# Forecast: Big snow in Eastern U.S. cities



## BrianK (Aug 15, 2012)

Forecast: Big snow in Eastern U.S. cities
by Staff Writers
State College, Pa.
(UPI) Aug 15, 2012







After a 2011-2012 winter that saw little snow, the mid-Atlantic and southern New England states will get a snow dump this winter, forecasters say.

Above-normal snowfall during winter 2012-2013 is forecast for the major I-95 cities including New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, AccuWeather.com reported Wednesday.

"The I-95 cities could get hit pretty good," forecaster Paul Pastelok said. "It's a matter of getting the cold to phase in with the huge systems that we are going to see coming out of the southern branch of the jet stream this year."

The presence -- and strength -- of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean are used to project how active the winter season will be, forecasters said.

El Nino warming of ocean water and the air above it causes weather patterns to change globally, and El Nino winters feature a strong southern branch of the jet stream across the United States, AccuWeather.com said.

When the strong southern jet stream phases with the northern branch of the jet stream, meteorologists said, big storms can hit the east coast.


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## fishingpol (Aug 15, 2012)

Bring it!

I just read that article.  They base it on past weather patterns and the El Nino/ La Nina transition.  It'll make up for what we did not get last year if it holds true.


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## Thistle (Aug 15, 2012)

I hope the midwest gets above normal rainfall in the next 2-3 months then heavy snow for December & January.Still almost 5 inches down for the year,over 3 since June alone.

I'm ready either way.Barely burned 2 cord last winter,normal is 3 to 4.


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## BrotherBart (Aug 15, 2012)

Accuweather has blown every forecast since Joe Bastardi left. I hope this one maintains their streak.


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## BrotherBart (Aug 15, 2012)

Just checked. Even Joe is looking for it to be really cold. He is like the professional wrestler of weather.


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## Dix (Aug 15, 2012)

*grumbles*

Don't need another winter like the one before last.

Ordered more firewood yesterday.

Got a bunch (as in a cord or two to be split, need 'um splitter).

*grumbles again*


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## BrowningBAR (Aug 15, 2012)

Well, guess it will be a good test for this fully operational stone Deathstar.


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## Dix (Aug 15, 2012)

I'll be the satellite Death Star, BBar.

Should be fun  *not*


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## infinitymike (Aug 16, 2012)

AAAAHHHHH,

Hope its not true. 
I have to work outside all year long and I dread the snow and ice.
Wouldn't mind it if I was retired or independently wealthy


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## Jack Straw (Aug 16, 2012)

Bring it on.....I love winter! It was nice last year not to have 2' of snow in the woods though, made it real easy getting wood out, only rode the snowmobiles once...not so good.


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## peakbagger (Aug 16, 2012)

Heck the years with lots of snow in the big cities along the east coast usually means less than average snow for my area which is 100 miles away from the coast with the white moutains acting as shield.

I try to plan for the worst and hope for the best.


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## firefighterjake (Aug 16, 2012)

Here's to hoping for lots of snow here in Maine . . . lack of snow and cold meant very little snowmobiling which hurt dealers, clubs and businesses that rely on sledders gassing up, buying gear, eating, etc. . . . plus I had to trailer the sled for the three times I did manage to go riding.

Factor in other businesses that rely on the snow -- ski resorts, places that sell winter outdoor gear (skis, snow shoes, etc.), snow plow businesses, auto body shops, sand and salt dealers, etc. . . . and you can see pretty quickly that there are many who truly like a snowy winter just for the economics of things.

Finally . . . one word. Bugs. While I will admittedly like a break from the extreme cold and snow and found last winter easier in terms of not having to rake the roof as often or plow the driveway . . . I have noticed that in the past few years of mild winters it seems as though ticks and bugs are really doing well . . . especially since I never saw a tick around here until a few years ago (well other than the occasional tick on the cat.)


