# Long but Interesting video



## peakbagger (Oct 2, 2017)

If you believe the reasoning you have probably bought your last car and there will be no new power plants


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## WoodyIsGoody (Oct 3, 2017)

peakbagger said:


> If you believe the reasoning you have probably bought your last car and there will be no new power plants




That's a good one! I sent a link to a number of family members/friends/associates and they were all glad I did.


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## vinny11950 (Oct 3, 2017)

He's great.  I have seen other speeches from him before.  Good video.


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## begreen (Oct 3, 2017)

Great video. It will be interesting to see how quickly this disruption manifests. In the computer industry several giants fell quickly as technological disrupters changed the market. Also posted in the "It's started" thread.


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## WoodyIsGoody (Oct 4, 2017)

begreen said:


> Great video. It will be interesting to see how quickly this disruption manifests. In the computer industry several giants fell quickly as technological disrupters changed the market.



I'm trying to wrap my head around the timing as well. One thing he doesn't account for is the lobbying power of entrenched fossil fuel interests. They have already put up a very strong disinformation campaign against solar and wind. When the automobile replaced the horse carriage, the entrenched interests were mostly smaller local mom and pop carriage makers who were craftsman. And then thousands of independent blacksmiths who made horseshoes. This disruption is up against giants like Exxon-Mobil.

The disruptions you bring up in the computer industry happened so fast they couldn't see it coming. The oil giants are well prepared and will fight back. Not so much to win, but to delay and slow. They have already succeeded in several states in getting special taxes applicable only to electric cars (since they pay no road fuel tax). More kicking and screaming to come! Some of their activity will likely be to discourage projects to improve the electrical grid to make it ready for millions of electric cars. Anything to throw a wrench into the transition.


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## vinny11950 (Oct 4, 2017)

The thing to remember about disruptive technologies is that the up-and-coming companies that are using them act like insurgents and have learned how to take on the old order.  And rarely do the established companies adapt to the new landscape because the old company culture doesn't know anything different.

I remember watching an interview with the Exxon CEO some 15 years ago and he was asked if he thought renewable energy was a threat to Exxon.  He answered that Exxon was an energy company and they would position themselves to broaden their energy portfolio to whatever the future would be.  Well, all this time later and Exxon hasn't changed much from being an oil company.  Big companies like Exxon don't change because they don't want to but because their culture doesn't allow them to.

Interestingly enough, GM is catching some of the Tesla magic dust as it recently announced 20 new EV models in the next 6 years and the GM stock price is near all time highs.  Have they been able to transition faster to EVs because the company had to be bailed out by the government 9 years ago and the top management was swiftly replaced with people not entrenched to the old, SUV culture?

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/02/gm-...e-plans-with-20-models-over-next-6-years.html


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## peakbagger (Oct 4, 2017)

His presentation, vision and enthusiasm is great it just doesn't match my reality.

I live in a rural area, Northern NH  with a highly seasonal solar resource that is opposite my demand. I need more power in the winter than in the summer. I generate excess power with PV but that's not much use unless new affordable technology comes up to store enough power in the summer to supply me in the winter. The regulators forced the utility to offer net metering as an incentive for early adopters to install solar but that's unsustainable for large amounts of PV as someone has to supply backup power. Batteries are great for short term voltage and frequency response but they don't replace peakers, they just complement them.

The majority of my driving is mostly long trips. I routinely drive 200 to 500 miles round trip daily to visit clients.I hike on weekends and routinely I will go over 200 miles round trip to go hiking.  I don't see charging infrastructure getting sufficiently robust to guarantee me a place to reliably recharge. EVs as a service is great concept for urban use but I don't see how it will support my needs. Real life experience by the state of VT with EVs is the winter range is substantially impacted by cold temps, this is combination of reduced battery performance and the need for auxiliary heat and defrost capacity, fine for urban folks but useless for someone who needs to drive some distance. Low rolling resistance economy tires are also infamous for abysmal traction in winter conditions. I have run into several Prius owners who got stuck so often they either sold the car or put on snow tires that make dent in the fuel economy.


