# Big Run up in Heating Costs this winter - No urgency?



## peakbagger (Jun 27, 2022)

Every indication out there is this winter is going to be record energy prices for oil, gas and electricity but I sure do not get a of a sense of urgency out there. I would guess someone heating with oil would be prebuying it if they can and natural gas folks would just be doing whatever they can to cut the amount they will use this winter. Our electric utility is doubling the energy cost portion of the bill. 

Is if just that the average consumer is just taking the summer off and the crap will hit the fan this fall when the temps start dropping and the bills start coming?


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## begreen (Jun 27, 2022)

It's the grasshopper and the ant tale. The panic will start in the fall. I expect there will be a lot of activity here with first-time stove owners at that time.


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## EbS-P (Jun 27, 2022)

I’d be playing the oil market right now and not pre buying.   Summer demand will decrease and hopefully the oil prices will back down to mid 90s.?   Just a guess.   If I was on natural gas I’d be coming up with another heating plan.  Or picking up extra work.

 I get the whole just throw your hands up and not care.  If I was still living in my Old Town condo there really isn’t anything I could do.    Get warmer comforter I guess.     I think the place to look might be the wait list for subsidized weatherization programs. 

It’s been a very profitable last two years for many. But the other side of the coin I’m sure isn’t in a better position.   Getting volunteer firefighting departments staffed and trained for the the coming winter will be important as I predict an above average number of chimney fires.


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## xman23 (Jun 27, 2022)

Get ready, there will be panic stove buying in the fall. And all the installers will be booked up.


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## Poindexter (Jun 28, 2022)

I had all my firewood for winter 22/23 stacked in the kilns in early March.  I got oil  delivered in January, 500 gallon in ground tank.  I will probably need about 350-400 gallons to fill the oil tank in November, and a second fill in late Jan/ early Feb 23.

I did just drop $13k on a new boiler and water heater install in May 22 with all the new pumps and sensors and so on, so I am feeling a little short of cash.  Once I have the boiler install under control, I am planning to get the oil tank topped off in August before prices get any higher, but that will only be 150 gallons or so on my 800-1000 gallon annual usage.

I am also concerned about food prices - a big chunk of that is diesel price and I am seeing it on the price of about everything at Kroger.  The wife and I are canning just about everything we can get our hands on this summer.

Another concern I expressed to my kids twice during the late unpleasantness of 2020/2021 is I advised them to refi their student loans while interest rates were low, but they all chose to ride out the student loan holiday and they aren't any of them going to be able to lock 2-3% fixed with 20 year terms.  We just printed too much money in the last two years, interest rates were going to have to go up.  I got about $1700 left at 2% fixed, I was about to write  a check to pay it off when the boiler went out.

The single most important thing I see is if you have variable rate debt either pay it off, refi at zero percent and pay it off before the zero % term ends, refi at whatever fixed rate you can get, or give your heart to Jesus before the bank comes for your hind end. 

Another problem we probably won't see for another year or so is wage creep.  I have 25 years in my profession and an hourly rate to match.  If Arby's starts paying $30/ hr I will be sorely tempted to get off the high pressure merry go round and go make sandwiches.  With no variable rate debt I could live on $30/hr, keep the house, and certainly enjoy my free time more than I do now.  I would have to garden and can, which is kinda fun, and I would need to go get a caribou every year, but it would be a heck of a lot more fun than my current job.

I do think folks who are going to want to start burning cord wood this fall only have another 2-3 weeks to get on a wait list for install, and they should have had their cordwood split, stacked and top covered about a month ago minimum.  I am not sure how much drama I will be able to take this fall, I will likely still be on the high pressure professional merry go round paying off my boiler at zero percent before the term ends; but I will try to stop by every now and again.

To the OP's question, I am not sure if it is ignorance or apathy on the part of the body politic, probably plenty of each to go around.  I can see the writing on the wall, and I would love to be proven wrong, but I think this is going to be whole lot worse than the housing bubble of 2008.  Fuel cost on my Tacoma was 33.9 cents per mile last week.  My employer reimburses 58 cents per mile for work related miles already, and that number goes up to 62 cents per mile on July 1.  But I have a seven mile commute one way to the office, I make more than $40/hr, and I am seeing the fuel price effecting my monthly balance sheet.  I am still buying ribeye and Guiness, but I am not just driving 10 miles one way to Lowe's for a bolt that costs a nickel anymore.


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## Poindexter (Jun 28, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> It’s been a very profitable last two years for many.


It was.  I averaged 55 hours per week in 2020 and 2021.  I paid off a lot of stuff.  I am frontline healthcare, and I am tired.  

There was an article published in Nature 06-23-2022.  Folks who have been vaccinated and boosted (like me) and have a recent infection with Omicron (like me, I made it 27 months without a positive test.  I am pretty sure it was all those trips to the home stores and plumbing supply places for my boiler guy, I just rolled the dice too many times, I tested positive 06-02-2022) have, per the article, extremely limited immunity to Omicron BA.4 and BA.5.  I see no good reason to get a second booster from the currently available first gen mRNA vaccines.  I am still doing hands on patient care. There is no guarantee the next variant will be less deadly than the current ones.  See Delta, qv.

I am going off on a rant here and will report myself, but first I am going to spit it out.  A virus is a tiny little piece of protein.  It does not have self awareness.  It doesn't have emotions.  It doesn't want anything other than to reproduce.  It is not going to consciously mutate to a less deadly form so as to not kill off so many hosts.  Tony knows better, but I have seen even him on camera talking about what a virus "wants."  

There is no facebook or TikTok website all the various viral particles can log in to to talk about their feelings.  They are reproducing as fast as they can, in cells that are getting sicker and sicker as the virus succeeds, and transcription errors happen in the diseased cell.  There is no guarantee the next variant will be anything.  Imagine you are out in the yard turning rounds into splits while you are sicker than snot.  Most of your splits might look just fine, but you are going to make some variants.  Some of your variants will burn just fine, some will be hard to load into a stove, some of them will elicit meaningful colorful profanity from USMC DIs.

I think I have made my point.  First I shall click on 'post reply' and then I will promptly click on 'report post.'  Via con Dios.


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## tlc1976 (Jun 28, 2022)

I got all my pellets at the beginning of June and was pleasantly surprised. Only $5 more a ton than the last 2 years. $240 vs $235. I’ve also got a spare identical stove in storage in case anything major happens to mine, got it for cheap off Craigslist last year.

Hard telling with the propane. I’ll just fill in August since historically that’s been the lowest. I fill once every 2 years since I don’t use it for heat except in an emergency. Websites don’t track propane prices during summer so I’ll just hope for the best. Not gonna call and ask constantly.

I hear a lot of people complaining about prices but don’t see many people doing much about it. Unlike the late 2000s recession, where campgrounds were empty, people were competing for roadside scrap, fixing up and modding junky gas sippers. These days I don’t see any of that.

I’m thankful now that my daughter is on her own, no more 700 miles every 2 weeks for visitation. Just 9 miles one way to work.  She works at Qdoba downstate and brings home almost as much as I do, and I’ve been an engineer for 26 years. I’ll probably never see $40/hr in my lifetime, I make $24. But now I see your field, the pay makes sense.

