.   See, it wasnt that bad!   

I know running a checkout isnt hard.  But there will be a time when they won't even need a checkout person.  I think they are doing that with some grocery stores now.  Where is that lady's job then?


----------



## Highbeam (Jul 29, 2019)

EatenByLimestone said:


> Was at HD yesterday.   I needed pens that would still write in rain.  Due to the color of the substrate, pencil wouldn't work.   Only lane open was the self checkout.  I handed my pens to the attendant to check out.  She says, let me show you how to use these.   See, it wasnt that bad!
> 
> I know running a checkout isnt hard.  But there will be a time when they won't even need a checkout person.  I think they are doing that with some grocery stores now.  Where is that lady's job then?



That lady’s job today is to teach you how to use the technology. Her role is to do what she is told.


----------



## EatenByLimestone (Jul 29, 2019)

That dawned on me, but it's still a sad state.


----------



## Highbeam (Jul 30, 2019)

EatenByLimestone said:


> That dawned on me, but it's still a sad state.



It’s just that you can’t blame or hold it against the girls on the floor trying to force you to use the stupid self check lanes. They’ve been given orders.


----------



## begreen (Jul 31, 2019)

They tried self-checkout at our local grocery store. Lasted a year and then they yanked them out due to unpopularity.


----------



## SpaceBus (Aug 1, 2019)

At my local over priced grocery store I prefer self checkout unless I have a full cart. You also seem a little more social and less of a recluse than I am. Somehow this town is actually at an employment deficit and there are less able bodied people than jobs available. Every business is short staffed and can't keep up with demand. Nobody is saying it, but I think it's because of the tourist industry and the lack of winter time residents. Over the winter it hardly seemed understaffed.


----------



## Ashful (Aug 1, 2019)

EatenByLimestone said:


> ...there will be a time when they won't even need a checkout person.  I think they are doing that with some grocery stores now.  Where is that lady's job then?


I feel a little hypocritical saying this, as I worry about AI replacing the need for skills like my own, but the reality is that the need for this lady’s minimum wage job is being replaced by numerous new higher-skill and higher-paying jobs.  Those jobs are the design, support, manufacture, sales and maintenance of every component in the new automated systems, the integration and installation of them, and everything else surrounding the new technology.

People sometimes try to argue that there are fewer of these jobs than those they are replacing, hence the ability of the new tech to cut operating costs.  This is technically true, in the very temporary sense, but the reduced costs always increase consumerism which fulfills the demand.  In other words, Sony can now build more TV’s with less people than they could in 1970.  This has reduced the cost of a television by more than 10x, when adjusted for inflation, over this time period.  But they are now selling more than 10x the number of televisions they once did, keeping demand for all of the manufacturing and sales jobs that surround this industry about the same.


----------



## SpaceBus (Aug 1, 2019)

Ashful said:


> I feel a little hypocritical saying this, as I worry about AI replacing the need for skills like my own, but the reality is that the need for this lady’s minimum wage job is being replaced by numerous new higher-skill and higher-paying jobs.  Those jobs are the design, support, manufacture, sales and maintenance of every component in the new automated systems, the integration and installation of them, and everything else surrounding the new technology.
> 
> People sometimes try to argue that there are fewer of these jobs than those they are replacing, hence the ability of the new tech to cut operating costs.  This is technically true, in the very temporary sense, but the reduced costs always increase consumerism which fulfills the demand.  In other words, Sony can now build more TV’s with less people than they could in 1970.  This has reduced the cost of a television by more than 10x, when adjusted for inflation, over this time period.  But they are now selling more than 10x the number of televisions they once did, keeping demand for all of the manufacturing and sales jobs that surround this industry about the same.



Also, I look forward to a future where nobody has to work miserable jobs for scraps. Let the robots do menial garbage tasks and get yelled at on the phone. It's about time we started treating everyone much better. Isn't the whole point of this life we live to make things easier? I think folks need to wrap their minds around the reality of subsidizing living. There will come a time where there just won't be enough jobs and the government will have to subsidize folks to have a reasonable quality of life. If you want to earn more than that, you will just have to try and find a job or create a money making niche. This already exists in some areas, albeit with much smaller population groups than the US and a whole host of different issues. All these changes scare folks because they don't like change. In particular rural areas being affected most by these changes.


----------



## Ashful (Aug 1, 2019)

SpaceBus said:


> Also, I look forward to a future where nobody has to work miserable jobs for scraps.


I agree, but I anticipate a few negatives:

1.  Greater elimination of menial jobs will negatively impact those who make unwise choices early in life.  Let’s face it, for a host of different reasons, there are a lot of people who don’t wake up and “get it” until a little later in life.  I saw a lot of my friends go thru this in their mid-thirties.  Fifty years ago, these people could go out and get a manufacturing job, and do okay.  Today they’ll struggle a bit more, but can still usually find a way to make ends meet.  When jobs that require little or no experience or education are much fewer, it will really pinch these people out of the system.