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## Seasoned Oak (Oct 4, 2017)

Definitely the smartest guy in the room. Predict the future simply by observing the past. The govt should check this out before they dump a fortune into the keystone pipeline. It appears the Car Companies are listening to this guy as they are lining up like dominoes ,announcing in just the last few days Ford and GM 100  %  electric fleet in just a few years.   I think the guy is spot on but i dont see the same time frame for trucks ,which are a big part of the fleet in this country. I use a truck on a daily basis all day ,every day.  When the glut of oil forces gas down to 99c a gallon ,even an electric conversion will be a hard sell. I see his vision working mostly for commuters and city dwellers ,less so for rural and country folk.


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## Seasoned Oak (Oct 4, 2017)

Time to start thinking about your stock portfolio. Out with oil and pipeline and utility stock ,in with solar and tech stock.  Also this would be a big factor as we recover from 3 major hurricane disasters. What sense does it really make to rebuild the power grid in PR even if it can be made storm proof ,if it will be obsolete in a few years. And PR is awash in sunshine.


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## WoodyIsGoody (Oct 4, 2017)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Time to start thinking about your stock portfolio. Out with oil and pipeline and utility stock ,in with solar and tech stock.



As a lifelong investor, I'm always thinking about my stock portfolio. But, IMHO, it's not yet time to sell my (one) big oil stock that I bought last year. Past experience tells me big oil will probably have one last hurrah. And it's good diversification, good dividend.


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## WoodyIsGoody (Oct 4, 2017)

Seasoned Oak said:


> I think the guy is spot on but i dont see the same time frame for trucks ,which are a big part of the fleet in this country. I use a truck on a daily basis all day ,every day.



AWD electric trucks with incredible torque will be awesome! And they are not too far off in the bigger scheme of things. I think Tesla will be making some kind of announcement within a year.


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## Seasoned Oak (Oct 4, 2017)

Big oil did manage to keep that electric cat in the bag for an additional 20 yrs when chevron bought the patent for the NMHI  battery back in the 90 s i believe  ,kept it out of cars . It had the Rav4 SUV  doing 125 AER .


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## Seasoned Oak (Oct 4, 2017)

WoodyIsGoody said:


> AWD electric trucks with incredible torque will be awesome! And they are not too far off in the bigger scheme of things. I think Tesla will be making some kind of announcement within a year.


Gas guzzlers may be enjoying 99c a gallon if Crude goes to $25 as predicted by Mr Seba so thay may be around awhile.


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## vinny11950 (Oct 4, 2017)

I don't know the economics of gasoline production, but if demand is cut in half can they afford to sell gasoline at 99c?  The same with gas stations, what volume do they need to stay in business?  How about repair shops?

A complex industry has been created to build and maintain combustion engines, which are complicated devices compared to electric motors.  Can they stay in the business of combustion engines when demand shifts?


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## Seasoned Oak (Oct 4, 2017)

vinny11950 said:


> Can they stay in the business of combustion engines when demand shifts?


Many will go broke as per the video offshore ,shale and all expensive extraction will cease. Only where the oil is just about coming out of the ground on its own can they still profit at $25 Brl .I  Imagine  lot of blacksmiths lost their livelihood when the gas powered car took over .  The big shock comes in the number of cars produced more than the cost and simplicity.  Tony Seba is saying that 80% of the market will vanish as so many people wont own their own car anymore ,just Uber a driverless car when they need to go somewhere.


