# Oil prices



## mass_burner (Nov 8, 2014)

OK, for us supplemental wood burners, where is this oil market going? I am sitting at 1/8 tank and need to make a buy in the next month.


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## gzecc (Nov 8, 2014)

We just bought 100 gallons. Paid 330 gal. Use it for DHW only.  Probably could have waited longer. Hindsight really is accurate.


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## Doug MacIVER (Nov 8, 2014)

mass_burner said:


> OK, for us supplemental wood burners, where is this oil market going? I am sitting at 1/8 tank and need to make a buy in the next month.


demand should only drive price up. slower than past years. Nat Gas up roughly$1.00 in the last week. latest vortex, if long lasting as they say, will push it again. early demand will dent inventories in both fuels, price of both will follow. that is jmo, but even the gov't weather service was not calling for significant cold in Nov.


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## mass_burner (Nov 8, 2014)

Yes, I last quote I got was 3.25 on Tuesday. I was thinking of ordering 100 gals and then going long heating oil ETF in case the price goes up.


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## Doug MacIVER (Nov 8, 2014)

mass_burner said:


> Yes, I last quote I got was 3.25 on Tuesday. I was thinking of ordering 100 gals and then going long heating oil ETF in case the price goes up.


American Fuel in Hanover $2.92/150gal. Duval in Abington about the same.


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## Bobbin (Nov 8, 2014)

We received a fill on 10/1/14 for the house tank.  I wasn't able to find the slip, but the last fill was in late April '14.  We passed on a "top off" for the barn (my shop) because prices seemed to be on a downward trend and there was plenty of oil in the tank.  I see we're due for a "top off" next week and we may hold off as prices seem to be dropping and we're able to pay in full upon delivery.  This is good news since the good man has been a "lazy bones" about setting a date with yours truly and "getting busy" on the wood to be split and stacked!  I am pointedly not using the stoves at present; makes more sense to keep the thermostats on the low side and conserve the firewood for the really cold months!


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## Chimney Smoke (Nov 8, 2014)

It's around $2.75 here in southern Maine.  My tank is at 5/8 right now but I usually check the prices weekly.  When they start going up again I'll fill the tank and that should be it until next summer.


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## Dix (Nov 8, 2014)

Bestest Buddy paid $3.03 per gallon for 75 to top off her 225 gallon tank this week. It'll last her until mid January for heat & HW.

My tank sits empty. No need put anything in it.

Electric HWH and the 2 stoves get it done.

Tomorrow sees both chineys cleaned, the too bigs cut to size, and a whole lot of splitting & stacking going on. The too bigs are atleast 1 year split / cut/ etc. Gonna be alot of firewood here in Dixie Land


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## Whitepine2 (Nov 8, 2014)

Doing The Dixie Eyed Hustle said:


> Bestest Buddy paid $3.03 per gallon for 75 to top off her 225 gallon tank this week. It'll last her until mid January for heat & HW.
> 
> My tank sits empty. No need put anything in it.
> 
> ...


Best to keep tank full,stops condensation and rust just my 2 cents. Now that price is down good time to fill up just like money in the bank.


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## Dix (Nov 8, 2014)

Whitepine2 said:


> Best to keep tank full,stops condensation and rust just my 2 cents. Now that price is down good time to fill up just like money in the bank.



I don't use my oil furnace. Haven't in 6 years.

At $3 a gallon my 550 tank would be beyond my range.


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## mass_burner (Nov 9, 2014)

Doug MacIVER said:


> American Fuel in Hanover $2.92/150gal. Duval in Abington about the same.


Think I'm out of the service area for Hanover, I'll call and check. Thanks.


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## Fsappo (Nov 10, 2014)

From spending 7 years at an oil desk, I can say folks do the best checking once a week this time of year.  If it goes up even a penny, buy.  If your talking 150 gallons and your off by 1 or 2 cents, you cost yourself $2-$3 total.  Odds are as demand goes up, so will the prices.  Play the odds.  Sure, you may buy now at $3.00 and miss a chance to buy at $2.98, but that is better than waiting for the $2.98 and ending up paying $3.25.   Unless there is a crisis it will only go up a few cents a week at most, so you can gamble that extra week see if it drops again, but why go thru the trouble of saving two bucks and chancing missing a price check and paying $10 or $20 more.  In the fall, if it ticks up, buy.


