# Looks like CA drew the line on ICE engines 2035



## peakbagger (Aug 25, 2022)

California is ready to drag the rest of the US into the EV age
					

Other states are likely to follow.




					www.theverge.com
				



Hydrogen is still in the running so it will be interesting what the fleet mix will be. Several other states (many in New England) have adopted CA standards in the past. Not so sure on this one unless someone solves the poor cold weather range of current batteries.


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## EbS-P (Aug 26, 2022)

peakbagger said:


> California is ready to drag the rest of the US into the EV age
> 
> 
> Other states are likely to follow.
> ...


It’s a ramped target too.   It will be interesting to see how the manufacturers respond and how other states handle the manufacturers response.

 Cold weather range reductions are real but don’t affect a really large portion of the population.   I see it having more impacts on longer winter trips than daily commuting.  I will keep an ICE on the road as long as I need to cover my long distance and cold weather needs.     You may only get 1/3 miles out of a full charge but even 80-100 miles should cover a majority of the daily needs.


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## woodgeek (Aug 26, 2022)

1/3rd?  67% reduction?  I haven't seen that.  I see more like 30-40% reduction in very cold weather.

A lot fo that can be fixed with Heat Pumps.  But while most EVs are going to CA, not a lot of incentive to do that.


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## woodgeek (Aug 26, 2022)

If hydrogen is in the running, I would suggest NH3 + ICE is still in the running too.  Easier handling and storage and energy density, at the cost of NOx cleanup.  Could be an easier retrofit for heavier vehicles.

If the NH3 economy gets picked up for shipping fuels... it could then spill into the onshore market.


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## EbS-P (Aug 26, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> If hydrogen is in the running, I would suggest NH3 + ICE is still in the running too.  Easier handling and storage and energy density, at the cost of NOx cleanup.  Could be an easier retrofit for heavier vehicles.
> 
> If the NH3 economy gets picked up for shipping fuels... it could then spill into the onshore market.


Maybe for a fleets but ammonia is nasty.  There were only  a couple jobs on the farm I wasn’t allowed to do alone as a teenager and hooking and unhooking ammonia  tanks was one of them ( the other was entering a not empty grain bin).   Was the only task where I remember being drilled about my PPE.  Probably wasn’t up to OSHA specs but for  men whe would just jump into a cow pen and think nothing if it to make sure I had and always used gloves goggles and face shield and always worked on/from the windward side I’m not sure I would want to mess with with it as a fuel.


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## stoveliker (Aug 26, 2022)

But that is not different from gasoline...?


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## EbS-P (Aug 26, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> But that is not different from gasoline...?


It’s different.  Exposure has much more sever effects and it’s stored under pressure.   

One source I just looked up said it’s dealt at 300 ppm.  You be exposed to 200 ppm of gas while fueling your car.   If anyone has reliable links please share I’m not confident mine are.

Edit… I could fill the mower with gas from the pumps  by my self at age 8 or 9.


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## stoveliker (Aug 26, 2022)

Ok. But that's not an order of magnitude more. It's more, it's bad but not in "another class".


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## stoveliker (Aug 26, 2022)

Regarding the pressure; my dad (as many in that country) drives on lpg. Liquefied petroleum gas.. it's under pressure too. Not a big deal. (And cleaner than gasoline.)

I agree the consequences of inhaling ammonia may be harsher.


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## EbS-P (Aug 26, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> Ok. But that's not an order of magnitude more. It's more, it's bad but not in "another class".


I think it’s a different class.  No one puts on PPE to pump gas.  

The fire department doesn’t generally put on  air tanks to clean up a gasoline spill.  They will go full haz may suit for an ammonia spill.


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## stoveliker (Aug 26, 2022)

True


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## stoveliker (Aug 26, 2022)

Riso: Safety assessment of ammonia as a transport fuel - NH3 Fuel Association
					

Risø National Laboratory, Roskilde, Denmark, February 2005 Authors: Nijs Jan Duijm, Frank Markert, Jette Lundtang Paulsen Download Riso: Safety assessment of ammonia as a transport fuel [PDF, 3.6 MB] Abstract This report describes the safety study performed as part of … Continue reading →



					nh3fuelassociation.org
				




One can possibly find as many studies with opposing conclusions, but ..

(The page only has the abstract, the pdf can be downloaded.)

280-400 ppm tolerable for 0.5-1 hr )pg 63).

Anyway it's nastier than I thought.


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## woodgeek (Aug 27, 2022)

Oh, so now you want your combustion fuels to not make you cry?

Joking aside, liquid ammonia IS toxic and nasty.  But a liquid under pressure at room temps, not unlike propane (both are around 120 psi at RT).  Similar inspection regimes would be required for tanks, and connecting/filling would need a special connector, like a propane filling station but with a purge.  Not like filling a gasoline or diesel tank at all.

Bulk storage tanks would look like bulk propane storage, very different from H2.

Worried about crashes/leaks/etc?  Bigger issues for hydrogen.  Hydrogen has a high flammability and explosion potential that ammonia doesn't have.   And stored at higher pressure that make it a bomb.  A sudden leak in a small ammonia tank would be less energetic, and unlikely to explode.  As suffocation/poisoning hazard yes.  But as a gas it would quickly disperse and be diluted over a large area.  And rain would wash it out of the atmosphere very quickly.


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## EbS-P (Aug 27, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> Regarding the pressure; my dad (as many in that country) drives on lpg. Liquefied petroleum gas.. it's under pressure too. Not a big deal. (And cleaner than gasoline.)
> 
> I agree the consequences of inhaling ammonia may be harsher.


It’s use as a refrigerant in confined spaces means it kills people with regular frequency.  Leaded gas just made us dumber

not to say people don’t ever do dumb things with gas I’m sure it kills lots but we are or at least should be educated as to it’s inherent dangers. 

Ammonia just isn’t a commonly handled product in the average persons life.   One breath and it can just make you cough and feel like you can’t breathe.  Get any on you and it just burns.  

Generally we were working alone and could be 30 minutes away from help if we ever had an issue.  Hoses didn’t have any  safety features built in.  Sure with the commercially  available couplers with some safety considerations it could be a good fuel but

My parents could not recall any deaths in the county related to ammonia.  Plenty were burned in gasoline related fires.


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## woodgeek (Aug 27, 2022)

NH3 is technically more caustic than toxic.  It is very soluble in water, where it rapidly ionizes to form a base, with a pH a couple points lower than lye.

IOW, a gas that forms a caustic base when it contacts mucus membranes, standing water, or skin.

From this source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK546677/

"Ammonia is among the most widely produced chemicals in the United States, a majority of which ends up as chemical fertilizers or as animal feeds. "  and  "The 2017 annual report of the American Association of Poison Control Center’s National Poison Data System reported 1846 single exposures to ammonia with 15 major adverse events and no deaths."


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## stoveliker (Aug 27, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> But a liquid under pressure at room temps, not unlike propane (both are around 120 psi at RT).  Similar inspection regimes would be required for tanks, and connecting/filling would need a special connector, like a propane filling station but with a purge.  Not like filling a gasoline or diesel tank at all.


Yes, the gas stations there have special filling connectors, the lpg tank too. Technically it's a solved problem.

The question is what risk we are willing to take (as with any safety measure; there is a cut off for adding cost when one talks about one in a xxx year probability event). That Danish report I linked to above does go into these things too.


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## stoveliker (Aug 27, 2022)

Get your kids to study electrical engineering....


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## begreen (Aug 28, 2022)

WA State just said they will join California's mandate for 2035.


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## begreen (Aug 28, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> Ammonia just isn’t a commonly handled product in the average persons life. One breath and it can just make you cough and feel like you can’t breathe. Get any on you and it just burns.


Maybe more common than thought. The ammonia fumes were so strong in the pit toilet at a popular state park I was at a couple of days ago, that it made my eyes tear up. There was no ventilation in there and on an 90º day it was cooking.

A lot of RVs have ammonia absorption refrigs FWIW.


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## peakbagger (Aug 28, 2022)

Hydrogen is also nasty stuff to handle. It is a real small molecule and loves to leak. Ammonia also leaks but its easy to detect. Hydrogen does not smell and generally when it does leak the first indication is fire. Hydrogen flames burn with almost no color until it start to burn other materials.

Ammonia is used in Tier 4 stationary diesels for NOx control. Its heck of lot cheaper than using DEF. DEF is converted to ammonia upstream of the catalyst but it eats up power as it needs to evaporate and convert into ammonia before it can clean up the NOx. On stationary engines and turbines they use either aqueous ammonia or on large applications anhydrous ammonia. Anhydrous is super nasty stuff.


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## EbS-P (Aug 28, 2022)

This whole plan hinges on affordable BEVs across all sectors. The complete phase out will have a lot of loop holes.  Like the whole car subscription thing wil they ban the registration of ICE cars??  

There will be plenty of companies that spring up to get around this in states that ban sales of ICE cars.  How about used will they stop used cars from being sold?   A dealer titles it drives it around the block or uses it as a liner car now it’s used and never been sold as a new car.   

Look I’m all for it but we need to have afford options and enough infrastructure to make the decision easy.


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## peakbagger (Aug 28, 2022)

13 years is a long time for the prices and tech to change. Just look at the market in 2022 versus 3 or 4 years ago, Range is going up, far more companies have gotten into it and as production goes up costs go down. 

Of course, everything could change if the US swings right this midterms and goes ultra right during the next presidential cycle.


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## SpaceBus (Aug 29, 2022)

Regulations bring innovations. The US introduced smog standards, the domestic MFGs sat on their hands and said it couldn't be done, in comes Honda, Datsun, etc. to steal their lunch. At least this time around the domestics are willing to play ball instead of balk and pay for it.


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## EbS-P (Aug 29, 2022)

The plug in hybrid will allow this to happen.


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## peakbagger (Aug 29, 2022)

Plug in hybrids are great during the transition as the manufacturers can use existing platforms, but the way for the price to come down is new EV only platforms like GMs Ultium. The Bolt is scheduled to die quickly as its not an Ultium platform ( I think it uses the old Spark platform). Ford admits they could build a far better light EV truck on a dedicated platform but they used the F150 as they had it. Plug in hybrids  are going always be expensive as they have lots of parts.

Look at the Tesla truck, it was announced before the Lightning.   The Tesla is designed on a new platform and its likely GM will have the Hummer and electric GMC out before the Cyber truck hits the showrooms. I personally look forward to see what a designed from scratch EV platform will look like and sell for when GM and Ford gets in the game.

Had to do a general edit is as I had a brain fart and called a plug in hybrid a plug in EV


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## Ashful (Aug 29, 2022)

Geez.... and I used to trick my buddies into sniffing from the gallon jugs of ammonia dad kept next to the blueprint machine, as a teenager.   Maybe I need to track them down, and apologize.   



stoveliker said:


> Get your kids to study electrical engineering....


I get invitations to apply to various engineering manager roles thru LinkedIn, and even though my specialty is not even remotely related to BEV's, a large fraction of the notifications I receive are for positions at companies related to BEV development.  It's an indicator, with my experience so clearly NOT in this market and still clearly receiving so many solicitations, that there must be explosive growth happening in this sector.


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## EatenByLimestone (Aug 31, 2022)

Last week CA wanted to stop selling gas powered vehicles.   This week they asked folks not to charge their EVs.









						Californians told not to charge EVs as grid struggles in heat wave
					

Californians were told Wednesday not to charge their electric vehicles during peak hours, just days after the state said it would stop selling gas-powered cars, as the aging electricity grid struggles with a fearsome heatwave.




					techxplore.com


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## stoveliker (Aug 31, 2022)

Lol. I do see there, however, that plug in hybrids would not be banned from burning fossil fuels.


