# Taxing and tariffs



## sportbikerider78 (Sep 11, 2018)

Off topic thread moved to Inglenook


Ashful said:


> Boy, you have a poor view of these noble cigarette companies.  It’s not like they’re knowingly putting out a product that could harm people, or something like that...


Companies provide what people want.  We need to dispel these myths of taxing 'unethical' products like tobacco and alcohol.  There are tons of products we like that can cause us harm in excess.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 11, 2018)

sportbikerider78 said:


> Companies provide what people want.  We need to dispel these myths of taxing 'unethical' products like tobacco and alcohol.  There are tons of products we like that can cause us harm in excess.


Its not about ethics. Its about product life cycle. If companies were made to be at least partly responsible for where their product ends up and how it harms the environment and every living thing along the way, they would make at least a minimum effort to change. No one likes taxes but they do change behavior and lead to innovation in the field. I like seafood but i fear it may be unavailable in the future or too toxic to consume. Ill gladly pay a small tax to change that. Its also not just about US. Asian countries are the biggest contributors to the pacific garbage patch ,they will respond to taxes (or tariffs)far faster than ethics.


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## Ashful (Sep 11, 2018)

sportbikerider78 said:


> Companies provide what people want.  We need to dispel these myths of taxing 'unethical' products like tobacco and alcohol.  There are tons of products we like that can cause us harm in excess.



I agree with your sentiment.  But it’s unrelated to the point.  Companies find the least costly way to produce their product, to thrive in a competitive market place, even when it has a detrimental effect on society at large.  Point in case, cigarette filter shall be produced at the lowest possible cost, any effect on the environment being only a secondary consideration.

In ideal capitalism, folks could vote with their wallet, and just buy cigarettes from the companies that have minimized their environmental impact.  But that would require transparency and knowledge of data to which the customer typically has no knowledge or access, and it would also require consumers with the wherewithal and disposable income to make that choice.


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## sportbikerider78 (Sep 11, 2018)

Ashful said:


> I agree with your sentiment.  But it’s unrelated to the point.  Companies find the least costly way to produce their product, to thrive in a competitive market place, even when it has a detrimental effect on society at large.  Point in case, cigarette filter shall be produced at the lowest possible cost, any effect on the environment being only a secondary consideration.
> 
> In ideal capitalism, folks could vote with their wallet, and just buy cigarettes from the companies that have minimized their environmental impact.  But that would require transparency and knowledge of data to which the customer typically has no knowledge or access, and it would also require consumers with the wherewithal and disposable income to make that choice.


Well, you mentioned nobility, not me, so yes...its relative to ethics.  You comment was clearly a slant at the ethics of th ed company..which is fine with me..I have no stake in the tobacco companies.
As with any issue...if people are educated they make different decisions.  It think it is laughable we are talking about filters on smokes as an environmental issue..but maybe that is because I have not been educated.  It seems like very small potatoes..but I do not know.


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## sportbikerider78 (Sep 11, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Its not about ethics. Its about product life cycle. If companies were made to be at least partly responsible for where their product ends up and how it harms the environment and every living thing along the way, they would make at least a minimum effort to change. No one likes taxes but they do change behavior and lead to innovation in the field. I like seafood but i fear it may be unavailable in the future or too toxic to consume. Ill gladly pay a small tax to change that. Its also not just about US. Asian countries are the biggest contributors to the pacific garbage patch ,they will respond to taxes (or tariffs)far faster than ethics.


Well..we create companies....so....

Any tax is just passed to the consumer anyway.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 11, 2018)

sportbikerider78 said:


> Well..we create companies....so....
> 
> Any tax is just passed to the consumer anyway.


Until the consumer dont buy their product anymore because its more expensive than alternatives. Plus the tax that the consumer pays goes to the cleanup cost of the product in the environment(Ideally). Same as tariffs .Tariffs are used to compell companies to make their products here in the US rather than ship production abroad.Not just to collect tax money. Its a tool.


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## sportbikerider78 (Sep 11, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Until the consumer dont buy their product anymore because its more expensive than alternatives. Plus the tax that the consumer pays goes to the cleanup cost of the product in the environment(Ideally). Same as tariffs .Tariffs are used to compell companies to make their products here in the US rather than ship production abroad.Not just to collect tax money. Its a tool.


Tariffs are a great example of this theory not working..just passing cost to the consumer.  We are seeing that happen right now with the latest tariffs driving cost.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 11, 2018)

sportbikerider78 said:


> Tariffs are a great example of this theory not working..just passing cost to the consumer.  We are seeing that happen right now with the latest tariffs driving cost.


Im assuming you dont play chess,cuz every move you make affects what happens 4,5,6 steps ahead. Tariffs are working fine toward the objected goal which is to create a level playing field for trade. Unless your fine with the last 30 years of other countries pounding us into the ground charging us tariffs while we charge them just about nothing. China charges us 25% for almost everything we send them,we charge them 2-3% ..Now they are screaming cuz we want equal treatment.


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## Ashful (Sep 12, 2018)

sportbikerider78 said:


> Tariffs are a great example of this theory not working..just passing cost to the consumer.  We are seeing that happen right now with the latest tariffs driving cost.



Exactly.  But you say this as if it’s an example why tariffs don’t work, when really, it is precisely why they DO work.  Those costs are passed to the consumer, who is then incentivized to try an alternative product.

Most countries have been doing this for years, as a form of protectionism.  I saw it to the highest degree when I lived in Germany, you could buy a German-made TV or an Asian TV... but thanks to tariffs, they were going to cost you the same.  Likewise with automobiles.  It was their way of protecting German manufacturing, and one could make some good arguments (national security) for protecting your manufacturing capabilities.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 12, 2018)

Just the threat of tariffs has worked already for mexico. Others will follow. (Canada and Europe) China may hold out the longest but they have lot more to lose. Of course public outrcry means little in a communist country. Many smaller countries have a 100% tariff on imported goods. Philippines and Costa Rica for example. An imported 30k auto is 60k . $15 imported jeans are $30.


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## venator260 (Sep 15, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Just the threat of tariffs has worked already for mexico. Others will follow. (Canada and Europe) China may hold out the longest but they have lot more to lose. Of course public outrcry means little in a communist country. Many smaller countries have a 100% tariff on imported goods. Philippines and Costa Rica for example. An imported 30k auto is 60k . $15 imported jeans are $30.




But is the revised trade deal all that better? Especially if Canada taps out. 

And you mention those higher priced goods as if it were a good thing, and it's exactly what sportbikerider was saying. If a country's citizens are paying $30.00 for a $15.00 pair of jeans, it is not foreign countries that are paying the tariff, it's the citizens of that country. Making cars more expensive makes everyone worse off. And we tried this before, most recently under George Bush. Steel tariffs were put in place, and without looking up any numbers, those tariffs did save jobs... at something like $1.2 million in higher prices per saved job. And the economic data bears that out generally. While I'm opposed to any new government program, if it's even done halfway efficiently, it is better to remove trade barriers and retrain the workforce in those industries in which a country with its given resources can be competitive. 

I think one of the issues with this is that folks hear "trade deficit" and think that is a bad thing. But trade is not a football game, for us to win, someone else doesn't have to lose.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 15, 2018)

venator260 said:


> I think one of the issues with this is that folks hear "trade deficit" and think that is a bad thing. But trade is not a football game, for us to win, someone else doesn't have to lose.


 No, but it has to be fair and reciprical, or one side DOES lose. Its been the US on the losing end of unfair trade agreements. So what is your solution, just keep bleeding jobs and market cuz you might raise prices temporarily. We have been doing that for decades, so your in good company if thats your solution. If we want the jobs back (millions of jobs)we have to fix this. Iv read for every $1 BIllion in trade deficit 20000 jobs are lost. Given the hundreds of billion of deficits were running thats a lot of jobs. About 10 million jobs. Iv yet to hear all the tariff nay sayers come up with a single viable solution.  Because there is no easy solution where no pain is involved, at least short term pain.


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## sportbikerider78 (Sep 16, 2018)

Ashful said:


> Exactly.  But you say this as if it’s an example why tariffs don’t work, when really, it is precisely why they DO work.  Those costs are passed to the consumer, who is then incentivized to try an alternative product.
> 
> Most countries have been doing this for years, as a form of protectionism.  I saw it to the highest degree when I lived in Germany, you could buy a German-made TV or an Asian TV... but thanks to tariffs, they were going to cost you the same.  Likewise with automobiles.  It was their way of protecting German manufacturing, and one could make some good arguments (national security) for protecting your manufacturing capabilities.


The example you gave is also another example of them not working.
The more a person overspends for a TV the less other products they can buy (German and foreign).  You're making the German TV company rich via lobbying/tariffs against another company.  This gives the German company a competitive advantage and leverage over the consumer via politics.  It is as far as you can get from free trade.  It also removes incentive for the German company to be as competitive as possible..after all..the are protected.

The question that needs asking, is why can't the German company compete with the other manufacturer? 

We should be looking at all transactions as a trade between people.  Not a trade between countries/governments.  We don't need governments to facilitate our trade.  We can figure that out just fine on our own. 

This is just a little clip from Milton Friedman on the free market and tariffs.  In this case (once upon a time) cheaper steel from Japan.
In case you are wondering who he is....*Milton Friedman* (/ˈfriːdmən/; July 31, 1912 – November 16, 2006) was an American economist who received the 1976 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his research on consumption analysis, monetaryhistory and theory and the complexity of stabilization policy.[4] With George Stigler and others, Friedman was among the intellectual leaders of the second generation of Chicago price theory, a methodological movement at the University of Chicago's Department of Economics, Law School and Graduate School of Business from the 1940s onward. Several students and young professors who were recruited or mentored by Friedman at Chicago went on to become leading economists, including Gary Becker, Robert Fogel, Thomas Sowell[5] and Robert Lucas Jr.[6]


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 16, 2018)

Tariffs and closed markets are facilitating 7 to 10% Yearly Growth for china for decades. Try telling china tariffs dont work.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 16, 2018)

sportbikerider78 said:


> The question that needs asking, is why can't the German company compete with the other manufacturer?


Its not that simple. How can you compete when the country your selling into is adding 25% to 100% tarrifs to the price of your product. 
What we have with china is NOT free trade. They charge us 25% we charge them 2- to 3% .Either we should match the tariffs they charge or both countries should go to Zero tariffs. Then you have free trade.


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## AlbergSteve (Sep 17, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Its not that simple. How can you compete when the country your selling into is adding 25% to 100% tarrifs to the price of your product.
> What we have with china is NOT free trade. They charge us 25% we charge them 2- to 3% .Either we should match the tariffs they charge or both countries should go to Zero tariffs. Then you have free trade.


Won't be free trade as long as there are subsidies... or the rejection of imports under the veil of national security.


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## sportbikerider78 (Sep 17, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Its not that simple. How can you compete when the country your selling into is adding 25% to 100% tarrifs to the price of your product.
> What we have with China is NOT free trade. They charge us 25% we charge them 2- to 3% .Either we should match the tariffs they charge or both countries should go to Zero tariffs. Then you have free trade.



I never said trade with China was free trade..and I agree with you.  What we need is free trade and governments squabbling over who can sell what for what price is ridiculous.  Matching tariffs will only hurt the consumer.
Even more so, China is a developing country and doesn't have half the environmental, legal, health, regulations we have in our country.  Even if the tariff was even, is that still an equal playing field?  Something to think about.  Nations are never equal. 

That company may choose not to sell to that other company/individual in said country.  It is that simple. Don't sell to China if you aren't getting a fair deal.  Apparently US farmers can still turn a profit moving lots of soybeans, corn, and cotton to China.  It is too bad the companies in China are getting screwed by their government for those products.  Or maybe they really aren't.  You never know over there.  

Here are the top exports to China from the US. 
Incidentally, with the new 25% tariff, China will start buying more soybeans from Brazil. I'm sure the US farmer isn't too happy with that.  
I knew nothing about this till now...I really didn't know soybeans were such a big export.  https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-soybean-tariff/

1.   Soybeans: $15 billion
2.   Civilian aircraft: $8.4 billion
3.   Cotton: $3.4 billion
4.   Copper materials: $3 billion
5.   Passenger vehicles (small engines): $3 billion
6.   Aluminum materials: $2.4 billion
7.   Passenger vehicles (large engines): $2.2 billion
8.   Electronic integrated circuits: $1.7 billion
9.   Corn: $1.3 billion
10.  Coal: $1.2 billion


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## venator260 (Sep 17, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> No, but it has to be fair and reciprical, or one side DOES lose. Its been the US on the losing end of unfair trade agreements. So what is your solution, just keep bleeding jobs and market cuz you might raise prices temporarily. We have been doing that for decades, so your in good company if thats your solution. If we want the jobs back (millions of jobs)we have to fix this. Iv read for every $1 BIllion in trade deficit 20000 jobs are lost. Given the hundreds of billion of deficits were running thats a lot of jobs. About 10 million jobs. Iv yet to hear all the tariff nay sayers come up with a single viable solution.  Because there is no easy solution where no pain is involved, at least short term pain.




