# Ukraine and Russia



## webbie (Feb 27, 2014)

Not looking to get into a political back and forth here, but just an observation that this could be a much bigger deal than anything we've dealt with in many decades. We are talking about two nuclear armed countries and forces (Putin and the Russian oligarchs) who will likely stop at nothing to assure that Ukraine remains part of their sphere.

I suspect BG here know more (visited there?), but this should be on the radar of those who care about foreign affairs and long-term tendencies toward democracy and freedom.

As I commented to my Dad in FL last week, the biggest PR job ever done was "the cold war is over"...not to say we should start up that craziness again, but it would be foolish not to see that Russia seems to most always be on the "other" side of most issues (Iran/Syria, etc. etc.) than we do.

I hope it settles down. Even if the result is less than perfect.


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## flyingcow (Feb 27, 2014)

That has been in the back of my mind.....where is this conflict going? I assumed with the Olympics and the PR that goes with it, Russia will be kind of quiet and low keyed. But once the world has moved on after the Olympics???


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## webbie (Feb 27, 2014)

150,000 troops, fighter jets, Russia protecting the old leader.....doesn't look good. Putin has experience in these matters....


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## GENECOP (Feb 27, 2014)

I think the exhaust from my wood furnace will shield me from the Fallout....no?


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## webbie (Feb 27, 2014)

GENECOP said:


> I think the exhaust from my wood furnace will shield me from the Fallout....no?



I'm old enough that I will prob go of natural causes before the fallout has enough time to settle in.......

I'm usually an optimist....and I guess neither of them want MAD (mutual assured destruction), so maybe that's a long shot. 

Still, this could go either way. The west is not about to mess with Putin too much if he decides that Ukraine is his. And, tell you the truth, he has as much claim to it as we do to large parts of our own country and colonies.....so it's a tough situation. I like to think the general tendency is toward freedom, but sometimes it's two steps forward and then one back.


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## Butcher (Feb 27, 2014)

We should take a lesson from those in the Ukraine that are sick and tired of a government that is heavy handed and intrude on our lives just for the fact that they can get away with it. I'm from German ancestry. 1 side of my family came here in the mid 1800"s and the other side came during WW2. All of use are proud to be here and have lost many loved ones in wars since my family have settled in this country.
I'm surprised that so many folks from the east coast on this forum  the birth place of this country are so complaisant about the freedoms that are slowly slipping away from us. I will say no more and delete if you please but just remember this, There by the grace of God go I.


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## webbie (Feb 27, 2014)

It's a stretch to compare Russia - where men live on average 60 years - to that here (76+ years), or to compare their standard of living to ours. 

But back to Ukraine - I just saw an interview with McCain about it - and he pretty much had it right. Putin is a KGB strong man who wants to reassert his power - and, frankly, he does have a lot of power to throw around. But, as Mac said, he's likely to do it all covertly (from the inside) rather than start a real conflict. 

We in the USA will always disagree internally about what "real freedom" is....but, as we see with the pot, gay and many other similar issues (which are issues of "rights" and freedoms), we tend to come around eventually. 

If you or anyone else is unhappy, you can definitely protest, vote, organize, blog, sing, write, etc....which is probably less true in Russia. Keep in mind that even Russians are not rebelling and they have it MUCH worse than we do by any measurement! It takes an awful lot to make "comfortable" people take to the streets.


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## Minnesota Marty (Feb 27, 2014)

Russia needs the Ukraine it is their "breadbasket".  Putin knows he can do what he needs to do, without any backlash from our President.  Putin has no respect for Obama.  It is going to get ugly.  Putin is old school KGB - soft smile - iron jaw. 
My prayers are with the Ukraine people. I hope they can preserve and peacefully be distruptive to Putin. It worked in Poland and Czechoslovakia it is the only way to beat the the KGB.


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## webbie (Feb 27, 2014)

Heck, we can't do anything (IMHO) no matter what. We've already swung the Big Stick many times against lesser enemies without result. We're sure not going to cause a WW.

We can do about as much about that as Putin can do about us making sure we still own Alaska or that Canada is still our close ally. It's simply not our sphere of influence and idle threats don't work. I am 100% sure that most Americans don't want to spend trillions more and send their sons and daughters over there.

So my entire premise is that this is going to be something which ends up being settled by the Ukrainians as well as perhaps some input from neighbors and maybe a bit of NATO posturing. In the end, though, I think most modern conflicts have proven that if the true Home Team (Ukranians) don't want the outsiders ruling the place, then that result could happen...Putin or no Putin.