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## btuser (Nov 11, 2014)

I'm rolling the dice.  My guess is oil is headed down or flat.  I've got 200 gallons to play with and an empty tank to fill.  Hoping to get to Jan 15.  Seems like it always dips about then.

I'm living on the edge!


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## peakbagger (Nov 11, 2014)

The cold snap in the Midwest and it spreading to the East for a week or so, I expect the demand is going to be going up.


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## BrotherBart (Nov 11, 2014)

btuser said:


> My guess is oil is headed down or flat.



You got it. Brent crude spot just hit a four year low. And it, not WTI is driving the boat right now. And OPEC is opening the spigot to maintain revenues in the face of the low prices.

A price war at the wellhead instead of at the pump. What a concept.


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## BrotherBart (Nov 11, 2014)

NE heating oil is a fart in a windstorm as far as oil demand goes.


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## billb3 (Nov 11, 2014)

I've been watching this site: http://www.newenglandoil.com/massachusetts/zone6.asp?x=0 for the last two years on and off.
The last week to ten days prices have held here to within a nickel either way. I won't mention which one has had the lowest price but they have been floating back and forth between 2.83 and 2.79 for almost two weeks.
I don't buy from any of the businesses  listed there though.

The guy I buy from will do a hundred gallon minimum if I pay the driver with a check.


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## Whitepine2 (Nov 11, 2014)

BrotherBart said:


> NE heating oil is a fart in a windstorm as far as oil demand goes.


That's because were all burning wood in NE and wave at oil trucks that drive by. LOL LOL HA HA HA


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## BrotherBart (Nov 11, 2014)

Less than six percent of homes in the US heat with oil and they are virtually all in the North East.


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## Dix (Nov 11, 2014)

I will never forget my Mom putting in the coal stoves at the end of the 70's.

"Oil is 12 cents a gallon, that's outrageous !! I'm going to do some thing about  this !!"

And she did


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## Whitepine2 (Nov 11, 2014)

BrotherBart said:


> Less than six percent of homes in the US heat with oil and they are virtually all in the North East.


Yup I got 100's of gals.from folk's in my town when the gas line came in,sometimes 5 to 600 from the underground tanks yahoo free for the getting. Made a big score when a boat went aground CG wanted
fuel pumped off about 2000 and got paid to boot,the good old days.


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## peakbagger (Nov 12, 2014)

The local New England heating oil prices are set by demand, there are very strict and expensive laws in place for firms bringing oil into the ocean terminals so few companies serve the region. The oil terminals used to store a lot of oil but switched over to just in time deliveries. Especially in winter when there is poor weather off shore, the deliveries stop or slow down significantly and the prices tend to skyrocket. Even if deliveries are normal and there is a cold snap, folks who waited to fill their tanks all decide to fill up when it gets cold and that can cause a price spike.


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## Fsappo (Nov 12, 2014)

BrotherBart said:


> NE heating oil is a fart in a windstorm as far as oil demand goes.



But street price is somewhat set by the folks delivering the oil to the home.  They check each other, probe the waters, feign this way and that.  All want to see prices go up, all don't want to be the highest.  Kind of how some gas stations set the pricing.  So cold coming to the NE doesn't impact the world, the USA or hardly the east coast when it comes to fuel oil prices, but it certainly will change the street price in the cold areas.


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## Fsappo (Nov 12, 2014)

BrotherBart said:


> Less than six percent of homes in the US heat with oil and they are virtually all in Central NY.


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## stoveguy2esw (Nov 12, 2014)

A price war at the wellhead instead of at the pump. What a concept.

thats where the "price war" should be IMHO. not in the "futures market" on wall street


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## Fsappo (Nov 13, 2014)

stoveguy2esw said:


> A price war at the wellhead instead of at the pump. What a concept.
> 
> thats where the "price war" should be IMHO. not in the "futures market" on wall street



I think if you want to buy oil as an investment, you should be forced to take delivery within 7 days of purchase in wet gallons.  I guess the same goes for everything we consume that is traded like Monopoly money while toying with the day to day living expenses of us workin folks.