The bleeding jobs thing is curious, and it's an odd argument for fans of our current administration to make. Because they're simultaneously touting the lowest unemployment ever with trade deals that are stealing our jobs. That number, my guess, looks only at job losses, not at other gains created by trade; cheaper goods. That helps other sectors of the economy. Essentially, the worker that changed jobs from the steel mill to the construction company is counted as a loss, even though that person still has a job. 

And no, I don't think that we should continue course. I think that we should work at removing existing trade barriers and other distortions to the market (like the subsidies mentioned in another post) because allowing the market to work will make goods cheaper; cheap enough to outweigh the negatives. What we've been doing for decades (liberalizing trade) as resulted in a fairly steady growth in buying power. Again, the mistake that's being made here, I think, is that a trade deficit is a problem that needs solving. 

You mention China. And I suppose that it isn't fair that they subsidize and protect their own industries. But what has the tariffs placed upon Chinese good achieved thus far. So far as I can tell, all that it has done is caused the Chinese government to place retaliatory tariffs against the United States, making several types of good more expensive and prompting additional farm subsidies, ultimately hurting the American consumer (everyone) to save a few jobs in the steel industry. And as sportbikerider mentioned, China can grow as they do (its more like 6-7% lately, contrasted with around 3% with the U.S. (GDP)) because they are a developing country. They have underutilized labor resources that can be tapped to achieve growth that is impossible for the United States. They're growing not because they're doing better than the U.S, they're just going through a process (Industrial Revolution) that we've already completed.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 17, 2018)

Im still not hearing solutions ,only complaints about how its being handled. Bad trade deals have been draining the wealth of this country for 30 years and no one has done much of anything(until now) to fix it. Coincidentally we have been borrowing trillions to cover the budget over the same time period. All those millions of lost Mfg jobs not paying taxes into our Govt but instead those jobs boosting other countries GDP. Had they(jobs) remained here for the same time period would have painted a very different picture.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 17, 2018)

sportbikerider78 said:


> 1.   Soybeans: $15 billion
> 2.   Civilian aircraft: $8.4 billion
> 3.   Cotton: $3.4 billion
> 4.   Copper materials: $3 billion
> ...


Small potatoes compared to what china sells us. At a greatly lower tariff rate.  When they get done stealing all our IPR they wont be buying much of anything from us. China is NOT our friend ,their 50 year plan is working flawlessly ,while our plan, cant seem to think beyond the current Adm.


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## venator260 (Sep 17, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Im still not hearing solutions ,only complaints about how its being handled. Bad trade deals have been draining the wealth of this country for 30 years and no one has done much of anything(until now) to fix it. Coincidentally we have been borrowing trillions to cover the budget over the same time period. All those millions of lost Mfg jobs not paying taxes into our Govt but instead those jobs boosting other countries GDP. Had they(jobs) remained here for the same time period would have painted a very different picture.




I said exactly what I would do; continue liberalizing trade, because it has been beneficial. 

I suppose it would surprise you to know that U.S. manufacturing output is at its highest levels in history? We're not losing manufacturing jobs to China, we're losing them to our own productivity. Real wages are growing, unemployment is low. The current "solutions" are wrongheaded, misguided, and will result in more harm than good. Indeed it's already started. This article came up as I was browsing Facebook today. There are many like it. 

https://reason.com/archives/2018/09/17/casualties-of-trumps-trade-war


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 17, 2018)

Why are tarriffs working superbly for most of the world but supposedly its not good for US. China ,Europe, Canada and mexico, our largest trading partners are at this moment fighting tooth and nail to KEEP their tariffs. If tariffs dont work, why are all the worlds biggest markets so protective of their own tariffs . Mexico has decided to adopt a better trade relationship with the US rather than disrupt markets and suffer the consequences but other countries are holding out as they seem the LOVE their own high tariffs and would rather a trade war than to give them up.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 17, 2018)

venator260 said:


> This article came up as I was browsing Facebook today. There are many like it.


Facebook, Really, Facebook!!


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## venator260 (Sep 17, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Why are tarriffs working superbly for most of the world but supposedly its not good for US. China ,Europe, Canada and mexico, our largest trading partners are at this moment fighting tooth and nail to KEEP their tariffs. If tariffs dont work, why are all the worlds biggest markets so protective of their own tariffs . Mexico has decided to adopt a better trade relationship with the US rather than disrupt markets and suffer the consequences but other countries are holding out as they seem the LOVE their own high tariffs and would rather a trade war than to give them up.



The last vestiges of mercantilism in those countries? I don't know your views outside of economics; my guess is that most of Europe has plenty of policies you also disagree with. I would argue that those countries that pursue economic protectionism would enjoy benefits from turning away from those policies. There's evidence for this, as countries liberalize their trade polices, their economy improves. 

Here's what I base everything that I've said in this tread on: The recently enacted tariffs are having demonstrable, detrimental effect on our economy. That tariffs are bad policy is an idea receiving near universal agreement among economists from across the ideological spectrum.


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## venator260 (Sep 17, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Facebook, Really, Facebook!!



It's how I came across the article, not the source of the article. Did you read it?

And would you hold it against my information if I cited a New York Times article (or Fox News, if that's your thing) that I happened across on Facebook?


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 17, 2018)

venator260 said:


> It's how I came across the article, not the source of the article. Did you read it?And would you hold it against my information if I cited a New York Times article (or Fox News, if that's your thing) that I happened across on Facebook?


As i said before the tariffs are not the end game but just a tool. A tool to get a better trade deal. Of course there are individual people and businesses that lose temporarily. If it were easy ,it would have been fixed long ago. You and this artice are not treating the tariffs as a negotiating tool ,but as if they are a permanent fixture. I Dont base my opinion on any news source other than what has been happening, us getting pounded on trade for the last 30 years and the hollowing out of out Mfg base, while the politicians ignore it cuz the fix is painful temporarily. They rather let us get fleeced quietly and say nothing.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 17, 2018)

venator260 said:


> I said exactly what I would do; continue liberalizing trade, because it has been beneficial.
> r


 Not a solution, try again. Will do nothing to eliminate hundreds of billions in trade deficit with china. Same policy that has not worked for 30 Years.


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## venator260 (Sep 17, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> As i said before the tariffs are not the end game but just a tool. A tool to get a better trade deal. Of course there are individual people and businesses that lose temporarily. If it were easy ,it would have been fixed long ago. You and this artice are not treating the tariffs as a negotiating tool ,but as if they are a permanent fixture. I Dont base my opinion on any news source other than watching us get pounded on trade for the last 30 years while the politicians ignore it cuz the fix is painful temporarily. They rather let us get fleeced quietly and say nothing.




And if China decides to leave the talks as they've threatened to do? Or they attend the talks, and don't budge?


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 17, 2018)

venator260 said:


> And if China decides to leave the talks as they've threatened to do? Or they attend the talks, and don't budge?


We can t back down when it comes to china.They have been robbing and stealing from us for too long. They have 5 or 600% more to lose then we do with a trade war, but what we do buy from china we can get elsewhere ,they are not the only game in town. Better to buy from countries that treat us as equals and are not charging us 25% on everything we sell them. For National Security purposes alone we should be limiting what we get from china.


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## venator260 (Sep 17, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Not a solution, try again.





Seasoned Oak said:


> We can t back down when it comes to china.They have been robbing and stealing from us for too long. They have 5 or 600% more to lose then we do with a trade war, but what we do buy from china we can get elsewhere ,they are not the only game in town. Better to buy from countries that treat us as equals and are not charging us 25% on everything we sell them. For National Security purposes alone we should be limiting what we get from china.




But looking at economic data, I'm having a hard time finding where they're robbing and stealing from us. 

They make items cheaper than we can. We purchase those items at a cheaper price, allowing greater buying power. The items purchased from China are purchased from Chinese manufacturers because they are cheaper. If we take our business elsewhere, we will lose buying power, because we will pay more for those items. Meanwhile, manufacturing jobs will not be coming back, because they weren't "lost" to China, but rather to productivity gains in U.S. manufacturing. 

National security makes just a small amount of sense if we were talking about advanced weapons systems for the U.S. military. I'm failing to see how it's a threat to national security to buy coffee mugs and car parts from China. I would think, however, that a trade war is a greater threat to national security than cheap goods from China.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 17, 2018)

Your forgetting the 25% they tack on everything they buy from us.   Apparently you also dont think the ,millions of jobs lost buying goods from china that we can make ourselves has no effect on our economy. I live in a town full of empty factories that used to make those goods until the Govt sold us out to cheap imports.  I would certainly rather pay a few dollars more for american made goods than have whole industries relocated to other countries. Same as i would pay a quarter more for a head of lettuce if it didnt depend on a steady stream of illegals to harvest it ,but thats a whole nother story where we are being sold out.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 17, 2018)

venator260 said:


> The items purchased from China are purchased from Chinese manufacturers because they are cheaper. If we take our business elsewhere, we will lose buying power, because we will pay more for .


 I would buy that argument if china were not subsidizing their exports with Govt money and actively trying to decimate start ups in us companies,to achieve global domination in targeted markets. Like the recently did to the solar panel industry. Dumping solar panels for less than the cost of production. They have been doing this with steel too an and  many other products. Your failing to see the big picture.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 17, 2018)

Your arguing that its better for US citzens to have access to cheap foreign goods than for this country to maintain Key Mgf industries that benefit the whole country .That pay taxes into american treasury rather the treasurys of foreign countries. Very short term ,short sighted thinking IMO.


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## venator260 (Sep 17, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Your forgetting the 25% they tack on everything they buy from us.   Apparently you also dont think the ,millions of jobs lost buying goods from china that we can make ourselves has no effect on our economy. I live in a town full of empty factories that used to make those goods until the Govt sold us out to cheap imports.  I would certainly rather pay a few dollars more for american made goods than have whole industries relocated to other countries. Same as i would pay a quarter more for a head of lettuce if it didnt depend on a steady stream of illegals to harvest it ,but thats a whole nother story where we are being sold out.



1. Manufacturing, specifically, did not lose jobs to China, but to efficiency. I read an article earlier that mentioned steel. In 1980, it took 10 man hours to produce a ton of steel. It now takes two. We need only 1/5 of the labor force to make the same amount of steel that we did in 1980. 

https://fee.org/articles/what-donald-trump-doesnt-understand-about-trade/

2. Those jobs aren't "lost", they're reallocated to more productive areas of the economy. Manufacturing the old school way is not economically viable, those jobs went somewhere else. It may not be in the same town, state, or even region of the country, hence the empty factories. If those jobs were lost, how could the United States be experiencing sub 4% unemployment? 



Seasoned Oak said:


> I would buy that argument if china were not subsidizing their exports with Govt money and actively trying to decimate start ups in us companies,to achieve global domination in targeted markets. Like the recently did to the solar panel industry. Dumping solar panels for less than the cost of production. They have been doing this with steel too an and  many other products. Your failing to see the big picture.



I'm not failing to see any big picture. All this means is that China is subsidizing the cost of everything made of steel in the United States. I fail to see how it is a bad thing. The big picture here is that jobs in the economy move around; because less people work in manufacturing, you argue that less people are working generally, failing to see that those workers simply changed fields. Again, sub 4% unemployment. 




Seasoned Oak said:


> Your arguing that its better for US citzens to have access to cheap foreign goods than for this country to maintain Key Mgf industries that benefit the whole country .That pay taxes into american treasury rather the treasurys of foreign countries. Very short term ,short sighted thinking IMO.



Once again, people are still working, making money, and paying taxes. For this argument to be true, U.S. tax receipts would have had to drop, but they've risen almost every year since 1940. And that is exactly what I'm arguing. Significantly higher buying power for every single citizen of the United States is worth the loss of a manufacturing job that is gained in another sector of the economy, and may require retraining or inconveniencing several thousand workers. 

https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/federal-receipt-and-outlay-summary

I'm just going to go ahead and cite some other data that I have been referencing, but not interpreted explicitly. 

Throughout this supposed disastrous period, GDP has risen at a more or less steady rate (except the housing crisis of 2008). 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp

Real household incomes have been choppy. But if what you say were true (that we were bleeding jobs due to free trade) they should be falling. The United States is currently experiencing the highest real income in decades.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp

In the last few years of liberalizing trade policy, unemployment has been dropping at a more or less steady rate. 

