# Big changes are happening in transportation



## begreen (Nov 26, 2018)

A year or two ago we talked about major changes coming to the auto industry and the speed at which they would be switching over to electric vehicle production. This change is happening and it is happening quickly. The entire Volvo line will have an electric option by next year. General Motors and Ford are dramatically slashing passenger car production to focus on electric and self-driving cars while they let profitable trucks and SUVs pay the bills. Germany's largest mfg. VW is going all electric asap in 2020. And trucks are about to become electric as well ('bout time!). Tesla sales are blowing away all luxury car sales. The others aren't even close. Tesla has raised the bar for what luxury car owners expect in their future purchases and other car mfgs. are taking note. China has already aggressively entered the electric car market with over a dozen mfgs. half of which are innovative new competitors. In August, Chinese EV sales hit 100,000 units, a new record. The next few years are going to be interesting to say the least. 

Petroleum industry pov
http://www.petroleum-economist.com/...lead-to-an-electric-vehicles-inflection-point

new BMW to compete with Tesla's offerings:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmar...lectric-vehicle-market-a-charge/#ee01d1917452

New truck coming to market
https://www.inc.com/kevin-j-ryan/ri...any-emerges-from-stealth-mode.html?cid=hmsub1

VW's cars in development
https://www.vw.com/electric-concepts


----------



## Easy Livin’ 3000 (Nov 26, 2018)

begreen said:


> A year or two ago we talked about major changes coming to the auto industry and the speed at which they would be switching over to electric vehicle production. This change is happening and it is happening quickly. The entire Volvo line will have an electric option by next year. General Motors and Ford are dramatically slashing passenger car production to focus on electric and self-driving cars while they let profitable trucks and SUVs pay the bills. Germany's largest mfg. VW is going all electric asap in 2020. And trucks are about to become electric as well ('bout time!). Tesla sales are blowing away all luxury car sales. The others aren't even close. Tesla has raised the bar for what luxury car owners expect in their future purchases and other car mfgs. are taking note. China has already aggressively entered the electric car market with over a dozen mfgs. half of which are innovative new competitors. In August, Chinese EV sales hit 100,000 units, a new record. The next few years are going to be interesting to say the least.
> 
> Petroleum industry pov
> http://www.petroleum-economist.com/...lead-to-an-electric-vehicles-inflection-point
> ...


Good to read, thanks for compiling all the information.

Hopefully a side effect of all this will be continuing innovation in batteries and the associated price drop. 

Reminds me of the rapidity of LED lighting techology a few years back.  Went from way too expensive and wonky, to cheap and mainstream in a few years, after decades of hopeful talk.


----------



## peakbagger (Nov 26, 2018)

I had mixed feeling on the Ford and GM announcements. In the short term they are building where the market is which are gas hog trucks and SUVs. Sure they sugar coat with the promise of EVs but the consumers arent really buying them anywhere near the demand for trucks. Obama had bumped up the CAFE standards for trucks but I believe the current administration retracted them.  Under the prior system, the manufacturers had to subsidize econoboxes like I drive to compensate for the gas hogs sold. I guess without the CAFE driver the choice is just dont build the economy cars.


----------



## vinny11950 (Nov 27, 2018)

I have been surprised by the resilience of the renewable market and EVs.  And I have also been surprised by the price collapse in oil prices, which is driven by over supply, a slowing world economy, but also by the diversification of our energy portfolio (and this is happening with sanctions on Iran and with Venezuela oil production crippled by their own government's stupidity).  

I was reading an article on Toyota working on their own battery technology - if anyone can build a better battery, it would be them.


----------



## peakbagger (Nov 27, 2018)

Dick Hill a UMaine professor once predicted that we would never run out of oil we just wouldn't be using it due to the carbon impact.


----------



## begreen (Nov 27, 2018)

Wise man.


----------



## spirilis (Nov 27, 2018)

Yeah he'd be right about that.  Good thing too, as oil's useful for more than just burning...


----------



## Rearscreen (Nov 27, 2018)

When I was a young lad I was hired as a film loader for a promotional film shot down in Tenn. - Rosco Tanner and some PGA golf star were involved. The subject? Some brainiac figured out how to liquefy coal and put it into an 18 wheeler. The money shot was when the truck started. It didn't, or couldn't at first. A little finagling and off it roared spewing thick black smoke out the stack. Everyone clapped.


----------



## Easy Livin’ 3000 (Nov 27, 2018)

peakbagger said:


> Dick Hill a UMaine professor once predicted that we would never run out of oil we just wouldn't be using it due to the carbon impact.


The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones.

But there were no stone selling billionaires employing countless people selling stones.


----------



## SpaceBus (Nov 27, 2018)

ED 3000 said:


> The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones.
> 
> But there were no stone selling billionaires employing countless people selling stones.



No, but I imagine there were many coach builders, of actual coaches, not cars, but they were affected too, went out of business when cars boomed. The rapid decline in demand for horses and other livestock due to tractors and automobiles certainly put a hurting on the industry leaders of the time. True, still not the same as the petroleum industry, but one day it will no longer be profitable.


----------



## Easy Livin’ 3000 (Nov 27, 2018)

SpaceBus said:


> No, but I imagine there were many coach builders, of actual coaches, not cars, but they were affected too, went out of business when cars boomed. The rapid decline in demand for horses and other livestock due to tractors and automobiles certainly put a hurting on the industry leaders of the time. True, still not the same as the petroleum industry, but one day it will no longer be profitable.


Can't come soon enough for me, but I'm pretty sure our government then wasn't owned and controlled by the coach industry.


----------



## vinny11950 (Nov 28, 2018)

That Rivian truck looks nice...

Makes me believe that with auto plants closing in North America, car builders are going to have to move into the higher cost tier products to keep production in North America.  It still will not make up the lost jobs but hopefully a new industry grows.


