# The rise of EVs.... some data.



## woodgeek (Sep 5, 2022)

We have been discussing the EV revolution a bit around here lately, and talking about issues around charging infrastructure, grid reliability and mineral availability.

Several outfits do large modeling efforts to generate forecasts.  Not unlike the old Exxon 'World Energy Outlooks' that always featured fossil demand increasing until 2100.  LOL.

One of these is Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).  They dropped a nice report on the rise of EVs.  The executive summary is free.  It does ask you for your contact info to access parts of the slide deck, but I think you can enter garbage into the form and it will take it.









						EVO Report 2022 | BloombergNEF | Bloomberg Finance LP
					

The Electric Vehicle Outlook is our annual long-term publication looking at how electrification, shared mobility, autonomous driving and other factors will impact road transport in the coming decades.




					about.bnef.com
				




Scroll down to the bottom for the slide deck.

What did I learn?

Past:
-- Production of new ICE vehicles peaked globally in 2017 (!!) and is now in 'terminal decline'.

Current (2022):
-- EVs are 9% share of new passenger car sales on a global basis.  There are 16M on the road, about 1.5 % of cars in service.  Note: less than 20% of these vehicles have a Tesla badge.
-- EVs are 44% share of new bus sales on a global basis.  There are 680,000 on the road.  This is 18% of in service buses globally.
-- EVs are 42% of 2 and 3 wheeled vehicles sold globally.  There are 250M in service (!!).  40% of in service 3-wheelers in India are already EVs.
-- For EV cars, China and the EU's EV adoption curves (similar) are about ~4 years ahead of the US, Canada and S. Korea (who are similar).  Driven by their heavier subsidies.
-- Japan and Australia are about 3 years behind the US/Canada/Korea.  This might be why Toyota/Honda are laggards on EV offerings, or those companies being laggards could explain the slower adoption curves.
-- EVs currently offset 1.5 M barrels of oil per day.  Of this, most is due to 2/3 wheelers.  EV cars only offset about 200,000 Barrels a day currently.
-- Global oil demand from passenger cars, buses and 2/3 wheelers has already peaked... commercial vehicles are propping up demand.

Forecast (before 2030):
-- EV cars are expected to reach 40% of new sales in China/EU in 2025.  The 40% figure in the US/Canada/Korea is predicted for 2029.
-- Peak demand for gasoline/oil for global road transport is projected to form a broad peak in 2027/2028, using conservative estimates for commercial vehicle adoption.
-- High mineral costs due to surging demand will likely push the cost parity between EVs and ICE vehicles to the late 2020s, versus early 2020s as predicted earlier.  Note: this is being factored into all forecasts.

Forecast (after 2030):
-- Complete electrification of road transport will NOT occur by 2050 with current incentives.
-- In a business as usual (BAU) model (assume market forces and current incentives continue but are not expanded), global oil demand for road transport falls from 44 M barrels/day to 34 M barrels/day by 2040 and 21 M barrels/day by 2050.
-- The BAU model predicts that EVs increase global electricity demand by 3% in 2030, 10% in 2040 and 15% in 2050.
-- Complete electrification of road transport would require slightly more than currently estimated global reserves of Lithium, assuming no recycling and current battery chemistry formulations.  The situation for Cobalt is only slightly better.
-- Assuming recycling and newer battery formulations, complete electrification of road transport needs about 40% of currently known Lithium reserves and 20% of Cobalt reserves.  Of course, more minerals are usually found when demands occurs, but development takes more than a decade.
-- Complete electrification would increase 2050 grid loads by only 21%.

Bonus:  For a survey of the green energy and EV mineral issue, Dave Roberts has a post (or a podcast if you prefer):









						The minerals used by clean-energy technologies
					

For the second post in my clean-energy minerals series, I take a somewhat technical detour into specifics. To wit: which technologies use which minerals, and which mineral markets are expected to grow most? (Spoiler: bet big on aluminum and graphite.)




					www.volts.wtf


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## SpaceBus (Sep 5, 2022)

I'm 100% certain recycling infrastructure will develop.


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## Dan Freeman (Sep 5, 2022)

LOL. Is that before the country goes down the tubes? Sorry, couldn't resist.


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## SpaceBus (Sep 5, 2022)

Dan Freeman said:


> LOL. Is that before the country goes down the tubes? Sorry, couldn't resist.


Find a news broadcast from any year, the country is always going down the tubes. It sells ad spaces.


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## Ashful (Sep 6, 2022)

SpaceBus said:


> Find a news broadcast from any year, the country is always going down the tubes. It sells ad spaces.


For an entertaining look at this, read some of the correspondence between Adams and Jefferson, in their later years.  Summary:  "kids, these days."



woodgeek said:


> -- High mineral costs due to surging demand will likely push the cost parity between EVs and ICE vehicles to the late 2020s, versus early 2020s as predicted earlier.


This is the single most important point, IMO.  Although the current trends are impressive, the masses vote and buy on their wallets.


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## begreen (Sep 6, 2022)

SpaceBus said:


> I'm 100% certain recycling infrastructure will develop.


Agreed, it's a necessity of design in Europe. I have already invested in one company laying the groundwork for this. There are several and more are bound to arise. 

In other news, in Switzerland this year they are testing bidirectional charging with cars as a power bank in a 50 EV project. 








						Mobility is testing dozens of electric cars as power banks | Switzerland Times
					

Project launched in Bern Mobility is testing dozens of electric cars as power banks The first major technology test with dozens of electric cars as possible power banks has started…




					switzerlandtimes.ch


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## brenndatomu (Sep 6, 2022)

Nothing like plugging the car in to top off for a trip and then come out only to find the tank instead empty becuase the utility needed mo powah!


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## stoveliker (Sep 6, 2022)

I think that that is a non-issue. Or at least it should be.
1. I would expect a notification when the utility wants power.
2. I think one should (will!) have a "veto" for cases when the utility wants power. Obviously this could have financial consequences (reduced pay-out, not only because less kWhs are delivered, but also because  - well, because as a utility I would set up a contract like that).

I think the system will be "mo powah" and money to the owner of the battery, as they can (should be able to) override what the utility requests.


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## brenndatomu (Sep 6, 2022)

I would also expect to be able to veto their request...but knowing how busy things get right before a trip...I could see forgetting to toggle that feature off (if its normally on) too


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## begreen (Sep 6, 2022)

brenndatomu said:


> Nothing like plugging the car in to top off for a trip and then come out only to find the tank instead empty becuase the utility needed mo powah!


Why would it work that way? It's not automatic. The user opts in for this to happen and programs when the car needs to be fully charged to make whatever journey is next planned, be it heading home from work, or off on a trip. If concerned that day, just don't plugin to a bi-directional charger.


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## semipro (Sep 6, 2022)

begreen said:


> In other news, in Switzerland this year they are testing bidirectional charging with cars as a power bank in a 50 EV project.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


After reading the summary provided by @woodgeek  (thanks for doing that BTW) I wondered how distributed renewable generation, and in particular, residential PV would play into the projections cited.  I think that those driving EVs will be more inclined to generate power at home.

There seems to be a disconnect between producing power at home during the day and driving an EV to work where charging infrastructure is likely very limited and potentially expensive when compared to at-home generation.   The alternative is to buy an EV with sufficient range to get you to work and then home again and to charge at night when the sun isn't shining.