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## lukem (Aug 16, 2012)

Thistle said:


> I hope the midwest gets above normal rainfall in the next 2-3 months then heavy snow for December & January.Still almost 5 inches down for the year,over 3 since June alone.
> 
> I'm ready either way.Barely burned 2 cord last winter,normal is 3 to 4.



I think we are 15 - 16 inches behind for the year and that was several weeks ago..could be more now.  It can precipitate all it wants.  Give me a good excuse to get some indoor projects done.


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## DAKSY (Aug 16, 2012)

Bring it. Last winter's warmth was an aberration. Much as I'd like to be riding my Geezer Glide all year, winter is supposed to be cold & snowy. If it isn't, great. If it is, so what? 100+ inches of snow from November to April is nothing new round these parts.


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## BrotherBart (Aug 16, 2012)

Yeah but not spending the county and state snow removal budgets doesn't break my heart a bit.


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## Jack Straw (Aug 16, 2012)

We had so little snow last year that the county was able to cut brush in the ditches most of the winter, thanks to FEMA.


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## DAKSY (Aug 16, 2012)

Jack Straw said:


> We had so little snow last year that the county was able to cut brush in the ditches most of the winter, thanks to FEMA.


 
I was down your way in March/April on a Patriot Guard Rider mission & I couldn't believe the depth of the rocksalt at the intersections & corners.  1 - 2" deep in spots... We had to ride carefully to avoid hitting that crap & dropping the bikes. Reports up here from guys who work NYSDOT, were that they had to drop "X" number of tons of RS per mile in order to keep their supplies in a "re-order" stage. If they didn't use what they ordered LAST year, their budget would be cut for THIS year. Freekin NYS...


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## Jack Straw (Aug 16, 2012)

DAKSY said:


> I was down your way in March/April on a Patriot Guard Rider mission & I couldn't believe the depth of the rocksalt at the intersections & corners. 1 - 2" deep in spots... We had to ride carefully to avoid hitting that crap & dropping the bikes. Reports up here from guys who work NYSDOT, were that they had to drop "X" number of tons of RS per mile in order to keep their supplies in a "re-order" stage. If they didn't use what they ordered LAST year, their budget would be cut for THIS year. Freekin NYS...


 
That sounds about right, I saw the state guys plowing bare pavement.


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## Grisu (Aug 16, 2012)

DAKSY said:


> I was down your way in March/April on a Patriot Guard Rider mission & I couldn't believe the depth of the rocksalt at the intersections & corners. 1 - 2" deep in spots... We had to ride carefully to avoid hitting that crap & dropping the bikes. Reports up here from guys who work NYSDOT, were that they had to drop "X" number of tons of RS per mile in order to keep their supplies in a "re-order" stage. If they didn't use what they ordered LAST year, their budget would be cut for THIS year. Freekin NYS...


 
So what? Does Rocksalt go bad over the summer? If not their budget should be lower this year because they would have plenty of leftover from last year. That just hurts...


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## MishMouse (Aug 16, 2012)

Hope we do not get a bad winter.
Due to illnesses in my wife's family along with a hot summer I really haven't had that much time to replace the firewood supply.
I have close to 5 cords of seasoned stuff waiting to go, but it the winter drags on or starts early I will be in trouble come March.
Hopefully winter comes a little late this year.
If it is like that winter we had a couple of years ago that burning from August - June is for the birds.


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## Flatbedford (Aug 16, 2012)

I'll believe it when I see it. Somebody should remember to reopen this thread in January.


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## BrotherBart (Aug 16, 2012)

DAKSY said:


> I was down your way in March/April on a Patriot Guard Rider mission & I couldn't believe the depth of the rocksalt at the intersections & corners. 1 - 2" deep in spots... We had to ride carefully to avoid hitting that crap & dropping the bikes. Reports up here from guys who work NYSDOT, were that they had to drop "X" number of tons of RS per mile in order to keep their supplies in a "re-order" stage. If they didn't use what they ordered LAST year, their budget would be cut for THIS year. Freekin NYS...


