# The cost of solar power



## begreen (Jul 7, 2010)

This is an encouraging trend. It's startling how much the cost per watt has changed since just 2004.

http://tinyurl.com/24npek4

Why is this important? In the energy independence thread it was brought up that Spain is having problems with a glut of wind power as a result of offering very high incentives based on tax breaks and premiums for their energy production. The program's temporary problem is that it was too successful. Over 50% of Spain's power is now generated by wind. I say temporary, because as electric vehicles come on line, the load on the electrical infrastructure will rise, perhaps dramatically. 

So why not here? Well it is happening, but some big utilities and energy producers are fighting it because the energy produced is very cheap and it pushes down the more lucrative revenues gained from gas, etc. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-04-22/windmill-boom-curbs-electric-power-prices.html The gist of the article is that some folks are worried about the stock market value of the company going down because it is succeeding at delivering cheaper power. 

I still think this is a temporary issue. We will see some countries developing systems to store energy in the human infrastructure via their cars and homes. But what an upside down world. Why should the stock market dictate common sense efficiencies with the energy infrastructure. This is where the private sector goes amuck. Their values get switched from their core customers, the ones paying the bills, to an abstract paper customer, the shareholder. This is an intrinsic conflict of interest. These conflicting needs are often in opposition to each other.
http://greeneconomypost.com/wind-makes-power-too-cheap-10939.htm


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## Jags (Jul 7, 2010)

I keep re-reviewing solar electric.  I have over 6000 sqft of roof on two buildings that is covered with tin or shingles.  I wish they were covered with solar panels. >:-(


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## begreen (Jul 7, 2010)

Seems like a natural. What state incentives does Illinois offer?


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## Jags (Jul 7, 2010)

BeGreen said:
			
		

> Seems like a natural. What state incentives does Illinois offer?



Not enough.  I have calculated the payback time to be about equal to the life expectancy of the panels.  And with a LARGE initial outlay of cash.  Part of the problem is the expensive install.  They won't certify a DIY guy for installation, even though I have mucho skooling in electronics/electricity/computer control stuff.

Quite simply - for me, it doesn't pay (yet).


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## btuser (Jul 7, 2010)

So I've got a question:

If I could grow my own food, heat my own house, light my own house,  how is my boss going to get me to leave my house to get me to come to work so he can make money at my expense?

That may be why it will never happen.


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## EatenByLimestone (Jul 7, 2010)

You have to pay the property taxes somehow.  Unfortunately, they never go away.

Matt


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## begreen (Jul 8, 2010)

With broadband, a growing portion of the population is already working at home. Boss visits them virtually or vice versa. My accountant did our taxes out of Arizona this year. Not every job needs a body on location. But more importantly, if you grow your own food, have no energy bills to speak of, why do you need a boss? Better to be your own in that circumstance.


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## oldspark (Jul 8, 2010)

btuser said:
			
		

> So I've got a question:
> 
> If I could grow my own food, heat my own house, light my own house,  how is my boss going to get me to leave my house to get me to come to work so he can make money at my expense?
> 
> That may be why it will never happen.


 You have to buy all that stuff to do that and it isnt cheap so back to work.


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## jharkin (Jul 8, 2010)

This is great news.  What I'd like to see in addition to the financial analysis though, is the energy analysis. Ie. Not just how many years till you break even on cost, but how many years till it produces more energy than was consumed making the panel.


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## Jags (Jul 8, 2010)

jharkin said:
			
		

> This is great news.  What I'd like to see in addition to the financial analysis though, is the energy analysis. Ie. Not just how many years till you break even on cost, but how many years till it produces more energy than was consumed making the panel.



I understand your interest, but the fact that a 20 year break even point for a large investment is equal to loosing money.  Take the same capital investment and actually INVEST it at a measly 5% and you come out WAY ahead.  Thats my problem, I can't seem to make the math work in favor of the solar panels.

Simply stated: A large investment for a 20 year period of time better do more than break even - or its a failure in my eyes.


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## jharkin (Jul 8, 2010)

Jags said:
			
		

> I understand your interest, but the fact that a 20 year break even point for a large investment is equal to loosing money.  Take the same capital investment and actually INVEST it at a measly 5% and you come out WAY ahead.  Thats my problem, I can't seem to make the math work in favor of the solar panels.
> 
> Simply stated: A large investment for a 20 year period of time better do more than break even - or its a failure in my eyes.




I should have been more clear on the intent of my query. I was not thinking so much of the personal payback to me - but thinking of the bigger picture in light of the green economy thread.  PV is being proposed as a possible long term alternatives to fossil fuels as oil/gas/coal run out.  The detractors of PV often point to it as being no more than an "oil extender"  In order for it to be a true replacement for oil it has to be not only cost effective, but make more power than is consumed in manufacturing of the system.


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## Delta-T (Jul 8, 2010)

what an interesting dilemma. Solar is tough. Pretty pricey to make those little cells out of magic sand. We need a universally adaptable DC-AC conversion pack to plug into your meter (I'm sure there are plenty of "proprietary" inverters that you "must" buy from the maker of the unit you are installing). Everyone needs a bit of J-Channel or C- channel on their roof for sub-stucture and then the race is on. I wonder what the relationship is for cost vs. longevity if you decide to make the panels out of less durable materials, or out of recyclables and expect them to become obsolete and to be upgraded in say 6-10 years. I see that there are some integrated shingle/PV systems that should hit the market in the next year or so. Maybe thats the leap we need to make this stuff sort of ubiquitous. I still think commercial applications make far more sense than residential apps just for the sheer size of the operations. Malls should all be topped with PV and lil windmills IMO.