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

I tried to pick the biggest picture data that I could find. I'm curious to hear your interpretation of this.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 17, 2018)

The unemployment rate while getting better is a misleading number as is the inflation rate and many other metrics the Govt puts out. I dont think anyone really believes its only 4%. Some demographics are 50%. Less than 1/3 of the population is even counted. We are swimming in debt, running an unsustainable ponzi scheme that will collapse at some point under its own weight. 
It too bad that so many people (not just yourself)dont see the draining of hundred of billions of dollar out of the economy every year by bad trade deals as a problem that not important enough to endure some short term pain to fix. When the debt bomb come home to roost ,america wont be able to afford even cheap junk from china to prop it up. Im curious of your opinion of the 20 Trillion of debt heading for 30 trillion. Is that also nothing to be concerned about.?   Plus no one has attempted to answer why all our major trading partners are fighting so hard to maintain their high tariffs. Of course they know its in their own countries best interest because they profit greatly from running surplus trade with the US.Or any other country


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## venator260 (Sep 17, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> The unemployment rate while getting better is a misleading number as is the inflation rate and many other metrics the Govt puts out. I dont think anyone really believes its only 4%. Some demographics are 50%. Less than 1/3 of the population is even counted. We are swimming in debt, running an unsustainable ponzi scheme that will collapse at some point under its own weight.
> It too bad that so many people (not just yourself)dont see the draining of hundred of billions of dollar out of the economy every year by bad trade deals as a problem that not important enough to endure some short term pain to fix. When the debt bomb come home to roost ,america wont be able to afford even cheap junk from china to prop it up. Im curious of your opinion of the 20 Trillion of debt heading for 30 trillion. Is that also nothing to be concerned about.?   Plus no one has attempted to answer why all our major trading partners are fighting so hard to maintain their high tariffs. Of course they know its in their own countries best interest because they profit greatly from running surplus trade with the US.Or any other country



You're mixing several different issues here that aren't connected in the way that you claim. 

The labor force participation rate, which is what you're talking about as the real unemployment rate, has been steady for 4 years. So the improvement of the unemployment rate, in that context, is an improvement. 

The trade deficit and the budget deficit are not directly connected, that is, a higher trade deficit does not automatically make the debt worse. If it did, the tax revenues that I cited in one of my past posts would have dropped. They have not, they have risen instead. The debt is a problem; allowing the economy to run unencumbered by tariffs will increase tax revenues. This should help the debt of the U.S. government, but spending would have to be reigned in. 

As for "money drained from the economy". That's the zero sum thinking that I was talking about earlier. Money is taken, goods are received, a mutually beneficial change occurs. If money spent was a drain of resources, we should all be very concerned about the trade deficit that we run with our grocery store, and our employer should be rather concerned about their trade deficit with us. But that's not how it works. 

Countries hold on to their tariffs because they're not economists. Protectionism sounds great; it's a good way to get votes. The U.S. elected a president largely because of this platform (and the related concern about immigrants taking jobs). But it's not something supported by anyone who actually studies the economy. As I said before, but I'll mention again, it's nearly unanimous, in a field where little else is, that protectionism is a bad idea, and makes countries worse off. To move this to another field, protectionists are like climate change deniers in terms of the percentage of experts in the field that agree with them. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/artcarden/2018/05/04/1100-economists-no-trump-tariffs/#99b09ad40fba

I'm not sure what else I can say. There's simply no credible source that I can think of that would support protectionist measures, even temporarily as some sort of 4D chess match type strategy to make deals. At best, it damages relationships with allies, and at worst, we're left with wrongheaded measures that hurt economic growth as a legacy of a deal gone bad.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 18, 2018)

Still no answer to why all our trading partners use high tariffs to benefit their countries economies and all but refuse to give them up. China, Canada, Mexico and Europe are not stupid. Nor are they all 3rd world countries that dont know better. 70000 factories lost in the last few decades and all of those factories were NOT lost to efficiency improvements. Plus every factorys output off shored is that much revenue the Govt no longer collects directly affecting the Debt and deficit. The US treasury collects ZERO taxes from chinese factories . Free trade is only beneficial to both sides, when both sides practice free trade. How many different ways does that need to be stated?  Its not political. Steel and aluminum industries are roaring back with new investments ,is that not enough evidence that the steel play was the right move? Probably not for some.
There may be better ways to force other countries to practice fair trade with no tariffs but probably not faster than tariffs as evidenced by mexico.


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## venator260 (Sep 18, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Still no answer to why all our trading partners use high tariffs to benefit their countries economies and all but refuse to give them up. China, Canada, Mexico and Europe are not stupid. Nor are they all 3rd world countries that dont know better.



Those countries also run high levels of government debt. Is that good policy? Popularity does not dictate what is a good idea, only what gets votes. 




Seasoned Oak said:


> 70000 factories lost in the last few decades and all of those factories were NOT lost to efficiency improvements. Plus every factorys output off shored is that much revenue the Govt no longer collects directly affecting the Debt and deficit. The US treasury collects ZERO taxes from chinese factories . Free trade is only beneficial to both sides, when both sides practice free trade. How many different ways does that need to be stated?  Its not political. Steel and aluminum industries are roaring back with new investments ,is that not enough evidence that the steel play was the right move? Probably not for some.
> There may be better ways to force other countries to practice fair trade with no tariffs but probably not faster than tariffs as evidenced by mexico.



I've cited all sorts of evidence to prove why this is wrong. Steel and aluminum factories are experiencing a bump in employment at the expense of every other industry in the United States due to more expensive inputs. Should we save one steel mill at the expense of five factories that make finished goods from metal? That's exactly what's happening. The benefits to the steel industry are not worth the cost. 

Again, I'll fall back on this, and then I don't know what else I can say. Almost every economist agrees that the current course is bad policy. I don't trust Jenny McCarthy to give me good advice about vaccines; and politicians (or reality TV starts turned politicians) are not good sources of sound economic policy.


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## Doug MacIVER (Sep 18, 2018)

always go back to my industry, shoes. history here, has always been one to find low cost labor for a labor intensive product. New England factories either closed and moved south, or remained open to expand new factories in low labor cost areas. cheap footwear, synthetics and sneakers the first go offshore. then comes So.Korea and Taiwan. China grabs the next spot and is now losing it to areas south of them. other labor intensive  industries all did the same. the most automated factories in apparel, furniture, ect could no longer compete with imported products of equal quality. those jobs will never be revived.

answer, hold what we can in those highly profitable products we still control. more automation to help keep that control and hope displaced workers can make enough $$$ ringing a cash register ! oh, I meant fixing the kiosk ?

 0% tariff is a lofty goal and obviously  can't happen unilaterally. interesting to watch the chess game though.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/mone...still-work-long-days-for-low-wages/ar-BBMYdnY


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 18, 2018)

We will have to agree to disagree on this one. Most if not all of the experts agree free trade is beneficial,but we are not getting free trade. They just disagree on how to correct it.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 18, 2018)

Doug MacIVER said:


> . China grabs the next spot and is now losing it to areas south of them. other labor intensive  industries all did the same. the most automated factories in apparel, furniture, ect could no longer compete with imported products of equal quality. those jobs will never be revived.


I completely understand that some labor intensive jobs are not coming back. And are better farmed out to low wage countries. But allowing other countries to impose artificial taxes on our products in the form of tariffs while at the same time we allow their products in without tariffs or with very low tariffs is an entirely different thing. At  times for the sole purpose of shutting down factories and destroying the competiton(which is US) .  Thats what needs fixing. And while there may be better ways to fix it rather than imposing our own tariffs on their imports ,there probably is not a faster way.


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## Doug MacIVER (Sep 18, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> I completely understand that some labor intensive jobs are not coming back. And are better farmed out to low wage countries. But allowing other countries to impose artificial taxes on our products in the form of tariffs while at the same time we allow their products in without tariffs or with very low tariffs is an entirely different thing. At  times for the sole purpose of shutting down factories and destroying the competiton(which is US) .  Thats what needs fixing. And while there may be better ways to fix it rather than imposing our own tariffs on their imports ,there probably is not a faster way.


 factory and industrial predation China's # 1 priority. can knock off anything in a heartbeat and do so. Better way? honestly, I'm stuck! maybe the money changers have an answer, not much sense in having huge economy and huge currency advantage as well. that area above my pay level. maybe someone can help me?


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 18, 2018)

Doug MacIVER said:


> factory and industrial predation China's # 1 priority. can knock off anything in a heartbeat and do so. Better way? honestly, I'm stuck! maybe the money changers have an answer, not much sense in having huge economy and huge currency advantage as well. that area above my pay level. maybe someone can help me?


We can stop letting them dump on us. Which it appears is what s happening now.


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## begreen (Sep 18, 2018)

Perhaps the goal probably is less to do with dumping or making a deal with China and more about forcing US international corporations to bring manufacturing back domestically.


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## sportbikerider78 (Sep 18, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Im still not hearing solutions ,only complaints about how its being handled. Bad trade deals have been draining the wealth of this country for 30 years and no one has done much of anything(until now) to fix it. Coincidentally we have been borrowing trillions to cover the budget over the same time period. All those millions of lost Mfg jobs not paying taxes into our Govt but instead those jobs boosting other countries GDP. Had they(jobs) remained here for the same time period would have painted a very different picture.



What you are hearing is discussion to the tariff points you brought up.  I didn't hear you ask for solutions...my mistake if I missed it. 
The solutions are the same they have always been.  Stay competitive.  Become more efficient.  The result is making high quality products for minimal cost that are globally competitive.  If you are looking for a way to save every industry through the evolution of consumer demand, technology improvements and economic changes, you're mistaken.  There are always victims in every market.  There need to be.  It is natural.

There are a million reasons companies go overseas.
1) Read up on what the IMF and Import/Export Bank do.  They use taxpayer money to back loans to US companies that want to move overseas.  It is just wrong.  The taxpayer accepts the risk.
2) A move is RARELY about labor costs and everything to do with avoiding regulations.  Many goods that have the manufacturing lines fully automated, still get moved.  
3) Many states are becoming toxic to business.  They either move to more business friendly (usually union free) states or overseas.

I will say that getting out of NAFTA was a good move.  That wasn't helping us.


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## sportbikerider78 (Sep 18, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Small potatoes compared to what china sells us. At a greatly lower tariff rate.  When they get done stealing all our IPR they wont be buying much of anything from us. China is NOT our friend ,their 50 year plan is working flawlessly ,while our plan, cant seem to think beyond the current Adm.


Every company that moves manufacturing over there, knows its IP is in jeopardy.   That is the gamble they are playing.  They accept that risk.  It is theirs to lose.  Companies are powerless when the Chinese government enters and says "we want this or we close your plant".  Nothing they can do.  

I agree.  They are not our friend.  However, many Americans benefit from getting goods cheaper from them.  The computer you are using right now has Chinese goods in it or even entirely Chinese made.  

This is a decision people need to be free to make themselves, not through excessive tariffs that only steal from people to make the government richer.


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## sportbikerider78 (Sep 18, 2018)

begreen said:


> Perhaps the goal probably is less to do with dumping and making a deal with China and more about forcing US international corporations to bring manufacturing back domestically.


Americans are already free to buy a product made in America. 

They will just move all operations to another country that isn't trying to strong arm them.  US companies don't have to stay US companies.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 18, 2018)

I agree using taxpayer funds to help companies move overseas is just nuts. Economic suicide to some extent. There is some good news
Mexico and the EU are moving toward Zero tariffs. The new US deal with mexico will boost wages for both countries. The auto workers in both countries love it. Good for our domestic auto industry ,at least whats left of it. So id give it at least 6 months or more to see if canada and the EU comes around ,i think they will.


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## sportbikerider78 (Sep 18, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Still no answer to why all our trading partners use high tariffs to benefit their countries economies and all but refuse to give them up.


Simple.  Governments are bad at economics, run by politicians for political ends and they do it to pander to union and special interest votes.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 18, 2018)

sportbikerider78 said:


> I agree.  They are not our friend.  However, many Americans benefit from getting goods cheaper from them.  The computer you are using right now has Chinese goods in it or even entirely Chinese made.


  We dont benefit from toxic drywall ,contaminated food supplies including poisinous pet food as well. Seafood with high levels of pollutants. But his is one area where our own Govt can step in with more testing and send this junk back. Iv read only 10% or less ever gets tested and if it fails ,the ship simply finds another port until its not tested. Foreign countries test our exports extensively ,somtimes with the objective to simply add cost to it .


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## sportbikerider78 (Sep 18, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> We dont benefit from toxic drywall ,contaminated food supplies including poisinous pet food as well. Seafood with high levels of pollutants. But his is one area where our own Govt can step in with more testing and send this junk back. Iv read only 10% or less ever gets tested and if it fails ,the ship simply finds another port until its not tested. Foreign countries test our exports extensively ,somtimes with the objective to simply add cost to it .


You can argue with their choices all you would like.  If consumers exchange their labor for those goods, they perceive value.


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## bholler (Sep 18, 2018)

sportbikerider78 said:


> You can argue with their choices all you would like.  If consumers exchange their labor for those goods, they perceive value.


He said nothing about value.  He is talking about dangerous even poisonous products being sold here.  And i am sure there are many more we never find out about.


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## sportbikerider78 (Sep 19, 2018)

bholler said:


> He said nothing about value.  He is talking about dangerous even poisonous products being sold here.  And i am sure there are many more we never find out about.


Everyone knows Chinese (especially food) products can be sketchy.  They still buy them.  That means they perceive value in their risk/reward thought process...however skewed that might be.