Also food prices don’t affect me much. Because between my esophagus and digestive issues I can’t eat much. Actual meat, dairy, most bread, sugar, sodium..nope. Then only stuff that will pass thru. I often have just a can of sodium free corn or French style beans. And 65c a can is less than I ever paid for it. Some things are cheaper probably to remain as competitive as possible. With all the recalls on stuff, and the amount of moldy food I’ve seen on store shelves, I’ll stick with usually safe canned/dried/processed stuff.

I got Covid for the first time most likely from my mom who I saw for Mother’s Day. Thankfully I had it not too bad. The 2 JJ shots must have helped, since my dad and daughter had it horrible. She wasn’t eligible yet, and he’s anti. I’m still careful in stores etc like always.


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## Ashful (Jun 28, 2022)

peakbagger said:


> I would guess someone heating with oil would be prebuying it ..


I'm waiting until August to make any decision, see how things are looking in Moscow at that time, but it's likely I won't pre-buy this year.  I usually pre-buy, and other than once (when I lost almost enough to undo the prior 5 years' savings), it usually saves me some money.  But I believe oil prices are peaked right now, I really do expect them to drop during the next 12 months, the period in which I'd be using any pre-bought oil.

The Russian public and oligarchs are miserable right now, their economy is in the toilet, they can't even manufacture their basic needs.  Not just the folks at the bottom of their social hierarchy this time, as is usual for that unfortunate country, now their most powerful oligarchs are losing nearly everything.  The chances of Putin staying in power even another year seem to lower every day, it seems more likely that inside forces will likely remove him from power before the next heating season is half over.  If or when that happens, there will be a groundswell of effort to get those international economic gears turning again.   Remember the 1940's program "food for toys", between the USA and Germany, but this time it will be "food for oil" between Europe and Russia.

The heating oil and gasoline markets are complex, and I won't pretend to have any deep understanding of their correlation to the availability of oil products from Russia.  I'd be interested to hear from others on what they expect the result of a likely change in power in Russia, and subsequent withdraw from Ukraine, might mean to our energy prices.


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## EbS-P (Jun 28, 2022)

Ashful said:


> I'm waiting until August to make any decision, see how things are looking in Moscow at that time, but it's likely I won't pre-buy this year.  I usually pre-buy, and other than once (when I lost almost enough to undo the prior 5 years' savings), it usually saves me some money.  But I believe oil prices are peaked right now, I really do expect them to drop during the next 12 months, the period in which I'd be using any pre-bought oil.
> 
> The Russian public and oligarchs are miserable right now, their economy is in the toilet, they can't even manufacture their basic needs.  Not just the folks at the bottom of their social hierarchy this time, as is usual for that unfortunate country, now their most powerful oligarchs are losing nearly everything.  The chances of Putin staying in power even another year seem to lower every day, it seems more likely that inside forces will likely remove him from power before the next heating season is half over.  If or when that happens, there will be a groundswell of effort to get those international economic gears turning again.   Remember the 1940's program "food for toys", between the USA and Germany, but this time it will be "food for oil" between Europe and Russia.
> 
> The heating oil and gasoline markets are complex, and I won't pretend to have any deep understanding of their correlation to the availability of oil products from Russia.  I'd be interested to hear from others on what they expect the result of a likely change in power in Russia, and subsequent withdraw from Ukraine, might mean to our energy prices.


Look to what OPEC+ is doing as it relates to prices.  I don’t see regime change making a large swing in oil prices.   The damage has been done.  The punishments enacted are unlikely to be reversed.  I don’t see how a negotiated resolution will prevail. Unless 100% of Ukraine is given back and a rebuilding package funded by Russian energy sales is part of it.    

There may be pressure on Russian leaders but there is no opposition to the ruling party just different leaders in in the current party that may have different interests but probably still corrupt by our standards.   Make no mistake this is a return to Cold War era rule and the only thing that broke the USSR up was states wanting independence and willing to give up all nuclear weapons for it.   

Just take for instance the value of the aircraft that Russia has “nationalized” or stolen from leasing companies.  It’s huge.   That will likely be written off as a loss as they have no parts availability to repair and any service records if even kept will won’t be viable for an aircraft to re enter service.  

Demand will drive prices. Can supply keep up with demand?   EV sales will continue to push the narrative with not much real change in demand.  High prices changing habits will have more impact on actual demand.  Oil will be more stable than natural gas unless the gulf gets hit with repeated hurricanes. If playing the market I strongly suggest checking the NHC outlook every two-three days.  Any red blobs or storms headed to the gulf I’m probably buying.  



			Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook


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## EbS-P (Jul 1, 2022)

I’m going to change my wait and see position.  The volatility in the market is really a commonality in everything I’m reading.  It all hinges on Russia.  here a worst case prediction.  I’m probably buying oil in the next 6 weeks. 


			Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
		

. Edit…. JP Morgan could see oil at 380$ if Russia cuts 5 Mbpd 

I think the odds of Russia cutting 3-5 million bpd are really small but…………


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## ABMax24 (Jul 2, 2022)

I think the odds of Russia cutting production are somewhat likely if the G7 pushes ahead with its plans. Russian (Putin) policy lends toward brinkmanship in situations like this.

A scenario exists where Russia cuts oil production by half, cutting off western nations, western oil prices hit $250/barrel (I think $380 is impossible), Russia sells its remaining exports to China & India for a "discount" of $150-$175/barrel, Russia's oil revenues stay constant, and Russia pushes western economies to the verge of collapse due to high energy prices.

I think if we sustain $200/barrel for any length of time governments will step in and force reduced pricing in the oil markets.

All of this reminds me that I need to start hauling this winters firewood home.


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## woodey (Jul 2, 2022)

ABMax24 said:


> A scenario exists where Russia cuts oil production by half, cutting off western nations, western oil prices hit $250/barrel (I think $380 is impossible), Russia sells its remaining exports to China & India for a "discount" of $150-$175/barrel, Russia's oil revenues stay constant, and Russia pushes western economies to the verge of collapse due to high energy prices.


I would be interested in hearing the opinions of others as to how  the U.S. could respond to help offset prices if the above scenario does come to fruition.


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## brenndatomu (Jul 2, 2022)

woodey said:


> I would be interested in hearing the opinions of others as to how  the U.S. could respond to help offset prices if the above scenario does come to fruition.


Pump oil out of the ground, and process it...the US and Canada have plenty of capacity to take care of our own needs...but DC will just continue to play games, so better tighten your belt, things are gonna get rough.


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## EbS-P (Jul 2, 2022)

woodey said:


> I would be interested in hearing the opinions of others as to how  the U.S. could respond to help offset prices if the above scenario does come to fruition.


I think we are pretty subservient to OPEC.  We could enact price caps but it will be above record high prices I think and would require international support.  China and India will probably continue to purchase Russian oil so……

Locally I would expect 3 or 4 day a week school and more progressive communities to invest more in public transportation maybe even making it free. 

Look to our past what did we do surround the embargo?   I would say we could manufacture our way out of this with strategic investments in manufacturing but we don’t have chips.  Look how long it takes Tesla to get a new production line up and running.  There is no magic bullet.



brenndatomu said:


> Pump oil out of the ground, and process it...the US and Canada have plenty of capacity to take care of our own needs...but DC will just continue to play games, so better tighten your belt, things are gonna get rough.