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## Dune (Jul 8, 2010)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photov...k_time_and_energy_returned_on_energy_invested
http://www.ecotopia.com/apollo2/pvepbtoz.htm


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## begreen (Jul 8, 2010)

Thin film panels are what are taking off. They are printed, not built on silicon chips. That's one area that is driving the price down significantly. I posted here a few years back about this technology being developed. Now the plants are on-line and producing. Problem is that the demand for these panels is highest in the industrial and utility market so they can be hard to get. 

http://www.firstsolar.com/en/product_design.php
http://www.uni-solar.com/uni-solar-difference/technology/

nice how they blend right in with the existing roof:
http://www.uni-solar.com/products/residential-products/


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## Dune (Jul 8, 2010)

Delta-T said:
			
		

> what an interesting dilemma. Solar is tough. Pretty pricey to make those little cells out of magic sand. We need a universally adaptable DC-AC conversion pack to plug into your meter (I'm sure there are plenty of "proprietary" inverters that you "must" buy from the maker of the unit you are installing). Everyone needs a bit of J-Channel or C- channel on their roof for sub-stucture and then the race is on. I wonder what the relationship is for cost vs. longevity if you decide to make the panels out of less durable materials, or out of recyclables and expect them to become obsolete and to be upgraded in say 6-10 years. I see that there are some integrated shingle/PV systems that should hit the market in the next year or so. Maybe thats the leap we need to make this stuff sort of ubiquitous. I still think commercial applications make far more sense than residential apps just for the sheer size of the operations. Malls should all be topped with PV and lil windmills IMO.



Invest in a copy of Home Power magazine. This will dispel your idea about propietary inverters.

The big problem right now is the one Jags described, the inability to get certified for DIY installation regardless of experience. As a marine engineer, I was responsible for installing and maintaining large complex electrical systems, multiple voltage, often ac and dc. I have speced and installed dozens of inverters on vessels up to several thousand tons and was licensed by the Coast Guard for such work. In spite of that, and many, many years in construction, I can in no way install my own system and qualify for credits, and believe me I can be a persistant SOB when I want something.


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## Jags (Jul 8, 2010)

Delta-T said:
			
		

> I still think commercial applications make far more sense than residential apps just for the sheer size of the operations. Malls should all be topped with PV and lil windmills IMO.



There is truth to that, but with my own personal stuff, I could slap 6000+ sqft on rooftops at my residence.  More than enough to produce all the juice I could use.  Heck, I could cover a square acre of land and reduce my lawn mowing as well as produce enough electric to power everything - home, car, heat, etc.  I just wished it made financial sense. 

Thanks for the links Dune: it was an interesting factoid.

Those roof panels are cool too.


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## Jags (Jul 8, 2010)

Dune said:
			
		

> I can in no way install my own system and qualify for credits, and believe me I can be a persistant SOB when I want something.



Thats the part that jingles my spurs.  I could understand a "final" inspection or a multi-stage inspection during the installation phase, but to eliminate the DIY sector just eliminated the largest "fan base" and also pushes the costs WAY up.  Have a licensed inspector -I get that, but I can run wires with the best of them.  There is virtually no phase of the installation that I would not feel comfortable in doing and passing the inspection for.


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## begreen (Jul 8, 2010)

My understanding is that is the way it works in WA state. You can work with a contractor if they oversee the work. Here they are pushing for the technology to be adopted. Finally last year legislation was passed that clarified the incentives. First there is the 30% federal tax credit. Then no sales tax is charged.  Then there is NET metering. If all the main components are made in WA state, you net meter .54/kwhr! If you get together with a few neighbors and set up a cooperative system the NET metering for a community solar system is a whopping $1.08/kw hr. You can see where the payback times start becoming very attractive. And remember, payback is being calculated at current electric rates. Want to bet rates go up, perhaps significantly over the lifespan of the system? 
http://www.seattle.gov/light/conserve/cgen/docs/SCL_ElectricSolarGuide.pdf

Maybe contact some of the local solar contractors and see if they will oversee and permit the process with you supplying the labor? Do understand that the contractor may be reluctant at first. I expect that for every qualified person, they get about 20 yahoos that don't know what they are doing. There is a lot to consider, but it's basic mechanic and electrical when you get down to it. 

Thinking about payback only is missing part of the picture. By installing the system you are reducing fossil fuel dependency. That reduces the very dirty mining of coal and emissions from power plants all of which has some major long term benefits. If you have a family, you will be surprised at how good it makes you all feel that you are contributing, clean power from the sun. You'll get a giddy feeling from seeing the meter spin backwards. And this is infrastructure that increases the value of your property.


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## oldspark (Jul 8, 2010)

I'm all for green power but the USA won't even make an attempt to conserve energy let alone spend big bucks for green power projects.
On another note what are the numbers for solar energy KW per dollar.
Passive solar heated houses and conservation will have a bigger impact with less dollars spent-short term, long term-get our head out of our a$$!


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## begreen (Jul 8, 2010)

Actually, in states that have taken an aggressive educational stance backed with incentives, people definitely are conserving energy. Look how compact fluorescent lights have taken hold. There are also some nice commercial incentives provided for companies that dramatically address their energy consumption. And they do it because it's a win-win situation. Reducing utility costs makes it more competitive.


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## oldspark (Jul 8, 2010)

Yes I agree on some stuff, but every time oil prices go down SUV sales go up. Been driving small cars for 40 years and been made fun of a lot (for other things too but not important) and still to this day people make fun of my honda. Usually people conserve when they have to because of cash problems not choice.


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## Jags (Jul 8, 2010)

BeGreen said:
			
		

> By installing the system you are reducing fossil fuel dependency. That reduces the very dirty mining of coal and emissions from power plants all of which has some major long term benefits.



My use of electricity won't change fossil fuel dependency.  I look to the west and see this about 15 miles away.


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## begreen (Jul 8, 2010)

oldspark said:
			
		

> Yes I agree on some stuff, but every time oil prices go down SUV sales go up. Been driving small cars for 40 years and been made fun of a lot (for other things too but not important) and still to this day people make fun of my honda. Usually people conserve when they have to because of cash problems not choice.



That seems to be more the case in the midwest. Out here I would guess that 80% of the cars are small to moderate sized. It's actually pretty rare to see a big land yacht running around. However, we make up for it in SUVs and pickups which are very popular. But even there I see a lot of people downsizing to more fuel efficient models.


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## begreen (Jul 8, 2010)

Jags said:
			
		

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It actually will. We are all tied into the grid. Your electrons may be coming from 200+ miles away at times.


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## oldspark (Jul 8, 2010)

BeGreen said:
			
		

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 I think it can be more than 200 miles in some cases the grid is a nightmare.


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## Jags (Jul 8, 2010)

BeGreen said:
			
		

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I was just being a little snide.  

I'm ALL for it.  I would LOVE to be electrically independent. I got the room and ability. It is simply a matter economics at this point.  It will get better.  New tech is popping up all the time.  Better production methods and higher conversion factors are also being addressed at this time.  I am just waiting for it to be a "no brainer".