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## ABMax24 (Sep 1, 2022)

Canada set a similar target a while back, only ZEV's (zero emission vehicles) to be sold after 2035.

Which when taken at face value, the mandate receives applause from one group, and anger from another.

Now when one looks at the definition of a ZEV in Canada it means "the vehicle has the capability to be zero emission". Which allows a plug-in hybrid to qualify, even if it is never plugged in. Now the anger and applause switch groups.


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## EbS-P (Sep 1, 2022)

EatenByLimestone said:


> Last week CA wanted to stop selling gas powered vehicles.   This week they asked folks not to charge their EVs.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Once there is a bi directional standard they will be asked to plug-in.  On a related note.  All my charging for the past 6 months has taken place between midnight and 6 AM.  Hardly peak usage period even during heat waves.


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## woodgeek (Sep 1, 2022)

EatenByLimestone said:


> Last week CA wanted to stop selling gas powered vehicles.   This week they asked folks not to charge their EVs.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The headline is very misleading, and the story went viral in conservative media, that loves a 'Those Californians be Crazy' story.  I'm sure there will be another story next week like 'Californians forcing kids to eat vegetables!'.

Reading the story, they are asking people to not charge their EVs *between 4 and 9 PM*, during an epic Heat Wave.  About as difficult as telling ICE owners not to go to the gas station on every other Tuesday.

Of course, many of those EV owners are already doing that, bc they are getting a big electricity discount by doing TOU rates, and charging overnight.

I'm not on TOU myself, but I set my EV to only charge during the local low demand period (midnight to 6AM) when I am home.  That helps my utility out (reducing purchases from expensive peaker plants), and means most of my electrons are nuke baseload.


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## woodgeek (Sep 1, 2022)

ABMax24 said:


> Canada set a similar target a while back, only ZEV's (zero emission vehicles) to be sold after 2035.
> 
> Which when taken at face value, the mandate receives applause from one group, and anger from another.
> 
> Now when one looks at the definition of a ZEV in Canada it means "the vehicle has the capability to be zero emission". Which allows a plug-in hybrid to qualify, even if it is never plugged in. Now the anger and applause switch groups.


Apparently, several EU countries governments passed a mandate a few years ago that all state vehicles would have to be PHEV or BEV.  Previously, all state employees (who often got cars as a job perk) got a gas card that they could use at any gas station.  After the plug-in mandate passed, they kept handing out the gas cards, and did not make any provision for reimbursing the employees for home charging kWh.

The result was predictable... a massive increase in the adoption of PHEVs in those countries, with a teeny tiny fraction of electric miles.

Those crazy Europeans!


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## EatenByLimestone (Sep 1, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> The headline is very misleading, and the story went viral in conservative media, that loves a 'Those Californians be Crazy' story.  I'm sure there will be another story next week like 'Californians forcing kids to eat vegetables!'.
> 
> Reading the story, they are asking people to not charge their EVs *between 4 and 9 PM*, during an epic Heat Wave.  About as difficult as telling ICE owners not to go to the gas station on every other Tuesday.
> 
> ...


So you see no cause for concern regarding the timing of these two stories?


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## SpaceBus (Sep 1, 2022)

EatenByLimestone said:


> So you see no cause for concern regarding the timing of these two stories?


Yes, the climate is warming and even without the EV's the grid would be struggling. However, continuing business as usual without transitioning to less carbon intensive technology will be much worse than having to charge your car at night. It is frustrating when every attempt to make things better is answered by some nonsense from the fossil fuel industry.


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## peakbagger (Sep 1, 2022)

I plug in my Prime when I want to as my utility is uninterested in offering incentives to change my behavior. I expect most other people do the same.

Look into Freakonomics, if there are incentives whether hidden or not it will change people's behavior.  An example, I pay my credit card bills on line after I have reviewed them. When I log on there is usually a splash screen trying to get me to go to online billing, its usually set up that unless I opt out I will switch to online billing and they will no longer send me a bill by mail. On rare occasions I may miss the email or not make an electronic payment as I need to look up a dispute so the paperbill is a reminder. Thus I am incentivized to keep getting paper statements as the credit card company charges a very hefty fee if I miss a payment. They do not send electronic reminders. So I am incentivized to keep getting a paper statement. My guess is it costs the credit card company to print, issue, send and then process those statements so why not incentivize me somehow to elect not to receive them?  Same with my utility, give me an incentive to plug in off peak and I may do so. I can get a Toyota ap to do so where I plug in the car and I can schedule when to charge but I have to pay a monthly fee to have the Toyota ap. 

The problem is the utilities tend to be uninterested at the least or hostile to putting in place systems to reduce power usage as they typically get paid based on the volume of power used by customers.  Its not just the utilities fault, state regulators make changing tariffs very painful so the utilities try not to make changes. 

Since deregulation in most states, the utilities do not generate the power, they only transport it, they do not make money on generation, so they make money on distribution.  I know in my area the local electric co-ops tend to be far more progressive towards energy conservation than the big multi-nationally owned electric companies.


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## stoveliker (Sep 1, 2022)

The point was that the headline is deceiving, because they did not ask EV owners to stop charging. They asked them to charge at certain times of the day (or, more accurately, not at certain times of the day).

The headline suggests a blanket "don't do it", and the real question was "don't do it between the hrs of x-y".

It's like passing a noise ordinance and the headline says "XY told home owners not to make noise!" when the ordinance only says "... between 10 pm and 6 am."

This is how media creates an image, a bias, and is not (the truth), the WHOLE truth, (and nothing but the truth).


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## Ashful (Sep 1, 2022)

EatenByLimestone said:


> So you see no cause for concern regarding the timing of these two stories?


No.  Even this evil middle-aged male Republican capitalist can see the headline on that story is an obvious attempt to mislead.

More grid-tied battery is exactly where we need to be going, with better management of charging profiles, and a sensible bi-directional standard (as @EbS-P already noted).  Even without bi-directionality, just managing charging times would be an enormous benefit, with regard to reducing peak/average ratio.  Anything we can do to level out demand over a 24 hour cycle (or preferably 72 hour cycle) will allow those nukes to throttle up to a new base load, in addition to other options with long time constants or poor on-demand control.


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## EatenByLimestone (Sep 1, 2022)

How else can you guys modify your behavior in order to make somebody’s bad decisions less disruptive?

Maybe figuring out that battery thing before cutting out the ICE might have been a good idea?   

As somebody who manages a small fleet I’m real interested in electric vehicles.    I’d love to cut down on vehicle maintenance.   It’s just not time for it yet.    If your grid can’t take the load, maybe you shouldn’t push more people onto it.


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## Ashful (Sep 1, 2022)

I suspect you've never driven an EV, Limestone?  For me, the cost is still an issue, but in what other way do you see this transition legitimately disrupting your life or business?

I'm so addicted to gasoline and horsepower, that my family suspects my blood runs around 102 octane, but even I can see how much better EV's will be for all but those of us addicted to the sweet roar of Flowmaster.

Someday, you're going to feel real sheepish, trying to explain to your grandkids, that you thought it was easier to drive across town and stand next to a gas pump for 10 minutes in the cold and rain, than to just plug your car into the wall when you get home at night.


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## stoveliker (Sep 1, 2022)

I think this (pushing EVs at this time) is needed because (of many things, including that) this country is not known for its foresight in getting the right infrastructure in place BEFORE there is a current need. No one wants to pay for these things, many will say "but there are no EVs, and I don't think they'll become that big anyway".

Making the need current is the only way to get it done imo.

Getting the right infrastructure in place before there is a current need: case in point, bridges, drinking water, sewer. None of that is adequately maintained ("right infrastructure -kept- in place") until the excrement hits the airmovement device and the need is current.


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## EbS-P (Sep 1, 2022)

UMaine asked us to work from home one day and ran  the big backup generators for a few hours. It wasn’t a a big deal.  Just like not running your dryer during peak usage or Turning up the thermostat a couple degrees for a few hours.   It’s not the cars.  It’s the AC.   But the cars can load shift.  AC not so much.


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## EbS-P (Sep 1, 2022)

EatenByLimestone said:


> How else can you guys modify your behavior in order to make somebody’s bad decisions less disruptive?
> 
> Maybe figuring out that battery thing before cutting out the ICE might have been a good idea?
> 
> As somebody who manages a small fleet I’m real interested in electric vehicles.    I’d love to cut down on vehicle maintenance.   It’s just not time for it yet.    If your grid can’t take the load, maybe you shouldn’t push more people onto it.


Grid has not been designed to take record loads.  Hence all the rolling blackouts before EVs were even a thing.  Now we can utilize them to keep the grid up.


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## begreen (Sep 1, 2022)

The grid has been designed for central distribution. It needs to be updated to accommodate a distributed approach. For now, they need to keep the nukes for baseload power until a better alternative is developed.


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## EatenByLimestone (Sep 1, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> Grid has not been designed to take record loads.  Hence all the rolling blackouts before EVs were even a thing.  Now we can utilize them to keep the grid up.




Are you suggesting we use car batteries to support the grid by letting them draw from your battery, or are you suggesting the power company could charge your car for free and you can help them by allowing them to run a higher baseload?  Both scenarios pose their own issues..  Batteries have a finite number of charges and discharges that they can absorb.  I wouldn't want an uncaring entity discharging, or charging my vehicle.


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## stoveliker (Sep 1, 2022)

This is one of the concerns that have always been in the back of my mind: my battery does not have eternal life. Having the grid charge and discharge it at their preference is something I'd be hesitant about. 

I understand this may help stabilize things, but when my equipment ages sooner because of that, I would think that better (larger scale) batteries are a better solution.

I'm fine postponing charging (etc, as in CA now).


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## begreen (Sep 1, 2022)

In the early 1900s there were tales and cartoons of the farmer rescuing an early gas-powered car with his horse. Gas infrastructure was spotty back then, and so were paved roads. This is where we are now with EVs except we have ubiquitous power. In CA if you have a good-sized solar array I wouldn't feel guilty about charging during the daytime. 

Battery technology is dramatically improving and will continue to do so. Faster charging and improved life-cycle will happen. And eventually, it may make more sense to lease the battery than own it.
On the battery development front, I thought this was interesting.








						A Researcher Accidentally Developed A Battery That Could Last A Lifetime
					

A Researcher Accidentally Developed A Battery That Could Last A Lifetime




					www.iflscience.com
				




The article is short on details on what kind of output this tech is capable of and its costs. It may be too early. The question with any new battery tech is "will it scale?"


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## stoveliker (Sep 1, 2022)

leasing is nice, indeed. Though it depends on how they set the lease price.
Per kWh charged? not good for grid storage cycles.
Per mile driven or per year? Better.

On the other hand, as long as EVs are used *to not drive ICE* vehicles, then shortening the lifetime by more cycling of the battery offsets some of that CO2 reduction (because the CO2 cost of production is spread out over less miles). Admittedly, some CO2 reduction from powering the grid would be present to offset that offset. Though given scale, I think that's not going to be enough.


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## stoveliker (Sep 1, 2022)

Those batteries are MnO2 based. Not really what's needed for cars, as far as I understand. 
Also the structure factor here adds a ton of volume (so the energy density per volume is low). Thin MnO2 films on gold nanowires.  Not sure what the cost of the Au nanowires would do.

It'd be good if this concept could be reworked to other chemistries.


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## EbS-P (Sep 1, 2022)

We have load interruption devices on our AC compressors.  Duke get to say when they cut the power to them, but there are rules on how often and how long.  In return we get a 25$ credit every year.  Seems like something similar would work for cars.  And then on could make this a two way system.  It doesn’t happen often.  I can’t remember the last time they needed to use them.   It’s been several years.  

