# The future of heat pumps....



## woodgeek (Mar 16, 2013)

Just saw this....Daikin, a leading maker of minisplits, has purchased Goodman, a leading maker of ASHPs for the US market. For $3.7B.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...r-report-it-s-buying-goodman-tokyo-mover.html

Macroeconomics aside, I think this bodes well for improving ASHP technology in the US. While mini's make a lot of sense all over the world (e.g. high rise apts in asia), americans with their big old rambly houses love them some central air systems and ductwork. I think we will see some mini-split tech incorporated into conventional split ASHPs, and rolled out under the Goodman label. The only product like that now is the high-end 'Carrier Infinity with Greenspeed'.

FWIW, I bought a Goodman ASHP 5 yrs ago b/c they were the cheapest, figuring that advances in tech would make any ASHP obsolete (operating cost-wise) before it wore out. In the end, the unit has been totally solid mechanically, but loses a lot of eff points by being single speed (on/off) and having a stupid and poorly implemented defrost control. By rejiggering the defrost control myself, I boosted the cold weather COP by 30% without touching the mechanicals!

So, I think we are going to see US manufactured units with Goodman compressors, coils and steel, with the electronic inverter tech and controls of a Daikin mini. Hopefully, at a (low) Goodman price point.  And hopefully before my current HP gives out.

Time will tell.


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## Circus (Mar 16, 2013)

Let's hope for the best. I only see a low priced competitor being destroyed. Again.


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## woodgeek (Mar 16, 2013)

??? Its an interesting situation.....the NA market is weird.....huge numbers of split systems (both AC and ASHP), whereas the market overseas is for a ductless minisplit configuration. Do those two markets compete? The two products aren't really interchangeable, and most residential builders are still putting in central systems, and replacements of existing systems are going to be centrals too...mini's are still a niche in the NA market IMO.

The issue is that the NA products are significantly inferior in terms of eff to the Japanese minis. Despite 'competition' among the NA makers (who share major parts suppliers), they are all low eff and have primitive controls. The only thing keeping the Japanese from eating up the NA market is the central/mini format diff).

In my mind, this is as if the whole world was driving Priuses, and everyone in NA was driving Ford 350s from 1972. Is this toyota buying a ford factory in NA and planning to build modern, hybrid powertrain pickups? Or vampire economics?

It comes down to whether they keep the existing Texas factory to build 'central system' hardware with Japanese controllers, or if they are just buying a distribution network to sell minis.


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## sesmith (Mar 17, 2013)

Anything that makes heat pump technology more affordable, more dependable and more efficient is good.  Heat pumps really need to be the main stream solution for heating in heating dominated climates, and probably cooling, as well.  Even ground source heat pumps are usually a no-brainer, when it comes to savings, when competing with oil or propane, but initial cost scares many off.  There should be a huge market and future for drop-in air source units that can be solid replacements for oversized fossil fueled systems, especially as (if ??) the electric grid moves toward more renewable sources.


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## sesmith (Mar 18, 2013)

[quote="sesmith, post: 1409013, member: 12761" Heat pumps really need to be the main stream solution for heating in heating dominated climates, and probably cooling, as well..[/quote]

It seems the Danes are ahead of us here in that:

http://power-to-the-people.net/2013...enmark-introduces-the-brake-on-heating-costs/


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## woodgeek (Mar 18, 2013)

Aaah.  Banning residential oil boilers.  I think that's a ways away (since coal is still aok in the US).  I suspect that the number installed in the US now is near zero in new construction, and the boiler market such as it is is mostly drop in replacements of old boilers.  Can't find any good stats on that though.


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## sesmith (Mar 18, 2013)

And natural gas boilers (or heating?) in new construction.

That's not part of the presidential plan here


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## Highbeam (Mar 19, 2013)

Gotta tell you, I have been scared away from central heat pumps. The longevity of these systems is very short, like 5-10 years, based on actual installations in my area from several brands and from member stories on this site. My coworkers and relatives are faced with bills for six to ten thousand dollars to replace the systems far too frequently. This replacement cost eats into the savings to the point where a plain resistance heater starts looking better.

Let's not get too fancy. First, just make a heat pump that lasts 20 years. Compressors going out, coils wearing holes in them, mystery coolant leaks, etc. Repairing these things often exceeds the unit cost.

What I like about Daikin is that they are the only ones pushing for heat pump water heating using the mini-split technology.