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## begreen (Jul 8, 2010)

I was surprised to find out that Illinois is the #1 nuclear power generating state. 48% generated by nukes. 

If I lived out there I would definitely invest in a combo of wind and solar. Seems like Illinois has some pretty nice solar incentives. There's even a nice rebate (on top of the Fed credit) plus NET metering. Could be that if costs gets cheaper the line for the rebate allocation is too far out. Right now 2010 is all allocated. Got to get on the 2011 list. 

I'd expect that the numbers would make sense as IL gets more sunshine than we do. What does the back of the napkin calculation come out for Illinois right now for say a 3KW system? I'm getting about 14yrs using this calculator: http://www.findsolar.com/index.php?page=rightforme


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## Dune (Jul 8, 2010)

Jags said:
			
		

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Jags, with your ability, it may already be a no-brainer if you stop waiting for thin film prices to lower and look into diy solar thermal-electric   instead of photovoltaic.   I think you get  more bang for your buck that way.


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## oldspark (Jul 8, 2010)

I used the caculator and too pricey for me, wont live long enough to make it worth my while, I could build a small wind turbine and be money ahead.


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## Jags (Jul 8, 2010)

BG - thats probably pretty close for a 3kw system.  I get 14-16 with operational costs.

Edit: but a 3kw will not provide enough for my full electrical needs.  I need to be over double that at current consumption for 100% replacement.  And conservation????  Yeah, when the kids are gone maybe, but not a day before.  I stand more chance of fighting a horny, rabid, water buffalo.


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## Jags (Jul 8, 2010)

Dune - with the average cost of Polycrystalline silicon cell type panels a 175 watt panel is $800-$1000 bucks.  As you know (with your background) they simply don't average 175 watts (it is very typical to use an 80% value of output).  It will take 20 or more of these panels to make a 3kw array.  Again - about $20,000 in initial outlay.

At current electric prices - thats a full 15 years of buying electricity.


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## Dune (Jul 8, 2010)

BeGreen said:
			
		

> Actually, in states that have taken an aggressive educational stance backed with incentives, people definitely are conserving energy. Look how compact fluorescent lights have taken hold. There are also some nice commercial incentives provided for companies that dramatically address their energy consumption. And they do it because it's a win-win situation. Reducing utility costs makes it more competitive.



I did the math for me here last year. We have net metering now available, but on much less generous terms. We can bank power, and transfer power to a relative in the same distrubution network. We can not sell power. We do have better state incentive though, 
$1.50/installed k/h upto 5K. In spite of all, the only way I could do it were if I could install it myself, which I can't. Major hurdle for me and I am sure a great many others, who would act now, if not already. Realize also that rates here are very high, so the payback would be fast. Their are investor groups forming, to take advantage of, oops, I mean help those like me that could use it but can't really aford it, but that further dilutes the savings. (if I were not already installing a co-gen system, I would feel differently)


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## begreen (Jul 8, 2010)

Is it possible to find a local electrician that is willing to supervise/permit and be on hand for the inspection for a reasonable fee?


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## Dune (Jul 8, 2010)

Jags said:
			
		

> Dune - with the average cost of Polycrystalline silicon cell type panels a 175 watt panel is $800-$1000 bucks.  As you know (with your background) they simply don't average 175 watts (it is very typical to use an 80% value of output).  It will take 20 or more of these panels to make a 3kw array.  Again - about $20,000 in initial outlay.
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> At current electric prices - thats a full 15 years of buying electricity.



Right. I am with you on that. For me, here, installed, 5Kw runs over fortyK and with incentives, etc. still means 20K out of my pocket. 

Yes, I get some back as credit, but still write a check for twenty. I am better off doing something on my own, of my own construction and finance. I chose 100% bio-diesel, water cooled 25KW generator instead of solar thermal-electric, but I investigated it. Note, I am not talking about photovoltaic panels.

http://hardware.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=07/05/15/0124253
http://www.thebackshed.com/Windmill/forum1/forum_posts.asp?TID=951


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## Dune (Jul 8, 2010)

BeGreen said:
			
		

> Is it possible to find a local electrician that is willing to supervise/permit and be on hand for the inspection for a reasonable fee?



Yes. It is possible for a licensed electrician to get certified imediately and pay the fee. I wish my brother was an electrician instead of a plumber.


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## begreen (Jul 8, 2010)

Jags said:
			
		

> BG - thats probably pretty close for a 3kw system.  I get 14-16 with operational costs.
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> Edit: but a 3kw will not provide enough for my full electrical needs.  I need to be over double that at current consumption for 100% replacement.  And conservation????  Yeah, when the kids are gone maybe, but not a day before.  I stand more chance of fighting a horny, rabid, water buffalo.



The calculator shows a 14.6yr payback for a 4.5KW system installed just south of Chicago. As far as getting the kids to conserve, do they get an allowance? Take waste out of it if they do. My boys are grown, and still need some reminders, but they are pretty good. If they are going to survive in the future, learning to conserve and live within one's means could be one of the better lessons you can pass on to them.


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## begreen (Jul 8, 2010)

Jags said:
			
		

> Dune - with the average cost of Polycrystalline silicon cell type panels a 175 watt panel is $800-$1000 bucks.  As you know (with your background) they simply don't average 175 watts (it is very typical to use an 80% value of output).  It will take 20 or more of these panels to make a 3kw array.  Again - about $20,000 in initial outlay.
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> At current electric prices - thats a full 15 years of buying electricity.



Have you checked current pricing? Look at the 216w Sharps for instance. 
http://www.affordable-solar.com/solar.panels.htm
http://www.ecodirect.com/Sharp-Solar-Panels-s/210.htm
http://www.firemountainsolar.com/


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## Delta-T (Jul 8, 2010)

Jags- if you have enough kids, or they are strong enough.....a few hours a day on the "Conan Generator" may just be what you need. BTW, 6000 sq ft of roof is not a house, its a compound.


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## Jags (Jul 8, 2010)

BeGreen said:
			
		

> As far as getting the kids to conserve, do they get an allowance? Take waste out of it if they do.


A 21 yr old girl with a 3 and 2 year old.  No allowance. Just a lot of eye rolling.  ABSOLUTELY NO understanding of how the world turns.  I got there "too late" if ya know what I mean.


