# What happens after El Nino winter?



## warno (Feb 23, 2016)

This winter has been a joke for us the midwest states. I'm just curious what happens in the years following El Nino? Should next winter be more wintery?


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## EatenByLimestone (Feb 24, 2016)

El Papa comes back and freezes your arse off.


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## firefighterjake (Feb 24, 2016)

My memory is pretty bad, but I think I recall a winter similar to this one a few years back when it was very mild temp wise and snow wise . . . back in 2009 or so I think . . . I remember I had to trailer the sleds all winter long. The next year was similar . . . but not quite so "bad" as it was colder and we had more snow as I was able to do some local riding -- but not as much as normal.


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## begreen (Feb 24, 2016)

The off cycle is often call LaNina. Things have tended to be cyclical in the past, but that's no guarantee for the future as we continue to break global record temps.


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## warno (Feb 24, 2016)

So there's no definite next winter will have more snow and cold weather?


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## begreen (Feb 25, 2016)

Definite, no.


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## AmbDrvr253 (Feb 26, 2016)

Weather forecasting is the only profession where you can be wrong 100% of the time and maintain employment. "Its the weather stupid"


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## BrotherBart (Feb 27, 2016)

The weather forecasts are phenomenal these days compared to before. They told us a week ahead of time that we were going to have the three feet of snow blizzard we had this year. A few years ago they told us two weeks ahead of time and nobody listened and it happened right on schedule. 

Forecasting a year ahead is Old Farmer's Almanac brand of BS.


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## begreen (Feb 27, 2016)

The US finally is about to catch up with the European forecasting systems (that got Sandy right) with bringing online two new Cray supercomputers. Let's just hope that politics don't get in the way. 
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/02/the-national-weather-services-new.html


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## billb3 (Mar 6, 2016)

warno said:


> *What happens after El Nino winter?*



Spring.


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## warno (Mar 6, 2016)

Yep, can't argue with that fact.


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## johneh (Mar 6, 2016)

billb3 said:


> Spring


Or sometimes we just go straight to summer


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## kennyp2339 (Mar 7, 2016)

BrotherBart said:


> Forecasting a year ahead is Old Farmer's Almanac brand of BS.


Yup, but your cat was spot on this year.


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## begreen (Mar 7, 2016)

All long range forecasts expected the PNW to be drier with el Nino dumping the rains south in CA. Well, it's March now and we have set record rainfalls for every month since October. Wettest winter I have ever experienced. So much for long range forecasting.


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## Seasoned Oak (Mar 7, 2016)

Winter already long gone around here. 60s and 70s forcast. Cant believe winter is over already,one of the warmest winters i can remember. 
Usually burn 5-6 tons of solid fuel a year ,this year between 2-3 ton so far and it look like little to no heat needed going forward this spring.


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## sportbikerider78 (Mar 7, 2016)

50's and 60's here this week.  2 years ago, I had snow on the ground in the woods in May 

I love summer...bring it on


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## firefighterjake (Mar 7, 2016)

We had a coating of snow today . . . it was actually kind of pretty coming down . . . it will not stick around though as warmer temps are in the forecast.


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## Doug MacIVER (Mar 8, 2016)

begreen said:


> All long range forecasts expected the PNW to be drier with el Nino dumping the rains south in CA. Well, it's March now and we have set record rainfalls for every month since October. Wettest winter I have ever experienced. So much for long range forecasting.


nino typically brings in high moisture, this year different as it has moved into the northwest as well as the south.. nina will dry out again. think winter was warm, this summer will push records everywhere as la nina is forecast( there's that word again) to grow rapidly.my go to J Bastardi saying 16 hurricane season gonna be a bad one. everything you need to know. la nina-el nino http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/enso/ensofaq.html


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## Doug MacIVER (Mar 8, 2016)

begreen said:


> The US finally is about to catch up with the European forecasting systems (that got Sandy right) with bringing online two new Cray supercomputers. Let's just hope that politics don't get in the way.
> http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/02/the-national-weather-services-new.html


here is the skill grades for the two forecast systems, via r. maue twitter


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## Doug MacIVER (Mar 8, 2016)

last 135 years


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## Doug MacIVER (Mar 11, 2016)

short term forescast for another problem?
*Joe Bastardi* ‏@*BigJoeBastardi* 25m25 minutes ago Pennsylvania, USA


California above normal precip likely to continue into May.. Implications good, then bad, as it may mean big wildfire season, extra fuel


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## Doug MacIVER (Mar 15, 2016)

stolen from twitter 
	

		
			
		

		
	



*Ryan Maue* ‏@*RyanMaue* 1h1 hour ago

Ryan Maue Retweeted Los Angeles Times

fastest reservoir recharge in history

predicted because of el nino


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## begreen (Mar 15, 2016)

Seattle has broken rainfall records 5 months in a row now and likely will for March as well. Record warming is putting a lot of moisture into the atmosphere.
http://mashable.com/2016/03/14/record-warm-february-five-implications/#RyzjCiImHPqX


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## kennyp2339 (Mar 15, 2016)

Doug MacIVER said:


> short term forescast for another problem?
> *Joe Bastardi* ‏@*BigJoeBastardi* 25m25 minutes ago Pennsylvania, USA
> 
> 
> California above normal precip likely to continue into May.. Implications good, then bad, as it may mean big wildfire season, extra fuel


You are absolutely correct, I do believe in climate change and I believe that whole area is turning into more of an arid climate because of it. Wild land fires are not something to laugh at, they create there own micro climates and alter weather patterns, very powerful stuff.


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## sportbikerider78 (Mar 15, 2016)

....as has been happening since the beginning of time.....


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## kennyp2339 (Mar 15, 2016)

sportbikerider78 said:


> ....as has been happening since the beginning of time.....


I will clarify, climate change from the sun cycles, volcanic eruptions, maybe 2% man kind


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## begreen (Mar 15, 2016)

Just because these cycles have happened in the past does not mean that man is not responsible for this event. When in history has there been such a dramatic and fast uptick in CO2 levels that were not the direct result of a cataclysmic event?


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## billb3 (Mar 15, 2016)

Hey, it's great to see the majority of California reservoirs filling back up quick. 
Now for some headway on the extremely depleted ground aquifers.


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## Doug MacIVER (Mar 16, 2016)

Scripps forecast for approaching La Nina. as strong or stronger in the opposite as this El Nino.


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## begreen (Mar 16, 2016)

Hopefully that will help the salmon recover.


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