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## begreen (Oct 4, 2017)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Definitely the smartest guy in the room. Predict the future simply by observing the past. The govt should check this out before they dump a fortune into the keystone pipeline. It appears the Car Companies are listening to this guy as they are lining up like dominoes ,announcing in just the last few days Ford and GM 100  %  electric fleet in just a few years.   I think the guy is spot on but i dont see the same time frame for trucks ,which are a big part of the fleet in this country. I use a truck on a daily basis all day ,every day.  When the glut of oil forces gas down to 99c a gallon ,even an electric conversion will be a hard sell. I see his vision working mostly for commuters and city dwellers ,less so for rural and country folk.


The Chinese auto market is the driving force behind many of these decisions. They have set a stake in the ground and the car makers have take note. As the largest car market in the world, when China speaks, you listen. As far as the oil companies, I suspect that China is not too concerned about their futures.


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## WoodyIsGoody (Oct 4, 2017)

begreen said:


> The Chinese auto market is the driving force behind many of these decisions. They have set a stake in the ground and the car makers have take note. As the largest car market in the world, when China speaks, you listen. As far as the oil companies, I suspect that China is not too concerned about their futures.



I believe it's the other way around. The Chinese all electric mandate was made because nobody understands economics like the Chinese. They have a laser like focus on what will be the next big thing and they want China to be leading it. China sees the future and wants to be riding the crest of the wave, not paddling like crazy trying to catch it. They have positioned themselves in front of the approaching wave, already paddling, before the economic certainty of electric cars passes them by. In this sense they are not driving the wave, they are anticipating and preparing for it. 

But yes, other manufacturers took note. It woke them up as to what was happening. But the wave is and will be driven by economics, not the Chinese.


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## Seasoned Oak (Oct 4, 2017)

Exiting times to be alive ,if all this happens in the next few years. 
Its very important  we try to make most of these new products here,batteries,solar panels,electric vehicles ect  since so many jobs will be lost supplying the then outdated tech.  Wont do us any good to move into the future to try to survive by selling each other foreign made products.  The highest value added products are the most valuable to produce internally. Aircraft , autos , ect. Not the stuff you see at the dollar store.


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## lsucet (Oct 5, 2017)

WoodyIsGoody said:


> AWD electric trucks with incredible torque will be awesome! And they are not too far off in the bigger scheme of things. I think Tesla will be making some kind of announcement within a year.



 Check Cummins Electric Semi Trucks. They already made it reality. Tesla is way behind on this one


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## lsucet (Oct 5, 2017)

Also check Nikola ONE semi trucks. They already out and US Express has some testing it for what I understand.


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## Circus (Oct 5, 2017)

Interesting but I've heard it before. 60 years ago nuclear power promised to be too cheap to meter. Besides if true, some hedge fund will buy up all the companies and patents so they can charge $80,000 from their $8 investment like they're doing with pharma now.


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## WoodyIsGoody (Oct 5, 2017)

Circus said:


> Interesting but I've heard it before. 60 years ago nuclear power promised to be too cheap to meter. Besides if true, some hedge fund will buy up all the companies and patents so they can charge $80,000 from their $8 investment like they're doing with pharma now.



To be more accurate, it wasn't "nuclear power" who predicted it would be too cheap to meter, it was the nuclear power industry and they were trying to sway public opinion by appealing to peoples greed. Oldest trick in the book, tell people what they want to hear and they'll buy it.

I don't see the solar story as having the same element. It's simply a cost curve due to technological advancement and volume efficiencies. And solar is already at or below cost parity with fossil and wind sources in many areas.


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## georgepds (Oct 6, 2017)

vinny11950 said:


> The thing to remember about disruptive technologies is that the up-and-coming companies that are using them act like insurgents and have learned how to take on the old order.  And rarely do the established companies adapt to the new landscape because the old company culture doesn't know anything different....
> 
> l





Just for contrast..DONG (*Dansk Naturgas* and *Dansk Olie og Naturgas) founded to manage natural gas, is now a wind company

*


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## georgepds (Oct 6, 2017)

WoodyIsGoody said:


> I believe it's the other way around. The Chinese all electric made because nobody understands economics like the Chinese.