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## oldspark (Jul 8, 2010)

Pricey no matter what way you slice and dice it.


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## Jags (Jul 8, 2010)

Delta-T said:
			
		

> BTW, 6000 sq ft of roof is not a house, its a compound.



Naaa, just a couple of my sheds.  A 40x60 and a 52x74.  I didn't even count the couple of small ones OR the house.

You can clearly see the small one (white) and the big one is behind the tree and in the background.  This is looking at the backside of the sheds.


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## Delta-T (Jul 8, 2010)

did you call that a shed? round here thats either a barn or a warehouse/factory. I hope you have BIG hobbies and not just piles of old windows (seems a popular thing to collect in New England).


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## oldspark (Jul 8, 2010)

The sheds in farm country are much bigger than sheds in crab country.


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## Jags (Jul 8, 2010)

Delta-T said:
			
		

> did you call that a shed? round here thats either a barn or a warehouse/factory. I hope you have BIG hobbies and not just piles of old windows (seems a popular thing to collect in New England).



4 tractors, plow jeep, big generator, yard sprayers, 2 trailers, various wood and building materials, packard parts and engines, a couple of toy cars, shop (both metal and wood), 4 garden tractors, log splitter,general storage, etc. lots of other stuff.  But I ain't one of them pile guys.  I hate seeing piles, thats why I have to have sqft.  EVERYTHING is operational and easily accessible.  It gets used or it goes.


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## oldspark (Jul 8, 2010)

I guess I am one of "those guys" but as I get  older I am trying to get better so my daughters do not have to sort through it after I'm in the ground.


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## Jags (Jul 8, 2010)

oldspark said:
			
		

> I guess I am one of "those guys" but as I get  older I am trying to get better so my daughters do not have to sort through it after I'm in the ground.



I understand, but there really isn't alot of "junk" left.  Basically anything in the buildings could be rolled out to the side of the road with a "For Sale" sign and be very marketable.  And I'm only 41 so hopefully I have a while left to play with the stuff.


Full disclosure: this was one of the original "family farms" it has been in my family since 1896.  I went through the "junk" stage about 7 years ago (when I bought it) and kept the gems.


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## Dune (Jul 8, 2010)

Good for you. Is it still a working farm?


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## peakbagger (Jul 9, 2010)

FYI for New Hampshire folks looking at Solar, you do not need an electricians license to design and install a PV system to qualifiy for a rebate. The building inspector still needs to sign off on the installations so they could require it in their jurisdiction but in most towns the homeowner can do their own electrical on their own home. The installation does need to meet the applicable version of the electrical code but there are a lot or resources on the web. 

One very useful (but a tad bit technical) is http://www.altestore.com/store/media/pdfs/photovoltaic_NEC_code_practices2005.pdf

The NH rebate program is pretty complex so make sure you read it and understand it before proceeding. They now require a preapproval process to ensure that a person doesnt build a solar system where its not going to work well.


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## Jags (Jul 9, 2010)

Dune said:
			
		

> Good for you. Is it still a working farm?



Nope - not in my family's name anyhow.  The land was sold to two LONG time neighbors.  We had boys out from Chicago that wanted to buy it, but my father told them to go pound sand (even though they were offering quite a bit more cash).


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## oldspark (Jul 9, 2010)

Jags said:
			
		

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 Good for you, too much of the land is going to large corporations keeping the little guy out of it.


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## Jags (Jul 9, 2010)

I finally had a little time to review some of the links posted previously. Very interesting stuff.  And yes, it appears that some prices have come down.  As an example - on of the links that BG posted states that you can by a pallet of 30 panels that are 224 watt panels for less than $18,000.  Its a start.  

From most sites that I have read, the payback time is still from 14-16 years, but most panels have some sort of warranty to 25 years with a life span expected to be around 30 years.  So basically in 30 years you "should" be able to double your investment (this assumes that electric rates hold steady, and we know that ain't gonna happen).

It is food for thought.  I personally think we are on the verge of cost and efficiency breakthroughs on the new panels coming out.  I may kick myself, but I think I am still gonna wait a bit.  I am betting on the same trends that we have seen with computer pricing or flat screen tv's, etc.  The first ones are slow, clunky and expensive.  With each generation they get better and less expensive.

I would love to see the day that Home Depot sells a plug in grid tied 5kw system for 2000 bucks.  YEEE HAWW.


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## begreen (Jul 9, 2010)

You are probably right. Commercial thin-film solar panel plants are just coming on line now. They are hard to get at this point, but should drop the price by over 50%. The question is when and will there still be the incentives in place to make this major investment feasible. The other side of the coin is by getting them sooner, you stand a better chance of inspiring those young girls so they don't waste that starlight by leaving the lights on when they don't need them.

We're in a similar position, but my main issue is the lack of an all day clear shot at the sun. That and who knows if I will even be around in 15 years.


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## Jags (Jul 9, 2010)

BeGreen said:
			
		

> The other side of the coin is by getting them sooner, you stand a better chance of inspiring those young girls so they don't waste that starlight by leaving the lights on when they don't need them.



Baahaha - your assuming that they pay any attention to me at all.  I could haul in a nuke powered submarine, park it in the drive and plug the house into it, and they wouldn't even ask what the big "gray thing" is. :lol:


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## fossil (Jul 9, 2010)

Jags said:
			
		

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Actually, they're black...and you'd need to provide a _buttload_ of cooling water to it for it to operate in your driveway.   %-P


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## Jags (Jul 9, 2010)

fossil said:
			
		

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Will a garden hose work??

Dang it - I already put my bid in for the used Russian sub on e-bay.


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## begreen (Jul 9, 2010)

Hope it's diesel or you have a lll-ooo-nnn-ggg 4/0 extension cord.


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## BrotherBart (Jul 9, 2010)

I still want that little baby nuke at the back of the yard. In a little building that looks just like a Central Boiler OWB. I could power the house and a good sized still off of it. Hell I could heat the house by just circulating the cooling water.

"911 where are you and what is your emergency?"

"BB Manor and we have a core meltdown in progress." 

"Meet the responders at the end of the driveway."

"Hell no. I will be half way to Milwaukee by the time they get here. Bye."


