# Solar + storage for 4.5 cents/kWh.



## begreen (Jun 3, 2017)

Very competitive contract. Didn't think this would happen this soon. 
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/06/03/this-is-the-biggest-news-in-electricity-since-the.aspx


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## woodgeek (Jun 4, 2017)

Nice story.   Expect more.

I was running the numbers for someone recently that AZ solar power was stupid cheap...they had printed something that it was a bad investment relative to natural gas.

Other analysts have recently suggested that utility-scale solar PV (without storage) is at or below parity with conventional power in 80% of US markets.


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## maple1 (Jun 4, 2017)

How are they storing?


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## Where2 (Jun 4, 2017)

Story states: "Utilities are now in serious trouble", except that NextEra Energy owns my electric utility, and they won't be sacrificing their child any time soon. There's a reason my utility and other utilities in FL ponied up millions of dollars to try to push a Florida constitutional amendment last fall that would have skewed solar arrangements in their favor. My electric utility is building out solar farms fast and furious, and would love to limit rooftop solar that they don't control.


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## CaptSpiff (Jun 5, 2017)

Bit of a tangent here, but this is another example of why I do not fear climate change. I truly believe that we'll solve those forecast global "problems" with Technology Leaps, like the nugget described here.

The way I see it Economic utility sized storage capability will allow wind farms to ride thru overnight wind curtailments, make more money thru increase Capacity payments, and participate in the very lucrative reserve energy capacity market. This will be an even bigger deal for wind, than the solar mentioned in the article, here in the northeast.


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## woodgeek (Jun 5, 2017)

CaptSpiff said:


> Bit of a tangent here, but this is another example of why I do not fear climate change. I truly believe that we'll solve those forecast global "problems" with Technology Leaps, like the nugget described here.
> 
> The way I see it Economic utility sized storage capability will allow wind farms to ride thru overnight wind curtailments, make more money thru increase Capacity payments, and participate in the very lucrative reserve energy capacity market. This will be an even bigger deal for wind, than the solar mentioned in the article, here in the northeast.



I BOTH am optimistic about tech rather than policy progress (or rather, the willingness of most politicians to subsidize and enable negative cost, popular measures) AND pessimistic about the damage AGW will wreak on the biosphere from past emissions or near future emissions that are 'baked in'.

I think the humans will be by and large 'ok', but a lot of less adaptable creatures and whole unique ecosystems will be lost.


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## Seasoned Oak (Jun 5, 2017)

Another benefit is electric security. In the case of a large scale disruption of power from any number of reasons, even the ability to pay for it in the event of economic collapse in the future ,it would be beneficial for some % of the population to have the ability to generate their own power. So some form of gradually phased out incentives may be necessary.


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## Ashful (Jun 5, 2017)

Radical tech change always creates an opportunity for substantial investment gains.  So only one question here... how can investors profit from this?


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## woodgeek (Jun 5, 2017)

Ashful said:


> Radical tech change always creates an opportunity for substantial investment gains.  So only one question here... how can investors profit from this?



You just have to pick the winners....or get in early with a diversified portfolio of solar and storage companies.

I am not a financial speculator myself, but it seems that a lot of those guys love (hate) TESLA, and go long (short).

In terms of timing, there are still **plenty** of investors out there for whom the penny has not yet dropped re RE/EV.


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## Hasufel (Jun 6, 2017)

Ashful said:


> Radical tech change always creates an opportunity for substantial investment gains.  So only one question here... how can investors profit from this?


Sometimes you need to think beyond the obvious. For example, during the California gold rush, a lot of people got rich not by prospecting for gold but rather by selling supplies to prospectors at a significant markup.


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## begreen (Jun 6, 2017)

Same in Seattle and British Columbia during the Yukon gold rush. Some very notable persons made their fortunes by dropping pick and shovel and opening up a whore house.


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## EatenByLimestone (Jun 7, 2017)

http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-93497988/

LA is rethinking their gas powerplants.


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## jebatty (Jun 7, 2017)

My son and I had a discussion over the weekend on where the next major game changer/paradigm shift will come from ... and who will have that idea that results in a new reality. We didn't come up with the answer, but we both thought that people who think very radically and can attract large amounts of capital, like Elon Musk, likely are the ones to watch.


