# Old Farmer's Almanac 2018 - 19 Winter Forecast



## thewoodlands (Aug 17, 2018)

We'll see if this forecast is close.

https://www.pennlive.com/life/2018/08/winter_2018-19_will_be_warm_an.html


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## fbelec (Aug 22, 2018)

boy this is totally different from the other post on this winter


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## sportbikerider78 (Aug 23, 2018)

I need to change my profession to predicting weather. 

40% of the time, you're right 100% of the time.


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## Knots (Aug 23, 2018)

fbelec said:


> boy this is totally different from the other post on this winter



Shop around!  You're sure to find a forecast you like!


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## thewoodlands (Aug 26, 2018)

The Farmer's Almanac forecast.


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## begreen (Aug 26, 2018)

Official forecaster for The Farmer's Almanac.


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## firefighterjake (Aug 27, 2018)

I can tell you with 100% accuracy what the winter will be like . . . in May 2019.


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## Doug MacIVER (Aug 27, 2018)

firefighterjake said:


> I can tell you with 100% accuracy what the winter will be like . . . in May 2019.


and while Europe roasted?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlpAafQW4AAEBLk?format=jpg&name=small
 while Mass. will be 95*+ we've got?

 tough business?
got to add?


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## Alpine1 (Aug 27, 2018)

I can confirm. Snow on the Alps not far from where I live. But it’s still summer (at least on paper)


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## begreen (Aug 30, 2018)

Local weather is just that. It's when it is put together over time that trends appear. A century ago there used to be a rough balance between record low and high anomalies. That has changed. There are many more record highs being set now than lows. For folks that don't like looking at numbers this animation shows the effect around the world.


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## begreen (Aug 30, 2018)

Here is a local phenomena. This tree is getting ready to drop its leaves in August. Last year this happened around mid October. 

Aug 29, 2018 ------------- Oct 17, 2017


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## thewoodlands (Aug 30, 2018)

begreen said:


> Official forecaster for The Farmer's Almanac.
> View attachment 229085


It was 59 this morning with a high of 62 today, those temps felt great.


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## begreen (Aug 30, 2018)

Yes, it's cooling down here too. No rain though. Still less than an inch since mid-April and none forecasted.


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## firefighterjake (Aug 31, 2018)

begreen said:


> Here is a local phenomena. This tree is getting ready to drop its leaves in August. Last year this happened around mid October.
> 
> Aug 29, 2018 ------------- Oct 17, 2017
> View attachment 229180
> View attachment 229179



Is it by any chance dryer than normal? It seems that trees change and drop their leaves sooner when it's dryer.


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## begreen (Aug 31, 2018)

firefighterjake said:


> Is it by any chance dryer than normal? It seems that trees change and drop their leaves sooner when it's dryer.


You might say that. We've had less than an inch of rain since mid-April. Many trees are giving up, including several evergreens.


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## Doug MacIVER (Aug 31, 2018)

begreen said:


> Yes, it's cooling down here too. No rain though. Still less than an inch since mid-April and none forecasted.


from you wa state climatologist. http://www.climate.washington.edu/outlook.html


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## begreen (Aug 31, 2018)

Yeah, the Sept. outlook for rain here is not good. Apple trees are starting to drop apples 2-3 weeks early.


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## Doug MacIVER (Aug 31, 2018)

begreen said:


> Local weather is just that. It's when it is put together over time that trends appear. A century ago there used to be a rough balance between record low and high anomalies. That has changed. There are many more record highs being set now than lows. For folks that don't like looking at numbers this animation shows the effect around the world.


https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/united-states-el-niño-impacts-0
let's stay with the us and the alman. forecast? here is us.gov , with el nino on the way?


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## begreen (Aug 31, 2018)

Doug MacIVER said:


> https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/united-states-el-niño-impacts-0
> let's stay with the us and the alman. forecast? here is us.gov , with el nino on the way?


Someone brought this up, but agreed it was an irrelevant tangent.
https://www.hearth.com/talk/threads/old-farmers-almanac-2018-19-winter-forecast.169427/#post-2275839


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## Doug MacIVER (Sep 4, 2018)

while there is a lot about current hurricanes, Bastardi gives explanation of his thought about this coming winter. it's connection to our current weather. . that comes up around the 6:30 mark. Interesting with the trop season but also stays with what he thinks about the coming winter, scroll down to bottom rt. to get free sat. summary https://www.weatherbell.com/


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## begreen (Sep 4, 2018)

So far the predictions for WA are for a mild el Nino with lower than average precip and warmer than average temps. This is after Seattle  blasted through the old driest May through August on record of 2003. This year had less than half that amount coming in at an inch of total measured rain during this period.


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## venator260 (Sep 17, 2018)

begreen said:


> Here is a local phenomena. This tree is getting ready to drop its leaves in August. Last year this happened around mid October.
> 
> Aug 29, 2018 ------------- Oct 17, 2017
> View attachment 229180
> View attachment 229179




That's happening in my area for a completely different reason. Fungus due to abnormally wet weather. 

https://triblive.com/local/regional...nsylvania-because-of-fungus-not-an-early-fall


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## begreen (Sep 17, 2018)

begreen said:


> Here is a local phenomena. This tree is getting ready to drop its leaves in August. Last year this happened around mid October.
> 
> Aug 29, 2018 ------------- Oct 17, 2017
> View attachment 229180
> View attachment 229179


Tree is already bare.


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## begreen (Sep 17, 2018)

venator260 said:


> That's happening in my area for a completely different reason. Fungus due to abnormally wet weather.
> 
> https://triblive.com/local/regional...nsylvania-because-of-fungus-not-an-early-fall


That's interesting. We normally have damp springs and anthracnose is a problem with fruit trees here.