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## Dune (Jul 10, 2010)

Came across this this morning: http://www.motherearthnews.com/ener...yths-of-solar-electricity-energy-payback.aspx


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## Delta-T (Jul 10, 2010)

BrotherBart said:
			
		

> I still want that little baby nuke at the back of the yard. In a little building that looks just like a Central Boiler OWB. I could power the house and a good sized still off of it. Hell I could heat the house by just circulating the cooling water.
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BB theres a lil nuke generating station at UMASS Lowell. Its about 25ft diameter and very.....non-descript. If you look at a campus map its labeld "The BRT" (for Big Round Thing), on north campus right near the campus security office..a lil creapy. Might be just what you're looking for.


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## begreen (Jul 10, 2010)

Dune said:
			
		

> Came across this this morning: http://www.motherearthnews.com/ener...yths-of-solar-electricity-energy-payback.aspx



Thanks for posting. The related articles are interesting too.


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## Dune (Jul 10, 2010)

You Sir are most welcome, and thankyou for fixing the link as well.


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## oldspark (Jul 11, 2010)

The MEN link just talks about energy payback not about payback for the cost of unit, am I missing something or is that what you had in mind?


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## jebatty (Jul 11, 2010)

Us wood-burners often overlook the fact that burning wood is stored solar power in a high energy, compact package, and perhaps the most efficient and cost-effective thing we can do is move towards 100% space heating from wood while maximizing conservation in use of electricity. On average in the US we use lots more electricity in a typical home that do citizens in other developed countries. Which means we can achieve a lot by conservation and reducing electricity waste without reducing our standard of living.

In 2008 the average US home used 920 kwh/month. About 1/3 of that is for HVAC, 1/3 for kitchen and laundry, and 1/3 for lighting and electronics. Reducing a/c use might be the biggest single thing that can be done to reduce electric use. For us, switching to CFL's, turning off lights when not necessary, and turning off computers and all electronics with power strips reduced electric usage by 25%. Cost of doing this was near $0. Our average non-summer use, which includes supplemental electric heat, electric cook stove and oven, electric clothes dryer, and electric hot water heater, is right around 600 kwh, not great but down quite a lot from the past. That goes up in June-August when we need to run a dehumidifier in the basement.

Average home kwh use in Germany, Australia and most other developed countries is around 450-500 kwh, or about 1/2 of US average. Which brings to mind the thought of setting 500 kwh/month as our new goal for electric usage.


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## Dune (Jul 11, 2010)

oldspark said:
			
		

> The MEN link just talks about energy payback not about payback for the cost of unit, am I missing something or is that what you had in mind?



Just trying to dispel a rather persistant myth that the cost (in energy) to produce a panel is more than the panel will create in it's lifetime.

To be sure, solar electric will not work for everyone, a thorough investigation of it's utility is certainly needed before embarking upon such a large investment.


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## jharkin (Jul 12, 2010)

All this discussion makes me more and more want to look into going solar myself....

The only thing holding me back is the payback. We are young, just bought the house, don't have a ton of equity and have little ones on the way  soon. I'd have to finance it and really cant justify taking on the extra debt unless the payback is going to be under 10 years.

But with the rate the cost is coming down, 30% tax cut, and MA state credits maybe its only a couple years more before we reach that <10 yr payback?


-Jeremy


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## jharkin (Jul 12, 2010)

Have you guys seen this:

http://homewind.net/windestimator.html


I plugged in some very general numbers and its spitting out an estimate of 4 years to break even for a 50% capacity system with all the credits & financing the remainder.
Note I'm in eastern MA, and our average yearly usage is ~8000 kWh at $0.17 rate.

Curious if somebody who has soar could plug in your numbers and let us know if this calculator came close to your acutals....


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## begreen (Jul 12, 2010)

jharkin said:
			
		

> All this discussion makes me more and more want to look into going solar myself....
> 
> The only thing holding me back is the payback. We are young, just bought the house, don't have a ton of equity and have little ones on the way  soon. I'd have to finance it and really cant justify taking on the extra debt unless the payback is going to be under 10 years.
> 
> ...



When I put in a high quality stove, heat pump, refrigerator, washer, etc. it was not all about payback because I can't predict the future. But sure enough, my electrical and water rates went up and the increased efficiency started paying back quicker. I figured I stood a better chance of getting a return than putting the money into wall street. That was in 2006 and I've never regretted the decision.

There are other reasons besides payback for investing in alternative energy. For one, you are building future industries that are going to be a necessity going forward. There is also the increased value to the property, this is permanent infrastructure. Another reason is by installing a system, you become a spokesperson for alternative energy development. This influences your neighbors, friends and most importantly young people. They are always the most curious and appreciative when seeing adults that are willing to invest in their futures.


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## jharkin (Jul 13, 2010)

I did some rough figuring.

We use 8000-9000 kWh a year. A couple different estimator tools spit out ~3.5kW to get me around 50% production.  That I assume is under ideal conditions.  My actual situation is less than ideal - the best spot I have for an array is on the roof of the garage, that has about 240 ft2  of 12/12 pitch roof that faces roughly southwest.   There is one tree off to the east side that partially shades it up till 10am or so.

So I figure I have space to put up about 2.5kW of panels that will give me maybe 75% of ideal production. I could do a split and put panels on both the garage and the main house, but I hesitate because the main house has more tree shading, and for aesthetics I don't want the panels out front (trying to maintain the antique colonial look).

I ran the figures through 2 calculators.



http://homewind.net/windestimator.html 
For a 2.5kW array its estimating 22k gross install cost and 12k net after federal, state and MA rebates. I put an assumption of financing 80% of the net so its predicting 2500 out of pocket year one and then 2-3 years to break even.  It's seems to be very optimistic, using ideal conditions and accounting for Mass soalr carve out SREC  credits to make it cash positive.

Subtracting out the SRECs the break even point is 6 years.  Figuring I realistically will probably only produce ~70% of what the calculator assumes puts that at more like 10.



http://mercator.nrel.gov/imby
Using 2.5 kw at my actual values of 45deg tilt and 245 azimuth, it is predicting typical annual production of 2400 kWh. Using only federal tax incentives it spits out a payback of 32 years.



Then going back to the first calculator and de-rated the estimated utility saving by 20% to represent the more realistic 2400kWh/yr production. I get paybacks of 

10 years without SRECs
3 years with SRECs

I'm still unsure about this calculator - for one it assume a tax deductible loan, whereas I dont have the equity to borrow against - and the annual utility saving seem very optimistic.  It must be accounting for time of use net metering or something.


