# Whence Toyota?!?



## woodgeek (Sep 22, 2022)

I've been noting around here for several year the clear anti-EV bias from Toyota.  Historically, they looked at lithium powered EVs in the mid-2000s and decided they were not a viable technology.  They have been airing ads that BEVs are hard to charge... just get a Prius bc you don't have to plug it in!  And now they are billing the Prius (HEV) as a 'self charging EV!'  LOL.

Among the legacy automakers, Toyota is the least committed to EVs and has only recently launched their first BEV (except for joint venture concepts with others like Tesla).  And it is being sold in tiny numbers at a high price.  And I note that Japan is several years behind the US in EV adoption rate.

This video talks about investigative work into Toyota's global lobbying and disinformation.  The report comes from Greenpeace, which is not my favorite source for such things... but I thought the video was eye-opening.  It says that Toyota's global lobbying effort against EVs rivals that of the oil majors.

Wow.

And ofc Toyota is a champion for both Hydrogen vehicles and waiting for the fabled solid-state battery... kinda changes how I look at their commitment to such technology, and where it comes from.  Kinda like the Oil Majors saying... we need to fund lots more Research into renewable energy (bc existing solar and wind tech are not good enough) rather than Development of existing solar and wind.  And then getting 'futurist' Bill Gates to shill that story for them!


----------



## blades (Sep 22, 2022)

only2problems hydrogen , very exposive , moleclues so small hard to contain pass through a steel tank. hydrogen is what toyota has been working with. Hindenberg comes to mind. course with what has been going on in the auto world whats another flaming auto destruc vehicle.


----------



## stoveliker (Sep 22, 2022)

tanks with explosive contents have been standard as transportation energy supply...
In some countries in Europe even lpg, which is a gas (rather than a liquid) too. No problem at all.

Hydrogen is tougher to contain indeed.


----------



## begreen (Sep 22, 2022)

Some background info, from a Japanese citizen. 





						How Toyota sneakily spreads anti-EV propaganda in Japan
					

Toyota is leading Japan towards gasoline hybrids and away from EVs - and even sending propaganda to school children to further their efforts.




					electrek.co
				




Seems like Japanese car makers are painting themselves into a corner. They will lose sales in many countries unless they do an about-face on EVs.


----------



## stoveliker (Sep 22, 2022)

They did not (don't) like it, but they'll be forced to adapt, or wither away. Unfortunately, because their quality is good.


----------



## woodgeek (Sep 23, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> They did not (don't) like it, but they'll be forced to adapt, or wither away. Unfortunately, because their quality is good.



I know lots of people love their Toyota's but we got two lemons in a row that needed tons of expensive repairs over the years.

That aside, who is 'king of the mountain' on industrial goods tends to cycle over decades of time.  Whoever has the newest factory, tends to have the newest and cheapest product.  Steel industries have shifted back and forth between countries over the last 150 years.

The Japanese car companies will hold their ground for a little while selling to their domestic market, but then have a hard time playing catch up.  I personally think most larger legacy makers will survive electrification (just guessing really), but some might go away (or get bought up by rivals).

Right now the Chinese EV makers are global leaders (and Tesla is playing catch up in China) on cost and volume... but their products are mostly lower range vehicles that would not sell well in the US, even if there were not protectionist policies (China tariffs) in place.  But they are selling well in the EU, a market that is also ahead of the US in EV adoption.

So, BYD could be selling easily be more vehicles globally than Toyota in 2030, since the projected EV/ICE 50:50 tipping point for China/EU is in 2025.

The Koreans are behind China in EV adoption, but way ahead of the Japanese (Korea being on a par with the US that way).  The IRA is screwing them on rebates, but there are no tariffs in place, so they can probably play at the high end (and/or build assembly plants here).  They have the best non-Tesla EVs on sale in the US these days, with >150 kW DCFC and nice features and styling.  So if the US keeps the Chinese makers out of our markets, the Koreans could do quite well here, eventually displacing the Japanese brands for US buyers.  But we won't hit 50:50 until closer to 2030.

So maybe we see one of the Korean companies buying up Toyota's assets and badge 10 years from now.


----------



## EbS-P (Sep 23, 2022)

I think if Toyota gets their hybrid full size truck/large SUV (remember they had a v8 4Runner for a while) tech right and make them PHEV they will keep meaningful market share in the US for the next 10 years.     I drove the hybrid Sienna and was in impressed coming from a a Tesla and an 10 year old Honda.  35 mpg on the interstate no AC.  Ehhh

But if you have a 380+ HP and 400 torques hybrid system and the competition is all BEV there is a center demographic that will avoid the BEV for no other reason than where they are on the political spectrum.


----------



## GrumpyDad (Sep 23, 2022)

I read alot, and what I see is Toyota vs the world. Beta vs VHS.  Maybe.
EV's arent a unicorn that get their energy storage and energy via thin air.  It's a very destructive, pollution heavy process.
MOST electrical grids run primarily on fossil fuels. EV's need fossil fuels to fuel up.  
For this, Toyota is actually correct in their wager to some regard.  Comparing like sized Prius vs a liked sized EV.
Here's an article to check out, not very scientific but there are also studies you can dig into.  https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/02/climate/electric-vehicles-environment.html


----------



## NoGoodAtScreenNames (Sep 23, 2022)

The last few cars that we’ve bought have all been Toyotas. I think saying that Toyota is as bad as big oil in terms of misinformation is a bit much, but at the same time their poor record is both disappointing and tbh surprising since they normalized the idea of (partially) electrified cars with the Prius long before other mfrs. 

Their miscalculations have been due I think to believing that batteries will be a scarce resource and that drivers will have range anxiety. They over estimated the scarcity and under estimated peoples willingness to deal with range anxiety. 

They have argued that the best approach is to get as many vehicles partially electrified to reduce the amount of fossil fuels used to power the car. However, putting a small battery in a hybrid car only allows you to capture energy from regen braking. So while selling hybrids reduces the use of fossil fuels it does not eliminate our dependence on them since that is the only power source. 

PHEVs could have been their sweet spot to transition. In 2020 we got a Prius Prime we drive that as an EV for about 85% of our miles. But the range is only about 25 miles. But those 25 miles can include renewables, particularly our rooftop solar. Imagine a plug in Prius or a Prius / Camry that could get 75 miles. That would have been true to their strategy of spreading the scarce batteries around while reducing fossil fuel dependency. 

I’m now driving the RAV4 Prime which is rated for 40 miles EV but have been getting around 55 through the summer. But the RAV4 would be expensive without the tax credits which were going to phase out soon anyway and are eliminated under the IRA I’m not sure how that model continues. In Toyotas ads they all but ignore their PHEVs while hyping the hybrids. 

Their first true EV looks incredibly boring. That’s not necessarily a bad thing if it also wasn’t expensive. The Leaf, Bolt, Kona EV, Niro EV  already are out there for those that want an EV at a lower price point than the luxury EVs that get more attention. 

The RAV4 prime is my range anxiety car for the next decade or so. The next time we need to buy a car it will almost certainly be a full EV and unfortunately that may very well mean a non-Toyota.


----------



## woodgeek (Sep 24, 2022)

begreen said:


> Some background info, from a Japanese citizen.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Wow.  That is an amazing article.

Its like a textbook case of how large incumbent industries get disrupted.  Denial that the new technology can work or be competitive (based upon current performance, disregarding the fact that new tech gets cheaper and better over time).


----------



## woodgeek (Sep 24, 2022)

GrumpyDad said:


> I read alot, and what I see is Toyota vs the world. Beta vs VHS.  Maybe.
> EV's arent a unicorn that get their energy storage and energy via thin air.  It's a very destructive, pollution heavy process.
> MOST electrical grids run primarily on fossil fuels. EV's need fossil fuels to fuel up.
> For this, Toyota is actually correct in their wager to some regard.  Comparing like sized Prius vs a liked sized EV.
> Here's an article to check out, not very scientific but there are also studies you can dig into.  https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/02/climate/electric-vehicles-environment.html



Huh.  I read the article and it says that EVs emit much lower lifetime CO2 per mile than ICE cars.  With numbers.  Which is true.

It then says, in one section, without numbers, that an unspecified BEV might do slightly worse than a Prius, if charged on a 'coal heavy grid in the midwest'.

So what is the takeaway from the above?  That EVs don't reduce emissions and won't in the future?  Of course not.  Its just 'both sides' journalism at its finest.

As you say, there are a zillion scientific studies, from reliable places like the NAS, over the last ten years, analyzing this stuff.  And they say that BEVs emit about a third of the lifetime CO2 of a comparable ICE vehicle on a current US average grid, and 50% less than a HEV like a Prius.

How?  Bc the EV drivetrain is 80% efficient, versus the ICE drivetrain being 25% efficient.  And while the current US grid IS majority fossil, it is 40% emission free (20% wind+hydro+solar and 20% nukes), 40% gas and 20% coal.  In PA BTW, the grid is 50% gas and 40% nukes, and slightly lower carbon than the US grid average.

Talking about HEVs like the Prius here is IMO a distraction.  They are NOT a commercial success in the US.  Prius sales in the US are flat to downward for the last decade.   I have driven them, and thought the driving dynamics simply sucked.  That was by design... forcing you to hypermile.

I'd rather get a long range BEV for less money (after rebates) and get a sporty, fun to drive car, with lower maintenance and lower emissions.  Along with most US car buyers making the same comparison (shopping for green cars).  That is, BEV sales passed strong hybrid sedan sales years ago.  Strong HEV sedans like the Prius are DONE in the US.

And ofc the US grid is getting greener all the time.  Since cars are going to be in use for 15-20 years, the calculation should be based upon what the grid looks like not now, but in 10 years.  But that is a whole other projection.


----------



## SpaceBus (Sep 24, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> Wow.  That is an amazing article.
> 
> Its like a textbook case of how large incumbent industries get disrupted.  Denial that the new technology can work or be competitive (based upon current performance, disregarding the fact that new tech gets cheaper and better over time).


The whole situation reminds me a lot of GM balking when the CAA was introduced forcing them to use emissions equipment. They claimed it couldn't be done, and in comes Honda and Toyota to steal their lunch.


----------



## begreen (Sep 24, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> Wow.  That is an amazing article.
> 
> Its like a textbook case of how large incumbent industries get disrupted.  Denial that the new technology can work or be competitive (based upon current performance, disregarding the fact that new tech gets cheaper and better over time).


Yes, I thought it was an informative perspective I hadn't considered. It sounds like they are deeply entrenched in their supply chain and admirably want to keep jobs, but disruption is inevitable, they need to get rolling.


----------



## begreen (Sep 24, 2022)

SpaceBus said:


> The whole situation reminds me a lot of GM balking when the CAA was introduced forcing them to use emissions equipment. They claimed it couldn't be done, and in comes Honda and Toyota to steal their lunch.


I remember that well. Our first new car was a 1981 Honda Accord. It was a great car and outlasted my mom's two bombs, 1 Ford (Mercury) and 1 GM (Olds). The only issue we had with it was the brakes needed replacement every 30,000 miles.


----------



## EbS-P (Sep 24, 2022)

The whole supply chain is showing cracks in management.  Like Ford not having enough blue ovals.  Surly they just aren’t parking another wise sellable car just because it doesn’t have a badge?  

