# What's the current economy in your area like?



## papa bears stove (Aug 30, 2012)

Interesting news today from upstate NY. The NYS fair attendance was down 20,000 people yesterday.  The fair attendance for this years fair is down 100,000.  The local newspaper announced that it is cutting back and only going to print 3 days a week now.  We keep being told the economy is getting better, I keep asking where?  What is the economy like in your area?


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## rkshed (Aug 30, 2012)

Well, strictly my observations:
In southern NH, there is plenty of work for those that want it. The state's unemploment rate has not seen drastic swings like much of the rest of the country has. Hmm, maybe there is something to be said about no sales or income taxes
It seems as though people are complaining about the economy here but their habits have changed little.
I think is a "general uneasiness" people have about the overall direction of the country.


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## TomR (Aug 30, 2012)

The economy in my area is OK but certainly not great.  If either myself or my wife lost our job we would be in trouble.  As far as can tell good jobs aren't easy to come by right now.  I'm not over board with it but I do look for ways to save money - last year we installed a wood stove and added insulation, this year I'm adding a pellet stove.  There is a lot of 'front end' cost associated with these purchases but I believe over the long-run I will save significant money reducing my dependence on oil.


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## greg13 (Aug 30, 2012)

You can't gauge the economy on those two examples. Take into account that (1) the entertainment at the fair sucks this year. there are NO grandstand shows for 3 or 4 nights this year, so if you figure 20000 fans per show the attendance is going to be down. Plus Springsteen was at Vernon downs last night. (2) Newspaper readership HAS dropped, I feel it is a sad trend that the next generation is bringing about, How many young people do you see reading a paper? The Syracuse paper will do home delivery 3 day a week, but print a "smaller" edition for news stands the other days. The plan on concentrating their effort to "On line" readership.

Work wise (rental house) we really have not seen much of an overall change since last year. Remember too that this is an election year so you will hear a lot about how good or bad the economy is depending on who's commercial it is. Plus the price of oil goes up every time it clouds up in the Gulf of Mexico or there is a refinery fire in another country.

OK wife says I have to put the soap box back in the closet.


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## Vinelife (Aug 30, 2012)

Economy here is slowly getting better ... slowly ...finally we don't have a tax and spend junkie ..


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## Dtunes (Aug 30, 2012)

Economy is ok here. Most everyone I know is working, though many people's wages haven't increased as much as the cost of living. Haven't heard of wide spread layoffs for over a year. Healthcare costs continue to rise, luckily my wife's insurance is far better than my company's. With the economy the way it is, everyone is a little more nervous about job security than we'd like. Employer's are of course reveling in poor labor market. More work, less people, almost daring someone to complain. Cost of living is so high here which is frustrating, especially seeing how cheap pellets are in other places 

I think news papers are a special circumstance though. I'm in my early thirties and none of my peers read the actual physical news paper. It's not just a matter of wanting it free(though that helps). I just can't see the sense in printing and shipping all those tons of paper just to distribute the news, seems like such a waste of resources. Also once it's printed, the stories can't be updated or expanded.

I don't think anyone in my generation or younger reads the paper. The internet is just a more efficient means of delivering news. I will say they don't seem to have the same quality professional writers that news papers did when they were still the predominant news source.


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## begreen (Aug 31, 2012)

Economy here is showing good signs of recovery. 3 yrs ago there was little new construction. This year it's picked up a lot. Home sales are doing better too. Not great, but improving.


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## smwilliamson (Aug 31, 2012)

Economy here in Southern MA never really changed. A whole sector of jobs disappeared and is slowly coming back, if at all, food got more expensive, gas prices moved around and my auto mechanic is still charging $115 per hour and his lot is always full. The new economy is this...if you are creative, you'll find work and do well. Education isn't that much of an issue. If you only know how to work for someone else....well, you already have one in line before you at pay day and that may be one too many.

Rehoboth Fair didn't go on this year.


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## firefighterjake (Aug 31, 2012)

rkshed said:


> Well, strictly my observations:
> In southern NH, there is plenty of work for those that want it. The state's unemploment rate has not seen drastic swings like much of the rest of the country has. Hmm, maybe there is something to be said about no sales or income taxes
> It seems as though people are complaining about the economy here but their habits have changed little.
> I think is a "general uneasiness" people have about the overall direction of the country.


 
Same here . . . from what I've been seeing Maine almost always seems to be among the last to see change -- both in terms of good times and bad times . . . and even then there isn't typically a huge change.

Gut feeling is that things are slowly improving . . . but at a very slow pace as many people (but certainly not all -- it seems many folks have very short term memories when it comes to finances) are more cautious about spending money, investing, etc.