 
Used to work for a county government. If we had an easy winter and my department got hit with a need for some quick funding I got in the car and headed over to buy lunch for the General Services Director that had the road budget. He was sitting on a pile of unused dough. He hated that I knew that.

A regular Boss Hogg in the county.


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## MasterMech (Aug 21, 2012)

BrotherBart said:


> Yeah but not spending the county and state snow removal budgets doesn't break my heart a bit.


 
But then they do things like this.....



DAKSY said:


> I was down your way in March/April on a Patriot Guard Rider mission & I couldn't believe the depth of the rocksalt at the intersections & corners. 1 - 2" deep in spots... We had to ride carefully to avoid hitting that crap & dropping the bikes. Reports up here from guys who work NYSDOT, were that they had to drop "X" number of tons of RS per mile in order to keep their supplies in a "re-order" stage. If they didn't use what they ordered LAST year, their budget would be cut for THIS year. Freekin NYS...


 
They will spend those budgets.  No matter what.  Even if they have to buy snow.


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## n3pro (Aug 21, 2012)

I have to drive for my job, I hope they are wrong but as the thread last winter said - we had it too good for too long paybacks are a @#$%^.  We are overdue for a doosy.  Guess I'll be happy I upgraded from the Napoleon to the Englander!


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## Flatbedford (Aug 22, 2012)

I don't remember ever hearing a long term winter forecast for an unusually warm winter. Nobody would buy skis or winter coats or all wheel drive cars. I don't pay much attention to any weather forecast more than 5 days out, and won't take a several month out forecast seriously.


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## muncybob (Aug 22, 2012)

I'm with ya Steve. It seems general temperature forecasts can be in the ballpark but other than that it's really just topics of conversation. How accurate were these people for last year's winter? I looked in the Farmers Almanac for what they predicted for last month(which was the hottest July on record for us) and they had shown a below average overall temp!

With that said, I have been noticing some signs from Mother Nature....acorns seems to be dropping a bit early, goldenrod came out a few weeks sooner than usual and many of the birds are flocking together and doing their pre-migration flights each evening which normally doesn't happen until 1st week of September.....hhhhmmmmmmm. Will have to pay attention to the wooly bear catapillars next month.


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## Flatbedford (Aug 22, 2012)

The trees _are_ dropping a few leaves at my place.


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## greg13 (Aug 22, 2012)

Let's face it, the odds of forecasting 4 months out are about the same as they are at a table in any gambling house. They have a hard enough time doing 7 days.
We'll just take what comes at us.


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## ScotO (Aug 22, 2012)

Jack Straw said:


> Bring it on.....I love winter! It was nice last year not to have 2' of snow in the woods though, made it real easy getting wood out, only rode the snowmobiles once...not so good.


 I'm with ya Jack.  My body and soul were MADE for snow.  I hope we get at least a foot per week from the first week of December til the end of January.  With a melt-off or two somewhere in the mix.  I got cheated last winter, enough to make me run the chit out of the old Chaparral in only 4" of snow (that was the most we had on the ground at one time all winter last year!) the one or two weekends that we had it.  I would move to Alaska if my wife would commit.  That's not gonna happen....


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## Jack Straw (Aug 22, 2012)

Scotty Overkill said:


> I'm with ya Jack.  My body and soul were MADE for snow.  I hope we get at least a foot per week from the first week of December til the end of January.  With a melt-off or two somewhere in the mix.  I got cheated last winter, enough to make me run the chit out of the old Chaparral in only 4" of snow (that was the most we had on the ground at one time all winter last year!) the one or two weekends that we had it.  I would move to Alaska if my wife would commit.  That's not gonna happen....



How are the trails in Pennsylvania? We have great trails around here. We live a 1/4 mile from a main state corridor trail.