It seems to me that real gains on both PV and EV implementation will likely be dependent upon either:
a) Available workplace charging debited against home generation production (rather than paying retail) I don't see the financial incentive for this BTW.
b) Grid storage (which we all know is sorely needed).  Home storage would also work but is an expensive alternative.
c) or some hybrid of both

I love where we're headed in general with EVs and other electric adoption (e.g off-road equipment), but I'm still skeptical that advancement of the infrastructure and methods required to support the growth some want will progress enough to prevent some big problems and maybe even an outright rejection of the technologies by the masses.


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## begreen (Sep 6, 2022)

brenndatomu said:


> I would also expect to be able to veto their request...but knowing how busy things get right before a trip...I could see forgetting to toggle that feature off (if its normally on) too


With high amperage DC chargers coming online, the biggest inconvenience might be having to charge up for 15 minutes at the nearest DC charge station, hopefully one along the route.


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## peakbagger (Sep 6, 2022)

The utility pays out money to power producers for "capacity". The producer guarantees that if the utility calls, the power plant can produce a certain capacity of power, if they can not, they have to pay the utility to go out and buy the power on the open market at the time of the power demand. Therefore the plants that accept their annual capacity payments take a big risk if they can not live up to their commitment. This also helps a developer to build a plant as they can count on capacity. One of the big differences with the Texas power market is there are no capacity payments and thus no penalty for non delivery of power. If the freeze up they miss a high grid price but no penalty.

So why not give the EV driver the same incentive/penalty? Pay them a fee to have their battery capacity available for grid support. When a grid demand event is declared, they can veto the grid injection from the EV but they get to pay a penalty to the utility.  I guarantee most consumers will gladly take the money and then raise heck when they have to pay a penalty (reminds me of the recent news on the utility out west that took control of thermostats during a demand issue, great headlines but they were getting paid for that possibility)


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## Ashful (Sep 6, 2022)

semipro said:


> I'm still skeptical that advancement of the infrastructure and methods required to support the growth some want will progress enough to prevent some big problems and maybe even an outright rejection of the technologies by the masses.


Ignoring a likely 2020 blip from COVID (and because I don't have that data), US household energy usage has been on a steady decline, since peaking in 2010.  Thank LED lighting, HPWH's, and increased efficiency from many 1990's appliances due for replacement about that time.  Point is... expectation of infrastructure growth requirements for EV's should be at least somewhat tempered by otherwise-decreasing usage per capita.


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## EbS-P (Sep 6, 2022)

Thanks for posting.  the 2/3 wheel segment just isn’t here (did see one battery cycle fly past a while ago.)


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## Ashful (Sep 6, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> Thanks for posting.  the 2/3 wheel segment just isn’t here (did see one battery cycle fly past a while ago.)


They're going to be a tough sell to that "until your friends see you," crowd.


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## begreen (Sep 6, 2022)

I saw someone on an electric unicycle yesterday on the way home. Strange, but cool. I see some of them are quite sophisticated.


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## SpaceBus (Sep 6, 2022)

I want an electric motorcycle. The cost of ownership would be so low, and the fun/$ ratio would be enormous. Probably too fast for me and I would get into trouble, so I'll need something like a Ural 2WD EV conversion.


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## stoveliker (Sep 6, 2022)

In German cities battery powered scooters sometimes dominate the landscape. Bicycles are a second. (In The Netherlands this is the other way around.)

That is the "2 wheel segment" in Europe. 
I am ambivalent about these as most of this transportation was either walking or bus (for the scooter, and the buses being electric to a large degree too), or human powered bicycling. I.e. this large 2-wheel segment has a large *additional energy usage* component. This is *not* good for energy use and environmental concerns.


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## stoveliker (Sep 6, 2022)

peakbagger said:


> So why not give the EV driver the same incentive/penalty? Pay they a fee to have their battery capacity available for grid support. If when a grid demand event is declared, they can veto the grid injection from the EV but they get to pay a penalty to the utility.


Precisely that is what I meant above.


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## woodgeek (Sep 7, 2022)

semipro said:


> After reading the summary provided by @woodgeek (thanks for doing that BTW) I wondered how distributed renewable generation, and in particular, residential PV would play into the projections cited. I think that those driving EVs will be more inclined to generate power at home.
> 
> There seems to be a disconnect between producing power at home during the day and driving an EV to work where charging infrastructure is likely very limited and potentially expensive when compared to at-home generation. The alternative is to buy an EV with sufficient range to get you to work and then home again and to charge at night when the sun isn't shining.
> 
> ...



You are 100% correct that the current rooftop solar and net metering system relies upon a 'grid battery' that does not exist, except for accounting purposes.  Rooftop PV and net metering can provide some percentage of supply, but it does NOT scale to a 100% renewable system, as it neither handles (nor accounts for) diurnal variation or seasonal variations.  Adding some EVs with fancy V2G capability will not fix that basic problem.

But the main conclusion here is not that we should be skeptical that a highly renewable energy system is possible.  Instead, we can conclude that rooftop solar without storage is not going to be a big player in that future renewable energy system.  Rather, it is a bunch of homeowners deciding to make a long-term, low return, low risk investment and collect some subsidies.  And that is all it is.

Now that PV tech is so cheap, large scale installations by investors are already outpacing rooftop installs and outcompeting them on prices.  Many estimates of solar installed on the grid don't even bother to include rooftop solar, or just add a small estimated %.  So in many favorable locations utility scale solar has already blown past rooftop, and THAT will race up to the point where grid mgmt becomes an issue.

Then, installing new solar without storage (other than rooftop with grandfathered rules) will be less economical due to saturation during high production periods.  Three things can happen... (1) the investor in the large scale solar installation can add storage and sell power off-peak, (2) the utility can just add storage by itself or (3) the utility can pay homeowners to help out by using their EVs for storage or offer TOU rates for load mgmt.

(1) and (2) are using the same battery tech at the same scale.  Presumably BOTH will happen, depending on whether the utility can be bothered (and is allowed by local rules) to install storage.  (3) will happen or NOT happen depending on its cost relative to (1) and (2).

My first guess is that EV owners will use TOU rates to charge cheaply, providing a very valuable demand management resource for the utility, and they will pass those savings onto the EV owner.  IOW, just what is happening in most EV-heavy markets today.  I can buy kWh for under 5 cents delivered for my EV. 

As you point out Andy, in the future, the cheap rates are likely to be when the sun is shining, versus when the legacy nukes are cranking with low demand (midnight to 6 AM as now).  Will EV owners then use their work-provided TOU chargers to save a few bucks, versus charging at home?  Some probably will.  Some won't be bothered.  But none of that issue exists for grid storage (1) and (2).  If EV based storage is not enough by itself (and I have never heard anyone predict it would be).. it doesn't matter.  Grid storage will cover it.

Bottom line:  With most tech, you can do something yourself, requiring you buy a lot of equipment and at the cost of your attention OR you can pay a company to do it all for you, at a cost to them that is lower (bc of scale) than doing it yourself, with them netting a fair profit.

Example:  You CAN make all your own electricity at home, but its $$$ upfront, a lot of work to maintain and costs 3X what the utility charges.