Well, that, and they've all gagging on smog in Beijing


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## woodgeek (Oct 7, 2017)

As noted this was posted earlier.

When I saw the OLD Seba video, I was skeptical of the transportation as a service TaaS model, and thought this new video did a better a job motivating it.

Having reflected a bit, I have come to a few conclusions...

--if TaaS is going to take off in a few years, it has to already exist in some form....and it does with Uber/Lyft/etc.  As those services have grown, there are some obvious problems.  Most notably congestion pricing.  They're great when you get a cheap ride when you need it at an off time, but its not really great for commuting...congestion pricing (and traffic) make it a slow and expensive ride.

--Tony notes that (future) EVs can drive a lot more miles than existing ICE cars before they need maintenance or to be scrapped.  But a car that goes 500k miles, and will be 'old-fashioned' (and thus undesirable) in a few years is oxymoron....how does a car get driven 500k miles in a few years? 100k miles/yr is 30 mph and running 30% of the time.  Sounds like an urban Uber.

--The congestion problem is two-fold.   If 'rush hour' is 10% of hours, and takes up more than 50% of TaaS miles, then the cars can't do more than a 20% duty cycle, limiting ROI.  Moreover, Uber drivers don't want to work for 2 hours a day, 5 days a week, and if they did, you would need to enlist 10% of the commuting population as drivers.  So you need autonomy to make the TaaS model work, and need to accept a low duty cycle in many markets.

--In this model, suburban/rural TaaS is more viable, since there are a of of unused cars that can be dispersed into the suburbs outside of rush hours.

People's thoughts?


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## Seasoned Oak (Oct 7, 2017)

Like i said ,it wont happen as fast as portrayed in the video. As soon as you get outside urban areas ,people will elect to own or  lease their own personal vehicle.


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## WoodyIsGoody (Oct 8, 2017)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Like i said ,it wont happen as fast as portrayed in the video. As soon as you get outside urban areas ,people will elect to own or  lease their own personal vehicle.



4 out of 5 Americans live in urban areas. That means what people do in small towns and rural areas has little to do with the overall speed of transition. Decades after the automobile replaced horse transportation you could still find rural people who used a horse and buggy to go to church and get to the hardware store. Even today there are a few that hang on to the outdated methods.

None of this implies the transition didn't happen incredibly quickly.


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## vinny11950 (Oct 8, 2017)

woodgeek said:


> As noted this was posted earlier.
> 
> When I saw the OLD Seba video, I was skeptical of the transportation as a service TaaS model, and thought this new video did a better a job motivating it.
> 
> ...



Haven't really thought this through, but would double duty vehicles fix the ROI issue?  I mean a driver buying or leasing the self driving car, using it for private use and then letting it drive away when he/she doesn't need it to do its Uber work?  Uber doesn't need to finance the vehicle so it doesn't need to come up with money up front, and the private owner helps to pay for the vehicle and maybe make some money on the side.  I have never worked for Uber, but it always struck me that it is a vampire company, taking every little that it can from its drivers.  People who work for Uber often have no choice so they can be squeezed.


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## Seasoned Oak (Oct 8, 2017)

WoodyIsGoody said:


> 4 out of 5 Americans live in urban areas.


 But many of those people already dont own a car for various reasons .


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## woodgeek (Oct 8, 2017)

vinny11950 said:


> Haven't really thought this through, but would double duty vehicles fix the ROI issue?  I mean a driver buying or leasing the self driving car, using it for private use and then letting it drive away when he/she doesn't need it to do its Uber work?  Uber doesn't need to finance the vehicle so it doesn't need to come up with money up front, and the private owner helps to pay for the vehicle and maybe make some money on the side.  I have never worked for Uber, but it always struck me that it is a vampire company, taking every little that it can from its drivers.  People who work for Uber often have no choice so they can be squeezed.



I think you're onto something.  I would NOT want my ICE car to rack up miles and wear itself out (unless you paid me well), but if I knew my EV was low maintenance and would last way more miles than I needed...sure, I might.