If was only that simple.  I’m not sure we have any spare capacity.   And I’m not sure nationalizing oil production would be popular with producers and big oil.   If they could pump more and sell it 100$+ a barrel they would.   It’s a long term game now.   Not sure the cost and timeframe of drilling a new well but with the threat of a recession looming I don’t see many comfortable with assuming that level of risk.


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## peakbagger (Jul 2, 2022)

For  folks who have not been paying attention, the run up in refined fuels is only partially related to Russian issues, the big issue in the US is that refinery capacity, especially in the Northeast is short. There could be tankers of crude and full pipelines of crude ready and waiting in the US and the prices would still be high. The Keystone pipeline could be up and running and it still would not make a difference.  Refineries cost billons to build and most indications are no new ones will get built in the US as every indication is they will be stranded assets in 15 to 20 years. Even if a company wanted to build a new one it is likely that financial firms would not lend the money as they see the writing on the wall. The Northeast lost a refinery in Philadelphia a few years back due to a big fire, if had been through a line of several owners and the final one went bankrupt and its being scrapped. The biggest refinery in the western Hemisphere, Lime Tree Bay got closed down last year in the US Virgin Islands and is being torn down. It had been closed before and then reopened by the last administration, but it was not capable of meeting emissions regulations without major reconstruction.

Folks forget, the demand for air travel dropped so much that aircraft fuel was being converted to diesel during the pandemic. The rule of thumb in most fossil fuel pricing issues is it takes 3 years for things to settle out. Its a lot easier and faster to drill for oil and gas than it is to build a refinery.


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## brenndatomu (Jul 2, 2022)

In the last several weeks I've listened to several interviews with big oil execs (don't recall names, sorry) and they claim we are nowhere near refinery capacity right now...they cited some number (MBD) that we are short of our potential output.
Just so I have this clear in my head @peakbagger , you are claiming that we as a whole (USA) are refining 100% of our current capacity?


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## EbS-P (Jul 2, 2022)

brenndatomu said:


> In the last several weeks I've listened to several interviews with big oil execs (don't recall names, sorry) and they claim we are nowhere near refinery capacity right now...they cited some number (MBD) that we are short of our potential output.
> Just so I have this clear in my head @peakbagger , you are claiming that we as a whole (USA) are refining 100% of our current capacity?


It’s my understanding as well that we are at peak refining capacity.  









						How a massive refinery shortage is contributing to high gas prices
					

Oil refineries have lost capacity over recent years, making it nearly impossible to increase supply and stabilize gas prices at the pump.




					www.npr.org


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## peakbagger (Jul 2, 2022)

I dont have access to detailed data, I do know that refinery's have been shutting down in the US (or nearby) and not being replaced for many years and various reports I have read over the years have indicated that the US was rapidly getting short of extra capacity a decade ago. New requirements for ultra low sulfur fuels reduce thruput and the switch to low vapor pressure gasoline in summer also limits production. So take fixed and shrinking supply of refinerys compared to very rapid swing in demand since last summer and it makes sense to me.

The US would never be at 100% refining capacity as refineries need down time to maintain the equipment, It can get delayed but that just means more downtime later on.

One of members Jan is or was a refinery engineer and he would be the best to comment but last thing I knew he was concentrating on solar kilns.


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## ABMax24 (Jul 2, 2022)

I think we also have to consider that the refinery shortages only amount to so much, I think it's hard to attribute more than 20% of pump fuel prices to refinery capacity. Current oil prices work out to about $2.75/gallon, so that only leaves $1.25/gallon for refining, transportation, retailer markup, and taxes. With say another $1 (20%) to inflated costs from refinery capacity limitations.

We also have to consider we are right in the midst of typical peak demand for gasoline and diesel with most people normally on summer vacation and travelling this time of year, hopefully demand decreases some towards fall and prices become more realistic.

I'm really on the fence here with where fuel prices will go, and I see valid data to support a price trend in either direction. Personally I'm not stocking up on fuel, and after Covid we are sick of being in the house and are planning to leave next week with the holiday trailer and head up to the territories for a holiday. Going to be a $1500 expense in fuel for 15 days, but at this point I don't care what it costs, we're just going.


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## peakbagger (Jul 2, 2022)

It comes down to supply versus demand. Limit the supply of refined products in a particular area and the price goes up. Some entrepeneur figures they can make a buck buying fuel in one area for a lower price and selling it at higher price elsewhere. His profit is added to the cost when delivered. There is currently a shortage of refinery capacity in the Northeast and the price of diesel is higher than the rest of the country as fuel is being shipped from lower cost areas. Of course, there is demand destruction factoring in, for everyone filling up a travel trailer regardless of the cost, there are people that cannot afford the premium and are staying home. This is also an international game, using balance of trade. The country with a strong currency can buy fuel away from another country with weaker currency.


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## begreen (Jul 3, 2022)

peakbagger said:


> This is also an international game, using balance of trade. The country with a strong currency can buy fuel away from another country with weaker currency.


This is definitely an international game.  The global supply is short due to OPEC and Russia and US petroleum companies sell to the higher-priced markets for greater profits. Meanwhile, US consumption is climbing again.
The United States was a total petroleum net exporter in 2020 and 2021​In 2021, the United States exported about 8.63 million barrels per day (b/d) and imported about 8.47 million b/d of petroleum,1 making the United States an annual total petroleum net exporter for the second year in a row since at least 1949.





						Oil imports and exports - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
					

U.S. crude oil imports sources including OPEC and Persian Gulf, and top five source countries of U.S. oil imports and destinations of U.S. crude oil exports.




					www.eia.gov


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## peakbagger (Jul 3, 2022)

No doubt that it's also an OPEC plus FU for the US flooding the market a few years ago upsetting the apple cart.


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## EbS-P (Jul 3, 2022)

peakbagger said:


> No doubt that it's also an OPEC plus FU for the US flooding the market a few years ago upsetting the apple cart.


Do you think they are sandbagging their extra capacity?  From what I gather they are claiming not to have much extra capacity and the reports seem credible based on previous record production numbers.


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## begreen (Jul 3, 2022)

Oil and gas are globally priced commodities. The overseas demands are high due to shortages created by OPEC and the Ukraine war. People don't want to hear it but in this situation, there is little the US can do to affect global prices. If one wants to point a finger, it should be at Putin and the crown prince.


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## ABMax24 (Jul 3, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> Do you think they are sandbagging their extra capacity?  From what I gather they are claiming not to have much extra capacity and the reports seem credible based on previous record production numbers.



Most OPEC+ countries have failed to meet their quotas repeatedly since the beginning of the year, 14 out of the 18 with quotas to be exact.

Many of the issues are technical in nature, that should be resolved in the short term. But others are simply due to not enough production capacity to meet these quotas.

While other countries like the UAE have extra capacity available but are stymied by OPEC+ quotas. This is an issue to keep an eye on, as both Saudi (which wants to keep the current UAE quota) and the UAE aren't backing down, and could lead to some breakdown of OPEC+. Saudi also has extra capacity, but for them it's more profitable to produce less oil, but at a higher price.

Politics is also involved, current US sanctions on Iran have stymied production there, and Venezuala depends on Iranian Condensate to dilute their heavy oil for processing and shipment, which has also led to a reduction in production in Venezuela. Saudi US relations are in the toilet too, the POTUS put his foot in his mouth, calling to make Saudi's regime a Pariah. Now he's flying there to beg the regime to open the taps....