----------



## begreen (Nov 28, 2018)

GM had to change, they are late to the game in many ways. Ford made this decision months ago and  barely caused a ripple. It's interesting to note: "According to AAA earlier this year, one in five drivers wants an electric car as their next vehicle." This article presents a thoughtful perspective on GM's move.
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/27/gm-may-finally-be-serious-about-electric-vehicles/

"If projections are correct, there should be 400 electrified models on the road by 2025. That’s 300-plus more EVs and hybrids than are running about today."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckt...ric-car-market-dont-count-on-it/#6a1860d917f9

The real issue at present appears to be an administration that wants to go backward and celebrate all things fossil fueled instead of forward on a low carbon diet.


----------



## Sparky31 (Nov 30, 2018)

Where do people think the electricity comes from for EVs?  Answer: hydro, coal, some nuke.  Many of the advocates of EV are also advocates of ending hydro, coal, and nuke.

What will they do when the battery units in their EVs are shot, requiring thousands of dollars to replace, and generate hundreds of pounds of chemical waste?

Engineers they ain't.


----------



## begreen (Nov 30, 2018)

Ya forgot solar and wind which together with hydro is at about 18% and growing. Last I checked no one was advocating tearing down Grand Coulee.
http://fortune.com/2018/02/18/renewable-energy-us-power-mix/

Car batteries are rated conservatively and last a very long time. When retired they still have a lot of capacity even if you reach the 150-200K miles with them. Then they are recycled, not wasted. There are a lot of aftermarket uses because they still have a lot of capacity left. But about 3/4 of them are harvested for raw materials.  That's a lot better than what happens to the average consumer electronic battery.
https://www.afr.com/business/energy...atteries-you-may-be-surprised-20180627-h11ynt

Are you an engineer?


----------



## Sparky31 (Nov 30, 2018)

begreen said:


> Ya forgot solar and wind which is at about 13% and growing. Last I checked no one was advocating tearing down Grand Coulee.



Actually, one of the world's biggest environmental lobbyists is pushing very hard to stop hydro:

https://www.patagonia.com/blog/2018/04/telling-the-dam-truth/

Most of the same groups are dead set against nuclear too.

I didn't mention solar and wind since they are such small slices of the pie that makes modern civilization possible.  I was in a training class with an engineer from GE who specializes in their giant wind turbines.  He said when you include the energy it takes to manufacture the components and craft the turbines, plus the maintenance, they almost aren't worth using.  I have a close friend who lived in Africa for over 20 years near one of the most reliably windy places on earth (literally).  He says that over the years, company after company came to the area and scoped that spot for wind power generation.  They all decided it wasn't worth it.

I've done the math on solar for our homestead.  If you have reasonably priced grid power available, solar's not worth it.  The inefficiency of the panels, their ongoing degradation, and the challenges of battery storage are significant.  And that's when you have an owner like myself (and many on this forum) who understand the tech and are willing/able to deal with the maintenance.  It only begins to approach economic viability through government subsidy.

I read some comments here about payback times for solar.  Did they consider panel degradation and failure, the cost of a blown inverter, lead-acid battery replacement, time spent in maintenance, etc?

IMO, solar becomes worth it when the alternative is no electricity.  Or, the owner is simply willing to pay for the independence.  No argument there, I get it.  That same friend of mine in Africa ran exclusively on solar, because there was no other alternative.  His homestead here in the US is near mine and I've helped him set up some solar applications.  He has grid power too but likes the independence of solar.  But he's got no illusions about solar saving money over grid power.

I really wanted solar to be viable for us.  I love the potential for sustainability, environmental cleanliness and independence.  But I'm an engineer and I enjoy playing with systems.  I have a clue about the massive, grid powered industry required to produce and transport solar components.  Most people don't.

I just tire of alternative energy arguments that don't take into account upstream costs and higher order effects.  In the above link by Yvon Chouinard of Patagonia, he says solar and wind are economically viable alternatives to today's energy sources.  What a crock.

It often simply devolves into a virtue signalling game.


----------



## begreen (Dec 1, 2018)

Actually in the US wind is almost equal to hydro. 6.3% vs 7.4%. Don't know too much about Patagonia's campaign.


----------



## spirilis (Dec 1, 2018)

Reasons @Sparky31 mentioned are part of why my position on energy topics these days center around:

1. Nukes, nukes, goshdarnit NUKES.  Did I mention NUKES?  Preserve all existing nuclear plants at any cost, and please bring on Atomic Age 2.0 as responsibly as possible.  Fast breeder reactors and slow breeders (thorium) should be the focus as they were from the 60's onward.

2. Grid storage, wherever it makes sense.  Much of this seems pie in the sky still though.

3. Biomass at a local level for personal fuel security, but not for grid-scale.


----------



## jatoxico (Dec 1, 2018)

peakbagger said:


> I had mixed feeling on the Ford and GM announcements. In the short term they are building where the market is which are gas hog trucks and SUVs. Sure they sugar coat with the promise of EVs but the consumers arent really buying them anywhere near the demand for trucks. Obama had bumped up the CAFE standards for trucks but I believe the current administration retracted them.  Under the prior system, the manufacturers had to subsidize econoboxes like I drive to compensate for the gas hogs sold. I guess without the CAFE driver the choice is just dont build the economy cars.



Getting back to our program, I happened to notice yesterday how many new sedans were out on the road. Civics, Accords, Camrys, entry level lux like Lexus, BMW and Mercedes, Jag etc etc. Plenty of Prius' and the sighting of a Tesla is no longer the event it used to be (like the damn deer!).

So it seems to me that although the sedan market ain't what it used to be, it's domestic sedans that US buyers don't want due to lower, or at least hit and miss quality of domestic models..


----------



## peakbagger (Dec 1, 2018)

jatoxico said:


> Getting back to our program, I happened to notice yesterday how many new sedans were out on the road. Civics, Accords, Camrys, entry level lux like Lexus, BMW and Mercedes, Jag etc etc. Plenty of Prius' and the sighting of a Tesla is no longer the event it used to be (like the damn deer!).
> 
> So it seems to me that although the sedan market ain't what it used to be, it's domestic sedans that US buyers don't want due to lower, or at least hit and miss quality of domestic models..