More to the point, I suppose that the Car Share model could work here re congestion.  You could buy a 'share' of an autonomous EV fleet that guarantees you rush-hour access, and the 'share' (plus per ride charge) would be cheaper than owning or leasing a car.  Those not owning shares (or 'premium' status) would still be able to access the vehicles, but at a lower pecking order that precludes rush-hour use.


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## vinny11950 (Oct 9, 2017)

woodgeek said:


> I think you're onto something.  I would want my ICE car to rack up miles and wear itself out (unless you paid me well), but if I knew my EV was low maintenance and would last way more miles than I needed...sure, I might.
> 
> More to the point, I suppose that the Car Share model could work here re congestion.  You could buy a 'share' of an autonomous EV fleet that guarantees you rush-hour access, and the 'share' (plus per ride charge) would be cheaper than owning or leasing a car.  Those not owning shares (or 'premium' status) would still be able to access the vehicles, but at a lower pecking order that precludes rush-hour use.



The car share model works.  I also think that the things our older generation gets hung up on (like owning your own car/truck) will be no problem for millennials and future generations; they will be perfectly fine sharing/renting what they need as long as it is through an app on their smartphones.  They will face different problems and challenges and will tackle them accordingly.  Human behavior is a big part of this.


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## Seasoned Oak (Oct 9, 2017)

ICE vehicle 2000 moving parts. Electric V. 18  .Perhaps thats what the car companies were afraid of when they killed electrics in the 90s.


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## vinny11950 (Oct 9, 2017)

Seasoned Oak said:


> ICE vehicle 2000 moving parts. Electric V. 18  .Perhaps thats what the car companies were afraid of when they killed electrics in the 90s.



When I changed the distributor on my Jeep I had to make sure I got the timing back on the right position = PITA.


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## Circus (Oct 9, 2017)

The example of switching over from horse to horseless is a poor one. Horses are a pain.   I haven't fed my unused truck for a year, no chit and no vet bills. A better example would be much less dramatic.  Maybe hi def TV, still nothing to watch but you can see it better.


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## lsucet (Oct 9, 2017)

And back in time, people with unused horses did have the choice of have no horse and avoid the chit and vet bills. That way no pain.


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## Seasoned Oak (Oct 9, 2017)

This is good news for crowded countries like china and india ,better to transition to electric cars and Mc from bicycles, than to oil burning vehicles. Going to need a lot of lithium!


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## peakbagger (Oct 9, 2017)

One of the arguments for an electric US fleet is the US carmakers don't have choice, the third world is becoming the major market and they don't have a lot of choice but go electric, so the US carmakers are going to end up selling electric cars to sell into the major markets.

Realistically given the current rapid increases in battery density, I could see where one chassis is going to be capable of having either electric or IC engine. Currently the car has to be designed around the battery pack. Get the battery drivetrain small enough that they occupy the space of a IC engine and transmission and things get really interesting. I still hold out hope that it becomes practical to swap a standardized battery pack quickly so extended range travel is far more user friendly but I don't see it happening soon.


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## WoodyIsGoody (Oct 9, 2017)

peakbagger said:


> I still hold out hope that it becomes practical to swap a standardized battery pack quickly so extended range travel is far more user friendly but I don't see it happening soon.



With the rate at which time it takes to charge batteries is improving so rapidly, swapping battery packs is going to become more expensive than it's worth. Supercharger capable Teslas can already recharge 80% in only 1/2 hour. Qualcomm has developed the ability to turn sections of highway, roads, parking spaces, drive-ups, etc. into wireless charging stations. Imagine your car picking up 100 miles of range simply by driving through the McDonalds drive-through (and without having to get out of your car to refuel). They work at highway speeds too. Park at work and your car is wirelessly charged. Shop at Sam's Club, Costco, etc. and use their wireless chargers free. Eat at Olive Garden and return to a fully charged car. 