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## ironpony (Aug 31, 2012)

business fell about 30% a few years back, has stayed steady since. Adjusted overheads to compensate for that, shows us how much we did not need to spend. Still able to give raises and bonuses. Slight uptick so far this fiscal year. Keeping 17 people employed full time with benefits. Buying a new building this year, actually going to save us some more overhead. Bank says we are one of the few doing "well" on thier balance sheet. Have diversified and picked up some new revenue streams which has helped.  I have always said I am to stupid to realise I am failing so I keep moving ahead. We also feel we have a responsibility to the employees to keep them in good wages and benefits, the company keeps absorbing the health insurance increases so the employees can afford them. Not sure how long we can keep that up but we will try as long as possible.Our Ins. broker says we are stupid for picking up the tab, my responce was without employees we close (looking for new broker). Apparently we are one of the few left covering familys. We are still here and profitable.


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## Adios Pantalones (Aug 31, 2012)

rkshed said:


> Well, strictly my observations:
> In southern NH, there is plenty of work for those that want it. The state's unemploment rate has not seen drastic swings like much of the rest of the country has. Hmm, maybe there is something to be said about no sales or income taxes
> It seems as though people are complaining about the economy here but their habits have changed little.
> I think is a "general uneasiness" people have about the overall direction of the country.


 
Heard this morning that NH polls say 60% like the direction in NH, but 70% (same poll- people in NH) do not like the direction that the nation is headed.

Here is the deal- this is worth every dime you're paying for it:


The economy is down nation wide (except North Dakota), nonetheless- local politicians are pinning bad economic performance on incumbents- like the governor of a state is so at fault when the whole nation's economy has tanked.
Every economist worth his well starched collar is saying that since this is more than just a serious economy thing- it's a fiscal/financial crisis as well- it should take 7+ years after the bottom to recover.
We are gaining employment- albeit at a slow rate. Whoever wins this election will look like a damn hero because the economy will have better recovery. That party will say "I told you so", despite the fact that it's as much about the trend as anything.
The US has actually done a lot better than most nations over the past x years.
I sure as heck hope that Europe straightens out it's thing as well, as they can derail whatever gains we make.


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## btuser (Aug 31, 2012)

Local: People are building houses again and in my town prices are going up quickly because a) the Manchester school system is falling apart b) people are moving to NH because it's not "that bad" here compared to a lot of the Southwest and Southern states. Friends who made it out are coming back to interview. As far as wages go I've lost 4 good people in the past 6 months, two of which almost doubled their hourly rate. All 4 were casualties of the slowdown and my company took advantage of the slowdown to really screw them. I warned the boss that we would pay for it later and now we are screwed. Meanwhile, he's hoping Romney is elected so he can "get rid of unemployment so people have to work. That's why we can't hire!". Yeah, like I want those people on my team.

State: Our budget is balanced primarily with property taxes, so we don't get the big swings like other states when it comes to the budget. We are, however, dealing with a lot of pent up payback in the form of using retirement as a casino bankroll. The stimulus was a big bailout to state and local governments that really softened the blow coming down the pipe. Now it's gone and with the economy (flat is the new up) stable but shaky we're on the edge of making some touch choices. The state hid it's liabilities (like Greece) and balanced budgets using Wall Street shenanigans, so now our towns and state need to come up with money. Unfortunately we already have ridiculously high property taxes. With the coming Medicare crunch (federal government will pay a contribution vs benefit) it's going to get expensive for the states, and NH is ill prepared to handle it. Education spending is not enough and yet much too much. A lot of government employees (my wife is a teacher) are taking too much and almost all don't pay enough for their benefits. This is going to sink us and lead us either into charter schools, selling off our infrastructure, or a statewide sales/income tax. Short term: Better than most. Long term: Not any better than most.

Federal:  I'll save it for the ashcan.


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## save$ (Aug 31, 2012)

The economy is only as good as the budget.  If the books arn't balanced and you are borrowing money everyday, sooner or later there will be a crash with a very hard landing.   Even if you personally are living within you means, you too will get sucked into black hole of the national debt.  
Things here in Maine are moving very slow, but we don't seem to be sliding backward. Costs are going up. Income is not.  We educate our kids only to have them leave here for places where they can get a better income and offer their kids more.  The cost of energy and 30 yrs. of socialism has this state as being one of the least friendly to do business in or as a place to retire.


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## btuser (Aug 31, 2012)

We've had less Socialism in the past 30 years than we did in the previous 30 before 1980.  The debt at the local/state level is the result of the drop in federal reimbursements to the state local level.