I am unsure on the assertion with respect to all the imports, I will agree the Japanese cars are bought for reliability but know many owners of Euro aspiration vehicles and they all seem to have less than reliable experience with their cars. Yes the dealers make it easy to get them fixed but longer term the parts are god awful expensive and take a while to get plus once out of warranty the hourly service costs are sky high. Access to the proprietary diagnostics information is harder although even the Japanese make it difficult. My bother had a Subaru issue and the dealer charged him $400 just to plug it in.  IMHO the real reason for the decline of sedans sit the consumer preference for large vehicles when gas prices are cheap.


----------



## begreen (Dec 1, 2018)

jatoxico said:


> Getting back to our program, I happened to notice yesterday how many new sedans were out on the road. Civics, Accords, Camrys, entry level lux like Lexus, BMW and Mercedes, Jag etc etc. Plenty of Prius' and the sighting of a Tesla is no longer the event it used to be (like the damn deer!).
> 
> So it seems to me that although the sedan market ain't what it used to be, it's domestic sedans that US buyers don't want due to lower, or at least hit and miss quality of domestic models..


Locally I spot several Tesla a day. They are about as common as any BMW or Audi. The issue with hit or miss quality seems more of the past with domestic models. Ford and GM are making some good sedans now.


----------



## jatoxico (Dec 1, 2018)

begreen said:


> Ford and GM are making some good sedans now.



Maybe but perception is hard to change overnight. Maybe its just me but if I'm looking for a reliable sedan I would go for the tried and true. If I was looking for "driver's car" it wouldn't be a domestic either.

I agree with some of the euro cars not being all that reliable but then many of those are bought for the cache.


----------



## begreen (Dec 1, 2018)

Yes, old perceptions die hard. Our Volt is a lot of fun to drive, especially when compared to Toyotas we've owned or rented. The Cruze is much more fun to drive too. Ford's CMax and Fusions aren't bad either. Dodge PT Cruiser, meh.


----------



## jatoxico (Dec 1, 2018)

begreen said:


> Yes, old perceptions die hard. Our Volt is a lot of fun to drive, especially when compared to Toyotas we've owned or rented. The Cruze is much more fun to drive too. Ford's CMax and Fusions aren't bad either. Dodge PT Cruiser, meh.



I was at a light the other day with a young lady in a Tesla.Needed to get over to make my right. Either get front or get behind. I didn't even try.


----------



## vinny11950 (Dec 2, 2018)

jatoxico said:


> I was at a light the other day with a young lady in a Tesla.Needed to get over to make my right. Either get front or get behind. I didn't even try.



I was on the LIE, near exit 64.  I looked in the rear view mirror and the line of cars behind me was in the far off distance.  A few seconds later, I had a Tesla coming up fast.  It seemed like it came out of nowhere.  I proceeded to move over and let them pass me. 

This is a pretty tricky time for automakers (when isn't it?) as they have to decided when to change over to electric.  Too soon and your sales dive.  Too late and your vehicles are obsolete.  The infuriating thing about GM is that the management culture has always managed to stifle the EV division, to the point that they sought to kill it.  This probably has to do with the pressure the US automakers are under to show quarterly and yearly results and not waste money on EV R&D.

It seems to me there is an oversupply of cars and car manufacturers, and the next recession and trend shift is going to do away with a few automakers.  Which means more consolidation and fewer auto manufacturing jobs.  In this sense, I wish we would build new high speed trains across the country, offer more buses and bus routes, and charge congestion pricing for the most congested parts of the country.  

But if the past teaches us anything, it is that more money will be spent expanding our same old highways.

Here's a good article on the possible future of car transportation
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/5/18/15604744/self-driving-cars-cities


----------



## begreen (Dec 2, 2018)

vinny11950 said:


> But if the past teaches us anything, it is that more money will be spent expanding our same old highways.
> 
> Here's a good article on the possible future of car transportation
> https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/5/18/15604744/self-driving-cars-cities



I want a car that doesn't need wheels. But not in my lifetime unfortunately.


----------



## Tegbert (Dec 2, 2018)

There’s also another startup trying to get into the truck market and frankly I like this one better as it is geared towards the heavy duty segments. They are hoping for ranges up to 500 miles and 35,000 lb gcwr depending on configurations and are touting 15 min charge times. Too bad that will probably be limited to their charging stations. 

http://www.atlismotorvehicles.com/xt-truck/

I like the rivian too but it is more of a half ton and geared towards the half ton market and I need a 1 ton for our fifth wheel. And with range similar to what I get now in mpg. I get about 500 miles to a tank unloaded and 315-350 loaded with family and the 13,000 lb fifth wheel. If any manufacturers can get me that even in cold weather or close to it I will jump ship to an electric truck. Also if the price is comparable to the current prices. 

I’ve been eyeing an electric car for commuting but I can’t justify spending 30k plus on a new one for 65-70 mile commute and the leaf used probably would not be able to make it in the winter time and my employer does not have charging stations at my location. Although I haven’t done a lot a research yet on the matter. 




Lopi Rockport
Blaze King Ashford 25


----------



## begreen (Dec 2, 2018)

Interesting. All I could find so far are computer generated images and no production date. Have you found a road ready date for them?


----------



## SpaceBus (Dec 2, 2018)

begreen said:


> Yes, old perceptions die hard. Our Volt is a lot of fun to drive, especially when compared to Toyotas we've owned or rented. The Cruze is much more fun to drive too. Ford's CMax and Fusions aren't bad either. Dodge PT Cruiser, meh.



I actually do like the Cmax. If we had stayed in NC I might have gotten one, but I also would have kept my motorcycle as well to make up for the lack of power. The Volt is a really neat car too, and I do dig the old ones.


----------



## spirilis (Dec 2, 2018)

Love our CMax for long distance trips.  The air cooled battery (requires a bit of care in the summer) and slow 3.3kW charging are notable knocks against it IMO.

In the world of PHEVs, my opinion is that battery sizes matter a bit less than charging speed.  A faster charger can help make up for a smaller battery when you're doing errands around town with public charging available.