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## begreen (Jul 3, 2022)

No crystal ball here, but the situation with Russia is not going away with Putin at the helm.




__





						JPMorgan predicts $380 oil on worst-case Russian output cuts
					





					www.msn.com


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## ABMax24 (Jul 4, 2022)

begreen said:


> If one wants to point a finger, it should be at Putin and the crown prince.



If we want to be truly honest though we should also be looking in the mirror while doing the finger pointing. North American energy policy has contributed to this, the "no drilling, no fracking, no pipelines" policies have hindered domestic production. If North America was a net exporter of energy, a few simple export restrictions would reel in energy prices drastically.

I think this was even discussed in another thread a year or two ago, I brought up the concern of energy independence in relation to shale oil, and the general consensus seemed to be it was better to buy oil from Saudi with their $6/barrel production costs instead of the $40+ for shale oil. That seems to have aged like a glass of milk in the sun.

I really hope we don't follow the same path as we transition to renewables, it's great we can buy solar panels cheap from Asia, but do we really want to continue to place energy costs in the hands of foreign powers? Look at the calamity caused by the shortage of Asian microchips as a relevant example.


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## woodey (Jul 4, 2022)

ABMax24 said:


> If North America was a net exporter of energy, a few simple export restrictions would reel in energy prices drastically.


Wouldn't that be counterintuitive to the goal of what many are trying to achieve?


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## EbS-P (Jul 4, 2022)

ABMax24 said:


> If we want to be truly honest though we should also be looking in the mirror while doing the finger pointing. North American energy policy has contributed to this, the "no drilling, no fracking, no pipelines" policies have hindered domestic production. If North America was a net exporter of energy, a few simple export restrictions would reel in energy prices drastically.
> 
> I think this was even discussed in another thread a year or two ago, I brought up the concern of energy independence in relation to shale oil, and the general consensus seemed to be it was better to buy oil from Saudi with their $6/barrel production costs instead of the $40+ for shale oil. That seems to have aged like a glass of milk in the sun.
> 
> I really hope we don't follow the same path as we transition to renewables, it's great we can buy solar panels cheap from Asia, but do we really want to continue to place energy costs in the hands of foreign powers? Look at the calamity caused by the shortage of Asian microchips as a relevant example.


Unless we heavily subsidize entire products (like semiconductors) which will undoubtedly end up in a WTO dispute (which could have negotiated resolution) we will forever be at the mercy of the international markets.  I don’t see the political will to tackle tariffs again.   International  Shipping costs going up may actually help US manufacturing.

You think any producer would willing want to under price their products.  What ever administration put that through would have a near impossible time in the next election cycle.   

Free markets are really the only answer and once we realize consumption does in fact influence prices give the consumer options.   It’s a king term game and the name of it is peak oil.   We can argue about the exact timing of the peak but really most all of us are going to live through it. 

 Get used to it.  Insulate the crap out of your home.  Get an EV for most of your daily commute.  Get a heatpump that can cover 50-70% of you mr heating needs.  It’s not cheap. Most of the population doesn’t have the 40-50k cash or credit enough to barrow to make those investments.  But for those that do it’s now time to make those investments.   

I’m going to try and get 1000-1500 sq ft of R-30 in the attic before summer is over.  And air seal before that.


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## ABMax24 (Jul 4, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> Unless we heavily subsidize entire products (like semiconductors) which will undoubtedly end up in a WTO dispute (which could have negotiated resolution) we will forever be at the mercy of the international markets.  I don’t see the political will to tackle tariffs again.   International  Shipping costs going up may actually help US manufacturing.
> 
> You think any producer would willing want to under price their products.  What ever administration put that through would have a near impossible time in the next election cycle.
> 
> ...



Yes we'd probably have to subsidize a few industries. The cost of doing nothing could be much higher though, China would never have to go to war with the west, restricting export of a few key goods would cripple the west. Very few products of importance are built without microchips.

I think any political party would get more support if they kept gas prices at $4 instead of allowing them to rise to $8 if oil prices surge, even if this alienated the oil and gas industry. The US economy has always performed at its best on cheap oil, period.


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## EbS-P (Jul 4, 2022)

ABMax24 said:


> Yes we'd probably have to subsidize a few industries. The cost of doing nothing could be much higher though, China would never have to go to war with the west, restricting export of a few key goods would cripple the west. Very few products of importance are built without microchips.
> 
> I think any political party would get more support if they kept gas prices at $4 instead of allowing them to rise to $8 if oil prices surge, even if this alienated the oil and gas industry. The US economy has always performed at its best on cheap oil, period.


I’m am for taking on big oil!  But remember how much LNG we are supplying or hope to supply to international markets.  The market controls needed to set fossil fuel prices is OPEC. And the Saudis control that.   

Is there any major commodity where price controls have work at the national scale in a democratic country?  Milk maybe the only one I can think of that might come close and then it’s not so much a price control to keep prices lower but rules to set minimum prices and guarantee minimum incomes to producers.  WW 2 ration cards??? But today that would just create a black market I think.


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## begreen (Jul 4, 2022)

ABMax24 said:


> If we want to be truly honest though we should also be looking in the mirror while doing the finger pointing. North American energy policy has contributed to this, the "no drilling, no fracking, no pipelines" policies have hindered domestic production. If North America was a net exporter of energy, a few simple export restrictions would reel in energy prices drastically.
> 
> I think this was even discussed in another thread a year or two ago, I brought up the concern of energy independence in relation to shale oil, and the general consensus seemed to be it was better to buy oil from Saudi with their $6/barrel production costs instead of the $40+ for shale oil. That seems to have aged like a glass of milk in the sun.
> 
> I really hope we don't follow the same path as we transition to renewables, it's great we can buy solar panels cheap from Asia, but do we really want to continue to place energy costs in the hands of foreign powers? Look at the calamity caused by the shortage of Asian microchips as a relevant example.


Almost every developed country consumes more fossil fuels than it exports. Canada, Australia, and Norway are the only developed economies that produce more fossil fuels than they consume. If we really want to point the finger it should be at our per capita consumption of fossil fuels. A diet here wouldn't hurt.

Edit: this may already be happening as major distributors are noting that high fuel prices are causing demand destruction.


----------



## EbS-P (Jul 5, 2022)

WTI below 100$ today.  Put it all on black I say!  They house always wins in the long run.


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## Ashful (Jul 5, 2022)

Just got home from the gas station.  $241 and change to fill my 1/2 ton pickup and a few gas cans for the mower.  That's a new personal record for a single fill-up, but not high enough to change any habits... yet.


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## woodey (Jul 5, 2022)

Ashful said:


> Just got home from the gas station.  $241 and change to fill my 1/2 ton pickup and a few gas cans for the mower.  That's a new personal record for a single fill-up, but not high enough to change any habits... yet.


I filled my pickup and  a few cans last week and it cost me a mere $182.


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## Ashful (Jul 6, 2022)

woodey said:


> I filled my pickup and  a few cans last week and it cost me a mere $182.


I think my truck was only $135.  The rest was gas for the zero turn, and a few gallons of diesel for the tractor.

The zero turn mower is my biggest consumer of gasoline, by a long mile.  That says a lot, considering the smallest motor among my three cars is 5.7 liter.