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## ScotO (Aug 22, 2012)

Jack Straw said:


> How are the trails in Pennsylvania? We have great trails around here. We live a 1/4 mile from a main state corridor trail.


 we have trails, and some good ones at that, but a lot of them are trailer distance away.  So I mainly run on the farm and "wherever we can find a spot that isn't on private land"....I wanna make it up your way, hopefully this winter, to do an overnighter.  Rent a cabin along one of those snow belt trails.....


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## Lewiston (Aug 22, 2012)

Thistle said:


> I hope the midwest gets above normal rainfall in the next 2-3 months then heavy snow for December & January.Still almost 5 inches down for the year,over 3 since June alone.
> 
> I'm ready either way.Barely burned 2 cord last winter,normal is 3 to 4.


I love winter, cold, and snow!  Nothing gets the heart pumping like Grouse or Pheasants exploding out of a snow drift.  The Farmer's Almanac is calling for snow at the end of Oct for the Upper Midwest.


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## MasterMech (Aug 22, 2012)

Scotty Overkill said:


> ... I would move to Alaska if my wife would commit. That's not gonna happen....


 
You and me both.


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## Lewiston (Aug 23, 2012)

Scotty Overkill said:


> I would move to Alaska if my wife would commit. That's not gonna happen....


 


MasterMech said:


> You and me both.


Add me to the list.  We've talked about it but that's the extent of it.


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## Jack Straw (Aug 23, 2012)

Lewiston said:


> Add me to the list.  We've talked about it but that's the extent of it.



Most people dream of retiring and moving south, I dream of moving north when I retire..I hate hot, humid weather!


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## Jack Straw (Aug 23, 2012)

Scotty Overkill said:


> we have trails, and some good ones at that, but a lot of them are trailer distance away.  So I mainly run on the farm and "wherever we can find a spot that isn't on private land"....I wanna make it up your way, hopefully this winter, to do an overnighter.  Rent a cabin along one of those snow belt trails.....



What do you have to do as far as registrations if you come to New York?...I looked into going to Vermont and it is pricey.


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## ScotO (Aug 23, 2012)

I





Jack Straw said:


> What do you have to do as far as registrations if you come to New York?...I looked into going to Vermont and it is pricey.


I'm not sure yet Jack.  I have to look into it yet.


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## firefighterjake (Aug 23, 2012)

Scotty Overkill said:


> . . . I would move to Alaska if my wife would commit. That's not gonna happen....


 
You never know . . . for years my wife was talking about wanting to move south to North Carolina or even further when we can retire. This year she thought over the idea of actually moving further north to The County which pleases me to no end . . . the only caveat is that she says she would like an indoor swimming pool which I am more than happy to do (do you suppose a kiddie pool set up in a garage would count?  )


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## Flatbedford (Aug 23, 2012)

Jack Straw said:


> Most people dream of retiring and moving south, I dream of moving north when I retire..I hate hot, humid weather!


 
I hear you loud and clear! As I get older, I am getting less and less tolerant of the heat and humidity. Mrs. Flatbedford is still thinking of a Southern retirement, but we have time yet and I'll keep working on her to think North.


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## Jack Straw (Aug 23, 2012)

Flatbedford said:


> I hear you loud and clear! As I get older, I am getting less and less tolerant of the heat and humidity. Mrs. Flatbedford is still thinking of a Southern retirement, but we have time yet and I'll keep working on her to think North.


 

I would like to spend the summers up north and the winters here


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## Flatbedford (Aug 23, 2012)

Sounds good.


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## granpajohn (Aug 23, 2012)

I admit I'm fueling the fire, but....
...this is from FirstHandWeather.com (made up of student/youth meteorologists)
Item: Their 2011 winter outlook busted. Track record is everything.


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## jharkin (Aug 23, 2012)

Brownings comment is priceless... need to save that one.

I'm ready.  Largest, driest wood supply yet, finally got the stove rythym down, house insulation and such all updated about as good as its ever going to get.