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## SmokeyTheBear (Aug 31, 2012)

Well, I get to watch the tourist part of the economy and based upon an informal canvas of the area parking lots on the day after check in things are still in the hopper, this is confirmed by the number of eateries that have been going for a long while closing or cutting hours.  The same places still have hiring signs up that do hire from time to time and then usually let anyone who has been there for awhile go.  I'm waiting for some of the big boxes to cut back as in closing stores.  Inventory has been reduced and the parking lots are not that full.


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## webbie (Aug 31, 2012)

Economy here is very good - largely based upon the arts, small manufacturing, college and education, etc......

Lots of people choose to live here - a large percentage of imports as opposed to natives. My guess would be 40% imports. Either way, the longstanding traditions of innovation, hard work, education, inclusivity, etc. all work together to make for a fairly decent "no bubble" economy. I think unemployment in MA. is less than 6% or so.....


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## BrotherBart (Aug 31, 2012)

The only thing that happened here in Fed and Fed contractor country is a lot of foreclosures when people walked on the overpriced McMansions they built on credit they shouldn't have been given. Case in point is a huge house a half mile away on five acres originally bought new by a one man, one truck sheetrocker with five kids. Price: $1,400,000. Foreclosure sale price: $600,000.

Because most everybody around here works for the Feds, works for a Fed contractor or gets their business from people that do it has been stable except for property values. Which brought a much needed Come To Jaysus Moment to wildly spending local government. .Food, energy and medical inflation is the same as everywhere else. Going up just like always.

Now if "sequestration" comes about. There may be four of us out here in this development still living in our houses. We are the retired ones. I need a new car but am holding out. Could be a lot of nice ones on the market by year end.


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## begreen (Aug 31, 2012)

I have to say that although things are doing ok here, I noticed an awful lot of vacant storefronts in Seattle's Pioneer Square. I'm seeing the same in our small local town. Many more than say 5 years ago. Part of this is a demographic change. Pioneer Square seems to be somewhat abandoned by the city and left for the homeless and tourists. Locally it is just darn hard to keep a business going in a small town unless you market to the outside too.


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## Vinelife (Aug 31, 2012)

Yeah, you can't just keep spending without going bankrupt ...


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## webbie (Aug 31, 2012)

vinelife said:


> Yeah, you can't just keep spending without going bankrupt ...


 
We said that about my uncle.....my dad told us over and over that he was broke due to all his vices (many of which shall go unnamed, but eat - drink - and be very merry).........

Guess what? He died at least a decade ago and his kids are still spending his money.
You never know when or if the party ends. Chances are YOUR party ends way before THE BIG PARTY. As it should be.


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## begreen (Aug 31, 2012)

Actually, what really set our economy back was gambling and politics. The wall street and the banks gambled and lost, but shifted their debt to the US basically by blackmail and chicanery.

But you are right on another front. War, waged for ideological reasons, tax cuts and a bogus prescription drug plan were all done on credit for political gain. And now the bill is due.


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## Delta-T (Aug 31, 2012)

I just checked my wallet...economy doing ok here. Price of pistachios is pretty high though, I just can't see paying +$8/lb for nuts you still gotta shell, but I'm just about sick of peanuts.


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## fossil (Aug 31, 2012)

Doing better here...not a remarkable pace of improvement, but noticeable.  I know a number of folks in the construction trades, and they say their business is picking up...finally, after some really bad years.  Homeowners are spending on improvements...decks, etc.  Some of the housing developments that were all laid out with streets & utilities a few years ago that never sold anything more than a model home have been bought out of foreclosure by other developers who now are ready to bet on the local market.  New homes are going up on lots that have stood vacant for 4 years.  Home prices are inching back up as the home buying comes back to life.  I'd say we're OK, all things considered, and headed in the right direction.  Rick


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## Backwoods Savage (Aug 31, 2012)

Our township is booming. Recently 2 men found jobs and there has been one permit issued for a new house. Sad though are all the empty homes and most of those were built within the last 20 years.


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## rkshed (Aug 31, 2012)

BrotherBart said:


> The only thing that happened here in Fed and Fed contractor country is a lot of foreclosures when people walked on the overpriced McMansions they built on credit they shouldn't have been given.


 
"Shouldn't have taken".
A little personal responsibility please,,,
No guns were used in the signing of that mortgage.


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## BrotherBart (Aug 31, 2012)

rkshed said:


> "Shouldn't have taken".
> A little personal responsibility please,,,
> No guns were used in the signing of that mortgage.


 
There is always that. But those guys in a mortgage company meeting room can make a car salesmen in that little closing room look like rookies.