As for drawing from my battery sure for I would let them draw 20 kWh a day but they would have to pay me a premium.  Spot power prices or 25$ a year which ever is higher.  

Rough math says 20k$ battery pack that last 20 years. Would cost about 3$ a day a double it say 6$ is what the utility would need to pay me.  Say they take 30 kWh a day. Or 0.50$ a kWh.  10 days a year. Sure I would sign up today IF they subsidized the house side hardware and I could use it when I needed it locally.


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## peakbagger (Sep 1, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> Those batteries are MnO2 based. Not really what's needed for cars, as far as I understand.
> Also the structure factor here adds a ton of volume (so the energy density per volume is low). Thin MnO2 films on gold nanowires.  Not sure what the cost of the Au nanowires would do.
> 
> It'd be good if this concept could be reworked to other chemistries.


New battery technology concepts are a dime a dozen and fortunes can be made just on a hint of a new one. I suspect that something other than the current LNC batteries are going to appear but I am not betting my retirement funds on any of them.

With respect to large batteries, there are several companies that are leasing them to building owners and that approach is being tried in China with one brand of EV autos that uses a swappable battery pack. The leasing companies are betting that there is residual value at end of the lease.

Battery degradation is pretty complex, its not just the number of cycles its the rate of discharge and depth of discharge. Most of the power demand on the grid is not an overall shortage of generation over a long period, its the less than 5 minute market where there is short term imbalance between supply and demand that needs to be met near instantly. Therefore in many cases the home battery aggregator is going to pull down the batteries for only five minutes. Folks may not realize it, but a typical grid tied solar installation is limited at the main panel for power output to 20% of the panel rating. For a 200 amp panel that is 40 AMPS at 240 volts or 9600 watt hours. A line side tap can put out considerably more, but few homes are currently wired that way (but could be).


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## woodgeek (Sep 1, 2022)

EatenByLimestone said:


> So you see no cause for concern regarding the timing of these two stories?


None.   Maybe you can explain the problem for me.

I charge my EV for roughly 5 hours_ per week_.  If a utility asked me to not do that (using 7 kW) during a power emergency, it would not inconvenience me in any way.  In fact, I set up my car to never charge during that time of day (unless I tell it to by hitting an override button), so I never even need to worry about it anyway.

The govt is not telling me that I can't charge my EV then.  If I had to, I would and no one would care.  If I was road-tripping, and needed to fast charge then, I would.


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## EatenByLimestone (Sep 1, 2022)

Well then, enjoy it.


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## begreen (Sep 1, 2022)

peakbagger said:


> New battery technology concepts are a dime a dozen and fortunes can be made just on a hint of a new one. I suspect that something other than the current LNC batteries are going to appear but I am not betting my retirement funds on any of them.


Yes, that's why I added the caveat. My financial advisor once told me that the surest way to lose money was to invest in new battery technology. He used Bill Gates as an example. Instead, I bought 100 shares of a developing battery recycling company.


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## SpaceBus (Sep 2, 2022)

EatenByLimestone said:


> How else can you guys modify your behavior in order to make somebody’s bad decisions less disruptive?
> 
> Maybe figuring out that battery thing before cutting out the ICE might have been a good idea?
> 
> As somebody who manages a small fleet I’m real interested in electric vehicles.    I’d love to cut down on vehicle maintenance.   It’s just not time for it yet.    If your grid can’t take the load, maybe you shouldn’t push more people onto it.


Nobody is forcing you to buy a new vehicle. CA is only banning the sale of NEW ICE vehicles. Just like you can still get a nasty old stove, if you shop on the used market. The car police aren't coming to arrest you if you don't buy an EV. 



stoveliker said:


> This is one of the concerns that have always been in the back of my mind: my battery does not have eternal life. Having the grid charge and discharge it at their preference is something I'd be hesitant about.
> 
> I understand this may help stabilize things, but when my equipment ages sooner because of that, I would think that better (larger scale) batteries are a better solution.
> 
> I'm fine postponing charging (etc, as in CA now).



If someone else is paying for the wear and tear on the batteries, I don't see the problem. Or if the power company is paying me a higher rate to discharge the battery than I pay to charged it (or nothing if I generate on site power), which would also pay for the wear and tear on the battery. I think this would be a great way to shift to taxpayer owned power generation.


----------



## stoveliker (Sep 2, 2022)

But there is the CO2 budget aspect too (see that video posted not too long ago about the CO2 break even point for EVs. This gets worse if the mileage gotten from an EV battery decreased due to non-driving aging of the battery.


----------



## peakbagger (Sep 2, 2022)

BTW, I read this AM that Ca legislature voted to keep Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant open an additional 5 years.


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## EbS-P (Sep 2, 2022)

SpaceBus said:


> Nobody is forcing you to buy a new vehicle. CA is only banning the sale of NEW ICE vehicles. Just like you can still get a nasty old stove, if you shop on the used market. The car police aren't coming to arrest you if you don't buy an EV.
> 
> 
> 
> If someone else is paying for the wear and tear on the batteries, I don't see the problem. Or if the power company is paying me a higher rate to discharge the battery than I pay to charged it (or nothing if I generate on site power), which would also pay for the wear and tear on the battery. I think this would be a great way to shift to taxpayer owned power generation.


Not a chance of publicly owned generation.  To many CO-OP and municipal/regional power organizations have been hurt financially.  When it comes to fossil fuel and nuclear generation scaling up reduced costs. Now I could see solar, wind and the new modular nuclear reactors as being an option for smaller publicly owned utilities.  I have not looked at prices but I’m guessing larger installations would not have a financial benefit.  And the installs could easily grow given you have the land for solar wind and more reactors.


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## sneefy (Sep 2, 2022)

SpaceBus said:


> CA is only banning the sale of NEW ICE vehicles.



In the coming years I'll be very interested to see what CA does to registration taxes for ICE vehicles.


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## SpaceBus (Sep 2, 2022)

sneefy said:


> In the coming years I'll be very interested to see what CA does to registration taxes for ICE vehicles.


It really doesn't matter, because customers that want to keep using ICE are in the minority. Much like people that prefer antiquated vehicle technology are also in the minority.


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## sneefy (Sep 2, 2022)

SpaceBus said:


> customers that want to keep using ICE are in the minority.



Do you have a stat for this sentiment?


----------



## EbS-P (Sep 2, 2022)

sneefy said:


> In the coming years I'll be very interested to see what CA does to registration taxes for ICE vehicles.


They already banned the registration (or it’s happening very soon) of light duty diesel truck without DPF. So that’s 2006 and before?   Not sure what the rules for heavy duty trucks.


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## sneefy (Sep 2, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> They already banned the registration (or it’s happening very soon) of light duty diesel truck without DPF. So that’s 2006 and before?   Not sure what the rules for heavy duty trucks.



Yeah, that's why I'll be curious to see what happens. 

It's pretty obvious that Nevada will get tons of sales of ICE vehicles when (if) the CA stop-sale mandate goes into effect.  But the state of CA will have to make it punitive somehow to own an ICE vehicle in the state. So the easiest move without an outright ban (which would be wholly unworkable for a long time to come)  would be to make the registration taxes unaffordable.


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## SpaceBus (Sep 2, 2022)

sneefy said:


> Do you have a stat for this sentiment?


Here's one source, but there are many. 









						Study Expects More EVs Than ICE Vehicles Will Be Sold By 2033
					

We know this is going to happen eventually, but isn’t 2033 a bit too optimistic, even considering the prediction only refers to the US, Europe and China?




					insideevs.com
				




For other obsolete tech, just look back at when the EPA enacted the Clean Air Act and everyone abandoned older vehicles without catalysts after a short time. Furthermore the average age for any vehicle on the road is 11.8 years. Which means in another 13 years, when the CA ban is proposed to go into effect, there will be even less. Then you factor in financial incentives to upgrade, just like in the "Oil Crisis" of the 70's, people will be shifting to vehicles that are cheaper to operate. I know everyone gets in a twist about how expensive EVs are now, but is that any different than any other emerging tech? Tractors used to be only affordable for the biggest, most profitable farms, now they are extremely commonplace in rural areas. EVs have been on the road in large numbers for ten years now, that's going to increase exponentially, especially as there will be less ICE options available from MFGs moving forward. If you haven't noticed, the big automakers have been shifting to PHEV and EVs for the last five years. Chevy is unveiling multiple EVs this year and Ford has announced the 7th gen 2023 Mustang will be the final Mustang generation to have ICE options. The signs are everywhere, even if you don't want to listen. 

By and large the public has spoken, and they want less pollution and cleaner transportation.


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## EbS-P (Sep 2, 2022)

sneefy said:


> Yeah, that's why I'll be curious to see what happens.
> 
> It's pretty obvious that Nevada will get tons of sales of ICE vehicles when (if) the CA stop-sale mandate goes into effect.  But the state of CA will have to make it punitive somehow to own an ICE vehicle in the state. So the easiest move without an outright ban (which would be wholly unworkable for a long time to come)  would be to make the registration taxes unaffordable.


You are assuming the current dealership model continues.  I think Tesla killed it.  Online sales of new cars is the future.  And that ICE vehicle options are available and be better option than the plug in hybrid. Yes Nevada and AZ will see increased sales and businesses operating from their but I think you will see more regulations.


----------



## sneefy (Sep 2, 2022)

SpaceBus said:


> The signs are everywhere, even if you don't want to listen.



OK, you're obviously not someone to engage with on this form. Got it.


----------



## sneefy (Sep 2, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> You are assuming the current dealership model continues.  I think Tesla killed it.  Online sales of new cars is the future.



Fair point. Ford is following suit with the Maverick, largely driven by predatory sales practices by dealerships in the current state of low supply and high demand. I'll bet it'll be a slower death than we think, though. Dealerships are surprisingly powerful when it comes to lobbying. But, yeah, it will happen eventually.


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## begreen (Sep 2, 2022)

AAA polls driver sentiment regularly on EVs. The poll on "Will your next car be an EV?" has grown from 15% to around 25% in just 2 yrs. The trend is pretty strong as more options show up. By 2025 every car company will have several EVs to choose from. That will also drive the trend along with better batteries and charging infrastructure. 




__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com


----------



## stoveliker (Sep 2, 2022)

I recently bought a new (to me) car (for my wife).
I looked a lot at Carvana. However, I do want to test drive, I do want to feel the car, see the car.
It did not feel right to test (the model) at a dealer, then  buy elsewhere.
I know Carvana has a return policy (I know there are some news stories about "disasters", but that'll happen with any large quantity, I think overall they are doing fine), but I don't like spending this much money on something I have not seen.

So I bought it at a dealer (because 2.5 years old, 17k miles, warranty etc.)

I think dealers do have a place.
See e.g. also this story.


			https://www.autoevolution.com/news/unhappy-2022-tesla-model-3-owner-gets-major-buyer-s-remorse-sells-it-after-two-months-195087.html
		


A story. This is not to indicate some general truth. (I'm not saying Tesla's are crap.) This story may even not be the whole truth of the case (i.e. misleading from a certain agenda). But the reason (the "feel") of why this person sold the car is why it makes sense to have a place you can put your hands on a product before you buy it.

The legal processes of buying a car thru a dealer may very well change. But I suspect there will be "outlets" (not discounts, but factory owned "stores"), and that is a legally different continuation of the dealer, aka (new) car lot.