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## stoveguy2esw (Nov 13, 2014)

Fsappo said:


> I think if you want to buy oil as an investment, you should be forced to take delivery within 7 days of purchase in wet gallons.  I guess the same goes for everything we consume that is traded like Monopoly money while toying with the day to day living expenses of us workin folks.


 


 yes sir you can very much "get an Amen"


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## BrotherBart (Nov 13, 2014)

Yeah. Futures were a good idea as a planning hedge for those that actually take delivery and use the stuff. But have gotten totally out of hand. I would love to see 100,000 barrels dumped in the basement of J.P.Morgan's office building in NYC.


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## Fsappo (Nov 13, 2014)

Mike, answer the email I sent you


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## Fsappo (Nov 13, 2014)

BrotherBart said:


> Yeah. Futures were a good idea as a planning hedge for those that actually take delivery and use the stuff. But have gotten totally out of hand. I would love to see 100,000 barrels dumped in the basement of J.P.Morgan's office building in NYC.



They would pump it into the Hudson river and burn it off


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## stoveguy2esw (Nov 13, 2014)

Fsappo said:


> Mike, answer the email I sent you


 


which addy did you send it to?


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## mass_burner (Nov 15, 2014)

Fsappo said:


> I think if you want to buy oil as an investment, you should be forced to take delivery within 7 days of purchase in wet gallons.  I guess the same goes for everything we consume that is traded like Monopoly money while toying with the day to day living expenses of us workin folks.


Does that go for all the folks who have commodity positions in their 401k portfolios? I'll need clear a space for all that oil, gold, silver, gas, rare earth metas etc.


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## mass_burner (Nov 16, 2014)

Ended up getting 100 gal at 3.15. Brings me up to 3/4 tank. Should hooefully get me to Feb.


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## webbie (Nov 16, 2014)

I invest in oil and gas contract ETF's.......

It's the only investment that's a sure thing if one has patience. Example - you buy USO or BOIL today. Is anyone here going to claim that sometime in the next two years oil and gas won't be higher than today? 

Nothing wrong with investing in commodities...the problem is only when they allowed too much leverage.
If I owned an airline I think I'd hedge a bunch at current pricing. Yeah, it could go down. But at some point you run up against the reality of how much energy (work) that the oil gets done and also the costs for present exploration and development. 

IMHO, of course.


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## btuser (Nov 27, 2014)

Nov 27: Opec decides no cut to production.
Price falls 8% in one day. 
Oil at 2009 levels.

Folks, we are witnessing some crazy stuff.  The elephants are fighting.


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## webbie (Nov 27, 2014)

btuser said:


> Nov 27: Opec decides no cut to production.
> Price falls 8% in one day.
> Oil at 2009 levels.
> 
> Folks, we are witnessing some crazy stuff.  The elephants are fighting.



Nat Gas higher - electric rates going up 25% in MA and RI - because it's mostly now based on Nat Gas.


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## mass_burner (Nov 27, 2014)

Yes, I saw that the other day when checking my retirement accounts. UHN had just crossed early 2010 support level. I see it going lower in the near term.


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## btuser (Nov 27, 2014)

webbie said:


> Nat Gas higher - electric rates going up 25% in MA and RI - because it's mostly now based on Nat Gas.


Northeast needs a pipeline.


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## begreen (Nov 27, 2014)

btuser said:


> Nov 27: Opec decides no cut to production.
> Price falls 8% in one day.
> Oil at 2009 levels.
> 
> Folks, we are witnessing some crazy stuff.  The elephants are fighting.


Cheap oil. It's Obama's fault. LOL Texas sweet at $67!


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## BrotherBart (Nov 27, 2014)

Yep. Concerned about that Exxon stock. They could support exploration down to $69 a barrel. Last time I looked that was more than $67.


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## btuser (Nov 27, 2014)

BrotherBart said:


> Yep. Concerned about that Exxon stock. They could support exploration down to $69 a barrel. Last time I looked that was more than $67.


Might be good for them long-term (albeit painful short term). Shake out the less-than-well-capitalized crowd.  I'm thinking there's going to be a big debate come January about ending the export ban.  Saudis would welcome it, since WTI would fetch more off shore and it would leave more room at Gulf refineries for their product.


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## BrotherBart (Nov 27, 2014)

The Gulf refineries will be sifting sand out of Canadian albumin. And blowing up at alarming rates due to pipe and unit corrosion.


