# NOAAâ€™s Winter Outlook



## thewoodlands (Oct 20, 2011)

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/noaa-winter-outlook_2011-10-20?role=



zap


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## muncybob (Oct 20, 2011)

Looks about "average" for us, whatever that is.


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## thewoodlands (Oct 20, 2011)

muncybob said:
			
		

> Looks about "average" for us, whatever that is.



By this, it looks like I'll be cutting or milling well in to Feb. if they are correct.


zap


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## muncybob (Oct 20, 2011)

Other than the rain, we can't complain about the temps here. I just harvested the last of my green beans and ever bearing strawberries. Next is the yams if I can find the time to dig em up.


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## thewoodlands (Oct 20, 2011)

muncybob said:
			
		

> Other than the rain, we can't complain about the temps here. I just harvested the last of my green beans and ever bearing strawberries. Next is the yams if I can find the time to dig em up.



Speaking of rain, the sky just opened up and she is coming down hard, guess we made a good choice pushing in some wood last night.

We should be good through next week for wood depending on the weather.

zap


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## colebrookman (Oct 20, 2011)

I'm hooking up the snowblower at the first hint of snow.  Last year we had so much snow, for us, that I had to keep moving it to make plow room.  This year I'll start right off with the big gun and maybe that will scare the snow away. Be safe. Ed


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## billb3 (Oct 20, 2011)

Looks like its going to be  either a little colder or a little warmer  than usual or maybe just the same and a little bit wetter or a little bit dryer than usual or maybe the same , here.
WTF.


I wonder if they do odds on the World Series.


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## daveswoodhauler (Oct 20, 2011)

billb3 said:
			
		

> Looks like its going to be  either a little colder or a little warmer  than usual or maybe just the same and a little bit wetter or a little bit dryer than usual or maybe the same , here.
> WTF.
> 
> 
> I wonder if they do odds on the World Series.



LOL, I was thinking the same thing....thanks for the chuckle Bill


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## pen (Oct 20, 2011)

Lot of uncertainty with these.

Below was one long range forecast for the summer of 2011.  Note the average rainfall forecast for NorthEast Pa.  I think we stand at 20 some inches above normal and broke the record for the wettest _year _on record Sept 29. 

pen


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## colebrookman (Oct 20, 2011)

Bill you sound like our morning weatherman with his seven day forecast. If you ever need to change careers.....  Be safe.
Ed


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## begreen (Oct 20, 2011)

I weally think the winter weather will be wild and wacky wight here in Washington.


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## xman23 (Oct 20, 2011)

Is NOAA long range prediction's any better than the farmers almanac?


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## thewoodlands (Oct 20, 2011)

xman23 said:
			
		

> Is NOAA long range prediction's any better than the farmers almanac?





This is better.

zap


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## NH_Wood (Oct 20, 2011)

zapny said:
			
		

> xman23 said:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



By a long shot! Cheers!


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## smokinj (Oct 21, 2011)

They are accurate to about 60 day trends.


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## Kenster (Oct 21, 2011)

pen said:
			
		

> Lot of uncertainty with these.
> 
> Below was one long range forecast for the summer of 2011.  Note the average rainfall forecast for NorthEast Pa.  I think we stand at 20 some inches above normal and broke the record for the wettest _year _on record Sept 29.
> 
> pen



What kind of crack were these guys smoking when they made this prediction?  Above Average Precipitation for most of Texas?  Yet here we are in the middle of the worst drought in over 100 years.


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## smokinj (Oct 21, 2011)

Kenster said:
			
		

> pen said:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Here is what there saying.


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## Gasifier (Oct 21, 2011)

I like this line ZAP. 

NOAA has given the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic an equal chance of seeing below, above or near-average temperatures and precipitation this winter. 

Talk about making sure you are successfull at your job. Got pretty much everything covered there.

I just finished getting all the wood in under the covered porch today. In between the rain that is. It never fails. Have it out to dry all those months and it rains on it right before you put it under cover for the winter.


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## thewoodlands (Oct 21, 2011)

That is putting your neck on the line. The rain never stops in the northeast, we have some wood (quaking aspen) that has been inside over a week that is still a little damp in behind the bark. It seems out of five splits one will be damp behind the bark, but it is burning fine.


zap


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## mayhem (Oct 21, 2011)

So if I read that right, it looks like its probably going to get colder for the next few months and it'll snow here and there.  The places that are typically pretty dry look like they're saying won't get much precipitation, but the places that tend to be wetter will get precipitation.

I hear it will also get dark outside EVERY SINGLE NIGHT TILL DAYBREAK!


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## snowleopard (Oct 21, 2011)

I like: "equal chances of above, near, or below-average precipitation".   

Six months later: 
"See, I told ya!"