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## Ashful (Jul 6, 2022)

Ashful said:


> I think my truck was only $135.  The rest was gas for the zero turn, and a few gallons of diesel for the tractor.
> 
> The zero turn mower is my biggest consumer of gasoline, by a long mile.  That says a lot, considering the smallest motor among my three cars is 5.7 liter.


Quoting myself now, but I should have added that there are a few new companies making zero turn EV mowers ("EM's"?), but so far I've seen nothing that could compete with ICE's on cost and quality, for a homeowner with a few acres.  They're all way too expensive, and those I've seen have had to go thin on mower deck or other components, in some feeble (but still badly failing) attempt to balance their insane weight.  Their weights are roughly double that of any size and speed comparable gasser, even with the thinner and cheaper decks and frames, which is a serious problem in our part of the country where you're likely to sink your zero turn in mud for nearly half the mowing season.

I did some cost comparisons, and for a commercial operation, they're actually nearing parity with gassers.  This is based on fuel savings and lost hours/days for maintenance, on the (not completely realistic) assumption the EV's will never break or have any down-time.  Unfortunately, the cost savings proposed by manufacturers of the EV mowers still make completely unbelievable claims, ignoring the  actual real-world trade-in frequency of zero turn mowers used in commercial applications.  This behavior may have the undesirable effect of discrediting their claims too quickly for buyers in commercial applications.

I'm starting to see homeowners buy them in the 48" size, despite their cost, which is a good sign, and will hopefully drive more development toward better 60" commercial products.


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## begreen (Jul 6, 2022)

I had to fill up our car after a run around Seattle for errands and dinner.  The cost was 2 hrs of sunshine.  Love the Volt. 
Mowing is our big cost for gas too. I am letting the fields grow longer. We are heading into our dry period and it will go brown soon.


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## vinny11950 (Jul 6, 2022)

I am sure some of you have seen this already, but in case other's haven't.


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## peakbagger (Jul 6, 2022)

vinny11950 said:


> I am sure some of you have seen this already, but in case other's haven't.



Thanks, It would be interesting to list the new capacity added since then. My guess is it would not balance out. 

BTW I ran into a article today with a good news bad news prediction, Good news $65 oil by next year Bad news economy in a major recession.


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## begreen (Jul 6, 2022)

vinny11950 said:


> I am sure some of you have seen this already, but in case other's haven't.


Interesting thread. Didn't the head of Chevron say earlier this year that there would be no new refineries built in the US?


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## ABMax24 (Jul 6, 2022)

Here's some data from the EIA, backs up the loss of 1.1 million bpd of refining capacity since the beginning of Covid.









						U.S. refinery capacity decreased during 2021 for second consecutive year
					






					www.eia.gov


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## vinny11950 (Jul 6, 2022)

begreen said:


> Interesting thread. Didn't the head of Chevron say earlier this year that there would be no new refineries built in the US?


I had not heard that, but it would make sense.  Refineries are long term investments, so I imagine they don't want to invest in something that will quickly depreciate as more consumers switch to electric vehicles.  

One solution would be for the federal government to give them juicy subsidies to keep those plants going.  However I don't know if that is technically possible.  But throw enough money at something and things get done.

On the price of oil, so much of the price swings we see now are just being driven by speculation from big investment funds taking big bets.  I don't really see it as price discovery.  Instead it just looks more like big money chasing returns.  As interest rates climb, those bets look more risky because now there is a more secure alternative to make those returns.  You can see the higher rates already bursting different types of asset bubbles.


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## Poindexter (Jul 7, 2022)

I think Vinny is partly right about big money.  I am a little tiny fish, but with enough in the market to have 5-10% of my portfolio in precious metals.  There are some really really big fish out there with nothing better to do than move their money around between gold and stocks and oil.  And they are buying land hand over fist with their free cash flow.

On the one hand speculation introduces fluidity and allows markets to function, but Vinny is partly right in that some of this is driven by old guys on their yachts thinking they know everything worth knowing and using that knowledge to make enormous transactions instantly.  But the fundamentals also suck.

My fundamental problem is my body is getting old faster than the climate in Fairbanks is warming up.  My wife just started a new job in a new field, that she really likes, about 8 months ago.  We are in a home with a fixed rate mortgage that is great for raising kids, but no good for aging in place.  Our plan is to keep the current house to next spring, and then decide if we are staying in Fairbanks or moving to the lower 48.  By keeping the house our equity is inflating along with everything else.

The number of US dollars in existence doubled during the pandemic.  If you got a mattress full of Benjamins, they are going to be worth half of what they were worth pre-pandemic when this is done shaking out.  If I were to cash out of the stock market today I would look at three things.
1. land   I could buy a flat, ready to build lot in Fairbanks, close to the hospital and close to two grocery stores, close to utilities, with adequate garden space.  It would be one more thing to deal with before we move to the lower 48 if we end up going.
2. Precious metals.  Gold is the classic inflation hedge.  A good suit for a man has cost one ounce of gold since Henry VIII was on the throne.  Silver is primarily an industrial metal, so good underlying demand.  Lead, but good luck storing it and shipping is extravagant.  I looked at buying a small farm in SE Missouri back when I was a bachelor (and had money) so I could warehouse lead in the barn, but decided against.
3. Chinese rimibi.  Not traveler's checks backed by the full faith and credit of AmEx, actual Chinese bills.  Last I looked you needed to drop minimum US$1000 and wait until the banknotes came in the mail to pick them up from your local AmEx office.  If the Chinese ever float that thing holders of actual bank notes backed by the China government will profit.
4. If my home was suitable for aging in place I would do everything I could to make my home island-able and get it paid off.
5. solar  I am looking at what a few solar panels could do for the house we are currently in.  Honestly it seems like the best thing I could do is buy solar panels now, keep them in the garage and install them in the next place if we stay in Fairbanks, or sell them if we move south.

I am probably addicted to/ dependent on oil.  I could bicycle to work (7 miles one way) for a few months of the year.  Keeping a dog team, probably six dogs, so I could commute in the winter months with no oil is problematic as there is no parking or yard space for dogsleds and dog teams at my office.  Even with no veterinary bills, the break even point on a dog team is tricky, and the time commitment is enormous.  I am not sure I could keep 6 sled dogs on my suburban lot without a neighborhood uprising, and there would be veterinary bills.  I could likely get good dogs free at the local animal shelter, and I know three competitive mushers, but the dogs have to eat and need to be worked every day; even if I am riding a bicycle to work, running a small garden and trying to be a Godly husband.

Local most of my electricity is generated by burning coal.  The utility does have a wind farm.  They burn some naptha and some natural gas, but it is pretty much coal.

Cross country skiing 14 miles daily is not happening.

I could get a snowmachine and park in the motorcycle area, but emissions from 2 cycle engines are atrocious.  Bringing groceries home on a bicycle is problematic.  With gas at $4/gallon I pretty much did whatever whenever.  With local gas now at $6/ gallon, a 50% increase, I do plan my trips.  I think this is going to get worse before it gets better.  The main thing I can see that would help would be to get over the red/blue thing and start electing centrists with heads on their shoulders that know how to work as team members.