2.  If you pay attention to the absolutely scary-fast development of AI, you’re probably fully aware that the educated white-collar crowd is about to go thru a revolution very similar to what their blue-collar brothers experienced in the 1970’s.  This is going to be very rough, and upset quite a few families who thought they were doing all of the right things to set themselves and their children up for a comfortable future.  Goodbye doctors, AI is already proving better at diagnosis of symptoms, most of us will only need RN’s and technicians to implement the treatment.  Goodbye bachelor’s-level engineers, AI is already proving better at implementing a set of requirements into a solution, within existing technology constraints.  Goodbye to litigators, accountants, and many other roles that rely on structured linear thinking or problem solving.  The creative folks can rejoice, they’ll be safe for a bit longer, until those lucrative lawyers and doctors run out of money to fund their creative efforts.

The question for our kids and grandkids, is what will they do?  They can’t all make a living as baristas or artists, cyclically serving one another.  The opportunity for feudal-level concentrations of wealth is so real and so likely, due to a few people or organizations owning the technology that will replace all of these various human needs and services, that it is truly frightening.  It’s easy to forget for those living in the last 300 years, that human history is not a straight line of increasing social well-being, but full of enormous dips that set us back a few hundred years at a time.  I don’t think it’s “tinfoil hat” to believe another such dip may be coming within the next two generations.


----------



## SpaceBus (Aug 1, 2019)

Ashful said:


> I agree, but I anticipate a few negatives:
> 
> 1.  Greater elimination of menial jobs will negatively impact those who make unwise choices early in life.  Let’s face it, for a host of different reasons, there are a lot of people who don’t wake up and “get it” until a little later in life.  I saw a lot of my friends go thru this in their mid-thirties.  Fifty years ago, these people could go out and get a manufacturing job, and do okay.  Today they’ll struggle a bit more, but can still usually find a way to make ends meet.  When jobs that require little or no experience or education are much fewer, it will really pinch these people out of the system.
> 
> ...



The future is scary, but perhaps it always has been. I can't imagine all of the current wealth holders suddenly being ok with their current amount of wealth, so I expect any and all measures to be taken to maintain the status quo.


----------



## begreen (Aug 1, 2019)

I agree that robotics can reduce drudgery and injury. However, along with treating people better, we need to treat the planet much better as well. Those 10x cheaper Sonys now produced at 10x volume take 10x the resources and are ending up in landfills 10x as often. I manage an annual local electronics recycling event and am floored at the number of tvs and computers we collect from our small community. Just like jobs becoming finite, so are our resources.


----------



## Ashful (Aug 1, 2019)

begreen said:


> I agree that robotics can reduce drudgery and injury. However, along with treating people better, we need to treat the planet much better as well. Those 10x cheaper Sonys now produced at 10x volume take 10x the resources and are ending up in landfills 10x as often. I manage an annual local electronics recycling event and am floored at the number of tvs and computers we collect from our small community. Just like jobs becoming finite, so are our resources.



I agree with the premise, but keeping with the current example, there was no recycling in 1970, and the pollution and waste generated at every step of the process is likely approaching 10x less per unit.  We seem to be experiencing a ground-swell of public awareness on issues surrounding pollution and waste, and so I expect this trend toward minimizing both (per GDP or capital) will only accelerate.


----------



## begreen (Aug 1, 2019)

SpaceBus said:


> The future is scary, but perhaps it always has been. I can't imagine all of the current wealth holders suddenly being ok with their current amount of wealth, so I expect any and all measures to be taken to maintain the status quo.


To worry about the future, there needs to be one. And that will require a much more dramatic change in businesses and lifestyles than one that robotics and AI may bring about. Hopefully, these new technologies will aid us in accomplishing this goal much more efficiently than our current path.


Ashful said:


> I agree with the premise, but keeping with the current example, there was no recycling in 1970, and the pollution and waste generated at every step of the process is likely approaching 10x less per unit. We seem to be experiencing a ground-swell of public awareness on issues surrounding pollution and waste, and so I expect this trend toward minimizing both (per GDP or capital) will only accelerate.


I'm not sure I can agree with that assumption. There are magnitudes more people buying electronics now (think globally not just locally). Second, there are tons of plastics in modern electronics that weren't present in 1970. The extraction, transport, refining of fossil fuels just to make those plastics is significant. Only about 9% of plastics produced are recycled globally. There may be a groundswell in awareness about recycling, but the facts show that we are poor about actually doing it. And most electronics are not recycled, they are landfilled or worse. (our county won't take electronics at all) Add to this that people are junking electronics much faster now than in 1970. The attitude back then was that if it broke you had it fixed. Now the attitude is it will cost too much to repair (if you can even find someone to do the repair), so just replace it.


----------



## SpaceBus (Aug 1, 2019)

"A Brave New World" was right about the future, "ending is better than mending". I never guessed my senior English reading list would ever be relevant!


----------