----------



## Easy Livin’ 3000 (Dec 2, 2018)

spirilis said:


> Love our CMax for long distance trips.  The air cooled battery (requires a bit of care in the summer) and slow 3.3kW charging are notable knocks against it IMO.
> 
> In the world of PHEVs, my opinion is that battery sizes matter a bit less than charging speed.  A faster charger can help make up for a smaller battery when you're doing errands around town with public charging available.


As long as this sort of thing is being discussed, it'll never go mainstream.  Just get in and drive.  That's what people want, and have, for the most part, with old technology.

 I know I'm unwilling to give that up, and I'm the fringiest (?) person I know.  A few status seekers are buying Teslas, but electric just has to get as good or better than ice.

Saw $1.95 gas today in NW Ohio.  Looked down at my rental car miles to empty- 580


----------



## spirilis (Dec 2, 2018)

ED 3000 said:


> As long as this sort of thing is being discussed, it'll never go mainstream.  Just get in and drive.  That's what people want, and have, for the most part, with old technology.
> 
> I know I'm unwilling to give that up, and I'm the fringiest (?) person I know.  A few status seekers are buying Teslas, but electric just has to get as good or better than ice.
> 
> Saw $1.95 gas today in NW Ohio.  Looked down at my rental car miles to empty- 580


Well for the most part you can run the PHEV fat dumb and happy and it won't matter.  My opinion is more coming from a power user's perspective.

Btw on gasoline we routinely get 45+ mpg without trying and with the car holding 2 adults/2 kids... the hybrids definitely shine with fuel econ.  I've seen 600 mile range to empty on that one too.  Plug-in adds some perks like zero-emissions idling in traffic, ability to park & charge with the car on and HVAC going (what I call "mobile office" mode) with no concerns about exhaust fumes, and grid-powered preconditioning of the car when plugged in (Ford's GO Times feature).

The EVs are largely plug & go with the exception of the lower range and long charge times.  Outside of Nissan and maybe Kia(?), none of the EV makers seem to be stupid enough to use an air-cooled battery.


----------



## Tegbert (Dec 2, 2018)

begreen said:


> Interesting. All I could find so far are computer generated images and no production date. Have you found a road ready date for them?



I forgot to type I hope they make it. They are crowdfunding and doing final design right now. Supposedly will have a concept vehicle available to view in April 2019. With a late 2020 delivery for early adopters. 

That’s what is kinda confusing about this. Doesn’t seem they have a huge financial backing just yet but have a team in Mesa Arizona and supposedly people all around the world helping with it. But no factory as of now. 

I hope they do make it cause Tesla’s truck looks to be out of my price range from everyone’s guesses. But the specs look good. Rivian just wouldn’t cut it for me towing wise. But I see the appeal for it.


Lopi Rockport
Blaze King Ashford 25


----------



## begreen (Dec 2, 2018)

Their idea is similar to Rivian's slab chassis construction, though Rivian is further along. They are going to need a whole lot more than crowdfunding to support a national network of charging stations.


----------



## begreen (Dec 4, 2018)

Audi just joined the crowd with a €14 billion commitment. 
https://electrek.co/2018/12/04/audi-investment-electric-vehicles/


----------



## jatoxico (Dec 5, 2018)

That major manufacturers like VW are announcing they are producing their last generation of ICE vehicles still surprises me and I honestly am waiting to hear the caveats. There are still so many limitations.

Also saying they may use former Ford auto plants to produce cars stateside so they are not getting out of the sedan business. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...o-build-cars-deepening-alliance-idUSKBN1O32JG


----------



## PaulOinMA (Dec 5, 2018)

Didn't Ford just drop just about all its sedans for the U.S. market?

My wife has a 2012 Ford Escape Limited Hybrid that she won at work 7 years ago.  A hybrid never entered our minds before then.  She likes it a lot.  33 mpg over 75,000 miles.

I sort of miss my non-emissions-compliant VW JSW TDI.  41 mpg over 41,500 miles when I traded it in.  

Two neighbors are Dutch and worked for the same chemical company.  One drove a 500-h.p. BMW M6 convertible the 2 miles to their office.  The other drove a Chevy Volt.   Pretty funny difference


----------



## PaulOinMA (Dec 5, 2018)

vinny11950 said:


> … A few seconds later, I had a Tesla coming up fast.  It seemed like it came out of nowhere …



A friend was the manager of a Tesla dealership here in MA.  Met him in Providence, RI to go to a museum exhibit, and they drove us to lunch in the Model X.  Instant acceleration on the highway.


----------



## SpaceBus (Dec 5, 2018)

ED 3000 said:


> As long as this sort of thing is being discussed, it'll never go mainstream.  Just get in and drive.  That's what people want, and have, for the most part, with old technology.
> 
> I know I'm unwilling to give that up, and I'm the fringiest (?) person I know.  A few status seekers are buying Teslas, but electric just has to get as good or better than ice.
> 
> Saw $1.95 gas today in NW Ohio.  Looked down at my rental car miles to empty- 580




Again, people said the same thing about horses. You don't have to connect a pipe and be stationary to refuel your horse or get rid of waste.


----------



## PaulOinMA (Dec 5, 2018)

I do a 670-mile drive to the Outer Banks several times a year.  Current all-electric technology isn't convenient for that.  My old diesel was great for that trip.  Could do the trip without a refill, if I wanted to push it.  Never did, though, as I would get some diesel when I saw a pump.


----------



## vinny11950 (Dec 5, 2018)

I drive about 130 miles a week in an old 1996 Jeep Cherokee.  It is fun to drive and meets all my needs.  Eventually it will rust away and I will need another car.  But I have a 2007 Corolla with 175,000 miles on it, parked in the back yard.  That car can easily go another 100,000 miles.  So I figure it will be at least 5 years before I need to buy a new car (knock on wood).  Maybe then I can justify the cost of a new vehicle, hopefully electric.