I have heard one interpretation. Toyota is just sandbagging and is developing BEVs but in secret.  I don’t know.

My experience in a rented hybrid Toyota Sienna was blah.  It’s like we have a screen but you know let’s make everything a button. I couldn’t even count the number of buttons on the steering wheel while driving  as my eyes would have been off the road too long. 

As person that picks up new tech quickly. Nothing felt intuitive.  I’ve never felt that way in car newer than what I regularly drive.  Maybe I’m becoming Tesla minimalist.    My 2012 RAV4 and 2011 odyssey both have better functionality. Some of the. It tons were even to far to reach without changing my seating position.


----------



## SpaceBus (Sep 24, 2022)

begreen said:


> I remember that well. Our first new car was a 1981 Honda Accord. It was a great car and outlasted my mom's two bombs, 1 Ford (Mercury) and 1 GM (Olds). The only issue we had with it was the brakes needed replacement every 30,000 miles.


It looks like GM and Ford are getting them back and brought competent BEVs to market before Honda and Toyota. I just hope Mazda can stay relevant.


----------



## sloeffle (Sep 25, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> I know lots of people love their Toyota's but we got two lemons in a row that needed tons of expensive repairs over the years.


I have a 2016 Toyota Avalon that is having some weird transmission issue going on right now. I've never had a car have transmission issues with 90k miles on it where regular maintenance has been done. It will definitely be my last one.

I have a friend who likes to poke his Tesla fanboi friends on Facebook. Him and I were talking about Tesla and he sent me over some very informative information from BoA.







Like others I'm surprised that Toyota has put all of their eggs into the hybrid basket vs the electric basket. I wasn't expecting GM to have such a high percentage of electric vehicle either. Hopefully Mary and company can pull it off, I'd like to see Elon get knocked off his pedestal. 

Like @SpaceBus said, I hope Mazda comes up some kind of strategy to compete. A friend of mine has a CX-9 and says it's the best vehicle he's ever owned. They will be on my radar for my next vehicle for sure. They just released some new diesel vehicles to the U.S., that seems to be about 10 - 15 years too late.

Link to the full PDF from BoA: https://s3-prod.autonews.com/2021-06/BofA Global Research Car Wars.pdf


----------



## SpaceBus (Sep 25, 2022)

sloeffle said:


> I have a 2016 Toyota Avalon that is having some weird transmission issue going on right now. I've never had a car have transmission issues with 90k miles on it where regular maintenance has been done. It will definitely be my last one.
> 
> I have a friend who likes to poke his Tesla fanboi friends on Facebook. Him and I were talking about Tesla and he sent me over some very informative information from BoA.
> 
> ...


The Mazda diesels, in the US, were too little too late. For many years the Mazda diesel engineering team could not figure out how VW and others were able to sell diesel engines in the US without some kind of cheating, turns out they were right. Once VW and the rest had to re-tune their engines to advertised specs, the Mazda diesels were competitive. The really high compression "Skyactiv" gas engines were cool, and for a time Mazda was working on a compression ignition gas engine, but I think they have quietly started focusing on BEVs. The MX-30 looks like a great car, but the advertised range is not that competitive with other BEVs, especially those from GM. Hopefully in typical Mazda fashion the engineers have provided worst case numbers and real world range is higher.


----------



## BrownT10 (Sep 26, 2022)

Change the oil, burn the tires up and suck the fuel. Rinse and repeat, I love it. Looks like I still have plenty of my life to be able to do that. Will have to change eventually I suppose.


----------



## Riverbanks (Sep 26, 2022)

Burn the tires up, lol, with traction control, I can't barely spin a tire. Maybe if I stomp on the brakes


----------



## SpaceBus (Sep 28, 2022)

BrownT10 said:


> Change the oil, burn the tires up and suck the fuel. Rinse and repeat, I love it. Looks like I still have plenty of my life to be able to do that. Will have to change eventually I suppose.


While I do also love fast cars, fire breathing engines, and tire smoke, I have to recognize how bad for our planet that stuff is. I'm no longer a member of the fast car club, but I'm OK with it. Basically if I were to have continued in my ways it would be the same as saying my whims are more important than clean air for other people. I can't in good conscience continue with destructive behaviors because they give me a few  endorphins at the expense of those I care about, and those I don't even know.


----------



## BrownT10 (Sep 28, 2022)

SpaceBus said:


> While I do also love fast cars, fire breathing engines, and tire smoke, I have to recognize how bad for our planet that stuff is. I'm no longer a member of the fast car club, but I'm OK with it. Basically if I were to have continued in my ways it would be the same as saying my whims are more important than clean air for other people. I can't in good conscience continue with destructive behaviors because they give me a few  endorphins at the expense of those I care about, and those I don't even know.


Ok, suit yourself. There has to be some kind of balance with a combination of energy sources. The ideas that EV will solve global issues is ignorant in my opinion. It seems everything nowadays has to be extreme one way or the other. Unfortunately we are lead by inept fools that are only concerned for themselves and their agendas. EV vehicles will be a positive step someday, but we will find out in the future they aren't effective and as clean as we thought. There are many questions that need to be answered before we arrive at the conclusion it is the answer.


----------



## EbS-P (Sep 28, 2022)

BrownT10 said:


> Ok, suit yourself. There has to be some kind of balance with a combination of energy sources. The ideas that EV will solve global issues is ignorant in my opinion. It seems everything nowadays has to be extreme one way or the other. Unfortunately we are lead by inept fools that are only concerned for themselves and their agendas. EV vehicles will be a positive step someday, but we will find out in the future they aren't effective and as clean as we thought. There are many questions that need to be answered before we arrive at the conclusion it is the answer.


California will ban new ICE sales.   This is not extreme.  Some have followed many more will.   I have not read anywhere BEVs are the single solution.   Looks EVs are a positive step 5 years ago and now the steps are getting bigger and faster.  They are part of a very complex energy consumption landscape that right now is entering a period of rapid change.   

Right now incentives for solar power, battery storage, efficient heatpumps, and EV purchases are what is offered direct to the consumer.  Home heating, personal transport and home electricity use account for a very larger share of our total energy use and carbon emissions.  _


			https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/images/consumption-by-source-and-sector.pdf
		

_
Vehicles are low hanging fruit because they are replaced frequently by consumers.  We focus on them because culturally Americans really value thier vehicles. It’s 5% of gdp. https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/1994/march-79

Residential house has a similar share but it’s a much more permanent investment.  https://www.nahb.org/news-and-econo...usings-contribution-to-gross-domestic-product

I find the sentiment that cleaner technology being incentivized today is not a good investment (both money wise and health wise) without presenting a grounded alternative path forward as dangerous. (And chose that word carefully)


----------



## SpaceBus (Sep 28, 2022)

BrownT10 said:


> Ok, suit yourself. There has to be some kind of balance with a combination of energy sources. The ideas that EV will solve global issues is ignorant in my opinion. It seems everything nowadays has to be extreme one way or the other. Unfortunately we are lead by inept fools that are only concerned for themselves and their agendas. EV vehicles will be a positive step someday, but we will find out in the future they aren't effective and as clean as we thought. There are many questions that need to be answered before we arrive at the conclusion it is the answer.


I didn't say EVs are the only answer, just that daily driving a car with a high strung engine and burning tires all the time is irresponsible. It's not just about the environment either, air pollution is also important. There can only be a a "balance" of energy sources if the net energy used is carbon neutral, or ideally negative as it is pretty easy to put carbon into the atmosphere. To do otherwise is shortsighted and fiscally irresponsible.


----------



## BrownT10 (Sep 28, 2022)

First off, I never said I had a high strung engine. By burn the tires up, I mean replace them when needed, change the oil and that's it for my truck. Simply stating that I like my ICE just fine. What happens when everyone is driving and EV? Do you think all the trucks, planes, boats and construction equipment necessary will magically run on batteries? What about the politicians flying all over the place using jet fuel? Think they give a crap about your environment? I am with you that we need to be conscious of the environment and air quality, but nobody knows what the answer is exactly. My point is that i believe alot of this EV push will turn out to be a drop in the bucket when we look back at it many years from now. A balance with energy independence would be a good thing.


----------



## SpaceBus (Sep 28, 2022)

BrownT10 said:


> First off, I never said I had a high strung engine. By burn the tires up, I mean replace them when needed, change the oil and that's it for my truck. Simply stating that I like my ICE just fine. What happens when everyone is driving and EV? Do you think all the trucks, planes, boats and construction equipment necessary will magically run on batteries? What about the politicians flying all over the place using jet fuel? Think they give a crap about your environment? I am with you that we need to be conscious of the environment and air quality, but nobody knows what the answer is exactly. My point is that i believe alot of this EV push will turn out to be a drop in the bucket when we look back at it many years from now. A balance with energy independence would be a good thing.


EVs are not a drop in the bucket, furthermore they will lead to more energy independence. Think about all the Saudi oil that is imported to fuel all the legacy ICEs in the US. Volvo is already testing plug in hybrid and battery electric heavy equipment, Case has a battery powered backhoe, and there are several other players in the low emissions heavy equipment sector. The times have already changed. 

I apologize for misinterpreting your comments on "burn the tires up" and "suck the fuel". I used to do those things literally, I've had vehicles that did spit flames on throttle lift.


----------



## LogCabinFever (Sep 29, 2022)

I think everyone is forgetting one thing: Toyota isn’t stupid. There’s a reason why they are one of the top dogs and have been for quite a while. Sure some of that in recent years has been run off of their reputation which came to light in the 80s and 90s, but they care more about their own skin than the environment. And honestly, most companies do. If they don’t see it as economically viable, they’re not gonna put all their eggs into EV. The majority of the public is not on board with EV, whether we like it or not. Toyota for sure knows this . It’ll be a long time before EVs are the big sellers over ICE. The Prius caught on because it wasn’t so much of a jump as ICE is to EV. There was very little downsides and people didn’t have to change their behaviors and so it was a natural adaptation. Hybrids still are natural adaptation. A survey was done recently, asking people what price gas would have to be per gallon for them to convert to and EV vehicle. I can’t remember the exact number but it was almost $10/gal. The survey asked why? The majority of people responded that it’s not about cost and the environment so much as it’s about the convenience. The public, particularly the American public  cherishes convenience.  EVs will catch when the infrastructure and range is more on par with that of ICE. 

Are EVs the future? Perhaps. Car companies are going to do what sells, so long as they can sell it.

As I see it, it seems to me the government is pushing it before the infrastructure is there. I could be wrong though.

Again, Toyota will remain relevant for a while. Look at their sales globally. They’re going nowhere. Mazda might be a different situation. They’re smaller and so they might lack the funding for R&D. Who knows?