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## peakbagger (Jul 7, 2022)

Poindexter said:


> I think Vinny is partly right about big money.  I am a little tiny fish, but with enough in the market to have 5-10% of my portfolio in precious metals.  There are some really really big fish out there with nothing better to do than move their money around between gold and stocks and oil.  And they are buying land hand over fist with their free cash flow.
> 
> On the one hand speculation introduces fluidity and allows markets to function, but Vinny is partly right in that some of this is driven by old guys on their yachts thinking they know everything worth knowing and using that knowledge to make enormous transactions instantly.  But the fundamentals also suck.
> 
> ...


Assuming it is still going to snow enough to need one, here is a solution to your winter time transportation issues https://www.taigamotors.com/products/ekko. My guess is you may see more of them offered. For someone like me that likes wildlife, having a quiet way of cruising the woods is quite attractive.


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## EbS-P (Jul 7, 2022)

Fear of recession  seems to be prevalent.  Other than a housing bubble what factors are driving these fears?   Oil is down on those fears (so they say) but this is what I’m not buying the down turn is forecast for late 2023. Inflation is up, I get that, but unemployment is down demand for goods is up.  Birth rate is not falling as fast as it was might even be rebounding.  Corporate balance sheets have been cash heavy for awhile.  

Oil prices are either going up or down and that depends on Russia and the economy. 

 refining capacity will not see meaningful increases IMO.  Government won’t subsidize green house emitters unless climate change deniers take control of government.  

Time to make some choices.  If we really really want to move the gas price down we will change habits.  Live closer to work. Get an EV.  Put your kids on the school bus (pickup lines are one of my biggest pet peeve’s).  Invest in electric busses.   Get a heatpump.  Pellet boiler??  Heat pump hot water heater (even in colder climates) Solar still makes sense and will as long as natural gas prices stay higher.  Adopt very high efficiency building codes.


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## sloeffle (Jul 7, 2022)

Came across this article yesterday.









						We’re heading for a messy, and expensive, breakup with natural gas | Engadget
					

In the UK, it would require almost a year's annual salary to do your bit for climate change and energy security..




					www.engadget.com


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## EbS-P (Jul 7, 2022)

sloeffle said:


> Came across this article yesterday.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Well written. Though I might argue that a house with a condensing gas boiler and insulation retrofits is not the best candidate for energy upgrades.  Reducing consumption was not discussed.  I want to see what the energy consumption could be curtailed to.  Nor was a mini split to provide supplemental heat discussed.  We can’t treat this as an all or nothing process.  Every bit will help.  

 We need to accept to get through this there will be days that we might not be comfortable.  House slippers, hats and fingerless gloves might just need to become normal or more likely, those that can afford increased prices will just absorb the cost. 

I get the sense that the author won’t install a heatpump, I wouldn’t either until system needs replacement or the cost of gas really makes it a good financial choice to switch to electric.


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## sloeffle (Jul 7, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> Reducing consumption was not discussed. I want to see what the energy consumption could be curtailed to.


Most folks don't generally discuss that because that means they would need to change how they live. People "fall into a groove" on how they like to live and don't want to change their lifestyle. 

From a personal perspective I swapped out a standard electric hot water heater for a HPHW. That greatly lowered my electric consumption but I realized after a week or so, back to back showers after my ex-wife ( hers were scalding hot ) were a no go. I learned real fast to give it a few hours. At that time, it saved me roughly $50 a month so it was well worth the inconvenience.



EbS-P said:


> I get the sense that the author won’t install a heatpump, I wouldn’t either until system needs replacement or the cost of gas really makes it a good financial choice to switch to electric.


I agree fully.


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## peakbagger (Jul 7, 2022)

The trick is in many cases for folks to look at life cycle costs. The American consumer has been trained to look at first cost of energy using appliances instead of the life cycle cost that take into account how long it is going to last and how much energy does it use over its life.  The Energy Star program has been quite successful in raising overall energy efficiency, but I still expect the typical consumer would rather get an optional icemaker than pay a bit more for a refrigerator that is more efficient.


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## begreen (Jul 7, 2022)

peakbagger said:


> The Energy Star program has been quite successful in raising overall energy efficiency, but I still expect the typical consumer would rather get an optional icemaker than pay a bit more for a refrigerator that is more efficient.


Energy Star is one thing, but reliability is another. We upgraded to ES appliances in 2010-2012, but I checked repair records first. A friend bought a Samsung refrig at the same time we got our GE, both the same design. Within 2 yrs they were having the Samsung serviced. 10 yrs later and the GE has been flawless.


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## Poindexter (Jul 7, 2022)

I do think life cycle cost is an important thing to look at.  Not just energy consuming things like cars, but also landfill choking items like furniture, curtains and carpeting.  Clothing.

As our particle board furniture with the plastic veneer layer furniture wears out, I am replacing with home made hardwood.  When the furniture I build wears out you can at least cook food on it, I am using natural finishes like beeswax and so on.  Carpet we are replacing with marmoleum.


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## vinny11950 (Jul 7, 2022)

begreen said:


> Energy Star is one thing, but reliability is another. We upgraded to ES appliances in 2010-2012, but I checked repair records first. A friend bought a Samsung refrig at the same time we got our GE, both the same design. Within 2 yrs they were having the Samsung serviced. 10 yrs later and the GE has been flawless.



I bought a Samsung refrigerator in 2010 and I had to change a bunch of parts in 2017 just to keep it going.  Tech support is awful, parts diagrams are difficult to read, parts are hard to find, customer support is bad when you ask them how to troubleshoot their product they tell you to schedule a service call.  Occasionally and randomly the control will start beeping for no reason.  But I am determined to get 20 years out of the appliance.


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## Ashful (Jul 7, 2022)

Just bought a Samsung dishwasher, being the only thing available at the time from Lowes, other than real low-end $400 Maytags.  Wanted a Bosch, as I've had real good luck with other Bosch appliances, but they've been having massive delivery problems (like consistently quoting 2 weeks and then taking 5 - 7 months).  Hopefully I have better luck than you, so much of this stuff seems to be luck of the draw, anymore.

But you guys bring up a good point, re: the contribution of energy consumed in manufacturing and disposing of an appliance, in figuring it's net lifetime energy usage.  Personally, I couldn't care less how much electricity any appliance I own uses while I own it, the difference from one to the next is truly not enough to waste a minute of thought on it.  But if the damn thing dies on my five years in, and costs me a week of evenings to repair or replace, I'd pay an extra $500 up front just to avoid that hassle.

I guess in a round-about way, I'm greener than I realized, as reliability and expected lifetime are always at the top of my priority list when shopping any home appliance.


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## EbS-P (Jul 7, 2022)

vinny11950 said:


> I bought a Samsung refrigerator in 2010 and I had to change a bunch of parts in 2017 just to keep it going.  Tech support is awful, parts diagrams are difficult to read, parts are hard to find, customer support is bad when you ask them how to troubleshoot their product they tell you to schedule a service call.  Occasionally and randomly the control will start beeping for no reason.  But I am determined to get 20 years out of the appliance.


My parents gave up on theirs.  Soda stream and ice maker quit.  It’s runs ok. It’s my second fridge now.  I didn’t feel bad sawing a hole in the side.  It really is a piece of junk as  service bulletin said to add a piece of insulation to the back so condensation would not drip down the back to the floor.