----------



## Easy Livin’ 3000 (Dec 5, 2018)

SpaceBus said:


> Again, people said the same thing about horses. You don't have to connect a pipe and be stationary to refuel your horse or get rid of waste.



I understand your "connect to a pipe" analogy, but I'm pretty sure the waste part misses the mark.

Problem remains, currently, to go electric, you must give up a very substantial amount of convenience and coin.

I'd love an electric car, and really hope it's the future.  In fact, I really hate buying and burning gas.  But, as with computers, to go mainstream, we need to be at the point where were not talking about these things.  

Only people like us like thinking and talking about this stuff.  Just get in and drive, at a price as cheap as current technology.  That needs to be the goal to get the Everyman to be interested.


----------



## SpaceBus (Dec 5, 2018)

I'm making the point that it is coming. Alll of the doubts about electric cars were the same as combustion engined vehicles. Gas stations didn't pop up when cars were invented. It just needs more time.


----------



## Easy Livin’ 3000 (Dec 5, 2018)

SpaceBus said:


> I'm making the point that it is coming. Alll of the doubts about electric cars were the same as combustion engined vehicles. Gas stations didn't pop up when cars were invented. It just needs more time.


Can't come soon enough for me.

 The same thing is in the way as has been for decades.

 Oil has made a small group of people fabulously rich and powerful.  So rich, that they can control the governments, engage in campaigns that convince the population that we are wrong (environmentalists), and buy out the technologies that would make their assets obsolete. 

You are seeing this in action, in real time, today. 

My question for you is, how do you think this time is going to be different than all the other times that big oil has beat back the coming onslaught of well meaning dreamers like you and me?

Enough ranting.

The Amish like to say:  Tractors make bills and pollution.  Horses make fertilizer and more horses.


----------



## spirilis (Dec 5, 2018)

ED 3000 said:


> Can't come soon enough for me.
> 
> The same thing is in the way as has been for decades.
> 
> ...


Folks will laugh but, we have a Climate Change Problem on our hands.  That's what's different this time around.

Folks can ignore it so far until.... their homes and communities are destroyed.  Not everyone, just a few here and there, and those folks will become increasingly vocal.  We're in the cauldron of climate change right here, right now.  That's what is different.


----------



## Easy Livin’ 3000 (Dec 5, 2018)

spirilis said:


> Folks will laugh but, we have a Climate Change Problem on our hands.  That's what's different this time around.
> 
> Folks can ignore it so far until.... their homes and communities are destroyed.  Not everyone, just a few here and there, and those folks will become increasingly vocal.  We're in the cauldron of climate change right here, right now.  That's what is different.


I know.  But the people in charge are not in our camp.  How do we change this?


----------



## begreen (Dec 5, 2018)

ED 3000 said:


> I know.  But the people in charge are not in our camp.  How do we change this?


With more kids like this
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2...s-care-15-year-old-greta-thunberg-tells-cop24


----------



## PaulOinMA (Dec 5, 2018)

spirilis said:


> Folks will laugh but, we have a Climate Change Problem on our hands.  That's what's different this time around ...



Sinking Cities on PBS was very well done.  Have watched three so far: London, New York, and Miami.

https://www.pbs.org/wnet/peril-and-...MIlbmv_KaJ3wIVBFYMCh04owBuEAAYASAAEgKMgvD_BwE


----------



## Dantheman300z (Dec 5, 2018)

ED 3000 said:


> The Amish like to say:  Tractors make bills and pollution.  Horses make fertilizer and more horses.



Your Amish may say that. Ours feel the opposite. Multiple skid steers and gas powered farm implements are the norm.


----------



## SpaceBus (Dec 5, 2018)

Another difference is the internet and a generation of kids inheriting this mess that are now old enough to do something about it.


----------



## Easy Livin’ 3000 (Dec 6, 2018)

SpaceBus said:


> Another difference is the internet and a generation of kids inheriting this mess that are now old enough to do something about it.


Yes, I think that should be the answer. 

Right now, based upon this demographics' turnout at recent elections, they aren't yet doing what they need to do.

Also, notice what cars are being purchased.  GM is exiting the sedan market where the most fuel efficient non-electric cars are being sold, in favor of SUVs, and discontinuing the Volt.  Hyundai is about to start selling a big SUV and a pick up.

I share your philosophy and hope, but not your optimism.


----------



## sportbikerider78 (Dec 6, 2018)

SpaceBus said:


> I'm making the point that it is coming. Alll of the doubts about electric cars were the same as combustion engined vehicles. Gas stations didn't pop up when cars were invented. It just needs more time.



That's not really accurate to say.  Electric has struggles, but completely different struggles than gas did.
So people are going to sit around waiting for their cars to charge on big trips?  That certainly isn't how I do trips now.

All I want is for the EPA to get its head out of it's proverbial a** so we can get some really nice diesels over here in the US like they have in Europe.  My parents rented a diesel Nissan SUV that got great mpg while they were in Switzerland.  I'd love my Pathfinder to be a small 6 or turbo 4 diesel, just like they have over in Australia.  I'd switch tomorrow.  Lets get some tech here that is already proven, already exists, and the rest of the developed world is using.


----------



## SpaceBus (Dec 6, 2018)

Electric is facing pretty much all of the same difficulties as the original cars did. It's fast to pump gas today, but do you think it was originally? Where would you even get the gas? Stop thinking about it like the present day. Picture in your mind the turn of the 19th century. There were no filling stations, and only the wealthy early adopters had cars. Today, with a few exceptions, you need to be fairly wealthy to buy a brand new EV, and the infrastructure is still limited. Unlike early cars though, you can at least charge your EV at home. Most peopled did not, and currently do not, have a refinery in their home. 

These changes away from petroleum products will come, it will take time. The change to petroleum in the first place was also pretty slow. It took decades to get most people on board, but they still didn't convince everyone.


----------



## Dantheman300z (Dec 6, 2018)

Along with what sportbike said.

I want someone to produce a truck like how modern locomotives are made. Not with a 16 cylinder diesel but maybe a 3 cylinder turbo diesel that is paired with the generator. Then have single electric drive motors at each wheel.

