# To EV or not to EV



## Burnin Up (May 17, 2016)

I am considering buying a used EV, a Leaf in particular.  I have followed the Leaf since it's inception in 2011 and while it does have some drawbacks (range, battery thermal management) it seems to have worked out really well for a subset of users.

Ideally I would love a Tesla Model 3 BUT it is too far out to wait for a car that is needed this year and the cost is more then I am able to swing comfortably.

I do not drive much, less then 10K per year.  Daily commute is 15 miles round trip. I know that there are Leaf drivers on this board and have read their postings. (Woodgeek, this means you ;-))

My questions are as follows.

Are you happy with your Leaf after a couple of years? Would you buy it again?
Would you buy a used EV, why or why not?
Would you buy the S trim level (my phone is my GPS, no need for NAVI) or a higher level of trim and why?
Would you wait for additional options to be on the market to enhance competitive pricing?
Bolt? Ioniq? 

My current ride, if it matters, is a 2000 Toyota Corrolla with 110K miles on it.  It runs really well and is being handed down to a family member to get her through college.

All opinions welcome, bring it on guys.


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## EatenByLimestone (May 17, 2016)

What reason makes you want an EV over another Corolla?


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## Burnin Up (May 17, 2016)

EatenByLimestone said:


> What reason makes you want an EV over another Corolla?


I have excess solar capacity that I want to make use of and dwindling interest in supporting the use of fossil fuels and all that comes with that choice.


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## Highbeam (May 18, 2016)

Great post. I too have a 15 mile round trip commute, super cheap electricity, and have noticed the very low prices on lease return leafs. I would prefer a volt because they are nicer looking and the engine allows more range but they are not cheap at all.


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## Seasoned Oak (May 18, 2016)

Iv become allergic to oil in all forms ,i have oil heat backup and just try to avoid using it as much as possible. I dont use much gasoline on a monthly basis but would feel better not using any. I think the country and the world would be much better off if we replaced all plausible ICE transportation with something less polluting to the environment and to the economy. Im thinking of an EV just to kick the oil habit completely not to save money. I just dont drive far enough often enough to save any money on it.
But iv recently seen 2 year old volts selling for about $15 K ,im very tempted. If that were a small pickup truck or van id already have one.


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## begreen (May 18, 2016)

We have solar arrays and bought a Volt 3 yrs ago. No regrets. My preference is toward the Volt, particularly as a one car solution. 85% of our miles have been all electric, but it's also great to know we can head out on a trip without range anxiety. The fit and finish, handling and ride comfort of the Volt over the competition sold us. It's a great road car and made in the US.


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## Seasoned Oak (May 18, 2016)

$4 gas is coming back at some point, and by that time these bargain EVs will be gone.


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## Lake Girl (May 18, 2016)

Battery changes on the 2016 Leaf may be what is triggering those trade-ins.  Apparently new battery allows for larger range.  Interesting read on Canadian stats in 2015 ... http://www.fleetcarma.com/electric-vehicle-sales-canada-june-2015/

Current incentive on the Volt LT is around $11,000 Cdn ... not sure what the vehicle costs though  Based off US pricing around $33,000 before taxes.


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## woodgeek (May 19, 2016)

Burnin Up said:


> My questions are as follows.
> 
> Are you happy with your Leaf after a couple of years? Would you buy it again?
> Would you buy a used EV, why or why not?
> ...



The wife and I are very happy, and have put 15k miles our 2013MY Leaf S, that we leased in May 2014.  We leased, since we figured we would want something better in 2017, given the rapidly maturing tech.

I got a '$200/mo' lease with a couple $k down, (came out to $240/mo after add ons), and I figured that the depreciation and repairs on the car it replaced was $100/mo, and gas savings would be another $100/mo.  In the end, gas savings are now down to $50, and our insurance went up more like $75/mo (the wife pays that bill).

So, its a hell of car for $40/mo (like I'd hoped) OR for $150/mo, what it actually costs me over the previous >150k mile car it replaced. 

No regrets....and it will still be going strong a year from now when we return it.

On the used thing, I would want to know about battery health.....if it lived in this region for the last few years, you are probably ok.  It is also clear that the 2012 and before batteries are not as durable as the ones that came after.  Have the 2013s started to show up used yet?  IMO, in our climate the no thermal control is a non-issue with the 2013 and later batteries.   The 2012s all seem to have both age and heat related degradation, and I would not like that.  My 2013 might have a few % less range than two years ago, but not really noticeable and I still have all 12 'bars'.