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## SmokeyTheBear (Aug 31, 2012)

BrotherBart said:


> There is always that. But those guys in a mortgage company meeting room can make a car salesmen in that little closing room look like rookies.


 
Only if you let them.


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## Dix (Aug 31, 2012)

rkshed said:


> "Shouldn't have taken".
> A little personal responsibility please,,,
> No guns were used in the signing of that mortgage.


 
Yes there were. Big time.

I went in to correct an over draft issue at the bank a few years ago and the "salesman's" first response was to try to sell me a HELOC. even when I explained the situation (very minor to fix, it was a $200 over draft  issue that I could resolve in a matter of days) again, and again, he pushed the HELOC as a solution  .

Heard a good quote from a friend a few weeks ago. "Those that have it want to keep it, and don't want those that don't have it to get it". Oh so true.


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## billb3 (Aug 31, 2012)

Local economy just got another death knell in Gov't regulations and  I've lost 10 more accounts since the end of July.
House two doors down just foreclosed and the house next door the guy walked away from. I've been cutting that lawn just to keep it less attractive to the rabbits.
Closing this 32 year old business is staring me in the face.


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## BrotherBart (Aug 31, 2012)

billb3 said:


> Local economy just got another death knell in Gov't regulations and I've lost 10 more accounts since the end of July.
> House two doors down just foreclosed and the house next door the guy walked away from. I've been cutting that lawn just to keep it less attractive to the rabbits.
> Closing this 32 year old business is staring me in the face.


 
What regulation and business is that?


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## MasterMech (Sep 1, 2012)

billb3 said:


> Local economy just got another death knell in Gov't regulations and I've lost 10 more accounts since the end of July.
> House two doors down just foreclosed and the house next door the guy walked away from. I've been cutting that lawn just to keep it less attractive to the rabbits.
> Closing this 32 year old business is staring me in the face.


 
More than a couple guys around here are contracted by the banks to mow/maintain foreclosed properties. They sure aren't maintained to the same standard a homeowner would demand but they do get paid.


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## billb3 (Sep 5, 2012)

BrotherBart said:


> What regulation and business is that?


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnuson–Stevens_Fishery_Conservation_and_Management_Act


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## billb3 (Sep 5, 2012)

MasterMech said:


> More than a couple guys around here are contracted by the banks to mow/maintain foreclosed properties. They sure aren't maintained to the same standard a homeowner would demand but they do get paid.


I wish they did that here.
I'm not doing any fancy job that's for sure. Just knocked down enough so that when I do  start riding through dozens of rabbits don't go hopping and bouncing through the tall grass ahead of me . ( and they go somewhere else to build their fuzzy grey nests, hopefully far far away)


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## Adios Pantalones (Sep 5, 2012)

SmokeyTheBear said:


> Only if you let them.


There were a lot of weird downright illegal dealings- switching front pages of documents, robo-signed documents, etc- in addition to people taking loans they could not afford and banks giving loans to people they did not fully vet because they KNEW they'd be repackaging and selling that risk before it bore bad fruit.


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## Jags (Sep 5, 2012)

In my position I have the ability to keep a pulse on a fairly large arena.  Basically IL, WI, and IA.  I see regional differences that swing both up and down.  The Rockford IL area is still fairly depressed as far as jobs and construction goes, yet Chicago and some of the burbs are picking back up robustly.  Southern WI sucks, yet the North east portion is picking up.  Iowa was almost unaffected from the down turn with the exception of housing starts and commercial work slowing.  Both are picking back up.

With including two new stores in the last couple of years, my company is holding our own and actually improving profit by about 25% per yr since 2009.

We are on our way back folks.  Its going to be slow going, but we are crawling in the right direction.  2015 will be the new 2006.


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## rkshed (Sep 5, 2012)

Doing The Dixie Eyed Hustle said:


> Yes there were. Big time.
> 
> I went in to correct an over draft issue at the bank a few years ago and the "salesman's" first response was to try to sell me a HELOC. even when I explained the situation (very minor to fix, it was a $200 over draft issue that I could resolve in a matter of days) again, and again, he pushed the HELOC as a solution  .
> 
> Heard a good quote from a friend a few weeks ago. "Those that have it want to keep it, and don't want those that don't have it to get it". Oh so true.


 
I understand but if the od didn't happen in the first place...
Look, everyone needs to make a living and I don't begrudge anyone their sales tactics, but don't you feel better or even a sense of triumph when you drive away from a car lot or any where you do business, knowing that you didn't drink the koolaid they were trying to sell you?
If more people took responsibility for their actions and didn't act like lemmings to the sea every time a new Mcburger comes out, we would all be better off for it.
I shall now yield the floor....