It's also hard since we've long ago told Russia that they are now a "free market democracy" and "friend" (Bush saw into Putins soul that he was a good man and Obama pretty much the same - although both of those positions are probably because of Russian oil and business)....so we can't just turn the tables and claim they are what they are! 

I hope we stay far out of this mess. In fact, I hope it doesn't become a mess. Either way, I think it's - unlike many other contrived news stories - something that should concern Americans.

I admit ignorance on the Ukraine. I don't know if they have any treaties or allies in place, etc.


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## begreen (Feb 28, 2014)

This is not a good situation. It has neighbor Georgia quite concerned as well. Ukraine has been politically divided for a long time. The Western part (west of the Dneiper) is decidedly European in culture and attitude. They prefer to speak Ukrainian. But the far eastern portion and the Crimea are pro-Russian and speak mostly Russian. The Crimea is also where Russia has it's only warm water naval port. It is not going to give up a presence on the Black Sea. Then you have Putin who is under political attack in his own country. He is running on a strong Russia like in the "good old days" platform. A lot of people still bemoan the loss of Russian satellite states as a falling from world power. So losing ground in the Ukraine is losing face for Putin as well as for Russian Nationalists. It's claimed that Russian troops took over the Crimean parliament and their airports in the past two days.

It doesn't bode well for the Ukrainians because they lack a trustworthy, strong leadership. I have a friend living in Kiev right now. It is tense there still. Their currency is plummeting and right now they are trying to stem a run on the banks. Not good times there at all. 

In the meantime, leave it to Steven Segal to lighten things up a bit.


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## Warm_in_NH (Feb 28, 2014)

Interesting to say the least. We used the excuse of not liking their attitude towards homosexuals as to why we didn't send ANY govt reps to attend the Olympics,  first time in a long time we sat one out.
We used the excuse of possible bombings or other attacks as a reason to park a couple naval vessels off their coast. Really? 

Our government saw this coming, just hope we don't get too involved but I think Putin is going to flex his muscle and I'm not sure how well react. 

Agreed though,  keep an eye on this situation,  could get ugly.

Russian ship surprise docking in Cuba.....

http://ww2.nationalpost.com/m/wp/bl...munist-nation-as-armed-vessel-docks-in-havana


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## Retired Guy (Feb 28, 2014)

webbie said:


> Heck, we can't do anything (IMHO) no matter what. We've already swung the Big Stick many times against lesser enemies without result. We're sure not going to cause a WW.
> 
> We can do about as much about that as Putin can do about us making sure we still own Alaska or that Canada is still our close ally. It's simply not our sphere of influence and idle threats don't work. I am 100% sure that most Americans don't want to spend trillions more and send their sons and daughters over there.
> 
> ...


With Putin, I wouldn't be sure about the US keeping Alaska.


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## webbie (Feb 28, 2014)

Turns out my family probably hails from Ukraine - at least the Paternal side.
I say probably because both the names and the borders tend to change and much of history was wiped out in the pogroms, the revolutions and WWII. 
One family was apparently from deep inside Ukraine, and the other closer to the border in an area call Galacia - which has been disputed over the years, but borders places like Hungary, Poland and Austria/Germany. 

My bro, luckily for me, spends time digging up Ellis Island and Army records!


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## flyingcow (Feb 28, 2014)

Warm_in_NH said:


> http://ww2.nationalpost.com/m/wp/bl...munist-nation-as-armed-vessel-docks-in-havana




Is this credible? Or is this normal? Just curious about this info.


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## begreen (Feb 28, 2014)

Russian biker gangs are now being flown in to the Crimea. 

http://world.time.com/2014/02/28/crimea-russia-putin-night-wolves/


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## Warm_in_NH (Feb 28, 2014)

flyingcow said:


> Is this credible? Or is this normal? Just curious about this info.



http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBREA1Q21120140227?irpc=932

Reuters is carrying same story.  I'd say credible.


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## webbie (Feb 28, 2014)

Warm_in_NH said:


> http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBREA1Q21120140227?irpc=932
> 
> Reuters is carrying same story.  I'd say credible.



BUT, this is a joke in terms of meaning anything. It's not saber rattling either. It would be another thing if it was 1880. Nothing on this earth could be on that ship which could not be on land in Cuba or on one of the many nuclear subs the Russians have around the world, etc.....

I'm no military expert, but this type of thing seems like a story line to drum up fear. After all, we have vast "assets" very close to China, Russia and just about everywhere else on the planet....