A future renewable-heavy grid is not going to be rooftop + EVs + Tesla powerwalls in every home, and you figuring out what to do if your EV is at work while the sun is shining.   It is all going to be utility scale, and 90+% of users are just gonna plug their stuff in, flip a switch and pay their bills.  Just like today.


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## EbS-P (Sep 7, 2022)

it’s not a single solution problem.  If I could install a a small, say 2-3kw, solar with 5-10 kWh storage as an off grid system to run a 1-2 ton mini split.  (So I have not done any calculation I’m just guessing here.) the EV could be a dump  and charged from off grid system.    Stands to reason this type of system could cut peak residential demand substantially without even being managed by a utility.     If I am running 270 kWh a month to my BEV a My guess is a 2 Kw solar install would be about the right size.  Go to 3 kw and add a heatpump.   Or just grid tie.


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## Poindexter (Sep 8, 2022)

Can I put in a prop for the working poor here please?  My copy of "Solar Power for Dummies" just got here yesterday.  I also got some gas today, just for the data point.

On the one hand, I  pumped 11.703 gallons (of 90 octane Chevron) in 1 minute, 15.71 seconds, today, at pump #3 at the Chevron station closest to my office.  This doesn't include feeding my VISA card to the pump head or fooling with the hoses, just pump time.  I am not sure how many amps that would be on a  220v charging circuit, and I am not going to figure it out tonight, but I bet it is more or less equal to (or greater than) the 100 amp 220volt service that feeds my entire house.

Now picture an ideal case among the working poor.  Picture say a 2 year old and a 4 year old child.  One of the two parents could have earned a bachelors in say accounting, the other could have gone to VoTech to become say an ASE certified mechanic.  Instead of going  on welfare this couple has chosen to stay together, raise their children together, dad is working two fulltime jobs at or near minimum wage, plus a weekend gig, mom is working one full time job (night shift) and grandma is roped in to childcare at shift changes instead of being the grandma she hoped to be.  If your home state did not opt in for the MedicAid expansion under president Barak this family is screwed.  If your home state did opt in, they are one motor vehicle accident away from financial catastrophe.

A few years from today this family is going to have a bottom feeder EV and they are going to have to charge it.  They haven't had more than 1/4 tank of gas in their ratty ICE vehicle since 2007.  If the EV cannot be charged at one or another of the parent's four jobs, game over; the vehicle is simply not at home long enough  to be charged at home.  They are renting housing, if there is a PV system on the roof they are not benefitting from it.

I don't mean to open a can of worms here, but how can we logically and compassionately include the folks that are already busting their collective humps in this inevitable transition?  It is far too late to invoke Acts chapter 15, Elvis left the building four years ago (qv).


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## woodgeek (Sep 8, 2022)

@Poindexter, two things:

I don't want to go down the rabbit hole here.... your concern is admirable, but contrary to popular opinion/intuition, the transition will lower costs to people across the income/wealth distribution.  And it will bring health benefits.

It is very easy for us to spin all kinds of scenarios.  We can imagine coal miners thrown out of work.  We can imagine welfare queens driving cadillacs that never work a day.  We can imagine millions of new permanent jobs building solar farms.  But all those are just stories that don't hold up to actual demographics.  The number of coal miners in the US is less than the number of people working for JC Penney.  There never were any welfare queens.  And building solar farms doesn't create any long-term jobs, except for sheep to graze under the panels.

My knowledge of people with lower incomes (friends and myself when I was younger) is that cars ARE a large part of their budget.   And they are not one car accident away from disaster, they live in fear of a major car REPAIR surprise bringing financial disaster.  Current long range, low cost EVs like the Bolt or the Volt are already lower total cost of ownership TCO than similar vintage and size ICE sedans.  And are much more reliable and lower maintenance.

The new tax rebates on new EVs will push down the cost of new EVs and their resale price, and the used EV rebate will  further reduce the purchase price on those cheaper used EVs. These are still rare in the used market (bc the sales volumes were so much smaller 5-10 years ago).  The used EV rebate has no requirement for 'made in America', it's all EVs.

There is also the issue of environmental justice.  The poor are also living in neighborhoods with much higher pollution, and working jobs with much higher exposure to toxic compounds.  Would you want to live (with your small children) a block downwind of a gas station or a mile downwind of a chemical refinery?  If I go to an urban gas station, I can find a bunch of families doing just that.  Those folks will have 1.5 to 2x the lifetime cancer risk if they live there awhile.  The poor have a much lower life expectancy than the average, due to many different reasons, but air pollution is one.  Look at asthma rates sometime.

I will tell a true story of a friend of mine, a schoolteacher who owns her own small home in a working class neighborhood, and drives a paid off 15 yo Volvo wagon with close to 200k miles.  She earns a good living, nice benes, and pays all her bills.  But is worried the Volvo is gonna crap out, and she'll have to scramble to pay a giant bill, or get a new (used) car with a fat payment.  And then gas was crazy this summer, and she was paying $125 to fill up that tank.  And spending a lot of time at BJ's waiting in line for gas to save a bit.

So after I got my new 22 EV in May, I lent her my 2015 Volt.  I had a 100' 12 AWG extension cord and a spare L1 EVSE in my garage.  She and I set her up with that in 15 minutes, so she could charge at home.   We later got a $50 adapter to share a 240V dryer outlet so she can charge at 3 kW L2 with the same rig.  She says she's saving $200/mo just on gas, probably $150 now that gas is down.  And not having to sit in line at BJs every other week. 

Before the recent run up in used cars, the Volt was worth about $10k on the used market in 2020.  Not $60k.  I think its up to $12k now for who knows how long.  The new $4k rebate on used EVs would make the volt purchase cost $8k in 2023.  That would be well within her budget if she wanted to buy one as her next car.


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## woodgeek (Sep 8, 2022)

brenndatomu said:


> I would also expect to be able to veto their request...but knowing how busy things get right before a trip...I could see forgetting to toggle that feature off (if its normally on) too


Absolutely.  My 22 Bolt is set to only charge midnight to 6AM (during a lower demand period, I might switch to TOU rates after I get more billing data) AND to only charge to 80%  (to extend battery life).

Before a road trip, I have to hit the 'override' button to charge to 100%.  And I have to remember to do so the day before I leave.  If I forget, it costs me an extra 15 minutes fast charging on the road (bc my EV has 'slow' 55 kW faster charging).  With newer EVs, the difference would be closer to 5-7 minutes.


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## brenndatomu (Sep 8, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> With newer EVs, the difference would be closer to 5-7 minutes.


Well, I guess that's not the end of the world then...


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## SpaceBus (Sep 8, 2022)

brenndatomu said:


> Well, I guess that's not the end of the world then...


Yeah, EVs have gotten much faster at charging. Furthermore, if you are going on a long road trip with passengers, you will be stopping every 150 miles or so to use the bathroom, stretch, etc. If you have kids that's a 30+ minute stop, although I'm sure there are families that can do it faster or slower. Plenty of time to add another 150 miles to most EVs, if not even more range.


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## peakbagger (Sep 8, 2022)

I am still looking for somewhere to plug in my level 2 charger on the road for my plug in hybrid. I have found various charging stations both Tesla and non tesla but non are compatible with my Toyota.

The cynic in me is starting to think that facility owners are looking at chargers for "green cred" rather than actually being used for charging.