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## Dix (Sep 5, 2012)

rkshed said:


> I understand but if the od didn't happen in the first place...
> Look, everyone needs to make a living and I don't begrudge anyone their sales tactics, but don't you feel better or even a sense of triumph when you drive away from a car lot or any where you do business, knowing that you didn't drink the koolaid they were trying to sell you?
> If more people took responsibility for their actions and didn't act like lemmings to the sea every time a new Mcburger comes out, we would all be better off for it.
> I shall now yield the floor....


 
OD's happen, often due to circumstances beyond peoples control.

I'm gonna jump off of a cliff now. But first, I'm gonna eat a Mcburger, for, for gits & shiggles.

I do begrudge sales tactics, it's how an inflated "things are good, deregulate more" caused a big portion of this mess.


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## Dix (Sep 5, 2012)

Jags said:


> In my position I have the ability to keep a pulse on a fairly large arena. Basically IL, WI, and IA. I see regional differences that swing both up and down. The Rockford IL area is still fairly depressed as far as jobs and construction goes, yet Chicago and some of the burbs are picking back up robustly. Southern WI sucks, yet the North east portion is picking up. Iowa was almost unaffected from the down turn with the exception of housing starts and commercial work slowing. Both are picking back up.
> 
> With including two new stores in the last couple of years, my company is holding our own and actually improving profit by about 25% per yr since 2009.
> 
> We are on our way back folks. Its going to be slow going, but we are crawling in the right direction. 2015 will be the new 2006.


 
I agree Jags.... my self included. But we gotta keep at it. And it's gonna be one helluva fight.


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## jharkin (Sep 5, 2012)

Jags said:


> We are on our way back folks. Its going to be slow going, but we are crawling in the right direction. 2015 will be the new 2006.


 
You mean another unsustainable growth bubble just waiting to crash and burn?


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## Dix (Sep 5, 2012)

jharkin said:


> You mean another unsustainable growth bubble just waiting to crash and burn?


 
Makes popcorn.


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## webbie (Sep 5, 2012)

jharkin said:


> You mean another unsustainable growth bubble just waiting to crash and burn?


 
Nah. If we don't grow too fast, we won't crash too quickly. I hope we learned the Real Estate lesson. It seems that, based on Facebook, many people (most) have learned the dot-com lesson.

My prediction is that the next bubble is medical technology (bio-tech, genetics). However, like the dot-com, it is based on reality....but it will get ahead of itself and probably cause some investment problems.

But for now, I say Buy Buy Buy...and, hopefully, they will be able to heal heal heal. Some amazing stuff happening. I used to say I was glad to be around for the birth of the internet, but the next generation is gonna say they were glad to be around for the full unlocking of the genetic codes.


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## SmokeyTheBear (Sep 5, 2012)

jharkin said:


> You mean another unsustainable growth bubble just waiting to crash and burn?


 


webbie said:


> Nah. If we don't grow too fast, we won't crash too quickly. I hope we learned the Real Estate lesson. .... snip


 
Not to burst anyone's bubble but the real estate bubble is a recurring theme.   It happens when you compensate those who write the loans on the amount of the loan they write and have no provision for claw back.

The same situation of what are essentially bad loans on day one has been seen in all aspects of the loan universe.  The biggest one is in the making at this moment.  Massive educational loans with little actual prospect for payoff.


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## webbie (Sep 5, 2012)

SmokeyTheBear said:


> Not to burst anyone's bubble but the real estate bubble is a recurring theme. It happens when you compensate those who write the loans on the amount of the loan they write and have no provision for claw back.
> 
> The same situation of what are essentially bad loans on day one has been seen in all aspects of the loan universe. The biggest one is in the making at this moment. Massive educational loans with little actual prospect for payoff.


 
True - but, firstly, the education loans don't start to total in the trillions....as does real estate, so the scope is somewhat different.  Student loan debt, all told, is about one trillion...most of which is at least "decent" debt, so it cannot rock the boat like the MANY trillions in the last crash.

Real Estate debt is closer to 15 Trillion. Those are fairly big numbers. But it's not a question of the debt - but rather the inflated part of it......

I agree that Real Estate and many other commodities have recurring "waves", but I would not call them all bubbles in the traditional sense. My boat can deal with some decent sized waves, but should a 40 footer "rogue" come along, I'll be toast. 

I've seen at least 3, and maybe more, big real estate bubbles....but nothing compared to this one. If we don't let it get that far out of hand, then the return to earth will be softer. IMHO, anyway.