My $0.02


----------



## sneefy (Sep 2, 2022)

begreen said:


> AAA polls driver sentiment regularly on EVs. The poll on "Will your next car be an EV?" has grown from 15% to around 25% in just 2 yrs. The trend is pretty strong as more options show up. By 2025 every car company will have several EVs to choose from. That will also drive the trend along with better batteries and charging infrastructure.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yeah, I'm hoping to make the shift to an electric commuter vehicle probably two cars from now. A few years ago I considered a used Nissan Leaf as off-lease units were DIRT cheap. 

I think the growth of that sentiment will slow. Especially as the infrastructure is not there and I don't believe it will be by the desired CA targets,.



stoveliker said:


> I recently bought a new (to me) car (for my wife).
> I looked a lot at Carvana. However, I do want to test drive, I do want to feel the car, see the car.
> It did not feel right to test (the model) at a dealer, then  buy elsewhere.
> I know Carvana has a return policy (I know there are some news stories about "disasters", but that'll happen with any large quantity, I think overall they are doing fine), but I don't like spending this much money on something I have not seen.
> ...


I agree that I need to test drive it first. That is, unless returning it is free and painless like a pair of pants on Amazon. 

I had a Dodge Avenger as a rental once. It was the worst driving car I've ever experienced. Second wort was a Nissan Versa. You can't get that sense on paper. As much as a car is an appliance in some ways, I do care how they drive. 

Objectively, Teslas have awful reliability despite high typical owner satisfaction. So Teslas might be objectively crap, but subjectively awesome.  When I read stories about foam corner trim like what you'd find at Home depot used as a production-line fix for fitment issues, It gives me pause.


----------



## SpaceBus (Sep 2, 2022)

sneefy said:


> OK, you're obviously not someone to engage with on this form. Got it.


I do love some irony. You have participated in a few threads discussing the fact that EVs are taking over with lots of data points. Just like tractors eliminated the use of livestock for labor, so will EVs eliminate the market for ICE vehicles. There are still horse enthusiasts, but only fringe communities such as the Amish rely on them. There will always be ICE enthusiasts out there keeping the flame burning, but they will be a fringe group. EVs started in the fringe, but are rapidly approaching the mainstream.


----------



## Ashful (Sep 2, 2022)

sneefy said:


> Objectively, Teslas have awful reliability despite high typical owner satisfaction. So Teslas might be objectively crap, but subjectively awesome.  When I read stories about foam corner trim like what you'd find at Home depot used as a production-line fix for fitment issues, It gives me pause.


Mixed bag.  Like any startup, esp. based entirely on development of new tech, there have been growing pains.  I do enjoy poking fun at a few friends and family with Tesla's, who started their ownership bragging that they'd never need maintenance, and have subsequently had to visit their dealership twice as frequently as me.  It's not "maintenance", it's recalls, repairs, and updates... but they're driving twice as far to get it, and waiting twice as long in the process.

But I'm really only having fun with them.  Despite these issues, which honestly could have and should have been fully expected with new tech from a new company, it's tough to make any legitimate argument that this isn't ultimately the direction we need to go.  The analogy between tractors and horses 100 years in our past, brought up a few times now in this thread, is a good one.


----------



## woodgeek (Sep 2, 2022)

sneefy said:


> Do you have a stat for this sentiment?



I think it is fair to be skeptical.  I'm not going to google surveys, or cite the exponential increase in market share over the last ten years.  Every exponential slows down at some point!

But the history of tech adoption is pretty information rich.  HD TVs replacing tube TVs.  Color TVs replacing BW ones.  People buying washing machines.  Replacing gas lights with incandescents, or incandescents with CFL/LEDs for that matter.  Flip phones for smart phones.

These follow a classic 'S' shaped curve, with rapidly falling prices and improving tech as sales are booming.  And ultimately plateauing at nearly complete adoption.

There are a few technologies like LaserDisks (from the VCR era) that 'fail' to find universal adoption.  But not many.

The rapidity of the (S shaped) adoption curve varies with the new technology.  Some are slow (landline telephones) and some are fast (smart phones).  And people study the data to try to understand why it is sometimes fast, and sometimes slow.

Example 1: For landlines, it was slow bc of the cost of building out the infrastructure.   And the poor economics of reaching the last customer in a capitalist model.  So govt gave it a shove at the end.  

This sounds like your concern re EV adoption slowing on the way to completion, and that is reasonable.  Govt will probably step in to subsidize putting L2's in apt buildings and public parking lots in cities.  And will probably give EV manufacturers a shove to build (and maintain) DCFCs.  If they don't do these things, adoption will be hindered.

Example 2: Clothes washing machines also took a surprisingly long time to catch on.  It was not a matter of cost or performance, so this was a mystery.  The prior technology was tedious hand washing by human labor, by yourself, your spouse, or your servants.  This was difficult enough that many people didn't wash their clothes as often as we do today.  And 'rich' people could afford servants to keep their clothes perfectly clean and spotless, and used that as a signifier of social class.  Clothes washers were deemed 'inferior' to hand laundry, so wealthy early adopters had little incentive to adopt them.

People do wrap up a lot of their identity/status in their cars, more so than a smart phone.  So people who judge EVs as inferior to ICe cars for some reason will have a stronger than normal incentive to resist the change.  This could also slow adoption for some people.

We shall see!


----------



## sneefy (Sep 2, 2022)

SpaceBus said:


> I do love some irony. You have participated in a few threads discussing the fact that EVs are taking over with lots of data points. Just like tractors eliminated the use of livestock for labor, so will EVs eliminate the market for ICE vehicles. There are still horse enthusiasts, but only fringe communities such as the Amish rely on them. There will always be ICE enthusiasts out there keeping the flame burning, but they will be a fringe group. EVs started in the fringe, but are rapidly approaching the mainstream.


I think you miss my meaning. I have participated and do so willingly, including with those which with I disagree. But I prefer to participate with less toxic individuals. 

If that comment surprises you, read your own post history.


----------



## sneefy (Sep 2, 2022)

Ashful said:


> Mixed bag.  Like any startup, esp. based entirely on development of new tech, there have been growing pains.  I do enjoy poking fun at a few friends and family with Tesla's, who started their ownership bragging that they'd never need maintenance, and have subsequently had to visit their dealership twice as frequently as me.  It's not "maintenance", it's recalls, repairs, and updates... but they're driving twice as far to get it, and waiting twice as long in the process.
> 
> But I'm really only having fun with them.  Despite these issues, which honestly could have and should have been fully expected with new tech from a new company, it's tough to make any legitimate argument that this isn't ultimately the direction we need to go.  The analogy between tractors and horses 100 years in our past, brought up a few times now in this thread, is a good one.


I have no problem with growing pains in tech. My career is tech. But I have little tolerance for such issues with a car. Tesla's flagrant disregard for doing things responsibly is a big turn-off.


----------



## sneefy (Sep 2, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> I think it is fair to be skeptical.
> 
> This sounds like your concern re EV adoption slowing on the way to completion, and that is reasonable.
> 
> We shall see!


Yeah, I'm fully acknowledge naturally a skeptic. Definitely not a techno-optimist. I've read too much science fiction for that, lol. 

I'm also pretty risk averse and conservative (small c) so the current jumping off the cliff towards electrification is problematic. The EV infrastructure shift will be a massive undertaking.  More broadly, until we fully embrace nuclear (or invent an alternative that has low cost AND low raw material requirements (mining) AND is rapidly scalable) mass electrification simply won't happen anywhere near the proposed targets.


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## EbS-P (Sep 2, 2022)

sneefy said:


> I have no problem with growing pains in tech. My career is tech. But I have little tolerance for such issues with a car. Tesla's flagrant disregard for doing things responsibly is a big turn-off.


Tesla’s approach was/is a departure from the norm. It has benefits and drawbacks.  I think the model S was sound.  Probably more small defects due to learning how to manufacture than anything else.  Model 3 was always going to be their high volume model but we stopped liking sedans.  Hence the model Y.    They are at every corner trying to cut costs.  The Model X is an engineering marvel and at t he same time a piece of junk.  My front axels need replaced at 25k miles.  To save money they used fixed camber arms on the rear suspension. For and adjustable height suspension that by default lowers it self at speeds above 45 mph and won’t reset to normal right away.    Look at a video of how to replace the 12 v battery.  They made the falcon doors work but can’t get rid of a 12 v battery.    

I think expectations were way to high.  They priced them selves into the luxury segment but it wasn’t a luxury product.  They are still in a growth at any cost phase.  Growth over quality.  They need to establish the profit per EV unit bar and have done a good job with that.  Next phase will be quality and service I think.  I think it will be interesting so see what the next 5 years brings.  Will the release a major refresh or keep implementing small incremental improvements whenever they are ready.


----------



## sneefy (Sep 2, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> Tesla’s approach was/is a departure from the norm. It has benefits and drawbacks.  I think the model S was sound.  Probably more small defects due to learning how to manufacture than anything else.  Model 3 was always going to be their high volume model but we stopped liking sedans.  Hence the model Y.    They are at every corner trying to cut costs.  The Model X is an engineering marvel and at t he same time a piece of junk.  My front axels need replaced at 25k miles.  To save money they used fixed camber arms on the rear suspension. For and adjustable height suspension that by default lowers it self at speeds above 45 mph and won’t reset to normal right away.    Look at a video of how to replace the 12 v battery.  They made the falcon doors work but can’t get rid of a 12 v battery.
> 
> I think expectations were way to high.  They priced them selves into the luxury segment but it wasn’t a luxury product.  They are still in a growth at any cost phase.  Growth over quality.  They need to establish the profit per EV unit bar and have done a good job with that.  Next phase will be quality and service I think.  I think it will be interesting so see what the next 5 years brings.  Will the release a major refresh or keep implementing small incremental improvements whenever they are ready.



Agreed on all fronts with the possible exception of the profit and subsidy model they have abused and their prospects as a company. I think that Tesla is in a bubble of their own making that is already starting to pop. They all of a sudden have lots of competition in the EV space and with vehicles that are better than Tesla. Once more luxury EVs become available, I think Tesla will really be hurting. 

I would add that their usage of the term 'autopilot' is irresponsible as it it anything but. Growth over quality is a major problem in a 4500lb chunk of metal with passengers flying down the road. The 'move fast and break things' model is grossly irresponsible in the context of passenger vehicles.


----------



## woodgeek (Sep 2, 2022)

sneefy said:


> The EV infrastructure shift will be a massive undertaking. More broadly, until we fully embrace nuclear (or invent an alternative that has low cost AND low raw material requirements (mining) AND is rapidly scalable) mass electrification simply won't happen anywhere near the proposed targets.



Yeah, I guess I don't see why. 

For the EVs, the money builds a factory, and leads to opening a mine (or reopening or expanding an existing mine), then the product brings in more money.  If the market is there (and it seems to be) then the whole enterprise scales as it has for earlier technology changes.  All of the necessary elements are available in geologic deposits in the required amounts.

For powering the thing, not clear why you think we need nukes to run EVs.  EVs and renewables 'play well' together, bc EVs can be dispatched to charge when renewables are present, and most can be charged every few days... so a cloudy day or two (let alone nightfall) doesn't matter.  PV is made out of earth abundant elements (silicon, aluminum, oxygen being the major components of the earths crust), and pays back the energy to make it in <2 years.  This means that PV can 'self-power' its own manufacturing and deployment if it has exponential growth slower than doubling every 3-4 years (about 25% CAGR).

And a full EV fleet doesn't even require much new grid capacity, because, as noted by California, it can charge during low demand periods.

All of the above has been worked out by professionals and engineers, contrary to a lot of click-bait youtubers on the other side.