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## SpaceBus (Sep 8, 2022)

peakbagger said:


> I am still looking for somewhere to plug in my level 2 charger on the road for my plug in hybrid. I have found various charging stations both Tesla and non tesla but non are compatible with my Toyota.
> 
> The cynic in me is starting to think that facility owners are looking at chargers for "green cred" rather than actually being used for charging.


Are there no adaptors to make it work with the Tesla gear? At some point an agency is going to have to dictate a standardized plug/charging arrangement.


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## EbS-P (Sep 8, 2022)

Poindexter said:


> Can I put in a prop for the working poor here please?  My copy of "Solar Power for Dummies" just got here yesterday.  I also got some gas today, just for the data point.
> 
> On the one hand, I  pumped 11.703 gallons (of 90 octane Chevron) in 1 minute, 15.71 seconds, today, at pump #3 at the Chevron station closest to my office.  This doesn't include feeding my VISA card to the pump head or fooling with the hoses, just pump time.  I am not sure how many amps that would be on a  220v charging circuit, and I am not going to figure it out tonight, but I bet it is more or less equal to (or greater than) the 100 amp 220volt service that feeds my entire house.
> 
> ...


It is many of the same people that are hit hardest by climate change which this whole EV transition is meant to reduce. Probably not for the parents or kids but maybe grandkids?    I think you may  find if gas prices stay reasonable a venerable used ICE vehicle market will exist.  One where the average age of a on ICE vehicle get older and older. (Picture of Cuba flash in my head but it’s not going to be that).  With out changes to building code they will not have access to chargers in my opinion.  Subsidies will be a thing.  Small cheap BEV will too.  I fully expect some company will license a Chinese design get batteries for it that make it tax credit eligible and sell it in the US. It won’t be free and and probably more expensive than a 15?year old ICE. The lack of vehicles produced the past two years will be noticeable in the used market for quite sometime.

13 years is not a long time. This is not a prohibition of ICE vehicles.  Companies will find loopholes in rules.   Political winds may shift.  Hang on. We are in for a ride. Good sound policy at the state level will be important.


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## woodgeek (Sep 8, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> It is many of the same people that are hit hardest by climate change which this whole EV transition is meant to reduce. Probably not for the parents or kids but maybe grandkids?    I think you may  find if gas prices stay reasonable a venerable used ICE vehicle market will exist.  One where the average age of a on ICE vehicle get older and older. (Picture of Cuba flash in my head but it’s not going to be that).  With out changes to building code they will not have access to chargers in my opinion.  Subsidies will be a thing.  Small cheap BEV will too.  I fully expect some company will license a Chinese design get batteries for it that make it tax credit eligible and sell it in the US. It won’t be free and and probably more expensive than a 15?year old ICE. The lack of vehicles produced the past two years will be noticeable in the used market for quite sometime.
> 
> 13 years is not a long time. This is not a prohibition of ICE vehicles.  Companies will find loopholes in rules.   Political winds may shift.  Hang on. We are in for a ride. Good sound policy at the state level will be important.



Not clear why you are so pessimistic.  Cheap EVs and PHEVs are already in the used market NOW.  And the price of NEW EVs is still falling, controlling for luxury and range.

All of those new EVs are gonna be used EVs in a few years.


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## peakbagger (Sep 8, 2022)

peakbagger said:


> I am still looking for somewhere to plug in my level 2 charger on the road for my plug in hybrid. I have found various charging stations both Tesla and non tesla but non are compatible with my Toyota.
> 
> The cynic in me is starting to think that facility owners are looking at chargers for "green cred" rather than actually being used for charging.


I spoke too soon, while driving up from Mass today I found an outlet Mall in Tilton NH with chargers that would plug into my car. Over lunch I racked up 3 whole miles of range.  Not sure what the output was as there was no displays just beer ads. My Prime is limited to 3300 watts maximum charge rate (there is a deluxe version with a 6600 watt capability but most at 3300 Watts) Therefore a Tesla station would not buy me much as I would be limited by the cars capacity.


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## EbS-P (Sep 8, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> Not clear why you are so pessimistic.  Cheap EVs and PHEVs are already in the used market NOW.  And the price of NEW EVs is still falling, controlling for luxury and range.
> 
> All of those new EVs are gonna be used EVs in a few years.


With the used EV tax credit the equivalent used  ICE will have to be cheaper


peakbagger said:


> I spoke too soon, while driving up from Mass today I found an outlet Mall in Tilton NH with chargers that would plug into my car. Over lunch I racked up 3 whole miles of range.  Not sure what the output was as there was no displays just beer ads. My Prime is limited to 3300 watts maximum charge rate (there is a deluxe version with a 6600 watt capability but most at 3300 Watts) Therefore a Tesla station would not buy me much as I would be limited by the cars capacity.


At home I charge at my Tesla 3100 watts.  Some month soon the perfect vehicle will arrive on the market.


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## begreen (Sep 8, 2022)

SpaceBus said:


> Are there no adaptors to make it work with the Tesla gear? At some point an agency is going to have to dictate a standardized plug/charging arrangement.


Yes, standardization will help a lot. Note that the charging cable is just that, the actual charger is built into the car. There is a difference in DC charging systems and L2 AC charging systems that work off of 120v or 240vac, the latter being much more universal with early EVs and hybrids. One can adapt sometimes or just plug it into a wall outlet. That said, the next generation will be mostly set up DC fast chargers I think, but they still need to be able to home (or motel) charge so they have an AC>DC converter built in. There is a whole kit of adapters available for Teslas.


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## woodgeek (Sep 8, 2022)

peakbagger said:


> I spoke too soon, while driving up from Mass today I found an outlet Mall in Tilton NH with chargers that would plug into my car. Over lunch I racked up 3 whole miles of range.  Not sure what the output was as there was no displays just beer ads. My Prime is limited to 3300 watts maximum charge rate (there is a deluxe version with a 6600 watt capability but most at 3300 Watts) Therefore a Tesla station would not buy me much as I would be limited by the cars capacity.


I'm really curious, what kind of plug does the Rav4 have?  Not a SAE J1772?


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## peakbagger (Sep 8, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> I'm really curious, what kind of plug does the Rav4 have?  Not a SAE J1772?


The Prime has a standard J1772. The same mall has some with CCS1 cables that is DC fast charger cable, Its looks like the round J1772 but has two additional ports outside the circle. Despite it looking like a J1772 it would not fit my Toyota which does not have DC charging. .


----------



## woodgeek (Sep 8, 2022)

peakbagger said:


> The Prime has a standard J1772. The same mall has some with CCS1 cables that is DC fast charger cable, Its looks like the round J1772 but has two additional ports outside the circle. Despite it looking like a J1772 it would not fit my Toyota which does not have DC charging. .


Got it.  You are not supposed to plug in CCS plugs to J1772 outlets... I think the top part still has the same pilot voltages, but doesn't have the 240V lines connected anyway.  

But usually there are like 100 L2 public EVSEs with a J1772 for every CCS out there.  And most would be more than the 3 kW you want.

You found a dog of an L2 if it gave you 3 miles over lunch, <1 kW.  Yikes.