----------



## woodgeek (Sep 29, 2022)

LogCabinFever said:


> I think everyone is forgetting one thing: Toyota isn’t stupid. There’s a reason why they are one of the top dogs and have been for quite a while. Sure some of that in recent years has been run off of their reputation which came to light in the 80s and 90s, but they care more about their own skin than the environment. And honestly, most companies do. If they don’t see it as economically viable, they’re not gonna put all their eggs into EV. The majority of the public is not on board with EV, whether we like it or not. Toyota for sure knows this . It’ll be a long time before EVs are the big sellers over ICE. The Prius caught on because it wasn’t so much of a jump as ICE is to EV. There was very little downsides and people didn’t have to change their behaviors and so it was a natural adaptation. Hybrids still are natural adaptation. A survey was done recently, asking people what price gas would have to be per gallon for them to convert to and EV vehicle. I can’t remember the exact number but it was almost $10/gal. The survey asked why? The majority of people responded that it’s not about cost and the environment so much as it’s about the convenience. The public, particularly the American public  cherishes convenience.  EVs will catch when the infrastructure and range is more on par with that of ICE.
> 
> Are EVs the future? Perhaps. Car companies are going to do what sells, so long as they can sell it.
> 
> ...



I understand the argument.  But I can turn it around.... all the other car makers aren't stupid either.   And right now, the Japanese makers are outliers.  All the other makers (outside Japan) ALSO know how to do global sales projections, and are making the huge investments to switch over in the next few years.

Also, hybrids never actually caught on... they got to 7-8% of sales in the US about 10 years ago, and have been declining ever since.  This is due to the higher upfront cost, poor driving experience or both.  Most of the folks who liked hybrids now have EVs or are planning to get one soon.

And to be clear, here EVs includes anything with a plug, both battery EVs BEVs and plug-in hybrids PHEVs.  Charging a BEV in your house is very convenient.  You can add that infrastructure to your garage in an afternoon. Even without DCFC stations, a lot of families will get a BEV as a second commuter car, or a PHEV as their only car.  The low cost of operation is the incentive.

Currently, Toyota is running ads about how HEVs are better than PHEVs or BEVs, bc plugging in your car is just too darn hard!

Adoption of EVs varies, and may be more advanced than you think in 2022. Globally, EVs are 9% of the new car market.  In China (which every maker saw as their future market) EV sales hit 30% this year.  In Europe, it is 11%.  In the US, EVs are 5% overall and 20% of new cars in California.  

And EV sales are growing about 30-50% per year.  Conservative projections have the US at 40% adoption in 2028-2029. And the EU there in 2025.

Japan is lagging EV adoption, and this thread is about the disinformation campaign that Toyota is running at home to suppress EV sales there.  

Large companies get disrupted all the time.  Think about Kodak.  They were huge, and actually invented digital cameras.  And as huge as they were... there was just less money in digital.  Now we take 10X as many photos for 1% of the cost.  And Kodak is GONE.

It seems pretty clear that EVs will get cheaper than ICE to buy, are already cheaper to operate, and will need a lot less maintenance bc they have far fewer moving parts.  Charging are home is super cheap and easy.  DCFC networks are getting expanded (to keep up with adoption), and the current generation of EVs fast charge at 150+ kW, or 200 miles of range in <15 minutes.

The first digital cameras were expensive and inferior to film cameras too, but that didn't last forever.  And ad campaigns didn't save Kodak, and they won't save Toyota or any other maker that doesn't make the EV transition.


----------



## bmwloco (Sep 29, 2022)

I point this out to my Tacoma and Tundra driving friends.   Toyota came out the Prius.  50+ mpg.   While the Taco and Tundra get 20-23 on a good day with a tail wind.

Toyota sells Tacoma and Tundra like cord wood on a cold November day.  Think they would adapt it from the Prius?  

And... wait for it... biggest donor to the Republican Party.   Ain't saying that's good or bad.  You can make up your own mind.


----------



## stoveliker (Sep 29, 2022)

but you can't compare a truck with a prius...?
(Unless they would be able to do in a prius what they now do in their tacoma...)

I get a kick out of noting the following: I bought a new car 10 years ago. Pure ICE. Stick shift. I get 41 mpg. 
And the car set me back $11 000 . New. 
A 35k$ Prius might not be worth it if one only commutes, does groceries, or brings kids to school,

(Or highway driving - I've gone from TN to Long Island, from TN to Baton Rouge, from TN to Chicago numerous times in that thing.)


----------



## bmwloco (Sep 29, 2022)

If Toyota doesn't have the engineering chops to adapt Prius parts to a Tocama.... Gawd help 'em as a design firm.

It's just plain lazy.  And a money grab.  Look at the money they make from Tocoma's and Tundra's.  It's staggering.


----------



## woodgeek (Sep 29, 2022)

bmwloco said:


> If Toyota doesn't have the engineering chops to adapt Prius parts to a Tocama.... Gawd help 'em as a design firm.
> 
> It's just plain lazy.  And a money grab.  Look at the money they make from Tocoma's and Tundra's.  It's staggering.



More likely, they have decided that a hybrid truck would not sell well, or not sell well at a price with the same profit margin as the conventional ones.


----------



## SpaceBus (Sep 29, 2022)

bmwloco said:


> I point this out to my Tacoma and Tundra driving friends.   Toyota came out the Prius.  50+ mpg.   While the Taco and Tundra get 20-23 on a good day with a tail wind.
> 
> Toyota sells Tacoma and Tundra like cord wood on a cold November day.  Think they would adapt it from the Prius?
> 
> And... wait for it... biggest donor to the Republican Party.   Ain't saying that's good or bad.  You can make up your own mind.


They do not sell them like cordwood. In 2018 Ford sold nearly ten times as many F150's as Toyota did Tundras. Toyota sales are statistically insignificant when compared to the entire truck market. Where Toyota really shines, or at least used to, was the sedan market with the Corolla and the Camry. For Toyota's best year in 2017 they sold 521,000 Hiluxes, which is a global market vehicle, compared to the F150 at 898,000 sales for the same year.


----------



## dznam (Sep 29, 2022)

Do any of you guys  follow the industry?









						Toyota’s electric vehicle plans are getting bigger and more expensive
					

Lexus will become an EV-only brand by 2035.




					www.theverge.com


----------



## LogCabinFever (Sep 29, 2022)

dznam said:


> Do any of you guys  follow the industry?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Lol. A thread for nothing.

Don’t get me wrong. It does look like the shift is to EVs. They just aren’t there yet. Sure, charging in your garage is convenient if it’s your daily commuter. But not for long distance or off grid travel. ICE still has the upper hand for now. 

As far as cost to own, i’d have to research that. My guess is that EV is still more expensive. Our electric rates in NE are some of the highest in the country. On the home heating front, electric is far more expensive than fossil fuels with the exception of heat pumps. But yes, I do believe once the infrastructure is there and the technology has advanced, that will reverse. Regardless, every manufacture is convinced that some EV production is required to stay relevant.

By the way, Kodak is still alive (despite filing Chapter 11 years ago), they’re just in a different industry. My father-in-law is a current employee. They focus primarily on large scale corporate printing applications.


----------



## semipro (Sep 29, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> And ofc the US grid is getting greener all the time. Since cars are going to be in use for 15-20 years, the calculation should be based upon what the grid looks like not now, but in 10 years. But that is a whole other projection.


Yep.  Plus I can make electricity at home pretty easily so when supply chains fail and motor fuel is tight I can still get around in my EV while my Tacoma sits at home under our PV solar carport. 
I see EVs as security - for my country, for me, and for my kids (energy, mobility, and environment, respectively).


----------



## bmwloco (Sep 30, 2022)

What I am saying is this:

Toyota _could  _have made a hybrid pickup, if they _wanted_ to; but they were making $$$$$ off old designs, so why bother?  It's about MONEY kids, plain and simple.

Ford, Tesla, GM, they make Electric vehicles and people buy them all. 

Toyota is loafing at best.


----------



## peakbagger (Sep 30, 2022)

The new 2023 Tacoma is supposed to be offered as a hybrid. Tentatively it will have the solid state batteries that Toyota is betting on for longer battery range. Trucks typically have far longer redesign cycles than cars, the current body was redesigned in 2015, the prior version was on the market for11 years so the upcoming 2023 redesign is actually early. As someone noted, compared to full sized trucks, the Tacoma is not a huge market in the US and the world market is not clamoring for hybrids as base vehicles thus the numbers probably so not match to have two new distinct models one hybrid and one gas so its compromise.  As I commented before, we are still waiting for an EV light truck designed from scratch and produced in volume, as Tesla has been proving its taking a lot longer than they promised.  

BTW the old LJ based pickups from the 70s are still produced in the middle east and some are being converted to electric mining vehicles (some of them used in canadian mines)


----------



## woodgeek (Sep 30, 2022)

dznam said:


> Do any of you guys  follow the industry?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yes.  The announcement is vaporware.  Promises to spend (small) money to transition in 2030 or even later.  LOL.

This is a real thing.  The other makers played similar games for the last decade, making all kinds of promises just beyond the horizon, and not delivering on them.  The difference is that the other makers have broken ground and are scaling production now, many years after making announcements like Toyota's in 2021.

The same Verge article points out that at the same time Toyota is making this empty announcement, they are still lobbying in the US against EV incentives in 2021!


----------



## SpaceBus (Sep 30, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> Yes.  The announcement is vaporware.  Promises to spend (small) money to transition in 2030 or even later.  LOL.
> 
> This is a real thing.  The other makers played similar games for the last decade, making all kinds of promises just beyond the horizon, and not delivering on them.  The difference is that the other makers have broken ground and are scaling production now, many years after making announcements like Toyota's in 2021.
> 
> The same Verge article points out that at the same time Toyota is making this empty announcement, they are still lobbying in the US against EV incentives in 2021!


They really are a modern interpretation of 60's/70's GM in reaction to the Clean Air Act. Unbelievable that a company that got a foothold in the US auto market by capitalizing on changing markets is fighting this current change. It seems that VW and GM will fight for supremacy, but VAG has a leg up in BEV development.


----------



## SpaceBus (Sep 30, 2022)

peakbagger said:


> The new 2023 Tacoma is supposed to be offered as a hybrid. Tentatively it will have the solid state batteries that Toyota is betting on for longer battery range. Trucks typically have far longer redesign cycles than cars, the current body was redesigned in 2015, the prior version was on the market for11 years so the upcoming 2023 redesign is actually early. As someone noted, compared to full sized trucks, the Tacoma is not a huge market in the US and the world market is not clamoring for hybrids as base vehicles thus the numbers probably so not match to have two new distinct models one hybrid and one gas so its compromise.  As I commented before, we are still waiting for an EV light truck designed from scratch and produced in volume, as Tesla has been proving its taking a lot longer than they promised.
> 
> BTW the old LJ based pickups from the 70s are still produced in the middle east and some are being converted to electric mining vehicles (some of them used in canadian mines)


Volvo is heavily investing in BEV and PHEV options for mining operations. I'll try and dig up the article.


----------



## EbS-P (Sep 30, 2022)

bmwloco said:


> What I am saying is this:
> 
> Toyota _could  _have made a hybrid pickup, if they _wanted_ to; but they were making $$$$$ off old designs, so why bother?  It's about MONEY kids, plain and simple.
> 
> ...


They do   They have a hybrid V6 for the sequoia.


----------



## bmwloco (Sep 30, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> They do   They have a hybrid V6 for the sequoia.
> 
> View attachment 299655



Well, I guess is makes smug soccer mom's happy.  "It's a hybriiiiid...."