Looking forward to some decent snow... just not a repeat of 2010 please. My yard looked like western front in winter.. all the trenches I had to dig just to make walking paths and get to the spots where I could rake off the roof.


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## Lewiston (Aug 24, 2012)

Jack Straw said:


> Most people dream of retiring and moving south, I dream of moving north when I retire..I hate hot, humid weather!


Sounds good to me.  Rarely do we go South.  I just hate wasting perfectly good SD ammo on over-sized bugs, snakes, etc.


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## PapaDave (Aug 25, 2012)

The map granpa put up was as wrong as the rest of 'em. I remember someone putting one on here showing us in the middle of a big blue bubble of cold and snow for last year.
We all know how that went.
The weather forecast for us changes every time I look at it (or seems to). You'd think I'd learn.


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## BrotherBart (Aug 25, 2012)

I ain't worried about winter. But the last hurricane that tracked like Issac came up North as a storm and launched a tornado that touched down in my front yard in 2004. I don't need that chit again. Blew down 36 trees on the place. One 18 feet from the house. The stump.


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## greg13 (Aug 26, 2012)

granpajohn said:


> I admit I'm fueling the fire, but....
> ...this is from FirstHandWeather.com (made up of student/youth meteorologists)
> Item: Their 2011 winter outlook busted. Track record is everything.


 
Does anyone have LAST year's map?


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## PapaDave (Aug 26, 2012)

Whoa, I guess I missed the part where it says that's '12-'13 highlights.
Doesn't really matter much. I'm gooder to go no matter what.


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## ScotO (Aug 26, 2012)

I sure am liking that dark purple on that map.......I hope they got it right this year, I want snow, and LOTS OF IT!!


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## MasterMech (Aug 26, 2012)

Scotty Overkill said:


> I sure am liking that dark purple on that map.......I hope they got it right this year, I want snow, and LOTS OF IT!!


 Here Here!!


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## granpajohn (Aug 27, 2012)

Heh...told ya I was fueling the fire 

This link give FHW's (busted) 2011 outlook. They weren't much more wrong than most others:
http://firsthandweather.com/blog/all-posts/5-myths-years-20112012-winter-forecast
One thing to note: they seem to have hit TX and the southwest pretty close. And this was after one of the coldest winters in that region (2009-10). Especially deep into Mexico.
But the rest of the map is about as wrong as it can be.






\


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## Jack Straw (Aug 27, 2012)

I predict that it will slowly get colder the next 5 months with some snow and rain and then it will slowly warm back up with more snow and rain.


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## PapaDave (Aug 27, 2012)

Jack's been training with the "Hippy Dippy Weatherman".


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## firefighterjake (Aug 27, 2012)

Scotty Overkill said:


> I sure am liking that dark purple on that map.......I hope they got it right this year, I want snow, and LOTS OF IT!!


 
You and me both . . . I only rode the sled three times last year and I had to trailer all three times.


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## amateur cutter (Aug 27, 2012)

Scotty Overkill said:


> I'm with ya Jack. My body and soul were MADE for snow. I hope we get at least a foot per week from the first week of December til the end of January. With a melt-off or two somewhere in the mix. I got cheated last winter, enough to make me run the chit out of the old Chaparral in only 4" of snow (that was the most we had on the ground at one time all winter last year!) the one or two weekends that we had it. I would move to Alaska if my wife would commit. That's not gonna happen....


 
My wife tried committing to the Alaska move too......... SHE TRIED HAVING ME COMMITTED!  Oh well, maybe next summer wont be so miserable. A C


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## thewoodlands (Aug 27, 2012)

Farmer's Almanac - Narrow orange band in the middle of the woolly bear caterpillar warns of heavy snow; fat and fuzzy caterpillars presage bitter cold.

From what I saw yesterday next to the brook (fat and fuzzy caterpillars) it will be a bitter cold winter for us. Never had the camera but did find two nice holes over 3.5 feet deep which cooled us off nice.

zap


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