I think now that most EVs are longer range, the appeal of L2s at grocery stores and restaurants has gone down a LOT.  And with less business, maybe fewer are being maintained.  Now, I think the appeal of L2s is 'destination chargers' where you will be staying for >6 hours... like hotels, campgrounds or amusement parks.


----------



## peakbagger (Sep 8, 2022)

My guess is the charging stations can be throttled to put out lower than max amps.


----------



## semipro (Sep 8, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> You found a dog of an L2 if it gave you 3 miles over lunch, <1 kW. Yikes.


A plug here for the PlugShare app.   It lets you share charging rates, dead EVSEs, when you plan to leave, etc. with others.


----------



## peakbagger (Oct 9, 2022)

500 watt hours per KG https://www.notebookcheck.net/Solid...-stacking-all-cells-in-one-case.660594.0.html


----------



## SpaceBus (Oct 9, 2022)

peakbagger said:


> 500 watt hours per KG https://www.notebookcheck.net/Solid...-stacking-all-cells-in-one-case.660594.0.html


That's quite a step forward in battery tech! It also seems to be a near production-ready product compared to most other battery designs currently in R&D.


----------



## peakbagger (Oct 9, 2022)

Of course anything tagged for aviation is usually very steeply priced ; but in concept its the type of tech needed to get EVs and Plug in EVs into more of the mainstream.


----------



## begreen (Oct 9, 2022)

Note that charging speed drops a fair amount along with range in cold winter weather. Range suffers worse in cars with resistance heaters instead of heat pumps.


----------



## stoveliker (Oct 9, 2022)

begreen said:


> Note that charging speed drops a fair amount along with range in cold winter weather. Range suffers worse in cars with resistance heaters instead of heat pumps.


Which seems like an issue for aviation, being chilly up there and all....


----------



## begreen (Oct 11, 2022)

They're working that out. 








						Alice, the first all-electric passenger airplane, takes flight | CNN Business
					

The world's first all-electric passenger aircraft has successfully taken to the sky.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## stoveliker (Oct 11, 2022)

Then your remark of (non-resistive-heat) winter range for cars is just not valid...? 
It is faaaaaaar colder up there than down on the ground, unless you're above the arctic circle or so.


----------



## EbS-P (Oct 11, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> Which seems like an issue for aviation, being chilly up there and all....


Keeping batteries with in an optimum operating temp range is a sloveable  problem.  They could be kept warm on the ground and I would guess the first planes won’t have more than 2 hours of powered flight time.  Cabin temps will the be maintained by resistive heat??


----------



## stoveliker (Oct 11, 2022)

My point is that a concern was noted (battery performance vs weather). That that concern is far worse for planes (because I'm sorry, but heat pumps at -50 F don't really work, and resistive heat drains too much) than for cars.

On the more positive side, I could imagine a plane that flies on electric energy, but has a little (bio-?) carbon-based fuel on board to keep batteries (and if needed passengers) warm. It would still be a huge improvement in renewable energy use if only the flying was done so.


----------



## SpaceBus (Oct 11, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> My point is that a concern was noted (battery performance vs weather). That that concern is far worse for planes (because I'm sorry, but heat pumps at -50 F don't really work, and resistive heat drains too much) than for cars.
> 
> On the more positive side, I could imagine a plane that flies on electric energy, but has a little (bio-?) carbon-based fuel on board to keep batteries (and if needed passengers) warm. It would still be a huge improvement in renewable energy use if only the flying was done so.


I don't think these electric planes are flying at the same altitude as commercial airliners.


----------



## EbS-P (Oct 11, 2022)

I’m think we will see more of small manufacturers using bigger companies tech.  As long as the big dog does not see them as competition.  









						EV startup picks Tesla's motors over Ford's for its first EV
					

EV startup E-Cite announced it would use Tesla parts over Ford electric motors due to compatibility and cost issues, the company's COO said.




					www.teslarati.com


----------



## stoveliker (Oct 11, 2022)

SpaceBus said:


> I don't think these electric planes are flying at the same altitude as commercial airliners.



You may be right. But even at 3000 ft, temps are 20-30 F lower than on the ground.
Moreover, flying higher is actually more energy efficient (which is why planes that can, fly so high). So having them fly lower is a waste of energy. (And even for renewable energy that's wasteful and should be avoided.)
Finally, smaller planes don't fly long distances. And for such distances, other modes of transportation are often far better suited and far more energy efficient.

Point is, for an experiment, a trial, this is fine. But getting even more used to energy wasting short-distance flights is not the best way to deal with this - until cheap and unlimited, carbon-free energy is available. (Which, see fusion, will always be 30-50 years out...)


----------



## SpaceBus (Oct 11, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> You may be right. But even at 3000 ft, temps are 20-30 F lower than on the ground.
> Moreover, flying higher is actually more energy efficient (which is why planes that can, fly so high). So having them fly lower is a waste of energy. (And even for renewable energy that's wasteful and should be avoided.)
> Finally, smaller planes don't fly long distances. And for such distances, other modes of transportation are often far better suited and far more energy efficient.
> 
> Point is, for an experiment, a trial, this is fine. But getting even more used to energy wasting short-distance flights is not the best way to deal with this - until cheap and unlimited, carbon-free energy is available. (Which, see fusion, will always be 30-50 years out...)


They are using electric planes in archipelagoes where there are few bridges and not enough ferries. However, I do largely agree, you shouldn't be taking a flight when it's more efficient to drive. Unfortunately, people take two hour flights on fossil fuel burning aircraft all the time, so why not replace those with electric planes?


----------



## stoveliker (Oct 11, 2022)

I do see your point. I think it is still wasteful (until we have cheap unlimited, etc.)

Even Boston-JFK flights go to 25 000 - 30 000 ft,  The temperature is around -30 F there. So cold. And no heatpump that'll do that either.

Anyway, moot point as I don't decide what gets developed. I'm just taken aback by how much we want to try to keep our current lifestyle going, rather than recognizing there is an issue and BOTH try to improve the use of (renewable) resources AND change our lifestyle to reduce the dependence on resources.


----------



## EbS-P (Oct 11, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> I do see your point. I think it is still wasteful (until we have cheap unlimited, etc.)
> 
> Even Boston-JFK flights go to 25 000 - 30 000 ft,  The temperature is around -30 F there. So cold. And no heatpump that'll do that either.
> 
> Anyway, moot point as I don't decide what gets developed. I'm just taken aback by how much we want to try to keep our current lifestyle going, rather than recognizing there is an issue and BOTH try to improve the use of (renewable) resources AND change our lifestyle to reduce the dependence on resources.


It’s more efficient to fly high. But Heating will change the efficiency equation.


----------



## stoveliker (Oct 11, 2022)

It will mitigate some battery waste. Heating will never change the fact that flying should be done high for efficiency. Simple matter of physics.


----------



## woodgeek (Oct 11, 2022)

As said above, heating is a solved problem: insulation.  If you want, you can insulate the heck out of the cabin, AND the battery compartment.  Both then only need a little heating to 'stay warm', and plenty of cooling when working.  Provided by a glycol loop.

We are just not used to highly insulated CARS.  But they could be built if needed.


----------



## ABMax24 (Oct 11, 2022)

IMO the battery heating issue is a non-issue. Most batteries heat up when discharging at high rates. Add a little insulation to shield it from the outside elements.