----------



## EbS-P (Sep 30, 2022)

440 HPs and 580 torques.  They won’t be the only ones happy!


----------



## begreen (Sep 30, 2022)

Toyota does make reliable if bland cars. They know their market and getting 40-50mpg with a Camry Hybrid is a laudable accomplishment. 

There was an interesting posting in the RAV4 Prime forum where a guy traded in his Mustang Mach-E for a RAV prime. Rather than interpret, I will include the entire posting here:

Having a totally electric car was on my "bucket list" as I've had many ICE vehicles and three hybrids and I'm also a "Ford" man so when the order banks opened up I ordered one not knowing anything about BEV cars. My Mach E was, and is lovely and I really liked it in the beginning. It was great to pass up gas stations selling gas at almost $5/gallon. Just plug it in in my garage with my Grizzl-E L2 charger and I was all set. The torque on the car is incredible and it is really fast off the line! Everybody oogled the car as it was so unique. Then the quirks of owning a totally electric car started to set in. It has a standard range battery with a 210 mile range with a 100% SOC. That distance isn't very far compared to the range on ICE vehicles and hybrid vehicles. This is known to cause "range anxiety" and I have it but my wife REALLY is anxious about it. To make matters worse, the battery loses 30-40% of its range in cold weather making it evermore of a problem (and less range yet if you run the heater). Then there is the problem of the electric grid and infrastructure. There are NOT enough DC fast chargers available and for us taking a long trip in it was out of the question. Sure, the die hards on the Mach E Forum drove their cars long distances but they really had to plan their routes and stay waiting 30-40 minutes at each charging EVSE to get to 80% SOC. I can fill my gas tank in 5 minutes. What drove me over the edge is that the high voltage junction box contactors in the battery were overheating and welding shut or open when they started arcing. Ford will NOT replace the HVJB's until they fail and I don't want to be stranded somewhere when mine fails (it's a question of when, not if). I feel like I'm driving a "time bomb" and it is no longer a reliable car in my eyes. My wife has been urging me to sell it also as she was never wild about a battery operated car in the first place (her range anxiety is far worse than mine). The RAV4 P plug-in hybrid seems like the logical choice and is far more practical than the Mach E is for us anyway. We still can drive electric around home and switch to hybrid for longer trips. The range of the RAV4 P is significantly further and we don't have to worry about finding a DC EVSE. Bottom line for me is that totally electric cars are not ready for "Prime" (get it 😅) time yet! I like not contributing to climate change but I am most definitely NOT a tree hugger! The PHEV helps with carbon emissions and the entire concept is just more practical for my wife and I. Thus we are selling it now while we can get a trade-in which is MORE than we paid for it originally, Ya have to strike while the fire is hot! I'm looking forward to the RAV4 as it is more like all our previous cars with knobs and switches, etc., instead of running everything on the huge tablet like interface in the Mach E (my fat fingers didn't help either). I'm 73 and my wife is 72 and the RAV4 will be a better fit for many reasons (most of which I have already commented on). BUT, if you want a nice totally electric car and are used to all the quirks of owning and rumnning one I can recommend it (as the newer models don't have the HVJB issues). I like it better than Tesla as I think it has a better fit and finish. Good luck finding one though; they are as scarce as a RAV4 Prime (maybe even mores). Mike


----------



## EbS-P (Sep 30, 2022)

Has anyone see a tear down on the newest hybrid?  Here is one for the 16-22. I don’t se how an electric traction motor and a charging motor and an ICE can be cheaper than a single drive unit that does regen.


----------



## woodgeek (Oct 1, 2022)

begreen said:


> Toyota does make reliable if bland cars. They know their market and getting 40-50mpg with a Camry Hybrid is a laudable accomplishment.
> 
> There was an interesting posting in the RAV4 Prime forum where a guy traded in his Mustang Mach-E for a RAV prime. Rather than interpret, I will include the entire posting here:
> 
> Having a totally electric car was on my "bucket list" as I've had many ICE vehicles and three hybrids and I'm also a "Ford" man so when the order banks opened up I ordered one not knowing anything about BEV cars. My Mach E was, and is lovely and I really liked it in the beginning. It was great to pass up gas stations selling gas at almost $5/gallon. Just plug it in in my garage with my Grizzl-E L2 charger and I was all set. The torque on the car is incredible and it is really fast off the line! Everybody oogled the car as it was so unique. Then the quirks of owning a totally electric car started to set in. It has a standard range battery with a 210 mile range with a 100% SOC. That distance isn't very far compared to the range on ICE vehicles and hybrid vehicles. This is known to cause "range anxiety" and I have it but my wife REALLY is anxious about it. To make matters worse, the battery loses 30-40% of its range in cold weather making it evermore of a problem (and less range yet if you run the heater). Then there is the problem of the electric grid and infrastructure. There are NOT enough DC fast chargers available and for us taking a long trip in it was out of the question. Sure, the die hards on the Mach E Forum drove their cars long distances but they really had to plan their routes and stay waiting 30-40 minutes at each charging EVSE to get to 80% SOC. I can fill my gas tank in 5 minutes. What drove me over the edge is that the high voltage junction box contactors in the battery were overheating and welding shut or open when they started arcing. Ford will NOT replace the HVJB's until they fail and I don't want to be stranded somewhere when mine fails (it's a question of when, not if). I feel like I'm driving a "time bomb" and it is no longer a reliable car in my eyes. My wife has been urging me to sell it also as she was never wild about a battery operated car in the first place (her range anxiety is far worse than mine). The RAV4 P plug-in hybrid seems like the logical choice and is far more practical than the Mach E is for us anyway. We still can drive electric around home and switch to hybrid for longer trips. The range of the RAV4 P is significantly further and we don't have to worry about finding a DC EVSE. Bottom line for me is that totally electric cars are not ready for "Prime" (get it 😅) time yet! I like not contributing to climate change but I am most definitely NOT a tree hugger! The PHEV helps with carbon emissions and the entire concept is just more practical for my wife and I. Thus we are selling it now while we can get a trade-in which is MORE than we paid for it originally, Ya have to strike while the fire is hot! I'm looking forward to the RAV4 as it is more like all our previous cars with knobs and switches, etc., instead of running everything on the huge tablet like interface in the Mach E (my fat fingers didn't help either). I'm 73 and my wife is 72 and the RAV4 will be a better fit for many reasons (most of which I have already commented on). BUT, if you want a nice totally electric car and are used to all the quirks of owning and rumnning one I can recommend it (as the newer models don't have the HVJB issues). I like it better than Tesla as I think it has a better fit and finish. Good luck finding one though; they are as scarce as a RAV4 Prime (maybe even mores). Mike


I liked this post, bc it made perfect sense to me.

I owned and road-tripped in my 2014 (Gen 1) Nissan LEAF, with a '100 mile' range, back when NONE of the current EA or EVGo DCFCs existed.  All I had was a couple 24 kW units between Philly and NYC, 100 miles away.  On the highway in winter... range was less than 60 miles.  Or about 50 minutes at highway speeds.

And the fact is, I would think twice about buying a BEV with a 210 mile EPA range in 2022, and I would never pay MachE prices for one (about $50k).  I leased my 2022 Bolt EV, with an OK 260 mile range, for the equivalent of $27k MSRP, a little over half of the Ford.  And even then, I kept my 2015 Volt in case I have to do a longer winter road trips (or give my kids a used car).

This works for me bc my major use cases beyond daily driving are a 200 mile beach trip and a 250 mile trip to family.  The former requires no DCFC at all, the latter a single very short stop (like 20 minutes).

I fully expect the Bolt will get on my nerves a little with the low range in winter (probably 170-180 miles with winter tires), and the 50 kW DCFC will be a minor drag as well on longer road trips... but its a 3 year lease.  I will get a much more capable car in 3 years for a similar or lower price.

What's my point?  For all the hype, there IS a case to be made AGAINST buying a BEV in 2022.  There are expensive EVs, and low range EVs, and people living in apartments, and folks with long distance use cases, etc.  

Also, all the makers making EVs for the first time... there is gonna be a huge pile of kinks to work out.  For example:
—The LEAF batteries were short life, esp in hot climates. 
—The Gen 1 Tesla model S developed drive unit axle cracks, so many were replaced multiple times under warranty in the same vehicle.
—The Gen 1 Bolt batteries (actually mostly the 2019s) would burn up sometimes (as would the several Korean makes that used the same battery, but didn't get any press).  
—Toyota's current first BEV has problems with the wheels falling off (LOL).  
—The MachE has a defective main contactor (relay) that can leave people stranded or worse.
and many more...

Its certainly not a no-brainer to get an EV.  Caveat Emptor.


----------



## begreen (Oct 1, 2022)

Yes, it's why we have the Volt for now. Its 65 mile range covers 90+% of all our driving, and the range extending generator eliminates range anxiety. Our next car, if there is one, will be a BEV, but that may not be for a few years. And we have the van so our needs are covered for now as battery tech and infrastructure improve.

There are some cases where BEVs are going to be a challenge, like extreme northern climates and rural areas of the west. I mean, how much infrastructure will be practical to put in for Wyoming or western Kansas, or Nebraska?


----------



## SpaceBus (Oct 1, 2022)

begreen said:


> Yes, it's why we have the Volt for now. Its 65 mile range covers 90+% of all our driving, and the range extending generator eliminates range anxiety. Our next car, if there is one, will be a BEV, but that may not be for a few years. And we have the van so our needs are covered for now as battery tech and infrastructure improve.
> 
> There are some cases where BEVs are going to be a challenge, like extreme northern climates and rural areas of the west. I mean, how much infrastructure will be practical to put in for Wyoming or western Kansas, or Nebraska?


I like to think we will get a BEV, or at least PHEV, in the future, but realistically I'm not sure if we will ever *need* to buy a new car.


----------



## begreen (Oct 1, 2022)

True that, both of our cars were used on purchase. That's another advantage of waiting until low-mileage BEVs show up on the used market.


----------



## woodgeek (Oct 1, 2022)

begreen said:


> There are some cases where BEVs are going to be a challenge, like extreme northern climates and rural areas of the west. I mean, how much infrastructure will be practical to put in for Wyoming or western Kansas, or Nebraska?



The cost of DCFC units are falling rapidly as more units are going into the field.  And then the number of units required will scale with the local population or traffic on the interstate.  So there might never be as many DCFC in Wyoming as in California, but there could easily be as many as needed.

A DCFC unit is a very simple and durable device (in principle) with lower upkeep than a gasoline station. And there are enough gasoline stations in Wyoming to support the need.


----------



## EbS-P (Oct 1, 2022)

As a western Kansas native I never lived more than 100 miles from a Walmart.  I haven’t looked but I bet every Walmart has a charger within 10 miles.  

I’m not ready to be an EV only family.  Might never get there but for every day driving even those in western Kansas could get by just fine.  EV adoption is political so they won’t.  It that simple.


----------



## peakbagger (Oct 1, 2022)

I  don't spend my time looking at Walmart's but I've never seen one in NH with a charging station. It's odd as plug ins and BEVs are starting to show up in the area. The only nearby chargers are at campground, and a local resort hotel. The local utility wants 2 million dollars to upgrade the power system in my small town just to get ready for charging stations  (not including the charging stations). 