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## bholler (Sep 19, 2018)

sportbikerider78 said:


> Everyone knows Chinese (especially food) products can be sketchy.  They still buy them.  That means they perceive value in their risk/reward thought process...however skewed that might be.


Ok so there is a perceived value.  That doesnt mean anything at all.  And no not everyone knows the products are sketchy.  They should but may just see the price.

And again he said nothing about value either real or perceived.  He simply said that those products arent helping americans.  Your argument of perceived value proves that.  People are paying for perceived value but getting no real value.  Therefore not being helped.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 19, 2018)

sportbikerider78 said:


> Everyone knows Chinese (especially food) products can be sketchy.  They still buy them.  That means they perceive value in their risk/reward thought process...however skewed that might be.


There no way dangerous food products should ever make it into the country. People dont carry testing kits to the supermarket nor should they need to. Thats a job for our own Food inspectors to make sure all the food made available for sale is safe, even domestic sourced food. Imported food especially anything from china should be tested rigorously and a big % of it as well. The cost of testing added to the import. Its the least our own Govt can do. And something the general population can not do for itself.


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## sportbikerider78 (Sep 20, 2018)

bholler said:


> Ok so there is a perceived value.  That doesnt mean anything at all.  And no not everyone knows the products are sketchy.  They should but may just see the price.
> 
> And again he said nothing about value either real or perceived.  He simply said that those products arent helping americans.  Your argument of perceived value proves that.  People are paying for perceived value but getting no real value.  Therefore not being helped.


Yes..that is why I said "perceived".


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## sportbikerider78 (Sep 20, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> There no way dangerous food products should ever make it into the country. People dont carry testing kits to the supermarket nor should they need to. Thats a job for our own Food inspectors to make sure all the food made available for sale is safe, even domestic sourced food. Imported food especially anything from china should be tested rigorously and a big % of it as well. The cost of testing added to the import. Its the least our own Govt can do. And something the general population can not do for itself.



I agree with you with maybe a twist.  
We should demand that companies place very clear product of origin labeling on their products.   In many cases, this has been done.  This way the consumer can make their own decision on what to buy.  

I think the best push for safe goods comes from the consumer directly to the manufacturer/distributor, when it comes to goods from other countries.  

There are TONS of canned goods coming from China.  It is really gross and I'll have no part of eating that sh**.


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## Doug MacIVER (Sep 20, 2018)

sportbikerider78 said:


> I agree with you with maybe a twist.
> We should demand that companies place very clear product of origin labeling on their products.   In many cases, this has been done.  This way the consumer can make their own decision on what to buy.
> 
> I think the best push for safe goods comes from the consumer directly to the manufacturer/distributor, when it comes to goods from other countries.
> ...


 as an example, a market I shop at has 5 very good looking garlic cloves in a mesh sleeve for $1.00. noticing the label has a "produce of China", I thought what the hell, garlic is garlic. later tripped upon an article stating the over use of chemicals and pesticides in certain Chinese grown veggies. decided from that point veggies are different from different areas. close to their farm raised shrimp and scallops. same with India, Vietnam, ect. won't go near them any more.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 20, 2018)

sportbikerider78 said:


> I agree with you with maybe a twist.
> We should demand that companies place very clear product of origin labeling on their products.   In many cases, this has been done.  This way the *.


They fight this tooth and nail cuz when people have a clear choice they dont want china or GMO anywhere near their food supply and rightfully so.


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## begreen (Sep 20, 2018)

begreen said:


> Perhaps the goal probably is less to do with dumping or making a deal with China and more about forcing US international corporations to bring manufacturing back domestically.





sportbikerider78 said:


> Americans are already free to buy a product made in America.
> 
> They will just move all operations to another country that isn't trying to strong arm them.  US companies don't have to stay US companies.


Not disagreeing, just trying to get my head around the aims of current policy. The consequences and blowback may be entirely different as you have noted. In the big picture it appears to be an existential conflict with China for global dominance. Your thoughts?


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## Doug MacIVER (Sep 20, 2018)

begreen said:


> Not disagreeing, just trying to get my head around the aims of current policy. The consequences and blowback may be entirely different as you have noted. In the big picture it appears to be an existential conflict with China for global dominance. Your thoughts?


isn't that the age old cold war situation, "we will bury you!" wait , what if I don't want to be buried?https://www.bing.com/videos/search?...5766F7403189AA519E615766F7403189&&FORM=VRDGAR

 in trade the only thing you can do is put up every barrier you can come up with, if you agree this aint fair .

got to admit I think this is the first time China has had a challenge that they fear, if they don't retaliate, they admit we can live not having you as a customer.I also think that their downplay is the US is just a minor annoyance.

 do you trade with a retailer that doesn't give a flying #$%^ about you as a customer?

just some thoughts.


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## Seasoned Oak (Sep 20, 2018)

China is already out of ammo, if they want a trade war,they just dont buy from us near what they sell to us. Their economy is taking a hit already. Its in their own best interest to play fair but they have been playing us for so long it may be hard for them to change. Plus the whole macho thing where they dont want to appear weak. If we can get good trade agreements with all the major players we can get that GDP up even more and even more people working. At least until the debt bomb burys us.


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## begreen (Sep 20, 2018)

Seasoned Oak said:


> At least until the debt bomb burys us.


And who do we owe that money to?


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## AlbergSteve (Sep 20, 2018)

begreen said:


> And who do we owe that money to?


China!


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## AlbergSteve (Sep 20, 2018)

And they're not out of ammo...they can afford to wait it out.


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## Doug MacIVER (Sep 21, 2018)

begreen said:


> And who do we owe that money to?


 the short list.
https://www.thebalance.com/trade-deficit-by-county-3306264

let's add this simple answer to , "what does it mean"?
https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-trade-deficit-causes-effects-trade-partners-3306276


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## sportbikerider78 (Sep 21, 2018)

begreen said:


> Not disagreeing, just trying to get my head around the aims of current policy. The consequences and blowback may be entirely different as you have noted. In the big picture it appears to be an existential conflict with China for global dominance. Your thoughts?



Sure.  China is no doubt a very powerful nation.  They are slowly stepping away from pure communism and entertaining this blend of capitalism and communism.  It is an interesting thing, no doubt.  
I don't see them as a violent threat to our nation..from a national security point of view.  They are far away. They don't provoke us.  We don't provoke them....it seems to be working and peace is a good thing. 

There is no doubt they steal market share from us, but only what we allow them to take by moving factories and such. One of the biggest things driving their markets is their own markets.  They are getting so big that (just like the US) they need to manufacture their own goods for themselves.  That doesn't hurt our markets or impact us. 

I worry much more about the states in the US that that don't work to keep businesses going, thriving and moving in.  I don't mean incentives, I just mean less red tape.


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## begreen (Sep 21, 2018)

So what are the actual reasons behind escalating a trade war with China? It doesn't seem like this will help us in the long run.

per Doug's linked article:
_"An ongoing trade deficit is detrimental to the nation’s economy because it is financed with debt. The United States can buy more than it makes because it borrows from its trading partners. It's like a party where the pizza place is willing to keep sending you pizzas and putting it on your tab. This can only continue as long as the pizzeria trusts you to repay the loan. One day, the lending countries could decide to ask America to repay the debt. On that day, the party is over."_

The potential for harm seems much greater than perceived benefits. The tariff policies also open the door for corruption and crony capitalism. 
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-political-tariff-bureaucracy-1533597856


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## sportbikerider78 (Sep 21, 2018)

Yup its true. National debt is a big deal.  It is the same as over leveraging your household income with credit cards.  Right now we are just making the interest payments.  
The interesting being about 5% of total fed spending.  

I find that quote a little confusing.  Trade deficit just means imports are greater than exports.  How a country leverages that is another story.  A deficit by itself, does not mean borrowed money, in this case.  
Here is a quite good definition that I found beneficial reading. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trade_deficit.asp


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## Doug MacIVER (Sep 21, 2018)

begreen said:


> So what are the actual reasons behind escalating a trade war with China? It doesn't seem like this will help us in the long run.
> 
> per Doug's linked article:
> _"An ongoing trade deficit is detrimental to the nation’s economy because it is financed with debt. The United States can buy more than it makes because it borrows from its trading partners. It's like a party where the pizza place is willing to keep sending you pizzas and putting it on your tab. This can only continue as long as the pizzeria trusts you to repay the loan. One day, the lending countries could decide to ask America to repay the debt. On that day, the party is over."_
> ...



 Maybe I just don't understand. one country already owns a huge currency advantage over another and pays a very small duty on their good entering that country seems to have a pretty good advantage.  then protect it's own industry with duty at 12.5 time higher on products from that trading partner making it  fall in the unfair column. we've seen movement to fairer trade with Mexico and Europe, but #1 China looks to be a tougher nut to crack .

sounds very simple and with a great deal of common sense where I sit. If china refuses to compromise or adjust is where the real problems will begin.


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## CaptSpiff (Sep 22, 2018)

"......_ One day, the lending countries could decide to ask America to repay the debt. On that day, the party is over."_

I'm not certain the debt is callable. They can however stop buying our debt, in which case we offer higher interest until the buyers come out.


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## Doug MacIVER (Sep 24, 2018)

Recently had a machine situation arise in my factory. A 1980's era Comelz  thermo folder, which are Italian made, broke down. While parts are available, service is non existent.Failure being beyond our capabilities a new folder became our best option . New Comelz's go at $2000-3500, comps from China go at $1000-2000.  Just got notification from Homeland Security's entry summary. $ 0.00 duty, $0.00 tax, line 39 other $ 2.05 based on a $1285.00 value. While I'm sure not very many of these enter the USA annually, the domestic suppliers of rebuilt or new folders cannot compete here.

Wonder how many other product cruise under the radar with $0.00 duty and or tax?
 Just for reference here is the exact job we use this for, 

one point here , a real good operator would be chaining the insoles continuously!


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## sportbikerider78 (Sep 24, 2018)

Doug MacIVER said:


> Recently had a machine situation arise in my factory. A 1980's era Comelz  thermo folder, which are Italian made, broke down. While parts are available, service is non existent.Failure being beyond our capabilities a new folder became our best option . New Comelz's go at $2000-3500, comps from China go at $1000-2000.  Just got notification from Homeland Security's entry summary. $ 0.00 duty, $0.00 tax, line 39 other $ 2.05 based on a $1285.00 value. While I'm sure not very many of these enter the USA annually, the domestic suppliers of rebuilt or new folders cannot compete here.
> 
> Wonder how many other product cruise under the radar with $0.00 duty and or tax?
> Just for reference here is the exact job we use this for,
> ...



Are you sure you would have paid taxes on the machine sold stateside?  
Many of my customers do not have taxes added since they are MRO customers.


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## Doug MacIVER (Sep 24, 2018)

sportbikerider78 said:


> Are you sure you would have paid taxes on the machine sold stateside?
> Many of my customers do not have taxes added since they are MRO customers.


not the point. I had expected at least some duty on it's entry. as we are a regular US Corp. We have never paid tax on machinery whether domestic or imported as they previously been purchased through the maker or a supply reseller. .this was purchased direct with a Chinese comp. as I ask, I wonder how many other products come here duty free.

as I'm writing this I was just informed that Trump has made shoe and apparel machinery exempt. that is so because there are no manufacturers left producing said machinery. that is pretty sad as this is a 2.4 billion pair market??? largest manufacturers left are those producing military footwear.


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## CaptSpiff (Sep 24, 2018)

Doug MacIVER said:


> I wonder how many other products come here duty free.
> 
> ...as I'm writing this I was just informed that Trump has made shoe and apparel machinery exempt. that is so because there are no manufacturers left producing said machinery. that is pretty sad as this is a 2.4 billion pair market??? largest manufacturers left are those producing military footwear.



Remarkable how surgically these tariffs can be applied by an administration in such alleged chaos.


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## jharkin (Sep 25, 2018)

Oak,  you can listen to _Allentown_ all day on repeat until your ears bleed... but I'm sorry your factory jobs are never coming back. Ever. No matter what we do.

Those jobs where not eliminated by trade, they where eliminated by automation.   Moving them to china for cheap labor was just a roadside pitstop on the road to the inevitable.

I assume you are familiar with the Foxconn layoffs:
http://fortune.com/2016/05/26/foxconn-factory-robot-workers/


As was mentioned in a few threads, a big chunk of manufacturing HAS been coming back to the US in recent years, as production has become so cheap that now final goods transport over the ocean becomes a dominant cost.  Just look at all the "foreign" car brands with final assembly plants here in the US (BMW in the Carolinas, Honda in Ohio, Subaru,  Nissan, etc)  but these new plants are heavily automated and will never employ anywhere near as many people as Bethlehem Steel did in its heyday.

Or at least that _was_ happening, until the geniuses at 1600 started a trade war which will ironically slow this trend down and destroy American jobs.