Defiantly interesting, but it still seems hard to justify something with a 10year payback that I'd be forced to take out a personal loan to finance.  Maybe in 5~10 years when Ive got the home equity to borrow against..... By then hopefully the cost will come down even more.


-Jeremy


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## sullystull (Jul 13, 2010)

Here's a pic of a job that was just completed in Morgantown, WV (home of West Virginia University).  The (3rd party) book store decided to install what is probably the largest private solar array in the state--52 panels.  So, for those of you with kids, send 'em to WVU to help reduce the payback time on this system.


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## GaryGary (Jul 14, 2010)

Hi,
I installed my own grid tie system, and ran into no problems.  I still qualified for all the rebates that are offered in Montana.

The system is 2150 watts.
Total cost before rebates $9959 ($4.63 per watt)
Cost after rebates $6471 ($3.01 per watt)
I did not really look around a lot for the best deals -- I think that one could probably do somewhat better than this.

PVWatts says the system will generate 3073 KWH per year, or about $300 saving at our current rates.  So far, its ahead of the PVWatts prediction.
So, right now its a $300/$6471 = 4.6% return on the investment.  
The return is tax free, and its protected against electricity rate increases.
I don't think that's so bad -- and, the system was a lot of fun to put in -- I learned a lot 

I don't think the simple payback calcs are of much use -- how do you know what electricity will cost in 10 years?  

The system uses the new Enphase micro inverters with one inverter on each panel.  It was very straightforward to install.
The permit people and the utility people were all cooperative -- I did not detect any negative attitude toward DIY systems at all.

This is all described in mind numbing detail here: http://www.builditsolar.com/Projects/PV/EnphasePV/Main.htm

You can see a live report on the system output (courtesy of Enphase) here:
http://www.builditsolar.com/Projects/PV/EnphasePV/RealTime.htm
If its nighttime, it won't be doing much 

The economics page on the project is kind of interesting from the point of view of how the return from PV compares to some of the other energy projects we have done -- in a word its pitiful -- I guess the message is do the other stuff first, then do PV.

Gary


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## begreen (Jul 14, 2010)

Thanks for the links Gary. I have been looking at the Enphase vs central inverter solution. One concern is the failure rate of these units. When I investigated about a year ago, there was a report where engineers took them apart and were concerned about the cheap capacitors used. Even sitting on a shelf the capacitors would fail in about 5 years, but behind a hot panel, the rate was much higher. Now that we are seriously looking into a system I started looking at Enphase again and find that there is little data out of the field on these units. Some websites are reporting that they have been forced by Enphase to pull the results of their testing. 

Have you heard anything about this? It concerns me because I have a shading issue and would like this to work, but locally we have seen inverter failures on a few Enphase installations, though Enphase appears to be claiming no field failures. (That seems almost impossible.) I just want the facts so that I can make a good decision. Can you shed more light on this product's successes and problems out in the field (not Enphase's own reports)? I'm also curious why Enphase was chosen for this location. There doesn't appear to be a tree in sight. Was it Enphase sponsored?

As an alternative we are looking at the Solar Magic product from National Semiconductors. Do you have any experience with this product? I like staying with the DC system, it allows us to use WA state made Silicon Energy panels, but also am finding it hard to get user field reports on this product. 

http://peswiki.com/index.php/Talk:Directory:Micro-Inverter_System_by_Enphase_Energy
http://www.wind-sun.com/ForumVB/showthread.php?t=5117


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## GaryGary (Jul 14, 2010)

BeGreen said:
			
		

> Thanks for the links Gary. I have been looking at the Enphase vs central inverter solution. One concern is the failure rate of these units. When I investigated about a year ago, there was a report where engineers took them apart and were concerned about the cheap capacitors used. Even sitting on a shelf the capacitors would fail in about 5 years, but behind a hot panel, the rate was much higher. Now that we are seriously looking into a system I started looking at Enphase again and find that there is little data out of the field on these units. Some websites are reporting that they have been forced by Enphase to pull the results of their testing.
> 
> Have you heard anything about this? It concerns me because I have a shading issue and would like this to work, but locally we have seen inverter failures on a few Enphase installations, though Enphase appears to be claiming no field failures. (That seems almost impossible.) I just want the facts so that I can make a good decision. Can you shed more light on this product's successes and problems out in the field (not Enphase's own reports)? I'm also curious why Enphase was chosen for this location. There doesn't appear to be a tree in sight. Was it Enphase sponsored?
> 
> ...



Hi,
I had not seen that before.
My system has been fine -- no failures of any kind.

The page describing my system gets a lot of reads a day, so I'd guess that if people were actually having much trouble I'd have gotten a few emails, but have not gotten any.
I've actually found the Enphase support people to be very knowledgeable and helpful -- maybe worth just giving them a call and asking if they have a response to these arguments.

You might also check with Guy M.  -- he put quite a bit of work into selecting his Enphase system, and I think he keeps up on things more than I.  He had an article on his system in Home Power a month ago.  His website is: 
http://www.arttec.net/SolarPower/index.htm 

One reason that I settled on Enphase beyond the usual set of reasons is that if I had used a single larger inverter, it would have had to be out in the weather, and they are not rated to operate at the kind of low temps we get here.  The Enphase inverters are rated down to -40F.

I understand the comment about paying someone to come out and replace a single inverter being a negative, but I have to say that for my system it would take me less than 10 minutes to do it myself -- there is really nothing to it.

I have also come to like the online reporting system they have.  You can go there and get a PV panel by PV panel report on how things are going.  Every inverter reports its status regularly, and if any of them are having a problem, Enphase automatically sends you an email.   Without this, I could see myself having a system with reduced output just because I'm not that good about checking that things are working.  It is a little spooky getting an email from your inverter 


I don't mean to say that these guys are not sincere or that they may not have a point, but it reminds me a little of the time before I bought my Prius -- there were a number of people saying that there was no way the battery pack could last and that it would cost $10K to get it replaced.  They made what sounded like good cases for their arguments, and it nearly kept me from buying the Prius.  Well, the Prius is now at 97K miles -- no problems, and by my math its saved me $9000 in gasoline over my my old Subaru Outback.  Its just hard to pick out the valid arguments from the bad ones, and for any new product there will be people who are very skeptical.