Locomotives have dynamic brakes, during that breaking at max it produces enough juice to power a small city. So a battery cell that regenerates from the braking would be neato.


----------



## Easy Livin’ 3000 (Dec 6, 2018)

Dantheman300z said:


> Along with what sportbike said.
> 
> I want someone to produce a truck like how modern locomotives are made. Not with a 16 cylinder diesel but maybe a 3 cylinder turbo diesel that is paired with the generator. Then have single electric drive motors at each wheel.
> 
> Locomotives have dynamic brakes, during that breaking at max it produces enough juice to power a small city. So a battery cell that regenerates from the braking would be neato.


I think some hybrids work this way?  Probably no pick up trucks, but maybe an SUV or two?  Am I thinking of the Bolt?

I've been told that this setup can be made to be very efficient and clean, as the gas engine has a steady load on it.


----------



## spirilis (Dec 6, 2018)

ED 3000 said:


> I think some hybrids work this way?  Probably no pick up trucks, but maybe an SUV or two?  Am I thinking of the Bolt?
> 
> I've been told that this setup can be made to be very efficient and clean, as the gas engine has a steady load on it.


Yeah hybrids and plug-in hybrids do this.  It works great.  Apply it to trucks and you have a neat platform.  Never quite understood why nobody did this.

Bolt is a pure EV fyi


----------



## Easy Livin’ 3000 (Dec 6, 2018)

spirilis said:


> Yeah hybrids and plug-in hybrids do this.  It works great.  Apply it to trucks and you have a neat platform.  Never quite understood why nobody did this.
> 
> Bolt is a pure EV fyi


Volt?

Do all hybrids work this way?

Sounds interesting.


----------



## jatoxico (Dec 6, 2018)

Check out how current Formula I race cars work these days.



There may be better videos but essentially "waste" energy in the form of exhaust heat and brake regen etc is stored in a battery with a mechanical coupling directly to the crank shaft. Low end torque trouble? gone. Turbo lag? "Poof!"


----------



## PaulOinMA (Dec 6, 2018)

ED 3000 said:


> I think some hybrids work this way?  Probably no pick up trucks, but maybe an SUV or two?




My wife's 2012 Escape Hybrid has regenerative braking.  It's also an Atkinson engine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atkinson_cycle


----------



## spirilis (Dec 6, 2018)

Yw


ED 3000 said:


> Volt?
> 
> Do all hybrids work this way?
> 
> Sounds interesting.


Pretty much.  The BMW i3 w/ Rex is slightly different in that it's an EV with a 25kW motorcycle engine generator for range extending (still considered a plug-in-hybrid but a "series" PHEV vs others that are "parallel" hybrids) but most hybrids work that way.

Look up Weber Auto on youtube, the professor John Kelly shows all kinds of good stuff on how the trannies work for those.  My wife's C-Max Energi is just like the Fusion Energi trans. he talks about.


----------



## SpaceBus (Dec 7, 2018)

jatoxico said:


> Check out how current Formula I race cars work these days.
> 
> 
> 
> There may be better videos but essentially "waste" energy in the form of exhaust heat and brake regen etc is stored in a battery with a mechanical coupling directly to the crank shaft. Low end torque trouble? gone. Turbo lag? "Poof!"





Wow, that's really cool that you get to work for a team! I imagine you are never home, but still cool. Many people hate the new engine formula, but the advancements in turbos, KERS, and batteries has been amazing. Yeah, the V8 sounds better, but sometimes change is good. I'm not huge into F1, but I do like the tech. To me F1 is as boring to watch as NASCAR. I like to watch amateur racing, spec Miata, crap box racing, rally, and especially amateur stuff like the Gambler 500.


----------



## SpaceBus (Dec 7, 2018)

ED 3000 said:


> Volt?
> 
> Do all hybrids work this way?
> 
> Sounds interesting.


Pretty much all hybrids have regenerative braking. Some really expensive exotic hybrid super cars have a Kinetic Energy Retrieval System, also called KERS, that is basically used for passing or situations in which you need extra power. Formula 1 cars do this also and pioneered the technology. Pretty much every single advanced automotive technology has come from racing.


----------



## SpaceBus (Dec 7, 2018)

spirilis said:


> Yw
> 
> Pretty much.  The BMW i3 w/ Rex is slightly different in that it's an EV with a 25kW motorcycle engine generator for range extending (still considered a plug-in-hybrid but a "series" PHEV vs others that are "parallel" hybrids) but most hybrids work that way.
> 
> Look up Weber Auto on youtube, the professor John Kelly shows all kinds of good stuff on how the trannies work for those.  My wife's C-Max Energi is just like the Fusion Energi trans. he talks about.




Is it really a motorcycle engine? I always thought it was based on the new modular engine architecture. As far as I know, it's just an automotive three cylinder. I'll have to look it up again. I would never pay money for an i3, but it's a neat car. It's also made with a lot of Carbon Fiber which is neat.


----------



## spirilis (Dec 7, 2018)

SpaceBus said:


> Is it really a motorcycle engine? I always thought it was based on the new modular engine architecture. As far as I know, it's just an automotive three cylinder. I'll have to look it up again. I would never pay money for an i3, but it's a neat car. It's also made with a lot of Carbon Fiber which is neat.


You are probably right about that, I read motorcycle engine on a forum one time but they were probably speculating too.


----------



## begreen (Dec 8, 2018)

ED 3000 said:


> I think some hybrids work this way?  Probably no pick up trucks, but maybe an SUV or two?  Am I thinking of the Bolt?
> 
> I've been told that this setup can be made to be very efficient and clean, as the gas engine has a steady load on it.


Some plugin hybrids work like this, with a genset as a range extender to compliment the battery power, but not all. Examples are the Chevy Volt, Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid, Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, BMW i3 REx, These cars are electric vehicles. The ICE just powers the genset. Other hybrids like the Prius, Ford Fusion & CMax Energi the ICE powers the car supplemented by an electric motor. And then there are some that are sort of both like the Honda Clarity.