----------



## EbS-P (Sep 2, 2022)

sneefy said:


> Agreed on all fronts with the possible exception of the profit and subsidy model they have abused and their prospects as a company. I think that Tesla is in a bubble of their own making that is already starting to pop. They all of a sudden have lots of competition in the EV space and with vehicles that are better than Tesla. Once more luxury EVs become available, I think Tesla will really be hurting.
> 
> I would add that their usage of the term 'autopilot' is irresponsible as it it anything but. Growth over quality is a major problem in a 4500lb chunk of metal with passengers flying down the road. The 'move fast and break things' model is grossly irresponsible in the context of passenger vehicles.


As a company the intellectual property they have is years ahead of any competition.  The mega castings are a revolutionary manufacturing step.  Yeah I think they have over played their hand and as an owner of a nearly 6 year old car with full self driving I’m irked.  But when I acquired it I was not expecting to have access to FSD beta.  And I’m not sure I ever will as it will mean Tesla will have to upgrade on their dime many hardware components.  And with those in short supply I don’t see that happening for at least 12 months.  I still think once you figure in the charging network they are still the best EV manufacturer.  Just look at their efficiency numbers.  Others aren’t close. Battery tech they are ahead.  Motor tech winning there.  Structural batteries that are installed with the seats already attached.  Yep that’s saving them money.  They are more profitable per unit than Any other manufacturer EV or ICE.


----------



## SpaceBus (Sep 2, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> Yeah, I guess I don't see why.
> 
> For the EVs, the money builds a factory, and leads to opening a mine (or reopening or expanding an existing mine), then the product brings in more money.  If the market is there (and it seems to be) then the whole enterprise scales as it has for earlier technology changes.  All of the necessary elements are available in geologic deposits in the required amounts.
> 
> ...


I'm pretty certain all the hand wringing over EV range and "the grid" are just propaganda from those who profit by keeping fossil fueled vehicles on the road. I get that Americans want to have the ability to go on a long road trip at the drop of a hat, but even in a rural area most could live with 150-300 miles of actual range on the vehicle. You could easily put 70+ miles a day on a car here driving to work, but that's right in line with charging every other day and a 150+ mile range. People may even end up driving an EV more than they would normally drive an ICE due to the significantly lower cost per mile driven. Even my wife's 500 Abarth averaging 38-40 MPG cost $0.14/mile, an EV would crush that. An EV charged with private solar would be almost free to drive.


----------



## EbS-P (Sep 2, 2022)

sneefy said:


> Yeah, I'm fully acknowledge naturally a skeptic. Definitely not a techno-optimist. I've read too much science fiction for that, lol.
> 
> I'm also pretty risk averse and conservative (small c) so the current jumping off the cliff towards electrification is problematic. The EV infrastructure shift will be a massive undertaking.  More broadly, until we fully embrace nuclear (or invent an alternative that has low cost AND low raw material requirements (mining) AND is rapidly scalable) mass electrification simply won't happen anywhere near the proposed targets.


I trust Jason’s numbers.   Yes we need to expand but that was needed even without electric cars.


----------



## peakbagger (Sep 3, 2022)

Hondas spending 310 million to scale up solid state batteries https://www.thedrive.com/news/honda-exec-says-lithium-ion-evs-wont-ever-be-as-cheap-as-gas-cars
That is their bet for low cost EVs. Toyota is also betting on them.


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## SpaceBus (Sep 3, 2022)

peakbagger said:


> Hondas spending 310 million to scale up solid state batteries https://www.thedrive.com/news/honda-exec-says-lithium-ion-evs-wont-ever-be-as-cheap-as-gas-cars
> That is their bet for low cost EVs. Toyota is also betting on them.


Does it even matter when the TCO is significantly lower for EV vs ICE, and going down every year (or rather ICE is going up)? Any study I find that says otherwise was crafted to make the ICE less expensive to drive by assuming high percentage of commercial charging, charging away from home, assuming the owner makes well above the average (much less median) income, among many other things.


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## SpaceBus (Sep 3, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> I trust Jason’s numbers.   Yes we need to expand but that was needed even without electric cars.



If anything EVs give a substantial impetus to upgrade the grid. Maybe big auto MFG's would be incentivized to invest into the grid as well.


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## EbS-P (Sep 3, 2022)

SpaceBus said:


> If anything EVs give a substantial impetus to upgrade the grid. Maybe big auto MFG's would be incentivized to invest into the grid as well.


They should focus on reliable charging infrastructure.  But Tesla is really uniquely positioned with their power products. Mega Batteries, residential batteries, solar, and cars to enter the utility space.


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## stoveliker (Sep 3, 2022)

I'm not sure. Utility space is an environment that would compete on price. Tesla does not do that.


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## EbS-P (Sep 3, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> I'm not sure. Utility space is an environment that would compete on price. Tesla does not do that.


But if you are a power supplier on the spot market that’s where the premium prices are paid and if you have idle grid connected capacity that you manage through your network it’s possible.  You are correct they really just want to sell and be be done but at some point they will have considerable grid connected capacity that is already on their network.


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## begreen (Sep 3, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> But if you are a power supplier on the spot market that’s where the premium prices are paid and if you have idle grid connected capacity that you manage through your network it’s possible.  You are correct they really just want to sell and be be done but at some point they will have considerable grid connected capacity that is already on their network.


In Australia, Tesla set up the grid power supplement for one state. 








						Introducing Megapack: Utility-Scale Energy Storage
					

Less than two years ago, Tesla built and installed the world’s largest lithium-ion battery in Hornsdale, South Australia, using Tesla Powerpack batteries. Since then, the facility saved nearly $40 million in its first year alone and helped to stabilize and balance the region’s unreliable grid.




					www.tesla.com


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## SpaceBus (Sep 3, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> They should focus on reliable charging infrastructure.  But Tesla is really uniquely positioned with their power products. Mega Batteries, residential batteries, solar, and cars to enter the utility space.


I'm sure legacy MFGs will get into at least the residential energy market, just like Tesla is doing. It only makes sense.


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## begreen (Sep 3, 2022)

SpaceBus said:


> I'm sure legacy MFGs will get into at least the residential energy market, just like Tesla is doing. It only makes sense.


Some are already there or at least, they are supplying the battery packs inside.


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## SpaceBus (Sep 3, 2022)

These massive corporations can use their R&D budgets to do anything. The big oil companies are taking money from governments to research renewables, because they know that they can spend their profits on anything and go in a totally different direction, like Siemens switching from Zyklon to electronics.


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## woodgeek (Sep 3, 2022)

SpaceBus said:


> I'm pretty certain all the hand wringing over EV range and "the grid" are just propaganda from those who profit by keeping fossil fueled vehicles on the road. I get that Americans want to have the ability to go on a long road trip at the drop of a hat, but even in a rural area most could live with 150-300 miles of actual range on the vehicle. You could easily put 70+ miles a day on a car here driving to work, but that's right in line with charging every other day and a 150+ mile range. People may even end up driving an EV more than they would normally drive an ICE due to the significantly lower cost per mile driven. Even my wife's 500 Abarth averaging 38-40 MPG cost $0.14/mile, an EV would crush that. An EV charged with private solar would be almost free to drive.



I am confident that that is the case, but not going to argue it without evidence (which was ultimately found in the case of Tobacco and AGW denial).

Its the same pattern...

First, Solar won't work,  Then solar is too small.  Then Solar doesn't work at night (and batteries suck).  Then solar is bad for the environment.  Then not enough minerals to make the required PV panels.  Then finally solar will break 'the grid'.

Except now it's EV's don't work.  Then there are very few EVs sold.  Then EVs don't work for road trips (and DCFC suck).  Then EVs are bad for the environment.  Then not enough minerals to make the required EVs.  And now EVs will break the grid.

Someone is getting paid to push this chit.  I'd suspect the same law firms that pushed the Tobacco and AGW denial (that were the same law firms BTW).


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## ericm979 (Sep 3, 2022)

Some of the same scientists who were paid by the tobacco industry to cast doubt on the dangers of smoking were later paid by the oil industry to cast doubt on climate change. They're probably now also casting doubt on solar power and electric cars as you describe. The techniques used are the same.

The tobacco and climate change part is documented in this book: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7799004-merchants-of-doubt

It's a depressing read.


----------



## SpaceBus (Sep 3, 2022)

ericm979 said:


> Some of the same scientists who were paid by the tobacco industry to cast doubt on the dangers of smoking were later paid by the oil industry to cast doubt on climate change. They're probably now also casting doubt on solar power and electric cars as you describe. The techniques used are the same.
> 
> The tobacco and climate change part is documented in this book: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7799004-merchants-of-doubt
> 
> It's a depressing read.


If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck...
Unbelievable that anyone believes these corporations when they all literally use the same people to spread lies .


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## peakbagger (Sep 4, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> But if you are a power supplier on the spot market that’s where the premium prices are paid and if you have idle grid connected capacity that you manage through your network it’s possible.  You are correct they really just want to sell and be be done but at some point they will have considerable grid connected capacity that is already on their network.


I have a Tesla 1.6 MWh battery sitting in Mass installed as part of a project. Its primary purpose is to charge up with excess power from a natural gas generator supplying an industrial plant. A firm located remotely from the site controls it to discharge into the grid when the utility tells them that there is a short term need for more power in the area. It can put out 500 KW of power into the grid for 3 hours although its biggest demand is for short term events. It does not not replace the grid it just gives it a "push" when it needs help. This saves having to put on "dirty" generation like a peaker plant which typically is a jet engine generator that runs on jet fuel.  peaker plant is designed to start up quick and put out a lot of power in small space be most of the energy going into it comes out as heat which goes up the stack. Along with the heat is lots of CO2 so if you look at the CO2 produced per KW its a high value.

The natural gas generator we are using for the factory is connected to a heat recovery system that collects heat from the engine radiator, the oil cooler, the turbocharger air and the engine exhaust to make steam and hot water so the factory does not have to run a boiler to make this steam and hot water. So if you add up the amount of natural gas and CO2 produced to make the combination of electric power and heat its far less than a generator and a boiler doing it separately. The combined efficiency is in about 65%. If the factory had more use for warm water we could squeeze out more.  Its a balancing act at the factory, sometimes they need more heat and less power so we can charge up the battery with the extra power or if they need more power and less heat we can pull power from the battery (or the grid if the price is power is cheap). This allows up to waste less fuel.

By the way, new peaker plants in CA are being built in CA to back up the grid and they are being installed with big battery banks. For short term grid events they just discharge the batteries and may not even start up the jets. Only when the batteries start to run down in capacity do they start the jet for long term power issues. Normally the battery recharges off the grid once the demand drops. Those batteries just sit there normally so why not replace them with a bunch of small batteries sitting in cars in driveways and parking lots?. Obviously not all of those car batteries are available all the time but some percentage are at any given moment. The current problem is controlling all these individual car batteries and getting them to put power into the grid is a work in progress. Much of the grid is designed to go one way, from a power station to user, if a user tries to put power back into the grid, the grid is not set up to take it and various safety systems have to researched and then up graded in the grid before it can happen. The grid is arguably the most complex machine on the planet, there is not just one generator and one set of wires, there are numerous generators and wires and what wires are in use in any given moment change for every user.  Some of the grid is still running on technology left over from when the grid was originally built more than 100 years ago so upgrading it takes a long time and money.