I would still do the price compare with a lease, given how it will be a different world in just a couple more years.  The Bolt is rolling out nationwide in less than year, and would be much more appealing than a (Gen 1) Leaf.  The Gen 2 Leaf will appear **in a surprise** and they will have to dump all their Gen 1 inventory.  Who knows when?

So, if you get a $200/mo lease, figure $2k down + $2400/yr for 3 years for a 2016 Leaf S (with 24 kWh batt) = $9400 for 3 years ownership.

That car will be a lot more serviceable for the price than a used leaf (I think).  I know there are lots of $10k used leafs out there that have batteries that are degraded by 25% or more, and with 2012 and earlier batteries.....where will those be in 3 years?  I **think** a good shape 2013 MY and later used Leaf (almost as good as a 2016 lease), which would prob hold up well for three years, would go for a lot more than $10k.

So, if you can get a beat, older leaf for $9k, which has zero resale in three years, or a $9400 new one leased (and give it back in three years) I would take the latter.

If you can get a nice 2013 or later used leaf for $15k, what do you think you could sell it for in three or four years (in 2019-20) with 60 miles range when there are loads of new 200+ mile EVs out there, and the first used Bolts are starting to come off lease?  You'd need to make $5-6k just to beat the lease price.

Of course, insurance costs have not been factored in.

I would still get the S trim...I use the phone for everything, and got a third-part bluetooth adapter in the aux to override the crappy built in one.


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## Seasoned Oak (May 20, 2016)

Whats the main reason to choose the Leaf over the volt, Cost? Wanting more electric range?  Must be an important reason to give up a range extending motor like the volt.


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## begreen (May 20, 2016)

Cost and all electric range would be my guess. I looked at all EV and EV hybrid solutions and the Volt was the only one with a hatchback that had no battery bump when the seats are folded down. Prius was next but the EV range was poor and I didn't like the center dashboard instrumentation and odd center console. My only regret with the Volt is that most of  the good changes that users suggested to Chevy were actually listened to and incorporated into the Gen 2 Volt.


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## peakbagger (May 20, 2016)

Plenty of good deals on off lease Volts. Many were fleet use and ran mostly on gas as they didn't get charged very often. With the new Volt coming out, it will drive the price of the used ones down. Generally electric vehicles only make economic sense for those who run a lot of miles to offset the high initial cost so a low mileage driver is typically buying for other reasons such as environmental. In this case the best electric is the cheapest.

An electrical engineer I used to work with bought a new Leaf, after a few months even he admitted it was dumb decision. Apparently they aren't well suited for cold climates, there is some sort of heater but it doesn't seem to work very well and it burns up the charge.


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## woodgeek (May 20, 2016)

We were looking for a second car as a daily commuter and already had a big gaswagon for long family roadtrips.

At that point, the ICE in the second car is totally unnecessary....I guess I am one of those people that thinks plug-in hybrids are a weird bandaid sol'n needed for some applications (not mine) and until 200+ mile BEVs become widely available.  Just carrying two whole drivetrains seems kinda crazy to me. 

And the Volt leases were way more expensive....no point.


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## begreen (May 20, 2016)

The Volt and the BMW i3 don't really have two drive trains. They have the electric drive and a genset to extend range for the electric drive system.


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## woodgeek (May 21, 2016)

I hate to be that guy...but the Volt has a funny transmission that allows direct mechanical drive from the engine to the wheels.  Didn't they crow about that a lot at launch...because it allows higher gas mpg than the indirect route?

And for plug-in hybrids, I am fine with other people having them if they want 'em, just not as appealing to me as a much 'simpler' BEV.


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## semipro (May 21, 2016)

Seasoned Oak said:


> $4 gas is coming back at some point


I wonder about this what with all the projections of future EV usage.  
Its hard to see demand increasing all that much unless they start using it to generate grid power.
There's also an awful lot invested in production infrastructure and distribution systems so prices may depress well below market based on recovering investment costs.   
I'm not sure what other uses gasoline as a fraction of crude oil has other than transportation.


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## semipro (May 21, 2016)

Burnin Up said:


> I am considering buying a used EV, a Leaf in particular.