All of the generation in the area is renewable (its net exporter to the ISO New England grid 24/7). About 40 MWs run of river hydro with a big Tesla battery bank going in, a 70 MW biomass plant with at least 30 days of fuel on the pad,  a 99 MW wind farm, a 5  MW wind farm and a few small community solar farms going in soon.  IF there was a better connection to the grid, there would be another 160 MW wind plant built.

I do get a kick that the local ATV rental business which is usually frequented by folks with big pickup trucks is desperate to get a Tesla Supercharger station at his business to draw in more traffic. The closest Tesla supercharger is 30 miles east or about 40 miles south.


----------



## EbS-P (Oct 1, 2022)

peakbagger said:


> I  dont send my time looking at Walmart's but I never seen one in NH with a charging station. Its odd as plug ins and BEVs are starting to show up in the area. The only nearby chargers is at campground, and a local resort hotel. The local utility wants 2 million dollars to upgrade the power system in my small town just to get ready for charging stations  (not including the charging stations).
> 
> All of the generation in the area is renewable (its net exporter to the ISO New England grid 24/7). About 40 MWs run of river hydro with a big Tesla battery bank going in, a 70 MW biomass plant with at least 30 days of fuel on the pad,  a 99 MW wind farm, a 5  MW wind farm and a few small community solar farms going in soon.  IF there was a better connection to the grid, there would be another 160 MW wind plant built.
> 
> I do get a kick that the local ATV rental business which is usually frequented by folks with big pickup trucks is desperate to get a Tesla Supercharger station at his business to draw in more traffic. The closest Tesla supercharger is 30 miles east or about 40 miles south.


I agree but N H just isn’t wester Kansas.  My point is that Walmarts are roughly 100 miles apart. Goolang Hays, Great Bend, garden city, liberal.  I’m not saying that every Walmart has a charger they just have a population center near a Walmart that manny people travel to.    Looks like we’d be making trips to Goodland in a Tesla.  And everyone’s favorite destination Lamar CO. We lived right on the KS CO border. Then later in hays. 

Yeah it’s pretty bleak out there if your not heading to an interstate in a Tesla.


----------



## EbS-P (Oct 1, 2022)

Ok is Toyota on to something?  Hybrids smaller batteries may be more cost competitive?

And economics is just like physics only harder…… (wait for it).


----------



## stoveliker (Oct 3, 2022)

Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda talks about why he isn't all-in on EVs — and what made him do a 'happy dance'
					

Akio Toyoda said last week he would like his legacy to be "I love cars." But how he will be remembered for all-electric vehicles is still being determined.




					www.cnbc.com
				




15 purely EV models by 2025 is not bad?


----------



## LogCabinFever (Oct 4, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda talks about why he isn't all-in on EVs — and what made him do a 'happy dance'
> 
> 
> Akio Toyoda said last week he would like his legacy to be "I love cars." But how he will be remembered for all-electric vehicles is still being determined.
> ...


Again, others may laugh and criticize, but it just makes sense. Akio Toyoda is not putting all his eggs in one basket, and instead diversifying his powerplant portfolio. He knows where his bread and butter is and he knows his customers. It’s hard to argue against that, seeing Toyota‘s success. He puts his head down and ignores all the hysteria.  And believe me, I’m definitely not a Toyota fan boy.


----------



## woodgeek (Oct 4, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda talks about why he isn't all-in on EVs — and what made him do a 'happy dance'
> 
> 
> Akio Toyoda said last week he would like his legacy to be "I love cars." But how he will be remembered for all-electric vehicles is still being determined.
> ...



Its a good article, and echoes the speeches and public statement Toyoda has been making for the last 2 years.  

Of course, all large corporations do PR, and that PR is more about making shareholders happy than about the truth.  The other car makers also promised XX new BEV models by some year, and none of them met their targets.

Also, makers like GM were fielding EVs for many years, and making profound statements about their investments in EV and hope and change, and then delivered tiny volumes of these vehicles, with power trains built entirely by a Korean sub-contractor.  The other legacy makers were being even MORE disingenuous, and selling even tinier volumes of hastily designed conversion cars.  Or tiny volumes of luxury EVs at eye-watering prices.

And then when Trump got elected in 2016 ALL OF THEM signed a letter asking for weaker CAFE standards and saying the EVs wouldn't work or weren't ready for prime time.

So ALL of the legacy makers were singing the exact same tune as Toyoda is until a few years ago.  Toyoda's companies (he represents the trade group of all the Japanese makers) are just a few years behind the other legacy makers, like 3 or 4.  Just like how those legacy makers are still about 3-4 years behind Tesla, in terms of production scale.

Being an early adopter in tech can get you killed, if you enter before the customer value proposition is there....

Did the non-Japanese legacy makers enter too late (as the Tesla fans assert), all doomed to bankruptcy as Tesla (and maybe other startups) take over?  I very much DOUBT that.

Will the US legacy makers be able to scale EV production over the next 3-5 years to meet exponentially growing demand in the US and EU?  I bet they CAN, and will compete with Tesla with (most) folks that like a more traditional car/model and like/trust an existing US brand.

China looks like a death match right now between BYD, Tesla and a bunch of chinese BYD startup clones.  

Toyoda is betting that the value proposition for the customer (due, e.g. a higher than expected cost of batteries say 3-5 years from now) will not be there to allow for high demand.  In this case the US/EU makers scale their products, and don't turn a profit or enough profit on them, while Toyota continues to make a healthy profit on ICE models.  In this scenario, Toyota then enters the market later when BEVs DO become favorable. Its not clear how or when that would happen, but Toyoda likes to talk about solid state batteries, like a technological 'deus ex machina' that puts/keeps them on top of a BEV world. 5-10 years from now.

I'm skeptical.  Costs (like with batteries) are reduced by learning curves.  By building LOTS of batteries.  True, some OTHER battery chemistry might magically appear that then eats conventional lithiums lunch, and all that learning and production infrastructure becomes obsolete, and then Toyota swoops in, laughing, with a Japanese govt bankroll to boot!

But honestly, that seems like wishful thinking to me.  There is a lot to this EV transition OTHER than battery cells.  Winning over customers, building infrastructure, working out the kinks of building electric drivetrains cheaply,  restocking spare parts networks and repair techs, etc.  If a new cell chemistry appears, it seems more likely that it will emerge by a series of steps at the existing BEV makers (Tesla or a legacy maker) and be quickly reverse engineered by the others, with a little retooling.  Which is what is happening now.

Toyoda is betting the farm.  We will see in a few years if he was right.


----------



## stoveliker (Oct 4, 2022)

Well, Toyota argues, and correctly so, that the others are betting the farm too. Just on the other side.

If Toyota is not disingenuous with their professed  EV planning, I don't think they are wrong. In fact, every new product will have reliability issues, leading to trust issues. Not discounting individual experiences here, Toyota has for a long time been a very reliable and trustworthy brand . If they come in a bit later, they will still have that association. The trick is to time it well because too late will hurt them.


----------



## woodgeek (Oct 4, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> If Toyota is not disingenuous with their professed  EV planning, I don't think they are wrong.


Toyota IS being disingenuous.  That is the point of this thread.  They are actively advertising and lobbying AGAINST BEVs at home and abroad, while Toyoda is giving this PR speech to shareholders.   (Just like the other makers did in the past)

That is the definition of disingenuous.


----------



## stoveliker (Oct 4, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> Toyota IS being disingenuous.  That is the point of this thread.  They are actively advertising and lobbying AGAINST BEVs at home and abroad, while Toyoda is giving this PR speech to shareholders.   (Just like the other makers did in the past)
> 
> That is the definition of disingenuous.


I think it is not.
Their philosophy is that a *pure* BEV world is as of yet not achievable. That is consistent with their business approach of not giving up ICE yet. And it is consistent with their arguing (to policy makers) that going purely BEV is not the right move right now (in their view).

They are NOT saying "don't do BEV's". They are saying, "we can't ONLY do BEV's right now".

I find their behavior utterly internally consistent.

The BEV world is not as black and white as the extremes on both sides want to make it...


----------



## boomfire (Oct 4, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> I think it is not.
> Their philosophy is that a *pure* BEV world is as of yet not achievable. That is consistent with their business approach of not giving up ICE yet. And it is consistent with their arguing (to policy makers) that going purely BEV is not the right move right now (in their view).
> 
> They are NOT saying "don't do BEV's". They are saying, "we can't ONLY do BEV's right now".
> ...



+1









						Toyota Announces $2.5 Billion Expansion of North Carolina Plant with 350 Additional Jobs and BEV Battery Capacity - Toyota USA Newsroom
					

LIBERTY, N.C. (Aug. 31, 2022) – Toyota announced an additional investment of $2.5 billion in its newest North American facility, Toyota Battery Manufacturing North Carolina (TBMNC). This investment adds capacity to support battery electric vehicle (BEV) battery production and adds 350 jobs...




					pressroom.toyota.com
				











						Toyota Continues Its Fast BEV Development Pace With Battery Investments in US & Japan
					

When Toyota announced last April 2021 its plan to introduce a full line-up of 70 electrified vehicles, with 15 BEVs,




					cleantechnica.com
				











						Toyota Has Twice As Many Solid-State Battery Patents As Anyone Else
					

In the race to crack solid-state batteries, Toyota has amassed more than 1,300 patents related to the tech.




					www.thedrive.com
				





I traded my Toyota corolla for Ioniq 5 (BEV), don't get me wrong, i like my ioniq 5, but the moment Toyota comes out with a BEV that I like (tacoma/tundra), I will be in line for one


----------



## stoveliker (Oct 4, 2022)

I'm quite pro EV's too. I'm just not seeing something wrong with proclaiming "all BEV is not the right path at this time" and acting like "all BEV is not the right path at this time".

The next car I'll buy is going to be an BEV for sure. My drive-to-end-of-life mode just makes that event a while out.


----------



## peakbagger (Oct 4, 2022)

Keep in mind that with self driving tech, it is not impossible that folks may not own a car, they will just dial up an EV service provider and the charged car will self drive to their house for their use until they done with it. It will drop them off and head back to the "barn", which may be a neighbor that is willing to rent out their car.


----------



## woodgeek (Oct 4, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> I think it is not.
> Their philosophy is that a *pure* BEV world is as of yet not achievable. That is consistent with their business approach of not giving up ICE yet. And it is consistent with their arguing (to policy makers) that going purely BEV is not the right move right now (in their view).
> 
> They are NOT saying "don't do BEV's". They are saying, "we can't ONLY do BEV's right now".
> ...



Not black and white.  A growing curve.  Some makers are ahead on the curve, others are bringing up the rear.

And for the record, the other legacy makers are still making a chit-ton of ICE vehicles and will be doing so for a long time, they are still at the beginning of the curve, not at the top.  They are just all-in with actually scaling BEV production and putting many models on the market.  But the transition will take time.  They obv think they can sell the BEVs they are making now at a good price that will move.

Toyota is not scaling production right now.  They are doing the same lip service the other makers did years ago.  They are fielding a single, not very good or well priced BEV now, not at scale.  Kinda like GM did 5 years ago.  They appear to be acting like there is no money to be made in 2022 or 2023 selling BEVs.  So they are not gonna.  Despite other companies making millions of BEVs, apparently to heavy demand.