Money spent on batteries and grid upgrade for batteries is money not spent on new power plants, new gas lines and new gas wells. Lots of middleman get cut out the picture and lots of money gets lost, some people make a lot of money on the new tech and lots loose on the old. Lots of stranded infrastructure and the opportunities shift, new tech generally requires educated skilled workers to implement and the folks drilling oil and gas wells or working in coal mines may not be interested or able to get retrained and relocate to where the demand is. Thus, there is a large, entrenched industry that would rather not a new grid emerges, they would rather keep the status quo so they invest some of their profits in keeping the status quo. PR firms are hired, and they come up with campaigns to support the companies who paid them. They do things like making sure that news headlines like the recent one asking "EV owners in CA to avoid charging their batteries *during  certain peak periods* labor day weekend" to "EV owners in CA to avoid charging their batteries labor day weekend" and then inserting commentary below the edited headline supporting their campaign that EVs are bad and fossil power is good. Most people probably didnt even seem to notice the removal of "during certain peak periods" but that the PR folks use it to their advantage. Its the big lie concept so well known of late, keep saying the same lie enough times and at least subconsciously, everyone calls in  question if the lie has to be true as they have heard it so often.  There are plenty of facebook, twitter and tik tok bots available to rent to amplify any lie someone is willing to pay for.  Do it right and the people reading this stuff comes to believe that this is their own opinion because its been worded in way that makes it look like it lines up with their interests. Look how successful Qanon has been putting out outrageous lies and some folks believe it as it lines up with their dystopian view of the world.


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## Rusty18 (Sep 4, 2022)

So 10 years ago or so US Well Service was running their fracturing equipment off of electric (they were working for Antero in the Marcellus play in wv at that time).  Don’t have the pics to prove it or any idea of specs on the electrical equipment but they had natural gas fired generators on the edge of the well pad that fed trailer mounted transformers then feeders out to the various pieces of equipment.  The pumps normally had v16 Cummins or v12 Detroit’s on them and normally had 20 of them tied together for a frac.  (We could easily burn 2000 gal of diesel an hour but dang it sounded good)
Granted they weren’t using batteries and they had some kinks to work out in the beginning but USWS smoked everyone else on pricing so we are all gone and they are still in business. 

99% of the pump jacks and compressors run on electric motors.
I’ll guarantee all the equipment in the refineries run on electric and have for at least 70 years. 

I think something else to consider is the vast majority of consumers.  It seems like people on here have a pretty good idea of how their vehicle works.  I’d argue the average person who buys a car today can’t even pop the hood let alone care what makes it go...but that is a rabbit hole on its own.

Disclaimer I’ve got oil and gas business in my blood going back over 100 years and never would have thought anything would replace it.  But I pay the bills working as an instrumentation/electrical tech.  Starved out chasing drilling rigs about 6 years back.  

My $0.02


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## woodgeek (Sep 4, 2022)

Came across this site that computed EV CO2 emissions by zipcode....






						Beyond Tailpipe Emissions: Results
					

This calculator allows you to estimate the total GHG emissions that would be associated with operating an electric vehicle or plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, including GHG emissions from the production and distribution of electricity used to power the vehicle.




					www.fueleconomy.gov
				




It suggests I emit 90g CO2/mile versus 410g CO2/mile for an average ICE car.  NOTE: this is only the emissions for propulsion, not manufacturing.

You can put in the EV of your choice and your zipcode.

-----------------------

Drilling in, it also reports the emissions of my local grid, RFC-East:









						Power Profiler | US EPA
					

This tool allows users to enter in their zip code and compare their local air emission rates for electricity against the national average, as well as the air emission impact of your electricity use.




					www.epa.gov
				




Which is 50% nat gas, 36% nukes, 8% coal with few renewables.  Makes sense with the large amount of fracked gas and legacy nukes in PA.  Given that nukes are not throttled, I expect my overnight baseload is even higher nuke fraction, and so I'm even lower emissions than 90g/mile.

You can check out your own grid.


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## peakbagger (Sep 4, 2022)

Rusty18 said:


> So 10 years ago or so US Well Service was running their fracturing equipment off of electric (they were working for Antero in the Marcellus play in wv at that time).  Don’t have the pics to prove it or any idea of specs on the electrical equipment but they had natural gas fired generators on the edge of the well pad that fed trailer mounted transformers then feeders out to the various pieces of equipment.  The pumps normally had v16 Cummins or v12 Detroit’s on them and normally had 20 of them tied together for a frac.  (We could easily burn 2000 gal of diesel an hour but dang it sounded good)
> Granted they weren’t using batteries and they had some kinks to work out in the beginning but USWS smoked everyone else on pricing so we are all gone and they are still in business.
> 
> 99% of the pump jacks and compressors run on electric motors.
> ...


I was looking at some tech in place of batteries that used ultra capacitors which was developed for oil and gas. Apparently the load demand at a drill site varies considerably, with no storage on site the owners have to idle lots of diesels just in case there is a load surge. This tech charged up a bank of capacitors to cover the surges and that meant they could have far fewer diesels idling. It was getting rolled out when the last gas drilling surge collapsed. Not sure if they survived the big drop in drilling.


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## EbS-P (Sep 4, 2022)

I would think that EV manufacturers would have to change battery warranty if a significant percentage of users were drawing down a significant charge on a regular basis.  Technology may improve and they can keep the current warranty but if used less than 20 days a year it would be insignificant


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## peakbagger (Sep 4, 2022)

Lithium batterys also deteriorate with age. They could be sitting in a warehouse not being used and they will lose capacity. Note even in warehouse most big grid type batteries have to be connected to power on occasion as the have internal loads to run the BMS and heating and cooling systems if they get out of operating range.


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## Ashful (Sep 4, 2022)

SpaceBus said:


> If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck...


… it’s a witch?


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## SpaceBus (Sep 4, 2022)

Ashful said:


> … it’s a witch?
> 
> View attachment 298646


This is the best possible response.







EVs are the witch for anyone that is confused.


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## begreen (Sep 6, 2022)

Massachusetts just joined in banning gas or diesel ICE car sales in 2035.


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## EbS-P (Sep 6, 2022)

begreen said:


> Massachusetts just joined in banning gas or diesel ICE car sales in 2035.


If it’s like CA’s and allows plug in hybrid I think it’s possible.  Toyota make sitting pretty.  Does anyone also have a plug-in hybrid for the large suv or 1/2 ton truck?


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## SpaceBus (Sep 6, 2022)

Volvo is testing a lot of PHEV and BEV stuff for industrial use. There's a test quarry somewhere in Europe with a bunch of prototypes and it is saving huge amounts of carbon and money.


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## woodgeek (Sep 6, 2022)

2035 is about 3 generations of EV from now.  I wouldn't want to predict what BEV offerings are available then.

Also, the nature of these things is usually to be either (1) unnecessary by the time they occur or (2) delayed when they arrive if the bite is too hard.

This whole thing is 'signaling' and nothing more.  Wake me up in 2034.


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## SpaceBus (Sep 6, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> 2035 is about 3 generations of EV from now.  I wouldn't want to predict what BEV offerings are available then.
> 
> Also, the nature of these things is usually to be either (1) unnecessary by the time they occur or (2) delayed when they arrive if the bite is too hard.
> 
> This whole thing is 'signaling' and nothing more.  Wake me up in 2034.


The adoption curve very clearly outpaces all of the mandates, signaling indeed. Perhaps these states are trying to capitalize on the new legislation that only rewards domestically produced EV/PHEV and draw manufacturing back to their states.


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## begreen (Sep 6, 2022)

I didn't see any provision for hybrids in the article, but they may be in the actual act. The incentive for EV purchasing gets a hefty boost on top of the Federal tax credit too. 

I'll post a link to the article in a separate thread because it affects a lot more than just cars.


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## begreen (Sep 7, 2022)

The AP reports that 17 other states are considering similar mandates.  WA, MA, NY, VT & OR most likely will adopt the CA law, but the decision is harder for some other states.








						17 states weigh adopting California's electric car mandate
					

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — Seventeen states with vehicle emission standards tied to rules established in California face weighty decisions on whether to follow that state's strictest-in-the nation new rules  that require all new cars, pickups and SUVs to be electric or hydrogen powered  by 2035.




					apnews.com


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## EbS-P (Sep 7, 2022)

And the other colored states??   I just don’t see our state legislature doing anything. The IRA money given to states for incentives will be interesting how that is distributed and managed.  

May the auto Industry leads the green revolution but I think they make too much money on big V8 trucks.


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## woodgeek (Sep 7, 2022)

Well, the heat wave in California is over...  and I saw this:









						California Leaders Credit Cellphone Alert for Sudden Conservation
					

The jarring message warned millions of residents that blackouts could occur without immediate action.




					www.nytimes.com
				




Apparently, the utility developed an 'amber alert' type notification that could blast out to everyone's cell-phone.   They used it for the first time, and it worked.  Statewide demand dropped by 2.6 Gigawatts over the next 20-40 minutes, avoiding a blackout.

While useful, they don't plan on using this very often... convinced that people will start to ignore it if they try.


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## begreen (Sep 7, 2022)

The heatwave is not over, more to come. It's expected to cool down a little, but it is still very hot. We may get up to 90 by the weekend here. Wildfires are the big concern now. 








						California manages unprecedented power demand as historic heat wave in West enters 4th day
					

A record September heat wave is continuing to broil parts of the West and Southwest as parts of California approach 116 degrees with little relief in sight.




					www.foxweather.com
				











						Scariest part of the NorCal heat wave could be yet to come
					

A prolonged heat wave in Northern California sucked the last bits of moisture from trees,...




					www.sfgate.com


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## EbS-P (Sep 8, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> Well, the heat wave in California is over...  and I saw this:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I don’t see why load interruption devices are not more common.  Easy to install. Once the network is established the utility can self manage load with local precision.  I signed up as soon as it was available.


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## SpaceBus (Sep 8, 2022)

We have gotten fairly lucky with mold in our garden, a serious forest fire season in North America would be devastating. Earlier this year Siberia was on track to have the worst fire season possibly ever.


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## begreen (Sep 8, 2022)

SpaceBus said:


> We have gotten fairly lucky with mold in our garden, a serious forest fire season in North America would be devastating. Earlier this year Siberia was on track to have the worst fire season possibly ever.


It's definitely a big concern for the west. We are tinder dry and some really big fires have broken out in hard to manage locations.
Siberian wildfires were really bad last year too. The area is so vast and wild that some fires are very hard to access.


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## SpaceBus (Sep 8, 2022)

begreen said:


> It's definitely a big concern for the west. We are tinder dry and some really big fires have broken out in hard to manage locations.
> Siberian wildfires were really bad last year too. The area is so vast and wild that some fires are very hard to access.


It's also not just forests, but peat and grassland fires as well. Even though we are so far away, the smoke still made it out here last year. Between the reduction in sunlight and the spores in the smoke, our garden was hit hard. This year has been a struggle with the powdery mildew and our squash. Normally the summers here are dry with a rain shower once or twice a week, but we had many weeks with days long fog and mist. Which is in itself not unusual, during the spring and fall.


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## Ashful (Sep 15, 2022)

Well, on the plus side... if you're in the middle of a vasectomy when the power goes out, you might be happy to be driving a BEV.









						Rivian Electric Pickup Powers Vasectomy During Texas Outage
					

A urologist plugged into the Rivian to unplug his patient's... you know.




					www.motortrend.com


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## begreen (Sep 17, 2022)

It's interesting to note that at least in WA state, plug-in hybrids will still be allowed to be sold after 2035 as long as they have at least a 50 mile range on the battery. Looks like our Volt qualifies though it's unlikely many will be around by then. Maybe I won't be either.