Some EV's even have to dissipate some of this heat to keep the battery cool, pump that to the cabin.

Worst case scenario install a small biofuel powered APU, dump the heat into the cabin, put the electrical output to the batteries to extend range. A couple dozen gallons of biofuel would cover most EV plane flights for heating.


----------



## EbS-P (Oct 11, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> As said above, heating is a solved problem: insulation.  If you want, you can insulate the heck out of the cabin, AND the battery compartment.  Both then only need a little heating to 'stay warm', and plenty of cooling when working.  Provided by a glycol loop.
> 
> We are just not used to highly insulated CARS.  But they could be built if needed.


I would like to see how much energy goes to heating vs cooling an EV battery pack.  And see that broken down my location.  1000# plus batter has a good bit of thermal mass.   My guess is more is spent heating than cooling.


----------



## Ashful (Oct 11, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> Keeping batteries with in an optimum operating temp range is a sloveable  problem.


Easy... have the pilots and passengers sit on them!


----------



## Ashful (Oct 11, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> I'm just taken aback by how much we want to try to keep our current lifestyle going, rather than recognizing there is an issue...


At least in my little corner of the world, this appears to be one of the several more positive results of our response to the COVID pandemic.  People made huge lifestyle changes, and at least in my world, MS Teams, Zoom, and other platforms have replaced at lot of unnecessary travel.  In addition, more people working from home, fewer cavernous and inefficient office buildings lit and heated full-time...


EbS-P said:


> I would like to see how much energy goes to heating vs cooling an EV battery pack.  And see that broken down my location.  1000# plus batter has a good bit of thermal mass.   My guess is more is spent heating than cooling.


Remember that heat can be moved from source of loss (motors, power translation) to where it's needed (batteries), meaning that not all heating requirement needs to come at the expense of battery life.

Likewise, when it's -40 outside, passive cooling becomes a pretty trivial matter.  If mass is provided sufficient for storing some heat (eg. air frame), it can be expelled while at altitude.


----------



## stoveliker (Oct 11, 2022)

Mass is generally minimized in planes... And Alu and carbon and epoxy are have a low heat capacity.


----------



## woodgeek (Oct 12, 2022)

Existing EVs already have multiple heater/chiller loops for the cabin motor/inverter and battery, with integration where they can use the heat from one to heat one of the others, and a single AC/chiller to cool any of them (that has to be pretty large to keep the battery cool during DCFC events).   My Bolt has three loops and three reservoirs.  IIRC the Tesla is similar.

Even so current EV designs are optimized for warmer climates, bc that is were most current sales are.  And so battery packs are NOT thermally insulated, and cabins are not thermally insulated.

The Bolt is 'undone' by the control software, which can't read my mind.  In v cold weather, the car will allow the pack to get cold (to save energy/range), but then when the pack is too cold, it limits the DCFC speed.  If the software would allow me to just press a 'roadtrip today' button, it could then use a little more energy to keep the pack warm, and my DCFC would go better in very cold weather.  But it doesn't.
The Tesla software with integrated 'nav' and DCFC/supercharger routing KNOWS that there is a destination requiring DCFC, and keeps the car primed to an ideal temp.  THIS is one reason when the Bolt has slow DCFC bc GM didn't care about getting this control right (which might cost EPA range and thus sales).

HP heaters (putting a reversing valve on the AC) is not super useful, bc they save energy when its a little cold out, but then fail in extreme cold when energy savings are most needed.  KInda a goldilocks solution.


----------



## peakbagger (Oct 12, 2022)

I do appreciate the HVAC mode on my Prime. If I am going anywhere on cold day and the car is plugged in, I just push a button on my Key fob and the cars heat pump goes on and warms up the cabin. Obviously not an option on subzero days but nice down to about 15 or 20 degrees. Anything colder than that and the heat pump does not do much. In that case, the engine starts up quickly and I get heat within a few minutes and have to rough it with seat heaters and heated steering wheel


----------



## Ashful (Oct 12, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> Mass is generally minimized in planes... And Alu and carbon and epoxy are have a low heat capacity.


Eight seconds on Google shows that most commercial airliners have a dry (curb) weight of 31,000 to 127,000 pounds, with even the newest airframes (eg. 777) being at least 50% aluminum, steel, and titanium, by weight.  Seems sufficient to store at least some momentary battery-generated heat during their most demanding phase (takeoff), for expelling just several minutes later.  I see conduction to and from the storage as the bigger challenge, than the storage capacity itself.


----------



## stoveliker (Oct 12, 2022)

Yeah, but we were talking small planes. Not triple 7s.  Those will be a ways out, if battery technology progress is an indicator...
Especially given the poor energy density per mass for batteries, mass will be minimized even more on planes using batteries for energy for propulsion.



There is a reason some Airbus planes are made of composites rather than pure aluminum alloys. Mass.


----------



## EbS-P (Oct 12, 2022)

Ashful said:


> Eight seconds on Google shows that most commercial airliners have a dry (curb) weight of 31,000 to 127,000 pounds, with even the newest airframes (eg. 777) being at least 50% aluminum, steel, and titanium, by weight.  Seems sufficient to store at least some momentary battery-generated heat during their most demanding phase (takeoff), for expelling just several minutes later.  I see conduction to and from the storage as the bigger challenge, than the storage capacity itself.


I imagine the plane would look something like this and be about the same size.   I also think green aviation flue will happen before electric planes.  Maybe even hydrogen. 

https://www.corporatejetinvestor.co...ine-powers-celera-500l-performance-965/?amp=1


----------



## Ashful (Oct 12, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> I imagine the plane would look something like this and be about the same size.   I also think green aviation flue will happen before electric planes.  Maybe even hydrogen.
> 
> https://www.corporatejetinvestor.co...ine-powers-celera-500l-performance-965/?amp=1



Agreed.  But I got a kick out of the opening sentence of that article:

"RED Aircraft’s liquid cooled V12 twin six-cylinder RED A03 engine is the primary reason why the Celera 500L boasts running costs of $328 per hour with a 4,500nm range"

I suspect the author meant to indicate nautical mile, but the abbreviation he used is actually nanometers, with 4500 nm being roughly 0.0002 inches.   That would certainly give some ammo to the BEV range anxiety crowd.    I think he meant 4,500 nmi or NM.


----------



## stoveliker (Oct 12, 2022)

A plane with a four and a half micron range. Now that is science fiction right there.


----------



## Ashful (Oct 12, 2022)

Ah... isn't nerd humor fun.


----------



## begreen (Oct 12, 2022)

peakbagger said:


> I do appreciate the HVAC mode on my Prime. If I am going anywhere on cold day and the car is plugged in, I just push a button on my Key fob and the cars heat pump goes on and warms up the cabin. Obviously not an option on subzero days but nice down to about 15 or 20 degrees. Anything colder than that and the heat pump does not do much. In that case, the engine starts up quickly and I get heat within a few minutes and have to rough it with seat heaters and heated steering wheel


Yes, the Volt lets you do this from an app. It was great on my commute home in winter. I would tell the car to warm itself up about 5 minutes before I arrive.


----------



## begreen (Oct 12, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> I imagine the plane would look something like this and be about the same size.   I also think green aviation flue will happen before electric planes.  Maybe even hydrogen.
> 
> https://www.corporatejetinvestor.co...ine-powers-celera-500l-performance-965/?amp=1


Fasten your seat belts.