P.S.  Its only going to continue.  Automation is fast eliminating service sector jobs as well, and next up is knowledge worker jobs as software and AI replaces routine/repeatable work like basic legal form generation, reading x-rays, etc.   Software programmers will be up after that once software generated software is perfected (and there is traction on that already).


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## jharkin (Sep 25, 2018)

CaptSpiff said:


> "......_ One day, the lending countries could decide to ask America to repay the debt. On that day, the party is over."_
> 
> I'm not certain the debt is callable. They can however stop buying our debt, in which case we offer higher interest until the buyers come out.



Fairly sure you are correct and its not callable, as the debt is all in the form of bonds (T-bills, TIPS, etc).

Also this thread has got way off track in a few places as Oak keeps saying the debt bomb will explode, then begreen asks who its owed  to and the answers start talking about the trade deficit.

trade defect X=  debt.

The actual debt is less than 1/3 owned by foreign countries.  Most of it is owned  by you and I though our retirement plans, by US corporations, and other government agencies.   So lets stop with the fear mongering that China is going to "call the loan" and crash our economy.  It physically can't happen, and even if it could they would be crazy to do it and they know it (they cant sell us stuff if we cant afford to buy).




https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-who-owns-a-record-2121-trillion-of-us-debt-2018-08-21


I'm not saying that ever increasing debt levels are completely a good thing, but I do think we have to at all at least have a common understanding of the problem before we can have a productive conversation about fixes.


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## Doug MacIVER (Sep 25, 2018)

jharkin said:


> Oak,  you can listen to _Allentown_ all day on repeat until your ears bleed... but I'm sorry your factory jobs are never coming back. Ever. No matter what we do.
> 
> Those jobs where not eliminated by trade, they where eliminated by automation.   Moving them to china for cheap labor was just a roadside pitstop on the road to the inevitable.
> 
> ...


disagree with your history, '80-90's when the doors opened  named brands rushed the the low $$ labor areas of the world.even the most automated plants could not compete. agree they are gone for good. what does have a chance are niche tough to automate markets in industries.good ole fashion USA made furniture, apparel, shoe, on and on. some of that will be exported as well. small-moderate growth can happen, if for no other reason, because there is nothing else to do.


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## Ashful (Sep 25, 2018)

Wow.. if you folks put half the energy into making money, that you put into arguing about tariffs, you wouldn’t care about tariffs.  :lol:


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## vinny11950 (Dec 7, 2018)

Well, the trade deficit just hit a 10-year high, and the Federal Budget Deficit is growing again and set to explode in the coming years.

I would say the Taxing and Tariff policies of this administration are not working for most people.  And if you benefited from the tax cut, it is probably being offset by higher interest rates on credit cards, mortgages, and loans.  Add to that higher prices on goods built with tariffed materials, and it all adds up to a different kind of tax.

And the monthly jobs numbers don't look much different than before the tax cuts.  Today's number was 155,000 jobs added.

I know it is still early in the implementation of these policies, but the trends are not good.


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## Ashful (Dec 7, 2018)

vinny11950 said:


> Well, the trade deficit just hit a 10-year high, and the Federal Budget Deficit is growing again and set to explode in the coming years.
> 
> I would say the Taxing and Tariff policies of this administration are not working for most people.  And if you benefited from the tax cut, it is probably being offset by higher interest rates on credit cards, mortgages, and loans.  Add to that higher prices on goods built with tariffed materials, and it all adds up to a different kind of tax.
> 
> ...



I guess everyone’s situation is different, but I’m doing much better under the current administration, than any time in the prior 8 years.  It also seems that so are most people around me.  If you’re above water, higher rates just means a higher return on your assets, only those with more debt than liquid assets will see a net loss under higher interest rates.


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## begreen (Dec 8, 2018)

Ashful said:


> I guess everyone’s situation is different, but I’m doing much better under the current administration, than any time in the prior 8 years.  It also seems that so are most people around me.  If you’re above water, higher rates just means a higher return on your assets, only those with more debt than liquid assets will see a net loss under higher interest rates.


Ask a farmer that lost 80% of their sales this year and have had to plow their crops into the ground.


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## begreen (Dec 8, 2018)

Just because local weather is cold or rainy doesn't mean climate change is not happening. It is the same thing with local vs national economies. One area may be doing well, but the big picture is not as rosy unless they are fat with govt. contracts. We've also seen local distilleries here have precipitous sales drops due to the tariffs. Keg manufacturers with lower sales and much higher costs for stainless steel, are seeing the same effect. Several companies have had to do large layoffs and may not recover. Mid-Continental Nail, the nation's largest nail mfg. is also a casualty with many layoffs. Worse yet are the tens of thousands of solar workers that have been laid off. The list goes on and on including ironically washing machines that the tariffs were supposed to help, but then their cost for steel skyrocketed.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/france...ll-hurt-america-more-than-china/#2fc3ede76276


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## bholler (Dec 8, 2018)

begreen said:


> Just because local weather is cold or rainy doesn't mean climate change is not happening. It is the same thing with local vs national economies. One area may be doing well, but the big picture is not as rosy unless they are fat with govt. contracts. We've also seen local distilleries here have precipitous sales drops due to the tariffs. Keg manufacturers with lower sales and much higher costs for stainless steel, are seeing the same effect. Several companies have had to do large layoffs and may not recover. Mid-Continental Nail, the nation's largest nail mfg. is also a casualty with many layoffs. Worse yet are the tens of thousands of solar workers that have been laid off.The list goes on and on including ironically washing machines that the tariffs were supposed to help, but then their cost for steel skyrocketed.
> https://www.forbes.com/sites/france...ll-hurt-america-more-than-china/#2fc3ede76276


Costs in the chimney industry have increased considerably as well.


----------



## jatoxico (Dec 8, 2018)

The competing ideas have already been laid out and I guess we will see how effective the stance our current admin has taken is. I am of the opinion that China has been unfair in its practices especially regarding intellectual property theft and they do manipulate markets and currency as part of a very long game they are playing.

The marriage of gov't and business has been effective for them. Their leaders pick which domestic regions will win and lose and invest in infrastructure based on goals they do not expect to entirely realize in their own life times (contrast that with our stock ticker watching economy). Not sure they will "fold" in any real way in the short term and I predict they are largely going to wait out the current admin, possibly even if elected to another term.

There may be some symbolic but unsubstantial concessions to give the appearance of change. Real change may only come from within if their population tires of the heavy handed control employed by the Chinese gov't.


----------



## Ashful (Dec 8, 2018)

begreen said:


> Ask a farmer that lost 80% of their sales this year and have had to plow their crops into the ground.



Several farms in my family, they’re all doing very well, this summer’s rain aside.

My response to these complaints is the same as my response to the complaints of the past two administrations:  the smart and ambitious will find a way to do well under any administration and economy.  It’s a fool’s thought to hope that EVERYONE does well, all we need to do is ensure that ANYONE can do well.  A government’s job is to provide order and opportunity, not to hold the hand of every person that wants to feed at it’s teet.  Survival of the fittest, it’s not a new concept.

That’s not to say I’m against charity, I spend almost the annual average individual salary on charity, and you and I have actually interacted on one (unsuccessful) case of that.  But that’s at the discretion of the individual, not government-mandated and government-bled.


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## begreen (Dec 8, 2018)

Local small farms are not exactly what I was talking about. They sell mostly to local markets and are not affected by tariffs. Large scale soybean and wheat farms are more the issue. Tariffs ultimately are a tax on the consumer and we are starting to feel that cost.

If its' survival of the fittest then why is the govt. providing billions of our tax dollars in subsidies to the coal industry and Wall Street for a failed technology scheme called clean coal? Why on earth are we subsidizing the petroleum industry or ethanol producing corn agribusiness? The fact is that the biggest hogs on the govt. teet are mega corporations and with them most of D.C.
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-coal-pollution/
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-coal-wallstreet/


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## Ashful (Dec 8, 2018)

begreen said:


> Local small farms are not exactly what I was talking about. They sell mostly to local markets and are not affected by tariffs. Large scale soybean and wheat are more the issue. Tariffs ultimately are a tax on the consumer and we are starting to feel that cost.



Got it.  I have to admit I really don’t know much about that, around here, farming means “dairy”.


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## bholler (Dec 8, 2018)

Ashful said:


> Got it.  I have to admit I really don’t know much about that, around here, farming means “dairy”.


And are dairy farms doing well?  They have been struggling here for a long time.  Most of the smaller dairy herds are gone here the only ones that can make it are the 400+ head herds.  And those are large factory operations.

Another big difference is those large farms qualify for more govt subsidies.


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## Ashful (Dec 8, 2018)

bholler said:


> And are dairy farms doing well?  They have been struggling here for a long time.  Most of the smaller dairy herds are gone here the only ones that can make it are the 400+ head herds.  And those are large factory operations.
> 
> Another big difference is those large farms qualify for more govt subsidies.


Most of those that do well here are either getting into specialty product that's not attractive to the bigger farms, or thru their farm stores.  You are right, that just selling commodity milk 1940's style is tough, for a smaller operation.


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## sportbikerider78 (Dec 10, 2018)

begreen said:


> Ask a farmer that lost 80% of their sales this year and have had to plow their crops into the ground.


I hope you are not suggesting farmers operate on a free market system.  Not that i'm disagreeing with your statement.  It is true that tariffs are stocking the system in soybean farmers favor here in the US...at least they did. 

I'm 100% for zero tariffs and subsidies.  There would be a ripple affect that would cripple some crops and expand others.  In a few years, industries would adjust and the markets would be real and healthy.  

Most Americans can't stomach or understand that though.  Some politician would make a national issue about 50 steel workers out of work, dairy not productive, sugar cane losing money in Hawaii and then bail them out.


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## sportbikerider78 (Dec 10, 2018)

begreen said:


> Local small farms are not exactly what I was talking about. They sell mostly to local markets and are not affected by tariffs. Large scale soybean and wheat farms are more the issue. Tariffs ultimately are a tax on the consumer and we are starting to feel that cost.
> 
> If its' survival of the fittest then why is the govt. providing billions of our tax dollars in subsidies to the coal industry and Wall Street for a failed technology scheme called clean coal? Why on earth are we subsidizing the petroleum industry or ethanol producing corn agribusiness? The fact is that the biggest hogs on the govt. teet are mega corporations and with them most of D.C.
> https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-coal-pollution/
> https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-coal-wallstreet/


...and they all kick back to those politicians.  

End the subsidies.  Let farmers grow whatever makes sense in that new economy and move on.  
Totally agree on oil and all energy as well...including alternate energy.  Clean the playing field.


----------



## vinny11950 (Dec 12, 2018)

jatoxico said:


> The competing ideas have already been laid out and I guess we will see how effective the stance our current admin has taken is. I am of the opinion that China has been unfair in its practices especially regarding intellectual property theft and they do manipulate markets and currency as part of a very long game they are playing.
> 
> The marriage of gov't and business has been effective for them. Their leaders pick which domestic regions will win and lose and invest in infrastructure based on goals they do not expect to entirely realize in their own life times (contrast that with our stock ticker watching economy). Not sure they will "fold" in any real way in the short term and I predict they are largely going to wait out the current admin, possibly even if elected to another term.
> 
> There may be some symbolic but unsubstantial concessions to give the appearance of change. Real change may only come from within if their population tires of the heavy handed control employed by the Chinese gov't.





jatoxico said:


> The competing ideas have already been laid out and I guess we will see how effective the stance our current admin has taken is. I am of the opinion that China has been unfair in its practices especially regarding intellectual property theft and they do manipulate markets and currency as part of a very long game they are playing.
> 
> The marriage of gov't and business has been effective for them. Their leaders pick which domestic regions will win and lose and invest in infrastructure based on goals they do not expect to entirely realize in their own life times (contrast that with our stock ticker watching economy). Not sure they will "fold" in any real way in the short term and I predict they are largely going to wait out the current admin, possibly even if elected to another term.
> 
> There may be some symbolic but unsubstantial concessions to give the appearance of change. Real change may only come from within if their population tires of the heavy handed control employed by the Chinese gov't.



China is only playing by the rules the West has setup over the years.  And now that they are winning, we are whining about it and want to unilaterally change the rules.  Why would they want to cooperate after they have been demonized and scapegoated for our failures?  

Imposing tariffs, talking trash and now having one of their corporate leaders arrested in Canada, are moves that are backing Chinese leaders into a corner and forcing them to retaliate or look weak.  It is a fight that neither side will win.  It will only create disruption in the markets costing some people money.  And what is the end game?  More manufacturing jobs here and $2,000 Iphones?

Already countries are creating their own trade accords without US input.  China is making trade deals all over the world establishing resources and markets.


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## jatoxico (Dec 12, 2018)

vinny11950 said:


> China is only playing by the rules the West has setup over the years.



I would have to disagree in large part. Regarding theft of intellectual property, China is not playing by our, the EU's or anybody else's rules. China is regularly named by the WTO and other international trade related organizations as the worst offender who disregard court decisions or through lax enforcement allow theft and illegal manufacturing to continue.