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## Doug MacIVER (Nov 27, 2014)

begreen said:


> Cheap oil. It's Obama's fault. LOL Texas sweet at $67!


  ST,ST,ST,ST no political stuff you'll get this topic shutdown.


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## billb3 (Nov 27, 2014)

Doug MacIVER said:


> ST,ST,ST,ST no political stuff you'll get this topic shutdown.


just don't start with anything contrarian. 

I see WTI at $73.69 and Brent down to $77.75


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## BrotherBart (Nov 27, 2014)

This mornings spot prices yes.

But futures for WTI January delivery are at $68.92.


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## billb3 (Nov 28, 2014)

BrotherBart said:


> This mornings spot prices yes.
> 
> But futures for WTI January delivery are at $68.92.


Thank you for illustrating my point.
and that's a rather narrow range for the day.


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## woodgeek (Nov 28, 2014)

btuser said:


> Folks, we are witnessing some crazy stuff.  The elephants are fighting.



Yeah, in a battle of the Saudis versus the over-leveraged frackers, who do you think will go belly up first?


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## vinny11950 (Nov 28, 2014)

woodgeek said:


> Yeah, in a battle of the Saudis versus the over-leveraged frackers, who do you think will go belly up first?



Don't underestimate the ability of investors to buy junk debt hoping to hit a home run.  There is plenty of liquidity out there.


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## woodgeek (Nov 28, 2014)

True.  But they still need to find somebody to hold the bag.


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## vinny11950 (Nov 28, 2014)

http://www.businessweek.com/article...not-last-as-fracking-wells-lack-staying-power

Fracking wells don't last long.  There is a big argument in the industry as to whether production levels are sustainable in the long run.  Hard to know who to believe; the people saying it is (protecting their investments) or the doubters who point to the numbers and costs.  Maybe they just want people to believe long enough until someone else buys the "bag" and they can walk away.  But it sure looks like the Saudis want to inflict serious pain here to the frackers.


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## woodgeek (Nov 28, 2014)

Its a complex story.  I was on the fence re tight oil, but I have been increasingly convinced by the skeptics over the last few months.  My reasoning (1) the major oil cos have not gotten into the business....only debt-funded independent operators...and I figure the majors know the business better than anyone, and aren't shy about drilling holes. (2) we now have a lot of data about actual field resources and depletion rates in these fields.  (3) Despite oil being at $100/barrel for the last several years, the tight oil folks are as a group still underwater debt-wise.

To me, low oil prices look like a big boost for the US economy and balance of trade (and sectors like airlines, auto manufacturers, etc) and a total bloodbath for the (oil) frackers.  I would bet against the price staying low for an extended period (i.e. years).

The ace in the hole is that the frackers have been drilling and capping a lot of wells....spend the easy money drilling while they had access to it (because the oil price was high), they can always activate some capped wells to maintain cash flow as existing wells deplete.

After years of being boring, interesting times indeed.

Here is a long report.... http://shalebubble.org/drilling-deeper/

Bottom line....they said the EIA projections many have been taking as gospel used pretty rosy projections on existing shale plays and assumed the currently undeveloped plays would have similar productivity.  These ideas do not appear to be supported by the geology.


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## btuser (Nov 28, 2014)

Lll


woodgeek said:


> Yeah, in a battle of the Saudis versus the over-leveraged frackers, who do you think will go belly up first?


My guess is the Saudis will buy the junk bonds to keep the debt bomb from going off  (and killing the economy which will only lower oil prices further).  Payback will be Obama vetoing the Keystone pipeline.  Or the feds will classify it as "systemic risk".   

Lots of people will go broke and drilling will slow down, but I think the cat is out of the bag.


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## woodgeek (Nov 28, 2014)

@_@

I'll believe about the bagged cat when I see it in the funny papers, rather than the current coverage that portrays OPEC as a bunch of Keystone Kops struggling to maintain high prices in the face of the American Oil Juggernaut. 

LOL.