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## jharkin (Sep 5, 2012)

At the risk of sending this to the can.... I think the fundamental flaw in the reasoning (and this is not anyone in particular here.. im saying civilization in general)  is the assumption that we can grow forever on this finite planet - even slow growth.

Curing every disease is great... but what if then we cant feed the extra 2-3 billion people we end up with?

Not to mention finding enough coal and oil to keep the worlds factory... err China... pumping out the trinkets we all gotta have.

And so on...


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## BrotherBart (Sep 5, 2012)

webbie said:


> My prediction is that the next bubble is medical technology (bio-tech, genetics)


 
Yep.


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## BrotherBart (Sep 5, 2012)

jharkin said:


> At the risk of sending this to the can.... I think the fundamental flaw in the reasoning (and this is not anyone in particular here.. im saying civilization in general) is the assumption that we can grow forever on this finite planet - even slow growth.
> 
> Curing every disease is great... but what if then we cant feed the extra 2-3 billion people we end up with?
> 
> ...


 
No problem. Us boomers are falling like flies.


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## SmokeyTheBear (Sep 5, 2012)

jharkin said:


> At the risk of sending this to the can.... I think the fundamental flaw in the reasoning (and this is not anyone in particular here.. im saying civilization in general) is the assumption that we can grow forever on this finite planet - even slow growth.
> 
> Curing every disease is great... but what if then we cant feed the extra 2-3 billion people we end up with?
> 
> ...


 

Well you see it goes like this, we are supposed to be smart enough to get off this rock or we simply die off.

The planet has one and only one job to recycle everything on it including us.


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## webbie (Sep 5, 2012)

jharkin said:


> At the risk of sending this to the can.... I think the fundamental flaw in the reasoning (and this is not anyone in particular here.. im saying civilization in general) is the assumption that we can grow forever on this finite planet - even slow growth.
> 
> Curing every disease is great... but what if then we cant feed the extra 2-3 billion people we end up with?
> 
> And so on...


 
I'm an optimist. Food is not a problem. Energy is not a problem (speaking long term).

The "growth" I foresee is growth in what you and I spend to be healthier and to cure the sick and infirm. That requires vastly less resources than, for instance, growing by building bigger houses or bigger SUVs.

"Growth" does not always mean more resources. If we work less, we probably consume less. A computer/tv/tablet of the future is likely to use 1/4 or less the energy of a old TV. 

Efficiency is the key to the future. I think the future is bright.


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## jharkin (Sep 6, 2012)

Webbie-

I'll move my response to the current line of argument over to the can so we dont have to kick this thread.

.......

To get us back on track I will answer the OP's question.  Around me, things dont look _too_ bad. I see new construction ongoing again. My company only let a few people go last year and Ive heard most folks have found new positions. The value of my house is still in the tank, but so far I'm not underwater. I see extreme difficulty for folks in my parents generation who weren't able to protect their retirement nest egg, and 20 somethings who still cant find jobs out of school. Lots of small business still going under. Those of us in between (30s/40s) with advanced education and who were able to hold onto decent jobs at stable companies through the worst of it seem to be doing ok.


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## Jags (Sep 6, 2012)

jharkin said:


> You mean another unsustainable growth bubble just waiting to crash and burn?


 
Hmmm....I am trying to pick my direction as to not kick this to the can....

The housing bubble that burst was a wicked, unregulated friggen mess that I HOPE we are smart enough to avoid happening again.  The dotcom bubble was another wet dream where peeps had "millions" worth of websites with no capital.  Does not compute.  The next guy that comes along and does it better, faster, with more buttons, wins. "POP" goes the bubble.

The current growth pattern is not a bubble.  It is typically sensible growth with some mfg. coming back to the states.  Slowly building housing markets (hey, the increase in population has to live somewhere) and commercial stuff.

Our fossil fuel energy sources ARE finite.  I have been on that side of the argument for a looong time.  As in the past, when hurdles need to be overcome - we do it.  The next big thing in batteries, or solar, or bio, or raising green slime to produce fuels.... makes things a game changer.  You don't know what is around the corner (nor do I) that will change the game.  Autos? Heck, that happened just a little over a hundred years ago.  Computers - pretty recent invention in the scheme of things.  You get the picture that I am trying to paint (I hope).

To suggest that we need to stagnate and come to a grinding halt ain't fixing a thing.  We had the same "food" concerns years ago.  When we were raising 80 bushel per acre corn.  Now its 180 (not counting failed years, like this one).  We have a tendency to figure things out.  It is what has perpetuated humans to the point we are at now, and I don't really see that changing.

We are coming back, folks.  Take slow, deep breathes and keep on keep'in on.