The i3 REx uses a modified BMW 650 motorcycle motor on the genset. It's range and fuel tank are small as it it only intended to get one to the next charging station and not for long drives. The Volt, Pacifica and Outlander PHEV's gensets and fuel capacity are designed for long range driving.


----------



## SpaceBus (Dec 8, 2018)

begreen said:


> Some plugin hybrids work like this, with a genset as a range extender to compliment the battery power, but not all. Examples are the Chevy Volt, Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid, Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, BMW i3 REx, These cars are electric vehicles. The ICE just powers the genset. Other hybrids like the Prius, Ford Fusion & CMax Energi the ICE powers the car supplemented by an electric motor. And then there are some that are sort of both like the Honda Clarity.
> 
> The i3 REx uses a modified BMW 650 motorcycle motor on the genset. It's range and fuel tank are small as it it only intended to get one to the next charging station and not for long drives. The Volt, Pacifica and Outlander PHEV's gensets and fuel capacity are designed for long range driving.




650 inline three didn't sound right, so I looked it up. Usually three cylinders of that displacement are found on Triumph Motorcycles and make over 100 HP. The 650 cc engine is an inline two cylinder. I always thought the i3 came with the new three cylinder from the i8 and the new FWD BMW sedans and hatches. You learn something new every day, The i3 engine is actually from a scooter!


----------



## Redbarn (Dec 8, 2018)

We are now on our 2nd BMW I3 & it really is a good car. 
The Rex is a 650cc BMW scooter engine that is mounted next to the electric motor on the rear LHS, under the truck floor. 
For an I3 that is in Euro spec, the Rex can be switched on/off after the main battery is down past 75% SOC. 
The Rex just charges the main battery & cannot provide direct motive power.
In US spec, to pass the CA CARB regs, the Rex comes on after the main battery is down to 6% SOC. 
Needless to say, owners buy a smartphone App that hacks the I3 Rex operation to Euro spec.
The real beauty of the Rex is that there is zero range anxiety. You always find a charger or a gas station.

We use the I3 as an electric vehicle for daily use.
However, we make a monthly 500 mile each way trip south and have used the I3 several times.
You start with a full charge & full tank (2.3 galls) of fuel.
After the main battery is down past 75%, you turn on the Rex & run another 95 miles till the tank runs dry.
Depending on what available, you refill the gas tank & continue or use a fast charger to recharge.
The journey takes about 45 mins longer in the I3 than our ICE vehicle, mainly because of charge time.

The BMW I3 is obviously a transitional technolgy but it works well.
I’m starting to see rows of Tesla chargers appearing at large gas station stops along the interstates.
Once the oil companies realise that you can hold people at your “Energy Station” for up to 20 mins 
while an EV fast charges & that these people will probably spend $ on refreshments while waiting,
I expect more & more EV charging stations to appear.


----------



## Easy Livin’ 3000 (Dec 8, 2018)

Redbarn said:


> We are now on our 2nd BMW I3 & it really is a good car.
> The Rex is a 650cc BMW scooter engine that is mounted next to the electric motor on the rear LHS, under the truck floor.
> For an I3 that is in Euro spec, the Rex can be switched on/off after the main battery is down past 75% SOC.
> The Rex just charges the main battery & cannot provide direct motive power.
> ...


That is an excellent point.  I believe the profit margin is way higher on soda, snacks, and tobacco products than on gas.  $$$!


----------



## SpaceBus (Dec 8, 2018)

Redbarn said:


> We are now on our 2nd BMW I3 & it really is a good car.
> The Rex is a 650cc BMW scooter engine that is mounted next to the electric motor on the rear LHS, under the truck floor.
> For an I3 that is in Euro spec, the Rex can be switched on/off after the main battery is down past 75% SOC.
> The Rex just charges the main battery & cannot provide direct motive power.
> ...



The beauty of the charging station is that it can go pretty much anywhere a car can go. I wonder when we will see parking lots purpose built for EVs. Even if an electric car had a 500 mile range, it could quick charge while the driver just takes a break even. People traveling with dogs often stop at rest stops and gas stations with grass. Imagine the future of a silent snack and refuel stop! Fast food chains even benefit from this. You don't even have to go to a gas station, you can just eat and charge. Hotels need to heavily invest in this technology. 

A charging station could benefit literally any business. Sure, the startup costs are high, but in the long term, it will pay off. There are no volatile fuels involved, no storage tanks, nothing. Just an electrical outlet. The community College I went to before we moved had a solar covered parking area just for EVs.


----------



## spirilis (Dec 8, 2018)

SpaceBus said:


> The beauty of the charging station is that it can go pretty much anywhere a car can go. I wonder when we will see parking lots purpose built for EVs. Even if an electric car had a 500 mile range, it could quick charge while the driver just takes a break even. People traveling with dogs often stop at rest stops and gas stations with grass. Imagine the future of a silent snack and refuel stop! Fast food chains even benefit from this. You don't even have to go to a gas station, you can just eat and charge. Hotels need to heavily invest in this technology.
> 
> A charging station could benefit literally any business. Sure, the startup costs are high, but in the long term, it will pay off. There are no volatile fuels involved, no storage tanks, nothing. Just an electrical outlet. The community College I went to before we moved had a solar covered parking area just for EVs.


Level 2 stations aren't too bad price-wise but IIRC L3 DC fast chargers are a different breed.  Capital costs upfront won't pay themselves for many many years until EVs are more popular and the charging fees can bring in more revenue.

Until then I see charger adoption in public following the present pattern, where govt subsidies are required to make them happen.  I don't think that's necessarily bad at all though given what's at stake and what EVs can do to quell our long term CO2 emissions.


----------



## Seasoned Oak (Dec 13, 2018)

peakbagger said:


> Sure they sugar coat with the promise of EVs but the consumers arent really buying them anywhere near the demand for trucks.  .


 All the more reason to
 electrify the trucks. The cheap gas prices are slowing that down.