						Tackling the 2035 electric vehicle conundrum
					

Soundside producer Jason Burrows sits down with host Libby Denkmann to discuss the pros and cons of moving away from gas powered vehicles by 2035.




					kuow.org


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## Wisdomoak159#19 (Nov 14, 2022)

My personal opinion on this differs from most. Looks up pictures of battery mines. They look like a nuke went off. I'm not against battery but I am against a mandate. It will cripple this country. The poor will get poorer as they can't afford to buy a bev. So how do they get to work? Our electrical grid cannot handle all this added strain. There's rolling blackouts in alot of the more "green" places as it is. These mandates cripple our economy and drive up prices for all. I think the corre t solution is to continue to develop more clean ways. Maybe event to reward company's that look into this. But never to mandate it. We need a plethora of energy options to keep our country strong. They come for your ICE now. How long before they come for your woodstove? The amount of control we have let our government have saddens me and makes me feel sick.


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## Ashful (Nov 14, 2022)

Wisdomoak159#19 said:


> The amount of control we have let our government have saddens me and makes me feel sick.


I'll agree with this last sentiment, but don't really see it applying here.  Who is going to come for your ICE?  Who is coming for your wood stove?  When have you ever seen an example of our government coming and taking away any nearly-ubiquitous technology?

I also oppose mandates, but even in cases where they have been employed, it is typically only toward the purchase of a new item, not the maintenance of what you already own.

Batteries certainly have their problems, everything does.  But any tech that resolves more acute problems than it resolves, generally becomes the way to go.  Nothing is perfect, everything is a compromise, any engineer can tell you that.

You do have a valid point with regard to the grid, not with regard to BEV charging so much, but with regard to long-haul distribution.  BEV charging can occur mostly overnight, managed by incentives and not mandates, to actually improve our peak/demand loading on generation.  But whereas our dino-powered generation plants are located more closely to high-density population centers, minimizing long-haul issues, many new green plants (eg. wind, hydro) will need to be located where the resource is abundant.  This is nearly never near maximum demand.

This will require more and larger long-haul transmission lines, which our current laws do not favor.  Simply put, good luck getting private property owners and local governments in Wyoming to approve the installation of transmission lines, so that folks in California can run their air conditioning.  This is where the mandates I truly fear may come, although any attempt to push this thru may come at great political expense to one party.


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## woodgeek (Nov 14, 2022)

Wisdomoak159#19 said:


> My personal opinion on this differs from most. Looks up pictures of battery mines. They look like a nuke went off. I'm not against battery but I am against a mandate. It will cripple this country. The poor will get poorer as they can't afford to buy a bev. So how do they get to work? Our electrical grid cannot handle all this added strain. There's rolling blackouts in alot of the more "green" places as it is. These mandates cripple our economy and drive up prices for all. I think the corre t solution is to continue to develop more clean ways. Maybe event to reward company's that look into this. But never to mandate it. We need a plethora of energy options to keep our country strong. They come for your ICE now. How long before they come for your woodstove? The amount of control we have let our government have saddens me and makes me feel sick.


I will echo @Ashful here and ask, where are these mandates for BEVs?  I haven't seen any.  A few cities and a couple states have said they will ban NEW ICE vehicle sales in 2035 or something. Even those won't keep you from buying them out of state and moving them in.  Even the most rosy predictions of EV adoption have BEVs reaching 50% of new car sales in the US in 2028... and that curve implies that BEVs will make up only 20-25% of cars on the road by 2032 at most.

The transition will be SLOW.  People will be driving ICE cars well in the 2040s, a generation from now.

As for cost?  Every engineering analysis I have seen suggests that long-range, fast charging BEVs will be CHEAPER to buy AND to operate than ICE vehicles.  They contain a lot fewer moving parts, and are faster to assemble and are much cheaper to maintain.

Those batteries?  Their cost is falling exponentially, and is expected (based upon analyses with many other technologies) to fall to a small  multiple (1.x) of the cost of the raw materials in them.  The cost of those raw materials?   Those are available in natural deposits all around the world in sufficient amounts, and so will (once they are developed) have prices comparable to historical levels... which were cheap.  The projected price of batteries in a decade... cheap enough to make a long range BEV cheaper than a comparable ICE vehicle to buy.  Many of them are already cheaper on a total cost of ownership, TCO, basis.

The car makers are starting the transition with their luxury models that are the highest profit, to customers that want higher performance and the latest tech.  That does not mean that EVs are inherently expensive.  The 2022 Chevy Bolt I drive cost me the equivalent of $24k MSRP, and I did not get a fed rebate... it will be eligible for one next year, bringing its purchase price down to closer to $20k.  This is already holding down the price of used Bolts, which will also get a rebate in 2023, further reducing their price.

The grid? All those EVs will increase electrical demand by maybe 20% in 2050.  Like increasing it by less that 1% a year, no problemo. And ofc most of that charging is done at low demand periods (like overnight) bc the utility offers a lower rate then, so it doesn't increase peak demand even that much.  One can cherry pick examples of badly managed or corrupt grids, like in California and Mass, and say 'see green power is bad', but then there was the Texas fiasco that actually killed people (and sadly will be likely to do so again, as the problems were not addressed).

There is a lot of misinformation out there these days from a variety of sources...


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## stoveliker (Nov 14, 2022)

I do like a lot of the mandates - they keep me from getting real sickness. 

E.g. the mandate for clinical trials before medication is approved. The mandate for code compliant installations of equipment. The mandate for catalytic converters in cars. The mandate for redundancy in airplanes. The mandate (for the absence of) lead in gasoline. The list goes on. And yes, all these mandates were compromises too.

I don't like all mandates though - I'm not convinced of the benefits of the mandate for ethanol in gasoline. (Other than for corn farmers.) I'm also not convinced of the motorcycle helmet mandate. No one else gets hurt by not wearing one. In fact, healthcare costs seem to go down not wearing one.


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## Wisdomoak159#19 (Nov 14, 2022)

Of course bevs have their place. I think we should use all forms of energy. Wind water nuke coal oil battery hydrogen. I think the more diverse the better. I think the government. Is pushing it to fast. (And not because they care about environment). It makes the government money. More dependence on the grid gives them more control. I would be willing to bet they will try to ban burning wood in the next 50 yrs. Hope I'm wrong


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## SpaceBus (Nov 14, 2022)

Wisdomoak159#19 said:


> Of course bevs have their place. I think we should use all forms of energy. Wind water nuke coal oil battery hydrogen. I think the more diverse the better. I think the government. Is pushing it to fast. (And not because they care about environment). It makes the government money. More dependence on the grid gives them more control. I would be willing to bet they will try to ban burning wood in the next 50 yrs. Hope I'm wrong


The government is not forcing anything, the market has already spoken. Fossil fuels are a dying asset and the big corporations are going to squeeze every last dime out of it before moving onto greener pastures.


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## Wisdomoak159#19 (Nov 14, 2022)

SpaceBus said:


> The government is not forcing anything, the market has already spoken. Fossil fuels are a dying asset and the big corporations are going to squeeze every last dime out of it before moving onto greener pastures.


Maybe the market has spoken in certain demographics?I personally know only 1 person with a bev. I've never seen one in my town of 800 people. I'd be willing to bet less than 1% of the people I know would want bev or afford one for thar matter. I'm not against the technology. It's great if it truly pollute less. I just think diversity wins when it comes to energy and no 1 type should be forced or outlawed or mandated


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## woodgeek (Nov 14, 2022)

Wisdomoak159#19 said:


> Maybe the market has spoken in certain demographics?I personally know only 1 person with a bev. I've never seen one in my town of 800 people. I'd be willing to bet less than 1% of the people I know would want bev or afford one for thar matter. I'm not against the technology. It's great if it truly pollute less. I just think diversity wins when it comes to energy and no 1 type should be forced or outlawed or mandated


Adoption is very uneven by region.  Nationwide, BEVs are 5% of new light vehicles in the US in 2022.  In California, that figure is 18% in 2022.






						Current EV registrations in the US: How does your state stack up and who grew the most YOY?
					

A detailed list breaking down the most recent data involving registrations of battery EVs in the US, compared by side-by-side by state.




					electrek.co
				




In my area, I see BEVs everywhere here in the Philly suburbs.  Mostly Teslas, but a lot of other makes too.  Like, if I stop at a busy light, I will see more than one Tesla pretty much every single time.  I will often find a Tesla in front of me AND behind me.   I also see the occasional Bolt, Ford Mach-E, etc.   My town is pretty wealthy, and that partly explains it.

Its not all politics... when I was in Florida this summer, I also saw BEVs everywhere.  The link above shows BEVs are more popular in Texas and Florida than in NY or Mass (and Pennsylvania).  This is probably a cold weather penalty.

Diversity of tech and energy supply is great... but in the end people will buy what is cheapest.  The legacy makers are switching bc they can see the handwriting on the wall... that BEVs will be the cheapest/best car tech in a few years, and they want to survive.

I think the US govt is trying to incentivize domestic production and supply chains for BEVs, so that we will continue to have a domestic car manufacturing business. They want the contribution to GDP and the manufacturing jobs.  The climate benefits are also a no-brainer.


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## EbS-P (Nov 14, 2022)

Wisdomoak159#19 said:


> Of course bevs have their place. I think we should use all forms of energy. Wind water nuke coal oil battery hydrogen. I think the more diverse the better. I think the government. Is pushing it to fast. (And not because they care about environment). It makes the government money. More dependence on the grid gives them more control. I would be willing to bet they will try to ban burning wood in the next 50 yrs. Hope I'm wrong


We should all do anything in our power to no be subservient to OPEC. The government has some regulatory powers over the grid but mostly it’s a private corporations.  Remember the Colonial Pipe line fiasco.  Diversification is key!  As for wood stoves, those decisions now are local/state decisions. If you live somewhere where air quality is not an issue now I don’t see wood stoves as being an issue in 50 years.


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## begreen (Nov 14, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> I think the US govt is trying to incentivize domestic production and supply chains for BEVs, so that we will continue to have a domestic car manufacturing business. They want the contribution to GDP and the manufacturing jobs. The climate benefits are also a no-brainer.


The govt. is also subsidizing charging infrastructure which is a key component of wider adoption.


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## Ashful (Nov 15, 2022)

begreen said:


> The govt. is also subsidizing charging infrastructure which is a key component of wider adoption.


Charging infrastructure is the number one complaint I hear from friends with BEV's.  It's been a few months now, maybe things have improved over this last year, but it seemed only Tesla had any level of an actually-functional charging network, from what I was hearing at the beginning of this year.  More often than not, it seemed the few non-Tesla stations that could be found had a relatively low probability of being in good working order, when you arrived.

I mention this, because like woodgeek, the vast majority of EV's I see on the road here are indeed Teslas.  I do see an occasional Mustang Mach-E, Bolt or Volt.  But probably more than 8/10 BEV's I see on the road are Tesla, with all remaining brands combined sharing a less than 20% share of that market, meaning probably less than 5% each by my unscientific casual observance.  I have heard at least a few Tesla owners suggest they wanted to consider other brands, but the charging network essentially forced them to give Tesla top consideration.


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## EbS-P (Nov 15, 2022)

Ashful said:


> Charging infrastructure is the number one complaint I hear from friends with BEV's.  It's been a few months now, maybe things have improved over this last year, but it seemed only Tesla had any level of an actually-functional charging network, from what I was hearing at the beginning of this year.  More often than not, it seemed the few non-Tesla stations that could be found had a relatively low probability of being in good working order, when you arrived.
> 
> I mention this, because like woodgeek, the vast majority of EV's I see on the road here are indeed Teslas.  I do see an occasional Mustang Mach-E, Bolt or Volt.  But probably more than 8/10 BEV's I see on the road are Tesla, with all remaining brands combined sharing a less than 20% share of that market, meaning probably less than 5% each by my unscientific casual observance.  I have heard at least a few Tesla owners suggest they wanted to consider other brands, but the charging network essentially forced them to give Tesla top consideration.