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## smokinj (Sep 6, 2012)

Its my best year ever already with well over a 1/4 left.


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## Jags (Sep 6, 2012)

smokinj said:


> Its my best year ever already with well over a 1/4 left.


 
Now THATS what I am talking about.


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## Adios Pantalones (Sep 6, 2012)

smokinj said:


> Its my best year ever already with well over a 1/4 left.


Kick arse, SJ


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## SmokeyTheBear (Sep 6, 2012)

webbie said:


> True - but, firstly, the education loans don't start to total in the trillions....as does real estate, so the scope is somewhat different. Student loan debt, all told, is about one trillion...most of which is at least "decent" debt, so it cannot rock the boat like the MANY trillions in the last crash.
> 
> Real Estate debt is closer to 15 Trillion. Those are fairly big numbers. But it's not a question of the debt - but rather the inflated part of it......
> 
> ...


 

Actually the education loan situation is:

1. getting worse
2. tying up dollars
3. preventing those with them from being able to either afford that housing (that someone thinks is coming back),
4. screwing up their credit ratings to the point they won't even qualify for sub prime loans (you remember them don't you). 

That is provided the holders of those loans actually can find a job (want fries with that) that pays a decent wage.

There are a lot more foreclosures that will hit the market.

I've seen several real estate bubbles and they pale in comparison to the current mess however I don't think most people understand how bad the current mess still is.

But it isn't just real estate bubbles that cause issues, consumer and commercial loan missteps can also dump the economy.


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## Jags (Sep 6, 2012)

SmokeyTheBear said:


> 3. ... housing (that someone thinks is coming back),


 
Slowly, but factually accurate.



SmokeyTheBear said:


> I've seen several real estate bubbles and they pale in comparison to the current mess however I don't think most people understand how bad the current mess still is.


 
The big shake up is done.  Not that there couldn't be small tremors, but we are essentially at the bottom and starting to climb back out.  The board feet of drywall being made/purchased is slowly increasing.  This doesn't happen unless construction is consuming.


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## SmokeyTheBear (Sep 6, 2012)

Well let's see:

Through 2011: http://www.statisticbrain.com/foreclosure-home-sales-statistics/

and the July 2012 foreclosure rate heat map:  http://www.realtytrac.com/trendcenter/trend.html

Still no look all that good Jags.


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## Adios Pantalones (Sep 6, 2012)

Very available student loans drive UP the cost of education. When students are more likely to take a big loan, colleges will charge more.


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## Jags (Sep 6, 2012)

SmokeyTheBear said:


> Still no look all that good Jags.


 
It ain't all homes, Smokey.  Commercial is trending up.


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## SmokeyTheBear (Sep 6, 2012)

Ah the commercial side still needs customers and those customers have to have a reason and the means to purchase. 

I've been watching the parking lots (and spend a bit of time) at a number of places and wondering who is going to close first if not at the same time.

Now I understand that I'm in Maine and may not be seeing the entire commercial picture but I also haven't been hearing any long glowing screeds from the MSM either.


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## webbie (Sep 6, 2012)

SmokeyTheBear said:


> Actually the education loan situation is:
> 
> 1. getting worse
> 2. tying up dollars
> ...


 
I'm not doubting that it is a real problem - and, in fact, it is being addressed (or attempted to be) in various ways - BUT, I'm failing to see the scale thing. In a country worth 200 Trillion - with a yearly turnover of 15-20 Trillion, it seems difficult for 1 trillion in (mostly) good debt to create a crash.

IMHO, the real problem was again the unleashing of "private sector" loan sharks onto the unsuspecting public. That is, there has been an explosion in for-profit colleges and schools of all types, and they took advantage of the Fed. Loan guarantees to hang balls and chains on a generation...

Lots of these schools targeted veterans (lots of them with access to GI bills) to obtain $$$ from the Gubment.

Be all that as it may, it sounds like a lot of misery, but not earth shattering when compared to the vastness of the US Economy.


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## webbie (Sep 6, 2012)

SmokeyTheBear said:


> Well let's see:
> 
> Through 2011: http://www.statisticbrain.com/foreclosure-home-sales-statistics/
> 
> ...


 
Foreclosures are a FAR lagging indicator.

I remember right here on Hearth.com - long discussions in 2007 and 2008 when many of our buddies here claimed things were not so bad because the foreclosure rate was so low. This was well after the crash had started, but it took a couple years for folks to know about it.

The same happens on the far end. Those who have hung on in the ridiculous hope that things would improve vastly (they did improve, just not vastly...nor can they even do so) now have to bite the bullet.