And yeah, I still think its disingenuous to give speeches about how EVs are the future, while lobbying against incentives for BEVs around the world.  I guess we'll have to disagree on that one.  Ofc, all the other legacy makers did the same thing.... like 4-5 years ago.


----------



## stoveliker (Oct 4, 2022)

I guess you and I disagree about advocating against pushing to make EVs the sole option. I concur with Toyota it is not the right approach to go all in now.

That is what they are lobbying against. And their actions are consistent with that. Nothing disingenuous there.

So they may think others (including govts) are going too fast. That is not an opinion that is without merit. They may be wrong, and if so they will suffer the consequences. But it's not disingenuous.


----------



## woodgeek (Oct 4, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> I guess you and I disagree about advocating against pushing to make EVs the sole option. I concur with Toyota it is not the right approach to go all in now.
> 
> That is what they are lobbying against. And their actions are consistent with that. Nothing disingenuous there.
> 
> So they may think others (including govts) are going too fast. That is not an opinion that is without merit. They may be wrong, and if so they will suffer the consequences. But it's not disingenuous.


They are not running against making EVs the sole option at some future date.  They are running ads and lobbying against incentives to reduce current BEV sales TODAY, period.  As if the current sales of BEVs to happy customers is a regretful MISTAKE.

The only thing wrong with selling a few BEVs today is that it reduces Toyota's profits.  They are not selflessly trying to save the world from making a bad policy decision.


----------



## EbS-P (Oct 4, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> Not black and white.  A growing curve.  Some makers are ahead on the curve, others are bringing up the rear.
> 
> And for the record, the other legacy makers are still making a chit-ton of ICE vehicles and will be doing so for a long time, they are still at the beginning of the curve, not at the top.  They are just all-in with actually scaling BEV production and putting many models on the market.  But the transition will take time.  They obv think they can sell the BEVs they are making now at a good price that will move.
> 
> ...


It’s a hedge. And when done correctly you come out on top and worst case you don’t loose the farm.   

I would like to see Toyota North American operations are operating with a different perspective.


----------



## NewGuy132 (Oct 5, 2022)

bmwloco said:


> I point this out to my Tacoma and Tundra driving friends.   Toyota came out the Prius.  50+ mpg.   While the Taco and Tundra get 20-23 on a good day with a tail wind.
> 
> Toyota sells Tacoma and Tundra like cord wood on a cold November day.  Think they would adapt it from the Prius?
> 
> And... wait for it... biggest donor to the Republican Party.   Ain't saying that's good or bad.  You can make up your own mind.


Cam here days late just to correct you.  I drive a Tundra and get 15 MPG highway.  That being said I don't see a hybrid Tundra being a big seller.  People are already spending $50k+ on Tundra's, and they know what they are getting themselves in to.  I don't think that adding another $20k to the price to get an extra even 20 MPG is going to have many people chomping at the bit.


----------



## begreen (Oct 5, 2022)

The hybrid option is $3000 more for the Highlander SUV. Why would it cost $20k more for the Tundra?  I would think it would be more like $5k for the Tundra. The hybrid version of the Highlander gets 50% better gas mileage than the non-hybrid. It's probably a fair equivalent of what the Tacoma would see.


----------



## Riverbanks (Oct 5, 2022)

So, what is the vote, ?, Do we want to see them fail?


----------



## boomfire (Oct 5, 2022)

bmwloco said:


> And... wait for it... biggest donor to the Republican Party.   Ain't saying that's good or bad.  You can make up your own mind.











						Toyota Motor Corp Profile: Totals
					

Toyota Motor Corp organization profile: contributions by party of recipient, by source of funds, and affiliates.




					www.opensecrets.org
				




looks like a smidge more to democrats than republicans?


----------



## Riverbanks (Oct 5, 2022)

I haven't heard of that site, a good one?


----------



## EbS-P (Oct 5, 2022)

begreen said:


> The hybrid option is $3000 more for the Highlander SUV. Why would it cost $20k more for the Tundra?  I would think it would be more like $5k for the Tundra. The hybrid version of the Highlander gets 50% better gas mileage than the non-hybrid. It's probably a fair equivalent of what the Tacoma would see.


I imagine the highlander shares the i4 hybrid with the  Sienna.  The twin turbo V6 for the tundra/sequoia definitely is more expensive.    Number of v6 hybrid units will definitely be less than the i4.  Market segment of the tundra and sequoia is different than the highlander.  

Tacoma has in the past not shared power plays with the sienna and highlander.  I don’t thick them hybrid Tacoma’s mileage will increase as much as the highlander. Drag Coefficient will be higher.  Can’t remember the towing capacity of the highlander but I recall the Tacoma’s was higher.  I’m think the highlander is now a CVT don’t think they would put that in the Tacoma.


----------



## Riverbanks (Oct 5, 2022)

I should have been more clear, a good one, ? Is lame, a great one is better, I like common sense


----------



## begreen (Oct 5, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> I imagine the highlander shares the i4 hybrid with the Sienna. The twin turbo V6 for the tundra/sequoia definitely is more expensive. Number of v6 hybrid units will definitely be less than the i4. Market segment of the tundra and sequoia is different than the highlander.


Probably right. I just can't see an additional 20k for a hybrid. Even the VIA conversion of the Volt drive didn't cost that much.


----------



## SpaceBus (Oct 6, 2022)

begreen said:


> Probably right. I just can't see an additional 20k for a hybrid. Even the VIA conversion of the Volt drive didn't cost that much.


In pickup trucks the diesel engine option is at least $5,000 more than the gas options, in many cases $11k more. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a huge premium for a hybrid Taco or Tundra.


----------



## woodgeek (Oct 6, 2022)

Riverbanks said:


> So, what is the vote, ?, Do we want to see them fail?



I don't want to see anyone fail.  I am sure the Japanese are going to develop BEVs at some point, perhaps a few years late and with a govt bailout, and PR being what it is, will claim to be leading the others with better tech, when they are bringing up the rear.

The essential point is that no one is saying we have to go all EVs in 2023, or 2025.  The usual figure is 2035-ish.  In my mind, the transition is going to be slow and organic and require changing a lot of minds and building out a lot of infrastructure. The generational change (younger people are more on board with EVs) is already on its way. This is NOT as easy as swapping out incandescent bulbs for LED ones.  

But remember, production of light ICE vehicles peaked in 2017!  https://www.hearth.com/talk/threads/the-rise-of-evs-some-data.193584/

This is not some foolish politician (insert your favorite) deciding EVs are good and laying out a foolish and impossible mandate.  That is a cartoon of how public policy is decided.  In reality, experts and academics, often in consultation with corporations and makers try to predict future market trends... and then design that public policy (like an incentive) around the projection.

So we shouldn't be surprised when there is consensus.  The US makers, the pols in different countries and different states are all looking at the same 2035 projection and planning their product lines and factory rework to that.  Which of course still involves building a decade's worth of new ICE vehicles while ramping down.

The EU and China makers are working with a slightly faster timeline... bc they are a few years ahead of us on adoption for a variety of reasons.

And against this backdrop, we have a rather monolithic set of makers in Japan, that are saying the other projections are just wrong.  Without providing any real modeling or data other than the usual talking points and FUD.  This happens with fat and happy incumbents sometimes... they just stick their fingers in their ears and say 'No' we don't HAVE to do that, and they throw their PR and lobbying money at the politicians to block and slow and delay the existing public policy path (which is science and math driven).

This is no different than fossil energy incumbents blocking anything Renewable in the fed and state govts.  Delay Delay Dealy while they make a few more years of fat profits.  And making a cloud of PR and FUD that those bought pols can point to as (fake) science to justify their bad policy directions.

This is no different than Tobacco companies doing fake science and blocking anti-smoking campaigns.

The Japanese makers LIKE the status quo (they are on top, after all), and think that delaying and fake policy arguments and FUD is just fine.

And the irony is that tobacco and fossil companies can't really switch to other substitute products.

Legacy car makers CAN switch to EVs... but there is a problem. The revenue and profits associated with the new vehicles will be much lower.  The vehicles have far fewer moving parts.  Maintenance will be lower.  The dealers and repair people and spare parts makers will all get much smaller.

So even as the volume of vehicles grows, the total revenue of the car industry is going to shrink.  Not everyone can survive at their current scale.


----------



## begreen (Oct 6, 2022)

SpaceBus said:


> In pickup trucks the diesel engine option is at least $5,000 more than the gas options, in many cases $11k more. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a huge premium for a hybrid Taco or Tundra.


Looks like the Tundra has had a hybrid V6 version available since the 2022 model year. It was standard with the TRD Pro version and called the iForce Max which totes a small 1.5kWh battery.  In their 2023 models, the hybrid has been extended down to the Limited and Platinum versions. The Tundra Limited with hybrid goes for about $6000 more than the next model down, SR5.


----------



## SpaceBus (Oct 6, 2022)

begreen said:


> Looks like the Tundra has had a hybrid V6 version available since the 2022 model year. It was standard with the TRD Pro version and called the iForce Max which totes a small 1.5kWh battery.  In their 2023 models, the hybrid has been extended down to the Limited and Platinum versions. The Tundra Limited with hybrid goes for about $6000 more than the next model down, SR5.


I'm not impressed with the projected fuel economy on that truck, but at $6,000 I would say the hybrid option is still worth it. It looks like the system yields about 25% better fuel economy than the V8. The F150 hybrid is more impressive rated at 24 combined. Meanwhile I'm chuckling at the 26.5 MPG average I'm maintaining in my 8,000+ lb 2006 LWB 4x4 diesel 3500. I can't understand why half ton and smaller trucks can't muster much better than a gas 3/4 or 1 ton truck. Even the Maverick Hybrid is being reported to return 30 MPG average in the real world. Perhaps drag is the issue. Edit: I misread the data for the Maverick, it does appreciably better at 55 MPH and less. Some owners are reporting 40 MPG average, which is pretty good. Maybe Ford will come out with a PHEV or BEV small pickup.


----------



## begreen (Oct 6, 2022)

Yes, I am still amazed at the 28mpg+ I am getting with my heavy Dodge Caravan. That's my truck/camper/bus for the time being. My F150 would only get 20mpg+ under ideal conditions. The moment the turbos kicked in it dropped.


----------



## SpaceBus (Oct 7, 2022)

begreen said:


> Yes, I am still amazed at the 28mpg+ I am getting with my heavy Dodge Caravan. That's my truck/camper/bus for the time being. My F150 would only get 20mpg+ under ideal conditions. The moment the turbos kicked in it dropped.


Apparently in the real world F150 hybrid owners are reporting 20-21 MPG average, but not sure how much highway driving they are doing. My fuel economy drops off a cliff anywhere above 55 MPH, but your van is probably fine up to 60-65 MPH. My gearing and drag become a huge problem above 55 for me, but apparently that's the case for any truck. The hybrid trucks return the best fuel economy, not surprisingly, at 45 MPH and less and stop and go traffic.


----------



## GrumpyDad (Oct 7, 2022)

SpaceBus said:


> Apparently in the real world F150 hybrid owners are reporting 20-21 MPG average, but not sure how much highway driving they are doing. My fuel economy drops off a cliff anywhere above 55 MPH, but your van is probably fine up to 60-65 MPH. My gearing and drag become a huge problem above 55 for me, but apparently that's the case for any truck. The hybrid trucks return the best fuel economy, not surprisingly, at 45 MPH and less and stop and go traffic.