I guess one indicator might be that Enphase seems to be doing well, and that there are other companies coming out with similar products.

If you find any more data on this, I'd appreciate an email.

Gary


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## jharkin (Jul 16, 2010)

BeGreen said:
			
		

> When I put in a high quality stove, heat pump, refrigerator, washer, etc. it was not all about payback because I can't predict the future. But sure enough, my electrical and water rates went up and the increased efficiency started paying back quicker. I figured I stood a better chance of getting a return than putting the money into wall street. That was in 2006 and I've never regretted the decision.
> 
> There are other reasons besides payback for investing in alternative energy. For one, you are building future industries that are going to be a necessity going forward. There is also the increased value to the property, this is permanent infrastructure. Another reason is by installing a system, you become a spokesperson for alternative energy development. This influences your neighbors, friends and most importantly young people. They are always the most curious and appreciative when seeing adults that are willing to invest in their futures.



I agree with you on all points begreen. For the same reason Ive also done new energy star Fridge &dishwasher; in the last year and am looking into replacing my basement dehumidifier with a higher efficiency unit for same reason.

My concern about payback on PV is because I don't have the cash. I'd need to finance it and cant risk loosing the house if one of us gets laid off and the return wont offset the payments.  Its the ONLY thing holding me back.

Heck for fun I even printed out a chart and did sun surveys. My garage it turns out is a no go. The front of the house looks doable. The angle is not great (SW) but from Feb-Oct I get at least 6hr of sun. June Ive got a full 10hr.  Dec is only about 3hr, but I could stretch to 4~4.5 if I took down a couple  pine trees.


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## btuser (Jul 16, 2010)

I've found a couple calculators online and for 50% PV replacement it would cost me about $32,000.  100% would be about $64,000.  My electric bill is about $200/month.  After incentives I'd be looking at 25k for 50% of my power, and the break-even for cash is 12 years.  

To put it in perspective, $24,000 is a car loan.  A car that needs gas, insurance, inspection, registration, repairs, and detailing after somebody scratches the door.

$24,000 in the bank or on the roof.........$24,000 making $1200/yr minimum that comes to 5%......... STOP IT! I HAVE TOO MANY PROJECTS


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## GaryGary (Jul 16, 2010)

jharkin said:
			
		

> BeGreen said:
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Hi,
I don't want to seem like cheer leader for Enphase systems, but one advantage they do have is that you can start small and grow as spare cash allows.  
You can literally start with one PV panel and one microinverter for less than $1000.  You can then add panels easily as time and cash allow.
There are several places that sell these "starter" systems -- WholeSaleSolar.com is one of them.

But, I'm not sure how the rebate programs handle repeated small additions?

And (at least where we are) you would need to through the whole permitting process for the first small system -- plus installation of the net meter by the utility.  I suspect that after that you could probably get away with adding panels without further permiting-- but that may depend on where you live.

Gary

Gary


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## btuser (Jul 17, 2010)

Even I do the install myself I'm still looking at a 13 year payback, and that's if nothing breaks.   I am encouraged with the new panels.  When you start digging into it you realize there's still a lot they can do to lower the price.    Right now the expected rise in utillity rates is right about what you'd be paying for financing, so there's no gain there.


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## stacyalmando (Aug 2, 2010)

Solar Power does not sound a great deal of money, so it seems the only real reason to install the system is for environmental purposes.A solar thermal plant would need a facility to store the heat harvested in the day by its sunlight-concentrating mirrors so that the heat could be used to generate electricity at night.


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## jharkin (Aug 2, 2010)

stacyalmando said:
			
		

> Solar Power does not sound a great deal of money, so it seems the only real reason to install the system is for environmental purposes.A solar thermal plant would need a facility to store the heat harvested in the day by its sunlight-concentrating mirrors so that the heat could be used to generate electricity at night.



Might want to re-read the whole thread.  It's not just about financial payback (which has been demonstrated is now under 10yr with incentives and gets better very year). There is also the environmental benefit, sure, but possibly most important of all is its an option to get us off fossil fuels before they run out.

The storage issue is a well known problem. There is lots of research going into compressed air storage, hydro storage, flywheel, giant liquid battery banks, molten salt tank thermal storage, etc these days to address that. Or you have a very large very interconnected grid with a mix of solar, wind, hydro tidal and nuclear - where you can use the more regular hydro/nuclear to balance out the load.


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## begreen (Aug 2, 2010)

True enough that solar is going to have to get cheaper yet to compete with wind (where it is persistent). But it has come down a lot in the past decade. Depending on the state one lives in, there are some very sweet incentives. I just read last night that Louisiana has one of the strongest incentive programs out there. There is a 50% state credit in addition to the federal credit. That's a whopping 80% off the system. 

I just checked because to me, going solar seems like a no brainer in the Sunshine state. There is a $4/watt rebate on top of the fed credit. With that kind of incentive, what are you all waiting for? (fine print: this is a first come, first served pool of money. Procrastinators are out of luck.)


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## Adios Pantalones (Aug 2, 2010)

One of the issues that I see is that people with systems tied to the grid have the option to sell excess power to the grid, or "bank it" and draw out later, essentially using the grid as a battery system.  However- most of my charges seem to be line usage, tax, bent knee fee, peanut shell discharge fee, etc. etc.- so if I stay on the grid and have a partial solution, then I save very little because my charges are not nearly proportional to my power use- so you have to go all out and go off the grid I think.

On top of that, NH's incentives are pretty poor I think.

Can anyone that knows this stuff comment?


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## vvvv (Aug 2, 2010)

Germany has a different economic approach to stimulate home solar. If all had home solar balancing the grid might be difficult


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## begreen (Aug 2, 2010)

Looks like there is a NH state rebate and there are some communities offering property tax exemption too. If not your town, attend some town meetings and get the ball rolling.

http://www.dsireusa.org/incentives/incentive.cfm?Incentive_Code=NH32F&re=1&ee=1
http://www.nh.gov/oep/programs/energy/RenewableEnergyIncentives.htm


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## Adios Pantalones (Aug 2, 2010)

Wow!  I really haven't looked in a couple of years- good to see that da 603 is gettin down with the incentives


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## GaryGary (Aug 2, 2010)

Adios Pantalones said:
			
		

> One of the issues that I see is that people with systems tied to the grid have the option to sell excess power to the grid, or "bank it" and draw out later, essentially using the grid as a battery system.  However- most of my charges seem to be line usage, tax, bent knee fee, peanut shell discharge fee, etc. etc.- so if I stay on the grid and have a partial solution, then I save very little because my charges are not nearly proportional to my power use- so you have to go all out and go off the grid I think.
> 
> On top of that, NH's incentives are pretty poor I think.
> 
> Can anyone that knows this stuff comment?