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## Warm_in_NH (Feb 28, 2014)

webbie said:


> BUT, this is a joke in terms of meaning anything. It's not saber rattling either. It would be another thing if it was 1880. Nothing on this earth could be on that ship which could not be on land in Cuba or on one of the many nuclear subs the Russians have around the world, etc.....
> 
> I'm no military expert, but this type of thing seems like a story line to drum up fear. After all, we have vast "assets" very close to China, Russia and just about everywhere else on the planet....



True. Just odd. But probably media hype or "saber rattling" as you said.

Are our ships that we put over there for the Olympics still in the area? I, not surprisingly,  couldn't find any info on it.

Also, if you believe wickedpedia, Ukraine no longer has nukes.


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## Doug MacIVER (Feb 28, 2014)

and from the hard righthttp://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2014/02/28/Flashback-Palin-Mocked-in-2008-for-Warning-Putin-May-Invade-Ukraine-if-Obama-Elected-President


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## iceguy4 (Feb 28, 2014)

After watching the news I became  more aware things were escalating...  doesn't look good does it..?


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## flyingcow (Feb 28, 2014)

webbie said:


> BUT, this is a joke in terms of meaning anything. It's not saber rattling either. It would be another thing if it was 1880. Nothing on this earth could be on that ship which could not be on land in Cuba or on one of the many nuclear subs the Russians have around the world, etc.....
> 
> I'm no military expert, but this type of thing seems like a story line to drum up fear. After all, we have vast "assets" very close to China, Russia and just about everywhere else on the planet....




I agree completely.  God love the internet......Can i come out of my hole now?


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## flyingcow (Feb 28, 2014)

Although, I think begreen is onto something with Steven Segal...Steven claims he has a friendship with Putin.

Rodman with North Korea.....?

May dig that hole a bit deeper.


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## Warm_in_NH (Feb 28, 2014)

I thought Egypt was going to be a big issue for us, it wasn't.  
I though N. Korea was going to be a big issue with their last set of launches (not this go around) was going to be an issue, not so much.
There's Iran, but we just forgot about them...
Hopefully this goes by the way side as well 

We were the "world bully" for years.  Now we vow not to be. There's always going to be a bully on every play ground, we're just witnessing the others testing the waters....

I just hope that's all any of this ends up being.


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## flyingcow (Feb 28, 2014)

BUT, the Russian playground is an old playground. And they used to play for keeps. Putin is the ole' KGB.....

And BTW, whether it's Egypt/N.korea/etc....The Enemy of my Enemy is.....?


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## Retired Guy (Mar 1, 2014)

I'm wondering how many millions Putin will exterminate rebuilding the empire.


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## Retired Guy (Mar 1, 2014)

webbie said:


> Not looking to get into a political back and forth here, but just an observation that this could be a much bigger deal than anything we've dealt with in many decades. We are talking about two nuclear armed countries and forces (Putin and the Russian oligarchs) who will likely stop at nothing to assure that Ukraine remains part of their sphere.
> 
> I suspect BG here know more (visited there?), but this should be on the radar of those who care about foreign affairs and long-term tendencies toward democracy and freedom.
> 
> ...


The sad part is that it isn't going to settle down until Putin gets what he wants.


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## begreen (Mar 1, 2014)

He just asked and received permission from the Russian parliament to militarily take over the Crimea. Folks in Poland and the Baltics are more than a little concerned.


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## webbie (Mar 1, 2014)

iceguy4 said:


> After watching the news I became  more aware things were escalating...  doesn't look good does it..?


Russia just approved the use of military force there. That pretty much says it all.

Let's game it out.......

Some chit happens. The UN and NATO seek to avoid total conflict, so they suggest a cease fire.

Ukraine gets broken up into a sphere for Russia and one for the Ukraine.

Is that feasible?


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## webbie (Mar 1, 2014)

Retired Guy said:


> I'm wondering how many millions Putin will exterminate rebuilding the empire.


I don't think it will come to that. Then again, I'm an optimist...

I guess it all works in all directions. We can't claim the "we never did stuff like that" attitude now, and Putin sure can't claim it. With MAD, it doesn't matter whether we spend 10X as much as Putin on the military. He has more than enough to do what he wants. 

Well, I guess the only thing to do is watch. As with everything else, we all have shifting opinions and very little input into what actually goes down. The world is a big place now and highly developed...different than the old days.