Also, banks and other institutions delayed foreclosures - it looks better on the books to let them stay as "good" loans and only clamp down on a percentage of them each year. 

IMHO, anyway.


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## Jags (Sep 6, 2012)

webbie said:


> IMHO, anyway.


 
I think you are about spot on, Craig.  The crash started at the end of 2005 and into 2006.  2006 was the biggest year we have had in history (my co.) - and we KNEW is was about to tip over the edge (had actually been prepping since 2005 - saw it coming).

We (my company) are at the leading edge of what is coming at us for the housing/commercial markets.  We are looking at a slow climbing hill in front of us.


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## SmokeyTheBear (Sep 6, 2012)

Actually webbie the foreclosure mess was a well known entity in 2006 while folks were still trying to get everything they could from the real estate market, it was during 2006 that home sales started to slow and prices started to correct.

You wouldn't have gotten me to say that things weren't so bad in 2006.

You have to play out the educational loan situation in light of current economic possibilities (student loans have traditionally had a problem with defaults) first the loans remove money that can be used for other purposes from the money supply, then they can make it difficult and in some cases impossible for the person with the loan to participate in the one activity that drives a very large fraction of the economy, the purchase of living quarters. Then since it is so easy to get them (sound familiar?) schools have no incentive to control what they charge (this starts the spiral).

Sort of like the US debt situation, eventually it becomes real money.


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## webbie (Sep 6, 2012)

SmokeyTheBear said:


> in some cases impossible for the person with the loan to participate in the one activity that drives a very large fraction of the economy, the purchase of living quarters. Then since it is so easy to get them (sound familiar?) schools have no incentive to control what they charge (this starts the spiral).
> 
> Sort of like the US debt situation, eventually it becomes real money.


 
It wouldn't pain me to see the "every person should own a house" model of America transition to a more reasonable one. It will be painful while it occurs, but so many young folks move around these days that owning is sometimes a detriment to their finances in many ways.

If we could just get rid of oversized mortgage deductions at the same time, we'd be on a more solid footing.

You are correct in nothing what our economy WAS based upon...the larger question is what is will be in the future. Sure, everyone needs somewhere to live, but the House As ATM is over....and hopefully the era of McMansions and 0% down also.


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## SmokeyTheBear (Sep 6, 2012)

webbie said:


> It wouldn't pain me to see the "every person should own a house" model of America transition to a more reasonable one. It will be painful while it occurs, but so many young folks move around these days that owning is sometimes a detriment to their finances in many ways.
> 
> If we could just get rid of oversized mortgage deductions at the same time, we'd be on a more solid footing.
> 
> You are correct in nothing what our economy WAS based upon...the larger question is what is will be in the future. Sure, everyone needs somewhere to live, but the House As ATM is over....and hopefully the era of McMansions and 0% down also.


 

Nope both zero down and McMansions are still around.  Places are still soliciting home equity loans (which by themselves isn't really a problem see below last sentence).

Live well within your means and don't count your chickens before the eggs have hatched.

Now just what are you going to base the economy on?  So far all I've seen lately is smoke and mirrors.

There will be a problem (related to the use of loans) every decade or two.  People never learn from history and for sometime now the I want has overpowered the I need.


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## Jags (Sep 6, 2012)

webbie said:


> but the House As ATM is over....and hopefully the era of McMansions and 0% down also.


 
Agreed.  A good sign going forwards is a move back to more modest housing with energy efficiency very high on the list.  Also, smaller homes with more high end interiors are getting the nod.  Who the heck wants to clean 3500 sqft?

The "House as an ATM" was a facade anyhow.  The theory of "its worth what ever somebody is willing to pay" is part of what got us in this jam. It was a hyped up market.  I purchased my home a few years before the bubble.  I could have sold it for double what I paid.  My home is NOW valued about 5000 over what I purchased it for.  Basically inflation.  It appears that I paid an honest price.   Not everybody followed that logic.


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## firefighterjake (Sep 6, 2012)

I purchased my home a number of years ago for about $68,000 . . . a few years back I had a couple of realtors come through and they said with the renovations we had made it could easily sell for $150,000-$180,000 (less based on the renovations done . . . more based on the renovations we had planned which included a kitchen renovation and several other projects.) Hard to say what it would sell for now of course.

I do know that my wife and I are about 3 years out from paying it off . . . and about 9 or 10 years from my "soft" retirement (I can retire at that point . . . but will in reality either continue to work or will find a new career as I will need health insurance). At that point we plan to consider "down-grading" in size . . . and we've already started talking about our "retirement home" -- keeping in mind that we want it smaller for ease of cleaning, heating, taxes, etc.


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