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## Seasoned Oak (Jun 7, 2017)

Hasufel said:


> Sometimes you need to think beyond the obvious. For example, during the California gold rush, a lot of people got rich not by prospecting for gold but rather by selling supplies to prospectors at a significant markup.


Today that would be called "price gouging"


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## Ashful (Jun 7, 2017)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Today that would be called "price gouging"


That usually requires a captive audience, such as those requiring mold remediation in the wake of Hurricane Sandy.


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## Seasoned Oak (Jun 8, 2017)

Ashful said:


> That usually requires a captive audience, such as those requiring mold remediation in the wake of Hurricane Sandy.


I think market forces apply there as well. When you have contractors driving from other states staying in ,motels ,working 7 days a week ,paying overtime ect. Its a given they have to charge more than they normally would ,a lot more. Iv seen people pay 3 to 4 times more for a job done in non-emergency situations ,just because they want it done TODAY instead of next week.


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## Highbeam (Jun 8, 2017)

aka, highway robbery. Sure I'll give you some gas but it will cost you 10$ a gallon!

The market dictates prices and if the market will pay a high price then that's the current value of your product.


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## maple1 (Jun 8, 2017)

So nobody knows how they are storing?

Isn't storage the big issue in all this - and if someone has it figured out (and one could assume they must, at that price), that would be THE big news. Would it not?


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## EatenByLimestone (Jun 8, 2017)

The topography of the area should give you a clue.  Sleds with generators on the wheels wouldn't be good in a flat area.   A lack of water would stop water transfers between resevours at different levels.  

I remember reading about Germany using a mine for the reservoir so topography isn't necessary a clue for that.


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## Highbeam (Jun 9, 2017)

maple1 said:


> So nobody knows how they are storing?
> 
> Isn't storage the big issue in all this - and if someone has it figured out (and one could assume they must, at that price), that would be THE big news. Would it not?



For sure. Give me a good/cheap 30-40 kwh battery and we can talk about not even needing the grid. It's coming.


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## Ashful (Jun 9, 2017)

Highbeam said:


> For sure. Give me a good/cheap 30-40 kwh battery and we can talk about not even needing the grid. It's coming.



Until you have a cloudy day.  Heck, we have some months averaging over 100 kW/h per day, and an occasional run of two weeks of cloudy or rainy weather.  Besides, the grid becomes your battery, at some point, when you have occasion to generate more than you consume.


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## Highbeam (Jun 9, 2017)

Ashful said:


> Until you have a cloudy day.  Heck, we have some months averaging over 100 kW/h per day, and an occasional run of two weeks of cloudy or rainy weather.  Besides, the grid becomes your battery, at some point, when you have occasion to generate more than you consume.



Don't you just size the solar panel array to provide enough power even on a cloudy day? Solar still works with clouds.The grid makes an excellent battery until/unless the whole net metering thing goes away.


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## Seasoned Oak (Jun 9, 2017)

As long as the utility is involved they will find a way to get their pound of flesh. Options are always better. In a few years you should be able to buy degraded electric car batteries reasonable.


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## begreen (Jun 9, 2017)

Highbeam said:


> Don't you just size the solar panel array to provide enough power even on a cloudy day? Solar still works with clouds.The grid makes an excellent battery until/unless the whole net metering thing goes away.


The size of the array depends on the amount of appropriate space one has and budget.

Cloudy days in the winter are lousy for production at our latitude. Even today which is cloudy but bright our system is putting out 1/3d it's normal output. In the winter, with heavy overcast the output is about a tenth of capacity.


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## questarthews (Jun 10, 2017)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Another benefit is electric security. In the case of a large scale disruption of power from any number of reasons, even the ability to pay for it in the event of economic collapse in the future ,it would be beneficial for some % of the population to have the ability to generate their own power. So some form of gradually phased out incentives may be necessary.


Personally, I'd like to see us use a modified form of subsidy where, rather than the gov't giving a large chunk of cash to a company to help them grow and hope they don't go out of business, they give it to individual home owners in the form of up front loans.
The homeowners pay it back over time at a low interest rate and the money is re-lent out, steadily growing the number of homes that are either off grid, or part of the overall grid similar to net metering.
They can set specific requirements for quality and inefficiencies, but the homeowners can choose the product/company, allowing them to decide who wins in the market rather than hoping the gov't chooses the right product/service.
Set aside a certain chunk each year to give out as loans, and each year, as older loans are paid back, the number of new homes with solar/wind or whatever being installed grows.