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## vinny11950 (Mar 1, 2014)

not much we can do.  just like other countries watching us interfere in the Southern Hemisphere for years so too will Russia flex its muscle and meddle with its neighbors to advance and protect their interests.

the Chinese will do it too in Asia.  let them have it because there is nothing we can do about it.

now if a nuke goes off or goes missing, well then we have a problem.  but i doubt Putin will be that careless.  he is a control freak and will surely secure those first if he didn't control them already.

it is sad for the people caught up in the turmoil of the ethnic fighting.


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## begreen (Mar 1, 2014)

webbie said:


> Russia just approved the use of military force there. That pretty much says it all.
> 
> Let's game it out.......
> 
> ...


The Crimea was Russian up until when Khrushev "gave" it to Ukraine. This is about the Russian Fleet and the strategic purpose of their warm water port. All your base are belong to us. If they go beyond the Crimea then the western world has a situation on hand that is much more serious.

Still, there's not much the US can do given our recent transgressions in Iraq. We set a policy of "we'll do what we want" and now have been checkmated after our last move. All we can do is reassure neighbors of our support. Georgia in particular is very seriously concerned and with good reason.


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## Panhandler (Mar 1, 2014)

Doug MacIVER said:


> and from the hard righthttp://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2014/02/28/Flashback-Palin-Mocked-in-2008-for-Warning-Putin-May-Invade-Ukraine-if-Obama-Elected-President


 Well, of course she knew that. She could watch it off her back porch.


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## Retired Guy (Mar 1, 2014)

Panhandler said:


> Well, of course she knew that. She could watch it off her back porch.


There were quite a few candidates that understood what Putin had in mind.


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## Treacherous (Mar 1, 2014)

My old childhood cold war memories have been resurrected as of late.  The youth of today are now getting a raw dose.


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## BrotherBart (Mar 1, 2014)

Yeah Vlad, you can't invade a soverign country. Oh wait...


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## smokedragon (Mar 1, 2014)

I see this going the route of Syria......we threaten and draw lines in the sand, but nothing is done.

In the end Russia will get its way, and it will be a no issue for us.


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## Treacherous (Mar 1, 2014)

I read an op-ed piece somewhere that if revolution/conflict occurs in Ukraine it may spread to other republics on the border of Russia that have significant ethnic disparities in their populations.


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## Treacherous (Mar 1, 2014)

Hopefully this blows over... for some reason current events have me checking the batteries in my geiger counter.


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## begreen (Mar 2, 2014)

I think not T. More likely we will muddle through this. This is a summary of what will likely happen:

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2014/03/wee-prediction-about-ukraine


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## begreen (Mar 2, 2014)

Retired Guy said:


> There were quite a few candidates that understood what Putin had in mind.



If I were Putin, I'd be pretty pissed at all the Republicans giving Obama credit for the invasion of Ukraine. 

Andy Borowitz


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## begreen (Mar 2, 2014)

This is an interesting insight. Indications are that this has been in the works for a long time. 
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_worl...ticipated_the_russian_invasion_of_crimea.html


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## Treacherous (Mar 2, 2014)

I assume the Budapest Memorandum will be disregarded here...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2570335/Former-British-Ambassador-Moscow-warns-Russia-invaded-Ukraine-difficult-avoid-going-war.html

A treaty signed in 1994 by the US and Britain could pull both countries into a war to protect Ukraine if President Putin's troops cross into the country.
Bill Clinton, John Major, Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kuchma – the then-rulers of the USA, UK, Russia and Ukraine - agreed to the The Budapest Memorandum as part of the denuclearization of former Soviet republics after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Technically it means that if Russia has invaded Ukraine then it would be difficult for the US and Britain to avoid going to war.


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## vinny11950 (Mar 3, 2014)

Treacherous said:


> I assume the Budapest Memorandum will be disregarded here...
> 
> http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2570335/Former-British-Ambassador-Moscow-warns-Russia-invaded-Ukraine-difficult-avoid-going-war.html
> 
> ...



practically, me thinks they will just forget about this treaty or find some way around it.

whether Ukraine is invaded by Russia or not is not a core interest to the U.S.  

it makes Poland and Germany nervous but that is what NATO is for.

the mistake would be for the U.S. to make more out of this than it needs to be.  this is the biggest dog in that part of the world flexing its muscle.  let it due that and let it control its Sphere of Influence.

it is just another Neo-Con fantasy to believe otherwise.


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## begreen (Mar 5, 2014)

Some astute observations from Ukraine.

http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2014/mar/01/ukraine-haze-propaganda/

Many of those Russian's that Putin says are concerned about their fate in Ukraine are actually what the locals call "protest  tourists" flown in from Russia for a few rubles.


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