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## peakbagger (Jul 7, 2022)

I have a 25 year old Staber washing machine (I have mentioned it before). I paid a premium to begin with but it just keeps on running. Made in USA. Very low electric and water use.  They have not changed the design for decades, they do not have any service firms as they are designed to be repaired by the owner. Only four moving parts (drum, belt, motor and pump), no transmission. The timers and switches are mechanical, and they use a very robust variable speed drive that has been around for decades. The pump has a rubber liner and impeller, if something does manage to get in it, no damage. Stainless drum, no seals. Add a coin box and it could be used commercially (and reportedly is). My guess is it will be running as long as I am around.  

Unfortunately their business model is a tough one, they run forever and the upfront cost is high so a typical consumer probably will not look at them.


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## begreen (Jul 7, 2022)

What surprised me with my friend's Samsung was what a pain it was to work on. The problem was relatively simple, but getting at the part took major surgery.


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## Rusty18 (Jul 7, 2022)

There’s a smoke pen in my Amazon cart, I’ve plugged all the leaks I can find with incense sticks.  Electric bill is less than half what it was when we moved in 4 years ago(all electric house).   I’d like to cut another 20% off if it and think it’s doable just on hvac losses through poor design and maintenance.  

As far as electric usage this winter...I strongly suspect my wife is ready to learn how to run the stove.  She don’t like those big electric bills.


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## ABMax24 (Jul 7, 2022)

Price gouging is really having an effect here, our gas and diesel prices haven't really dropped since oil peaked at over $120/barrel.

Standard fuel price markup is 14 cents/liter, right now retailers are taking about 42 cents/liter.

It's caught the attention of those in government, be interesting to see if anything happens.

Edit:

Here are the Canadian Wholesale Rack prices for fuel in $/liter. Excise tax, carbon tax, and provincial fuel tax is additional to these prices.








						Petro-Canada Rack Price - Terminal Rack Prices
					

If you're interested in our Petro-Canada rack price, here are Suncor Energy's latest terminal rack prices for resellers and wholesale customers. Our rack pricing includes Intra-day, daily, weekly average and twice-weekly average rack prices.




					www.petro-canada.ca


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## sloeffle (Jul 8, 2022)

Ashful said:


> But if the damn thing dies on my five years in, and costs me a week of evenings to repair or replace, I'd pay an extra $500 up front just to avoid that hassle.


All day long.

Since we are bashing appliance makers, I'll take my shot.   Bought a supposed top of the line Kitchen Aid refrigerator a number of years. First one was DOA. Should of bailed out of the deal that point but didn't. Second one died after 6 months, died again a month or so later, and then died again a month after that. Old school repair guy ended up using Frigidaire parts to fix our Whirlpool product. It's been fine since. The $300 Frigidaire fridge I bought off of the floor to use when we were having problems at Lowes is still kicking at the ex's house.


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## sneefy (Jul 8, 2022)

Samsung appliances are known for being terribly unreliable. Their other electronics are solid, so they apparently ride on that reputation.


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## Ashful (Jul 8, 2022)

sloeffle said:


> All day long.
> 
> Since we are bashing appliance makers, I'll take my shot.   Bought a supposed top of the line Kitchen Aid refrigerator a number of years. First one was DOA. Should of bailed out of the deal that point but didn't. Second one died after 6 months, died again a month or so later, and then died again a month after that. Old school repair guy ended up using Frigidaire parts to fix our Whirlpool product. It's been fine since. The $300 Frigidaire fridge I bought off of the floor to use when we were having problems at Lowes is still kicking at the ex's house.


My last refrigerator was a KitchenAid, came with our house.  Compressor failed within 2 years of manufacture, and even though I didn't have a receipt (prior homeowner had that), KitchenAid did honor the warranty to me, based on the manufacture date.  Of course I didn't tell them I wasn't the original owner, that shouldn't matter when you make and sell products that die so fast.

Lifespans of major household appliances started really dropping 20 years ago, and at the time,  I remember feeling it was justified by the (then) low price of purchase.  Sure, my parents' refrigerators lasted 20-30 years, and mine only lasted 10 years... but they were paying two weeks' salary for theirs. whereas I was paying two days' salary for mine.  In the end, the total cost of ownership was similar or better for me, and I didn't have to subject myself to looking at an out-dated 20 year old refrigerator in my kitchen while waiting for the damn thing to earn back its initial price.

But recently, the price of these cheaply-made appliances has sky-rocketed.  Whereas very nice refrigerators cost $800 just 15-20 years ago, now the mid-range is around $2k!  With that, the lifetimes have stayed short, or even reduced further, making for very poor overall value.


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## brenndatomu (Jul 8, 2022)

Ashful said:


> KitchenAid did honor the warranty to me, based on the manufacture date.


I bought a used 8 month old Champion inverter genny and it turned out that it didn't work right at all...I called them and they said send it in for warranty repair...until I said I bought it used and have no receipt...but based on the build date they did send me a new controller (most expensive part on the whole machine according to them) for free, but that did not fix it
After a little research I called them back and suggested that another small electrical control could be the culprit...they agreed and sent me that for free too...that did fix it then, and color me impressed with Champion Power Equipment!
I like to buy USA made when possible, but nobody makes inverter gennys totally in the USA anyways (as far as I found) and this one was used anyways, so I just went with the machine I wanted when the "deal" popped up.
More so on topic...I had a 13 month old Whirlpool fridge crap out just weeks after the 1 year warranty...replaced the bad evap fan motor with an aftermarket motor and its been fine since 2009


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## Montanalocal (Jul 8, 2022)

This is a Youtube segment by a service person that lists good brands and models of appliances that he thinks have the best quality.  There is a listing under the “show more” link when you watch it on Youtube.


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## sloeffle (Jul 8, 2022)

Montanalocal said:


> This is a Youtube segment by a service person that lists good brands and models of appliances that he thinks have the best quality.  There is a listing under the “show more” link when you watch it on Youtube.



When the service guy was here, I asked him which manufacturer was the best. He said "none of them".  At that time he recommended staying away from imported brands because he said parts were hard to get ahold of and you generally have to use that companies support people. He also didn't work on them so I'd say there was some job security there. With that said, I bought a Bosch dishwasher years, and years ago. Never a lick of problems out of  it( knock on wood ).


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## vinny11950 (Jul 8, 2022)

I add that my old 12 year old window mounted Fregedaire 12,000 btu AC just died last Friday (hot day).  It was rated 10 amps.  I found a LG unit of 8,000 btus ($300) that only uses 6.2 amps.  So far so good.  It has kept me cool and, more importantly, it is saving me electricity money.

I guess you can try to make some appliances last, but at some point it is counter productive.

I have a 50 pint dehumidifier in the basement that uses 4.6 amps and I am thinking it may be oversized and a new, smaller and more efficient unit might save me more money in the long run.  $10 a month adds up over the years.


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## brenndatomu (Jul 8, 2022)

vinny11950 said:


> I have a 50 pint dehumidifier in the basement that uses 4.6 amps and I am thinking it may be oversized and a new, smaller and more efficient unit might save me more money in the long run. $10 a month adds up over the years.


What do you have for a water heater? I replaced my 50 gall electric with a 50 gall HPWH and have been saving an average of $15/mo since...some of that is because I don't have to run a separate dehumidifier anymore, the HPWH does it well enough by itself.