Hi,
That does not seem to be the way it works here.

I don't have any options on what gets done to the PV electricity I generate.  I guess it goes to my loads first, and then any excess goes back out the the grid.
When power goes back to the grid, it takes KWHs off my NET meter -- ie it runs the meter backwards.

At the end of the month, if I have used more power than I generated, I get a bill for the net power I used.
If I generated more power than I used, this gets rolled forward to be used for future month bills.

At the end of the year if I have generated more power than I have used for the full year, then they zero out the books -- They don't cut me a check for the excess if I generate more power than I use for the year.  For most people who put in PV, there is little to no danger that they will generate more power over the year than they use and not get paid for the excess -- most people use way to much power for this to happen.
I sized my PV array (2150 watts) so that even if we do some more conserving and efficiency measures we may get down close to zero, but not below.

There are some fixed charges on my bill -- it looks to me like if I got power use down to zero my electric bill would only be about $5 a month.  This does not seem like a bad deal to me given that being on the grid has tons of advantages.  The whole net metering thing is definitely a losing proposition for the utilities unless they are getting reimbursed in some way -- they are basically paying you retail for the power you generate.

My last months total bill was $20 for 160 KWH for the month including fixed and power use dependent fees.  That compares to our bills a couple years ago that were pushing $100 before we did the conservation and PV programs.

Off-grid systems are appealing in living an independent life sort of way.  But, they cost quite a bit more to put in, there are fewer rebates available, and the cost of battery replacement just about offsets any saving in power bills.  That last one is what swayed me toward a grid-tie system --I can put in a grid-tie system and cut my power bill each month, or I can put in a off-grid system and see all my savings go toward battery pack replacement.

We are in SW Montana and use Northwestern Energy -- I'm sure things vary around the country.

The real story on the economics side is that conservation and efficiency really pay well, and grid-tie PV pays a bit if you can get good rebates.
We cut our electricity use from 1000 KWH a month to 500 KWH a month for a little over $1000 for things like CFLs, power strips, and a new fridge.
The PV array saves us about 300 KWH a month, and cost $6000 (with me doing the install).  So, for Montana, no doubt what really pays -- PV is fun, but conservation and efficiency are what really save the money.

There is a good site for looking up rebates on this page:
http://www.builditsolar.com/References/energyincentivesrs.htm
Its the DSIRE Database link.
They have state by state rundowns on rebates available.
The top link has some info on the federal rebate program.

Our local utility has an information package on putting in grid-tie PV -- yours may as well?

Our PV system:
http://www.builditsolar.com/Projects/PV/EnphasePV/Main.htm

Gary


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## denjohn (Aug 7, 2010)

GaryGary said:
			
		

> Our PV system:
> http://www.builditsolar.com/Projects/PV/EnphasePV/Main.htm


Thanks, Gary, great write up.
Edit: Incredible write up.


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## pyper (Aug 7, 2010)

jebatty said:
			
		

> Average home kwh use in Germany, Australia and most other developed countries is around 450-500 kwh, or about 1/2 of US average. Which brings to mind the thought of setting 500 kwh/month as our new goal for electric usage.



If we had Germany's weather it would be a lot easier to have their energy usage.

They have mild winters and mild summers. When I lived in Germany we didn't have AC and didn't need it, and 30F was about as cold as it got.

It's not a coincidence that the dramatic population growth in the South began when residential air conditioning became practical.


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## jharkin (Aug 16, 2010)

This popped up on the oil drum today...
200w ($799) and 1kw ($3995) do it yourself grid tie systems that you would buy at the box and just plug in to an outlet.

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/16/for-lean-budgets-a-plug-and-play-solar-system/
http://www.clariantechnologies.com/


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## Jags (Aug 16, 2010)

jharkin said:
			
		

> This popped up on the oil drum today...
> 200w ($799) and 1kw ($3995) do it yourself grid tie systems that you would buy at the box and just plug in to an outlet.
> 
> http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/16/for-lean-budgets-a-plug-and-play-solar-system/
> http://www.clariantechnologies.com/



I have looked at those before.  They have a neat concept (plug and play), but 1000W for 4000 bucks is no bargain.


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## peakbagger (Aug 16, 2010)

I got my electirc bill today from PSNH (NH's biggest utility), they have graph on the left side of the bill comparing last years usage with this years usage. According to the graph I used 324 kWh per day for end of July and early August the same as last year!

They really dont have a good system in place for grid tied solar as in the same envelope is a credit for kW's as I generated more power than I used. I expect that when the computer sees neagative power usuage the default is 324 KW/day (hecks its only 9.7 megaWatt hours a month)


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## benjamin (Aug 17, 2010)

GaryGary said:
			
		

> The whole net metering thing is definitely a losing proposition for the utilities unless they are getting reimbursed in some way -- they are basically paying you retail for the power you generate.
> Gary



I'm generally not in favor of net metering, but at least with PV it might not be that bad for the utilities.  Retail electricity for a homeowner is usually much cheaper than peak power (retail price) and may be close to the wholesale price for peak power.  Also the output is relatively stable and predictable, unlike wind power which must be a hassle for any utility that has to accept it under net metering.


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## DaveH9 (Sep 19, 2010)

Solar hot water is expanding in a big way. Better return in most cases than PV. I put in my SHW system in 91, it had a very quick payback, around 5 years. I turn off my oil fired boiler in May and on in Oct.  CT has a rebate for Solar Hot Water, other states do also. Then there is a 30% fed tax credit.

 PV prices have dropped significantly in the past 2 years. The payback is different by areas, depending on electric rates and rate structure , rebates, and tax credits. There is a 30% fed tax credit.

I work in the solar industry, serving CT for PV and SHW.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 21, 2010)

Solar is starting to look good utilities keep raising prices and the Govt Keeps jacking up taxes. My Electric bill taxes is around 15% Very high considering state sales tax is only 6 %.


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