I agree we handed over a lot of our capacity chasing cheap labor and a low regulatory environment so that individual companies could boost their bottom lines and the stock prices of public companies. So yeah, that's on us.

I once saw an interview on this topic w/ a former ambassador to China whose name I will never remember. I'll try to explain as best I can a point he made multiple times. He stated that the Western "ethic" and Chinese "ethic" are completely different. He said that in Western society we value and honor agreements (look 'em in the eye, handshake means something). In China the ethic is more akin to; if you leave yourself open then I am not only able to, but _obligated_ to take advantage of your error.

The numerous instances you and I could cite of our litigious western societies disregard of the "handshake ethic" not withstanding, there does appear to be a difference in our cultural values. That was his opinion at any rate.

And I'm not saying that one ethical position or culture is better than the other, but once China entered the world market and made agreements to play by those rules then they must adhere to them.


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## Doug MacIVER (Dec 12, 2018)

Ashful said:


> I guess everyone’s situation is different, but I’m doing much better under the current administration, than any time in the prior 8 years.  It also seems that so are most people around me.  If you’re above water, higher rates just means a higher return on your assets, only those with more debt than liquid assets will see a net loss under higher interest rates.


 Same here, products that went missing in 14-15 are now back with confirmed orders? coincidence? also having luck with out living companies with three new customers in the shoe, apparel, and retail packaging. right now the dinosaur lives!


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## vinny11950 (Dec 14, 2018)

Doug MacIVER said:


> Same here, products that went missing in 14-15 are now back with confirmed orders? coincidence? also having luck with out living companies with three new customers in the shoe, apparel, and retail packaging. right now the dinosaur lives!



I hope you can thank our Federal Gov't for providing a fiscal stimulus to boost the economy from 2% gdp growth to 3%.  That's right, that $800 billion dollar deficit last year is in effect a fiscal stimulus (much like the Obama era Stimulus Package of $800 billion during the recession - which Republicans hated because it grew the debt).  So yes, Federal spending is in part responsible to this added growth.  

But if the economy is so strong why are the deficits growing again (Next year it is projected to be $1.1 trillion)?  When gdp expands, deficits come down.  But not this time.


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## Doug MacIVER (Dec 14, 2018)

vinny11950 said:


> I hope you can thank our Federal Gov't for providing a fiscal stimulus to boost the economy from 2% gdp growth to 3%.  That's right, that $800 billion dollar deficit last year is in effect a fiscal stimulus (much like the Obama era Stimulus Package of $800 billion during the recession - which Republicans hated because it grew the debt).  So yes, Federal spending is in part responsible to this added growth.
> 
> But if the economy is so strong why are the deficits growing again (Next year it is projected to be $1.1 trillion)?  When gdp expands, deficits come down.  But not this time.


 think you answered your own ?
 don't disagree with pp 1. both are stimuli but this past one came from reduced regs and tax, O's was past spending by congress.
pp#2 deficits don't decline if spending doesn't, spending is up, YES ? the BEAST GROWS

link to article from Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...t-hits-widest-on-record-for-month-of-november

while the left controls the $$out from house  bills 2019 forward.!?

CUT D-FENCE AND WATCH CHINA AND RUSSIA GO TIHSHOUSE!

ENJOY YOU WEEKEND


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## CaptSpiff (Dec 14, 2018)

Doug MacIVER said:


> CUT D-FENCE AND WATCH CHINA AND RUSSIA GO TIHSHOUSE!


Why do people post in code words I don't understand?

As for Defense spending, we can cut that by getting our butts out of the Middle East.



Doug MacIVER said:


> ENJOY YOU WEEKEND


Now that I understand, and I wish all of you the same.


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## Doug MacIVER (Dec 15, 2018)

CaptSpiff said:


> Why do people post in code words I don't understand?
> 
> As for Defense spending, we can cut that by getting our butts out of the Middle East.
> 
> ...


tihs=chit! but you already knew that, no?


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## CaptSpiff (Dec 15, 2018)

Doug MacIVER said:


> tihs=chit! but you already knew that, no?


I do now !  

I need a decoder ring. OMG, now i'm dating myself.    

(did you see how I put that OMG in there? I'm catching on)


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## Sawset (Dec 15, 2018)

sportbikerider78 said:


> ...and they all kick back to those politicians.
> 
> End the subsidies.  Let farmers grow whatever makes sense in that new economy and move on.
> Totally agree on oil and all energy as well...including alternate energy.  Clean the playing field.


I think we've been there already. And it didn't turn out well. Most of policies pertaining to farm subsidies, market constraints, incentives and land policies stem from the fiasco of the 30s. Policy makers understand that, and are determined not to go back to that. Most consumers and taxpayers don't.


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## Doug MacIVER (Dec 18, 2018)

CaptSpiff said:


> I do now !
> 
> I need a decoder ring. OMG, now i'm dating myself.
> 
> (did you see how I put that OMG in there? I'm catching on)


  OMG? Only(oh) my  God, good, ground, grind, graft, grid, grand, gramps, granite, ect  . geese (geez) get to to the pt.(point) folks here used to hate twitter? those decoder rings only led you to the cereal isle?


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## sportbikerider78 (Dec 20, 2018)

Sawset said:


> I think we've been there already. And it didn't turn out well. Most of policies pertaining to farm subsidies, market constraints, incentives and land policies stem from the fiasco of the 30s. Policy makers understand that, and are determined not to go back to that. Most consumers and taxpayers don't.


You either get a regulated market controlled by a very powerful elite few or a market controlled by very many (consumers).


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## bholler (Dec 21, 2018)

sportbikerider78 said:


> You either get a regulated market controlled by a very powerful elite few or a market controlled by very many (consumers).


An unregulated market is still controlled by a powerful few.


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## begreen (Dec 21, 2018)

bholler said:


> An unregulated market is still controlled by a powerful few.


Indeed. In our case over the past 40 yrs. they have systematically removed the safeguards step by step and shifted wealth to the top of the feeding chain, mostly via banking industry deregulation, but also on tax reductions for the wealthy. (Remember Savings & Loans banks? They disappeared in 8 yrs after 1980s deregulation.) "Free" markets seem to always go toward monopolization with wealth focussed on the top. The current result is that the American middle class has lost a lot of ground to the point where according to PEW research they may no longer the economic majority.


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## sportbikerider78 (Dec 26, 2018)

bholler said:


> An unregulated market is still controlled by a powerful few.


The collusion between the big bankers and the federal reserve is run by very very few powerful people at the total detriment of the value of our dollar and the long term saving of every American.


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## Ashful (Dec 26, 2018)

begreen said:


> The current result is that the American middle class has lost a lot of ground to the point where according to PEW research they may no longer the economic majority.



I don’t get it.  I see more kids of the middle class driving newer cars and carrying more expensive electronics than I ever owned at their age.  I see more adults also driving nicer cars and buying more Starbucks than my parents could ever afford.  It seems to me that the middle class is living better, than at any time in our young country’s history, and all you can do is whine to the contrary of what seems obvious to anyone on the street.  Where is the disconnect?


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## begreen (Dec 26, 2018)

Just as local weather does not necessarily reflect global climate change, nor does local economy reflect the state of the whole country. You live in a particularly wealthy area compared to the rest of the country. That and maybe people are getting more into debt?


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## bholler (Dec 26, 2018)

Ashful said:


> I don’t get it.  I see more kids of the middle class driving newer cars and carrying more expensive electronics than I ever owned at their age.  I see more adults also driving nicer cars and buying more Starbucks than my parents could ever afford.  It seems to me that the middle class is living better, than at any time in our young country’s history, and all you can do is whine to the contrary of what seems obvious to anyone on the street.  Where is the disconnect?


The disconnect is exactly what bg said come out to.the middle of the state and you will see quite a difference.  And there are many areas in allot worse shape than pa.


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## bholler (Dec 26, 2018)

sportbikerider78 said:


> The collusion between the big bankers and the federal reserve is run by very very few powerful people at the total detriment of the value of our dollar and the long term saving of every American.


I dont dissagree with that but deregulation of the banking industry caused the problems we are still recovering from.  Deregulation has never put more power in the hands of consumers


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## vinny11950 (Mar 6, 2019)

I am just going to leave these here

"U.S. Trade Gap Surged to $621 Billion in 2018, Highest in Decade"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...illion-in-2018-highest-in-decade?srnd=premium


"Federal budget deficit leaps 77 percent so far for fiscal 2019"

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-budget-deficit-leaps-77-percent-so-far-for-fiscal-2019/


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## Seasoned Oak (Mar 6, 2019)

Surge in imports in anticipation of tariffs, was to be expected. All these foreign made imported products while our own workforce deteriorates. Plenty of job openings in local warehouses,but no takers. In areas where Govt has not heavily subsidized the economy with public and borrowed dollars many are not doing so hot. Lots of young people around here overdosing on a daily and weekly basis. Seems like a larger percentage of young people today, look affluent but have no career goals or direction some spending what seems to be their parents money since many dont work. The Coroner carried out a 30 yr old 2 doors down from me last week another 30 something a few blocks away. Overdose epidemic.Fentynal everywhere. Even the places that seem thriving, take away the flood of federal dollars and borrowed dollars keeping the cities afloat and those would look the same or worse.  This small town is barely surviving on pensioners and disability checks. Pockets of prosperity with many areas in distress. More Taxes on the remaining productive folks will not save us. Not all bad but trending downward.
https://wnep.com/2011/08/10/coal-re...v6p11ZWTYyJ3XkZbFQrDsf-xhgHXxEyr_fyyH-SA8mVqE


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## Ashful (Mar 6, 2019)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Surge in imports in anticipation of tariffs, was to be expected. All these foreign made imported products while our own workforce deteriorates. Plenty of job openings in local warehouses,but no takers. In areas where Govt has not heavily subsidized the economy with public and borrowed dollars many are not doing so hot. Lots of young people around here overdosing on a daily and weekly basis. Seems like a larger percentage of young people today, look affluent but have no career goals or direction some spending what seems to be their parents money since many dont work. The Coroner carried out a 30 yr old 2 doors down from me last week another 30 something a few blocks away. Overdose epidemic.Fentynal everywhere. Even the places that seem thriving, take away the flood of federal dollars and borrowed dollars keeping the cities afloat and those would look the same or worse.  This small town is barely surviving on pensioners and disability checks. Pockets of prosperity with many areas in distress. More Taxes on the remaining productive folks will not save us. Not all bad but trending downward.
> https://wnep.com/2011/08/10/coal-re...v6p11ZWTYyJ3XkZbFQrDsf-xhgHXxEyr_fyyH-SA8mVqE



Your grandparents were making the same complaints, 50 years ago.  Think about how things must have looked to the older generation, in the late-1960’s.

I see a lot of things that bother me in “kids today”, but I think the overall trend is upward, in most regards.


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## Seasoned Oak (Mar 6, 2019)

Ashful said:


> Your grandparents were making the same complaints, 50 years ago.  Think about how things must have looked to the older generation, in the late-1960’s.
> I see a lot of things that bother me in “kids today”, but I think the overall trend is upward, in most regards.


Thats good to hear that some areas are doing well. I was around to see it 50 years ago as a teenager.


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## Ashful (Mar 6, 2019)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Thats good to hear that some areas are doing well. I was around to see it 50 years ago as a teenager.



Oh, I know that.  Who do you think your grandparents were complaining about?


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## paulnlee (Mar 7, 2019)

Ashful said:


> Your grandparents were making the same complaints, 50 years ago.  Think about how things must have looked to the older generation, in the late-1960’s.
> 
> I see a lot of things that bother me in “kids today”, but I think the overall trend is upward, in most regards.



I agree except for the "college" education they're getting.


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## begreen (Mar 8, 2019)

So now there is some economic data coming in. It's estimated that the tariffs are costing American businesses and consumers about $3 billion a month, plus another $1.5 billion a month in deadweight losses. Locally steel tariffs are costing the state $100s of millions extra on major infrastructure projects. The tariffs seem to not have slowed down exports very much. Many countries are finding other ready markets and the US trade deficit just hit a record level. The worst effect of these trade wars seems to be hitting Europe. Is that what we want? Do these policies prove beneficial or harmful in the long run?

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/03/opinion/how-goes-the-trade-war.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/december-2018-trade-data-from-u-s-commerce-department-11551877494


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## WinterinWI (Mar 8, 2019)

A NY Times opinion column... If the tariffs cured cancer, gave sight to the blind, and brought about an era of world peace they would still find a way to write a negative article about it.


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## paulnlee (Mar 8, 2019)

Yeah Winter, based on his links I'd say all is well


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## bholler (Mar 8, 2019)

WinterinWI said:


> A NY Times opinion column... If the tariffs cured cancer, gave sight to the blind, and brought about an era of world peace they would still find a way to write a negative article about it.