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## vinny11950 (Jul 8, 2022)

brenndatomu said:


> What do you have for a water heater? I replaced my 50 gall electric with a 50 gall HPWH and have been saving an average of $15/mo since...some of that is because I don't have to run a separate dehumidifier anymore, the HPWH does it well enough by itself.


I followed your other thread on that closely and I want to do the same thing.  Right now I have an on demand electric water heater that was installed in 2010.  I am angling to replace it with a hybrid water heater in the next few years. when I have the time and money.  And I have to move some stuff around in the basement to make it work.  But it's on my list.  Like everything else, the AO Smith model I was looking at went from $1300 to $1750.  The Christmas before the pandemic I could have bought it for $650 after utility company rebates.  Oh well.


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## begreen (Jul 9, 2022)

Thought for the day from Neil deGrasse Tyson as gas prices start to decline nationwide:

Do the Math:

1962
Gas: 30-cents/gallon
Median Household Income  $6,000
Mileage: 14 mpg
Distance per 1/1,000 of income: 280 miles

2022
Gas: $5.00/gallon
Median Household Income  $75,000
Mileage: 25 mpg
Distance per 1/1,000 of income: 375 miles
We travel farther today on earned money than we did 60 years ago.

Unfortunately, one thing that skews this proposal is how "median household income" has been skewed with so many millionaires and billionaires. It's a case for how to lie with statistics. Not too helpful for a nurse, teacher, or carpenter.


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## Ashful (Jul 9, 2022)

begreen said:


> It's a case for how to lie with statistics. Not too helpful for a nurse, teacher, or carpenter.
> 
> View attachment 296878


Good post, begreen.  But your graph is actually a prime example of how to lie with statistics.

The one percentile individual income in 2021 was $357,552, and the median was $44,225, a ratio of 8:1.  Adjusting for inflation, the ratio in 1996 (the earliest year for which there is data easily available) was $254,590 to $34,130  = 7.6:1.  There is NOT a growing disparity between 1% and medium income, it is actually shrinking.  The numbers don't lie.

I’ll agree the gap may be growing in dollars, dollars are worth less each year.  As a true ratio of income, the trend is toward a decreasing gap.  Your graph is just plotted in a way to make it appear that the gap is growing, but you can clearly see that even by 1985, the ratio of growth from 1980 is greater than the ratio today.


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## begreen (Jul 9, 2022)

That seems to be a question of where the data is pulled from. A quick google check came up with the average "wage" of a top 1%er in 2020 at $823,763. The bottom 90% average wage was $40,085.

The latest available data from the EPI show that in 2020 annual wages for the top 1% reached $823,763, up 7.3% compared to 2019. How much do you need to earn to be in the top 0.1%? A hefty $3,212,486, which is almost 10% more than that group earned a year before. Wages for the bottom 90% rose at a much more modest rest of just 1.7% over the same period, with an average income of $40,085.








						Wage inequality continued to increase in 2020: Top 1.0% of earners see wages up 179% since 1979 while share of wages for bottom 90% hits new low
					

Newly available wage data from the Social Security Administration allow us to analyze wage trends for the top 1.0% and other very high earners as well as for the bottom 90% during 2020. The upward distribution of wages from the bottom 90% to the top 1.0% that was evident over the period from...




					www.epi.org


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## Ashful (Jul 9, 2022)

begreen said:


> That seems to be a question of where the data is pulled from. A quick google check came up with the average "wage" of a top 1%er in 2020 at $823,763. The bottom 90% average wage was $40,085.
> 
> The latest available data from the EPI show that in 2020 annual wages for the top 1% reached $823,763, up 7.3% compared to 2019. How much do you need to earn to be in the top 0.1%? A hefty $3,212,486, which is almost 10% more than that group earned a year before. Wages for the bottom 90% rose at a much more modest rest of just 1.7% over the same period, with an average income of $40,085.
> 
> ...


Interesting.  Not sure if you listen to Common Sense by Dan Carlin, but this is one of his frequent themes:  "How can we debate the meaning of the facts, when we  can't even agree on the facts?"

I'm not sure if my source had bad data, it's very possible.  But I have even more trouble believing 1 percentile for individual income was $823,763 in 2020, that sounds more like a total household income number, if not even optimistic for that.

No horse in this fight, I think the underlying point of your post was excellent, with regard to miles driven per hour of income.  But I do think the graph on income gap was plotted in a way that appears very deceptive, no matter what the actual numbers may be.


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## begreen (Jul 9, 2022)

I know, it's staggering how much of the nation's wealth is now in the hands of relatively few and out of circulation. The numbers are from the SSA so I would assume individual and not household income.


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## peakbagger (Jul 9, 2022)

Most of the wealth increase is in capital gains not wages. Capital gains are taxed low and in many cases are not really taxed at all if passed on to heirs.


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## ABMax24 (Jul 9, 2022)

I think what's most interesting is the near stagnant wages of the middle class. Leaders are quite happy to promise help to the poorest of the population, as long as they don't pay for it.

So the lowest income earners get tax breaks, rebates, grants, social assistance, etc. The rich hide their wealth in corporations, paying tax only as capital gains, if even that. And the middle class are stuck footing the bill for more than their fair share.


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## brenndatomu (Jul 9, 2022)

ABMax24 said:


> And the middle class are stuck footing the bill for more than their fair share


Bingo


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## begreen (Jul 10, 2022)

ABMax24 said:


> So the lowest income earners get tax breaks, rebates, grants, social assistance, etc. The rich hide their wealth in corporations, paying tax only as capital gains, if even that. And the middle class are stuck footing the bill for more than their fair share.


And as a result, the middle class is rapidly disappearing.


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## Ashful (Jul 11, 2022)

begreen said:


> And as a result, the middle class is rapidly disappearing.


I've recently gone through a pretty abrupt change in income and situation that confirmed what I believed before, and shone even more light on some problems I had suspected but never really had direct visibility:

1.  Upward mobility from the middle class is hampered by our tax system.  The truly wealthy, the 0.1%'ers, are not paying nearly as much as the 5%'er's or even the 1%'ers, due to the structuring of our tax code which penalizes salary income at roughly double the rate of investment income.

2.  The upper middle class is paying the bulk of the taxes in this country.  If you're a lawyer, doctor, engineer, or any highly-compensated employee of a company, you are hosed with regard to tax burden.

3.  If you want to escape this, the only path is reducing your Form 1040 income and increasing your profit sharing distributions.  This is usually only an option to business owners.


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## old greybeard (Jul 11, 2022)

Just ordered propane, still 2.29 a gallon. And that’s my camp price, delivered 6 miles off road on top of a mountain. Only getting 80-90 gallons topping off. Thank goodness for fracking,  propane by product. It must not be being sold on the global market. Yet our natural gas is, and prices are up well over 100%. 
And now we’re selling oil from our strategic reserve overseas, including China who supposedly is stockpiling it. 
We are still producing more oil than we use. Selling at global prices, good for my 401k, bad for my wallet. 
Too bad we didn’t have leaders that avoid encouraging the current war, as opposed to a secretary of state who said during confirmation that we would welcome the Ukraine into NATO, and a president who told the Russians that a limited incursion in Ukraine would be okay. Supposedly we voted for this, so live with it.


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## begreen (Jul 11, 2022)

And with that political non-sequitur, another thread bites the dust. Surprised it made it to 4 pages.


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