						Alice, the first all-electric passenger airplane, takes flight | CNN Business
					

The world's first all-electric passenger aircraft has successfully taken to the sky.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## ABMax24 (Oct 12, 2022)

I'll take one of these please:


----------



## Ashful (Oct 13, 2022)

ABMax24 said:


> I'll take one of these please:



I've seen a hell of a lot of crashed 4-rotor drones, sometimes due to nothing but an errant breeze.  I've also observed the fact that a significantly large fraction of our driving population have no business getting behind the wheel of a car that stays on the ground.  When combined, these two factors don't paint a picture for success.

Hopefully autonomous control of such vehicles is built into the plan.


----------



## GrumpyDad (Oct 13, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> You may be right. But even at 3000 ft, temps are 20-30 F lower than on the ground.
> Moreover, flying higher is actually more energy efficient (which is why planes that can, fly so high). So having them fly lower is a waste of energy. (And even for renewable energy that's wasteful and should be avoided.)
> Finally, smaller planes don't fly long distances. And for such distances, other modes of transportation are often far better suited and far more energy efficient.
> 
> Point is, for an experiment, a trial, this is fine. But getting even more used to energy wasting short-distance flights is not the best way to deal with this - until cheap and unlimited, carbon-free energy is available. (Which, see fusion, will always be 30-50 years out...)


Well, they are also able to get above some weather, it gives them more options to fly through developing weather, and you avoid more critters, not to mention yahoos who fly once in a blue moon.  
Leer jets can fly above many thunderstorms, whereas commercial airliners generally cannot fly above big storms.


----------



## GrumpyDad (Oct 13, 2022)

ABMax24 said:


> I'll take one of these please:



no thanks.
The only thing that helmet is going to do is frustrate EMS when they come to ident his body.


----------



## EbS-P (Oct 13, 2022)

Ashful said:


> Agreed.  But I got a kick out of the opening sentence of that article:
> 
> "RED Aircraft’s liquid cooled V12 twin six-cylinder RED A03 engine is the primary reason why the Celera 500L boasts running costs of $328 per hour with a 4,500nm range"
> 
> I suspect the author meant to indicate nautical mile, but the abbreviation he used is actually nanometers, with 4500 nm being roughly 0.0002 inches.   That would certainly give some ammo to the BEV range anxiety crowd.    I think he meant 4,500 nmi or NM.


That motor is quite impressive. They are using it in the Ag tractor to replace a turboprop


GrumpyDad said:


> Well, they are also able to get above some weather, it gives them more options to fly through developing weather, and you avoid more critters, not to mention yahoos who fly once in a blue moon.
> Leer jets can fly above many thunderstorms, whereas commercial airliners generally cannot fly above big storms.


there is no reason to fly above now that we have weather radar on every plane.   Two pilots died when in good weather they stalled their CRJ at the max operating altitude because the climb was too fast and they lost too much air speed then could not restart either engine because windmill restarts need to happen at 10k’.  (They made some other choice like not choosing the nearest airport).  

Some storms can get really tall.  https://wgntv.com/weather/weather-blog/what-is-the-maximum-height-recorded-for-thunderstorms/ Remember the crash in the Atlantic of a was it an Air France Air bus?  Theirs to fly over/ through and iced up and stalled.  

No way you would catch me flying a personal quad rotor.  You just increased your chances of a crash by a factor of 4.  Can they fly on 3/4 rotors?  

I heard they are thinking of some hybrid solutions.  Extra thrust for takeoff and climb out from fuel. Cruise on batteries.  Seems simple I’m sure it’s not.


----------



## GrumpyDad (Oct 13, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> That motor is quite impressive. They are using it in the Ag tractor to replace a turboprop
> 
> there is no reason to fly above now that we have weather radar on every plane.   Two pilots died when in good weather they stalled their CRJ at the max operating altitude because the climb was too fast and they lost too much air speed then could not restart either engine because windmill restarts need to happen at 10k’.  (They made some other choice like not choosing the nearest airport).
> 
> ...


WELL, yes and know.  And you can fly through storms with a commercial jet.  But the goal is to find the best means to do so.  Obviously you dont want to fly through the worst of it.   
Too many pilots in the industry have a 'gotta get there' attitude.  Being late because you had to deviate course a bit, isn't a big deal.  Having to divert to another airport, or drastically off your waypoints, is frowned upon (although their management will say the safety of our passengers and crew are #1)...That's ONLY because if there is an incident no one will fly that company for awhile, or..ever...until you rebrand as ALLEGIANT


----------



## begreen (Oct 13, 2022)




----------



## stoveliker (Oct 13, 2022)

so, you want us to talk about trains now? 
Good thing they are (mostly, but not always in the US) electric...


----------



## ABMax24 (Oct 13, 2022)

Ashful said:


> I've seen a hell of a lot of crashed 4-rotor drones, sometimes due to nothing but an errant breeze.  I've also observed the fact that a significantly large fraction of our driving population have no business getting behind the wheel of a car that stays on the ground.  When combined, these two factors don't paint a picture for success.
> 
> Hopefully autonomous control of such vehicles is built into the plan.



It's actually 8 rotor, and is redundant, if the top or bottom rotor fails the other can takeover with enough lift capacity to get you to the ground.


----------



## EbS-P (Oct 19, 2022)

Some sales numbers.  








						Here’s how US electric vehicle sales by maker and EV model through Q3 2022 compare
					

2022 has been the biggest year for electric vehicles in the United States on record as automakers go head to...




					electrek.co


----------



## woodgeek (Oct 19, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> Some sales numbers.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The numbers makes perfect sense to me. 

Bolt numbers are up a lot YOY as the battery recall gets worked out... quarterly sales figures (20k) are higher than annual sales figures of the 2017-2019 Bolts (which were about 10-15k/year).  Priced to move.  $12k less than 18 mos ago.  Chevy is giving them away to build brand recognition before Ultium vehicles go on sale at scale.

Tesla continues its up 50% CAGR trend of the last several years.  All model 3 and Y.

Everything else 'better than a Bolt' is up significantly.  Polestar, Mustang, EV6, Ioniq 5

Everything else 'worse than a Bolt' is down significantly or withdrawn from the market.  LEAF, i3, Kona.  Low range EVs need not apply.

The American market wants cabin/cargo space. Range 250+ miles.  And fast DCFC. 150+ kW


----------



## woodgeek (Oct 19, 2022)

If you are unimpressed by the 6% EV sales rate in the US, how about:









						19% Of New Car Sales In Germany Fully Electric, 32% Have A Plug
					

It seems the German automotive market has bottomed out. After growing 3% in August, September brought a solid 14% increase in sales, while plugins grew even faster. Sales of full electric vehicles (BEVs) were up




					cleantechnica.com
				




BEVs are 19% of new car sales in Germany in Q3.  Add in PHEVs and you get to 32%.

Germans really like their cars.  Now they apparently really like EVs.  And they are not a small market like Norway.

And (I'm sure its a coincidence) sales of ICE vehicles are down by double digits in Germany and many other places.