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## Backwoods Savage (Oct 21, 2011)

Our prediction is for temperatures to continue their downward trend until the end of January and the begin a slow trend of rising temperatures. During this period of time we will have shorter and shorter daylight hours until just before Christmas and then the daylight hours will slowly increase until late in June. The percipitation will slowly change from just wet raindrops to albino rain and on occasion we will have need to move some of that white stuff around in order to be able to drive our vehicles. I'll continue to push snow around for us and the neighbors. Some will donate a few dollars and others will give thanks while at least one will say nothing. 

It is bound to be a difficult winter because certain folks have very large wood piles. This means I'll have to be out there cutting more this winter in order that we don't run out too soon. It is also predicted that many people will be spending the longer dark hours staring at their stoves and enjoying the heat and the fire show. This will do nothing but help the family situation which has been deterorating for too long. It will also cause some fathers to allow (or force) their sons into helping with the putting up of wood. 

When spring comes, many will once more start putting up wood for the following year while the Backwoods Savage will set aside more time for things other than wood cutting because he has been out there freezing his fingers all winter and wants to forget that part for another few months.


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## Gasifier (Oct 21, 2011)

That is putting your neck on the line. The rain never stops in the northeast, we have some wood (quaking aspen) that has been inside over a week that is still a little damp in behind the bark. It seems out of five splits one will be damp behind the bark, but it is burning fine.

Oh, that is not the wood I will be burning for the next few months. That has been under the porch for a long time. The wood I am burning now and should last me another month has been drying for over a year and has been under my porch since late last fall. I have a couple face cord of that left. When that is gone I will move to the ash that was brought in last week. Then I will move to the ash that I just brought in. A little pine and elm mixed in the last lot. Most of this has had a cover of clear plastic over it since last spring, over the top of the stack. Some since June. It is all under the porch now, and will be keeping us warm. Now I have to get to work on next years Ash. I wish it was a little colder weather to work on that though. At least all the bugs are gone. One week from today I have a long weekend off. That is going to be some cutting days. Do you have your wood for next year cut yet?


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## thewoodlands (Oct 21, 2011)

Gasifier said:
			
		

> That is putting your neck on the line. The rain never stops in the northeast, we have some wood (quaking aspen) that has been inside over a week that is still a little damp in behind the bark. It seems out of five splits one will be damp behind the bark, but it is burning fine.
> 
> Oh, that is not the wood I will be burning for the next few months. That has been under the porch for a long time. The wood I am burning now and should last me another month has been drying for over a year and has been under my porch since late last fall. I have a couple face cord of that left. When that is gone I will move to the ash that was brought in last week. Then I will move to the ash that I just brought in. A little pine and elm mixed in the last lot. Most of this has had a cover of clear plastic over it since last spring, over the top of the stack. Some since June. It is all under the porch now, and will be keeping us warm. Now I have to get to work on next years Ash. I wish it was a little colder weather to work on that though. At least all the bugs are gone. One week from today I have a long weekend off. That is going to be some cutting days. Do you have your wood for next year cut yet?




4 to 5 years ahead at this moment depending on how the winter goes, looking at another three cord before the end of December, if not more.



zap


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## Delta-T (Oct 21, 2011)

its gonna be fairly nice in Aruba....kinda dry, little breezy, about 82F.....for about the next 365 days.


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## firefighterjake (Oct 24, 2011)

I always figure winter is what winter is . . . you can read all the predictions, study the wooly bears and hornet nests . . . but the only way to know what the winter will be like is when it's over and you can look back and say, "That wasn't so bad" or "Holy cow . . . I've had enough snow and cold to last me a lifetime -- or at least until July when I'll complain about the heat and humidity."


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## jimbom (Oct 24, 2011)

Delta-T said:
			
		

> its gonna be fairly nice in Aruba....kinda dry, little breezy, about 82F.....for about the next 365 days.



Gets old, not.  I spent four years in Pearl City, Hawaii.  House had no AC, no heat and single wall construction (ie exterior wall is the interior wall).  Didn't need any.  It was fabulous.  

Only thing was when I got there I couldn't speak the pidgin.  People would stick their head in a meeting and say something and someone would answer, but I had absolutely no clue what had transpired.  Everybody else knew exactly what was going down but me.  Most of the rem statements in the software was in pidgin.  I thought that was hilarious.  Took me a year or so, but I got up on the step.  

Nobody runs language classes to teach pidgin.  Have to learn from the neighbors, in dangerous bars, and in the trenches.  Son born in Kapi,olani Hospital.  I wrote down the nice things the nurses said and took the list in to work.  The secretaries told me the meaning.  There is a rich language of tender love in the islands.  They cherish all children.  I still listen to slack string guitar.  It is the bluegrass of the islands.


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