If/when Tesla opens up their network to everyone I wonder what they will do.   Make long lines I’m guessing.


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## stoveliker (Nov 15, 2022)

You'll hear Tesla owners scream. Or they "reserve" a few charging spots for Tesla owners whereas the rest of the common folks stand in line. I.e. they have then two charging networks, one to service their own, and one for the rest of the people.


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## EbS-P (Nov 15, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> You'll hear Tesla owners scream. Or they "reserve" a few charging spots for Tesla owners whereas the rest of the common folks stand in line. I.e. they have then two charging networks, one to service their own, and one for the rest of the people.


They better And it would be nice if I didn’t have even see the other BEVs when I pull up.   All kidding aside the fact there is not a standard charging plug is silly.  I mean if the EU can mandate single plug types for phones…..


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## Ashful (Nov 15, 2022)

EbS-P said:


> They better And it would be nice if I didn’t have even see the other BEVs when I pull up.   All kidding aside the fact there is not a standard charging plug is silly.  I mean if the EU can mandate single plug types for phones…..


Imagine if gas pumps only fit one particular brand of car.


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## woodgeek (Nov 15, 2022)

Ashful said:


> Charging infrastructure is the number one complaint I hear from friends with BEV's.  It's been a few months now, maybe things have improved over this last year, but it seemed only Tesla had any level of an actually-functional charging network, from what I was hearing at the beginning of this year.  More often than not, it seemed the few non-Tesla stations that could be found had a relatively low probability of being in good working order, when you arrived.



I have had no such problem.  The DCFCs I have found road-tripping have all had 4+ stalls, often 10 or more, and maybe fewer than 1 in 4 out of commission.  Electrify America, usually next to a Mall, a strip mall or a Walmart.

I spend 3-5 minutes looking at apps before I leave the house on a roadtrip.  Big whoop.

I was surprised that there aren't any DCFCs in New Jersey south of AC (major shore destinations), and there is only 1 on Cape Cod (in Hyannis).   I ended up doing L1/L2 in both places on vacation.

There is more FUD out there than instruction.  Its a public education thing.  I have heard lots of news stories and articles about how NOT to DCFC charge an EV, and never one about how to find them!  Sometimes PlugShare gets mentioned, but it omits a bunch of DCFCs (bc it got bought by one of the competing networks), and no one ever mentions ABRP.

One issue is that car salesmen don't drive EVs, and wouldn't know how to find a DCFC if their life depended on it.  They usually ask ME how I am going to get home, LOL.  Want to sell some EVs?  Sell them at a discount to your salesmen!


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## Ashful (Nov 15, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> I have had no such problem.  The DCFCs I have found road-tripping have all had 4+ stalls, often 10 or more, and maybe fewer than 1 in 4 out of commission.  Electrify America, usually next to a Mall, a strip mall or a Walmart.


There was one person who posted here in the last 6-12 months, talking about a road trip, where they had this issue with mapping out charging locations, only to find some of they critically not functional.  If it wasn't you or EbS-P, then I'd guess it must have been jebatty.  My memory for who said what isn't great, but I do recall it being mentioned here.

Another case was a coworker who went from a Volt to a Bolt to a Mach-E.  He's been all-in with BEV's since the Volt was first released, and he's had a few such incidents in long-distance travel with them.  Maybe not enough to matter in the long run, but definitely enough of an issue that I've heard more than one person echo the sentiment that they went Tesla over another brand, solely for the better access to a charging network.



woodgeek said:


> There is more FUD out there than instruction...


Okay, I can normally reason my way thru your acronyms, but you got me with this one.  F'ed Up Disinformation?


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## EbS-P (Nov 15, 2022)

What we are not taking about yet is how and where all these BEVs will be serviced.  Name a local shop that will work on 10-15 year old hybrid battery. I certainly can’t.  Will be locked into dealer only service for a decade or two like Tesla.  Chargers are easy and relatively cheap to install with a predictable revenue stream /cost structure.  Service centers/auto shops not so much.


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## woodgeek (Nov 15, 2022)

Ashful said:


> There was one person who posted here in the last 6-12 months, talking about a road trip, where they had this issue with mapping out charging locations, only to find some of they critically not functional.  If it wasn't you or EbS-P, then I'd guess it must have been jebatty.  My memory for who said what isn't great, but I do recall it being mentioned here.
> 
> Another case was a coworker who went from a Volt to a Bolt to a Mach-E.  He's been all-in with BEV's since the Volt was first released, and he's had a few such incidents in long-distance travel with them.  Maybe not enough to matter in the long run, but definitely enough of an issue that I've heard more than one person echo the sentiment that they went Tesla over another brand, solely for the better access to a charging network.
> 
> ...








						Fear, uncertainty, and doubt - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




People kinda miss the point.  I posted on a different forum what apps I used to find DCFC (ABRP), and how I used a different app to check that they were working (EA). And a third app (Apple Maps) to do the navigation.  And everyone said, 'Ok, that's it!  If I need three apps to road-trip, I will just buy a Tesla!' 

All the stories in the press (that get repeated on social media) are folks using a dumb app to find DCFCs, or even L2's, looking for EV charging signs on the interstate, or folks putting a bike rack AND a car top bag on their car and then wondering why it got 30% less range than expected and not reaching the DCFC they expected to reach with 10% left in the tank. 

IOW, use the right app, leave some margin, and its never a problem...  But if you do dumb stuff and get stuck, well, call the New York Times, you are going to be famous!


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## stoveliker (Nov 15, 2022)

I smell a business opportunity - re: 3 apps needed...


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## Ashful (Nov 15, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> I smell a business opportunity - re: 3 apps needed...


I was just thinking the same.  Bezos should be getting his Waze crew on rolling this functionality all into that app, lest some entrepreneurial young soul beat him to the punch.


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## Ashful (Nov 15, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> IOW, use the right app, leave some margin, and its never a problem...  But if you do dumb stuff and get stuck, well, call the New York Times, you are going to be famous!


Disorganized and ignorant people need cars, too.  Maybe they're the same people presently buying sub-200hp SUV's, discussed today in another thread.

Most people just don't want to be bothered to plan, so there will be a painful learning curve.  No surprises, there.


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## begreen (Nov 15, 2022)

Ashful said:


> I was just thinking the same.  Bezos should be getting his Waze crew on rolling this functionality all into that app, lest some entrepreneurial young soul beat him to the punch.


It was supposed to show up in 2022 but I don't see it. They should have it at the top level as an alternate to Gas Stations.


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## EbS-P (Nov 15, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> I smell a business opportunity - re: 3 apps needed...


I can’t even add a waypoint or do a round trip with Teslas navigation


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## woodgeek (Nov 15, 2022)

stoveliker said:


> I smell a business opportunity - re: 3 apps needed...


The problem is not the app... its the networks behind the apps.  ABRP is the best route planner, and has all the DCFCs.  BUT, they want me to just use their embedded navigation, and be a one stop shop.  But I like the routing and real time traffic in AppleMaps better (which requires a large user base).  And then PlugShare, which sucks as a route planner, used to have all the chargers and lists amenities/food around them, but got bought by a DCFC network owner (EVGo?)... so they don't list some of their competitors DCFCs!  And while ABRP lists all the DCFCs, they don't own them, say EA does.  And EA wants me to use their app for route planning and navigation, so they don't share their real-time charger status with other places... to force me to their app to check if their station is online.

Basically, everyone is trying to make a buck by trying to be an all in one solution, but is then refusing to share all their data with others (or to delist their DCFCs), and none of them have a big enough user base to offer a nav as good as AppleMaps or Google.

Capitalism at its finest.

Oh, and then there are the legacy makers.  Chevy has an EV route planner (and navigation) built into their 'MyChevy' app.  That interfaces seamlessly with the car (so it knows things like state of charge, temp, etc useful for reliable route planning).  But then they decided to bundle that feature with some other stuff and charge $40/mo for the bundle.  On a car I already bought.  No thanks.  They can FRO... and I will use ABRP and AppleMaps.    And THIS is probably why the salesman doesn't tell me how to use ABRP... he has been instructed to sell me on the $40/mo route planning app (that other users say doesn't work very well anyway).

What will happen is that Apple and Google will eventually either buy ABRP, or more likely duplicate their database (the number of DCFCs is not that large).  IOW, at some point Apple/Google Maps will just sprout a 'route EV' button, and we'll be done, and all these other things will go belly up.  They haven't done that yet, given the small number of users.

Bottom line: the DCFC hardware is actually pretty OK, but finding one and its current status is Balkanized.  Bc of capitalism.  This doesn't strand you in the middle of nowhere... but it means you have to check a few different apps.  And no one without an EV (e.g. a journalist) can be bothered, so they just say something nebulous like the hardware is non-existent, or broken, or inadequate.  While its actually sitting right there waiting for you to plug in, if you have the patience to find it and get it going!


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## woodgeek (Nov 15, 2022)

Ashful said:


> Disorganized and ignorant people need cars, too.  Maybe they're the same people presently buying sub-200hp SUV's, discussed today in another thread.
> 
> Most people just don't want to be bothered to plan, so there will be a painful learning curve.  No surprises, there.



Yeah... and oftentimes those people run out gas.  Except that that doesn't become national news every time it happens.  And then every story is about how gas cars don't go far enough and there aren't enough gas stations...


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## stoveliker (Nov 15, 2022)

You just made the case for that app.
It just needs to provide enough of a mfg incentive ($) to allow access to what that particular car (network) needs.

$40 a month is a good incentive for customers to make the profit on such mfg apps negligible by not buying it and keeping the user base small. And that should help more universal app developers.

At least, that's what I'd hope - not having any formal business training.


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## Ashful (Nov 15, 2022)

woodgeek said:


> Yeah... and oftentimes those people run out gas.  Except that that doesn't become national news every time it happens.  And then every story is about how gas cars don't go far enough and there aren't enough gas stations...


lol... agreed!

At some point, even the far right will realize it's silly to argue against a vehicle you can just plug in when you get home at night, versus having to worry about getting to the gas station on your morning commute.


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## woodgeek (Nov 15, 2022)

The situation is a lot like... streaming services on your TV.  You want to watch a movie, so you check to see if its free on Netflix... if its not, you check if you can buy it on Amazon or Apple.  Or maybe maybe you just Google it first to see who has the content.. and then go to that app.

Same exact issue... and a first world problem.


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## SpaceBus (Nov 15, 2022)

Wisdomoak159#19 said:


> Maybe the market has spoken in certain demographics?I personally know only 1 person with a bev. I've never seen one in my town of 800 people. I'd be willing to bet less than 1% of the people I know would want bev or afford one for thar matter. I'm not against the technology. It's great if it truly pollute less. I just think diversity wins when it comes to energy and no 1 type should be forced or outlawed or mandated


Ah, you are starting to realize that it is not the consumer that dictates the "free market". The government doesn't have to force any energy source, and never has before. Standard Oil convinced the US military to switch to oil from coal, thus everything else followed, no regulations or mandates outside of the military. Fossil fuels are simply becoming unprofitable, regardless of how many people you personally know. The 2035 "mandates" are just virtue signaling, most automakers will have already abandoned fossil fuels by 2035. There will be energy diversity, it just won't include many fossil fuels. Remember, many companies are investigating liquid biofuels as a niche fuel. Porsche would be the most notable company.


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## begreen (Nov 15, 2022)

Ashful said:


> lol... agreed!
> 
> At some point, even the far right will realize it's silly to argue against a vehicle you can just plug in when you get home at night, versus having to worry about getting to the gas station on your morning commute.


Figured that out with our first Volt. I have never publicly charged our 2nd gen Volt.


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