----------



## Seasoned Oak (Dec 13, 2018)

begreen said:


> Yes, old perceptions die hard. Our Volt is a lot of fun to drive, especially when compared to Toyotas we've owned or rented. The Cruze is much more fun to drive too. Ford's CMax and Fusions aren't bad either. Dodge PT Cruiser, meh.


Good to see your coming back to american brands. Im glad they(american Brands) are producing vehicles people want to buy and provide good value. It saddens me to see a sea of foreign brands in parking lots, as if we cant design and build the worlds best cars here at home and not just assemble foreign brands from froreign parts here in the states. We used to be a world leader in this field.


----------



## PaulOinMA (Dec 13, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> ... if we cant design and build the worlds best cars here at home  …



I'm driving a Ford after 32 years of VW/Audi products.  Ford's C1 platform came out of Ford's Germany design studio and is the basis of a lot of their vehicles. 

My first car was a Ford: 1974 Pinto!  It was the blue that it seemed like 98% of the Pintos came in.


----------



## bholler (Dec 13, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Good to see your coming back to american brands. Im glad they(american Brands) are producing vehicles people want to buy and provide good value. It saddens me to see a sea of foreign brands in parking lots, as if we cant design and build the worlds best cars here at home and not just assemble foreign brands from froreign parts here in the states. We used to be a world leader in this field.


Yes but soon if you want a sedan you will have no choice but to duy a foreign car.  And what will happen to sales of American cars when fuel prices spike again?  To me it is an incredibly short sighted decision.


----------



## 3fordasho (Dec 13, 2018)

PaulOinMA said:


> I'm driving a Ford after 32 years of VW/Audi products.  Ford's C1 platform came out of Ford's Germany design studio and is the basis of a lot of their vehicles.
> 
> My first car was a Ford: 1974 Pinto!  It was the blue that it seemed like 98% of the Pintos came in.




Drove nothing but Fords for years.  I have no issue with them mechanically but got sick of the body rusting away.  Helped my daughter buy her 2001 ford focus, my winter car is a 2002 Audi A4.  The Focus has long rusted away, the Audi still solid as a rock at 213K miles and driven every winter.  I know the Focus is a low end Ford but the more expensive Fords rust just a quick.


----------



## PaulOinMA (Dec 13, 2018)

3fordasho said:


> … my winter car is a 2002 Audi A4 …



I had a 2003 Audi A4 Avant 3.0 Quattro with a stick.  Really liked that car.  Green with a tan interior.  I've been told that it was a unicorn.  It was the regional Audi reps car, and I bought it as a CPO at 9,400 miles.  A friend that's an Audi tech here used to service it.  He recently told me that he still tells people about the car and that he's never seen another like it.

Pretty funny story … a bunch of us that know each other through a VW web site were in RI for the Q7 debut and to watch Truth in 24 at a theater private screening.  One friend had the newer 3.2 six in his Audi.  His wife was going on and on that they had it in for service, she was given a 3.0 as a loaner, how much she hated the engine, how slow it was, and she couldn't believe anyone would ever drive the 3.0.

They parked right behind us in the theater.  I looked at my wife, "wonder if they noticed the 3.0 badge on the back."  My wife replied, "I was wondering the same thing."


----------



## Seasoned Oak (Dec 13, 2018)

bholler said:


> Yes but soon if you want a sedan you will have no choice but to duy a foreign car.  And what will happen to sales of American cars when fuel prices spike again?  To me it is an incredibly short sighted decision.


Its been decades since i bought a sedan, like many others i have no use for one since i dont commute and im always hauling either people or cargo. I would be interested in a truck or SUV that was partly electrified and i think the big 3 may go in that direction since yesterdays sedan drivers are todays SUV and truck drivers. Cost of fuel is a very small part of vehicle ownership for me. They are keeping the Bolt and expanding that platform so that should satisfy the small car buyer that wants low fuel cost per mile.


----------



## bholler (Dec 13, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Its been decades since i bought a sedan, like many others i have no use for one since i dont commute and im always hauling either people or cargo. I would be interested in a truck or SUV that was partly electrified and i think the big 3 may go in that direction since yesterdays sedan drivers are todays SUV and truck drivers. Cost of fuel is a very small part of vehicle ownership for me. They are keeping the Bolt and expanding that platform so that should satisfy the small car buyer that wants low fuel cost per mile.


I agree many people dont want sedans.  But the imports still sell plenty of them.  I dont need a sedan personally i rarley drive my own vehicle i am usually in one of my work trucks.  But my wife commutes an hour each way.  She needs fuel economy.  Right now she is driving an awd escape but we are looking for a car for her to reduce fuel cost.


----------



## Seasoned Oak (Dec 13, 2018)

bholler said:


> I agree many people dont want sedans.  But the imports still sell plenty of them.  I dont need a sedan personally i rarley drive my own vehicle i am usually in one of my work trucks.  But my wife commutes an hour each way.  She needs fuel economy.  Right now she is driving an awd escape but we are looking for a car for her to reduce fuel cost.


 The range of something like a bolt would be perfect, although she may not want something that small. I could see GM and Ford coming out with "escape sized electrics " in the near future. Id go for something like that, if it had anywhere near the Bolts range.


----------



## bholler (Dec 13, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> The range of something like a bolt would be perfect, although she may not want something that small. I could see GM and Ford coming out with "escape sized electrics " in the near future. Id go for something like that, if it had anywhere near the Bolts range.


Yeah not sure what we will get yet.  We will be keeping the escape for bad weather so it will probably be a cheap little beater for now atleast.


----------



## spirilis (Dec 13, 2018)

I am eager to see what electrification accomplishes for the "fuel" question with SUVs and trucks.  I know they will use more but I wonder how much more on average.

I am thinking the crossover BEV or PHEV will be the new sedan.


----------



## Seasoned Oak (Dec 14, 2018)

Id be thrilled with half the range of the bolt in a larger SUV or Pickup truck. Since large vehicles use the lions share of the fuel they offer the most fuel savings. Iv read that simple MPG advances in pickup trucks ,save way more fuel than all the pruises on the road simply because of  the numbers of trucks on the road.


----------