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## woodgeek (Mar 19, 2013)

Agreed. Part of the problem is the refrigerant switch. A new outdoor unit should never cost $10k to replace, but if you have to replace the indoor unit at the same time 'cuz the old one is for the old refrigerant, well, that is a big whack. BTU for BTU, my central HP saves me ~$1200/yr, relative to oil (or electric resistance for that matter). The unit is wrapping up its 5th heating season without a service call or problem. A new outdoor unit should cost $4-5k, The hardware is <~$3k MSRP, and a couple guys can install in a couple hours. If mine failed (completely) tomorrow the replacement would eat most of my $6k savings to date. If it lasts 5-10 more years, not so much.


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## begreen (Mar 20, 2013)

We'll see. Our Am. Std Heritage 16 is wrapping up on season 7. Our neighbor has a similar Lennox system that is now at season 10. Both are going strong. I love the variable speed design of this system (2 spd compressor, dc motor air handler). It's quiet and efficient. So far I have no reason not to expect another 7 years service from it. The year we installed it we went from almost $3000/yr heating bills with propane and purchased wood to about $500 which was mostly for the wood (expensive here). One reason I expect a longer life for the unit is we have little need for AC. The unit sits idle for several months, where as back east it would be pulling full duty except for a few months of the year.

I'll be watching Daikin/Goodman closely. Thanks for the heads up woodgeek.


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## firebroad (Mar 20, 2013)

Highbeam said:


> Gotta tell you, I have been scared away from central heat pumps. The longevity of these systems is very short, like 5-10 years, based on actual installations in my area from several brands and from member stories on this site. My coworkers and relatives are faced with bills for six to ten thousand dollars to replace the systems far too frequently. This replacement cost eats into the savings to the point where a plain resistance heater starts looking better.
> 
> Let's not get too fancy. First, just make a heat pump that lasts 20 years. Compressors going out, coils wearing holes in them, mystery coolant leaks, etc. Repairing these things often exceeds the unit cost.
> 
> What I like about Daikin is that they are the only ones pushing for heat pump water heating using the mini-split technology.


You said it, Highbeam.  I have been doing some intensive research on the replacement of my old baseboard hot water Oil Boiler, and got starry-eyed over the prospect of perhaps replacing the AC unit in the attic with a heat pump.  The mortality, plus the intensive maintenance, along with the cost was a bit much.  I looked into mini splits, but even my little single floor two bedroom house would be a huge investment.  It looks like I will have to have oil again, but at least it will be high efficency, and my domestic hot water will be heated by an electric heater.  
Even though I heat primarily with wood, I am not getting any younger, and there will come a time that I will have to depend on the heating system more.  But I can't see forking over $10,000 for a system that is going to crap out in ten years or so.


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## Highbeam (Mar 20, 2013)

That's a thousand bucks a year just for the equipment. Then you have the electric which while efficient, is not free.


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## begreen (Mar 21, 2013)

Our whole 3 ton system, including air handler, installation and tax was under $10K. I sincerely doubt that replacing the compressor would be that much or even 1/4 that cost. The whole system does not need replacing for just one part. I just checked and we have a 12 yr warranty on the compressor. Not losing any sleep here.


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## woodgeek (Mar 21, 2013)

Sue, what intensive maintenance on HPs are you talking about? I hose off the outdoor unit every couple years and change a $10 filter every few months. With oil I was getting whacked with expensive service calls and paying $200 for an annual cleaning.

When I read the manual about scheduled maintenance on the HP.....there was none.  HVAC techs will want an annual 'checkup'....not needed IMO.


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## firebroad (Mar 21, 2013)

woodgeek said:


> Sue, what intensive maintenance on HPs are you talking about? I hose off the outdoor unit every couple years and change a $10 filter every few months. With oil I was getting whacked with expensive service calls and paying $200 for an annual cleaning.
> 
> When I read the manual about scheduled maintenance on the HP.....there was none. HVAC techs will want an annual 'checkup'....not needed IMO.


With my air conditioner, which I assume is the same sort of set up, I have it checked for freon leaks, have it tuned up and vacuum the fins & coils.  I have to keep the leaves and dirt out of the outside, and the air handler in the attic has to be checked and cleaned.  I am also worried about having a plug-up in the drain of the drip pan, which has not happened yet, but could do some damage to the ceiling.  My attic is pretty small, so it is not easy for me to climb up there and check on a regular basis.  
     Also, I am concerned that the added strain on a unit that will be used both winter and summer might shorten its life.  Any other info you can provide would be helpful in my decision.
    BTW, I change my filter every month, and the boiler at the moment is being serviced by my nephew-in-law, so that is a savings for me.