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## venator260 (Sep 17, 2018)

begreen said:


> That's interesting. We normally have damp springs and anthracnose is a problem with fruit trees here.




Some sort of fungus (we're thinking anthracnose) has hit my wife and I's small apple trees in our front yard for the last two years, starting in the spring. This year it spread to the older fruit trees in the spring, and this fall has popped up on the lilacs. We took a walk yesterday afternoon and noticed all of the maples on our property dropping their leaves. There's a large hollow full of maples, and it looks more like the end of October than the middle of September. They've lost about 50% of their leaves, and the other half are yellow and brown.


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## begreen (Sep 17, 2018)

If you spot anthracnose developing on the apple trees it's best to stop it early. For early and smaller cases a lighter or gentle application of low flame from a propane torch will burn it out.


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## venator260 (Sep 17, 2018)

begreen said:


> If you spot anthracnose developing on the apple trees it's best to stop it early. For early and smaller cases a lighter or gentle application of low flame from a propane torch will burn it out.



We'll try again next year. We tried some sort of fungicide this spring on the small ones that were infected last year. That did nothing. 

To clarify, you're saying just torch the leaves off the tree? Or pluck them and burn them.


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## begreen (Sep 17, 2018)

The torch is for anthracnose canker areas on stems and branches, if treated early. It's not for the leaves.
http://treefruit.wsu.edu/crop-protection/disease-management/apple-anthracnose/


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## venator260 (Sep 17, 2018)

begreen said:


> The torch is for anthracnose canker areas on stems and branches, if treated early. It's not for the leaves.
> http://treefruit.wsu.edu/crop-protection/disease-management/apple-anthracnose/




That makes more sense. I'll have to look at my trees and see what I can find.


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## begreen (Sep 17, 2018)

venator260 said:


> That makes more sense. I'll have to look at my trees and see what I can find.


Just don't set the tree on fire!


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## venator260 (Sep 18, 2018)

begreen said:


> Just don't set the tree on fire!



I'll try not to. 

I found a couple of cankers on the tree that I looked at this morning. I'll have to try the torch trick and see what happens next spring. So far it's just on the lower branches of my two bigger trees. There are two smaller ones that may not make it, they haven't done well since planting. Same with a cherry tree I have. 

I'm disappointed in the cherry tree, I paid for that one. All of my younger apple trees are volunteers that grew out of a pile of rotten apples my FIL's neighbor dumped in the woods. 2 of them are about 7-8 feet tall now after only about 3 years.


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## begreen (Sep 18, 2018)

Are you getting apples yet from these trees? Often apples are hybrids so the fruit from the seed tree is different than the parent. I had this happen with a tree I am pulling out now.


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## fbelec (Sep 19, 2018)

why are you pulling it out? what kind of apple were they before and now?


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## begreen (Sep 19, 2018)

fbelec said:


> why are you pulling it out? what kind of apple were they before and now?


I think it was a pink lady, but not sure. A friend gave me it as a seedling. The tree grew quickly but attracts every disease known and has never set a bud, nevermind any fruit.


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## fbelec (Sep 19, 2018)

so now it's meat smoking wood


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## venator260 (Sep 23, 2018)

begreen said:


> Are you getting apples yet from these trees? Often apples are hybrids so the fruit from the seed tree is different than the parent. I had this happen with a tree I am pulling out now.



Not yet anyway. They're only abut 3 years old. I believe that the source of the seeds were winesap apples. I honestly didn't expect any of them to even live; at this point I'm just curious to see what they do as they grow.


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## Doug MacIVER (Apr 26, 2019)

Any body see this coming, Damn near May1st?  Interest tweet from my go to guy.
"
 *Ryan Maue*‏Verified account @*RyanMaue* 14m14 minutes ago
Does climate change mean more snowfall into the month of May?  I'm sure if you asked climate scientists beforehand, then they'd say "no way".  But, it's happening so it's obviously symptomatic.  Need to understand why ... agriculture interests want an answer."

as to original post, The Almanac was a bad one this year

Might add this as well


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## blades (Apr 26, 2019)

late snowstorm in April not unusual in WI, remember many,, but Only remember one in May , 10th  1990. it was on the day that my middle son was born.. In 2013 Northern counties got hit with one on  May 2 2013 - I do not remember if we got snow in the southern half of the state that time though.

I am not particularly fond of mother natures birthday gifts to me as this not the first time this has occurred .


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## Doug MacIVER (Apr 26, 2019)

blades said:


> late snowstorm in April not unusual in WI, remember many,, but Only remember one in May , 10th  1990. it was on the day that my middle son was born.. In 2013 Northern counties got hit with one on  May 2 2013 - I do not remember if we got snow in the southern half of the state that time though.
> 
> I am not particularly fond of mother natures birthday gifts to me as this not the first time this has occurred .



Same here in New Eng.  The 1977 storm was a mess with trees fully leafed. The talk back then was opposite of today an ice age was coming. https://www.boston.com/weather/weat...-bad-as-in-13-inches-of-snow-in-worcester-bad


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## blades (Apr 26, 2019)

yep 50-70 we were going to freeze to death or face a nuclear winter with same ending- now of course we are going to expired do to climate change and hole in atmosphere allowing us to be crispy crittered by the Old Sol.  Frankly I am more worried about the exponential increases in taxes- those will do me in long before Mother Nature.


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## begreen (Apr 27, 2019)

Kind of silly for a weatherman to connect a regional weather anomaly to climate change.  
More likely cause is this:
https://www.climate.gov/news-featur...h-american-pattern-stomach-sleeper-atmosphere


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