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## begreen (Jun 11, 2017)

More on the declining costs of renewable energy. 
http://rameznaam.com/2015/08/10/how-cheap-can-solar-get-very-cheap-indeed/


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## Seasoned Oak (Jun 11, 2017)

Looks like good news indeed.  Wind seems to be topping out but solar still has a long way to go.


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## questarthews (Jun 11, 2017)

Great article, @begreen.


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## TonyVideo (Jun 11, 2017)

Electric companies currently do not need storage. They need the power the most when the sun is out.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk


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## EatenByLimestone (Jun 11, 2017)

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/competition-offshore-wind-ramps-massachusetts-47966124


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## sloeffle (Jun 15, 2017)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...in-the-renewable-energy-revolution-2017-06-14


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## maple1 (Jun 15, 2017)

TonyVideo said:


> Electric companies currently do not need storage. They need the power the most when the sun is out.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk



I can't agree or disagree with that with any certainty, but the OP info talks about 4.5 cents/kwh including storage. Storage seems to be a big question mark still, also per sloeflles link just above. So I am still scratching my head over 4.5 cents/kwh including storage - how can they quote a price like that when storage is still this huge question mark?

(That link also suggests that electric companies do need storage, at times - well, at least could benefit from it greatly vs. firing up a fossil fuel generator from time to time).


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## Ashful (Jun 15, 2017)

Long-term, won't the storage come from 100 million electric cars, plugged into the grid on any given evening?  Smart management of a national-scale fleet of electric cars creates quite a bit of storage capacity.


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## begreen (Jun 15, 2017)

The field is changing rapidly. Last year several flow battery technologies were brought to market. There are several other technologies competing to disrupt the market:
http://www.electronicdesign.com/analog/7-energy-storage-disruptors-watch


Ashful said:


> Long-term, won't the storage come from 100 million electric cars, plugged into the grid on any given evening? Smart management of a national-scale fleet of electric cars creates quite a bit of storage capacity.


That could be, or it could be a combo of homes, businesses and cars. Tech companies though are still going to need local solutions. The power requirements of data centers and cloud computing are enormous.


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## begreen (Jun 15, 2017)

More information on current battery technologies competing in the grid power space.
http://www.powermag.com/battery-storage-goes-mainstream-2/?pagenum=1


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## woodgeek (Jun 15, 2017)

Ashful said:


> Long-term, won't the storage come from 100 million electric cars, plugged into the grid on any given evening?  Smart management of a national-scale fleet of electric cars creates quite a bit of storage capacity.



Probably not.  Having a smart charger that puts charge in when the utility is 'flush', e.g. with renewable power, yes.  Pulling energy out of the battery to power the grid, probably not much.

The first, demand response helps with RE intermittency.
The second, will wear the battery out prematurely.  For example, my LEAF battery costs $6000 has a 24 kWh capacity and is good for say 1000 cycles.  Thus, each 24 kWh cycle costs $6 in wear, or $0.25/kWh.  While batteries will get cheaper, they will likely be undercut by stationary batteries.

If the power company would pay you to add miles on your vehicle, and the miles actually wore it out like real miles, how much would you charge per mile?


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## Ashful (Jun 15, 2017)

woodgeek said:


> Probably not.  Having a smart charger that puts charge in when the utility is 'flush', e.g. with renewable power, yes.  Pulling energy out of the battery to power the grid, probably not much.
> 
> The first, demand response helps with RE intermittency.
> The second, will wear the battery out prematurely.  For example, my LEAF battery costs $6000 has a 24 kWh capacity and is good for say 1000 cycles.  Thus, each 24 kWh cycle costs $6 in wear, or $0.25/kWh.  While batteries will get cheaper, they will likely be undercut by stationary batteries.
> ...



I like the way you think, but I was not even thinking of discharge from batteries to fill any deficits, just managing the charging to target the load for the timing of maximum surplus.  It's an enormous shock absorber, we'd be foolish not to use it.  On this basis, there would be no additional wear and tear on the vehicle of those with predictable schedules.


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## woodgeek (Jun 18, 2017)

Nice EIA article on a renewable energy milestone falling in the US....

*Wind and solar in March accounted for 10% of U.S. electricity generation for first time*

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=31632#

Partly due to low electricity demand in spring months, expected to repeat in April as well.  Also some graphs of utility-scale solar versus 'small solar'.


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