With ubiquitous wireless chargers, not only will there be no need for battery swapping, you could buy your battery electric vehicles with only 100 miles of range, making them much cheaper and more useful.


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## woodgeek (Oct 9, 2017)

Indeed WoodyIsGoody.  Most lithium batteries can handle a 1.6 or even 2C rate, charging 0-80% in 25-30 minutes.  Including my 2013 LEAF.  

As batteries get bigger this will be _less_ of an owner problem.  If my current (~22kWh) LEAF drains the battery in 60 minutes on the highway (at 70mph), 30 minutes to recharge is a problem on a long road trip.  If my next (40 kWh) LEAF is good for twice the range, and two hours on the road, and still recharges in 30 minutes, now its not such a big deal.  The 60 kWh 2019 LEAF...three hours of freeway time and 30 minutes stopped.

Of course, the power of the HVDC charger will have to go up to boot.  From 40+ kW today, to 80 or 120 kW in the future.


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## WoodyIsGoody (Oct 10, 2017)

woodgeek said:


> Indeed WoodyIsGoody.  Most lithium batteries can handle a 1.6 or even 2C rate, charging 0-80% in 25-30 minutes.  Including my 2013 LEAF.
> 
> As batteries get bigger this will be _less_ of an owner problem.  If my current (~22kWh) LEAF drains the battery in 60 minutes on the highway (at 70mph), 30 minutes to recharge is a problem on a long road trip.  If my next (40 kWh) LEAF is good for twice the range, and two hours on the road, and still recharges in 30 minutes, now its not such a big deal.  The 60 kWh 2019 LEAF...three hours of freeway time and 30 minutes stopped.
> 
> Of course, the power of the HVDC charger will have to go up to boot.  From 40+ kW today, to 80 or 120 kW in the future.



All true. But maybe you missed my point about the ability to charge at highway speed. The technology has already been demonstrated. New technologies are developing at warp speed these days.


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## woodgeek (Oct 10, 2017)

WoodyIsGoody said:


> All true. But maybe you missed my point about the ability to charge at highway speed. The technology has already been demonstrated. New technologies are developing at warp speed these days.



I am aware of the highway wireless charging technology, but my understanding is that the cost is too high to make it practical.  Its a lot of wiring and electronics per mile, and a lot of miles, when batteries and high speed charging can do the job just fine.  Wireless charging in some parking spaces....already exists, but not a lot of people are willing to pay for it, when you can plug in in less than 10 seconds.

It might well be a thing for busses, but then so might catenary wires, which have been around for more than a century.

My point is that as EV batteries get bigger (and they will), the max charging power automatically goes up, even without new engineering to increase the 'C' rate.


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## WoodyIsGoody (Oct 10, 2017)

woodgeek said:


> I am aware of the highway wireless charging technology, but my understanding is that the cost is too high to make it practical.  Its a lot of wiring and electronics per mile, and a lot of miles, when batteries and high speed charging can do the job just fine.  Wireless charging in some parking spaces....already exists, but not a lot of people are willing to pay for it, when you can plug in in less than 10 seconds.



Yes copper wires in the roadway are currently expensive and impractical. But so were BEV's 10 years ago. I imagine next year a breakthrough will be revealed, with cheap wires made of doped carbon and within a decade thousands of miles of it will be laid in roadways all over. Things happen faster than we think they are. Before you know it, amazing things are normal, accepted and commonplace. People will recall it as "quaint" having to plug your car in with a big bulky cable. 

Musk's recent tweet was that 350 kW chargers are merely "child's toys".


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## begreen (Oct 16, 2017)

Some major investments are being made right not in self-driving vehicles by the big boys. GM has the Maven program with Lyft, Ford has the Argo A1 with Uber and now Toyota has committed to spending $1 billion through 2020. 
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-to...ving-talking-cars-by-about-2020-idUKKBN1CL14U


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