One thing the Leaf seems to have going for it over many of the alternatives is Nissan's investment in vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology.  Taking advantage of this at your home might allow you to have additional backup power and sell "peak' power back to grid to offset costs.


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## woodgeek (May 21, 2016)

semipro said:


> One thing the Lead seems to have going for it over many of the alternatives is Nissan's investment in vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology.  Taking advantage of this at your home might allow you to have additional backup power and sell "peak' power back to grid to offset costs.



I think V2G is a fun concept....and it will become popular for backup. I almost dropped the $300 to put together a 3 kW system to run my house loads off my LEAF, but never got around to it just cuz I'm too cheap.  Having a 200 mile EV that I owned, with a 50-60 kWh  battery...I'll prob got there.

For grid balancing V2G, I'm less excited.  If my car traction battery gets ~1000 full cycles and is then beat, so a 200 mile EV gets 200,000 miles before it needs a new battery, then the cost per kWh per cycle is not zero.  The grid would have to pay me 'mileage' to make it worth my while....and I expect specialized grid batteries will be cheaper per kWh per cycle (and a lot heavier and bigger per kWh).  IOW, I expect there to be specialization...the best vehicle batteries and best grid battery (i.e. cheapest) will diverge if they haven't already.

Of course, giving the utility some control over charging times to soak up excess RE production, or to offset peak demand times or the duck curve....well, duh. THAT makes perfect sense...but thats G2V demand response, not V2G.


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## Ashful (May 21, 2016)

Short commute, so MPG-irrelevant (... or irreverent?).  Go SRT Hellcat Charger.  What's more practical than a large family sedan with 707 hp?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## woodgeek (May 21, 2016)

With the short commute you're **supposed** to ride your bicycle. 

I guess you didn't get the green memo


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## EatenByLimestone (May 21, 2016)

Ashful said:


> Short commute, so MPG-irrelevant (... or irreverent?).  Go SRT Hellcat Charger.  What's more practical than a large family sedan with 707 hp?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



That may be the most time efficient option!   LOL


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## Highbeam (May 21, 2016)

woodgeek said:


> With the short commute you're **supposed** to ride your bicycle.
> 
> I guess you didn't get the green memo



I wish I could. Our roads are extremely dangerous for biking. No shoulders, high traffic volumes, high speeds, oh and hills. I've got the perfect bike and can easily ride 50 miles non stop on our recreational paved trail system to nowhere.


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## begreen (May 21, 2016)

woodgeek said:


> I hate to be that guy...but the Volt has a funny transmission that allows direct mechanical drive from the engine to the wheels.  Didn't they crow about that a lot at launch...because it allows higher gas mpg than the indirect route?


We've had it cut in once in Portland while climbing a very steep hill with no battery reserve. Now we drive in mountain mode on long trips which keeps a 15 mile battery reserve capacity. It hasn't happened since then, even when driving in our high mountains.


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## Ashful (May 21, 2016)

woodgeek said:


> With the short commute you're **supposed** to ride your bicycle.
> 
> I guess you didn't get the green memo


You'd have to have a death wish to ride a bicycle anywhere around here.  Narrow farm roads, consistently-ignored 45 mph speed limits, no shoulders, no double yellow lines, and too many folks texting while driving big SUVs and pickups.  There are a lot of advantages to living in eastern PA, but modernized roads are not among them.


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## Seasoned Oak (May 21, 2016)

semipro said:


> I wonder about this what with all the projections of future EV usage.
> Its hard to see demand increasing all that much unless they start using it to generate grid power.
> There's also an awful lot invested in production infrastructure and distribution systems so prices may depress well below market based on recovering investment costs.
> I'm not sure what other uses gasoline as a fraction of crude oil has other than transportation.


WIth the amount of electrics they are selling its not yet making much difference in demand. Once population growth meets aging oilfield output,we may see real peak oil. Population growth both here and in asia is the biggest factor IMO. Oil drops like a rock on oversupply ,it will go the other way just as fast at the slightest hint of a shortage.


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## Redbarn (May 27, 2016)

We have had a BMW I3 Rex for a year now.
We do a 500 mile each way journey every month and my wife now uses the I3 for this journey.