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## vinny11950 (Nov 28, 2014)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...ressure-oil-s-weakest-from-iran-to-shale.html

good article on Bloomberg on who is positioned for $60 barrel oil.  on the fracking front, the established and most experienced players who have wells already drilled can make money down to the low $40s.  but the smaller players trying out new fields, they need the higher prices.  it sounds like if the Saudis really want to slow the fracking crowd they are going to have to keep prices down for a few years.

is this doable?

it depends on economic activity in the rest of the world, especially China.  being that the world economy is getting worse, two years of low oil demand is not out of the question.  the Saudis probably see this as their best chance to inflict pain on the people harming their prices.

funny how looking at oil stories on this browser now has an Ad on this page asking me to "Invest in Oil and Gas Wells."


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## Doug MacIVER (Nov 28, 2014)

enjoy the law of supply and demand as long as it lasts. i'll be down $500-  800 on heating oil the year. then right away you start hearing about the gas tax. hey, we need to repair and keep keep the roads. mass gas  tax $.24/gal, $.184 feds (in mass we've got additional income from the pike and Tobin bridge). would love to see in depth accounting of where that really goes. will see it go up and I believe real quick. of course the tax increase will help in decreasing demand and making you forget about that road trip.


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## vinny11950 (Nov 29, 2014)

Doug MacIVER said:


> enjoy the law of supply and demand as long as it lasts. i'll be down $500-  800 on heating oil the year. then right away you start hearing about the gas tax. hey, we need to repair and keep keep the roads. mass gas  tax $.24/gal, $.184 feds (in mass we've got additional income from the pike and Tobin bridge). would love to see in depth accounting of where that really goes. will see it go up and I believe real quick. of course the tax increase will help in decreasing demand and making you forget about that road trip.



I see train trips in your future, Doug.  Maybe that high speed train between San Fran and LA that they are dreaming of building.


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## Doug MacIVER (Nov 29, 2014)

vinny11950 said:


> I see train trips in your future, Doug.  Maybe that high speed train between San Fran and LA that they are dreaming of building.


always took the train bos-nyc. never have been on a plane for that trip, the sf-la train sounds like a good one.


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## woodgeek (Nov 29, 2014)

without comment.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-03/god-crude-oil-trading-goes-all-crude-150-bet


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## Doug MacIVER (Nov 29, 2014)

the only benefactors in general are we the consumer, the producers are having fits. they'll adjust or do what they have to  reverse the pricing , the refiners and sellers are all in a fixed position.

aside from that I'm enjoying it. I've even stopped swearing when my burner kicks in for mom inlaw apartment.


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## firefighterjake (Nov 29, 2014)

All I know is anything that helps bring down the price of oil and gas is a good thing . . . just bought 100 gallons of heating oil . . . egads . . . a little less than $300 which was about half of my tank's capacity. I cannot imagine still paying for heating oil . . . even though we were not using an excessive amount (600 gallons in the last year that we were heating with oil exclusively.)


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## woodgeek (Nov 30, 2014)

One possibility here is higher natural gas and propane prices, but only if oil prices stay low for a year or two.  Both are 'side products' on many fracked wells.  Drillers are going after the high value liquid oil, and selling these lighter products on the side (or in places like N Dakota, just flaring the gas).  If a significant fraction of the fracked wells in service see reduced output (due to no $$ for drilling replacement wells) or because they are shut in, then we will likely see wholesale NG prices start to bump up, perhaps significantly. 

Of course, retail prices in some markets are so much higher, a bump in the residential wholesale price might not be that noticeable.

Moreover, since our PA shales are more gas than oil...this would be a pick-me-up for PA.


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## Doug MacIVER (Nov 30, 2014)

woodgeek said:


> One possibility here is higher natural gas and propane prices, but only if oil prices stay low for a year or two.  Both are 'side products' on many fracked wells.  Drillers are going after the high value liquid oil, and selling these lighter products on the side (or in places like N Dakota, just flaring the gas).  If a significant fraction of the fracked wells in service see reduced output (due to no $$ for drilling replacement wells) or because they are shut in, then we will likely see wholesale NG prices start to bump up, perhaps significantly.
> 
> Of course, retail prices in some markets are so much higher, a bump in the residential wholesale price might not be that noticeable.
> 
> Moreover, since our PA shales are more gas than oil...this would be a pick-me-up for PA.