Yes an opinion peice based on real hard data.  You can dismiss the opinion as biased without question.  But can you explain to us how those numbers are telling us the tariffs have been beneficial?  I can tell you they haven't helped any in the chimney industry


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## Ashful (Mar 8, 2019)

Guys, you can’t discredit an article, just because of the source.  I’m as much a conservative as anyone on the forum, and I have to fight a similar gut reaction to anything from The NY Times, but it’s important that you hear all angles.  Yes, they are coloring a picture to fit their narrative, the truth always lies somewhere between MSNBC and Fox News, you owe it to yourself to watch both and make your own decision.


----------



## bholler (Mar 8, 2019)

Ashful said:


> Guys, you can’t discredit an article, just because of the source.  I’m as much a conservative as anyone on the forum, and I have to fight a similar gut reaction to anything from The NY Times, but it’s important that you hear all angles.  Yes, they are coloring a picture to fit their narrative, the truth always lies somewhere between MSNBC and Fox News, you owe it to yourself to watch both and make your own decision.


I couldn't agree more


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## Ashful (Mar 8, 2019)

bholler said:


> I couldn't agree more



Politics has become religion.  I’d like to think this public sentiment can’t last more than a generation in its current form, but I read examples from 50 years back that make me realize it’s been this way for longer than any of us realize.  Too many folks will always defend the dogma of one side or the other, without stopping to figure out which really agrees with their own ethics.


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## WinterinWI (Mar 8, 2019)

As far as the tariffs go, there are short term consequences to be sure, but personally, I'm fine with what is being tried. Better than just sitting around while jobs go overseas and store shelves are lined with products made in other countries. Only time will tell if it was a good long term strategy or not. It's too early to tell what the real long term effects of this policy are. 

Tariff free trade all around would be great. Only problem is, not all countries want to do that.


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## vinny11950 (Mar 9, 2019)

WinterinWI said:


> As far as the tariffs go, there are short term consequences to be sure, but personally, I'm fine with what is being tried. Better than just sitting around while jobs go overseas and store shelves are lined with products made in other countries. Only time will tell if it was a good long term strategy or not. It's too early to tell what the real long term effects of this policy are.
> 
> Tariff free trade all around would be great. Only problem is, not all countries want to do that.



Actually we already have a pretty good idea of what the changes in tariffs and taxes are doing...  Bigger trade deficits and bigger budget deficits (more federal debt to pass on to the next generation - where are the Tea Party deficit hawks when you need them?)

Anyway, if you don't like the way the New York Times tells the story, watch David Stockman (one of the fathers of Reaganomics / Reagan's OMB director) unload on Trump policies:

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/02/...ll-bring-down-an-economy-on-its-last-leg.html


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## WinterinWI (Mar 9, 2019)

vinny11950 said:


> Actually we already have a pretty good idea of what the changes in tariffs and taxes are doing...  Bigger trade deficits and bigger budget deficits (more federal debt to pass on to the next generation - where are the Tea Party deficit hawks when you need them?)
> 
> Anyway, if you don't like the way the New York Times tells the story, watch David Stockman (one of the fathers of Reaganomics / Reagan's OMB director) unload on Trump policies:
> 
> https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/02/...ll-bring-down-an-economy-on-its-last-leg.html



I'm guessing this thread is about to be shut down, so for the sake of the OP, I'll step out. I think I already violated forum rules with my original post. If the moderators wish to move this debate to the ash can, then I'd be happy to continue talking with you about this.


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## vinny11950 (Mar 9, 2019)

WinterinWI said:


> I'm guessing this thread is about to be shut down, so for the sake of the OP, I'll step out. I think I already violated forum rules with my original post. If the moderators wish to move this debate to the ash can, then I'd be happy to continue talking with you about this.



Taking a more narrow focus on the discussion, putting a tariff/tax on raw materials that are needed by US manufacturers is hurting US manufacturers - auto plants are slowing production, and some are thinking of moving production abroad.  This doesn't even account for retaliatory tariffs from other countries.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-china-trade-war-all-the-industries-hurt-by-us-tariffs-2018-11

A grounded view of the situation would be, "hey the trade deficit is getting worse, this policy is not working, let's change it because businesses are getting hurt."

Plus, you have to say labeling Canada a National Security Threat in order to impose tariffs is kind of a slap in the face of one of our greatest allies?

None of it makes sense to me, and the numbers are showing it.

At least I have Game of Thrones to look forward to in April.


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## Seasoned Oak (Mar 9, 2019)

If tariffs were so bad can someone explain why most other countries have high tariffs for many years and defend them to the death and will go kicking and screaming to give them up. Seems they have helped china achieve that super high GDP year after year. They seem to have the intended effect for other countries. Possibly because china fights the long game and the US caves after 1 negative quarter. And they know this.


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## Seasoned Oak (Mar 9, 2019)

vinny11950 said:


> Taking a more narrow focus on the discussion, putting a tariff/tax on raw materials that are needed by US manufacturers is hurting US manufacturers - auto plants are slowing production, and some are thinking of moving production abroad.  This doesn't even account for retaliatory tariffs from other countries.


 Short term pain for long term gain. There is a reason other countries are cleaning our clock.
Look at what they are doing, to find the answer to what we should be doing. Trying to turn this mess around is painful short term because its festered for 30 years.


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## Ashful (Mar 9, 2019)

Seasoned Oak said:


> If tariffs were so bad can someone explain why most other countries have high tariffs for many years and defend them to the death and will go kicking and screaming to give them up. Seems they have helped china achieve that super high GDP year after year. They seem to have the intended effect for other countries. Possibly because china fights the long game and the US caves after 1 negative quarter. And they know this.



You know, it’s funny that I started typing the very same thing last night.  Some of those I’ve seen criticize the Trump tariffs seem to be the same people who have lauded Germany and others for their aggressive tariff policies.


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## begreen (Mar 9, 2019)

WinterinWI said:


> A NY Times opinion column... If the tariffs cured cancer, gave sight to the blind, and brought about an era of world peace they would still find a way to write a negative article about it.





Ashful said:


> Guys, you can’t discredit an article, just because of the source.


FWIW, the source report was done by economists from Columbia and Princeton along with the NY Fed.
http://www.princeton.edu/~reddings/papers/CEPR-DP13564.pdf


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## begreen (Jul 3, 2019)

Tariffs update. The numbers are starting to speak for themselves. The tariffs have cost Americans and American businesses ~ $284 billion so far. And that is before accounting for the increased costs of goods due to other countries raising their tariffs in retaliation. That additional cost is estimated currently around $110 billion. Meanwhile the Chinese have played a strategic long game by reducing tariffs to other countries. China has lowered its tariffs, but not to the US, just toward everyone else. The net result is that US business agreements and trade deals are withering while trade relations amongst other countries are strengthening.
https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-in...-china-lower-its-tariffs-just-toward-everyone
A notable indicator of the effect of these tariffs is the troubling drop in freight shipping volumes. 
https://www.cassinfo.com/hubfs/Freight Payment /Transportation Indexes/Cass Freight Index/Cass Freight Index Report - May 2019.pdf


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## paulnlee (Jul 3, 2019)

https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2019...a-tariffs-are-working-and-helping-our-allies/

So many opinions


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## begreen (Jul 3, 2019)

My browser says that is not a trusted source, but according to the article it appears the trade gap increased in the May report?  The links previously provided provide a broader picture that incorporates the data from international sources. The linked reports are not really opinions as much as current, dry,  economic data. The actual costs of the tariffs are fact. They are paid by the importing business and consumer, not by the exporting country.


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## WinterinWI (Jul 3, 2019)

Lol, of course your browser says Breitbart isn't a trusted source, it's a conservative news company. I'm sure your browser would happily redirect you to the some of the others you frequently link to, NY Times, CNN ect.


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## begreen (Jul 3, 2019)

So much assuming. Browsers don't redirect, it's a BS plugin. It alerts for poor liberal sites like the Daily Kos too. There's no alert at The Wall St. Journal, or the National Review or The Washington Times. FWIW,. the NY Times is a pay site so I don't go there much. And CNN, meh.


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## bholler (Jul 3, 2019)

WinterinWI said:


> Lol, of course your browser says Breitbart isn't a trusted source, it's a conservative news company. I'm sure your browser would happily redirect you to the some of the others you frequently link to, NY Times, CNN ect.


Breitbart is not a conservative news organization.  It is by the admission of several of its head people an organization that alters or fabricates facts to meet their agenda.  Not exactly trusted news.  There are plenty of trusted news organizations with a conservative bias.  But breitbart isnt one.


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## begreen (Jul 3, 2019)

FYI, the links posted came from a conservative investment advisory firm.


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## paulnlee (Jul 4, 2019)

bholler said:


> Breitbart is not a conservative news organization.  It is by the admission of several of its head people an organization that alters or fabricates facts to meet their agenda.  Not exactly trusted news.  There are plenty of trusted news organizations with a conservative bias.  But breitbart isnt one.



Name them


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## begreen (Jul 4, 2019)

paulnlee said:


> Name them


I named 3. In addition to The Wall St. Journal, or the National Review and The Washington Times there's also the Weekly Standard, Washington Free Beacon, The Federalist, etc.


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## paulnlee (Jul 4, 2019)

I was asking Holler about his Brietbart comment.


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## bholler (Jul 4, 2019)

paulnlee said:


> I was asking Holler about his Brietbart comment.


List some what?   As far as reliable conservative news sources begreen has already listed some good ones.  I would add one American news Network.
As far as execs who have admitted to Breitbart being misleading our outright lying Alex  Marlow and Steve Bannon both have as well as others.  They have also been caught in multiple fabrications.


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## Seasoned Oak (Jul 4, 2019)

No one still had  an answer to the the question if why tariffs work so well for china,(and so many other countries)which is why they refuse to give them up. The Zero tariffs both way option is still on the table. China is not biting yet.  It seems only the US should let other countries dump their goods tariff free on us and keep stealing our jobs. Many countries have 100% tariffs on US goods.


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## SeanBB (Jul 4, 2019)

begreen said:


> Tariffs update. The numbers are starting to speak for themselves. The tariffs have cost Americans and American businesses ~ $284 billion so far. And that is before accounting for the increased costs of goods due to other countries raising their tariffs in retaliation. That additional cost is estimated currently around $110 billion. Meanwhile the Chinese have played a strategic long game by reducing tariffs to other countries. China has lowered its tariffs, but not to the US, just toward everyone else. The net result is that US business agreements and trade deals are withering while trade relations amongst other countries are strengthening.
> https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-in...-china-lower-its-tariffs-just-toward-everyone
> A notable indicator of the effect of these tariffs is the troubling drop in freight shipping volumes.
> https://www.cassinfo.com/hubfs/Freight Payment /Transportation Indexes/Cass Freight Index/Cass Freight Index Report - May 2019.pdf




That is a very interesting read, (piie.com).  thank you.


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## SeanBB (Jul 4, 2019)

paulnlee said:


> https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2019...a-tariffs-are-working-and-helping-our-allies/
> 
> So many opinions




I almost clicked on that but saw 'breitbart' in the link and decided not to. But thanks anyway.


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## bholler (Jul 4, 2019)

Seasoned Oak said:


> No one still had  an answer to the the question if why tariffs work so well for china,(and so many other countries)which is why they refuse to give them up. The Zero tariffs both way option is still on the table. China is not biting yet.  It seems only the US should let other countries dump their goods tariff free on us and keep stealing our jobs. Many countries have 100% tariffs on US goods.


First off we were not tariff free to start with.  But to answer you question why it works for some and not us is pretty simple.  Their products are in demand ours generally are not.  So they are in a position to be able to dictate the market.  We simply are not


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## Seasoned Oak (Jul 4, 2019)

bholler said:


> Their products are in demand ours generally are not.


 Our products  will never be in demand when other countries make them too expensive to buy, by charging high tariffs, while we do not. Zero tariffs is the desired outcome. They do this to discourage their population from buying foreign products over domestically produced ones thereby protecting their jobs and market share. A very simple and effective concept. When prices are equal, american goods are very much in demand.


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## bholler (Jul 4, 2019)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Our products  will never be in demand when other countries make them too expensive to buy, by charging high tariffs, while we do not. Zero tariffs is the desired outcome. They do this to discourage their population from buying foreign products over domestically produced ones thereby protecting their jobs and market share. A very simple and effective concept. When prices are equal, american goods are very much in demand.


What products are you referring to that would be in great demand without foreign tariffs?


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## Seasoned Oak (Jul 5, 2019)

bholler said:


> What products are you referring to that would be in great demand without foreign tariffs?


https://www.marketingtochina.com/attractive-u-s-products-chinese-consumer/   A survey from a boston consulting group revealed 61% of chinese people would actually pay more for american products considering them safer and less likely to be "fake" . American produced Infant products are one of those more trusted. Iv seen this first hand where foreign people are very distrustfull of their own countries products and consider them inferior to foreign products as well as to american products. Even when prices are the same. Sounds like they are expressing the same low opinion of their own countries products as you seem to be.