That's very odd. I recall friends with f150s bragging about getting 22 combined and that was awhile ago. Meanwhile I was getting 15/16 in a little nissan truck I had.  Geesh.  Hybrid what?


----------



## begreen (Oct 7, 2022)

Nissan makes tough vehicles, but they are not known for their gas mileage.
Our F150 did ok on fairly level freeway driving at 60 mph. I could maintain about 18 mpg with a 1200# load in back. I did once get 22 mpg on a steady 50-55mph drive, unloaded. Only once. Put the camper on and it was more like 12-16. That's what I like about the van, 28-30mpg without even trying, though most of that is at 65mph or less. At 70 mph it's likely to drop down to 26-28.


----------



## begreen (Oct 24, 2022)

Well, this is an interesting turnaround. Toyota seems to finally be reading the tea leaves.








						Exclusive: Toyota scrambles for EV reboot with eye on Tesla
					

Toyota is considering a reboot of its electric-car strategy to better compete in a booming market it has been slow to enter, and has halted some work on existing EV projects, four people with knowledge of the still-developing plans said.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## SpaceBus (Oct 24, 2022)

begreen said:


> Well, this is an interesting turnaround. Toyota seems to be reading the tea leaves.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I've seen this from a few different sources, but it seems like Australia is going all in on EV and Hydrogen infrastructure. 

https://www.electrive.com/2022/02/21/australia-co-funds-charging-and-h2-infrastructure/


----------



## woodgeek (Oct 24, 2022)

begreen said:


> Well, this is an interesting turnaround. Toyota seems to finally be reading the tea leaves.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



"Toyota's planning had assumed demand for EVs would not take off for *several decades*, the four people said.  ...  But sales of EVs are growing faster. Automakers globally now forecast plans for EVs to represent more than half of total vehicle production by 2030, part of a wave of industry-wide investment that now totals $1.2 trillion."


----------



## begreen (Oct 24, 2022)

Some big bucks are starting to flow into EV development.


----------



## stoveliker (Oct 24, 2022)

I like this. If the engineering is going to be of the same quality as they have on their ICE vehicles, I'd be interested.

(And I like the Aussi hydrogen push as well - technologically simpler than batteries, though infrastructure demands are higher. It could possibly make higher energy-need transport (18-wheelers and planes) more sustainable - IF hydrogen can be economically and sustainably made without cracking nat. gas....)


----------



## SpaceBus (Oct 24, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> I like this. If the engineering is going to be of the same quality as they have on their ICE vehicles, I'd be interested.
> 
> (And I like the Aussi hydrogen push as well - technologically simpler than batteries, though infrastructure demands are higher. It could possibly make higher energy-need transport (18-wheelers and planes) more sustainable - IF hydrogen can be economically and sustainably made without cracking nat. gas....)


Aus is specifically investing in clean H2 generation, mostly from solar and wind generation. Then the H2 can be stored in a fuel cell and backfeed power when solar and wind are not producing.


----------



## begreen (Oct 24, 2022)

The hydrogen cycle is notoriously inefficient. But when renewables costs drop so that it can be made almost for free, then it starts looking attractive.


----------



## SpaceBus (Oct 24, 2022)

begreen said:


> The hydrogen cycle is notoriously inefficient. But when renewables costs drop so that it can be made almost for free, then it starts looking attractive.


I agree, there are some definite shortcomings.


----------



## peakbagger (Oct 24, 2022)

Hydrogen is probably good for transportation but for stationary storage there are lower cost options like flow batteries.


----------



## begreen (Oct 24, 2022)

Yes, good for trucking but for large-scale grid system backup, there are better alternatives. I am watching ESS and their iron flow battery. It has the right combination of low cost, durability, and just about unlimited cycles, and it uses abundant resources that are recyclable. We will need many terawatts of storage capacity to make the grid carbon neutral. This technology appears to be one of the best solutions.


----------



## EbS-P (Oct 24, 2022)

Toyota bZ3 Compact Electric Sedan Bows In China With 372-Mile Range
					

The Toyota bZ3 will be produced in China and sold through the FAW Toyota dealer network in the world's largest car market.




					insideevs.com
				




I want to see production capacity and if/when it’s going to be in the Americas and how many


----------



## woodgeek (Nov 10, 2022)

Some updates....

First:
There is a bit of a scandal brewing about Toyota's first (non-joint venture) BEV: the Toyota BZ4X (or Subaru Solterra)



(and this is not about the wheels falling off, which lead to a 100% recall/buyback for the 6 mos after launch)

While the car has a stated roughly 300 mile range, it is getting a bit over 200 miles in mild usage conditions.  Toyota states that the battery has a 71 kWh capacity (consistent with a 300 mile range with good efficiency like my Bolt).  Testers determined that the useable capacity (which Toyota refuses to specify, but easily measured) is only 62 kWh.  This is consistent with the lower range (combined with disappointing eff).  There is some speculation online that this unusually large buffer on capacity is to make good on the battery warranty.  Obv the larger buffer between gross and useable, the easier it is to maintain capacity into the future.

While similar discrepancies have shown up in other BEVs (the LEAF a decade ago played similar games), this is unheard of in modern BEVs.  BEVs get tested by magazines and new owners and youtubers.... no one sells a BEV wth less than stated range.  Imagine buying the car and getting 2/3rds of the stated range in mild weather on day one ?!?

Second:
Toyota has made a public statement that costs on the BZ4X and follow-on vehicles using the same tech are too high for them to make a profit at a competitive price.  So while they had previously announced that they would be fielding a bunch of BEV models in the next few years (based on this platform), they are now saying that the BZ4X will not be produced at scale, and that they are going back to the drawing board to develop an entirely different new BEV platform!  When that will be ready, and when those cars will launch at scale is currently TBD.

Ouchie.


----------



## EbS-P (Nov 10, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> Some updates....
> 
> First:
> There is a bit of a scandal brewing about Toyota's first (non-joint venture) BEV: the Toyota BZ4X (or Subaru Solterra)
> ...



So they figured out Tesla’s profit margins and can’t compete….


----------



## peakbagger (Nov 10, 2022)

I have always speculated that the Rav 4 Prime was sold at a loss for PR purposes. Production volume is low and once they got them in the pipeline, they started producing a much higher percentage of the higher end models to reduce the hit. Teslas sold for a loss and may still be doing so but Tesla was selling EV credits to other companies to offset the price.  My guess is Ford is doing the same with the Lightning, using the Lightning to get traffic to Ford but selling gas engine trucks to most of the buyers.


----------



## EbS-P (Nov 10, 2022)

Just throwing this out there. 


			Tesla Made 8 Times More Profit Per Car Than Toyota | Carscoops


----------



## begreen (Nov 10, 2022)

Looks like a new 4 gen Prius is about to be announced. Expectations are that the Prime will return, maybe with a larger battery for greater EV range?


----------



## EbS-P (Nov 10, 2022)

begreen said:


> Looks like a new 4 gen Prius is about to be announced. Expectations are that the Prime will return, maybe with a larger battery for greater EV range?


Battery supply doesn’t seem to effect Tesla production. Might other manufacturers. But it certainly would increase cost.  And if EV range was a buyers deciding factor why not buy a BEV.  My dad wants a hybrid just for the range, but the hybrid Sienna I drove last month only got 35 mpg on the interstate.  I don’t think but will pay too much more for a hybrid.   They need compete with the Bolt. And then try a mid size SUV again.  Then  a compact hatchback.


----------



## woodgeek (Nov 10, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> And if EV range was a buyers deciding factor why not buy a BEV.



A lot of folks are nervous about their major purchases.  They don't trust what they hear in the media, esp if they give even a shred credence to the wall of FUD out there about EVs.

Then when one of their friends gets an EV, and the wheels don't fall off, it gets real for them.  We got our first BEV in 2014, and two other families we know got their BEVs in 2015.  Both families have now graduated to Tesla M3s, and I haven't.  Too cheap.    

Lots of people see Teslas or know someone with them, and blanch at the price (or the weirdness of the interior).  The legacy BEVs are advertising for all they are worth... but (1) the advertised models are largely not available yet and (2) the prices are not advertised.   My GF and I were cracking up that all the commercials during the world series were for my car (a Chevy EV) or her phone (a Samsung Flip 4).

When my GF's Mom found out that I got a BEV, the only thing that surprised her was the price, about $35k then, now reduced.  She had heard the FUD that all BEVs cost north of $60k and tuned right out.


----------



## EbS-P (Nov 10, 2022)

Toyota is a behind Tesla’s manufacturing efficiency/profitability.  Tesla just started dropping prices in China as demand slowed.  How far can they drop model 3 prices?  Can they make a less expensive model.  Every design choice was an extreme exercise in cost cutting.  They are no longer using radar. 130$ saved per car.  Times a million cars.  They just increased profits by 130 million a year.   No buttons no gear stalk.  This was not driven by customer focus groups. 

It may be weird not to have a button focused console.  But my drive in Sienna I was so tuned off by all the buttons.  I just wanted to touch the screen just like my phone.  

Subaru can’t be profitable given the US’s competitive labor market but Tesla can. 








						Subaru won’t build electric cars in the US because it can’t compete with McDonald’s wages
					

Subaru said that it can’t build its electric cars in the US because it claims it can’t compete with McDonald’s $20-an-hour starting wage.




					electrek.co


----------



## DBoon (Dec 3, 2022)

I've said this years before, but I still believe it - the legacy Japanese car companies are completely unprepared for the EV future because they are highly engineering driven companies that are in love with refining their existing technologies and making them very reliable. They are loathe to walk away from combustion engines because they are very good at engineering and producing them. Those engines (and other associated pieces of the drivetrain) are very reliable. The interrelationship of all the parts suppliers to the vehicle OEMs is also problematic - the OEMs would have a hard time just walking away from their suppliers and seeing many of them go bankrupt because they have ownership stakes in them and/or it is culturally not ok for them to do that anyways.

Couple that with the fact that employees are loathe to change companies and employers are loathe to lay off employees, along with a cultural preference for employees to work for an established company and you get an industry that becomes very inbred, resistant to big changes and not challenged by startups, at least in their home countries. Japanese companies are also not great at taking advice or input about market dynamics from their overseas subsidiaries - "father knows best" is basically how it goes (yes, there are exceptions, of course). 

Like him and/or Tesla or not, Elon Musk did the US automakers a huge favor by disrupting business as usual and forcing US automakers (and then Europeans) to recognize the coming market shift. To me, it looks like Ford and GM will make the transition to BEVs. Likely Stellantis will not (my opinion). I'm in an industry that sells to the power conversion industry and at a recent technical conference/exposition focusing on drives and power electronics in Detroit, GM was very well represented with technologies, people, space, actual vehicles and technologies ready for market, Ford had about half the presence GM had, and Stellantis had a 10'x10' booth with no furnishings and the standard black and white booth sign you get for free and a pathetic truck frame showing some prototype for a hybrid EV/gas drive train - _and they were trying to recruit engineering talent! _Anyone who is not as far as GM is right now , or close to it, with designs, production plans, plants, people, labs, etc. is not going to make the transition to the BEV future, or if they do, they will be a lesser company than they were before. I'm in a technology industry, and you can't afford to miss a technology shift and expect to be the same company you were before. The auto industry is making the shift to something known and predictable into a higher technology industry, and Toyota is dragging their feet on making this change.