Dec 1st tomorrow? hefty start on the annual drawdown. ahead of last year, so how bad the cold goes so will the market. like RE storage not the available source is the problem. .can't deliver enough to store against the draw.http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html


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## woodgeek (Nov 30, 2014)

Seems you guys need to lay some pipe up there.


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## Doug MacIVER (Nov 30, 2014)

almost looks like an agw chart?(sarc) let's see if we can bring up the Pa. hockey stick?!?
	

		
			
		

		
	





	

		
			
		

		
	
have a day


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## woodgeek (Nov 30, 2014)

Come and get it.






PA seems to be using about 1/3 of its production.


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## Doug MacIVER (Nov 30, 2014)

woodgeek said:


> Come and get it.
> 
> View attachment 146184
> 
> ...


dr. mann is at penn st. that must be where he found the hockey stick.


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## vinny11950 (Dec 13, 2014)

So oil is now below $60 a barrel and heading lower according to most analysts.  Without a Saudi cut in production, some even expect $45 a barrel.

They are really putting the screws to frackers and smaller oil producing countries that need higher prices.  I think they have two main reasons for this:

1)  slow / stop the shale producers and drive the smaller and less financially healthy producers out.  Already they are talking about buying junk debt from the frackers so they have rights.  I wonder if the Saudis (and their partners) would do this with their billions and own the assets out of bankruptcy.  They could then sit on them and wait for higher prices down the road.

2) Iran.  I think they want to force Iran to make a nuclear deal with the west.  The sanctions and low oil prices are really straining the Iranian government and this is the only tool the Saudis have to use.


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## CaptSpiff (Dec 13, 2014)

vinny11950 said:


> So oil is now below $60 a barrel and heading lower according to most analysts.  Without a Saudi cut in production, some even expect $45 a barrel.
> 
> They are really putting the screws to frackers and smaller oil producing countries that need higher prices.  I think they have two main reasons for this:
> 
> ...



To your point #1: I noticed the "Big Oil" companies have largely stood on the sidelines while the "wildcatters"  went into shale heavily leveraged. I'm thinking "Big Oil" will likely come out owning those assets for pennies on the dollar.

Keeping in the season, and the novel a Christmas Carol, I'm thinking of Marley & Scooge sitting at the end of the table and Fezziwig with his head hung low.

As to your second point: Well pondered. I had not seen good cause for the Saudis to so aggressively follow this line, but you may have revealed the secret. The Saudis really do hate the Iranians. War costs money and this may be cheap for the Saudis.


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## BrotherBart (Dec 13, 2014)

Exxon buying XTO for 31 billion wasn't exactly standing on the sidelines.


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## vinny11950 (Dec 14, 2014)

BrotherBart said:


> Exxon buying XTO for 31 billion wasn't exactly standing on the sidelines.



They are probably kicking themselves.....  Not!

Seriously, wasn't this deal more about natural gas?


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## BrotherBart (Dec 14, 2014)

It was done to get their leases, reserves and fracking expertise for gas as well as oil. As an Exxon shareholder, at the time and to this day I think it is the biggest mistake they have ever made.

Well, at least since they hired Hazelwood to drive the boat.


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## begreen (Dec 14, 2014)

Oil can go a lot lower and historically has had other precipitous price drops. Last one was $35 in April '09.


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## BrotherBart (Dec 14, 2014)

Interesting thing with this one is that for all practical purposes, OPEC is gone. After the last attempt to agree on price failed they are toast. The member countries are cutting each other's throats to pay their bills.


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## btuser (Dec 14, 2014)

Its an interesting time for sure.  If I was china I'd buy Venezuela for cheap.


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## bubbasdad (Dec 26, 2014)

CaptSpiff said:


> To your point #1: I noticed the "Big Oil" companies have largely stood on the sidelines while the "wildcatters"  went into shale heavily leveraged. I'm thinking "Big Oil" will likely come out owning those assets for pennies on the dollar.
> 
> Keeping in the season, and the novel a Christmas Carol, I'm thinking of Marley & Scooge sitting at the end of the table and Fezziwig with his head hung low.
> 
> As to your second point: Well pondered. I had not seen good cause for the Saudis to so aggressively follow this line, but you may have revealed the secret. The Saudis really do hate the Iranians. War costs money and this may be cheap for the Saudis.




Economic war might be the best kind.  The Saudis can stop at anytime, and might be able to do it forever.


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