----------



## Ashful (Oct 19, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> Germans really like their cars.  Now they apparently really like EVs.  And they are not a small market like Norway.
> 
> And (I'm sure its a coincidence) sales of ICE vehicles are down by double digits in Germany and many other places.


One of my best friends is a finance manager at Audi in Bavaria, and I had a chance to talk with him last weekend.  Their fuel prices have gone thru the roof in the last six months, due to swearing off their sweet supplies of Russian oil and gas, so it's not any surprise we're seeing spike in EV sales there and elsewhere in Europe.

... and yes, they do really like their cars.  When I worked there in the 1990's, most of their highway system was still unregulated for speed, so there was real value in buying a car that was fast, and safe at very high speeds.  Now the amount of freeway unregulated for speed has been reduced to something like only 30% of their total mileage, but the auto culture has been built over generations.  It will be interesting to see how they adapt to (or more likely resist) autonomous vehicles, as they generally don't even like automatic transmissions.


----------



## EbS-P (Oct 19, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> If you are unimpressed by the 6% EV sales rate in the US, how about:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


How much if this is still being influenced by the lack of ice production due to chip shortage.  I’m seeing more new trucks and jeeps but not at lot on the Honda lot.


----------



## stoveliker (Oct 19, 2022)

How does the chip shortage affect EV production (relative to ICE)?


----------



## EbS-P (Oct 19, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> How does the chip shortage affect EV production (relative to ICE)?


Not selling ICE cars due to certain models being unavailable.


----------



## Ashful (Oct 19, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> How much if this is still being influenced by the lack of ice production due to chip shortage.  I’m seeing more new trucks and jeeps but not at lot on the Honda lot.


If even still valid today, wouldn't chip shortages affect BEV's, possibly even more dramatically?


----------



## EbS-P (Oct 19, 2022)

Ashful said:


> If even still valid today, wouldn't chip shortages affect BEV's, possibly even more dramatically?


Not Tesla. I think manufacturing capacity is the hold up right now for a lot of them.  It certainly could be.  Manufacturers must chose where to install the chips they have.


----------



## peakbagger (Oct 19, 2022)

Hard to make a direct comparison between EU countries and the US. The EU countries have been living with expensive energy since the 1960s as there was minimal domestic production. Public policy has been to subsidize public transport heavily. It is entirely possible to live without a car and still travel extensively. The eastern US may have had that infrastructure pre WW2 with extensive local rail and in some cases trolleys but it was effectively abandoned and replaced with personal cars. The vast majority of US suburban housing stock was built with private autos in mind.  

Talk to any European traveler to the US and they are usually shocked by the overall size of the US. Central Europe is one time zone, the US is four. In the time it can take to cross a western US state a European will have driven through multiple countries. 

Europe also had a big policy shift that the US did not go through. European countries had been encouraging small passenger car diesel usage due to higher efficiency for several decades by subsidizing diesel costs with surcharges on gasoline. Unfortunately emissions out of diesels are higher than an equivalent gas engine and the emmission controls raised the cost of the diesel vehicles and offset a lot of the efficiency gain. This just happened in the last ten years so the Euro car companies were going to have to fundamentally shift their car markets anyhow, so many firms like VW made the decision that rather than go to gas engines to shift to electric.


----------



## Ashful (Oct 19, 2022)

peakbagger said:


> Hard to make a direct comparison between EU countries and the US. The EU countries have been living with expensive energy since the 1960s as there was minimal domestic production. Public policy has been to subsidize public transport heavily. It is entirely possible to live without a car and still travel extensively. The eastern US may have had that infrastructure pre WW2 with extensive local rail and in some cases trolleys but it was effectively abandoned and replaced with personal cars. The vast majority of US suburban housing stock was built with private autos in mind.
> 
> Talk to any European traveler to the US and they are usually shocked by the overall size of the US. Central Europe is one time zone, the US is four. In the time it can take to cross a western US state a European will have driven through multiple countries.
> 
> Europe also had a big policy shift that the US did not go through. European countries had been encouraging small passenger car diesel usage due to higher efficiency for several decades by subsidizing diesel costs with surcharges on gasoline. Unfortunately emissions out of diesels are higher than an equivalent gas engine and the emmission controls raised the cost of the diesel vehicles and offset a lot of the efficiency gain. This just happened in the last ten years so the Euro car companies were going to have to fundamentally shift their car markets anyhow, so many firms like VW made the decision that rather than go to gas engines to shift to electric.


Excellent post, @peakbagger.  I always liked the quote, "In the US, 200 years is a long time.  And in Europe, 200 km is a long distance."  International travel there is like driving between small New England states.

One stat I caught on the news recently was that traffic congestion is up very noticeably in most US cities the last several months, while public transportation (notably regional rail, but also bus) is way down.  The assertion is that people are deliberately shying away from public transportation even more than previously.  There was some debate as to whether that's out of concern for health / exposure, or due to changing / flex work schedules and locations, as the peak traffic has shifted from the AM/PM rush hours to more of a mid-day spread.


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## peakbagger (Oct 19, 2022)

I was listening to a radio show on the local NPR station yesterday about the MBTA (the T) in the Boston region. It's a mix of rail, buses, trolleys and subways and has been chronically underfunded and milked for pork for decades. The current ridership is less than 50 percent that of precovid and once the various government stimulus programs runs out they have fundamental problem that the numbers do not work unless fares are increased dramatically (very politically un popular) or its gets subsidized more from state taxpayer funds (also politically unpopular). They are looking a tens if not billions of upgrades to make the system safe and somewhat reliable but its political third wire in Mass.

GE had made a much-publicized move to the seaport in Boston about 10 years back, they were planning to build big. They currently have 100,000 square feet of space with only 200 people normally inhabiting it post Covid, they announced they are downsizing to a much smaller office. Across the board large firms are trying to dump office space and the group office spaces are shrinking as the demand is not there. As long as there is tight labor market, employees are voting with their feet and finding new jobs with the option of remote work. I knew folks over the years whose commute to Boston was 2 hours one way, my guess is not a lot of folks doing that anymore if they have the option of doing the work from home.


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## woodgeek (Oct 19, 2022)

Yup.  The EU is different.  In the US, the I-95 megalopolis (which runs from VA to Boston) is nearly a match to the EU in terms of population  and GDP per area.  And also has decent long-distance and local train service. The (older) cities making it up, being built before cars, are a reasonable match for EU cities in terms of built environment.  And they have plenty of residents without cars.  If we include Boston, they even speak different languages!   

I take the train to the second biggest city in this 'Europe in America' daily.  Ridership jumped a couple months ago (around the same time commuter car traffic spiked back).  I'd say its more like 60-70% of pre-covid.  My employer has a 1 WFH day/week max policy for salary staff.  I expect ridership to recover fully or close to it.


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## begreen (Oct 19, 2022)

Ashful said:


> There was some debate as to whether that's out of concern for health / exposure, or due to changing / flex work schedules and locations, as the peak traffic has shifted from the AM/PM rush hours to more of a mid-day spread.


It's both. Covid greatly changed commuting habits.


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## woodgeek (Oct 20, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> How much if this is still being influenced by the lack of ice production due to chip shortage.  I’m seeing more new trucks and jeeps but not at lot on the Honda lot.



Given that the global production of ICE vehicles peaked in 2017 during an up economy, its hard to blame the whole decline on covid.


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