When she started, there were only 2 Level 3 fast chargers on the route. 
This meant the procedure was to drive on battery till the battery is down to 6% charge. 
The Rex then starts up automatically.
Drive on the Rex for another 70 till the range is 10 miles or so. 
Fill up with gas (1.9 galls maximum fill) or find a fast charger.
Repeat this cycle till you are there.

There are 5 x Level 3 fast chargers en route now so less than 100 miles is done on the Rex.
Level 2 chargers take too long to charge (circa 3 hours) and so the 20 min charges at Level 3 CCS fast chargers is the way to go.

As more charging infrastructure is added, an EV becomes a completely usable vehicle.
The real genius of Tesla is in investing in setting up the fast charging infrastructure.
This makes their cars usable as everyday transport.
The other manufacturers have missed this point completely and will surely suffer the consequences.
As 200 mile EVs become available, using an EV as primary transport becomes sensibly possible.


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## Circus (May 28, 2016)

My biggest concern would be battery life. I've observed hybrids save on fuel only to lose the savings when replacing the battery. Wouldn't EV be worse?


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## woodgeek (May 28, 2016)

Circus said:


> My biggest concern would be battery life. I've observed hybrids save on fuel only to lose the savings when replacing the battery. Wouldn't EV be worse?



A good question.  Let's say that Li-ion EV batteries cost $300/kWh, and that they are good for 1000 full cycles (or 2000 50% discharge cycles, etc), before the battery needs to be replaced.  In some sense, the electricity going to the drive motor costs whatever I pay to get it from the utility...like $0.15/kWh PLUS the cost of a battery cycle = $300kWh/1000cycles = $0.30/kWh, nearly 2X what it costs to buy....storage, especially mobile storage is expensive.

If I compute the cost per mile to 'fuel' my EV at $0.15/kWh it looks like a steal, but at $0.45/kWh not so much.  Right?

In the case of my LEAF, however, the battery cost is built into my upfront cost, although you can argue that the upfront is 'hiding' some of the fuel cost.  When I was figuring out my total cost of ownership, TCO, however, since I had no intention of replacing my battery during my lease, then this 'extra cost' was indeed accounted for....in the price of the 3 year lease.

Now, if my leaf gets 85 miles on a full charge, then it needs a new battery at only 85,000 miles, when an ICE car might be expected to have a good residual used car value.  In the case of a LEAF with 80k miles, the value of the used car should be less than that of an equivalent ICE car with 80k miles by the cost of a replacement battery ($8k at $300/kWh).  Since a lot of used, good condition sedans with $80k miles are worth maybe $10-15k, you can see that the LEAF would be worth very little...maybe $2-7k.  And this about right.

An important thing here is that the rest of the car is pretty cheap...no exhaust system, no oil system, no fuel system, no transmission, no belts, little brake wear due to regen, very little scheduled maintenance.  So you still win.  If you count the battery cost as a fuel cost, then you have to take it off the upfront cost and the car is really cheap upfront.  If you count it on the upfront, the car is a bit expensive, but not that much and then the fuel is really cheap and so is the maintenance.  Bottom line: the TCO of the Gen 1 BEVs like the LEAF is quite favorable DESPITE the $300/kWh battery.

Note that a plug-in EV (or hybrid) has a smaller battery, but doesn't save on all the ICE stuff....so in the end the TCO is worse than the BEV.

----------------------------------------------------------------

The cool thing about the Gen 2 BEVs is that now the battery capacity is larger, for 200 miles on a full charge, and the costs are expected to be closer to $100 kWh (since prices have fallen since 2010 when the LEAF was developed).  This means that if they still last 1000 cycles, then the battery lasts 200,000 miles rather than 85k, similar to expectations for an ICE car...and the upfront cost of the 200 mile battery is less than the upfront cost of the 80 mile battery on my 2013 LEAF.  And still the same very low drivetrain and maintenance cost as the Gen 1 BEV.

What a difference....upfront is less...and can approach the upfront of an ICE car, the fuel cost is still low (if the battery cost is in the upfront) and it has a useable 200 mile range and 200k mile lifespan.  MUCH nicer than the Leaf or other Gen 1s.  And even though the Leaf has a respectably low lifetime TCO...the Gen 2 has even lower TCO, and starting to look very appealing as a commuter car if the 200 mile range is acceptable for your needs.


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## begreen (May 28, 2016)

Circus said:


> My biggest concern would be battery life. I've observed hybrids save on fuel only to lose the savings when replacing the battery. Wouldn't EV be worse?