This link highlights a good example of the problem facing Toyota and Honda (and Nissan too, since I consider them the Chrysler of Japan, despite their earlier, but relatively lousy, foray into BEVs, given all the battery management issues with the Leaf) https://electrek.co/2022/11/30/drivers-are-ditching-toyota-honda-gas-cars-for-electric-vehicles/

Yeah, there will be Toyota and Honda fan-boys and fan-girls who will wait until whenever for those companies to get their BEV lineup designed, but there will be plenty who won't wait, and the trickle that started a year ago is going to start turning into a torrent. The trend is probably masked a bit by supply chain issues and the economy, but when market share and sentiment turns against Toyota and Honda it will turn quickly.  I may be wrong, but I think Toyota's market also skews older, so they have a Cadillac-type problem where they are not only going to lose market share due to poor product choices but also due to declining (for them) addressable market. I honestly don't know very many 20-40 year-old people that I work with who are very excited by anything made by Toyota or Honda. 

Will Toyota and Honda survive? Sure, probably. They won't be the same. It took a long time (30+ years?) for GM to go from 50% US market share to where they are today - gross mismanagement and poor quality over many years and not building the vehicles people wanted were all contributors. Hey Toyota, thanks for the Prius, now move on and get going on BEVs - the Prius is a pretty friggin' boring unexceptional driving experience compared to any BEV. I expect that Toyota's market share will start slipping a quarter percent a year and just keep slipping for many, many years.  

Honda will become the small car/car production facility for GM's BEV drivetrains (they are licensing them, from what I recall), as GM seems to have no interest in building anything that weighs less than 5000 pounds and isn't called a truck or an SUV, and frankly, their marketing department seems to have no understanding how to market smaller vehicles anyways. 

I predict that Nissan will be a footnote, maybe Mitsubishi, Subaru, Nissan, and all the European companies Nissan is associated with make a go of it together. Don't know - but for the US market if all those companies basically went away I don't think they would be missed much in ten years. Even Subaru's niche of AWD isn't such a big deal anymore (though I do think they do AWD better than most, and Subaru would certainly be missed more than most). 

Hyundai seems to get it - they likely occupy the spot that Toyota and Honda have today in the US, and China companies probably enter the market as the low-cost supplier (as Hyundai and Kia were 30 or so years ago). 

Just my two cents.


----------



## woodgeek (Dec 3, 2022)

I'm no expert, but it seems that competition is heating up in China, the worlds largest car market (for the foreseeable future).

Since this summer, the adoption rate of EVs in China has reached 40%, in the EU its 20% and the US will pass 6% (close to the all time peak for hybrids 10 years ago).

In China, the market is dominated by Tesla and BYD, and a dozen other smaller startups (also Chinese).  The Chinese govt has a stated goal of wanting to dominate the future GLOBAL car industry, and sees the EV transition as its opportunity to do that.  That is why they have incentivized EVs hard (harder than the EU), developed so much lithium/battery infrastructure, and dumped in a TON of startup money.

Unsurprisingly, there is currently a PRICE WAR going on, and Tesla is doing something that it hasn't done outside China... it is slashing prices to compete/defend market share.  The Shanghai built versions of the Model 3 and Y are much cheaper there than outside China (and have cheaper LFP batteries and slightly shorter range).  Compared to the US market, the Chinese market cares less about long range, and more about the latest tech.

During this price war, Tesla is at that top of reliability and opinion surveys among EV rankings in China.  The startups have poor reliability and poorer fit and finish.  Tesla is aiming to be the 'Toyota' of China... and pulling it off so far.  Their market share has been stable and their quality ratings strong.

Several legacy makers, (notably) VW and also Ford were also selling a lot in China.  Their sales have tanked during the price war (and tech/feature war).

What is going on?  As Uncle Warren says, when the tide goes out, you see who is swimming without any trunks on.  In this case, its COST.  COST in EVs is falling across the board, but some makers are further ahead on the learning curve than others.  It would appear that BYD and Tesla are close on cost, and the leaders.  The startups?  Who knows, maybe they will go poof and their investors will be penniless.  But the legacy makers are not interested in scaling sales at the current Chinese market prices.  They are withdrawing... the conclusion is that at their production its too expensive to play, at least in 2022.

The survivors of the great Chinese EV price war will OWN the low cost space AND have the highest margins for the next few years while global sales soar. Their production volume will give them an even bigger lead on their rivals.  A lot of money is on the line.

Meanwhile, BYD (and other chinese makers) have starting shipping volumes of BEV to the EU at low MSRP.  The Chinese are coming after the German market now.

So, whence all the legacy makers?  

In the US, tariffs and maybe the NTSB will keep the Chinese EVs out of the US for some time (but probably not forever).  The chinese makers would also need to alter their products for US tastes and market (unless BYD decides to compete in the luxury US market?)   GM and Ford will get the US market as their own sandbox to play in while they transition, even if they run a few years behind on the tech/cost curve.  That plus fed bailouts (and domestic incentives like the IRA) will probably keep them afloat.  This makes the IRA incentives for domestic production of EVs look quite timely as a defensive move.

In the EU, many fewer barriers exist, and costs for domestic german BEVs seems to be running high.  Even Tesla has reported that its production costs at Giga-Berlin are higher than at any other plant, and are lagging production targets.   China could leave a mark on the EU legacy makers, esp lower cost makers like Stellantis and VW.  Probably some bailouts and tariffs will be imposed.

And then the Japanese makers look FAR less prepared to handle the Chinese challenge in super-low cost EVs.  They literally tore up all their BEV plans for the next decade a few months back, saying that none of those products would be profitable at projected market prices.  So they are back to square one, making paper plans for new, lower cost BEV architecture... while Tesla and BYD are shipping millions of BEVs at costs lower than Toyota currently knows how to design!  No bueno Toyoda.


----------



## EbS-P (Dec 3, 2022)

Tesla is offering a $3xxx discount on the 3 and Y to move unit’s before 2023.  Teslas profit margins being much much larger than Toyotas and the direct to consumer sales will allow quicker selling off of inventory if needed and allowing greater flexibility if price wars erupt.  

Toyota know exactly how teslas are being manufactured.  They can reverse engineer any component they choose (for a price) but the software will more difficult.  

Teslas Cyber truck was confirmed to have 1MW charging.  Same as the semi.   GM has missed the mark with their EV truck.  Ford did it right IMO. And Tesla will out sell both combined.  Toyota better have a good looking rabbit and a hat.


----------



## woodgeek (Dec 3, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> Tesla is offering a $3xxx discount on the 3 and Y to move unit’s before 2023.  Teslas profit margins being much much larger than Toyotas and the direct to consumer sales will allow quicker selling off of inventory if needed and allowing greater flexibility if price wars erupt.
> 
> Toyota know exactly how teslas are being manufactured.  They can reverse engineer any component they choose (for a price) but the software will more difficult.
> 
> Teslas Cyber truck was confirmed to have 1MW charging.  Same as the semi.   GM has missed the mark with their EV truck.  Ford did it right IMO. And Tesla will out sell both combined.  Toyota better have a good looking rabbit and a hat.


I am sure that makers all do teardowns of their competitors (or have someone else do it for them).  But knowing about some manufacturing tech being used in a competitor is not the same as being able to find a contractor or tool that allows you to do the same manufacturing step, nor does it tell you how they achieved a lower cost doing it, necessarily.


----------



## begreen (Dec 3, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> I am sure that makers all do teardowns of their competitors (or have someone else do it for them).  But knowing about some manufacturing tech being used in a competitor is not the same as being able to find a contractor or tool that allows you to do the same manufacturing step, nor does it tell you how they achieved a lower cost doing it, necessarily.


 I read that other manufacturers have adopted some of Teslas manufacturing innovative techniques like single-piece castings. 
Other car companies are just cherry picking design cues. Changan Automobile in China has just about cloned the Model 3, albeit in a better looking package. 








						China has a new Tesla clone, and it starts at just $26,000
					

Chinese automaker Changan Automobile has launched a new electric vehicle that some are calling a "Tesla clone."




					electrek.co


----------



## begreen (Dec 3, 2022)

Toyota has announced a new generation Prius. It has an available AWD version and the Prime version has doubled the EV only range up to around 50 miles (TBD in real world testing). It sports about 100 more horsepower, more cargo area, 58 miles combined range, and .... (drum roll please) it looks good. I predict that this is going to be a winner for them, especially if they tune the suspension so that it's not boring and has become fun to drive.  I don't think Toyota is out of the game yet. This one looks like a winner for them.









						2023 Toyota Prius | Toyota.com
					

Meet the reborn 2023 Toyota Prius. It delivers an inspiring driving experience combined with eye-catching design, advanced technology, fuel economy, and reliable performance.




					www.toyota.com


----------



## semipro (Dec 3, 2022)

begreen said:


> I read that other manufacturers have adopted some of Teslas manufacturing innovative techniques like single-piece castings.
> Other car companies are just cherry picking design cues. Changan Automobile in China has just about cloned the Model 3, albeit in a better looking package.
> 
> 
> ...


Looks like a Model 3 crossed with a RAV4 to me.


----------



## semipro (Dec 3, 2022)

begreen said:


> Toyota has announced a new generation Prius. It has an available AWD version and the Prime version has doubled the EV only range up to around 50 miles (TBD in real world testing). It sports about 100 more horsepower, more cargo area, 58 miles combined range, and .... (drum roll please) it looks good. I predict that this is going to be a winner for them, especially if they tune the suspension so that it's not boring and has become fun to drive.  I don't think Toyota is out of the game yet. This one looks like a winner for them.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That does look much better than the older models.


----------



## EbS-P (Dec 3, 2022)

semipro said:


> That does look much better than the older models.


Looks the the Kia EV6 from the front and the back is still Prius. Glass roof like the Tesla Y.   New glass roof experience to share.  We have a perforated/mesh sun shade. Driving in the cool morning 5 people in the car.  Defrost on for a minute off for 5.  Water stars running down the inside of the windshield.  That didn’t make any Tesla or Toyota commercials.  I’d it was a flat roof it would have been dripping on us.


----------



## begreen (Dec 3, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> Looks the the Kia EV6 from the front and the back is still Prius. Glass roof like the Tesla Y.   New glass roof experience to share.  We have a perforated/mesh sun shade. Driving in the cool morning 5 people in the car.  Defrost on for a minute off for 5.  Water stars running down the inside of the windshield.  That didn’t make any Tesla or Toyota commercials.  I’d it was a flat roof it would have been dripping on us.


Yes, I can see a little resemblance in front but the back looks nothing like previous Priuses. It's the first time it's gotten a horizontal tail light treatment.


----------



## stoveliker (Dec 3, 2022)

I didn't like the looks of the original Prius. But I did think it looked a bit futuristic. Of course the future has surpassed that look now. I do wonder how much of the aesthetic dislike is from "now" and was not present when they came on the market.

Of course it never was meant for the cocky 21 year old market.


----------