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## begreen (Jul 5, 2019)

Apple products are coveted in China. Many of our food, nutritional and skin care products sell well there. Oddly enough they also love KFC chicken and Pepsi.


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## bholler (Jul 5, 2019)

I know products from American companies are in demand elsewhere.  But are they American products?  I know we export lots of agricultural goods but after the tariffs that has dropped off and other countries are ramping up production to take our places.  As far as apple and clothing yes they may be from American companies but probably not American made.


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## blades (Jul 5, 2019)

Import this import that, final assembly might be here.  all about the bottom line in the corporate world. quality has gone out the door in a front end loader made in china.


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## Seasoned Oak (Jul 5, 2019)

begreen said:


> Apple products are coveted in China. Many of our food, nutritional and skin care products sell well there. Oddly enough they also love KFC chicken and Pepsi.


In my frequent travels to asia in the last 30 yrs iv noticed that most people iv encountered consider anything american made to be a premium brand. It usually carries a premium price as well due to the 100% tarrif loaded into the price. I encountered the exact same thing in Costa Rica where there is also a 100% tarrif on imported goods. Someone should tell these countries that tariffs don't work cuz they sure seem to luv em.


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## begreen (Jul 5, 2019)

Isn't there a Costco in San Jose, Costa Rica? Is everything US made 100% more than in the states?


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## Ashful (Jul 5, 2019)

blades said:


> Import this import that, final assembly might be here.  all about the bottom line in the corporate world. quality has gone out the door in a front end loader made in china.


I have to disagree with you on this, blades.  Manufacturers can only afford to produce what people want to buy.  Lawn tractors became lighter and cheaper after the 1960's, because customers favored buying the cheaper garbage over the more expensive options.  There's usually a niche market for the quality item, but as more customers favor the cheaper option, the cost of producing the quality item in smaller volumes becomes even higher.  Nothing new, economics 201.

But I'd argue that the functional quality of consumer goods today is phenomenally higher than it was 40 years ago.  Yes, things might be lighter, and contain more plastic than metal, but the truth is they usually work better today.  Think back to your 1970's or 1980's lawnmower, dishwasher, chainsaw... your 1970's American car?

Also, I am old enough to remember when "made in Japan" meant junk.  Today, they make some of the highest quality products in the world.  Some folks on this forum are old enough to remember some of the 1940's and 50's machine tool garbage coming out of Germany as absolute junk, not to mention the 1940's East German toys.  Today, we see "made in Germany" as a mark of quality.  Our kids will likely see the same in China, just give them a few decades.


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## begreen (Jul 5, 2019)

I had an admitted bias against Chinese-made goods for years. Then, I bought a top-end, heavy duty 1/2" Makita lithium-ion drill. It was pricey, but I had good experience with Makitas and hey, they're made in Japan. (And yes I remember when Sony broke the myth of Made in Japan = junk) It was only after I had the Makita for a few weeks that I noticed the Made in China sticker. I was pretty upset for a bit, but then I built our woodshed, with lots of drilling and screwing and then our greenhouse. The drill turned out to be a real workhorse. It's still going fine after 8 yrs of steady use. China can make crap or they can make very good stuff. It all depends on what the customer wants and is willing to pay for.


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## Seasoned Oak (Jul 5, 2019)

begreen said:


> Isn't there a Costco in San Jose, Costa Rica? Is everything US made 100% more than in the states?


When i was there(its been awhile) anything US was a hot commodity. An Imported 25k car was 50k. The govt does this to protect domestic production and turn a nice profit on the rich who will buy anything at any price. I remember Levis jeans being pretty pricey. Funny though US drug companies sell their drugs way below US price abroad. I could get some things that were $60 to $70 for like $2, like my prescription eye drops. I would think costco would source a lot of its products locally if they have a store there.


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## Seasoned Oak (Jul 5, 2019)

Ashful said:


> Our kids will likely see the same in China, just give them a few decades.


Lots of junk still coming out of china. They can make higher quality goods if the demand is there and the customer is willing to pay.


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## Seasoned Oak (Jul 5, 2019)

begreen said:


> I had an admitted bias against Chinese-made goods for years.  China can make crap or they can make very good stuff. It all depends on what the customer wants and is willing to pay for.


Given the choice id prefer made in Japan over China. And made in the US over either.


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## begreen (Jul 5, 2019)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Given the choice id prefer made in Japan over China. And made in the US over either.


Agreed. Point being that the Chinese can make a good product. The iPhone is a testament to that.


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## blades (Jul 5, 2019)

Ok Ashful I give in .     my only comment is you get what you pay for 90% of the time.    I do remember the Japan items, and admittedly there was still a lot of  less than nice thoughts about Japan in the 60's. The turn around from the late 50's to mid 60's as to equipment out of Japan was nothing short of fantastic- driven by the advent of solid state components and the simply amazing electronics developments that took place in a span of less than 10 years and we were not even into the computer craze as such at that time. But that is another story unto itself. I was still learning the old iron ( home grown)  when the first punch tape driven machines became available.  about 1970 we got a brand new German 16 x60 lathe- it was a thing of beauty compared to to the Southbends  and Sebastions  on the floor. Difficulty was everything about it was in German- no multilingual manuals and of course totally metric (there were those that never did get on board with that- prints always specked in decimal  so to me it wasn't that big a deal)  There is an art to using old iron,  which is fading quickly.


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## Seasoned Oak (Jul 5, 2019)

begreen said:


> Agreed. Point being that the Chinese can make a good product. The iPhone is a testament to that.


As long as as they can weasel the tech out of the american company by hook or by crook. Whats the chance China developed their own Iphone equiv. without Apple handing it to them, slim to none?. They steal so much from us it surprising we still do any business with them at all. I feel they are NOT our friend .Never have been, never will be. The kind that will stab you in the back at every turn if given the chance. Once they have built up  their military just with the interest we pay them($80 million per day) it will be a scary world IMO.


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## Ashful (Jul 5, 2019)

Seasoned Oak said:


> I feel they are NOT our friend .Never have been, never will be.


There are no friends in business.  Never have been, never will be.


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## begreen (Jul 5, 2019)

The Chinese are smart people and hard workers. They can and have developed good tech on their own and have done a soft landing on the moon. In some areas they are polevaulting ahead of us.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/24/...rrc-373-mph-rolling-stock-magnetic-levitation


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## Seasoned Oak (Jul 6, 2019)

begreen said:


> The Chinese are smart people and hard workers. They can and have developed good tech on their own and have done a soft landing on the moon. In some areas they are polevaulting ahead of us.
> https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/24/...rrc-373-mph-rolling-stock-magnetic-levitation


Moon landing. That puts them 50 yrs behind us in that area. And no doubt they stole some of the tech for that from us. But as far as openly stealing everything they can from us,and coercing companies to willing give up tech, certainly in that area they are polevaulting ahead of us. And they have been better trade negotiators then us for a long time. I do admire the chinese people individually ,some of our best friends are chinese. Very hard working ,business owners.


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## blades (Jul 6, 2019)

the primary problem with chi-com ( not just China) manufacturing is lack of very close supervision- with out that they substitute inferior components to raise their profit margin.  Course that goes on stateside as well.  Just ask Dell computers about capacitors few years back for one example.  One of my customers had a large order of components made in China the prototypes were fine - production  items, well I had to  re-machine  50% of the order, 25 % were not able to be saved and the last 25% were almost ok but you had to tweak them a bit with hand files. I got some front end parts from a local  auto store - made off shore somewhere- diameters were apx 30% less than oem- funny part was I then went and got oem and the price per piece was the same.  They were not made stateside either but qc was involved. Both GE and GM have moved quite a bit of R&D to chi-com.


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## Ashful (Jul 6, 2019)

begreen said:


> The Chinese are smart people and hard workers.


When I was in grad school, I was the only non-Chinese student in my class in my lab.  This is unfortunately typical, American students seem to be more focused on immediate gratification than delayed benefit, or maybe they feel more college loan pressure.  Whatever the reason, those dedicated Chinese kids reminded me a lot of my grandparents generation, our “depression generation” or “greatest generation”.  They moved half way around the world, worked their asses off, and lived in some pretty deplorable rental housing together... for the chance to get an American advanced degree. 

I get the impression that they are working incredibly hard in China, in an environment that is changing so quickly, that few of us can actually wrap our minds around what they’re seeing.  One of the guys with which I became close friends went home to visit his family after his first year, and couldn’t even recognize his town, skyscraper foundations had replaced bungalows all over town.

I was always the kid that got thru school too easy, aced exams with no effort, while getting in trouble for never doing my homework.  Usually the smartest in the class, until I was dumped in with this batch of kids from China.  I went from being the one always helping my classmates thru courses, to needing help to keep up with most of these guys, a humbling adjustment.  One was easily the smartest person I have ever met in my life, Einstein-level genius, and more than half of them could run circles around me.  We were all working on our Ph.D EE’s in semiconductor physics, the coursework was not light.


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## bholler (Jul 6, 2019)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Moon landing. That puts them 50 yrs behind us in that area. And no doubt they stole some of the tech for that from us. But as far as openly stealing everything they can from us,and coercing companies to willing give up tech, certainly in that area they are polevaulting ahead of us. And they have been better trade negotiators then us for a long time. I do admire the chinese people individually ,some of our best friends are chinese. Very hard working ,business owners.


You do realize we and every other country steals tech also right?


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## Seasoned Oak (Jul 6, 2019)

bholler said:


> You do realize we and every other country steals tech also right?


Sure to some extent,but we shouldnt be rewarding them for it. And allowing it so easily. IMO


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## Seasoned Oak (Jul 6, 2019)

Ashful said:


> This is unfortunately typical, American students seem to be more focused on immediate gratification than delayed benefit, or maybe they feel more college loan pressure.  Whatever the reason, those dedicated Chinese kids reminded me a lot of my grandparents generation, our “depression generation” or “greatest generation”.  They moved half way around the world, worked their asses off, and lived in some pretty deplorable rental housing together... for the chance to get an American advanced degree.
> 
> I get the impression that they are working incredibly hard in China, in an environment that is changing so .


I was just thinking the exact same thing. Our chinese friends work their tail off. All kinds of hours under grueling conditions.They are helpful, kind and generous and did put up with a bit of racism when they first got here. I have a lot a respect and admiration for that kind of work ethic as i rarely see it anymore. Just last week i was doing an emergency job with the help of 2 people with that kind of work ethic. Our Ages are 58, 63 and 66. We also know hundreds of Filipinos. Most are professionals ,much younger than i but same great work ethic as our chinese friends.


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## Ashful (Jul 6, 2019)

Seasoned Oak said:


> I was just thinking the exact same thing. Our chinese friends work their tail off. All kinds of hours under grueling conditions.They are helpful, kind and generous and did put up with a bit of racism when they first got here. I have a lot a respect and admiration for that kind of work ethic as i rarely see it anymore. Just last week i was doing an emergency job with the help of 2 people with that kind of work ethic. Our Ages are 58, 63 and 66. We also know hundreds of Filipinos. Most are professionals ,much younger than i but same great work ethic as our chinese friends.


It's just the cycle of things, I think.  Our depression-era parents and grandparents had it rough.  Their space-age kids and gen-X grandkids had it a little easier, and that trend continued thru the millenials.  Those Fillipinos and Chinese are seeing the same sort of adversity as our grandparents, and are rising to the challenge.  The same may be said for my grandkids.  What goes around, comes around.


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## bholler (Jul 6, 2019)

Seasoned Oak said:


> Sure to some extent,but we shouldnt be rewarding them for it. And allowing it so easily. IMO


I agree we shouldn't allow it so easily but we can't act high and mighty on many issues when we are guilty of allot of the things we complain about as well.


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## Ashful (Jul 6, 2019)

bholler said:


> I agree we shouldn't allow it so easily but we can't act high and mighty on many issues when we are guilty of allot of the things we complain about as well.



WW2 German rocket technology, for example, which kick-started our own space program.


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## begreen (Jul 7, 2019)

Ashful said:


> WW2 German rocket technology, for example, which kick-started our own space program.


True, though the foundation work was American. Robert Goddard was testing and developing rockets in the 1910s. He developed and patented a lot of the technology taken for granted today: first multi-stage rocket, first liquid fuel rocket, 3-axis stabilizer, gyroscopes, steerable exhaust, etc.. Most of this work was done without govt. support. In the early 30s, the Germans borrowed heavily on this knowledge and developed it, at first for peaceful use, later for war. Then we imported vonBraun.


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## vinny11950 (Jul 26, 2019)

I am old enough to remember tax cut Republicans saying if we pass the tax cuts and deregulation, GDP growth will be 4-5%. 

The tax cuts couldn't even break 3% growth year over year.  The growth looks very much like it was under the Obama years.





https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/26/gdp-growth-fails-to-hit-trumps-3percent-target-in-2018.html

And trillion dollar deficits are back, baby.  Except a Democrat is not in the White House so Republicans don't care about deficits anymore.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/24/investing/trillion-dollar-deficit/index.html


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