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## woodgeek (Mar 21, 2013)

I hear you.  In heating mode, there is no indoor condensate, so take that off the list (I worry about mine in the summer too).  I had my outdoor unit installed on 12" plastic legs (not expensive) to keep it above snow and leaves, recommended for a HP. 

I read a study that HPs that get an annual 'checkup' actually have more reported problems and a shorter average life than ones that don't.  Sounds like (prob only a small subset) of HVAC techs 'find things' to fix.

I prob should have my indoor coil cleaned (will prob do it myself) after 5 yrs (!), but I have been using near HEPA filters, hoping it would keep the dust down.

As for the run hours, yeah.  My unit might runs <1000 hours for AC and 3000 hours for heat per year.  Seems like its got to shorten the life of the mechanicals.  Prob doesn't affect the electronics though. But then you do hear about AC units lasting 25-30 years.  Still seems like a HP can last 15.


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## mellow (Mar 21, 2013)

Got 2 Goodman 1 ton units for upstairs and downstairs back in 09,  I am hoping to get 10-15 years out of them with the usage being minimal to none during the winter due to the stove.  They do run quite a bit during the summer however.  I won't say anything more about them because as soon as I do they will break.


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## Highbeam (Mar 21, 2013)

mellow said:


> . I won't say anything more about them because as soon as I do they will break.


 
And when they do, it'll cost many thousands of dollars to fix. 5-10k. This is the sad truth. I've heard it repeatedly from the horses mouth, not a friend of a friend. The high end cost is when the indoor unit must also be replaced.

On equipment like this do you suppose that running it more often might be better than less often? Like a refrigerator that is always on and lasts 10 years.


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## BrotherBart (Mar 21, 2013)

Our heat pump made it almost twelve years. Had a freon leak and had to be topped off every year. Used mostly for cooling but sometimes for heat. When I put the oil filled heaters in each room for backup I told my wife that I was going to get the heat pump replaced because the oiled filleds cost more to run when we need them. She asked how much the HP would cost and I told her around ten grand. She said how long will that pay for the delta in electric use between it and the oil filleds? And two small window units cool this place better and for half the electric that the HP did.

I blew off the HP. That was in 1997.


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## woodgeek (Mar 22, 2013)

Interesting to see if you like a 2015 unit better than the 1985 unit!


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## mellow (Mar 22, 2013)

Highbeam said:


> And when they do, it'll cost many thousands of dollars to fix. 5-10k.


 
That is why it is good to have friends that own HVAC operations.   The entire install for my 2 1 ton units(crawspace/attic) with all the R8 ducting came to $8,000.   That was really the deciding factor that I went with Goodman units,  if they go up I can get them cheap enough that it won't break the bank.


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## begreen (Mar 22, 2013)

Highbeam said:


> And when they do, it'll cost many thousands of dollars to fix. 5-10k. This is the sad truth. I've heard it repeatedly from the horses mouth, not a friend of a friend. The high end cost is when the indoor unit must also be replaced.
> 
> On equipment like this do you suppose that running it more often might be better than less often? Like a refrigerator that is always on and lasts 10 years.


 
A well installed unit should last. The caveat is "well installed". There are a LOT of poor installations out there with poor flare connection, dirty connections, metal filings in the tubing, etc.. That can take years off the life of a system. This is not at all uncommon in the cookie cutter, rush assembly of modern homes. Our system was installed by a meticulous mechanic that took his time, did it right and came back to rebalance the system after it had run a season. I have faith that it will stand up well over time. The system often runs on the low speed windings for the compressor which further extends its life.

My father had an hvac business and I learned in the field a lot of the shortcuts that some installers take. They don't care because the problems from their laziness often don't show up for years. When you compound this with the same issues on the assembly line, you can see how your system gets set up for failure. I remember being out in the field one day with a crappy installer and watching him hacksaw copper tubing because he couldn't find his tubing cutter. Then he flared the tubing with no worry about the filings in it. I asked him about that and he said, no worry, the filter will get it all.


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## lopiliberty (Apr 2, 2013)

BrotherBart said:


> Our heat pump made it almost twelve years. Had a freon leak and had to be topped off every year. Used mostly for cooling but sometimes for heat​


 Same here.  It was installed in 93 when the house was built and has been going ever since but only in the summer.  Its had its share of problems mostly the circuit board that has had to be replaced 3 or 4 times but its just a matter of time before the coils rust and they are not made anymore so you know what that means.  A NEW ONE $$$$$$$.  I really don't see how in the hell you could possibly keep warm with them in the winter.  The air is not warm at all.  Just as well open the door and throw $100 bills out into the wind for all the good a heat pump does


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## seige101 (Apr 2, 2013)

lopiliberty said:


> Same here. It was installed in 93 when the house was built and has been going ever since but only in the summer. Its had its share of problems mostly the circuit board that has had to be replaced 3 or 4 times but its just a matter of time before the coils rust and they are not made anymore so you know what that means. A NEW ONE $$$$$$$. I really don't see how in the hell you could possibly keep warm with them in the winter. The air is not warm at all. Just as well open the door and throw $100 bills out into the wind for all the good a heat pump does


 
Technology has changed on them significantly on the last 20 years. I recently helped a friend install a mini split heat pump in his basement this January it was about 20* outside and it felt like warm air from an electric space heater blowing in the basement. There are no electric backup coils. It was rated at 18000 BTUs down to 15*


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## woodgeek (Apr 2, 2013)

When it is 50°F outside, the air out my registers is ~110°F, 40°F outside, it is 100°F, and when it is 25°F outside, the register's air still feels 'warm' at 90°F.  Below that outside temp God's hair dryer (15 kW aux) turns on and it gets hotter again.

BTUs are cheap enough I can afford to heat the joint to 72°F to keep the wife happy.


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## woodgeek (Apr 3, 2013)

An interesting policy paper comparing oil heat to AHSPs in NE.

http://www.rmi.org/Knowledge-Center/Library/2013-05_HeatPumps


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## Circus (Apr 15, 2013)

Been investigating wall sleeve air source heat pump/ac. After digging I've found the heating mode is often just electrical resistance. There must be an easy way to tell which is which other than comparing the watts used. What are good HSPF SEER numbers?
PS I know my climate is sometimes to cold for eff ASHP but it often isn't to cold.


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## woodgeek (Apr 15, 2013)

It seems american made old tech ASHPs run up to HSPF=8-9, mini-splits from asia appear to run 10-12.  Actual performance would lag those values in a climate north of the mason dixon line.  Near freezing, I would expect COP = 2 for a conventional split, and maybe 3 (??) for a mini.


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## Highbeam (Apr 15, 2013)

Anymore, the idea of "too cold" is old fashioned. In the old days and with old tech equipment this is a real problem. These days many units make full rated output well into the single digits. If you know you live in a cold place then you can oversize the unit and even if your system is only making 50% of rated output with a COP of 2 you are still warm and saving 50% of your money vs. resistance.


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## Circus (Apr 15, 2013)

woodgeek said:


> american made old tech ASHPs​


 
Here, when it's coldish, it's sunny and the solar works well. When it's warmish, it's cloudy and I think the ASHP would work well. What is "old tech"? Any brand or model suggestions? I'd like to just replace a sleeved AC unit and be done with it.


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## woodgeek (Apr 15, 2013)

Sounds like you want a minisplit....I don't own one, so I would let others make their recommendation.  By old tech, I mean a system that looks like central AC, with ductwork....that is what I have, and the efficiency is lower, and it sound like not what you are looking for.


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## begreen (Apr 15, 2013)

Circus said:


> Here, when it's coldish, it's sunny and the solar works well. When it's warmish, it's cloudy and I think the ASHP would work well. What is "old tech"? Any brand or model suggestions? I'd like to just replace a sleeved AC unit and be done with it.


 
Old tech is older compressor technology, typically connected to a central HVAC system via an air handler and ductwork. What you are describing is a ductless system or mini-split. These typically have 1, 2 or 3 interior wall units that look like a wide air conditioner. The new tech in these units have an inverter compressor in the outdoor unit. In your climate I would look at the Mitsubishi Hi-Heat units unless the area is small. If so, a Fujitsu Halcyon unit might do.


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## Seasoned Oak (Apr 21, 2013)

woodgeek said:


> Aaah. Banning residential oil boilers. I think that's a ways away (since coal is still aok in the US). I suspect that the number installed in the US now is near zero in new construction, and the boiler market such as it is is mostly drop in replacements of old boilers. Can't find any good stats on that though.


Anyone investing in a new oil burner either has no other choice or for some reason thinks they can and want to afford heating oil for the next 25 years. Cost is already about $900 to fill a standard 275 gal tank.


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## begreen (Apr 21, 2013)

There are plenty of areas where oil, propane or electric are the only heating choices. (Assuming that they don't want to deal with wood and solar is out). If delivered propane is still significantly higher and electricity is high then oil may be their best option. If oil goes up, propane will too. But many folks are still installing hot water heat. It is usually much more efficient than forced air. It's a tough choice and you are correct to point out that oil will just go up. But it's going to take time to wean ourselves off oil heat. Some folks have little choice.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/b...ortheast-cant-switch.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0


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