The battery should last at least 100K miles or more. When we sold our 7 yr old Prius the battery showed no sign of degradation. Locally cabs have regularly gotten up to 200K out of the battery. 

This article points out, many folks would not replace the battery at the dealers, but instead would pick one up at a junkyard for about $500.
http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/...n-how-does-the-toyota-prius-hold-up/index.htm


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## Redbarn (May 28, 2016)

Circus said:


> My biggest concern would be battery life. I've observed hybrids save on fuel only to lose the savings when replacing the battery. Wouldn't EV be worse?



We leased our BMW I3 because the battery technology is changing so rapidly that the resale value at 2 years is probably circa 40% of new.  BMW and/or the dealers are going to take a big financial hit on these Gen 1 EVs as they priced the lease residual at circa 70% of new.
Looking locally, there are 3 year old Leafs with no more than 30,000 miles being offered in the $10k, $11k price range.
Nothing kills resale value more than a new model in the showrooms with more EV range.

The 2017 I3 model is already being offered with about 30% more EV range in the same package envelope.
So battery life is not a concern as much as resale value is. 
The batteries are actually lasting quite well.
So until the battery technology settles down, I'm going to lease rather than buy.


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## begreen (May 28, 2016)

Probably a good strategy for the short term. We intend to hold onto the Volt for a long time so resale is less an issue. It may be the last new car we've bought.


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## Ashful (May 28, 2016)

Redbarn said:


> We have had a BMW I3 Rex for a year now.
> We do a 500 mile each way journey every month and my wife now uses the I3 for this journey.
> 
> When she started, there were only 2 Level 3 fast chargers on the route.
> ...


Sounds like a crazy hassle.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Redbarn (May 28, 2016)

With a 1st generation EV, it is a bit of a hassle.
But with a 200 mile range and (free) frequent fast chargers, a Tesla Model 3 would change this completely.
Part of the reason why 400,000 people put deposits down....


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## begreen (May 28, 2016)

I prefer the Volt's longer range. 40 (52 on gen 2) mile local electric only and a 9 gal gas tank for the generator range extender. Takes the anxiety and hassle out of long trips. This is especially important for trips that are off the beaten path or to the large areas of the west that will not have fast charger stations any time soon.


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## georgepds (May 28, 2016)

Fwiiw...my gen 2 volt reads 64 miles electric range in warm weather

Non recurring Cost ~22k after all  the rebates and incentives

The electric energy comes from the grid tied solar on the roof

The future is here..it's just unevenly distributed

G


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## Lake Girl (May 29, 2016)

georgepds said:


> The future is here..it's just unevenly distributed


Well said


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## georgepds (May 29, 2016)

Lake Girl said:


> Well said


A William  gibson paraphrase..


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## blades (May 29, 2016)

So many little in the closet  cost details conveniently left out again. Recharge power supply- no matter how you cut it that is still a cost that needs to be added in weather it is your direct cost from your own system( which means breaking  down and portioning all costs from day one) or from the grid- which must include all infastructure as well-  Those batteries are hxxx on the environment to make or dispose of more costs to add.  so your ev is not all the much greener than anything else in powered transportation.  Just a extra grumpy old guy that woke up with a terrific migraine this morning.


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## Seasoned Oak (May 29, 2016)

The best thing about EVs is they provided competition in a transportation market devoid of any real competition. Id like to see more Natural Gas vehicles on the road too. We need choices more than anything. In everything. A market void of competition more of a monopoly than anything else.


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## begreen (May 29, 2016)

A solar system's payback period should be calculated without adding the car charging benefit. For example, our arrays should be net positive in 2018 and 2019. They are also infrastructure that will retain value after they become net positive. The batteries are a problem mostly because of the few facilities for post processing, but fortunately solutions are arising. The most practical present reuse is in home energy storage, especially if one already has an alternate source of power like wind or solar. Still, we need a larger amount of processing facilities than currently exists. A cradle to grave responsibility requirement would help here.


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## Seasoned Oak (May 29, 2016)

I guess a carbon tax is still a dirty word but its probably one of the only solutions  to turning the whole climate thing around.
I always liked the idea of electric onsite generation and EV transportation. I can't drill for oil but i can make power on my own property with my own equipment.


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